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#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
$XRP This volume is off. A drop without volume is normal, but as soon as it falls, the trading volume doubles, forcibly piling up to almost twice, with trading sitting at 200 million U, yet the price keeps moving down. To put it simply, there are only two possibilities: either someone is dumping below the integer threshold following the trend, or someone is taking advantage of the chaos to buy cheap, the rest is up to your imagination.
1.32, I haven't moved at this position. If it breaks 1.3, I won't hold my position anymore. I see that gap below will be filled sooner or later. Don't rush, wait until no one is willing to place orders before making a move. $XRP #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
1. Fundamentals explode: Both revenue and net profit hit record highs (net profit reached 763.1 billion TWD, a surge of 68.7%), directly confirming the extremely strong global demand for AI computing power.
2. Monopoly position deepens: Advanced process accounts for a high 79%, and 2nm has quickly contributed 8% of revenue, with a deep moat in both technology and capacity.
3. Short-term market concerns: Due to depreciation from early 2nm mass production and overseas factory construction costs, gross margin shows a marginal downward trend. Coupled with AI peak theories and "all good news priced in" sentiment, the stock price faces some short-term volatility pressure.
Overall conclusion: TSMC remains the most stable "shovel seller" in the AI wave, with unchanged long-term fundamental logic. Short-term focus should be on gross margin pressure and the digestion process caused by market divergence. A giant whale/institution has been selling BTC to buy ETH for 4 consecutive days and hasn't stopped yet.
Specific path: In the past day, it sold another 237.8 BTC, converted to 19.7 million USDC, then bought 7,929 ETH. Over 4 days, it sold a total of 1,312.1 BTC, exchanged for 109.1 million USDC, and bought 43,275 ETH at an average purchase price of 2,521 USD.
At the current price, this position swap is currently at an unrealized loss of about 4.15 million USD.
Interestingly, the timing—right when CPI exceeded expectations and the market was panicking, this whale kept swapping. The ETH/BTC rate is currently at a historically low level, meaning the same amount of funds can buy more ETH with greater elasticity. But this doesn't mean ETH will rise immediately; it just indicates that some capital is betting on this ratio to correct.
Going forward, watch two things: whether ETH/BTC can recover, and whether spot buying can keep up. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 1#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
South Korea's stock market faced a "Black Thursday" on Thursday, with the KOSPI index plunging over 8% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading for 20 minutes, marking the tenth circuit breaker this year. The KOSDAQ index also dropped more than 8%, with the KOSDAQ 150 index plummeting 8.83%. The KOSPI has declined for seven consecutive trading days, accumulating a drop of about 21%.
Semiconductor heavyweight stocks were the core of the sell-off. SK Hynix closed down 10.01%, falling nearly 58% from its peak; Samsung Electronics dropped 9.48%, down 44% from its high. Foreign investors were the main source of selling pressure, with a net daily sale of KOSPI constituent stocks reaching 36.2 trillion KRW (about 2.7 billion USD), marking the eighth consecutive day of net selling. Since October, foreign capital has cumulatively withdrawn over 10 billion USD from the Korean stock market.
Global tech stocks are under simultaneous pressure. Overnight, the US Nasdaq index plunged 1.88%, the largest single-day drop since July; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.3%, declining for the sixth consecutive trading day, the longest streak since May 2025. CoreWeave plummeted 15.46%, Oracle dropped 8.83%, AMD fell 5.7%, and Micron declined 4.1%. During the Asian session, the Nikkei 225 index dropped nearly 5%, SoftBank Group fell 9.33%, and Advantest plunged over 14%.
Triple pressures erupt simultaneously.
First, US inflation data broadly exceeded expectations. September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%, and core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, also above the expected 2.5%. After the data release, market bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes quickly intensified, with the probability of a December rate hike rising above 55%. For AI infrastructure investments reliant on external financing, "higher for longer" interest rates mean continuously rising financing costs and extended investment return cycles.
Second, controversy over AI investment returns is heating up. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan likened the current AI market sentiment to a "casino" this week, warning that financing issues may be more severe than chip shortages. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio previously stated that a large amount of debt is being used to fund AI investments, "We are currently at a breaking point, but very close to it." Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta collectively spend about $730 billion annually in capital expenditures, corresponding to direct AI annual revenues of only about $25 billion, roughly 4% of the spending. The gap between input and return is being repriced by the market.
Third, changes in supply and demand expectations for the semiconductor sector itself. The market is beginning to worry that as AI demand continues to surge, memory chip manufacturers are expanding capacity, and future supply growth may outpace demand, potentially leading to a global memory chip market oversupply as early as 2029. Samsung Electronics ended its stock buyback program on October 6, and SK Hynix's buyback is also nearing completion. The combined buyback support of 55 trillion KRW from the two companies is about to fade, leaving the market short of significant short-term buffers.
Strong earnings reports fail to reverse sentiment.
ASML announced third-quarter results on Wednesday exceeding expectations, with revenue reaching €11.66 billion, net profit €4.96 billion, and a gross margin of 57.5%. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance for the third consecutive quarter to €44–45 billion. It expects to deliver about 65 EUV systems in 2026, an increase of over 50% from last year, with some major customers extending purchase intentions to 2029–2030. TSMC announced third-quarter net profit of NT$763.1 billion on Thursday, up 68.7% year-on-year, marking a record high for six consecutive quarters.
However, strong performance has not eased market anxiety. As analysts pointed out, Samsung Electronics and TSMC had previously given explosive preliminary results but still failed to eliminate valuation pressure on memory chip stocks, with investors demanding a "very high bar."
The Korean won is also under pressure, with the USD/KRW rate around 1347, as foreign capital outflows boost demand for the dollar. South Korean regulators have urgently convened meetings to assess whether the market is overreacting. The KOSPI's 12-month forward P/E ratio near 5500 points has dropped to about 4 times, but foreign selling pressure persists, buyback support fades, and global tech stock sell-offs resonate, making it highly likely that short-term volatility will remain elevated.#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, earnings hit a record high Last night when the CPI came out, the market exploded.
Overall 3.7%, expected 3.6%. Core 2.6%, expected 2.5%, both exceeded expectations. Gasoline rose 9.1% month-on-month, the main driver. US stocks and crypto both fell, and the October rate hike expectation rose from 22% to 45%.
But I think the probability of a rate hike in October is still low, more like paving the way for December. The market is first speculating on expectations; when the actual rate hike day comes, the reaction might not be that intense. After $BTC breaks down, don’t be too pessimistic; the 80,000 level is still relatively stable. Whether the bulls are really dead depends on the next round of rate hikes and the policy speech at the end of October.
In terms of operations: now consolidate positions and play defense. For spot bottom fishing, only focus on BTC and ETH, buying in batches around 80,000. Don’t rush on altcoins; place orders to catch them, for example $UNI at 6.5. UNI has dropped 40% from its high, so take profits on the wave if you should. There’s more data this week, so placing orders is safer. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Big Brother Maji's recent portfolio adjustment really signals a shift in the wind.
He used to basically go all-in on longs, but this time it's different. The total contract position is about 59.76 million U, split directly into three parts: short BTC, short HYPE, and long ETH.
A few details:
$BTC 40x short, opened at 84070, currently floating profit around 220,000 U, but funding fees have cost 56,600 U. Position dominant, but with 40x leverage, even a small price bounce can be painful, so don't just look at the floating profit.
$ETH 25x long, opened at 2541, currently floating loss of 340,000 U. The market is weak but he's still holding longs—either betting on ETH catching up or using it for portfolio hedging. Unfortunately, there was a strong spike this morning, suspected to be targeting Big Brother Maji's position!
$HYPE is the harshest: 5x short, opened at 65.8, floating loss of 4.21 million U, though funding fees collected 1.03 million U. These fees help ease the cost a bit, but can't withstand price volatility. Don't think collecting fees means it's stable. So I think this isn't a full bearish stance, more like he's differentiating directions among different coins.
Watch three points going forward: can BTC stabilize, can ETH rise, and can the HYPE short hold up. You can observe smart money's positions, but don't blindly copy. What really matters is why he's positioning this way, not just following because he buys. CPI has been released, inflation has broadly exceeded expectations, and the core remains strong. The Fed's claim of "blaming only energy" no longer holds up 😤. The market is voting with its feet, and risk assets are collectively under pressure.
$BTC has fallen below 82,000, ETF funds are already flowing out, and with macro tightening, buyers dare not move. If 80,000 doesn't hold today, 78,000 is the next stop 📉.
$ETH remains the weakest, ETFs continue to bleed, staking yields can't beat US Treasuries, and institutions are unwilling to take over. When Bitcoin weakens, it falls even harder, making short-term stabilization difficult ⚠️.
$XAUT spot gold has dropped nearly 2%, with rising real interest rates and a dual rise in the dollar and US Treasuries, non-yielding gold is taking a hit in the short term. But it quickly rebounded because ETF allocation and central banks are still buying 🥇. Bitcoin's support comes from on-chain whales, while gold relies on central bank sovereign funds; the nature and patience of the capital are completely different levels.
Strategy: Hold the spot base positions of Bitcoin and Ethereum firmly, unload all short-term leverage. Gold is under short-term pressure but has a stronger foundation 💡. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
US September CPI data broadly exceeded expectations, reigniting market bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 14 showed that September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, the largest increase in five months, above the market expectation of 3.6% and up from the previous 3.4%; month-over-month it rose 0.6%, in line with expectations but higher than the prior value. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 2.6% year-over-year, above the expected 2.5% and previous 2.4%; core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, versus an expected 0.2%.
Price pressures are broad-based. Energy prices rose 5.2% in September, accumulating a 20.4% increase year-to-date; fuel costs pushed up airfares, which rose 1.2% in September, with a 22.4% increase year-to-date. Prices for entertainment, used cars, education, healthcare, and clothing also increased. Analysts noted some of these rises may stem from tariffs and energy factors, but others indicate inflation is sticky. Supply-side factors such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, tariffs, and labor shortages in some industries, along with a boom in data center construction pushing up prices of semiconductors and other goods, have jointly intensified inflationary pressures.
Market pricing: Rate hike bets double
After the data release, the CME FedWatch tool showed traders rapidly increasing bets on a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in October, with the probability rising from 21.6% before the data to 43.7%, while the chance of no rate change dropped to 56.3%. By December, the probability of no rate change was only 4.3%, with a 55.3% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike and 40.4% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point hike. The market also increased bets on three more Fed hikes before the end of 2027.
The US dollar index rose briefly, with intraday gains expanding to 0.50% at 102.71; spot gold fell below $4100/oz, down 1.46% intraday. The three major US stock indices all closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.88%, marking its largest single-day drop since July; the S&P 500 fell 1.11%, ending the longest calm streak since January 2020 of 53 trading days without a single-day drop over 1%. Technology and semiconductor sectors were the focus of selling, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down for the sixth consecutive trading day, CoreWeave down over 15%, Dell down over 11%, and Oracle and Marvell Technology both down nearly 9%. Market concerns about AI infrastructure investment returns and debt financing costs have reinforced expectations of rate hikes.
Officials' statements: Rate hike direction unchanged, timing differs
Several Fed officials quickly commented after the data release, showing subtle differences in stance. New York Fed President Williams previously said one more rate hike this year is appropriate; the Iran conflict pushing up energy prices changed his short-term inflation outlook, making him "firmly support" the September rate hike decision. Boston Fed President Collins also said a "moderate further rate hike before year-end would be appropriate," but the exact timing depends on subsequent CPI and PCE data.
San Francisco Fed President Daly was more cautious. She said the Fed may need to raise short-term rates further to curb inflation but does not need to act immediately at the October meeting. "We are very likely to need further adjustments, but as for timing, I think we are still weighing it. I don't think it's necessary to rush decisions with limited information." Daly noted gasoline prices are pushing up overall inflation readings, while core inflation remains stubborn, consistent with the Fed's prior expectations.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed stronger concerns about inflation spillovers from AI investment, saying "the areas of price increases are no longer limited to data center components and directly related industries; I am increasingly worried this is typical overheating of aggregate demand."
Tonight's PPI: Testing whether upstream pressures continue to transmit
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, US September PPI will be released alongside retail sales data. The market expects overall PPI to rise 0.6% month-over-month in September, significantly above August's 0.4%; core PPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, up from 0.2% previously. Year-over-year, overall PPI is expected to remain around 5.4%.
The significance of PPI is not to explain CPI surprises but to provide key input for the Fed's preferred PCE inflation measure. Major CPI components pushing core inflation—housing rent and used car prices—do not exist in PPI, as PPI measures producer prices rather than rent or used cars. But airfare, asset management fees, doctor and hospital services directly enter PCE calculations. Therefore, even if the overall PPI reading looks moderate, large price increases in financial and medical services could still be a warning signal.
The worst-case scenario is PPI exceeding expectations combined with strong retail sales—high inflation alongside robust demand, leaving the Fed less concerned about economic slowdown. The mildest scenario is both prices and sales weakening. The market is currently in a data verification window; whether PPI can provide a clear enough signal will determine if the December rate hike moves from forward guidance to the baseline scenario.#ASML Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Can Long-Term Demand Be Realized?
The boss has something to say
ASML's Q3 financial report is very impressive. Revenue reached €11.662 billion, a historic high. Gross margin was 57.5%, exceeding guidance. Q4 guidance is €14.2 to €15.2 billion, and the full-year revenue lower bound has also been raised. The CEO said that the current supply plan for 2027 to 2028 may not be sufficient, and some customers are already inquiring about procurement plans for 2029 to 2030.
However, ASML's US stock closed down 3.9% yesterday, and the semiconductor sector is generally under pressure. Why? Because the market is focused on whether actual orders can be realized. Customer inquiries about long-term procurement do not equal signed contracts. Expansion studies do not equal capacity. Good financials but falling stock price indicate that investors are worried about the long return cycle of AI hardware investments.
The impact on crypto is indirect. Weakness in semiconductors cools tech stock sentiment, risk appetite contracts, and Bitcoin also faces pressure. Coupled with CPI exceeding expectations, inflation rising for three consecutive months, increased rate hike expectations, and high US Treasury yields, Bitcoin is bearish in the short term.
I have already closed my long position at 84,000, pocketing a profit of 1,200 points, and am now flat. Not in a hurry to go long again; will wait for the market to digest CPI and TSMC's financial report before reassessing. Support below is at 80,000; holding 82,000 means consolidation.
Don't chase the highs or sell the lows; set stop losses properly. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.Netflix's Q3 earnings report will be released on October 20, and the stock price may continue to face pressure
Growth has clearly slowed, engagement is stagnant, competition is intensifying, and valuation still has downside potential.
The current stock price is about $70-71, down about 25-27% year-to-date, close to the 52-week low. Q2 revenue was $12.6 billion (+13.4%), and Q3 guidance was lowered to about +11.7% (approximately 11% on a constant currency basis), the slowest in recent years. Full-year revenue guidance is $51-51.4 billion (+13-14%).
The biggest risk lies in user engagement: global viewing time in the first half of the year increased only about 2% year-over-year, U.S. TV share dropped from about 8.8% to 7.8%, while YouTube rose to 14.2% and continues to widen the gap. U.S. losses are accelerating, with younger users watching less. Content spending growth significantly outpaces viewing growth, with high investment but low returns in live sports, and weak blockbuster expectations for H2.
Recent reports indicate plans to cut about 1,000 jobs (about 6% of staff), reflecting cost discipline but also indirectly confirming growth pressure.
The advertising business target has doubled to about $3 billion, with room for margin improvement; buybacks are also supporting EPS but cannot fully offset the subscription growth slowdown. Analysts have gradually downgraded ratings and target prices.
Conclusion: The platform still has scale and cash flow advantages, but the growth narrative is weakening. If Q3 and subsequent guidance confirm the slowdown, the stock price may face further pressure
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Why has SanDisk been falling recently?
I believe the main reason for $SNDK's recent decline is competition from ChangXin Memory. Recently, ChangXin Memory has made progress in DRAM technology.
So the market is worried that an increase in storage chip supply in the future will lead to lower profits across the entire industry.
About ChangXin Technology
Although ChangXin Technology has made technical progress, it still has a long way to go before it can break through to large-scale mass production and truly impact the supply and demand of the entire industry.
Especially for storage products required by AI data centers, which have demands for performance, yield, and stable production capacity.
Moreover, ChangXin's DRAM technology progress may not directly impact SanDisk's core product, NAND flash memory.
Therefore, the current market concern is about the competitive landscape of the storage industry being reshuffled.
My thoughts
Although ChangXin has not yet posed a threat to SanDisk, the supply and prices in the entire storage industry will affect SanDisk's profitability.
Storage chips themselves are a highly cyclical industry, and it is questionable to what extent the growth expectations brought by AI are already reflected in the stock price.
So I think we shouldn't simply assume that this decline is caused by ChangXin and therefore believe SanDisk has been unfairly punished.#AMD Earnings Preview: Progress in Commercialization of HeliosAI System If the liquidation amount of ETH is much greater than $BTC ,
this indicates that market speculation sentiment is very hot,
so leverage still needs to be repeatedly cleaned up,
which is similar in meaning to the quote I posted,
the current rebound is the B-wave rebound in the middle of the bear market,
the bear market has only gone a little more than halfway so far,
the upcoming C-wave decline will not be smaller than the drop from 120,000 to 60,000.
The B-wave consolidated sideways for more than 8 months, accumulating enough strength,
when it falls later, the energy will also be very strong and fierce.
Until the market believes $BTC is the boss,
slowly entering a rational state, altcoins are all trash,
only Bitcoin is the king, then it will be about right.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 𝗢𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗖𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗢𝗳 𝗪𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗧𝗼 𝗢𝘄𝗻 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻
𝑾𝒂𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝑻𝒐 𝑩𝒖𝒚 $𝑩𝑻𝑪 𝑰𝒔 𝑵𝒐𝒘 𝑪𝒐𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 ~38% 𝒂 𝒀𝒆𝒂𝒓
Most people think waiting to buy BTC is free. It isn’t.
Bitcoin follows a long-term power law:
Price ∝ time^5.7
That means:
- Time is not neutral
- The network keeps compounding
- The curve keeps rising
- The forward CAGR keeps falling
At BTC age ≈ 17.36 years, the power-law forward CAGR is roughly:
1 year: 38
3 years: 35%
5 years: 33% Standard Chartered’s UAE launch matters because it puts BTC and ETH trading inside existing bank accounts for eligible professional investors, alongside custody and potential collateral services. That may reduce operational friction, but it does not prove durable demand or inflows. The real test is whether the wider service stack keeps capital engaged after the first trade.
#StanChartBTCETHTrading On October 14th, Standard Chartered directly set up a tower crane on the sands of Dubai—the BTC and ETH trading counter was embedded for the first time into the load-bearing wall of a traditional bank.
I have worked on many supertall buildings. What truly allows a building to last over fifty years is never the beautiful curve in the renderings, but the pile foundation thirty meters underground and the lap length of every vertical rebar in the core tube. Digital assets have been selling renderings all these years: whitepapers are design drawings, roadshows are renderings, and communities are marketing centers. Now, finally, someone is pouring the raft foundation.
Standard Chartered uses the existing account system to support professional investors. This is not just opening another service window; it is structural reinforcement on the original reinforced concrete framework. Reinforcement is much harder than new construction—you have to channel new loads into the old column grid without stopping operations. Custody is the pile, accounts are the beams, clearing is the floor slab; these three must be rigidly connected. If any part becomes hinged, the entire building will sway under wind loads.
Custody of RLUSD is equivalent to embedding a new water supply and drainage system into this structure; exploring collateral usage is like converting the basement into rentable commercial space. Once the load path is connected, asset holding time changes from "transit" to "permanent residence." This is how institutional funds truly land: not by rushing in, but by signing long-term leases.
BNY Mellon is expanding digital asset custody in Europe, Citibank is rolling out tokenized deposits in Japan and the UAE, and Wells Fargo is building its own stablecoin solution. This is not four banks each building their own small buildings; it is a joint underground utility corridor on the same plot—power, communications, water supply, and drainage all buried in the same conduit. Once the corridor is connected, it’s not cost-effective for anyone to demolish a single building alone. This is the stickiness of infrastructure.
Look again at those tokenized assets on the US stock market. They are model units, the fully furnished showrooms of a sales office—no matter how beautifully decorated, they cannot prove the structural safety of the entire building. What truly determines whether institutions will subscribe is whether the three load-bearing systems behind—custody, clearing, and collateral—can pass the strictest seismic resilience tests.
What I’m watching is another matter: are these banks building curtain walls or the main structure? Most traditional institutions are used to building curtain walls—glossy exteriors, short construction times, replaceable if broken. Only those willing to invest in the main structure will modify core systems, account models, and compliance embedded components.
The wind load test hasn’t started yet. The reinforcement ratio of the columns is the real answer. #stanchartbtcethtrading Even if PPI is below expectations, if BTC doesn't reclaim 82,000, the bullish move might just be a spike
PPI will be announced tonight at 20:30. Last night, CPI was 3.7% year-over-year, core CPI 2.6%, showing consumer-side pressure is already evident; tonight we need to verify if production-side costs are also heating up.
If PPI cools down, US Treasury yields should fall, the dollar weaken, and BTC's first reaction will likely be an upward correction. But one green candle doesn't mean a reversal, and positive data doesn't guarantee spot funds are willing to buy.
BTC is currently around 80,970, with a 24-hour low of 80,228. The real level to reclaim is the 81,400–82,000 breakout zone. If PPI is below expectations but BTC can't break through 82,000 and spot volume doesn't pick up significantly, this rally is more likely short covering rather than new buying. After the spike, the price may still retest 80,228; if that breaks, the downside target is 79,000–78,000.
For a valid strengthening, three conditions are needed: US Treasury yields must continue to fall, BTC must hold above 82,000, and ETH must reclaim 2,400. Missing any one, I wouldn't consider the rebound a new trend.
My plan is simple: no directional bets before the data, and no chasing the first spike after the release. Whether the bullish move holds the price is more important than the PPI number itself.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 Small-scale inflows on the eve of the CPI—does this really mean sentiment is back? Don't rush to be happy; this looks more like a probe rather than a trend reversal. I have a subtle feeling watching the market: BTC and ETH saw short-term spot inflows of 13.73M and 13.27M respectively before the CPI release. The numbers aren't large, but the timing is critical. The problem is that inflows over the 4-hour and 24-hour periods remain weak, indicating this isn't sustained buying but more like temporary risk-hedging accumulation before the event. SOL is even more noteworthy, with net outflows across all three time frames. This isn't a minor divergence; it's the sector strength speaking. Funds haven't fully returned, just quietly peeking in some corners. - BTC: short-term support exists, but mid-term inflows aren't strong enough; chasing highs risks buying into a sentiment pulse - ETH: support remains, but its rebound depends on BTC stabilizing first; it rarely leads the charge - SOL: continuous outflows indicate the previously hot narrative is cooling off; short-term rebounds are easily overwhelmed by selling pressure Tonight, the US September CPI is expected at 3.6% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month. If the data is hotter, risk assets will be pressured first; if cooler, it might open a rebound window. But what the market truly trades on isn't the CPI itself, but "whether there will be new incremental funds willing to step in after the data is released." The bullish path is: CPI doesn't exceed expectations, BTC holds buying support, ETH maintains support, SOL's outflows slow, and sentiment shifts from hesitation to tentative FOMO. The bearish risk is: data is hotter, short-term inflows are quickly wiped out, SOL#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 But what's the most interesting part of this? You see its earnings report is so explosive, yet the stocks (TSM, xTSM) actually dipped slightly. This is a very typical case in financial markets of "buying on expectations, selling on the facts." Everyone already knew AI was profitable, and the stock price had risen before. Now that the results are out with a perfect score, but without "amazing" beyond everyone's imagination, investors feel there's no new story to tell and prefer to exit first. It's exactly the same pattern we often encounter in crypto trading where "good news turns into bad news upon realization."PPI debuts tonight
Whether inflation triggered by energy prices has truly spread to other sectors will be revealed at 8:30
With last night's core CPI data strengthening, PPI is very likely to also exceed expectations, which could push rate hike expectations up another notch
So don't go long tonight, prepare for the final jump
Bitcoin looks to pierce the 8,000 level with a needle, Ethereum at 2320, Gold at 4070 Blur's official website is shutting down, but the token surged 28%? Don't catch this kind of "shutdown + acquisition" fireworks with your hands
Blur itself just officially announced on the 12th that the frontend will shut down on November 12, and the new Blend lending will also stop. This former Ethereum NFT leader's trading volume has dropped by over 99%, basically heading towards obsolescence. However, on the 13th, Sushi's CEO retweeted saying "interested in discussing acquisition," and the token bounced out of the pit, surging up to +28% today to 0.0133.
Let's pour some cold water first: they only said they're willing to communicate, no price or terms were mentioned, so it's far from a real acquisition; plus, no one can clearly explain what use taking over a frontend that's about to shut down would have for the BLUR token. On the market, OKEx spot 24-hour volume is only about 1.51 million USDT, RSI is already at 81 overbought, and the price has surged beyond the Bollinger upper band at 0.0124. This is a typical thin market short squeeze fireworks—rises fast, crashes even more irrationally.
Watch for one signal: whether the acquisition talk turns from a verbal statement into a real announcement, and whether volume can hold above the intraday high of 0.0135; relying only on the word "discuss" to hold up, once the hype fades, this kind of token usually falls back down as fast as it rose. DYOR, not investment advice.
#BLUR #NFT #Sushi#美俄柴油直供推进，美国考虑放宽油轮制裁 $BTC
Last time it was the cargo that was loosened, this time they are considering loosening the ships.
▪️ On 10/14, U.S. officials revealed they are considering easing sanctions on some "shadow fleet" tankers
▪️ This involves ships previously listed for transporting oil products from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela
▪️ The plan is to allow these ships to resume transporting "legal oil" not prohibited by U.S. sanctions
▪️ The reason given is that tanker freight rates have risen to record highs
▪️ On 10/9, General License No. 135 was issued, authorizing the sale, delivery, and import of Russian diesel
▪️ This license is valid until April 7, 2027; Russia has committed to supplying 300,000 tons in October
The disagreement is not about whether sanctions will be eased, but whether the two rounds of easing involve the same thing.
Last time, what was allowed was the cargo: diesel could be sold, unloaded, and brought into port. This time, what they want to allow is the ships transporting the cargo — the same batch of ships previously listed because they transported sanctioned oil products. Cargo and ships are two separate locks; opening only the cargo lock does not bring freight rates down. Whether the chain is open depends on whether shipowners and insurers accept the orders.
The direction is to wait and see — the channel is only considered open when shipowners actually take orders and freight rates fall; if it remains in the discussion stage, it is just an expectation.Buy $BNB or buy $OKB? Although they are both exchange platform tokens, their development approaches are actually different:
1. BNB aims to build its own crypto kingdom, basically cutting into all web3 ecosystems: meme launchpad with four.meme; prediction market with predict.fun; decentralized exchange with $ASTER; public chain with BSC chain; RWA is also booming... It even hasn't missed out on VC business, with YZi Labs.
It is very much like the Tencent of web3, wanting to get involved in every profitable business in the industry.
2. OKB actually wants to build the financial infrastructure of web3, and it is compliant infrastructure. So you will find many of OKX's moves are very restrained.
For example, in the prediction market, OKX just treats it as an Outcomes event, probably due to compliance concerns.
But for compliant things, OKX does very well, such as the OKX wallet, which veteran users basically all use because it is so powerful. For example, Dogecoin, the data is so comprehensive, much better than other wallets.
There is also OKX Pay, RWA, Exchange OS, etc., all following the "on-chain trading + real-world payment + asset settlement" financial infrastructure route.
One has a market cap of 100 billion, the other 2.5 billion. Both can be bought and both have opportunities for token price surges. #OKX百万规划师 $ETH 2400 directly broke through
$ETH
The low point hit around 2310
Now fluctuating back and forth around 2370
The double bottom that everyone talked about before has already been broken
Looking back at the trend: the 2400 on the 8th was just a spike, the 13th tested the support again, today it directly broke down with a real body
This is not a simple shakeout, the floor support was directly pulled away
Those who called for a V-shaped rebound at 2580, those who said 2500 would hold, and those who insisted 2400 was a solid bottom are all trapped now
People who entered around 2700 need the market to rally nearly 20% to break even
Many are still stubbornly holding onto their beliefs
The market trend has weakened, after the CPI release, bulls gave up before the data
Don't rush to bottom fish at this stage, it's easy to get caught breaking down repeatedly
There is still room to fall below 2300
Don't be blindly optimistic during rebounds; many rebounds are just upper-level funds taking the opportunity to exit
After the rebound ends, the market will continue to drop, and currently, long positions can easily become fuel for the downtrend $ETH Detailed Reasons for Today's Gold Price Increase
Last night, the CPI data exceeded expectations, causing an instant sharp drop in gold prices, which was a short-term panic sell-off. Today is a rebound repair after an oversell, not the start of a new bullish trend.
1. Federal Reserve officials' remarks ease rate hike expectations (most crucial)
After the CPI release, the market once bet that the Fed might raise rates again, but then Fed officials expressed dovish views, saying there is no need to raise rates immediately. The market lowered the probability of a rate hike, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell from highs. Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset; as U.S. Treasury yields decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, leading funds to flow back into gold and pushing prices up.
2. U.S. Dollar Index decline
Cooling rate hike expectations weakened the dollar. Gold is priced in dollars; as the dollar falls, overseas buyers find it cheaper to buy gold, increasing demand and benefiting gold price gains.
3. Technical aspect: short-term oversell + short sellers taking profits
The previous night saw a rapid sharp drop, with many short positions already profitable. Today, shorts choose to close positions and exit, passively pushing gold prices higher; meanwhile, the low price attracts short-term bottom-fishing funds, forming rebound momentum.
4. Medium- to long-term buying support
Global central banks continue to purchase gold, maintaining a base position that absorbs some selling pressure after a big drop, limiting further deep declines in gold prices and facilitating rebound repair.
Current Market and Key Levels
Resistance: 4170 (strong resistance; only if it holds above here will rebound space open)
Support: 4100, 4075
Key point: This is currently just a rebound, not a reversal. If U.S. Treasury yields rise again later, the rebound rally is likely to end and face renewed pressure.After the deep V, three signals are more real than the rebound
The sharp drop was caused by long liquidations, with 170,000 people liquidated and 815 million evaporated, of which longs accounted for 689 million. The rally was just to fill the liquidity gap, no new money, considered a repair. The further drop was due to weak ETF buying, unable to hold.
Signal one: Whales quietly accumulate. Holdings rose to 3.03 million BTC, ETF net inflow turned from an outflow of 83,000 BTC earlier this year to a net inflow of 2,300 BTC. Big money and small retail are not on the same rhythm. 🐋
Signal two: Retail retreats, institutions leverage up. In September, institutional USDT borrowing increased by 83.3%, retail decreased by 17.2%. Chips concentrate among a few, more honest than candlesticks. 📊
Signal three: MSTR premium disappears. Strategy holds 848,000 BTC, about 70.6 billion, but market cap is only 51.1 billion. Issuing shares to buy coins changed from premium to discount, cycle logic changed. 🔄
The deep V is just the surface; the real change is in capital structure and pricing logic. Personal analysis, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 As soon as the inflation data hits, does $BTC drop first out of respect? The real test is yet to come📊
Last night, the US September CPI was released: year-on-year 3.7%, higher than expected, core at 2.6%, with gasoline prices adding fuel to the fire. BTC slid from 83,000 to below 82,000, billions of dollars in long positions were liquidated, and the market instantly turned red. US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened simultaneously, putting pressure on risk assets collectively.
But one data point does not signify the end of the trend. Energy disruptions involve Middle East factors; core inflation is sticky but not runaway. High interest rates suppress valuations in the short term, but BTC's long-term narrative remains intact; ETF funds flow in and out, so don’t directly interpret this as institutional withdrawal. Panic often amplifies volatility more than data.
The real focus is on the 15th: PPI will show production-side pressure, retail sales will reflect consumer resilience, and combined with Federal Reserve officials’ statements, interest rate expectations may be repriced. If data cools down, hopes for a pause in rate hikes will return; if it exceeds expectations again, the crypto market will inevitably remain under pressure.
My stance: no rush to bottom-fish, no panic selling. Wait for data and capital to give direction before making a move. The more chaotic the market, the steadier your hand must be—don’t let emotions trade for you🧘♂️#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $ETH current status: around 2368, -5% in 24 hours, daily range 2342–2425
Compared with yesterday's prediction:
• 2400 did see a rebound today — the intraday high reached 2425 but couldn't hold, now back below 2400. This means the "1-hour close above 2400" bullish signal appeared but didn't sustain, a false breakout pullback, so the market strength confirmation is still pending
• 2479 hasn't been touched yet, not even approached, so the resistance above remains valid
• 2313 / 2296 bottom lines are temporarily safe — today's low was 2342, still some distance from the weekly bottom line at 2296, bears haven't pushed lower
So according to my system, the current state can be summarized as: weak pullback confirming resistance, no directional choice made yet.
The observation points remain unchanged, and because today's pullback failed, the signal's weight is actually clearer:
1. Another push to 2400 with a 1-hour close above it → only then is there a chance to test 2479 again; today's move reaching 2425 then falling back shows active selling pressure around 2400–2425
2. If each rebound is lower (2425 → a lower secondary high), then breaking below 2342 → high probability of retesting 2313 or even 2296
3. Breaking 2296 → according to your rules, weekly structure is lost, turning bearish In 2025, the number of NFT issuances will increase to 1.34 billion, but the transaction volume will drop 37% year-on-year to $5.63 billion, with the average transaction price falling below $100. The market's speculative enthusiasm has significantly cooled, but the continued expansion on the supply side itself indicates that the underlying demand has not disappeared.
The value logic of NFTs is undergoing a structural transformation. The 1.0 era dominated by speculative avatars has ended, and the next growth phase will be driven by tokenized physical assets—Pokémon cards, Rolex watches, digital tickets, and game items are becoming the new narrative core. Naver Pay has implemented NFT digital tickets at the National Sports Games, integrating entry verification and tourism consumption rights, proving that NFTs as "usable, redeemable digital rights certificates" have real commercial scenarios.
The maturity of technical infrastructure supports this transformation. Layer 2 solutions like Immutable X have reduced NFT transaction costs to nearly zero and increased throughput to over 9,000 TPS, systematically resolving the efficiency bottlenecks that have long constrained large-scale applications. Robinhood Chain, launched less than two months ago, has daily NFT transaction volumes exceeding twice that of the Ethereum mainnet, validating the ability of a low-threshold on-chain environment to stimulate user demand.
#索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？
#OKX星球话题来啦 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
SanDisk's report on October 29: Revenue forecast of 10.3-10.8 billion USD, yet stock price plunged nearly 6% — ChangXin's breakthrough triggers sector revaluation, was the NAND leader unfairly punished?
SanDisk (SNDK) will release its FY2027 Q1 earnings report after the U.S. market close on October 29. Revenue forecast: the company previously expected quarterly revenue between 10.3 billion and 10.8 billion USD.
Core driver: With the growth in AI data center demand and rising NAND flash prices, the market is focused on whether the storage business can sustain high growth and further boost profits.
Screenshot community opinions point out that the recent pressure on the storage sector is mainly due to ChangXin Technology's breakthrough, which led the market to collectively reprice the entire storage sector.
At the same time, some market views warn of risks: the rebound in storage stocks after the sharp drop is an oversold rebound rather than a trend reversal. This means sector sentiment has not fully recovered, and capital is still cautious.
ChangXin's breakthrough suppresses DRAM valuations, while SanDisk operates in the NAND business — in this round of collective repricing of the storage sector, is SanDisk a high-quality asset that was "unfairly punished," or just a cyclical stock following the trend? The October 29 earnings report will be a key moment to verify its independent logic.The US September CPI was released last night: year-on-year 3.7%, higher than August's 3.4%; excluding food and energy, the year-on-year rate is 2.6%. In the same report, seasonally adjusted gasoline prices rose 9.1% in a single month, contributing more than half of the overall monthly increase.
Declaring "inflation is out of control across the board" just because of 3.7%, or saying "it's nothing" based on 2.6%, only shows half the picture. A sharp rise in gasoline prices does not mean every item increased by 9.1%; the core rate being lower than the overall rate also doesn't mean you can just remove fuel costs from your living expenses.
I want to see clearly where the price increases are concentrated before discussing sustainability. Data is not meant to give bulls and bears each a hammer to hit whichever number suits their view.
$BTC #软银集团加码OpenAI，财报聚焦投资回报
On October 1, SoftBank dropped the final $10 billion to complete its $30 billion follow-up investment plan in OpenAI, but on October 13, its stock price plunged 8.5% in Tokyo, down 38% from its all-time high.
Borrowing at a high 9.75% interest rate to invest in OpenAI, stock price has already dropped 38%
SoftBank is indeed ruthless this time. The last $10 billion arrived on October 1, fully fulfilling the $30 billion follow-up investment plan, with a total investment of $64.6 billion and about 13% ownership.
All the money is borrowed. On September 24, it issued bonds worth about $11.1 billion, maturing as late as 2034, with a coupon rate as high as 9.75%. Borrowing high-interest debt to invest in OpenAI, which has not yet gone public, this calculation is indeed risky.
On October 13, the stock price plummeted 8.5% to ¥5310, down 38% from the June 2 high of ¥8632. Without decent returns in the earnings season, the market will not hesitate to sell off. TSMC's profit soars 69%, is the AI boom now stable?
TSMC's net profit for Q3 increased by about 69% year-on-year, reaching NT$763.1 billion, with revenue around NT$1.494 trillion, both setting new records and exceeding market expectations. Judging by this report alone, AI chip demand is indeed still very strong.
But what I think is truly worth watching is not just the new highs, but the costs and expectations behind this high growth. Advanced processes, 2-nanometer ramp-up, and overseas factory construction all require heavy investment; TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for this year remains between $60 billion and $64 billion. The market now wants to know: can AI demand visibility extend to 2027? Can profit margins withstand the costs of capacity expansion?
This is also why a good earnings report does not necessarily mean the stock price must rise. The stock price trades on "whether the results exceed already very high expectations," not just on whether the numbers look good enough. If everyone bets on AI's continued explosion, even strong performance can still lead to profit-taking if future guidance does not get raised further.
High-performance computing already accounts for about 68% of revenue; the stronger AI gets, the more the market depends on this growth mainline. TSMC's real watershed moment may not be whether it can still grow, but how high the market has priced in growth expectations for the AI industry chain. Do you think the market is currently underestimating the sustainability of AI demand, or has it already priced in the good news for the next few years? #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 $TSM After testing the resistance level near $87,000 twice, Bitcoin's price has started to show signs of a pullback.
Yesterday's 3D candlestick chart displayed a bearish hammer, indicating that Bitcoin has actually entered a correction phase after more than 3 months of rebound.
To determine whether Bitcoin will experience a pullback in the medium term, we need to wait until the end of this week to see how the weekly close turns out. $BTC #BlackRock Crypto Asset Scale Grows 63%
[Old Leek Observation] BlackRock's crypto asset scale grew 63% in a single quarter. Have institutional funds really returned?
BlackRock's digital asset management scale rose to about $79.6 billion in the third quarter, up $30.8 billion from $48.8 billion in the previous quarter. This increase alone is indeed impressive.
But what I care more about is where exactly this $30.8 billion came from.
According to related reports, about $22.9 billion came from the rise in crypto asset prices, and about $7.9 billion came from net capital inflows. In other words, the bulk of the scale increase is due to the book value appreciation from price rises, not because institutions suddenly poured in hundreds of billions.
However, the net inflow itself is still worth noting. It indicates that investors did increase their allocations that quarter, and institutional demand is not entirely propped up by the market.
For $BTC and $ETH, this data provides a direction for observation: if funds continue to flow in later, even if prices pull back, institutional buying could become a supporting force in the market; but if net inflows weaken quickly, the rise in management scale cannot be simply interpreted as a long-term bullish signal.
Don't just focus on BlackRock's asset scale hitting new highs; what really matters is how much new capital it can attract next quarter.
Scale growth reflects the past, but sustained net inflows better indicate what the funds intend to do next. $ZEC #阿斯麦Q3营收创新高，远期需求能否兑现？ $ASML
Revenue increased by 25% quarter-over-quarter, profit increased by 70%.
▪️ Q3 net sales of €11.662 billion, approximately +25% quarter-over-quarter, breaking €10 billion in a single quarter for the first time
▪️ Net profit of €4.96 billion, approximately +70% quarter-over-quarter; gross margin 57.5%
▪️ Net sales close to the high end of the previous forecast range, full-year outlook raised for the third consecutive quarter
▪️ Some customers have started order discussions for equipment in 2029–2030
▪️ Stock price down 2.49% on the day of the earnings release
The disagreement is not about whether this quarter exceeded expectations, but why revenue and profit grew at different rates.
The cost of a lithography machine mainly lies in R&D and capacity. The additional unit sold spreads the fixed costs already paid. Revenue +25%, profit +70%, this difference is operating leverage: the equipment manufacturer earns not from each unit sold, but from capacity utilization—the marginal cost of selling one more unit is very low.
The outlook is cautious—gross margin must hold above 58% and order visibility must continue to expand to be considered fulfilled; otherwise, leverage could amplify in the opposite direction.#Can SanDisk's storage business high growth continue? Title: Saudi Aramco Headquarters Attacked and Set on Fire, Yet Brent Crude Closes Down 0.9% — Why Is the Geopolitical Premium Not Working This Time?
The market is watching whether the conflict will further affect oil fields, refineries, and export terminals, as well as whether facility security and transportation risks can impact actual crude supply and international oil prices. Energy giant executives have begun withdrawing from related activities, marking a substantial escalation in security risks to Middle Eastern energy facilities.
The market uses the "Brent closing down" to tell investors: the pricing power of geopolitics belongs only to "actual supply cuts," not to "symbolic attacks." As long as oil fields and ports remain intact, it is difficult for oil prices to replay the "panic-driven surge" scenario.On October 14, 2026, rising oil prices, core CPI exceeding expectations, and escalating AI credit risk formed a "triple hit," triggering a market-wide sell-off.
The real driving force was the hot core CPI. Broad-based inflationary pressure shattered the illusion of "ignoring energy volatility," with the probability of a rate hike in October briefly surpassing 50%, and the December probability soaring to 95%. Short-term yields surged first, followed by an accelerated stock market decline that triggered bond buying flows; the 10-year yield retreated from its intraday high but still closed higher. The market began to price in expectations of two more rate hikes next year. Credit market cracks widened, with CRWV bonds falling to the $70 range, data center-related spreads widening exponentially, CCC-rated spreads breaking above 1000 basis points, and IG and HY spreads approaching previous highs again. The tech sector's credit performance lagged at the bottom.
Stock market trading activity noticeably increased. The NDX and RTY led declines of about 2%, marking the largest single-day drop since June; the Dow was relatively resilient, with the S&P in the middle. AI concept stocks underperformed the S&P 500 excluding AI by 840 basis points cumulatively this week. CoreWeave plunged 15% at midday, with DOCN, HUT, NBIS, and others also sharply down; ORCL fell 9%. The Gartner report stated that if AI capital expenditures continue at the current pace, by 2030, 80% of NeoClouds will struggle to operate independently, further intensifying concerns over revolving financing and credit contagion. The Mag7 collectively weakened, and the financial sector was dragged down by disappointing US bank earnings. The S&P has fallen below the 7750–7775 positive gamma support range.Rising CPI makes Fed rate cuts increasingly unlikely. Cutting rates too early could fuel spending and undo progress toward the 2% inflation target. Markets may hope for easier money, but the Fed cannot ignore persistent price pressures. Higher-for-longer rates could weigh on Bitcoin, altcoins, and stocks as liquidity stays tight. Until inflation cools convincingly, holding rates steady looks more realistic than cutting. #CPI #Fed #Crypto
#USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus One glaring point in this round of decline: BTC dropped about 3%, while ETH fell more than 6%. Even more dramatic were the liquidations. In the past 24 hours, the total market liquidation volume approached $1 billion. Just BTC and ETH futures saw about $483 million liquidated, with ETH around $286 million and BTC about $197 million. Here's the question. BTC's market size is much larger than ETH's, so why did ETH get liquidated more severely this time? I think this time it’s not that ETH suddenly faced some isolated “major negative news.” It’s more like once the market entered risk-off mode, ETH exposed its most vulnerable side first. BTC is increasingly seen as the “core asset” in crypto. When the market is good, ETH has greater elasticity; but once the market starts to reduce risk, many funds’ first reaction is: cut ETH first, and only then BTC. These past two days are a typical example. The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than expected, and core CPI was also on the hot side. After the data release, rate hike expectations quickly intensified, and the dollar, US Treasury yields, and risk assets were repriced together. This is unfavorable for BTC, and even tougher for assets like ETH with greater volatility. But what really makes me feel that ETH was “hit harder” this time is leverage. Currently, ETH futures open interest is about $30 billion, BTC about $52 billion. Yet in this round of liquidations, ETH saw $286 million liquidated, while BTC only $197 million. In other words:$BTC
On-chain spot demand increased by 69,000 coins, so why can't it withstand over $100 million in liquidations within an hour?
Data disclosed by CryptoQuant on October 14 shows that after two months of contraction, the total Bitcoin demand has recently rebounded by about 69,000 BTC, indicating that spot buying is indeed recovering. However, on the same day, CoinGlass statistics show that within just one hour after the US September CPI release, over $100 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in the crypto market, with total liquidations exceeding $220 million in 24 hours. BTC OKX spot is 80898.8, SUI OKX spot is 0.9844.
The contradiction here is clear: spot buying accumulates slowly over weeks and months, while high-leverage contracts get trampled in minutes under macro shocks. Slow spot buying can't save fast leverage. I judge that until the existing long leverage in the contract market is completely cleared, the cyclical demand recovery of 69,000 coins alone is insufficient to immediately trigger a V-shaped reversal. In the coming week, BTC will continue to oscillate and trade between 79,500 and 82,500, and SUI, having fallen below 1, will be constrained below 1.05 in the short term. If the overall contract funding rate turns significantly negative and BTC volume surges back above 83,800, then the consolidation and bottoming judgment will be invalid.
$BTC
$SUI
#OnChainDataAndLiquidations#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
• Core beneficiary of the AI wave: Revenue and net profit hit record highs, mainly driven by strong global demand for high-performance computing (HPC) and AI chips. TSMC's absolute technological leadership in advanced processes (such as 3nm, 5nm) makes it an indispensable leader.
• Extremely strong profitability: Gross margin approaches 68%, demonstrating its high bargaining power with downstream customers (such as Apple, NVIDIA, etc.), and the yield and capacity utilization of advanced processes remain high.
• Market sentiment optimistic but stock price calm: Although the financial report data exploded, the chart shows that related targets (TSM, xTSM) only rose slightly by 0.08% and 0.04% respectively, reflecting that the market had already priced in the positive news before the earnings release. Going forward, attention should be paid to the future pace of capacity expansion and potential geopolitical risks.#Anthropic称三季度营收升至168亿美元并实现盈利 $ANTHROPIC
Revenue increased 20 times year-over-year, but quarter-over-quarter dropped from 143% to 46%.
▪️ Q3 revenue $16.8 billion, quarter-over-quarter +46%, approximately 20 times year-over-year, and achieved quarterly profitability
▪️ Revenue path: Q1 $4.73 billion → Q2 $11.5 billion → Q3 $16.8 billion
▪️ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate Q2 +143% → Q3 +46%, down two-thirds over three quarters
▪️ $16.8 billion is at the lower end of the market expectation range of $16–18.5 billion
▪️ The company is seeking investor support for the IPO expected to launch in November
The disagreement is not about whether it is profitable, but which is closer to the current situation: "20 times" or "46%".
The 20 times year-over-year uses a very small base from last year, while the 46% quarter-over-quarter is its current speed. $16.8 billion is still at the lower end of the expected range—the market optimism has already gotten ahead of the numbers.
The direction is to wait and see — Q4 quarter-over-quarter must hold above 40% for the curve to hold; if it continues to decline, the valuation anchor needs to shift to the annualized column.#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
The South Korean stock market completely collapsed today.
The KOSPI fell nearly 8% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading. Samsung Electronics dropped over 8 points, SK Hynix fell more than 7 points, and the Nikkei 225 also dropped over 4%. Overnight in the US, the Nasdaq fell 1.88%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been falling for six consecutive trading days. The entire global tech sector is taking a beating, each worse than the last.
Why such a sharp drop? The US September CPI exceeded expectations, reigniting fears of interest rate hikes. AI infrastructure financing costs are rising, tech stocks are already highly valued, and the storage industry faces intense competition. ASML's earnings report clearly showed strong equipment demand, but investors are not buying it; they are recalculating whether AI investments can actually pay off. TSMC's earnings report has become the next key verification to watch.
So what impact does this have on our crypto circle? I'll tell you two points.
First, global tech stocks are collectively under pressure, so risk appetite will definitely decline.
Second, it's still unclear whether this round of adjustment is a valuation correction triggered by high interest rates or if semiconductor profit expectations are starting to weaken. If it's the former, the market can recover after the drop. If it's the latter, the entire AI hardware narrative will need to be repriced.
My view is simple. In the current market, don't rush to bottom-fish tech stocks or Bitcoin. Wait for TSMC's earnings report to see if the real demand for AI hardware has collapsed before making a decision.
What do you think? $BTC $ETH Volume increase ≠ revenue growth, don't skip the second verification
Scaling up the business is like opening a floodgate, the water noise is loud, but accounts must be calculated separately.
$HYPE: When cutting fees to grab volume, don't just focus on transaction value. If the fee rate is cut to one-tenth of the original, volume must increase tenfold to break even; if not, it's exchanging revenue for hype. Later, look at effective fee rate, real revenue, and repurchase retention (￣▽￣)~*
$AAVE: Raising the ceiling just moves the limit, it doesn't mean borrowing demand will automatically fill it. Watch the utilization rate and whether new loans cluster in a few assets. Capacity is permission; revenue depends on actual lending 😉
$XRP: An increase in account numbers doesn't equal an equal amount of buy orders. Minimum reserves and designated reserves occupy funds; rules or deletions can change net occupation. It's better to look at net new accounts and net occupation changes, rather than directly translating account growth into buying demand 🤔
In short: scale is the entrance, quality is the exit. Transaction value, limits, and account numbers are just the first half; revenue, utilization, and net occupation are the second half (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins BTC has really been struggling these past two days. Yesterday, the US September CPI was released, showing a month-over-month increase of +0.6% and a year-over-year increase of +3.7%, both hotter than the market had originally hoped for. What's more troublesome is that the core CPI also rose by 0.3% month-over-month, indicating that the issue isn't just oil prices. After the data came out, concerns about the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates reignited, and BTC was pushed down from above $83,000 to around $80,000. Currently, BTC is hovering around $81,000, with today's low already touching about $80,400. Then tonight there's another hurdle. At 20:30 Beijing time, the US September PPI will be released. The BLS official schedule has confirmed the release tonight. The market currently expects the PPI to rise about +0.6% month-over-month, and the core PPI about +0.3%. In other words, the market has already prepared in advance for "producer prices to remain relatively hot." So the real point of interest tonight isn't whether the PPI is high or not. It's whether it is higher than the market expects. If it ends up significantly above expectations, for example, if energy and service prices continue to push upward, then the concerns brought by yesterday's CPI won't be a one-time thing. The market will start reconsidering one thing: Does the Federal Reserve still need to continue raising interest rates? For BTC, this is uncomfortable. As interest rate expectations rise, the US dollar and US Treasury yields usually strengthen again, making it easier for risk assets to be reduced further. After yesterday's CPI release, the market's expectation for another rate hike in October has already clearly heated up, though today it has cooled somewhat after more cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials.