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On the surface, it looks like a rebound, but underneath there's still a tug of war. Holding 81500— is it courage or luck? Last night, watching BTC's lower shadow candle, my mood was quite subtle. The price once dropped to 81523, then was forcibly supported around 81400, and now it's back at 81862, even standing above the super trend line at 81616. It looks like the buyers won, but I'm hesitant to cheer along. Because the lively part is the candlestick, but the macro environment is cold. The KDJ has already surged into the overbought zone at 86.6/81.9, the moving averages above are dense and heavy, and the short term could wobble at any time. More importantly, Goolsbee hawked overnight: US service sector inflation remains above 5%, core inflation is sticky, and he doesn't rule out further rate hikes. This is not just background noise; it's the sword hanging over the bulls. So now I prefer to interpret this market move as an emotional test rather than a trend reversal. The buying did show strength at 81400, but the macro bearish factors haven't been fully digested yet. Those driven by FOMO see the long lower shadow and want to rush in, while the hesitant watch the macro and dare not move; narrative fatigue is still present. What the market is really trading is "can it hold first," not "can it fly immediately." The bullish path: as long as 81500 holds, short-term sentiment will gradually recover. Once BTC stabilizes, ETH and SOL, which are high beta, may regain attention, and risk appetite will return. The bearish risk: if macro pressure continues or 82000 can't be broken, this rebound could easily turn into a bull trap, and altcoins will likely fall faster than anyone else. This kind of levelVolume-price relationship#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高, Core trump card: Gross margin guidance declines, cracks appear in expectations
① Behind the impressive data lies hidden concern: Q3 gross margin guidance at 65%-67%, significantly lower than Q2's 67.7%.
② The market begins to worry that increased capital expenditure will squeeze profit margins, with uncertainty sharply rising over AI capacity expansion.
3. Market transmission: Good news fully priced in, funds vote with their feet
① After the earnings report release, TSM and related tokens like xTSM fell more than 2.7% instead of rising, as funds chose to cash out at highs.
② This indicates that the market's frenzy over AI computing power is being harshly scrutinized by rational financial metrics, revealing expectation gaps.
Core summary:
The long-term AI logic remains unchanged, but short-term sentiment hits a freezing point! When earnings realization meets declining profit margins, profit-taking at highs becomes the main theme. Don't be dazzled by superficial prosperity; keep a close eye on subsequent capital expenditures 📉 $SNDK $SK HYNIX｜Latest strategy for the storage sector: Rebound under pressure, proceed with caution!
Brothers, today let's continue discussing the storage chip sector. At this stage, my short-term view on this sector remains unchanged: do not blindly chase the dip, focus on observing short signals after the rebound.
🔎 1. Why is the storage sector continuously under pressure?
Recently, the storage sector has been affected by multiple news factors, and market sentiment has clearly weakened. Some bulls who entered at previous highs are also facing significant holding pressure. With concentrated capital adjustments, the volatility of related stocks may further increase.
Currently, the key factors to watch are as follows:
- Changes in foreign capital flow: The flow of foreign capital in the Korean stock market deserves close tracking, especially semiconductor heavyweight stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. However, the claim that foreign capital outflows have reached $141.5 billion still requires verification of statistical criteria, time frame, and actual data.
- Intensified industry competition: China's storage chip industry continues to develop, and market assessments of industry competition, future pricing power, and corporate profit expectations are also changing.
- Impact of buyback news: Progress on Samsung's related buyback plans may affect short-term market sentiment, but specific impacts still need confirmation through official announcements.
- Changes in policy expectations: If South Korea does not introduce new support measures, it remains uncertain whether short-term market sentiment can improve.
📊 2. Tonight at the U.S. stock market open, focus on $SNDK!
From a short-term trading perspective,U.S. September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%; core PPI rose 0.7% month-over-month, expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%. Both readings significantly exceeded market expectations and accelerated noticeably compared to August. Historically, the PPI month-over-month has been positive and rising for two consecutive months: 1.1% in May, turning negative to -0.3% in June, back to 0% in July, rising to 0.4% in August, and September's 1.3% is the highest in this series. The core PPI's 0.7% is also the highest growth rate in recent months, indicating that price pressures excluding food and energy are expanding, not just a single component pushing up the overall reading. The simultaneous acceleration of producer prices means that the cost increases faced by companies are spreading. Whether this can be passed on to consumer prices will be a key observation point for the market to judge the inflation path. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 US September PPI rose 1.3% , the PPI month-on-month has been positive and rising for two consecutive months: 1.1% in May, turning negative to -0.3% in June, back to 0% in July, rising to 0.4% in August, and September's 1.3% is the highest in this sequence. The core PPI's 0.7% is also the highest growth rate in recent months, indicating that price pressures excluding food and energy are also expanding, rather than a single component pushing up the overall reading. The simultaneous acceleration ofThe old meme coin really can't hold up this time, with a 50x short position showing considerable floating profit, but high leverage is always like licking a blade. In the background, a certain institution's $DOGE ETF was recently liquidated directly, spot funds have had zero inflow for several consecutive days accompanied by outflows in the tens of millions, macro conditions are tight, and while BTC consolidates sideways, altcoins are the first to fall.
The trading logic is based on "institutional retreat + high beta catch-up drop": short opened near 0.086, accelerating after breaking the psychological 0.08 level, marked at 0.0795. There is a big divergence between whale buying and selling, the rebound with shrinking volume is not a bottom. Technically, the daily moving averages are all suppressing price, the 4-hour rebound hits the midline and then falls, volume decreases on rises and increases on falls, the bearish structure is complete.
In terms of operation, close half to lock in profit and push stop loss to breakeven, watch the remaining position for support at previous lows, fully exit if price returns above the entry level. Meme coins without new narratives are purely emotional games, they fall hardest when macro is tight, only the money taken off the table counts, don't be greedy for the last penny. $ETH $BTC #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 US PPI September 2026: +1.3%
Forecast: +0.6% Previous month: +0.4%
Annual PPI: 6.3% Previous month: 5.6%
Core PPI monthly: +0.5% Forecast: +0.3%
Trading perspective: Don't rush to catch the bottom!
Combined with the previously poor CPI, this PPI significantly increases the risk that the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy. But to determine the next direction, the most important signals are the reactions after the announcement of bond yields, USD, and Nasdaq — not just the PPI figure alone.
#USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus $BTC $ETH BTC 80807, many people are asking? Will it break below 80,000?
I'm watching this number closely, my palms are a bit sweaty. Just about 800 away from the 80,000 whole number mark, it's a matter of a needle's point.
Let's first look at the current situation. September CPI exceeded expectations, core inflation month-on-month 0.3%, year-on-year 2.6%, both higher than expected. The probability of a rate hike surged from 20% to 49%. Although Polymarket shows the probability of no change has returned to 79%, market sentiment has already been dampened. In the past 24 hours, the entire network's liquidations approached 1 billion, with longs accounting for 91.6%, a batch of long positions has been taken out.
Now looking at the 80,000 defense line itself. This is not a randomly drawn line. The largest buy orders in Binance spot order book are stacked near 80,000, the average ETF holding cost is about 81,500. Although the price broke below during intraday on October 8 and 13, it closed back above.
The fragile points are also obvious. Glassnode bluntly states "the upper side is more fragile than the lower side," there are a large number of long liquidation orders accumulated below 80,000, and another cluster near 75,000.
$BTC key levels I mark:
Support: 80,000-80,500, whether it breaks intraday is the first signal; if it closes below 80,500 and ETFs continue to outflow, the "real market average price" at 78,000 is the next stop, then further down to 75,000-77,000.
Resistance: 81,500-82,000, only if it stands back above can it be considered recovering; above 83,000 is when we can talk about continuation of the rebound.$SNDK was like it was injected with adrenaline a few days ago—quantum-resistant, independent L1, detached from Ethereum, and the community got hyped as soon as the name came out. But if you look closely, the voting is just a preliminary step; the real mainnet won't arrive until next year, and everything in between is just flying expectations.
The trading logic is simple: the narrative pushes the price too high, and unlocking increases selling pressure. Early holders' cost basis is far below the current price, and tokens are released monthly. When the price rebounds with low volume and falls with high volume, it means profit-taking and token recipients are exiting. The daily chart has shifted from a surge to a pullback, and derivatives positions are crowded again—chasing longs at this point is the easiest way to get shaken out.
My short position doesn't depend on "whether it will rise tomorrow," but on "whether the market can hold after expectations are realized." Currently, I am closing half to lock in profits and moving the stop loss near the cost basis. For the remaining position, I will watch for support at previous lows and exit if it breaks key resistance—no romanticizing the narrative. $ZEC $STRK #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 The probability of a Fed rate hike has dropped below 30%, even after the release of high CPI data.
Today, the PPI data is about to be released, with an expectation of 5.3%.
Unless we see the PPI reach the 5.7%-5.8% level, I believe the rate hike will be paused this month.On-Chain Health Check for CORE: Three Data Sets, One Conclusion
There are always only two voices in the CORE posts on the Square. "Ten-thousand-fold potential" and "Imminent zeroing," arguing for almost two years.
Today, I take no side. I just do one thing: open the blockchain explorer and turn CORE's underwear inside out, showing you page by page.
No hype, no bashing, no motivational speeches. On-chain data doesn't lie; you judge after seeing it yourself.
First data set: 69 million ghost tokens, where are they now?
Let's clarify the core facts of the 8.31 vulnerability.
The v1.0.26 hard fork destroyed over 150 million excess issued CORE at the protocol level, pulling the total supply back to a hard cap of 2.1 billion. The chain didn't break, blocks are still produced, and staking rewards recovered within 48 hours.
But the hard fork can only upgrade forward; it cannot roll back already confirmed transactions. The 69 million CORE transferred out to external wallets before the fork execution have not been reclaimed, locked, or destroyed to this day.
The cost basis of these tokens is almost zero. What is their current status?
Some in the community have tracked them: some addresses remain silent long-term, some split into smaller addresses in batches. The core issue is not "whether they will dump," but "you don't know when they will dump."
As long as these tokens have no on-chain verifiable lock-up or destruction plan, the valuation ceiling of every rebound round is locked. This is not an emotional judgment but a structural problem.
Second data set: How much of the TVL is real money?
Core DAO is currently the largest Bitcoin sidechain in the BTCFi track by TVL, locking assets over $314 million, staking over 5,500 BTC, accounting for about 26% of all Bitcoin sidechain TVL. Over 76% of Bitcoin hash power participates in maintaining network security. Since mainnet launch, cumulative TVL exceeds $1 billion, with over 31 million unique addresses.
But the TVL metric needs to be broken down.
On-chain analysis shows over 86% of ecosystem TVL is concentrated in "lending + re-staking" modules. What is the essence of these two modules? Leverage stacking. The March 2026 50% CORE crash triggered the Colend liquidation cascade, exposing this structural risk for the first time.
What’s truly worth tracking is the institutional staking volume of lstBTC—long-term locked BTC is the real incremental narrative of BTCFi. Short-term arbitrage and wash trading funds will withdraw once the market changes, causing TVL to shrink instantly.
Currently, the whole network stakes about 7,600+ BTC and 300 million+ CORE, with about 35% of BTC stakers also locking CORE. This number shows the dual staking mechanism is genuinely operating, but staking rewards mainly come from CORE inflation issuance linearly released over 81 years, not external income.
More people are staking, but where does the staked money come from? This question remains unanswered.
Third data set: Is ecosystem fee income enough to cover inflation?
This is the most painful of the three data sets.
The innate structure of CORE tokenomics: staking yields go to BTC stakers; CORE itself has no natural cash flow. The network continuously issues tokens for node rewards and ecosystem incentives, essentially perpetual inflation.
2026 is defined by Core as the "revenue era," with the core logic being to use BTC staking income, SatPay card fees, and other ecosystem revenues to repurchase CORE on the secondary market, replacing inflation subsidies.
But the flagship product SatPay has announced a delay due to licensing and regulatory issues, with over 20,000 users waiting in line and no set launch date. Without real cash flow, the buyback plan is currently just a long-term vision.
How much real income is on-chain now? Colend lending protocol’s 30-day fees are about $400,000, protocol income about $12,700. Core cross-chain bridge 30-day fees about $255.
These numbers are nowhere near the monthly token issuance market value.
The conclusion is straightforward: ecosystem fee income is currently far from covering inflation, and CORE holders’ equity is continuously diluted.
Putting the three data sets together, what’s the answer?
Ghost tokens have no disposal plan + lstBTC institutional funds have not scaled + fee income cannot cover inflation.
None of the three conditions are improving.
This is not a verdict that "CORE will go to zero," nor a forecast that "CORE will take off." This is a project still running but without a commercial closed loop, stuck in the middle.
The chain is alive, code is updating, 76% of Bitcoin hash power protects it, and the hard fork emergency action was indeed effective. But between "being alive" and "running smoothly" lies 69 million tokens, a delayed flagship product, and a revenue curve that hasn’t started yet.
On the practical side, three points:
First, watch the on-chain transfer records of ghost tokens. If one day these addresses show large-scale transfers to exchange wallets, no matter what others say, you know what to do.
Second, watch the institutional staking volume of lstBTC, not total TVL. Total TVL can be leveraged up; institutional long-term staking volume is the real signal.
Third, watch official announcements of SatPay. Product launch doesn’t mean immediate scale income, but without the product, nothing else matters.
Stories can be told arbitrarily, but on-chain data doesn’t lie.
Among these three data sets, which one do you care about most?
$CORE The cold splash from the CPI caused the S&P to end its streak of 53 consecutive days without a drop exceeding 1% last night. Looking at the pre-market today, the KOSPI has already crashed 7.6%, with SK Hynix and Samsung falling 11% and 9.5% respectively. What is the money doing? In one sentence: running away from "storytelling" places and hiding in places with "cash flow." It's very clear in the pre-market. Storage chips continue to get hit, with SanDisk down over 4% and Micron down 3.7%. But interestingly, the triple short semiconductor ETF (SOXS) rose nearly 7% pre-market. The money is not selling semiconductors; it is directly betting on semiconductors to continue falling. On the other side, TLT (20-year US Treasury ETF) rose 1.46% pre-market, money is hiding in bonds. The core contradiction of this wave is not "whether to raise interest rates," but "who will repay AI's debt." CoreWeave's bond yield has already shot above 15%, with the market pricing it as "not surviving beyond five years." This thing is like the first domino; the market suddenly realizes: doing AI requires borrowing money, borrowing money has become more expensive, and those companies leveraging debt to build computing power may collapse first. Directionally, I tend to continue to see adjustments. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has already fallen for six consecutive days, down nearly 12%. But this time it is not a technical correction; it is money repricing the financing cost of AI infrastructure. After the index closed, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to 5.186%, indicating the market does not really believe in a rate hike in October but is trading in advance on the expectation of "high rates lasting longer." #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 PPI and retail data released, with expectations exceeding forecasts once again delivering a heavy blow to the market! Inflation concerns and rate hike expectations are increasing!
This PPI and retail data basically negate the two optimistic scenarios I mentioned earlier. PPI proves that energy inflation has transmitted from the supply chain to the corporate side, so subsequent PCE won't look good. Although retail data is weaker than the previous value, it far exceeds expectations, indicating that consumer inflation pressure has not eased.
If we look at last night's CPI, we could conclude that "mainly an energy shock, core inflation has not yet spiraled out of control."
However, combined with this PPI and retail data, it means the price pressure caused by energy inflation is growing, while demand remains resilient. Therefore, the risk of energy inflation spreading to broader inflation is clearly increasing, so September's PCE won't look good.
Currently, according to CME, the probability of rate hikes in October and December has not increased yet. We need to wait for the market to digest tonight's data and adjust pricing accordingly! #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 [Quick Commentary] PPI explodes at 6.3%, BTC tests 81,000: The drop is due to interest rates, not chip dumping
Three things to consider together:
1. US September PPI year-on-year at 6.3%, expected only 5.3%, upstream inflation far exceeds expectations; combined with yesterday's core CPI all hot in three categories, an October rate hike is basically confirmed, and the probability for December further rises.
2. Initial jobless claims at 199,000, below expectations—employment resilience gives the Fed confidence to "dare to continue raising". Hot inflation + stable employment = higher interest rates for longer, risk asset valuations continue to be suppressed.
3. A whale dormant for 5 years moved 4,582 BTC above $82,000, profiting 9.3 times. But the coins were split into 5 new addresses, not sent to exchanges—self-custody reorganization, not selling.
In short: Macro pressure is increasing, no selling pressure on-chain, this round of decline is driven by interest rate expectations, not chip dumping. Watch the 80,000 level and the 78,423 annual line trigger below; a break will be another story. $CRCL closed at $79.55 yesterday, around $76.1 pre-market, with the market trading new interest rate expectations.
There is an interesting contradiction here.
Circle's main revenue comes from USDC reserve asset yields.
Higher interest rates help maintain reserve yields but may also suppress risk asset valuations and increase competitive pressure in the stablecoin industry.
So, it’s not simple to assume that a rate cut benefits CRCL, nor that a rate hike necessarily benefits it.
Technically, observe the $75–78.3 range.
If it climbs back above $78.3, a rebound to $82–84 can be simulated; breaking below $74 requires reassessment.
An improvement in a company's operating environment does not necessarily mean its stock will rise.
I prefer to wait for both financial logic and price structure to be validated simultaneously.
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ $BTC Impact on the Fed's October decision: rate hike shifts from "option" to "reality"
After CPI exceeded expectations, the market priced in about a 33%-34% chance of a rate hike in October, with institutions like Huatai still maintaining the view of "pause in October, hike in December."
However, the core PPI month-on-month increase of 0.7% completely breaks this wait-and-see logic.
Producer prices rising at twice the expected rate means CPI faces greater upward transmission pressure in the next 1-2 months. Fed Governor Waller previously stated he "wanted to see today's PPI before making a judgment," and now the data provides a crystal-clear answer: inflation is not under control but is accelerating.
The probability of a rate hike in October will likely jump sharply from 33%-34% to over 50%, and the baseline scenario of the FOMC meeting on October 27-28 "holding steady" is being rapidly overturned.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 High returns in live trading can easily mask the potential risk of large drawdowns
The market generally tends to treat impressive monthly returns as proof that this high-leverage swing trading strategy has sustainable profitability. A leaked trading record shows that the trader rotates operations among three types of assets, with a fast short-term open and close rhythm, achieving a 78.81% paper profit and a 78.21% win rate over the past thirty days.
A variable that is easily overlooked is the maximum drawdown of 48.60% during the same period, including a significant loss in one trade. Under high leverage, short-term profits do not indicate strategy stability; if market rhythm changes, the same approach may amplify losses. A signal that can falsify the sustainability of this strategy is the recurrence of a drawdown of similar magnitude.
Past closing records only represent historical results and do not predict future market trends. Where will you set your current order price and stop-loss point?
$BTC $ZEC $ETH $PUMP, $PONS: Both are token issuance platforms with buyback/burn mechanisms. So, can they support the token price? Is now a bottom-fishing opportunity?
Conclusion first: Both tokens have observational value after their pullbacks, but the current cash flow decline directly weakens the support strength.
1️⃣ $PUMP: Buybacks are real buying pressure, but selling pressure risk persists
The protocol rule is to use 50% of net revenue for buyback and burn; in the past 30 days, a total of $29.48 million was used for buybacks, averaging nearly $980,000 daily, providing some buying support.
However, recent platform revenue dropped 16% month-over-month, weakening buyback intensity. Coupled with monthly token unlocks for the team and investors, selling pressure can amplify at any time.
Short-term focus is on whether $0.004 stabilizes.
2️⃣ $PONS: Revenue sharply shrinks, buyback flywheel lacks momentum
Current price is $0.30, down over 67% from the high.
The mechanism is 80% of protocol fees automatically used for TWAP buyback and burn, with the remaining 20% for operations.
But the problem is: In September, platform protocol revenue was about $140 million; in early October, revenue sharply declined, daily trading volume shrank from a peak of $930 million to $100–190 million, and token issuance quantity plummeted accordingly. Tesla deliveries exceed expectations, so why is the market still focused on profits?
Tesla delivered about 486,500 vehicles in Q3, surpassing market expectations, but still down about 2% year-over-year. This set of numbers is interesting: short-term demand isn’t as bad as imagined, but it’s not a complete turnaround either. What the market is really struggling with now is no longer just how many cars are sold.
If the automotive business stabilizes again, it can certainly support the valuation floor; but Tesla’s high valuation has long been supported by more than just car sales. Robotaxis, autonomous driving, and Optimus are all factored into future expectations. The question is when these stories will turn into sustained revenue rather than just emotional swings after each product launch.
More importantly, good delivery numbers don’t necessarily mean profit margins improve in sync. Price cuts, product mix, and production costs all affect the final results. When the earnings report is released on October 21, investors probably won’t just ask “how many were sold,” but will also inquire about automotive gross margin, cash flow, and the commercialization progress of the autonomous driving business.
So this delivery beat, I don’t think it directly equates to a comprehensive fundamental turnaround. It at least proves demand is still there, but to support a higher valuation, Tesla needs to deliver answers beyond just sales volume. And if profits continue to be under pressure, even impressive delivery data may not convince the market.
Do you think the market is currently buying into a car company’s recovery, or the future of autonomous driving and robotics? #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 $TSLA The True Historical Story of Bitcoin
During the 2008 global financial crisis, Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin whitepaper. In 2009, the genesis block was mined, embedding a headline about bank bailouts from The Times as a statement against the trust crisis in traditional finance.
In 2010, a programmer exchanged 10,000 bitcoins for two pizzas, marking Bitcoin's first real-world product transaction. In its early days, it was merely an experiment among cryptography geeks with almost no value.
In 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024, Bitcoin underwent four halving events, completing four cycles of bull and bear markets. Each cycle followed a very similar pattern: a prolonged bear market bottoming before the halving, retail investors panic-selling; anticipation of the halving heats up, triggering a bull market and widespread wealth narratives; after market euphoria peaks, the bubble bursts, leading to a deep bear market.
At the 2017 bull market peak, the price neared $20,000; in 2021, it reached a high of $69,000; in 2024, the halving combined with the launch of a US spot ETF brought institutional capital officially into the market.
History tells us: halving only reduces the supply of new tokens and does not guarantee a bull market. Each cycle is a redistribution of chips. Most people find it hard to hold through the entire cycle—either selling at the bottom in panic or buying high and getting trapped. Behind the stories of sudden wealth lies a very high risk of loss.
Supporting commentary:
Bitcoin is not a miracle for overnight riches; it is a decade-spanning, repeatedly unfolding human nature contest.Inflation pours cold water again, the rate cut dream needs to be put on hold 🧊
September CPI came out, all lines "off-script":
Overall annual rate 3.7%, 0.1 higher than expected, gasoline bears most of the increase;
Core annual rate 2.6%, expected 2.5%;
Core monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%.
Entertainment, used cars, airfares, medical care, clothing prices rise one after another, this is not a one-time spark, but more like a widespread smoldering fire 🔥
The market immediately changed its tune: bets on rate hikes heat up, even three more hikes before the end of 2027 are on the table. Rate cuts? Don’t line up for that yet 😤
The crypto world naturally feels bad. Originally betting on "oil prices pulling the overall, core still stable," now the core is also exploding, the narrative is directly stuck. If US Treasury yields continue to rise, no-yield assets will continue to be suppressed. 🪙📉
Below 81500-80500 will likely be tested tonight; above 84400-85200, the frying pan turns into an iron plate. High Beta like ETH, $SOL, $ZEC will only fall harder. ETFs are already bleeding, macro factors add more blows, making rebounds very difficult.
Don’t rush to bottom fish, don’t get carried away chasing shorts. Wait 15 to 30 minutes first to see which side the US stock market funds favor at open. The real direction will only be clear after 21:30. Tonight, patience is more valuable than courage ⏳#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 6.3% Drop: Bears Treat Tonight, Bulls Pay the Bill 🔨
The numbers are out: PPI year-on-year 6.3%, month-on-month 1.3%, expected were 5.4% and 0.6%, significantly higher. Retail sales month-on-month 0.8%, consumption still hot, inflation burning on both ends.
Exceeded expectations, solid proof. Rate hike bets are heating up again, risk assets will suffer tonight.
Market: BTC price 80950, just broke 81000; ETH price 2359.55, 2350 right below; SOL price 102.07. ETH volume 289 million, BTC volume 192 million, shorts getting harvested.
Interesting in the long-short ratio: 24-hour shorts across the network at 51.75%, shorts starting to dominate; but BTC and ETH longs by coin still above 55%. Network-wide bearish, individual coins bullish, divergence appears—indicating this drop is macro-driven, not a crypto market crash, mostly sentiment-driven.
I said before "the bulls aren't dead yet," fees are still all positive now, BTC at 0.0049%, ETH at 0.0059%, SOL at 0.0041%. But with the 6.3% drop, "longs laid at 80000" need to be cautious, the lower long zone might really be wiped out tonight.
How to view tonight: don't catch this first cut. After the unexpected drop lands, the first wave is sentiment, the second wave is direction. Wait for the shorts to finish clearing the first wave before watching. Stay on the sidelines, save your bullets for tomorrow.PPI 1.3% blows past expectations, tonight's outlook leans bearish
$BTC and $ETH just received the 20:30 data: US September PPI month-over-month at 1.3%, expected 0.5%, marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022; core PPI at 0.7%, also double the forecast. As mentioned in the midday review "waiting for PPI to set the direction," the direction is clear now—confirmed bearish. Even more concerning is retail sales month-over-month at 0.8%, far exceeding the expected 0.3%, while initial jobless claims at 199,000 met expectations: a combination of a not-weak economy plus soaring inflation is the hardest to price, betting on a rate hike in October will only rise, and risk assets get hit from both sides.
$BTC currently at $80,742, just shy of the $80,000 support line. Judgment: a confirmed bearish trend if it effectively breaks below 80,000 (based on daily close, not intraday wick), targeting around 77,000. Invalidating condition: if $80,000 holds and US Treasury yields fall, indicating the market chooses to digest the bad news, then a return to the $82,000–$84,000 range. Strategy: do not chase the first bearish break candle, wait for close confirmation to follow the trend; a rebound to $81,500–$82,000 is a signal to reduce positions, not add.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
The streaming giant Netflix's traditional subscriber growth has clearly peaked, with user increments entering a bottleneck period, and overall revenue growth continuing to slow down. The original growth logic has basically come to an end.
The market's core focus has completely shifted: the advertising business has become Netflix's only high-growth engine.
The data is very impressive, with advertising revenue expected to surge significantly in 2025. The company has set a clear goal to double advertising revenue to $3 billion by 2026. Relying on AI-optimized ad placements, popular series, and sports live IP support, the scale of paying advertising users continues to expand, which is Netflix's core trump card to stabilize its valuation.
However, there are also critical weaknesses: the advertising business currently accounts for a relatively low proportion of revenue, making it difficult in the short term to offset the sluggish growth of the subscriber business. U.S. tech stocks now heavily depend on realizing new growth points, and if advertising growth falls short of expectations, it can easily trigger a valuation correction.
The sentiment of U.S. growth stocks directly affects risk appetite in the crypto market. Weak growth in benchmark stocks like Netflix will suppress the overall enthusiasm of the tech sector. In the short term, do not blindly go long on risky assets; maintain a range-bound mindset, wait for corporate earnings reports and new business data to materialize, and strictly use stop-losses on all trades without prematurely betting on positive news.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 earnings report is out, the numbers are explosive, but the stock price fell.
Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit rose 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, setting a new quarterly high and exceeding market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, with advanced processes making up 79% overall. Demand for AI chips continues to support performance, this fundamental is very solid.
However, the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies in the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, if gross margin declines, it indicates cost pressure on advanced processes is eating into profits. Also, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is something to watch.
For BTC, this is not direct, but the underlying logic is connected. TSMC is a core supplier of AI computing infrastructure; its revenue and profit validate that AI demand is real, and the narrative of the computing power economy remains intact. BTC's long-term logic as the underlying anchor asset still holds. But the weaker gross margin guidance shows the cost of burning cash is rising, and the valuation of the entire semiconductor chain needs to be reabsorbed. In the short term, BTC is still bearing the pressure of CPI exceeding expectations; the impact of TSMC's earnings report is secondary.
In terms of trading, don't chase tech stocks just because TSMC's profits exceeded expectations. Wait for PPI data, see how US Treasury yields and the dollar move, then decide whether to enter or not. Multiple U.S. economic data released in the evening collectively showed negative signals: initial jobless claims, September retail sales, and both the annual and monthly PPI all exceeded market expectations. However, negative data does not necessarily mean the market will immediately plunge; the short-term impact of this data is limited, making it difficult to trigger a sharp one-sided market move.
Several data points strengthening simultaneously further confirm that the resilience of the U.S. economy remains, which will continue to support the possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining a somewhat hawkish stance. However, the influence of a single round of data is limited, and the market is likely to continue its current bottom-range oscillation pattern.
There is no need to blindly short just because of negative data. The focus should be on observing the capital flow release after the U.S. stock market opens in the evening, seeing how the stock market digests this batch of data, and then judging the subsequent direction of the crypto market. At this stage, continue to maintain a range-bound approach and patiently wait for clear signals from the market.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $BTC $ETH #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 results exceeded expectations: revenue of 1.49 trillion TWD, net profit of 763.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68.7%, with 2nm mass production contributing 8%, and advanced process nodes accounting for 79%. AI demand remains the core support. However, the stock price fell instead of rising, indicating that the positive news has already been priced in. The market's real concern is that gross margin is dragged down by the initial mass production of 2nm and overseas factory construction, as well as the possibility of a significant increase in capital expenditures in 2027. Simply put, the fundamentals are very strong, but short-term sentiment has shifted from "chasing the AI narrative" to "calculating AI returns." The key going forward depends on the Q4 guidance and whether capital expenditures again exceed expectations; if they only meet expectations, valuation pressure will continue to suppress the stock price. The mid-to-long-term AI logic remains intact, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable. Before the PPI data was released, the market was already falling, and once the data came out, it accelerated the plunge.
$BTC slid all the way from above 83000 to 80168, $ETH dropped to 2315, and $SOL was the worst, hitting a low of 100.46, barely holding the triple digits. Now it has slightly caught its breath, with BTC at 81000, ETH at 2363, and SOL at 102.15.
PPI is 6.3%, expected 5.3%, inflation hasn't come down at all. CPI just exploded, now PPI follows suit. Rate cuts are completely off the table, and the threat of rate hikes is back. This isn't just a single data issue; two consecutive inflation indicators are slapping the face of the market, basically shattering the fantasy of a Fed pivot.
Looking at the market, the first wave of the plunge has just passed, but the bulls haven't given up yet. Positions haven't decreased much, and funding rates haven't turned extremely negative, indicating leverage hasn't been fully cleared. Bottom fishing now is just giving away money; even if you want to try, wait until the market volume shrinks and stabilizes.
I'm still holding shorts, not because I'm bearish, but because in this kind of market, both longs and shorts are easily stopped out. Forcing trades is just giving away money. Let the leverage clear itself first; there's no rush now.
Key support levels below: BTC 80000/78000, ETH 2300/2200, SOL 100/95. Don't rush to catch the round numbers; catching them poorly means bleeding hands.
Did you hold up through tonight's market?
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Hayes went on a buying spree today, and ZAMA jumped 9% along with it, but this market is too thin to get too excited about.
On-chain monitoring detected that Arthur Hayes bought about $888,000 worth of coins today through FalconX and Flowdesk, including roughly 3 million ZAMA tokens valued at about $197,000, alongside AERO and PENDLE. ZAMA is working on fully homomorphic encryption, which basically means data can be encrypted yet still computed on. This fits perfectly with the AI privacy computing narrative. When a celebrity buys in, the funds tend to ignite the story, and OKEx spot price surged up to +9.4% today, reaching around 0.074.
Let's cool down a bit: ZAMA’s share in this basket is the smallest, less than 20%, with the real heavy hitter being AERO; plus, the 24-hour spot trading volume is only around $1.55 million, and the price is already close to the intraday high of 0.076. With such a thin market, a celebrity wallet can be both a tailwind and a scythe—pumping smoothly but dumping without warning.
Watch for one signal: whether Hayes’ wallet adds more positions and if the volume can hold above 0.076; relying on a single $197,000 buy to hold the price is risky, and a pullback after a spike is highly probable once the hype fades. DYOR, this is not investment advice.
#ZAMA #FHE #AI#TSMCQ3RecordProfit New York Fed President Williams speaks with a dovish tone
Williams' role is quite special; he has a relatively independent position.
He is the only member of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) who is not a member of the Fed's Board of Governors.
As a regional bank president, he is the only permanent member with voting rights in Fed decisions.
Williams believes there may be one more rate hike this year, and no further increases will be needed next year.$ETH data has been released, and it's still all bearish!
To put it simply, PPI usually leads CPI, but this time it came after CPI.
Both the monthly and yearly rates exceeded expectations by a large margin. CPI was bearish ahead, and PPI is bearish afterward, which again raises expectations for future price increases!
My understanding is: PPI is the Producer Price Index. When PPI rises, production costs increase and must be passed on to consumers. However, today's retail sales monthly rate did not signal a cooling in consumption; the reported value even reached 0.8%, meaning consumer willingness and ability remain strong despite high prices.
The conclusion is: both PPI production costs and consumer spending power are pushing inflation higher because the retail sales monthly rate measures total consumption amount (excluding dining out, and other service industries are not included).
Initial jobless claims also did not indicate weakening employment, adding another layer of hawkish evidence!
Today's three data points—PPI, retail sales monthly rate, and initial jobless claims—all point to bearish outcomes.
For reference only, not investment advice. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 The liquidation heatmap has just been updated, and the liquidation points for the four coins have tightened almost simultaneously, which is more alarming than any single indicator. $BTC current price is $81,655.8, with the largest short pain point above at $83,259.04, only +1.96% away; the largest long pain point below is at $81,200.95, just -0.56% away. $ETH current price is $2,417.3, with the upper point at $2,463.62 (+1.92%) and the lower at $2,396.69 (-0.85%). $SOL current price is $104.39, with the upper at $105.664 (+1.22%) and the lower at $103.364 (-0.98%). $ZEC current price is $1,140.51, with the upper at $1,197.072 (+4.96%) and the lower at $1,122.714 (-1.56%). What is truly noteworthy is not these numbers themselves, but the structure: the lower liquidation zones of all four coins are concentrated within less than 1.6% from the current price, while the upper pain points are dispersed between 1.2% and 5%. This asymmetry indicates that leveraged longs are accumulating in the same narrow zone, and once triggered, liquidations will cascade like dominoes. $ZEC has the thinnest lower buffer zone; the -1.56% gap means it has the lowest tolerance for external volatility, while the upper short pain point at +4.96% is$BTC $ETH PPI data exploded, will the bulls completely become fuel when the US stock market opens tonight??
This time, the US PPI data directly exceeded expectations, with the annual rate soaring from the previous 5.4% and expected 5.3% to 6.3%; the monthly rate also rose from the previous 0.4% and expected 0.5% to 1.3%. Inflation pressure on the production side has clearly increased.
More importantly, retail data performed better than expected, indicating that US consumption still has resilience and the economy shows no obvious signs of recession for now. Under these circumstances, the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts may be further limited.
Previously, market bets on rate hikes had already heated up, and after the PPI exploded again, related expectations may continue to be revised upward. However, rate hikes are not set in stone; future moves will depend on inflation trends, employment data, and the Federal Reserve's policy stance.
If the risk in the Strait of Hormuz continues and oil prices keep rising, future inflation pressure may further increase. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 The whole market is looking for a bottom, but institutions are not panicking at all. I reviewed yesterday's ETF data and found something quite unusual.
First, look at $BTC with a net outflow of 31.44 million yesterday. BlackRock sold 13.34 million, Fidelity sold 18.36 million. They just bought over 20 million the day before, and sold it all the next day. This shows institutions are just testing BTC, pulling back immediately once CPI spikes.
Next, $ETH had a net outflow of only 51,900. Grayscale sold a little, BlackRock sold a little, basically no movement. The price has dropped to 2315, yet institutions neither buy nor sell, just watching.
$SOL is even more interesting: net outflow of 12,200, only Bitwise is selling. This is the 8th consecutive day of outflows, but compared to tens of millions in previous days, today's volume is almost negligible. The main force driving the dump is no longer ETFs, but longs in the contracts stepping on each other.
My conclusion: institutions are not panicking, they are waiting. The selling pressure on ETH and SOL is actually decreasing. This drop is mainly long liquidation by longs against longs. The SOL long-short ratio is still 2.68, longs haven't fully exited, so the chain reaction isn't over. Bottom fishing in this market is a gamble; wait until liquidation data stabilizes and the market fully steadies before considering action.
Key levels to note: BTC 80,000 / 78,000, ETH 2,300 / 2,200, SOL 100 / 95. Pure ETF flows and market observations do not constitute any trading advice. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
PPI exploded: +1.3%, expected only +0.6%
BTC at $80,767, $80,000 is at risk tonight.
US September PPI month-on-month +1.3%, more than double the expected +0.6%, $BTC now has $80,000 at risk. Core +0.5% also higher than expected +0.3%, year-on-year jumped to 6.3%, after CPI 3.7% another blow, December rate cut is basically off the table.
The market hasn't crashed yet, BTC is still around $80,767, but this is the "bullet hasn't flown yet" stage. Most likely $80,000 won't hold tonight, if broken look for $77,500. Any rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions, don't try to bottom fish.
Invalidation level: BTC recovers $82,000 and holds above itThis time, the US CPI data exceeded market expectations, confirming inflation stickiness. The market has lowered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. US Treasury real yields and the US dollar index are rising, global financial conditions are marginally tightening, and risk appetite in the crypto market is simultaneously declining. The market structure shows differentiation, with Bitcoin demonstrating relative resilience, while Ethereum and altcoins experience larger adjustments; leverage among long positions in the futures market is concentrated and stops are triggered, showing clear short-term capital outflows.
Regarding the subsequent market trend, the short-term market is likely to maintain a weak oscillation pattern. The data continues to decline, and market rebounds are more of a phase correction; the core indicators to watch going forward are the core PCE data and policy statements from Federal Reserve officials. Changes in liquidity expectations remain the key variable driving the mid-term direction of the crypto space.The US September PPI annual rate recorded 6.3%, the highest since May 2026, exceeding market expectations.
As soon as the data came out, inflation exploded again. Is the Federal Reserve's plan to cut interest rates completely shattered?
For the week of October 10, initial jobless claims were 199,000, below the expected 200,000, with the previous value revised to 198,000. The labor market remains tight. The September PPI annual rate soared to 6.3%, far exceeding the expected 5.3%, with the previous value revised upward to 5.6%. Inflationary pressure on the production side has directly exploded.
Here is a counterintuitive perspective: initial jobless claims seem healthy, but the PPI surge indicates that cost pressures are intensely squeezing the end consumer.
Currently, companies would rather squeeze profit margins than lay off employees lightly, creating a stagflation shadow where employment appears stable but corporate profits are under pressure.
PPI is usually a leading indicator of CPI.
With production costs out of control, consumer inflation in the coming months will not decrease at all. The market's previously bet high-frequency rate cut logic has been shattered, and the Federal Reserve is now trapped in an extremely passive and awkward situation.
It is estimated that in the short term, risk assets such as US stocks and the crypto market will face severe shocks from liquidity repricing. The hawkish camp within the Federal Reserve will quickly rise, and it is even possible that discussions about pausing rate cuts will be revisited.
It is recommended to avoid high leverage in the short term, focus more on assets with stable cash flow, and prepare for a second test of liquidity tightening.
DYOR
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
However, the stock price reaction was moderate, mainly because expectations were already very high. The ramp-up of 2nm will suppress profit margins, coupled with huge capital expenditures. Management also spoke cautiously about next year, so don't expect a big surge in the short term. US September PPI exploded: final demand month-on-month +1.3% (expected about +0.6%), year-on-year +6.3% (expected about +5.4%), year-on-year excluding food, energy, trade, and services +5.0%. This is one of the strongest year-on-year increases since the end of 2022, another round of upstream inflation pressure following the hotter-than-expected CPI. Short-term risk assets should first watch for volatility; avoid chasing highs or panic selling. BTC spot around 80930 USDT, ETH around 2358 (Beijing 20:37, OKX). This does not constitute investment advice.Three consecutive bearish candles, but the reasons for the decline are not the same.
On the same day of decline, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL each have their own sources of selling pressure.
For $BTC, it's a sentiment retreat:
No large holders collectively withdrawing on-chain, and there is still support near the 400-day moving average.
For $ETH, it's about capital outflow:
ETF net outflows continue, wallet balances are migrating out, indicating holders are actively reducing positions.
For $SOL, the pressure is on the contract side:
Perpetual shorts are increasing, leverage is pushing the price down, while spot outflows are relatively limited.
In other words, the one that fell sharply did not see much chip turnover.
The one that fell steadily is where money is truly flowing out.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#$BTC $ETH US September PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month, expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%; core PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month, expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%. Both readings significantly exceeded market expectations and accelerated noticeably compared to August. Historically, the month-on-month PPI has been positive and rising for two consecutive months, with 1.1% in May, turning negative to -0.3% in June, returning to 0% in July, rising to 0.4% in August, and September's 1.3% being the highest in this series. The core PPI's 0.7% is also the highest growth rate in recent months, indicating that price pressures excluding food and energy are also expanding, rather than a single component driving the overall reading. The simultaneous acceleration of producer prices means that the cost increases faced by companies are spreading. Whether this will be passed on to consumer prices will be a key observation point for the market to assess the inflation trajectory. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验Funding rates first "leak" 📊
At 20:30 tonight, before the CPI release, the funding rates have already submitted their answers. $BTC on two major platforms is almost hugging the zero line: 0.0039%, 0.0035%, both longs and shorts are restrained. 82,500 has been repeatedly tested and still holds, 84,000 is also suppressed, the price seems to be holding its breath waiting for the data. ⏳
$ETH is clearly split: Platform B's rate has flipped negative to -0.0043%, shorts start paying; Platform A's cumulative rate remains +0.0082%. Some are betting on a catch-up rally, others continue to be bearish. Spot ETFs continue to bleed, institutional interest is weaker than BTC, making ETH the most directionless and most afraid of a CPI surprise. ⚖️
$SOL is more straightforward: cumulative 0.0163%, real-time only 0.0033%, the tide is receding quickly. Price has returned near 107, bulls no longer add positions, courage is being drained. 📉
Overall: BTC is neutral waiting for change, ETH longs and shorts are torn, SOL bulls are retreating. The macro environment is also tough: ETFs had a net outflow of 679 million last week, ETH outflow of 542 million; the US dollar index is at an 18-month high, 10-year US Treasury yield exceeds 5.2%. Weak funding rates + capital outflows + macro tension, under triple pressure, the market is not without direction, but no one dares to bet first. 🚨#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Solana has entered Shanghai and is vigorously expanding its Asia-Pacific ecosystem, mainly to compete for ETH developers, application projects, and market share.
SOL and ETH have fundamental differences in technical routes, philosophy, and market positioning, currently showing more of a long-term coexistence and intense competition dynamic.【Project Research】ASTER: A Perpetual DEX with 99% Fees Used for Buybacks, Three Hidden Risks Under the Halo
ASTER was formed by the merger of Astherus and APX, launching its own public chain Aster Chain (privacy + zero Gas) in March 2026, backed by YZi Labs. Rapid growth: 24-hour perpetual trading volume is about $1.65 billion, accounting for approximately 9.4% of the entire industry, TVL is $776 million, and open interest is $1.35 billion.
The token model is the biggest selling point: starting June, 99% of protocol revenue is used for buyback and burn, and emissions are only released through staking, resulting in selling pressure better than most DEXs. But three risks must be laid out:
1. The top 10 addresses control about 93% of the supply, indicating highly concentrated holdings;
2. Only 34% is circulating, FDV is 3 times the market cap, and the team’s lock-up expires in September 2027;
3. Trading volume includes task incentive inflation, and up to 1001x leverage is a meat grinder for retail investors.
The mechanism innovation is real, but so are the risks of concentrated holdings and leverage. Before participating, closely monitor the real data of the Aster Chain ecosystem, and don’t be persuaded by the buyback narrative alone.CPI cold shot! BTC holds 80,000, ETH weakens first? 😶🌫️📉
Core CPI at 2.6%, 0.1 higher than expected, all eyes on it tonight. ⚠️
10 minutes after data release: 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 5.19% to 5.27%, BTC down 1.8%, gold down 1.0%, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Earlier, gold and crypto took the hit first, now stock index futures are also down, anxiety has escalated from "high interest rates maintained" to "possibly more hikes needed." 📉🪙
Before the data, BTC was hovering around 81,700, ETH was even weaker near 2,400. With the boot dropped, the trend is bearish. BTC is just one step away from 80,000; without easing rates, it’s hard for BTC to strengthen independently. Watch 81,000 below first. ETH’s weak structure remains unchanged, altcoins continue to lose liquidity. 🧊
Tonight, I’m holding my position. Data doesn’t lie; what lies is your illusion about the data.Oh no, another round of waterfall
September PPI exceeded expectations along with retail exceeding expectations
Supply chain costs rising + strong consumer demand
Indicates that inflation driven by rising energy prices is permeating other sectorsUS September Producer Prices Rose Faster: The PPI released at 20:30 on October 15 showed a month-on-month increase of 1.3%, higher than the revised 0.5% in August; year-on-year up 6.3%. PPI measures the prices producers receive for selling goods and services, not the consumer shopping bill.
Energy is the main driver: commodity prices rose 2.6% month-on-month, with over 80% of the increase coming from energy. But excluding food, energy, and trade services, the index still rose 0.5%, faster than August's 0.3%, indicating pressure is not only from oil prices.
Directly affected are companies purchasing these goods and services. After cost increases, companies may compress profits or try to raise prices; how much can be passed on depends on demand and competition, so the PPI increase cannot be directly applied to consumer prices.
For BTC, transmission goes through interest rate expectations: if the market expects high rates to persist longer and the dollar to strengthen, risk asset buying may be pressured. Next, watch the actual reactions of US Treasury yields, the dollar, and BTC, rather than treating one data point as a definite signal for price moves.
Source and chart: US Bureau of Labor Statistics September PPI, reviewed on 10/15; month-on-month is seasonally adjusted, year-on-year is not. The BTC/USDT spot below is for macro market observation only.
https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/trade-spot/btc-usdtSeptember CPI recorded 3.7% and ETF net outflow of $585 million, OKX BTC rate stuck at 0.0009% in the first two hours before US stock market opens
September inflation exceeded expectations, rising to 3.7%. BTC spot on OKX traded at $80,950.7 turnover. Those with orders before US market opens should first watch the external market. Last night, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a sudden outflow of $585.9 million. I checked QCP's research report this afternoon; the daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 1, crude oil and energy prices rose 5.2% in a month, pushing inflation data higher again. External US bonds and corporate spreads widened. With two hours left before the US stock market opens at 21:30, on-exchange buying has clearly contracted.
I switched to OKX futures to check the market. BTC spot dropped 2.93% in one day, consolidating around $80,950.7. Total perpetual contract open interest across the platform stands at $7.694 billion, BTC perpetuals account for $3.113 billion, altcoin contracts $2.874 billion, with altcoin to BTC open interest ratio at 0.923. BTC funding rate is stuck at 0.0009%, annualized less than 1%, indicating neither longs nor shorts dared to increase leverage before the market opens. The fear and greed index is at 53, neutral. BTC market dominance rose to 60.01%, funds are still lying in spot.
External inflation exceeding expectations combined with ETF capital outflows makes betting on a one-sided rebound before market open not worthwhile. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC Q3 Earnings Analysis: Record High Performance, AI Demand Drives Growth, but Stock Price Pulls Back
TSMC (TSM) released its Q3 2026 earnings report, delivering results that significantly exceeded market expectations. Both quarterly revenue and net profit hit record highs for the quarter. AI chip demand was the core driver of this growth. However, following the earnings release, TSM and xTSM shares in the US market dropped more than 5% intraday, showing a typical "good news priced in" reaction.
Summary
In the short term, AI computing power demand remains strong, and TSMC's advanced capacity is in short supply, demonstrating strong fundamental resilience. The medium-term challenge lies in: the 2nm ramp-up causing gross margin decline and sustained high capital expenditures, combined with valuations already reflecting optimistic expectations. Going forward, two key points to watch are: first, whether the Q4 revenue guidance can continue to exceed expectations; second, whether capital expenditures will be further increased. These two factors will determine TSMC's future stock price trend.