Orbit Post Sitemap
【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series 52】
7.8 months after exiting the 2019 bear bottom: The bull market recovery phase ended, the market probed the last pullback bottoming range before the main rise, creating an excellent 1.5-month trading window (ignoring the 3/12 black swan event)
7.2 months after exiting the 2023 bear bottom: The bull market recovery phase ended, the market probed the last pullback bottoming range before the main rise, creating an excellent 2.2-month trading window
It has been 0.25 months since exiting the bear bottom this cycle
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
The indicators in the chart are bull market top escape & bear market bottom buying models developed based on Bitcoin VDD, Median Price, and multiple bear bottom right-side confirmation indicatorswith AAVE up 33% in the week to launch, Ghost Pass can widen Aave's app reach but adds little near-term support. 50k waitlist signups do not fund the vault. users must retain deposits for spreads to reach the DAO, then governance decides whether revenue reaches AAVE holders.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest A reminder not to be misled by Nvidia and short squeeze pulses: This week, a hard data point was completely overshadowed — the US Chicago PMI for August came in at 47.1, while the expectation was 57.9, plunging straight into contraction territory. It's one of the worst economic readings in recent months.
What does this mean? The AI capital expenditure boom is real, but the manufacturing sector's health is declining; these two trends are diverging. Crypto is currently riding the AI narrative with the Nasdaq, but $BTC hasn't truly held above 80,000, and SOL's recent leading rally was more of a short squeeze pulse than a fundamental-driven buy.
When prices rise, ask more: Who is buying, and based on what logic? If you can't see clearly, don't chase — missing the top can still earn you profits, but chasing on a crack is a real loss. Since August 17th ↓
• Bitcoin $BTC: +27%
• Stacks $STX: +116%
If you’ve been here since the 2021 cycle, you may recall all the discussions about $STX being a beta play for $BTC.
Could this still be the case in 2026? Let’s do some analysis ↓
1️⃣ BTC won the asset race, now it needs an economy.
Bitcoin has the largest balance sheet in crypto.
US spot BTC ETFs are now sitting around $99B in net assets, with $2.8B flowing #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Today's entire market hinge is on one thing: Powell's debut speech.
From a card-reading perspective, his hand is extremely difficult to play—65 months of inflation missing the target, the market is forcing him to take a stance, but whatever he says is a trap: too hawkish, and once expectations ignite, they can't be reined in; too soft, and his credibility is immediately snatched away by colleagues who can provide details. It's not about whether he wants to take a stance, but that whatever he says, he pays a price.
So I won't make a move today. While others are rushing to take sides early on whether he'll be dovish or hawkish, I'll just wait for him to reveal his cards. Betting heavily without complete information isn't bravery, it's gambling. For $BTC stuck around 80,000, it's much more important to see clearly before acting than to snatch a point or two.Today's crypto market feels like a fund manager who's had three shots of espresso: eager to surge, yet afraid the Fed might suddenly pull the plug. $BTC briefly touched $81,455 overnight, then retreated back near $80,000. The real big boss remains the previous high at $82,800. More importantly, this rally isn't purely driven by leverage—spot ETFs continue to attract capital, while futures positions haven't spiraled out of control, indicating there's genuine money backing the market.
$ETH is sharpening around $2,500, $SOL remains strong on the weekly chart but has started to pull back slightly in the short term; the altcoin season index is only 34/100, so we're far from the stage of "blindly buying air and still profiting." Funds are clearly revolving around large-cap assets, with altcoins mostly experiencing structural rotation rather than a broad bull market.
Tonight's real director is the Federal Reserve. PCE remains elevated, and the market is pricing in about a 35% chance of a rate hike in September. Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is also scheduled for tonight. My judgment: the trend is bullish, but above $80,000 is not a highway—it's a toll gate. Only when $BTC firmly holds above $82,800 can the market confidently talk about higher levels; conversely, a drop below $78,000 calls for caution as short-term sentiment may fade.
In summary: the bull is already at the door, but right now it's also watching the Fed's live broadcast. Risk Warning
1. $6.4 billion options expiry is the biggest short-term risk: the maximum pain point at 68,000-70,000 is far below the spot price, and hedging activities near settlement may trigger amplified volatility
2. 81,000 is the key short-term watershed: a breakout opens the space towards 83,000-86,000; if it continues to be resisted, a pullback to 76,000-77,500 is possible
3. 83,000 is the "touchstone" for the medium-term bullish logic: Ali Charts marks it as a key resistance, and a breakout is needed to confirm a larger upside potential
4. Extreme greed is a short-term hidden risk: the fear and greed index returning to the extreme greed zone historically signals short-term correction risk
5. Powell's speech is the biggest macro variable: the probability of a rate hike this year has reached 78%, and hawkish signals may reverse rate cut expectations
6. Bullish liquidation scale far exceeds bearish: insufficient upward momentum, high risk of chasing highs in the short term $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 1. What exactly are we trading tonight? (1) Is there any chance for a rate cut in September? (2) After inflation heats up again, will the Fed continue to maintain high interest rates? (3) Will Wash provide a clear policy direction? The biggest contradiction now is: employment is starting to face pressure, but inflation is not low enough. In July, US PCE year-on-year reached 3.7%, core PCE about 3.3%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target. Meanwhile, signs of cooling in the job market are appearing again. So tonight is not simply a simple "speech of bullish/bearish news." Instead: inflation → interest rates → US Treasury yields → USD → BTC/gold — this chain. ⸻ 2. Three Scenarios 🔴 Tonight Scenario One: Warsh Leans Hawkish If the speech emphasizes: * Inflation remains stubborn * Rate cuts cannot be made too early * Restrictive rates need to be maintained for a longer period * September policy cannot be preset * Rate cut expectations are cooled, then the market's first reaction is most likely: US Treasury yields ↑ USD ↑ Gold ↓ BTC ↓ ETH ↓ This is also the biggest short-term risk tonight. Especially BTC. BTC just broke above $80,000, peaked close to 81,300, then fell back below 80,000, indicating clear profit-taking has appeared at this level. So if Warsh is hawkish: 80,000 is likely to shift from support to resistance. BTC Key Position My View is: 80,000: Long-Short Lifeline Above: * 8Today, two lines have completely twisted together: The US Chicago PMI for August is only 47.1, expected 57.9 — manufacturing has directly fallen into contraction; yet core inflation has failed to stay below 2% for 65 consecutive months, and the Washington crowd is still hawkish. The economy is cooling while prices are heating up, which is a sign of stagflation.
When macro factors are conflicting like this, would you still dare to bet on contracts for direction? I wouldn't. So I keep most of my capital in spot, and almost no contracts — if spot prices fall, I won't be forcibly liquidated, and I have the right to wait until I see clearly. $ASTER
The most valuable skill at the table is never going all-in, but having the courage not to bet when you can't see the bottom cards clearly. If you're itching to leverage up today, first ask yourself: Are you really betting on the market trend, or is it just that your patience isn't enough? Here’s something most $BTC traders may miss:
US equity funds just saw $22.3B in weekly outflows.
At the same time, crypto is seeing billions flow into spot ETFs.
Money isn’t simply leaving risk assets.
It may be rotating between them.
Bitcoin + gold are becoming part of the same “debasement” trade.
The bigger question: where does capital rotate next?
#BTC #Crypto#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Position management, how exactly should it be handled?
Many people understand position management as "opening smaller positions." But true position management is not about fixed sizes like 10%, 20%, or 50%. Instead, it starts with determining: how much loss is allowed for this trade at most, then working backward to decide the position size. For example, if the account has 1000U and the maximum loss per trade is 10U, with a structural stop loss distance of 2%, then the nominal position size is about 500U. Leverage only determines how much margin is occupied; it should not decide how much risk you are willing to take. The real danger is never the number 100x itself, but opening 100x leverage while enlarging the nominal position so much that a normal market fluctuation can hurt the account.
I now prefer to divide positions into three levels: trial positions, confirmation positions, and trend positions. The first time reaching a key level, if unsure whether the structure will hold, use a small position to test; after the market confirms the direction, increase the position; only after a real trend emerges, consider letting the profit position run. The biggest advantage of this approach is limited loss when wrong and still having ammunition when right. The worst is entering full position on the first entry, adding on dips, and turning what should be a normal stop loss into a heavy position that "must be recovered."
Trading is not about who dares to press heavier, but who can stay at the table after mistakes happen.
Note: Content is only personal trading observations and learning records, not any investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $BTC Tonight at 10 PM, Warsh's debut at Jackson Hole—both Bitcoin and Ethereum need to stay alert. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, inflation stickiness persists; this speech will impact traditional assets and directly affect the crypto market.
If he is hawkish, continuing rate hikes or maintaining high interest rates, expectations for rate cuts will cool, and dollar liquidity will tighten. Bitcoin, as a high-beta asset, will face increased selling pressure and will likely test lower support levels first; Ethereum, closely linked to tech stocks, may see a deeper pullback. Avoid blindly bottom-fishing in panic.
If he is dovish, acknowledging controlled inflation or discussing a path to rate cuts, the dollar will weaken and risk appetite will rise. Bitcoin is expected to rally quickly, breaking resistance; Ethereum has more resilience and, as long as there is no severe regulation, could see even more significant gains. This is the scenario bulls most anticipate.
If he is ambiguous, emphasizing data dependency with no clear direction, the market will chop back and forth with spikes up and down, and quant funds will exacerbate volatility. Chasing trades at this time carries high risk; patience to wait for a clear direction is the best strategy.
M&T Bank's chief economist admits: "It's hard to predict what he will say." For investors, this is both a fundamental test and an emotional trial. It is recommended to closely monitor real-time changes in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields before and after the speech, as these reflect capital intentions more than words. Short-term news disturbances do not change long-term value, but staying clear-headed before major macro waves is more important than betting on direction. $ETH $BTC
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ 🚨 Bitcoin is standing at the exact level where the last two cycles broke down.
Three cycles. Same setup. 👀
2018: +47% from the June low → breaks the Bull Market Support Band → rejected at the 50W SMA → new Q4 low.
2022: +46% from the January low → breaks the band → rejected at the 50W SMA → new Q4 low.
2026: +40% from the June low → band already broken → now sitting right on the 50W SMA at $81,088.
And here’s the scary part…
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #Gold ETFs Attract Massive Inflows, Risk-Aversion Logic Is Being Reshaped
Gold has risen above the $4700 mark, with growing market divergence, but money is more honest than opinions. Global physical gold ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $6 billion last week, hitting a nearly ten-month high, showing that capital is voting with its feet. Meanwhile, BTC spot ETFs also maintained net inflows simultaneously. This rare synchronization between the two asset types indicates this is not just simple risk-aversion sentiment but a repricing of sovereign credit premiums.
The core contradiction for gold currently is: short-term prices are driven by futures leverage funds, while physical consumption in Asia is weak in following the rise. However, the continuous increase in ETF holdings reflects a migration of medium- to long-term allocation demand. Notably, the simultaneous inflows into gold ETFs and BTC ETFs, despite their different underlying logics, point to the same direction—capital is seeking a “non-sovereign ballast” outside the dollar system.
The difference lies in that gold is anchored to real interest rates, central bank gold purchasing pace, and geopolitical risk sentiment, with relatively convergent volatility, making it more suitable as a “slow variable” defensive base in portfolios; whereas BTC is more sensitive to macro liquidity, ETF buying strength, and contract leverage, with greater elasticity, serving as a “fast variable” offensive tool during risk appetite recovery phases.
Going forward, two signals need close monitoring: first, if both ETFs continue synchronized net inflows, it indicates global capital is systemically raising the overall allocation weight of non-sovereign assets; second, if a divergence occurs with gold continuing inflows while BTC outflows, it suggests the market is shifting from a “reflation trade” to a “recession risk-aversion mode” 🔥 Wash takes the stage at Jackson Hole tonight, no need to expect any major policy signals
This speech focuses on financial innovation, and the market shouldn't expect to find any clues about the September interest rate decision. Whether it's the US stock market or the crypto market, it's unlikely that this speech will trigger significant volatility.
Many people wonder why the Fed doesn't cut rates when it clearly benefits the US. Not only would it ease the pressure of repaying the massive national debt, but it would also lower corporate financing thresholds, stimulate real economy and employment, and improve the stock market environment.
Despite all these benefits, the Fed remains inactive. In my view, the biggest constraint is still inflation. Although the official data looks acceptable, the Fed's repeated emphasis on the 2% inflation red line indirectly indicates that real price pressures have not truly eased. Recklessly cutting rates risks a resurgence of inflation.
As for concerns about rate cuts causing a narrowing of interest rate spreads and capital outflows, these are secondary and have limited impact.
Another point is that many people link this round of crypto market rally to rate cut expectations, a logic I don't quite agree with.
Essentially, the profit space in the US tech sector is narrowing, and the original market profit effect is fading. Some institutional funds have started seeking undervalued areas elsewhere, thus flowing into the crypto sector where prices are more advantageous.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #Will Wash debut tonight at Jackson Hole, can he clarify the policy framework?
I'm Brother Ci, Wash will appear at 22:00 tonight, the most critical variable at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. Core PCE is still above 2%, initial jobless claims dropped to 203,000, Schmidt and Hamarck will continue to emphasize inflation risks before the meeting. The market is not waiting for whether Wash will preview September action, but whether he can clearly explain how inflation, employment, and financial conditions trigger policy adjustments, as well as the boundaries between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury on long-term interest rates. If guidance continues to be weakened without a clear framework, the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, gold, and BTC will all face greater expectation volatility.
BTC is oscillating around 80,500, with a supply zone forming pressure between 81,000 and 81,500, and a short-term support liquidation zone for bulls between 78,500 and 80,000. Don't heavily bet on direction before the speech; wait for Wash to finish speaking before making a move. A dovish tilt would break through 82,000, a hawkish tilt would pull back to 78,000. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Brother Ci has finished speaking, savor it. XPL unlocked 297 million tokens in a single day; the inflation test for low-circulation tokens is just beginning
The Layer1 public chain Plasma, focused on stablecoin payments, today saw the unlocking of 297 million XPL tokens, with a nominal value of about $27 million.
Looking at the $27 million figure alone may not seem impressive, but when combined with its token economic model, this unlocking release signals enough to make secondary market holders extremely cautious.
Currently, the total circulating supply of XPL is about 2.78 billion tokens, while the total token supply reaches 10 billion. In other words, over 72% of the tokens across the network remain locked in a frozen state, which is a very typical "low circulation, high FDV" structure.
Today's unlocking of 297 million tokens for ecosystem and growth directly inflates the existing circulating supply by more than 10%. In the market environment at the end of August, where spot buy-side depth was generally thin, if the newly unlocked tokens flow into exchanges, it will immediately create selling pressure testing the short-term support.
But this is not the most severe test yet.
The real Damocles sword hanging over XPL is the super cliff-like unlocking on the first anniversary of the mainnet launch on September 25. At that time, 1.67 billion tokens will be unlocked at once, marking the first large-scale release of early investment institutions' and core team shares.
For a public chain focused on zero Gas stablecoin payments, the true value of the token ultimately depends on the blood-generating ability of staked locked tokens, rather than short-term illusions created by low circulation and market control.Today $ENA surged sharply, and the market is spreading a phrase: Ethena will use 95% of its revenue to buy back tokens.
But after carefully reading the proposal, it's not that simple.
This is not about using "95% of the protocol's total revenue" directly to buy ENA. According to the current plan, only after the USDe supply reaches $7.5 billion will the first tier of revenue distribution be triggered, extracting 5% of the protocol's total revenue; after this portion enters the foundation, 95% of it will be used for buybacks.
Currently, the USDe supply is about $4.07 billion, which means buybacks will not start immediately.
Of course, this proposal is still positive. At least ENA will no longer be just a governance token used for voting; in the future, it may truly be linked to protocol revenue.
What should be focused on next is whether USDe can grow to $7.5 billion, whether protocol revenue can be sustained, and whether buybacks will affect the yield competitiveness of sUSDe.
It's good that the project is starting to talk about revenue buybacks, and price increases in advance are normal. But don't automatically interpret the "95%" figure as a signal to start frantically buying tomorrow.
The two words that most easily make people pay in the crypto world are always "highest."Whales are showing divergence; some whales are quietly selling BTC. Should we panic?
From the cumulative CVD order flow data of BTC, there are already warning signals on the market.
Whales in the purple and red groups are dominating with proactive selling, and the market is simultaneously undergoing a moderate correction.
However, the market is not a one-sided mass exit: the brown whale group, representing top-tier large funds, still maintains a buying stance.
Summary of the current situation:
1. Not all whales are uniformly bearish; there is serious divergence within the group;
2. Most whales at various levels have started taking profits on rallies, spreading selling pressure;
3. A few leading institutional whales are still absorbing, supporting the market.
This situation means: the upward momentum is beginning to weaken, and it is highly likely to enter a high-level consolidation phase to digest profits.
Some whales are cashing out, while others are taking over positions; there is currently no collective dumping or crash signal.
But the growing divergence in capital means it is not suitable to blindly chase highs; defensive positions should closely monitor key support levels.
Tonight's Jackson Hole speech will further amplify volatility, so risk control should be prioritized.Analyzing 6 years of ETH data, I found a pattern ignored by 90% of people —
The seven days of the week are not random at all.
The most extreme since 2026:
Monday averages a $23 gain, with a 62% win rate
Thursday averages a $30 loss, with only a 37% win rate
A 27 percentage point difference on the same day — luck? Impossible.
Even sneakier is Saturday:
65% win rate, the highest overall
But average return is -$5.8
Small gains when up, sharp cuts when down
Entering based on win rate alone means getting harvested.
Looking over 6 years, the pattern still holds:
Wednesday is the most stable (+$14), Thursday the worst (-$11.6)
Weekend volatility is low, suitable for relaxing and not trading.
So the conclusion is simple:
✅ Monday: Bullish window, don’t oversleep
❌ Thursday: Short if you can, otherwise watch and wait
⚠️ Saturday: High win rate is a trap, beware of small gains and big losses
😴 Weekend: Low volatility, do whatever you need to do
Data doesn’t lie, but it won’t place orders for you either.
6 years of large samples + intra-year verification, this pattern is worth noting in your trading journal.
$BTC $ETH I set up a grid trading strategy, going long on $SPCX at $140. Currently, the market opened with a slight increase. Morgan Stanley has once again issued a very optimistic view on SpaceX, with a target price even reaching $300.
I think the biggest focus right now is not chasing the rally, but whether this level can hold steady, since it has been a long time since the launch.
Personally, I believe $150 is a significant psychological resistance level.
If the price can hold steady at $140 now and continue to consume profits, there is still a high possibility of a new round of upward movement.
The news sentiment is currently hot. Elon Musk recently set a very aggressive revenue target for 2033, and SpaceX announced an investment of about $100 billion in Louisiana to build Starbase. These news are clearly positive for valuation sentiment.
For this grid, I will not close it just because of the slight rise near $140. $140 itself is the core cost area of your strategy, and now it is more suitable to let the grid benefit from the fluctuations.
What really needs to be reassessed is whether it can break through $145 and $150 upwards.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Tonight's Jackson Hole annual meeting marks the most important public debut of the new Federal Reserve official, Wash, since taking office. The market is generally focused on the timing of rate cuts, but this is the biggest misconception. The core macro disagreement has long since changed: the market debate is no longer about when to cut rates, but whether there will be another rate hike.
Currently, inflation remains stubbornly high, with core PCE steady at 3.3% for three consecutive months and overall PCE at 3.7%, showing no signs of improvement. Several Federal Reserve officials have spoken intensively this week, bluntly stating that current financial conditions are relatively loose and insufficient to suppress inflation, with hawkish expectations rapidly heating up.
This speech carries great weight because Wash is usually low-key and speaks little; the market is completely unaware of his inflation tolerance, policy trigger conditions, and interest rate thinking.
There are three clear signals in the current market: long-term U.S. Treasury yields are rising, the curve is steepening, continuously pricing in inflation and fiscal risks; "high interest rates maintained longer" has become the market consensus; capital games are shifting, starting to bet on the next rate hike rather than a rate cut.
The mainstream market expects Wash to release dovish signals, driving a short-term rebound in assets.
A clear and tough hawkish stance, firmly defending the 2% inflation target, can stabilize long-term interest rates and benefit high-valuation assets; conversely, vague and wavering dovish remarks, seemingly positive in the short term, will trigger long bond sell-offs and rising yields, planting hidden risks in the market.
In short, tonight there is no need to bet on rises or falls; a clear policy stance is far more important than a loose or tight position. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC $ETH $SNDK The Ethereum ecosystem suddenly started making money, but what’s really worth watching might no longer be ETH.
In the past 7 days, the top five income earners in the Ethereum ecosystem chains are: Ethereum mainnet $4.25 million, Base $1.25 million, Robinhood Chain about $700,000, Polygon PoS about $640,000, Arbitrum One about $120,000.
The most interesting thing is that the top two incomes are clearly accelerating, with the Ethereum mainnet up 86% week-over-week, and Base up 78%.
This makes me feel that people might be focusing on the wrong things again.
Previously, when discussing the Ethereum ecosystem, the favorite metrics were transaction volume, active addresses, and TVL, and once a chain’s data exploded, people would start shouting “takeoff.” But now, what’s more worth watching is actually a very simple question: are these users really leaving money on the chain?
From this perspective, changes have already appeared.
Base has started to consistently contribute income, Robinhood Chain has even jumped to third place, and the Ethereum mainnet’s income has clearly rebounded.
This means the Ethereum ecosystem might be moving from "competing on who is cheaper and who can attract more users" to gradually entering the stage of "who can truly convert traffic into cash flow."
So this time, I’m not in a hurry to shout that ETH will rise.
If ecosystem income can continue to grow, then what’s really changing might be the entire logic of Ethereum’s value capture.
After all, if the chain is so lively every day but no one is making money in the end, it still feels a bit like a large self-entertainment event.
$POL $APR $ETH #波动雷达：币种异动观察 How profitable is the $SPCX primary market?
From SpaceX to Anthropic: How do you earn returns in the primary market?
Entering SpaceX in 2010 and holding until now yields about 1700-1800x; entering in 2016 yields about 170-180x; entering in early 2026, after fees, yields about 70%. For XAI, entering in the 2024 Series B round yields over 18x; entering at the 2026 merger, net returns after fees are 50%-60%.
Where does the difference come from? A 20% return in the secondary market per year is satisfactory, but the primary market is on a completely different scale. The core comes down to three things: understanding the company, finding the right channels, and timing judgment. But the most critical is pattern recognition.
SpaceX is not a tech company; it’s an infrastructure company. AI computing power demand is exploding, and there is a huge energy gap—if the current energy supply for AI is 1 unit, at least 3 units are still missing. Space infrastructure is the next bridge; Musk is building an "elevator" to space.
Wealth is not a reward for your hard work but a reward for your cognition.
How can ordinary people get in? The capital threshold is not as high as imagined; the real challenge is the ability to filter channels. For projects like SpaceX, to get into the first-tier fund, you basically need at least 100 million yuan; most people can only get into the second or third tier, and after that, the money is taken by asset management.
How to judge if a channel is reliable? Look at three points: background and experience, consistency between words and actions, and whether they are altruistic or self-serving. Truly capable people are often humble and calm, like water—"the highest good is like water."
Finally, about Anthropic. It’s about to go public. It’s already late to enter large language model companies now; twenty companies are competing for the track, and most will eventually be acquired. This is like the browser wars back then, where Google was the last survivor. Entering now means low returns and high risks; it’s not a good deal.At 22:00 tonight, BTC's $80,000 faces a real stress test: one sentence from Walsh could reprice global risk assets
The final window before Walsh's Jackson Hole debut is closing, and while the market appears to be betting on "hawk or dove," the real trade is on the future interest rate path.
The background is not easy: July PCE year-on-year still hits 3.7%, and several Fed officials including Schmid, Hammack, and Goolsbee have recently warned continuously about inflation risks; the dollar remains near a one-week high, indicating the market has not fully ruled out further tightening.
BTC is currently holding near $80,000, with the key supply zone still at 81,200–81,500 above.
Tonight, three outcomes to watch:
**Hawkish:** Emphasizing inflation and "higher rates for longer," with US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening simultaneously; if BTC breaks below $80,000, watch for support near 78,500.
**Dovish:** Downplaying the necessity of further rate hikes; if BTC breaks out with volume above 81,500, the market could reopen the $82,000–85,000 range.
**Continued ambiguity:** This might disappoint the market the most. Walsh has consistently downplayed forward guidance, and what the bond market lacks most now is clear rules.
Don't rush to guess the first candlestick tonight. What Walsh says is the expectation; how US Treasuries, the dollar, and BTC move is the real answer. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Tonight's three scenarios and their direct impact on BTC:
🦅 Scenario 1: Hawkish stance (most institutional bets, like Apollo, etc.) — clearly "no ruling out rate hikes," reprimanding the Treasury's intervention in the bond market → stronger dollar, rising US Treasury yields, short-term pressure on risk assets, BTC unlikely to remain unaffected.
🕊️ Scenario 2: Continue evasive talk (equally likely) — extensive discussion on "Fed reform framework" and "division of responsibilities with the Treasury," no clear direction on interest rates → market prices as is, crypto market returns to its own rhythm, neutral impact.
⚡ Scenario 3: Unexpected dovish tone — emphasizing employment risks, acknowledging inflation is easing → improved liquidity expectations, BTC/gold/growth stocks all benefit. But given his 3-month silence style, the market assigns only an 8% chance of "explicit rate cuts."
The final underlying thread, more important than rates: Basent's Treasury repo has already stirred the bond market, with $40 trillion in public debt pressure, the White House wants low rates, the Fed wants independence — if Walsh tonight clearly draws the "Fed vs Treasury" boundary, the dollar credit narrative will add new variables. This is the real mid-to-long-term story for BTC as an "off-system scarce asset." $BTC Wash will speak in half an hour, what should brothers pay the most attention to? $BTC
Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote speech since taking office. Core PCE inflation in July was 3.3%, higher than expected, with about a 40% chance of a rate hike in September. Tonight's focus is: Will Wash be hawkish or not?
Three possible scenarios:
Hawkish (bearish): If Wash hints at preparing to raise rates due to high inflation, or emphasizes the Fed's independence and distance from the Treasury, Treasury yields will rise, the dollar will strengthen, and Bitcoin and gold will be suppressed. BTC, which just broke 80,000, may retest 75,000 or even lower.
Dovish (bullish): If he tacitly allows the Treasury to intervene in the bond market to lower long-term rates, or only talks about structural issues without clear guidance, the market will interpret it as a "liquidity" signal, and BTC is expected to rise 2%-4%, pushing to 81,500-83,000.
Ambiguous (most likely): Wash has always disliked forward guidance and once said "the bond market should interpret data on its own." Most likely, he will only talk about reform frameworks without giving clear commitments. This "non-commitment" itself may be interpreted by the market as dovish.
My judgment: Wash personally holds over $100 million in crypto assets and clearly opposes CBDCs, so he is not an enemy of the crypto industry. But as Fed Chair, he cannot "liquefy" for the crypto circle. Tonight is more likely to be a "no conclusion" speech—there will be volatility, but directional signals will be hard to come by.
Volatility will be greatly amplified before and after the speech, coupled with today's options expiration, the probability of a double kill for bulls and bears is not low. Don't bet on direction; wait for the speech to land and the market to digest it before making moves The news is no longer reliable, the noise is too chaotic, so BTC should be directly analyzed based on the order book's underlying funds. On-chain, a giant whale address that has been dormant for over two years transferred about two thousand BTC near 78200 to a derivatives platform, but there was no corresponding selling pressure in the order book. The perpetual funding rate remains around 0.003, showing no signs of overheating. This looks more like low-level price suppression for turnover rather than liquidation. The naked candlestick on the 4-hour chart formed a double bottom around 76800, rebounded and broke through 78500, then retested without falling below it. Around 79300 has become a short-term watershed. I just finished delivering to an old community without an elevator; sweat was still dripping on the screen coming down from the sixth floor. The intraday chip accumulation shows a liquidity gap between 79800 and 80500, which, once volume increases and holds steady, can quickly be filled. In terms of operation, if the pullback between 78800 and 79000 does not break, go long with a stop loss below 78400. The first target is 80500, and if it breaks through, look to 81500. If it directly falls below 78400, it indicates a failed support, invalidating the bullish logic. Then retreat to around 76000 and wait for signals.
$BTC
#OKX预言家：豪门联赛、LCK与F1预测进行中
@OKX星球 BTC重回80800，那位40倍杠杆的大哥终于从爆仓边缘爬回来了 昨天还悬在清算线上的人，今天账面浮盈已经有146万美元，你觉得他敢止盈吗？ 我盯链上数据的时候看到这一幕，心里其实挺复杂的。这不是普通散户的仓位，是那位知名巨鲸，BTC多单40倍杠杆，名义仓位8744万美元，开仓价79449，清算价72419。BTC这一根大阳线拉上来，直接把他从地狱门口拽回了人间。 但我要说点大家可能没注意到的细节。 这个人的账户结构很有意思，不是一个赌徒式的单押，而是一个有策略的阶梯布局： - BTC 40倍杠杆，名义仓位8744万，目前浮盈约146万 - ETH 25倍杠杆，名义仓位5740万，开仓价2392，清算价2159，浮盈约218万 - HYPE 10倍杠杆，名义仓位1939万，浮盈约37万 - PUMP 10倍杠杆，名义仓位1469万，浮盈约19万 - ENA 10倍杠杆，仓位很小，基本可以忽略 总共浮盈约420万美元，但重点不是这个数字，而是他的行为模式。 他经历了近500次清算，依然坚持不撤一分利润，所有浮盈继续滚仓加仓。这种操作风格，本质上是在跟市场对赌波动节奏，赌的是趋势延续而不是The overall market rose broadly today, with most mainstream coins following the upward trend, while $SOL showed particularly restrained performance, with a pullback significantly smaller than similar assets, consistently holding above the $100 integer mark 🧐. This relative strength mainly comes from a highly anticipated "dual deflation" proposal, which is currently at a critical stage of community voting.
A closer look at the market reveals that $SOL's firmness today, resonating with the broader market rally, has actually priced in the expectation of the proposal passing in advance, showing clear signs of front-running. If the voting results fall short of expectations, considering the current price lacks sufficient adjustment, it may trigger a more intense corrective decline 📉. However, based on current support rates, the probability of the proposal passing is relatively high. After the positive news is realized, the market usually needs time to digest the gains, so the risk of a pullback from high levels should not be ignored.
At the current price level, shorting directly around $104 is not very cost-effective. If the price can inertia rally to the $105-106 range, then gradually establishing short positions would offer a higher safety margin. The market always seeks balance between expectations and reality; patiently waiting for a better entry point is often more effective than frequent trading.
Risk warning: Proposal results and market sentiment can change rapidly. Please control your position size and manage risks properly.最近圈子里流传着一张截图，某位知名博主的总收益率定格在负的百分之九十九点六一，累计亏损金额高达五百八十万。这个数字摆在眼前，多少让人有些唏嘘，也难怪评论区里一片问号，大家都在猜他是不是真的“亏完了”🤔。 翻看他的操作轨迹，其实是一条非常典型的路径：先是重仓做空比特币和以太坊，结果在行情拉升中遭遇连环爆仓；随后画风一转，开始追多这两个主流币种，有趣的是，目前这些多单居然全部处于盈利状态。这前后的反差，确实耐人寻味。 从这笔实盘记录里，我们能读出几层信息。第一，当前市场的趋势力量非常强，无论你在哪个位置追多，只要方向对了，耐心持有似乎都能等到浮盈。这种“闭眼买都赚”的氛围，恰恰是牛市情绪高涨时最直观的注脚。第二，这位博主敢于在爆仓后立刻调转方向，且仓位依然开得很大，甚至不显示强平价格，说明他的账户体量远超普通散户，那五百八十万的亏损或许只是他整个资金盘中的一小部分。 不过，越是这种看似“稳赢”的行情，越要警惕背后的脆弱性。市场情绪的切换往往就在一夜之间，今天对多头有多温柔，明天就可能对杠杆资金有多残酷。那位博主此刻的盈利单，能否撑过下一次剧烈波动，谁也说不好。毕竟，在衍生品市场里，浮盈只Ethena has proposed multiple tokenomics adjustment plans, including repurchasing locked tokens from investors, reducing VC bridge financing, advancing fee conversion and repurchase programs, etc. These proposals received 100% community support, and $ENA directly hit a new high for the year.
This is not a generic altcoin rally. Ajian believes Ethena is simultaneously addressing both supply measurement and value capture, avoiding the common mistake many projects make by focusing on only one aspect—for example, repurchasing without handling unlocking, or handling unlocking without token revenue rights. That's why $ENA's price reaction is so significant; the market has already priced in the VC bridge relief and repurchase expectations in this wave.
The next steps recommended for everyone to watch are: when implementation will occur, how much revenue will be allocated, where the repurchase funds will come from, and how the locked tokens will ultimately be handled. Until the documents are finalized, do not equate the proposals with actual cash flow #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Tonight's Jackson Hole highlight: It's not about hawks or doves, but ending the market guessing game
At 10 PM tonight, new Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first public speech at Jackson Hole since taking office.
What the market really cares about is not simply hawkish or dovish signals.
It's about ending the current chaotic situation of blindly guessing market trends, policies, and expectations.
This speech is very critical, essentially Wash's first official tone-setting and communication repair with the market.
The current macro landscape is quite contradictory.
July core PCE year-on-year is 3.3%, still far from the 2% inflation target, so pressure remains.
At the same time, initial jobless claims have fallen, employment remains strong, showing no signs of weakening.
Plus, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains stuck at multi-year highs, the overall environment does not support easing.
Moreover, several Fed officials have already publicly stated that the current 3.50%-3.75% rate range is even somewhat accommodative, implying room for further hikes.
The market's biggest uncertainties now focus on three things.
First, Wash has scrapped the traditional forward guidance on rates, effectively leaving no official policy framework.
The market has no clue which data increases will trigger hikes or under what conditions they will pause. Tonight he must provide clear criteria, or the market will remain volatile and guessing.
Second, the Treasury has recently taken significant action, doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases.
The fiscal side has deeply intervened in the long bond market; everyone is watching whether the Fed will be led by the Treasury, how responsibilities are divided, and whether the Fed can maintain independence. This directly affects future US debt and dollar pricing.
Third, the source of current inflation is unclear.
Oil prices have stabilized above $90, combined with massive ongoing capital expenditure in the AI sector, the market can't tell if this is a short-term shock or long-term structural inflation.
Wash's characterization tonight will directly determine the interest rate pricing logic for the next six months.
A simple projection of three possible market scenarios tonight.
If he clearly defines the policy framework and fiscal boundaries with a hawkish stance,
US bonds and the dollar will likely rise, while gold and Bitcoin will come under direct pressure, and previous depreciation trades will recede.
If he is vague throughout, avoiding specific rules and only speaking empty words,
market uncertainty will remain high, volatility won't stop, US bond yields will continue rising, the dollar will weaken, and gold and BTC will keep benefiting from depreciation expectations.
If he focuses on long-term narratives, discussing AI, productivity, and long-term economic structure without addressing short-term rates,
that would be a neutral outcome, with no new guidance, basically maintaining the current trend with relatively limited volatility.
Notably, the market has already started to move ahead.
Bitcoin has risen over 28% this month, firmly above 81,000.
Gold is even more dramatic, surging nearly 14% this month.
The entire market is currently trading on expectations of a weaker dollar and monetary easing.
But a critical hidden risk:
If Wash's speech tonight fails to provide a credible framework balancing inflation and financial stability, this current broad "depreciation trade" rally will be repriced, and the market could face a correction at any time.
Ultimately, tonight is not about obsessing over whether there will be a rate hike in September.
The real core is: in the new Fed era, the market will finally have a stable reference standard.
Before this, all market moves are emotional games.
$BTC $XAU BTC keeps rising, why has it stopped going up?
I still haven't closed my short position at 81,000! Honestly, I can't even remember how many times BTC surged past 80,000 only to slip back down quietly. ETH can't even hold above 2500, I’m done pretending with the upcoming market.
Right now, it's all a frenzy driven by FOMO, but with repeated false breakouts, market patience will wear thin. Time favors the bears; when sentiment reverses, that will be the signal for the bears to counterattack.
The fundamentals are even worse: this year, the CLARITY Act’s approval rate has plummeted to 14% (it was 38% a month ago), and five insider addresses on POLY are heavily betting "no" with similar tactics—those who know, know. Without legislative backing, what will BTC use to break 100,000? ETH breaking 3000? $SOL hitting 200 is just a daydream. Is this the bears’ dying fantasy or the last distribution by the main players?
Tonight, the Jackson Hole speech will set the tone; AI dividends are shifting from hardware to software, combined with options expiration battles, macro is full of signposts. BTC’s sharp rise and fall is obvious—don’t chase the highs to fuel it. Lock in your base BTC/ETH holdings, keep enough cash ready to buy the dip, survive the bull market by being cautious. The truth will be revealed soon! #沃什 #BTC #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Last night, SanDisk staged a textbook "gap-up sell-off." How are those who caught the falling knife holding up?
Last night (8/27) at the U.S. market open, SanDisk (SNDK) gave everyone a lesson:
NVIDIA reported revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, and gave guidance a year ahead; Kioxia and SanDisk announced a joint investment of 5 trillion yen—double blockbuster positive news, pushing the pre-market up 5%.
And the result? Opened up 3.3% (1,549) → surged to 1,549 → surged to 1,558 → huge volume sell-off breaking 1,500 → lowest at 1,500 → lowest at 1,456, with a 6.8% swing and nearly $5 billion in volume. Double positive news, but closed in the red.
This is a classic "gap-up sell-off day": the bigger the good news, the easier it is for big money to exit. On Monday, SanDisk was already down 9% (rumors of Apple sourcing Chinese memory chips), last night was the second round of stress testing.
Remember three points:
① For stocks that gap up more than 3%, watch the selling pressure in the first 30 minutes before deciding whether to chase
② If you enter below the intraday average price, you’ll be stuck all day
③ The right move on a sell-off day is to wait and see, not to bottom-fish
Did you enter last night? Share your stop-loss level in the comments. (Data as of 8/27 U.S. market intraday, not investment advice) $SNDK $SNDK
Even though the stock price surged by as much as 3,105% over the past year, the data is very counterintuitive; it is still "undervalued" relative to its peers.
Micron Technology $MU has a slightly higher P/E ratio than SanDisk, at 21 times, but its growth rate also lags behind SanDisk.
Although such annual gains make everyone want to short for a revenge rally in the short term, considering its overall value, it’s more practical to short other concept tech stocks.
Mainly pay attention to the price (if you really want to trade SanDisk since high volatility offers more opportunities): if it can retake 1,500, call hedging might actually drive the price up.$SNDK Why am I not in a hurry to enter SanDisk tonight?
Today it's not because the company's fundamentals suddenly worsened or there is bad news, but because the sector is cutting valuations. Although Marvell's earnings and guidance are good, its stock price fell sharply, and then AI storage stocks like SanDisk, Micron, and Lumentum were dragged down together.
So tonight SNDK is very likely to experience: index and AI sector sentiment impacting the storage sector and then affecting SNDK in this linkage.
Moreover, there is also the macro variable of the Federal Reserve Chair's speech at Jackson Hole tonight. Tech stocks in the US market are prone to significant intraday volatility today, so there is no rush for now.
If there is a direction and position, Brother Bai will share it immediately
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $NVDA $MU $SNDK
Brothers, take a look at SanDisk before the market opens.
Closed at 1499, pre-market directly dropped to around 1453, down 2.5%. Yesterday it surged nearly 9 points, but today a bearish candle in pre-market took back quite a bit.
News:
Kioxia and SanDisk announced plans to invest over $31 billion in Japan, continuing until 2032, mainly for expansion of the Yokkaichi and Kitakami factories. Traditionally, expansion is considered bearish, but the market now interprets it as "extreme confidence in future demand," so it’s being treated as a bullish catalyst. Moody’s also upgraded SanDisk’s corporate family rating from B1 to Ba1 with a stable outlook.
However, weakness in pre-market is also a fact. Not just SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital, SK Hynix, and Seagate all fell over 2%, the entire storage sector cooled off collectively. Pre-market liquidity is thin, and the hot money that chased the rally yesterday is cashing out today, amplifying the decline. Two reasons: one is Nvidia siphoning off a large amount of liquidity, the other is profit-taking after the positive news hit the market. SanDisk is less attractive to me than before. The trends for Bitcoin and Ethereum are clear and directional, making them easier to trade.
SanDisk still has the same problem — high volatility and emotional swings, with no clear logic behind the ups and downs. So the right attitude is necessary: trade cautiously and set stop losses properly.
The best strategy is to wait for a pullback after the market opens before entering. Whether it goes up or down today, it will definitely give a retracement opportunity in the short term. The profit margin might not be great if you misjudge the trend, but it’s stable. If you’re interested in SanDisk, you can watch for the post-open pullback range to enter trades; this approach should help you.I really don't understand this market.
I took a spin around the community today and almost thought I had traveled through time.
Jiang Zhuoer is shouting, "ETH ETF inflows hit new highs again, the high-level consolidation with continuously raised lows is relatively stable, ready to explode short positions upward at any time."
Someone else said, "US spot ETF net inflows last week were $697 million, the strongest single-week inflow since 2026."
Others are shouting, "ETH returns to $2500, maintaining above this level means a trend reversal."
Each piece of news is more intense than the last, and the screenshots are flashier.
Looking at all these bullish statements, I almost started doubting if I was reading the market wrong.
But what about the price?
ETH is currently at 2497, down 0.94% in 24 hours. It has been grinding down from 2535 to 2497, neither going up nor down.
All kinds of positive news have been shouted for over two weeks, yet the price is still hovering around 2500.
Do you really think this looks like a breakout?
As for me, the more I watch, the more something feels off.
Let's look at a more intriguing data point.
Data from August 28 shows ETH's two weighted funding rates are 0.0027% and 0.0039%, both in bearish territory.
Less than a week ago, ETH was in bullish territory, now it has directly fallen back to bearish. The contract market's pricing power over ETH is shifting.
What does it mean when "the news is bullish but the contract market prices it bearish"?
Also, those saying the market will break 80,000, today BTC is at $79,564, up only 1.24% in 24 hours.
The market is stuck near $80,000; BTC can't rise, so ETH will hardly thrive alone.
That analysis said a 30% weekly rise from 1900 straight to 2530, but the daily RSI has reached 75 in the overbought zone, and funding rates turned positive to an annualized 11%.
Is this a just-started main upward wave?
No, this is a high-level digestion phase. Also, the 2500-2550 range has been tested three times without breaking through.
The more news there is without a price rise, that itself is a signal.
Those who should buy have already bought, those who should shout have shouted, now it's just waiting for a direction.
As an altcoin trader, I've seen too many of these "bullish bombardments with a stagnant market" scripts, and they all end with a sudden crash.
The more news there is without a price rise, that itself is a signal.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $xSNDK Tonight's NVDA close is crucial!
24h decline -4.85%, underlying SNDK closed at $1484.95 on August 27, down -0.96%, discount -1.42%, overall risk controllable.
Before last night's $xNVDA earnings release, SanDisk pre-market once rose over 4%.
But NVDA weakened after hours, dropping 3%, directly dragging down the entire storage sector.
Today xSNDK opened down -4.85%, equivalent to factoring in last night's weak US stock market performance.
The fundamental logic has not changed.
The long-term contract narrative released on August 14 during Investor Day still holds, with gross margin at 80%, operating profit margin at 75%, locking in a minimum revenue of 93.9 billion, plus a 15.5 billion stock repurchase plan.
Wall Street institutions' average target price is $2125, corresponding to an upside potential of 41.73%, with a cumulative increase of 518% year-to-date.
Tonight's performance of NVDA in the US market will be an important indicator.
If NVDA falls back 3-5%, SanDisk will likely follow and weaken synchronously.
We need to wait until the US market closes tonight; xSNDK will only show a clear direction tomorrow.
From an operational perspective, those entering in the 1500-1700 range need not panic excessively.
Today's pullback mainly comes from emotional disturbance caused by NVDA's earnings report, not from any fundamental issues with SanDisk itself.
If you want to add positions, you can wait for a pullback to the $1300-1400 range before considering.
It is not recommended to blindly chase before NVDA's US market close tonight.
Wait until tomorrow's Asian session to observe the linkage direction among SK Hynix, MU, and SNDK, then make subsequent judgments. $SKHYNIX BTC holding near $79,430 while ETH is flat and SOL only modestly firmer suggests positioning is cautious, not convincingly risk-on. The market looks more like it is absorbing the BTC options expiry test than beginning a broad breakout.
My bias is that macro headlines around Hormuz and the contrast between gold and BTC ETF flows will matter more than small intraday moves. Until participation widens beyond BTC, I would treat strength as consolidation rather than a durable expansion in risk appetite.
Not advice, just analysis.Today is a big day for crypto.
Not because $BTC is hovering near $80,000. Not because $ETH is still arguing with $2,500. Those levels already told you the market is waiting. The event is Warsh at Jackson Hole, 10 AM ET.
That speech is the first real policy tell since this range got built. Markets have September priced at 66.3% chance of a pause and 33.7% chance of a hike. That is not a market that knows. That is a market split enough to whip both ways on a single paragraph.
So the setup is not complicated. It is violent.
If Warsh sounds dovish inflation cooling, no rush to tighten, room for easier conditions risk gets permission. BTC can reclaim $80k and stay there. ETH can stop leaking under $2,500 and look at $2,530 again. Alts that have been probing can actually follow.
If he sounds hawkish inflation still too sticky, financial conditions not tight enough, hike still on the table the range breaks the other way. BTC tests $79k first. ETH loses $2,480 and $2,400 comes back into the conversation. The names that only pumped because BTC looked strong get sold first.
The dangerous version is the mixed one. Soft headline, hard details. One sentence that gives bulls a candle, then a line that takes it back. That is how both sides get cleaned on a Fed day. Pump into the speech, dump through the stops, or the reverse.
This is why the last 24 hours felt stuck. ETF bid was there. Options expiry already printed this morning. Price still refused to choose. It was waiting for this.
I am not treating 66.3% as safety. A “pause” price can still sell off if the chair talks like a hike is coming later. I am not treating 33.7% as certain doom either. Markets fade the first reaction as often as they follow it.
What I am treating as certain is volatility.
Watch the language, not the first tick. Watch yields. Watch whether BTC can hold $80k after the words land, not during them. ETH will tell you faster if the bid was real or just borrowed.
Big day. Two roads. Don’t let the first candle make the decision for you. At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The reason for the high attention is:
1. High inflation and rising expectations of rate hikes.
The current federal funds rate is 3.75%, with three dissenters supporting a rate hike at the July meeting. Core PCE inflation is at 3.3%, overall PCE at 3.7%, well above the 2% target. CME data shows about a 40% chance of a rate hike in September—the market is discussing not rate cuts, but whether another rate hike will be forced.
Walsh's "communication deficit" issue. Since taking office, Walsh's style has been mysterious—he dislikes forward guidance and is reluctant to make forecasts. The July press conference was widely criticized as a "communication failure" due to vague remarks, triggering the most severe bond market sell-off in years, with the 30-year US Treasury yield soaring to its highest since 2007. Tonight is seen as a key window for him to restore credibility.
---
2. Three scenarios and market impact simulations
Scenario 1: Hawkish (probability about 30-40%)
Walsh clearly states readiness to hike rates if inflation remains high, emphasizing determination to fight inflation.
Assets Possible reactions
US stocks Growth stocks with high valuations (especially tech stocks) under pressure, S&P 500 may experience severe volatility
Cryptocurrency BTC fluctuates 2-3% bidirectionally, expected around 80,500
US bonds Short-term rates rise, yield curve flattens
US dollar Strengthens
Gold Short-term pullback
Scenario 2: Dovish (probability about 7-16%)
Walsh only discusses structural issues (productivity, demographics, payment innovation), signaling no rate hike.
Assets Possible reactions
US stocks Likely to gain new upward momentum
Cryptocurrency BTC expected to rise 2-4%, moving toward 83,000
US bonds Long-term yields decline
Scenario 3: Ambiguous/Avoidance (probability about 45-53%, market baseline expectation)
Walsh repeats vague remarks, replaying the July scenario. Bank of America survey shows 53% of respondents expect a neutral speech. Standard Chartered warns: if no guidance is given, the market will "react very badly."
Assets Possible reactions
US stocks Uncertainty premium rises, volatility intensifies
Cryptocurrency Possible "fakeout"—spikes up and down then returns to original level
US bonds 30-year yield may be pushed to 5.5% or higher
Gold Benefits from intensified depreciation trades and continues to strengthen
---
3. Current market pricing and key observation points
Before the speech, Bitcoin is about 2,490; S&P 500 futures basically flat, Nasdaq futures down 0.3%; 30-year US Treasury yield about 5.19%.
Polymarket bets show: 70% probability of holding rates steady in September, 29% betting on a 25 basis point hike.
Four key details the market cares about:
1. Under what conditions will Walsh adjust rates? (policy reaction mechanism)
2. Is a rate hike still an option? (rate tool positioning)
3. Is the surge in long-term yields a "desirable phenomenon" or a "risk premium"? (qualitative assessment of bond market volatility)
4. Is the 2% inflation target unchanged? (inflation target anchoring)
---
4. Comprehensive judgment
Most likely scenario: Walsh is between hawkish and ambiguous—leaving the possibility of a rate hike but making no commitment, holding rates steady in September. If core PCE remains above 3%, a hike in Q4 or early 2027 becomes possible.
If there is an unexpected outcome: clear hawkish → short-term pressure on tech stocks and crypto markets; clear dovish → risk assets rebound; ambiguous again → bond market may "punish" Walsh first, then transmit to all risk assets.
Tonight's speech is not just about "saying something," but a critical test of whether Walsh can rebuild market trust with a coherent, verifiable policy framework.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ To summarize the current situation between the US and Iran, simply put, Trump wants to use his allies to exert final pressure on Iran, seeking opportunities and initiative in negotiations. The premise is that the likelihood of the US taking action against Iran in the near future is very low, as Trump himself and the US military have already confirmed. But facing a hardline Iran, how can the US force Iran back to the negotiating table and gain the initiative? The situation is simple: economic sanctions are leveraged. The U.S. unilateral sanctions are insufficient, and Trump wants to mobilize U.S.-affiliated allies to impose comprehensive sanctions on Iran. Trump does not want to negotiate with Iran, but what he hopes is that Iran will yield and negotiate with the U.S. under the "barrel of the gun." Trump directly rejected the 60-day ceasefire agreement, which was a condition set by the previous memorandum of understanding. Trump does not want to fully implement it, as many of these are just empty promises. Iran not only demands full implementation but also adds additional conditions and has established political and practical control and regulation over the Strait of Hormuz. Given this situation, I don't know if Trump will change his strategic direction, but I can be sure that if economic sanctions still fail, Trump will basically have no "cards" available. Clearly, this issue is not solely a one-sided problem by the US or Iran. To start negotiations, Iran needs to downgrade the terms and the US to slow down its stance. Regional mediators are well aware of this, so recently Qatar and other mediators have frequently communicated with Iran, becoming a bridge for communication between the US and Iran. #伊朗开放临时航道, the US refuses to restore the old agreement. In my view, it wants to facilitate negotiationsJackson Hole (Wash) Speech, Complete Analysis of US Stocks + Crypto Circle
Current Background: Core PCE inflation stickiness, very close to the September FOMC meeting; tonight's speech key focus: inflation stance, how long high interest rates will be maintained, whether to keep the option of rate hikes, directly repricing US Treasury yields, US tech stocks, memory chips, BTC/ETH all disturbed
Scenario 1: Hawkish Bias (Higher Probability)
Speech Keywords: Inflation still has upside risks, high interest rates maintained longer, no ruling out further hikes, insist on data-driven approach, reject easing signals.
1. US Stocks: US Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens. Nasdaq, AI chip stocks, memory sector (Hynix, SanDisk) under pressure and pull back; value and defensive sectors relatively resilient. Growth stock valuations compressed.
2. Crypto Circle:
BTC under pressure testing 74800 support, ETH testing 2240. If BlackRock ETF can still maintain net inflows, it can buffer some of the decline; once ETF inflows weaken, the correction will deepen.
Altcoins (SOL, ZEC) fall much more than BTC, large-scale contract liquidations.
Market: prone to rapid dips, Friday options expiry further amplifies volatility.
Scenario 2: Neutral Balance (Secondary Probability)
Speech Keywords: Acknowledge stubborn inflation while seeing economic weakening; no rate hike signals, no rate cut signals, all left to subsequent data, no clear path given.
1. US Stocks: After sharp fluctuations in US Treasuries and dollar, convergence; Nasdaq and chip sectors fluctuate widely with no clear one-way direction, market awaits upcoming nonfarm payroll and inflation data.
2. Crypto Circle:
BTC, ETH maintain current large range oscillation 74800-80000, 2240-2500. Speech moment may cause stop-loss hunting spikes up and down, typical buy the rumor sell the fact, high chance of pullback after spike, hard to start a breakout rally directly.
Altcoins short-term pulses, no sustainability.
Scenario 3: Super-Expectations Dovish (Low Probability)
Speech Keywords: Emphasize economic and employment downside risks, inflation pressure controllable, hint at excluding rate hikes in September, release future easing window.
1. US Stocks: US Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens; Nasdaq, Nvidia, memory chips collectively rebound, growth stock valuations recover.
2. Crypto Circle:
BTC attempts to reclaim 80000, challenges 81500-83000 resistance; ETH challenges 2500-2550. Requires spot volume + ETF funds cooperation, volume-less spike still a false breakout.
High beta altcoins collectively rebound, elasticity fully released.
Current Market Real Constraints
1. ETF is the most important buffer in crypto: same hawkish speech, if ETF continues net inflows, correction is controllable; if ETF outflows simultaneously, it evolves into a mid-level correction.
2. On-chain dormant wallet selling pressure is secondary; macro liquidity priority > on-chain signals.
3. Special timing on Friday: speech coincides with weekly options expiry, then immediately weekend, bank fiat channels close, weekend liquidity poor, spikes and false breakouts increase, do not treat weekend low liquidity prices as trend confirmation.
Key Observation Signals
1. Speech original keywords: inflation risk, high interest rates maintained longer, whether to keep rate hike option.
2. Synchronous indicators: 2-year US Treasury yield, US dollar index.
3. BTC/ETH spot ETF fund flows.
4. Key price levels: BTC support 74800; ETH support 2240.
Summary
Tonight's speech will not directly change the long-term major trend but will reprice September Fed expectations.
• Hawkish: US tech stocks pull back, crypto tests key supports;
• Neutral: entire market remains volatile, bulls and bears both active;
• Dovish: risk assets see repair rebound.
Even if short-term sharp volatility occurs, true trend confirmation requires watching funds and closing prices 1-2 trading days after the speech ends, do not be misled by momentary spikes.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ ETH is about to take off, and the key depends on these data points!
Recently, ETH's trend has become interesting. The price has returned to around $2500, but compared to BTC, ETH's strength still needs further confirmation.
My current judgment on ETH is: moderately bullish in the mid-term, cautious in the short term.
What will truly impact ETH next is not just the candlestick charts, but U.S. macroeconomic data.
Pay special attention to the September 4th Nonfarm Payrolls, September 10th PPI, September 11th CPI, and the Federal Reserve meetings on September 15-16. If employment weakens and inflation cools down, market expectations for rate cuts will rise, and high Beta assets like ETH could benefit significantly.
Conversely, if inflation again exceeds expectations, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue to strengthen, ETH will face considerable short-term pressure.
So what I’m most focused on now is not how much ETH can rise, but:
After BTC stabilizes, can ETH start to outperform BTC?
If ETH/BTC begins to reverse, and capital and trading volume follow, that will be a truly significant signal.
Whether ETH can break out this round depends heavily on the data in September. $ETH Last night, news spread quickly: California AB 2409 has passed both houses of the state legislature and is only awaiting the governor's signature. Many people saw "ban on Meme coins" and immediately thought California was preparing a blanket ban.
Actually, it's not that extreme. This bill mainly regulates two things.
California public officials, as well as some employees with government contract decision-making authority, are prohibited from issuing Meme coins themselves. Digital asset platforms are also not allowed to list Meme coins issued after January 1, 2027, that are launched or co-launched by U.S. federal, state, or local public officials to California residents.
Ordinary people issuing dog coins or cat coins are not the main targets of this crackdown. Existing coins like DOGE and SHIB will not be automatically delisted because of this bill.
From a market perspective, this news has little short-term impact on $BTC and $ETH, and it is not directly negative for the entire Meme sector. The first to be affected will be political coins that want to replicate the $TRUMP model in the future, as well as centralized platforms willing to provide trading access for these coins.
On-chain transactions are obviously hard to completely block. Once tokens are issued, they can still be transferred and may appear on decentralized exchanges. Regulation is easier to enforce on platform access for California users, including listing, purchasing, and account services.
The bill is still waiting for the governor's signature. Only after signing will it be enforced according to the final text. For ordinary Meme coin players, there is no need to scare themselves right now.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ First of all, what is Jackson Hole❓ It is essentially not a “Fed meeting.” There are no votes, no interest rate decisions, no rate hike or cut buttons. It is actually: an annual closed-door academic symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City for top central bankers and economists worldwide. The official history dates back to 1978. Now, only about 120 people attend each year, including: major central bank governors worldwide, Federal Reserve officials, treasury officials, top economists, representatives from international institutions like the IMF and BIS, and financial institution personnel. Moreover, it is not a large financial expo with thousands sitting in a hall listening to speeches; it is quite small in scale and has a strong “policy circle internal discussion” nature. Against the current backdrop of the U.S. economy facing “stagflation” risks, with inflation high on one side and economic slowdown on the other, will Fed Chair Waller’s debut at Jackson Hole continue to be vague and muddled? Or will he speak plainly and set the tone❓ 🎯 Tonychoo’s baseline scenario prediction: “Inflation remains the Fed’s top priority, but structural changes brought by AI/productivity deserve reassessment; current policy remains restrictive, the Fed will not pre-commit to future rate cuts or hikes, and will continue to judge based on data.” Translated into plain language: “I’m not ready to announce what we’ll do in September tonight, but don’t rush to bet that the Fed will immediately ease.” This is: 🦅 70% hawkish wording ⚖️ 30% leaving a backdoor for the economy and markets 🦢 But I think there might be a “black swan scenario” tonight if Waller suddenly🚨 Bitcoin is standing at the exact level where the last two cycles broke down.
Three cycles. Same setup. 👀
2018: +47% from the June low → breaks the Bull Market Support Band → rejected at the 50W SMA → new Q4 low.
2022: +46% from the January low → breaks the band → rejected at the 50W SMA → new Q4 low.
2026: +40% from the June low → band already broken → now sitting right on the 50W SMA at $81,088.
And here’s the scary part…
#DailyOrbit Options whales are forcing you off the ride, and the Fed Chair is delivering the finishing blow
At 4 PM, $BTC options worth 6.4 billion USD will expire and settle.
Many see more call options than put options and become blindly optimistic—don’t celebrate too early.
The biggest pain point for this BTC options expiry is at 68000, while the current price is 79000, a full 11000 points apart.
From the option sellers’ perspective, they hope the price crashes back to 68000 to wipe out a large number of long call options; meanwhile, option buyers desperately defend the 80000 level, continuing the upward battle.
Over 500 million USD worth of call positions are stacked in the 75000-80000 range, which is a powder keg ready to explode, likely causing violent fluctuations around the expiry.
In contrast, $ETH is much milder, with the biggest pain point at 2200, spot price at 2490, only a 300 USD difference, making the intensity of the battle much weaker compared to BTC.
Comparing the two, it’s clear that the side under more pressure and more anxious today is actually the BTC bulls.
On one hand, options expiry and institutional battles are stirring the market, trying every trick to force retail traders off; on the other hand, the Fed Chair’s speech is still pending, and macro news could strike again at any moment.
The double event overlap will sharply amplify short-term volatility, so avoid heavy directional bets and prioritize risk management.
⚠️This is only a personal market interpretation and does not constitute investment advice
$BTC $ETH