
Post
Alexa Hardy
đš TONIGHT COULD DECIDE BTCâS NEXT BIG MOVE â CPI IS THE REAL TEST.
Iâm Brother Ci. Tonight at 8:30, CPI drops, and the market has been stuck below $64K for an entire week, waiting for this exact number.
The Assassin community is also ready for tonightâs live broadcast. đ
So what is the market expecting?
đ Market expectations:
âą Headline CPI MoM: 0.1%
âą Core CPI MoM: 0.2%
âą Headline CPI YoY: 3.4%, down from 3.5%
âą Core CPI YoY: 2.5%, down from 2.6%
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Fed Nowcast is slightly hotter:
âą Headline CPI MoM: ~0.19%
âą Core CPI MoM: ~0.16%
Why is this CPI more important than the non-farm payrolls?
Non-farm payrolls already pushed September rate-hike expectations down from around 60% to roughly 40%.
But over the past week, those odds bounced back toward 48%.
CME data is now almost a coin flip:
~52% probability of holding rates vs. ~48% probability of a 25 bps hike.
Oil has rebounded to $83.9, Fed officials are sending increasingly hawkish signals, and inflation expectations are heating up again.
Employment is weakening.
But if inflation refuses to cool, the Fed faces an even tougher decision in September.
Thatâs why tonightâs CPI could be the number that tips the scale.
đą If CPI comes in COOLER than expected
For example, headline YoY below 3.4% or core MoM below 0.2%.
That would reinforce the cooling inflation trend.
September hike odds could fall from 48% to below 40%, potentially weakening the dollar and pushing Treasury yields lower.
For BTC, $64K becomes the key battle zone.
A clean breakout could open the door toward:
đŻ $65Kâ$65.5K
đŻ Then $66.5Kâ$67K if momentum continues.
The $64Kâ$64.5K area is also packed with potential short liquidations, so a high-volume breakout could trigger a fast short squeeze.
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #Gold4400HavenBid
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