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$BTC SEPTEMBER STARTS WITH A MACRO TEST Bitcoin isn't struggling to find a direction because the market has forgotten how to move. It's because traders are waiting for answers. After the Jackson Hole remarks, expectations around September Fed policy shifted sharply. Now, this week's employment data could determine whether those expectations strengthen or begin to reverse. Several important releases are coming one after another: • JOLTS job openings • ADP employment • Initial jobless claims • Nonfarm payrolls Together, these numbers will give the market a clearer picture of whether the U.S. labor market remains resilient or is beginning to weaken. And that's where the real Bitcoin connection comes in. If employment remains stronger than expected, traders could interpret that as less urgency for easier monetary policy. That could mean: Stronger rate-hike expectations → higher Treasury yields → tighter financial conditions → more pressure on BTC and other risk assets. But if employment deteriorates meaningfully, the market could start pricing a softer Fed stance. The transmission could then move in the opposite direction: Weaker labor data → lower rate expectations → improving liquidity sentiment → potential recovery in risk assets. This is why I'm not putting too much weight on small intraday rebounds right now. A green candle before the data doesn't necessarily mean the market has turned bullish. A red candle doesn't necessarily mean the trend has collapsed. Both sides have a reason to remain cautious. Bulls don't want to chase into potentially hawkish data. Bears don't want to build oversized positions before a number that could completely change expectations. That creates the kind of environment where BTC can suddenly move hundreds or thousands of dollars without warning. And with leverage involved, those moves can become even more aggressive. For me, the priority right now is capital preservation. If you're working with limited capital, there is little benefit in going all in before a major macro catalyst.