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After Walsh's speech, the crypto market remained largely stable. BTC fell about 0.89% in fifteen minutes, ETH dropped about 1.3%. The core reason lies in the combination of "hawkish but unsurprising" and "pre-priced." The speech itself did not break expectations. Wash clearly stated that inflation remains too high, and that the 2% target is "unwavering and unchangeable." "The current financial environment is hard to call obviously restrictive." His stance leaned hawkish, but before the speech, the market's expected probability of a rate hike in September had risen to 40%. Wash's statement was basically within the market's already priced range. He also explicitly refused to issue forward-looking guidance, stating that "oversharing policy discussion details may mislead the market." The directional answer the market most wanted was missed. BTC had already risen once before the speech Over the past week, BTC surged from about $64,000 to nearly $80,000. Part of the gain was due to pricing in macro events. The slight drop after the speech was delivered was more like a typical case of "buying expectations, selling facts" to take profits rather than panic reactions to the content of the speech. The AI topic diluted its immediate impact. Wash spent considerable space discussing the long-term impact of AI on productivity and the economy. This content was unrelated to short-term monetary policy and diluted the "immediate impact" of the speech. The market structure itself is also moving in the same direction Before the speech, the crypto market was already consolidating. Traders are reluctant to heavily bet before major events. BTC's 4-hour RSI has fallen from overbought to neutral. The market is shifting from "rate cut" logic to expecting "higher and longer" interest rates. New catalysts are needed to break the deadlock. What should we watch next? with AAVE up 33% in the week to launch, Ghost Pass can widen Aave's app reach but adds little near-term support. 50k waitlist signups do not fund the vault. users must retain deposits for spreads to reach the DAO, then governance decides whether revenue reaches AAVE holders.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Walsh's debut is clearly hawkish: The real risk for BTC is not the absence of rate cuts, but that "high interest rates are not over yet" The signals Walsh sent at Jackson Hole are tougher than the market expected. The core logic is simple: inflation is still too high, and current financial conditions can hardly be called truly restrictive. He clearly stated that if inflation does not sustainably and significantly fall back to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do"; meanwhile, the labor maETF has continuous net inflows, but the nature of the two types of funds is completely different, so don't be misled by surface data
BTC and ETH spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with the total weekly inflow hitting a nearly 10-month high. BlackRock is the main buyer. However, there is a structural difference that is easy to overlook:
In BTC-ETF, a large portion comes from long-term allocation funds such as pension funds and endowment funds, which hold long-term after purchase, forming the market base and rarely redeem frequently.
In contrast, ETH-ETF has a more complex fund structure. Besides long-term allocation, a large amount comes from macro hedging and swing trading funds. These funds enter the market to speculate on short-term catch-up rallies, and once macro data falls short of expectations, they quickly redeem and exit.
I just got unstuck this afternoon and didn’t leave, now I’m stuck again. Interesting.
The direct result on the market is: on days with ETF inflows, $BTC buying is solid with support on pullbacks; $ETH has strong upward impulses but weaker sustainability, and it is easy to face selling pressure after surging.
Many traders simply equate ETF net inflows with blind buying, ignoring the nature of the funds. Now with intensive macro data releases, such as unemployment benefits and Michigan consumer sentiment being published in succession, the speed of swing funds entering and exiting will accelerate. Continuous ETF inflows represent support at the base but do not mean deep pullbacks won’t occur. Futures trading cannot rely solely on ETF data as a trading basis.Just watched Walsh's speech, and as expected, it had little impact on the market; the trend continues as it was. He opposes forward-looking guidance and hopes everyone interprets the current environment on their own. Naturally, he won't intervene proactively; unless in extreme situations, the market is still left to digest on its own. Regarding specific asset prices, after most selling is done, new buyers willing to continue investing will naturally drive prices up, and vice versa. It can be said that after events that directly affect the market occur, people only realize it belatedly, meaning 99.9% of events are just noise. $BTC $SNDK The Jackson Hole annual meeting has entered a critical moment, and tonight's market attention is almost entirely focused on Wash's first public speech. Given the current macro environment, several variables deserve close attention: 📌 Market background before the speech · Rising policy uncertainty: This is an important public appearance since Wash's new term. Previously, he remained cautious about the future interest rate path without providing clear forward-looking guidance, causing noticeable volatility in the bond market. Whether a clearer policy framework can be released tonight will directly affect market expectations. · Inflation remains under pressure: Latest data shows the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index was about 3.1% year-on-year, still significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Some officials remain concerned about sticky inflation, prompting the market to reassess the future interest rate path. 📈 What is the market expecting? Currently, the market generally believes that Walsh may not directly signal a rate hike or cut, but is more likely to emphasize the balance between inflation, employment, and financial conditions. What truly deserves attention is not a single sentence, but his overall description of inflation trends, interest rate levels, and the financial environment. ⚠️ Volatility risk should not be underestimated Historically, Jackson Hole's speeches have sometimes caused only brief disturbances, but if the language is clearly hawkish, risk assets may quickly reprice. Especially since the current $BTC is in a critical range, synchronized changes in US stocks, the dollar, and Treasury yields could amplify volatility in the crypto market. Tonight, focus on three things: 1️⃣ Whether Wash has issued a clear interest rate direction 2️⃣ US Treasury yields and the dollar#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Warsh's debut at Jackson Hole tonight, can he clarify the policy framework?
Warsh's first appearance at Jackson Hole landed with a tone more hawkish than the market expected.
As his first keynote speech at Jackson Hole since taking office, the core statement was very clear: the 2% inflation target measured by PCE is "firm and unshakable." Recent inflation data beating expectations does not mean the underlying trend has meaningfully improved. The Fed's current primary focus is on prices.
The most critical sentence: "We must be confident that core inflation is clearly and quickly moving back to target, or else we have more work to do," which directly leaves room for further rate hikes. At the same time, he reiterated that short-term interest rates are the main policy tool, unconventional policies are only for real crises, continued to defend abandoning forward guidance, and maintained a "data-dependent" communication style.
The market reacted quickly: after the speech, spot gold plunged briefly, the dollar index rose, and U.S. Treasury yields increased. Previously, the market had expectations for policy easing, but now the hawkish bottom line has been clearly drawn.
The crypto market reacted simultaneously. Bitcoin just completed $6.4 billion in options settlement, $BTC is consolidating narrowly near 80,000. Volatility did increase after Warsh's speech, but it did not effectively break the strong intraday support at 78,000; $ETH is fluctuating near the 2,500 level. Risk assets overall have entered a phase of digesting policy signals.
This time no clear rate hike timetable was given, but the bottom line of "acting if inflation does not fall" was revealed. The rate hike expectations for the September FOMC meeting will likely be revised upward, and upcoming inflation data will carry more weight. $BTC $2.8 TRUMP—do you want to chase it?
Looking at the surface first: 160% rise in 10 days, retail investors frantically chase the market, shouting "Trump bull."
On August 13, it bottomed at 1.37, then surged violently, reaching a high of 3.6 in 10 days, a 170% increase. White House crypto summit, CLARITY bill introduced, "new coin" rumors trigger FOMO.
RSI is overbought, CCI is overbought, trading volume is abnormally amplified, and after an overheated rebound, it is experiencing high-level oscillation.
First thing: rumors about "new coins" driving up the market, then selling after debunking them—the script is too familiar.
Some accounts leaked that "Trump is going to issue new coins," and spot prices jumped from 1.4 to 3.6, causing retail investors' FOMO to rush in. Eric Trump then declared: there was no new coin, and the claim to issue new coins was a scam. The price immediately retreated.
Rumors pulling the market, fake selling off, this assembly line has run countless times on this coin. Retail investors are still rushing for the "Trump bull," with internal linked wallets already transferring tokens to OK to cash out millions of dollars.
The second thing: The White House meeting is real, but "meeting" does not mean "price pumping."
Trump met crypto executives at the White House and urged Congress to advance the Market Structure Bill, relighting the "pro-crypto president" narrative. This was indeed a positive development. The good news was realized, and then what?
The CLARITY Act is a procedural progress, not an actual implementation. If there is progress in mid-September, there will be another emotional pulse, but after the pulse, it's highly likely you'll still sell. The biggest fear of meme coins isn't that no one buys them, but that insiders sell when you rush in.
Third: A signal from the technical side that must be taken seriously.
From 1.37 to 3.6, a 10-day rise of 170%—this is a triple resonance of oversold + bearish squeeze + rumors, not a healthy trend. Now the price has fallen from 3.6 to 2.8, which is a "second rebound after a surge," not a "main rally relay."
The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you
On one side:
The White House personally endorsed it, reigniting the political narrative
It rebounded violently from 1.37, turning bullish
BTC holds above 80,000, risk appetite is rising
Spot ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, improving liquidity
On one side:
It rose 170% in 10 days, technically seriously overheated
Internal linked wallets continue to ship + 900,000 coins unlocked daily
On September 18, there will be another large unlock (28.7 million tokens)
About 98% of buyers remain stuck, with heavy selling pressure above
Resistance above: 2.90-2.96 → 3.20-3.25→ 3.55-3.77
Support below: 2.50-2.55 (lifeline) → 2.20-2.25 (20-week EMA) → 2.05 (breakout and weakening) → 1.37-1.50 (deep decline)
Scenario A: Pullback and go long
Wait until volume shrinks and stabilizes at 2.52-2.58, then move forward, stop loss at 2.45, target 3.05-3.20. Alternatively, hold above 2.96 on increased volume to chase a breakout, stop loss at 2.78, target 3.20/3.55.
Scenario B: Short at a high level
If there is a long upper shadow, volume-price divergence, or higher rates between 2.88 and 2.96, you can go short, targeting 2.55/2.22 and a stop loss at 3.05. For short positions, you should also guard against short squeezes caused by "dovish speech + BTC rebound"; the position must be smaller than for long positions.
Scenario C: Wait and see
If it breaks below 2.50 and cannot recover within 1 hour, first short the position. The next watch point is 2.21. Only after holding hold will the bullish position be reassessed; If it breaks below 2.05, the 1.37 rebound structure will end.
Operational strategy
The iron rule of position positioning:
This is a high-volatility political meme, perpetuating only 3-5 times
Risk control for a single transaction is 1%-2% of principal
No overnight heavy positions betting on speeches; Warsh reduces positions before and after his speech
"Hold firm" has a negative expected value on this coin. The strategy must be swing, not faith.
It dropped from 75 to 1.37, then from 1.37 to 2.8, but the essence hasn't changed: it's still an Attention Asset + Unlock Machine.
A large portion of the trading volume you see at 2.8 is from contract gamblers and insiders trading hands in the counterparty's market. In the short term, you can catch volatility; in the medium to long term, don't use spot thinking to "bottom-fish and wait for doubling."
You watch the rebound, the team watches your buys.
Have you made or lost money on TRUMP?
2.8 At this position, would you dare to get on board?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP Risk warning: This article is only an objective market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so be sure to pay attention to risks. As institutional funds deepen their involvement and compliance systems gradually take shape, the overall margin for error in the crypto market is changing. On one hand, large capital inflows have erased some of the most irrational surges and falls; On the other hand, institutional portfolio rebalancing, ETF subscriptions and redemptions, and derivative linkages have amplified the intensity of medium-term volatility. BTC and ETH share the same macro environment, but their tolerance thresholds are completely different. Recognizing their differences and establishing position thinking suited to a volatile environment is far more meaningful than obsessively predicting tops and bottoms. Bitcoin's market fault tolerance threshold is relatively higher. Its narrative is simple and clear, total supply is scarce, and regulatory positioning is well-defined, making it a choice for institutions to diversify their allocation. ETF funds flow in two directions: subscriptions raise prices when the market is good, redemptions when risks rise create selling pressure, and there is no one-way permanent buying. Long-term holders accumulate large base positions, and pullbacks provide support momentum, but this does not mean prices won't experience intermediate pullbacks. Historical trapped positions, short-term profit-taking positions, and institutional profit-taking will still trigger significant pullbacks. Bitcoin has no cash flow; valuations anchor liquidity and risk appetite. Once macro trends suddenly shift, valuation centers will still shift downward. High fault tolerance means it's easier to attract funds after declines, but it doesn't mean prices won't fall. Ethereum's fault tolerance threshold is significantly lower. ETH's price is highly dependent on risk appetite, and speculative funds make up a higher proportion of holder structure. When market sentiment is optimistic, it's highly elastic;$SPCX's recent surge, I believe, is mainly due to the resonance of three factors:
1. SpaceX announced a major expansion of Starbase.
SpaceX plans to invest about $100 billion by 2035 to build a large space base in Louisiana, and the market has started to reprice SpaceX's long-term growth potential.
2. The AI narrative continues to heat up.
SpaceX plans to advance AI satellites equipped with Nvidia chips, and Nvidia has reignited the AI narrative with its earnings report, linking the popular concepts of “SpaceX+Starlink+AI computing power,” further expanding market imagination.
3. Capital is flowing back into SPCX.
SPCX previously experienced lock-up expirations and valuation disputes, but recently the price has returned above the IPO price, and market sentiment has somewhat recovered.
SpaceX expansion + AI satellite expectations + Starlink growth = SPCX is being speculated on again by capital.
But be cautious, as there is another lock-up expiration on September 9, so there is still significant short-term selling pressure risk.
My view: Short-term sentiment is bullish, but the closer it gets to the previous high, the more you should guard against a sharp pullback. Don’t blindly chase the price just because the news is strong. #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 By November 2026, after two consecutive months of digesting high box levels, profit-taking, leverage risk, and macro bearish sentiment in the crypto market have mostly been priced in by the market. Bitcoin fluctuates between $75,000 and $79,000, Ethereum holds the $2,300 mark, and overall volatility continues to decline. The market focus has shifted from emotional maneuvering over a single Fed meeting to observing inflation persistence, year-end ETF rebalancing efforts, and the actual output of the Ethereum ecosystem. The decision toward a box is getting closer, and the strength and weakness of BTC and ETH remain unchanged. On the capital side, Bitcoin spot ETFs have maintained moderate net inflows, with no large-scale inflows or ongoing redemptions. As the year-end approaches, some institutions have begun annual asset rebalancing, mainly using dollar-cost investment base positions rather than aggressive chasing highs. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin inventories on exchanges remain at historic lows, whale addresses continue to withdraw tokens, long-term holders' holdings remain unchanged, and the $74,000 support has been further tested and further effective. However, trading volume remains insufficient at the $80,000 resistance level above, indicating that relying solely on existing existing funds is difficult to achieve a direct breakout and still requires external incremental capital support. Ethereum's liquidity remains weak, with ETF funds repeatedly switching between inflows and outflows, with clear divergences among institutions. Trading activity on the Layer 2 network remains stable, DeFi staking scale fluctuates slightly, and the overall ecosystem is in a state of moderate recovery, with no explosive growth. Staking unlocking proceeds as planned$LIGHT Today it climbed to the top of the gainers' chart. In this situation, reaching such a high level is likely a pullback. Because there aren't many coins with big gains in the market right now, and with it standing out like a crane, it's likely to be cut down by short sellers. So I think it's likely to pull back in the short term. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. Looking at the data, we can see that its contract open interest is continuously rising, while the corresponding contract long-short ratio is steadily decreasing. This aligns with my own view: there is a lot of capital shorting in the market right now. Facing such strong bear pressure, it is probably very difficult to maintain the current price. In the short term, I think it will pull back. —————————————————— I am currently very pessimistic about the market. Because given the current situation, the Fed's willingness to raise interest rates is getting stronger, and market liquidity may continue to tighten. If everyone has no money in hand, how can prices go up? Generally speaking, when liquidity tightens, the market generally declines. Of course, a small number of coins manage to surge. We generally call these coins 'monster coins.' I don't think $LIGHT is a monster coin, because if you look closely at its candlesticks, you'll see it crashed many times in the early days. In such cases, there are many trapped investors. A crash is different from a bearish drop; a bearish drop can gradually wear down trapped positions, and this kind of crash will make people give up immediatelyWalsh's debut is clearly hawkish: The real risk for BTC is not the absence of rate cuts, but that "high interest rates are not over yet" The signals Walsh sent at Jackson Hole are tougher than the market expected. The core logic is simple: inflation is still too high, and current financial conditions can hardly be called truly restrictive. He clearly stated that if inflation does not sustainably and significantly fall back to the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do"; meanwhile, the labor ma$SNDK SanDisk's movement today is a bit hard to describe.
Although they and Kioxia launched a $31 billion large-scale expansion in Japan, the market isn't buying it, thinking the capital expenditure is too high and will squeeze profits, turning what should be good news into bad news.
The technical side is also weak; short-term moving averages have all formed death crosses, and the price is being suppressed.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 Everyone, tonight at 10 PM, Federal Reserve Chair will make his debut at Jackson Hole. Nvidia's earnings report is just the appetizer; the Fed Chair's words will decide if the 80,000 Bitcoin can hold steady.
He was unclear at the July meeting, causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to spike to 5.34%, and US debt to surpass 40 trillion. The silence is turning into expensive noise. Tonight, he needs to restore credibility by providing a clear policy reaction function—how inflation, employment, and growth will trigger policy adjustments.
Three key points: Core PCE at 3.3% is far above 2%, showing a vague attitude toward inflation; long bonds will face more selling. The 30-year yield near 5.3%—if he implies that high long-term yields have tightened financial conditions, that’s a dovish signal; if he ignores the bond market, it will continue to be hammered. CME shows about a 45% chance of a rate hike in September, so likely no clear commitment.
For BTC, a hawkish stance means Bitcoin may pull back to 75,000-77,000; a dovish stance tests 83,000-85,000; if he dodges, expect continued oscillation between 78,000-81,000. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
No betting on direction tonight; wait for him to clarify. Good luck everyone. $ETH is more risky than Bitcoin in the short term, with a high probability of testing previous lows, but a "breakdown crash" is not yet visible.
Breaking it down, Ethereum currently faces three pressures:
· Exchange rate "death cross" drag: The ETH/BTC rate is around 0.042, at an absolute low in nearly three years. As long as Bitcoin is supported between 72,000-74,000, Ethereum will not experience a "collapse" drop; but if Bitcoin falls to 72,000 first, Ethereum's decline will be amplified by the exchange rate, possibly hitting the previous low of 2,100 first.
· On-chain data "surrender": The Bitcoin rebound in your chart is accompanied by volume, but Ethereum's volume continues to shrink during its rise, indicating funds only recognize Bitcoin. Worse, Gas fees have dropped below 2 Gwei, putting the network into a deflationary stagnation state. If previously staked institutions start redeeming, it will create a "sell coins to repay debts" negative feedback loop.
· Weak defense at support levels: 2,100-2,200 is a psychological threshold but lacks the heavy chip support like Bitcoin. Once it breaks below 2,100, the real strong support is at 1,800 (the 2025 bull market start level). However, breaking below 1,800 is very unlikely unless the Federal Reserve clearly raises interest rates or a major DeFi liquidation occurs.Wash's statement "If inflation doesn't fall fast enough, we dare to raise rates" has directly extinguished much of the crypto community's newly ignited loose monetary policy fantasy. Everyone was gearing up, waiting for $BTC to break through the 80,000 ceiling, expecting a direct surge to 90,000 once the monetary easing breeze blew. But as soon as this hawkish stance came out, the dollar and US Treasury yields jumped on the spot, and the 80,000 level that BTC just touched immediately became a sh$BTC Regarding the question of whether it will break the new low of 57,750 in the future, the short-term probability (next 1-3 months) is very low, but if there is a hard economic landing later, it cannot be ruled out. Here's the breakdown of the logic:
· Technical aspect: The "safety cushion" below is very thick. The 57,750 on your chart is the adjustment low point in July 2026, while the current weekly MA120 (around 72,000) and the dense chip area (70,000-74,000) form a double support. Without an extreme black swan event, it is difficult to directly break through these two defenses to reach 57,750. The more realistic short-term scenario is oscillation within the large range of 72,000-82,000.
· Macro aspect: The Fed cannot deliver a "fatal blow." The Fed's "hawkish" stance only delays rate cuts, not restarts rate hikes. As long as interest rates do not exceed 5.5%, market liquidity can sustain the current price. The only thing that could push it down to 57,750 would be the Fed being forced to restart rate hikes or a major institution defaulting, which currently has a very low probability.
· Key variable: The timing might be next year. 57,750 corresponds to the pullback low point after the 2026 halving bull market. If the US economy falls into recession next year and the Fed has to urgently cut rates (which would confirm a crisis), then risk assets will face the final drop, and that level might be tested.It's hawkish, not playing tai chi!
1. Inflation hasn't truly come down yet; the 2% target will never be compromised. Inflation is the top priority.
2. The current interest rate environment is not restrictive enough; further rate hikes are not ruled out, keeping tightening options open.
3. No more advance market guidance; future decisions will be based mainly on current data, with no early rate commitments.
Meaning: Prices haven't fallen enough yet, further rate hikes are possible, and there won't be easy money flooding the market.
But here's the catch: they didn't make a definitive statement, no direct decision that September will definitely see a hike, just that future data will determine it.
The market was suddenly confused.
Gold was first hammered down, crypto markets dipped then bounced back repeatedly. $BTC $ETH
Some interpreted it as tightening and rushed to sell; others saw no definitive decision and dared to buy back.
Simply put:
It's neither outright bearish nor bullish, more like tough talk without a firm answer, so the market will keep oscillating. $SOL
Market reaction:
Gold plunged sharply, US Treasury yields rose. Crypto markets instantly spiked back and forth, first dropping then recovering, as the market digests the weight of this statement, volatility will continue to increase.
Market expectations for a September rate hike have risen directly.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Walsh's first Jackson Hole speech summed up the core sentence with this sentence. Walsh clearly raised the "inflation priority" again. He believes that if inflation delays below 2%, the Fed still has "work to do" and may raise rates further if necessary. Currently, core PCE is still at 3.3%, while the market's probability of a rate hike in the next month has been pushed to about 46%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.29%, a one-month high. · Walsh also wants the Fed to become "quieter," reducing forward-looking guidance and no longer frequently spoiling policy paths to the market. He believes the market overrelies on dot plots and central bank statements, ultimately forming a cycle of "the Fed watching the market, the market guessing the Fed." In the future, inflation, employment, financial conditions, and the bond market are more likely to speak for themselves. · Direct impact on assets: The dollar and short-term bond yields are relatively strong, high-valuation technology and BTC are under short-term pressure, and gold will also be suppressed by real interest rates. In fact, the market has already traded in some of the easing expectations in advance. Right before the speech, BTC regained the $80,000 mark, and gold held steadily above $4,600; Meanwhile, US equity funds saw a weekly net outflow of $22.3 billion, with funds clearly starting to defend. My characterization of this speech is: not "a rate hike will definitely happen in September," but rather Walsh formally telling the market: don't guess me anymore, I'll look at the data, and if necessary, I really will cut the price. In the short term, I'll be more cautious: $BTC first look for $80,000 support, $XAUT gold to see real interest rate direction; The real market will actually depend on subsequent inflation and employment figures#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
I opened two small capital contract grids and ran them for more than a day. I set a "health check standard" for myself to judge whether they are making money or deteriorating:
Standard 1: Is the number of arbitrages > 0? SPCX ran 1 time, SNDK ran 0 times. 0 times basically means this strategy is currently not working for you, either the range is set wrong or the volatility is insufficient.
Standard 2: Overall profit trend. Look at "total profit," not "grid profit." SPCX total profit is -0.30%, indicating that unrealized losses from direction outweigh arbitrage gains; the strategy is bleeding but still holding; SNDK total profit ≈0 means it’s inactive, not losing.
Standard 3: How far is the price from the range boundary? SNDK is currently at 1463, 4.5% above the lower boundary of 1400, temporarily safe but a neutral grid close to the lower boundary is prone to going out of range.
Standard 4: Distance to liquidation price. This is the lifeline of contract grids, as mentioned earlier.
My advice for beginners: Don’t obsess over arbitrage counts every day to feel good. Just check two things daily—whether total profit is positive or negative, and how much space remains before the price hits the boundary/liquidation. If both are healthy, let it run; if either worsens, adjust the range or shut it down. The strategy is a hired worker; you need to regularly check its attendance.
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 @OKX成长学院 I have seen quite a few companies where, despite continuous execution of business contracts on paper, the stock price is pressed down and dragged along with sector sentiment. In my view, APLD is such a company unfairly punished by market prejudice as an AI infrastructure stock. I'm not here to hype the stock or advise anyone to buy in; I'm just laying out the market disagreements and the company's actual situation as I see it. Many people's first impression of APLD still lingers on its old label from the early days of crypto mining, even though the company has long completed its business transformation and is fully focused on AI high-performance computing data centers. This old impression is still hard to erase. Whenever the AI computing power sector experiences a pullback, the first reaction of capital is to sell it off. The market views it with a very simple and crude perspective: it is still losing money, has a considerable amount of debt, large lease agreements are just contracts on paper, and real large-scale cash inflows are yet to come. As long as these points are on the table, many institutions directly label it as a high-risk speculative stock and are unwilling to give it a growth premium. But if you strip away the sentiment and look at the underlying business, the situation is not as pessimistic as the market reflects. Its core business now is building and operating high-density liquid-cooled data centers adapted for AI large model training and inference, earning stable rental income through long-term lease contracts. It has already secured sizable long-term leases, signing multi-year large-scale data center leases with CoreWeave, locking in very substantial future contract income. This is not a story drawn on a PPT; these are commercial contracts signed in black and white. Changes in revenue are also concretely reflected in the financial#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Tonight's Wash speech:
2% PCE target is "firm and unshakable" — "there should be no misunderstanding"
"Must be confident that core inflation is moving clearly and fast enough toward the target, otherwise more work is needed"
Inflation data this summer was better than expected, but the underlying trend has not substantially changed
"It's hard to determine that financial conditions are restrictive" — credit markets show almost no tightening effect (the most hawkish comment: basically current rates are still not tight enough)
Prices will not revert to the mean on their own, the Fed needs to act; at the same time, refuses to cooperate with Treasury buybacks, refuses to give forward guidance
Market reaction (within one hour after 22:00):
Asset movement range
September rate hike probability 33.9% → 41.7% (CME) / about 50% (traders betting) ↑ 8–16pp
Dollar index jumps nearly 40 points → 99.4283 (high 99.4559) +0.33%
Spot gold breaks below $4,550, hitting the lowest since 8/21, plunging $40–80
Silver turns from +2.8% to negative—
2-year US Treasury 4.286% (highest since 7/31) ↑
BTC 79,000 → **79,000 → **78,000** -1.3%
Also overlooked on the same day: initial benchmark revision for US 2026 nonfarm payrolls -79,000 (expected 183,000) — employment is actually weakening but completely overshadowed by hawkish speeches.Both Btc and Eth have dropped, but $ZEC is showing some potential, rising from 774 to 834 within 24 hours, currently priced at 810, with a 24-hour trading volume of 500 million. BTC's trading volume is only 560 million 🤔
Watching the data on OKX, my first reaction isn't "bullish," but "this is gambling." ZEC's trading volume hitting 500 million, almost on par with BTC, would you believe that normally? An old anonymous coin, usually with trading volume like a third-tier altcoin, suddenly this big spike can only mean one thing: speculators are manipulating the market, not genuine value discovery. I checked BTC again; 24-hour volume is 560 million, price still falling, indicating mainstream is adjusting, funds have nowhere to go, so they rush into small pools like ZEC to stir things up.
Current price 810, another classic pump and dump scenario. The old trick of trapping holders at the top, I've seen it many times on OKX. For this kind of coin, the bigger the volume, the more it shows increasing disagreement between bulls and bears, with manipulative traders trading back and forth inside, and retail investors getting cut on both ends. Why do I judge this way? Because it fell from 834 back to 810, showing heavy selling pressure above, no one willing to buy at the high, volume is big but price didn't hold, this volume is selling volume, not accumulation.
$ZEC my stance is clear: don't chase. Jumping in at this point is like lending money to manipulators to run away with. If I were to participate, I'd wait for two signals: either it breaks above 834 with volume and holds above 810 on pullback, showing bulls really want to push the price up; or it drops back to the 760-770 range with shrinking volume and stops falling, then I'd lightly buy in to catch a rebound and exit. At this point, it could go either way, entering now is like betting on heads or tails, I'd rather watch the show.
The crypto world never lacks opportunities, it lacks discipline. ZEC looks tempting this round, but I know my limits, this kind of money isn't my style. I'll keep holding my BTC and OKB base positions, no envy, no itchiness, let the bullets fly a little longer.Elon Musk said: Within five years, a large number of people will lose their jobs because of AI.
But what’s truly worth fearing might not be "unemployment."
It’s that you suddenly realize:
AI is replacing not just jobs, but the bargaining power of ordinary people.
Musk says that in the next five years many will be pushed out of work by AI, yet he also tells you: everyone has a chance in the AI era.
Sounds fair.
But then look at what he himself is doing.
$SPCX has already made AI its core bet for the future: AI revenue is expected to surpass all other business income combined as early as this September, and Musk even directly stated—four or five years from now, AI could account for 99% of SpaceX’s value.
That’s interesting.
The old logic of wealth was:
you have time → you have skills → you exchange for wages.
The AI era might become:
you have AI → you have computing power → you have data → you have capital → machines generate income for you.
So here’s the question:
Will the people replaced by AI be the same ones making money from AI?
Most likely not.
The real dividing line might not be "whether you can use ChatGPT."
But five years from now:
Are you working for AI,
or do you own AI?
That’s the truly terrifying part of Musk’s statement.
AI might not eliminate all jobs, but it very likely will redistribute wealth.Today, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole, and market expectations for rate hikes have heated up again. Analyzing Warsh's speech, it's not hard to see that the Fed is currently in a dilemma: it wants to cut rates but inflation doesn't allow it. At the same time, think about it—can rate hikes really solve the problem? Not really! Because tech companies need massive financing and cannot tolerate high interest rates! So how to balance these two? Warsh's approach is to be hawkish in words but not in actions. On the surface, he cannot show even the slightest dovishness, but since the Fed started repurchasing U.S. Treasuries, a subtle dovish stance has actually begun, maintaining an atmosphere that keeps you guessing but never quite sure—this is Warsh's most brilliant move! Back to the main topic, what happened to Bitcoin during the same period? It surged violently by over 10,000 points, then started to pull back after Warsh's speech today. After all, it needs to align with market expectations and soften a bit. The trading logic is very clear: the market is saying, "I already know what you want to do, how you will do it, and what the consequences will be, so I will use the market to falsify your logic." In the short term, Bitcoin is entering a high-level consolidation phase. I believe the pullback is limited; we can first observe whether the 78,000 level holds, with a target range of 83,000 to 86,000, forming a continuation platform for the upward trend! Creating is not easy, please follow me, I will continue to update more quality content! (The author holds MicroStrategy, BMNR, SOL, and ARB spot positions. I will analyze from multiple dimensions and share the market insights I can understand.) #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC #Will_Wash_appear_at_Jackson_Hole_tonight_and_clarify_the_policy_framework?
#Is_BTC_about_to_be_manipulated_by_the_Fed_again?
At the recent Jackson Hole meeting, Wash did not give the dovish answer the market expected.
Simply put: Whether there will be a rate cut in September, I won't tell you now.
But if inflation doesn't return to 2% soon, the Fed may continue tightening.
Once this statement came out, the market started repricing "higher rates for longer."
Actually, this is what BTC needs to pay attention to right now.
Because what BTC really fears is never just a "rate hike."
It's: US Treasury yields rising → USD strengthening → liquidity tightening → pressure on risk assets.
Previously, the market was still trading on rate cut expectations, but now Wash has pulled that expectation back.
So I won't rush to guess whether BTC will rise or fall next.
I prefer to watch three things:
The USD, US Treasury yields, and $BTC capital flows.
If after Wash's speech, US Treasury yields continue to rise and BTC breaks key support again, be cautious that this rebound may re-enter a correction.
But if after the market digests this hawkish stance: yields don't rise, the USD isn't strong, and BTC doesn't fall,
then it gets interesting, because it means the market may have already priced in the "Fed hawkish bias" in advance.
The current price can actually be shorted a little. Tomorrow is the weekend, volatility won't be too big, so no need to worry too much. Still, pay attention to capital flows later! The market is undergoing a quiet tug-of-war. $BTC hovers around $80,000, $ETH fluctuates around $2,500. This sideways movement is not hesitation but a recalibration of understanding by bulls and bears on the same question: when liquidity will truly shift, and whether new capital will come. The answer lies in these two places. First is the Jackson Hole annual meeting. The market has long digested rate cuts themselves; what they are really waiting for is how the Fed defines the current economic playbook. If the wording leans dovish, emphasizing employment pressures and controlled inflation, and the dollar and Treasury yields fall, the upside for risk assets will open up; Conversely, if inflation remains stubborn, the market will have to revise expectations again, and the current build-up period could turn into a deeper correction. Therefore, what the market is waiting for is not a specific outcome but a new narrative framework. Second is the flow of ETF funds. Last week, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, while Ethereum saw $697 million. The data alone is indeed encouraging. But the market is an expectation machine and won't pay a premium for what has already happened. A real breakout requires capital inflows to form positive feedback: rising prices attract capital, which then drives prices further. The $79,000 to $82,000 range is both a chip-dense zone and a confidence test. A high-volume breakout signals the formation of a cycle, while sustained resistance indicates the narrative is hard to sustain. Looking deeper, crypto assets are caught between the dual identities of "digital gold" and "high-risk assets." When liquidity tightens, it leads the decline and is accommodatingFederal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's first major speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. The official Fed schedule confirms the speech time as 10:00 AM Eastern Time.
There is already a fairly clear signal: Warsh is hawkish. He emphasized that inflation is still significantly away from the 2% target, and if inflation does not continue to decline, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. He also believes current financial conditions are not tight enough. After the speech, the market's probability of a rate hike in September rose significantly.
Regarding the crypto $BTC market
Short-term bearish, and volatility is likely to increase tonight.
The logic is simple:
Hawkish → US Treasury yields ↑ → USD ↑ → Rate cut expectations ↓ → BTC/ETH under pressure
Especially if Warsh clearly signals tonight that "rate hikes may still occur in September or even by the end of the year," BTC and ETH are likely to first see a sell-off followed by a look for capital support.
Conversely, if he only emphasizes "data dependency" without further strengthening rate hike expectations, the market may rebound after the negative news is priced in.
My judgment: Tonight is not suitable for guessing the direction in advance. Focus on whether the first round of rally/dip after the speech is supported by capital.
In short: The biggest risk tonight is not the speech itself, but "hawkishness exceeding expectations." Currently, the crypto market leans ★★★★☆ bearish.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Today's capital flow in the US market shows an intriguing signal📊. According to reports, Bitwise's ETP products attracted nearly $100 million in net inflows in a single day, but this money did not flow solely into Bitcoin; instead, it showed a clear tiered allocation.
Among them, Solana led with about $40 million inflow, Bitcoin followed closely with about $22 million, HYPE took about $20 million, XRP received about $12 million, and Ethereum was relatively flat, recording only about $1.4 million.
The information revealed by this data may be more interesting than the total amount itself. Bitcoin remains the cornerstone of crypto assets, but funds did not stop there; they clearly spread toward high-volatility, high-elasticity targets like SOL and HYPE. This is not simply new capital entering the market but more like active rebalancing of existing funds across sectors, with investors using real money to express their pursuit of higher risk-reward ratios.
It is worth noting that this differentiation also means market consensus is not yet fully unified. Funds are probing multiple tracks, which is both a diversification away from reliance on a single asset and implies divergence in expectations for subsequent market trends. In the short term, such rotation may continue to amplify altcoin volatility.
Risk warning: ETP capital flows only reflect part of institutional behavior and do not constitute a comprehensive market signal. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; please interpret the data rationally and make decisions cautiously. $SOL $BTC $HYPE $XRP $ETHFederal Reserve Chair Wash's speech today may be a short-term turning point for BTC.
In the past 10 days, BTC has rebounded quickly from a low, once again surpassing $81,000. The market had already started trading on rate cut expectations and even hoped this rebound would continue to break higher.
But tonight, Wash's stance was clearly hawkish.
He emphasized that inflation is still far from the 2% target, and if inflation does not continue to decline, the Federal Reserve still "has work to do," implying the possibility of further rate hikes.
After the speech, BTC fell back to around $79,000.
I believe the most critical issue for BTC now is not whether the bull market is over, but whether this rebound can withstand the Federal Reserve's renewed tightening expectations.
In the short term, the $80,000 level has become a key battleground between bulls and bears. If BTC can quickly reclaim and hold above $80,000, it indicates the market has sufficiently digested the hawkish speech, and there is still a chance to continue challenging higher.
But if it continues to fall below $80,000, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields keep strengthening, then this rebound should be watched carefully as it may mark the "end of the rebound."
So going forward, I will focus on three things:
Whether BTC can firmly stand above $80,000 again;
Whether the Federal Reserve's September rate expectations continue to turn hawkish;
Whether US inflation data can truly come down.
Currently, my view is: cautious in the short term, but the medium-term trend is not completely broken yet.
#BTC #Bitcoin #FederalReserve #Cryptocurrency #OKX#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC $ETH $OKB
The Chair (Federal Reserve Chair Wash) spoke last night, overall hawkish, which is bearish for risk assets.
1. Inflation hasn't fundamentally come down enough
He said recent inflation data was "better than expected," but that doesn't mean the underlying trend has substantially improved. He also said unless confident inflation is rapidly moving toward the 2% target, the Fed "still has work to do." This effectively raises the bar for rate cuts.
2. Complains the current financial environment isn't tight enough
He directly said, "It's hard to describe the overall financial environment as having a tightening effect," meaning the current interest rate level is not high enough in his view and hasn't truly restrained the economy. This implies further tightening may be needed.
3. Breaking tradition, no "feeding" the market
In previous years, the Fed Chair would give some policy direction at Jackson Hole, but this time he directly avoided discussing rate trajectory, saying the Fed shouldn't pre-announce actions. Without "forward guidance," the market can only guess blindly, increasing volatility.
Market reaction was also direct
Once the speech was out, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded in a V-shape, and the market's probability of a September rate hike jumped 6 percentage points. The dollar strengthened, which is real pressure on risk assets like BTC.
So now the market worries not about late rate cuts, but possibly more hikes, which is a real bearish factor for the crypto space. Previously, BTC's rise from 62k to 79k was supported by liquidity expectations from the Treasury buying long bonds; now with the Chair's stance, short-term risk appetite will definitely be suppressed. Jackson Hole Speech Interpretation on Gold (XAUUSDT)
Key Points of the Speech (Hawkish Bias)
1. Inflation Priority: The 2% PCE inflation target is fixed and unshakable; the pace of inflation decline is slower than expected, and price stability is the primary task of monetary policy.
2. Weakened Forward Guidance: No longer providing the market with advance interest rate commitments; all depends on real-time subsequent data; did not explicitly say there will be a rate hike in September but rejected expectations of rate cuts.
3. Assessment of Strong Economic Resilience: Current monetary policy is not considered "sufficiently restrictive," implying rates may remain high and further tightening is not ruled out.
Market Reaction After the Speech:
• US Dollar Index surged briefly, US Treasury yields rose
• Gold plunged directly, quickly dropping from around 4600 to a low near 4550
• Probability of a September rate hike jumped from 34% to nearly 50%, with the market repricing "higher rates maintained longer"
Fundamental Logic Breakdown
✅ Bearish for Gold (Short-term)
The US dollar and Treasury yields rose; gold is a non-yielding asset, and a high interest rate environment suppresses gold prices. The market had been speculating on future rate cuts, but the speech shattered easing hopes, bringing correction pressure to gold at high levels.
✅ Bullish for Gold (Medium to Long-term Fundamentals Remain)
1. Global central banks' continued gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US's massive fiscal deficit remain underlying factors unchanged by the speech.
2. The lack of rate commitments means if subsequent data weakens, easing expectations can return; this is not a complete entry into a sustained rate hike cycle. Recent on-chain data shows that a batch of Bitcoin wallets dormant for over a decade have begun to awaken. In the past ten days, addresses that had not moved since 2011 to 2014 transferred about 553.59 BTC, valued at over $40 million 💰 based on reference prices.
This news easily sparks speculation, but a key distinction must be clarified: whale asset movement does not equal selling. Currently, these coins have been transferred to unknown addresses, with no evidence pointing to direct selling or profit-taking. Possible scenarios include wallet consolidation, custody migration, security management, or preparation for a future transaction. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that they may eventually convert into seller liquidity.
What truly deserves attention is the significance of this dormant supply. BTC that has not moved for ten years is fundamentally different from coins actively circulating in the market. When such ancient supply suddenly awakens, the market's perception of liquidity changes accordingly, especially now as BTC approaches a critical resistance level, making this activity even more noteworthy 👀.
I do not view this transfer as a sell signal. Three points need to be observed going forward: first, whether more ancient wallets are awakened, as a single anomaly may be isolated, while a large-scale awakening carries more weight; second, the direction of funds, as transfers to exchanges versus private wallets have vastly different implications; third, how the price reacts, since on-chain activity is most meaningful when it resonates with market trends. $BTC
Risk warning: On-chain movements do not equal market direction. Please view rationally and be aware of volatility risks. $BTC Walsh has a dual attitude towards Bitcoin:
· On a personal level, he may be friendly: he has historically held multiple crypto assets and called Bitcoin the "new gold for people under 40," showing a high level of personal awareness.
· On a policy level, it is bearish: his primary task is to control inflation, so he must tighten liquidity (balance sheet reduction or high interest rates), which is the "nemesis" of a crypto market bull run.
Therefore, the market pays more attention to his actions as the Federal Reserve Chair (which affect liquidity) rather than his personal crypto holdings preferences. During Walsh's tenure, Bitcoin's trend may depend more on inflation data and the actual policy pace of the Federal Reserve.$CRM (Salesforce) — Closed at $252.05, up +22.58% for the day
$CRM rose 22.58% today, with an intraday high of $254.48 and a low of $231, trading volume around 55.41 million shares.
Why can a traditional enterprise software company regain such high attention because of AI?
Because the AI that enterprises are truly willing to pay for is not necessarily a chat model, but a tool that can directly connect customer data, sales processes, and business data.
$CRM's advantage lies in enterprise data and customer relationships. If AI agents can help customers improve sales efficiency, it could bring new subscription revenue.
But after rising more than 20% today, the market has already priced in a lot of optimistic expectations.
$231 is the support after the gap up, and around $254.50 is resistance. The focus going forward is not to chase the gains, but to see if stable turnover can be maintained above the gap.
I am Yuvi. The AI story has been accepted by the market; the next step is to see if customers are willing to pay for it long-term. Resetting the threshold for rate hikes + refusing to give hawkish promises to the market—this is the theme of Wash's speech tonight. Although Wash did not lock in the probability of a September rate hike, he clearly told the market that current rates are not restrictive enough for financial markets, opening up the possibility of a rate hike, especially with the strengthening of the 2% inflation target, which deeply plunged the market into concerns about a rate hike in September. After Wash's speech, the CME swap rate showed a 45.7% chance of a rate hike in September, while traders assessed the probability of a rate hike at 50%! Actually, the core of Wash's speech tonight was still to keep interest rates high in the market. Although the probability of a rate hike in September has increased, I still don't think it will actually happen, because current rates don't affect tech stocks' financing. But for real estate, retail, and other real economy companies, high financing costs are fatal. The current crisis can still be delayed, and if rates continue, these companies will inevitably have to pay a heavy price. So, as I said before, Wash's attempt to guide the market to keep rates high is not only because the data itself lacks sufficient evidence for rate cuts, but more so because Wash's task force needs time to set up a new data mix to support rate cuts. Before the Wash's working group releases data, unless inflation continues to decline, Washey may really have to maintain a hawkish stance and keep the market high in interest rates. Of course, aside from Walsh's own monetary policy, market expectations remain valid. To lower rate hike expectations, aside from August inflation, employment, and economic data, the most direct factor is that energy prices can quickly return to normal. #沃什今晚亮相杰现在的行情，追涨的人最难受，震荡里做波段的人最舒服，而真正在布局的人，往往安静得不像话。 你有没有想过，当所有人都在盯盘口、猜插针的时候，真正值钱的筹码，其实是在没人讨论的角落里被慢慢捡走的？ 我最近在看 OKB，不是因为它涨了，而是因为它还没有涨出该有的样子。这不是一个短线博弈的故事，而是一个关于"提前站队"的思考。 先说说我观察到的节奏。现在的市场，明显处于一种"高位洗筹+局部热点轮动"的混合状态，大饼在区间里来回试探，山寨则各自为战，情绪变得特别敏感，稍微有点风吹草动就集体抖动。这种阶段，最忌讳的就是频繁换仓、追着涨幅跑，因为你的对手盘，往往是比你更有耐心的资金。 回到 OKB 本身，很多人只把它当成一个交易所的平台币，觉得它跟 BTC 的联动性弱，没什么想象力。但我觉得，市场低估了 OKX 正在铺的那张网——XLayer。这玩意儿是基于 Polygon CDK 做的 Layer 2，兼容 EVM，成本低，扩展性强，最关键的是它跟交易所、钱包、DeFi 产品是深度绑定的。这不是一个孤立的技术叙事，而是一条"交易流量 + 链上应用 + 代币效用"的闭环路径。 如果 XLayer 能$SNDK the previous explosive rally driven up by concentrated funds and a short-term surge triggered a zero-support, cliff-like plunge from the historical high, with an overall drawdown steadily exceeding 99%. The market was tightly suppressed by continuous early-stage chip distribution sell-offs, and could be crushed within hours.
In the same sector, $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all accurately caught the active buying driven by the loose liquidity released in this round. The clear rhythm was clear, and the dividends from the $SNDK sector rotation were not realized, completely deviating from the overall upward momentum of the entire sector. Instead, it remains stuck in its own independent downward channel, continuing to decline along the short-term moving average. Currently, the risk of blindly entering the market without multiple rounds of full turnover and betting on a reversal has reached a very high level#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键
Cost is the real game-changer. Broadcom CEO Chen Fuyang confirmed that the inference cost of Jalapeño is about 50% lower than mainstream GPUs. SemiAnalysis estimates that the total cost of ownership per chip per hour for Jalapeño is $1.56, on par with the H100's $1.55, while Vera Rubin reaches as high as $3.61. OpenAI hardware lead Richard Ho bluntly stated that as long as production scales up and cost savings meet expectations, more inference workloads will be handled by self-developed chips.
NVIDIA remains the partner on the training side; Jalapeño is currently only responsible for inference. However, OpenAI is building a full-stack iterative closed loop of "model-chip-memory" collaboration—each generation of chips iterates synchronously with the model, something NVIDIA as a third-party supplier cannot achieve.
OpenAI has proven that leading model vendors can reduce inference costs and improve gross margins through self-developed chips. NVIDIA's general-purpose GPU dominance is being cracked from within by its largest customer.Tonight (August 28) at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's debut at Jackson Hole, with a clearly hawkish tone.
He reiterated the 2% PCE inflation target as "firm and unwavering," noting the current PCE year-on-year at 3.7%, six-month annualized at 4.1%, with no substantial improvement in core inflation, "If we can't quickly return to 2%, we still have work to do." On the economic front: unemployment rate at 4.1%, AI capital expenditure supports resilience, financial conditions are not restrictive, implying room to keep rate hikes. Communication advocates weakening forward guidance, no commitment to future path, aiming for a "quieter Fed."
Market reaction: U.S. stocks turned down, gold and silver plunged, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields surged, CME shows September rate hike probability rising above 40%. Overall, tonight is not a "tapering" signal but a hawkish reset prioritizing inflation and no easing rate cuts.$BTC $ETH $SNDK did not directly call for an immediate rate hike but completely opened the door to rate increases, rejecting the market's rate cut fantasies #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Key points from the core statement: 1. The 2% inflation target is unwavering; the current primary task is to suppress inflation, with employment as a secondary priority 2. Even if recent CPI/PCE data looks good, it does not mean the inflation trend has truly declined; short-term data should not be misleading 3. If core inflation does not clearly and quickly decline, the Fed still has work to do = implying rate hikes can continue 4. The current financial environment is not tight enough to suppress inflation 5. Abandoning forward guidance: will not give the market advance commitments on the interest rate path; everything depends on subsequent data, and the market must bear the uncertainty risk 6. Acknowledges the strong resilience of the US economy and labor market; the economy is not weak, leaving ample room for further rate hikes Why this is bearish for US stocks: 1. The market had been trading on "inflation peak, subsequent rate cuts possible," but this speech directly shattered rate cut expectations, with the probability of a September rate hike rising rapidly 2. US Treasury yields rising puts the most pressure on high-valuation tech and chip sectors (Nvidia, Hynix, memory boards); growth stock valuations are compressed 3. No policy backstop signal was given; the market loses the "Fed rescue" fantasy, risk appetite declines, and US stocks are prone to volatile weakness. Note: He did not directly announce an immediate rate hike, not an extremely aggressive hawk, so there won't be a direct crash; but the rebound will be nonThis Jackson Hole speech was hawkish as expected, with no worse-than-expected negative news, so it will not directly change the medium-term market trend but will alter the subsequent pricing logic. As you can see, the volatility was not particularly large, consistent with the characteristics of a monkey market. First, the core tone of the speech: The Fed firmly sticks to the 2% inflation target and will not relax it, emphasizing that current inflation has not substantially declined and not ruling out further rate hikes. At the same time, it significantly downplays "forward guidance"; in the future, the Fed will not provide the market with a rate roadmap in advance. Every policy adjustment will follow the latest inflation and employment data. Short-term impact: Market volatility was small because the market had long anticipated a hawkish stance, with no unexpected shocks. The short-term macro-level shoe has dropped; the sudden impact from the Fed's speech has temporarily ended. However, there is a subtle change: future market trends will no longer rely on the Fed "pre-announcing" but each inflation data release will become a market trigger. The volatility frequency of BTC and ETH will likely increase. In the medium term, the negative factors have not disappeared but have been postponed. The Fed has drawn a red line for the market: as long as inflation rebounds, the option to raise rates can restart at any time. This means the duration of high interest rates may be longer than previously imagined. Expectations for liquidity easing have been further cooled, adding a ceiling to the upward potential of crypto prices. Fortunately, the crypto market now has an important hedge—continuous net inflows into spot ETFs. Institutional spot buying provides bottom support. As long as ETF funds do not significantly retreat, a merely hawkish stance is unlikely to reverse the medium-term pattern of oscillating strength. Future market main... Dear viewers, allow me to show off a bit as usual and stretch my back. Yesterday I said that the probability of a hawkish rate hike by Walsh in September would increase by 15%, and this has already been achieved, rising from 40% to 55%.
Now the most interesting reaction is in the US Treasury market: the 30-year yield has fallen, the 10-year is fluctuating, and the 2-year yield is rising.
This indicates that while the rate hike is being priced in, the long end is voting in favor by rising. Previously, Wall Street representatives Bassett and Walsh's teacher Druckenmiller spoke out to express this view.
Thus, the doubling of the repurchase bullets that Bassett said would be fired on September 9 has not actually been fired yet, but the long end has already fallen, meaning the market side has verified that a real rate hike will not trigger the bond market. This means September can boldly proceed with the hike.
It also indirectly proves that Bassett and Walsh are playing a tacit game.
Next, keep an eye on:
September 4: August Nonfarm Payrolls
September 10: August PPI
September 11: August CPI
September 15–16: FOMC
The probability of a rate hike will gradually increase until the hike is implemented. The script is already written, let's watch as it unfolds #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ The market’s verdict on Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech?
Hawkish — but not catastrophic.
The 2Y Treasury yield jumped from roughly 4.23% to 4.30%, signaling higher rate expectations.
Yet Nasdaq didn’t collapse.
Why?
NVIDIA just showed that AI demand remains incredibly strong:
$96.2B quarterly revenue, +106% YoY.
Data Center revenue: $89B, +117% YoY.
The message is becoming clearer:
AI fundamentals are strong.
But AI valuations are now under stress.
This isn’t necessarily an “AI winter.”$ETH is more suppressed in the short term than Bitcoin due to the "hawkish" tone of Waller's speech, but there is a unique strategic point in the mid-to-long-term logic for Ethereum.
The specific impacts can be viewed in three layers:
· Heavier short-term selling pressure (leverage clearing): Ethereum's on-chain staking and DeFi lending are more sensitive to interest rates. Under expectations of tightening liquidity, funds will prioritize withdrawing from higher-risk on-chain leveraged positions, resulting in poorer price elasticity for Ethereum. Under the same bearish conditions, its decline is usually greater than Bitcoin's.
· "Deflation narrative" temporarily invalid: Previously, the market expected Ethereum's supply reduction to be beneficial, but Waller emphasized that the "primary task is fighting inflation," meaning high interest rates will persist longer. This will directly suppress on-chain activity (NFTs, DeFi trading volume), leading to prolonged low network gas fees. Once Ethereum enters an "inflation" state (issuance exceeding burn), its "ultrasound money" narrative will be weakened.
· Institutional funds as a double-edged sword: Waller personally is friendly to crypto assets (calling Bitcoin the "new gold"), but his liquidity tightening policies will slow the pace of large-scale entry by traditional institutions. However, if a rate cut cycle begins in the future, because Ethereum's staking yield (about 3-4%) is higher than U.S. Treasury bonds, it may instead become the first asset to be aggressively accumulated by institutions, forming a "bearish exhaustion" rebound.Waller's speech landed: hawkish, but not fatal
First, the conclusion: hawkish bias, but the market has already priced in most of it. Three key points from the speech:
First, inflation remains the number one enemy. Waller bluntly stated, "Summer inflation data was better than expected, but the underlying trend has not substantially improved." PCE year-over-year increase is 3.7%, far from the 2% target. He emphasized: we must be confident that inflation is falling toward the target fast enough, otherwise we still have work to do.
Second, rejection of forward guidance. Waller clearly said that in normal times forward guidance should be limited to avoid over-committing to future rate paths. He even joked, "You can call it an outline, but definitely not forward guidance." The market should not expect the Fed to "feed" it; watch the data yourself.
Third, the economy is strong, financial conditions are not tight. Corporate capital expenditures are up about 9% year-over-year, and the unemployment rate at 4.1% is at historic lows.
After the speech, the probability of a September rate hike rose above 45%, US Treasury yields surged, and gold plunged $50. The crypto market dipped slightly, with BTC falling about 0.89% within fifteen minutes to $78,620 — a much smaller drop than expected. This indicates that after short squeeze pressure eased, spot buying is indeed coming in.
Waller did not explicitly say a September hike is certain but hinted it is "not ruled out." This is not good news for risk assets, but the core drivers for BTC rising from 64,000 to 80,000 are Treasury liquidity operations and ETF inflows, not rate cut expectations. As long as these two logics hold, consolidation around 80,000 is highly probable.
The negative news is priced in; next, we look at ETF data.8.28 Evening Market Analysis｜Waller's Hawkish Speech Lands, Market Under Pressure and Pulls Back
Two events coincided tonight: $6.4 billion options expiration settlement and Waller's first speech at Jackson Hole. The tone was hawkish, no interest rate path was given, and the forward guidance was canceled, stating inflation hasn't improved substantially, the 2% target remains unchanged, and rate hikes are still possible. Upon the news, US Treasury yields rebounded, the dollar strengthened, and BTC was pushed down from around 79,500, amplifying volatility in both macro and derivatives markets.
What Waller said
He didn't directly say whether there will be a rate hike in September, but the meaning was clear: the summer inflation improvement is not enough, underlying inflation hasn't improved, and the Fed still has work to do. Financial conditions are not tight, but if inflation rebounds, further rate hikes are not ruled out. Going forward, no advance hints on rates will be given; decisions will be entirely data-dependent.
The market immediately raised the probability of a September rate hike, putting risk assets under pressure. But it must be clear—this is a short-term suppression caused by worsening liquidity expectations, not a trend reversal. ETFs are still seeing net inflows, and institutional mid-term logic remains intact.
The large option positions have been settled, and market makers have offloaded most hedging pressure. Future trends will depend more on spot capital and macro sentiment. But tonight, macro is bearish, with short-term bears dominating.
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BTC Key Levels
Resistance above at 78,800-79,200; if the rebound can't hold above, weakness continues.
Support below at 77,500-77,800; holding means high-level consolidation, breaking it points to 76,800.
ETH
More elastic than BTC, with slightly larger pullbacks. Resistance at 2,520, support at 2,440, still following the broader market.
Altcoins broadly down, MEME more volatile. 24-hour liquidation scale increased, both longs and shorts got swept, with a particularly sharp spike during the speech.
Trading Strategy
Mid-term is fine; ETFs continue inflows, hawkish speech is just a short-term shock, not a crash trend, pullbacks are shakeouts.
Short-term bearish, don't rush to bottom-fish. Don't chase rebounds under resistance; try small positions once support stabilizes, and don't hold if broken.
Focus next on US inflation data; the Fed is fully data-driven now. Weekend liquidity is weak, volatility continues; deleveraging and light positions are better than anything else.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
$BTC $ETH $SOL BTC touched 81,000 again, then got kicked back down to over 79,000.
On August 28, BTC once broke through $81,000, with a daily increase of over 3%. The script is exactly the same as before—once it hits 80,000, someone dumps.
Money keeps flowing in, but the price just can't go up.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have had net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, accumulating $2.8 billion. BlackRock's IBIT alone brought in $277.6 million in one day. The cumulative inflow since August has exceeded $3 billion, potentially becoming the largest single-month inflow since the product's launch.
On the other hand, about $270 million to $399 million worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network in the past 24 hours, with short liquidations making up the majority, about $256 million. Shorts were cleared out, but the price still hasn't held above 80,000.
What does this indicate? Someone is precisely selling above 80,000, and spot buying is absorbing the selling pressure.
The highlight tonight is Federal Reserve Chair Powell's first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Conference. The probability of a rate hike in September is 35%, and the December hike is fully priced in. If Powell leans hawkish, 80,000 might be a short-term top; if dovish, a breakout could really happen.
Tonight's speech might be more important than all the data from the past week.
$BTC $ETH The market has been waiting all day for the key point, and Warsh has officially started speaking. The most critical point is not "immediate rate hikes," but rather his clear statement that if inflation does not clearly and quickly return to 2%, the Fed "still has work to do."
💬 Tomorrow BTC: A breaks through 82,800, B continues to fluctuate between 78,000–82,800, or C falls below 78,000?
1️⃣ PCE annual growth still reaches 3.7%, Warsh believes inflation improvement has been limited in the past two years.
2️⃣ He believes the job market is stable, the economy is resilient, and broad financial conditions are hardly "restrictive."
3️⃣ The 2% inflation target remains unchanged, and short-term interest rates are still the main policy tool.
4️⃣ He did not provide a clear timeline for rate hikes; instead, he emphasized again that he dislikes excessive forward guidance.
What the bulls see: no direct announcement of rate hikes; what the bears truly worry about: the overall tone is clearly hawkish.
📊 Market judgment: neutral to bearish
I am currently not chasing longs. If BTC stabilizes above 82,800 again, I will turn bullish; if it falls below 78,000, be cautious of amplified pullbacks. $BTC $ETH