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Regarding U.S. Treasury bonds, an interesting phenomenon occurred tonight: after Wash's speech, the 2-year yield surged first, followed closely by the 10-year yield, while the 30-year long bond yield increase slowed compared to the 2-year and 10-year yields.
Obviously, the slowdown in long bond yields mainly comes from two factors: one is the long bond repurchase by the Fed on September 9, and the other is the recent economic data plus the weakening crude oil prices leading to a slowdown in future inflation expectations.
Clearly, the market still has concerns about short- and medium-term inflation, but long-term inflation pressure is easing, as current economic data supports the expectation of weakening inflation growth.
The rising rate hike expectations still significantly suppress risk assets and risk appetite in U.S. stocks, but one benefit is that it causes gold prices to drop rapidly. If gold can return to the 4000-4100 range within the next three months, it would be a very good asset allocation target.
Personally, I believe that in the coming months, rate hike expectations are very likely to become extreme again. Furthermore, if August data again proves consumer recession, gold will also be one of the very good assets to hedge against economic risks. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ This week, the crypto market saw a sharp rally. BTC started at 62,400 and broke through 81,200 on Monday, hitting a five-month high, with a weekly gain of 26%; ETH also rose 31% to reach 2,500, XRP surged nearly 50% for the week, SOL hit 102, and ZEC surged 70% to an eight-year high. The total market capitalization surged $474 billion in a week, with the Fear and Greed Index briefly touching the extreme greed range of 81. Behind the rally was not a single driver but a triple resonance: spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw weekly net inflows of about $2.6 billion, the strongest since October last year, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for 80%; On the policy side, the White House pushed forward with the CLARITY Act, the SEC shifted to replacing enforcement with a legislative framework, and Standard Chartered simultaneously issued compliant stablecoins; On the macro side, U.S. debt buybacks and a weaker dollar opened up room for risk assets. More noteworthy is that bears suffered heavy losses: during BTC's breakthrough of 80,000, about $1.06 billion in positions were liquidated, with shorts losing about $3 billion for the week and over $600 million liquidated across the network in a single day, causing losses for both bulls and bears. The turning point came on Wednesday, when BTC fell back to 79,000 and ETH held steady at 2,470. Whales began reducing positions at high levels—Hyperliquid sold large amounts of 60,000 ETH and 1,200“Inflation target remains firm, there is still work to do” — One sentence from Wash, gold plunges 40 points! $XAU #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC has directly dropped to 77830, and the data release actually caused a further decline. The market is following a "recession expectation" logic, with funds moving to safe havens rather than risk assets.
RSI at 47 is not extreme, KDJ is neutral, MACD death cross is widening, short-term bears dominate. The news of Capital B buying 270 BTC cannot hold up the market, indicating very poor market sentiment now. $ETH #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The transcript of Waller's Jackson Hole speech has been officially released by the Federal Reserve, and Reuters has reported on the market reaction.
The three most critical points are as follows. First, he clearly put inflation back as the top priority, emphasizing that the Fed must be confident that core inflation is "clearly and at a sufficient pace" returning to target; otherwise, the Fed "still has work to do." Second, he reaffirmed that the 2% inflation target is a firm fixed goal, giving no hint of easing that the market expected. Third, he believes current financial conditions do not appear tight, which is important because it means he does not think the current monetary environment is tight enough to require rate cuts. Reuters considers this Waller's closest statement so far to admitting "if inflation doesn't come down, further rate hikes may be needed."
Hawkish speech → BTC under pressure → altcoins first sharply drop → followed by the first round of rebound.
For our current trading judgment, this actually makes 79k BTC more important.
If after digesting the speech BTC falls below 79k and cannot recover, and ETH finally breaks below 2480, I will significantly raise the judgment that "81.2k is a false breakout top," and at that time BCH / PENGU / SUI / ZEC / DASH, these highly sensitive coins, will again become key short candidates.
If after such a hawkish speech BTC can still hold 79k and ETH continues to stay above 2500, that would instead be a very noteworthy signal of bearish strength without a price drop.$BTC breaks below 77,000, SOL defies the trend with deflation—market is repricing
The aftershocks of Wash's hawkish remarks are still ongoing. BTC fell below $77,000, hitting a low of 76,847; $ETH dropped to 2,405; SOL showed relative resilience at $103. In the past 24 hours, BTC dropped over 4%, ETH about 3%.
Wash clearly stated that inflation has not seen a “meaningful sustained slowdown,” and the financial environment is “not restrictive.” The market quickly repriced—short-term US Treasury yields rose, and traders increased bets on a September rate hike.
But one detail is worth noting: BTC only mildly retreated to around 77,000, not a full-scale risk-off sell-off. ETF declines were much smaller than those of mining companies, showing clear market differentiation—it looks more like digesting policy expectations rather than a fundamental shock.
$SOL is the outlier today. The Solana governance community narrowly passed a proposal to "double the deflation rate," increasing the annual inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%. Over the next six years, this will cut about 18.9 million new SOL supply, involving approximately $1.36 billion. Meanwhile, the first functional gate went live, reducing token account storage costs by 90%.
BTC is digesting rate hike expectations, while SOL is hedging macro pressure with a deflation narrative. At the 80,000 level, both bulls and bears need to recalculate.
Old K is done talking. Ponder it carefully. 🚀 $BTC | DEMAND IS CHANGING
Bitcoin’s latest rally isn’t just retail chasing price. Spot ETFs have pulled in $2.5B over seven trading days, the strongest stretch since October. $BTC
The deeper shift is that BTC is becoming part of how traditional capital expresses a view on money, liquidity, and monetary policy.$BTC
Bitcoin is moving from a crypto allocation to a macro allocation. 🔥
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware Whether this round of SOL has heated up can be answered with speed; Whether the market is biased or bullish depends on another set of numbers. OKX Onchain OS recorded 35 mentions of SOL in one hour at 21:00 on August 28, including 34 x mentions and 1 news report; The total 24-hour volume was 963 times. The latest hour is 0.87 times the long-term window hourly average, which is about 13% lower than the 24-hour average, which can be considered a "slowdown." This speed describes new discussions and is not necessarily related to market fluctuations. The text tone is 89% bullish, 0% bearish, and neutral about 11%, currently indicating "bullish clearly dominant." 24-hour bullish 63%, bearish 7%; If there is a gap between the two windows, it should first be understood as a change in discussion structure, rather than directly deriving price targets. I would draw these two lines separately. If the tone is more intense but mentions are slower, it means the current discussion is more positive, but new attention hasn't accelerated; If mentions increase and are bearish with an advantage, it may be that risk or faulty news is attracting people. Even if the buzz and tone are in the same direction, it still cannot be directly equated with genuine buying. Source is another limitation. Currently, SOL is "almost entirely driven by X." Social channels respond fastest, and the same topic can be retweeted; The more concentrated the source, the more it needs confirmation from the next window. An increase in news mentions does not automatically equal the event's fact; the original announcement remains the final verification standard. 2$BTC just lost $78,000.
That is the line a lot of people said would not break if the ETF bid was real. It broke anyway. From above $81,000 this morning to under $78k after the speech. About $100 million in longs got wiped in four hours. That is not a “healthy wick.” That is the market taking the people who bought the $80k hold narrative and forcing them out.
This was always the risk today.
$BTC spent the whole session hanging around $80,000 like the decision had already been made. $ETH kept losing $2,500 and people still called it a base. Options expired this morning. Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole. The first reaction was never going to be polite. When the chair talks and the range is that tight, leverage dies first.
$100M in four hours is the receipt.
Those were not long-term holders. Those were positions that needed $80k to stay $80k. Once price slipped through $79k, the cascade does the rest. Stops trip. Margin calls hit. The same level that looked like support becomes fuel on the way down. That is why it felt sudden. It was not sudden. It was crowded.
Does this kill the bigger picture? Not by itself.
ETF flows were still green into this. Weekly inflows were still heavy. A flush under $78k can be the market cleaning the late longs after a run from the $60s. It can also be the first real break of the range that $80k was supposed to defend. Those are two different trades, and the next $1,000 decides which one it is.
Hold and bounce from here, and this was the shakeout people said they wanted.
Lose $76,000, and the “institutions never left” story has to survive a deeper test.
$ETH will not look brave if BTC stays under $78k. The $2,500 argument is over for the session if Bitcoin is busy liquidating. Alts that were “rotating” an hour ago become the exit.
The frustrating part is how obvious it looks now. Above $81k felt like confirmation. Under $78k feels like betrayal. It was the same day. Same speech. Same crowded $80k level. The only thing that changed is who was leveraged the wrong way.
This is why you don’t marry a round number on a Fed day. $SKHY received a $1 billion subsidy and is investing $4 billion in building an HBM packaging and testing plant in the U.S. The current trading desk conflict centers on the squeeze of short-term returns caused by the $4 billion heavy capital expenditure versus the premium from supply chain localization.
The primary market driver is the pace of capital occupation and government subsidy realization, while the secondary driver is the operational cost pressure from the division of labor between the U.S. and Asia. The $1 billion subsidy can offset 25% of the initial plant construction investment, but the remaining $3 billion capital expenditure will significantly extend the capital recovery cycle.
Heavy asset pressure on free cash flow will reduce the duration tolerance of long positions. High beta risk appetite funds are far more sensitive to the engineering construction cycle than to capacity expectations. If the multinational supply chain of Korean wafers shipped to the U.S. incurs additional friction costs, it will push up inflation expectations and erode gross margins.
The upside scenario requires the $1 billion subsidy to be delivered without delay and that incremental HBM orders from North American customers cover the premium costs. Under these conditions, the trading side will reprice the compliance premium of its North American supply chain, triggering a shift in positions toward long-term allocation buyers.
Failure signals for the upside logic include construction cost overruns at the Indiana plant exceeding 15%, or subsidy disbursement progress lagging behind capital expenditure pace, causing net cash flow to fall below the critical point.
The downside scenario is triggered by a slowdown in computing terminal demand growth leading to a reduction in HBM purchase prices, while the $3 billion self-raised capital occupation drags down the company's quarterly profit margin. At this point, speculative long positions will accelerate withdrawal, suppressing the asset valuation midpoint.
Failure signals for the downside scenario include major North American AI chip manufacturers signing long-term HBM price and volume guaranteed exclusive supply agreements, fundamentally absorbing the performance ballast risk brought by heavy capital expenditure.
In the next 7 days, key observations will focus on the disclosure of $SKHY's capital expenditure budget allocation details and the sensitivity measurement of the discount rate for multinational heavy asset expansion to interest rate changes.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键🚀 Elon just threw a $3.5 TRILLION number on the table… and it could completely change how we value $SPCX.
I haven’t talked about $SPCX in a long time because, honestly, my position is pretty small. But today’s Elon Musk news made me remember I’m still holding it.
Musk’s latest outlook puts $SPCX’s potential annual revenue at around $3.5 trillion, with the most optimistic timeline pointing to 2033.
#DailyOrbit Wash's speech "overcorrected"
Tonight, Wash spoke at the global central bank annual meeting. Overall performance was acceptable, but there was a clear split between the two parts of the speech. The full text of the speech is attached.
The first half was a "personal reform vision"—AI faction + working group + no guidance, to which the market responded with a decline.
The second half was "what Wall Street wanted to hear"—maintaining the PCE target framework + dissatisfaction with inflation progress + insufficient financial tightening, preserving the Fed's independence, and the market began to rise.
The market's movement was volatile: the first part repeated old themes causing a drop, the second part emphasized independence + Citi's genuine interpretation, and the market recovered.
However, afterward, the market began to "overcorrect," worrying that Wash would really raise rates, with the probability of a September hike rising to 60%, causing broad declines in US stocks, bonds, and gold.
The question here is, which is the "real Wash"—the "Trump follower" at the congressional hearing, or today's "inflation fighter"?
This determines whether there will truly be a rate hike or just a false alarm.
I believe the market is currently overreacting, consistent with my previous prediction of the "last drop," which might create a golden pit, but there's no rush to act yet. The persistence and strength of this drop should not be underestimated.
Especially with the 10-year US Treasury yield returning to 4.7%, the risk is high. Fortunately, we have already reduced positions in tech stocks and gold, so we are very comfortable now, just waiting for the drop.
For US stocks, first watch if the Nasdaq 46000 support level breaks; if it breaks, continue to wait and enter only after seeing a bottoming pattern.
The same goes for gold: after tonight's sharp drop, if 4500 breaks, continue to wait; there is support at 4400 below, wait for a bottoming pattern.
Tomorrow, I will provide a more detailed analysis of the September macro outlook. If interested in tonight's Wash speech, please see the attached full text.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks. $ETH is more suppressed in the short term than Bitcoin due to the "hawkish" tone of Waller's speech, but there is a unique strategic point in the mid-to-long-term logic for Ethereum.
The specific impacts can be viewed in three layers:
· Heavier short-term selling pressure (leverage clearing): Ethereum's on-chain staking and DeFi lending are more sensitive to interest rates.
#WalshPolicyFramework $BTC Is this BTC drop a signal for retail investors to jump in?
Core conclusion: This minor pullback of about 1% is not a clear "buy-in signal"; it is more of a normal profit-taking after a policy-driven rally, representing a consolidation phase in an uptrend rather than a trend reversal bottoming opportunity.
1. Understanding the nature of this drop
BTC has retreated from the $80,000 level to around $79,000, with a pullback just over 1%, which is typical of a cooling-off in sentiment and short-term profit-taking after positive news, not a fundamental reversal causing a downtrend.
The core logic supporting this market is that the US crypto-friendly policy direction remains unchanged; the market has shifted from "overheating policy expectations" to a "waiting for implementation verification" vacuum period. Funds have temporarily flowed out of mainstream coins and moved into small-cap themes like EDEN and LIGHT for clustered speculation. The market structure is differentiated, not a systemic bear market.
Technically, the $78,000–$79,000 range is currently recognized as a key short-term support zone. Holding this level means strong consolidation; breaking below it could trigger a deeper correction.
2. Why it is not recommended to treat this as a "retail buy-in signal"
1. The price is still at historical highs, not a "low-price chip"
The current price remains in the historical high range around $79,000. The so-called "drop" is just a slight fluctuation at a high level, not a bottom price after a deep correction. Entering now essentially means buying into a pullback at a high level, with an unfavorable risk-reward ratio. If subsequent policies disappoint, investors risk being trapped at a temporary peak.
2. Positive news has been priced in early, with risk of profit-taking ahead
The policy benefits from the White House crypto meeting have already been largely priced in during the rise from $60,000 to $80,000. If key positives like the "CLARITY Act" vote or Bitcoin strategic reserves progress slowly or fall short of expectations, further pullbacks due to "positive news turning negative" are likely.
3. The illusion of "being able to buy in" is often a trap in early pullbacks
True quality entry points usually appear when market sentiment is fearful and most people dare not bottom-fish. Currently, the slight drop has not fully cooled bullish sentiment; retail investors generally feel "it’s a buy when it dips," but the true phase bottom has likely not arrived.
3. Real signals worth watching for buy-in
For relatively safer entry timing, focus on three dimensions:
- Technical: Price falls to the core support zone of $75,000–$77,000, showing signs of volume contraction, stabilization, and rebound rather than blind bottom-fishing during a downtrend.
- Fundamentals: Substantive progress in policies such as the Senate vote on the "CLARITY Act" and Bitcoin strategic reserves, providing new fundamental catalysts.
- Capital flow: Renewed sustained net inflows into spot ETFs and clear institutional wallet accumulation data, rather than retail-driven emotional rebounds.
Operational reference (for reference only, not investment advice)
- Short-term traders: It is not recommended to rush in during this minor pullback; better to wait and watch for clear stabilization signals.
- Medium to long-term investors: If optimistic about the long-term logic of US crypto policies, consider gradually building positions through dollar-cost averaging without chasing the "lowest point," but avoid going all-in at once on $ETH $SOL #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 In this kind of position, with this kind of pattern, I would never take the last bite of the fish tail! $ETH #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ The boot hanging in the air
Waller revealed a clear hawkish bottom line — no concession on the 2% inflation floor, interest rates remain far from restrictive, and forward guidance is completely scrapped.
After a brief hesitation, the market finally understood the weight of this tough talk. Bitcoin and Ethereum led the way down, a large bearish candle broke through short-term support, long positions were liquidated en masse, and the futures market was awash with blood. Gold simultaneously plunged, short-term bond yields surged, and the probability of a September rate hike shot up from 36% to 56%.
But he deliberately left a loophole. No commitment to a September rate hike, only data-dependent. This left the market divided — those selling off, those bottom-fishing, and those oscillating back and forth, none willing to bet all their chips.
This is exactly the effect Waller wanted. He no longer makes decisions for the market but lets the market guess and play the game itself. The knife is raised but hangs in midair. More tormenting than the rate hike itself is not knowing when it will fall.
From now on, there is an uncertain distance between the market and the Fed. This is the real tightening — making everyone watch every piece of data with reverence.
$BTC $ETH
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC Wash's hawkish remarks have finally triggered a major crash. I mentioned a couple of days ago that the recent sideways movement seemed more like waiting for some kind of news, and now that has been confirmed. The previous US Treasury reverse repo operations appeared beneficial but were actually just a drop in the bucket and couldn't solve the fundamental problem. Today's data all point to the issue not only remaining unresolved but the recent liquidity influx might actually cause the market to stay subdued for longer.
The expectation of rate hikes still hangs like a sword over our heads, ready to fall at any moment. If inflation doesn't come down and oil prices keep rising, that sword could fall at any time.Even though it's digital currency, people's attitudes toward it vary greatly across different parts of the globe. Some regions treat it as a major asset allocated by institutions; Some use it for ordinary people to fight inflation or conduct cross-border remittances; Some countries strictly restrict entry into the financial system. Recognition does not depend entirely on technological quality; it is more determined by local economic conditions, inflationary pressures, foreign exchange controls, regulatory policies, and demographics. Some places are institution-led, others are spontaneously used by ordinary people. Understanding this regional differentiation is essential to grasp the true landscape of the global crypto market. North America: Institution-led, from grassroots speculation to formal assets Represented by the US and Canada, North America is the global hub for institutional funding. Retail investor participation may not be the highest globally, but institutional recognition ranks first globally. After the approval of the Bitcoin $BTC spot ETF, pension funds, family offices, and large asset managers all entered the market, treating BTC as an alternative allocation asset rather than just a niche speculative product. Ordinary investors mostly participate indirectly through funds and ETFs, with retail investors directly speculating on cryptocurrencies making up a limited proportion. Regulation is in a state of ongoing competition, lacking a complete unified legislation. Different states have varying measures, accepting compliant institutional products while cracking down on fraud and money laundering projects. Core driving forces: asset allocation and institutional investment. Ordinary people treat BTC more as a high-risk investment rather than a daily payment tool. Europe: Rules First, Pursuing Balance of Innovation and Risk After the EU's MiCA unified regulatory regulation was implemented, Europe has a unified systemIn essence, trading stocks and crypto means that rises are for better falls, and falls are for better rises.
Interest rate hikes won't cause continuous declines, and rate cuts won't cause continuous rises.
You can compare the trend during the rate hike cycle from 2022.3.19 to 2023.7.26.
This time the rate hike will be shorter; in fact, after the hike on September 16 this year, it's very likely that the Fed will hold steady, then start cutting rates next year. Actually, monetary policy is gradually losing effectiveness, and now the Fed is just struggling.
If the market ultimately confirms only one hike, the trading structure is likely to be: first a sell-off during the formation of rate hike expectations → continued volatility after the FOMC announcement → once it's confirmed that hikes won't continue, risk assets will price in the next round of rate cuts in advance.Today's trading review:
Around 8 o'clock, $BTC showed a relatively clear bearish signal with a well-set stop loss, so I opened a small short position. I held it until the 10 o'clock Wash speech period, and the price smoothly hit the take profit.
After the short position took profit, the market showed some strength. BTC swept below yesterday's low during the consolidation but quickly recovered, and $ETH touched the weekly open and also quickly bounced back. At that time, I considered this a somewhat bullish price action, so I opened a long position on the pullback.
The problem with this long position was obvious: although there was support below, my entry point was already very close to the resistance zone drawn above, leaving limited room for upside. I did not recheck the resistance and risk-reward ratio before opening the position, and as a result, the price did not break through but instead quickly dropped at the end of the 4-hour candle, ultimately hitting the stop loss.
This drop caused a large bearish candle on the 4-hour chart, and currently, there is no clear sign of a bottom. Next, the focus is on the previously mentioned POC near 77,200. If the price sweeps through this area but quickly recovers and finds support, the market may continue to consolidate. However, today's daily engulfing candle is confirmed, and I tend to believe that a daily-level pullback may have already started. $BTC Can't understand the market, and you still can't understand Chinese characters?Because Wash's hawkish speech this time is a medium-to-long-term negative factor, there is no rush for an immediate short-term decline. This is not a violent deleveraging sell-off like when the storage trio led by SK Hynix maxed out leverage and overdrew funds in a very short time, but rather a gradual tightening of funds like boiling a frog in warm water.
Moreover, the market was previously most worried about fiscal discipline being broken and long-term interest rates getting out of control. After Wash hinted at a rate hike in September, the market actually felt reassured, which is the reason for some small gains in certain stocks.
Just now, the different interest rate performances of the 2/10/30-year US Treasury bonds precisely prove that the current policy mix is Wash lifting the short end and Bassett suppressing the long end. So for stocks, today is not purely a rate hike negative, but a short-end negative + long-end positive + earnings fundamentals positive.
In terms of operations, the same advice: orderly withdrawal from risk assets, the leading pattern is forming, don’t wait until the drop is over to chase the short. After the 9.16 FOMC meeting rate hike, once the negative factors are fully priced in, it will be time to go long (of course, there is also a golden pit to enter before that).
PS: The probability of a September rate hike has just increased by 2 points again.⚠️ This wave of sell-off is most likely related to the "hawkish repricing" following Warsh's speech, but it should not be simply understood as a direct dump from a single statement.
After the speech, the market quickly raised the probability of a September rate hike from about 35% to nearly 50%. The 2-year US Treasury yield rose by about 9.5 basis points at one point, and the US dollar index also increased by about 0.4%. This indicates that funds are indeed repricing the risk of "higher rates staying longer."
The crypto market then clearly accelerated its decline: $BTC has dropped to about 77,600, down 3.58% in 24 hours, approaching the intraday low; $ETH also returned to around 2439, down 3.46% in 24 hours. Compared to the mild reaction just after the speech ended, this round looks more like macro bearish news confirmed by the bond and dollar markets, starting to transmit to high Beta assets.
📉 So the key point is not "what Warsh said," but that the market is really starting to price in higher rate hikes. In the short term, if BTC continues to break below around 77,500, it is likely to trigger more deleveraging; ETH needs to see if support can form near 2400. This wave no longer looks like a normal spike but more like a macro expectation-driven risk release.
$SOL
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #星球日报 #OKX星球话题来啦 XPL unlocks 297 million tokens in a single day; the inflation stress test for low-circulation tokens is just beginning
Plasma, a Layer1 public chain focused on stablecoin payments, today saw the unlocking of 297 million XPL tokens, with a nominal value of about $27 million.
The figure of $27 million alone may not seem impressive, but when combined with its token economic model, this unlocking sends a strong warning signal to holders in the secondary market.
Currently, the total circulating supply of XPL is about 2.78 billion tokens, while the total token supply reaches 10 billion. In other words, over 72% of the tokens across the network remain locked in a frozen state, which is a very typical "low circulation, high FDV" structure.
Today's unlocking of 297 million tokens for ecosystem and growth directly inflates the existing circulating supply by more than 10%. In the market environment at the end of August, where spot buy-side depth is generally thin, if the new tokens flow into exchanges, it will immediately create selling pressure testing the short-term support.
But this is not the most severe test yet.
The real Damocles sword hanging over XPL is the super cliff-like unlocking on the first anniversary of the mainnet launch on September 25. At that time, 1.67 billion tokens will be unlocked at once, marking the first large-scale release of early investment institutions' and core team shares.
#DailyOrbit ZEC at Eight Hundred Dollars: The Crossroads of Greed and Fear
Zcash stands above eight hundred dollars; eight days ago, it was still under five hundred. The Grayscale ETF has forcefully pulled a privacy coin that nearly went to zero due to a fatal vulnerability all the way to the moon.
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" — on the day the ETF was listed, ZEC fell instead of rising. On-chain selling pressure is five times the buying volume, funding rates have dropped below zero, and shorts are sharpening their knives. Everyone is telling the same story: it’s not worth eight hundred, it should fall.
But the crypto world never talks about valuation. Grayscale’s first-year management fees are fully returned to the ecosystem, the NU7 upgrade is imminent, and 30% of the circulating supply is locked in privacy pools — these are not supports, but springs. When shorts become overcrowded to the extreme, any straw can trigger a short squeeze.
Shorting ZEC is a bet on rationality returning; but rationality is exactly the scarcest thing in crypto. Eight hundred dollars may be overvalued, but an overvalued market can become even more overvalued until the most stubborn shorts cover before dawn. This coin has already proven it punishes unbelievers, rising from three hundred to eight hundred. The question now is: how much margin are you willing to put up for the words "not worth it"?
$ZEC $BTC This round of decline is because Warsh reiterated the "firm fixation" on the 2% inflation target during his Jackson Hole debut, stating that the summer inflation improvement does not indicate a trend change, and proactively canceled forward guidance, refusing to rule out further tightening.
As a result, the market raised the probability of a September rate hike, and the two-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.29%, with the previous buying logic betting on "Fed easing" being withdrawn.
Bitcoin fell below 80,000 from above 81,000, reporting $77,700, and the entire crypto market evaporated over $100 billion, with leveraged liquidations exceeding $600 million. Simply put: Warsh did not announce a rate hike, but he stopped the market from betting on a rate cut — this hit Bitcoin, which is priced based on liquidity and lacks cash flow anchors, the hardest, so it fell much more than the US stock market.
$ETH $SOL
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ At the central bank annual meeting speech, the market was debating whether it was hawkish or not. I think that's not the main point.
The key point is that the roadmap has been removed. In the past, traders relied on forward guidance to discount the next step in advance, but now that path is blocked. The direction hasn't changed, but the marginal impact at the moment each CPI and employment data is released is amplified.
The market is reacting but not panicking: BTC perpetual at 77,914, down 3.10% in 24 hours; ETH at 2,448, with a similar decline. The funding rate is 0.0063%, almost neutral; the drop is in valuation, not leverage, and the longs haven't been liquidated.
Under this structure, what needs adjustment is leverage multiple, not direction. Once the volatility center shifts upward, with the same position size, the liquidation distance is shorter than last week. The open interest of 108,000 BTC is still on the books, which is something to watch in the coming days.Brothers, if you really expect a big bull to come, listen to me: hold tightly to large positions in BTC and ETH, that is your ultimate insurance. 🛡️
As for pocket money, only then should you take risks with high-leverage altcoins like CORE, ASTER, BEAT. But remember, if you have 1000 dollars, only use 200 dollars to play, and keep 800 dollars as margin.BTCÐ 1-Hour Candlestick Chart: Rapid Drop After Rally Joint Analysis
Two 1-hour candlesticks are highly synchronized:
BTC surged to 81520 then quickly plunged to a low of 77888; ETH surged to 2535 then quickly dropped to 2444. Both closed with long upper shadow large bearish candles, indicating heavy selling pressure at the top, failed bullish attack, and immediate sell-off after the rally.
I. Candlestick Pattern Interpretation
BTC (Big Coin)
1. Long upper shadow: Tested strong resistance above 81500, buying briefly pushed price up, but heavy selling pressure above forced a sharp drop, a false breakout pattern.
Current price 78253, short-term support at 78130-77888; resistance at 79044, 80000.
2. High volume large bearish candle: 24-hour volume expanded, the pullback is real selling pressure, not a minor wick.
ETH (Second Coin)
1. Rejected at 2535 after rally, also a long upper shadow bearish candle, heavy resistance at 2520-2535.
Current price 2463, first support 2458-2444, critical lifeline 2240; resistance 2520.
2. ETH has greater volatility elasticity than BTC, with sharper rallies and deeper pullbacks.
II. Four Core Reasons for Rapid Drop After Rally
1. Jackson Hole speech mixed signals (trigger)
Early speech excerpts were interpreted as dovish, funds entered to push price up, hitting this round's high; full text released, market reinterpreted: stubborn inflation, rate hikes retained, high rates maintained longer. US Treasury yields rebounded quickly, risk asset valuations pressured, bulls collectively retreated.
2. Friday options expiry, negative Gamma causing amplified stampede (amplifier)
CME BTC and ETH weekly options expired. Price hit resistance, market makers passively sold to suppress the market; once price turned down, market makers continued selling to hedge, triggering massive long perpetual contract stop-loss liquidations. Stop-loss cascade created a negative feedback loop causing "rapid drop".
3. Multiple selling pressures released simultaneously
① Long-dormant holders took profits during rally;
② Wall Street institutions reduced weekend positions on Friday, taking profits and lowering exposure to avoid weekend geopolitical and regulatory black swans.
4. Liquidity timing disadvantage
US stock market near close, institutional traders exit; weekend approaching, banking fiat channels close, large fiat funds cannot enter to bottom fish. Small funds can push price up, but lack of buyers on the way down exacerbates the drop.
III. Market Strength Comparison
ETH volatility is clearly higher than BTC. Under the same news shock, ETH rallies and retraces more sharply, a high-beta asset. During market rebounds, ETH gains more; during corrections, ETH losses and contract liquidations are more severe, altcoins follow ETH with amplified volatility.
IV. Two Subsequent Scenario Projections
Scenario 1: Consolidation and Washout (Baseline)
BTC holds 77880-77500, ETH holds 2440.
Signal: Buying support appears after drop, gradually reclaiming short-term resistance; ETF inflows continue; no large whale deposits to exchanges.
Market: Returns to large range consolidation, BTC 74800-80000, ETH 2240-2520, continuously cleaning leveraged longs.
Scenario 2: Intermediate Correction Begins (Risk)
• BTC hourly chart breaks below 77500, further testing lifeline 74800;
• ETH breaks 2440, next key support target 2240.
Confirmation: Weak rebound, lower highs; ETF inflows shrink or turn outflows; on-chain dormant wallets keep depositing to exchanges. Once daily close breaks lifeline, intermediate correction confirmed.
V. Key Levels Summary
BTC
Short-term resistance: 79044, 80000; first support: 77888; lifeline support: 74800
ETH
Short-term resistance: 2520; first support: 2444; lifeline support: 2240
Both BTC and ETH show synchronized long upper shadow large bearish candles, indicating huge resistance above, this round's upward attack failed. The rapid drop is a triple resonance of Jackson Hole mixed signals + options negative Gamma stampede + weekend risk reduction.
Currently, it's only a short-term setback for bulls, no direct confirmation of a major trend reversal; the core to watch is whether the first support holds and if ETF spot funds continue flowing in.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 In fact, the essence of stock and crypto trading is that the rise is for a better fall, and the fall is for a better rise.
Interest rate hikes won't keep falling forever, and rate cuts won't keep rising forever either.
You can compare the trend during the rate hike cycle from 2022.3.19 to 2023.7.26.
This rate hike cycle will be shorter; in fact, after the hike on September 16 this year, it is very likely that the Fed will hold steady, then start cutting rates next year. Actually, monetary policy has gradually started to lose effectiveness, and now the Fed is just struggling.
If the market ultimately confirms only one rate hike, then the trading structure is likely to be: first a sell-off during the formation of rate hike expectations → continued volatility after the FOMC announcement → once it is confirmed that hikes will not continue, risk assets will trade ahead of the next round of rate cuts. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ OKB rises more fiercely than ETH and resists falling more than BTC. Why is it so strong?
A very obvious phenomenon in the market recently is that OKB is moving with great confidence. It rises more sharply than ETH and its pullbacks are more resilient than BTC's. This is not a coincidence; it's due to the chip structure and narrative logic at play.
This round of OKB's movement is not a violent pump but a steady upward trend accompanied by sufficient turnover. This is much healthier than BTC's contract leverage-driven artificial push—chips are dispersed through turnover rather than concentrated in profit-taking hands waiting to dump.
OKB is not purely a BTC Beta asset; it has its own ecological logic. XLayer, as OKEx's self-built Layer 2 public chain, is gradually forming a closed loop of "trading flow + on-chain applications + token utility." As long as XLayer continues to advance, OKB has a narrative support independent of BTC—which is also why it is more resistant to decline during market fluctuations.
BTC has once again broken through 80,000, and market risk appetite has clearly rebounded. In this environment, platform tokens, as "income-generating assets," naturally attract capital more easily than pure narrative tokens.
Behind OKB's strength is the pricing of OKEx's ecosystem long-term value. But breaking through the 120 level in one go requires new catalysts. Without new burns or a major XLayer upgrade, this level may need repeated testing.
Do you think OKB can break through 120 directly, or does it need to pull back to build momentum before rising again?
$OKB BTC 1-Hour Candlestick Chart Rapid Surge and Sharp Decline Market Analysis
From the 1-hour candlestick: the highest surge reached 81520, then quickly plunged, the lowest dipped to 77888, current price 78253, forming a long upper shadow large bearish candlestick, a typical failed surge, bulls' attack failed. Analysis combined with Jackson Hole speech + Friday options expiration background.
I. Candlestick Pattern Signals
1. Long upper shadow: Bulls attempted to attack the 81500 resistance zone, funds briefly pushed the price up, but heavy selling pressure above caused a large amount of sell orders to push the price back to the original level. The surge to 81520 did not hold, a false breakout.
2. Large bearish candlestick body, quickly giving back most of the gains, short-term bullish momentum exhausted.
Short-term support: marked at 78130 in the chart, strong support zone below 77880‑77500; short-term resistance at 79044, then psychological barrier at 80000.
3. 24-hour volume 98,800 BTC, volume increased during the decline, indicating this drop is not a small fund spike but real selling pressure release.
II. Why the rapid decline after the surge? Four driving factors
1. News: Jackson Hole mixed speech caused rapid bull-bear reversal
• When the speech excerpt was released, the market initially interpreted it as dovish, funds entered pushing BTC to 81520 high;
• After reading the full text, the market repriced: inflation risks remain, rate hikes possible, high rates to last longer. US Treasury yields rose in a V-shape, risk asset valuations pressured, bulls quickly retreated.
2. Options Gamma market maker hedging amplifies the crash (Friday key)
Coinciding with CME weekly options expiration, in negative Gamma zone.
Price surged to heavy options resistance zone, market makers passively sold spot to suppress the rise; when price turned down, market makers continued selling to hedge, accelerating the price drop, triggering many long perpetual contract stop-loss liquidations, stop-loss orders further trampled, creating a "sell more as price falls" negative feedback loop, causing the rapid plunge.
3. Concentrated spot selling pressure release
1. Ancient dormant wallet chips cashed out at highs, surge was a good window to sell;
2. Institutions reduced weekend risk exposure on Friday, taking profits and reducing positions on the surge to avoid weekend geopolitical and regulatory black swans;
4. Time liquidity factors
Approaching US stock market close, Wall Street traders gradually exit, market liquidity thins. When rising, buy orders easily push price up; when falling, fewer buyers to support, small sell orders cause large drops. Weekend approaching, fiat settlement channels close, large funds cannot enter to bottom fish, exacerbating the plunge.
III. ETH synchronous linkage logic (Altcoins)
ETH will replicate BTC trend: surge testing 2500‑2550 resistance then quickly retreat.
ETH options positions are also heavy, altcoins (SOL/ZEC) volatility will be greater, correction drops larger than BTC.
IV. Two subsequent scenario simulations (combined with this long upper shadow candlestick)
Scenario 1: Consolidation washout (base case)
Hold 77500‑77880 zone, plunge is just event + derivatives driven correction.
Signal: buy orders appear after decline, reclaim above 79000; ETF net inflows continue; no mass ancient wallet transfers to exchanges on-chain.
Market: back to 74800‑80000 large box consolidation, repeated grinding, continuing to clean leveraged longs.
Scenario 2: Weakening triggers deeper correction (risk case)
Hourly chart breaks below 77500 effectively and continues down, next target 74800 core lifeline.
Confirmation conditions:
1. Weak rebound after this large bearish candle, lower highs;
2. ETF inflows rapidly shrink or turn outflows;
3. Dormant whale addresses continuously deposit to exchanges.
Once 74800 daily level breaks, medium-term correction officially begins.
V. Key observation levels
• Short-term resistance: 79044, 80000, rebound unlikely to directly reclaim above 81500 in one go;
• First support: 77880‑78130 (chart low);
• Critical support: 74800, the most important level distinguishing consolidation from trend weakening.
This long upper shadow large bearish candlestick indicates huge selling pressure above 81500, this round of bull attack failed. The rapid decline is due to: Jackson Hole mixed statements + options expiration negative Gamma liquidation + weekend risk reduction profit-taking triple resonance.
Currently, it is only a short-term setback for bulls, not a confirmed major trend reversal. The key is whether supports at 77880 and 74800 hold, and whether ETF spot funds continue to flow in.
#BTC rapid surge and pullback, options expiration amplifies key level battle Today, BTC was fluctuating between 78,000 and 80,300. In the morning, it was at 79,601, and by evening it was 79,132. During trading, it once dropped to just above 78,000. Finishing the day is basically standing still. ETH fluctuated between 2,459 and 2,510, but staying still doesn't mean nothing happened. Sometimes two people sit on the same sofa and don't argue all night. In fact, both have already done their math in their minds. To get to the point, half of the good is that spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows for the ninth consecutive day, with $242 million in a single day on August 27 Cumulative total of about 2.8 billion, the longest streak since April. In August, monthly inflows exceeded 3 billion, net assets surpassed 99 billion. IBIT remains the main fund-attracting force. Whale addresses with over 1,000 on-chain tokens have added more than 120,000 in the past four weeks. Regarding the other half, XRP has surged sharply in the past two days, 19% in one week. Whales withdrew 231 million from Binance, the largest single outflow in six months. At the same time, XRP's ETF net inflow was 28 million, the highest single-day inflow since Q1. These two figures are listed together The picture is very clear: ETFs are taking over, whales are turning, and in the middle stand a bunch of people chasing after candlesticks. It's a bit like a matchmaking market. You think the other party's terms are ridiculously good, and they even invited you three times. You feel proud, but later you realize they are eager to sell. It's not that this market rally is fake. The trend is indeed intact. The ETF money is real money. The SEC's new custody rules have even been submitted to the White House for review. The fact that regulators are paving the way is more real than any single trading shout. But...ETF has continuous net inflows, but the nature of the two types of funds is completely different, so don't be misled by surface data BTC and ETH spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with the total weekly inflow hitting a nearly 10-month high. BlackRock is the main buyer. However, there is a structural difference that is easy to overlook: In BTC-ETF, a large portion comes from long-term allocation funds such as pension funds and endowment funds, which hold long-termAfter BTC broke through 81,000, it fell back below 78,000, then fluctuated repeatedly: leverage liquidations and profit-taking dominated, with the weekend still oscillating between 78k-81k.
On August 25, BTC once surpassed $81,000 (peak around 81,200-81,500), ending about 10 weeks of consolidation and rebounding nearly 30% from the range's low point. It then quickly retreated, hitting a low near 77,600-77,870 on August 26, a drop of about 4%, briefly falling below 78,000.
It then rebounded, recovering above 80,000 on August 27, but fell again on August 28, with intraday lows touching the 78,300-78,500 range. Currently, it fluctuates between 78,000-80,500. Overall, it maintains a high-level oscillation pattern after the breakout.
Main reasons (as of today's data):
1. Derivatives leverage reset is core. After the breakout, long leverage quickly accumulated, followed by large-scale long liquidations (around $270 million, accounting for most of total liquidations). Futures open interest fell about 4.5% from the peak. This is a typical "post-breakout leverage retracement," not a single macro black swan event.
2. Profit-taking + overhead supply wall. Rapid rise from over 60,000 to above 80,000 caused obvious short-term overbought conditions. The 81,000-83,000 range is a resistance zone overlapping long-term holder cost areas, self-custodied chips, options hedging, and previous liquidation concentration, where selling pressure is concentrated.
3. No major fundamental negative factors. The pullback lacks confirmed macro or regulatory catalysts; it is more a self-correction of trading structure. Spot ETFs still see continuous inflows, institutional demand remains, but price volatility is amplified by leverage.
Current key levels (August 28):
Around 78,000 is a short-term battleground between bulls and bears, with buyers previously responding. If it can hold above and break through 81,000 again, an upward continuation is likely; if it falls below 78,000 and loses 77,500 support, the next target is 76,500-77,000. Weekend liquidity is thin, so oscillation between 78k-81k is expected to continue.
Overall, this is a healthy clearing and resistance test after a rapid rise; the trend has not clearly reversed yet. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether ETF net inflows can continue to absorb overhead selling pressure and whether it can effectively hold above 81k.
(Data compiled from public market and liquidation reports; prices fluctuate in real time, for reference only, not investment advice.)$BTC has reached its current position, and the most popular market narrative is "first a dip, then a rise." The logic is sound, and the consensus is too, but the problem lies precisely in the consensus itself. Everyone expects a pullback, so it might not happen at all.
From a capital structure perspective, bullish factors still dominate. The spot ETF has maintained positive inflows for nine consecutive days, accumulating over $2.8 billion in August alone, setting a monthly record for the year. This is not retail buying, but systematic allocation by institutions; this money won't stop flowing in just because of a single bearish candle. High-cost capital usually corresponds to strong holding confidence, and short-term volatility is unlikely to shake these chips loose.
The geographic distribution of demand is also worth noting. Buyers in the compliant U.S. market are willing to pay a premium. This premium structure typically appears during institutional accumulation phases, not at market tops.
Profit-taking on-chain continues but at a noticeably slower pace. The seven-day moving average of net realized profit and loss has fallen from previous peaks but remains in positive territory. Early holders are selling, but not in a panic—this orderly turnover is actually a healthy process of chip dispersion, not a sign of trend reversal.
So the conclusion is simple: the market is experiencing high-level turnover, not forming a top. A pullback may occur, but the magnitude is likely limited. Instead of betting long or short around 80,000, it's better to wait for confirmation from right-side signals before entering. The direction hasn't changed; the rhythm needs to be waited on, but confidence should be maintained #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ What will be the next moves for mainstream currencies?
$BTC is once again approaching 80,000, with spot ETFs seeing net inflows of about $2.8 billion over eight consecutive days, and inflows in August exceeding $3 billion, indicating continued institutional support. The issue is that PCE remains somewhat hot, and the market is revisiting rate hike discussions, weakening the macro tailwind; if after breaking through it can still consolidate with reduced volume rather than falling back on increased volume, the structure can be considered healthy.
$ETH continues to outperform BTC this week, with funds spreading to high Beta assets. ETF net inflows and risk appetite jointly support the catch-up rally. However, after consecutive rebounds, chips are becoming crowded, so short-term observation should focus on whether volume contracts on pullbacks; if relative strength does not break, capital rotation may continue.
$SKHYNIX surged yesterday driven by Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report, with HBM demand and AI storage momentum continuing to strengthen; the company has recently accelerated buybacks and cancellations and expanded AI memory capacity, making the mid-term logic clear. However, historically, semiconductor rallies after Nvidia earnings do not always continue, so current focus should be on foreign capital support and high-level turnover.
$XAU gold has pulled back after reaching a three-month high, with hot PCE and hawkish Fed comments suppressing further gains; $OKB remains supported by fixed supply, X Layer, and Exchange OS, mainly digesting chips after a sharp rise; $QQQ is boosted by Nvidia's strong guidance, but US stock funds saw significant outflows this week. The AI theme is strong, but at the index level, macro interest rate disturbances still need to be guarded against.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Waller finished speaking, **more hawkish, tougher than market expectations**.
**Core points of the speech:**
- Inflation remains high, "If underlying inflation does not clearly and quickly approach the 2% target, we still have work to do" — this is the closest hint at a rate hike
- Officially announced "forward guidance is outdated," no more market soothing, you watch the data yourselves
- Said "overall financial conditions are hard to say are tight" — meaning current rates are not tight enough
- Did not mention crypto, stablecoins, or hint at cooperating with the Treasury to suppress long-term bond yields
- Exact words: "What I promise is discipline, not decisions"
**Market reaction:**
- BTC dropped from $81,000 to $78,700, currently around $79,000, down about 1.2%
- Gold down 1.2%, USD strengthened, US Treasury yields rose
- CME rate hike probability surged from 33% to 45.7%, probability of no hike in September is 58%
- BTC weekly still up about 2.3%
**Impact on you: strategy unchanged, but probability of a September pullback increased.**
1. **Continue waiting with ¥40,000 USDT** — Waller’s hawkish tone crushed September rate cut expectations, rate hike probability rose to 46%. If there really is a hike in September or data stays hot, the probability of BTC pulling back to $75,700 first batch is higher than before today. This is actually good; you are just about to buy in.
2. **Keep holding ETH long positions** — opened at $2,415, currently $2,495 still floating profit, stop loss at $2,300 not hit, no action needed.
3. **No chasing highs or shorting** — $79K is a stuck range, wait for September data and FOMC meeting for direction.
4. **The "good news fully priced in" mentioned in Shu Qin’s video is partially coming true**, but currently it’s just a drop from $81K to $79K, not a crash, just normal profit-taking + hawkish pricing.
Simply put: Waller didn’t give candy, he gave a whip. But the whip is hitting the "rate cut fantasy," not the bull market logic. BTC weekly is still up, ETF net inflows have continued for 9 days, institutions are still buying. If it really drops near $75K in September, that’s your opportunity.
Rest for tonight, I’ll keep watching.【Daily Crypto Highlights | Evening Report】August 28
No need to cover too much today, just a few key things really impacting the market.
1. Wash has still crashed the crypto market
Jackson Hole speech tonight was clearly hawkish, the core message: inflation won't come down, the Fed still has work to do.
The market quickly repriced the rate hike risk, short-term US Treasury yields rose, gold plunged. BTC initially held up well but eventually couldn't withstand, dropping from above $81,300 intraday to around $78,500.
Just said: keep the music playing, keep dancing.
Now: okay, we still have to respect the Fed.
2. The good news is, spot funds haven't fled yet
US BTC spot ETF saw a latest single-day net inflow of about $242 million, marking 9 consecutive trading days of net inflows; ETH ETF also had 9 consecutive days of net inflows, with the latest day about $226 million.
So it's quite interesting now:
On one hand, macro pressure is reapplying from above, on the other, ETF funds are still coming in.
No need to guess too far tonight, first watch if BTC can hold around $78K.
If it holds, today is more about emotional release from hawkish expectations; if it doesn't hold, the funds that pushed $80K earlier will start to feel the pain. $BTC $ETH $SOL has seen an accelerated implementation of supply-side deflation, but the failure to meet the extreme burn expectations has triggered a repricing of risk appetite. The SGP-0002 proposal passed with 67% approval, which will reduce issuance by about 18.9 million tokens over the next 6 years, but the additional burn proposal did not meet the threshold, and the expected daily burn increase to 7,500-9,000 tokens did not materialize. This weakens the extreme deflation narrative, and if short-term bullish momentum falters at the 114 resistance level, it may trigger a "sell the fact" position correction. If the price breaks through the 114 resistance level with volume and holds, then the short-term selling pressure transmission logic fails.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解⛔️ The delayed reaction is here!
🎙️ After Wash's speech landed
📈 The 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 10 basis points intraday, reaching 4.33%.
$BTC $ETH simultaneously dropped about 0.8%,
which is the decline you see starting from 23:30.
🔉 Key points first:
The 2-year yield is the core indicator used to trade Fed short-term rate expectations, more sensitive to rate hike or cut expectations than the 10-year yield.
2-year yield rising → short-term rate hike expectations heat up → USD strengthens.
Funds will temporarily avoid high-risk assets like Bitcoin,
making the market prone to pressure.
This is one of the reasons for the slight weakness in coin prices tonight.
For the short-term market going forward, watch two indicators:
✅ On one side, monitor the 2-year US Treasury yield trend.
✅ On the other side, track whether capital inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs continue.
💥 As long as ETF buying does not significantly retreat,
a pure pulse-like rise in yields
will only cause oscillating pullbacks
and is unlikely to change the mid-term pattern.
⚠️ Only if both deteriorate simultaneously should risk control levels be raised. Whether BTC and ETH will fall is a comprehensive analysis based on the latest situation
Jackson Hole's speech sent mixed signals, showing no outright hawkish stance or easing commitments; Combined with Friday's option expiration, the weekend approaching, intermittent cash-out of ancient sleeping wallets, and ongoing institutional ETF buying, the market is at a broad volatile crossroads, with a risk of pullback and decline, but it does not meet all the conditions for a sharp downturn for now.
1. Major Drivers of Decline (Downside Risk)
1. Federal Reserve Macro Level (Largest Risk Source)
Washh clearly acknowledged that inflation is sticky and retained options for further rate hikes. With the September policy meeting approaching, if nonfarm payroll and PCE data strengthen again, the market will further increase the probability of a rate hike, pushing US Treasury yields higher and directly suppressing BTC and ETH valuations. Even without rate hikes, the expectation that "high interest rates will persist longer" will continue to suppress risk assets.
2. Derivatives and time window disturbances
CME options expire on Friday, creating a negative gamma environment that makes it easy to push downwards; Institutions actively reduced weekend positions on Friday, with some profit-taking positions pushing higher to take profit. At the weekend, fiat bank channels closed, market liquidity is thin, allowing small funds to make sharp drops, leading to more fake breakouts over the weekend.
3. On-chain selling pressure persists
Years of dormant wallets continue to wake sporadically, recharging on exchanges during rebounds to realize floating gains; Every upward surge encounters selling of old chips, continuously draining bullish forces, suppressing breakouts, and making it easy to spike and pull back.
4. Technical threshold pressure
BTC 81,500-83,000 is strong resistance, while ETH2520-2,550 has strong resistance. Multiple tests fail to break through with increased volume, making it easy for the price to turn downward and test support.
2. The support force preventing deep plunge
1. Spot ETF Capital Buffer (the most important long base)
BlackRock and other BTC and ETH spot ETFs have seen net inflows for several consecutive days in the previous period, with institutional allocation funds still in the market. As long as the ETF does not turn into continuous net outflows, the probability of sustained sharp declines is limited, and pullbacks will attract buying support.
2. Changes in chip structure
Ancient whales sold in batches, institutions took over, and this was a slow rotation; It wasn't a collective frenzy of selling all at once; so far, there has been no large-scale collective on-chain signal distribution.
3. Marginal easing of external geopolitical tensions
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has eased, and the oil price risk premium has declined, indirectly reducing the tail risk of rising inflation and somewhat limiting the upside of U.S. Treasury yields.
3. Judge the downtrend level by dividing it into two scenarios
Scenario (1): Short-term pullback (high probability, internal decline in consolidation)
There will be no trend collapse; it is a downward shakeout within a consolidation.
• Trigger conditions: neutral speech, no unexpectedly hawkish stance; ETF maintaining net inflows; sleeping wallets only occasionally cashing out.
• Price performance: BTC pulls back to test the 74,800-76,000 support range, ETH pulls back to 2,240-2,280. Reaching support will lead to consolidation, maintaining a large range of oscillations.
• Knockoffs: The pullback was significantly larger than Bitcoin, leading to a round of liquidations in the future.
Scenario (2): Intermediate trend downward (requires multiple conditions to resonate, low probability)
The real trend is weakening and continuing downward.
Multiple signals must resonate simultaneously, not just a single intraday drop:
1) The ETF shifted from net inflow to consecutive days of net outflow;
2) On the daily chart, volume has broken below BTC74800 and ETH2240 support, closing below that support;
3) Large-scale continuous deposit of the Sleeping Ancient Wallet on exchanges;
4) Subsequent U.S. economic and inflation data exceeded expectations, prompting the market to reprice rate hikes.
Once all are met, it opens up even greater room for a pullback.
4. Stratification of the Board Impact
BTC、ETH
In the short term, repeated surges and pullbacks will occur, which is normal for range-bound fluctuations. 80,000 and 2,500 are psychological thresholds; losing them doesn't necessarily mean the trend is broken. The real life-or-death line is at 74,800 and 2,240. Holding this level still represents a consolidation shakeout; Only after effective breakdowns should you be alert to a mid-level correction.
Altcoins (SOL, ZEC, etc.)
Without ETFs buying directly, as long as Bitcoin pulls back, altcoins will fall much more than BTC or ETH; The low liquidity environment over the weekend carries higher risk of insertion.
5. Key Tracking and Observation Signals (Used to Judge Whether a Sharp Drop Is Likely to Occur)
1. Daily ETF fund flows: whether inflows have shifted from inflows to outflows;
2. US Treasury 2-year yield, macro liquidity anchor;
3. On-chain: Whether dormant addresses are continuously flooded into exchanges in large quantities;
4. Key support: BTC74800, ETH2240, see if the daily closing price breaks below the limit;
5. Distinction: The sharp drop triggered by low liquidity over the weekend cannot be considered a trend confirmation; the market after institutional funds return on Monday shall prevail.
Summary
In the short term, there will be pullbacks, surges, and pullbacks, with oscillating fluctuations not stopping; But right now, all the conditions for a direct trend decline are not yet met.
The market follows the pattern of "macro setting the overall direction, ETFs as buffers, and on-chain chips and options amplifying short-term volatility."
If it only pulls back to find support near 74,800 or 2,240, it is a consolidation and internal adjustment; Only when multiple negative factors resonate and break through core support will a mid-level downtrend begin. The truly decisive catalyst for the follow-up is the US nonfarm payroll data and the September Federal Reserve meeting.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔, can the policy framework be clarified?
#财报观察员: AI demand is spreading from hardware to software
#BTC冲高回落, options expiration is a major battle at the larger threshold This news is very important, and I believe there is another deeper underlying thread: the threshold for independently developing ASIC chips may rapidly decrease in the future. Currently, the signals are unclear, so it is appropriate to hold steady regarding this underlying thread, but I think it could be an important turning point in the next phase.
Correspondingly, there will be new pressure or new incremental markets for $MRVL and $AVGO, which must be continuously monitored. In this post, I will explain why.
1/ Why there will be pressure
Yesterday, I had dinner with a friend who works on $GOOG TPU, and they told me: making a chip requires coordination among many different teams.
Some are responsible for drawing circuit diagrams, that is RTL; some write compilers; some write the lowest-level operators; others build simulators, test performance, and continuously tune parameters.
OpenAI may have handed over a large part of this work directly to its own AI. This is also why Jalapeño can be produced so quickly.
For example, letting GPT help write chip design code, teaching GPT Jalapeño’s own ISA (the chip’s "native language"), and then directly using assembly to write the lowest-level programs for a fixed set of models.
OpenAI knows best what its models compute daily, where the slowdowns are, and where the power consumption is highest, so it is also best suited to tailor chips specifically for its own models.
2/ Why there will be a new market
Actually, there has been a call in recent years to specifically break Nvidia’s supply constraints by making ASICs for Transformer architecture inference.
AI can help you write schematics, write programs, and optimize, but it cannot produce wafers out of thin air, nor can it manufacture HBM, switch chips, and optical modules by itself.
Previously, only companies like Google, Apple, and Amazon could afford chip teams of hundreds or thousands of people. In the future, a company mastering cutting-edge coding models might complete work that used to require many engineers with a much smaller team.
As ASICs increase, the entire supply chain will continue to profit from design, implementation, manufacturing, packaging, storage, and interconnection.
3/ How will I act?
Currently, the signals are unclear, but I believe this could be an important turning point in the next phase Stablecoins can't save US debt, but why is Bitcoin still rising?
On August 19, Bessent announced doubling its long-term Treasury repurchase scale from $2 billion to over $4 billion. The market's reaction was: the 30-year yield still stands above 5.3%.
In the same week, Bitcoin surged from 60,000 to nearly 80,000, short positions liquidated from $1.6 billion to $4 billion, and spot ETF net inflows approached $2 billion.
These two events are two sides of the same coin. The Treasury is playing a distortion game, swapping long-term debt for short-term debt to save on interest. The market sees through this and votes with its feet by buying scarce assets. This money buys gold and also Bitcoin.
So can stablecoins save US debt?
Let's look at the numbers first. Stablecoins have a total market cap of about $300 billion, holding about $200 billion in Treasury bills, accounting for about 3% of the $6.5 trillion Treasury bill market. Compare this to government money market funds at $6.54 trillion and the entire MMF industry at $7.93 trillion. US debt is $40 trillion, an order of magnitude larger.
Moreover, the maturities are mismatched. The Treasury lacks buyers for long-term debt, but the GENIUS Act mandates stablecoins can only hold ultra-short-term assets, addressing a Treasury problem that isn't very severe. Foreign holdings of US debt have dropped from nearly 60% to 30%. Using $300 billion to fill a trillion-level gap doesn't add up mathematically.
The direction is correct though. The GENIUS Act signed in July 2025 essentially tells issuers: you can legally operate, but every penny in the vault must be my IOU. By August 2026, stablecoins still hover around $300 billion, without the expansion expected before legislation.
Blocked by two gates
First, no interest payment. GENIUS prohibits issuers from paying interest to holders. With short-term debt yields above 4%, the opportunity cost of holding stablecoins is 4% to 5% annually. Transaction and payment demand remain, but savings demand is completely absent, and savings is the trillion-level segment. Citibank forecasts a baseline of $1.6 trillion by 2030, optimistic $3.7 trillion, with a middle gap of $2.1 trillion mainly depending on whether yield products are allowed.
Second, market structure lacks rules. Whether coins are securities or commodities, how exchanges register, and whether staking is legal all rely on enforcement cases. This is what the CLARITY Act aims to address, passed by the House 294 to 134.
CLARITY is stuck in the Senate, reasons unrelated to crypto:
One is banking. US bank deposits are about $18 trillion. Banks have cited extreme estimates during lobbying: stablecoin adoption could shift up to $6.6 trillion in deposits. I believe this is exaggerated; reserves will ultimately flow back to the banking system, with the real loss being net interest margin. But net interest margin is the lifeblood of banks, and they demand banning indirect interest payments to exchanges and affiliates.
Two is moral clauses and 60 votes. The Trump family's WLFI issued USD1, and Democrats want to add clauses restricting officials from issuing crypto assets. Republicans hold 53 seats and need 7 Democrat votes; without resolving moral clauses, they can't reach the threshold. Plus, with the November midterms, the window is only September to October.
Given current odds, I estimate: full version 20%, reduced version 35%, delayed to 2027 45%, similar to polymarket's prediction, possibly slightly lower in reality.
The two gates blocking this are the US banking system itself. The Treasury wants new buyers for US debt, but banks don't want to lose deposit interest margins, fighting themselves.
So we get two conclusions:
1. Stablecoins can't save US debt now. Their value lies in the channel, not the total amount: directly connecting global retail USD demand to Treasury bills, bypassing banks and MMF intermediaries. The more channels, the less the Treasury has to rely on specific buyers.
Paying interest is the only key; without approval, stablecoins remain just transaction and payment tools with a visible ceiling.
2. Bitcoin's logic is unrelated to these. The $40 trillion debt ultimately has three paths: growth absorption, inflation dilution, financial repression to suppress rates. But expectations from crypto legislation give Bitcoin a reason to rise. Remember when the Bitcoin ETF had a very low chance of passing, yet Bitcoin rose in advance? It's the same this time.
Back to the most promising crypto stocks, last time the biggest beneficiaries of the Bitcoin ETF were custodian COIN and leveraged Bitcoin MicroStrategy MSTR, both outperforming Bitcoin significantly in the early bull market.
This time the main players are stablecoins, CRCL, and Bitcoin rising due to the US debt crisis, also MSTR leveraged Bitcoin. Before the legislation lands, increasing investment in these two stocks will likely outperform Bitcoin.Bitcoin's market sentiment is quietly shifting from "survival" to "profit-seeking." This recent rebound has brought a large number of holders back into the spotlight, turning losses into profits. This seemingly simple change has actually quietly rewritten the underlying logic of market competition—when people are no longer forced to cut losses, their motivation to sell shifts from fear to active choice. As the pressure eases, new challenges also emerge. Profits themselves are a reason to sell: some want to break even during the rebound, while others want to cash out some at the peak. This means that near the current price, a layer of potential supply pressure may be accumulating. Whether the market can continue to rise depends on whether demand is strong enough and whether these profit-taking positions can be sustained. The focus should be on cross-referencing three sets of relationships: holder profit ratios correspond to potential selling pressure, ETF capital flows represent new demand, and price structure is the final confirmation signal. ETFs are especially worth noting; if institutional funds maintain stable inflows, they are likely to provide the liquidity needed to take profits from selling. It should be clarified that a healthy market never means no sellers. In strong markets, selling pressure is often significant; the real difference lies in whether buyers can fully absorb the pressure. As long as Bitcoin holds key support and demand remains stable, profit-taking is just normal chip rotation; Conversely, if selling accelerates while support is repeatedly lost, the expansion narrative weakens. Profit-taking is not inherently negative; as long as there is enough fresh demand from the other side, their selling may actually be a footnote to market maturity. Risk warning: AccordinglyFamily, American companies have really been making money lately.
Corporate profits in Q2 hit a record high, nearly $4.8 trillion. Profit margins have also surged to levels not seen since the 1940s. The bosses are smiling, shareholders are asking about dividends, and workers are wondering if they can get their paychecks first. But this is indeed related to the big picture.
AI is the core driver behind this profit surge. It's no longer just Nvidia making money; the entire industry chain—chips, cloud computing, data centers, power, cybersecurity—is starting to benefit from AI. SNDK, as an important part of AI storage, naturally also benefits from this chain.
If AI can continue to push profits higher, the current high valuations in the US stock market will be supported by actual performance, giving risk assets confidence and encouraging funds to participate in high-risk investments like crypto. But if AI fails to monetize and profits start to decline, then it will be a very beautiful bubble.
And there’s another side to this. Strong corporate profits are good, but if profits get so strong that they push inflation higher, the Federal Reserve will find it harder to cut interest rates. The economy can’t be too bad, but it also can’t be too good. Investors are really damn hard to please.
Family, whether SNDK can rally today depends on how the market prices this new profit high. The logic of the AI chain remains intact, but you have to manage the timing yourself. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $SNDK $NVDA $BTC The token structure of BICO is quite unique in the current market: all 1 billion tokens have been unlocked and are in circulation, meaning there is no future selling pressure window caused by unlocking schedules. Compared to projects with a large number of tokens still locked, this "fully circulating" feature provides a cleaner environment for price discovery and reduces holders' concerns about timing.📊
From the perspective of the infrastructure sector, BICO is a well-established project that has undergone multiple market tests, with a narrative more focused on actual business implementation rather than story-driven hype. Considering the recent market sensitivity to macro data and volatility brought by options expiration dates, fully circulating tokens often show stronger resilience in choppy markets because supply-side uncertainties have already been priced in.🧭
Of course, full circulation also means that early investors and market makers have more transparent holding costs, and token distribution may be relatively concentrated, which is both an advantage and a potential risk. When market sentiment fluctuates, the movements of large holders still deserve close attention.
Risk warning: Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile, and a fully circulating structure does not guarantee returns. Please assess your own risk tolerance rationally. $BICO🚨 $MRVL BEAT — BUT AI BETA IS UNDER PRESSURE.
Marvell posted strong numbers: 📈 Revenue +37% YoY
🏢 Data Center +46%
🚀 FY27/FY28 outlook raised
Yet $MRVL fell ~8% pre-market, with $SNDK, $MU & $WDC also down.
Meanwhile, $NVDA & $AVGO held steady.
📌 The market may be rotating away from weaker AI plays while direct AI demand remains strong.
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Today's lesson: Even if the high-level reversal signal looks very strong and the shorting win rate feels very high, you must not fully load your position at once.
Watching the K-line plunge sharply with a lot of floating profit, but in a synthetic contract's oscillation, it can quickly rebound at any time, easily sweeping out your position and causing the floating profit to be quickly given back or even stop-loss out.
Applicable scenarios
Only for oscillating markets, where the market repeatedly surges and falls back, with no single strong trend;
⚠️During US stock market holidays or periods of poor liquidity, this batch operation is prohibited because the market is thin and prone to erratic spikes and sweeps.
Operation rules
1. Total position iron cap: 10%, no matter how good the signal is, the total must never exceed 10%.
Even if there is a straight-line surge and reversal, and the subjective judgment of win rate is extremely high, do not go all in with a heavy position at once.
2. Allowed to enter short positions in 3 batches, but only open positions when the price surges and reverses.
- First batch: open a portion when the first surge shows a reversal signal;
- Second batch: add more when the price surges again to the upper edge of the oscillation and reverses again;
- Third batch: only release the last small portion when the price surges for the third time, faces resistance, and falls back;
❗Absolutely no adding to shorts during the downtrend; when the price is going down, adding positions is forbidden, only wait for a new surge reversal point.
3. Closing rules
All positions entered in batches must be closed entirely with profit-taking, no bottom positions left, no halving or holding positions.
4. Stop-loss iron rule
Set a unified stop-loss position; once the price breaks upward out of the oscillation range, exit all positions at once, no holding through losses, no adding positions to average down. Worst-case interest rate expectations: It will likely be difficult to see rate cuts in the Walsh era before the first data from the Walsh working group is released. The market's greatest optimism lies in the gradual weakening of the entire 2026 rate hike expectations.
Core viewpoint: Given the current U.S. financial environment and economic conditions, rate hikes will inevitably trigger economic and financial risks. Walsh cannot bear these consequences, so delaying rate cuts is just to wait for new data and to opportunistically change the existing Fed data anchoring structure.
Therefore, in my view, the most pessimistic expectation is that rate cuts in 2026 may not appear until December, unless economic data during this period provides irrefutable evidence for Walsh to justify rate cuts.
For example, good data would be core PCE annual rate falling below 3%, CPI falling close to or below 3%. Bad data examples include a surge in unemployment rate, nonfarm payroll growth in the 10,000 to 50,000 range, GDP decline, and weakening consumption.
Simply put, either inflation sees a rapid optimistic turn, or the economy faces recession and stagflation risks. Otherwise, I believe current data indeed cannot change Walsh's stance.
The drop in crude oil prices can indeed ease future inflation concerns, but its impact on weakening core PCE is still insufficient. Therefore, the main monetary policy rhythm for the second half of the year may be to reduce rate hike expectations in September and October, and increase rate cut expectations in December. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？