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Options whales are forcing you off the ride, and the Fed Chair is delivering the finishing blow
At 4 PM, $BTC options worth 6.4 billion USD will expire and settle.
Many see more call options than put options and become blindly optimistic—don’t celebrate too early.
The biggest pain point for this BTC options expiry is at 68000, while the current price is 79000, a full 11000 points apart.
From the option sellers’ perspective, they hope the price crashes back to 68000 to wipe out a large number of long call options; meanwhile, option buyers desperately defend the 80000 level, continuing the upward battle.
Over 500 million USD worth of call positions are stacked in the 75000-80000 range, which is a powder keg ready to explode, likely causing violent fluctuations around the expiry.
In contrast, $ETH is much milder, with the biggest pain point at 2200, spot price at 2490, only a 300 USD difference, making the intensity of the battle much weaker compared to BTC.
Comparing the two, it’s clear that the side under more pressure and more anxious today is actually the BTC bulls.
On one hand, options expiry and institutional battles are stirring the market, trying every trick to force retail traders off; on the other hand, the Fed Chair’s speech is still pending, and macro news could strike again at any moment.
The double event overlap will sharply amplify short-term volatility, so avoid heavy directional bets and prioritize risk management.
⚠️This is only a personal market interpretation and does not constitute investment advice
$BTC $ETH $BTC
Those who missed this wave don't need to rush too much; bull markets never rise in a straight line.
Reviewing the start of the 2023 bull market, there were two clear pullback buying opportunities. Using @followin_io_zh mcp, I found the key driving events at that time:
One was the Federal Reserve rate hike combined with better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, triggering a repricing of interest rates;
The other was the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, when Bitcoin briefly dropped below $20,000. The market feared a financial crisis, but it actually became one of the best entry points in this rally.
I believe similar events will occur going forward, giving us chances to buy the dip.
First is tonight's Jackson Hole meeting. If Fed Chair Powell's speech is more hawkish than expected, it could again pressure risk assets.
Second, on September 9, the U.S. Treasury will officially expand the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks. The policy has been announced in advance, and when implemented, it will likely bring positive effects and a pullback.
Get your cash ready; the market will definitely present opportunities. Tonight's crypto market will most likely hinge on Comrade Wash's words.
At 10 AM Eastern Time (22:00 tonight), Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wash will deliver a keynote speech at Jackson Hole.
The name sounds like a remote hole, but it is actually the "Davos Forum" for global central bank governors. Every August, the Fed and top global macro leaders gather in this Wyoming valley.
Historically, the Fed loves to "launch surprise attacks" at this annual meeting to set the tone for monetary policy over the next six months.
Currently, on Polymarket, the betting proportions for the September rate decision are
70% probability of holding steady, i.e., pausing rate hikes; 29% of funds bet on a 25 basis point hike, and only about 1% bet on a rate cut.
So if tonight's script is dovish (matching the 70% expectation): signaling no rate hike, the boot drops, and the market is more likely to break upward.
If hawkish (triggering the 29% expectation): a tougher-than-expected stance is bearish, and crypto might dip first as a sign of respect.
Short-term traders fear Comrade Wash playing Tai Chi too much; if the stance is ambiguous, it’s more likely to be a familiar false breakout scenario.$BTC
First signs of weakness.
So far, this rally was driven by spot buying.
This, however, has now changed.
Spot CVD is declining while perps are pushing price higher.
This makes the move less sustainable and more vulnerable to leverage flushes.
We might see a pullback soon.Tonight, the US market core focuses on only 3 key points: the Fed, US Treasuries, and crude oil.
First: Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
This is the biggest variable tonight. The 10-year US Treasury yield is currently about 4.69%, and the US dollar index is near 99. If the speech is hawkish:
Dollar ↑ + Yield ↑ → Increased pressure on gold, BTC, and tech stocks.
Conversely, if yields and the dollar both fall, gold, BTC, and Nasdaq are more likely to receive capital support.
Second: Whether BTC and gold can confirm together.
BTC is currently about $79,700, gold is near $4600. If after the speech we see:
Yield ↓ + Dollar ↓ + Gold ↑ + BTC ↑
It indicates the market is trading a looser financial environment.
If gold rises but long-term US Treasury yields also rise, it looks more like trading fiscal and dollar credit risk rather than a typical rate cut logic.
Third: Whether oil prices will reignite inflation.
Brent is about $88–89, WTI about $83. If Middle East supply risks push crude oil higher again, US Treasury yields may be driven again by inflation expectations.
Core judgment: Tonight, don’t just listen to what Warsh says; first watch how the dollar and 10-year US Treasuries move after his speech. These two markets will tell us whether gold, US stocks, and BTC should trade "tighter money" or "looser money" going forward.I believe the bottom is already in place.
Based on many reasons I have already shared.
But we have not yet "confirmed" it.
So let me tell you what I think our current status is, and the key factors needed for the bottom to be "confirmed."
There is a difference between believing the bottom is in place based on data resonance and actually obtaining confirmation.
Right now, the situation is off to a very good start in confirming the bottom, but a few more things need to happen.
Key points already solidified:
- Regaining the $67,000 level (local structure)
- Regaining the $74,400 high timeframe structure
- Regaining the 1-day 200 SMA+EMA (historically a strong confirmation of a new bull market trend).
- Regaining the 1-week 50 EMA (has always been a bottom confirmation signal)
- 1-day RSI reaching 85+ (never happened during bear market rebounds)
Remaining levels needing 100% confirmation:
- 1-week 50 SMA at $82,000
- 1-week Supertrend at $79,000 (needs a weekly close above)
- Solid higher low above $82,700
- Monthly higher high above $76,463
At this stage, Bitcoin has met 80% of the data needed to confirm the bottom.
However, to make this bottom indisputable, we need a close above $82,700.
This leaves us with several possible paths.
First, if this week we break above and rise past $82,000, then we will quickly surge to $90,000.
If we consolidate sideways below $82,700, then I expect a maximum drop to $75,000, and then ultimately we will still take out $82,700.
Achieving a monthly close above $76,463 within the next 3 days will greatly increase the probability of bottom confirmation.
At this stage, we are waiting for more factors to align, then the trend reversal will be undeniable.
So far, the start has been excellent; Bitcoin has regained those levels that have marked the end in all previous bear markets (200-day SMA+EMA = 1-week 50 EMA + 1-day RSI 85+).
This week/end of this month (roughly the same time), we will know more."August in the Past Decade of Bitcoin History"
Purely from the chart data perspective, the pattern is quite intuitive: August often serves as the "watershed" when the market shifts from consolidation to a one-sided trend.
Reviewing the performance across cycles:
Bull market start and main rise periods (2017, 2020, 2024): August generally closed with strong large bullish candles, or long lower shadows indicating a bottom test and rebound, directly igniting the Q4 market;
Bear market bottoming periods (2018, 2022, 2023): August mostly showed weak consecutive bearish candles, accelerating the retest of key moving averages to find the bottom;
Cycle peak periods (2021, 2025): August often experienced high-level stagnation or pressure with long upper shadows.
Based purely on historical candlestick patterns and cycle rhythms, August 2026 is very likely to fall into a similar startup phase rhythm, probably closing with a large bullish candle to confirm a rebound.
Without any subjective bias, this is purely a presentation of ten years of candlestick facts for analysis. Do you think this year's August close fits the historical script?$LIGHT I went long on this coin. This coin currently has a circulating market cap of about 9.3 million USD, but the total contract open interest across the network reaches as high as 23 million USD, more than twice the market cap. The big players have established a large number of long positions to manipulate it. The last time a coin had contract open interest more than twice its spot market cap was $TRB. Those who experienced TRB in 2024 know how wild it was. Capital rotation after Nvidia's earnings report was caught by the crypto circle
I am Xiao Ai, a cryptocurrency creator from OKX Planet. Recently, Nvidia's earnings report was indeed impressive, with a strong opening surge, but interestingly, AI hardware chains like Micron, SanDisk, and Hynix all plunged. A familiar script played out again: the leader benefits, capital rotates between highs and lows, high-level storage chips loosen, and profit-taking occurs on the back of good news.
Under this capital style shift, our crypto circle stands tall. BTC remains steady near the 80,000 mark, and ETH has also broken through 2,500. On the surface, it looks like a short squeeze driving the rally, but deeper down, institutions are quietly adjusting asset allocations. Spot ETFs have recently seen continuous net inflows, macro liquidity expectations have eased, combined with short covering, and buying momentum has pushed prices up.
However, we need to stay calm when watching the market. BTC slightly pulled back after the surge, with large options expiring concentratedly, amplifying the battle at key levels. Bulls and bears are fiercely contesting in the last few days, with frequent spikes. K33 data shows this rally contains a large short squeeze component, and as the squeeze effect weakens, the willingness to take profits at high levels is increasing.
Whether the market trend will recover or just experience a phase rebound depends on whether incremental funds can continue to absorb selling pressure at high levels. AI hardware divergence and non-sovereign assets taking over indicate the overall direction is correct, but short-term rhythm is changing. If BTC cannot hold near 80,000, a pullback and consolidation are normal.
Sharing views on US stock tokens for rational discussion, everyone please consider carefully. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 $BTC Wash's Jackson Hole speech may become a key turning point for global assets, with the market's core focus on whether the Federal Reserve will continue to keep the option of rate hikes, which will reshape the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields as the macro pricing anchors for crypto assets.
Currently, core PCE inflation has not yet met the target, and internal policy disagreements within the Fed are increasing. If the speech leans hawkish and retains the possibility of rate hikes, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will rise, putting pressure on Bitcoin, Ethereum, leveraged assets like MSTR, and smaller coins like MEME, which will see larger pullbacks. ETFs may also experience capital outflows. If the rhetoric is ambiguous and maintains a data-dependent neutral stance, crypto is likely to enter a volatile, repeatedly spiking market, making it difficult to establish a sustained trend.
If dovish signals are released and the rate hike option is removed, crypto will likely rebound, but this does not directly equate to a major bull market.
It is important to note that although Wash is relatively friendly towards crypto innovation, controlling inflation remains the primary goal. Industry goodwill will not bring liquidity easing; macro factors aside, industry positives can only temporarily offset negatives. Key indicators to watch are the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the dollar index. Beware of false breakouts from news events, reduce leverage to cope with rising volatility. Tonight's speech is more about setting the tone for the September FOMC meeting; the real trend will depend on subsequent inflation and employment data.
I will share my operational strategy on the week; choosing wisely over just effort to stay on track!
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 DEFI TOKENS ARE FLYING BUT IS THE MOVE REAL?
BTC’s ~27% jump in 8 days sparked a major DeFi rally, with tokens like $ENA, $AAVE and $CVX outperforming BTC.
But here’s the catch: much of the move may be driven by short covering, leverage, low float and rising TVL not stronger fundamentals
DeFi fees remain well below the 2025 peak
Prices recovered faster than revenues. So which tokens can actually sustain the rally? 👀📈
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #DailyChainlink's strategic reserve has increased by 92K $LINK, valued at approximately $1.1M, bringing the total reserve holdings to 5.67M LINK, valued at about $66.44M. However, LINK's price did not immediately rise following this news, as such an increase in holdings does not automatically equate to token burning.
But this type of verifiable reserve remains a very good observation window. Ajian believes this is more worth tracking long-term than simply announcing buybacks, because it can form a continuous balance sheet, allowing the market to track exactly how much native assets the protocol has accumulated and whether protocol revenue is flowing back.$BTC has dropped back below 80,000 again
After falling from 81,266
Each rebound is weaker than the last
Now hovering around 79,779
Neither up nor down, grinding on nerves
No volume explosion, no panic
Just slowly dropping
If 78,000 doesn't hold
77,000 or even 76,000 will come quickly
This is what longs fear the most
Missed the big surge, caught all the pullbacks
——
$ETH is weaker, back below 2,500 again
Tried several times but can't hold
When BTC pulls back, it follows down
Now hovering around 2,480
If 2,450 breaks
2,400 will likely be tested again
ETH is just following the trend now
No own rhythm
——
$BEAT keeps falling, can't stop at all
Dropped straight from 0.7 to 0.35
Down 50%
No decent rebound at all
This pattern means the market has abandoned it
The more it falls, the fewer buyers
Liquidity is almost drained
Even if there's a short-term rebound
Most likely just a spike
Hard to truly reverse
——
Now about my positions
A few days ago my BTC long was stopped out
Opened at 80,766, stop loss at 79,435
Lost 5.78U
Now flat and watching
Waiting for clear direction before acting
In this market, not losing is winning
Protecting principal first
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 ETH, with less than one-fifth the size of Bitcoin (18.8%), managed to consume nearly as much ETF funds as BTC ($234 million vs. $242 million). This huge contrast in fund-attracting density sends a strong signal that institutional funds are tilting toward Ethereum. Core Data and Market Logic Breakdown Terrifying Capital Efficiency: The inflow ratio is 96.8%, indicating that institutional allocation demand for Ethereum has entered an accelerated phase, and the marginal effect of capital inflows is amplifying. Market Formation Poised for Release: "High-level consolidation with rising lows" is a typical sign of a bull market relay or breakout. Chips are repeatedly consolidated at key positions, while floating selling pressure is gradually eroded by a continuous stream of compliant incremental funds. Emotional tipping point: Even a top player who always focuses on risk control bluntly said, "If it weren't for trading discipline, I'd want to go long," indicating that from a professional trading perspective, the current profit-loss ratio and market structure are already very attractive. 8.28 ETH trading data over the past 20 days [2026/8/9] $ETH Change: +0.20% Amplitude: 0.77% Price: 1926.39 Turnover: 41,194,091.43 High: 1,927.24 Low: 1,912.41 [2026/8/10] $ETH Change: -2.56% Amplitude: 3.46% Price: 1,877.09 Turnover: 14,250,465.87 Highest price: 1$ETH Ether has long followed BTC closely; is there a day when they will suddenly part ways?
Conclusion first: There will definitely be phases of decoupling. This has happened many times historically, but most of the time it is only short-term divergence, and it is difficult for them to completely go in opposite directions for a long time.
Usually, BTC and ETH rise and fall highly in sync because both are influenced by macro factors such as Federal Reserve policies, overall market risk appetite, and capital flows. BTC is the market benchmark, and ETH passively follows. But their fundamental roles are completely different:
- BTC: Digital gold, simple narrative, mostly used by institutions for asset allocation and inflation hedging
- ETH: Smart contract public chain, pricing also affected by on-chain ecosystem, upgrades, RWA, DeFi, separate regulatory news, and ETH-ETF specific capital flows
Independent price movements generally occur in these four scenarios:
1. Standalone positive catalysts: such as major ETH upgrades, RWA sector booms, or huge single-day net inflows into ETH-ETF, even if BTC is sideways, ETH surges on its own.
2. Standalone negative shocks: regulations targeting the Ethereum ecosystem alone, where BTC remains unaffected but ETH falls independently.
3. Market style rotation: capital flows out of defensive BTC into growth-oriented public chains, entering a small bull rotation, with the ETH/BTC ratio steadily rising.
4. Extreme liquidity crisis: during market panic sell-offs, BTC as hard currency is prioritized for support, while ETH drops more sharply.
Many people misunderstand decoupling as BTC falling and ETH rising.
In reality, divergence comes in two forms:
✅ Positive decoupling: BTC sideways or slightly down, ETH strengthens alone
❌ Negative decoupling: BTC stable, ETH alone gets hammered
But one must recognize: when there is a global major negative event or black swan, most of the time both will fall sharply together; it is rare for one to crash while the other rallies strongly against the trend.
Looking at the current market, macro events like tonight’s Jackson Hole speech still impact both BTC and ETH simultaneously, so they will likely move together today. True divergence usually comes from Ethereum-specific news catalysts.
Going forward, pay attention to one indicator: the ETH/BTC exchange rate. A sustained rise means ETH is outperforming BTC; a sustained decline means ETH is weakening. When this indicator starts showing an independent trend, it signals the beginning of divergence between the two.
$BTC $ETHTech stocks and cryptocurrencies overall remain in a risk-appetite state. Tonight's risk point lies in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first important speech at the Jackson Hole conference at 22:00 Beijing time. If the market can avoid this risk and experience a wave of decline, I will continue to increase holdings in some $INTC $NBIS and $AMZN
All I can say is, the more I study them, the more optimistic I am — these good things just take time. For Bitcoin, stick to the original plan: once the price reaches $75, double the large position. I've considered buying spot first, then opening some crypto leverage—if Bitcoin continues to drop sharply, I'll buy some after bottoming out and rebounding to supplement the margin of crypto leverage, and that's enough. Overall, I'm still very optimistic, especially about US stocks. I'm not optimistic about the storage industry, but Nvidia has clearly warned: memory supply is becoming a growth bottleneck. The company even said that under current supply constraints, demand cannot be fully met. But all storage vendors are aggressively expanding capital expenditures, and prices have already priced in the impact of forward transactions. SanDisk and Kioxia announced yesterday that by 2032, they will jointly invest over $31 billion in Japan, including building a new NAND flash factory in northern Shanghai, with a planned investment of about $11.3 billion. This is also why I am quite bearish on $SNDK.
SK Hynix has recently performed exceptionally strongly, as SK Hynix further stated yesterday that the global memory shortage could continue until 2030. The company plans to do so in 2030The changes in ETF funds over the past two days have also been turbulent beneath the surface.
Institutions are fiercely competing, and opinions are diverging!
Fidelity has started selling coins, Grayscale has reduced holdings for two consecutive days, but BlackRock still maintains steady net inflows. This indicates that institutions do have differences, but it’s not a retreat yet. The BTC spot ETF overall still maintains net inflows, just not as strong as before.
ETH ETFs are also still seeing capital inflows, which I value quite a bit. Especially recently, Ethereum has been holding up well. If funds continue to flow in, its subsequent elasticity could be even greater than Bitcoin’s.
So I won’t turn bearish just because Fidelity and Grayscale sold for two days straight. Tonight, the focus is on how the market digests the Federal Reserve’s signals.
My judgment remains clear: BTC and ETH may first experience a slight short-term dip and consolidation to wash out sentiment, followed by a small-scale trend rally.
$BTC $ETH #财报观察员：AI demand spreads from hardware to software
The boss has something to say
This AI earnings season is basically wrapping up. On the hardware side, Nvidia and Marvell continue to validate demand for computing power and network connectivity. On the software side, CrowdStrike, Salesforce, and Okta have also delivered respectable results. Synopsys is an exception; its stock price came under pressure after the earnings report, and the market is starting to be selective.
The market no longer questions whether AI demand exists; the question is which companies can convert investments into new orders, recurring revenue, and free cash flow. If improvements on the software side continue, they will be more stable than hardware purchasing cycles, because subscription revenue is not affected by order cycles like chip shipments are. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The focus of discussion has shifted from "whether there is" to "who can deliver." Both hardware and software sides are improving, and the breadth of AI commercialization is expanding.
On the market front, Bitcoin is fluctuating around 81,000, and all long positions from 78,500 to 80,000 have been closed. Wash's speech is tonight; no heavy bets before the direction is clear.
The above analysis is timely; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck.SBI is really reaching out to Southeast Asia this time, planning to spend about $270 million to acquire a 20% stake in Indonesian brokerage Ajaib,
On the surface, it's an investment in a brokerage, but I think what they really want is the channel and users.
After all, Ajaib has over 20 million retail investors, and SBI plans to launch the yen stablecoin JPYSC,
Along with building a cross-border settlement network, having an existing financial platform and users is definitely much easier than starting from scratch.
Moreover, SBI has recently been investing in exchanges and digital securities, and the direction is becoming clearer:
It's not just about playing with a few crypto assets, but about laying out a set of on-chain financial infrastructure in advance.
Stablecoins + RWA + cross-border payments, there might really be something in the future.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #Revolut推出欧元稳定币EURR Tonight, the real market switch is not in the candlesticks but in the Federal Reserve Chair's speech.
Kevin Warsh will deliver the Jackson Hole speech at around 22:00 Beijing time. The market's main concern is not whether he is "hawkish" or "dovish," but whether he will clearly state what inflation conditions will trigger a rate hike and how the Fed views the rising long-term US Treasury yields.
My observation framework:
If the speech emphasizes inflation risks and the possibility of rate hikes, the dollar and US Treasury yields may strengthen, and $BTC and $ETH will face pressure at high levels.
If the speech remains balanced and eases market worries about consecutive rate hikes, BTC may retest the key area near $83,000.
The market has already risen in advance; tonight's focus is not on whether there is good news but whether the actual statement can exceed current expectations.
Do you think the biggest surprise tonight will be more hawkish or more moderate than expected?
$BTC $ETH
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $HYPE 目前已经在回调了。 我不认为它还能继续上涨，这个币之前涨得实在太多了。 我认为，它应该是要下跌了。 有两方面的原因。 一方面是因为今天晚上美联储主席会发表讲话，有可能会对市场造成冲击；另一方面是因为它本身的数据过于利空。 所以我认为，它应该是要回调了。 我目前已经做空了$HYPE ，我相信我自己的判断。 —————————————————— 我们先谈一下美联储主席今晚的情况。 美联储主席沃什将要在杰克逊霍尔央行会议发表讲话，这是他第一次在这个会议上讲话。 在2022年，上一任美联储主席在杰克逊霍尔央行会议上讲话之后，标普是大跌了3.44％，并在随后的一个月里下跌了近10%。 我不知道今天晚上会议之后会怎样，或许有可能市场会突然暴跌。 在这种时候，我认为可以提前开一些空单。 —————————————————— 我们再来看一下$HYPE 的合约数据。 我们可以发现，它的合约持仓量已经到了一个相高的位置，合约多空比也已经跌到了一个相当低的位置。 这种时候，我认为是没有理由再去做多这个币，做多的风险实在是太大了。 而且，如果我们再去看一下它过去七天的收入，就可以发现现在这个市值完$SOL is at 107.64, up 5.32% in 24h, +22.30% in 7 days, +46.40% in 30 days. This is the strongest gain in the entire market. ETF single-day inflow is 60.91M, the largest this year, totaling $1.26B. Charles Schwab announced it will list SOL/AVAX/LINK trading, traditional brokers are really joining.
Last week I talked with a developer working on the Solana ecosystem, he said SOL's on-chain fee revenue has already matched Ethereum's, with x402 transaction volume being 8 times that of Base. The team is not just making empty promises, they are truly making money. The SIMD-0286 deflation vote also passed with 68.77% support, reducing annual token issuance by $1.4-1.5 billion, and increasing the burn rate from 650 SOL/day to 7,500-9,000.
Supply contraction narrative combined with ETF inflows, a dual engine driving growth. If 100 holds, expect 110-$115. Mid-term, there is still room for SOL to catch up with ETH in market cap.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $LIT might be seriously undervalued 👀
If LIT can eventually build even 1/5 of HYPE’s business, the theoretical benchmark comes out around $16.5.
At ~$3.50 today, the market is only pricing in roughly 21% of that benchmark.
But there’s a catch: LIT still has relatively low monetization efficiency, and future unlocks could create dilution. So realistically, the market may value it closer to $5–$12 in a neutral-to-optimistic scenario.
The key level to watch? $5.
#DailyOrbit The topic of Sun Yuchen and Jing Tian has exploded across the internet, with many people focusing on $TRX, betting on this wave of popularity to take off directly.
But be clear: trending search traffic does not equal a long-term price increase logic for the coin.
In the short term, speculative retail investors may follow the trend and enter the market, possibly causing a pulse-like surge, but the scandal's heat comes quickly and fades just as fast. Past hot market trends like this mostly spike on news and quickly fall back once the hype fades.
The intentions behind this are quite clear:
On one hand, they use public opinion in dispute negotiations to gain a favorable position; on the other hand, they spend costs to create full-network exposure to attract the attention of off-market retail investors.
TRX chips are concentrated, and after the hype is raised, the main players can easily complete their sell-off amid the excitement, making it very easy for retail investors chasing highs to get stuck holding the bag.
Whether TRON can sustain a continuous big rise ultimately depends on the overall market environment; relying solely on celebrity scandals cannot support a major market rally.
Don't be brainwashed by trending searches to rush in blindly. You can only play short-term with a very small position in the hype game, take profits when you see gains, and never hold long-term stubbornly.#BTC surge then pullback, options expiry amplifies key level battles
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. $BTC surged to around 81,000 then dropped back to 79,000. Despite the volatile swings, essentially this is a mechanical play by market makers gamma hedging before today's $6.4 billion options expiry—most Calls are stacked at 75K and 80K, so the price is being pulled within this range; when it rises, some sell, when it falls, some buy.
Mid-term, I remain bullish, but I won’t add positions on these key level pulses. If 80K doesn’t hold, it’s just a consolidation shakeout; hold the base position firmly if 75K doesn’t break. Wait until Friday’s expiry positions roll off and volatility compresses before deciding the direction.
Short-term, stuck getting slapped left and right within the range, our mid-term advice is simple: hold your base position, don’t get shaken out by expiry noise, and only consider chasing after a real break above 80K.
$ETH
$OKB #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Walsh makes his debut tonight at Jackson Hole, and the market is waiting for a clear policy framework from him
At 10 PM Beijing time tonight, Walsh will take the stage at Jackson Hole for the first time as the Federal Reserve Chair. The background is a bit complicated: PCE is still at 3.7%, initial jobless claims have dropped to 203,000, the 30-year US Treasury yield is fluctuating above 5%, and the Treasury is still intervening in the bond market. Simply put, the market wants to know which way he leans, but no one dares to bet yet.
A quick search shows Walsh hasn't spoken yet; we have to wait until 10 PM tonight. But just waiting for his speech, the market has already started moving — $BTC has fallen from around 81,500 to 79,400, the 80,000 level lost and regained, clearly risk-averse funds are pulling back first.
The core question now is: can Walsh clearly explain the "reaction function" — at what inflation level will rates be raised? How weak does employment have to be to cut rates? If he continues to be vague, US Treasury yields may be pushed even higher; if he states clearly, the market will have a new anchor.
The direction is clear; it all depends on how Walsh speaks.#财报观察员：AI demand spreads from hardware to software Over the past two years, the AI market has been almost entirely supported by the hardware chain—NVIDIA GPUs on the computing side have been in short supply, data center business surged 117%; storage side exploded simultaneously, Micron's AI data center business grew over 6 times year-on-year with gross margin exceeding 80%, SK Hynix's HBM4 shipments scaled massively with operating profit up 557% year-on-year, SanDisk's data center business increased 64% quarter-on-quarter, continuously exceeding expectations. Market pricing has been fully concentrated on computing infrastructure, while the software side has long been burdened with doubts of "burning money and difficulty monetizing," with valuations under continuous pressure.
This year's Q2 earnings reports are breaking this pattern. Hardware remains strong, but the collective breakout on the software side is even more noteworthy: Microsoft's Copilot paid seats surpassed 30 million, Azure AI continues to drive cloud revenue; Salesforce and CrowdStrike earnings exceeded expectations, with stock prices rising over 20% in a single day; Snowflake and MongoDB AI-related order growth far exceeded market expectations.
The underlying logic is clear: AI large models are moving from "demo-level" to "production-level." In the past two years, the entire industry "bought computing power and built infrastructure," benefiting computing and storage hardware first; now that the computing foundation is gradually taking shape, enterprises are starting to purchase AI applications, data governance, and other software tools to convert computing power into actual output, with industry chain profits passing downstream.
The market is voting with its feet; the previous AI hardware-only rally is shifting, the software sector is seeing valuation recovery, and the AI industry is officially entering a full-chain diffusion stage from a single-point breakout.Capital is shifting from hardware to software, with earnings reports confirming the implementation of incremental enterprise AI budgets, but the rapid valuation surge and the sustainability of subsequent IT budgets constitute the current core contradiction.
Market facts show that $CRM surged 22.6% in a single day, with quarterly revenue reaching $11.3 billion. Agentforce and Data360's ARR is close to $3.9 billion, with year-over-year growth exceeding 210%, establishing monetization on the software side.
During the same period, $CRWD rose 20.5%, with quarterly revenue of $1.47 billion and new ARR growing 51% year-over-year, confirming that increased AI Agent deployment directly drives rigid budgets for security and access governance.
In terms of driving factors, the explosive growth of actual ARR is the strongest momentum. $OKTA's RPO grew 17% year-over-year, further confirming the follow-up logic of IT software spending across the industry.
The bullish scenario trigger condition is Salesforce's full-year revenue reaching the upper guidance range of $46.1 to $46.4 billion, along with continued expansion of enterprise AI software budgets; the invalidation signal is a significant slowdown in net new ARR growth.
The bearish scenario trigger condition is a short-term surge excessively overdrawing premium, and if subsequent enterprise IT budget increments fall short of expectations, profit-taking at high levels will cause a pullback; the invalidation signal is quarterly revenue growth falling below 10%.
The consolidation scenario depends on the market's digestion of high valuation multiples, with capital needing to find a new pricing balance between hardware profit-taking and software chasing.
The most critical observation variables in the next 7 days are the high turnover rate of software heavyweight stocks and the continuity of institutional capital net inflows in the software sector.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配The memory cycle may be changing—but a “shortage lasting until 2030” is not enough to prove it. What caught my attention is how much of the future demand has already been locked in through contracts: • Micron: 16 multi-year “take-or-pay” Strategic Cooperation Agreements (SCAs), covering about 20% of DRAM shipments and one-third of NAND shipments under existing agreements. • SanDisk: 8 long-term agreements covering about 50% of bit volume in fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal 2028. • Nvidia + SK Hynix: a multi-year memory cooperation agreement related to next-generation AI infrastructure. This changes the question. I no longer ask: “Is memory demand strong?” I now ask: “How long is the demand visibility period—and how quickly can supply respond?” Because these two lead to very different outcomes: Long demand visibility + slow supply response = structural shortage. Long demand visibility + fast supply response = delayed oversupply. The interesting point is not whether memory is tight now. It’s whether Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Kioxia/SanDisk can increase effective bit capacity faster than customers have locked in future demand. If supply catches up first, this is still a cycle. If contracted demand stays ahead of supply for years to come, the market may eventually have to value these companies differently.#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 Today, the South Korean composite index KOSPI plummeted 1.79%, with foreign investors net selling over 20 trillion KRW in the Seoul market in a single day. Even though Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix put up 16 trillion KRW in buyback funds to support the market, it couldn't stop the brutal sell-off.
The trigger for this crash is a highly damaging new chip tariff regulation being brewed in Washington.
According to the draft circulating in the market, the tariff hammer will not only directly target semiconductor bare chips but will also extend downward to complete products such as data center servers and laptops that house these chips. Even harsher, the duty-free quota might be forcibly linked to the scale of companies' factory and production line construction in the U.S.
This move, meant to shake the mountain and scare the tiger, directly hits the softest spot of South Korea's tech industry.
South Korea's twin giants hold the majority of the world's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM production capacity, which is indispensable blood for the entire AI server chain. But once the tariff threat materializes, it forces non-U.S. semiconductor giants to choose between two extremely painful paths: either endure tariffs and suffer a sharp drop in profit margins or be forced to pour massive capital expenditures into U.S. domestic manufacturing to bear the extremely high production costs.
The flight of foreign capital has poured cold water on the fervent AI industry chain. The semiconductor boom has never been a fairy tale in a vacuum; geopolitical tariff chains can reconstruct the global supply chain's profit model at any time.
As traditional tech assets begin to face the heavy barriers of sovereign tariffs, do you think this supply chain friction will accelerate global liquidity seeking safe havens in borderless assets? This morning, someone who bet that the US would invade Iran before 2027 reversed and shorted crude oil.
It's not that they saw peace coming, it seems more like their position couldn't hold anymore.
TradingBeats (an on-chain monitoring platform) tracked that the related address 0x40f closed 175,900 WTI crude oil long contracts yesterday, with a transaction amount of $14.253 million, losing $282,000. On the same side, Polymarket (a prediction market platform) saw the share betting on an Iran invasion cut by 75%.
Both sides closing together is not an ordinary portfolio adjustment. The original logic of this combination was: the closer the war risk, the stronger crude oil support, and the more valuable the prediction market odds. But crude oil didn't hold up, and the prediction market stopped giving floating profits.
Reversing to short is not a new view, it looks more like a reactive move after the old position died.
What I’m watching is not the $282,000 loss, but who took the other side when those $14.25 million long contracts were closed. A single large order can shake short-term sentiment but can't sustain a trend.
My judgment: don’t read this trade as smart money shorting crude oil. It’s just a war trade position that surrendered first.NVIDIA earnings release: Why couldn't it save storage?
I believe many people, after seeing NVIDIA's financial report, bought into storage. Those who bought early profited and thought it could still rise; those who bought later thought it was a pullback and also bought at the bottom. In short, everyone thought it would go up.
Originally, NVIDIA was expected to be the savior of the AI market. Logically, NVIDIA's earnings exceeded expectations, proving to the market the viability of the AI path. Storage, as one of the market's default downstream sectors, surprisingly seemed like it was just riding the positive momentum to boost shipments, yet it couldn't outperform the broader market. What exactly is going on?
First, let's take $SNDK as an example. Indeed, yesterday around 4 PM, SanDisk experienced a surge, and many expected it to reach 1600, but unexpectedly it fell back. Some thought it was a pullback to buy more, but it kept dropping lower.
Actually, although it seems NVIDIA is driving AI growth, why hasn't storage kept up? There is a very important logic: the market is highly focused on AI growth now, but storage prices are getting more expensive. NVIDIA is already under pressure from rising memory prices, which in turn is squeezing NVIDIA's profit margins. For NVIDIA to make more profit, storage prices must drop; otherwise, it will bring higher costs to NVIDIA and even AI development. Once storage prices drop, it inevitably affects storage price increases.
Of course, this doesn't mean the storage fundamentals are bad. After all, storage currently has no substitutes, and AI development actually brings demand to it. What we need to watch now is whether storage can timely increase volume and stop falling. #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
⚡Big night! Wash appears at Jackson Hole, can the market get a clear roadmap?
Latest data
The market is generally in a wait-and-see mode, $BTC at 80310, ETH at 2490, SOL at $105.5, volatility contracts slightly rising, funds are quietly waiting for the speech to land, not daring to heavily bet on direction in advance.
Market consensus
Everyone is hoping for a straightforward interest rate guidance: how to view inflation, how long to endure high rates. But most institutions predict Wash will likely continue a data-driven style, won’t give a definite timetable, probably will dodge specifics, only discuss the big framework, avoiding concrete operations from September to December.
Underlying logic analysis
This time it’s not just about hearing rate hikes or cuts, but confirming the Fed’s new policy framework. Hawkish = expectations of tighter liquidity rise, risk assets under pressure; dovish = easing expectations return, BTC and highly elastic SOL more likely to strengthen; neutral and vague will lead to wide fluctuations where both positive and negative factors fail to materialize, with more spikes. In short: the speech sets not just a one-day market move, but the macro tone for the coming period.
Personal view (personally leaning towards a gradual bull market return, just personal opinion, not investment advice)
No betting on one-sided moves tonight, keep short-term positions light. Hold spot base positions firmly, wait for clear signals before new layouts. The closer the market gets to major events, the more you need to control your hands, don’t get dragged by intraday volatility. HYPE really has something going on this time, surging straight up to $86 to hit a new all-time high. You can no longer view it with the old "platform token" perspective. Its current logic is closer to a core asset in on-chain finance—the more active the trading, the more fees collected, the more abundant the buyback funds, effectively giving the platform a booster that creates a positive feedback loop.
The most critical shift happened after the launch of HyperEVM and HIP-3, turning HYPE from "something you can buy and sell" into "something you must have to participate." The project team requires staking HYPE to deploy contract markets within the ecosystem, transforming it from a mere trading target into an ecosystem access ticket. Demand is no longer driven by speculation but by genuine necessity.
The news also supports this: Wintermute has reduced its short positions to $80 million, easing short-term selling pressure significantly. On the other side, a whale suspected to be connected to a16z recently spent 36 million USDC to buy over 440,000 HYPE at an average price of $81.6, all of which was staked. Yesterday, ETF net inflows also reached $24.42 million, indicating that institutional consensus is gradually forming.
Of course, with such a rapid short-term rise, there are definitely many profit-takers, and some pullbacks are normal. But looking ahead, if contract users can be guided toward spot and on-chain application layers, HYPE's value support will shift from pure trading volume competition to a true ecological moat. If this logic holds, $86 might really not be the end. However, as always when chasing highs, it's better to wait for a pullback before entering rather than betting heavily at the market's hottest moment.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款
"$270 million to acquire Indonesian gateway: How a Japanese financial giant is reconstructing Southeast Asia cross-border settlement with stablecoins"
A strategic investment of up to $270 million has ignited the venture capital circle with the alliance between Japanese financial giant SBI and Indonesia's Ajaib.
What SBI acquired is not only the commission flow of an internet brokerage but also a comprehensive on-chain clearing network leading to a market of 300 million people.
Traditional SWIFT wire transfers charge 3% to 5% fees and take several days, leaving a huge commercial vacuum for compliant stablecoins.
Leveraging Ajaib's mature enterprise-level OTC channel, SBI seamlessly integrates the Japanese yen stablecoin JPYSC into real-world commercial settlements.
Traditional finance going overseas has entered a battle for clearing infrastructure positioning, and the monopoly pattern of Asian cross-border payments is being rapidly dismantled. $USDC In-depth review of the Bitcoin options expiration market
After the expiration of Bitcoin options worth $6.4 billion, the "anchor" that firmly pinned Bitcoin at the 80,000 mark was completely removed.
The Friday settlement price was $79,682, completing the market clearing.
The vast majority of retail investors misjudged this $6.4 billion Bitcoin options delivery and had no idea how fragile the order book was.
Previously, the market was stable because market makers hedged themselves by forcefully using hedge orders to keep the price tightly around the strike price.
Now that these hundreds of billions in chips have been cleared, market makers have withdrawn their positions, and the depth of open orders in the market has been drained.
All the hedging chips at key price levels like 75,000 and 80,000 have disappeared,
resulting in a light market where even a small amount of capital can forcibly trigger strong volatility.
So the core price anchor that kept Bitcoin stable at the 80,000 level is completely broken.
In the past, Bitcoin could develop an independent trend relying on the internal derivatives capital game, forming a closed loop.
Now that all internal chip constraints have disappeared, the crypto community's own capital no longer dictates the market.
Then who does?
Bitcoin is now completely exposed, entering the Federal Reserve's macroeconomic game, firmly becoming a subsidiary of macro trends.
Without market makers providing a buffer, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the liquidity faucet's tightness are the only core pricing factors going forward.
In other words, the Fed's liquidity faucet opening and closing is the real market mover.
The real intense volatility is just beginning.
Retail investors who blindly chase rises and falls will most likely be repeatedly thrown off the market and harvested back and forth.英伟达的财报又一次让市场屏住了呼吸。盘后超过五个百分点的涨幅，不只是数字层面的欢腾，更像是一种确认：AI叙事并未退潮，而是进入了一个更看重兑现能力的阶段。🍃 这份财报最打动人的地方，或许不在营收数字本身，而在于公司对自身定位的悄然重塑。黄仁勋那句“算力就是收入”，把GPU从硬件提升到了生产要素的高度。当token被描述为“有生产力、能赚钱”时，AI就不再是实验室里的浪漫幻想，而是一张张正在被打印出来的订单。这种从概念到现金流的转变，是行业走向成熟的标志。 更值得玩味的是管理层对毛利率的坦诚。三季度指引维持在74%的高位，但四季度预计会回落到71%到72%之间，原因直指内存价格的上涨。这其实是一个颇具深意的信号：当算力的瓶颈从芯片本身转移到存储颗粒时，整个产业链的利润分配正在发生微妙迁移。对于关注存储赛道的朋友来说，这或许是一个值得留意的结构性变化。💡 现金流方面，英伟达一边在季度内拿出约260亿美元用于回购和分红，一边手里还握着近990亿美元的授权额度。这种“大手笔撒钱”的底气，恰恰来自于AI业务强劲的造血能力。更值得注意的是，公司已经不再满足于做一家单纯的芯片供应商。独立AI基金#银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款
What does this mean for the crypto world?
In the short term, banks taking a two-pronged approach is equivalent to official recognition of the stablecoin sector. Banks used to treat stablecoins as adversaries, but now they want to issue their own. For USDT and USDC, competition will definitely intensify, but the sector itself is also expanding.
In the long term, the real concern is tokenized deposits. Essentially, they replicate the function of stablecoins within the banking system but retain the advantages of bank deposits. If this system works, scenarios like cross-border payments, corporate settlements, and inter-institution transfers can be handled by banks themselves without going through USDT and USDC. The core application of stablecoins—payments and settlements—will be largely reclaimed by banks.
Here are my thoughts.
These two routes banks are taking boil down to a battle to defend "on-chain cash." Stablecoins are open-source and accessible to anyone; tokenized deposits are closed and exclusive to banks. In the short term, stablecoins have a first-mover advantage, but banks hold trillions in deposits and regulatory licenses. Once consortium chains are operational, their momentum will be significant.
The real moat for USDT and USDC isn’t technology but first-mover advantage and liquidity network effects. Banks can’t catch up just by issuing a coin; they need to build the entire payment network.
This battle is just beginning. For traders, the stablecoin sector is shifting from a duopoly to competition among multiple giants. Watching the market share changes of USDT and USDC is more valuable than just watching price.
$BTC 🚨 DEFI TOKENS ARE FLYING BUT IS THE MOVE REAL?
BTC’s ~27% jump in 8 days sparked a major DeFi rally, with tokens like $ENA, $AAVE and $CVX outperforming BTC.
But here’s the catch: much of the move may be driven by short covering, leverage, low float and rising TVL not stronger fundamentals.
DeFi fees remain well below the 2025 peak.
Prices recovered faster than revenues. So which tokens can actually sustain the rally? 👀📈
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Wash's Debut｜Don't Wait for Easing, Just Give Direction
Wash's speech tonight was clearly hawkish, directly shattering the market's rate cut fantasies. The market reaction was immediate: US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, US stock futures and the crypto market surged then fell back, with capital voting with its feet.
US Stocks: Short-term not bullish, mainly volatile and divergent
High interest rates will persist longer, high-valuation tech growth stocks face significant pressure, don't expect a broad rally. AI fundamentals remain, but only focus on earnings-validated targets. In practice, reduce positions on rallies, don't chase highs, only engage in selective structural opportunities. $SNDK
Crypto: Short-term neutral to bearish, abandon the fantasy of immediate new highs $BTC $ETH
Rate cut expectations dashed, risk asset environment tightening, BTC mainly range-bound and volatile. Altcoin hype is fading, spikes are easily dumped. The ETF long-term cycle logic remains intact, but the turning point hasn't arrived, don't overweight to bet on a bull market prematurely.
✅My practical conclusion:
Overall defensive approach, no all-in, no leverage.
Reduce US stock positions on rebounds; small crypto positions for swing trades, avoid altcoins.
Wait for clear signals from CPI and September rate decisions, don't fight the Fed
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ BTC Day-of-Week Effect Data Confirmed 📊
Pulled data from December 2020 to now plus separate stats for 2026, the results are astonishing:
📊 Nearly 6 years long-term cycle (2020.12-2026.8)
Overall balanced, fluctuating around 50%:
✅ Wednesday +233 (win rate 51%) strongest
❌ Thursday -191 (win rate 44%) weakest
Weekend volatility low, slight gains, suitable for light positions
Extreme divergence in 2026:
✅ Monday +512 (win rate 62%) legendary
✅ Friday +253 (win rate 56%) steady
❌ Thursday -477 (win rate 49%)
❌ Tuesday -294 (win rate 35%) major loss
❌ Sunday -81 (win rate 41%)
Single-day win rate difference reaches 27 percentage points!
Focus on long opportunities Monday and Friday
・Avoid going against the trend on Tuesday and Thursday
・Reduce operations on weekends
・Statistical probability ≠ law, but large samples are worth referencing #$BTC $ETH Bitcoin rebounded rapidly and approached $80,000 again, and the options market began to send more positive signals. Open interest (OI) in options has risen in sync with BTC prices, now approaching 550,000 BTC, indicating a clear recovery in derivatives market capital and participation. Meanwhile, DVOL has surged sharply to around 41, indicating a renewed demand for volatility, but still well below the previous high volatility range above 50–60, indicating the overall situation has not yet reached an extreme state. From the options structure perspective, the 25 Delta Skew has narrowed significantly across all maturities, with short-term Skew even turning negative, indicating a declining market demand for downside protection. Positions are gradually shifting toward a more balanced or even upward direction. After BTC broke through $70,000, it has now entered a dense Gamma zone between $75,000 and $80,000. Long/short options exposure is concentrated near key strike prices. As positions continue to adjust, this may further increase price sensitivity to options market changes. Recently, options capital flows have mainly concentrated around $72,500 and $79,250, with both strike prices showing clear call option buying, while demand for put options is relatively limited, indicating traders are betting on further BTC gains. Overall, the BTC rebound has driven continued recovery in options market positions, downside protection demand has declined, call option flow has increased, and volatility has rebounded but remains at a relatively moderate level; If the upward momentum continues, optionsWash's debut tonight, how tangled will the market get, and what impact will it have on $BTC?
On one side, the US July PCE is still at 3.3%, inflation is still away from the target;
On the other side, the market's pricing for a September rate hike is only 35%, not fully betting on the Fed turning hawkish.
This is the biggest expectation gap tonight!
If Wash's speech leans hawkish, emphasizing that inflation and rates can't drop too fast, or even a rate hike, then the dollar and US Treasury yields will continue to be under pressure, and BTC's rally should be cautious of a sell-off.
If he doesn't reinforce rate hikes, then BTC will have a chance to test previous highs upward.
One more detail:
BTC's previous strong rise is now stuck at 80,000, so don't just focus on whether Wash says rate cuts or hikes.
What matters is whether his speech exceeds market expectations.
Within expectations, continue to oscillate; if exceeding expectations hawkishly, beware of a pullback; if exceeding expectations dovishly, BTC will have room to move up.
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 The core conclusion of today's market is: **Risk appetite has clearly rebounded, but the gains are highly concentrated in the technology and AI sectors; the true macro direction still awaits tonight's Jackson Hole.** Nvidia's strong earnings report and long-term guidance have reignited AI trading, with the Nasdaq surging 1.57% overnight and the semiconductor sector strengthening overall; BTC has also reclaimed the vicinity of $80,000. Meanwhile, oil prices have rebounded due to cooling expectations around US-Iran negotiations, while US Treasury yields remain elevated. The biggest variable today is only one: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech at 22:00 Beijing time. 1. What happened overnight? 1. Nvidia surged 8.7%, with the AI rally becoming the main theme in US stocks again. Facts: Nvidia rose 8.7% on Thursday. The company previously reported strong Q2 results and forecasted about 70% revenue growth for the next fiscal year, significantly above the market's prior consensus of around 40%. Driven by this: The S&P 500 rose 0.72%, closing at 7,730.99; The Nasdaq rose 1.57%, closing at 26,541.35; The Dow Jones rose 0.20%, closing at 53,569.44. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 2.3%, and the S&P 500 technology sector surged 3.4%. Salesforce rose 22.6%, CrowdStrike rose 20.5%, and the software sector also showed clear recovery. Market reaction: Capital has clearly flowed back into AI,#WalshPolicyFramework To be honest, I don’t expect Walsh’s speech tonight to trigger major volatility across crypto or U.S. equities.
The main focus of Jackson Hole is financial innovation, so we may not get a clear short-term signal on whether the Fed will cut rates in September.
The case for keeping rates steady is fairly straightforward: while U.S. inflation looks relatively manageable, policymakers still have reasons to remain cautious. Old players, take a look at this, don't just treat it as an ordinary equity investment.
- This time SBI is targeting a 20% stake in Indonesia's Ajaib. According to CoinDesk's report, the core is not simply buying shares, but leveraging the partner's channels to promote the Japanese yen stablecoin JPY SC.
- Simply put, it's about first establishing a Southeast Asia entry point, then gradually integrating stablecoin issuance, use cases, and cross-border settlement.
- The key point of this kind of move is not "how many shares were bought," but that traditional finance is starting to seriously engage with blockchain infrastructure.
- If it really materializes later, the use cases for the yen stablecoin in Southeast Asia could be more practical, and cross-border transfers and settlements might become smoother.
- But note, whether the deal will ultimately be completed, when the stablecoin will launch, and how extensive its implementation will be, none of this can be taken for granted yet. Yesterday, BTC surged to 80,000 and then turned down again. Although it appeared as a spike followed by a pullback on the surface, underneath, tens of billions in options expiring were stirring things up, turning the 80,000 level into a meat grinder for bulls and bears.
On Deribit, options expiring today total over $6.4 billion, with more than 80,000 contracts. There are slightly more calls than puts, indicating an overall bullish position. The most critical factor is that the open interest is concentrated at two strike prices: 75,000 and 80,000. Especially at the 80,000 round number, call options hold nearly $160 million in notional value, right at this psychological barrier, with neither bulls nor bears willing to give ground.
In short, this amplified volatility is partly caused by market makers hedging. When the price nears 80,000, they are forced to buy and sell to keep the price pinned, known as the “pinning effect.” Once the price moves away from this level, the hedging positions accelerate selling or buying in the same direction, amplifying the price moves both up and down. Today's sharp spikes and drops triggered many stop losses, essentially a capital game at work.
Adding to this, the aftereffects of the Jackson Hole speech haven't faded, making today's expiry even more lively. There are basically two possible scenarios:
Either the price stays pinned between 78,000 and 80,000 until expiry, then after options settle and hedging positions unwind, the market slowly chooses a direction;
Or it breaks out on sentiment—if it holds above 80,000, it could surge to 82,000; if it falls below 77,500, then a short-term correction officially begins.
So, wait and watch a bit longer; the crypto space never lacks opportunities
$BTC $ETH #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #IranOpensHormuzLane Iran has allowed a controlled commercial shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz while negotiations with Oman and other regional governments continue. The arrangement appears focused on merchant vessels and may include route restrictions, mine clearing and requirements imposed by Iranian authorities. Oil prices declined as markets interpreted the additional shipping capacity as a reduction in immediate supply risk.
The development is positive but does not represent a complete normalization of the strait. Tanker attacks have continued, US sanctions are expanding and questions remain over military vessels, insurance coverage and safe-passage conditions. Iran may also use access to the lane as negotiating leverage. Traders should focus on verified tanker movements and export volumes instead of treating the announcement as a permanent reopening. The geopolitical premium in oil can fall quickly when flows improve, but it can return just as rapidly if another vessel is attacked.Capital flows often reveal institutional intent before price does. 🟠 Bitcoin spot ETFs posted $245M in daily net inflows and $1.89B for the week, while Ethereum ETFs added $155M daily and $842M weekly.
ETH’s rising share suggests institutions may be broadening exposure beyond $BTC . 📈 Still, ETF inflows reflect longer-term demand and don’t guarantee short-term price gains. Macro surprises and options expiry can quickly shift momentum.
#WalshPolicyFramework
#AIShiftsToSoftware 🏦 CRYPTO NEOBANKS: THE PRODUCT THESIS VS. THE TOKEN THESIS I think crypto neobanks like EtherFi and Plasma could perform exceptionally well over the next two years. I use my EtherFi card every day, and the biggest compliment I can give it is simple: it has become boringly normal. That’s exactly what you want from a financial product. Plasma is taking a different path toward a similar destination, but the underlying product thesis feels almost impossible to ignore. The problem? The token thesis