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Tonight, Powell's speech will decide the direction. I bet he will continue to dodge the issue; we'll see the real bottom in October.
This afternoon, 6.4 billion in options expire. The half-hour average price didn't touch 80,000, nor was there a market crash. No crash at options expiry; the real drama is Powell's speech at 10 PM tonight.
My judgment: Powell will most likely continue to dodge.
Wall Street's big banks are pressuring him to be hawkish, but he is used to being ambiguous. Three possibilities tonight:
· Clear hawkish stance (lowest probability): BTC falls below 79,000-78,000.
· Ambiguous dodging (highest probability): positive for BTC, first a drop then a rise.
· Clear framework (medium probability): USD strengthens, BTC corrects but is bullish long-term.
The pace of rate hikes is the key.
The market prices in no hike in September (63.5%), a hike in October (43.4%), and continuation in December. I expect one rate hike either in October or December. October is the rate hike window and also the bottom of the 4-year halving cycle. Historically, 12-18 months after halving is the main bull market wave; the halving in April 2024, peak in October 2025, and October 2026 is very likely the cycle bottom.
If the rate hike lands in October and BTC does not hit a new low, it basically confirms "bad news is fully priced in," combined with the "October bull market start" scenario, making it the best entry point in this cycle.
How Powell speaks tonight is not important; whether there is a hike or a drop in October is what should be watched.
$BTC $ETH
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 At 10 PM tonight, Waller faces the most critical speech of his Federal Reserve chairmanship: inflation has been above target for 5 years, a 44% chance of a rate hike in September, and U.S. debt surpassing 40 trillion — how will he unravel this “impossible trinity”?
At 10 PM Beijing time on August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Waller will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Symposium. This year's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy."
Monetary policy tightening vs. fiscal policy suppressing interest rates — these two forces are "clashing." The market is not really waiting for a hawkish or dovish stance, but for a "policy reaction function" — what data will trigger a rate hike? How will Waller balance inflation, employment, and financial stability?
Since taking office, Waller has adopted a "listen more, speak less" communication style, significantly reducing forward guidance. The Financial Times points out that this style is creating an "uncertainty premium" — investors demand higher risk compensation because they cannot discern the central bank's decision-making framework.
Waller's task tonight is not to tell the market "whether there will be a rate hike in September," but to answer a more fundamental question: what rules is the Federal Reserve playing by now? If no answer is given, the market will price itself — the "uncertainty premium" will be reflected in every transaction.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
$BTC $ETH $SOL 🚨 $LIGHT COULD BE SETTING UP FOR A CRAZY MOVE — I’M IN.
I’ve opened a long on $LIGHT.
Here’s what caught my attention: its circulating market cap is only around $9.3M, while total open interest across the market is already around $23M — more than 2× its spot market cap.
That kind of setup is extremely unusual for a small-cap coin. It reminds me of $TRB, which had a similarly wild derivatives-to-market-cap ratio before making some seriously crazy moves.
#DailyOrbit Why be more bearish on $MSTR rather than $NVDA
Nvidia mainly makes money by selling GPUs and software stacks, with Q2 revenue of 96.2 billion and net profit close to 60 billion, abundant free cash flow, and self-sustaining capabilities. The risk is cyclical fluctuations; the current issue is just about how much profit they make.
MicroStrategy's main software business only generates 500 million annually, which cannot cover nearly 1.7 billion in annual interest expenses. The model is high stock price - financing - buying crypto - crypto price rises - stock price rises further, completely dependent on capital market financing windows.
At this stage, the belief of never selling crypto has been broken, company narrative is damaged, and when the original company business can no longer support dividends, MicroStrategy can only consider selling crypto to save the stock.
Nvidia is a real profit and technology barrier industrial company, while MicroStrategy is a financial leverage tool tied to Bitcoin, fundamentally very different. MicroStrategy's decline will also follow the mainstream $BTC.
Tonight I will continue to lay in long positions. Choice is greater than effort!
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 HYPE spot ETF had continuous net inflows from August 24 to 27, approximately $5.7M, $7.5M, $14.7M, and $24.4M respectively, with inflow amounts increasing daily. The perpetual OI of $HYPE reached about $3.66B, with 24h trading volume at $5.35B. It is clear that after Coinbase integrated Hyperliquid perpetuals into Base last week, the distribution logic has changed.
Hyperliquid no longer relies solely on native users familiar with wallets and cross-chain operations for growth; it has started entering the product layer of super apps. The valuation of $HYPE is also shifting from an on-chain perpetual protocol to a global multi-asset trading network. However, despite strong ETF inflows, app distribution, and OI growth, $HYPE still faces uncertainties regarding team supply, market making, and regulatory access. It is necessary to simultaneously monitor ETF continuity, the new HIP-3 market, protocol revenue, and team-related addresses.The high volatility in the US tech sector is suppressing the Asia-Pacific risk asset premium through the pressure of high semiconductor valuations. The Korean KOSPI index fell 1.8% in a single day to close at 6788.88 points, with SK Hynix dropping over 4%. Even though Nvidia provided guidance of $108 billion for the next quarter and surged nearly 8.7% in a single day, the cooling of AI trading still triggered profit-taking at high levels. If cloud vendors show signs of slowing capital expenditure growth, cross-market risk aversion sentiment will further transmit to macro risk assets. Watch whether the capital expenditure budgets of cloud computing giants continue to be raised and whether South Korea's chip export orders can maintain growth.
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款$BZ
Crude oil has been fluctuating and has already lost nearly 400u. This morning, I added to my position again around 88.3, keeping the base position unchanged. If it drops further, I will reduce the position, doing arbitrage.
From a macro perspective, the Fed's rate cut expectations have been delayed, the dollar remains relatively strong, suppressing commodity valuations. The geopolitical supply cut risk premium is gradually fading, and there has been no substantial supply cut in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the global economic recovery is limited, and crude oil demand lacks strong drivers. Geopolitical factors will only cause pulse rebounds and are unlikely to reverse the overall trend, betting on oil prices to decline.#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
$BTC $ETH Tonight at 10 PM, Waller's debut at Jackson Hole
This is not an ordinary FOMC speech. Waller advocates less is more, but in July, his statement "let the market hike instead of the Fed" directly triggered long-term bond yields to soar to the highest since 2007. Tonight is a crucial battle for him to restore credibility.
Two macro contradictions. On inflation, the Fed has missed the 2% target for 65 consecutive months; July's PCE year-on-year is 3.7%. The market needs to know under what conditions the Fed will act. On fiscal policy, Treasury Secretary Yellen doubled long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion/month to try to suppress yields. Waller's stance will determine the direction of long-term rates.
Corresponding to two paths for BTC. A hawkish tilt would strengthen the dollar, pressuring BTC, with downside targets at 78000, 77500, 75000. A dovish tilt would improve liquidity expectations, combined with ETF net inflows exceeding $2.8 billion for 8 consecutive days, BTC could test above 80700, 81500, 82000.
But counterintuitively, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley believe the market does not simply follow the old logic of "hawkish = decline." If Waller can clearly defend the 2% target and rebuild credibility, long-term bonds might actually rise, which may not be bad for risk assets. The key is not hawkish or dovish, but whether the market can regain trust in the Fed. Tonight at 10 PM, let's see if Waller dares to make his position clear!Macro still holds the key for $BTC and $ETH
Not the last wick. Not the timeline calling $80k “the top.” Not ETH looking ugly under $2,500 for a few hours. The next move is going to come from outside the chart.
Bitcoin is hovering near $80,000. Ethereum is still around $2,500. That range is the waiting room. Both assets already did the hard part of getting back here. Now they need the macro tape to give them permission to stay
Today that permission has a name: Jackson Hole.
Warsh speaks later. That is the event. Treasury yields, inflation, and how the Fed talks about both will decide whether $80k is a base or a fade. If financial conditions ease and energy stops adding inflation pressure, risk can keep the bid. If the message is hawkish BTC and $ETH do not need a new crypto thesis to sell off. They just follow rates.
ETF flows still matter, but they are not the whole story anymore. They can keep buying while the dollar chart goes nowhere if yields jump or regulation hits the headline cycle. September is close. That is when the calendar gets heavier — data, policy talk, SEC noise. The market is already positioning for that, which is why this range feels sticky instead of explosive.
Then there is Hormuz.
People treat geopolitics like a side note until oil moves. If tensions keep energy elevated, inflation stays sticky, and the Fed has less room to look friendly. That combination is poison for risk assets. If energy cools and conditions ease, $BTC can defend $80k and $ETH can stop treating $2,500 like a ceiling.
So the map is clean.
Hold the macro bid: BTC keeps $80k, ETH keeps $2.5k, momentum can continue.
Lose the macro bid: hawkish Fed, hotter inflation, or another oil spike, and volatility comes back fast. Alts get hit first. Majors follow.
This is not the moment to pretend crypto is trading in a vacuum. It is trading the same question as every other risk book:
Does the world get easier from here, or tighter?
Watch the speech. Watch yields. Watch oil. Watch whether ETF flows stay offensive or turn into a floor that only works until the headline hits#BTC pullback after surge, options expiry amplifies key level battle
BTC surged to 80,000 but is struggling to move higher.
What happens next depends on two key factors.
The short squeeze effect is weakening; the gains driven by shorts covering have mostly been absorbed. Next to watch is whether ETF and spot buying can continue to absorb the heavy selling at the top.
The direction of the options game is also crucial. If BTC can hold around 80,000, many put options will expire worthless, forcing buyers and market makers to buy to hedge, which could create upward momentum. If it breaks below 80,000 and puts start being exercised, market makers may be forced to sell, pushing prices down.
Here’s my view.
From 64,000 to 81,000, BTC rose 17,000 points, so short-term overbought conditions are real. The 80,000 level won’t be passed in one go; it’s normal to see consolidation as profits are taken. But ETFs are still flowing in, institutions keep buying, so the overall trend should be fine.
Tomorrow’s options expiry will increase volatility. Short-term longs should be fine, but if it breaks down, the short-term correction trend will intensify. However, with proper stop-loss management, it shouldn’t be a big problem. If you want to be more cautious, wait patiently for the direction to become clear before acting. Let’s watch; volatility won’t be small.
$BTC $ETH Manage your position allocation well to navigate through bull and bear markets.
BTC keeps breaking upward, sucking in liquidity, while altcoins remain stagnant at the bottom. In the liquidity game, holding a full hand of altcoins not only fails to bring the expected excess returns but also causes you significant losses.
How to get out of this predicament? My answer is to manage your position allocation well.
Veteran traders who survive multiple bull and bear cycles in the market definitely use a "core-satellite" strategy for asset allocation.
Lock 80% of your position in BTC as your base to handle all extreme market conditions. This is your ballast and defense tower.
Because Bitcoin tends to rise in the long term, your foundation enjoys the most certain growth dividends in the entire industry. No matter how much altcoins get slashed, your mindset won’t collapse.
The remaining 20% small position is your ammunition for frontline battles.
You can use this portion to chase short-term hot narratives and catch a wave of strong coins. The mission of this fund is to seek high elasticity returns. Once doubled, decisively take profits and feed them back to BTC. Even if you have to cut losses midway, it will never hurt your core strength.
The rougher the waters, the heavier the anchor needed. I believe this anchor can only be BTC. Do you agree? 1. If your capital isn't large (for example, under 10,000), don't always think about going all in. Just catch the main upward wave once a year. Before the market arrives, patience is your strongest weapon. 2. People can never make money beyond what they realize. Before live trading, use simulated trading to train your mindset and courage. Simulated trading allows you to fail unlimited times, but one big mistake in real trading could mean you're out. 3. Remember: good news is bad. If major positive news doesn't come out on the day and opens high the next day, it's best to sell promptly, or you'll easily get stuck. 4. Be cautious during holidays. History has repeatedly proven that reducing or even going short before the holiday is wise; "holidays always fall" is not just empty talk. 5. The essence of medium- to long-term trading is to keep enough cash, buy low when you buy high, and trade on a roll. Don't always think about buying all the way in at once—that's the big players' game, not a dream for retail investors. 6. For short-term trading, only choose coins with active trading volume and large chart volatility. Don't touch less active ones—they waste time and wear down your mindset. 7. If the market is slow and bearish, the rebound will be tough; But if the decline accelerates, the rebound often comes even faster. Timing is crucial. 8. If you make a mistake, admit it and stop your losses immediately. As long as your principal remains, opportunities will always be there—this is the foundation of survival. 9. If you're monitoring short-term trading, always watch the 15-minute candlestick chart. Combined with the KDJ indicator, you can find plenty of gold buy and sell points. 10. There are countless techniques for trading coins; you don't need to master them all. Mastering one or two methods is enough—the key is to master them to the extreme! Each of these ten practical tips is a lesson I earned with real money. LessIn June 2026, Canada's Deep Sky completed North America's first batch of independently verified direct air capture carbon removal deliveries, with buyers including Microsoft and the Royal Bank of Canada. Its Alberta pilot site has a designed annual capture capacity of about 3,000 tons, still very small in scale, but it accomplished an important milestone: companies finally obtained carbon removal products that can be verified, registered, and tracked for storage locations. In the same month, Frontier, involving companies such as Stripe, Google, Shopify, Salesforce, and Anthropic, added $915 million in long-term purchase commitments, bringing the total planned scale to $1.8 billion. Microsoft disclosed that in fiscal year 2025, it signed carbon removal agreements totaling about 45 million tons with 21 global suppliers. It is important to distinguish here: most of the 45 million tons belong to contracts for delivery over many future years and do not mean that this CO2 has already been removed from the atmosphere. The electricity demand driven by AI is pushing up emissions from tech companies, and cleaning up these emissions is beginning to form a new industry chain. From "emitting less" to cleaning up historical emissions Early carbon markets mainly traded emission reduction and avoidance projects, such as forest protection, improving energy efficiency, or replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy. This model has faced many controversies: whether projects really happened because of carbon credits, whether the same forest was double-counted, and whether it might be burned down by wildfires decades later—all could affect credit quality. Carbon removal#财报观察员：AI demand spreads from hardware to software Brothers, the logic of this earnings season has changed.
NVIDIA's revenue doubled and it gave a 70% growth guidance in advance, but its after-hours stock only rose 4 points. Marvell's revenue guidance increased by 37%, exceeding expectations, yet its after-hours stock fell 8%. The market is already fatigued by the "selling shovels to make big money" narrative.
The real rewards are on the software side. CrowdStrike's new ARR surged 51%, with after-hours stock rising over 10%. Salesforce AI product ARR soared 240% year-over-year, with after-hours stock up nearly 13%. Okta's AI products account for 30% of bookings, with after-hours stock up 15%.
The market no longer asks "how many GPUs did you buy," but instead "how many new orders has AI brought you."
There are exceptions; Synopsys had decent performance but acquisitions dragged down profits, and its stock fell 8.6% after earnings. The market no longer treats AI companies equally—only those with orders, cash flow, and conversions deserve high valuations.
Capital is shifting from selling shovels to digging for gold. Hardware earns profits, software expands revenue, and AI investment has moved from stacking computing power to competing on conversion. $NVDA $xMRVL $CRWD #Will Wash's debut at Jackson Hole tonight clarify the policy framework?
Next, Kai will mainly talk about the impact of Wash's debut speech and Kai's own view!
The most important thing tonight is actually: Wash's speech → US Treasury yields → US dollar → risk assets
Especially now that the market itself is waiting for Wash's speech, bonds and exchange rates have already entered a cautious state in advance, with the following main impacts:
1. Wash's stance is clearly dovish, good for US stocks
2. Wash's stance is neutral and ambiguous, US stocks, BTC, and ETH fluctuate
3. Wash's stance is clearly hawkish, negative for US stocks, BTC, and ETH
4. Wash mentions the possibility of rate hikes, short-term pressure is greatest on US stocks, BTC, and ETH
Next, Kai's view: I personally think it is more favorable. The core reason is still the previously mentioned US Treasury and midterm elections. Currently, the US debt scale is high, and long-term US Treasury yields are also at a high level. Prolonged high interest rates will further increase financing costs. Coupled with the approaching midterm elections, policymakers may not want to see financial conditions continue to tighten
So tonight, what I care more about is not whether Wash directly says the words "rate cut," but:
Whether he will leave greater policy space for the Treasury market, long-term interest rates, and future economic growth. If Wash's speech is not as hawkish as the market fears, and even releases concerns about the economy, employment, and long-term rates, then the market is very likely to reprice rate cut expectations
Tonight's Wash speech, I am more bullish on BTC, ETH, and US stocks!"#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Many people are waiting for Warsh's speech tonight, with the first reaction being to calculate the probability of a September rate hike, but you will most likely be misled by surface information this time.
The real core contradiction is not whether there will be a single rate hike or not.
The market currently prices in a 33% chance of a September rate hike, but Warsh does not dare to put a rate hike directly on the table—the long-term US Treasury yields have already been pushed to a critical point, and the US fiscal deficit hole is still expanding. A hard rate hike would be a double blow to both the economy and asset prices.
His optimal script has long been written.
He maintains a hawkish stance verbally, leaving the market enough deterrence that "rate hikes can still happen if necessary," but in reality, he delays taking action, stabilizing bond market sentiment without daring to truly burst the asset bubble.
The hidden signals in the crypto market have already moved ahead.
$BTC ETFs have seen net inflows for several consecutive days, with over $3 billion inflows in August, showing strong institutional support that hasn't wavered with macro expectations.
In the short term, BTC is oscillating between 78K-81K for consolidation, and $ETH is repeatedly tugging between 2.4K-2.6K, essentially waiting for the macro shoe to drop.
The strong momentum in tech stocks after Nvidia's earnings has cooled down; the Nasdaq and S&P are weakening in pre-market, chip stocks are the first to fall, and capital has quietly shifted its rhythm.
Tonight, don't get stuck on the words "rate hike"; focus on his attitude toward long-term interest rates—that is the truly heavy signal.
Which asset's subsequent trend are you most concerned about tonight?There has always been talk of the September curse in financial markets, but the tension this September is clearly much more intense than in previous years.
Three major liquidity bombs are almost set to explode within the same month.
The first bomb is the divergence in the pace of central banks in the US, Japan, and Europe. The Federal Reserve is about to hold its first official interest rate decision under the new Wash era amid inflation still sticky at 3.7%, while the Bank of Japan is gearing up for its next rate hike. If the ghost of yen carry trade unwind resurfaces in mid-September, all globally leveraged assets will shudder.
The second bomb is the super IPO of Anthropic, the AI giant. With a target valuation soaring to $2 trillion, once the public prospectus lands in September, it will inevitably trigger a fierce liquidity drain effect in the secondary market. From SpaceX to Anthropic this year, a cluster of giant unicorns going public has pushed the pressure on passive portfolio rebalancing of existing funds to the limit.
The third bomb is the unstoppable tsunami of bond issuance by European and American governments. The massive supply of sovereign bonds is not only continuously draining interbank liquidity but also invisibly raising the risk-free cost of capital across the entire market.
When central bank policy divergence, mega IPO liquidity drain, and sovereign debt surges collide head-on within just 30 days, any underestimation of a single factor could come at a heavy price. For the crypto market, this environment means short-term severe liquidity withdrawal and deleveraging turbulence, but in the long run, it continuously validates the safe-haven value of non-sovereign assets.$SOL current price is 105, having surged from 95.82 up to 110.6, with a peak increase of over 15%. It is now pulling back on lower volume. This rally is not just speculative trading; two key pieces of news have been slowly fermenting behind the scenes.
First, Solana just completed its first on-chain governance vote, officially implementing proposals for token burn and inflation adjustment. According to the plan, over the next six years, tokens worth over a billion dollars will be issued less. This means SOL is officially transitioning from an inflationary token to one with deflationary logic, adding a layer of long-term fundamental support.
The second point to note is that Forward, Solana's largest treasury, continues to accumulate tokens. From early July to early August, it added 254,000 tokens at an average price of only 75. Even if Multicoin exits, the treasury's buying activity has not stopped. The willingness to keep accumulating at this level shows strong long-term confidence, with a total SOL holding now at 7.81 million tokens.
With deflationary burns providing a floor and the treasury continuously buying with real capital, these two positive factors combined indicate a bullish long-term trend.
Old Xue's preferred short-term strategy: try a small long position in the 105-106 range, with a stop loss at 103, and target the 110-112 range above. Market moves driven by news often present opportunities during low-volume pullbacks. $BTC $ETH
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 $BTC $BTG $DOGE Brothers, the new Fed Chair Wash really has me baffled. Since taking office, he's been extremely tight-lipped. When asked if he would raise rates given such high inflation, he just dodges the question and gives no forward guidance. He says verbally, "The central bank is more inclined to raise rates if core inflation rises," but he won't tell you whether he thinks inflation has actually worsened. As a result, once he speaks, interest rates don't fall but rise, and the market votes with its feet.
Even more absurd is that the 30-year US Treasury yield has hit a new high since 2019, and Treasury Secretary Yellen couldn't sit still and had to step in to buy back bonds to suppress yields. What does this mean? Liquidity isn't that loose, and the cost of long-term funds keeps rising. For the crypto world, this is not good news; high-risk assets like BTC fear high and stable interest rates the most, with the faucet not turning on.
On Friday at Jackson Hole, he has one more chance. Economists want him to clarify: is inflation really sticky, and will the Fed raise rates or not, and how? But judging by his previous tone, he'll probably talk about AI, demographics, geopolitics, and continue to dodge the issue.
My view: don't listen to the empty talk; watch how long-term rates and US Treasuries move. If he continues to be vague, the market will only pressure him with high yields. Don't expect a liquidity flood in the short term; focus on defense and wait for clear signals. Otherwise, it will be a fake rally.Mainstream coins stayed flat today, but money quietly shifted places. 📊 As of 19:30 data: BTC is at 79,672 USDT, up only 0.30% in 24h, ETH +0.26%, BNB slightly down 0.04%. But the top gainer is TRUMP, up +18.19% in a single day, with trading volume hitting 102 million USDT; ENA also rose 12.79%, with 32.66 million in volume. Here's a set of easily overlooked numbers: the perpetual funding rates for the four mainstream coins all hover around the baseline of 0.0051%–0.01%, with none overheated. In plain terms: spot speculators are driving thematic coins, while leveraged funds haven't boarded. My judgment: this is a typical "mainstream pause, thematic catch-up" rotation. The daily RSI for mainstream coins is in the 77–80 overbought zone, making chasing highs less cost-effective, so short-term funds naturally flow to more volatile thematic coins. As long as BTC holds 78,900 (24h low), this rotation can continue; once BTC breaks below 78,900 and TRUMP's volume shrinks significantly, the catch-up rally will likely end, and I'll admit I was wrong. Notably, TRUMP's daily 100 million volume is still far from its historically active periods, more like a tentative return. Do you see TRUMP's daily 100 million volume as the start of a rotation or the tail end of a rally? #BTC# #TRUMP# #ENA# #MarketAnalysis$BTC surged 26.9% in just 8 days, and many DeFi tokens delivered 2–4x the move: 📈 $ENA +116% 📈 $AAVE +111% 📈 $CVX +109% 📈 $ETHFI +86% 📈 $CRV +80% 📈 $UNI +59% Why? 1️⃣ Shorts got squeezed and leverage returned. 2️⃣ Low circulating supply amplified inflows. 3️⃣ Rising crypto prices mechanically boosted TVL. 4️⃣ BTC liquidity lifted the entire sector. The catch? DeFi fundamentals haven't fully caught up. Daily DeFi fees are still roughly 46% below the 2025 peak, while many tokens have alreadyBTC is approaching $80,000 again, with spot ETFs seeing consecutive days of net inflows.
This signal is more important than a single-day price increase because it indicates that marginal buyers in the market are shifting from short-term traders to more stable institutional capital allocations.
On one hand, traditional finance continues to open the door. Charles Schwab plans to add assets like SOL, AVAX, and LINK, showing that mainstream financial institutions' attitude toward digital assets is shifting from "whether to participate" to "how to expand product coverage."
On the other hand, vulnerabilities on-chain remain evident. The Moonwell Base market is suspected to have been exploited due to price and collateral mechanisms, with estimated losses of about $8.7 million. Ethena is attempting to further convert "protocol growth" into "token value capture" through fee allocation and reducing monthly unlocks.
Together, these three developments form the current real picture of the market: institutional entry is widening, the narrative around protocol cash flow is strengthening, but technical and governance risks have not decreased in tandem.
Whether BTC's rally can continue depends not on whether the price briefly breaks $80,000, but on whether ETF inflows persist, leverage is controlled, and macro liquidity supports risk assets.
For public chains and DeFi tokens, the market demands even higher standards.
The next reversal may come from two directions: a sudden negative shift in ETF capital flows, or a DeFi event spreading from a single market failure into systemic liquidations. Short SOL, 100x leverage, opened at 106.84, target 105.91, +87.04%. The rebound volume above is decreasing, the buy walls are actively sold through one by one without replenishment, triggering a chain reaction of passive long stop losses.
Never gamble on a reversal with 100x leverage, only target liquidity break points. Close 80%, move stop loss to entry for the remaining position, adjust stop loss just below the high of the breakout candle. Fake walls withdraw, real walls break through, no pullback—this is the short entry point. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 比特币刚刚经历了一轮漂亮的冲高，却很快在关键位置遇阻回落。 8月25日，BTC一度突破8万美元，并刷新阶段高点；但到了8月28日，价格在触及约8.13万美元后重新跌回8万美元下方。(Reuters) 表面看，这是一次普通的获利回吐。 但如果把时间点放到今天，就会发现事情没有那么简单。 因为一场规模约64亿美元的BTC期权到期，正在把市场的多空博弈进一步放大。 01 8万美元，为什么突然变得这么重要？ 过去几天，8万美元已经不仅仅是一个心理整数关口。 它同时也是期权市场的重要执行价附近。 根据近期衍生品市场数据，约8.17万张BTC期权将在8月28日到期，名义价值约64亿美元，其中7.5万美元和8万美元附近存在较集中的Call持仓。(KuCoin) 这意味着什么？ 简单来说，当BTC接近这些关键执行价时，做市商和其他市场参与者可能需要不断调整对冲仓位。 价格如果围绕关键价位震荡，可能出现一种“拉不动、跌不深”的状态； 但如果真正突破关键区间，随着对冲仓位快速调整，行情又可能突然加速。 所以，期权到期本身并不意#Walsh to appear at Jackson Hole tonight, the real heavy signal might not be "to hike or not to hike" 👀
Walsh can speak hawkishly, but I don't think he will directly put "rate hike" on the table.
What the market really wants to hear tonight is: what exactly is the Fed planning for the next few months?
Latest news shows Walsh's speech is under huge attention, with the market already pricing in about a 33% chance of a rate hike in September. Meanwhile, pressure on long-term US Treasury yields and the US fiscal deficit issue are also topics that Jackson Hole cannot avoid.
My scenario leans more towards:
👉 Verbally maintain a hawkish stance, leaving the market room for "rate hikes if necessary"
👉 But not rushing to actually hike rates, to avoid further shocks to the economy and asset prices
👉 Continue to focus on changes in the yield curve structure at the bond end
On the crypto side, a noteworthy signal has emerged.
BTC ETF funds have seen net inflows for several consecutive days, with August cumulative inflows exceeding $3 billion, indicating institutional capital is still supporting.
In the US stock market, after Nvidia's earnings report, the tech sector's strong momentum has cooled down somewhat; today, Nasdaq and S&P futures are slightly weaker, and chip stocks have also retreated.
So my short-term scenario is:
BTC oscillates between $78K–$81K for consolidation → ETH repeatedly contests between $2.4K–$2.6K 🐪 Pharaoh’s Market Watch
Walsh speaks at Jackson Hole tonight at 10 PM. Can $BTC hold $80K?
Three scenarios:
1️⃣ Most likely: He stays vague on rates, focusing on AI, productivity and Fed reform.
2️⃣ Hawkish: Inflation concerns return → BTC could pull back toward $77K–$78K.
3️⃣ Dovish: He notes tighter financial conditions → BTC could retest $81K–$82K.
My view: Don’t bet on the speech alone. Clear signals may be limited, with upcoming economic data likely to matter more. 👀📊
$BTC $ETH On the surface, SOL is the strongest in the market, but what truly excites people isn't how much it has risen, but the way it has risen—it leaves almost no chance for those who hesitate. Have you noticed that in this rally, everyone talks about BTC, but the money quietly goes somewhere else? SOL immediately climbed to $110 today, up 7% in 24 hours, leaving the mainstream coin far behind. Its 30-day cumulative gain exceeds 45%, leaving BTC and ETH far behind. What's even more interesting is that after breaking through the psychological barrier of $100, there was almost no significant pullback. Today's new high is basically a word "strong" written all over its face. But what I want to talk about is not the price itself, but the changes in sector strength behind the price. The capital sector has already given the answer. On August 24, SOL spot ETFs saw $33.49 million in inflows in a single day, the highest in eight months, and continued to see net inflows in the following days. More importantly, DEX trading volume on Solana has surpassed CEX for nine consecutive weeks—what does this indicate? On-chain activity isn't just short-term speculation—it's that actual usage frequency is rising. Even the few xStocks-related trades on OKX are running on Solana, and the chain's ecosystem narrative has spread from memes to more practical application scenarios. From the perspective of sector strength, the main driver of this round is clearly not BTC, but the narrative of SOL's 'application-oriented public chain' being repriced. The market's willingness to give SOL a higher valuation is essentially a giveaway$CRCL I recently added a bit more.
To be honest, I no longer just see it as a “stablecoin.”
Circle’s simplest profit logic used to be taking the money in USDC to earn interest from U.S. Treasury bonds, so whenever there was a rate cut, the market would first dump it.
But what I’m more interested in now is whether the volume of USDC can continue to grow, and whether payment, settlement, and cross-border businesses can really start making money.
If Circle ends up just being a company that earns interest, then it’s indeed not cheap right now.
But if it can truly make USDC the on-chain dollar infrastructure, then the potential is completely different.
So this round, I still chose to add a bit.
Not going all in, just holding slowly.
As long as USDC keeps growing and Circle’s commercialization keeps moving forward, I’m willing to keep supporting it.At 19:33 on August 28, BTC was around $79,720, ETH around $2,508; OKX and Binance quotes were close, both showing only slight increases over 24 hours. Prices are not hot, yet institutional funds continue to flow back.
Farside shows that on August 27, US spot BTC ETFs had a net inflow of $242.3 million, ETH ETFs had a net inflow of $225.8 million, both marking the 9th consecutive trading day of positive inflows. From August 17 to 27 combined, BTC saw about $3.044 billion, ETH about $1.406 billion. Another source also reported BTC at $242.3 million; ETH was about $235 million due to product scope differences, but the direction is consistent.
The fund structure is even more worth noting. On the BTC side, IBIT had inflows of $277.6 million, partially offset by outflows of $83.6 million from FBTC and $27.2 million from GBTC; on the ETH side, ETHA, ETHB, and FETH together contributed about $207.1 million, with the main products showing a clearer same-direction trend. "Total ETF amount in the green" does not mean institutions are uniformly increasing positions; BTC still experiences product-to-product turnover, while ETH buying is more orderly.
Continuous inflows can provide support but cannot replace price confirmation. Do you value BTC's absolute scale more, or ETH's more orderly same-direction demand? If ETFs continue to flow in but prices remain range-bound, do you think it is a buildup, or is the supply above absorbing the buying pressure? #BTC #ETH #ETF fund flowAnsem proposed that the scale of an on-chain platform combining social interaction and speculation could reach tens of trillions of dollars within ten years, because the influence of creators was previously unpriceable, while TRUMP's market value of about $80 billion proves that attention can be scaled. Data breakdown: the trading volume of its eponymous token has increased about 4.7 times, but social heat remains almost flat, driven by existing funds rather than new participants; during the same period, unrealized losses on holdings once reached about $160 million. The overlooked downside: short videos are free but trading requires principal, so addiction thresholds differ; fee sharing and airdrops are zero-sum games, with creator earnings coming from fees paid by later participants rather than incremental cash flow. In the broader market, Bitcoin is around $80,000, up over 20% weekly, RSI about 81.7, greed index 71, indicating overheated sentiment. Narrative does not equal model closure. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. $BICO's recent surge is a typical case of large holders pumping the price to create momentum.
The rally attracts retail investors chasing the highs to take the bags, while behind the scenes, huge sell orders are quietly offloading.
The tokens are highly concentrated in the top 50 holder addresses, and all tokens have long been unlocked. The sharp drop after the spike with a big bearish candle is the result of profit-taking.
I have already chosen to take profits and exit, neither going long nor short. Such small-cap coins with concentrated holdings can experience sudden, unpredicted price spikes downward, with risks far outweighing opportunities.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
$BTC $XAU
Christopher Waller will speak tonight at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. As a Federal Reserve Board member, he has previously shown a relatively open attitude toward rate cuts, and the market is watching to see if he will further outline the policy path.
Currently, there are still differences within the Fed regarding the pace of rate cuts: data-dependent members emphasize inflation stickiness and employment resilience, while doves focus on signs of cooling in the labor market. If Waller clarifies a "data-driven + risk balance" framework, it may strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September; if he continues to emphasize uncertainty and avoids giving a timetable, it will be difficult to significantly change market pricing.
Historical experience shows that Jackson Hole speeches are mostly principled statements, rarely providing specific rate paths. Waller's speech is more likely to reiterate flexibility and caution rather than clearly define a complete policy framework at once. The market will focus on his latest assessment of inflation, employment, and the neutral interest rate #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Tonight, Walsh makes his debut at Jackson Hole. The market is eagerly awaiting him to clarify the interest rate direction, but judging from his consistent style since taking office, it is highly unlikely he will provide a clear interest rate guidance for September. Instead, he will likely elaborate on the new policy framework ideas without directly signaling short-term actions.
Current market contradictions
The latest core PCE remains flat, inflation stickiness is stubborn, and there is still a gap from the 2% target. The economy and employment remain resilient. Since Walsh took office, he has directly cut traditional forward guidance and downplayed the dot plot, advocating for data-driven decisions. The market has lost a clear policy anchor, amplifying volatility in U.S. Treasuries and risk assets.
Currently, the market is pricing in a higher probability of a rate hike by year-end. BTC is tugging back and forth around the 80,000 level. Tonight's speech will directly determine whether this rebound can continue.
Three scenario simulations
Scenario 1: Hawkish stance (low probability)
Emphasize inflation risks and keep the possibility of a rate hike within the year. U.S. Treasury yields rise, the dollar strengthens, BTC comes under pressure, with key support at 77,500-78,000. A break below this will trigger a phase of correction.
Scenario 2: Neutral and pragmatic (highest probability)
Firmly defend the 2% inflation target, only discuss policy framework reform, avoid specific rate hints for September, and leave the decision to subsequent data. BTC will maintain a range-bound movement between 78,000-81,000, continuing to await nonfarm payroll and inflation data to break the deadlock. $6.4B in BTC options expire Friday 08:00 UTC a fifth of Deribit's open interest in one settlement.
Meanwhile perp liquidation max pain sits at $77,567 just 2.66% above and 2.50% below current price. Tight zone, both sides loaded.
Same day as Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair. Options unwind, liquidation pressure, and a live macro speech right at the $80K test.$BTC #BTCOptionsExpiryTest 14U Zero-Threshold Crypto Real Trading Challenge｜Complete Disclosure of TRUMP Trading Strategy
The previous LIGHT trade went against the trend and hit a stop loss, resulting in a big loss. After learning from that, this time I no longer subjectively predict large-scale reversals, but only look for short-term opportunities based on risk-reward ratio and support/resistance levels.
First, look at the daily chart
TRUMP previously surged to 3.684 then pulled back; the current rebound peak is 2.932, which is clearly lower than the previous peak.
At this stage, it is a high-level consolidation after a big rise, not a new main upward trend. The daily indicators are moving sideways, with heavy trapped positions above. MEME coins at this level can face a rapid dump at any time.
Next, look at the 15-minute short-term chart
Price quickly dropped from the 2.886 resistance level, bottoming at 2.607, and is currently rebounding near 2.755.
The first resistance above: Supertrend line at 2.842, strong resistance zone at 2.886.
Many ask: Since the price is rebounding, why not go long with the trend?
I did a realistic calculation.
👉If choosing to go long:
The effective support is the low at 2.607, so the stop loss must be placed below this point. The distance from current price to stop loss is about 0.15. The upside to the first resistance is only 0.09.
Stop loss distance > profit potential, risk-reward ratio is inverted.
Even if you win seven times, one big drop wipes out all profits. In a choppy rebound market, such trades have no long-term value.
👉Choosing to go short:
Entry at 2.755, stop loss above resistance at 2.860, stop loss range 0.105.
First take profit target is previous low at 2.607, profit potential 0.148. Risk-reward ratio reaches 1.4:1, meeting my entry criteria.
My current trading rule:
No longer guessing trend direction, prioritize calculating risk-reward ratio. Even if the trend is good, if profits are small and losses large, I firmly avoid entering.
Position sizing strictly follows discipline: total capital 14U, 10U margin, 3x leverage for opening positions, 4U reserved as backup. I won’t increase position size to recover losses from the previous trade.
Of course, the judgment might be wrong. If price breaks resistance and continues rising, I will strictly stop loss and exit. There is no 100% certainty in trading; sticking to rules is enough.
I will fully review all closing results afterward, whether profit or stop loss, and never embellish trading records.
If you want to see how an ordinary person uses simple trend trading rules to see how far 14U can go, you can follow me to continuously track the entire real trading process.
#TRUMP #CryptoRealTrading #SmallCapitalTradingChallenge #TradeReview #PerpetualContractRecordYou are talking about that OKX trader who grew from 10,000 to 130 million and ranked first in profit for 365 days, the so-called "Ten Boss".
**1. He is a short-term trader, not a spot holder.** He has been trading contracts for 9 years, with the core principle of "admitting mistakes, cutting losses, and getting back up," not stubbornly holding one direction. When BTC rose from $62K to $81K in one month, a 30% increase, he saw this as a short-term overbought condition and shorted the pullback as a normal operation. You might not have noticed when he was going long.
**2. There is indeed strong resistance above $80K.** This is a dense trading area before the crash in May, with many trapped positions. After surging to $81K on August 25, it failed to hold for three consecutive days, now consolidating with low volume waiting for Wash's speech. Technically, the 1-hour MACD shows a death cross, and KDJ is turning down, so shorting by short-term traders is not surprising.
**3. He trades "win rate," not "direction."** The core message in his podcast is just one sentence — "train to not lose as a skill." He might open a short at $80,500, stop loss at $81,500 (1.2% loss), take profit at $77,000 (4.3% gain), with a risk-reward ratio of 3.5:1. Small losses when wrong, big gains when right. This logic is completely different from holding spot in a bull market.
**SOL spot ETF net inflows yesterday were approximately $56.1M-$60.9M according to different data sources, marking the highest since November 2025 and the third largest single-day inflow since the product launch; if looking only at Bitwise products, SOL inflows were about $40M, significantly exceeding BTC's $22M; meanwhile, $SOL perpetual open interest has risen to $7.54B, with 24h trading volume around $16.5B, and the funding rate is close to neutral, not as crowded as BTC and ETH.
The data tells us that this time SOL is not simply following BTC's rise, but is expanding simultaneously across ETF, performance upgrades, and institutional product shelves, allowing SOL to start gaining independent allocation demand.
Next, we need to observe whether the SOL ETF can maintain continuity; if subsequent inflows remain above $30M and funding stays moderate, the structure will be relatively healthy; if the ETF cools down quickly but open interest continues to rise, caution is needed for potential emotional chasing.$PUMP Buy more in, watch Level2 sell orders being actively eaten through by market price buys, not just looking at candlestick patterns. Thin sell walls are sparse, retracement with shrinking volume and exhausted selling pressure; only enter after the volume surge eats through the order layers.
50x does not chase breakout candles, only targets the order wall collapse points. Take 80% profit, move stop loss to open position loss, then move stop loss to just below the breakout candle low with volume—that's the real support boundary, not a round number. This kind of order-eating structure in thin markets will replicate every few days. $BTC $ETH #财报观察员: AI demand spreads from hardware to software. In my opinion, what truly deserves attention in Nvidia's latest financial report is not just the GPU sales booming again. What's even more noteworthy is another line: Nvidia is shifting from "selling chips" to "selling the entire AI computing platform." And software is becoming an increasingly important part of this business model. Let's look at the most direct data: Nvidia's latest FY2027 Q2 report: revenue of $96.22 billion, up 106% year-on-year; of which: data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-on-year. The market had previously expected total revenue to be about $92.3 billion, but Nvidia once again clearly exceeded expectations. Even more impressive, the next quarter guidance is $108 billion. Nvidia expects revenue to grow by about 70% in the next fiscal year. This is no longer just "AI demand is pretty good." Rather: AI infrastructure capital expenditure is still in a very strong expansion cycle. But this time, I focus more on software. In the past, the valuation logic for Nvidia was simple: AI needs GPUs. So: Microsoft buys GPUs,
Meta buys GPUs,
Buy GPUs on Amazon,
AI labs buy GPUs. NVIDIA sells shovels. But if we only stay here, NVIDIA will always be a hardware company. What's the problem with hardware companies? Products have cycles. Competitors will chase. Customers will also develop ASICs and self-developed chips. GPUs will never be without competition. SoCalifornia is starting to draw a red line for meme coins.
AB 2409 has been passed by the California legislature, focusing on two main points:
First, public officials are prohibited from issuing meme coins.
Second, starting from January 1, 2027, service providers are not allowed to offer trading services for such tokens to California residents.
What does this mean?
In the future, "presidential coin" models like President Trump's coin $TRUMP may become increasingly sensitive.
Previously, when presidents, celebrities, or influencers issued a coin, the market consensus alone could drive the price sky-high.
But now, regulation is directly targeting both the issuance and trading ends.
Especially the second point, if other states follow suit, the real impact won't be on a single MEME coin but on the entire business model of political figures issuing coins.
The most interesting part of this is:
Presidents can issue coins, but state governments are starting to restrict public officials from doing so.
Is U.S. crypto regulation truly embracing Crypto, or only "compliant Crypto"?
This distinction might be the biggest variable in the next round of MEME market trends. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ U.S. corporate profits hit a record high. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows that in Q2 2026, annualized U.S. corporate profits reached $4.827 trillion, up from $4.427 trillion in Q1, setting a new historical record.
Key insights:
1. AI has become the core growth engine, with technology, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure continuously driving revenue and profit increases. Corporate investment in Q2 grew about 8.5% year-over-year;
2. Profit levels have significantly improved, with corporate profits accounting for 18% of national income, remaining at a high level since World War II;
3. Fundamentals favor U.S. stocks, as strong profits will continue to support the market, with technology, AI, and energy sectors showing prominent high-profit advantages.
At the same time, the data hides risks: corporate profit growth significantly outpaces wage increases for residents, making it difficult for dividends to fully reach ordinary people; combined with July's PCE inflation holding at a high 3.7%, this will limit the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts.
Overall, the current U.S. economy shows a pattern of "high corporate profit growth, moderate economic growth, and elevated inflation." This is a short-term positive for U.S. stocks and the dollar, while putting short-term pressure on gold; if corporate profits continue to hit new highs, the profit logic of AI and technology sectors remains the most important support theme for U.S. stocks. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ 随着比特币价格反弹至 8 万美元以上，Strategy (MSTR.US) 公司股价在一周内大幅上涨 37%，然而在过去两周内，该公司并未进行任何 BTC 的购买操作，这种背离引发了市场对其战略意图的深度解读 从财务操作层面来看，Strategy (MSTR.US) 上周通过市价发行计划成功出售了 1826 万股 MSTR (MSTR.US) 普通股，实现净募资约 20 亿美元。目前，该公司持有约 84 万枚 BTC，其平均成本为 7.53 万美元，在当前币价下，账面浮盈已超过 30 亿美元 Woofun AI 整理数据显示，公司的美元储备加上现金池合计拥有 66.9 亿美元流动性，且宣称净杠杆率接近零。值得注意的是，尽管 MSTR (MSTR.US) 上周最高冲至 126.79 美元，涨幅达到 37%，但同期比特币仅上涨约 22%，股价表现显著跑赢底层资产 然而，这种上涨伴随着大规模的股权稀释，仅那一周就增发了 4.59% 的股本，且今年以来 MSTR (MSTR.US) 整体仍较 52 周高点下跌了约 69%。这种依赖股价上涨来支撑估值的模式，使得每一轮融资都紧密关联着市场情绪与资TRUMP on-chain fund movements are not simple. In the past two hours, a whale has transferred about 830,000 tokens from a spot wallet to a contract account, but the price did not rise accordingly. Instead, large sell orders continuously appeared above 2.83, with a long upper shadow on the naked candlestick. The contract funding rate also turned negative, indicating very weak willingness for spot price to rise. Currently, 2.769 is indecisive; there is some support at 2.74 but it's not very strong. Above, from 2.82 to 2.85, there are three layers of sell walls, making the long-short cost very narrow. When the red light was on, I glanced at the on-chain flow; the whale did not withdraw but instead thickened the sell orders near 2.83. This structure is hard to interpret as accumulation. My analysis is to short in the 2.79 to 2.82 range on a rebound, with a stop loss above 2.865. The first take profit target is 2.71; if it breaks below, look for 2.66 to 2.61. If it first breaks 2.74 with volume, do not chase shorts; wait for a rebound to 2.76 before adding to avoid losses from low liquidity sweeps. Manage your leverage carefully; don't be like me, who has already blown up once and is recklessly rolling the dice.
$TRUMP
#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议
@OKX星球 OKB is consolidating near $113, with the supply side capped at a hard limit of 21 million tokens. The core issue lies in whether the on-chain Gas and staking lock-up can effectively absorb the spot buying pressure on high-level chips.
The spot price has a 56% gap from the historical high of $256. The current market cap of $2.37 billion reflects that the market has not fully priced in the absolute scarcity after the one-time burn of 65.26 million tokens and the removal of the minting function.
The priority order driven by liquidity is: the sediment demand brought by X Layer as the sole Gas token, the circulation lock caused by mandatory staking on Exchange OS, and institutional funds introduced through cooperation with ICE valued at $25 billion.
The bullish scenario triggers when X Layer ecosystem activity surpasses a threshold and staking lock-up continues to absorb floating chips. When spot volume pushes the price above $150, it will validate the scarcity premium revaluation logic, further driving liquidity to concentrate in the spot market.
The bearish scenario triggers if overall market liquidity tightens sharply or ecosystem development lags. If spot buying dries up causing the price to fall below $98, it indicates chips are concentrating in derivatives shorts, and scarcity support will temporarily fail.
If there is a sustained decline in X Layer on-chain Gas consumption or a large-scale unstaking in the staking pool, the bullish projection based on infrastructure synergy will immediately become invalid.
In the next 7 days, focus on observing the rate of X Layer on-chain Gas consumption and the thickness of spot buy orders in the $100 to $110 range.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议Một chi tiết đáng chú ý trong báo cáo 10-Q mới của NVIDIA đang khiến thị trường phải nhìn lại cách các “AI Cloud” được xây dựng. NVIDIA đã cam kết tới khoảng 36 TỶ USD để mua lại năng lực tính toán từ các trung tâm dữ liệu mà chính họ bán phần cứng. 💡 Cơ chế khá đặc biệt: NVIDIA bán GPU/hệ thống AI cho các AI Cloud → các bên này dùng phần cứng để xây data center → NVIDIA cam kết mua lại một phần capacity trong khoảng 6 năm. Nếu họ tìm được khách hàng bên ngoài, họ có thể bán capacity cho khách Bitcoin's correlation with gold has broken through 50%, while its 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from over 60% to about 33%
AI risk appetite rises, Bitcoin also rises
AI risk appetite falls, Bitcoin still rises
Since the big surge on 8/19, Bitcoin follows gold during the day and US stocks at night
Tonight at 10 PM, Powell will give a speech. Personally, I think policy credibility might be more worth watching than interest rate hikes or cuts
Why say this? Because since he took office, he has been hawkish but no rate hikes have been seen yet. If there is a black swan event in Q4, it will most likely be the implementation of rate hikes and a stronger dollar.
Crypto market will be the first to pull back, followed closely by US stocks, then gold will have a soft landing
If rates remain unchanged until the end of the year, with a weak economy and worsening employment, there might even be a passive rate cut
Approaching the US midterm elections, when money is tight, Trump might exert pressure behind the scenes. Even though rate hike expectations are high now, they could very likely be forcibly delayed until year-end
So in September, October, and November, Bitcoin and Ethereum will most likely experience wide fluctuations, just like gold and oil have this year Qatar LNG force majeure extended for another month
Are Europeans about to start scrambling for gas? 😂
Another not-so-good news from Qatar
LNG force majeure continues to be extended by one month
What does it mean?
Simply put
Bro, it's not that I don't want to supply you, it's that I really can't supply normally 😂
And no penalty for breach of contract is required
The problem is Qatar is not an ordinary natural gas seller
Before the war, Qatar supplied about one-fifth of the world's LNG
Now, due to the war, facility damage, and shipping issues in the Strait of Hormuz, exports have been severely affected
Latest data from Reuters shows
Qatar's LNG exports this year have plummeted about 96% compared to the same period last year
Originally there were 509 shipments
Now only 18 shipments
This is not just a slight reduction
It's like the crystal has been taken away immediately
What's more troublesome is Europe
Europe's natural gas storage is already at a historical low for this season
If the winter gets a bit colder
And then another wave of supply issues comes...
Natural gas prices might start to spike again
Then natural gas prices rise → electricity prices rise → business costs rise → inflation pressure rises
The Federal Reserve is going to have a headache again
I just wanted to cut interest rates, and you give me this? 😂
Natural gas issues won't directly crash the big cake
$BTC Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), wrote that ETF inflows into ETH have hit a new high, with BTC ETFs seeing $242 million in inflows today and ETH ETFs inflowing $234 million. Although ETH's total market cap is only 18.8% of BTC's, it absorbed 96.8% of BTC's inflows, showing significantly stronger fundraising than BTC. In the current context of continuous capital inflows, the pattern of "consolidation at high levels with rising lows" is quite stable, and another round of bear squeeze could erupt at any time. If not for adhering to trading discipline and firmly avoiding leverage, or even preparing to go long on ETH. His current positioning strategy is: when no short positions are opened, hold all positions in ETH spot and wait for prices to rise; once a long position is opened, it means increasing leverage and triggering a risk of liquidationSEC Reopens the ICO Door, Where Have the Buyers Gone?
The SEC recently proposed a new plan to revive the ICO scene.
What does this mean? Crypto startups no longer need to go through the full registration process. Small projects can raise up to $5 million per year, and larger projects have a cap of $75 million. Compared to the heavy crackdown after the 2017 ICO boom, this is quite a turnaround in attitude.
But the problem is—the market is no longer the same.
How crazy was ICO back then?
In 2017, all it took was a whitepaper, a wallet, and convincing a bunch of people that the new coin would skyrocket.
At its peak, in January 2018, $3 billion was raised in a single month.
Then what happened? Prices crashed, regulations hit hard, projects ran away, and pump-and-dump schemes ran rampant—it all fell apart.
Bitcoin was halved twice from its peak, Ethereum didn’t fare much better, and many altcoins went to zero.
So what’s the awkward part now?
The SEC’s new rules don’t come cheap in compliance costs, and all required disclosures still must be made.
Even if you get through the fundraising stage, how to trade the tokens afterward remains a mess.
Worse yet—there’s no one left to buy in.
Retail investors are now very selective, mostly focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum, maybe glancing at Solana. New coins? Forget it.
Those chasing quick profits have moved on to perpetual contracts, prediction markets, or jumped straight into AI concept stocks.
Venture capital has cooled off too:
· Token-related investment and trading have noticeably shrunk since 2025;
· Many top VCs have turned to investing in AI, robotics, and biotech.
Is this regulatory move timely?
The reaction inside the industry is quite mixed.
Tom Schmidt, partner at Dragonfly, said:
"This is better than nothing, but if it had come out a few years earlier, it would have been much more valuable. The biggest issue now isn’t fundraising."
In short—the regulators are catching up on old issues, but the market has already moved on.
Is anyone optimistic?
Not entirely dismissive.
Winnie Lau from Strobe Ventures said, after the market’s long stagnation, this proposal makes her "cautiously optimistic"—at least it opens a legitimate path for projects that want to do real work, not just launch Meme coins.
Cosmo Jiang from Pantera Capital pointed out a key change:
"It used to be surreal—issuing Meme coins was legal, while tokens for serious projects were illegal, which is completely against normal business logic."
An important update in the new rules is that tokens won’t be permanently tied to the investment contracts at issuance; projects can end when they’re done.
But don’t get confused—legal doesn’t mean you have to invest.
Carlos Guzman, analyst at GSR, put it bluntly:
"The ICO in 2026 is a completely different game from 2018. The days of raising money with just a whitepaper and a PPT are over."
The data shows:
· Although Bitcoin has recently bounced back a bit, it’s still down about 10% from 2026 to today;
· Gold has risen more than 7% in the same period.
Even the "digital gold" story isn’t working well this year.
By the way, HYPE has been quite active lately, but one project can’t support the whole market.
$BTC $XAU $HYPE $BTC Tonight at 10 PM, the whole world is waiting for this man to speak!
Brothers, Bitcoin is currently stuck at the critical $80,000 mark, neither rising nor falling. Behind it is ETF capital pushing hard with a net inflow of $2.8 billion over 8 consecutive days, but ahead lies a "high-voltage grid" formed by a massive trapped volume between $81,000 and $86,000.
Tonight at 10 PM, Federal Reserve Chair Wash's speech at Jackson Hole will determine whether this market breaks through directly or first pulls back for a shakeout.
There is a detail you must pay attention to: this round of rally is not driven by contract retail traders rushing in with leverage, but by solid spot buying and shorts conceding and closing positions.
Futures open interest has dropped from 646,000 contracts to 588,000 contracts, indicating the load has lightened; the main players do not intend to fight contract longs here but are accumulating.
$ETH $SOL #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？