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RWA is being hyped a lot right now, with $ETH on-chain breaking $17.3 billion and Solana also surpassing $3 billion. But I'll pour cold water on that: 90% of tokenized assets on Solana haven't actually entered DeFi to work; they're just sitting idle in the issuer's reserves. They're on-chain but locked in vaults—this isn't a revolution, it's a PPT scheme. Do you really believe RWA can be implemented, or do you think it's just another new shell to fleece retail investors? $ETH
The SEC has postponed the tokenization exemption again. The White House fears disrupting Congress, and Wall Street's SIFMA also opposes backdoor approaches. I'm on the side of regulation—wasn't the 2017 ICO lesson painful enough? It's better to take it slow with disclosures and proper procedures than to rush in blindly. Would you call this protection or a moat? $ETH Last night, SanDisk's common stock intraday high reached 1827, closing at 1786.85, up 8.88%.
The token also followed with a surge.
SNDK is currently the largest stock-linked perpetual contract product in the crypto market, with open interest at $1.73 billion and 24-hour trading volume at $2.51 billion, a 248% surge compared to the previous day.
Its trading volume ranks fourth among all perpetual assets, only behind BTC, ETH, and SOL.
The short logic is also very clear. SanDisk's Q2 revenue was 8.965 billion, but two-thirds of the growth came from price increases rather than shipment volume growth.
Jefferies cut the target price from 3000 to 1750, believing the cycle has peaked. $SNDK BTC fell below the 30-day average trading price by 1.22%, while ETH almost returned to the cost line: who will complete the recovery first?
The key to this round of divergence is not who fell more, but who is farther from the average cost. Based on the last 30 full daily candles, $BTC's approximate VWAP is about $64,378, closing at about $63,589, down about 1.22%; ETH's approximate VWAP is about $1,885.47, closing at about $1,882.73, down only about 0.15%. On the surface, BTC only fell by one more percentage point, but the implication is different: the overall buying funds for BTC in the past 30 days are already in a slight floating loss, and a rebound near 64,378 is more likely to trigger unlocking and selling pressure; ETH is more like oscillating close to the cost line, with chips not yet forming obvious lock-in losses, mostly following the sentiment decline. Therefore, if ETH first recovers and stabilizes above 1,885.47, short-term selling pressure may be more easily absorbed, and the recovery pace may have a chance to lead; BTC must break through 64,378 again for the recent holders' status to truly improve. But $ETH's "no lock-in loss" is also a double-edged sword, as its support does not rely on cost consensus but more on volume and risk appetite. Once it effectively breaks down, the VWAP will turn into resistance. Next, only one anchor matters: whoever first stands back above their respective 30-day approximate VWAP with volume is more likely to complete the recovery first; the above is an approximate estimate, for observation only, not for trading reference. $ASP
$ASP is joining the market rotation with an +8.66% move. The key story now is whether buyers can turn the $0.01 region into solid support.
EP: $0.0101–$0.0105
TP: $0.0112 / $0.0120 / $0.0130
SL: $0.00965[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh straightforwardly says that Bitcoin's “sleeping supply” has hit a new high again, but this needs to be looked at from two sides: on one hand, it’s truly scarce; on the other, the market might actually be cooling down.
The data is solid. BTC that hasn’t moved for over 10 years has reached 3.56 million coins, accounting for 17.7% of the total circulating supply. In the past 30 days, another 14,000 BTC have joined the “long-term dormant” ranks, meaning these coins have naturally exited the circulation pool, so supply is indeed shrinking.
But that’s not the whole picture. CryptoQuant has long warned that the long-term holder supply breaking the historical record of 15.8 million coins might not be due to overwhelming confidence, but rather a “buyer drought.” The increase in long-term holder supply isn’t because everyone is rushing to hoard coins, but because new buyers are entering the market too slowly, causing old coins to passively “age into” long-term holdings.
This needs to be viewed separately. The 3.56 million “lost” coins are truly gone, providing strong support for the price. But the high proportion of long-term holders also means market activity is declining, liquidity is thinning, and small fluctuations can cause the price to swing wildly. Scarcity tells a long-term story, but the short-term market cooling is also a fact. Good trades are made by waiting; look far ahead on direction, but don’t rush to act! $BTC $ETH $BICO #BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 $BTC Trump claims that the US economy is thriving like never before, yet serious delays in credit card payments have reached their highest rate since the post-2008 financial crisis. This shows that Americans are struggling to pay their bills, which aligns with bad times, not good ones.$CAP My view is that the funding rate is positive, so in the short term it will sweep upward again, with chip distribution between 0.71-0.75, then let go and ignore it.Under geopolitical risks and oil price disturbances, $BTC initially behaves like a risk asset, while $ETH resembles a high-beta tech stock.
Around August 18, the market continues to focus on the Middle East situation and oil prices. As geopolitical risks escalate and crude oil prices fluctuate, inflation expectations will be brought back into discussion. This environment is most troublesome for the crypto market because it simultaneously affects Federal Reserve policy, risk appetite, and dollar liquidity. Both $BTC and $ETH will be impacted, but in different ways.
$BTC has long been called digital gold, but in actual trading, when geopolitical risks first emerge, it doesn’t necessarily rise immediately. The reason is simple: in the first phase of a crisis, the market demands cash, dollars, short-term debt, and traditional gold. BTC’s high volatility, leverage, and liquidity might actually cause it to be sold first. This doesn’t mean it lacks hedging properties; rather, its hedging role tends to manifest in the second phase. When the crisis affects fiscal and monetary policy, deficits, and the credit system, BTC is more likely to be seen as a long-term hedge.
$ETH faces greater challenges in this environment. Although ETH has long-term ecological value, in short-term trading it behaves more like a high-beta growth asset. Rising oil prices increase inflationary pressure, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates, and real interest rates remain high, which suppresses all future cash flows and high-volatility assets. ETH offers staking yields, but if U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the market becomes more selective: can 2% to 3% on-chain yields offset ETH’s own volatility?
Therefore, under geopolitical risk, the divergence between BTC and ETH may become more pronounced. BTC may also be sold in the short term, but if the market starts pricing in fiscal expansion, monetary easing, and credit instability, it can more quickly return to the digital gold narrative. ETH, on the other hand, needs risk appetite to recover, on-chain activity to rebound, and improvements in stablecoin and DeFi metrics to strengthen. BTC relies on macro distrust, while ETH depends on on-chain activity and yield attractiveness.
This also explains why BTC currently finds relative support around $64,000, while ETH near $1,900 requires more confirmation. BTC’s underlying narrative is simpler: scarcity, non-sovereign, ETFs, institutional reserves. ETH’s narrative is richer, but that means it faces scrutiny from more factors: regulation, staking, DeFi, L2, fees, competing chains, and application growth.
Geopolitical risk is not simply bullish for crypto. It first causes the market to reduce risk, then forces the market to rethink the monetary system. The first step is uncomfortable for both BTC and ETH; the second step makes BTC easier to justify, while ETH needs liquidity to truly return.
So when writing about this today, don’t say "war benefits BTC and ETH." More accurately: when risk first arrives, BTC is treated as a risk asset; after policy bills come out, BTC acts like insurance. ETH is more like an on-chain tech stock—it needs not just the crisis, but the easing and application recovery that follow the crisis. Just checked my margin account again, and the swing in P&L is honestly wild. A few days ago, the position was showing nearly 300,000 RMB in profit. Today, the same account is down by more than 200,000 RMB. That kind of volatility is a serious reminder of how quickly sentiment can flip in crypto. At this stage, I’m leaning toward staying focused on the major assets rather than chasing smaller altcoins. If the market is preparing for another recovery, $BTC and $ETH are the names I’d rather watch 🚨 Could the next BTC catalyst come from the Middle East—not the Fed?
Washington is reportedly weighing a post-war reduction of US forces in the Gulf, with some damaged bases potentially not being rebuilt in their previous form.
If this becomes reality, the first market reaction could be bullish:
📉 Lower geopolitical risk → pressure on oil
🔥 Lower oil prices → less inflation pressure
📈 And that could give BTC and ETH another boost.
#DailyOrbit Gold has again surpassed the 4400 USD mark, and I remain optimistic. On August 17, spot gold rose about 1% to 4420 USD, after previously hitting a peak of 4434 USD, and has now returned above this important threshold.
Interestingly, U.S. bond yields are at their highest level in 19 years, which usually puts significant pressure on precious metals, yet gold remains resilient. The reason stems from tensions with ChinaThe Middle East ceasefire wasn’t extended, putting risk assets under renewed pressure. But the interesting part isn’t the headline—it’s how differently $BTC and $ETH are reacting. $BTC is down only around 0.2%, still holding near $64K. With a market cap around $1.28T and roughly 56% dominance, there’s no sign of panic selling. That resilience suggests BTC is increasingly being treated more like a defensive digital asset than a pure risk trade. $ETH , meanwhile, is showing more sensitivity. AroWeak consumption + energy rebound, stagflation concerns are rising, US economic risks drag down risk assets
The current macro environment is still relatively unfavorable for risk assets overall, as I mentioned in this week's macro framework with basically consistent expectations
Last week's unexpectedly weak consumption data itself triggered concerns about an economic slowdown, and crude oil breaking and holding above $90 at this time has increased inflation expectations. The combination of the two leads to light stagflation expectations, which is the current macro pain point
To note, on the consumption side, pay attention to the earnings reports of several major US consumer giants: Home Depot on Tuesday this week, Target and Lowe's on Wednesday, Walmart on Thursday. Currently, Home Depot's earnings report shows that the US consumer economy is downgrading; although not crashing, the risks are gradually expanding
Next, this week's real estate data + initial jobless claims + PMI + corporate consumption data, if combined with subsequent earnings reports from Target, Lowe's, and Walmart also showing consumption downgrade, then the risk expectation of US economic weakening or even crashing greatly increases. If energy prices remain above 90 this week, light stagflation expectations will inevitably become the main market focus
One more point to note here: theoretically, economic weakening would suppress the September rate hike signal, but if it turns from weakening to crashing, with cliff-like consumption economic data accompanied by high oil prices, then even if the rate hike signal is weakened, it is still unfavorable for risk markets especially
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ The BTC/ETH valuation system lacks a unified market consensus.
The valuation logic for $BTC is relatively simple, centered around scarcity, US dollar liquidity, and institutional allocation ratios, with limited divergence.
In contrast, for $ETH, the internal market valuation models vary wildly.
Using on-chain revenue for valuation results in very low price expectations;
using network scale and future ecosystem potential for valuation leads to very optimistic target prices.
Institutions have not reached a consensus on how much ETH should be worth.
Without a unified valuation benchmark, a phenomenon emerges:
With the same data, some institutions aggressively buy while others choose to sell outright.
This is the fundamental reason behind ETH's volatile oscillations and intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Before consensus is formed, it’s easy to see a price surge followed by massive divergent selling pressure In the past six months, the most significant change in BTC is not its price, but the way the market discusses it. Fewer and fewer people ask "Will it go to zero?" and more and more people discuss "How much should it be allocated?" This shift in discourse is actually more important than any technical indicator because it means that BTC's most significant change is not its price, but the way the market talks about it. Fewer people ask "Will it go to zero?" and more people discuss "How much should it be allocated?" This shift in discourse is actually more important than any technical indicator because it means BTC is being redefined from a "controversial new species" to an "alternative asset option."
But this process will not complete automatically. The middle stage of narrative switching is often the most chaotic: old players feel it has risen enough, new players feel it is not stable enough, traditional finance thinks it is too young, and crypto natives think it is too conservative. Everyone is dissatisfied, so the price will stay sideways, waiting for enough evidence to outweigh enough doubts.
At such times, what truly determines the direction is not which side of the bull-bear argument is more compelling, but which side time stands on. If $BTC's volatility continues to trend downward, custody infrastructure continues to improve, accounting rules continue to clarify, and ETFs continue to expand coverage, then its "asset option" attribute will become stronger and stronger. These advances are not headline news, but combined, they are more powerful than any single price rally. The market will ultimately reward those who see the structural changes clearly during the chaotic narrative period.Of course! For the holding costs of high-net-worth BTC users, we mainly look at these groups:
1. Holding 100-1k: $66,700;
2. Holding 1k-10k: $61,200;
3. Holding 10k-100k: $53,500;
Among them, we mainly focus on the mid-sized holding group, which is closer to real individual investors. The ultra-large holders may also include exchanges, third-party custodians, hedge funds, etc.;
Currently, BTC is right between the cost bands, near the cost level of investors holding less than 10k coins, and it has never fallen below the lower limit of the cost band.
In terms of relative position, this is similar to the period from June to October 2022.
In the past two cycles, the bear market bottom appeared after breaking below the whale cost band. Assuming this round also breaks below $53,000, it would be a clear signal.
But that doesn't mean it will definitely happen this round. We should not predict; having "whether it happens or not" included in our plan is the right approach.🚨 No matter how I interpret Bitcoin's 4-year cycle: we are getting closer and closer to a critical stage!
Most people are currently focused on how many days remain until Bitcoin's final bear market bottom after hitting its all-time high.
This chart takes a different approach.
It counts time from the halving — from this perspective, we are also slowly entering the hot phase.
⚪ In the 2012 cycle, the final bottom had already formed before our current point in time.
⚪ In the 2016 cycle, we are about to reach the point when the final bottom formed.
⚪ The 2020 cycle lasted a bit longer, but this historical bottom is also getting closer on the timeline now.
If we instead examine the cycle from each respective all-time high, the historical time window shows that the possible final bottom would roughly fall around October 5, October 19, and the weeks around November 23.
Two different perspectives. Both currently tell a similar story:
👉 We are no longer in the middle of the bear market timeline but are getting closer to the area where the historical final bottom formed.
This does not mean the bottom has already appeared.
On the contrary... the last crash and lower prices are still entirely possible.
But the 4-year cycle quite clearly indicates:
The final stage is underway.⏳First, let's clarify the timing. $SNDK closed up over 8%, corresponding to August 17 Eastern Time. On that day, SanDisk rose 8.88%, closing at $1786.85. Adding the 13.67% gain on Investor Day and the subsequent 7.40% on the next trading day, the cumulative increase over three trading days was about 32.9%. This no longer looks like an ordinary earnings rebound; it seems more like the market is re-discussing a question. Is SanDisk still purely a cyclical company? What truly stimulated the funds is the long-term NBM business agreements it is advancing. The company currently has arrangements with 8 data center and edge computing customers, involving about 10 agreements, expected to cover approximately 50% of bit shipments in FY2027 and about two-thirds in FY2028, with a weighted average contract term exceeding 4 years. According to the company's Investor Day materials, calculated at the price floor, these agreements correspond to a minimum contract revenue of about $93.9 billion, with an additional approximately $16.5 billion in cash deposits and financial instruments as performance guarantees. Simply put, the most painful part of doing NAND before was that when prices were good, everyone frantically expanded production, and when prices dropped, inventory could directly crush profits. Now, what SanDisk wants to do is to lock in customers and shipments in advance, then add upper and lower limits to the floating prices. It is trying to transform a "weather-dependent" cyclical business into a contract business that can foresee orders for the next few years in advance. But here, a cold shower is necessary. The 50% and two-thirds refer to bit shipment volume, not revenue share; the $93.9 billion is based on conWith OKB dropping to $98, what the market reflects is not the project's fundamentals but the attitude of the capital. On the surface, it looks like a simple rebound of an overly sold stock, but what the actual price curve tells us is that the nature of the capital surrounding OKB has already changed. OKB was an asset tied to real use demand within the exchange ecosystem, such as fee discounts, launchpad qualifications, and staking rewards. However, the $98 price is significantly below the average cost of positions that flowed in during the past uptrend. In other words, the current price phase is driven not by real use demand but by leverage, short covering, and stop-loss liquidity. This event has two implications for the market structure. - The risk premium for all exchange tokens is being re-evaluated. This is not just an issue for OKB; similar logic applies to tokens with similar structures like BNB, GT, and MX. - It signals that in the altcoin sector, capital is reacting more sensitively to "liquidity recovery speed" than to "internal ecosystem utility." $SPCX is moving way too fast for me. 👀 Just 11 minutes after the open, it was already trading around $143 vs. $140 premarket. I’ve been burned by this name before, so I’m not chasing the move. The levels I’m watching: • $140 — first key support • $135 — IPO price • $120 — deeper downside zone Then there’s the supply overhang. Around 319M shares are scheduled to unlock on Aug. 20, with even larger tranches coming later. The real question isn’t whether those shares can be sold — it’s whether holThe SEC meeting cancellation and the delay of the Clarity Act are disturbances for $BTC and valuation ceiling issues for $ETH.
US crypto regulation has recently slowed down again. The SEC originally planned to discuss crypto rules, but the meeting was canceled; the Clarity Act also did not advance before Congress adjourned. Naturally, the market is disappointed, with BTC retreating from highs and ETH continuing to grind at a critical level. Regulatory clarity is an important variable for the entire crypto market, but the impact levels differ for BTC and ETH.
For $BTC, regulatory delays mainly affect entry points and sentiment. BTC itself does not need to prove to regulators that it is not a security; it has no fundraising entity, no project team promising returns, and no governance token issuance logic. Regulatory uncertainty makes ETF funds cautious and slows down bank and wealth management entry, but BTC’s existence is unaffected. Regulation influences whether it is "easier to buy," not "whether it can still exist."
For $ETH, the issue is more complex. ETH as an asset is already widely traded, but its ecosystem has many regulatory sensitive points: Is staking a yield product? How to classify DeFi protocols? How to regulate L2 and token issuance? How to ensure compliance for RWA? How are stablecoins supervised within the Ethereum system? These questions affect ETH’s valuation ceiling because ETH’s value comes not only from holding it but also from the financial activities running on top.
This is why regulatory delays act more like a "cap suppression" for ETH. Without clear rules, institutions can buy some ETH exposure but find it difficult to enter DeFi, staking yields, on-chain structured products, and RWA at scale. For ETH to truly open space around $1900, it requires not only macro easing but also regulatory clarity to provide a clearer compliance path for on-chain finance.
BTC’s simplicity is an advantage amid regulatory uncertainty. When the market doesn’t know how to define complex tokens, it reverts to BTC; when institutions are unsure about DeFi, they buy BTC ETFs first; when compliance departments don’t want to explain a bunch of on-chain yield mechanisms, it’s easier to approve BTC allocations. ETH has greater long-term potential but faces more short-term questions.
So it’s not about which is better between BTC and ETH, but which is easier for capital to understand under regulation. BTC is like the simplest digital hard asset, ETH is like a complex financial operating system. The slower the rules, the more resilient simple assets are; the clearer the rules, the easier it is for complex systems to unlock valuation.
The SEC meeting cancellation and Clarity Act delay are short-term negatives. But the real differentiation is: BTC is just waiting for wider entry, while ETH is waiting for the entire on-chain finance to be allowed deeper mainstream market access. The former can survive a bit slower; the latter must wait for rules to level up. The Japanese stock market just evaporated 19 trillion Yen in just 24 hours. This is not a normal correction. It is the breakdown of one of the largest leverage structures in the history of global finance. As the brothers just shared, warning signs had been present before, and this is very likely just the prelude. The collapse of the Japanese stock market is not because their companies suddenly started performing poorly. This crash is the consequence of the Yen appreciating and the interest r#财报观察员：Xiaomi's Q2 Earnings Released, Is the Auto Segment Saving the Day or Are Phones Holding It Back?
Tonight Xiaomi $XIAOMI released its earnings report, and I watched it for a while. Honestly, looking at tech stock earnings now is way more interesting than watching crypto K-line charts.
Phone shipments dropped 19%, but ASP rose to 1310, a historic high. Volume down but price up shows that the move toward high-end products is real, not just empty talk. On the auto side, SU7 deliveries exceeded 100,000 units, with a 20% gross margin, and losses shrank from 3.1 billion to 2 billion, showing scale effects. AIoT is even stronger; 618 boosted IoT revenue by 28% quarter-over-quarter, with major appliances and smart home recovering. These three lines moving together indicate that consumer electronics and tech hardware are indeed warming up.
But what really made me think more is the logic chain behind this. If phones sell well, chip demand stays stable; stable chip demand means AI computing infrastructure capital expenditure won't stop; with ongoing computing power investment, $BTC as the underlying asset keeps its support. I previously said that with US Treasury yields soaring to 2007 highs, global capital is searching for outlets, and $BTC's digital gold attribute will only strengthen. Now it seems the tech hardware sector is also fueling the long-term logic for crypto assets.
However, despite the bullish view, I'm still not in a hurry short-term. The market still lacks new inflows; $BTC is grinding between 62000 and 65000, $ETH is stuck below 1900, and without real money coming in, even the best industry logic can't move the market. I'm still the same as before, holding a little spare cash, not chasing highs or guessing bottoms. The signal to really wait for is simple: stable ETF inflows and significantly increased trading volume. Without either, the grind continues.
Tech hardware bottoming out is good for crypto, but transmission takes time. Consumer electronics recovery → stable chip demand → ongoing computing capital expenditure → risk appetite slowly returning. If this chain completes, only then can the crypto space expect real new inflows. For now, let's see how earnings season wraps up and where the money flows. No need to rush to jump the gun; let the bullets fly a bit.
What do you think? Can this tech hardware rebound carry over to crypto, or will they just do their own thing? Let's discuss in the comments.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Oil Prices and U.S. Treasuries Jointly Pressure Gold Prices to Plunge from Highs: Will the Bull Market, Up 10% This Month, Fade Before Jackson Hole?
Spot gold saw a significant pullback during Tuesday's session under the dual pressure of rebounding international oil prices pushing up inflation expectations and rising U.S. Treasury yields.
The logic for short-term speculative funds is very straightforward: rising risk-free yields on U.S. Treasuries and higher energy prices directly increase the "opportunity cost" of holding zero-coupon gold, prompting some bulls to take profits on the eve of major macro events. However, from a longer-term perspective, even after a short-term pullback, gold's cumulative gain this month still strongly holds above 10%.
Facing the current high-level volatility, three underlying signals deserve close attention:
First, the monthly gain still exceeds 10%.
A short-term pullback of several tens of dollars looks more like a healthy rotation during a rapid rally exceeding 10% in a single month, rather than a trend reversal.
Second, Mitsubishi UFJ clearly indicates bottom-buying support.
Retail investors are closely watching daily fluctuations of a few basis points in U.S. Treasury yields, while global non-U.S. central banks and long-term institutions continue to firmly increase gold holdings. Sovereign de-dollarization and inflation-hedging credit protection form the most solid physical foundation of this gold bull market, naturally immune to short-term micro interest rate fluctuations.
Third, the real showdown is at Jackson Hole.
The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes are about to be released, and Fed Chair Powell is set to deliver a major speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting. Once the interest rate path becomes clear, suppressed liquidity could trigger a new round of counterattack at any time.
In the short term, consider the opportunity cost of interest rates; in the long term, consider sovereign fiat credit. While short-term speculators fret over the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, long-term funds usually only care whether the pullback has created a better right-side accumulation zone.
Before the Jackson Hole meeting boots drop, do you think this gold pullback is a good opportunity to buy in batches on dips, or a warning signal of a short-term top? If U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, would you choose to reduce positions and wait, or take a contrarian early position?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 I just rewatched the market, and I think the biggest concern now is not whether $BTC is rising, but that price, leverage, and capital risk appetite are misaligned. As of my time of market viewing, $BTC was near 64,700, with an intraday high of 65,036. The 15-minute EMAs at 7, 25, 99, and 200 have formed a clear bullish alignment, and the MACD is also above the zero axis. However, when it cuts to the daily chart, the price remains below the EMA99, around 66,300 yuan. So 65,000 now feels more like a doorstep, not a breakout confirmation. Yet, at this level, BTC perpetual funding rates have risen to nearly 20-month highs. CryptoQuant's data shows that bulls are willing to pay increasingly high costs to keep holding positions. The biggest concern with this structure is not bullishness, but the fact that contracts get excited before spot prices: if 66,000 yuan is not taken for a long time, leverage itself could become fuel for the next fluctuation. (CryptoQuant) Strategy's recent moves are also worth a closer look. From August 3 to 9, it sold 1,690 BTC at an average price of about $64,262, raising $108.6 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares; meanwhile, it continued to replenish its dollar reserves through equity financing. (SEC) I don't understand this as "Strategy bears BTC." On the contrary, this indicates that enterprise-level BTC strategies are entering the second phase: not mindless hoarding, but dynamic management of financing costs among BTC, common stock, preferred shares, and cash. Looking at $ETH, it's even more nuanced. This is a formal signing between Ripple and Jeonbuk Bank in South Korea, which is a commercial banking cooperation and not a settlement with the Korean police; Previously, South Korean police investigated a counterfeit XRP staking scam case, which had no connection to Ripple's official entity; the two cases need to be distinguished. Jeonbuk Bank is the first regional bank in South Korea to connect with Ripple Payments, and also the third Korean financial institution collaboration Ripple has secured this year. The first two deals include the internet bank K-bank custody business and the bond tokenization test project for Jiaobo Life. This collaboration mainly targets Korean foreign trade merchants, cross-border creators, and tech innovation companies, using Ripple's payment infrastructure for cross-border remittances, compressing traditional SWIFT transfers from several days into minutes, enabling 24×/7 uninterrupted settlement. Key risk points: The protocol does not explicitly use XRP as a settlement asset. The entire payment network can flow only through fiat currency or use RLUSD stablecoins. The official policy has not promised that business traffic will directly consume XRP, which is the core reason why XRP reacted mutually or even weakened in the short term after the announcement. From a market narrative perspective: this event indicates that traditional Korean regional banks are beginning to accept Ripple's cross-border payment technology, serving as a long-term positive signal and proving Ripple's ongoing implementation on the Asia-Pacific B2B market; But in the short term, it's just sentiment hype and hasn't brought real capital to XRP right awayFundamental Research Report $OCEAN / Ocean Protocol (AI/Computing Power) $3.20
Conclusion first: Ocean Protocol ($OCEAN) has a comprehensive score of 56/100, rated as narrative outweighs implementation. Breaking it down into three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Project overview: Ocean Protocol (token $OCEAN) operates in the AI/computing power sector. It focuses on data trading + AI training. Competitors include FET and TAO. Traditional computing power rental is dominated by giants like AWS and CoreWeave, charging by GPU hours, with A100 monthly rent at $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high-threshold. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding, suppliers require no centralized approval, turning idle GPUs into available supply. Customer unit price is $50-$500/month, settled in USDC or fiat. This is a narrative-driven sector, with usage dropping 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: the protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboards show protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. The latest version was not found; 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User metrics: address MAU and DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (allocated to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized with no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing can be checked on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales refer to whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by technical VCs, technical integration is grade B based on API/SDK evidence, strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token details: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Ocean Protocol $3.00B, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. FDV: Ocean Protocol $4.20B, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Annual revenue: Ocean Protocol $2.00M, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Ocean Protocol undisclosed, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Data based on public snapshots; missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario includes revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients joining, FDV P/S aligns with top players.
Summary: fundamentals are solid (score 56/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextending expectations; FDV is moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlocks causing sell-offs, protocol revenue long-term dropping to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Ongoing monitoring: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data derived from public sources, not investment advice. Conclusions invalid if core indicators change by more than 30%.
Report finished, please consider carefully.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitOn Wednesday, August 19th Beijing time, the White House will hold a high-level closed-door meeting. Trump will attend in person, with the SEC, CFTC chairs, Treasury Secretaries, and Commerce Secretaries also present. Leading crypto companies and venture capital firms such as Coinbase, Ripple, Chainlink, Gemini, Robinhood, as well as executives from traditional financial giants like Nasdaq and Intercontinental Exchange, will be invited to participate in the discussion. The day after the meeting, the first public meeting of the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee began, discussing topics such as crypto regulation, market prediction, and AI. Currently, the U.S. Senate has stalled in advancing the CLARITY Act's crypto regulatory bill. The core purpose of this closed-door meeting is for industry representatives to exchange views face-to-face with White House regulators and discuss the direction of adjustments to the regulatory bill. It is the policy event attracting the most industry attention in the short term. Breaking down from the perspective of market expectations: In the short term, this is a forecast-driven positive development, but the uncertainty is extremely high. Historically, the White House Crypto Summit saw a rally with "a rally before the meeting, but a rapid pullback after falling short of expectations." The market was already betting on expectations of regulatory clarity, but closed-door meetings did not immediately introduce formal legislation, making it difficult to deliver substantial policy benefits immediately. Impact of sub-bidding: 1. BTC: Benefiting from expectations of an improved overall regulatory environment, if the talks send positive signals, it will boost institutional confidence in long-term allocation; However, the meeting itself does not directly generate incremental funds; the market is more of an emotional pulse. 2. XRP: Ripple executives are proactiveLast night SNDK dropped 4.9%, and tonight it fell even harder, plunging 9.79% from 1,799 to 1,628. SKHYNIX fell 8.64%, MU dropped 7.43%. The entire storage sector has reverted to pre-liberation levels overnight. Those who chased the highs three days ago probably can't sleep now. But there's a detail many people haven't noticed. 📊 ETH and BTC did not follow the decline. While SNDK dropped 9.8%, ETH actually rose 0.13%, and BTC increased 0.39%. What does this mean? It means funds haven't left the market but have flowed out of the storage sector into ETH and BTC. This is a classic sector rotation. After SNDK rose so much, investors took profits and moved out, but instead of exiting the market, they shifted to the more stable ETH and BTC. This is actually a healthy signal for the overall market. The key question now is: will SNDK's decline drag down the entire market, or is it just an internal sector adjustment? I lean towards the latter. Because SNDK's pullback after rising nearly 40% from 1,300 to 1,800 is not due to fundamental problems. And with ETH and BTC still rising, it shows the overall market sentiment is not panicked. 📊 Key levels Symbol Current Price Key Support Key Resistance SNDK $1,628 1,550 1,800 ETH $1,915 1,900 2,000 BTC $64,752 $64,000 66,000 💡 Next stepsWhat if the next BTC catalyst isn’t the Fed—but a quieter Middle East? 👀
Washington is reportedly weighing a post-war reduction of US forces in the Gulf, potentially moving toward a lighter and more flexible military presence instead of fully rebuilding damaged bases.
🛢️ Lower geopolitical risk → potential pressure on oil prices
📉 Lower oil pressure → less inflation anxiety
💵 Less inflation stress → better rate-cut expectations
🚀 Better risk sentiment
#DailyOrbit #BitMine增持至581.5万枚ETH，质押率约87%
The boss has something to say
BitMine's ETH holdings have reached 5,815,000 tokens. Last week, they added another 9,926 tokens, with total holdings accounting for 4.8% of the ETH supply. Of these, 87% have been staked, with 5,067,309 tokens earning yield in the staking pool.
This is not just simple coin accumulation. BitMine is executing a compound strategy of buying plus staking; the holdings themselves appreciate in value, and staking generates incremental yield. The corporate crypto treasury model has evolved from buy-and-hold to a three-layer structure of buying, staking, and capital allocation.
The ETH/BTC ratio has broken a long-term downtrend, and this technical signal coincides with BitMine's increased holdings in the same time window—not a coincidence.
BitMine alone has locked up 4.8% of the supply, with most still locked in the staking exit queue. For ETH, this level of institutional lock-up provides medium-term support. However, it is important to note that if such concentrated holdings exit simultaneously at some future point, liquidity pressure could be significant.
While Strategy is selling, BitMine is buying. Corporate treasury behavior is diverging, shifting from a single-direction long position to various individual strategies.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.They think chasing rallies and taking orders is tough, and shorting heavily dropped coins will bring peace of mind, but that's not necessarily true. When a coin surges, you want to go against the trend to reach the top; when it drops significantly, you subjectively think it's time to rebound and rush in. Brands like LAB, BEAT, and $BICO surged and then continued to decline downward, looking attractive and easy to catch a knife when entering. The most expensive sentiment in trading: I think it's time to rebound and peak, so don't place orders based on feelings. The market is currently in a mid-session tug-of-war, not a one-sided trend: strong coins repeatedly insert needles at high levels, while bears haven't cleared out; Weak coins keep falling, and bottom-fishing bulls haven't finished cutting out their losses. ▪️ For strong coins, look at open interest. If your position doesn't decrease, don't blindly chase short sellers, or you'll be swept away ▪️. For weak coins, check the funding rate—if the rate is positive, bottom-fishing funds are still holding on, and the rebound time hasn't arrived ▪️. Contract market trends can't be judged with spot thinking. Two types of simulations: ✅ When the market stabilizes, oversold counterfeit coins will see short closing and trigger a rebound ⚠️. If BTC breaks down, all altcoins collectively sell down again. 'Too much will lead to a rebound' is just an illusion. Right now, it's not about who predicts accurately, but about patience. Don't rush to prove yourself; distinguish whether your position is following the trend or driven by emotions. ⚠️ Personal opinion, not investment advice, contract risk is extremely high$BTC $ETH $BEAT #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard by @OKX Growth Academy @OKX Planet South Korea has blocked domestic access to Polymarket after classifying its model as illegal gambling.
This highlights a major risk for prediction markets: being onchain does not remove local legal exposure. Growth may continue globally, but regulation will decide where users can actually access these platforms.
#XiaomiQ2Earnings #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals
$BTC First, the core conclusion: now is not the time to blindly bottom-fish on the left side. Whether it's the US SanDisk main stock or the crypto token $SNDK, this round of decline is a concentrated profit-taking at a high level, not a complete breakdown. Bottom-fishing must wait for clear stabilization signals before acting. First, distinguish the underlying logic of two stocks: the US SanDisk stock itself, which rises based on industry narratives such as AI storage shortages, long-term supply contracts, and higher earnings expectations. The medium- to long-term fundamental logic remains, but the previous trading day saw a record-high turnover of $32.044 billion with a turnover rate of 12.51%, representing a huge high-level divergence. Today, heavy volume plunged, and in the short term, a large amount of short-term funds concentrated to take profits and flee. Short-term sentiment has reversed, and even if the medium- to long-term logic hasn't disappeared, it will take time to digest the high-level hold-up chips. The crypto token $SNDK is just a token mapped to US stocks, with no actual business. Its price passively follows the US stock price fluctuations, with all hype driven by market sentiment, with volatility far greater than the underlying stock. Yesterday, during the peak phase of the hype, single-day contract turnover exceeded $6.2 billion, with a large amount of speculative capital turnover at high levels. After the heat quickly fades, selling pressure will be released even faster. There is no so-called industry fundamental support; the game is purely about emotional recovery. From the market capital, during the current decline, trading volume remains high, indicating a downward trend with increased volume. Falling with high volume is often not a bottom signal, but rather indicates that selling pressure is still being released. Bottom-fishing right now is a typical left-side catch; the rebound is most likely just a brief technical correction. Many trapped positions above will exit as soon as there is a slight rebound.$SOL shows a bullish position structure driven by event positives around $76. The mainnet activation of Agave 4.2 reduces storage rent by 90% and expands transactions, combined with a $254 million RWA inflow in the past 30 days boosting risk appetite. If overall market liquidity is ample, technical efficiency improvements will attract chasing positions to accelerate entry. Once the market's risk aversion triggers profit-taking at high levels, it is necessary to observe the actual defense at the $76 level and the net capital flow.
#Strategy上周出售3.34亿美元股票，提高美元储备 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高OKB dropped to $98, and the question my wife asked me kept me up all night. Have you ever had a moment where, even though you chose the path you chose, you have to face your closest person at your most desperate moment? In the morning, she held her phone and spoke softly: "It's dropped to 98, you borrowed my money to buy it, is it okay?" I stared at the screen, fingers dangling over the keyboard, unsure of what to reply. Because I bought it a long time ago, the average price is much higher than the current price, so it really doesn't look good on paper. But today, I don't want to talk about family ethics; I want to talk about one thing: OKB's recent decline is not its own problem at all. When watching the market, I usually put OKB, BNB, and BTC on the same screen. You'll notice a clear pattern: every time BTC pulls back, the platform coin's drop is amplified by 1.5 to 2 times. This is no coincidence; it is the transmission path of leveraged liquidation. - When BTC pulls back from its high, the first thing the futures market experiences is a high-multiple long position—after liquidation, funding rates turn negative and lending demand drops—platform coins, as "equity-like assets," are prioritized for selling to exchange for stablecoins—the less liquid a coin is, the deeper the decline. OKB is a typical example. So when OKB fell below $100, it was more like the market was trading expecting "shrinking risk appetite," rather than having a fundamental problem. Look at BNB's movement—the same rhythm, just a milder range. What deserves more attention now are cross-market linkage signals. The US tech sector is just one thingThe US military plans a "post-war downsizing" in the Middle East, with Gulf bases no longer being rebuilt
The Washington Post revealed that the Pentagon is evaluating plans to reduce troops in the Gulf after the war, with a core consideration to withdraw some forces from the Persian Gulf. Several US bases have been severely damaged by months of Iranian attacks, and the military intends to take this opportunity to adjust its deployment, possibly shifting away from rebuilding as before to a lighter, more flexible deployment model.
However, this evaluation is still in the "cautious planning" stage, and the Defense Secretary has not yet ordered a formal review. The final decision depends on how the war concludes.
Impact on BTC and ETH:
Short-term bullish — Expectations of US military contraction ease tensions in the Middle East powder keg, putting pressure on oil prices to fall, reducing inflation worries, and providing a sentiment boost to interest rate-sensitive crypto assets. BTC and ETH have slightly rebounded on the news.
Medium-term uncertainties: ① Withdrawal may create a power vacuum, triggering new frictions, with geopolitical "long-tail risks" still present; ② The US military's strategic focus may shift to the Asia-Pacific, indirectly disturbing global supply chains and mining hardware circulation.
Coin differentiation: BTC benefits from the "de-risking" narrative and shows more resilience; ETH's ecosystem activity is relatively low, with weaker gains compared to BTC.
Overall: If withdrawal expectations gradually solidify, it is a mild positive for BTC, neutral to slightly bullish for ETH, but volatility tends to narrow. In the short term, attention should be paid to BTC support at $64,000 and ETH support at $1,900, with subsequent trends still primarily influenced by Federal Reserve policies.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK: Momentum Is Back — But Is the Liquidity? 👀
$SNDK just posted another strong session, climbing 8.9% on August 17 and extending its winning streak as AI demand continues to fuel the memory sector.
But here’s what I’m watching: crypto liquidity is still selective.
$BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, and $APR are starting to attract attention, while $KAITO’s upcoming unlock could add fresh supply pressure.
The easy mistake? Chasing #XiaomiQ2Earnings #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals Brief synchronization of important information
1. There should be significant progress in the Strait of Hormuz this week
If progress occurs, it will immediately benefit the Japanese and South Korean stock markets
Here you can directly call $KORU $SOXL
Crude oil is also the biggest threat to inflation in Japan and South Korea
Relative changes in the strait will bring a relative opposite effect to the market
2. I will fully accompany everyone for the 10y US Treasury auction at 1:00 on Wednesday
This 10y US Treasury auction may be the most important of this quarter
It will guide whether the market heads toward a recession
3. Employment data, CPI, and PPI guidance all point to no rate hikes, but last week's decline in consumer data has raised market concerns about a recession. Today's decline is also due to this
4. This decline is unrelated to defensive moves before NVDA earnings; this time it is more about recession defense causing the drop
A typical safe haven
5. Gold remains an important long-term target
6. Pay attention to the cryptocurrency summit held at the White House on Wednesday, with participants including SEC, CFTC, and crypto company leaders such as Coinbase, Robinhood, Ripple, Gemini, etc. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said tokenization may become a focus of the summit.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 $BTC gaining ~1% while ETH remains nearly flat suggests selective risk appetite rather than a broad crypto rebound. With the 30Y yield at its highest level since 2007 and expectations shifting away from a September hike, markets are navigating a tricky mix of persistent term premium and a potentially softer policy path. My view: $BTC can continue to show relative strength in this environment, but $ETH ’s lack of confirmation makes it too early to call this a durable risk-on move. Gold’s bullisAltcoins are getting hit hard right now. Audiera's $BEAT token has fallen close to -14% in a day and roughly -78% over the week. Biconomy's $BICO is down around -50% over seven days. $KAITO has dropped more than -25% weekly. $H and $APRtokens are also under pressure, though live figures for those two are too unclear to state with confidence right now.
A steep drop doesn't confirm the bottom. Sellers can keep pushing prices down even after a coin looks cheap. Rather than asking how far it's already fallen, ask whether the selling has actually stopped. In a fast-moving market, patience often beats trying to time the exact low.
NFA
#XiaomiQ2Earnings #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals
$BTC $ETHDuring the collective sell-off, $SPCX behaved unusually steadily, especially with the next batch of 7%, or 319 million shares, unlocking on August 20.
It's hard to say whether funds are buying in before the unlock to induce a pump or if arbitrage funds are entering early ahead of the Nasdaq weight adjustment on September 18.
The former suggests a gradual decline after the August 20 unlock, while the latter implies buying support could last until September 18.
Generally, the biggest selling pressure on SPCX stock price is between 155-175; holders below this range may be reluctant to sell, while those above might chase prices up to the 200-300 range.
If next:
Recovering 146.23 and then holding above 150: indicates genuine support, temporarily invalidating the pump suspicion.
Closing between 143–145: price remains stable before unlock, direction uncertain.
Breaking below the VWAP around 141.7, and then losing 140 at the close: suspicion of a pump-and-dump increases significantly.
On August 20, a volume surge breaking below 140 and failing to rebound: basically confirms this round is providing liquidity for unlocking shares to be absorbed, with the next likely test at 135.
On the unlock day, a huge volume but holding 140–142 and closing above 143: instead indicates new supply is absorbed by the market, possibly repeating the "sell the expectation, buy the fact" pattern from the first unlock.#The corporate treasury story of $BTC has encountered the Strategy variable, while the institutional story of $ETH is still waiting for the staking ETF to truly open.
Strategy and Michael Saylor have always been the soul figures of the BTC corporate treasury narrative. In the past, when the market saw Strategy continuously buying coins, it felt that there was a long-term buying force behind BTC. Recently, with more discussions about Strategy-related selling, pausing purchases, dollar reserves, and preferred stock arrangements, the market has begun to realize: corporate treasuries are not faith machines; even if companies are optimistic about BTC, they must manage cash flow, financing costs, and capital structure.
This is a necessary demystification for $BTC. BTC cannot forever rely on one company’s purchases to maintain faith. The significance of Strategy should shift from "always backing the bottom" to "a corporate treasury case." It proves that listed companies can put BTC on their balance sheets, and also shows that doing so faces constraints from financial engineering, shareholder returns, debt, and market volatility. For BTC to become a global asset, it must have more diversified buying power rather than relying on a single heroic narrative.
The institutional story of $ETH follows a different path. ETH also has ETFs and institutional attention, but what truly moves institutions is not "a certain company continuously buying," but on-chain yields and application-layer value. The key question for ETH is: can staking yields be smoothly captured by ETFs or compliant products? Can DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA convince institutions that ETH is the foundational asset of on-chain finance? If these questions are resolved, ETH’s institutional buying will resemble yield and tech infrastructure allocation rather than corporate treasury reserves.
This is the difference in the institutionalization paths of BTC and ETH. BTC enters institutional view through balance sheets and macro reserves, while ETH enters through yield and on-chain finance. BTC’s issue is not to overly rely on Strategy; ETH’s issue is that staking and application value have not yet been fully packaged into products that institutions are willing to buy at scale.
In a high-interest-rate environment, this difference is critical. BTC has no yield, but it sells scarcity and non-sovereign attributes; ETH has yield, but the yield must be compared to U.S. Treasuries, minus volatility and regulatory uncertainty. Institutions buying BTC can treat it as a gold substitute; institutions buying ETH must do the math: staking yield, fees, risks, liquidity—whether it is truly worthwhile.
Therefore, when writing about the institutionalization of BTC and ETH today, it’s best not to mix them into one thing. BTC is moving from a corporate treasury myth to diversified allocation; ETH is moving from a tech ecosystem story to a yield asset test. One needs to shed the shadow of a major buyer, the other needs to prove that on-chain yields can be accepted by institutions.
BTC needs more buyers; ETH needs a clearer yield framework. Both are institutionalizing, but they are on two completely different paths. On the 18th, U.S. President Trump stated on social media that there will be no talks or dialogue with Iran now or in the future. He also said that the U.S. maritime blockade against Iran remains fully effective, the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating normally, and all mines have been cleared or detonated.
This news itself will not directly cause a major surge or crash in cryptocurrencies.
It is equivalent to: the biggest bomb's fuse has not been lit for now, but the fuse has not been cut either, so subsequent volatility will be amplified. The market will largely depend on whether military clashes occur afterward; without conflict, the trend will return to its original technical pattern; if something happens in the strait, it will be a clear negative factor.I've recently been observing a very unusual data point:
BTC dropped from 126,000 to 64,000, nearly halving, but U didn't crash along with it.
In the last bear market, the total stablecoin supply shrank by nearly 30% from peak to bottom.
Back then, it wasn't just BTC falling; even the on-exchange USD liquidity was withdrawing, meaning money was truly leaving Crypto.
But this time it's different.
The total market cap of stablecoins recently peaked around 322B, and currently remains about 301B, only down about 7%.
In other words:
BTC dropped nearly 50%, but the on-exchange U remains at historically high levels.
This suggests the capital structure between the two bear markets might be completely different.
Last round: capital directly left Crypto.
This round: capital first leaves risk assets, converting into U and staying on-exchange waiting.
Of course, U still being there doesn't mean BTC will be bought tomorrow, nor should all stablecoins be considered as bottom-fishing bullets.
The next step is to watch exchange stablecoin balances.
The conclusion is:
This round, the market isn't out of money; rather, money is temporarily unwilling to take on risk.
So what we should do now is not chase the rebound, but start selecting truly high-quality assets worth accumulating in batches. $VVV surged 10% in a single day, finally an "AI coin that can make money" has appeared
VVV rose 10% intraday today, trading around $13.3, standing out brightly in the mostly green AI sector.
1. The core driver is real money
Venice AI (founded by serial entrepreneur Eric Worriss) announced annual revenue exceeding $100 million. AI concept coins are everywhere, but most only tell stories; this one truly has revenue, profit, and a business model. The market voted with real money today.
2. The positioning hits the mark
Venice focuses on privacy AI, not storing user data. In an environment of tightening regulations, "not touching user data" has become the strongest moat.
3. My judgment
The revenue boost is genuine, but after a 10% single-day rise, there will inevitably be short-term profit-taking. Consider buying again only if it pulls back to 12-12.5 without breaking below. Also, a reminder: the overall AI sector dropped over 3% today, don’t expect this one to carry the entire sector alone. A coin that can make money is like a man who can make money—charming, but you also have to choose the right time to enter~Okb and other trading platforms used to focus on: number of coin types, transaction fees, and trading depth. Now the competition is about: asset quantity, capital efficiency, product diversity, institutional services, and cross-asset trading capabilities.
Whoever can first connect the chain of "crypto assets—stocks—RWA—yields—lending—derivatives—institutional capital" is more likely to become the next-generation global digital financial platform. Therefore, crypto exchanges are evolving from "places to trade" into financial super apps that can trade and manage global assets. And this may be the real next competition after the crypto industry enters the mainstream financial system.#30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
The long end of the US Treasury yield curve has really been "acting up" lately.
The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to a range of 5.29% to 5.32%, directly touching the highest level since 2007, like an old buddy who's been holding back for over a decade finally standing up and shouting: "You want me to stay cheap? No way!" The nearby 10-year Treasury yield is not to be outdone, climbing to about 4.72%, the two in harmony creating tension across the long-end market.
Behind this, the US Treasury, the "debtor," is getting busier and busier. The debt scale keeps expanding, the pressure to issue long-term bonds is rolling like a snowball growing bigger, and inflation stubbornly remains above the Federal Reserve's target. So, the long-end yields have no choice but to "raise their prices" to express dissatisfaction. Meanwhile, June data shows that three "old clients"—the UK, Japan, and China—have quietly reduced their holdings of US Treasuries, as if telling this old buddy: "The market's unstable lately, so we're pulling back a bit."
Adding to the excitement is the AI funding wave. Wave after wave of tech companies are rushing into the investment-grade bond market "asking for money," instantly making long-term funds highly sought after, with everyone scrambling fiercely. With funds being heavily diverted, US Treasuries naturally find it harder to please buyers and can only continue to raise their "price."
For $BTC, the short-term outlook is bullish! 😱😱😱 The person who told me to "never sell"—his company has been selling for three consecutive weeks
The whole internet is spreading Saylor's words: "I have never sold a single coin."
Technically, he’s not lying. The coins being sold belong to the publicly listed company Strategy, not his personal wallet. He still holds 840,000 BTC on his books, accounting for 4% of the entire network, remaining the largest corporate holder worldwide.
But looking at the timeline: at the end of May, they sold 32 coins to test the waters; from late June to early July, they sold 3,588 coins; last week, they sold another 1,690 coins, cashing out $108 million. That’s three consecutive weeks. And they’re selling at a loss—cost basis 75,385, selling price 64,262, losing about $11,000 per coin.
The "never sell" promise was first broken at the end of May, and in July the board raised the selling authorization from $1.25 billion to $5 billion.
Why must they sell? Preferred stock dividends. Q2 dividends alone were $400 million, compared to only $49 million in the same period last year. If the coin price doesn’t rise, the machines have to be paid with coins. Faith is faith, but creditors are creditors.
The most painful lesson here is: every die-hard holder has been taught a lesson—you treat others’ faith as your own stop-loss, but when others liquidate, they won’t take you down with them.
Saylor personally hasn’t sold. But retail investors don’t have a second wallet to separate from. If the coins in your hand drop 30%, that’s a real 30% loss.
The 840,000 coins are still there; only 0.6% sold this year, so no panic yet. But the fact that "the biggest buyer has become a weekly scheduled seller" is more important than how many coins are sold. ETFs are flowing out, MSTR is selling, and $63,000 is still holding—that’s resilience. But if the reason it holds is because retail investors are taking the baton, that’s not confidence, that’s passing the relay.
I’m not saying the bull market is over. I’m saying: from today on, don’t use "Saylor hasn’t sold" as your reason not to set a stop-loss. He really hasn’t sold—his company has.
How much of your "never sell" faith remains? 1: Full throttle, buy more as it drops 2: Set a stop-loss, this statement has cost me dearly 3: Already out, watching your show $BTC $ETH $XAU #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
The short-term spike in long-term bond yields is more of a one-time market reaction to fiscal and price expectations, and should not be simply equated with a permanent establishment of high long-term interest rates.
Overseas central banks' portfolio adjustments are routine asset rebalancing, not concentrated risk-averse flight; active corporate financing instead reflects ongoing endogenous economic demand. The overseas bond market's linked adjustments merely follow the global term premium recovery and do not indicate a systemic risk outbreak in the bond market.
Rising interest rates will cause short-term disturbances, but transmission to the real economy is delayed. As long as the employment base remains solid and inflation does not rebound, monetary policy will not continue to tighten. Various assets are temporarily impacted by sentiment, but medium- to long-term trends still depend on fundamentals, so there is no need to overstate crisis expectations.