Post

SOL at $104, are you planning to add more? First, look at the surface: a spike followed by a pullback, retail investors start to panic. Yesterday it touched 110.6, today it dropped straight back to 105, the daily candle shows a long upper shadow. From 70 to 110 in August, up 43%, with almost no proper pullbacks in between. The candlestick tells you: RSI hit over 80 yesterday, seriously overbought, a pullback today was inevitable. Profit-taking will happen, but the trend is not broken. First thing: Can't break 110? Look at how it got from 70 to 110. This week SOL ETF inflows reached $75 million, with August cumulative inflows exceeding $113 million, total net inflows about $1.25 billion. Morgan Stanley's MSOL, Bitwise's BSOL, VanEck's VSOL are all buying. Charles Schwab just announced adding SOL to its retail crypto trading platform—this is the second institutional capital entry after ETFs. SIMD-550/SIMD-553 governance vote: annual token burn increased from 15% to 30%, transaction fee burn significantly raised. Second thing: On-chain data is scorching hot, price hasn't caught up. July saw a record 4.2 billion transactions, RWA close to $4 billion, stablecoin supply at 15-16 billion. Daily DEX volume often around 2-3.5 billion, application layer still profitable, not just empty hype. August's 43% rise is not retail FOMO-driven, it's real money from ETFs buying. On-chain activity at historic highs, not "usage only after price rises," but consistent usage. Compared to the 2025 peak of 294, 105 is still mid-mountain. Third thing: Tonight's Jackson Hole is the biggest variable, but don't get distracted by noise. Warsh's Friday speech window is today, the market is betting on two things: interest rate tone + wording on stablecoins/tokenization. Any hawkish remarks will first hit high-beta SOL hard. Bull vs. bear, you decide. On one side: August up 43%, ETF cumulative inflows $1.25 billion, continuous institutional capital Deflationary vote advancing, supply tightening + 70% staked, circulating supply very tight On-chain transaction volume, RWA, stablecoins all at record highs Charles Schwab listing, institutional access broadening On the other side: Daily RSI over 80, seriously overbought needing digestion Failed to break 110 three times, clear short-term supply zone If Jackson Hole is hawkish, high-beta will be hit first If BTC is unstable, SOL will fall harder Resistance above: 107-108 → 110/110.6 (critical line) → 118-122 → 123-128 Support below: 100-102 (psychological level) → 96-98 (main uptrend reload zone) → 91-94 Trading strategy Short-term players: Plan A (conservative): Don't chase at 105. Buy lightly on pullback to 100-102, target 108-110. Add more on deeper pullback 96-98, target 110→118. Stop loss below 95.5. Plan B (aggressive, for those with a base position): Clear bottoming at 105-106 (long lower shadow + reclaim 106.5), play rebound targeting 108.5-110, stop loss 104.2. Reduce position at 110. For shorts: Short on rebound at 109.5-110.6 with obvious upper shadow and volume stall, target 105/102. Or short if 4H closes below 100, target 96. Mid-term players: Hold 100, buy 96-98, sell at 110. If breaks and holds 110, chase 118-128. This August rally in SOL is driven by ETF + broker access + supply reform + on-chain activity, not empty hype. Mid-term outlook remains bullish, next observation zone 118-128. Best approach is not chasing at 105, but: Hold 100, buy 96-98; sell at 110; chase after breaking 110. Tonight's Jackson Hole is a catalyst, not the intrinsic value. Keep positions light before the speech. What's your cost basis for SOL? At 104, do you dare to add or run first? $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？