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$ETH has dropped to the point where some are starting to calculate weekly target levels.
After a night of decline, $ETH holders have begun reviewing the weekly charts.
Some set the target at 2130, and looking further down to 2000.
What is this price level: 2130 is not a support level, but the cost zone of the previous batch of long positions.
When the price reaches there, it means their stop-loss orders will be queued and swept.
Who places orders here: Market makers don’t look at direction, only at how thick the orders are on both sides.
If one side is thick, they push the price down, then pull it back after breaking through.
What will happen next: $BTC will follow down to 80,000, and $ETH’s depth will only get thinner.
With thinner depth, the same amount of sell volume can cause a larger drop.
Looking back, there was no dense trading between 2130 and 2000.
If it really falls into that range, the speed will be faster than the previous drop.
#渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展
#$ETH $BTC "Hawkish night, bulls carried away" 💥
20:30, data released: Core 2.6%, exceeding expectations, hawkish. 🦅
The market was silent at first, then declined steadily. $BTC slid from 82797, $ETH gasping around 2500.
21:58, first strike. In a single minute, long positions liquidated 9.4 million, 155 trades. 😱
22:05, second strike. BTC longs 1.76 million, ETH longs 1.25 million, both wiped out. Prices stopped at 82125, 2438.
22:15 review: 1-hour total network liquidation 62.43 million, 90% longs bloodied; 24-hour 240 million, 74,596 people exited. 🚑
Before the release, bulls and bears fought; after the release, one-sided long hunting. Some bet on "bad news fully priced in," but bad news was not over, stop losses and liquidations trampled each other.
Funding rates also split: BTC still positive, bulls not giving up; ETH turned negative, bears took over. ETH intraday -2.99%, ETF inflows for 10 consecutive days. 📉
BERA +7.3% to 0.2365, funding rate -0.0109%, bears adding positions; A +4.59% to 0.1045. The rise of the altcoin feels like borrowed fire. 🔥
My conclusion: the long liquidation is not over. BTC 82000 is the critical point, break below targets 81000; ETH breaks 2400, down to 2300.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 earnings report is out, the numbers are explosive, but the stock price fell.
Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit rose 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, setting a new quarterly high and exceeding market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, with advanced processes making up 79% overall. Demand for AI chips continues to support performance, this foundation is very solid.
However, the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies in the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, if gross margins decline, it indicates that cost pressures in advanced processes are eating into profits. Additionally, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is something to watch.
For BTC, this is not direct, but the underlying logic is connected. TSMC is a core supplier of AI computing infrastructure; its revenue and profit validate that AI demand is real, and the narrative of the computing power economy remains intact. BTC's long-term logic as the underlying anchor still holds. But the weaker gross margin guidance shows the cost of burning cash is rising, and the valuation of the entire semiconductor chain needs to be reabsorbed. In the short term, BTC is still bearing the pressure of CPI exceeding expectations; the impact of TSMC's earnings report is secondary.
In terms of action, don't chase tech stocks just because TSMC's profits exceeded expectations. Wait for PPI data, see how US Treasury yields and the dollar move, then decide whether to enter. $TSM $xTSM By direction and leverage:
Short positions: 37 trades, 95% win rate, net profit 4039, not a single forced liquidation.
Long positions: 39 trades, 72% win rate, net profit only 1388, all 6 forced liquidations were long positions.
100x leverage: 28 trades net profit only 781, with 530 spent on fees.
Within 10x leverage: 10 trades net profit 738, average profit per trade similar to 100x but with almost no risk.
In short:
Direction judgment is your strength; all losses come from "long positions + high leverage + holding positions" and coins like ZEC, TRUMP. If the 6 forced liquidations were replaced by rule-based 80U stop losses, net profit during this period would increase from about 5400U to about 9500U.
The three points most worth sticking to next:
Mainly trade PEPE, DOGE, SOL; avoid ZEC, TRUMP.
Be more cautious with long positions than short ones: use lower leverage and always set stop losses.
No longer use 100x leverage. It mainly brings fees and forced liquidations without extra profit.
By direction and leverage:
Short positions: 37 trades, 95% win rate, net profit 4039, not a single forced liquidation.
Long positions: 39 trades, 72% win rate, net profit only 1388, all 6 forced liquidations were long positions.
100x leverage: 28 trades net profit only 781, with 530 spent on fees.
Within 10x leverage: 10 trades net profit 738, average profit per trade similar to 100x but with almost no risk Brothers, the CPI knife has finally fallen, and both BTC and ETH have taken another hit
$BTC $81,150 | $ETH $2,370
The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%, and core CPI also exceeded expectations. Bitcoin dropped directly from above 84,000 to around 81,000, Ethereum fell below 2,400, hitting a low of 2,357
This wave of decline is a double whammy of "inflation + leverage." In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $977 million, with long positions liquidated at $895 million, accounting for a high 92%, and 184,000 people were taken out. Ethereum liquidations topped at $293 million, 92% of which were long positions, with the largest single liquidation on Binance BTCUSDT valued at $12.03 million
But there is a key divergence in the capital flow. The Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $175 million on October 13, with Fidelity's FBTC alone accounting for $103 million, ending a streak of outflows. The Ethereum ETF also recorded a net inflow of $24.84 million on the same day, ending 10 consecutive trading days of bleeding. ETF funds actually flowed in during the decline
Technically, 81,000 is a strong support at the 400-day moving average. Analyst JackYi pointed out that Bitcoin quickly rebounds every time it touches 81,000 on a pullback, with 84,000 as the resistance at the 20-day moving average. After Ethereum fell below 2,400, 2,300 is the next line of defense
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 There are new reports of outflows from BTC spot ETFs again, but this time I want to first check if the tables have been fully completed.
Checking Farside on October 14, some products have already reported capital flows, but columns like IBIT are still blank. The table showing a summary number does not mean all products reported on that day. Treating temporary blanks as zero could turn a pending update into a formal conclusion.
The complete record from the previous trading day shows a net inflow of $175.7 million. This also indicates that capital flows are naturally changing, and single-day headlines can easily sway sentiment from one extreme to another. If reporting times differ, comparing incomplete data from the current day with complete data from the previous day can lead to biased judgments.
This is not just data fastidiousness. When the record ranges don’t align, subsequent discussions might just be comparing two sets of numbers with different completion levels.
Has capital really warmed up? At least let’s make sure the comparison targets are consistent first.
Next, I will wait for all product data from the same trading day to be completed before seeing which funds the net outflows concentrate in and whether they have expanded. Blanks are just missing information; they can neither prove buyers for the bulls nor prove no takers for the bears. When the market is tense, everyone wants answers immediately, and I understand that. But taking a few seconds to confirm the statistical scope is less troublesome than explaining “a sudden shift in institutional sentiment” the next day with revised numbers.
#BTC spot ETF net outflows again, can institutional buying recover? To be honest, holding this short position until now, my biggest feeling isn’t satisfaction, but fear.
I initially shorted at 1405. On the day $ZEC rebounded to 1384, I stared at the screen with my hand hovering over the close position button for a long time. Every time the unrealized loss number on the screen ticked, my heart trembled. All the talk about trends, logic, and technicals was completely washed away by emotion at that moment.
So close. I really was just a hair away from clicking.
What stopped me wasn’t discipline. It was that I scrolled through the community and saw the whole screen shouting “halving,” “upgrade,” “privacy narrative taking off.” I’ve seen that kind of uniform excitement too many times. Whenever everyone shouts in the same direction, that’s usually the most dangerous time. The crypto market has never been comfortable for the majority, and that’s almost a rule.
What happened next everyone saw. $ZEC crashed from 1285 down to 1088, a 24-hour drop of over 13%, with trading volume swelling to 272 million USDT, and the moving averages fully confirming a bearish setup. ETH fell from 2800 to 2363, ETFs saw net outflows for 10 consecutive days, with BlackRock and Grayscale pulling money out together. CAP dropped from 0.099 to 0.076.
All three shorts are green now. $ETH unrealized profit 120%, $ZEC unrealized profit 225%, CAP unrealized profit 44%.
But I can’t feel happy.
Because I know those who chased $ZEC at 1285, those who bought $ETH at 2800, and those who jumped into CAP at 0.099, their accounts are probably wrecked now. These people aren’t dumb or ignoring the market; it’s just that when everyone is shouting “buy,” it’s hard to believe what you’re seeing is actually a tightening noose.
Don’t ask me when to take profit. I only know none of these issues are resolved yet:
ETFs are still seeing outflows. Since October, the combined net outflow of US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has nearly reached 1 billion USD, with Ethereum ETFs seeing net outflows for 8 consecutive days.
The decision on the NU7 upgrade won’t be made until October 20. The testnet is running, but whether the mainnet can launch as planned on November 5 is still unknown. This means the biggest narrative catalyst hanging over $ZEC is still up in the air.
What are the whales doing? On one side, institutions are liquidating 172,500 $ETH to cash out 124 million USD and then turning to buy UNI. On the other side, a whale is shorting $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, and $DOGE simultaneously on Aster DEX with 20x leverage, and all short positions are currently profitable. What smart money is doing is completely opposite to what retail is shouting.
Altcoins are collapsing. $XRP derivatives market saw over 610 million USD in long liquidations in a single day, setting a record. Even more extreme, a whale or institution holding 352 million USD in longs has 79,260 ETH longs with liquidation prices between 2290 and 2301 USD, just 60 USD away from the current price—liquidation could happen anytime.
None of these issues are resolved. I’m not leaving until these variables become clear.
Believe it or not, it’s up to you. But if you’re still hesitating about bottom-fishing now, don’t ask yourself how much you can earn first; ask yourself one question:
Are you bottom-fishing, or are you fueling someone else’s short?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #美国银行遭重罚，华尔街Q3业绩分化
$BTC Of the $1.367 billion decrease in net profit, $1.2 billion is a fine.
▪️ Q3 revenue $29.958 billion, up 3.2% year-over-year, below the expected $30.58 billion
▪️ Net profit $6.933 billion, down 17% year-over-year, compared to $8.3 billion last year
▪️ Includes $1.2 billion regulatory settlement costs
▪️ Earnings per share $1.08, below the expected $1.10
▪️ Stock dropped over 7% after earnings release, closed down nearly 5%
▪️ Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's stock trading revenue rose 41% year-over-year, BlackRock had a net inflow of $205 billion in the quarter
The divergence is not about how much less it earned, but how much of the "14% less" is one-time.
From $8.3 billion to $6.933 billion, the difference is $1.367 billion, of which $1.2 billion comes from settlement costs—this is a one-off and does not recur, but it sits on the income statement mixed with weak trading business in the same line. Removing the fine, what remains reflects operational changes.
The direction is to wait and see — next quarter's net profit excluding fines needs to return to positive year-over-year growth to be considered a recovery; otherwise, the decline is just masked by the fine.$BLUR This short position is steadily profiting; finding the right spot to short is the key.
I opened a short at 0.01283, current price is 0.01254, floating profit of 6.07%, the direction is firmly controlled.
First, let's look at the latest news: Blur officially announced shutting down the frontend a few days ago, triggering panic selling in the market, and whales are continuously offloading. On-chain data shows large amounts of BLUR are being transferred to exchanges continuously, with selling pressure wave after wave. Although there were intraday rebounds, those were traps; everyone chasing highs got buried at the peak.
Looking at the chart, there is a large sell order of 557.77K at 0.01297 above, and another 519.30K at 0.01296, with selling pressure layered continuously. The buy orders below are sparse and thin as paper. The long-short ratio is 41% longs to 59% shorts, with shorts completely dominating the rhythm.
BLUR has been hammered down from the highs, each rebound weaker than the last, and every rally is a shorting opportunity. I continue holding my short opened at 0.01283, with a stop loss set above 0.0135. On the downside, watch 0.012 first; if it breaks, then 0.011 is next. Find the right position, set your stop loss well, and leave the rest to time.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Short-term recovery, but the bearish tone remains
$BTC and $ETH are still generally bearish, but I don't think there will be a direct, one-way sell-off. It looks more like a weak recovery first, a bull trap, then a drop.
CPI at 3.7%, exceeding expectations. The rate cut trade was doused with cold water, and the risk of rate hikes is back on the table—CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 53.7%. The dollar index rose to 102.7, the 10-year US Treasury yield neared 5.33%, hitting a 24-year high. Williams, Collins, and Goolsbee lined up hawkishly; AI investment overheating is fueling inflation, and the Fed’s "higher for longer" logic is being repriced. The dollar, Treasury yields, and officials’ speeches—any one of these could rewrite the script next.
If there’s a sudden sharp rally under this backdrop, I would take it as a strong bull return signal, but the probability is very low.
$BTC briefly dropped to 80,230 today, just shy of 80,000, then pulled back. Nearly $484 million in liquidations occurred across the network in the past hour, with longs accounting for $464 million. The ETF side was also active: yesterday, $BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million, $ETH outflowed $129 million, and BlackRock alone withdrew over $100 million. Interestingly, on-chain whale holdings have climbed to 3.03 million $BTC, with monthly accumulation at the fastest pace since February this year. Institutions are selling, whales are buying; this divergence doesn’t prove who’s right or wrong, but at least it shows someone is betting on the direction.
My average $BTC price is 63,000, accumulated from the last crash from 80,000 down. Friends laugh at me for catching the falling knife, they wait for 50,000; but what I fear is having no position—missing out is worse than a floating loss. This is for spot; contracts have been brutal with sharp spikes, and my buddy got liquidated this morning.
Going forward, I’m only watching: can $BTC hold 80,000, can $ETH hold 2,360. $BTC tested the 80,000 level once today; the real bottom support lies at 78,000 and the ETF holding cost range below. $ETH is weaker, with 10 consecutive days of net ETF outflows totaling $783 million, whales are still moving coins to exchanges, and there’s a large sell wall at 2,382. If broken, the bears continue; if held, there’s still a tug of war.
Hold spot positions patiently, don’t gamble your life on contracts.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ At 20:30 tonight, the US PPI and retail sales data will be released. Last night's CPI data came in at 3.7%, exceeding market expectations. After this data was released, major assets began to decline: Nasdaq futures fell nearly 1%, gold dropped almost 2%, the Japanese stock market plunged over 3,300 points, and the South Korean KOSPI index fell more than 9% at one point, triggering the tenth circuit breaker of the year. Samsung and SK Hynix suffered severe losses. Market panic quickly spread, risk appetite continued to decline, and Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, also came under pressure and moved downward.
The most critical shift is: the market originally bet on "rate hikes ending and cuts next year," but now suddenly realizes that not only are cuts off the table, the probability of a rate hike in October has risen directly, and a December rate hike is almost certain at 95%. From a full-year perspective, there will definitely be another rate hike by the end of this year, whether it happens in October or December.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
High interest rates will persist longer, which is a real pressure on high-volatility assets.
Bitcoin also could not remain unscathed. After breaking below the key 82,000 daily level, it is still oscillating at a low level with a weak rebound. If it fails to rebound back above 82,000, a daily-level correction will begin, with the next target around 78,000.
There is currently no obvious signal of a bottom. Don't rush to bottom-fish or go long. In the short term, maintain a strategy of following the trend with high short positions on rebounds, and holders should control their positions carefully.
$BTC $ZEC ZECUSDT has pulled back to a key area; the switch between bulls and bears depends on stabilization signals.
📌 Since $ZECUSDT broke below 📌1460, the overall trend has been bearish. On October 12, when the closing candle broke below the 4H Vegas channel, I added to my position; at that time, the downtrend line and the 4H Vegas channel formed a suppressive resonance.
📌 Current price: approaching around 📌1060. This is a previous low tested multiple times during rallies. If the price can consolidate here and show stabilization signals, I believe trading long positions nearby offers a favorable risk-reward ratio and would create a strong bullish bias. We need to wait for stabilization signals and enter following the K-line; do not enter rashly just because the price has reached this level.
📌 If the price breaks below 📌1000 and continues to trade below this key level on smaller timeframes, I will cut losses and wait around 📌880–850 for a better entry point. If the trend meets expectations, this could become the low before $ZEC launches an independent rally, but this is still a conditional judgment, not a confirmed conclusion.
Will you follow after stabilization or continue to watch? The above is only my personal opinion. The market is highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously based on your own risk tolerance.Funds are rotating; don't mistake pulses for trumpets. Candlestick charts can disguise themselves, but on-chain net flows reveal the true colors.📊
The market is stratifying:
$ETH has a daily inflow of $180 million, but the weekly net flow is still an outflow of $650 million. There is short-term support, but no mid-term reversal.
$SOL has a daily inflow of $110 million, yet the monthly trend continues to bleed, with buying looking more like a rebound grab.
LINK has a daily inflow of $60 million, but a net outflow of $420 million over the past 30 days. Sentiment is searching for resilience; the long-term gap remains unfilled.
OP has a daily inflow of $90 million, showing local strength, but a strong day does not equal a bullish trend reversal.
Right now, it looks like testing positions, not a full-scale attack. Next, watch three points: whether ETH can sustain continuous capital inflow; whether SOL can end its monthly outflow; and whether strong coins show volume contraction on pullbacks. Only continuous action counts as a reversal; pulses still belong to consolidation.🔍
Which one do you think will break out first?🚀#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 October 15 Cross-Market Observation: CPI Rises, Risk Assets Pull Back in Sync
The strengthening of the US dollar alongside the weakening of cryptocurrencies is the direct cross-market phenomenon following the release of this inflation data. The US September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, exceeding expectations, with core inflation also surpassing forecasts; energy prices drove the overall increase, but widespread rises in housing and service prices indicate inflationary pressure is spreading. The market has raised the probability of a rate hike, funds tend to reduce risk exposure, the dollar gains buying support, and crypto assets fall along with risk assets. The two move in the same direction but this does not imply a fixed causal relationship.
BTC fell below $81,000, down 2.85% intraday, ETH declined even more, the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a new phase low, and long positions were liquidated en masse. This linkage depends on the market continuously pricing in rate hike expectations.
Once subsequent inflation data cools significantly and US bond yields continue to decline, this cross-asset linkage logic will fail.
(Full text 207 words)
$ETH $BTC $SOL It now feels more like a phase of fund washing and game theory intertwined, not a window for chasing gains. Why does someone who lost seventy thousand on SOL make me more cautious about going long? I came across a personal story that really struck me. The author said they recently took a daily-paid job, but the money saved was wiped out in SOL, accumulating a loss of seventy thousand. Their parents passed away early, no family wealth, been in the crypto circle for a year, still catching up on knowledge and execution skills, and the last sentence was "I went back to work." $SOL $BTC $ZEC I stared at this passage for a long time, and my first reaction was not sympathy but alertness: when stories like this appear intensively, it usually means the leverage side has already been cleared once, but the sentiment hasn't completely surrendered yet. From the derivatives structure perspective, this is the key. Liquidations of high-beta assets like SOL are often not isolated events. Behind it is the loosening of open interest in perpetual contracts, funding rates shifting from positive to neutral or even negative, and longs being forced to give up their positions. Price drops are not scary; what's scary is the forced reshuffling of position structures. When retail stop losses and forced liquidations are swept away, the remaining pool actually becomes lighter, which is the bullish side. But conversely, light positions do not equal a price rise. If after liquidations the funding rate does not return to a healthy range for a long time and open interest continues to decline, it indicates not a turnover but an exit. Altcoin rebounds become very short-lived, BTC and ETH draw attention away, and SOL can only be repeatedly consumed within a range. Chasing in at such times is equivalent to testing the selling pressure above for others. My own understanding is that the market is not trading on "bad news fully priced in" but on "who still has bullets left" Bitcoin stabilized near $81,000 after successfully absorbing two separate retests of the $80,000 baseline. Downward pressure was driven by broader equity weakness, with the KOSPI down 7.57% and Nikkei shedding 4.9% on rising tech credit costs. Despite US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $150.5M in net outflows on October 14, two-day net flows remain positive at $25.2M as CME rate hike expectations ease to 26%.
(DYOR). $BTC
#USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日
Last night, the CPI already released inflation bearish news; tonight's PPI is just supplementary data with limited impact. Last night, the core CPI month-over-month recorded +0.3%, which raised the probability of a rate hike at the October 28 FOMC from 17% to 35%; if tonight's core PPI month-over-month again records +0.3% or even +0.4%, institutions will comprehensively revise upward the September core PCE forecast, further strengthening tightening expectations.
Tonight's forecast: stagflation consensus, a rally first then a drop.#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
chatgpt's analysis of Tesla's latest earnings report#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
- Q3 net profit of 763.1 billion TWD, up 68.7% year-on-year, revenue also exceeded expectations, with profits hitting new highs for six consecutive quarters
- Simply put: AI computing power orders are the baseline, high-performance computing directly accounts for 68% of total revenue, 2nm process is starting to ramp up, CoWoS packaging is still in the queue, customers are scrambling fiercely for capacity
- Also provided a strong Q4 guidance and raised the full-year revenue growth forecast, management stated AI demand is far from peaking
But there are two points that shouldn’t be just hyped:
- The ramp-up of 2nm and high costs of overseas fabs put slight pressure on gross margin, it’s not a blind upward surge
- 79% of revenue comes from 7nm and below advanced processes, meaning it’s highly tied to the AI cycle; once major players cut capital expenditures, volatility won’t be small
From the blockchain and macro perspective:
The strong semiconductor market indicates that institutions still believe in the long-term AI narrative; but in the short term, it doesn’t mean BTC or AI tokens will just surge blindly — the market is still pressured by CPI and interest rate hike expectations, and positive news is easily "priced in."
Good earnings ≠ immediate price surge, it only confirms the big picture hasn’t collapsed.
In summary: TSMC’s earnings prove that "AI computing power demand is a real necessity," but in trading, don’t just blindly rush on the good news; watch the upcoming earnings calls for any new signals on "capacity, price hikes, capital expenditures" before setting the pace. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 CPI data release triggers collective risk asset pullback
At the moment the data was released, BTC quickly dropped from 83800 to around 82800, and ETH simultaneously dipped to 2430. The US September CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%, and core CPI year-over-year was 2.6%, also exceeding estimates. Inflation stickiness is stronger than expected, the market has raised Fed rate hike expectations, with the probability of a rate hike in October rising to nearly 50%, and the 5-year US Treasury yield breaking above 5.15%, indicating signs of capital withdrawal from high-risk assets.
Under the environment of tightening rate expectations, high-leverage positions are clearly under pressure. The strong liquidation price for 100x long positions is very close to the current price, and a slight decline will erode margin; storage chip targets combined with industry competition pressure and macro headwinds for tech stocks show weak trends. The macro tightening expectations are unlikely to dissipate quickly in the short term, crowded long positions still face liquidation pressure, and high-leverage operational risks have significantly increased, making principal preservation a priority.
If the market holds key support, a short-term consolidation and recovery may occur; if support fails, selling pressure may further intensify. This article is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
Yesterday, CPI directly hit 3.7%, while the expectation was only 3.6%, and core CPI also exceeded expectations, which was like pouring a bucket of cold water on the market.
Many people were still hoping for "inflation to cool down slowly, and the Fed to ease up," but once the data came out:
- US Treasury yields surged, and the dollar strengthened
- The probability of a rate hike jumped directly, and the market began to reprice "not ruling out another hike"
- US tech and storage stocks (like Micron, SanDisk) were directly hit, and Bitcoin also first came under pressure and fluctuated
Why is tonight's PPI another hurdle?
CPI is the price of goods bought by ordinary people, while PPI is the factory and wholesaler's ex-factory price.
- If PPI also exceeds expectations = upstream price increases pass down, confirming inflation stickiness, hawkish expectations will be further upgraded
- If PPI is weak = it may just be energy temporarily driving CPI, with room for easing later
- The worst case is: CPI has already exploded, and PPI delivers another "stab," making it hard for risk assets to feel comfortable in the short term
From a trading perspective on the current situation:
It’s not an "immediate crash," but expectations become unclear again, and volatility returns. Institutions say they are optimistic long-term, but when hard inflation data comes in the short term, they still reduce positions and hedge.
Don’t rush in at the sight of one data point; during this dual data window, prioritize waiting for the full picture before deciding direction, and avoid betting on "definitely up/definitely down." The market after the CPI explosion is so dramatic! $BTC directly fell below 82,000, currently at 81,316, a daily drop of 2.56%. $ETH is even worse, down 2.09%.
The biggest reaction is in the funding side, with a direct major shift:
ETF frantic outflow: On the 14th, the CPI day, BTC ETF net outflow reached as high as 261 million, while the day before it was an inflow of 175 million—really fast to run! ETH ETF is even more miserable, running away on 11 of the past 12 days.
Whales buying against the trend: Strangely, while some run, others catch. A certain whale bought 1,162 BTC directly through Wintermute for over 96 million.
Funding rate innovation: The funding rate dropped to -0.0044%, a 9-month low. Shorts have started paying longs.
The current market is a major reshuffle of chips. The 84K breakthrough completely failed, 82K has become a short-term tough level. Next, keep a close eye on the 81,000 level! If it holds and the negative funding rate continues, shorts covering still has a chance; once it breaks, the negative funding rate only confirms the price is right.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue. Tesla 2026 Q3 Bearish Report
Core Logic: Year-over-year delivery decline, overvaluation relying on unfulfilled visions, high capital expenditures, fundamentals under pressure.
Q3 deliveries reached 486,500 vehicles, exceeding market expectations by about 46,000 units but still down 2.1% year-over-year. Model 3/Y accounted for the vast majority, while other models (including Cybertruck, etc.) totaled only about 8,300 units, a significant year-over-year drop. Deliveries significantly exceeded production, supported by inventory reduction, raising quality concerns. Energy storage deployment was 13.7 GWh, below expectations.
Macro and Competitive Perspective: The US EV tax credit has ended, pressuring demand; traditional automakers and new players are accelerating electrification, price wars continue, and other new energy vehicle companies keep capturing market share, posing downside risks to gross margins. Capital expenditure plans exceed $25 billion, putting free cash flow under pressure, while Robotaxi, Optimus, and others remain in early stages with uncertain regulatory and implementation progress.
Stock price remains high, with extremely high forward P/E ratios, fully pricing in optimistic scenarios for AI and autonomous driving. If Q3 margins, cash flow, or guidance fall short of expectations, there is significant downside risk to valuation.
Conclusion: Short-term delivery beats are unlikely to change the medium- to long-term growth slowdown and execution risks.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 📉 What we really should be watching today isn't the CPI, but "who is getting liquidated."
CPI at 3.7% exceeded expectations, and CME's rate hike probability jumped from 22.7% to 33.2% within a day.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $972 million, involving 182,749 people, with 91.8% being long positions.
It's not new money shorting; it's leverage being wiped out layer by layer.
The decay is straightforward: $646 million liquidated in 12 hours, only $2.65 million left in 1 hour. The bleeding stopped.
But on the spot side, it's the opposite: BTC ETF daily net value +$2.2 million, net inflows for two consecutive days. Price dropped 2.35%, but the money didn't leave.
Big bro Maji: BTC short 40x with unrealized profit of $568,700, ETH long 25x with unrealized loss of $922,700. Hedging all day ended in a net loss — worked hard all day just to pay tuition to the exchange.
My judgment: what's falling isn't the coin, but leverage paying off debt.
Tonight's PPI, give a number that can prove me wrong:
Core month-on-month ≤0.2% → BTC rebounds to 82,500 within 48 hours;
≥0.4% → directly look at 78,500.
80,228 is today's low point, also the liquidation price of the largest single order of $12.03 million.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
What do you think, is this a shakeout or the start of a trend reversal?
$BTC #USCPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, tonight's PPI faces another test#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Last night's September CPI data exceeded expectations in multiple areas, reflecting strong inflation resilience on the consumer side and delaying market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Tonight's PPI is a producer price index used to verify upstream cost pressures; after cost increases, the impact will gradually pass through to consumer goods.
① PPI above expectations: CPI and PPI upstream and downstream inflation resonate, the US dollar and US Treasury yields continue to strengthen, and risk assets come under pressure;
② PPI meets expectations: no new variables, the market continues to digest the negative impact brought by CPI, with a weak oscillation;
③ PPI below expectations: upstream inflation eases somewhat, which can offset part of the CPI downside, giving risk assets a brief rebound opportunity.
Focus on core PPI; if the overall PPI rise is driven only by energy, the negative impact is limited; a rise in core PPI represents broad inflationary pressure. ⚠️ This is macroeconomic logic communication only and does not constitute any investment advice.US CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, higher than expected, inflation stickiness reemerges, market lowers rate cut expectations and raises rate hike probability. Tonight's PPI is the key test: if PPI is also high, it indicates upstream cost transmission and greater inflation pressure.
- USD: strengthens; US Treasury yields rise
- Gold: interest-free assets under pressure, likely to weaken
- US stocks: high-valuation tech stocks under pressure, funds seek safety
If PPI falls back, it can explain that the CPI rise is mainly due to oil price disturbances, and market sentiment will recover. Short-term volatility increases, trade cautiously.
⚠️This is not investment advice#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Once the CPI data came out, the market's bets flipped immediately. Previously, there was nearly an 80% chance of no action in October, but now the rate hike bets are rising, with three hikes priced in by the end of 2027.
The reason for this rate hike is oil prices. But rate hikes suppress demand; they can't control oil prices—Saudi Arabia won't pump two more barrels just because the Fed raised rates once. Medicine can't cure the disease; it can only suppress the economy for now, and prices that need to rise will still rise.
For us, the meaning is very direct: money is being withdrawn, and risk assets have no fresh liquidity. Most rebounds in this environment are just opportunities for people to sell; don't mistake it for a market recovery.
Bitcoin is at 81,000, keep a close eye on the 80,000 level; if it breaks, it will continue downward. $BTCThe whole network is waiting for a break below 80000, let's talk about the underlying game logic
Today is the fourth day. Let's review the current market logic.
Currently, there is a strong consensus expectation in the market square, almost all are bearish on breaking below 80000. Liquidation data also shows that long stop-losses and panic positions are densely stacked near 80000.
1. Macro level: The mismatch between US Treasury yields and risk assets
US Treasury yields remain at historically high levels. High risk-free yields directly drain liquidity from high-risk assets, which is the fundamental reason why BTC and gold have been under pressure recently.
But the expectation gap is: extremes will reverse. Once US Treasury yields start to turn down from this historical peak, liquidity will be released again, and BTC, having fallen to the bottom, will have very high upward elasticity. This marks the start of a new cycle.
Further extrapolating the US dollar credit issue: if a large amount of US Treasuries are cashed out causing the dollar to weaken and credit to collapse, gold will experience speculative surges due to risk aversion sentiment, then crash due to lack of value support; meanwhile, BTC, as a new consensus asset, will follow a long-term upward path.
2. Micro level: Liquidity harvesting at 80000
Retail investors are all watching 80000, believing that once support breaks, it’s an abyss. But from a game theory perspective, the main force piercing 80000 is likely to sweep away the leveraged stop-losses below and acquire cheap chips.
When panic sellers hand over bloodied chips and shorts start to celebrate wildly, it is often the node of a short squeeze (forcing shorts to cover) reversal. Breaking the psychological barrier does not mean a one-sided collapse; it is more likely a spike and shakeout $BTC $BLUR has already become a short-term trading playground here, with no logic at all, purely a capital game. Theoretically, blur has already entered the morgue with no chance of revival. On this basis, it can still spike wildly, playing on poor liquidity, aggressive price manipulation, and creating a breeding ground for fee arbitrage.$SOL Daily Coin: In-depth Market Analysis
Short-term Market: Quoted around 103.2, it has continuously weakened after falling back from the previous high of 124.96. The daily level has cumulatively corrected over 17%, and the daily RSI has dropped to around 20, entering the oversold zone. Added some spot positions.
The 4-hour level continues the downward trend, with price testing the EMA300 moving average support. Resistance levels are at 110 and 120, with strong support between 95-96. Volume has noticeably shrunk compared to the rally phase, which is a normal correction and consolidation after a big rise.
This rally starting from 60 dollars is essentially a valuation repair driven by continuous ecosystem implementation and strengthened public chain narrative. Currently, on-chain activity, ecosystem projects, and user data are still growing steadily. Fundamentals have not deteriorated, so the core logic of the cyclical rise remains intact.
Historically, in every bull market cycle, a 20%-30% correction in leading assets mid-cycle is normal. Each major correction is a chip rotation, washing out weak hands and preparing for the next rally.
Analysis:
Short-term sentiment is weak. Even though oversold conditions suggest a rebound demand, the overall market is still in a correction and consolidation phase. From the perspective of the 4-year cycle, the bull market top is still far away. The public chain narrative is not yet complete, and SOL’s value as a leading public chain has not been fully realized. Medium to long-term holders should not react impulsively to short-term corrections. As long as the cycle structure remains intact, hold on. Every deep correction is an opportunity to increase positions.
Just a personal view; trading is ultimately self-reliant
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 The US September PPI (Producer Price Index) data will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on October 15. As a leading upstream indicator of the CPI, it directly reflects changes in costs at the industrial, logistics, and enterprise production ends. It is a core key data point for judging US inflation stickiness and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and it has a strong impact on the global risk asset trends. Reviewing the August base, US August PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year, with a significant year-on-year increase. Core PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 4.6% year-on-year, showing clear signs of a rebound in production-end inflation. The market consensus for this September expects PPI to rise 0.5% month-on-month, continuing to increase from last month. The core upward momentum comes from the energy sector, with diesel and crude oil prices continuing to surge, significantly pushing up logistics, manufacturing, and industrial production costs across the US, creating upstream inflation transmission pressure. Combined with the recently released September CPI data, the inflation rebound has become an established fact, with both month-on-month and year-on-year CPI exceeding expectations, and price increases spreading to goods and services sectors. Against this backdrop, if the PPI rises again this time, it will confirm the continued strengthening of inflation stickiness, completely dispelling the market's short-term rate cut expectations and reinforcing the Federal Reserve's policy tone of "maintaining higher interest rates for longer." This market situation focuses on three main scenarios: First, if both PPI and core PPI exceed expectations, inflation pressure will rise comprehensively, pushing US Treasury yields and the US dollar higher, while US stocks, gold, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets will face pressure and pull back; second, if the data meets expectations, the market has already priced in the energy price increase logic in advance, and the market will most likely fluctuate within a narrow range without a clear trend; third, the dataTSMC's Q3 net profit exceeded expectations, hitting a record high, driven primarily by a surge in AI chip orders. Advanced process capacity remains in short supply, firmly maintaining its position as the global leader in wafer foundry. High gross margins reflect strong pricing power for cutting-edge chips, but rising overseas manufacturing costs and geopolitical factors introduce long-term uncertainties. This is a short-term positive for the semiconductor industry sentiment, though much of the performance has already been priced in by the market. Future outlook depends on whether AI capital expenditures can be sustained. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
My US stock pre-market diary (October 15)
This cold splash from the CPI ended the S&P's streak of 53 consecutive days without a drop over 1% last night. Looking at the pre-market today, the KOSPI has already crashed 7.6%, with SK Hynix and Samsung down 11% and 9.5% respectively.
What is the money doing?
It's very clear in the pre-market. Memory chips continue to get hit, SanDisk fell over 4%, Micron dropped 3.7%. But interestingly, the triple short semiconductor ETF (SOXS) rose nearly 7% pre-market. The money isn't selling semiconductors; it's directly betting on semiconductors to keep falling. On the other side, TLT (20-year US Treasury ETF) rose 1.46% pre-market, money is hiding in bonds.
The core contradiction this time is not "whether to raise interest rates," but "who will pay off AI's debt."
CoreWeave's bond yield has already shot above 15%, the market is pricing it as "won't last five years." This thing is like the first domino; the market suddenly realizes: doing AI requires borrowing money, borrowing is getting more expensive, and those companies leveraging debt to build computing power might collapse first.
Directionally, I lean towards continued adjustment. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen six days in a row, down nearly 12%. But this time it's not a technical correction; it's money repricing the financing cost of AI infrastructure. After the market closed, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to 5.186%, indicating the market doesn't really believe in a rate hike in October, but is trading ahead on the expectation of "high rates staying longer." $BTC On October 15, macro data completely collapsed.
US September CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, core CPI at 2.6%, both exceeding expectations.
The Nasdaq plunged 1.88% (-511 points), with the semiconductor sector's total market value evaporating by over one trillion.
The probability of a Fed rate hike in October rose to 43.7%, and US Treasury yields rose disorderly.
Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow reached $200 million in a single day, but stablecoin circulation sharply decreased by $1.75 billion over 7 days, indicating a substantial liquidity drain.
Conclusion: Under the double blow of high interest rates and a capital expenditure gap in AI, risk assets have no safe haven. Ethereum falling below 2400 is an inevitable transmission of the liquidity crisis, not a short-term technical correction. Cut losses or wait to die. $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展 $BTC
Customers no longer need to open separate wallets; the account itself is the entry point.
▪️ Standard Chartered has obtained a license from the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority and will launch crypto trading services in the UAE
▪️ The first international bank to offer such services, initially targeting professional investors in the UAE
▪️ Qualified clients can buy and sell Bitcoin and Ethereum directly through their existing Standard Chartered accounts
▪️ No need to open a separate digital wallet or go through third-party trading platforms
▪️ Standard Chartered plans to integrate trading, asset custody, and settlement into the bank's internal systems
▪️ Previously, the bank expanded its institutional spot trading business from the UK to the UAE
The divergence is not whether banks are willing to do crypto, but that it has combined three steps into one.
Exchanges, custodians, and settlement banks originally required three licenses and three separate processes. After merging into one bank, clients face a single account. What is saved is not the fees, but the step of moving assets between institutions. Whoever holds the customer's login controls the order placement—the custody layer earns custody fees, the entry layer earns traffic.
The direction is for observers to wait—services must expand from professional investors to retail for the entry point to be established; if it stops at the institutional level, it remains just a reshuffling of existing assets.Don't be fooled into entering the market by a single bullish candle. Candlestick charts can be drawn to deceive the eye, but capital flow cannot be fooled—this wave is just short-term funds testing the market, not a new round of major attack.
Capital flow: $BTC has a 24h net inflow of $656 million, but a weekly net outflow of $3.623 billion; $ETH has a 24h inflow of $700 million and a weekly outflow of $3.559 billion; $SOL has a 24h inflow of $125 million and a 30-day outflow of $2.041 billion; ZEC has a 24h inflow of $146 million. Mid-term large funds are collectively cautious; a single-day pulse ≠ trend reversal.
News: US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, reigniting high interest rate expectations, which is the core constraint suppressing the rebound; TSMC's Q3 net profit hit a record high supporting risk appetite, but Netflix's growth is slowing, tech stocks are diverging, and sentiment has not fully warmed up yet.
Watch three signals: whether BTC capital inflow can continue, whether ETH weekly outflow can end, and whether strong coins can hold their support. Control your actions before confirmation and stay patient.
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 BTC Cost Layering: What’s being cleaned out are floating coins, not faith
On-chain data reveals a harsh layering: long-term holders have an average cost of about $49,300, with a current unrealized profit of around 30%. The supply reaches a historic high of 16.3 million coins, with almost no deposits to exchanges. Short-term holders (holding coins for less than 155 days) have an average cost of about $73,700, with unrealized profits only between 9%–14%—the profit buffer is dangerously thin.
The cleaning is advancing deeper. The current price is about $81,300, breaking below the key level of 81,300. Chips with costs between $77,600 and $81,300 have overall turned to losses. Liquidations exceeded $900 million in 24 hours. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $679 million in one week. ETF investors’ average cost is $84,300, and a rebound to this level will face sell pressure to break even. Almost all selling pressure comes from floating coins moved in the past week; LTHs are not involved.
But bottom signals are gathering simultaneously. Whale holdings rose to 3.03 million coins, the highest since November 2025. Large funds increased holdings by about 15,000 coins in the $82,000–$83,000 range over 72 hours; exchange reserves dropped to a cyclical low of 2.67 million coins, with apparent demand recovering from −300,000 coins.
Conclusion: Long-term holders have a 30% unrealized profit buffer, while short-term buyers only have 9%. The cost structure determines who is holding on and who is panicking. $77,400 is the next watershed level, awaiting confirmation from continued ETF inflows and demand recovery.
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 $BTC Netflix Q3 Earnings Preview Bearish Analysis
Macroeconomic pressure combined with political and regulatory uncertainties amplify the risk of the company's growth slowdown.
On the macro level, the U.S. economy remains resilient (GDP around 2-2.5%), but inflation stickiness is high (core PCE about 3%). The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to 3.75-4% and may continue to hike. High interest rates and energy prices push up living costs, making low- and middle-income households more cautious with spending, squeezing subscription expenses. Although Netflix relies on high ARPU users, its pricing power is narrowing, and the advertising business is sensitive to macro advertising budgets. Exchange rate fluctuations also impact overseas revenue (more than half non-USD).
Political and regulatory environments add further uncertainty. With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, policy uncertainty is rising. Netflix previously failed to acquire Warner assets, while the Paramount-Warner merger has been completed, creating a stronger competitor. Regulators continue to focus on streaming concentration, sports broadcasting rights shifts, and pricing behavior, maintaining antitrust and content censorship pressures. Netflix has formed a lobbying alliance with Amazon and YouTube, indirectly reflecting rising policy risks.
The company's own Q3 guidance growth rate has dropped to about 11.7%, with weak engagement. Under the dual pressures of macro consumption divergence and political regulation, valuation compression risks are increasing.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 CPI exceeded expectations, yet gold fell
After the inflation data was released, gold dropped 1.65% in a short time.
It touched a low of 4088, while $BTC fluctuated between 81000 and 83000.
The original rule is:
When inflation is high, the Federal Reserve has to keep interest rates elevated longer.
At the moment this is triggered:
High interest rates mean holding gold is equivalent to giving up interest.
That's why the sell-off happens.
A common misunderstanding:
Gold is not afraid of inflation now, but of rate hikes.
It trades the same thing as $BTC.
Liquidity tightening spares no one.
Only when the Fed eases its tone will the next market phase come.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#$BTC BTC spot ETF outflow news has surfaced again. This time, I want to first check if the tables have been fully completed.
Checking Farside on October 14th, some products have already reported capital flows, but columns like IBIT remain blank. A summary number shown in the table does not mean all products reported on that day. Treating temporary blanks as zero could turn a pending update into a formal conclusion.
The complete record from the previous trading day shows a net inflow of $175.7 million. This also indicates that capital direction is already changing, and a single-day headline can easily sway sentiment from one extreme to another. If reporting times differ, comparing incomplete data from the current day with complete data from yesterday makes judgments even more biased.
This is not just data fastidiousness. When record ranges are not aligned, subsequent discussions might just be comparing two sets of numbers with different completion levels.
Has capital really warmed up? At least let the comparison targets be consistent first.
Next, I will wait for all product data from the same trading day to be completed before seeing which funds the net outflow is concentrated in and whether it has expanded. Blanks are just missing information; they neither prove buying for the bulls nor prove no reception for the bears. When the market is tense, everyone wants answers immediately, and I understand that. But taking a few seconds to confirm the statistical scope is less troublesome than explaining "a sudden change in institutional attitude" the next day with revised numbers.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ 昨天黄金和BTC一起跌，今天黄金跌了0.50%，BTC却只跌0.09%——几乎持平。这种分化，是不是意味着资金开始重新排序？ 先说新闻。三个数字：黄金期货报4,169.5美元（日内 -0.50%），现货4,156.90；BTC报83,353.6美元（24小时 -0.09%、近一周 -0.13%）；美元指数102.16（-0.02%）。同时，美国现货ETF最近5个交易日净流出约7.689亿美元，但最新单日流出已收窄到6,860万美元。 再看资金影响。黄金与BTC的分工在变化：避险需求强的时候，黄金先涨；风险预算修复的时候，BTC先稳。今天"黄金跌、BTC稳"的组合，说明推动资金从避险端往风险端试探——但要注意，这只是第一天。真正的排序变化需要几步验证：第一步，黄金停止上涨甚至回落（今天满足）；第二步，BTC停止下跌并开始横盘（今天满足）；第三步，资金通道由净流出转为净流入（还没满足）。 对BTC的含义：不要因为一天的分化就改变框架。BTC现在的状态更接近"止跌"而不是"反转"：价格走平、单日流出收窄、情绪回升——三项都是必要条件，但没有一项是充分条件。我的做法是把这种分化当成观察信号：如Behind the $BTC and $ETH crash, whales are quietly positioning themselves!
BTC fell below 81,000; don’t just panic over the price on the chart, the changes in chip distribution behind it are the core.
The market is showing a very divided scene now: ETFs are continuously selling off, but on-chain whales are quietly accumulating chips. There are large single-day outflows from spot ETFs, with FBTC accounting for a large portion. On the other hand, whale holdings are still increasing. Data shows this is the strongest month of whale accumulation since February.
This round of decline is not simply a market sentiment collapse; essentially, chips are being massively relocated. ETFs and ordinary retail investors are exiting, while whales with large capital are slowly absorbing chips at low levels.
But it’s important to be clear: this is currently just chip swapping, far from a complete market reversal. This round of sell-off was partly triggered by CPI data impact and partly by massive liquidation of long leverage positions, with huge long orders liquidated within 24 hours.
No need to blindly guess the rise or fall going forward; just focus on one key signal: when ETF outflows start to stabilize, and whales continue to increase accumulation, and the two resonate, that will be the true turning point. $OKB #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Yes
TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, due#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 I, another round of data harvesting?
Last night, as soon as CPI was released, the market was immediately hammered down. Tonight PPI is coming again, and the market is already on edge.
Previous value 5.4%, expected 5.3%.
Many treat this as another "rate hike expectation trade." CPI and PPI are the two main core inputs for calculating PCE, and PCE is the main basis the Fed uses to assess inflation. If data exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations will be pushed further back; if below expectations, it might trigger a rebound. The problem is, this kind of data trading is itself very easy to be harvested.
I've fallen into a similar trap before: before data release, shorts are crowded, but the numbers just hit near expectations, rates reverse, shorts get liquidated first, then spot doesn't follow, and prices get pushed back down. Currently, funding rates are not extreme, but leveraged positions remain, so once data is out, it can easily turn into another forced liquidation.
How are you planning to respond this time? Wait for the data to come out before acting, or have you already positioned in advance?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
$XRP This volume is off. A drop without volume is normal, but as soon as it falls, the trading volume doubles, forcibly piling up to almost twice, with trading sitting at 200 million U, yet the price keeps moving down. To put it simply, there are only two possibilities: either someone is dumping below the integer threshold following the trend, or someone is taking advantage of the chaos to buy cheap, the rest is up to your imagination.
1.32, I haven't moved at this position. If it breaks 1.3, I won't hold my position anymore. I see that gap below will be filled sooner or later. Don't rush, wait until no one is willing to place orders before making a move. $XRP #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
1. Fundamentals explode: Both revenue and net profit hit record highs (net profit reached 763.1 billion TWD, a surge of 68.7%), directly confirming the extremely strong global demand for AI computing power.
2. Monopoly position deepens: Advanced process accounts for a high 79%, and 2nm has quickly contributed 8% of revenue, with a deep moat in both technology and capacity.
3. Short-term market concerns: Due to depreciation from early 2nm mass production and overseas factory construction costs, gross margin shows a marginal downward trend. Coupled with AI peak theories and "all good news priced in" sentiment, the stock price faces some short-term volatility pressure.
Overall conclusion: TSMC remains the most stable "shovel seller" in the AI wave, with unchanged long-term fundamental logic. Short-term focus should be on gross margin pressure and the digestion process caused by market divergence. A giant whale/institution has been selling BTC to buy ETH for 4 consecutive days and hasn't stopped yet.
Specific path: In the past day, it sold another 237.8 BTC, converted to 19.7 million USDC, then bought 7,929 ETH. Over 4 days, it sold a total of 1,312.1 BTC, exchanged for 109.1 million USDC, and bought 43,275 ETH at an average purchase price of 2,521 USD.
At the current price, this position swap is currently at an unrealized loss of about 4.15 million USD.
Interestingly, the timing—right when CPI exceeded expectations and the market was panicking, this whale kept swapping. The ETH/BTC rate is currently at a historically low level, meaning the same amount of funds can buy more ETH with greater elasticity. But this doesn't mean ETH will rise immediately; it just indicates that some capital is betting on this ratio to correct.
Going forward, watch two things: whether ETH/BTC can recover, and whether spot buying can keep up. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 1#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
South Korea's stock market faced a "Black Thursday" on Thursday, with the KOSPI index plunging over 8% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading for 20 minutes, marking the tenth circuit breaker this year. The KOSDAQ index also dropped more than 8%, with the KOSDAQ 150 index plummeting 8.83%. The KOSPI has declined for seven consecutive trading days, accumulating a drop of about 21%.
Semiconductor heavyweight stocks were the core of the sell-off. SK Hynix closed down 10.01%, falling nearly 58% from its peak; Samsung Electronics dropped 9.48%, down 44% from its high. Foreign investors were the main source of selling pressure, with a net daily sale of KOSPI constituent stocks reaching 36.2 trillion KRW (about 2.7 billion USD), marking the eighth consecutive day of net selling. Since October, foreign capital has cumulatively withdrawn over 10 billion USD from the Korean stock market.
Global tech stocks are under simultaneous pressure. Overnight, the US Nasdaq index plunged 1.88%, the largest single-day drop since July; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.3%, declining for the sixth consecutive trading day, the longest streak since May 2025. CoreWeave plummeted 15.46%, Oracle dropped 8.83%, AMD fell 5.7%, and Micron declined 4.1%. During the Asian session, the Nikkei 225 index dropped nearly 5%, SoftBank Group fell 9.33%, and Advantest plunged over 14%.
Triple pressures erupt simultaneously.
First, US inflation data broadly exceeded expectations. September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%, and core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, also above the expected 2.5%. After the data release, market bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes quickly intensified, with the probability of a December rate hike rising above 55%. For AI infrastructure investments reliant on external financing, "higher for longer" interest rates mean continuously rising financing costs and extended investment return cycles.
Second, controversy over AI investment returns is heating up. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan likened the current AI market sentiment to a "casino" this week, warning that financing issues may be more severe than chip shortages. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio previously stated that a large amount of debt is being used to fund AI investments, "We are currently at a breaking point, but very close to it." Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta collectively spend about $730 billion annually in capital expenditures, corresponding to direct AI annual revenues of only about $25 billion, roughly 4% of the spending. The gap between input and return is being repriced by the market.
Third, changes in supply and demand expectations for the semiconductor sector itself. The market is beginning to worry that as AI demand continues to surge, memory chip manufacturers are expanding capacity, and future supply growth may outpace demand, potentially leading to a global memory chip market oversupply as early as 2029. Samsung Electronics ended its stock buyback program on October 6, and SK Hynix's buyback is also nearing completion. The combined buyback support of 55 trillion KRW from the two companies is about to fade, leaving the market short of significant short-term buffers.
Strong earnings reports fail to reverse sentiment.
ASML announced third-quarter results on Wednesday exceeding expectations, with revenue reaching €11.66 billion, net profit €4.96 billion, and a gross margin of 57.5%. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance for the third consecutive quarter to €44–45 billion. It expects to deliver about 65 EUV systems in 2026, an increase of over 50% from last year, with some major customers extending purchase intentions to 2029–2030. TSMC announced third-quarter net profit of NT$763.1 billion on Thursday, up 68.7% year-on-year, marking a record high for six consecutive quarters.
However, strong performance has not eased market anxiety. As analysts pointed out, Samsung Electronics and TSMC had previously given explosive preliminary results but still failed to eliminate valuation pressure on memory chip stocks, with investors demanding a "very high bar."
The Korean won is also under pressure, with the USD/KRW rate around 1347, as foreign capital outflows boost demand for the dollar. South Korean regulators have urgently convened meetings to assess whether the market is overreacting. The KOSPI's 12-month forward P/E ratio near 5500 points has dropped to about 4 times, but foreign selling pressure persists, buyback support fades, and global tech stock sell-offs resonate, making it highly likely that short-term volatility will remain elevated.