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The market is undergoing a quiet tug-of-war. $BTC hovers around $80,000, $ETH fluctuates around $2,500. This sideways movement is not hesitation but a recalibration of understanding by bulls and bears on the same question: when liquidity will truly shift, and whether new capital will come. The answer lies in these two places. First is the Jackson Hole annual meeting. The market has long digested rate cuts themselves; what they are really waiting for is how the Fed defines the current economic playbook. If the wording leans dovish, emphasizing employment pressures and controlled inflation, and the dollar and Treasury yields fall, the upside for risk assets will open up; Conversely, if inflation remains stubborn, the market will have to revise expectations again, and the current build-up period could turn into a deeper correction. Therefore, what the market is waiting for is not a specific outcome but a new narrative framework. Second is the flow of ETF funds. Last week, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, while Ethereum saw $697 million. The data alone is indeed encouraging. But the market is an expectation machine and won't pay a premium for what has already happened. A real breakout requires capital inflows to form positive feedback: rising prices attract capital, which then drives prices further. The $79,000 to $82,000 range is both a chip-dense zone and a confidence test. A high-volume breakout signals the formation of a cycle, while sustained resistance indicates the narrative is hard to sustain. Looking deeper, crypto assets are caught between the dual identities of "digital gold" and "high-risk assets." When liquidity tightens, it leads the decline and is accommodatingFederal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's first major speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. The official Fed schedule confirms the speech time as 10:00 AM Eastern Time.
There is already a fairly clear signal: Warsh is hawkish. He emphasized that inflation is still significantly away from the 2% target, and if inflation does not continue to decline, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. He also believes current financial conditions are not tight enough. After the speech, the market's probability of a rate hike in September rose significantly.
Regarding the crypto $BTC market
Short-term bearish, and volatility is likely to increase tonight.
The logic is simple:
Hawkish → US Treasury yields ↑ → USD ↑ → Rate cut expectations ↓ → BTC/ETH under pressure
Especially if Warsh clearly signals tonight that "rate hikes may still occur in September or even by the end of the year," BTC and ETH are likely to first see a sell-off followed by a look for capital support.
Conversely, if he only emphasizes "data dependency" without further strengthening rate hike expectations, the market may rebound after the negative news is priced in.
My judgment: Tonight is not suitable for guessing the direction in advance. Focus on whether the first round of rally/dip after the speech is supported by capital.
In short: The biggest risk tonight is not the speech itself, but "hawkishness exceeding expectations." Currently, the crypto market leans ★★★★☆ bearish.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Today's capital flow in the US market shows an intriguing signal📊. According to reports, Bitwise's ETP products attracted nearly $100 million in net inflows in a single day, but this money did not flow solely into Bitcoin; instead, it showed a clear tiered allocation.
Among them, Solana led with about $40 million inflow, Bitcoin followed closely with about $22 million, HYPE took about $20 million, XRP received about $12 million, and Ethereum was relatively flat, recording only about $1.4 million.
The information revealed by this data may be more interesting than the total amount itself. Bitcoin remains the cornerstone of crypto assets, but funds did not stop there; they clearly spread toward high-volatility, high-elasticity targets like SOL and HYPE. This is not simply new capital entering the market but more like active rebalancing of existing funds across sectors, with investors using real money to express their pursuit of higher risk-reward ratios.
It is worth noting that this differentiation also means market consensus is not yet fully unified. Funds are probing multiple tracks, which is both a diversification away from reliance on a single asset and implies divergence in expectations for subsequent market trends. In the short term, such rotation may continue to amplify altcoin volatility.
Risk warning: ETP capital flows only reflect part of institutional behavior and do not constitute a comprehensive market signal. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; please interpret the data rationally and make decisions cautiously. $SOL $BTC $HYPE $XRP $ETHFederal Reserve Chair Wash's speech today may be a short-term turning point for BTC.
In the past 10 days, BTC has rebounded quickly from a low, once again surpassing $81,000. The market had already started trading on rate cut expectations and even hoped this rebound would continue to break higher.
But tonight, Wash's stance was clearly hawkish.
He emphasized that inflation is still far from the 2% target, and if inflation does not continue to decline, the Federal Reserve still "has work to do," implying the possibility of further rate hikes.
After the speech, BTC fell back to around $79,000.
I believe the most critical issue for BTC now is not whether the bull market is over, but whether this rebound can withstand the Federal Reserve's renewed tightening expectations.
In the short term, the $80,000 level has become a key battleground between bulls and bears. If BTC can quickly reclaim and hold above $80,000, it indicates the market has sufficiently digested the hawkish speech, and there is still a chance to continue challenging higher.
But if it continues to fall below $80,000, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields keep strengthening, then this rebound should be watched carefully as it may mark the "end of the rebound."
So going forward, I will focus on three things:
Whether BTC can firmly stand above $80,000 again;
Whether the Federal Reserve's September rate expectations continue to turn hawkish;
Whether US inflation data can truly come down.
Currently, my view is: cautious in the short term, but the medium-term trend is not completely broken yet.
#BTC #Bitcoin #FederalReserve #Cryptocurrency #OKX#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC $ETH $OKB
The Chair (Federal Reserve Chair Wash) spoke last night, overall hawkish, which is bearish for risk assets.
1. Inflation hasn't fundamentally come down enough
He said recent inflation data was "better than expected," but that doesn't mean the underlying trend has substantially improved. He also said unless confident inflation is rapidly moving toward the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." This effectively raises the bar for rate cuts.
2. Complains the current financial environment isn't tight enough
He directly said, "It's hard to describe the overall financial environment as having a tightening effect," meaning the current interest rate level is not high enough in his view and hasn't truly restrained the economy. This implies further tightening may be needed.
3. Breaking tradition, no "feeding" the market
In previous years, the Fed Chair would give some policy direction at Jackson Hole, but this time he directly avoided discussing rate trajectory, saying the Fed shouldn't pre-announce actions. Without "forward guidance," the market can only guess blindly, increasing volatility.
Market reaction was also direct
Once the speech was out, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded in a V-shape, and the market's probability of a September rate hike jumped 6 percentage points. The dollar strengthened, which is real pressure on risk assets like BTC.
So now the market worries not about late rate cuts, but possibly more hikes, which is a real bearish factor for the crypto space. Previously, BTC's rise from 62k to 79k was supported by liquidity expectations from the Treasury buying long bonds; now with the Chair's stance, short-term risk appetite will definitely be suppressed. Jackson Hole Speech Interpretation on Gold (XAUUSDT)
Key Points of the Speech (Hawkish Bias)
1. Inflation Priority: The 2% PCE inflation target is fixed and unshakable; the pace of inflation decline is slower than expected, and price stability is the primary task of monetary policy.
2. Weakened Forward Guidance: No longer providing the market with advance interest rate commitments; all depends on real-time subsequent data; did not explicitly say there will be a rate hike in September but rejected expectations of rate cuts.
3. Assessment of Strong Economic Resilience: Current monetary policy is not considered "sufficiently restrictive," implying rates may remain high and further tightening is not ruled out.
Market Reaction After the Speech:
• US Dollar Index surged briefly, US Treasury yields rose
• Gold plunged directly, quickly dropping from around 4600 to a low near 4550
• Probability of a September rate hike jumped from 34% to nearly 50%, with the market repricing "higher rates maintained longer"
Fundamental Logic Breakdown
✅ Bearish for Gold (Short-term)
The US dollar and Treasury yields rose; gold is a non-yielding asset, and a high interest rate environment suppresses gold prices. The market had been speculating on future rate cuts, but the speech shattered easing hopes, bringing correction pressure to gold at high levels.
✅ Bullish for Gold (Medium to Long-term Fundamentals Remain)
1. Global central banks' continued gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US's massive fiscal deficit remain underlying factors unchanged by the speech.
2. The lack of rate commitments means if subsequent data weakens, easing expectations can return; this is not a complete entry into a sustained rate hike cycle. Recent on-chain data shows that a batch of Bitcoin wallets dormant for over a decade have begun to awaken. In the past ten days, addresses that had not moved since 2011 to 2014 transferred about 553.59 BTC, valued at over $40 million 💰 based on reference prices.
This news easily sparks speculation, but a key distinction must be clarified: whale asset movement does not equal selling. Currently, these coins have been transferred to unknown addresses, with no evidence pointing to direct selling or profit-taking. Possible scenarios include wallet consolidation, custody migration, security management, or preparation for a future transaction. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that they may eventually convert into seller liquidity.
What truly deserves attention is the significance of this dormant supply. BTC that has not moved for ten years is fundamentally different from coins actively circulating in the market. When such ancient supply suddenly awakens, the market's perception of liquidity changes accordingly, especially now as BTC approaches a critical resistance level, making this activity even more noteworthy 👀.
I do not view this transfer as a sell signal. Three points need to be observed going forward: first, whether more ancient wallets are awakened, as a single anomaly may be isolated, while a large-scale awakening carries more weight; second, the direction of funds, as transfers to exchanges versus private wallets have vastly different implications; third, how the price reacts, since on-chain activity is most meaningful when it resonates with market trends. $BTC
Risk warning: On-chain movements do not equal market direction. Please view rationally and be aware of volatility risks. $BTC Walsh has a dual attitude towards Bitcoin:
· On a personal level, he may be friendly: he has historically held multiple crypto assets and called Bitcoin the "new gold for people under 40," showing a high level of personal awareness.
· On a policy level, it is bearish: his primary task is to control inflation, so he must tighten liquidity (balance sheet reduction or high interest rates), which is the "nemesis" of a crypto market bull run.
Therefore, the market pays more attention to his actions as the Federal Reserve Chair (which affect liquidity) rather than his personal crypto holdings preferences. During Walsh's tenure, Bitcoin's trend may depend more on inflation data and the actual policy pace of the Federal Reserve.$CRM (Salesforce) — Closed at $252.05, up +22.58% for the day
$CRM rose 22.58% today, with an intraday high of $254.48 and a low of $231, trading volume around 55.41 million shares.
Why can a traditional enterprise software company regain such high attention because of AI?
Because the AI that enterprises are truly willing to pay for is not necessarily a chat model, but a tool that can directly connect customer data, sales processes, and business data.
$CRM's advantage lies in enterprise data and customer relationships. If AI agents can help customers improve sales efficiency, it could bring new subscription revenue.
But after rising more than 20% today, the market has already priced in a lot of optimistic expectations.
$231 is the support after the gap up, and around $254.50 is resistance. The focus going forward is not to chase the gains, but to see if stable turnover can be maintained above the gap.
I am Yuvi. The AI story has been accepted by the market; the next step is to see if customers are willing to pay for it long-term. Resetting the threshold for rate hikes + refusing to give hawkish promises to the market—this is the theme of Wash's speech tonight. Although Wash did not lock in the probability of a September rate hike, he clearly told the market that current rates are not restrictive enough for financial markets, opening up the possibility of a rate hike, especially with the strengthening of the 2% inflation target, which deeply plunged the market into concerns about a rate hike in September. After Wash's speech, the CME swap rate showed a 45.7% chance of a rate hike in September, while traders assessed the probability of a rate hike at 50%! Actually, the core of Wash's speech tonight was still to keep interest rates high in the market. Although the probability of a rate hike in September has increased, I still don't think it will actually happen, because current rates don't affect tech stocks' financing. But for real estate, retail, and other real economy companies, high financing costs are fatal. The current crisis can still be delayed, and if rates continue, these companies will inevitably have to pay a heavy price. So, as I said before, Wash's attempt to guide the market to keep rates high is not only because the data itself lacks sufficient evidence for rate cuts, but more so because Wash's task force needs time to set up a new data mix to support rate cuts. Before the Wash's working group releases data, unless inflation continues to decline, Washey may really have to maintain a hawkish stance and keep the market high in interest rates. Of course, aside from Walsh's own monetary policy, market expectations remain valid. To lower rate hike expectations, aside from August inflation, employment, and economic data, the most direct factor is that energy prices can quickly return to normal. #沃什今晚亮相杰现在的行情，追涨的人最难受，震荡里做波段的人最舒服，而真正在布局的人，往往安静得不像话。 你有没有想过，当所有人都在盯盘口、猜插针的时候，真正值钱的筹码，其实是在没人讨论的角落里被慢慢捡走的？ 我最近在看 OKB，不是因为它涨了，而是因为它还没有涨出该有的样子。这不是一个短线博弈的故事，而是一个关于"提前站队"的思考。 先说说我观察到的节奏。现在的市场，明显处于一种"高位洗筹+局部热点轮动"的混合状态，大饼在区间里来回试探，山寨则各自为战，情绪变得特别敏感，稍微有点风吹草动就集体抖动。这种阶段，最忌讳的就是频繁换仓、追着涨幅跑，因为你的对手盘，往往是比你更有耐心的资金。 回到 OKB 本身，很多人只把它当成一个交易所的平台币，觉得它跟 BTC 的联动性弱，没什么想象力。但我觉得，市场低估了 OKX 正在铺的那张网——XLayer。这玩意儿是基于 Polygon CDK 做的 Layer 2，兼容 EVM，成本低，扩展性强，最关键的是它跟交易所、钱包、DeFi 产品是深度绑定的。这不是一个孤立的技术叙事，而是一条"交易流量 + 链上应用 + 代币效用"的闭环路径。 如果 XLayer 能$SNDK此前那波靠集中资金快速拉抬、短期爆拉的暴力行情，从历史最高点直接开启零承接式的断崖下杀，整体回撤幅度稳稳超过99%，盘面全程被源源不断的早期筹码分销抛压死死压制，根本撑不住几个小时就会被砸穿。
同赛道$BICO、$BEAT、$ALLO、$KAITO、$APR，全都精准接住了本轮市场释放的宽松流动性带来的主动买盘，节奏清晰$SNDK半分板块轮动的红利都没吃到，完全脱离了整个赛道的上涨节奏，反而还困在自己的独立下跌通道里，沿着短期均线持续阴跌不止。当前盘面没有经过多轮充分换手、盲目进场赌反转的风险已经拉到了极高的位置#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键
Cost is the real game-changer. Broadcom CEO Chen Fuyang confirmed that the inference cost of Jalapeño is about 50% lower than mainstream GPUs. SemiAnalysis estimates that the total cost of ownership per chip per hour for Jalapeño is $1.56, on par with the H100's $1.55, while Vera Rubin reaches as high as $3.61. OpenAI hardware lead Richard Ho bluntly stated that as long as production scales up and cost savings meet expectations, more inference workloads will be handled by self-developed chips.
NVIDIA remains the partner on the training side; Jalapeño is currently only responsible for inference. However, OpenAI is building a full-stack iterative closed loop of "model-chip-memory" collaboration—each generation of chips iterates synchronously with the model, something NVIDIA as a third-party supplier cannot achieve.
OpenAI has proven that leading model vendors can reduce inference costs and improve gross margins through self-developed chips. NVIDIA's general-purpose GPU dominance is being cracked from within by its largest customer.Tonight (August 28) at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's debut at Jackson Hole, with a clearly hawkish tone.
He reiterated the 2% PCE inflation target as "firm and unwavering," noting the current PCE year-on-year at 3.7%, six-month annualized at 4.1%, with no substantial improvement in core inflation, "If we can't quickly return to 2%, we still have work to do." On the economic front: unemployment rate at 4.1%, AI capital expenditure supports resilience, financial conditions are not restrictive, implying room to keep rate hikes. Communication advocates weakening forward guidance, no commitment to future path, aiming for a "quieter Fed."
Market reaction: U.S. stocks turned down, gold and silver plunged, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields surged, CME shows September rate hike probability rising above 40%. Overall, tonight is not a "tapering" signal but a hawkish reset prioritizing inflation and no easing rate cuts.$BTC $ETH $SNDK did not directly call for an immediate rate hike but completely opened the door to rate increases, rejecting the market's rate cut fantasies #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Key points from the core statement: 1. The 2% inflation target is unwavering; the current primary task is to suppress inflation, with employment as a secondary priority 2. Even if recent CPI/PCE data looks good, it does not mean the inflation trend has truly declined; short-term data should not be misleading 3. If core inflation does not clearly and quickly decline, the Fed still has work to do = implying rate hikes can continue 4. The current financial environment is not tight enough to suppress inflation 5. Abandoning forward guidance: will not give the market advance commitments on the interest rate path; everything depends on subsequent data, and the market must bear the uncertainty risk 6. Acknowledges the strong resilience of the US economy and labor market; the economy is not weak, leaving ample room for further rate hikes Why this is bearish for US stocks: 1. The market had been trading on "inflation peak, subsequent rate cuts possible," but this speech directly shattered rate cut expectations, with the probability of a September rate hike rising rapidly 2. US Treasury yields rising puts the most pressure on high-valuation tech and chip sectors (Nvidia, Hynix, memory boards); growth stock valuations are compressed 3. No policy backstop signal was given; the market loses the "Fed rescue" fantasy, risk appetite declines, and US stocks are prone to volatile weakness. Note: He did not directly announce an immediate rate hike, not an extremely aggressive hawk, so there won't be a direct crash; but the rebound will be nonThis Jackson Hole speech was hawkish as expected, with no worse-than-expected negative news, so it will not directly change the medium-term market trend but will alter the subsequent pricing logic. As you can see, the volatility was not particularly large, consistent with the characteristics of a monkey market. First, the core tone of the speech: The Fed firmly sticks to the 2% inflation target and will not relax it, emphasizing that current inflation has not substantially declined and not ruling out further rate hikes. At the same time, it significantly downplays "forward guidance"; in the future, the Fed will not provide the market with a rate roadmap in advance. Every policy adjustment will follow the latest inflation and employment data. Short-term impact: Market volatility was small because the market had long anticipated a hawkish stance, with no unexpected shocks. The short-term macro-level shoe has dropped; the sudden impact from the Fed's speech has temporarily ended. However, there is a subtle change: future market trends will no longer rely on the Fed "pre-announcing" but each inflation data release will become a market trigger. The volatility frequency of BTC and ETH will likely increase. In the medium term, the negative factors have not disappeared but have been postponed. The Fed has drawn a red line for the market: as long as inflation rebounds, the option to raise rates can restart at any time. This means the duration of high interest rates may be longer than previously imagined. Expectations for liquidity easing have been further cooled, adding a ceiling to the upward potential of crypto prices. Fortunately, the crypto market now has an important hedge—continuous net inflows into spot ETFs. Institutional spot buying provides bottom support. As long as ETF funds do not significantly retreat, a merely hawkish stance is unlikely to reverse the medium-term pattern of oscillating strength. Future market main... Dear viewers, allow me to show off a bit as usual and stretch my back. Yesterday I said that the probability of a hawkish rate hike by Walsh in September would increase by 15%, and this has already been achieved, rising from 40% to 55%.
Now the most interesting reaction is in the US Treasury market: the 30-year yield has fallen, the 10-year is fluctuating, and the 2-year yield is rising.
This indicates that while the rate hike is being priced in, the long end is voting in favor by rising. Previously, Wall Street representatives Bassett and Walsh's teacher Druckenmiller spoke out to express this view.
Thus, the doubling of the repurchase bullets that Bassett said would be fired on September 9 has not actually been fired yet, but the long end has already fallen, meaning the market side has verified that a real rate hike will not trigger the bond market. This means September can boldly proceed with the hike.
It also indirectly proves that Bassett and Walsh are playing a tacit game.
Next, keep an eye on:
September 4: August Nonfarm Payrolls
September 10: August PPI
September 11: August CPI
September 15–16: FOMC
The probability of a rate hike will gradually increase until the hike is implemented. The script is already written, let's watch as it unfolds #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ The market’s verdict on Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech?
Hawkish — but not catastrophic.
The 2Y Treasury yield jumped from roughly 4.23% to 4.30%, signaling higher rate expectations.
Yet Nasdaq didn’t collapse.
Why?
NVIDIA just showed that AI demand remains incredibly strong:
$96.2B quarterly revenue, +106% YoY.
Data Center revenue: $89B, +117% YoY.
The message is becoming clearer:
AI fundamentals are strong.
But AI valuations are now under stress.
This isn’t necessarily an “AI winter.”$ETH is more suppressed in the short term than Bitcoin due to the "hawkish" tone of Waller's speech, but there is a unique strategic point in the mid-to-long-term logic for Ethereum.
The specific impacts can be viewed in three layers:
· Heavier short-term selling pressure (leverage clearing): Ethereum's on-chain staking and DeFi lending are more sensitive to interest rates. Under expectations of tightening liquidity, funds will prioritize withdrawing from higher-risk on-chain leveraged positions, resulting in poorer price elasticity for Ethereum. Under the same bearish conditions, its decline is usually greater than Bitcoin's.
· "Deflation narrative" temporarily invalid: Previously, the market expected Ethereum's supply reduction to be beneficial, but Waller emphasized that the "primary task is fighting inflation," meaning high interest rates will persist longer. This will directly suppress on-chain activity (NFTs, DeFi trading volume), leading to prolonged low network gas fees. Once Ethereum enters an "inflation" state (issuance exceeding burn), its "ultrasound money" narrative will be weakened.
· Institutional funds as a double-edged sword: Waller personally is friendly to crypto assets (calling Bitcoin the "new gold"), but his liquidity tightening policies will slow the pace of large-scale entry by traditional institutions. However, if a rate cut cycle begins in the future, because Ethereum's staking yield (about 3-4%) is higher than U.S. Treasury bonds, it may instead become the first asset to be aggressively accumulated by institutions, forming a "bearish exhaustion" rebound.Waller's speech landed: hawkish, but not fatal
First, the conclusion: hawkish bias, but the market has already priced in most of it. Three key points from the speech:
First, inflation remains the number one enemy. Waller bluntly stated, "Summer inflation data was better than expected, but the underlying trend has not substantially improved." PCE year-over-year increase is 3.7%, far from the 2% target. He emphasized: we must be confident that inflation is falling toward the target fast enough, otherwise we still have work to do.
Second, rejection of forward guidance. Waller clearly said that in normal times forward guidance should be limited to avoid over-committing to future rate paths. He even joked, "You can call it an outline, but definitely not forward guidance." The market should not expect the Fed to "feed" it; watch the data yourself.
Third, the economy is strong, financial conditions are not tight. Corporate capital expenditures are up about 9% year-over-year, and the unemployment rate at 4.1% is at historic lows.
After the speech, the probability of a September rate hike rose above 45%, US Treasury yields surged, and gold plunged $50. The crypto market dipped slightly, with BTC falling about 0.89% within fifteen minutes to $78,620 — a much smaller drop than expected. This indicates that after short squeeze pressure eased, spot buying is indeed coming in.
Waller did not explicitly say a September hike is certain but hinted it is "not ruled out." This is not good news for risk assets, but the core drivers for BTC rising from 64,000 to 80,000 are Treasury liquidity operations and ETF inflows, not rate cut expectations. As long as these two logics hold, consolidation around 80,000 is highly probable.
The negative news is priced in; next, we look at ETF data.8.28 Evening Market Analysis｜Waller's Hawkish Speech Lands, Market Under Pressure and Pulls Back
Two events coincided tonight: $6.4 billion options expiration settlement and Waller's first speech at Jackson Hole. The tone was hawkish, no interest rate path was given, and the forward guidance was canceled, stating inflation hasn't improved substantially, the 2% target remains unchanged, and rate hikes are still possible. Upon the news, US Treasury yields rebounded, the dollar strengthened, and BTC was pushed down from around 79,500, amplifying volatility in both macro and derivatives markets.
What Waller said
He didn't directly say whether there will be a rate hike in September, but the meaning was clear: the summer inflation improvement is not enough, underlying inflation hasn't improved, and the Fed still has work to do. Financial conditions are not tight, but if inflation rebounds, further rate hikes are not ruled out. Going forward, no advance hints on rates will be given; decisions will be entirely data-dependent.
The market immediately raised the probability of a September rate hike, putting risk assets under pressure. But it must be clear—this is a short-term suppression caused by worsening liquidity expectations, not a trend reversal. ETFs are still seeing net inflows, and institutional mid-term logic remains intact.
The large option positions have been settled, and market makers have offloaded most hedging pressure. Future trends will depend more on spot capital and macro sentiment. But tonight, macro is bearish, with short-term bears dominating.
---
BTC Key Levels
Resistance above at 78,800-79,200; if the rebound can't hold above, weakness continues.
Support below at 77,500-77,800; holding means high-level consolidation, breaking it points to 76,800.
ETH
More elastic than BTC, with slightly larger pullbacks. Resistance at 2,520, support at 2,440, still following the broader market.
Altcoins broadly down, MEME more volatile. 24-hour liquidation scale increased, both longs and shorts got swept, with a particularly sharp spike during the speech.
Trading Strategy
Mid-term is fine; ETFs continue inflows, hawkish speech is just a short-term shock, not a crash trend, pullbacks are shakeouts.
Short-term bearish, don't rush to bottom-fish. Don't chase rebounds under resistance; try small positions once support stabilizes, and don't hold if broken.
Focus next on US inflation data; the Fed is fully data-driven now. Weekend liquidity is weak, volatility continues; deleveraging and light positions are better than anything else.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
$BTC $ETH $SOL BTC touched 81,000 again, then got kicked back down to over 79,000.
On August 28, BTC once broke through $81,000, with a daily increase of over 3%. The script is exactly the same as before—once it hits 80,000, someone dumps.
Money keeps flowing in, but the price just can't go up.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have had net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, accumulating $2.8 billion. BlackRock's IBIT alone brought in $277.6 million in one day. The cumulative inflow since August has exceeded $3 billion, potentially becoming the largest single-month inflow since the product's launch.
On the other hand, about $270 million to $399 million worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network in the past 24 hours, with short liquidations making up the majority, about $256 million. Shorts were cleared out, but the price still hasn't held above 80,000.
What does this indicate? Someone is precisely selling above 80,000, and spot buying is absorbing the selling pressure.
The highlight tonight is Federal Reserve Chair Powell's first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Conference. The probability of a rate hike in September is 35%, and the December hike is fully priced in. If Powell leans hawkish, 80,000 might be a short-term top; if dovish, a breakout could really happen.
Tonight's speech might be more important than all the data from the past week.
$BTC $ETH The market has been waiting all day for the key point, and Warsh has officially started speaking. The most critical point is not "immediate rate hikes," but rather his clear statement that if inflation does not clearly and quickly return to 2%, the Fed "still has work to do."
💬 Tomorrow BTC: A breaks through 82,800, B continues to fluctuate between 78,000–82,800, or C falls below 78,000?
1️⃣ PCE annual growth still reaches 3.7%, Warsh believes inflation improvement has been limited in the past two years.
2️⃣ He believes the job market is stable, the economy is resilient, and broad financial conditions are hardly "restrictive."
3️⃣ The 2% inflation target remains unchanged, and short-term interest rates are still the main policy tool.
4️⃣ He did not provide a clear timeline for rate hikes; instead, he emphasized again that he dislikes excessive forward guidance.
What the bulls see: no direct announcement of rate hikes; what the bears truly worry about: the overall tone is clearly hawkish.
📊 Market judgment: neutral to bearish
I am currently not chasing longs. If BTC stabilizes above 82,800 again, I will turn bullish; if it falls below 78,000, be cautious of amplified pullbacks. $BTC $ETH As of August 28, Solana (SOL) has surged nearly 20% this week, significantly outperforming Bitcoin's approximately 9% gain over the same period, ranking among the top-performing major cryptocurrencies.
There are four main drivers behind this strong upward movement of SOL:
1. Continuous net inflows into ETFs, with about $74.8 million flowing in this week alone, marking an impressive single-week fund inflow since 2026;
2. Price holding steady above the $100 mark, briefly reaching a year-to-date high of $109, with market bullish sentiment noticeably warming up;
3. Comprehensive rebound in ecosystem activity, with on-chain transactions and Meme coin trading within the sector both active, combined with incremental ETF capital inflows, creating a positive feedback loop of "price rise → increased trading activity → sustained capital inflow";
4. Ongoing expansion of traditional financial channels, with Charles Schwab launching SOL spot trading, further broadening institutional investment access.
Key points to watch going forward:
The critical signal in this rally is SOL's independent price action, achieving excess returns relative to BTC and ETH. The $100 level has become an important bull-bear dividing line; $110 is a short-term strong resistance and previous high; if $120 is successfully broken, further upside potential may open. If $100 is lost and weakness continues, caution is warranted for concentrated profit-taking after a 20% surge.
The daily RSI once touched 80.5, indicating accumulating short-term risks of chasing higher prices. $BTC $ETH $SOL #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #OKX预言家：Premier League, LCK, and F1 predictions underway
"£65 million per year to buy the Chelsea chest sponsor: Why Circle put stablecoins on the Premier League pitch"
The three-year vacancy for Chelsea's chest sponsorship has been settled, with stablecoin USDC issuer Circle making a major takeover.
Starting from this weekend's Premier League opener, the golden USDC logo will appear at Stamford Bridge, with an annual sponsorship exceeding £65 million.
This is the first time in Premier League history that a crypto financial institution has bought the main chest sponsorship of a top club with stablecoins as the core logo.
Facing Tether's suppression in offshore markets, Circle, rushing to go public, is building a compliance mindset barrier using top-tier sports IP.
The stablecoin competition has shifted from on-chain internal battles to mainstream breakout; the first to secure global sports IP will control the basic user base. $USDC #Will Walsh debut at Jackson Hole tonight, can he clarify the policy framework?
Short-term negative for SanDisk, can SanDisk continue to rise?
Impact of Walsh's Jackson Hole speech on $SNDK
⚠️ Purely macro logic deduction, not investment advice
Walsh signals a hawkish bias: inflation has not met the target, does not rule out further rate tightening and cancellation of forward guidance. SanDisk, as a high-valuation growth stock in AI storage, has its stock price highly constrained by the real yield on U.S. Treasury bonds, and the discount rate applied to long-term cash flow valuation will be elevated.
1. Short-term negative
After the speech, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and risk assets collectively saw valuation cuts. SanDisk had a huge prior gain and its TTM valuation is at a historical high, representing a crowded long trade; capital will quickly reduce positions to avoid risk, making a rapid pullback likely, pressured in sync with BTC and Nasdaq tech stocks. Even if corporate orders are full and AI data center demand is strong, rising rates will first suppress the stock price rather than immediately change the company's fundamentals.
2. Medium to long term viewed separately
The speech did not deny AI capital expenditure; the long orders for AI server SSDs and the industry cycle logic of NAND flash price increases remain intact. If inflation subsequently falls and rate cut expectations return, U.S. Treasury yields decline, SanDisk will see valuation recovery;Federal Reserve Chair Wash: Forward-looking policies are not based on outdated or inaccurate data. In fact, the subtext of this statement is that I am neither raising nor lowering interest rates now, adopting a neutral fiscal or monetary policy. The market had already anticipated this, so the recent fluctuations in ETH seem more like a leveraged liquidation using market information.
#WalshPolicyFramework
#AIShiftsToSoftware
#BTCOptionsExpiryTest The long-awaited pullback has finally arrived.
Luckily, I held on stubbornly these past few days and didn’t sell, otherwise today would have been wasted.
The short position on $ETH has already gained some profit and is running.
I plan to at least double this trade before closing it; otherwise, I really can’t bear to close it.
The entry point for the $BTC short position wasn’t as good as ETH’s, so the profit is smaller.
But the overall direction is correct, so it’s not a big problem.
$SOL has also been followed up simultaneously; the short positions on all three coins are running together.
The real downtrend might not have officially started yet.
But honestly, the recent crazy long positions by the whales are really unsettling.
The Billionaire and Yili Hua both took long positions in the 79,000 to 80,000 range.
One sees 100,000, the other sees 86,000.
86,000 is still manageable, but if it really surges to 100,000, I might have to add more funds to my account again 😅
We’ll see how things go next! Brothers, what do you think about this wave? Let’s talk about your views!
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #Moonwell遭价格操纵，抵押风险暴露
I am Cige. The Base ecosystem lending protocol Moonwell was price manipulated, resulting in a loss of $8.7 million. The attacker exploited the insufficient trading depth of MAMO to pump the price, then used it as an overvalued collateral to borrow highly liquid assets like cbBTC and USDC. Moonwell has already lowered the borrowing limit to 1 wei and restricted new supply of MAMO and WELL.
This is not a contract code vulnerability; it is a failure of collateral liquidity, oracle pricing, and risk parameters together. Low liquidity tokens used as collateral with insufficient price depth can be easily manipulated with a simple pull. Multi-source pricing, supply limits, and borrowing caps can prevent such attacks, but Moonwell did not implement these. This incident serves as a wake-up call for the entire DeFi lending sector: collateral quality is more important than yield, and liquidity depth is more important than innovation. The direction remains unchanged, but the pace is shifting. That's all from Cige, take it in.In my opinion, tonight's speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is meant to signal that the worst of the negative news is over, or the "boot has dropped." The subsequent market movement usually unfolds in three stages:
First, an instant oversold rebound. When the negative news is realized, the last batch of panic sellers exit, creating a vacuum in selling pressure. Prices quickly recover, with previously oversold quality assets showing the greatest elasticity. This rebound is often accompanied by increased trading volume.
Second, differentiation and bottoming. After a violent rebound, the market enters a consolidation and bottoming phase, focusing on distinguishing the nature of the negative news. If it is a short-term financial shock, stock prices may experience a V-shaped reversal; if it changes the long-term industry logic (such as the end of a policy), the rebound will be followed by a gradual decline, with funds shifting to new directions. During this period, there is intense competition between left-side bottom-fishers and right-side escapees, with candlesticks repeatedly retesting lows. Only if previous lows hold can a technical bottom be confirmed.
Finally, waiting for new expectations. The exhaustion of negative news only removes downward momentum; upward movement requires new catalysts, such as easing policies or industry recovery data. If new expectations are delayed, the market will trade sideways at low levels for a long time, shifting from trading "bad news" to trading "good news" takes time.
Three key reminders: First, the true "exhaustion" can only be confirmed in hindsight; do not mistake "reduced negative news" for "exhaustion" to avoid buying halfway down the slope. Second, during the bottoming phase, extremely low trading volume (lowest volume) is more reliable than price stabilization, indicating that speculative positions have been washed out. Third, closely watch the most resilient leading stocks in the sector; if they no longer hit new lows and strengthen with volume, it is often a signal of institutional pre-positioning and deserves priority attention. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SNDK Before and after Waller's speech on August 28, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experienced intense volatility characterized by a "rally-fall-rally" pattern. This was not caused by a single piece of news but was a multi-front battle driven by macro policy games, pre-speech speculative expectations, and post-speech interpretation of wording.
🚀 Why the "rally"? — Pre-speech "dovish expectation" speculation
Before Waller's speech, the market mainly pushed prices up based on the following logic:
· Treasury "liquidity injection" expectation: On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term bond repurchases. The market bet that if the Federal Reserve cooperated (i.e., "fiscal-led"), it would effectively lower long-term interest rates and release liquidity, benefiting Bitcoin and other inflation-resistant assets. Bitcoin rose from about 80,000 within a week.
· Continuous inflow into ETFs: Before the speech, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows for 8 consecutive days, totaling over $2.8 billion, becoming the most direct buying force.
· Technical breakout: Under strong bullish sentiment, Bitcoin once surged to $81,455, a three-month high.
📉 Why the "fall"? — Speech content interpreted as "hawkish"
Waller's formal speech extinguished the market's "dovish" illusions mainly because:
· Policy focus clearly on "inflation fighting": He emphasized that the current policy focus should be on price issues, and the 2% inflation target is "unchanged." Considering the PCE inflation was as high as 3.7% at the time, this implied continued tightening.
· Caution on "forward guidance" and defense of Fed independence: He was reserved about "forward guidance" and opposed over-commitment. This was interpreted by the market as a refusal to endorse the Treasury's repurchase plan, shattering the market's "fiscal-led" fantasy.
· Market immediately voted with its feet: Within 15 minutes after the speech, BTC dropped about 0.89% to 2,477.
🔄 Why the "rally again"? — Bull-bear game and exhaustion of negative factors
After a rapid drop, the price rebounded again, reflecting the market's complex mindset:
· Exhaustion of negative factors and short covering: The hawkish speech met expectations, and some traders believed the negative factors were exhausted and began buying to close positions.
· Technical support: Bitcoin rebounded after hitting key support levels, attracting technical buying.
⚖️ The essence of the volatility: tug-of-war between two macro forces
At a deeper level, this volatility was a fierce clash of two macro forces in the crypto market:
· Treasury "liquidity injection": lowering long-term interest rates through bond repurchases, benefiting Bitcoin.
· Federal Reserve "tightening": controlling inflation through high interest rates, bearish for Bitcoin.
The market speculated on "liquidity injection" before the speech and fell after the "tightening" signals, causing intense fluctuations.
💎 Summary
This volatility is a typical case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." The market over-priced the possibility of dovishness before the speech, while Waller's hawkish stance defending Fed independence directly burst that bubble. Meanwhile, over 70,000 liquidations totaling $344 million also reflect how highly leveraged markets are prone to sharp swings due to macro news.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 ✅Key points from the Jackson Hole speech
Core: Hawkish tilt, no direct mention of immediate rate hikes, but dispelled market hopes for rapid rate cuts
Key original points
1. The 2% inflation target will not be compromised; current inflation has not shown substantial decline, more work remains
2. The current financial environment is not considered tight; further rate hikes are possible, interest rates remain the main tool
3. No pre-commitment to the September rate decision; future judgments will fully depend on new inflation data
4. The labor market remains relatively robust; no priority on job preservation for now
Market immediate reaction
- US Treasury yields rebounded quickly, risk-free returns rose
- Probability of a September rate hike increased significantly, rate cut expectations cooled sharply
Impact on crypto market
1. Big picture: liquidity expectations tighten, unfavorable for sustained crypto price rallies; previous high around 80,000 will face increased pressure
2. Short term: funds will be more cautious, high levels prone to volatile pullbacks, altcoins (SOL, ZEC, etc.) usually experience stronger corrections than Bitcoin
3. Key focus ahead: upcoming US inflation data will be especially critical; if inflation remains high, rate hike expectations will continue to rise, suppressing the market
Wash's speech this time is hawkish; market expectations shift from "easy money fantasies" back to caution, unfavorable for risk assets in the short term, entering a more cautious phase.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Analysis of $BTC based on Wash's speech at Jackson Hole
⚠️ Macro market interpretation only, not investment advice
1. Wash sends a hawkish signal this time: sticking to the 2% inflation target, believes inflation has not substantially improved, states current financial conditions are still not tight enough, leaving room to continue tightening rates; also cancels traditional forward guidance, policy will fully follow economic data, no longer providing the market with a clear interest rate path; additionally reiterates the Fed will not backstop crypto/stablecoin risks but acknowledges digital assets are now part of the financial market.
2. Transmission logic to BTC
1. Liquidity expectations under pressure: delayed rate cuts, possibility of rate hikes retained, US Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens. BTC is a high-beta risk asset, institutional ETF funds will be suppressed by real interest rates, short-term upside is limited, market directly experiences a slight pullback.
2. Increased policy uncertainty: cancellation of forward guidance means future market will fluctuate sharply with every inflation and employment data release, volatility will increase, contract spike risk significantly rises.
3. Medium to long term duality: He does not exclude Bitcoin itself, viewing BTC as a hedge asset similar to gold.
3. Resistance
1. Short-term first resistance: 80800‑81300
2. Intermediate resistance: 82500‑83000
Support
1. First defensive support: 79600‑79800
2. Key strong support: 77800‑78200 美联储主席沃什的讲话结束了。 我总结了一下，讲话主要有四个核心的方面。 第一个是美联储现在更关心美国的通胀问题，而非是美国的就业问题。 第二个是美联储认为现在金融市场仍旧看不到任何紧缩的现象。 第三个是美联储现在不会做出什么前瞻指引。 第四个是阐述了美联储降息的条件。 这四个结果都是鹰牌发言，没有一个言论有利于金融市场，这对于现在的市场无疑是一个打击。 —————————————————— 第一点，沃什认为，现在美国的就业仍然保持强劲，但是通胀已经高到了一个非常严重的地步。 他认为，现在美国的就业是充分的，而通胀问题是广泛的，是高于美联储2%的目标的。 他还表示，虽然近期的通胀数据有所改善，但是依旧不能够让他相信通胀已经出现了实质性的改善。 最后，他还在发言的结尾，再一次的强调了通胀。 沃什在发言的结尾说了这样一句话： 我今天站在这里，是为了坚持一项纪律，而不是作出一项决定。 这意思很清楚了，美联储会坚持2%的通胀目标不改变。 —————————————————— 第二点，沃什认为，现在的金融市场是看不到任何紧缩的现象。 沃什表示，目前市场的信贷利差仍然较低，贷款标准相对宽松，信贷市场Complete analysis of BTC and ETH surging, falling back, then surging again with large fluctuations after Warsh's speech
Market phenomenon: At the moment the speech was broadcast, prices surged first, then quickly plunged after reading the full text, digested for over ten minutes, and then pulled back again, with intense back-and-forth tug-of-war; altcoins followed the big coins with synchronized large ups and downs.
Root cause: Contradictory views within the speech text, market expectation divergence, Friday options expiration Gamma hedging, high leverage across the network, liquidity contraction near the weekend, multiple forces pulling against each other.
1. Macro level: The speech itself caused expectation splits
Warsh's speech was a "mixed signal," neither purely hawkish nor purely dovish, causing repeated capital games.
1. Opening segment: No direct extreme tough wording was thrown out; short-term traders first interpreted it as dovish, US Treasury yields briefly declined, BTC and ETH quickly surged.
2. After reading the full text: It clearly emphasized stubborn inflation, the 2% target remains unchanged, left room for further rate hikes, "there is still work to do," the hawkish parts were caught by the market, yields rebounded, prices quickly fell and crashed.
3. Subsequently, capital re-evaluated: The market began repricing; although the wording was hawkish, the probability of an immediate rate hike in September remained low, not tightening immediately, so buying re-entered and prices surged again.
2. Derivatives amplify volatility (key Friday variable)
Coinciding with weekly CME options expiration, in a negative Gamma environment, market makers' hedging amplifies price swings.
1. Surge upward: Market makers passively sell spot, suppressing upward momentum;
2. Rapid fall: Market makers are forced to sell along, accelerating the drop, triggering massive long liquidations;
3. At key support levels, many short positions trigger stop losses, shorts cover, pulling prices back up.
Thus, the "surge—crash—pullback" pattern is not due to deliberate manipulation but a chain reaction of options hedging plus contract liquidations, amplifying every move. The whole network experiences bidirectional clearing and explosions.
3. Spot capital two forces continuously opposing
1. Bullish force: Spot buying from ETFs like BlackRock remains, forming support below; some capital believes that even if the speech is hawkish, short-term rate hikes won't happen immediately, so they buy on dips.
2. Bearish selling pressure:
① Previous profit-taking and dormant ancient wallet addresses sell on rallies;
② Some institutions proactively reduce weekend exposure on Friday, using the speech rally to reduce positions, avoiding weekend geopolitical or policy black swans.
The two capital forces are evenly matched, so no one-sided trend emerges, just back-and-forth tugging.
4. Liquidity disadvantage at timing (Friday night)
1. US stock market nears close, Wall Street traders gradually leave; crypto trades 24/7, institutional fiat channels about to close, market liquidity thins, so small funds can cause large price swings.
2. Approaching weekend: Bank settlements pause, large fiat transfers are blocked, bottom-fishing and fleeing funds are constrained, intensifying spike-like fluctuations.
5. Different coin market performances
BTC, ETH
Oscillate back and forth between key support and resistance. ETFs are important buffers; as long as ETFs do not turn to continuous net outflows, deep crashes are hard to realize, but breaking upper resistance in one go is also difficult.
Altcoins (SOL, ZEC, etc.)
Volatility is much greater than big coins. Upward phases have higher elasticity; during pullbacks, contract liquidations are more severe. Altcoins lack ETF spot support and fully follow the market's risk appetite swings.
6. Two subsequent scenario distinctions
Scenario 1: Just event shock volatility (currently higher probability)
After digestion of volatility, prices return to the original large range BTC 74800-80000, ETH 2240-2500.
Observation signals: ETF maintains net inflow; 74800 and 2240 supports hold; no weekend black swan; institutional funds return Monday; volatility falls.
Scenario 2: Confirmed weakness after volatility
If repeated surges are all resisted and fall back; ETF inflows rapidly shrink or turn outflows; daily chart breaks 74800/2240 effectively, a medium-term correction will start.
7. Key observation signals
1. Whether the 2-year US Treasury yield continues to rise, the macro anchor;
2. BTC/ETH spot ETF subsequent capital flows, the spot confidence;
3. Key supports: BTC 74800, ETH 2240;
4. Weekend liquidity is poor, weekend spikes and extreme prices have low reference value; the real trend depends on Monday's institutional return market.
Summary
This large back-and-forth volatility essentially stems from Warsh's mixed statements causing market interpretation splits, combined with Friday options expiration Gamma amplifying volatility, spot capital bull-bear confrontation, and weekend liquidity contraction.
The speech did not provide a clear absolute hawkish or dovish direction; the market is repricing the September Fed probability. The volatility is just event disturbance; true trend confirmation awaits the fading of derivatives disturbance and whether spot capital and key supports hold.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The easiest phrase to mock in Crypto these years: "We take compliance very seriously," because those who say this often can't even clearly explain what they are licensed to do in which country. Having worked on compliance in challenging regions like Africa, I believe compliance is not a moat for a company like cash reserves or technical strength; it is more like an option.
An option means the cost you pay today can allow you to do something in the future that others cannot. For example, banks are willing to open accounts for you, companies are willing to pay salaries and consolidate funds with you, brokers are willing to accept your tokenized securities, and institutions are willing to place client assets into your custody system.
Recent disclosures show that exchanges may need 18–24 months and millions of dollars to obtain some cross-regional licenses. This is not universally applicable, but it somewhat explains why Wall Street investors have started to treat licenses as part of their assets: you can hire people if you lack technology, invest if you lack money, but you cannot replicate lost time.
Of course, a compliance license is not a universal pass. The best situation is not "I have a license," but "this license allows me to serve clients that others cannot, and the fees from these clients cover the cost of maintaining this system."
Therefore, I break down a project's compliance into four parts:
First, rights: what exactly is it allowed to do among custody, issuance, brokerage, payment, and clearing?
Second, jurisdiction: where is this license valid, and how much remains after cross-border operations?
Third, cost: how much is spent annually on audits, capital, personnel, and reporting?
Fourth, clients: which clients come only because of this license?
The most easily overlooked part is clients. Many projects treat obtaining a license as the end goal, but clients will not pay just because you are compliant. The real business world only cares about what troubles are reduced for which clients in what scenarios thanks to this license.
In summary, the most valuable in the future will definitely not be the company with the most licenses, but the company whose licenses are most tightly integrated with its products. Stablecoin issuance, corporate wallets, tokenized securities, prediction markets—each track requires different combinations. The right combination is the true next phase of Crypto; the wrong combination means, sorry, the more licenses you have, the heavier the burden.The Federal Reserve used to look down on crypto and simply ignore it,
now it has no choice but to take it seriously.
The Fed has put crypto and stablecoins on the official agenda of the Jackson Hole meeting, signaling an intent to "bring them under control."
Central banks used to completely dismiss crypto assets, but now they can't avoid discussing them.
There's no way around it: the short-term U.S. Treasury holdings in the hands of stablecoin issuers have already surpassed those of Saudi Arabia; these private institutions are incredibly wealthy.
When privately issued dollar tokens get involved in the U.S. monetary and debt system, it means they've officially joined the table.
However, U.S. legislation mandates that stablecoin reserves must be allocated in U.S. Treasuries, effectively creating a super stable buyer base for Treasuries out of thin air.
This is better than outright seizure; the goal is simple: to transform wild stablecoins into obedient, controllable, and legitimate financial instruments.
The 49th symposium will be held from August 27 to 29 in Wyoming.
There is great uncertainty about Wash's Friday speech.
He could extensively discuss the impact of crypto and stablecoins, or completely avoid crypto and only talk about inflation, rate hikes, and cuts.
Currently, the market is deeply divided; some bet on rate cuts, others on continued hawkishness.
Retail investors foolishly hope the meeting will bring direct positive news for crypto.
The real factors deciding Bitcoin's fate are always interest rates and liquidity.
The meeting topics are just surface-level hype; what can truly crash or pump the market is the stance on monetary policy.
Even if crypto isn't mentioned at all, as long as a hawkish signal is sent, the crypto community will still get hit hard, becoming mere followers and accepting their fate.The sectors leading the gains today are all small caps, sharing a common trait not of technological progress but of attention—gamification, communities, political memes, all priced based on popularity. The key is to see where the money is coming from. The USDT market cap moved only 0.01% in 24 hours, essentially no new money entering; meanwhile, BTC dominance dropped to 59.1%, and the entire market fell by 2.75%. The conclusion is straightforward: this is not an incremental market, but a reallocation of existing funds from large caps to small caps. The smaller the cap, the higher the same amount of money can push it, so the leaderboard is naturally filled with these types of assets. Fear and greed index is 73, a week ago it was 72, barely changed—sentiment hasn't spread, just localized agitation. My judgment: this rotation is short-term, lacking a foundation for broader spread, so don't treat it as the start of a new altcoin season. A verifiable end signal: under the premise that USDT market cap still does not grow, BTC dominance stops falling and rebounds, rising back above 59.1%—funds turn back to large caps, and this small-cap rotation is over. Another simultaneous signal is that the daily gains of these sectors converge back to single digits.Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech was hawkish. No Fed backing for Treasury bond buybacks = Fed independence over coordination. Markets reacted fast: 📈 DXY up 📈 Treasury yields up 📉 $BTC fell from $81K to around $79K Why it matters: A big part of Bitcoin's rally from $64K → $80K was driven by the belief that improving liquidity conditions would support risk assets. Warsh just poured cold water on that thesis. The market wanted liquidity confirmation. It got a reminder that the Fed is still foc$BTC BTC breaks 80,000 again, this time with more confidence
Bitcoin returns to $80,000, once reaching $81,300 intraday, with a monthly gain of over 28%, marking the largest single-month increase since November 2024.
Three driving forces behind this:
First, US Treasury repurchase triggers "devaluation trade." The US Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion each time, interpreted by the market as implicit easing, weakening the dollar, with Bitcoin and gold rising together.
Second, institutional buying continues. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding $2.6 billion over 8 consecutive trading days, Coinbase premium reappears, and US funds are entering with real money.
Third, short covering boosts the rally. Previously, over $1 billion in shorts were liquidated in a single day, prices surged rapidly, followed by active institutional buying, indicating the rally is not over yet.
What to watch next:
RSI has exceeded 80, indicating clear short-term overbought conditions, with heavy supply between $81.1K and $82.3K. Tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole will determine how long the "devaluation trade" can continue.
80,000 is reached, but holding steady is the real skill. Waller's hawkish speech but dovish actions—this kind of “Tai Chi master” is scarier than a clear rate hike
Just finished listening to Waller's speech, summed up in one sentence: all hawkish words, no action in hand.
He said "primary focus on prices" and "inflation won't return automatically," which sounds like a rate hike. But then he added, "the market's judgment is correct," which translates to: if you think I won't hike, you're right.
My judgment: the bad news is fully priced in, short-term bullish, your short position probably won't get a big win this month.
Why? The market fears a "clear rate hike path" more than "hawkish catchphrases." Waller's Tai Chi this time means a September hike is basically off the table. The market prices no hike in September, and he didn't refute it, which equals tacit approval.
Volatility will sharply drop, and a large one-sided move is unlikely in the short term.
After the speech, BTC reacted mildly, volatility around $1,000, US stock futures unchanged, dollar unchanged, indicating the market didn't take it seriously. Low-volatility choppy trading might be the new normal.
My strategy: rather than betting on direction, wait for clear signals before acting. In choppy markets, both longs and shorts get hit, so trade less and watch more. Wait for price to pull back to support zones before considering going long. $BTC
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 Good evening everyone! $BTC $SNDK The following is only a macro logic deduction and does not constitute investment advice.
The relationship among Waller's Jackson Hole speech, BTC, and storage stocks
Transmission chain: Waller's speech → market interest rate expectations change → 10Y US Treasury yield fluctuations → simultaneously affecting BTC and storage stocks.
No fundamental intersection: storage stock performance comes from AI server HBM demand; BTC mining does not consume storage hardware. Their linkage is entirely due to common capital sources and synchronized risk appetite.
Three speech scenarios deduction
1. Hawkish (retaining rate hike option, emphasizing inflation priority, high rates maintained longer)
US Treasury yields rise, risk-free returns increase.
• BTC: Leveraged longs above 80000 liquidate, pull back to 76000-78000 support; spot institutional base positions won’t sell massively, this is a shakeout downward, difficult to break upward.
• Storage stocks (Micron, SK Hynix, Western Digital): high duration AI growth stocks, discount rate rise kills valuation; market worries about rising AI capital expenditure costs suppress HBM demand expectations, storage sector collectively pulls back, more crowded elastic targets fall more.
2. Neutral baseline scenario (data-dependent, no clear rate hike/cut signal)
Market currently prices baseline expectation, inflation stubborn but no action yet.
• BTC: Maintains range oscillation above 80000, macro no longer driving, market driven by ETF funds and US crypto policy.
• Storage stocks: No extra valuation pressure, stock price returns to industry fundamentals: HBM supply-demand, original factory price hike rhythm, earnings reports. Macro no longer main contradiction, structural differentiation market emerges.
3. Dovish (downplaying rate hikes, implying high rates won’t last indefinitely)
US Treasury yields decline, risk appetite fully recovers.
• BTC: Institutional allocation funds return, testing 82000-84000 resistance.
• Storage stocks: Valuation opens up, enjoying valuation repair; AI capital expenditure expectations warm up, storage sector rebounds, high elasticity targets rise stronger.
Core similarities and differences summary
Common points: Both highly sensitive to US Treasury yields, basically move in the same direction; hawkish both fall, dovish both rise, neutral depends on own fundamentals.
Differences:
1. BTC has "digital gold" hedging attribute, with independent buying in extreme inflation; storage stocks purely growth cycle logic, no hedging attribute.
2. Storage stocks have real industry cycles, HBM supply-demand can have independent market; BTC has almost no operating cash flow, fully macro + capital + policy priced.
3. Volatility ranking: small storage ≈ SOL > secondary storage ≈ ETH > storage leaders ≈ BTC.
If tonight’s speech has an unexpectedly strong statement, it will stir both markets simultaneously; if speech is vague and neutral, BTC looks to ETF, storage stocks look to earnings and HBM supply-demand.$BTC The entire network is waiting for Wash's Jackson Hole speech at 10 PM tonight, but the vast majority are focusing on the wrong point.
The real factor affecting global asset pricing tonight is not whether there will be a rate hike in September.
The market has long priced in the expectation of no rate change; the real risk lies in how the Federal Reserve will redefine the current inflation environment and the subsequent policy path.
At this stage, US economic data is very fragmented, giving no reason for easing:
The latest initial jobless claims continue to decline, showing strong labor market resilience, with unemployment stable and no signs of economic weakening.
Meanwhile, inflation data is stubbornly high; July's PCE has stuck at 3.7% for two consecutive months, core PCE remains above 3%, still far from the Fed's 2% inflation target.
To put it bluntly: inflation has not been brought down at all, and the Fed has no basis for easing.
This is also the biggest variable tonight.
Wash is very unlikely to give a direct answer on September rates, but he will definitely set the tone for the upcoming policy framework:
Will the Fed continue to focus on stubborn inflation and keep tightening options open?
Or will it tolerate high inflation, prioritizing economic growth and financial stability?
These two stances correspond to completely opposite market movements.
If tonight's speech leans hawkish and reiterates inflation risks:
The dollar and US Treasury yields will rebound directly, and the recent BTC rally, which was supported by ETF inflows, will face a sharp pullback.
It should be noted that the core driver for BTC returning near 80,000 this round is the continuous net inflow of spot ETFs for 8 days, totaling $2.8 billion in capital support.After hawkish remarks from Waller, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL all reversed gains — ETF buying is stronger than the Fed's words
Last night, Waller clearly stated that inflation is "worrisome" and the financial environment is "not restrictive," causing BTC to briefly dip below 78,000. But the market only gave it 15 minutes before a bullish candle pulled it back above 80,000. Today, BTC reached a high of $81,280, with an August gain exceeding 28%, potentially setting the largest monthly gain record since November 2024. Currently, BTC is oscillating between 80,000 and 81,000, up about 1.5% in 24 hours.
ETFs are the real driving force. Spot ETFs have seen continuous net inflows for several days, with over $3 billion inflows in August. BlackRock's related wallet received 2,559 BTC in the past 9 hours.
SOL is the strongest this week. SOL has returned to $110, up 10.5% in 24 hours and about 44% overall in August, marking the strongest monthly record since 2024. Solana spot ETFs have net inflows totaling $1.22 billion. On-chain weekly transaction volume hit a record 1.32 billion.
ETH follows the rally. ETH is trading between $2,500 and $2,520, up about 0.5% in 24 hours.
Waller's hawkish remarks only impacted the market for 15 minutes. The $3 billion ETF buying in August is effectively cementing the 80,000 level as a floor.Kevin Warsh’s message is simple: inflation is NOT beaten yet. If inflation doesn’t move clearly and fast enough toward 2%, the Fed still has “work to do” — meaning rate hikes remain on the table. (Axios) And BTC is now sitting right in the middle of that macro battle. Sticky inflation → fewer rate cuts → higher yields → stronger DXY → tighter liquidity → pressure on BTC. BTC recently pushed above $80K, but a hawkish Fed could turn that breakout into a liquidity trap if buyers start taking profit🔥Devaluation trading sweeps the globe: Why Bitcoin has become the new favorite of institutions $BTC
In August 2026, Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound driven by macro narratives, with a monthly increase of over 25%, once breaking through $81,000 to reach a three-month high. Unlike previous rallies dominated by retail speculation, the underlying logic of this rise has fundamentally changed—it is no longer just a story within the crypto circle but is becoming a core asset for global macro capital to reprice.
The trigger came from the U.S. Treasury. On August 19, the Treasury announced it would double the single-operation cap of its long-term bond repurchase program to $4 billion, directly lowering long-term yields, weakening the dollar, and triggering $1.29 billion in concentrated short-covering. The U.S. federal debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio publicly advised investors to hold Bitcoin to hedge against potential debt crisis risks, and BlackRock analysts pointed out that investors are flocking to Bitcoin and gold due to expectations of ongoing fiscal deficits eroding the dollar's purchasing power.
Deep institutional involvement is the most notable feature of this rally. In Q1 2026, about 2,000 institutional investors disclosed Bitcoin holdings in 13F filings, including long-term capital such as Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund Mubadala and the Norwegian Government Pension Fund. A survey by Coinbase and EY-Parthenon showed that two-thirds of surveyed institutions already hold crypto assets through spot ETFs. $BTC BTC surged to 81280 then fell back to the 80,000 level (currently fluctuating between 79700–80300), the 81,000 short positions were not filled, ETH brushed 2500 but couldn't hold, SOL rose nearly 20% this week but is still far from 200.
The more false breakouts, the tighter the long stop losses; FOMO is high but support is weakening, time favors the bears. Tonight is the debut of Wash at Jackson Hole (22:00) + 6.44 billion BTC options expiration, a two-way spike at the 80,000 level is inevitable.
The probability of the "CLARITY Act" passing Poly within the year has slid from 38% to 14%, 5 addresses simultaneously betting no, smart money is voting with their feet. Without the bill passing, compliance premiums won't rise—BTC breaking 100,000, ETH breaking 3000, SOL breaking 200 all lack anchors.
Is the bear side clinging to a dying fantasy? We'll see the outcome after the settlement from tonight to the end of the month.
Wash debut #CLARITY搁浅 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 📊 The non-farm payroll data got "called out"!
Expected employment +183,000, actual baseline revision -79,000, a full 260,000 difference.
The private sector was even harsher, directly revised down by 178,000.
This is already the second consecutive year of significant downward revisions—860,000 last year, and another 79,000 this year.
Simply put: the previous employment data was inflated; the actual jobs are not that many.
Three logical chains:
❶ Employment shortfall → rising expectations of rate cuts → USD under pressure
❷ Weak USD → risk assets like gold $XAU, $BTC, $SNDK favored
❸ Data reliability questioned → market trust declines
But the most critical point: this data was released simultaneously with the speech by Warsh at Jackson Hole.
• Warsh dovish → combined with employment downward revision, risk assets surge
• Warsh hawkish → offsets data benefits, causing back-and-forth volatility
• Warsh ambiguous → market interprets as "rate cuts inevitable," leaning bullish
The news-driven market volatility is huge, easily triggering stop losses back and forth.
Don't chase with heavy positions; always use stop losses
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Wash did not turn dovish; instead, he spoke the words the market least wanted to hear.
After watching the full speech, Wash's policy stance has not softened noticeably. What is truly worth being cautious about is one sentence: current broad financial conditions are hardly restrictive.
This means the Federal Reserve does not believe that high interest rates have sufficiently suppressed demand.
The data also supports his caution: PCE year-on-year is still 3.7%, with about half of the subcomponents rising over 3%; although recent inflation has improved, Wash clearly stated that this is not enough to prove that the underlying inflation trend has significantly weakened.
At the same time, the U.S. economy remains resilient, the labor market is stable, and the Federal Reserve is not currently under pressure to cut rates due to growth or employment.
So the most important conclusion tonight is not "rate hikes immediately," but:
The threshold for rate cuts remains very high, and the option to raise rates has not been taken off the table.
For BTC, the real test is just beginning. If after a hawkish speech it can still hold $80,000, it means spot buying support is strong enough; if the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise simultaneously and BTC breaks key support, high-level bulls need to guard against a re-pricing of expectations.
Wash did not give the market sugar; he gave conditions: if inflation does not return to 2% fast enough, the Federal Reserve will not easily back down. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Tonight at 10 PM is a major moment for the capital markets, as the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is grandly convened, and the global capital markets are all waiting for a "response" from Powell. Over the years, the Federal Reserve Chair's keynote speeches at the Jackson Hole Symposium have often been linked to announcements of key policy shifts.
But this year is special because internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are particularly severe. After Powell's speech today, the US stock market will be the first to fluctuate.
My view is that Powell and Trump are in the same boat; no matter how much pressure Powell faces, he will bear it. I firmly believe the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September is negligible, almost equal to zero. Most likely, rates will remain unchanged, and if there is a surprise, it would be a rate cut.
Given the relationship between Trump and Powell, I think the probability of a rate cut next month is not small.