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I am Cige. Hynix's earnings report is out, with mixed results. 60.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%, setting a new record. But it is below the market expectation of 64 trillion. Revenue of 79 trillion also fell short of expectations. The core reason is that Hynix's HBM proportion is higher than peers, which instead failed to fully capture the price hike benefits of this round of conventional memory chips.
After the earnings release, the stock price came under pressure, but the management's conference call provided two reassurances. First, no signs of AI investment slowdown were seen. Second, HBM4 has entered mass production and shipment, with long-term supply agreements typically locked in for 5 years. The stock price reversed from a decline to a rise after hours; on the morning of July 29, Hynix shares in Korea rebounded about 4%, Samsung rose about 6%. The divergence is obvious. The previous day, US AI hardware stocks collectively plunged, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.03%, SanDisk dropped 16%, and the Nasdaq 100 retreated 10% from its high, entering a technical correction. Seagate Technology rose against the trend after its earnings report, with near-term hard drive capacity locked until 2028. Record earnings triggered sell-offs, while capacity was pre-purchased three years ahead, coexisting in the same industry chain.
The impact on BTC is twofold. In the short term, the sharp volatility in memory stocks will transmit to the crypto market; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6%, and BTC, as a high-beta risk asset, will likely be dragged down. The short position logic at 65014.2 still holds; until the short liquidation zone between 64000 and 64500 is effectively broken, any rebound is an opportunity to add to shorts. In the medium term, Hynix's HBM4 mass production and 5-year locked supply agreements reconfirm the rigid demand for AI computing power. The divergence in the memory sector is a valuation concern versus industry prosperity difference, not a disappearance of demand. BTC's narrative as the underlying anchor of computing power economics will only strengthen.
Operationally, continue holding the 65014.2 short position, with stop loss lowered to 64500. If the price rebounds to the 64000-64500 range, add to the short position, with an overall stop loss unified at 64800. The downside target is 62000; if broken, look to 61000. Hynix's earnings validate that the AI demand base has not collapsed; short-term volatility is left for those prepared.
Cige has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 $SNDK $BTC $SKHYNIX I still hold spot US stocks right now. What will happen next?
Check this news
A heads-up: This decline has the characteristics of a long-term turning point. Whether this is confirmed depends on whether the subsequent rebound can break previous highs.
Let's start with the conclusion:
When the market weakens, the worst trading option is not to immediately cut losses in a downtrend, but to wait for a rebound.
But the nature of a rebound—reversal or bullish inducement—can only be verified in one way.
First, let's explain why this decline is different from previous ones.
On July 1, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.27% in a single day, and on July 2, it dropped another 5.44%, with a cumulative decline of over 11% over two days.
The trigger was Meta's announcement to lease idle AI computing power externally, directly shaking the core narrative of "permanent scarcity of computing power."
By mid-July, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had retraced nearly 19% from its June high, just one step away from a technical bear market.
Marvell fell nearly 40% from its peak, while Kioxia was cut in half.
This decline and breadth are not ordinary pullbacks. The logic of funding has indeed changed.
Previously, after a high-level pullback of three or four points, or even seven or eight points, a rapid rebound was normal crowded trading volatility.
But with a two-day -11% drop and a leading stock halved, the time and energy needed for recovery are completely different.
So, after a sharp drop, what conditions can one expect to be bullish again?
There is only one standard:
The rebound must effectively break through previous highs. Before breaking the previous high, all rebounds are treated by default as long as lure is used.
Does Fei Ban still have a chance?
The answer is not absolute yes or no. Afterwards, it will hold and break through previous highs and continue dancing;
If you can't reach it, now is the peak. Do not enter before a breakout is confirmed. That spot is a trap.
Now, let's talk about the timing of the exit.
Use gold trends as a reference—note, this is a pattern reference, not a prediction.
At the end of January, COMEX hit a historic high of $5,626, then dropped to $4,090, a pullback of over 20% from the high. After the US-Iran ceasefire in June, gold rebounded above $4,300. This rebound formed a high point called the escape top.
But there is a key distinction that must be made clear:
The gold round was based on interest rate logic—oil prices → inflation→ rate hike expectations→ real interest rates rising.
This round of the Philadelphia Semiconductor is a mix of chip and valuation logic—AI CAPEX narrative shakes + funds withdraw from crowded trading.
The two drive mechanisms are completely different. A candlestick image does not necessarily mean the subsequent path will be copied.
Therefore, gold's price movements are only used as a reference for patterns and do not serve a predictive function.
If the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovers and rebounds, where is the key window to watch?
There is a key point worth noting: Anthropic secretly filed its S-1 filing in June this year, with underwriters scheduling investor meetings and a possible listing as early as October 2026.
OpenAI also secretly submitted an IPO application, aiming for a valuation of one trillion dollars, but Wall Street generally believes it will be postponed to the first half of 2027.
If we follow the path of gold, Anthropic's October IPO will be a window to watch.
If a rebound peak occurs at that time, it should be regarded as a phased exit opportunity. But pay attention to two points:
First, whether an IPO can serve as a top escape is itself a probability event, depending on the market environment, valuation acceptance, and whether secondary funds are willing to take over. The correlation between the two events is far less high.
Second, if the rebound fails to break previous highs, there is a high probability of a second bottoming out.
How much is the magnitude? Don't preset numbers. Q3/Q4 CAPEX guidance, AI downstream demand verification, and the fundamentals of individual stocks in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index—these are the variables that determine the depth of the second bottom.
And there's one thing that's different from gold:
The fundamentals of AI have not collapsed. Anthropic's ARR is expected to soar from 9 billion at the end of 2025 to 47 billion by May 2026, with Q2 expected to be profitable for the first quarter.
As long as downstream AI demand remains, Feizhou Semiconductor Index will have a fundamental anchor. Declines are acceptable, but don't generalize linearly into a crash.
Looking at it now, there are only two scenarios:
Scenario 1: The Feizhou Semiconductor Index rebounds to break previous highs. Keep playing, keep dancing, the bubble will last longer.
Buy the moment of confirmation of the breakout—note, it may be pushed down by a double top. All other points are inviting bullish positions.
Scenario 2: The rebound can't reach previous highs, so it follows the path of gold.
The rebound peaks around Anthropic's IPO are the phased exit windows with the smallest relative losses.
One more thing: Nasdaq and Philadelphia are doing splits.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell nearly 19%, while the Dow hit a new high of 52,900 points over the same period. Capital is flowing from the chip sector to finance and retail.
Big Tech has visible cash flow to support it, while the chip hardware chain is cutting down valuations. QQQ/Nasdaq may continue to hold out as AI giants go public in the aftermath, but Philadelphia Semiconductor and chip equipment are another story.
Breaking previous highs = Continue holding.
Rebound without previous highs = phased out.
The two forks are left to the market to choose, and you just need to prepare a response plan. $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX #银行业联名施压, the terms of CLARITY stablecoin may be regenerated
Stablecoin interest is becoming the biggest stumbling block in the final stages of the CLARITY Act.
Executives from 134 banking associations jointly sent a letter to the Senate, demanding that Section 10404 be amended before the bill is passed to strengthen restrictions on paying stablecoin interest and yield. They advocate expanding restrictions to prevent companies from providing "quasi-interest" economic benefits to stablecoin holders through incentives and incentives, warning that if stablecoins attract deposits with interest-like incentives, it could weaken the local loan funding base of hundreds of billions of dollars.
The battle over the CLARITY Act has shifted from "whether the crypto industry can obtain regulatory clarity" to a battle over "who has the right to pay interest, banks or stablecoins."
(1) What are banks afraid of?
The appeal of interest-bearing stablecoins lies in their deposit interest rates below 2%, while demand deposits may yield over 4-5%. Banks are concerned about deposits flowing from accounts to stablecoin wallets. This is a matter of life and death for banks—without deposits, there are no loans, no banks.
The core controversy of Section 10404 of the CLARITY Act is whether stablecoin issuance is allowed to provide yield to holders. Banks hope to expand the scope of restrictions and block all "rewards, incentives, and interest-related activities." But a stablecoin issuer that banks are concerned about has directly stated: offering yields is not to rob bank deposits, but to develop payment networks. If deposit outflows really happen, it would be due to users' choices—this statement itself implies that stablecoins are indeed competitive.
(2) Impact on the passage of the bill
SEC Chairman Atkins expressed optimism about Congress's passage of CLARITY, and said the SEC is providing technical assistance. The Senate plans to push for a procedural vote before the August recess, but Majority Leader Thune had already indicated that passage before the recess was unlikely. The joint letter from the banking sector indicates that the existing text has not yet received sufficient political support for stablecoin terms.
If the amendment is included, the profitability of stablecoin issuers will be significantly weakened, and the bill's value to the crypto industry will be diminished. If the banks' joint letter is ignored, the bill may need to compete for an additional 2-3 votes in the Senate, making it even harder to gather already tight cross-party votes.
(3) What does it mean for the crypto market?
Stablecoins are risk-free interest rate instruments, allowing depositors to convert deposits into stablecoins at any time and earn returns. Limiting stablecoin yields will, to some extent, slow the pace of capital inflows into the crypto market. The amendment could weaken the stablecoin's user appeal, thereby affecting on-chain liquidity.
But for the bill itself, the probability of passing it in the short term is decreasing, though not zero. The joint letter from the banking sector means the differences are still widening, and the time window is running out. In the final two weeks before the August recess, every wording adjustment in the CLARITY Act will affect market expectations. $BTC $ETH U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, so why did BTC drop instead of rise?
On Tuesday, U.S. Treasury yields saw a significant decline, with the 10-year yield dropping to around 4.60% and the 2-year yield falling to about 4.27%. The direct trigger was oil prices falling below $80—ongoing U.S.-Iran ceasefire developments further lowered inflation expectations, and market bets on Fed rate hikes loosened accordingly. According to traditional logic, this should have been positive for risk assets, but last night both BTC and the Nasdaq declined.
The core reason is that the market’s trading focus is shifting: from trading short-term geopolitical variables to trading the structural variable of interest rates. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike has climbed to 56.4%. Coupled with two rate hike hints from Fed’s Waller, capital is beginning to reprice. Although 76 economists still expect the Fed to hold steady, the Dallas and Cleveland Fed presidents have explicitly called for hikes, and there are even institutional bets on a "surprise rate hike," causing unprecedented market divergence.
While the drop in Treasury yields is certainly a positive signal, before the FOMC decision, large funds generally prefer to wait and see. The interest rate decision is the real test for this market cycle; it’s unwise to rush ahead before the shoe drops.
If you don’t understand, just wait. The structure will provide the answer.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Look closely, my right hand holds a Visa credit card, while my left hand secretly switches under the table into a smart contract code—the audience only watches the 2,600 laid-off doubles, but no one notices the dealer has already swapped their hole cards for on-chain dice for clearing. This is the standard large-scale turnover: one hand is layoffs to cut costs, the other is a new casino move. You think he's contracting, but in reality, he's reshuffling.
Traditional payments are just an outdated poker trick: relying on fee differences to cash in on commissions, and piling up on card issuance volume. But the game has changed now. Retail investors are still watching monthly statements, while the market makers have already launched the VSP stablecoin platform—the public beta on July 17, which directly converts chips on the gambling table into digital tokens. A 7% layoff isn't a loss, but freeing up hands to practice new techniques: if you want to keep up, you have to understand that they lowered labor costs to free up space for on-chain clearing infrastructure.
The entire industry is putting on a sleight of hand in hand. You see the sickle of layoffs fall and think the company is hopeless; But look at the other hand—he's using stablecoins to leverage the trump card of global cross-border clearing. It's like a magician breaking a watch—the audience thinks he's ruined the prop, but in reality, he's putting together a faster watch. Visa's move and the depth of linkage between the US stock token $XSOXL essentially represent a period of quantitative forgiveness—capital is waiting for the next reshuffling point, with all funds watching this continuous trick of "watching the skyscraper, watching it lay off, watching it go on-chain."
Don't be fooled by that 7% headcount figure. The real visual error is hidden beneath the guise of operational efficiency: Is the acceleration of competition in the payment industry driven by optimized manpower? The mistake lies in replacing the underlying ledger from the database to blockchain. Visa, this long-established player, is now playing a strategic move—openly repairing the boardwalk and laying off staff, while secretly operating on the chain. Retail investors are still struggling with the number of unemployed people, while market makers are already testing the side magic traps of stablecoins.
You keep an eye on your wallet, and he keeps an eye on your transfer fees. The secret to magic is never where you look—when you watch those 2,600 stunt doubles exit, Visa has already turned the magic pockets upside down. The next trick is the audience paying.
#影响周期 · Monthly #传统金融 · Payment Industry #Visa · 2,600 Layoffs · 7%
#StrategyPlaybook So you understand: $HYPE = ~55% of 7‑day buybacks
1️⃣ @HyperliquidX | Perp DEX / L1
7D Buybacks $6.59M;
7D value change -20.2%;
7D price change -2.4%.
2️⃣ @Pumpfun | Memecoin Launchpad
7D buybacks $2.45M;
7D value change -5.4%;
7D price change +11.4%.
3️⃣ @chainlink | Oracle/Infra
7D buybacks $1.18M;
7D value change +6.0%;
7D price change +2.4%.
Key insights?
• $HYPE dominates the narrative: ~55% of the combined 7D buybacks across these 13 names below (I computed the cohort’s 7D sum ≈ $12.0M), so HYPE’s -20.2% week and -36.4% month deceleration matters materially;
• if $HYPE revenue-driven buybacks keep sliding, it removes the primary demand offset in the group.When Washh took office, he flipped the table and deleted the dot plot. The forward-looking guidance was gone, and the statement was cut to 130 words—70% shorter than during the Bernanke era. Previously, the market just copied the answers; now they have to solve it themselves. Tonight at 2 a.m., the FOMC results will be out. On the surface, there are only two outcomes: increase or not. But the real things worth watching are much more complicated. CME data shows a 63.7% probability of no rate hike, a 36.3% chance of a rate hike. Two weeks ago, this figure was 13%. After oil prices broke 100, rate hike expectations jumped off the floor. Market divides are ridiculously large This is an effect deliberately created by Wash. What he wants is to make you guess the $BTC $ETH. Even more exciting is that internal battles are happening within the Federal Reserve: Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Hamack publicly call for rate hikes; New York Fed President Williams says to wait a little longer? As for Wash, he remains silent. Not a single word for you, just watching the show. Tonight, the three things to really watch are $SPCX. First, the wording of the statement—whether there are new words about upward inflation risk; and whether September is being classified as a live meeting A change in a word is ten times more important than whether or not to raise rates. Second, the press conference. Wash's impromptu move might have taken the market away. Whether he leans toward the hawks or doves depends entirely on how you perform on the spot. Third, the opposition vote. Goldman Sachs said at least one vote against, and Côte d'Internationale said Logan is almost certain to vote against. One vote is completely different from two votes. More than two opposing votes basically signals the market. Bianco Res$BTC Tonight's Fed decision suspense grows even larger! Expectations of easing inflation were overshadowed by the US-Iran geopolitical conflict. Institutions remind: Energy risks may push inflation up again, and the Federal Reserve does not rule out this direct rate hike rather than postpone it to September. Although the market currently bets on nearly 70% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged, a 30.5% rate hike expectation is enough to trigger intense volatility. The crypto market is extremely risky tonight, so avoid over-positioning or betting on specific directions! 1. Original News Compilation [BlockBeats News July 29] Investment Bank D.A. James Lagan, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Davidson, commented: 1. Since the last Fed meeting, inflation data has been moderate and employment growth has been stable; However, the recent escalation of the US-Iran military conflict may reverse the positive trend of inflation falling in June. 2. The Federal Reserve needs to reassess the persistence of inflation; If inflation expectations are established, a rate hike in July should be chosen; postponing action to September will face enormous public pressure from the midterm elections. ✅CME FedWatch latest pricing: July rate unchanged: 69.5%; July rate hike 25 basis points: 30.5% 2. Breakdown of the core logic of market trend transmission 1. Clear transmission chain → geopolitical → inflation monetary policy Conflict Middle East conflict disrupts crude oil supply, rising oil prices trigger imported inflationary pressure. If the Fed is forced back to tightening and the dollar strengthens, risk asset valuations will come under pressure, putting BTC and ETH under short-term pressure. 2. Two Decision Scenario Simulations 👉 Scenario (1): Maintain interest rates unchanged +This round of knockoff buying looks beautiful, but in reality, the market is secretly changing the script 🧐
Do you really think all coins with bullish candlesticks are worth chasing?
Many people get excited at the sight of consecutive bullish candlesticks, thinking the knockoff season has arrived. Yesterday, I watched the $BEAT market and it did look good, but when I opened the liquidity data, my heart skipped a beat. Trading volume simply couldn't support this increase, and open interest continued to decline. This is not a full recovery; it feels more like capital is playing a precise "beauty pageant game"—the capital hasn't spread out, but rather narrowed its circle.
- Funding preferences are becoming extremely polarized: liquidity is concentrated in just a few coins, like $JELLYJELLY $OPG $SLX $LAB, while the rest $BEAT $EDGE $COAI seem lively but are actually inflated.
- The real trading logic in the market has changed: it's not speculating on "all knockoffs," but rather "specific narratives + low circulation + high control." Most of the leading coins in this round are small-cap and concentrated chips, not something retail investors can easily follow.
- The bullish path is: if $BTC continues to hold at key support points and $ETH and $SOL can take turns driving liquidity, these leading coins may drive sentiment expansion, but only if funds are willing to spill out from these "star coins."
- Bearish risk is more direct: Right now, funds only absorb a few iron nails like iron stones; once they can't hold on, the inflated counterfeit will fall faster than anyone else. Moreover, open interest continues to decline, indicating that smart money is pulling and withdrawing simultaneously, which is not genuinely optimistic.
My judgment is: the market isn't lacking opportunities; it's that the opportunity is hidden in areas where "funds are quietly accumulating but haven't ramped up yet," rather than chasing coins that have already hit three bullish lines. Patience is more important than chasing gains; wait for the signal to confirm before making a move.
Disclaimer: The above represents personal observation only and does not constitute any trade advice. Please make your own judgment.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $DOGEGuys, Apple is back again.
At yesterday's close, Apple's market value was about $4.9 trillion, briefly surpassing $5 trillion during trading, officially surpassing Nvidia and reclaiming the top spot in global market cap. It has been more than a year since the last time it reached the top.
This rotation is quite interesting. AI chip stocks are falling, while consumer technology is rising. Funds are shifting from "competing on computing power" to "competing on monetization." Apple has risen 25% this year, clearly outperforming many large tech stocks.
The market is starting to recalculate its accounts. During the previous AI rally, computing power was prioritized, and whoever had more chips had the final say. Now entering the second half, investors are asking a more direct question—can these users in your hands actually be monetized? Apple has over a billion highly engaged users, and the implementation of AI features is a source of ready-made revenue. No matter how well NVIDIA chips sell, it still depends on whether cloud vendors are willing to keep pouring money in.
From the perspective of the crypto market, this rotation has two impacts.
In the short term, Apple's return to the top spot indicates that funds are moving toward "certainty." Consumer technology has stable cash flow and a user base, making it more cyclical than pure AI hardware. If this risk-averse sentiment persists, it would not be good news for highly volatile assets like the crypto market.
But in the long run, there's a deeper logic. If Apple really succeeds in AI payments, AI finance, and AI identity verification, its intersections with the crypto world will increase. Samsung has already stuffed stablecoins into its phone wallets, and if Apple follows suit, it would be a whole different scale.
Apple's rise to the top is the market speaking—the story is over, time to look at the financial reports.
Apple's surpassing Nvidia has little direct impact on the market in the short term. But it reflects a shift in market style—from a high-valuation, pure AI narrative to consumer technology supported by cash flow. If this style continues, it will not be a friendly macro environment for an asset class like crypto, which has not yet generated large-scale cash flow.
Overall, there won't be a major short-term impact; just operate as you wish.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #苹果公司市值重回全球首位, surpassing Nvidia Preview of the Federal Reserve's July FOMC Meeting
Tomorrow night, the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting is about to take place, which will decide whether the currently turbulent global tech stocks will continue to pull back or see a turnaround. The market is highly divided on this meeting, unprecedentedly so.
According to the latest interest rate forecasts, surprisingly, one-third (33%) of investors believe the Fed will raise rates, while the other two-thirds believe it will not.
Why do some investors firmly support a rate hike in July?
Since the June meeting, the new Fed Chair, Waller, has conveyed a hawkish image to the market and has refused to provide any forward guidance, hoping to give the market an unpredictable impression. If the Fed chooses to hike rates in July, wouldn't that perfectly fit this unpredictable image?
Moreover, according to the Fed's June dot plot, most members support one rate hike in 2026. Since a hike is inevitable, it's better to hike sooner rather than later, so some investors think a July hike is more reasonable than September.
But my judgment is: the Fed will most likely hold steady this time, for three reasons.
First, economic data and market conditions do not support a rate hike.
The Fed's two main monetary policy goals—employment and inflation—have both improved since the June meeting: nonfarm payrolls and CPI were both below expectations, and CPI even recorded its first month-over-month decline in years, signaling a peak. For the Fed, rather than rushing to hike, it's better to wait for inflation to cool down gradually before deciding the rate path.
More importantly, since July began, U.S. tech stocks have sharply pulled back, causing widespread anxiety. Hiking rates now could be the last straw that breaks the camel's back. The Fed also has the responsibility to maintain financial system stability, and both economic data and stock market volatility do not support a rate hike.
Second, the composition of voting members does not support a hike.
The last June dot plot showed 9 out of 19 members supported a hike, but among actual voting members, doves hold 8 votes and hawks only 4. To hike now, at least 2-3 votes would need to be swayed from the doves, which is nearly impossible. Unless Waller himself leads the hawkish push and convinces Powell to shift from dove to hawk, this condition is too difficult.
Third, Waller's true stance is dovish, not hawkish.
His statements at congressional hearings and the June meeting were more of a disguise to establish a hawkish image as a new official. The Fed communications agency once pointed out that Waller was appointed by the most rate-cut eager president in history (Trump); how could he become a true hawk in such a short time? This is worth pondering.
Therefore, the focus of this July FOMC meeting is not really on whether to hike or hold steady, but on whether the Fed will reveal key information about a possible September hike.
This depends on how many dissenting votes there are in this rate decision and the information Waller provides after the meeting about internal discussions—this is likely to be one of the most fiercely debated meetings in Fed history. Waller said at congressional hearings: there are differing opinions within the Fed, but we allow full communication, like a family that can argue internally with warmth but intensity.
Fed communications analyst Nick sharply noted: this meeting will likely see a very intense internal debate led by Waller.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks. Friends, today let's talk about the coin KORU. On Tuesday night, it crashed 22.41%, quoted at $11.77. Technically, it's already a standard bearish alignment, with MACD consistently negative, and short-term selling pressure hasn't fully absorbed. But unlike SanDisk and SK Hynix, KORU is not an AI project at all. It is a leveraged ETF token for triple-going the Korean stock market (KOSPI) — KOSPI rises 1%, KORU rises 3%, and with contract leverage, it theoretically can be amplified to 150 times. In other words, you're not buying coins, but betting on the rise and fall of the Korean market as a derivative. Yesterday, the Korean market plunged over 10%, with Samsung and SK Hynix both plunging, and KORU naturally crashed as well. Moreover, Huobi delisted the KORU contract on July 14, and ApeX Omni suspended this trading pair. Liquidity is getting worse, and even a little selling can create a deep pit. Don't treat it like a value coin for bottom-fishing. This thing is basically a high-leverage tool—if you go in the right direction, you get rich; if you go in the wrong direction, you'll lose everything. If you have heart problems, it's best to stay away and watch the show! The above analysis and personal views are for reference only! $KORU $SKHY $SNDK #美联储即将公布利率决议 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, deposit stocks are experiencing sharp volatility #交易所定价异常致海力士永续暴跌 #停火48小时告吹，美伊边打边谈
The US and Iran are fighting while negotiating, the 48-hour ceasefire has collapsed, and oil prices have rebounded! What signals is the market sensing?
Hello everyone, I am Old K from the crypto circle.
This morning, a piece of news went viral: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched ballistic missiles from its homeland attempting a surprise attack on US forces stationed in the Middle East; the US side claims all were intercepted. Subsequently, US forces and Saudi Arabia conducted precise strikes on targets commanded by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard inside Iraq — the informal ceasefire lasted only 48 hours before breaking down.
WTI oil prices responded with a rebound, CL rose 5.25%, BZ rose 4.72%.
Interestingly, diplomatic channels have not been cut off.
Oman proposed a joint control plan for the Strait of Hormuz with "each controlling 50%"; Iran demands full control of the maritime passage and has not yet accepted; the US confirmed the plan does not involve transit fees. Meanwhile, the US and Iran are close to restoring the previous 60-day memorandum of understanding, with Washington's approval pending.
What is the market trading on?
1. Short term: Military escalation → oil price rebound, supply-side risk premium returns;
2. Medium term: Diplomacy is still progressing, ceasefire is not completely hopeless;
3. Core variable: Control of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for 30% of global seaborne oil, whoever controls it holds pricing power.
Implications for risk assets:
· Crude oil will experience increased short-term volatility, with geopolitical premiums and demand concerns tugging back and forth;
· If diplomatic breakthroughs occur, oil prices may quickly fall again, benefiting inflation cooling expectations;
· If military escalation continues, risk-off sentiment will suppress US stocks, crypto, and other risk assets, and even the "inverse correlation" with rising oil prices may fail.
My view:
Currently, it looks more like an "extreme pressure" scenario of fighting while negotiating, with both sides accumulating chips for talks. Whether the ceasefire can be finalized remains the key variable for oil prices and risk assets this week.
In terms of operations, favor a cautious bullish stance with limited moves in the short term, paying attention to the progress of the Hormuz proposal and US approval developments. Before 2 AM tonight, you must prepare three positions — a 30% chance of a rate hike + consumer confidence at 90.8, this "guessing game" has no standard answer
At 2 AM tonight, which side are you betting on?
Rate hike? Or no hike?
If you’ve already decided your answer — you might be making a fatal mistake.
First, look at the facts.
At 2 AM Beijing time on July 30, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Chairman Waller will hold a press conference afterward.
This is the most difficult Fed meeting to predict in recent years.
The latest CME "FedWatch" data shows: a 69.5% probability of keeping rates unchanged, and a 30.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
Wait, 30% doesn’t seem high?
Then look at this —
A week ago, the rate hike probability was only 13%. It has tripled within a week.
Citibank bluntly stated this is the "most divided moment since September 2024."
Even more divided: a Bloomberg survey of 76 economists shows all expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged.
The market is betting on a hike, economists are betting on no change.
Two groups face each other, neither convincing the other.
Why such a big divide?
Three things have cornered the Fed.
First, the 30.5% chance of a rate hike cannot be ignored.
This is not a typical meeting figure. Historically, such volatile expectations days before a Fed meeting are extremely rare. Bank of America points out that since 1994, the Fed has never hiked when the market probability was below 60% — "a July hike would be unprecedented."
But note — "unprecedented" does not mean "impossible."
Second, consumer confidence dropped to 90.8, the economy is signaling distress.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell from 92.2 in June to 90.8 in July, below the expected 92.0. The present situation index hit its lowest since 2021. High gasoline and food prices are forcing Americans to tighten their belts.
This data says: a rate hike could push the economy straight into the mud.
Third, oil prices broke $100, inflation is knocking.
Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on July 24. Since the June Fed meeting, oil prices have risen 25%. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.19%, just one step from the highest level since 2007.
The bond market is telling everyone with real money: inflation might be coming back.
On one side, people can’t bear it; on the other, inflation can’t be suppressed.
The Fed is caught in the middle; any choice is wrong.
More trouble — Waller has turned off "spoilers."
On July 1 this year, Fed Chair Waller announced no more forward guidance on rates. Previously, the Fed would tell the market in advance "when we plan to hike," now Waller says: no more. Each meeting will be decided on the spot based on data.
Bianco Research’s president said it clearly: "No forward guidance means we will frequently see 20%, 30%, 40% probability distributions."
The Fed has gone from a "trailer" to a "blind box."
At tonight’s press conference, every word from Waller will be dissected. But he likely won’t give any clear path guidance — because he promised not to.
So how to position tonight?
Don’t guess direction, prepare three positions.
Scenario 1: Rate hike (probability ~30%)
Short-term negative — dollar up, tech stocks down, Bitcoin down, gold down.
But note the twist: if Waller hints at "this is the last hike" during the press conference, the drop could quickly reverse.
Scenario 2: Hold steady + dovish tilt (probability ~28%)
Risk assets rally wildly.
But watch the trap: "buy the rumor, sell the fact" — if the market has priced in dovishness, the news could mark a high point.
Scenario 3: Hold steady + hawkish tilt (probability ~50%)
This is JPMorgan’s baseline forecast.
Rates unchanged, but at least two hawkish dissenters — Harker and Logan. The market will first be dovish then hawkish, a V-shaped move is very likely.
If the statement adds wording on "upside inflation risks" — the September hike window will open wide.
Three principles for position allocation — the iron rules to survive tonight:
First, reduce leverage, no matter long or short.
Hedge funds’ US equity exposure has hit a five-year high. High leverage + concentrated positions = indiscriminate selling once a negative catalyst appears.
This point is prone to whipsaws. Even if you guess direction right, you might get swept out first.
Second, buy volatility with options.
Straddle strategies (buying calls and puts simultaneously) are relatively safe choices.
Third, don’t bet on a single direction.
Keep cash. Wait for signals in the latter half of the press conference.
Finally, the key timeline —
2 AM: Statement release → market’s first reaction
2:30 AM: Waller’s press conference begins
Later in the press conference: Q&A with Waller — this is the real direction
Early market moves may be traps to lure bulls or bears.
Don’t be fooled by the first 15 minutes.
After tonight, whether rate hike or not, half the people will cry.
Make sure you’re not the one crying.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#美联储即将公布利率决议 Someone just pulled nearly $589 million worth of Bitcoin off Binance... and the timing has everyone paying attention.
Yesterday, 9,030 BTC left Binance—the largest single-day outflow in five months.
That's not the kind of move retail investors usually make.
When that much Bitcoin leaves an exchange, it often signals that large holders are moving coins into self-custody rather than leaving them available to sell.
But the outflow isn't the only thing worth watching.
Just a few weeks ago, Bitcoin's 30-day momentum was sitting around -21%. Since then, it has steadily recovered, climbed back toward zero, and has now started to turn positive.
We've seen this pattern before.
In October 2025, January 2026, and April 2026, momentum recovered from deeply negative territory, crossed above zero, and was followed by strong rallies.
Now the same setup is appearing again.
A major exchange just saw its biggest BTC withdrawal in months while momentum is trying to reclaim positive territory.
Does that guarantee another rally?
Not at all.
Momentum has been hovering around the zero line for weeks, and the market still hasn't made a decisive move.
But history suggests this is a combination worth paying attention to.
When large amounts of Bitcoin leave exchanges while momentum begins to recover, the market often takes notice.
Whether this becomes the next breakout—or another false start—is the question every Bitcoin investor is waiting to have answered.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Binance #OnChain #Crypto #Trading #MarketAnalysis
#DailyOrbit Multiple factors intertwine, Wash is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged this week, pausing the pace of rate hikes
With this week's FOMC meeting approaching, market attention is fully focused on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wash's policy decisions. According to CNBC's compilation of various market observers' predictions, Wash is highly likely to maintain the current interest rate level this week, postponing the start of a new rate hike cycle. Behind the direction of interest rates is not only the battle between inflation and economic data but also the Fed's internal reform plans and external political pressures, which together form the constraints on Wash's current decision-making.
From the economic fundamentals perspective, the U.S. economy is showing signs of divergence. Former bank analyst Meredith Whitney pointed out that U.S. consumers are bearing the pressure of rising energy costs, credit card spending growth is gradually slowing, and economic momentum shows signs of weakening. The Fed has ample time to wait for more economic data to materialize and does not need to rush to tighten monetary policy.
The market currently harbors ongoing concerns about inflation rebounding, with rising energy prices being the main risk point. But Wash has a clear judgment on this: energy price increases are a typical supply shock and should not simply trigger monetary tightening. Meanwhile, the market's hot topic of AI industry expansion driving cost increases, in his view, short-term cost rises may not translate into long-term sustained inflation. Based on this logic, Wash prefers to remain cautious and wait for inflation trends to become clearer.
Beyond economic data, two key variables are constraining rate hikes.
First, Wash is vigorously promoting Federal Reserve system reforms. Recently, he has successively established multiple external expert working groups to reshape the Fed's policy framework, inflation assessment system, and balance sheet operation rules. Market analysts believe that if rate hikes are rushed before reforms are implemented, it would directly compress the space for subsequent policy adjustments and hinder the steady progress of the entire reform plan.
Second, unavoidable political factors. The Trump administration continues to publicly call for Fed rate cuts, which clearly opposes some market expectations for rate hikes. In this environment, Wash's choice to keep rates unchanged while continuing to release hawkish statements is a compromise to balance various demands. It neither immediately caters to calls for rate cuts nor aggressively hikes rates to escalate conflicts, thus preserving operational flexibility for future monetary policy.
For global risk assets, this rate decision is highly significant. Maintaining rates unchanged is a short-term positive expectation, but investors should not be blindly optimistic. Wash is highly likely to maintain a hawkish tone at the press conference, continuously emphasizing that inflation risks have not been fully eliminated and leaving open the possibility of future rate hikes.
The market needs to distinguish: pausing rate hikes does not equal a shift to easing policy. The overarching theme of a high interest rate environment remains unchanged, and expectations for monetary easing should not be overly inflated. Going forward, close attention should be paid to Wash's press conference wording and the Fed's latest outlook on inflation and employment, as these signals will directly affect short-term volatility directions in U.S. stocks, commodities, and crypto markets.🚨 SK Hynix Just Reported Its Best Quarter Ever—So Why Did the Stock Get Hit?
This is the strange reality of AI stocks:
Record numbers aren't always enough.
SK Hynix just delivered the strongest quarter in its history, with record revenue and operating profit powered by explosive AI demand and the continued surge in HBM memory.
And yet, investors sold the news.
Why?
Because markets don't trade on what happened.
They trade on what was expected to happen.
Wall Street was looking for even more.
Concerns are growing that high-end memory shipments could ramp up slower than expected, while pricing gains haven't been as aggressive as investors had hoped.
So despite record results, the market immediately started asking:
"Is growth finally starting to slow?"
SK Hynix's management, however, remains confident that AI-driven demand—especially for HBM—will stay incredibly strong for years to come.
Meanwhile, $SNDK has also been pulled lower as weakness spreads across the memory semiconductor sector.
But here's the important distinction:
This doesn't necessarily mean the AI memory story is broken.
It may simply mean that expectations have become so high that even a record quarter can feel like a disappointment.
That's the danger of crowded AI trades.
When everyone expects perfection, anything less can trigger a sell-off.
Long term, the AI infrastructure cycle remains one of the biggest growth engines in semiconductors. As hyperscale data centers expand and demand for DRAM, NAND, and HBM continues to rise, names like $SKHYNIX and $SNDK remain firmly on the radar.
The question isn't whether AI demand is real.
The question is whether these companies can keep growing fast enough to satisfy the market's sky-high expectations. 👀
$SKHYNIX
$SNDK
#SKHynixRecordMiss
#AppleTopsNvidia
#SKHYNIXPerpsCrash
#DailyOrbit Wall Street began to examine the AI boom through cash flow, while safety incidents pushed the boundaries of model capabilities to the policy table. The expansion rate has already exceeded the carrying capacity of existing constraints. 1| SK Hynix's profits have tripled but are still being sold off; AI investments are now facing cash flow judgment. SK Hynix's quarterly operating profit surged sharply, but still below market expectations. Revenue also fell short of expectations, and the stock price fell after hours. Impressive results have not brought more premiums; instead, disappointing expectations have become the core of trading. For storage stocks already driven by AI demand, the market is pricing in next quarter's fulfillment ability rather than last quarter's growth rate. Pressure also reached the United States. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for four consecutive days. Google previously raised its full-year capital expenditure, turning its quarterly free cash flow negative. In a recent report, Fitch listed the "AI investment revision" as a short-term credit risk. The market may not be denying AI demand, but it is beginning to ask when investments in data centers will translate into sustainable cash flow. The hype is moving from valuation narratives into the exam hall of balance sheets and return cycles. (Source: Bloomberg / CNBC / Reuters / Fitch) 2 | Iranian missile strikes US military base in Jordan, Trump pauses window under pressure. Iran's Revolutionary Guard fires multiple ballistic missiles at US military bases in Jordan. U.S. Central Command stated that all missiles were intercepted and classified the incident as a "deliberate raid." This was a ballistic missile attack following Trump's announcement last week to pause airstrikes on Iraq. The pause was originally intended to be reserved for diplomatic negotiationsDon't buy Hynix, Micron, or SanDisk at the bottom now! Even Boss Ten was bottom-fishing last night and is now stuck, with huge losses in his account! SK Hynix plunged again today but did not see a large liquidation; bottom-fishing funds with open interest increased by nearly 20%. SK Hynix fell 10.7% in 24 hours. However, there have not been any million-dollar liquidations on the platform's liquidation list, and forced liquidations above $100,000 have only appeared sporadically. The sharp drop did not trigger a new round of liquidations; SKHX's open interest rose from 385,500 contracts yesterday to 461,600 contracts currently, an increase of 19.7%; Based on the marker price for the same period, the notional value of open interest also rose from approximately $411 million to $449 million, an increase of 9.3%. Bottom-fishing funds continue to enter the market. Data shows that SKHX currently has 2,677 long accounts and 791 short accounts, with long positions accounting for 77%, but both sides nominally hold about $217 million. Based on this, the average short position is about $274,000, which is 3.4 times the long average of about $81,000. That is, there are more long accounts, but generally smaller positions; There are fewer short sellers, but the single positions are noticeably larger; The funding rate is currently +0.036% per hour. As the scale of funds grows, the direction tends to be more bearish. Whales above $5 million hold $73.37 million in short positions and $39.07 million in long positions, accounting for about 65% of short positions and net short positions of approximately $34.3 million; Conversely, in small accounts under $10,000, about 90% of positions are long. So, despite thatMissiles fired, crude oil surges!
Iran launches ballistic missiles at a US military base in Jordan
Houthi forces attack a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea
The US military conducts precise strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq
The Middle East situation escalates again
The market's most direct reaction is crude oil continuing to strengthen
In the short term, rising oil prices will push inflation expectations back up
It will also suppress expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut
This is not good news for growth stocks, especially the AI sector
But what will determine the AI market
are the upcoming earnings reports from several tech giants
Looking at SK Hynix's earnings report
Key data:
Revenue of 79.3 trillion KRW, up 257% year-on-year, a record high
Operating profit of 60.5 trillion KRW, up 557% year-on-year, a record high
Net profit of 93.9 trillion KRW, up more than 13 times year-on-year, with about 33 trillion KRW difference between operating profit and net profit mainly from Kioxia investment gains.
More noteworthy is the signal from management
AI demand remains unchanged, AI infrastructure construction continues
Long-term orders keep increasing
Capital expenditures continue to expand
Overall, I think this earnings report is quite good
So why is SK Hynix's stock still falling?
The market is no longer trading on performance but on expectations
SK Hynix has risen more than tenfold in recent years
Institutions have accumulated huge unrealized gains
When the stock price has already priced in growth for the next few years
Even record-breaking earnings
may not continue to push valuations higher
The recent pullback
looks more like profit-taking and valuation digestion
rather than a deterioration of fundamentals
Tomorrow after the US market close, Microsoft, Meta, and Qualcomm will release earnings
What truly affects the next phase of the AI sector
is not whose profits are higher
but whether these tech giants are still willing to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building AI infrastructure
If capital expenditures continue to increase
it means AI demand remains strong
If they start to contract
the market will need to reassess this round of AI rally! #停火48小时告吹，美伊边打边谈 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动
Storage sector divergence intensifies, SK Hynix's performance is impressive but falls short of expectations
SK Hynix's Q2 financial report is out, with results hitting record highs but missing market expectations.
Operating profit surged 557% year-over-year to 60.5 trillion KRW, revenue reached 79 trillion KRW, both slightly below institutional forecasts.
The core issue is that SK Hynix's HBM business has a higher proportion, and it did not fully benefit from the recent price hikes in conventional memory chips.
After the earnings release, the stock price was pressured temporarily, but management's conference call sent positive signals: AI computing power investments show no signs of slowing, HBM4 has already entered mass production and shipment, and long-term supply agreements generally lock in for 5 years. This news drove the after-hours stock price from a decline to a rise, with SK Hynix and Samsung rebounding together in the Korean market's early session.
The semiconductor memory industry chain currently shows clear differentiation:
US AI hardware stocks have collectively pulled back recently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped sharply, and SanDisk's decline was striking; on the other hand, Seagate delivered impressive results, with near-term hard drive capacity locked until 2028 and order plans extended to 2029.
On one side, record-high performance triggers profit-taking pressure; on the other, downstream memory capacity is being purchased long-term. Industry prosperity is rising while valuation competition exists simultaneously, causing the storage sector divergence to widen. Future industry chain trends require ongoing observation of two core variables: AI demand and memory chip prices.
Volatility in the semiconductor memory sector is increasing; avoid blindly chasing rallies or panicking in sell-offs. After reading SK Hynix's earnings report, the biggest impression is that the storage segment is currently extremely fragmented.
SK Hynix's Q2 profit surged 557%, setting a new historical high in performance, but because it failed to meet market expectations, the stock opened under pressure. Interestingly, its HBM business has a higher proportion, yet it missed out on the recent price hike benefits of regular storage chips.
Fortunately, the management's conference call promptly released positive news: HBM4 has successfully entered mass production, and a long-term supply agreement has been locked in for five years. After hours, the stock price reversed from a decline to a gain, and Korean stocks continued to rebound this morning.
The entire semiconductor sector is now full of contradictions. The previous night, US AI hardware stocks collectively plunged, dragging semiconductor indexes sharply down; meanwhile, Seagate Technology's earnings were strong, with hard drive capacity booked through 2028 and customer plans extending to 2029.
On one hand, investors worried about valuations have started selling; on the other, industry orders are booming and the market sentiment continues to improve. This kind of divergent market is the hardest to navigate.
The long-term industry logic remains unchanged, but short-term market sentiment is extremely sensitive. Even slightly disappointing news can easily trigger capital flight. Going forward, when positioning in the storage sector, one must not only focus on industry positives but also remain vigilant about changes in market expectations. After SK Hynix announced its earnings early this morning, the stock price continued to decline. As of the time of writing, the Hyperliquid SKHX contract, which maps to SK Hynix Korean stock, is quoted at $969.93, down about 11.0% in 24 hours.
Less than an hour after the sharp drop, the platform saw 5 new, reopened, or reversed positions each worth millions of dollars, all long positions, totaling 8,419.75 SKHX contracts, with a position value of approximately $8.167 million and a weighted entry price of $981.15.
Currently, SKHX has fallen below the overall cost line of these large whales, with all 5 long positions showing unrealized losses totaling about $95,000. The most recent liquidation price was $930.62, about 4.1% away from the current price.
Funding rates indicate rapid inflows of bottom-fishing capital. SKHX's hourly funding rate was once -0.0855% at 7 AM this morning, quickly turning positive after the earnings release, with the current real-time estimate rising to 0.0373%.
At the current rate, a $1 million long position must pay about $373 per hour to shorts. The funding rate quickly turned positive, indicating crowded long trades after the sharp drop, but the price has yet to stop falling. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 $SKHYNIX SK Hynix Delivers Record Results but Still Disappoints: What's Next for $SKHYNIX and $SNDK?
SK Hynix has reported the strongest quarter in its history, with both revenue and operating profit reaching record highs, fueled by the ongoing AI boom and surging demand for HBM memory. However, the results still fell short of Wall Street's expectations, triggering selling pressure on the stock immediately after the earnings release.
The market isn't reacting to record-breaking numbers—it is reacting to expectations. Investors are concerned that growth could moderate as shipments of high-end memory products ramp up more slowly than anticipated, while pricing gains have not been as strong as many had projected. Even so, SK Hynix's management reaffirmed that demand for AI memory, particularly HBM, is expected to remain exceptionally strong for years to come.
Meanwhile, $SNDK has also come under pressure as cautious sentiment spread across the memory semiconductor sector. The short-term weakness appears to be driven more by the market's reaction to SK Hynix's earnings than by any deterioration in industry fundamentals. This highlights how AI-related semiconductor stocks continue to be priced for extremely high expectations, making even slight earnings misses capable of triggering significant volatility.
From a long-term perspective, the AI investment cycle remains the industry's primary growth driver. As AI infrastructure and hyperscale data center expansion continue, leading DRAM, NAND, and HBM players such as $SKHYNIX, along with related companies like $SNDK, remain among the key names to watch throughout the next phase of the semiconductor growth cycle.
$SKHYNIX
$SNDK
#SKHynixRecordMiss
#AppleTopsNvidia
#SKHYNIXPerpsCrash Today's Financial Report Analysis | SK Hynix
As of 11 a.m., SK Hynix's stock price opened slightly higher but then fell nearly 9%. Q2 revenue and operating profit both fell short of expectations.
Although net profit was 93.9 trillion won, about 63 trillion won came from investment income, not from chip sales.
So when looking at financial reports, you can't just look at net profit! First, exclude one-time gains (such as investment asset gains)
Next, what deserves more attention is the profitability of its main business and the company's future direction
Don't rush to catch the throwing knife just by looking at a number!
$SKHYNIX After SK Hynix on the Korean stock market closed down 14.7% yesterday, SKHX on Hyperliquid continued to decline today. As of press time, SKHX is quoted at $973.06, down 10.7% in 24 hours. However, there have been no million-dollar liquidations on the platform yet, and forced liquidations above $100,000 are only sporadic.
The sharp drop did not trigger a new round of cascading liquidations. SKHX open interest rose from 385,500 contracts yesterday to 461,600 currently, an increase of 19.7%; based on the mark price at the same time, the nominal open interest value also rose from about $411 million to $449 million, an increase of 9.3%. Bottom-fishing capital is still continuously entering the market.
Data shows SKHX currently has 2,677 long accounts and 791 short accounts, with longs accounting for 77% of the number of accounts, but the nominal positions of both longs and shorts are about $217 million each.
By calculation, the average short position per account is about $274,000, which is 3.4 times the average long position of about $81,000. That is, there are more long accounts but generally smaller positions; fewer short accounts but significantly larger individual positions; the funding rate is currently +0.036% per hour.
With larger capital scale, the direction tends to be more bearish. Whales holding over $5 million collectively hold $73.37 million in short positions and $39.07 million in long positions, with shorts accounting for about 65%, and a net short size of about $34.3 million; conversely, among small accounts under $10,000, about 90% of positions are long.
Although about 74% of accounts are currently at a floating loss, the losses are mainly dispersed among many small long positions, while large positions are more concentrated on the short side. #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 Interest rate meeting at dawn tomorrow | Will the familiar script repeat itself?
This time, I wasn't just watching the interest rate results.
What I focus on more is a script that might be reenacted.
1. The rhythm of the previous time
- Before the Interest Rate Meeting: The US and Iran have signaled peace talks, easing market risks in early trading
- Asset performance: Gold under pressure, crude oil retreating, risk sentiment rebounding, and BTC following the rebound
- After the interest rate meeting: The situation reverses rapidly, conflicts escalate, and risk-averse sentiment returns
- Asset performance: Gold is strengthening again, crude oil is surging, and BTC is experiencing sharp volatility amid a decline in risk appetite
2. This time, the timeline feels familiar
- Before the rate meeting, the US and Iran once again released expectations for negotiations
- The market's betting path is clear:
Reduced war risk → easing oil pressure→ easing inflation expectations→ opening up room for Fed policy
- Asset performance: Gold retreated, crude oil cooled, and BTC risk appetite rebounded
The problem is, the market is always trading expectations.
The real danger lies in:
If the early morning meeting does not deliver a stronger dovish signal, or if the US-Iran negotiations derail again, the anticipated deals could be instantly backfired.
3. The three markets actually trade the same main thread
Liquidity expectations + inflation expectations + geopolitical risk premium.
So, don't just focus on a single BTC candlestick.
What matters is the linkage between major asset classes, not the rise or fall of a single product.
4. In the early hours of tomorrow, the real focus is not just on whether to raise interest rates, but on three things
1. When Wash's speech is biased toward doves or hawks,
2. Has the "positive news" of early market trading been confirmed?
3. Will the US-Iran situation reverse again?
Last time, the market prematurely speculated on peace, but reality slapped it in the face.
This time, could it be again:
Expecting the market to end and the start of a reverse harvest?
At dawn, the dawn is revealed $BTC The fear index is still fluctuating around 30, retail investors are still hesitating about whether to enter, while BlackRock and Fidelity have been buying for five consecutive days.
On July 20, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $227 million. By July 22, over five consecutive days, cumulative inflows exceeded $700 million. BlackRock IBIT raised $505 million in just one week. For the week ending July 17, spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.12 billion, the third largest weekly inflow since launch.
By the end of this week, the total BTC held by ETFs had reached 1.14 million coins.
The fear index is still around 30, and retail investors are still hesitating—institutions have been buying for five consecutive days. Buy when you're afraid, sell when you're greedy—these are phrases used by retail investors, and institutions are executed in their accounts.
(1) Why do institutions dare to buy when they are afraid?
BlackRock and Fidelity's clients are not retail investors, but pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and endowments that allocate assets quarterly. They are not looking at today's candlestick charts, but rather on asset allocation for the next three to five years. Bitcoin has fallen for three consecutive quarters, making it precisely the time window for institutions that assess annually to include their allocations.
ETFs have changed the structure of demand. Previously, the driving force of the crypto market came from miner halvings (supply side); now, institutional allocation (demand side) is driving the crypto market. When BlackRock and Fidelity customers began buying BTC quarterly, the halving story was no longer the only main theme.
(2) It's not just BTC—ETH is also being snatched up
BitMine bought another 9,946 ETH in the past week, bringing its total holdings to 5.79 million, accounting for 4.8% of the total circulating supply on the network. Since June 2025, the company has been buying ETH every week, regardless of price fluctuations. Although Strategy paused BTC purchases, its cash reserves have already piled up to $3.2 billion. One person paused, while another was still buying — different directions, the same logic: using the company's balance sheet to bet on the long-term value of crypto assets.
(3) Vanguard's turn is the real signal
Wall Street giant Vanguard, the most crypto-resistant, opened third-party crypto ETFs and mutual funds trading in December 2025. In July 2026, recruitment for digital asset leaders will begin. Companies that once said "Bitcoin does not fit the long-term investment philosophy" are now assembling their own digital asset teams. Even Vanguard has come in, indicating that the industry is shifting from "regulatory battles" to "regulatory normal."
Big money is quietly entering the market. The fear index is still at 30, retail investors are still hesitating, and ETFs have been bought for five consecutive days. By the time retail investors react, institutions may already have almost all their chips.
Talk in the comments: Do you usually follow institutional fund movements? How did you track it?
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Expectations for rate hikes are heating up rapidly.
Data changes:
• Early July: The market priced in two rate cuts this year
• July 23: The probability of two rate hikes within the year is close to confirmation
• 50bps rate hike probability: 0% → 33%
Where are the variables? Oil prices. The US-Iran conflict pushed Brent oil above $90, and inflation expectations changed overnight.
If oil prices continue to rise, the probability of rate hikes will increase. $BTC $ETH $SOL $AAVE $LINK $UNI $MSFT $MU $SNDK $MSFT $AMZN $META $GOOGLThe market is currently at a critical window for digesting a technological structural bubble. After experiencing collective volatility from SanDisk, Micron, and SK Hynix, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release their earnings reports tonight, becoming the most important short-term indicator of global risk assets. $META The market's focus has long moved beyond simple revenue and loss; the core question is: whether trillion-yuan AI continues to burn cash and see tangible returns. #财报观察员: Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will take the lead 🥭 tonight; three key players to watch. Microsoft $MSFT Core anchors: Azure cloud growth rate + Copilot commercialization progress + next year's capital expenditure guidance. Market is highly alert: continuously expanding computing power investment is rapidly depleting free cash flow. If Azure's growth falls short of expectations, combined with further increases in capital expenditure, market concerns about a longer AI investment payback cycle will deepen; Conversely, the continued high growth in cloud business will boost sentiment throughout the computing power industry chain, benefiting the storage and chip sectors. Meta META's core anchor: Resilience in advertising business, balance of metaverse and AI computing power investment. Meta relies on advertising cash flow to support AI infrastructure expansion. Two key points to watch: whether advertising revenue maintains high growth; Will management raise capital expenditures again? If investment continues to increase but advertising growth slows, valuation pressure will quickly transmit. Amazon $AMZN Core Anchors: AWS cloud growth rate, enterprise AI computing power procurement needs, free cash flow AWS is the global computing power demandDon't let the green candles fool you. The market isn't always winning right now. On the surface, crypto looks very strong, but beneath that shell, liquidity is becoming extremely selective. Money is no longer flooding into every altcoin; instead, it's rotating into a few names while the rest are still struggling.
Here are the highlights I see:
Open interest has cooled down significantly.
Trading activity remains stable, not overly active.
This shows traders are becoming more disciplined. They selectively choose specific setups instead of chasing every price surge.
Where liquidity is flowing:
JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, CHIP, MEME, EDEN, HUMA, ZKP, METIS.
Market leaders to watch:
BTC is the liquidity anchor.
ETH is favored by institutions.
SOL is the Layer 1 momentum leader.
DATA is the AI infrastructure story.
WLD is AI combined with digital identity.
HYPE is the risk sentiment gauge.
ZEC and DOGE are retail sentiment indicators.
Still struggling to attract capital:
BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, RAVE, SPACE, SOPH, IP, AVNT, ZAMA, OFC, PIEVERSE, VIRTUAL, ACU, H, MEGA.
The biggest advantage is not chasing coins that have already risen, but recognizing where liquidity is quietly building and avoiding where it is silently withdrawing.
In this market, patience beats FOMO. Follow the flow, wait for confirmation, and let discipline guide every trade. 半导体存储这一年赚得飞起
币圈却一路挨打。
人家涨三四倍的时候我们没份，
人家一崩我们马上跟着哭。
今天韩国芯片储存 大跌，币圈继续躺枪。
好消息轮不到，坏消息一个少不了。
生活已经够苦了，币圈还在加戏……AI存储龙头从2350历史高点断崖式暴跌，今天又砸10%，直接干到1150——但营收同比暴增翻倍，毛利率飙到70%，签了420亿美金的锁定订单。这波到底是“AI泡沫破裂”还是“黄金坑里的带血筹码”？
一边是：
营收同比翻倍，数据中心暴增200%+
毛利率70%，自由现金流强劲，零债务
420亿+锁定订单，业绩能见度极高
RSI超卖，历史概率反弹
FOMC+财报近在眼前，催化剂密集
一边是：
全球芯片股集体抛售，情绪极差
技术面破位，趋势向下
AI capex可持续性质疑
内存行业“繁荣-萧条”周期魔咒
150的SNDK，是带血的筹码还是无底洞？
答案不在K线里，在8月5日的财报里。
1150的SNDK，你敢接吗？
明天FOMC，你赌涨还是赌跌？ Brothers, just yesterday, Morgan Stanley Solana Trust (MSOL) was officially listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The SOL spot ETF camp welcomed its ninth member—but the first-day data was somewhat "cold." Zero net inflow, $19.03 million in transaction volume, $1 million in net asset value. For a product backed by a top financial institution like Morgan Stanley, this opening was indeed not very exciting. But on closer inspection, things are not that simple. A management fee rate of 0.14% is relatively low among similar products. More importantly, the MSOL program supports Solana's staking yield mechanism—meaning holders can not only enjoy SOL's price fluctuations but also earn additional staking rewards. In the highly homogenized ETF sector, this is a differentiating selling point worth paying attention to. Meanwhile, the overall picture of Solana ETFs remains healthy: the total net asset value of the nine ETFs is $852 million, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding $1.1 billion in history. Except for the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, which had a single-day net outflow of $18.07 million, overall capital flow remained stable. Institutional demand for SOL allocation continues to grow steadily. MSOL saw zero inflows on its first day—is it a "cold start" phenomenon for new products, or a sign that market enthusiasm for Solana is cooling down? The data in the coming weeks will provide the answer. Once the staking yield mechanism is implemented, MSOL may becomeMy mom asked me where all the money went
I said it's about financial management
She doesn't know that my financial management is about buying coins
She also didn't know that the Korean stock market had dropped 8% yesterday
Retail investors are forced to close positions, and the sidecar mechanism is triggered directly
On Changxin's first day of listing, it drained all liquidity
Then guess what
BTC only fell 3%, but today it rose back to 63,965
The connection between crypto and Korean stocks is much weaker than expected
This is the deepest feeling I've had lately
I used to think Bitcoin and Nasdaq were interconnected
It also links with Asian stock markets
But this time, South Korea plunged 8%, and BTC only fluctuated briefly before recovering
Decoupling is underway
Why did the Korean stock market plunge?
The apparent reason is that Changxin went public and drew 300 billion yuan
The deeper reason is that retail investors in South Korea are overly leveraged
Bank credit lines are trapped by AI storage stocks
Once the margin is insufficient, the forced liquidation chain is triggered
But today it has rebounded, with SK Hynix +4%, Samsung +6%
The tightest period of cash flow may have already passed
There is also good news on the market side of the forecasting market
The United States has suspended state-level bans on forecasting markets
Polymarket finally doesn't have to sue the states
This represents an institutional relaxation of the entire prediction market track
So my judgment is that narrative is being repriced
The linkage between crypto and traditional risk assets is weakening
For long-term holders, this is more important than any short-term gain
Coincidentally, there are still a few hot topics worth discussing today
#苹果公司市值重回全球首位, surpassing Nvidia
The core narrative behind the Korean stock market crash is not fundamentals deterioration, but lever stampede. Changxin's IPO withdrew a large amount of funds, triggering a liquidation chain. Today's rebound confirmed this assessment. Similar events will happen again in the future, and each time could be a time to buy the dip.
#美联储即将公布利率决议
The market has finally seen regulatory easing. Polymarket no longer has to face lawsuits that separate states. This is an institutional positive for the entire sector, allowing long-term funds to participate in on-chain predictions with greater confidence.
#美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
The cooling of the open-source ban is essentially giving the AI infrastructure sector a green light. Areas previously weighed down by policy uncertainty—decentralized computing power and AI agent platforms—now have much clearer logic.
$BTC $SOL #叙事 #韩股A friend invited me on a trip, but I said I had no money
In fact, the money is lying around in the exchange
It's not that he doesn't want to go, he really doesn't dare to move
Yesterday, I glanced at the gainers list and almost lost my mindset
STORJ plunged directly because Storj Labs filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
Then guess what
On the same day, Nvidia promised OpenAI $250 billion
One is bankrupt, the other is making 250 billion
The rift in the crypto world has never been this great
The STORJ incident had actually been foreshadowed for a long time
After so many years in the decentralized storage sector, very few have truly emerged
Filecoin remains relatively strong, but STORJ's business model has always had issues
Collect customer money to pay node costs, and earn the price difference in the middle
But if there aren't enough customers, it's a losing business
So when Chapter 11 came, I wasn't surprised at all
On the other side, Mantis rose 66%, and KAITO rose 9%
The AI trading track and AI content platforms are attracting revenue
Funds flowed out of old storage projects and moved into AI-related tracks
On the CLARITY bill side, majority party leaders say it will be difficult to pass before the recess
The stablecoin terms have been jointly demanded by the banking industry to be amended
There is no short-term good news for regulators, but no bad news either
So my judgment is that the funds are actively changing seats
From old, unclear business models to coins
Moving toward products with revenue, and AI storytelling
What I fear most now isn't a drop, but holding onto a player who is being eliminatedWhen the landlord was urging me to rent, I was watching the candlestick chart
He thought to himself that if he waited a little longer, he could afford it
So what did he expect? Waiting, SK Hynix's earnings report fell 9% daily, then pulled back again
Waiting, NVIDIA is going to guarantee $250 billion for OpenAI
When oil prices arrived, they first dropped 8%, then pulled back because Iran attacked US military bases
Then guess what
US stocks closed with mixed gains and losses
The storage sector fell first and then rose, with the Nasdaq making slight adjustments
What did the Intel conference call say? Capital expenditure was increased
Core Scientific has signed a major AI deal with AMD
Bloom Energy revenue was $1.065 billion, up 165% year-over-year
These are all signs that the AI arms race is still accelerating
The Japanese and Korean stock markets rebounded immediately at the open today
SK Hynix +4%, Samsung +6%
I think yesterday's crash was purely a mix of emotions
It has nothing to do with fundamentals
The FOMC meeting is underway, and the market's biggest concern is Powell's stubbornness
If he says inflation is still fluctuating, then risk assets will tremble
But if he says he sees signs of slowing inflation,
Then the script for the next few months might be Risk On
So my judgment is not to act before the FOMC is implemented
Powell's words set the direction
But I lean toward him not being too hawkish this time, because economic data is already cooling down
I glanced at today's news page and had a few points I wanted to mention
#英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt
This could be the biggest AI infrastructure signal of the year. The $250 billion guarantee is no small sum; NVIDIA uses its cash flow to endorse OpenAI. This is a long-term positive for the AI computing power sector, with funds concentrating on leading infrastructure projects.
#摩根士丹利推出ETH和SOL的现货ETP
Yesterday, Korean stocks triggered a sidecar and rebounded today. Changxin's IPO effect was only a one-time event; the fundamentals of the storage industry remain unchanged—SK Hynix's HBM4 has already been mass-produced and shipped, and Seagate orders are scheduled through 2029. The window for bottom-fishing may have already passed.
#停火48小时告吹, the US and Iran negotiated while fighting
Oil prices moved in three directions over two days: a sharp drop → ceasefire expectations→ a rebound → Iran's counterattack. This geopolitical fluctuation makes it difficult for capital in the commodity market to steer its direction, instead highlighting the value of crypto as a non-sovereign asset—BTC is not affected by any government ceasefire agreement.
$BTC $ETH #美股期货 #FOMCLast month I was still eating instant noodles, but today I ordered Haidilao takeout directly
It's not that I made money, but that watching whales make me hungry
Multicoin Capital has released 1.97 million staked HYPE
108 million US dollars
This scale is not something retail investors can play
Then guess what
Grayscale immediately released a report saying HYPE's forward P/E ratio is only 15-18 times
Undervalued, recommended to buy
On one side, VCs are uncollateralizing and selling shares; on the other, institutions are calling for undervaluation
Who do you believe?
I checked the on-chain data, and the 1.97 million HYPE from Multicoin was withdrawn from the staking pool
But it hasn't been transferred to the exchange yet, only unstaked
It's not necessarily about selling; it could be switching to a staking platform
At the same time, Grayscale is also cheering on the market, saying HYPE's fundamentals are solid
The liquidation incident on competing exchanges also gave HYPE some breathing room
Trade.xyz SK Hynix contract was unusually liquidated, which instead drew attention to HYPE's risk control advantages
Grayscale's saying is true: blockchains with 15-18x PE are indeed not expensive
However, Multicoin's destaking move will still face short-term selling pressure
If the 1.97 million yuan didn't enter the exchange, it would be just a false alarm
If you do, first look at the support zone between 145-150
NVIDIA also made big news, planning to provide OpenAI with a $250 billion guarantee
This scale is historic for the AI sector
If guarantees are implemented, the logic of AI infrastructure tokens will be fully revalued
So my judgment is that Multicoin's unstaking will temporarily suppress HYPE
However, Grayscale continues to endorse HYPE's fundamentals
In the one-empty-and-many game, if 1.97 million coins do not enter, it is a false alarm
Finally, let's talk about today's market hotspots, with several directions worth watching
#英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt
What does a 250 billion guarantee mean? This is equivalent to NVIDIA using its own cash flow to endorse AI infrastructure. This is a vote of confidence in the entire AI sector, with AI computing power tokens and decentralized GPU networks indirectly beneficial.
#Storj Labs files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring, STORJ plunges
Storj's bankruptcy serves as a reminder to everyone: not all storage projects survive. Projects that have been online for many years on the mainnet can also collapse due to unsustainable business models. The storage sector will accelerate differentiation, benefiting leading projects.
#美联储即将公布利率决议
This data is even more interesting when compared to Multicoin's HYPE destaking—the differentiation of the staking ecosystem: ETH is repairing, HYPE is absorbing unlocking pressure. In the long run, chains with stable staking rates are more worth allocating.
$HYPE $BTC #鲸鱼 #质押For the past 25 years, millions of people have watched their portfolios grow in dollar terms and assumed they were building wealth. But there's another side to the story. The S&P 500 represents ownership of productive businesses—companies that innovate, hire, earn profits, and create value. Gold represents something very different: a hedge against losing confidence in the monetary system itself. Since 2000, American companies have become larger, more profitable, and more productive. Yet gold hasMy best friend asked what I've been up to lately. I said I'm watching the market, and she said, 'Didn't you say you wouldn't speculate anymore?'
I said this time was different
This time, I was really watching, nothing was done
BTC 63,965, the 24-hour low was 62,741, then pulled back again
The bulls and bears traded at this position all night
Then guess what
Trading volume was only 5,183 BTC, a severe contraction
This is neither selling nor accumulating shares
Everyone was holding back, waiting
What are you waiting for? Of course, it's the FOMC
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision today, but market expectations remain unchanged
But whatever Powell says about inflation and views on employment, the direction is entirely on his lips
I glanced at ETH, 1917, up 2.18%
Stronger than BTC, the validator exit queue has been cleared to zero
What does this mean? It means the staking side is no longer bleeding
Previously, ETH was weak because validators were lining up to leave, but now the queue is gone
SOL 73.74, steady progress, no problem
At this level, I dare not chase at the high price, but if I say bearish, I fear missing out
My own strategy is to stay still
In a market without direction, staying still is the best strategy
If ETH holds above 1950, that would be a real signal
So my judgment is that now is the right time to wait and see what happens, and wait until the FOMC is finalized before making any moves
The exit of zero validators is a well-overlooked medium-term benefit
If ETH emerges in an independent rally this time, it won't be a coincidence
And let's also take a look at what everyone has been talking about lately
#英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt
This is itHere's a rewritten version with a fresh style while keeping the same message:
The market has delivered a solid rebound, but it's still too early to declare a confirmed bottom.
📊 $TOTAL and $USDT.D are yet to reclaim important technical levels.
🐋 Whale accumulation is improving, though strong conviction is still missing.
📈 Anchored CVD is showing signs of recovery, but it hasn't turned decisively bullish.
🏦 With the FOMC decision approaching, increased volatility remains a real possibility.
For now, patience is the strategy.
A sharp bounce can provide relief, but it doesn't automatically signal the start of a sustained uptrend. Let price action confirm the move before jumping into green candles.
Keep an eye on:
👀 $BTC
👀 $ETH
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #Trading #OKX #CXMTDebutShockwave #AIEarningsWatch #CeasefireHitsCrude#Storj Labs files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring, STORJ plunges
$RSR
Don't comfort yourself with the idea that "a bargain is an opportunity." The RSR dropped from 0.02 to 0.01, not a chance for a halving, but capital downgrading the coin. Trading volume is less than 400 million, while BTC, ETH, and SOL have daily average trading volumes dozens of times higher—retail investors are watching candlesticks for the bottom, and funds have already fled. A coin without a new narrative or liquidity support will become more like a junkyard the lower the price. The market is punishing those who use a "catch-up rally mentality" to catch up on the knife.
The real issue isn't the low price, but that RSR has lost market attention. The positive expectations for the Clarity Act are concentrated on compliant mainstream coins. Retail investors believe the bill's passage will benefit all coins, but funds only recognize certainty—BTC and SOL rebounded first when the bill was announced, and RSR struggled even to keep up. Trading volume is more honest than price: 400 million in volume means no big capital is willing to pay for its story; only retail investors are pulling emotionally.
Funds are not evenly distributed. It first priced mainstream assets, then gave coins with strong narratives or direct policy benefits. RSR, a small coin without new catalysts, can only rely on short-term sentiment during BTC sideways trading, but its sustainability is extremely poor—no new capital enters, and after the rally, there is new downside space. Uniswap's founder's protocol fee logic is an example: even DeFi leaders optimize their yield structures, while small coins don't even see fundamental updates.
So my judgment: the most important thing to watch for RSR right now is not price fluctuations, but whether it can regain market attention during the Clarity Act voting window. Without attention, there is no liquidity, and prices are inflated.
At this stage, first trust in liquidity, then look at the narrative. Without capital to reprice, no matter how full the RSR story is, it will only be a footnote in the noise.No more electric cars, just switch to Tesla when you break even
I stared at the account for ten minutes, unsure whether to cry or laugh
Yesterday, Korean stocks plunged 8%, and Changxin immediately topped the A-share market on its first day of listing
SK Hynix's financial report clearly surged 557%, but after hours, it first dropped 9% before pulling back
This market is just too fragmented
Then guess what
BTC 63965 actually rose by 0.92%.
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has failed, and Iran has directly attacked U.S. military bases, driving up oil prices
But Da Bing barely moved
Geopolitical risks seem to have failed this time
Look at SK Hynix's conference call that HBM4 has already entered mass production and shipment
Goldman Sachs also steps in to say that Japan's AI semiconductor crash "has not broken"
Intel is also raising its capital expenditures
So this wave of memory plunge is more like an emotional shock following Changxin's IPO
It's not that the fundamentals are wrong
Korean stocks rebounded at the open today, with SK Hynix +4% and Samsung +6%
Once emotions are digested, what should come back will come back
So my judgment is that the 8% plunge in Korean stocks is an event-driven overshoot
The chain reaction of retail investors forced liquidation the day before yesterday has nothing to do with storage fundamentals
Crypto, on the other hand, has become a safe haven, with BTC following its own independent market
The FOMC will release its results today, and rates are highly likely to remain unchanged
But how Powell talks about inflation and describes employment is far more important than interest rates themselves
Next, I'll glance at any recent hot topics and casually chat a bit
#美联储即将公布利率决议
Yesterday, the Korean stock market triggered a sidecar mechanism, with retail investors forcing margin to straighten the chain#美联储即将公布利率决议
The main event is about to happen! The Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced at 2 AM Beijing time on July 30, and this time the focus is really intense.
According to CME data, the market expects nearly a 70% probability of maintaining the current interest rate, with only a 30.5% chance of a rate hike. Bank of America pointed out a key fact: since 1994, the Federal Reserve has never forced a rate hike when the expectation for a hike was below 60%. If there is an unexpected rate hike this time, it would be unprecedented. TD Securities also predicts a high probability of no change, but expects two officials to vote against and support a rate hike.
Currently, data from both sides are pulling back and forth. Weakening consumer confidence and cooling employment expectations support the dovish stance; however, geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices provide hawkish reasons.
Another key point is that Waller has removed forward guidance, meaning the market has lost its usual reference benchmark. Every word in tonight’s meeting statement and press conference will directly impact the market and will be the most important indicator for the upcoming trend.
The crypto market, U.S. stocks, and forex are likely to start waiting and watching, with volatility increasing as the decision approaches.
Do you expect a dovish outcome or an action that exceeds expectations?
#FederalReserve #FederalReserveRateDecision #BTC #MarketAnalysis
Version 2 (In-depth rational long article, for industry communication)
The market is quietly awaiting the Federal Reserve interest rate decision at midnight. I have sorted through the current complex market signals.
From a probability pricing perspective, the expectation to maintain the current rate is dominant, but uncertainties cannot be ruled out. Historical patterns show that in nearly 30 years, the Federal Reserve has never chosen to hike rates when the expectation for a hike was below 60%. Breaking this precedent would inevitably cause severe shocks across major assets. Institutions generally expect a pause in rate hikes, though there are hawkish officials dissenting internally.
Fundamental bullish and bearish factors are in a tug-of-war. Weakening consumption and employment data reflect economic cooling, favoring a pause; however, recent geopolitical conflicts have driven oil prices up, meaning inflation risks remain, giving hawks a reason to hold their stance.
The biggest difficulty this time is that Waller has canceled forward guidance, invalidating the market’s usual interpretive framework. Without clear long-term signals, the wording of the entire press conference will become the sole core basis for pricing, and any hawkish or dovish wording will be magnified infinitely.
Whether trading crypto, U.S. stocks, or crude oil, tonight requires caution. Uncertainty is higher than in previous rate meetings. I will choose to cautiously control positions and wait for the outcome before acting accordingly.
#Version3 (Brief and sharp update, suitable for social media/short posts)
The Federal Reserve rate meeting at midnight is really delicate now.
The probability of a rate hike is less than 30%, and historically there are almost no precedents for forced hikes.
Soft economic data favors dovishness, but the oil price rebound gives hawks confidence.
Plus, the cancellation of forward guidance means there is no fixed script to follow.
Tonight’s Waller press conference could change short-term market trends with just one sentence.
The market may face large volatility at any time, so risk must be well managed. #美联储即将公布利率决议
The Federal Reserve's decision is about to be announced! The market is caught in a huge game of strategy.
At 2 AM Beijing time on July 30, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be released, and at the same time, Chair Powell will hold his first press conference since taking office, which is currently the most important pricing indicator for the market.
According to CME FedWatch data, the current probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 69.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 30.5%. Bank of America points out that since 1994, the Federal Reserve has never chosen to raise rates when the rate hike expectation was below 60%. If a rate hike is announced in July, it would be a historically rare event. TD Securities predicts that the rate will most likely remain unchanged, but there will be two dissenting votes supporting a rate hike within the meeting, showing internal division is already apparent.
Economic data shows a clear tug-of-war between bullish and bearish signals. Consumer confidence has declined, and employment expectations have weakened, providing grounds for dovish views; however, geopolitical conflicts have pushed up oil prices, giving hawkish reasons for a rate hike.
Notably, Powell has already eliminated forward guidance, and the old logic of interpreting policy statements is no longer valid. The wording of this press conference will directly influence the subsequent direction of the stock market and cryptocurrencies.
U.S. Treasury bonds are also sending dangerous signals. After the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.7%, crude oil and U.S. stocks simultaneously came under pressure and declined. BTC and ETH are currently showing limited volatility, indicating the market is waiting and watching for guidance from the decision.
The biggest risk in the market now is not the rate hike or cut itself, but an unexpected outcome. Whether it is a surprise rate hike or a tough stance, it could directly trigger a new market move. Risk control must be well prepared tonight.BofA says "unprecedented," TD bets on "two dissenting votes" — Tonight's Fed, the market is pricing in a "non-standard" decision
What does a 30.5% rate hike probability mean?
According to the script of the past 30 years — it means "impossible to happen."
Bank of America reviewed all data since 1994 and concluded: the Fed has never raised rates when the market's rate hike probability was below 60%.
60% is that invisible red line. 30.5%? Not even half of the red line.
But tonight, the entire market is taking this 30.5% seriously.
Citi says this is the "most divided moment since September 2024." JPMorgan says this is "the hardest to predict in recent years."
Something that should be "impossible" is now being priced by Wall Street as "possible."
What does this indicate?
It means this time is really different.
Different in two ways.
First: historical precedent has been broken.
A month ago, the market was almost certain of no change in July. June CPI unexpectedly fell to 3.5%, core CPI year-over-year dropped to 2.6% — everything pointed to "wait."
But then three things happened:
First, the US-Iran ceasefire broke down, Brent crude surged to $100. Oil prices have risen 25% since the June meeting.
Second, Trump announced new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 countries.
Third, AI investment remains strong, driving related demand growth.
The triple factors combined, July rate hike probability jumped from 10% to 30%.
One data point shifted the market from "certainty" to "anxiety."
Second: the Fed is divided internally.
TD Securities predicts: even if rates remain unchanged, Harker and Logan will cast two dissenting votes supporting a hike.
What does two dissenting votes mean?
It means the "no change" outcome itself is a hawkish statement.
It means the Fed no longer speaks with one voice; internal divisions have become public.
And the biggest variable is the person in the chair — Kevin Walsh.
He did something no Fed chair dared to imagine in the past decade:
He scrapped "forward guidance."
Previously, the Fed would tell you in advance "what we plan to do." The market had direction, expectations, and confidence.
Walsh refuses. He says: every meeting is a real decision meeting; I won’t tell you the answer in advance.
What’s the result?
The market lost its compass.
Goldman says investors see "exceptionally high uncertainty" about the July meeting outcome. Fed "mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos directly says: even he can’t guess.
A Fed where even the "mouthpiece" fails — is this still the Fed we know?
At 2 a.m. tonight, there are four possibilities.
Scenario A: No change + moderate wording (highest probability, about 50%)
Short-term dovish. But don’t celebrate too soon — Walsh’s press conference could revise this anytime.
Scenario B: No change + two dissenting votes (about 28%)
Surface no change, but essentially hawkish. Harker and Logan’s dissent will tell the market: a hike is just one breath away.
Scenario C: Surprise 25bp hike (about 20%)
Short-term shock. JPMorgan predicts: S&P 500 down 1.5%-2%, Nasdaq 100 decline could double.
But don’t just watch stocks. BofA says if July hikes, it will be "unprecedented" — pushing 2026 hike expectations from 45bps to 60bps, while "building Walsh’s credibility on independence and anti-inflation."
In plain language: this hike is paving the way for more hikes in the future.
Scenario D: No change + Walsh’s vague guidance (lowest probability, but most tormenting)
Without forward guidance, the market falls into a guessing game.
Every word will be overinterpreted. Every sentence will be scrutinized repeatedly.
Finally, three truths —
First, the decision result may not be that important.
What matters is the wording. Whether "patience" is removed from the statement. What Walsh says or doesn’t say at the press conference.
In this framework rebuilding period, every word has pricing power.
Second, the Fed is no longer the one that "won’t surprise the market."
In the past, the average error between fed funds futures implied rate and final policy rate was only 2.4bps. This time, the error might be measured in "yards."
Walsh wants this uncertainty. He wants the market to relearn "guessing."
Third, no matter the result tonight —
The probability of a rate hike before September is close to 100%.
Huatai Securities already said: under the baseline scenario, Walsh’s probability of hiking before September is nearly 100%.
Tonight is just the appetizer. The main course is in September.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储即将公布利率决议 Last night, the U.S. storage and optical communications sectors weakened across the board. Seagate's performance met targets and briefly surged, but SK Hynix dragged down the market. SK Hynix's revenue and profit fell short of expectations, with US stocks plunging nearly 9% after hours. Fortunately, Korean stocks rebounded slightly before trading, with the company claiming to have orders from ten long-term customers and that HBM4 chips have already been shipped in bulk.
Right now, the tech stock market is very contradictory: good earnings fall even better, and even worse than expected. No matter how much positive news institutional funds withdraw, it can't hold up the market. Many retail investors only look at stock price fluctuations and ignore the fundamentals of the industry chain. The long-term performance logic of the domestic computing hardware sector remains positive.
This round of tech stock corrections is far stronger than in previous years, so there's no need to be overly anxious. Short-term losses don't mean long-term losses. Invest within your means, avoid over-holding and leveraging assets, and keep a calm mindset and wait for the cycle to recover. $BTC $ETH What is the underlying logic behind the current extreme tug-of-war in the market? 1. Special significance of this meeting: Walsh's first fully hosted press conference since taking office, completely rewriting the rules$BTC At 2 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, the July interest rate decision will be announced. Afterwards, the new chairman Washes will hold his first official press conference since taking office. It's completely different from the Powell era over the past decade. Wash has completely withdrawn its forward-looking guidance and no longer publishes interest rate plots. In the past, traders could predict market trends based on the central bank's policy direction. Nowadays, there is no fixed reference frame; everyone has to guess his speaking attitude from scratch. Every word used throughout the meeting will become the core pricing basis for U.S. stocks, cryptocurrency, and Treasuries going forward. Market volatility will be magnified exponentially, and neither bulls nor bears dare to heavily bet on one-sided moves in advance. $SNDK $SPCX 2. Rate Pricing Probabilities Polarized, Rare in Rate Hike History CME FedWatch Latest data provides clear forecasts: 69.5% probability of keeping rates unchanged, 30.5% probability of 25 basis point hikes. Bank of America specifically reviewed historical patterns: since 1994, the Federal Reserve has never forced a rate hike when the market probability of rate hikes was below 60%. If an unexpected rate hike occurs tonight, it would be unprecedented in forty years. This is also the key reason why funds remain cautious and hesitant to make large-scale trades. On one hand, they are certain they are likely to hold their position; on the other, they fear a sudden hawkish strike, causing the market to continue narrow fluctuations and pull-up.7.29 Early Morning SOL Analysis by Lao Jiang
Retracement: 73.00-73.30 (Stable range for long position layout)
Stop loss: 72.40, effective break below this low support invalidates the bullish structure, adjust strategy promptly
Target: 74.20,
SOL started a rebound rally from the 72.30 low point, surged to the 74.55 stage high, then entered a consolidation retracement. The overall lows continue to rise, the upward base structure remains intact, and the current pullback is a shakeout and rotation during the uptrend, not a trend reversal.
The coin's movement mainly follows BTC and ETH trends, with no independent bearish momentum currently. Short-term focus is on the strength of bullish support in the support zone. $SOL #美联储即将公布利率决议 Korean stock Hynix continued to decline during trading, while Samsung rose a little. South Korea's composite index #KOSPI has now plunged.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Composite Index is also currently declining.
Any global stock index closely linked with AI industry chain companies like China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States will basically be affected.
Compared to European stock markets, they performed relatively better amid the global decline, as their AI industry chains are relatively weak. This also reflects that in this new era of AI, Europe's innovation capacity still has some issues.
There are two backgrounds behind this round of decline:
1. From October last year to March this year: The market has doubts about the industrial capital expenditure of the "Big Seven."
2. April to June 2026: Market gains mainly driven by niche sectors, including memory chips (such as Micron, SanDisk, Intel, as well as Samsung and SK Hynix) and some Chinese CPO optical module companies.
When these sectors reach their peak, new doubts arise:
First, upstream companies (such as Nvidia) have concerns about their capital expenditures; Second, after these segments finished rising, the market began to question the entire industry chain.
This is the current doubt among Wall Street giants about the supply chain from top to bottom, which has led to this decline. Subsequently, as capacity increased, the market repriced the price.
Looking at it now, this round of decline is actually not over yet and ongoing, so let's continue to observe.
$MU
$SNDK
$SKHYNIX 1. Overall judgment: The current market is undergoing a rapid deleveraging period of range recovery and is gradually entering the pre-FOMC event waiting phase. In the past 24 hours, BTC rose about 1.39%, ETH rose about 2.16%, and SOL increased about 0.94%. ETH outperformed BTC and SOL, but none of the three instruments showed a healthy trend of simultaneous expansion in price, trading volume, active buying, and open interest. From the snapshot in the previous article to now: BTC open interest dropped from about 106058 to 103146, a decrease of about 2.75%; ETH holdings dropped from about 2.319 million to 2.2917 million, a decrease of about 1.18%; SOL holdings dropped from about 8.53 million to 8.3243 million tokens, a decrease of about 2.41%. The price rebound and lower OI indicate that this recovery still includes a significant amount of short covering and leveraged exits. ETH has the smallest drop in OI, so its relative strength is the best; SOL saw the weakest gains, while long accounts were the most crowded, and its rebound quality was lower than ETH. Market overview shows the total market capitalization of the crypto market is about $2.19 trillion, up 1.13%; Turnover was about 61.8 billion USD, down 11.86%; The Fear and Greed Index stands at 35, still in the fear zone. With prices recovering and overall market turnover declining, the current market cannot be defined as a new round of comprehensive risk appetite expansion. BTC remains a directional switch for three varieties. It has rebounded from 62,660.10 to near 64,000, but 64,175 is the past