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The market’s verdict on Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech?
Hawkish — but not catastrophic.
The 2Y Treasury yield jumped from roughly 4.23% to 4.30%, signaling higher rate expectations.
Yet Nasdaq didn’t collapse.
Why?
NVIDIA just showed that AI demand remains incredibly strong:
$96.2B quarterly revenue, +106% YoY.
Data Center revenue: $89B, +117% YoY.
The message is becoming clearer:
AI fundamentals are strong.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #BTC surges then falls back, options expiry amplifies the key level battle
"$6.4 Billion Options Mega Expiry: Market Makers' Gamma Squeeze Behind the Failure of the Max Pain Point"
A massive $6.4 billion monthly options expiry across the network, with Bitcoin fiercely tugging near the $80,000 whole number level.
Strong spot buying directly broke through the $70,000 max pain point gravity, with a large volume of deep in-the-money call options pushing the price sharply higher.
Market makers, to avoid unilateral exposure risk, were forced into mechanical dynamic hedging—buying aggressively as price rose and quickly selling to close positions on pullbacks.
This forced chase-up and sell-off hedging mechanism directly amplified intraday volatility, pushing the long-short battle around the key level to the extreme.
After settlement, the short-term hedging constraints were fully released, and the focus of large capital battles has shifted in line with September's macro liquidity and interest rate pricing. $BTC AI narratives are changing protagonists; shovels have sold enough, now let's see who can actually dig up gold
Looking at the AI earnings season, a clear shift is happening—hardware remains solid, but capital has started flowing into software
Palantir's revenue surged 93%, Snowflake's product revenue rose 57%, and Cloudflare's AI traffic surpassed 50% for the first time. Goldman Sachs split AI beneficiary stocks into hardware and software groups, with the AI software basket rising 31.3% this year, outperforming the hardware group's 25.8%. The market is showing its stance with real money
My judgment: The AI logic hasn't collapsed; it has shifted from "buying shovels" to "looking at output"
Hardware sells tools, software sells revenue. Palantir's AIP platform helps enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency, with client data directly reflected in financial statements, strengthening renewal willingness. The market has moved past the stage of "who has GPUs is the strongest" and started asking "how much money did you actually make with GPUs?"
Indirectly positive for $BTC
The overall profitability quality of the US tech sector is improving, naturally favoring an upward trend. Bitcoin, as the ultimate expression of risk assets, will not be absent from this revaluation. But those "AI narrative projects" in the crypto space—products that rely solely on concepts and storytelling without real revenue—will be rapidly eliminated. Capital is smart and will flow to projects that can prove they can survive.
Strategy: Focus on mid-term AI application layer projects, avoid pure concepts. The direction is clear; good opportunities come to those who wait.
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 1. Three forces have propelled Bitcoin to new heights
This surge is not a single story. It is the resonance of three forces at the same point in time.
The first force is called "policy optimism." On August 20, Trump met with executives from crypto companies like Coinbase and Payward at the White House, publicly urging Congress to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act). The core of this bill is to define whether cryptocurrencies are securities or commodities and clarify the regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. On the same day, the US SEC also proposed exempting some digital asset issuances from securities registration requirements.
Once the news broke, Bitcoin surged over 11% in a single day, and Ethereum rose more than 19%. Regulation shifted from "crackdown" to "embrace"—probably the most appealing narrative the crypto community has heard.
But the problem is, the bill is still stuck in the Senate. This rally reflects expectations, not reality.
The second force is called "the dollar is crying." On August 19, the US Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks to $4 billion each time. The market interpreted this as disguised easing, and the dollar weakened accordingly. The "currency devaluation trade" reignited. The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold soared to the highest since the pandemic, making the "digital gold" narrative incredibly attractive overnight.
The third force is called "the money really arrived." Short liquidations were just the fuse—$2.7 billion in short positions liquidated ignited the first wave of gains. But what truly sustained the rally was institutional capital stepping in. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows exceeding $2.6 billion over the past eight trading days; the Ethereum spot ETF also had nine consecutive days of net inflows, totaling $1.42 billion. BlackRock even lowered the Bitcoin ETF conversion threshold from $25 million to $1 million, handling over $5 billion in direct conversions alone.
Shorts were liquidated, institutions took over—the move is not just a simple "short squeeze," but real money providing support. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC
As shown in the chart, the golden pits that have successfully confirmed the BTC cycle bottoms are in 2018 and 2022, four years apart. The current golden pit in 2026 is also exactly four years apart...
But if we calculate the drop from the first weekly candle after the golden pit to BTC's ATH price, we find:
During the first two golden pits, even though there was a major weekly-level rebound, the drop from the relative high still exceeded 50%, specifically 74% in April 2019 and 69% in January 2023...
Here's the interesting part: although the golden pits appear every four years, the first two golden pits actually emerged at the beginning of the following year, which corresponds to early 2027 now...
It seems that whether from the time perspective or the price drop perspective, this golden pit appeared half a year early, which indeed raises some doubts...
However, I think this is easy to explain, since the current market is not like before; a shorter and shallower bear market is a sign of an asset gradually maturing;
Unless this is not a golden pit...
I won’t think too much about what comes next, overthinking might make me exit prematurely...
Once the bull market truly arrives, you should decisively throw your brain away...
Unless BTC still can’t break through 83k in two weeks, only then will I consider the pessimistic side of this chart...
Until then, patiently wait for a complete technical breakout!8月27日美股收盘给了一个教科书级的反直觉案例:英伟达Q2营收962亿美元,同比大增106%,财报数字本身没毛病,但股价当天跌1.59%——"利好兑现即利空"在AI板块又演了一遍。同一天,科技七巨头涨跌互现:苹果+1.15%、Meta+1.07%、微软+0.95%,而谷歌-1.23%、特斯拉-1.26%、亚马逊-0.30%。板块内部明显分化,不是普涨普跌。 放到这次交易赛的五个参赛代币上看,这个分化就是可操作的信息:NVDAx对应的英伟达"财报兑现后降温"、TSLAx对应特斯拉的"跟随大盘情绪跌",走的是两条不同逻辑;SPCXx(SpaceX)现价$142.08、24小时+1%,和上市大盘科技股的相关性本来就更弱,走势相对独立;GOOGLx、AAPLx则分别对应谷歌的资本开支担忧和苹果的新品周期预期,是两条完全不同的驱动逻辑。 跨市场联动的核心不是"抄同一个方向",而是看清楚哪个标的现在对应的是哪条新闻线。财报季这种分化期,盲目觉得"AI股都该涨"或者"都该跌"是最容易被打脸的。 结合盘中时段(21:30-04:00 UTC+8)的规则,这几天的分化行情本身就是很好的实盘复盘素材。The "involution game" between $ETH staking and Gas fees: 2,500 is exactly the liquidation warning line for many institutions staking ETH (a drop to 2,200-2,300 would trigger a chain redemption). Meanwhile, network Gas fees are sluggish, and the daily burn amount is insufficient to offset issuance, putting ETH in a slight inflationary state. This weakens the "deflation narrative," but below 2,500, long-term believers continue to buy the dip based on "POS yield," creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
· "Exchange rate anchoring" to BTC: The current ETH/BTC rate hovers around 0.031-0.032. The absolute price of 2,500 essentially represents the "fair value" calculated as Bitcoin at 80,000 USD × exchange rate 0.03125. As long as Bitcoin fluctuates near 80,000, Ethereum will be passively anchored at 2,500. To strengthen independently, the exchange rate must break above 0.033.
In the short term, 2,500 is a "weak equilibrium point." A breakout upward requires Bitcoin to hold above 82,000 and the exchange rate to rise to 0.033; a breakdown downward requires attention to the strong support zone at 2,200-2,300.
Around 2,500, it is best to wait and see. If volume breaks below 2,450, one can wait to buy in batches near 2,300; if volume breaks above 2,550 and holds, light long positions can be taken with a target of 2,800. Heavy bets on direction are not recommended currently, as volatility may expand at any time.If this round is really a bear-to-bull transition, the least necessary thing to do now is to panic because you missed the initial opportunity.
If you didn't accumulate chips at the bottom and see some altcoins already starting to move, many people's first reaction is to rush to buy, fearing that waiting another day will mean completely missing the boat. But the most interesting part of the cycle market is here: the first phase of the rise is responsible for restoring confidence, and the real large-scale trend often requires a pullback to complete the chip exchange.
Look at the trends in 2019 and 2023; after the bear market ended, the market didn't just go straight up—there were very painful retracements in between. Especially after the market has moved away from the bottom for a while, it is more likely to experience a relatively deep correction, leaving room for re-bottoming and turnover later.
So not getting on board now doesn't mean you've missed the entire cycle.
This round has only just recently come out of the bottom. If it develops according to similar past rhythms, there is still plenty of time to observe and wait.
The most important thing now is not to rush to make up for missed positions, but to keep your position and cash for real opportunities.
If the market continues to rise later, then wait for the trend to become clearer; if there is a large pullback midway, that will actually be a window for missed funds to re-enter.
The biggest fear in trading is not missing out on the first phase of profit, but liquidating the remaining chips all at once at the peak of emotion in an attempt to recover the first phase's gains.
Not buying at the bottom doesn't mean you don't qualify to benefit from the bull market.
Before the real main upward wave starts, the market usually gives you a chance to choose again.$BTC macro outlook at a “crossroads”: 80,000 is an accurate reflection of the current macro sentiment—Wash hawkishness (bearish) suppresses the price, but the market also expects the rate cut cycle to eventually arrive (bullish), with both forces evenly matched. No one dares to act rashly; everyone is waiting for the September inflation data or the Federal Reserve meeting to provide clear guidance. Therefore, before the data is released, the price naturally oscillates repeatedly around 80,000.
· Miners and institutions cost game: It is estimated that the shutdown price for the new generation of mining machines is around 52,000-55,000, while the OTC premium remains firm. For institutions, below 80,000 is a highly attractive mid-to-long-term accumulation zone; but for short-term traders, chasing above 80,000 is not cost-effective. This divergence in perception causes the price to be hammered when it approaches 82,000 and to attract buying when it falls below 78,000.
Strategy reference for you:
It is recommended to reduce trading frequency near 80,000 to avoid being stopped out repeatedly. If the price can break above 82,000 with increased volume, it can be seen as a short-term bullish signal; conversely, if it falls below 78,000, it may test strong support at 72,000-74,000. Until then, remain patient and wait for a clear direction.The voting results for the two major on-chain proposals of Solana are out. The double inflation proposal passed smoothly, but the proposal to increase burn fees did not meet the threshold and was rejected. One good and one bad; many only see the halving benefit and overlook the potential impact of the rejection. ✅ Passed: Double Deflation Proposal - SOL inflation rate directly reduced to half of the original - Over the next 6 years, about 18.9 million fewer new SOL tokens will be issued - Supply contraction, improving token inflation pressure in the mid to long term, a solid fundamental positive ❌ Not Passed: Resource-Fee Proposal (did not get 2/3 votes) The original goal of this proposal: charge fees based on resource consumption, increasing daily SOL burn from the current 650 tokens to 7,500–9,000 tokens, greatly accelerating deflation. Because it did not reach the 2/3 support threshold, it was declared a failure. Key points: Inflation reduction is implemented, but the expectation of a large burn is dashed. The market had partially priced in the double deflation expectation, now only half the scenario remains. 📊 Market logic breakdown 1. The positive is real: fewer new issuances, long-term circulation supply pressure decreases, providing underlying support for SOL. 2. But don’t be blindly euphoric: the market’s expectation of "several thousand tokens burned daily" was not realized, this part of the expectation disappears, posing a short-term risk of positive news being sold off. 3. SOL has already seen a significant rebound this round, with a notable short-term increase; with the news implemented, beware of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." 🎯 SOL key price level - Resistance: 114 $BTC
The most interesting reaction now is in the US Treasury bonds: the 30-year yield is falling, the 10-year is fluctuating, and the 2-year is rising.
This indicates that while rate hikes are being priced in, the long end is voting in favor by rising. Previously, Wall Street representatives Bassett and Wash, along with teacher Druckenmiller, spoke out to express this view.
So, the doubling repurchase bullet that Bassett said would be fired on September 9 hasn't actually been fired yet, but the long end has already come down, which means the market side has verified that a real rate hike won't trigger the bond market. This means bold rate hikes can happen in September.
It also indirectly proves that Bassett and Wash are playing a tacit game.
Next, keep an eye on:
September 4: August Nonfarm Payrolls
September 10: August PPI
September 11: August CPI
September 15-16: FOMC
The probability of rate hikes will gradually increase until the hike is implemented. The script is already written; let's watch as it unfolds Demand for Bitcoin put options is declining as traders are betting on further upside. Bitcoin has quickly rebounded and is approaching $80,000 again, with the options market starting to emit more bullish signals. Open interest in options contracts has risen in sync with BTC prices, now nearing 550,000 BTC, indicating a clear recovery in derivatives market capital and participation. Meanwhile, the DVOL index has sharply rebounded to around 41, showing renewed demand for volatility, though it remains significantly below the previous high volatility range of 50 to 60+, so the market is not yet in an extreme state. From the options structure perspective, skew across all maturities has noticeably narrowed, with short-term skew even turning negative, implying that demand for downside protection is decreasing and positions are gradually shifting toward a more balanced or even bullish stance. After BTC broke through $70,000, it has now entered a dense gamma zone between $75,000 and $80,000. Recent option capital flows have mainly concentrated near $72,500 and $79,250 strike prices, with clear call option buying at both strikes, while put option demand remains relatively limited, showing traders are betting on further BTC gains. Overall, BTC's rebound is driving continuous repair of option market positioning, reducing downside protection demand, strengthening call option capital flows, and although volatility has risen, it remains at a relatively moderate level; if the upward momentum continues, there is still room for further growth in the options market $BTC #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $TRUMP spot circulation exceeded 100 million today, contract circulation exceeded 1 billion, once the supply is sold out, liquidity will drop by 90%, blindly chasing highs is not advisable, invest cautiously, and don't forget that Trump's cryptocurrency advisor is Justin SunBTC刚站稳八万，山寨那边已经有人在爆仓边缘走钢丝了。 你猜，昨天全网最兴奋的那批人，今天在干嘛？ 我昨晚盯盘到凌晨，看到一条特别真实的价格轨迹：比特币摸到80400，以太坊才2508。可就在十几个小时前，以太坊还是那个让人按捺不住的强势品种，有人直接全仓挂在2539，兴奋到觉得下一秒就要起飞。 结果呢，四分钟没到，价格就压到爆仓线附近。不是慢慢阴跌，是贴着你的命门走，差十几个点就强制平仓。最后砍在2580，勉强捡回一点残血。 这件事让我想聊的，不是谁亏了谁赚了，而是板块强弱切换的速度，已经快到超出多数人的反应半径。 先说现象层面。 - 昨天以太坊的强势，本质是补涨预期在发酵，资金在比特币犹豫期里找弹性。 - 今天比特币一发力，以太坊反而走弱，说明这波不是普涨逻辑，是资金在板块间做取舍。 再说市场在交易什么。 比特币冲80400，表面看是突破，但更关键的是期权到期这个时间节点。关口附近的博弈被放大了，价格不是单纯的情绪推动，而是衍生品合约在逼你选择方向。以太坊的弱势，不是因为它基本面出问题，而是它的杠杆盘太拥挤，稍微一回头，踩踏就比比特币那边凶得多。 这里有个大家可能忽略的点：板块强弱#Revolut launches euro stablecoin EURR
Revolut has launched the euro stablecoin EURR to about 2 million customers in Denmark, Poland, and Portugal. Issued by Bridge under Stripe, the Luxembourg entity holds a MiCA license and backs the reserves 1:1 with euro cash. It will first launch on Ethereum and expand to multiple chains such as Solana and Arbitrum within the year. Revolut says this is just the "first step" and plans to launch other fiat stablecoins later.
The timing is very sharp—after August 31, Revolut will convert the remaining USDT of European customers into base currency. USDT has been pushed out by MiCA, and EURR fits perfectly to fill the gap. Revolut has 80 million global customers and 16 million crypto users, but the euro’s market share is negligible; Circle’s EURC circulation is only 400 million euros. If Revolut can convert just a small portion of its existing users, it can directly rewrite the market landscape of euro stablecoins.
However, one detail is worth noting— the EURR code has already been stigmatized after StablR was hacked and de-pegged. Although these are products from two completely different issuers, ordinary users may not distinguish them when searching.
With a compliant channel and built-in distribution, this is a card that neither Circle nor Tether can claim. The euro stablecoin track finally has a player that can truly change the landscape.SOL breaks through $110, Schwab is about to open the gate, why is this institutional buying different this time?
Solana today surpassed the $110 mark, reaching a new high since January this year. The cumulative net inflow of spot ETFs has exceeded $1.32 billion, with a single-day purchase hitting an annual peak of $60.91 million.
But what really deserves close attention is not the price increase, but the qualitative change in the buying structure.
Bitwise's BSOL fund asset size was the first to break through the $1 billion mark, accounting for nearly 80% of the entire market's ETF inflows. This highly concentrated chip accumulation means that the spot has not flowed to retail investors ready to sell at any time, but has been locked into underlying custody by compliant institutions in a closed form.
An even more significant catalyst is yet to come: Charles Schwab is about to integrate Solana into its Schwab Crypto product line, directly opening a configuration channel to nearly 40 million brokerage accounts under its umbrella.
40 million accounts are equivalent to twice the number of Coinbase's U.S. users. Once this compliant channel is opened, a massive amount of traditional middle-class funds that have never directly accessed the blockchain will be able to buy SOL with one click in their own stock accounts for the first time.
From professional hedge funds to a nationwide brokerage channel, this upgrade in capital dimension is vastly different from the usual pure capital rotation and altcoin speculation.
Facing the expectation of Schwab's 40 million accounts entering the market, do you think SOL can leverage this momentum to embark on an institutional bull run independent of the broader market?In the past, the Federal Reserve often provided a path and conditions for rate cuts, giving everyone ample expectations. Now it seems they are waiting to see how the market reacts instead of catering to the market to create consensus? So what will the subsequent market trend be?
Your understanding hits the nail on the head. This is precisely the most fundamental shift in the Fed's communication style this time: from the past "nanny-style forward guidance" back to a more classical "black-box data-driven" approach.
1. The Past (Bernanke/Yellen/Powell era): What is "nanny-style guidance"?
In the past decade or so (especially from the 2008 subprime crisis to the Powell era), the Fed heavily relied on forward guidance to manage market expectations:
Clear path given: Through the quarterly Dot Plot, directly telling Wall Street, "We expect 3 rate cuts this year, 4 next year, and the terminal neutral rate will be around 2.5%."
Clear conditions (Thresholds): Explicitly setting indicator red lines, such as "As long as unemployment stays below 4.5% and inflation falls below 2.5%, we will cut rates by 25 basis points each time on schedule."
Catering to the market's "Fed Put": Whenever Wall Street crashes or liquidity tightens, Fed officials would "dovishly reassure" in subsequent public speeches, feeding the market the rescue script in advance, fearing a financial market stampede.
Result: The market got used to being "fed," accustomed to front-running and pricing Fed actions 3 to 6 months ahead. Spot/low leverage buying on dips is recommended!
Upward driving factors
1. US Treasury repo restart triggers "currency depreciation trade"
The direct trigger for this rebound is the US Treasury's announcement on August 19 to at least double the scale of long-term Treasury repos to $4 billion each time, which the market interprets as implicit easing, pushing the US dollar weaker. Both cryptocurrencies and gold have benefited—Bitcoin has risen over 20% since August 19, and gold has increased about 14% in August.
2. Continuous large-scale inflows into ETFs
The US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded inflows for eight consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net inflow of over $2.6 to $2.8 billion. On August 28 alone, the net inflow reached $238 million. However, Fidelity's FBTC recorded an outflow of $83.6 million on the same day, indicating some divergence among institutions.
3. Institutional buying replaces short squeeze
The early stage of this rally was driven by over $2.7 billion in short liquidations, followed by active institutional buying. Bitcoin quotes on Coinbase relative to Binance have reappeared at a premium for the first time in about three months, indicating a return of US institutional capital allocation.$OKB current price 112, -1.38%. In the short term, I am bearish, characterizing this as a pullback washout after failing to break 120, not the start of a new trend. In recent days, spot volume has continuously shrunk from a high level, contract open interest (OI) has also fallen about 1.3%, but the funding rate remains positive; 24-hour long liquidations are about 140,000, while shorts are almost unaffected, indicating that the bulls are actively retreating, and the selling pressure is not a healthy turnover after a short squeeze. Contract data
Operation: Do not buy at 112, reduce positions first, wait for a bottom near 110 before considering a low buy. The first support is 110, strong support/bull-bear boundary is 105–106; the first resistance is 115, only consider 120 if volume increases and it stabilizes above. Breaking below 105 shifts to a downtrend structure, next target is 100. BTC risk appetite remains, but OKB is clearly underperforming, don’t use the strong market to justify bullish reasons for it. Precisely because Wash's hawkish speech this time is a medium-to-long-term negative factor, there is no rush for an immediate short-term drop. This is not a violent deleveraging sell-off like when the storage trio led by SK Hynix maxed out leverage and overdrew funds in a very short time, but rather a slow tightening of funds like boiling a frog in warm water.
Moreover, the market was previously most worried about fiscal discipline breakdown and long-term interest rates spiraling out of control. After Wash hinted at a rate hike in September, the market actually felt reassured, which is the reason for some slight rises in certain benchmarks.
Just now, the different interest rate performances of the 2/10/30-year US Treasury bonds precisely prove that the current policy mix is Wash lifting the short end and Bassett suppressing the long end. So for stocks, today is not purely a rate hike negative, but a short-end negative + long-end positive + earnings fundamentals positive.
As for operations, the same advice: orderly withdrawal from risk assets, a leading pattern is forming, don’t wait until the drop is over to chase shorts. After the 9.16 FOMC meeting rate hike, once the negative factors are fully priced in, you can go long (of course, there is also a golden pit to enter before that).
PS: The probability of a September rate hike has just increased by 2 points #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Short-term view after Wash's speech
Wash spoke punctually at 22:00, and the content was relatively balanced. The main focus remains on the stability of inflation indicators PCE and CPI. This was interpreted as a signal for a rate hike, which also supports the market's increased probability of a September rate hike.
However, if we carefully look at the 5-minute candlestick chart, it is clear that after 22:00 to 22:15, the detailed price movements of major coins like ETH and ENA show that the market is not buying in. See the details in the chart. If it were an extremely hawkish and risk-averse scenario, the 15-minute candlestick chart of ETH would have already shown continuous declines breaking below 2400, but in fact, the price remains steady as a rock, so we can ignore whether Wash's speech was good or bad.
Just answer two questions to place an order:
1. What is the current market condition and direction?
Although the market is not a bull market, it is a period of very positive sentiment. The direction is upward.
2. What stage is the market currently in?
The main upward phase from the 19th to the 24th has passed. The recent 4 days have seen high-level consolidation, undergoing one full consolidation and one rapid consolidation. Now it has entered the third stage of consolidation. If this is the final consolidation phase, then now is the time to enter.
I am looking at the 5-minute charts of ETH and BTC!
Therefore, I have quickly opened positions in trump, ENA, and XRP.
Stop loss is set at the lowest point of the 5-minute candlestick, using ETH as the main reference at 2461. As long as it breaks below here, all positions will be fully closed.Stock trading emphasizes "volume-price coordination," while in the crypto world, it's all about "sentiment coordination," but sentiment is the most unreliable factor.
I tried using the stock market's "right-side trading" approach, only to find that being even slightly late gets you hit; the crypto market flips faster than turning a page.
So now I use "left-side small orders to test the waters," buying a little as it dips, but keeping the total position to one-third of what I'd hold in stocks.
In stocks, I'm willing to add to losing positions, but in crypto, adding can be like throwing money into a bottomless pit, so I only add once; if it drops further, I accept the loss.
The news impact is ten times crazier than in stocks; a fake screenshot can make $BTC plunge thousands of points instantly.
My strategy is to clear half my position before major data releases; I'd rather miss out than gamble.
I set take-profit just three ticks below the previous high; once reached, I exit without greed for the last bit.
The stock market taught me patience to wait for trends; crypto taught me to act decisively—cut losses without hesitation.
I only trade $ETH spot swing trades; no matter how much others rise, I don't look at them, same principle as avoiding ST stocks back in the day.
Leverage? Even stock margin trading makes me uneasy; in crypto, don't even think about it.
Final iron rule: invest only spare money, no borrowing, no all-in; staying alive means there's a next round.
(Approx. 250 words, $ appears twice) #Will Walsh debut at Jackson Hole tonight, can he clarify the policy framework?
The boss has something to say
Walsh's speech landed, but the market didn't get the answers it wanted.
At 10 PM Beijing time on Friday, Walsh delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, titled "The Era We Are In." Listening through the whole speech, there was only one feeling: he said nothing, yet said everything.
Three key points
First, abandon forward guidance. Walsh clearly stated that forward guidance should be limited in normal times to avoid overcommitting to future interest rate paths. He said forward guidance has "overstayed its welcome." Previously, Fed chairs used Jackson Hole speeches to hint at the next steps; he used this speech to explain why he won't give direction. The reason is that when traders make decisions based on Fed hints rather than economic data, everyone sees a distorted picture. He calls this the "hall-of-mirrors problem."
Second, the 2% inflation target remains unchanged. He emphasized that the 2% inflation target is a "fixed and clear goal," "steadfast and unchangeable." The current policy focus should be on price stability.
Third, inflation is still high, and there is work to do. He said PCE and CPI data were better than expected but "did not make me believe that the underlying inflation trend has meaningfully improved." The standard is "we must be confident that core inflation is clearly moving toward the 2% target at a sufficiently fast pace. Otherwise, we still have work to do." The overall economy is strong, with capital expenditures growing about 9% year-over-year, the highest since 2021, S&P 500 earnings up over 20% year-over-year, and unemployment at a historic low of 4.1%. But PCE is 3.7% year-over-year, well above 2%.
Market reaction: hawkish but direction unclear
CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike rose from 36% before the speech to about 50%. The two-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points to 4.31%. Gold plunged $50 briefly to around $4560. The dollar strengthened. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell then rose, with the S&P basically flat. Bitcoin dropped about 0.89% to around 78,620, ETH fell about 1.3% to 2,477.
Why the market got no direction
The core of Walsh's entire speech was one sentence: I will not tell you the next step. The market wants a clear policy framework; he gave a "commitment to a policy discipline, not a specific policy decision."
For the crypto market, this is precisely the most troublesome outcome. Bitcoin rallied from 64,000 to above 81,000, the short squeeze ended, options just expired, and the market needs new catalysts to confirm direction. Walsh not giving direction means the market has to find its own way amid uncertainty.
Trading operations
Long Bitcoin at 78,500 and above 80,000 have been exited; Ethereum longs from 2,480 to 2,520 also exited; short at 2,540 stopped out at 2,580, still holding. After tonight's speech landed, no direction was given, but rate hike expectations are heating up, short-term bias is bearish on risk assets. Continue holding shorts, target 2,450 to 2,470, stop loss unchanged at 2,580. Heavy positions wait for pullback confirmation before deciding, no rush to bet on direction. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is timely; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.$BTC This round of Bitcoin's rebound is reflected not only in price but also in how it links with traditional assets. Grayscale research shows that Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has risen above 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped to about 33%. This means the recent market has leaned more toward Bitcoin as a scarce macro asset rather than a highly volatile alternative to tech trading. However, whether this change will continue depends on subsequent price data, as rolling correlation changes with updated samples. During the rebound phase, correlation changes occur simultaneously, occurring during a period of strong Bitcoin gains this year. From August 17 to August 21, BTC rose from about $62,679 to $79,500, a 4-day increase of about 27%. Factors driving this round of gains include adjustments in U.S. Treasury repurchase operations, a weaker dollar, short positions being closed, and a rebound in institutional demand. After improved market liquidity, long-term yield pressures have eased, providing support for alternative assets. ETF funds continue to flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, further reinforcing this rebound. Coinpaper cited data stating that as of August 27, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $242.3 million that day, marking nine consecutive trading days of net inflows. On August 27, a single-day net inflow of $242.3 million continued to be observed 🎽In my opinion, tonight's speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is meant to signal that the worst of the negative news is over, or the "boot has dropped." The subsequent market movement usually unfolds in three stages:
First, an instant oversold rebound. When the negative news is realized, the last batch of panic sellers exit, creating a vacuum in selling pressure. Prices quickly recover, with previously oversold quality assets showing the greatest elasticity. This rebound💎From August 17 to August 21, and August 24 to August 28
During these two weeks of trading days, data shows that Bitcoin had the largest single-week dollar increase in history (a weekly rise of $14,700)
With an increase of over 23%. Although a 23% weekly gain sounds crazy, most of the feeling from this rise is like a classic short squeeze
This week Bitcoin reached a high of $81,000, but the market did not provide any particularly positive news
The only possibility is that short covering gradually pushed the price higher. This is not hard to see on the candlestick chart
According to order flow data: open interest contracts began to rebuild, and leverage started to reshape
But the real question is, once leverage falls back or is liquidated again, can new spot demand truly support these levels
It's the weekend again, and personally I think the focus should be on:
Whether we will have a few days of boring sideways consolidation to establish real support?
Whether spot trading volume is sufficient to really support these prices, or if this rise was mainly just liquidation?
After such a rise, everyone is eager to predict new highs
But honestly, I’d rather see some calm price action first
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The Federal Reserve only has inflation in its sights, ignoring employment. Although the data isn't as alarming as last year, the overall situation has already cooled down and is heading towards a crash, yet they are still considering raising interest rates.
Truly a new official igniting three fires upon taking office. Walsh's choice is very clear: tackle inflation first, push employment issues to later, and now the probability of a rate hike has increased to 57%.
However, except for the metals sector, I haven't seen much reaction from tech or mainstream markets. I guess the market is completely unwilling to buy into this kind of empty talk. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ 2. Zhipu AI (02526.HK)
The GLM‑5.3‑Flash model has been open-sourced, with overseas platform call volumes rapidly increasing. All inference is completed using domestic computing power. B-end government and enterprise API orders continue to grow, and capital keeps favoring Hong Kong stock large model targets. The large model sector is highly competitive, with price wars compressing gross margins and computing power costs remaining high, yet profitability has not been achieved. The stock price is clearly driven by AI sector sentiment, and performance realization depends on the government and enterprise payment conversion rate, with strong thematic volatility.A new wallet deposits 4 million USDC and shorts 300 BTC with 30x leverage
A short position of 300 $BTC is a "high-level hedge/gamble," not a signal of a market top.
The new wallet deposits 4 million USDC, opens a 30x leveraged short of 300 BTC, with a nominal position of about 23.76 million USD and a liquidation price of 90,820 USD. At the time of the news, BTC was about 79,000 USD, leaving only about 15% before liquidation. The 30x leverage itself indicates this is an extremely aggressive short-term bet.
More importantly, BTC previously rose from about 65,000 to near 80,000 USD, a weekly increase of about 22%, which has clearly caused a short squeeze; there have even been cases in the market of 300 BTC shorts at 40x leverage continuously losing. So now, the increase in short positions may actually provide "fuel" for the bulls.
The market has already priced in some of the rise but has not confirmed a top. I am most optimistic about BTC because once it breaks through 81,000 and continues approaching 90,000, this kind of 30x short position could become potential fuel. It is worth paying attention to now, but don't short along with the whales; the real key levels are the 80,000 USD support and the 90,820 USD liquidation wall.At the Jackson Hole annual meeting, the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal far exceeding market expectations. Officials clearly stated that the current financial environment is by no means "restrictive," corporate investment and the labor market remain solid, and the progress of inflation returning to the 2% target is far from convincing. This statement directly shattered the market's previously overly optimistic rate cut fantasies, with the Fed even hinting that if inflation does not improve quickly, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
The bond market reacted very quickly and directly, with short-term U.S. Treasuries sold off, the 2-year Treasury yield rising 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the 30-year yield slightly fell 1 basis point to 5.19%. The market's expectation of a rate hike in September has significantly increased. When the central bank clearly places the inflation target above economic easing and believes that current borrowing costs have not truly suppressed the economy, the reality of maintaining high interest rates for longer is hard to avoid.
For risk assets including cryptocurrencies, the macro liquidity headwinds are intensifying. Against the backdrop of high funding costs and a tightening cycle that has not truly ended, risk assets like $BTC will continue to face valuation compression and liquidity withdrawal pressure, and the risk of blindly betting on a monetary policy pivot is rising sharply 5. Coinbase (COIN)
Following the strengthening of the crypto market, the rebound in Bitcoin prices has driven expectations for improved platform trading fees. The U.S. market's anticipation of crypto regulatory legislation is heating up, leading to capital flowing back into crypto assets. Performance fully follows the crypto market's bull and bear cycles, with revenue shrinking rapidly during bear markets. Uncertainty in U.S. regulatory policies remains unresolved; policy changes will directly impact the business, making it a highly volatile and high-risk asset.BTC surged to 81,000 then fell back to 79,000, a programmatic game around options expiration
6.4 billion USD in options expired, with market makers' Gamma hedging dominating the market.
Large amounts of bullish chips accumulated at 75,000 and 80,000, price trapped in a range, facing selling pressure on rises and support on dips.
The mid-term outlook remains bullish, no additional positions added at the key levels.
If 80,000 doesn't hold, treat it as a shakeout; if 75,000 holds, maintain the base position.
Wait for options positions to settle and volatility to decrease before a true direction emerges.
Short-term is prone to range-based harvesting; hold the base position mid-term, don't get shaken out by short-term noise, consider adding only after a valid breakout above 80,000.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
$ETH $SOL $BTC Two signals exploded simultaneously, but in completely opposite directions. Tonight at 22:00, the market was hit by two bombs at once. First: The US nonfarm payroll benchmark revised down by 79,000, while market expectations were revised upward by 183,000, a full 260,000 difference from reality. The private sector was even harsher, directly revised down by 178,000. This marks the second consecutive year of sharp downward revisions—last year it was revised down by 860,000, this year by another 79,000. The direction of this data is dovish: employment is not as good as expected, the economy is weaker than expected, and the likelihood of Fed rate cuts is increasing. Second: Federal Reserve Chair Wash-Jackson Hole gave his debut speech, showing a broadly hawkish stance. He said inflation has not truly slowed, that the current financial environment is not restrictive, that interest rates are the main tool, that the 2% target is firmly held, and that prices are the top priority right now. The direction of this speech was hawkish: Don't think about cutting rates—inflation isn't settled yet, and hikes should be raised. One dovish data and another hawkish speech were almost simultaneously thrown out. The market was first teased by the nonfarm pay (the rate cut dream was ignited), then woken up by Wash's slap (the rate cut dream was shattered). Who won in the end? Wash's victory. And he won decisively. 1. Wash's five major hawkish signals, every sentence crushing rate cut expectations This time, Walsh's speech was far more hawkish than the market expected. Previously, the market gave him odds of: 50% vague, 30% dovish, 20% hawkish. But he directly chose the one with the lowest probability, and it was quite hawkish. Signal one: "Inflation has not truly slowed"—directly disproving market optimism. Recently$FIG (Figma) — Closed at $30.62, up +13.28% for the day
$FIG rose 13.28% today, with an intraday high of $31.22 and a low of $27.75, and a trading volume of about 27.51 million shares.
With AI-generated interfaces, will designers no longer need Figma?
I believe not in the short term. AI can quickly generate the first version, but the team still needs to modify, collaborate, review, and deliver. The real value is not just drawing a picture, but enabling the entire product team to work in the same environment.
$FIG's opportunity lies in integrating AI into the design process, rather than competing with AI on who draws faster.
The risk is that as generative design tools increase, basic design functions may gradually lose their differentiation.
$27.75 is support, $31.22 is resistance. Going forward, it depends on whether today's rise is driven by the software sector or if the market has genuinely raised expectations for $FIG's own growth.
I am Yuvi. AI can generate designs, but what companies ultimately purchase is collaboration efficiency.After Waller's speech, an interesting signal appeared in the market: the 2-year US Treasury yield rose, while the 30-year yield actually fell.
This curve change is actually quite healthy. The short-end rate rising indicates the market has accepted the recent monetary policy tightening reality, without self-deception or fantasizing about easing. The long-end rate not soaring out of control means the market is not worried that the Fed has lost control over inflation — this is the most important.
For growth stocks, this is good news. The decline in long-term rates lowers the discount rate for future cash flows, naturally easing valuation pressure. Tight in the short term, stable in the long term, actually gives high-valuation assets some breathing room.
The market is voting with the yield curve: short-term pain is acceptable, but long-term confidence remains.What does Walsh's first Jackson Hole speech mean for the crypto market? Federal Reserve Chairman Mark delivered his first speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. Overall, it was a hawkish speech: although no rate hike was announced directly, it clearly shattered the market's optimistic expectation that monetary policy would soon shift to easing. Walsh stated that the Fed must see inflation clearly and quickly return to the 2% target, or further action will be necessary. Currently, U.S. PCE inflation is 3.7% year-on-year, and the decline over the past two years has not been ideal. Meanwhile, U.S. employment, consumption, corporate investment, and credit markets remain resilient, and the overall financial environment is not particularly tight. This means that if inflation remains high, the Fed may still raise rates. After the speech, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September rose from about 35% to nearly 50%, the dollar index rose, and short-term U.S. Treasury yields rose. These changes are generally bearish for the crypto market. First, after U.S. Treasury yields rise, holding dollars and short-term Treasuries yields higher returns, making highly volatile assets like Bitcoin less attractive. Second, a stronger dollar usually means tighter global liquidity, which is unfavorable for BTC, ETH, and altcoin valuations. Finally, persistently high interest rates increase leverage costs, which can easily trigger concentrated liquidations in the futures market. Looking at coin performance, Bitcoin is supported by ETF funds and may have stronger resilience than other crypto assets. However, BTC has already rebounded quickly from about $64,000 to around $80,000, accumulating considerable wealth9. LME copper prices continue to hit record highs, with the non-ferrous metals cyclical sector strengthening
LME copper prices keep breaking historical highs. AI computing power, new energy, and power grid upgrades drive sustained demand. Global new copper mine capacity is limited, and supply is tight, leading to significantly improved interim results for copper companies in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Commodities are highly influenced by global macro liquidity; once overseas monetary policies shift, copper prices face rapid correction risks. The cyclical sector experiences high volatility, so investors need to view the price increase theme rationally. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP Rose 160% in 10 Days, From 1.37 All the Way to 3.6 White House Crypto Summit The CLARITY Act Was Raised, New Coin Rumors Sparked FOMO and RSI Overbought, Trading Volume Abnormally Amplified Typical High-Level Volatility After Overheated Rebound First Event: New Coin Rumors Pulled Up, Debunked and Sold Off This Script Is Too Familiar Someone Rumors Rumors Say Trump Will Issue New Coins, Spot Markets Jumped from 1.4 to 3.6, Retail Investors' FOMO Rushed In, Eric Trump Later Confirmed There Were No New Coins The claim to be issued is a scam, prices fall back immediately, rumors are being manipulated and disproved to be distorted, and sales are being sold off countless times. This assembly line has run countless times. Retail investors are still chasing Trump's bull market. Internally linked wallets have already transferred tokens to OK and cashed out millions of dollars. The second thing is: the White House meeting is real, but the meeting doesn't mean price pumping. Trump met with crypto executives urging Congress to push forward the Market Structure Act, and the narrative rekindled the pro-crypto president. This is indeed good news, but the good news has been fulfilled. And then, the CLARITY Act is a procedural progress, not a real implementation There will be progress in mid-September and another sentiment pulse, but after the pulse, it's likely still to be sold. The biggest fear of meme coins isn't that no one buys, but that the insiders sell when you jump in. Third, a technical signal that must be taken seriously: from 1.37 to 3.6, a 10-day 170% surge. This is a triple resonance of oversold conditions, bear squeeze, and rumors, not a healthy trend. Now it has fallen from 3.6 to 2.8, which is a second rebound after a rally, not a main upward continuation aboveRegarding SanDisk, the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged. Its $93.9 billion in long-term contracts provide strong revenue visibility for the years ahead, and the longer-term price targets from investors still look reasonable.
However, the short-term picture is different. The stock had rallied too aggressively, prompting profit-taking, while sentiment across the tech sector cooled and its latest guidance came in below expctations.
#WalshPolicyFramework
#AIShiftsToSoftware #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
MicroStrategy, once the top bull, has now changed its approach.
This has two layers of impact on the crypto community.
First, the market's most steadfast bull has paused, which definitely affects short-term sentiment. People were used to Saylor calling trades weekly and continuously buying, but now that expectation is gone. However, this is not a signal that the bull market is over; he has always added positions at the bottom, just with a different strategy.
Second, in the medium to long term, this is actually a good thing. Previously, the high-leverage cycle, once broken, would cause a chain reaction of liquidations. Now, with a $5.1 billion cash reserve plus 840,000 BTC holdings, the foundation is more stable. He himself said he won't be forced to sell coins at low prices. He can survive without cutting losses, and the coins he holds will only become more valuable.
Here’s my take.
Saylor switching from reckless buying to survival mode precisely shows that this old fox is clearer-headed than anyone. With a $10 billion unrealized loss on the books and $1.76 billion in annual interest payments, borrowing more to buy coins would be truly self-destructive. Stockpiling cash, stabilizing preferred shares, and holding firmly onto 840,000 BTC means he can strike back whenever the opportunity arises.
MicroStrategy pausing purchases puts short-term pressure on sentiment, but their core holdings remain untouched, with $5.1 billion cash on hand. The direction won't reverse just because of one strategy change.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP $NOW (ServiceNow) — Closed at $138.43, up +10.04% for the day
$NOW rose 10.04% today, with an intraday high of $139.32 and a low of $130.25, trading volume around 27.71 million shares.
After enterprises adopt AI, the most practical issue is not how smart the model is, but whether it can integrate into the company's actual workflows.
This is where $NOW's value lies. It manages internal corporate approvals, IT services, and automation processes. For AI agents to truly assist employees in completing tasks, they need to connect to these systems.
However, today's market is trading on the AI value of the entire enterprise software sector, which does not necessarily mean every company will achieve the same revenue.
Around $130 is short-term support, and around $139.30 is resistance. Going forward, the focus is not whether the sector can continue to rise together, but whether $NOW's AI capabilities can increase contract amounts and renewal rates.
I am Yuvi. After AI enters enterprises, the model is just the brain; the workflow determines whether it can truly get things done. After Walsh's speech, the crypto market remained largely stable. BTC fell about 0.89% in fifteen minutes, ETH dropped about 1.3%. The core reason lies in the combination of "hawkish but unsurprising" and "pre-priced." The speech itself did not break expectations. Wash clearly stated that inflation remains too high, and that the 2% target is "unwavering and unchangeable." "The current financial environment is hard to call obviously restrictive." His stance leaned hawkish, but before the speech, the market's expected probability of a rate hike in September had risen to 40%. Wash's statement was basically within the market's already priced range. He also explicitly refused to issue forward-looking guidance, stating that "oversharing policy discussion details may mislead the market." The directional answer the market most wanted was missed. BTC had already risen once before the speech Over the past week, BTC surged from about $64,000 to nearly $80,000. Part of the gain was due to pricing in macro events. The slight drop after the speech was delivered was more like a typical case of "buying expectations, selling facts" to take profits rather than panic reactions to the content of the speech. The AI topic diluted its immediate impact. Wash spent considerable space discussing the long-term impact of AI on productivity and the economy. This content was unrelated to short-term monetary policy and diluted the "immediate impact" of the speech. The market structure itself is also moving in the same direction Before the speech, the crypto market was already consolidating. Traders are reluctant to heavily bet before major events. BTC's 4-hour RSI has fallen from overbought to neutral. The market is shifting from "rate cut" logic to expecting "higher and longer" interest rates. New catalysts are needed to break the deadlock. What should we watch next? with AAVE up 33% in the week to launch, Ghost Pass can widen Aave's app reach but adds little near-term support. 50k waitlist signups do not fund the vault. users must retain deposits for spreads to reach the DAO, then governance decides whether revenue reaches AAVE holders.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Walsh's debut is clearly hawkish: The real risk for BTC is not the absence of rate cuts, but that "high interest rates are not over yet" The signals Walsh sent at Jackson Hole are tougher than the market expected. The core logic is simple: inflation is still too high, and current financial conditions can hardly be called truly restrictive. He clearly stated that if inflation does not sustainably and significantly fall back to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do"; meanwhile, the labor maETF has continuous net inflows, but the nature of the two types of funds is completely different, so don't be misled by surface data
BTC and ETH spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with the total weekly inflow hitting a nearly 10-month high. BlackRock is the main buyer. However, there is a structural difference that is easy to overlook:
In BTC-ETF, a large portion comes from long-term allocation funds such as pension funds and endowment funds, which hold long-term after purchase, forming the market base and rarely redeem frequently.
In contrast, ETH-ETF has a more complex fund structure. Besides long-term allocation, a large amount comes from macro hedging and swing trading funds. These funds enter the market to speculate on short-term catch-up rallies, and once macro data falls short of expectations, they quickly redeem and exit.
I just got unstuck this afternoon and didn’t leave, now I’m stuck again. Interesting.
The direct result on the market is: on days with ETF inflows, $BTC buying is solid with support on pullbacks; $ETH has strong upward impulses but weaker sustainability, and it is easy to face selling pressure after surging.
Many traders simply equate ETF net inflows with blind buying, ignoring the nature of the funds. Now with intensive macro data releases, such as unemployment benefits and Michigan consumer sentiment being published in succession, the speed of swing funds entering and exiting will accelerate. Continuous ETF inflows represent support at the base but do not mean deep pullbacks won’t occur. Futures trading cannot rely solely on ETF data as a trading basis.Just watched Walsh's speech, and as expected, it had little impact on the market; the trend continues as it was. He opposes forward-looking guidance and hopes everyone interprets the current environment on their own. Naturally, he won't intervene proactively; unless in extreme situations, the market is still left to digest on its own. Regarding specific asset prices, after most selling is done, new buyers willing to continue investing will naturally drive prices up, and vice versa. It can be said that after events that directly affect the market occur, people only realize it belatedly, meaning 99.9% of events are just noise. $BTC $SNDK The Jackson Hole annual meeting has entered a critical moment, and tonight's market attention is almost entirely focused on Wash's first public speech. Given the current macro environment, several variables deserve close attention: 📌 Market background before the speech · Rising policy uncertainty: This is an important public appearance since Wash's new term. Previously, he remained cautious about the future interest rate path without providing clear forward-looking guidance, causing noticeable volatility in the bond market. Whether a clearer policy framework can be released tonight will directly affect market expectations. · Inflation remains under pressure: Latest data shows the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index was about 3.1% year-on-year, still significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Some officials remain concerned about sticky inflation, prompting the market to reassess the future interest rate path. 📈 What is the market expecting? Currently, the market generally believes that Walsh may not directly signal a rate hike or cut, but is more likely to emphasize the balance between inflation, employment, and financial conditions. What truly deserves attention is not a single sentence, but his overall description of inflation trends, interest rate levels, and the financial environment. ⚠️ Volatility risk should not be underestimated Historically, Jackson Hole's speeches have sometimes caused only brief disturbances, but if the language is clearly hawkish, risk assets may quickly reprice. Especially since the current $BTC is in a critical range, synchronized changes in US stocks, the dollar, and Treasury yields could amplify volatility in the crypto market. Tonight, focus on three things: 1️⃣ Whether Wash has issued a clear interest rate direction 2️⃣ US Treasury yields and the dollar#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Warsh's debut at Jackson Hole tonight, can he clarify the policy framework?
Warsh's first appearance at Jackson Hole landed with a tone more hawkish than the market expected.
As his first keynote speech at Jackson Hole since taking office, the core statement was very clear: the 2% inflation target measured by PCE is "firm and unshakable." Recent inflation data beating expectations does not mean the underlying trend has meaningfully improved. The Fed's current primary focus is on prices.
The most critical sentence: "We must be confident that core inflation is clearly and quickly moving back to target, or else we have more work to do," which directly leaves room for further rate hikes. At the same time, he reiterated that short-term interest rates are the main policy tool, unconventional policies are only for real crises, continued to defend abandoning forward guidance, and maintained a "data-dependent" communication style.
The market reacted quickly: after the speech, spot gold plunged briefly, the dollar index rose, and U.S. Treasury yields increased. Previously, the market had expectations for policy easing, but now the hawkish bottom line has been clearly drawn.
The crypto market reacted simultaneously. Bitcoin just completed $6.4 billion in options settlement, $BTC is consolidating narrowly near 80,000. Volatility did increase after Warsh's speech, but it did not effectively break the strong intraday support at 78,000; $ETH is fluctuating near the 2,500 level. Risk assets overall have entered a phase of digesting policy signals.
This time no clear rate hike timetable was given, but the bottom line of "acting if inflation does not fall" was revealed. The rate hike expectations for the September FOMC meeting will likely be revised upward, and upcoming inflation data will carry more weight. $BTC $2.8 TRUMP—do you want to chase it?
Looking at the surface first: 160% rise in 10 days, retail investors frantically chase the market, shouting "Trump bull."
On August 13, it bottomed at 1.37, then surged violently, reaching a high of 3.6 in 10 days, a 170% increase. White House crypto summit, CLARITY bill introduced, "new coin" rumors trigger FOMO.
RSI is overbought, CCI is overbought, trading volume is abnormally amplified, and after an overheated rebound, it is experiencing high-level oscillation.
First thing: rumors about "new coins" driving up the market, then selling after debunking them—the script is too familiar.
Some accounts leaked that "Trump is going to issue new coins," and spot prices jumped from 1.4 to 3.6, causing retail investors' FOMO to rush in. Eric Trump then declared: there was no new coin, and the claim to issue new coins was a scam. The price immediately retreated.
Rumors pulling the market, fake selling off, this assembly line has run countless times on this coin. Retail investors are still rushing for the "Trump bull," with internal linked wallets already transferring tokens to OK to cash out millions of dollars.
The second thing: The White House meeting is real, but "meeting" does not mean "price pumping."
Trump met crypto executives at the White House and urged Congress to advance the Market Structure Bill, relighting the "pro-crypto president" narrative. This was indeed a positive development. The good news was realized, and then what?
The CLARITY Act is a procedural progress, not an actual implementation. If there is progress in mid-September, there will be another emotional pulse, but after the pulse, it's highly likely you'll still sell. The biggest fear of meme coins isn't that no one buys them, but that insiders sell when you rush in.
Third: A signal from the technical side that must be taken seriously.
From 1.37 to 3.6, a 10-day rise of 170%—this is a triple resonance of oversold + bearish squeeze + rumors, not a healthy trend. Now the price has fallen from 3.6 to 2.8, which is a "second rebound after a surge," not a "main rally relay."
The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you
On one side:
The White House personally endorsed it, reigniting the political narrative
It rebounded violently from 1.37, turning bullish
BTC holds above 80,000, risk appetite is rising
Spot ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, improving liquidity
On one side:
It rose 170% in 10 days, technically seriously overheated
Internal linked wallets continue to ship + 900,000 coins unlocked daily
On September 18, there will be another large unlock (28.7 million tokens)
About 98% of buyers remain stuck, with heavy selling pressure above
Resistance above: 2.90-2.96 → 3.20-3.25→ 3.55-3.77
Support below: 2.50-2.55 (lifeline) → 2.20-2.25 (20-week EMA) → 2.05 (breakout and weakening) → 1.37-1.50 (deep decline)
Scenario A: Pullback and go long
Wait until volume shrinks and stabilizes at 2.52-2.58, then move forward, stop loss at 2.45, target 3.05-3.20. Alternatively, hold above 2.96 on increased volume to chase a breakout, stop loss at 2.78, target 3.20/3.55.
Scenario B: Short at a high level
If there is a long upper shadow, volume-price divergence, or higher rates between 2.88 and 2.96, you can go short, targeting 2.55/2.22 and a stop loss at 3.05. For short positions, you should also guard against short squeezes caused by "dovish speech + BTC rebound"; the position must be smaller than for long positions.
Scenario C: Wait and see
If it breaks below 2.50 and cannot recover within 1 hour, first short the position. The next watch point is 2.21. Only after holding hold will the bullish position be reassessed; If it breaks below 2.05, the 1.37 rebound structure will end.
Operational strategy
The iron rule of position positioning:
This is a high-volatility political meme, perpetuating only 3-5 times
Risk control for a single transaction is 1%-2% of principal
No overnight heavy positions betting on speeches; Warsh reduces positions before and after his speech
"Hold firm" has a negative expected value on this coin. The strategy must be swing, not faith.
It dropped from 75 to 1.37, then from 1.37 to 2.8, but the essence hasn't changed: it's still an Attention Asset + Unlock Machine.
A large portion of the trading volume you see at 2.8 is from contract gamblers and insiders trading hands in the counterparty's market. In the short term, you can catch volatility; in the medium to long term, don't use spot thinking to "bottom-fish and wait for doubling."
You watch the rebound, the team watches your buys.
Have you made or lost money on TRUMP?
2.8 At this position, would you dare to get on board?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP Risk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to pay attention to risks. As institutional funds deepen their involvement and compliance systems gradually take shape, the overall margin for error in the crypto market is changing. On one hand, large capital inflows have erased some of the most irrational surges and falls; On the other hand, institutional portfolio rebalancing, ETF subscriptions and redemptions, and derivative linkages have amplified the intensity of medium-term volatility. BTC and ETH share the same macro environment, but their tolerance thresholds are completely different. Recognizing their differences and establishing position thinking suited to a volatile environment is far more meaningful than obsessively predicting tops and bottoms. Bitcoin's market fault tolerance threshold is relatively higher. Its narrative is simple and clear, total supply is scarce, and regulatory positioning is well-defined, making it a choice for institutions to diversify their allocation. ETF funds flow in two directions: subscriptions raise prices when the market is good, redemptions when risks rise create selling pressure, and there is no one-way permanent buying. Long-term holders accumulate large base positions, and pullbacks provide support momentum, but this does not mean prices won't experience intermediate pullbacks. Historical trapped positions, short-term profit-taking positions, and institutional profit-taking will still trigger significant pullbacks. Bitcoin has no cash flow; valuations anchor liquidity and risk appetite. Once macro trends suddenly shift, valuation centers will still shift downward. High fault tolerance means it's easier to attract funds after declines, but it doesn't mean prices won't fall. Ethereum's fault tolerance threshold is significantly lower. ETH's price is highly dependent on risk appetite, and speculative funds make up a higher proportion of holder structure. When market sentiment is optimistic, it's highly elastic;