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#EarningsObserver: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon Report Tonight
Tonight (7/29 after US Eastern market close), Microsoft + Meta report first, followed by Amazon tomorrow. These three companies' combined AI capital expenditures for 2026 are heading toward $500 billion+, exceeding the GDP of most countries.
The market currently isn't short on AI stories, but lacks ROI evidence:
• Microsoft’s outlook on Azure (consensus ~40% growth) + Copilot adoption + 2027 CapEx guidance; if quarterly CapEx breaks $40 billion, free cash flow will continue to be pressured
• Meta’s ad revenue expectation is about $59 billion, but CapEx guidance is $125–145 billion, with burn rate outpacing the ad engine’s traction
• Amazon tomorrow will be watched for whether AWS can hit 30%+ growth and if the $200 billion CapEx will be revised upward
Implications for the crypto space:
These three are the ultimate buyers of Nvidia GPUs, data center power, and AI narratives. If earnings confirm cloud revenue outpacing CapEx, risk asset appetite will return, and $BTC could leverage this momentum to test previous highs; if they collectively play out a Google-style "good earnings but CapEx revised up again, stock price down," Nasdaq futures will be pressured overnight, and crypto markets may see volume-driven pullbacks in the early morning. Don’t just watch BTC candlesticks overnight; first check MSFT/META after-hours price changes.
My personal stance: Tonight isn’t about guessing price direction, but about whether AI capital expenditures can prove themselves. I’m not adjusting my crypto positions until this is over. "The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long term." - Benjamin Graham
Just got off the phone with a friend in New York, who thinks market sentiment is quite poor and leans to the other side. He’s been watching SOX closely; by the end of June, he believes the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index can take another step up +60% in the “long run.”
But the volatility in between won’t be small. It has dropped 21.15% from its high, and according to historical data, there’s still 8%-11% downside space. SOXX could reach $460.
He previously bought Microsoft (his favorite), Google, and Amazon, preparing for the next AI cycle rotation. They’ve also fallen with the broader market. Google’s ATH caused dilution, and the halt in buybacks also had an impact.
But the backlog is right there. This infrastructure race will definitely see everyone giving their all until not a drop of oil can be squeezed out. If any hyperscaler is willing to stop, or if everyone privately reaches some kind of agreement, that will be the takeoff point for cloud providers.
Right now, AI infrastructure spending hangs over us like the "Sword of Damocles." Everyone is guessing when the spending will stop increasing or plateau. Currently, both buyers and sellers are under pressure.
Chinese AI companies face cost-performance challenges, like ChangXin. They are currently overvalued in the short term but shouldn’t be underestimated in the long term. Whether ASML, Micron, or SK Hynix, they will face competition in the future. Strategic supply chain protection may not necessarily stop competition.
Looking at 2027 and 2028, the impact is actually minimal. ChangXin can’t even meet demand within mainland China, let alone save demand elsewhere in the world, especially with U.S. policy restrictions and roughly a 3-year iteration gap in HBM technology.
"Stories about AI spending cuts and challenges for Chinese companies will keep appearing, affecting market sentiment." - ccl
So when will AI infrastructure spending stop growing?!
Actually, most people haven’t noticed the growth in AI data sovereignty.
Nvidia core data (FY2026, ending January 2026):
Sovereign AI revenue: over $30 billion, more than tripled year-over-year.
Proportion of total revenue: about 14% (approximately $215.9 billion).
Proportion of data center revenue: about 15.5% (data center full-year revenue about $193.7 billion, up 68% year-over-year).
"Sovereign AI refers to purchases by national governments or state-supported entities to build their own AI infrastructure (data sovereignty, security, research, defense, etc.), using the same Blackwell systems as hyperscalers (e.g., GB200-NVL72), with no impact on gross margin."
Sovereign AI revenue grew over 80% year-over-year, with infrastructure deployed in nearly 40 countries. ACIE (AI Clouds, Industrial & Enterprise), including sovereign AI, will take over AI infrastructure construction spending.
By 2029, we should see AI spending slow down or even plateau.
Who can replace Nvidia, TSMC, the three major clouds, and the three HBM giants?!
Today, I continue to buy NVDA within my means, while holding back some ammo for TSMC, Micron, and SK Hynix.
NFA, DYOR.
A friend asked Chris if he’s coming to New York this time? To have a coffee and catch up in Manhattan.
C: Next time.
Still remember the excitement when arriving in New York in 2011. New York is still New York, but New York is no longer the same New York!
No one can stop the great AI wave, the arrival and baptism of the cycle.
So let’s work hard to ride this wave, go with the flow, and pass on the legacy in an orderly way.
$NVDA $TSM $MUStorage Standards Plunge Collectively! What is the root cause of such a sharp drop?
In fact, Sister Long warned last night that after-hours earnings reports would directly affect $SNDK $SKHY $MU, which was the most direct trigger 🔥
Last night, post-market earnings from STX Seagate and KLAC Technology were released, directly crashing the entire storage sector 📉📉📉
1. Seagate STX: Current data is acceptable, but next quarter's capital expenditure guidance is significantly conservative 🫥
Cloud vendors are expected to slow the growth rate of AI hard drive purchases, which the market views as a cooling of AI storage purchasing enthusiasm, causing valuations across the entire storage industry chain to collectively fall.
2. KLAC: Orders fall short of market optimistic expectations
Demand for semiconductor equipment is not as hot as expected, dampening the enthusiasm 🧊 for buying in the semiconductor sector
The financial report fully fulfilled negative expectations, but unfortunately, the post traffic was low and few people saw it.
Although there may be a technical rebound from oversold in the short term, mid-term expectations have already been changed by the earnings report. Don't rush to bottom-fish during a rebound!
#交易所定价异常致海力士永续暴跌 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, deposit stocks experienced sharp fluctuations Big Tech earnings. $10T on the line.
Tonight + tomorrow: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon report. Nasdaq looks calm, but everyone’s gripping the armrest.
The real question: is AI actually changing the world, or just the most expensive experiment ever? We start finding out now.
Quick take:
Apple — Boring but steady. iPhone prints cash, AI moves slow. Safest of the four.
Microsoft + Meta — High risk. If Azure misses or capex doesn’t cool, expect instant pain. Meta’s test: can ads cover the burn?
Amazon — Closes it. AWS needs >33% growth or the $200B infra story gets shaky.
3 things to watch:
1. Capex guidance — Google got slapped -5% after hours for overspending. Say “no limit” and watch stocks bleed.
2. Cloud growth — Azure and AWS prove if AI actually makes money. Slowdown = thesis breaks.
3. Free cash flow — Google went from $25.7B to negative. Microsoft and Amazon also fell off a cliff. Meta still burns $30B+/q. Another miss here and the AI narrative takes a hit.
Semis feeling it too: SK Hynix, SanDisk, Micron all getting hit.
Seatbelts on. 🚀
#DailyOrbit #FedRateDecision
#BigTechEarningsNight 📉 Korean stocks continued yesterday's downward trend: the KOSPI index fell below 5,700 points, triggering a suspension of algorithmic trading. SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit surged 557%, hitting a record high but still missing expectations (both revenue and profit fell short). U.S. stocks fell over 9% in after-hours trading, and Korean stocks fell 9.61%.
The core contradiction is: the AI demand narrative still exists (HBM shortage may persist until 2030+, multi-year orders signed, HBM4 is in progress), but the market is already worried about "slowing price increases + cycle top risk."
When the market has maxed out "HBM scarcity + ultra-high profits," setting a record high has become a deduction. High growth meets expectations gap, and sentiment instantly shifts from "AI perpetual motion machine" to "Is it peaking?" In the short term, it's about sentiment shocks; in the medium term, it's still about whether HBM capacity release and real AI capital expenditures are delivered.
Semiconductors have always been a game of expectations, and now the focus has shifted: from "Will AI demand continue to surge?" to "How much longer can this ultra-high profit margin last?" The real direction to be set next is the actual shipment volume and price of HBM4, whether Q3 results can meet expectations again, and whether free cash flow can continue to rise in sync after the expansion.The most consistent signal over the past two hours isn't bullish or bearish, but rather stop-loss within the range. Around 11:53 on OKX, BTC was about 63,728 and ETH about 1,893; BTC's funding rate was about 0.003%. The positions were not hot, but ETH was clearly weaker than the previous round.
ERIC's MMT long position stops loss as planned, losing 1R; Another BTC long position in the champion chart also chose to break even, indicating that the 63k–64k price range is still stalling. Yekoi/Fengxun simply said they would wait until after the FOMC meeting, which actually fits the current market best.
There are still differing views: Victorious and Follis maintain a BTC long or spot approach, while Phobia's old BTC short continues to set a stop loss at 66,580. CakeBaba pays more attention to interest rate decisions and external market fluctuations. The Fed's official website schedule confirmation meeting is being held on July 28–29, and before the news is finalized, the certainty of direction judgments is limited.
There were no new qualifying opportunities in this round. Mia's GRASS long position originally planned to enter at 0.33032 and stop loss at 0.3175. OKX's current price is about 0.3173, having already reached the expiration level; Although XPL traded at 0.0815, it did not have a full stop loss or target price; PROMs cannot be verified on OKX, so none are pursued.
Next, let's see if BTC can hold at 63k and if 64.2k can be broken; If ETH fails to recover 1,910, it will continue to be treated as weak and consolidating. #BTC #ETH
These are for the purposes of opinion and information compilation only and do not constitute investment adviceSKHYNIX has surpassed 1,000, and the big players are clearly starting to panic
If it drops sharply again, the leveraged trading will be almost completely cleared
The morning earnings report showed honest good data, with both revenue and profit rising, net profit hitting a new high of 93.9 trillion yuan. But the market was not buying it because it didn't meet expectations. The valuation of AI hardware is now tightly sealed, with zero margin for error. Even a slight shortfall means it's a sign of being the first to leave
It's like a ticket with a perfect person's design—if even one misstep is made, the market immediately turns hostile.
But the core logic hasn't changed—the HBM barrier remains, and the pricing power is still in SK Hynix's own hands. So this isn't a fundamental issue; it's that the previous rally was too aggressive, liquidity is tight now, short-term valuations are squeezed, and selling is pouring in together. This highly consistent sell-off often happens in the final stage of a shakeout, followed by another sharp sell-off, basically hitting bottom. No one can pinpoint the exact level, but regular market watchers can feel it when the signal arrives
Tonight, the Fed is the focus. Let's hear how Walsh phrases it. If the market is dovish, even if it's just a bit loose, the market rebound after being suppressed to the extreme will be very fast. If it's hawkish, there might be one final kill, but that's actually the right place to act!
Keep an eye on it, the signal is about to break out of $BTC #美联储即将公布利率决议 The price has repeatedly broken through the 5/20/50-day moving averages, and the entire cycle moving averages are turning downward in unison, forming strong bearish pressure; Every small rebound has seen institutional take-profit and selling orders, triggering quantitative stop-loss programs in batches, resulting in negative feedback from selling more as prices fall, with more selling and more trampling. Hedge funds and public funds net sold over 4.2 billion U in a single day. Everything was running, retail investors were hit the peak, some were forced to liquidate, some were cutting losses, and cries of despair filled the air. On July 29, SK Hynix released its Q2 earnings before the market opened, with both revenue and operating profit below Wall Street's consensus expectations, shattering the market's optimistic view that the storage boom cycle would continue to exceed expectations. The market logic of "buying expectations, selling facts" is fermenting, with funds predicting the storage price increase cycle will peak early, and all storage stocks across the sector are fleeing collectively; SanDisk mainly focuses on NAND flash memory, with higher cyclical sensitivity than its peers, and its decline far exceeded the sector average. Tonight, the Federal Reserve announced that U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, and market-priced high interest rates will persist for longer; The valuation center of the high-valuation cycle technology sector continues to shift downward, with funds withdrawing from highly volatile growth stocks like storage and AI hardware toward consumer and pharmaceutical/defense sectors, further accelerating capital outflow in the storage sector. The daily RSI has fallen to the extreme oversold zone of 22, but the MACD green bars continue to expand, indicating that bearish momentum has not faded; The oversold signals of the strong cyclical storage sector are limited in reference value. Under panic selling, it is prone to sustained bearish declines and bottoming out, with very weak short-term rebounds. Don't bottom-fish, guys, go with the trend, short and ski, then run away. Tonight, there's also the #FedSoonToRateDecision$SNDK $S#美联储即将公布利率决议
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
This time, the Fed will most likely keep the rate unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%, but with the Fed ditching forward guidance, the market still bets on a nearly 36% chance of a rate hike. This is the "hardest to predict" situation in recent years.
A truly hawkish stance would pressure growth stock valuations, causing gold and the Nasdaq to fall first; a dovish stance would lead to a tech rebound and a recovery in risk appetite.
My strategy: wait for the wording to be released in the early hours of the 30th. If hawkish, cut exposure to power, securities, and innovative drugs to avoid the sharp edge; if dovish, lightly buy into strong earnings-driven computing infrastructure.
For mid-term core holdings, focus on "high dividends + earnings realization," treating the Fed's tone as a switch—no betting on direction, just timing the rhythm.$BTC BTCDrops Below $BTC 461 as Upgrade Fails to Boost Sentiment
Zcash completed its Ironwood hard fork yesterday, retiring the old privacy pool and fixing a potential inflation bug. But the market reacted with a sell-off — ZEC is down 3% in 24 hours to $BTC 461.
The core issue: ~3.56M ZEC ($1.7B) still stuck in the old pool, awaiting manual migration. Slow progress fuels sell-pressure fears. Classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" play.
Long-term picture: Bug fixed, quantum-resistant features added. Institutions still see ZEC as a privacy-sector cornerstone. Holders should complete migration promptly and use privacy tools like Tor.
#FedRateDecision
#BigTechEarningsNight
#SKHynixRecordMiss How can you withstand the current US stock market trend without learning K-line techniques? Although it was a sharp drop, it was actually easy to manage. In the short term, the market is much easier than cryptocurrencies with low volatility, slow movement, and sideways bottoms. As long as position management is reasonable, short- to medium-term US contracts for leading storage companies in the second half of the year will be very profitable.
I started trading SanDisk contracts around the 10th of this month. First, I determined that on June 25, it had already capped at 2374, predicting that it had ended its one-and-a-half-year bullish trend since its listing in February last year and was about to enter a cyclical correction. With this overall direction established, the short- to medium-term market will be much easier. The current trading phase for SanDisk is equivalent to starting from mid-October last year from BTC's peak 126208 short positions, first breaking below 102,000, then shorting directly to 81,000, then going long here, all with large swings. Long-term short positions are the main axis; periodic bottom-fishing is medium-term. Between the stage bottom and the target rebound range, short-term long and short positions can be made. This is the rhythm of taking trades during a major adjustment cycle. #美联储即将公布利率决议 $BTC 🗳️ U.S. stock capital voting begins counting. Traditional market style: gaining support. High-volatility technology sector: temporarily lost shares. Internal Stock Division: Severe Divergence. US stock closing data on July 28, 2026: DIA: $526.89, +1.08% QQQ: $675.49, -0.97% AAPL: $340.08, +0.94% NVDA: $197.01, +0.25% TSLA: $307.44, -0.58% SNDK: $1,096.10, -14.25% First 🟢 vote for Dow style DIA up 1.08%, QQQ fell 0.97%, about 2.05 percentage points behind the two. Funds have not fully withdrawn from US stocks, but have shifted from high-volatility technology sectors to relatively stable large-cap and traditional industries. This is not simply a risk closure; it is more like risk repricing. 🍎 Apple still received support votes, rising 0.94%, continuing to show strong support. Nvidia rose slightly by 0.25%, but has yet to recover $200; Tesla fell 0.58%, continuing to lag behind Apple. Inside tech stocks, it's no longer about rising and falling together; each company is undergoing a new round of capital scrutiny. 🔴 SanDisk received an elimination ticket: SanDisk plunged 14.25% in a single day, with a trading volume of about 26.63 million shares closing at $1,096.10. The consecutive sharp declines indicate that the storage sector is still releasing risks. Even if a rebound occurs$TER's rise is directly related to Bybit's opening of TER trading on July 2. This is TER's first time obtaining independent trading pairs on a mainstream trading platform, whereas its circulation channels were relatively limited. The opening of new trading scenarios gives more investors the opportunity to access this asset, while also generating incremental buying interest.
TER tracks the stock performance of Teradyne, the absolute leader in the global semiconductor test equipment sector. Currently, global AI infrastructure construction is at its peak. From GPUs to ASIC chips, all high-performance computing chips must undergo rigorous testing and validation before leaving the factory, and Teradyne's equipment is almost an unavoidable part of the process. Industry analysts generally believe that as demand for AI computing power continues to rise, shipments of semiconductor testing equipment will maintain double-digit growth over the next two to three years.
Teradyne's own financial data is also quite robust, with recently announced quarterly order volumes exceeding market expectations, especially with significant growth in customer demand from the U.S. and Southeast Asia. These fundamental factors are already fermenting, and the opening of the TER trading channel happens to resonate at this timing, allowing more traders to easily participate in this logic. The market always favors liquidity expansion targets, and TER's recent rise is a typical example of a "fundamental narrative + liquidity improvement" dual driver.Honestly, I sincerely reflect on the current market: this round of sharp declines is not caused by a single negative factor, but is a systematic liquidation of the global AI bubble. Since the exposure of Nvidia's "self-financing and self-selling" scam, the belief in AI band banding has completely weakened. Tech giants in the US and Korean stocks have plunged consecutively, with high-level drawdowns generally around 40%-50%, putting pressure on leveraged funds across the board.
After this spread to the A-share market, leading AI optical modules, storage, and chip stocks collectively flopped, heavyweight stocks crashed the Innovation and Entrepreneurship Index, and the profit-making effect was completely wiped out. But the market was extremely fragmented: the index showed full bearish patterns, and most small and mid-cap stocks and traditional industry stocks resisted the trend and recovered.
This year's A-share market has been disruptive. The tech structure bull market in the first half of the year was tempting, with countless people following suit and adding positions. However, in July, there was a unilateral pullback, with losses far exceeding those of an ordinary bear market. More importantly, the market declined on reduced volume without stabilizing action, indicating that this round of valuation clearing is still ongoing and is unlikely to stabilize in the short term.
Looking at the bigger picture, the entire financial ecosystem has entered a phase of risk repricing. Global tech assets are deflating bubbles, risk appetite continues to decline, and funds are fully hedging risks. The crypto market has also lost its support for speculation, weakening along with the equity market. Whether it's A-share tech or the crypto sector, both have bid farewell to the mindless rally era and entered a brutal bubble-squeezing cycle. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $BTC #美联储即将公布利率决议 #银行业联名施压, CLARITY stablecoin terms may be regenerated Today, the Korean index hit the circuit breaker again, dropping like a kimchi jar. Retail investors haven't finished crying yet. The central bank keeps hitting the plate, saying inflation will exceed target in the second half of the year, so tightening is necessary and the market stability work continues. $BTC $ETH $SNDK literally means first raising rates, then pressing the chopping block for CPR. Anyone with eyes can see it. This is deliberate deleveraging, first crashing the stock market to force leveraged investors to surrender, then throwing a spoonful of rate hike oil on them, then calling themselves firefighters. Retail investors ask about stability, and the central bank replies: steady decline, steady liquidation, steady slap in the face. This is called expectation management. It drops so low that no one dares to bottom-fish The market naturally stabilized. This round of South Korea's decline isn't just a simple economic issue—it's a deliberately deleveraging process. Big stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung have been hit hard, the semiconductor sector is being crushed and rubbed against the floor. Korean stock market circuit breakers are shaking as well. Korean retail investors are being attacked from both sides. After the stock market loses, the crypto world loses. Sentiment is shattered. Central bank stability and retail investors' understanding of stability have never been the same thing. #FedSoonRateDecision #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon to deliver tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks are experiencing sharp volatility Privacy is getting a serious upgrade. 🔒
Zcash's Ironwood network upgrade is now live. $ZEC
A new verified shielded pool is active, and the turnstile mechanism is ensuring supply integrity. No shortcuts. No compromises.
Grayscale Zcash Trust (ticker: $ZCSH) remains the only pure-play exposure to $ZEC available in select U.S. brokerage accounts. Institutional-grade access, native privacy tech.
The infrastructure is hardening. The narrative is clean.
Watch the shielded side.Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release their earnings reports this Wednesday and Thursday, shifting market attention from "how much growth AI can bring to the imagination" to "when will the massive investment yield real cash returns?" After Alphabet was sold off due to increased capital expenditure and Tesla posted its largest weekly drop since 2022, investors' patience with tech giants continuing to expand data centers and purchase AI chips is waning. One of the indicators the market cares about most right now is "free cash flow." Because even if revenue and profits continue to grow, as long as capital expenditures increase faster, the cash that companies can truly retain may still be significantly squeezed. Therefore, in addition to observing the growth rates of cloud businesses like Azure and AWS in this financial report, attention should also be paid to whether AI products are starting to generate real revenue and whether management has raised capital expenditure guidance again. If cloud growth and AI commercialization cannot keep up with spending, market concerns about the AI investment payback period may continue to grow; Conversely, if free cash flow improves and capital expenditure growth slows, this wave of AI investment anxiety may temporarily ease. The market is not currently distrusting AI, but rather unwilling to pay for expenses without a clear payback period. The above content is solely for personal research results and viewpoint sharing. Rational discussion is welcome and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing carries risks; please assess and make decisions prudently.
#财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will hand over their results tonight 📊 "OKX Community Bullish and Bearish Sentiment Map" (7.29)
By organizing the publicly available market opinion samples, it is clear that the current market is in a rather special phase: funds have not fully exited risk assets, but trading attitudes are shifting from "actively chasing rallies" to "waiting for confirmation."
Whether it's the crypto $BTC $ETH or the US AI, $SNDK semiconductor, and storage sectors, the biggest common psychological trait among retail investors right now is:
Long-term optimism about industry logic; short-term concerns about price and valuation.
The market has gradually shifted from the "buying expectations" phase over the past two years to a "watch for deliveries" phase. @张教主. Brothers, the Korean stock market has experienced a "Black Tuesday"! South Korea's KOSPI index triggered the circuit breaker mechanism for two consecutive days on July 28 and 29, spreading market panic and making the semiconductor sector a hard-hit area. Event Overview: On July 28, the KOSPI index fell to 8%, first triggering a suspension of programmatic trading, then officially triggering circuit breakers. On July 29, KOSPI plunged another 8.17%, simultaneously triggering circuit breakers in the KOSDAQ index, causing trading halts for 20 minutes both times. After the circuit breaker is triggered, all stock, futures, and options market trading in South Korea's securities market is suspended simultaneously. What happened? On the surface: Semiconductor sector collapses collectively. The core driving force behind this sharp drop is the collective weakness of major semiconductor-related stocks. Although leading companies like Samsung Electronics performed strongly, they failed to stop the overall market downtrend, with stocks ranked high by market capitalization generally falling sharply. In-depth Look: Triple Pressure Stacked 1. US semiconductor crash transmission transmission: Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the US stock market plunged over 5%, SanDisk and Western Digital dropped over 12%, and AMD dropped over 8%. South Korea's semiconductor industry is highly linked to US stocks, and panic quickly spreads across the ocean. 2. Concerns over AI capital efficiency spread: Market doubts about whether massive AI investments can be converted into profits are spreading from the US to Asia. Japanese and Korean semiconductor stocks have been under pressure for several consecutive days. 3. Macroeconomic Uncertainty: With the Federal Reserve's rate decision approaching and geopolitical risks rising, funds are choosing to reduce positions and exit before uncertainty materializes. #停火48小时告吹, the US and Iran negotiated while fighting
The ceasefire lasted only 48 hours.
On July 27, just after the two sides paused their attacks, on the morning of July 29, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched multiple ballistic missiles from their homeland at U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East. The U.S. military claimed to have intercepted all of them. Subsequently, the U.S. Central Command announced that it and Saudi Arabia had jointly struck targets commanded by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard within Iraq—in response to Iran's attacks on U.S. forces and Saudi energy facilities.
Both sides are fighting, but both sides are negotiating. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister revealed that Oman has proposed a temporary concession plan for the Strait of Hormuz—with Iran and Oman each controlling 50% of the passage rights. Iran demanded that the sea route be fully controlled by its side, which has not yet been accepted. U.S. officials confirmed that the coordination plan does not involve any tolls. According to Solid Intel, after Iran and Oman approved the new proposal for the strait, the U.S. and Iran are close to restoring the previous 60-day memorandum of understanding, but Washington's approval remains pending.
(1) Oil prices have already responded
After the news broke, WTI crude rebounded above $80. Previously, due to expectations of a ceasefire, WTI plunged 8.68% in a single day to around $77. The geopolitical risk premium is rapidly returning. If a ceasefire is ultimately reached, oil prices could fall back to the $70-75 range; If negotiations break down and the conflict continues to escalate, oil prices may test $85-90 again.
(2) What does this mean for the crypto market?
The collapse of ceasefire expectations means inflation expectations are heating up again. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise, and when inflation expectations rise, the Fed dares not easily pivot. BTC fluctuated between 64,000 and 65,000, ETH traded sideways between 1,860 and 1,890, and the impact of oil prices is slowly transmitted through the chain of "oil prices→ inflation→ interest rates, →risk assets." The FOMC rate decision will be announced early Thursday morning, Beijing time, and the market is waiting for clearer signals.
(3) My judgment
A broken ceasefire does not mean an escalation of the war; diplomatic channels remain intact, and the Oman plan is still underway. The market may reprice this conflict as a "manageable level of edge friction" rather than the start of a full-scale war. Next, three key points to consider: first, whether the U.S. and Iran will restore the 60-day memorandum of understanding; Second, whether the joint management plan for the Strait of Hormuz can be accepted by both sides; Third, whether oil prices will stabilize above $85. Before the FOMC decision is implemented, observe more and act less, waiting for clearer signals.
$CL $BTC $ETH On the Nth day of studying US stocks, today I suddenly thought of a point. Whenever something new is born, most people's first reaction is to study it, experience it, and think about how to participate. But many investors in the capital market are watching another thing: who is selling shovels for this wave. AI is the most typical example. From the sudden emergence of ChatGPT to the full-scale explosion of AI, several years of industrial development took place. Many people are discussing which model is the strongest and which application is the best, but the ones who truly make the first wave of big money are not just the AI companies themselves, but the entire industry chain. Here's a very real case. When ChatGPT was first released at the end of 2022, almost everyone's attention was on OpenAI, discussing how AI could write articles, draw images, and code. But the capital market quickly realized that every time AI generates content, it requires massive GPU computing power behind it. As a result, the market began to aggressively lay out Nvidia, and with the explosive demand for GPUs, it further drove the entire HBM high-bandwidth storage, optical modules, servers, liquid cooling, data centers, and power supply chain. The final outcome is well known: many people did not invest in OpenAI (at the time, ordinary investors couldn't do it either), but by investing in NVIDIA and AI infrastructure-related companies, they reaped one of the biggest dividends of this AI bull market. This is also my biggest insight recently. Investment andFrom the RSI indicator, Bitcoin has already formed a bullish divergence on the weekly K-line, but on-chain data does not yet support a major bottom. Realized Price and LTH RP have not been broken, with a CVDD around 48K, about 25% away, so I believe there is a very high probability of one last drop.
This final drop is likely to build on the existing bullish divergence by adding a larger time range to the previous bearish divergence. This situation also occurred in 2022.
$BTC Brothers, tonight is destined to be sleepless.
At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve will announce one of the most unpredictable interest rate decisions in recent years. BTC briefly fell below $63,000 yesterday, hitting an 11-day low, and is now barely catching its breath around $63,800. This wave of selling is all about "clearing mines" for tonight.
---
1. Suspense at its peak: 30% chance of a rate hike, unprecedented
How special is this meeting? Simply put, three things:
· Market expectations are severely divided: Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is about 30%, while the chance of no change is about 70%. Don’t underestimate this 30%; in past years before Fed decisions, market expectations were almost always 99% one-sided. UBS economists bluntly say, "It’s never been this uncertain in 20 years."
· Waller abandons "forward guidance": The new Fed Chair Waller has clearly given up on the practice of signaling the interest rate path to the market in advance. Without a "policy compass," the market can only guess, which is the root cause of such huge divergence this time.
· Rare internal conflict among institutions: JPMorgan believes the rate hike probability is lower than the market pricing (maintaining no change, hawkish statement), but Castle Securities is clearly betting on an "unexpected 25 basis point hike." There may also be at least two hawkish dissenting votes within the Fed.
2. Bitcoin is different this time
Interestingly, although the market is seeking safety, Bitcoin and AI tech stocks are showing signs of decoupling:
· Since July, BTC has risen about 6%, the S&P 500 is basically flat, while the semiconductor index has dropped nearly 20%
· K33 Research points out that the Nasdaq was previously overcrowded, while Bitcoin has been consolidating near multi-year lows; the weakening correlation between the two is natural
· Analysts believe that if Waller sends any dovish signals, Bitcoin may continue to show relative strength
Of course, this doesn’t mean BTC will be unscathed tonight. $15.4 billion in long positions were just liquidated, and the market is still digesting this "leverage purge."
3. How will tonight go? Two scenarios
Scenario A: No change + hawkish tone (most likely)
JPMorgan predicts about a 50% chance, with the S&P 500 fluctuating between +0.25% and -0.5%. BTC will likely oscillate between 63,000 and 65,000, with no big surprises.
Scenario B: Unexpected 25 basis point hike (30% chance)
If this happens, tech stocks will take the hardest hit, and the Nasdaq 100’s decline could double. BTC support could drop to 62,000 or even 60,000. Castle Securities is betting on this direction to assert authority and fight inflation.
There’s also a small probability event: if Waller "goes dovish" tonight (28% chance), BTC might have a chance to challenge above 65,000 again.
My judgment
Don’t heavily bet on direction before the meeting. Under this "once in thirty years" uncertainty, the cost of being wrong is too high.
Operationally, wait for the 2 a.m. result. If no change + a non-aggressive statement, the bearish logic is falsified, and you can lightly try going long; if there’s an unexpected hike, don’t bottom-fish—wait for the emotional venting to finish before looking for opportunities.
Remember: in this market, staying alive is more important than making money. 💡
💬 Interactive topic: Are you betting on "rate hike" or "no change" tonight? Leave your name in the comments, and come back tomorrow to see who the prophet is.
#美联储即将公布利率决议
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 The decline in US stocks and the rise in Korean stocks indicate that the core of the capital divide is not the loss of demand, but differences in valuation and transaction structure.
HBM4 has already started to ramp up volume, and long-term contracts are locking in orders and profits, so fundamentals are actually more stable than the spot cycle. Once high expectations are digested, the market will eventually resume trading for the next round of shipment growth.
Gaps in financial reports are responsible for squeezing out high valuations.
HBM4 continues to ramp up volume, which is responsible for igniting SKHY's next round of repair.$SNDK AI hardware plunge is a short-term deleveraging! But SanDisk still struggles to break free from the Fed rate decision pressure in the short term
AI hardware continues deep correction, with more people starting to question whether the long-term logic of AI storage is broken.
Serenity's latest view offers a different conclusion: this round of sector plunge is essentially an overcorrection caused by short-term deleveraging of funds, not a deterioration of fundamentals. But a key reminder: stable long-term logic ≠ immediate short-term bottom. The July 30 Fed rate decision remains the most important variable suppressing SanDisk $SNDK!
I. Core Information Summary
1. Fundamental support persists
Multiple companies' earnings reports continue to deliver high growth. Google raised its 2026 capital expenditure to $195-205 billion, showing cloud providers' clear commitment to AI expansion. The market has overly exaggerated the negative impact of Fed rate hikes and domestic storage overcapacity. Upcoming earnings from SanDisk and SK Hynix are expected to continue validating accelerated AI storage demand.
Meta, Google’s long-term procurement agreements, and HBM industry chain cooperation confirm AI storage has structural long-term growth.
2. Correction characterization: fund deleveraging, not logic collapse
This round of storage and AI hardware sell-off is volatility caused by concentrated withdrawal of high-leverage funds at peak levels. As long as the industry chain’s revenue and profits continue to accelerate, the long-term repair logic of the AI sector remains unchanged, though institutions admit they cannot predict the exact bottom timing.
II. In-depth analysis of SanDisk $SNDK market
Long-term perspective:
The underlying logic of expanding AI server SSD demand has not disappeared. Institutions expect earnings to continue validating demand. The extreme panic-driven decline will gradually digest valuation bubbles.
Short-term core conflict:
Long-term positives cannot offset current macro pressure! The July 30 Fed rate decision is imminent.
1. If the Fed signals hawkishness, rate cut expectations will be delayed. High-valuation tech assets will remain under pressure. SanDisk’s current rebound is merely an oversold correction; the bottoming cycle will lengthen. Do not mistake the rebound for a reversal.
2. If the Fed signals dovishness, market sentiment will improve, combined with fundamental expectations, SanDisk may see a stronger recovery rally. However, heavy trapped positions above will cause volatile oscillations, making a straight one-sided rally unlikely.
III. Clear practical strategies
✅ For holders stuck in losses
Do not use “long-term logic” as a reason to stubbornly hold. Any rebound before and after the rate decision is a window to optimize positions.
Reduce holdings in batches during rebounds to lower risk; keep a base position to play the long-term repair, freeing funds to handle potential secondary dips. Avoid full positions resisting the market.
✅ For those preparing to bottom-fish
Do not heavily buy on the left side now! Institutions cannot confirm the bottom yet.
Choose one of two safe entry conditions:
① Fed decision is out, and negative factors are fully digested;
② The market stabilizes continuously, forming a bottom structure.
Only then try small positions to test, build positions in batches, avoid all-in bets.
✅ For short-term traders
Volatility will spike sharply around the decision, suitable only for short-term plays on oversold rebounds.
Strictly use stop-loss, target short-term rebound profits, decisively take profits at resistance, do not hold long-term views; if the market rallies but stalls, immediately abandon bullish ideas.
✅ For short positions
If the decision is hawkish and the rebound is weak, resistance stalling can continue light short attempts;
If the decision signals dovishness, avoid shorting with the trend, do not fight macro sentiment.
Long-term demand logic remains, short-term Fed decision sets the tone. Do you think SanDisk can start recovery after the rate decision? Share your views in the comments, recommended to bookmark and keep tracking market changes.
⚠️ Risk warning: Content is market logic analysis only, not any trading advice. US stocks are highly volatile due to policy and capital factors; participate rationally and strictly control positions.
$SNDK $MU
#美联储即将公布利率决议 $SKHYNIX Outstanding performance, yet the stock price has diverged dramatically!
Revenue, operating profit, and net profit all hit record highs.
Operating profit surged 557% year-on-year!
However, revenue and operating profit still did not meet market expectations.
This financial report is far more complicated than the word "good news"!
SK Hynix's Q2 revenue reached 79.32 trillion KRW, operating profit was 60.54 trillion KRW, and net profit surged to 93.92 trillion KRW. However, the market had previously set even higher expectations, with both revenue and operating profit falling short, and only net profit significantly exceeding expectations driven by investment returns.
The divergence is also directly reflected in the stock price: SKHY's U.S. stock plunged nearly 9% during regular trading hours, while Korean domestic stocks rebounded about 4%. It's not that storage demand suddenly collapsed, but rather that the company's share of high-end HBM continues to rise, and with long-term contracts locked in prices from about 10 core customers, performance stability is stronger. However, the profit elasticity of enjoying the short-term surge in spot prices has also been weakened.
The good news is that HBM4 began mass shipments in the second quarter and will continue to ramp up in the second half; HBM4E samples have also been delivered. The real debate in the market is not whether there is still demand for AI storage, but how long such high profit growth can last. $ETH $SNDK #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp volatility #交易所定价异常致海力士永续暴跌
The data is already strong, but market expectations are even crazier than the data.
This isn't a collapse in fundamentals, but rather a high valuation facing harsher judgment.Now, about trading: group members can't handle it either, so let's string them together.
A major oscillation cycle where US stocks and macro cycles diverge
Trading rate hike expectations isn't about raising rates; my forecast this year is that the market won't open the straits before June (positions have been closed), and there won't be a rate hike this year.
Changxin is smoothing out the overdrawn $SKHYNIX supply-demand premium
$SPCX at 186 was flat
All of the above are just hindsight views; you can find them in past posts.
As for Meilishi's recent move, I originally planned to wait two days for Changxin to rise and then gradually add shorts.
Unfortunately, Meilishi was even faster than me, and Hanlishi's mid-rebound meant my position was limited.
Blame me for being timid, so I haven't traded much in US stocks.
The top sister said that even over the weekend, Bstock's trading volume surpassed $1 billion.
This massive transaction increase has occurred in two places:
First, hedge funds initially shifted their holdings from Hanli City to Meili City.
Second, oil prices fell this weekend, and Changxin went public.
From trading habits, it is clear that many are traditional capital trading practices.
It also shows that many traditional capital companies have entered OKX, and its development is really fast. $BTC #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon deliver tonight. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations #美联储即将公布利率决议 Before the Fed's rate decision, the most discussed topic in the market was whether there would be rate cuts. But for the crypto market, what truly determines the market may not be this meeting itself. Because the market has already traded in some interest rate cut expectations in advance, what truly matters is whether the liquidity environment will change in the future and whether funds are willing to re-enter crypto risk assets
In recent years, the crypto market has undergone a major transformation, evolving from liquidity frenzy during the low interest rate era to capital selection in a high interest rate environment. During periods of low interest rates, market funds are abundant and risk appetite is extremely high. At that time, a narrative, a concept, or an ecosystem could attract massive capital to drive valuations.
That's why we've seen explosions in DeFi, NFT, GameFi, and various public chain ecosystems.
But after entering the high interest rate cycle, market logic began to change. The money hasn't disappeared, it's just become more cautious.
Many people still hold onto the mindset of the old bull market, thinking that as soon as rate cuts start, all coins will rise.
The future market will no longer be like in 2021, where a white paper, a story, or a grand vision can be valued at billions of dollars. Loose liquidity is just a condition. But not a reason for price increases,🚨 Two mega-cap earnings reports. One takeaway: markets are looking beyond headline beats.
Alphabet delivered a strong quarter, reporting $BTC 119.8B in Q2 revenue, while Google Cloud continued to post robust growth. Yet $GOOGL fell more than 4% after hours.
Why? Investors focused on the outlook rather than the results.
Alphabet raised its 2026 capex guidance to $BTC 195B–$205B, up from $BTC 180B–$190B, while free cash flow slipped into negative territory. AI remains a powerful growth story, but Wall Street is becoming increasingly concerned about the cost of funding it.
Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are now expected to spend a combined $725B on capex in 2026 ,around 77% more than last year.
The market is rewarding more than earnings beats. Forward guidance, cash flow, and AI spending are becoming just as important.
Tesla told a different story.
The company still holds 11,509 BTC, unchanged since 2022. Despite reporting a $112M quarterly loss tied to Bitcoin's earlier decline, Tesla neither sold nor added to its position.
No panic. No accumulation. Just HODL.
📊 Why this matters for crypto:
• $BTC continues to benefit from steady ETF inflows.
• Crypto remains closely correlated with the Nasdaq 100, making Big Tech earnings increasingly influential.
• Upcoming results from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon could shape both equity and crypto sentiment through their guidance.
One advantage for crypto traders: while US stock markets close after hours, crypto never sleeps.
With OKX tokenised US stocks trading 24/7 in $USDT , assets like $XGOOGL and $XTSLA remain tradable through earnings releases and weekends.
👀 Will the next wave of Big Tech earnings strengthen or weaken crypto sentiment?
#FedRateDecision
#BigTechEarningsNight
#SKHynixRecordMiss $SKHYNIX After experiencing a flash crash and massive liquidation triggered by an oracle capturing abnormally low pre-market prices on July 28, the continuous decline on the 29th did not trigger a new round of large-scale liquidations. This round of declines has preemptively cleared out a large number of high-leverage long positions, causing significant changes in market structure.
Currently, open interest has increased nearly 20% against the trend, indicating that bottom-fishing funds are still entering the market. But the holding structure reveals key divergences: the number of long accounts is more than three times that of the shorts, but the single position is much smaller than the shorts. Whale positions above $5 million are clearly biased toward shorts, with net short sales of about $34.3 million, while about 90% of small accounts under $10,000 are long.
This indicates that current losses have been spread across a large number of small long positions, while whales with capital advantages are betting downward through larger single positions. This is not simply retail investors bottom-fishing, but rather a standoff between large funds and retail investors over direction after a deep shakeout, which may intensify subsequent volatilityPolygon CEO Sandeep: Polymarket achieved huge success during the World Cup
Polymarket created over 300 World Cup-related markets, with trading volume in just one market reaching 4.2 billion USD
From Polygon's perspective, they do not want Polymarket to leave and build their own chain
Since the beginning of this year, Polymarket activities have consistently contributed over 50% of the daily transaction fees on the Polygon network
The better Polymarket does, the more Polygon earns passively
For Polymarket, the thriving cooperation between the two seems to provide more excuses to continue delaying building their own chain or even issuing tokens…Cash flow is king! Reviewing Google's Plunge to Understand Tonight's U.S. Market Trends #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon Deliver 💎 Tonight $GOOGL Core Lessons from the Crash: Market Valuation Logic Completely Reversed. Google's revenue and cloud business growth rates far exceeded expectations, but the stock price plunged. The root cause completely changed Wall Street's standards for judging AI giants: 1. First quarterly free cash flow negative in 22 years since listing: AI computing infrastructure burned through crazily, quarterly capital expenditure doubled year-on-year, and cash earned from operations could not cover the investment; It raised the annual capital expenditure cap twice this year and also announced further investment increases in 2027, with cash continuously being eaten up by computing power construction. 2. In the past, capital chased "whoever invested in expanding computing power led AI," but now only cash flow health and AI investment payback cycles are emphasized. Endless capital expenditures and inability to deliver profit returns have directly triggered concentrated institutional sell-offs, leading to valuation squeezing bubbles in high-level AI growth stocks. 3. Google, as the most stable cash flow technology blue chip, is still under pressure. The market generally fears that Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon may repeat their spending increases. The Nasdaq has been volatile and weakened for days, and storage and computing hardware sectors have collapsed simultaneously. $MU. $SKHYNIX, $SNDK $NVDA $SAMSUNG 🧬 Each has its own confidence and potential risks, maintaining the differentiation in market difficulty. Microsoft $MSFT: Most likely to hold the market (strongest resilience) Positive ✅ support: Relying on ABottom-fishing storage sector!!
Others panic, I am greedy,
Currently, the storage sector is undergoing a deep correction,
SK Hynix's $SKHYNIX Intraday Decline Widens to 12%,
Samsung Electronics $SAMSUNG fell 7.5%.
US-listed SanDisk $SNDK has been "halved" since July,
But this round of decline is more an emotional outburst than a deterioration in fundamentals,
AI demand remains robust,
SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit surged 557% year-on-year,
Moreover, storage is shifting from cyclical products to growth products.
Bank of America points out that storage stocks are valued at only 10 times the forward PE,
Seriously low to low levels;
Next,
South Korea's stock market fell over 8% intraday,
Multiple temporary suspension adjustments,
The market is in a state of extreme panic,
In early trading, South Korea signaled a market rescue,
Good news is expected in the afternoon,
This drove the storage sector to rebound from the bottom.
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experience sharp volatility #英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt The topic we discuss is essentially about networking resources. If everyone in our group is good friends and XX company is going public, then everyone can allocate some shares, which means they can subscribe to new shares early, which is basically a cash gift.
Take a look
On July 27, Changxin Technology Group Co., Ltd. was officially listed on the STAR Market. On its first day of listing, its stock price surged, closing up 465.82% and its market value rising to 3.28 trillion yuan, making it the company with the highest market capitalization on the A-share market.
According to Elephant News, Wuhan also participated in Changxin Technology's strategic placement, receiving 18.2448 million shares. Based on the issue price of 8.66 yuan per share, the company made a profit of 736 million yuan on its first day of listing. This company is Wuhan 1810 Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., established in 2021, with its office located in Wuhan East Lake High-tech Zone.
It is worth noting that Wuhan 1810 Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xiaomi Technology. The chairman of Xiaomi Technology is Lei Jun, who holds 97.48% of Xiaomi Technology's shares. In other words, Lei Jun made a floating profit of 717 million yuan on Changxin Technology's first day of listing through Wuhan 1810. $CORE Victoria Harbour cruise ship champagne keeps popping, 90% hash rate hyped, but the market price keeps falling to 0.015.
The official tweet claims to control 90% of BTC's hash rate, but in essence, it's just a trick to use statistical standards: 90% is just the number of mining pools with delegate functions enabled, and the on-chain real-time effective hash rate is only 30% of the total BTC network. Miners mark blocks just to extract CORE inflation tokens, with no deep binding.
The three major profit flywheels—SatPay payment, B14G dual staking, and ecosystem buyback—all fell through and failed to generate revenue. The team unlocked massive amounts of zero-cost tokens every month and continuously sold them through quantitative trading. On one hand, the Hong Kong cruise ship celebrated its success and built momentum; on the other, it used the sky-high 5U–15U price to trap all retail investors.
Computing power is just an empty concept; unlocking selling pressure is the reality. Blindly heavy positions and staking will only amplify unrealized losses.
#CORE #CoreDAO#苹果公司市值重回全球首位, surpassing Nvidia
Apple is truly impressive, pushing Nvidia down from the world's top market value position. At Monday's close, Apple rose 1.17% to $336.91, with a market value of $4.95 trillion. Nvidia fell nearly 5%, dropping straight back to 4.76 trillion. Back and forth, the gap has widened to nearly 180 billion.
The last time Apple sat in this position was in April 2025. Over the past year, NVIDIA has surged through AI chips, first surpassing Microsoft and then reaching the top. But now Apple has overtaken it—not because Apple has done something earth-shattering, but because the market is starting to recalculate the score of AI.
Nvidia's stock price has only risen 4% this year, while Apple has already risen 24%. One is burning money desperately to build AI infrastructure, the other is cautiously spending on renting computing power. The market now clearly prefers the latter's script. Apple released its earnings report after the market closed on Thursday. If it can hold its ground this week, this position will truly be secured.BTC bullish target prices are densely distributed between 100K-140K, Ethereum between $5,000 and $8,000, but does the current market already have the liquidity conditions to support these valuations?
Based on the original post, the author provided bullish target ranges for several coins over the next six months: BTC 100K-140K, ETH 5K-8K, SOL 300-500, DOT 20-80, APT 30-50, and so on. These figures themselves are not factual, but are projections based on three assumptions: "continued liquidity improvement, tight supply after the halving, and sustained expansion of on-chain activity." The key question is: have these conditions been fulfilled at present, or are they still expected?
On a factual level, the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 occurred, with block rewards dropping from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, and new supply has indeed narrowed. However, liquidity improvement is not a definite path—the pace of Fed rate cuts and US dollar liquidity indicators (such as the Fed's reverse repo instrument balance, TGA account changes) are still in the game. On the side of on-chain activity, Bitcoin active addresses and trading volume have not shown a trend surge after the halving, and the dilution effect of mainnet activity from Ethereum L2 scaling continues.
In terms of market structure, current capital behavior shows clear divergence. Passive allocation (such as spot ETF inflows) is the main force supporting BTC prices, but short-term speculative funds tend to favor MEME coins and new public chain tokens with low circulation and high FDV, rather than established ecosystem coins like DOT and AVAX listed in the original post. This means that if you only look at the target range, it's easy to overlook the question of "who will take over"—old coins need new narrative catalysts to attract speculative capital, which the current market does not provide.
Transmission logic: If BTC breaks 100K, it requires sustained net ETF inflows + macro easing expectations fulfilled + on-chain fees rebound (proving real usage demand). All three are indispensable. For ETH to break 5K, L2 ecosystem value must flow back to the mainnet (such as the blob fee market matures after EIP-4844) or capital spillover after ETF approval. Altcoin target ranges rely more on BTC's capital spillover effect after stabilizing at a high level, but if BTC consolidates in the 80-90K range, the liquidity premium of altcoins will shrink rapidly.
Bullish path: Assuming the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points in September, combined with pre-election policy expectations, BTC could reach 100K in Q4-2025. ETH and SOL may follow, but DOT and APT will need independent ecosystem development, otherwise their gains will lag.
Bearish risk: If sticky inflation forces the Fed to maintain high interest rates, or if ETF inflows slow, BTC may fall back to the 70-75K range, at which point altcoins will face a 30-50% correction. High-risk tokens like ICE and PNUT mentioned in the original post may be cut in half when liquidity tightens.
Conclusion: These target ranges are reasonable "bull market scenario" assumptions, but the current market has yet to confirm macro and on-chain conditions supporting this scenario. It is worth watching whether BTC can hold steadily above 90K with continuous volume growth, and whether weekly net inflows into ETH spot ETFs remain positive. If neither occurs, these targets lean more toward psychological anchors than actionable pricing references.
Risk Warning: The above analysis is based on assumptions, and the market may deviate rapidly due to regulatory, technical, or macro events. Please independently verify data and manage your position.
$BTC $ETH $SOLCeasefireHitsCrude: As Oil Cools, Global Markets Begin Repricing Risk
After weeks of being driven higher by geopolitical tensions, crude oil is entering a new phase as growing confidence in a ceasefire reduces fears of supply disruptions.
WTI crude has retreated to around $BTC 80 per barrel, down sharply from its recent peak near $BTC 93.5. This is more than a technical pullback—it reflects a significant shift in market expectations. As the perceived threat to global energy supplies eases, investors are no longer willing to pay the premium that had been built into oil prices.
What makes this move particularly important is that the market is now being influenced more by macro headlines than by traditional supply-and-demand fundamentals. A single announcement regarding the ceasefire or an unexpected development in the Middle East could rapidly change sentiment and trigger another wave of volatility.
If lower oil prices persist, global inflationary pressure could continue to ease. That would be closely watched by central banks, equity markets, and the crypto industry alike. Cheaper energy often improves overall risk appetite, creating a more supportive environment for growth assets such as $BTC, $ETH, and leading AI-related tokens.
That said, the oil market has a long history of sharp reversals. While the recent decline is notable, it does not necessarily confirm a long-term bearish trend. Investors should continue monitoring both geopolitical developments and key technical support levels before drawing firm conclusions.
CeasefireHitsCrude is no longer just an oil story. It may be the first signal that global markets are entering a new phase—one where geopolitical risk gradually gives way to renewed confidence, allowing capital to rotate back toward higher-growth assets and new investment opportunities.
#FedRateDecision
#BigTechEarningsNight
#SKHynixRecordMiss Earnings season hits a make-or-break night, and this time even a beat might not be enough.
Tesla, Intel and Alphabet all posted solid numbers and still got sold off, purely on AI spending fears. Alphabet beat expectations and dropped anyway. The Nasdaq 100 has since slipped into a technical correction, and short sellers are now piling into Meta, Amazon and Microsoft right before they report. The market is leaning bearish going in.
Microsoft and Meta report after Wednesday's US close, with Amazon right behind. Here's the setup:
· Microsoft: Azure guided to 39-40% growth, but 2026 capex is running near $190B, with over $40B in a single quarter
· Meta: revenue seen jumping about 27% to $60B, with capex guidance ballooning to $125-145B. It's also the cheapest name in the group at about 18x forward earnings
· Amazon: EPS eyed near $1.85, AWS growth and margins in focus
Zoom out and the number is staggering. Together with Alphabet, these giants are set to spend roughly $724B on capex this year, and nearly $950B in 2027. Investors want proof all that cash is turning into revenue, not just bigger data center bills. One soft cloud number could reset the entire AI trade.
The market is bracing for fireworks. Options are pricing swings of roughly 8% for Meta and 7% for Microsoft and Amazon on these prints. Microsoft alone could move nearly $189B in value on a single report, more than the market cap of most companies on earth.
Here's the catch: all of this lands after the US close, when traditional markets are shut. On OKX, tokenized US stocks like $XMSFT , $XMETA and $XAMZN trade 24/7, so you can react the moment the numbers hit instead of waiting for the next session to open.
If one of these swings 8% after hours, while traditional markets are still shut, do you jump on the move right away, or wait for the dust to settle?
#BigTechEarningsNight South Korea's stock market experiences consecutive circuit breaker crashes—a sign of a global financial crisis? History is repeating itself...
Many people treat South Korea's crash as a joke, thinking it's just the market volatility next door. Wrong! This could very well be the canary in the coal mine of a new global storm!
Look at history textbooks:
• 2020 pandemic: Korean stock circuit breakers→ four US stock circuit breakers three weeks later
• 2008 Subprime Loan: Korean stocks surrendered in July→ Lehman went bankrupt one and a half months later
• 2000 Internet Bubble: South Korea's semiconductor sector peaked three months early→ Nasdaq then plunged 80%
• 1997 Asian Finance: South Korea was the first to be breached→ US stocks broke down 12 days later
Why is it always Korea?
The iron rule of global capital priorities: protect the local market first, then abandon the periphery.
When European and American institutions run out of money, the first thing they do is sell their highly liquid overseas assets (Japan and South Korea) to save money!
South Korea perfectly hits all the "sacrifice" characteristics:
✓ The capital market is fully open, with free capital inflow and outflow
✓ Foreign capital accounts for 30%+, with Samsung Hynix being the top global selling choice
✓ Export-oriented economy, suffering the worst losses during global ebb
Current script:
With the bursting of the semiconductor bubble + capital flight, the tide receded first from South Korea, and will then be transmitted layer by layer along the supply chain → Asia-Pacific markets → Europe and America.
Key turning point: Watching the Federal Reserve!
In 2020, unlimited QE forced survival to survive. If the Fed doesn't cut rates to support (or even continues to raise rates) this time, a real global financial crisis will be on the way!
History doesn't repeat itself, but the underlying logic of capital draining blood has never changed.
At that moment, just like this very moment. $SKHYNIX $SNDK $BTC #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp volatility #HYPE遭大额解押减持, falling 10% in one week. #英伟达. Google provided massive guarantees for AI data center debt Opinion: South Korea's stock market circuit breaker mechanism has failed and is unable to effectively block sell-offs
Today, the KOSDAQ index plummeted more than 8% intraday, triggering a Level 1 circuit breaker (activated when the index falls more than 8% from the previous day's closing price and sustains for 1 minute).
The circuit breaker mechanism is no longer effective in blocking sell-offs. Previously, on July 28, both KOSPI and KOSDAQ triggered Level 1 circuit breakers on the same day, but KOSPI still plunged 10.84%, and KOSDAQ fell 7.72%.
The core logic behind this round of sharp declines is the revaluation of AI semiconductor stocks combined with structural defects in the Korean market. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together account for over 40% of KOSPI's market capitalization, and the volatility of these two stocks can sway the overall market direction.
Samsung Electronics is currently down 5.45%, and SK Hynix is down 9.81%.Many people only focus on the interest rate results, but what is even more vigilant is that familiar script seems to be unfolding again. 1. The Rhythm of the Last Time · Before the Rate Meeting: U.S.-Iran Signals Peace Talks, Market Eases Early Trading Risks. · Asset response: Gold under pressure, crude oil falling, risk sentiment warming, BTC following the rebound. · After the meeting: The situation reversed rapidly, conflicts escalated, and risk avoidance reignited. · Asset reaction: Gold strengthened again, crude oil surged, and BTC experienced sharp fluctuations amid a sharp drop in risk appetite. 2. This time, the timeline is similar again · Before the Rate Meeting: U.S. and Iran Release Negotiation Expectations Again. · The market's early bet on the transmission chain: reduced war risk → easing oil pressure→ easing inflation pressure→ increased Fed policy space. Asset reactions: Gold retreated, crude oil cooled, and BTC risk appetite rebounded. But the market trades expectations. The real danger is that if the midnight meeting does not send stronger dovish signals, or if the US-Iran negotiations bring new variables, the previously anticipated deal could instantly reverse. 3. The three markets trade the same logic: liquidity expectations + inflation expectations + geopolitical risk. So, don't just focus on a single BTC candlestick. 4. What you really need to check at midnight isn't whether rates will be raised, but three things: 1. Is Wash's speech more dovish or hawkish? 2. Has the market's early trading positive news been realized? 3. Will the US-Iran situation reverse again? Last time, the market prematurely speculated on peace, only to be proven wrong by reality. This time, "expect the market to end, reverse."On the 21st, he said something was going to happen this time.
Some people laugh at me, but these past couple of days, they haven't been able to smile.
At that time, it was said: this decline has long-term turning characteristics; whether it is confirmed depends on whether the rebound can break previous highs.
I personally checked it for you yesterday!
A rebound? It didn't bounce at all, kept smashing.
Before the crash, some people even helped make up stories: tariffs, geopolitical issues, quarterly report misses.
Now the fig leaf has been torn off by Old Huang himself!
Guaranteed $250 billion for OpenAI.
Taste it. For two years, Old Huang has been saying everywhere that "computing power is scarce and supply exceeds supply." And what happened?
They themselves lend money to customers to buy their own goods.
What is this? This isn't like a big shot taking care of the younger brother.
This means the shipping channels are blocked, and manufacturers have started providing financial support to distributors.
Cloud factories invest in model factories → hardware companies invest in cloud factories → chip manufacturers directly guarantee model factories.
All the money in the chain was transferred from one hand to the other.
After two years of trampling on the other, I finally had to pay out of pocket to mortgage my own goods.
In 2008, the chain of subprime loans was as long as the AI chain was winding—except the collateral was changed from houses to GPUs.
And the struggling and plunge of SMIC Huahong today clearly shows one thing: the damage is not to domestic substitution.
What they are undermining is the logical foundation for AI hardware pricing.
If the base cracks, whether it's TSMC or SMIC, the top falls off together.
The operating framework for the 21st is just following it now:
If the rebound does not break the previous high = bullish inducement.
Down more than 20% from the peak, officially entering the bear market, Marvell halved, Kioxia halved.
A collective escape at this level is a completely different matter from recovering the previous -3% drop in two days. Don't be foolish.
It's not the time to cut losses, but it's definitely not the time to buy the dip either.
and more. Look at the rebound height. If you don't give height, don't reach out.
There are two time windows at the back:
(1) End of July: No rate hikes + US-Iran easing tensions + CPI dropping a bit→ liquidity will breathe a sigh of relief.
If Nvidia's Q2 orders really explode and customers aren't as poor as they imagine, there may be a recovery in August. If you can't fix the previous high = run. This is not a buy signal, but a window to escape.
(2) Around October next year: Anthropic secretly submitted the S-1, aiming to list as early as then.
OpenAI is also in line. If Philadelphia Semiconductor Semiconductor breaks out of the path of gold at 5626→4090→4300, the rebound peaks before and after the IPO will be an opportunity to exit in batches. $QQQ $SNDK $XAU #美联储即将公布利率决议 #英伟达. Google provides huge guarantees for AI data center debt #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, causing sharp volatility in storage stocks SanDisk halved in half in one month—has the panic really ended? Guys, SanDisk has really been a miserable month this month. From its all-time high of $2,354 on June 22, it has plummeted over 53%, hitting a low of $1,027, wiping out over $200 billion in market value. Yesterday, it fell more than 17% intraday, closing down 14% at $1,096. The entire storage sector was dragged down—Micron fell nearly 9%, Western Digital dropped nearly 7%.
The direct trigger was China's DRAM leader Changxin Technology, which surged 466% on its first day of A-share listing on July 27. The market is concerned that after Chinese companies receive capital support, they will accelerate catching up with international storage giants and reshape the global competitive landscape.
Coupled with the market's reassessment of AI investment sustainability, tech giants are pouring money into AI infrastructure, increasing pressure on returns. Storage stocks had surged too aggressively earlier (SanDisk jumped from $40 to $2,354, a 58-fold increase), and the profit-taking position was so thick that a single straw could crush it.
However, don't let panic lead the conversation: SanDisk mainly focuses on NAND flash and enterprise SSDs, while Changxin specializes in DRAM, and the two are not direct competitors. Last quarter's revenue was $5.95 billion, a year-on-year surge of 251%, with a gross margin as high as 78%. Of 24 Wall Street analysts, 21 have given a "Buy" rating, with an average target price of about $2,368. The August 5th earnings report is the real do-or-die battle.
Technically, I think the room for further decline is extremely limited. SanDisk fell from 2354 to 1096, more than halved. Key support below is in the 1000-1050 range. Short-term resistance above is at 1150-1180; after a breakout, the target is 1200-1250.
Here's how to proceed next? Here are a few points for reference.
Go long: Wait for volume shrinking and stabilizing in the 1000-1050 range, then lighten and try long. Set a stop loss at 980, first target 1150, second target 1200-1250. Leverage should be kept within 3 times.
Short: If the rebound to 1150-1180 encounters resistance, you can take a light position and try shorting, with a stop loss at 1200 and a target of 1050-1000.
Such panic selling is often accompanied by violent rebounds. However, bottom-fishing and top-fishing are very risky. If you control your position well, if you don't understand, wait for the August 5th earnings report before trading.
As the old saying goes, never trade heavily in positions. Light positions and light leverage are the safest approach, especially for US derivatives like SanDisk, which are highly volatile and must be traded cautiously. I feel I can't handle even five times leverage, so I recommend three times leverage. Long-term compound interest is the real way. 🙏🙏🙏BTC 在美联储议息会议首日跌破 64,000 美元关口，ETH 跟跌破 1,900。表面上看是常规的"会前避险"，但细看链上和期权数据，这次的平静底下藏着一个危险的错位：宏观的不确定性在放大，而交易员的对冲仓位却在收缩。 关键数据速览 $BTC ：$63,400，24h -2.85%——连续两日阴线，回到区间下沿 $ETH ：$1,877，24h -3.2%——比 BTC 更弱，ETH/BTC 汇率持续走低 总市值：$2.17 万亿，日跌约 3%——山寨币跌幅更深 恐惧贪婪指数：34（恐惧），上周还有 48——一周跌了 14 点，速度不慢 一、FOMC：这届美联储，连华尔街都猜不准 今晚北京时间凌晨 2 点，Warsh 将公布利率决议。市场主流预期维持 3.50%-3.75% 不变，但 CME FedWatch 显示加息概率仍有约 30%，这是近四年来最"开放"的一次会议。HSBC 直接用了"两年来最不确定"来形容。 关键不在利率本身——几乎没人认为真会加。真正的炸弹在声明措辞和发布会。Warsh 一贯反对前瞻指引，这意味着市场可解读的信号更少、波动空间更大。六月会议上，18 位Altcoins are trying to fake a comeback with a patchwork quilt of positive signals, but what really matters is the thread count of new money pouring in.
I see a few coins flashing green: $ADA surged 5.68% in the last 24 hours, breaking out of a downtrend. Meanwhile, $XAUT quietly trades near all-time highs, and $DOGE even ticked up 0.43% despite other altcoins getting slammed. Yet, on-chain activity suggests none of these are drawing in fresh capital. Liquidity isn't spreading the love; it's being concentrated in a few spots.
If altseason is real, you'd expect coins like $RE and $LDO to be leading the pack, not hemorrhaging 6.83% and 6.35% respectively. $ZEC, a perennial favorite among traders, dropped 3.84%. I'm not calling the bottom or top, but what I do know is that value follows liquidity – not the other way around.
$SOL will continue to be the beta casino until real money starts flowing into the crypto ecosystem. When it does, you want $BTC and $ETH to be on the leading edge, not just following the noise.I'm Ci Ge. Hynix's financial report is out, bringing mixed feelings. 60.5 trillion won, a year-on-year increase of 557%, setting a new historical record. But this was below the market expectation of 64 trillion. Revenue of 79 trillion yuan also fell short of expectations. The core reason is that SK Hynix's HBM proportion is higher than its peers, and it has not fully benefited from the price increases of conventional memory chips this round.
After the earnings announcement, the stock price came under pressure, but the management's call was reassuring. First, there are no signs of a slowdown in AI investment. Second, HBM4 has already been mass-produced and shipped, with long-term supply agreements usually locked in for five years. The stock price turned from a decline to a rise after hours. On the morning of July 29, Korean stock Hynix rebounded about 4%, and Samsung rose about 6%. The differences are obvious. The previous day, US AI hardware stocks all fell sharply: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.03%, SanDisk dropped 16%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 10% from its peak, entering a technical correction. Seagate Technology bucked the trend after its financial report, with near-term hard drive capacity locked in through 2028. Record-breaking performance triggered a sell-off, with capacity rushed to be bought up for three years, existing simultaneously in the same industry chain.
The impact on BTC is twofold. In the short term, the sharp volatility in storage stocks will transmit to the crypto market. Philadelphia Semiconductor fell 6%, and BTC, as a high-beta risk asset, is very likely to be dragged down. The short logic at 65014.2 still holds. Before the short liquidation zone between 64000 and 64500 is effectively broken, a rebound is an opportunity to add to short positions. In the medium term, Hynix HBM4 mass production shipments and long-term contracts locked in for 5 years have once again confirmed the rigidity of AI computing power demand. The disagreement in the storage sector is due to valuation concerns and industry prosperity, not a loss of demand. The narrative of BTC as the underlying anchor of the hash economy will only become increasingly rigid.
Operationally, continue holding short positions at 65,014.2, with stop-loss lowered to 64,500. If the price rebounds to the 64,000 to 64,500 range, add short positions, and the overall stop loss is uniformly set at 64,800. The lower target is 62,000; if it breaks, look for 61,000. SK Hynix's financial report confirms that the fundamental AI demand has not collapsed; short-term fluctuations are reserved for those who are prepared.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp volatility $SNDK $BTC $SKHYNIX I still hold spot US stocks right now. What will happen next?
Check this news
A heads-up: This decline has the characteristics of a long-term turning point. Whether this is confirmed depends on whether the subsequent rebound can break previous highs.
Let's start with the conclusion:
When the market weakens, the worst trading option is not to immediately cut losses in a downtrend, but to wait for a rebound.
But the nature of a rebound—reversal or bullish inducement—can only be verified in one way.
First, let's explain why this decline is different from previous ones.
On July 1, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.27% in a single day, and on July 2, it dropped another 5.44%, with a cumulative decline of over 11% over two days.
The trigger was Meta's announcement to lease idle AI computing power externally, directly shaking the core narrative of "permanent scarcity of computing power."
By mid-July, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had retraced nearly 19% from its June high, just one step away from a technical bear market.
Marvell fell nearly 40% from its peak, while Kioxia was cut in half.
This decline and breadth are not ordinary pullbacks. The logic of funding has indeed changed.
Previously, after a high-level pullback of three or four points, or even seven or eight points, a rapid rebound was normal crowded trading volatility.
But with a two-day -11% drop and a leading stock halved, the time and energy needed for recovery are completely different.
So, after a sharp drop, what conditions can one expect to be bullish again?
There is only one standard:
The rebound must effectively break through previous highs. Before breaking the previous high, all rebounds are treated by default as long as lure is used.
Does Fei Ban still have a chance?
The answer is not absolute yes or no. Afterwards, it will hold and break through previous highs and continue dancing;
If you can't reach it, now is the peak. Do not enter before a breakout is confirmed. That spot is a trap.
Now, let's talk about the timing of the exit.
Use gold trends as a reference—note, this is a pattern reference, not a prediction.
At the end of January, COMEX hit a historic high of $5,626, then dropped to $4,090, a pullback of over 20% from the high. After the US-Iran ceasefire in June, gold rebounded above $4,300. This rebound formed a high point called the escape top.
But there is a key distinction that must be made clear:
The gold round was based on interest rate logic—oil prices → inflation→ rate hike expectations→ real interest rates rising.
This round of the Philadelphia Semiconductor is a mix of chip and valuation logic—AI CAPEX narrative shakes + funds withdraw from crowded trading.
The two drive mechanisms are completely different. A candlestick image does not necessarily mean the subsequent path will be copied.
Therefore, gold's price movements are only used as a reference for patterns and do not serve a predictive function.
If the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovers and rebounds, where is the key window to watch?
There is a key point worth noting: Anthropic secretly filed its S-1 filing in June this year, with underwriters scheduling investor meetings and a possible listing as early as October 2026.
OpenAI also secretly submitted an IPO application, aiming for a valuation of one trillion dollars, but Wall Street generally believes it will be postponed to the first half of 2027.
If we follow the path of gold, Anthropic's October IPO will be a window to watch.
If a rebound peak occurs at that time, it should be regarded as a phased exit opportunity. But pay attention to two points:
First, whether an IPO can serve as a top escape is itself a probability event, depending on the market environment, valuation acceptance, and whether secondary funds are willing to take over. The correlation between the two events is far less high.
Second, if the rebound fails to break previous highs, there is a high probability of a second bottoming out.
How much is the magnitude? Don't preset numbers. Q3/Q4 CAPEX guidance, AI downstream demand verification, and the fundamentals of individual stocks in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index—these are the variables that determine the depth of the second bottom.
And there's one thing that's different from gold:
The fundamentals of AI have not collapsed. Anthropic's ARR is expected to soar from 9 billion at the end of 2025 to 47 billion by May 2026, with Q2 expected to be profitable for the first quarter.
As long as downstream AI demand remains, Feizhou Semiconductor Index will have a fundamental anchor. Declines are acceptable, but don't generalize linearly into a crash.
Looking at it now, there are only two scenarios:
Scenario 1: The Feizhou Semiconductor Index rebounds to break previous highs. Keep playing, keep dancing, the bubble will last longer.
Buy the moment of confirmation of the breakout—note, it may be pushed down by a double top. All other points are inviting bullish positions.
Scenario 2: The rebound can't reach previous highs, so it follows the path of gold.
The rebound peaks around Anthropic's IPO are the phased exit windows with the smallest relative losses.
One more thing: Nasdaq and Philadelphia are doing splits.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell nearly 19%, while the Dow hit a new high of 52,900 points over the same period. Capital is flowing from the chip sector to finance and retail.
Big Tech has visible cash flow to support it, while the chip hardware chain is cutting down valuations. QQQ/Nasdaq may continue to hold out as AI giants go public in the aftermath, but Philadelphia Semiconductor and chip equipment are another story.
Breaking previous highs = Continue holding.
Rebound without previous highs = phased out.
The two forks are left to the market to choose, and you just need to prepare a response plan. $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX #银行业联名施压, the terms of CLARITY stablecoin may be regenerated
Stablecoin interest is becoming the biggest stumbling block in the final stages of the CLARITY Act.
Executives from 134 banking associations jointly sent a letter to the Senate, demanding that Section 10404 be amended before the bill is passed to strengthen restrictions on paying stablecoin interest and yield. They advocate expanding restrictions to prevent companies from providing "quasi-interest" economic benefits to stablecoin holders through incentives and incentives, warning that if stablecoins attract deposits with interest-like incentives, it could weaken the local loan funding base of hundreds of billions of dollars.
The battle over the CLARITY Act has shifted from "whether the crypto industry can obtain regulatory clarity" to a battle over "who has the right to pay interest, banks or stablecoins."
(1) What are banks afraid of?
The appeal of interest-bearing stablecoins lies in their deposit interest rates below 2%, while demand deposits may yield over 4-5%. Banks are concerned about deposits flowing from accounts to stablecoin wallets. This is a matter of life and death for banks—without deposits, there are no loans, no banks.
The core controversy of Section 10404 of the CLARITY Act is whether stablecoin issuance is allowed to provide yield to holders. Banks hope to expand the scope of restrictions and block all "rewards, incentives, and interest-related activities." But a stablecoin issuer that banks are concerned about has directly stated: offering yields is not to rob bank deposits, but to develop payment networks. If deposit outflows really happen, it would be due to users' choices—this statement itself implies that stablecoins are indeed competitive.
(2) Impact on the passage of the bill
SEC Chairman Atkins expressed optimism about Congress's passage of CLARITY, and said the SEC is providing technical assistance. The Senate plans to push for a procedural vote before the August recess, but Majority Leader Thune had already indicated that passage before the recess was unlikely. The joint letter from the banking sector indicates that the existing text has not yet received sufficient political support for stablecoin terms.
If the amendment is included, the profitability of stablecoin issuers will be significantly weakened, and the bill's value to the crypto industry will be diminished. If the banks' joint letter is ignored, the bill may need to compete for an additional 2-3 votes in the Senate, making it even harder to gather already tight cross-party votes.
(3) What does it mean for the crypto market?
Stablecoins are risk-free interest rate instruments, allowing depositors to convert deposits into stablecoins at any time and earn returns. Limiting stablecoin yields will, to some extent, slow the pace of capital inflows into the crypto market. The amendment could weaken the stablecoin's user appeal, thereby affecting on-chain liquidity.
But for the bill itself, the probability of passing it in the short term is decreasing, though not zero. The joint letter from the banking sector means the differences are still widening, and the time window is running out. In the final two weeks before the August recess, every wording adjustment in the CLARITY Act will affect market expectations. $BTC $ETH U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, so why did BTC drop instead of rise?
On Tuesday, U.S. Treasury yields saw a significant decline, with the 10-year yield dropping to around 4.60% and the 2-year yield falling to about 4.27%. The direct trigger was oil prices falling below $80—ongoing U.S.-Iran ceasefire developments further lowered inflation expectations, and market bets on Fed rate hikes loosened accordingly. According to traditional logic, this should have been positive for risk assets, but last night both BTC and the Nasdaq declined.
The core reason is that the market’s trading focus is shifting: from trading short-term geopolitical variables to trading the structural variable of interest rates. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike has climbed to 56.4%. Coupled with two rate hike hints from Fed’s Waller, capital is beginning to reprice. Although 76 economists still expect the Fed to hold steady, the Dallas and Cleveland Fed presidents have explicitly called for hikes, and there are even institutional bets on a "surprise rate hike," causing unprecedented market divergence.
While the drop in Treasury yields is certainly a positive signal, before the FOMC decision, large funds generally prefer to wait and see. The interest rate decision is the real test for this market cycle; it’s unwise to rush ahead before the shoe drops.
If you don’t understand, just wait. The structure will provide the answer.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK