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BitMart officially announces shutdown, but the CEO is actually the last to know?
Fresh industry scandal: #BitMart officially announced on July 26 that the platform would soon be shut down.
Ironically, when the platform announced the shutdown, the CEO himself only found out about it by browsing social media.
It's hard not to sigh—this farce has exposed the industry's long-standing truth.
Nowadays, many senior executives and heads of exchanges in the industry are just performers on stage. With a publicly exposed persona, interviews, and attendance at major summits, it seems they hold decision-making power. In reality, they lack core influence, do not grasp capital flows, and are unclear about the platform's true operational plans.
Once major decisions are completely controlled by behind-the-scenes forces, even information as serious as platform shutdowns cannot be obtained by the top management in advance. On stage, they shape their image; offstage, they have no right to participate in core decisions—this is no longer an isolated case.
This also confirms my long-held view:
Don't judge a platform's safety solely based on the reputation of its founder or CEO. A persona can be packaged, speeches can be rehearsed, and a glamorous circle business card doesn't necessarily mean control.
With global regulations tightening, the trend of major exchange-exit withdrawals is only likely to persist. Many glamorous team stories gradually reveal their true colors during the industry's reshuffling process.
BitMart isn't the only company with actors. Feel free to comment if any other platform has a head who is an actor.BitMart officially announces shutdown, but the CEO is actually the last to know?
Fresh industry scandal: #BitMart officially announced on July 26 that the platform would soon be shut down.
Ironically, when the platform announced the shutdown, the CEO himself only found out about it by browsing social media.
It's hard not to sigh—this farce has exposed the industry's long-standing truth.
Nowadays, many senior executives and heads of exchanges in the industry are just performers on stage. With a publicly exposed persona, interviews, and attendance at major summits, it seems they hold decision-making power. In reality, they lack core influence, do not grasp capital flows, and are unclear about the platform's true operational plans.
Once major decisions are completely controlled by behind-the-scenes forces, even information as serious as platform shutdowns cannot be obtained by the top management in advance. On stage, they shape their image; offstage, they have no right to participate in core decisions—this is no longer an isolated case.
This also confirms my long-held view:
Don't judge a platform's safety solely based on the reputation of its founder or CEO. A persona can be packaged, speeches can be rehearsed, and a glamorous circle business card doesn't necessarily mean control.
With global regulations tightening, the trend of major exchange-exit withdrawals is only likely to persist. Many glamorous team stories gradually reveal their true colors during the industry's reshuffling process.
BitMart isn't the only company with actors. Feel free to comment if any other platform has a head who is an actor.The 60-day correlation coefficient between the KOSPI and the Nasdaq 100 rose to about 0.50, the highest since 2021. South Korea and the U.S. may seem to have cross-market configurations, but at the core, they are betting on AI chips.
When Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have more than half of their KOSPI weights, geographic dispersion remains and factor dispersion has disappeared. Correlation continues to rise, and cross-market stop-losses will be triggered simultaneously.
#韩股与纳指相关性创2021年来新高🔥 Early Thursday morning, U.S. AI giants face a "triple life-or-death strike"
This time, the market is not just waiting for a simple interest rate decision, nor a financial report.
What needs to be verified is:
Is the trillion-dollar AI investment truly a future productivity revolution, or just a fantasy that the capital market is prematurely overdrawing?
Beijing time early Thursday morning:
🕑 02:00
The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision.
The market has basically priced in — rates will remain unchanged.
So what really impacts the market is not whether rates are cut or not, but what signals the Fed sends:
Is there still room for future rate cuts?
Can high-valuation tech stocks continue to enjoy a premium?
⸻
🕓 After 04:00
Microsoft and Meta earnings reports come one after another.
On the surface, these companies remain strong.
But the capital market is no longer focused on "how much profit was made," but rather:
When will the money invested in AI start to generate returns?
Last week, Google's earnings were actually not bad, but due to huge AI capital expenditures, quarterly free cash flow was compressed or even negative, and the stock price remained under pressure.
Tesla even plunged 14% in one day, as the market reexamines:
Has the era of tech giants burning money wildly entered a valuation reappraisal phase?
⸻
This year:
Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon's AI capital expenditures are expected to exceed $725 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 77%.
Here’s the question:
With such massive investments in AI servers, data centers, chips, and power,
Will the future profits be able to cover today's investments?
This is the real concern on Wall Street.
⸻
📌 Microsoft needs to prove:
The growth rate of its Azure cloud business can match the frenzied expansion of data center investments.
📌 Meta needs to prove:
The cash flow generated by its advertising business can fill the huge black hole of long-term AI investments.
⸻
The market may see two possible trends next:
✅ A friendly interest rate environment + earnings prove AI commercialization is accelerating
AI stocks may see a new round of gains, with capital flowing back in.
❌ A hawkish Fed + earnings show AI investment returns are insufficient
Then this may not be an ordinary correction, but:
Wall Street starts looking for payers for the AI bills piled up crazily over the past few years.
⸻
What truly decides is not just the rise or fall of Microsoft and Meta.
But the entire valuation logic of the AI era:
How much it’s worth in the future depends on whether the money burned now can turn into cash flow.
⚠️ After the climax, what the market fears most is not the story ending, but discovering the story hasn’t made money yet.#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Today's focus is definitely on the Five-Star data and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
If we look solely at this month's non-farm payroll data and CPI data, both fell short of expectations. A rate cut is out of the question, and a rate hike is basically a fantasy, but the initial jobless claims have remained low for several consecutive weeks.
Based on the combined information, it is highly likely that the interest rate will remain unchanged this time, so volatility should not be too large.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's short-term resistance remains at 64300-64800.
However, the daily support line at 63600-63300 was only briefly breached yesterday, so technically it is difficult to establish a clear direction.
For those without positions, it is still recommended to wait and see $ETH $BTC $SNDK #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 Starting May 27, South Korea allows trading of 2x leveraged ETFs for individual stocks Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. When the underlying stocks plunge sharply, ETF rebalancing and forced liquidation will amplify selling pressure, making volatility no longer solely determined by fundamentals.
Leveraged products give retail investors a faster sense of direction but also shorten the market's fuse. Next, observe trading volume, securities lending balance, and the recovery speed after circuit breakers; only when all three deteriorate simultaneously does liquidity risk arise.
#SamsungSKHynixLeveragedETF intensifies volatility in the Korean market Brothers holding $BABY, pay attention: the new unlocking period will begin on the 10th of next month. I feel like it will fall below 0.01.
1. $BABY has dropped 93% from its ATH, but the market has not stabilized or rebounded properly, clearly indicating that the project team has not managed market capitalization. The likelihood of a rally is very low now.
2. Babylon's product logic is sound: it allows BTC to be locked in its own mainnet wallet without cross-chain or packaging, allowing it to be staked and earn yields, and even used as collateral on Aave to borrow U. Technically, it's UTXO + time lock + EOTS. This TBV solution is indeed the strongest in terms of security and capital efficiency in BTC DeFi today.
3. But returns are a major drawback. The annual return on staking is less than 1%, and even when users come, it's like eating a meal of the pig's feet. So Babylon can only desperately connect with Aave V4 and attract institutional clients like Utila to attract traffic, relying on borrowing yields to build appeal. It works on the product level, but doesn't make money on the profit side.
4. The key point is that the Babylon project team has basically achieved its goals, and its future imagination space is already limited. However, BABY's circulating supply is currently only 37%, meaning nearly two-thirds of the tokens remain to be unlocked in the future.
5. The MC/TVL ratio is only 0.02, which is theoretically extremely underestimated. But this low ratio isn't because the token price was miskilled, but because the token can't capture protocol value—the project team has no buyback mechanism or dividends.
6. So overall, the project itself is a good track and good technology, but BABY is not a good target. If you want to play, it's recommended to wait until you've finished unlocking and see the 0.008-0.01 range before reconsidering.People always think that as long as ETH can reach 2000, it means the bulls are stable, but the market is quietly telling you something else.
Have you ever thought that the 2000 level is not the end, but rather a liquidity trap?
My own position is a long position of 1858, with all my principal withdrawn and most of my profits collected. The remaining stock holdings are marked with 2000 to take profit and 1940 for protection, and no further fussing is needed. Why? Because the market gave me a very clear signal: 1982 has already touched once, indicating 2000 is not far off, but after a rally, it quickly fell back to around 1955, indicating there is indeed selling pressure above. It's like a taut rubber band—go up and you can eat a section; Retreat, once it reaches its position, it's over.
But what truly stands out is not ETH itself, but the cross-market synergy between it and BEAT. BEAT rose over 20% in a single day, entering the acceleration phase at 15 minutes, and the odds of chasing long positions have worsened. I opened a short position, only doing short-term trades. However, its trend remains strong, so I absolutely won't hold this trade: if it holds again near 4.43, I'll exit; as sentiment cools down, look again at 4.20 if there's no support.
Here's an easily overlooked point: ETH is quite stable, but the short-term frenzy of altcoins is actually quietly draining liquidity from mainstream coins. When funds concentrate on altcoins during the acceleration phase, the ETH market is more prone to "slow rises and sharp falls" — because once the chasing capital retreats, mainstream support is drained.
- Bullish path: If ETH holds above 1955, 2000 is highly likely, but this requires cooler sentiment and liquidity return.
- Bearish risk: If tokens like BEAT suddenly crash, panic will quickly spread to ETH, and the 1940 protection level may be broken.
My conclusion is: ETH 2000 is not the end, but a game point. Cross-market linkage tells us that the frenzy of knockoffs is a mainstream "invisible lever"—boosting during gains and accelerating when falling. So, don't just look at ETH's candlesticks—keep an eye on the sentiment thermometer of those small coins.
(The above is just my personal observation and does not constitute any operational advice.) $ETH $BEAT #加密市场 #衍生品视角)I recovered from $SNXX. After thinking it over carefully last night, such an incredible drop must mean a rebound. The FOMC meeting has already traded too much on rate hike expectations, and Twitter is filled with despair. This is the time for a rebound, so I reinvested heavily in $SNXX 8u. Just now, 9u was flat, and no matter how high the rebound is, it has nothing to do with me. I don't dare to buy anymore
The disappointing earnings report on $SKHYNIX X this morning nearly scared me to death, but luckily I was determined and actually made a comeback.
There's no way to rebound in storage going forward. The lesson this time is:
At the beginning of the early decline, people's willingness to buy the dip was strong, but when key levels or sharp drops occurred, they could form synergy to create an effective rebound
After despair in the late stage, a death spiral can easily form. There are too many trapped positions above, the strength of the rebound weakens, and once a rebound occurs, it will be overtaken by trapped stocks, which is extremely risky The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell from 4.65% to 4.60%. Falling oil prices eased inflationary pressures, bonds traded first with expectations of rate cuts, giving risk assets a brief breather.
But declining yields do not mean macro risk disappears. Friends, the next step is to look at core inflation and long-term auction demand. If term premiums rise again, 4.60% may only be a short-term pause.
#美国国债收益率回落KOSPI closed down 10.84% at 6,023.66 points, marking the largest single-day drop in about five months. The market is recalculating the valuation of Samsung and SK Hynix together with the progress of China's DUV equipment and the competitive expectations after CXMT's listing.
Chip orders won't disappear overnight, but valuations can be recalculated in a day. If the yield of Chinese equipment continues to improve, the premium on Korean memory stocks will first have to undergo a stress test.
#KoreaKOSPIPlunges11%DueToChinaDUVThreat Opened at 1115 with a 50x long order, current price at 1030, directly broke through the stop-loss and lost 127.97U. My account was missing a bit. It's a lie to say I don't feel sorry. The 7.6% drop under 50x leverage felt like a needle being stabbed down, not even giving a chance to struggle. Looking back at the daily chart, $SNDK it fell all the way down from 2382, with the moving averages completely pressed down. The MACD hovered below the zero axis, with no sign of stopping the decline. Going long on this kind of chart is like standing under a mudslide, reaching for a stone. Yesterday, $BEAT and $ETH made 174U Today, I lost 128U and made a net profit of 46U in two days. I didn't get hurt, but this hit me awake. After consecutive profits, it's easiest to get carried away. I think I'm accurate in everything and want to catch the next one. This SNDK trade isn't a technical issue, it's a mindset issue. I made money and was eager to win again, but the market pulled me back to reality. Both BEAT and $BOT are rebounding today—one at 10 points, another at 18 points. It looks like there's a chance, but when I check the candlestick, it's all oversold rebounds after a sharp drop, not a trend reversal BOT's turnover in 24 hours was just over 4 million. For these low-liquidity small coins, the main force can easily trap people in the line with just a few lines. Don't chase them. No matter how fierce the rally, don't chase them. $SPCX rebounded from 110 to 116.8. The 110 level holds for now, somewhat suggesting an oversold rebound. But 116.8 has already been pulled up for a while. Chasing in now isn't worth the profit-loss ratio. Wait until it pulls back to 113 to 114 and doesn't break below 114Last night's rollercoaster for storage stocks: Record-breaking earnings numbers, but stock prices first fell and then rose
Last night, SK Hynix released its Q2 financial report, with explosive figures: revenue of 79.3186 trillion KRW, operating profit of 60.5426 trillion KRW, year-on-year increases of 256.8% and 557.2%, marking the company's best single-quarter performance in history, with first-half revenue surpassing 100 trillion KRW for the first time.
But the market's first reaction was a drop—the stock price once fell nearly 7% in pre-market trading. The reason is not poor performance, but rather falling short of the consensus expectations previously given by some institutions (14 brokerages previously forecasted revenue of about 84.1 trillion won and operating profit of 64.1 trillion won, but the actual figures did not reach this line). Moreover, SK Hynix has already pulled back more than 30% from its peak this month, making sentiment fragile. The phrase "positive news exceeding expectations" is directly treated as negative and traded.
From OKX's TradFi perpetual contract movement, we can clearly see this roller coaster: Micron plunged all the way to a low of $771.76, SanDisk dropped to $1,027, then both rebounded sharply. Micron pulled back to $833.65 (up 0.50% today), SanDisk pulled back to $1,129.58 (up 1.41% today)—a classic 'all the negative news has been released' style. After digesting the initial disappointment, Turning around and starting trading, the year-on-year surge of 256%-557% is the more fundamental fact.
Looking at a longer cycle, this rebound is only a temporary stop: Micron fell 14.42% in the past 7 days and 23.81% in 30 days; SanDisk dropped 29.39% and 43.28% in 30 days—the pullback in storage stocks was quite brutal, and whether last night's rebound can be considered a temporary bottom remains to be seen in the coming days.
$SKHYNIX $MU $SNDK When I opened this $BTC chart today, my first reaction was: don't get carried away.
The 1h range is still 62660 to 64175, current price 64000. Funding rate is 0.0100%, OI about 103179 BTC. The data isn't out of control, but it doesn't support me blindly betting on direction either.
If you force trades in this segment, many times you profit from luck and lose discipline.
Let's put direction aside for now; 64200 and 62700 are today's two gates.
If it really closes above 64200, next I'll watch for a pullback. Only if it holds will I try going long, target 64800, and admit a mistake if it falls near 62400.
If it breaks below 62700 first and the rebound can't get back above, I'll consider short-term weakness, target 62100, stop loss 64500.
I say I don't want to catch this fake move, I just prefer to wait for one more candle rather than learn a lesson with a stop loss.
If you could only set one alert, would you choose 64200 or 62700?
For personal trading notes only, not investment advice. His mindset completely collapsed
SK Hynix's financial report ultimately failed to beat market expectations, leaving me frustrated all night 😭
Last night, I barely managed to fall asleep until 3 a.m., woke up before 6 a.m., my mind tossing and turning over the storage sector's trends, constantly pondering how the entire track would move next.
The first thing I did upon opening my eyes was to dig through the full financial report data. First, let me sort out the real situation for everyone:
Total Q2 revenue was about $57.3 billion, compared to the market consensus of $60.6 billion; Operating profit was $43.7 billion, also below the expected $46.2 billion.
Looking at the growth data alone, it was truly explosive: revenue surged 257% year-on-year and rose 51% quarter-on-quarter, operating profit more than fivefold year-on-year and 61% quarter-on-quarter, both setting new single-quarter records in company history. The memory chip market remains hot, with DRAM prices rising 30% month-on-month and NAND flash memory increasing nearly 50%. For the first time, overall revenue in the first half of the year also surpassed the 100 trillion Korean won mark.
The core confidence behind the surge in performance comes from high-value products like HBM high-end VRAM, AI server dedicated memory, and enterprise-grade SSDs, combined with the continuous rise in spot prices of general-purpose DRAM and NAND, making substantial profits.
But the capital market never looks at "goodness," only on "whether expectations are met."
Institutions originally estimated quarterly revenue of 84.1 trillion KRW and operating profit of 64.1 trillion KRW, but actual figures were 5.7% and 5.5% lower than expected, respectively. Even if the absolute value has hit a historic high, as long as it fails to meet the market's maxed-out expectations, it truly falls short of expectations.
After the earnings report was released, U.S. stock prices plunged 6% in after-hours trading. It's a bit contradictory to say. I personally hold short positions, so theoretically, a weak market should fit my position, but deep down, I really hope this earnings report will exceed expectations and surge in a strong rally.
No matter how impressive the data is, failing to meet expectations is a major flaw, and the stock price immediately responds with sharp fluctuations.
Given the current situation, the storage sector basically has no hope of a rebound this week.
Many people focus only on the high profits on the surface of financial reports, overlooking the impact of disappointing expectations in the secondary market. This round taught me a real lesson: no matter how good the fundamentals, once they can't keep up with market overdraft expectations, short-term rally will still be heavily suppressed. $SKHY After Visa's earnings call on July 28, the topic of stablecoins shifted to an easily overlooked topic: major payment networks are no longer just talking about "whether they can transfer on-chain assets," but whether stablecoins can be integrated into institutions' existing operational processes.
First, separate the timeline.
It has been confirmed that on July 16, Visa launched the Visa Stablecoin Platform (VSP), claiming it will be among the first to support Open USD access, custody, and redemption capabilities for financial institutions, fintech companies, and crypto-native institutions. Visa's investor relations page confirmed that the Q3 2026 earnings call was held on July 28. Independent media outlet Cointelegraph reported that Visa outlined its stablecoin layout during the call.
The boundaries to be confirmed must also be clarified: currently, verifiable official materials do not show that VSP was newly released on the day of the earnings meeting, nor does it prove that any user-side service has been fully launched. Directly equating "strategic sustained investment" with "available to all regions and all customers" is inaccurate.
Why does this seem more like an infrastructure issue?
1. Issuance and Redemption: Institutions need to know who is responsible for fund inflow and outflow, and what rules apply;
2. Custody and Permissions: Enterprise accounts, risk control, and operational permissions cannot be resolved by a single on-chain transfer;
3. Payment integration: If stablecoins enter merchants or cross-border processes, they must also be integrated with existing clearing, reconciliation, and compliance systems.
The direct impactors of this chain are institutions hoping to embed stablecoin capabilities into their products, rather than automatically acquiring new features for all users. Next, observe the access providers, supporting networks, regional scopes published by VSPs, and whether verifiable settlement or usage data can be provided.
Do you think the hardest part to bridge when stablecoins move toward mainstream payments is redemption and compliance, or the integration between corporate accounts and clearing systems?1. BOLL Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands are divided into upper band, middle band, and lower band. For example, $SNDK . One-hour intraday chart: pink = upper band 1256.21, yellow = middle band 1145.23 purple = lower band 1034.24 (you can set the color inside as you like; this is just an example) The prices these represent are their resistance and support levels. At the top of our screen, I drew three arrows as shown in the figure below. The prices indicated at the top of the screen have three prices, corresponding to different resistance and support levels. If the price breaks above the upper band, for example 1256.21, if you are going long, you can take partial profits first. The price will retrace near the midband. If you want to buy on dips, you can try taking positions on dips. When the price breaks below the lower band, two types of market trends are likely to occur: the first accelerates the decline, the second starts a rebound to the mid-band, stops, and then chooses to move sideways—upward or downward. The above example illustrates a one-hour candlestick chart, but we can also look at the 4-hour and daily charts. This method is simple, easy to learn, and relatively easy to get started. This can serve as your entry point for viewing support and resistance levels. #新手必看: Here is everything you need Silicon Valley's top elites are collectively falling into the "$1 Trap."
As the cost-calculating cog in a manufacturing plant, the AI financial reports from tech giants have been increasingly surreal the more I read.
Data shows that the capital expenditures on AI by these giants have skyrocketed, with an average of $1.57 spent on building data centers, buying GPUs, and paying sky-high electricity bills for every $1 in cash flow. What is this called in physical manufacturing? It is called "doing more but losing more; the more you produce, the more you lose."
Upstream: NVIDIA is making a fortune, but computing power and electricity costs remain high;
Downstream: Large model price wars have erupted, token prices have collapsed, and some have even sold "2.85 million tokens for 1 yuan";
In the middle: the giants are trapped in a prisoner's dilemma—if they don't spend money, the stock price will crash; if they do, the balance won't be settled.
The capital market is paying for the "AGI fantasy of the next 10 years," aggressively providing liquidity to the AI bubble.
#韩股重挫8%, Changxin topped the A-share market on its first day Another day of grinding, is the big move really coming!
BTC at 63,900, ETH at 1,924, basically sideways compared to yesterday. Last night it dipped to just above 62,600, then recovered a bit in the early morning, but that's about it, no clear direction.
Tonight's FOMC is the biggest hurdle, everyone is waiting.
The probability of a rate hike is 33.7%. Although not a high probability, it's tripled compared to two weeks ago. Wash came out again without giving any guidance, so the market is all guessing. If they do hike, no need to think twice, it will crash immediately. If not, there might be a short-term bounce, but don't expect it to go too high — the September rate hike expectation is already at 82%, and there's pressure ahead.
Also, the Clarity Act is basically dead. The Senate is busy pushing sanctions on Iran and Russia this week, no time to deal with this. Congress will recess on the 7th of next month, so it's completely off the table this year. The gains from the previous expectations now have to be given back little by little.
ETF data is a bit conflicting: Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of 128 million yesterday, with BlackRock alone at 200 million. But on the Ethereum side, Grayscale has been selling continuously, about 210 million a day, while other funds are buying in, the two data sets are fighting each other. Overall, the trend of money moving from BTC to ETH hasn't changed.
Technically, bears are in control now. The 64,000-64,500 range above is full of trapped longs waiting to get out, below 62,600 was just tested, if it doesn't hold, it could drop to 62,000 or even 60,000. ETH at 1,815 is critical; once broken, liquidations will be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Honestly, until tonight's event is settled, all the ups and downs are meaningless. If you have positions, don't bet on direction; if your position is heavy, it's recommended to reduce some for safety. If you're out of the market, these few hours don't matter, wait for the result. If there's a rate hike, wait to buy lower; if not, wait for a rally and then a pullback to enter. $BTC $ETH Storj entering Chapter 11 restructuring pushes token liquidation risk to the extreme, with $STORJ falling to about $0.06 reflecting extreme risk aversion among holders towards the "token-for-equity" short position commitment. The core conflict lies in the priority debt repayment order suppressing the token equity space.
Trading desk data shows $STORJ has dropped about 98% from its 2021 peak to around $0.06, reflecting secondary market positions clearing decentralized storage tokens lacking statutory priority. The project team plans to sell GPU computing assets like Valdi to repay historical debts, further stripping the token of its additional business premium.
In event-driven priority, the legal hard constraints of debt liquidation order dominate, taking precedence over management’s proposed equity conversion intentions. Additionally, the company itself holds about 30% of $STORJ reserves; if participating in the allocation, it will dilute external holders’ equity, directly suppressing risk appetite recovery.
A rebound scenario requires court approval of a restructuring plan that includes token holder distribution rights, and non-core asset sale proceeds sufficient to fully cover priority debts. Variables to watch include the auction price of Valdi assets relative to the debt gap; a failure signal would be the explicit removal of token conversion terms in the liquidation plan.
A downside scenario is based on banks and employees as priority creditors fully absorbing the residual value of the restructuring, leaving token holders with zero equity. The trigger condition is the court ruling that tokens do not have unsecured creditor status; variables to observe include the creditor priority list released at the restructuring hearing, with a failure signal being the introduction of external strategic investors injecting capital.
When the company’s approximately 30% token holdings enter the secondary market for liquidation sales, extremely low liquidity will accelerate price declines toward the bottom. If the conversion mechanism establishes a clear statutory timing and non-dilutive quota, the market’s revaluation of the legal status of decentralized assets will reshape the current scenario.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the first hearing documents accepted by the court after Chapter 11 filing and the auction intention announcement for Valdi asset disposal.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #停火预期兑现，WTI原油期货单日跌8.68% #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？Some insights on today's ETF capital inflows and outflows, market outlook, and storage sector news:
1. Bitcoin showed a positive correlation with the US stock market yesterday, but major ETF institutions barely made any moves, with only a small institution contributing a $5.1M inflow. This is not enough to create significant waves in the crypto space. Over the past four days, there has still been a net outflow of large institutional funds. Coupled with the unstable bearish atmosphere in external markets, I remain cautious and expect a downward consolidation.
2. ETH is relatively stronger compared to BTC, but it also couldn't withstand the overall market's downward trend last night, experiencing a sharp drop. However, it has strongly reclaimed the 4-hour uptrend line. ETF funds have barely moved. If a rebound is to happen, ETH is the first choice; for shorting, choose BTC.
3. SOL's ETF institutions almost completely withdrew the net inflows from the past half month yesterday (net outflow of $18.1M), indicating a rather pessimistic outlook, favoring high short positions.
4. Hype's ETF institutional funds have been overwhelmingly flowing out over the past half month, with no signs of inflows or improvement. The K-line pattern is uniformly showing a downward consolidation. Rebounds should be met with high short positions.
5. Recently, China's ChangXin Technology's IPO has indeed provided significant emotional value to the entire storage sector. On one hand, the IPO expectation has absorbed liquidity from the entire market's buying activity; on the other hand, ChangXin Technology's listing has led to a major adjustment and revaluation of the storage valuation models in both the A-share market and globally. The market shares of existing players like SKHYNIX, Micron, and SanDisk are effectively being compressed ahead of schedule. This demonstrates the rising influence and weight of Chinese technology in the global economic order, which is very positive. However, the downside is that the Korean stock market has experienced multiple circuit breakers, and US storage stocks have plummeted. Moreover, those who made money in the previous phase stubbornly hold onto storage stocks and keep urging others to "buy the dip." Money made by luck will truly be lost by skill. Personally, I think the storage sector will find it difficult to recover in the next two to three months and will at least undergo a period of consolidation and shakeout.
$SKHYNIX $BTC $SNDK #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 48-hour cross-market shock! ChangXin tops at 3.28 trillion, global storage “pricing power” faces major reshuffle
The global storage industry's pricing system has undergone unprecedented dual-end upheavals within just 48 hours. A storm of core asset revaluation is rapidly spreading from the A-shares to the US and Korean stock markets.
🇨🇳 China side: Epic IPO, precise pricing via on-chain contracts
On July 27, ChangXin Technology debuted on the STAR Market, surging 465.82% on its first day, with a total market value soaring to 3.28 trillion yuan, firmly topping the A-shares. The daily turnover exceeded 140 billion yuan, setting a record as the first A-share to break 100 billion yuan in a single day.
What caught the market’s attention most was that its closing price on the first day reached 5.66 times the issue price, almost perfectly matching the approximately 5.4 times pricing from the pre-listing on-chain pre-market contracts. This high resonance between spot and on-chain derivatives demonstrated extremely high market pricing efficiency.
🇺🇸🇰🇷 Shockwave: US and Korean stocks suffer "chain strikes"
ChangXin’s entry directly triggered a chain re-pricing of global storage assets. The shockwave spread to the US stock market the same day, with SanDisk plunging over 11%, and Micron also under pressure.
The next day, the Korean market faced a second blow. The KOSPI index dropped 8%, SK Hynix plummeted over 11% (its ADR even fell below the issue price to a historic low), and Samsung Electronics dropped over 9%. The Korean stock market had just experienced a buyer-side circuit breaker the previous week; ChangXin’s entry was undoubtedly the last straw breaking the leverage.
Core logic: Oligopoly narrative collapses, pricing power revaluation
Why can one company’s IPO trigger global panic? The core lies in market expectations. The global DRAM oligopoly pricing system dominated by the US and Korean giants is facing a long-term substantive challenge.
ChangXin Technology, as a "clear counterparty," has provided the first anchor point for revaluing the valuation premium of the "Korean twin giants narrative." Global storage is shifting from unilateral monopoly to multi-party competition, with Chinese domestic companies firmly holding the domestic base and steadily participating in the global reshuffle.
Key points to watch going forward:
1. Samsung and SK Hynix’s earnings reports this week: to see how traditional giants respond to the expectation of compressed profit margins.
2. ChangXin Technology’s next-day performance: to verify the pricing resilience of A-share capital for this protracted battle.
ChangXin’s rise to the top is the "coming-of-age" for domestic storage and the beginning of reshaping the global storage industry chain landscape. As the old oligopoly pricing system begins to loosen, a protracted battle over pricing power has just begun.The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net outflows for three consecutive trading days.
On July 23, there was a net outflow of about $225.1 million, and on July 24, about $240.1 million; As of July 27, disclosed data shows a net outflow of about $2.8 million. The total over three days is about $468 million.
"Continuous outflows" may sound bearish, but the outflow rate has dropped from over $200 million in a single day to several million dollars, which is also not to be ignored.
Therefore, the more accurate current judgment is not that "institutions are making a major retreat," but rather that there was a clear redemption in the past two days, and the selling pressure on the latest trading day has temporarily narrowed significantly.
However, some products on the 27th still show data pending updates, and the final figures may change. Today, BTC fell about 3.1%, which cannot be explained solely by ETF flows; macro events, derivatives, and spot selling pressure may all be involved. $SOL is losing key horizontal support areas, which is not a good sign. Currently, it must quickly break through this local consolidation range, or it will be difficult to challenge the range high again.
But the problem is that the recent relative strength of ETH/BTC has left SOL behind once again. Funds are clearly leaning toward the Ethereum ecosystem. Judging from market narratives and capital flows, ETH-related assets deserve more attention.
If you're still watching SOL's breakout, it's better to first look at ETH and its ecosystem tokens—the pace is clearly clearer.$CORE CoreDAO's latest post claims that 90% of Bitcoin's total hash power participates in network delegation. While this seems like a major positive, it is actually a marketing exaggeration based on a misleading statistical scope, deliberately blurring the technical essence. Now that the entire ecosystem has missed its targets, this narrative is used to cover negative news and stabilize retail investors. The breakdown is as follows:
1. What exactly is the 90% hash power? It is completely different from the public's understanding of "controlling Bitcoin's hash power."
1) Inflated statistics: The 90% refers to the total number of mining pool entities connected to the delegation function, not the real-time effective hash power actually participating in Core consensus.
On-chain monitoring shows that the real, continuous delegated hash power stabilizes at 30%-35% of the entire BTC network hash power. Leading mining pools only enable the delegation switch but do not fully authorize their hash power; in earlier years, the official external figure was only 75%. The number is artificially inflated as the market declines, purely for promotional packaging.
2) Delegation is just a marker; no hash power is actually allocated to the Core chain.
Miners do not divert mining hash power or consume extra electricity; they simply write a string of simple data in the OP_RETURN field when mining BTC blocks, equivalent to "casting a vote for Core." Bitcoin mainnet's hash power and security are completely independent; Core does not receive any computing resources, so the notion of "Bitcoin hash power protecting Core chain security" does not exist.
3) Miners align only to reap inflationary CORE rewards, with no deep binding.
The sole motivation for all mining pools to delegate is to receive the newly issued CORE tokens. There is no long-term strategic cooperation agreement; after the token price continuously declines, many small and medium mining pools have reduced their delegation ratios, and top pools like Fish Pool and Bitmain only enable the function superficially without increasing it.
2. Four real intentions behind releasing this update now:
1) The old ecosystem narratives are all invalidated, leaving only the hash power concept for promotion.
Previously, the three major profit flywheels have all stalled:
- SatPay payment has completely failed, with the promised public beta overdue in the first half of the year, no product, no transaction volume, and the buyback logic directly invalidated;
- B14G dual staking yields continue to shrink, with greater staking causing larger unrealized losses, and no discussion across the network;
- Ecosystem buybacks are completely shelved, with no on-chain secondary market buyback records.
No positive news from actual products; hash power is a technical empty talk that cannot be falsified or supported by commercial data, and is currently the only promotional material that can go viral.
2) Whitewashing negative doubts about quantitative market control and centralized dumping.
Recently, the community has solid evidence of intensive activities: repeated wash trading of equal-amount 1080 quantitative orders, the team unlocking and selling large zero-cost chips monthly, and highly centralized DAO governance.
Officially associating with Bitcoin's decentralized hash power deliberately creates the image of "distributed, no single controller, collectively endorsed by miners," diverting all doubts about dumping and market manipulation.
3) Supporting the outrageous 5U–15U get-rich narrative, laying the valuation logic, and inducing buy-ins.
Currently, coordinated online commentators uniformly promote the absurd expectation of a 5 to 15 USD price increase within half a year. This hash power post is supporting material:
First, it builds a unique moat with "90% BTC hash power backing, all miners aligned," rationalizing the ultra-high market cap expectation and achieving two layers of inducement:
1) Deeply locked-in users feel secure to hold without selling, avoiding a concentrated sell-off panic;
2) Waiting investors enter to buy the dip, absorbing the team's monthly unlocked zero-cost chips.
4) Weakening BTCFi track competitors' dominance and covering up its own ecosystem shortcomings.
In the same track, Babylon's BTC staking volume is several times that of Core, with institutional funds, developer ecosystem, and on-chain liquidity all comprehensively leading.
Deliberately hyping the 90% hash power exclusive label creates a false sense of differentiated advantage, covering Core's hard flaws: only about 5,000 BTC staked on-chain, no institutional incremental funds, and no endogenous revenue on the entire chain, weakening the pessimism caused by competitor comparisons.
Risk warning: Virtual currency trading and speculation are illegal financial activities in our country. The above is only an objective breakdown of marketing tactics and does not constitute any investment or staking advice. 📌 $SKHY SKHY Financial Report Quick Review: A Record 557% Growth—Why Is the Market Not Buying It?
After staying up late last night to watch SK Hynix's financial report, I woke up this morning to check the market. To sum it up in one sentence: explosive earnings, but the stock price keeps falling.
Let's look at the core data:
Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 256.8% year-on-year and 51% quarter-on-quarter; Operating profit was 60.54 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557.2%, setting a new historical record; The operating profit margin reached 76%, and the net profit margin was 118%.
Just looking at the numbers, this is an epic financial report. Quarterly profits have already surpassed the entire year of last year, and first-half cumulative revenue has surpassed 100 trillion Korean won for the first time.
But here's the problem—the market expects revenue to be 84 trillion yuan and operating profit to 64 trillion yuan. Actual figures were about 5% below expectations.
After the earnings report, SKHY's stock plunged from a 7% gain in after-hours trading to a 6% drop, plunging over 13% in an instant. On the 28th, South Korea's underlying stock had plunged 14.65%, dropping nearly 47% from its June high, with nearly $600 billion in market value evaporated.
Why is the market so ruthless? Three reasons:
1. Expectations are too high — even 557% growth is not enough; the market wants "exceeding expectations," not "meeting expectations."
2. Structural issues—SK Hynix's HBM proportion is too high, so it hasn't fully benefited from the price increases of conventional memory chips this round.
3. Competition Concerns — China's Memory Chip Expansion Accelerates, AI Bubble Doubts Resurface. No matter how impressive the quarterly financial report is, it's hard to pull the stock price out of a technical bear market.
So how do you view the market outlook?
On the bears' side: earnings below expectations + storage sector collapse across the board (SanDisk down over 14%, Micron down nearly 9%), short-term panic has yet to be cleared. Moreover, Samsung will release earnings reports on July 30 and Kioxia on July 31, so the risk of sector linkages remains.
On the bulls' side: HBM4 began mass production and shipments in Q2, with production expanded in the second half; Long-term contracts have been finalized with about 10 core clients; Barclays' target price is $330, while Morningstar's reasonable valuation is $160. The current price is below the IPO price of $149, down more than 32% from the peak of $194.8.
Strategy:
The negative news in the earnings report has just been released, so there's no rush to bottom-fish. First, observe whether the 128-130 low can hold. If the price drops below with increased volume, the lower levels may open up further; If it can stabilize with reduced volume at this level, consider a light position and test a long position.
The three major storage companies are in a period of intensive earnings releases, with significant volatility. In this kind of market, don't bet on financial reports—go with the capital.
Let's talk in the comments: What do you think—is SKHY a gold trap or a relay of the decline? 👇
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard. #新手必看: Everything you need is here $SPCX
Has SpaceX's stock price hit rock bottom? It's hard to say
Yesterday, after falling below 110, the stock price showed a clear rebound, especially with the storage sector $SNDK $SKHY plunging sharply. Given the market's clear concerns about AI-related investments, this rebound may lead some to question whether, after a long decline, it has truly bottomed out
My view is that the market hasn't truly reached its conclusion yet. It's hard to say whether the current market has fully priced in unlocking expectations for the coming months. After the August 4th earnings report, a large proportion of unlocking will be expected. The current market changes are largely due to short-term price and earnings tug-of-war
Currently, the market's expectation for next month's earnings is 6.9 billion yuan in Q2 revenue. My expectations are even higher, but I do not recommend betting on short-term financial reports
As always, you can build spot positions in batches these months, but it's not recommended to gamble on short-term leveraged contractsRecently, I've seen a lot of people discussing OKX. AI, but most discussions focus on the concept of "AI" itself. What I'm more concerned about is another question: If it truly develops, where will value come from? And how will it return to the entire ecosystem? So I spent some time putting OKX on OKX. The underlying logic of AI has been reorganized and organized into three diagrams, hoping to help everyone understand it more intuitively. Photo 1: Business Model OKX. In my view, AI is not just a simple AI application, but rather an AI Agent Marketplace. It connects three types of participants: User (demand side): posting tasks and purchasing AI services. ASP (Agent Service Provider): Develops, deploys, and provides AI agents. Evaluator: Participates in arbitration when disputes arise, maintaining fairness in the ecosystem. Through on-chain custody, credibility mechanisms, and settlement processes, AI services are truly transformed into digital assets that can be traded and collaborated on. Second: Sources of Value What truly deserves attention is not a single AI Agent, but how the platform continuously creates value. In my opinion, OKX. The value of AI mainly comes from several aspects: standardizing decentralized AI capabilities and lowering the barrier to use; Connecting demand and supply to improve the transaction efficiency of AI services; Through the chainThis time, OKX put options buyers' positions in a cross-position mode, which I think is even more worth watching than a new trading pair. It doesn't just set a "risk-free button" for retail investors, but rather implements a practical adjustment of the account structure: in non-combination margin accounts, users with single-currency margin and multi-currency margin can place their long position under the cross position after buying options to view and manage it below. The official announcement clearly states that the effective date is July 28, 2026, at 18:00 (UTC+8). After the update, if you buy options including RFQ / Block Trade, as long as you do not proactively specify tdMode, the buyer's leg will default to cross margin; Manually specify isolated, but you can still open isolated warehouses. The portfolio margin account remains unchanged, and the spot simple mode remains unchanged. For experienced traders, the main significance of this is not that "options suddenly become more exciting," but that account display and capital allocation have become smoother. In the past, many people trading $BTC and $ETH options were not just worried about seeing the wrong direction, but also about holding positions scattered across different models, with account equity, available margin, and leg balance not being displayed intuitively. Now, buyer positions can be displayed alongside other cross-positions, reducing the friction of switching back and forth when reviewing, assessing risk, and checking cash flow. But there's a pitfall here that must be clarified. The announcement states that cross option buyers' positions are treated as cash flow, with deductions for premiums and fees upon opening, and IMR/MMR set to 0; this is the long oNo matter how luxurious the facade design of the AAVE building is, it cannot hide the structural overload already occurring in the short-cycle load-bearing walls. Within 24 hours, prices rose 4.68%, and the short-term RSI reading surged directly to 70.4—in architectural design, this value is equivalent to forcibly adding layers before the concrete curing period ends, with deformation risk being passed on to the core tube. The short-term Bollinger Band price is at the 132th percentile, only -1.1% above the upper band, which is the warning line for the main beam approaching yield strength.
My drawings never look at exterior decoration, only on load transfer paths. The current long-term RSI value is 55.9, indicating that the foundation still has support, but short-term overbought means the cantilevered structure has entered a plastic phase and must be unloaded immediately. Entry is priced at $97.99, 2.9% higher than the current benchmark price, essentially adding a temporary reinforcement pile to the balcony edge, waiting for the pullback energy to be released. Target1 locks in $87.10 (-8.5%), which is the reasonable settlement range for the next structural layer; Target2 is at $90.03 (-5.5%), which is the rebound level of the intermediate buffer platform. The stop-loss was set at $109.29 (+14.8%). If the market forcibly builds up, it means the design plan is completely overturned, and the company must accept a loss and exit.
📉 Kong:
Entry: $97.99 (current price +2.9%)
Take profit 1: $87.10 (current price -8.5%)
Take profit 2: $90.03 (current price -5.5%)
Stop loss: $109.29 (current price +14.8%)
66% of the Bollinger Belt mid-track location told me that the building's mid-frame is still relatively stable, but cracks have already appeared in the short-cycle shear wall. Now is not the time to discuss aesthetics, but to tear down illegal constructions.This storage chip cycle is undergoing profound reshaping: on one hand, the rigid demand for high-end memory such as HBM from AI servers and data centers has broken traditional supply and demand rules. Coupled with overseas giants actively controlling general capacity and signing long-term agreements, the industry's pricing logic has shifted from "peak cycle pricing" to "profit duration pricing," with high prosperity expected to continue; on the other hand, Chinese manufacturers represented by Changxin Technology are rapidly rising with national capital support and domestic substitution dividends, accelerating their market share capture in the mid-to-low-end market and reshaping the global competitive landscape. Although domestic manufacturers have the confidence to endure a prolonged battle, the fundamental logic of the storage industry's heavy assets and strong cycles has not disappeared. With the concentrated release of new capacity in China and overseas in the coming years, the industry still faces downward pressure and price correction risks. Downstream manufacturers will benefit from cost reductions, but investors must remain highly vigilant about the potentially prolonged pain that the cycle bottom may bring. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $BEAT Now you can only close your position and test the waters, unlocking it soon
Basic unlocking information
Unlock time: August 1, 09:00 Beijing time
Total unlocked: 21.25 million tokens, accounting for 6.9% of circulating ≈
Share Composition: Community 86.3%, Foundation 13.7%
Historical reference: On July 1, unlocked at the same scale, with strong capital support and a rebound; Historical performance does not represent this trend.
1~2 days before unlocking (7.30–7.31)
Watch for early risk-off behavior: If the decline continues and the highs keep dropping, it indicates the market is worried about unlocking selling pressure in advance.
08:30–09:30 (one hour before and after unlocking, peak volatility)
Pay close attention to the strength of intraday support; don't rush to follow the crowd—wait for the direction to become clear.
4~12 hours after unlocking
Confirm whether selling pressure continues to be released: short-term decline followed by rapid stabilization = acceptable support; Continuous bearish decline = selling pressure not digested.
2~3 trading days after unlocking
Final conclusion window: After short-term sentiment is digested, prices will choose a medium-term direction.
Before the unlock, there may be sell-offs or strong rallies and sell-offs, so you can only test the waters with shallow positions$SKHYNIX Why did the stock price fall despite record-breaking financial reports? AI storage has entered a new phase
Recently, an interesting phenomenon has emerged in the storage sector.
My judgment is: SK Hynix's recent decline is not a deterioration in fundamentals, but rather a repricing of the market's overly high expectations for AI storage. Earnings reports remain strong, but investors' focus has shifted from "whether there is growth" to "whether it can continue to exceed expectations."
SK Hynix released its latest financial report, with revenue and profit continuing to grow strongly, with the core driving force still coming from HBM high-bandwidth memory.
As NVIDIA's demand for AI chips expands and AI server construction continues to advance, HBM has become the most important growth direction in the current storage industry.
But why did the stock price adjust despite the good performance?
The reason is that the market traded too much in advance with expectations.
Over the past year, the AI wave drove the semiconductor sector higher, with storage companies like SK Hynix and Micron benefiting significantly.
Funds are looking forward not only to profit growth, but to consistently exceed expectations.
When actual performance is excellent but does not significantly exceed the market's highest expectations, some funds choose to take profits and exit.
This is also why many tech stocks see "positive news materialized" after earnings reports.
From an industry logic perspective, the trend of AI storage has not changed.
In the coming years, as AI model scales expand and data center construction increases, higher-performance storage support will be required.
HBM, high-end DRAM, and advanced packaging remain key directions for the semiconductor industry.
But investors also need to pay attention to new changes.
First, can AI capital spending be sustained?
Companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to invest in AI infrastructure. If investment slows in the future, the market may reassess storage needs.
Second, whether the storage price cycle will continue.
The storage industry has always been cyclical: rising demand drives companies to expand production, while increased supply may bring price pressure.
Third, changes in the global storage competitive landscape.
Korean companies currently have an advantage in the high-end storage sector, but as the domestic storage industry develops, future competition will become even fiercer.
My viewpoint:
This adjustment by SK Hynix seems more like the market moving from speculating on expectations to focusing on performance.
The long-term logic for AI storage still exists, but future gains will no longer be driven by simple concepts; instead, companies will need to continuously demonstrate their growth capabilities.
What truly deserves attention is not who stands at the AI front, but who can turn AI demand into long-term profits. #财报观察员: OKX MasterClass premieres tonight, guiding you through the financial reports of the four tech giants $SKHYNIX When the dollar hardens, risk assets collectively shrink, and the market is waiting for someone to raise the white flag first—staring at the $DXY. Once it shows weakness, the window arrives.
Look at the numbers
$BTC 63,208 -3.19% $ETH 1,875 -4.56%
$QQQ -0.31% $SPY +0.02% $IBIT +1.16%
$DXY +0.01% $GLD +0.73%
Speaking of the situation, crude oil and Hormuz are still stirring up inflation expectations, while US Treasuries and Fed expectations continue to suppress valuations. Once the AI/semiconductor switch is closed, the $SOXL -21.8% are like a mass collapse, while $SNDK -19.4% $MU -11.2% have also been slashed. Sentiment is spreading faster than expected.
Carry them one by one. $BTC -3.19% didn't crash, $ETH -4.56% just retreated directly. The funds holding firm are stronger, and it's clear who can withstand the blows. $QQQ It only fell 0.31%. It looks like it can hold up, but if you let it lead the team forward, it can't move forward. Interestingly, $IBIT +1.16%. Some people bought in ETFs, but some took the back when the spot market crashed. $DXY was down 0.01%, but if this breath is not relaxed, risk assets have to bow their heads. $GLD Up 0.73%. Gold hasn't left, safe-haven funds haven't withdrawn, but not all of it has flowed in yet.
Whoever shows weakness first sets the direction. Don't rush into the market. Wait until the $DXY can't hold or $BTC can't hold 63k before making a move. Betting on over/under now is too much of a loss.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议🔥 OKX Planet Night Talk | SanDisk Drops 14% Overnight: Retail Investors Line Up to "Catch Flying Knives," Skating Laughs in the Sky, Analyst William Analyzes Professionally—After Reading, You'll Know Why the Drop Happens? What will SanDisk do next?
On July 28, SanDisk (SNDK) plunged 14.53% in a single day, closing at $1,092.47.
The entire storage sector has collectively jumped off buildings: Micron fell nearly 9%, Western Digital fell over 8%, Seagate dropped over 8%, and Kioxia ADR dropped over 10%.
In the first half of the year, SanDisk's gains were about 858%, making it the top performer in the S&P 500.
Family, tonight, there were two voices in the group:
• Retail investors: "Cut in half!" A golden pit! Increase your position! " 💪
• Institution: "Quietly retreating ......" 🧊
As someone who's been through it, I have to pour cold water on it: in the logic behind retail investors' recent long positions, there are three fatal naiveties. 😱
------
🎭 Naivety One: "If it drops too much, it should rise"—you mistake "expensive" for "cheap"
SanDisk rose 858% in the first half of the year, with a cumulative increase of 760% since the spin-off and listing
Is it now down 14%? It still stands at a high point with an astonishing increase this year. It's like Hermès bags at a 10% discount—it's still Hermès, not street vendor goods.
Let's look at the valuation:
• Price-to-book ratio: 11.74 times
• Dynamic P/E ratio of 27.85 times
• As a highly cyclical product, the storage industry has a reasonable PE of only 8-10 times
Retail investors see "discounted luxury goods," while institutions see "still too expensive haute couture." The process of valuation compression is far longer and more brutal than you might imagine.
💡 You might think you're bottom-fishing, but you might be catching the knife halfway up the mountain.
------
🎭 Naive Two: "AI storage demand remains, SanDisk will definitely rise"—the narrative is being questioned by the market
The long-term logic of AI storage remains intact, but the short-term narrative is being undermined:
Trigger 1: Meta is reportedly considering selling excess cloud computing capacity. The market instantly interpreted it as—AI capital spending by leading tech giants may have peaked! Big bear Eisman issued a direct warning: once leading companies cut back on AI capital spending, U.S. stocks are very likely to pull back sharply.
Trigger 2: Goldman Sachs expects that by 2026, capital expenditure by hyperscale cloud providers will rise to about 100% of operating cash flow—meaning all cash flow will be invested in AI infrastructure. Morgan Stanley is more direct: funds may rotate from semiconductors to cloud computing, and the "AI main theme" will shift from "buying everything" to "focusing on cash flow and returns."
Trigger 3: Samsung and SK Hynix are expanding production at the 100 billion level, and the market is beginning to worry about NAND oversupply after 2027.
Retail investors' cognitive trap: equating "the track has long been right" with "buying now." But market transactions have never been about "whether there is demand," but about "whether demand growth matches the current exaggerated valuation."
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🎭 Naive Three: "A crash will surely rebound, go all in!" "— Sector-specific chips loosen, not individual stock shakeouts
Just a glance at the market makes it clear:
• SanDisk fell over 8% in pre-market trading, Western Digital fell over 7%, Micron fell over 7%, Seagate fell over 6%, and SK Hynix fell over 5%
• This is a simultaneous collapse of the entire storage sector, not a single pullback by SanDisk
What does the mass suicide by the district mean? This means institutional profit-taking is concentrated and fleeing. SanDisk rose 858% in the first half of the year, with institutions making huge profits. Now, taking advantage of the high levels before the earnings report, they are taking profits.
What's even more heartbreaking is the internal divisions on Wall Street:
• Among 29 institutions, 77% still rate "Buy," but target prices range greatly from a low of $1,000 to a high of $3,169
• The average target price is $2,363.65, indicating that institutions also believe there is room for the next 12 months
• But Goldman Sachs set a target price of $1,200, Susquehanna saw $3,250—such a huge divergence itself signals uncertainty
------
🎯 What do you think comes next? Keep a close eye on two days
I won't give fake predictions of "certain rises and falls"; I'll only tell you about the truly important time window:
📅 August 5: SanDisk Q4 financial report
Market expectations for revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion, earnings per share of $30 to $33, and gross margin as high as 79%-81%. This is a critical moment for whether the positive news is fully released or the "unexpectedly triggered" moment. In the Q3 financial report, revenue surged 251% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 78.4%. If Q4 continues to deliver on this promise, the stock price is likely to reignite; If it falls short of expectations, then it's a whole different story.
📅 August 13: SanDisk Investor Day
The company will disclose detailed progress on long-term supply agreements. Currently, a minimum contract revenue of $42 billion has been signed, along with $11 billion in financial commitments. This meeting decided whether SanDisk is a "cyclical stock" or a "new business model stock" in terms of valuation.
------
🪞 Words from veteran players
SanDisk's long-running story is far from over. The AI storage supercycle, the capacity advantage of the joint venture with Kioxia, and the $42 billion long-term contract—these are real moats.
However, between "long-term optimism" and "going long now," there are two hurdles:
1. Does the current valuation still need further compression?
2. With the August 5 earnings report + August 13 investor day, can they deliver on the market's extremely high expectations?
The naivety of retail investors lies in simplifying "long-term bullishness" into "buy now, buy more as it falls." The wisdom of institutions lies in the fact that the same target at different prices means completely different trades.
⚠️ If you're already trapped: never add leverage to dilute costs during a downturn—that's a dead end.
If you want to enter the market new: wait for the August 5th earnings report to be released and let the bullets fly for a while.
If you are trading contracts/leverage: The current volatility is extremely high, so keep leverage within 2x, and set your stop-loss at the previous low.
A true Alpha is not in the thrill of "grabbing a rebound," but in the patience of "waiting for the right side." It rose 858% in the first half of the year, not missing a rebound in just one or two days. Once the financial report is delivered and the direction becomes clear, then we can compete with the growth players!
Follow me! Feel free to ask questions! Distinguish expectations: small losses but big gains!
#韩股重挫8%, Changxin tops A-shares for the first day. #英伟达拟为OpenAI提供2500亿美元担保 #停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% $SNDK $MU in a single day DeFi Dad went looking for proof Lighter is undervalued vs Hyperliquid.
The fee data didn't cooperate, but he explains why he's bullish anyway:
"I'm a positive-sum bull, bullish on both. But the best part about Lighter is the escape hatch to Ethereum."
"We pulled the last 30 days of fees on both. We were kind of hoping Lighter would look clearly undervalued."
"It wasn't that clean. Hyperliquid was doing 20 to 30x the fees the day we looked. But at a ~$1.5B FDV, I still think there's mispricing, because that guarantee to get back to Ethereum isn't in the number."1️⃣ 8:00 PM Hynix Q2 earnings; next day at 4:00 AM, META, Microsoft, Qualcomm earnings. These earnings reports reflect the fundamentals and development stage of AI;
2️⃣ Tomorrow early morning, the Federal Reserve FOMC and Powell's press conference. This looks at the final results and market positioning deviations, serving as macro guidance. Any deviation will be corrected;
When things are very good, any small flaw is a reason for deterioration; when things are very bad, any small positive is an excuse for recovery. So, when do you think we are now? [SanDisk Plunge Analysis]
Many people confuse the sectors: Changxin produces DRAM memory, SanDisk mainly deals in NAND flash memory, so there is no direct competition in the short term.
Changxin's IPO fundraising for capacity expansion has triggered market concerns about the collapse of the global storage oligopoly pricing system, leading to a collective valuation sell-off across the entire storage sector.
Coupled with SanDisk's previous huge gains from the AI rally, a large number of profit-taking investors fled on the news.
The essence of the market: expectations lead, trading anticipates future industry profit decline risks, rather than current performance damage.
Disclaimer: Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice Less than a year after being acquired, Storj has filed for bankruptcy.
On July 26, this decentralized storage project founded in 2014 filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization in a U.S. court. Storj attributed the cause to historical debts, stating that the network and customer services will continue to operate normally, while preparing to sell non-core assets such as the GPU computing power business Valdi, refocusing on its core storage business.
This reorganization also includes a rare arrangement in the crypto space. Storj plans to design a mechanism allowing $STORJ holders to participate in the equity distribution of the reorganized company. Simply put, it attempts to convert tokens into legally protected company shares.
However, so far there is only a promise. The company has not disclosed who can participate, the exchange ratio, or whether snapshots or lock-ups are required. The plan still needs approval from creditors and the court.
But to get equity, one must first see how many creditors are ahead in line. After the company’s bankruptcy, employees, banks, and other creditors have priority. Only if there is residual value after settling these debts might token holders receive equity.
Storj itself holds about 30% of the $STORJ tokens. If the tokens held by the company can also be converted, how equity is divided between management and external holders will become a new issue. After the announcement, $STORJ fell to about $0.06, down approximately 98% from its 2021 peak.
This reorganization by Storj aims to answer a long-standing question in the crypto world: when a project company goes bankrupt, what exactly are the tokens in your wallet?
If debts are fully paid and something remains, they might become equity.
If nothing is left, "token-for-equity" is just a check with no balance. 美股已经阶段性见顶
加密人进美股成了狂热的最后一棒！
Q4是抄底的最好阶段
伴随着美股见顶调整BTC迎来最后一跌！
这轮我最庆幸的就是六月以后一直看空美股，为啥，因为我的好兄弟们都已经进入美股了，连他们都进来了可不就是见顶的标志嘛？
所以，尽管他们在美股偶尔转钱我一直忍住了诱惑，不然我为数不多的资金又蛋疼了！
更值得警惕的是资金情绪。
当越来越多加密投资者开始涌入美股，把科技股当成新的财富密码，这往往是周期后期的典型特征。
如果纳指进入调整，BTC很难完全独立，当美股流动性收缩时
$BTC
可能成为第一批被抛售的资产。
我的判断：Q4可能是今年重要的抄底窗口。
美股如果出现一次深度调整，反而可能完成风险释放，BTC也可能迎来最后一跌，洗掉高杠杆和浮躁资金为下一阶段行情重新蓄力。
市场最危险的时候，不是没人看多，而是所有人都觉得，这一次不一样。$BTC Want to ask Gate: Are the facts as you describe?
The 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD paid by our side first flowed into third-party wallets, after which Gate Alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens. The platform refused to disclose the personnel and process for this listing, and the assets were then transferred from third-party wallets to Gate Alpha for airdrop.
All transfer hashes are traceable, and evidence is publicly available for verification.
After the project completed payment and successfully went live for trading, the platform unilaterally claimed that the communication and liaison personnel were external scammers.
The project ultimately successfully listed on Gate Exchange. This explanation alone cannot dispel all doubts; this matter has seriously damaged Gate's market credibility. We demand a transparent and complete official response.Institutional entry = positive news? I only recognize half; the other half is retail investors being used as liquidity
Whenever news comes about a listed company buying another amount of ETH and a net inflow into BlackRock IBIT, the comment section is flooded with positive news realizing and confirming a bull market.
But if you look at the negative examples from recent years, this equation actually has a big flaw:
1. Institutions are not here to give money; they are here to arbitrage and exit
The most classic is the Grayscale GBTC. Before converting to a spot ETF in January 2024, it was an openly marketed whale by institutions; after switching to an ETF, it became a source of sustained selling pressure—early share unlocking + high fees for low fees, GBTC saw a cumulative net outflow of several billion USD. BTC didn't follow institutional entry and instead was hit by a pullback.
The first move institutions make when entering is often to cash out profits from their old positions.
2. Institutional endorsement for Treasury Shares (DAT) turns into retail investors taking over
Last year, SharpLink (SBET) raised 425 million ETH from PIPE funding from institutions like Consensys and Pantera, with the narrative maxing out, and its stock price soared from $3 to $124.
As a result, as soon as the S-3 registration documents were released (PIPE shares could be resold), after-hours flash crashes by 70%; Later, when ETH pulled back, SBET's stock price dropped over 80% from its peak, and its ETH holdings suffered a floating loss of nearly $1.8 billion, with the stock trading at a long-term discount to ETH's net asset value.
Institutions are trading at discounts to buy chips→ driving narratives→ retail investors chase wealth stocks→ and institutions reduce their positions and resell. This is not a positive news cycle, but a structural harvest.
3. ETF net inflows ≠ coin prices are bound to rise
There was a similar incident in July 2026: IBIT saw net inflows for several consecutive days, but GBTC+FBTC were simultaneously outflowing, Coinbase's premium was negative for 50 consecutive days, and BTC fell to around 62,000 as it should have fallen.
Institutions are plural, not singular. If A builds positions while B withdraws, the total asset may be net outflow.
My own judgment:
• Institutions are turning crypto into a versatile asset through the long term, reducing the risk of zeroing out—this is truly a positive factor
• But in the short term, every news entry by institutions may already be: before PIPE unlocked, GBTC in replacement, before treasury stock ATM issuances, or when ETF funds lag behind derivatives reductions
• Retail investors treat institutions as long leaders, while institutions treat retail investors' recognition of positive news as liquidity exits
So now, when I see XX institutions buying, my first reaction isn't to rush, but to ask three questions:
(1) Does the carrier he bought (ETF/Treasury stock/PIPE) have unlocking/resale/redemption mechanisms?
(2) Is there anyone in the same type of institution who is backflowing out?
(3) Did the coin price already rise before this news came out (expected overdraft)?
Brothers in the crypto world, when was the last time you got hit by institutional positive news on the mountaintop?CORE CoreDAO's latest announcement claims that 90% of Bitcoin's total network hash rate participates in network delegation, which seems like a major positive. However, upon analysis, it's all just a textual packaging tactic.
The actual effective delegated hash rate on-chain only accounts for 35% of Bitcoin's total network; the 90% figure is an exaggerated statement based on statistics of mining pool support features. The so-called hash rate delegation is merely a block containing a line of marking; Bitcoin's hash rate is not diverted, nor does it provide security backing for the Core chain. Miners participate only to receive inflationary CORE tokens.
The project chose to release the hash rate narrative at this moment with a very clear intention to stabilize: the three major profit flywheels—SatPay, B14G, and ecosystem buybacks—have all missed deadlines, with no positive landing announcements. They can only rely on unverifiable underlying technical concepts to flood the discourse; meanwhile, they hedge against negative doubts about quantitative trading wash sales and large token unlock sell-offs, shaping a decentralized persona, and promoting a network-wide narrative of a 5-15 USD sky-high price expectation within half a year.
Compared to competitors in the BTCFi sector like Babylon, Core chain lags behind comprehensively in on-chain BTC staking volume, institutional funds, and on-chain activity. The hash rate concept cannot compensate for the core issues of an ecosystem with no revenue and continuous inflationary selling pressure. Do not be misled by grand technical narratives into increasing positions or bottom-fishing.
Risk warning: Virtual currency trading speculation is an illegal financial activity in our country. This content only objectively analyzes the project's marketing narrative and does not constitute any holding, staking, or trading advice.He glanced at the account and almost threw his phone out! $SNDK Long position, 10x cross-margin position, opening price 1108, marking price 1123, fully maxed unrealized profit!! The floating profit of over 100 was right there. I stared at the screen, stunned for a long time without moving. This round of profits was really ridiculous. I just woke up and opened the app, and it took off. I was still wondering what happened. But when I saw the news, I understood everything: the US and Iran have ceasefired. Brent crude oil plunged nearly 5%, from over $100 per barrel to 92. Once inflation expectations cooled, the Fed's confidence in raising rates lost their confidence. Do you know what the market is betting on right now? The Fed held a meeting this week, and the probability of rate hikes was hyped up from nearly 40%, but now it's falling back. If the high interest rate environment really stops, the first to take off will be tech stocks and risk assets. But honestly, SNDK's drop like this isn't without reason. It's the company that makes NAND flash and solid-state drives. Previously, it was the one that got hit hardest. On one hand, Chinese memory chip maker CXMT just went public and raised $8 billion, and Apple has even declared it will buy their chips—this stab directly into SanDisk's artery. On the other hand, The market is now starting to have doubts about the massive investment in AI infrastructure: will data centers still buy so many storage devices? Will capital expenditures be cut? So don't be fooled by its strong rebound; essentially, it fell too deeply earlier, then caught macro positive signals and institutions just bought back positions. My long position opened at a decent level, with a stop-loss set at 981, and if it breaks, I exit; and a take-profit at 170韩国股市一天跌了10.84%，AI芯片这笔账开始重新算了
今天韩国股市真的把我看懵了。
KOSPI收盘暴跌10.84%，盘中最大跌幅达到11.29%，还触发了熔断。三星电子收跌13.39%，SK海力士跌了14.65%。
日本日经225指数也跌了接近4%，台湾加权指数跌4.7%。今天被卖得最狠的，基本都是过去一年最热门的AI和半导体股票。
我一开始也以为，今天主要是市场在担心美国科技公司烧钱太多。把新闻都看完以后，韩国这次暴跌还有几个更直接的导火索。
长鑫科技上市首日暴涨，让市场重新担心中国存储芯片公司的竞争。一则关于中国国产DUV芯片设备开始量产的报道，也进一步刺激了这种担忧。
再加上三星和SK海力士前面涨得太多，韩国还有不少跟踪这两家公司股票的杠杆ETF。市场一旦开始跌，杠杆产品又会把波动继续放大。
所以今天这轮暴跌，很难只用一个原因解释。但AI资本开支到底什么时候回本，确实已经成了市场绕不开的问题。前两年谷歌、微软、Meta只要宣布增加数据中心和芯片投入，市场通常都会很兴奋，觉得AI需求又要爆了。
现在大家看到这种新闻，第一反应变成了：怎么还要加钱？到底要烧多少？什么时候才能回本？
Alphabet $GOOGL 上周刚把今年资本开支预期提高到1950亿至2050亿美元。第二季度资本开支达到449亿美元，自由现金流转成了负59亿美元。
同一季度，Google Cloud收入增长了82%，说明AI和云业务的需求确实还在。只是钱花出去的速度，比现金赚回来的速度更快。公司生意没有突然变差，市场只是没有以前那么愿意等了。
以前只要证明AI有需求，投资者就愿意给高估值。现在还得继续证明，这些需求最后真的能变成利润和现金。三星和SK海力士今天跌这么多，也不代表两家公司一天之内变差了十几个点。它们处在AI存储产业链的核心位置，前面涨得多，仓位也很拥挤。现在又碰上中国厂商竞争、估值过高和杠杆资金减仓，股价自然会先挨刀。
今天的行情也顺便说明，科技股大跌的时候，加密资产很难保证自己完全不受影响。
亚洲早盘，$BTC 一度下跌2.3%至63414美元附近，$ETH 跌了3.6%。资金真要减风险时，通常会先卖流动性好的资产。这个时候芯片股和主流币完全可能被放进同一个卖出篮子里。
后面这波能不能稳住，还是要看生意本身。三星和SK海力士的订单有没有减少，存储价格和利润率会不会松；谷歌、微软这些公司花出去的钱，能不能慢慢从云业务和AI产品里赚回来。订单没掉，现金流也慢慢跟上，那今天更像是前面涨得太多，现在集中挤一遍泡沫。
要是中国厂商继续抢市场，AI资本开支还越烧越多，回本时间一直往后拖，芯片股的估值还得继续往下算，币圈也别想完全躲开。
现在还不能直接说AI需求不行了。能确定的是，市场已经没有以前那么好说话。大家前面为AI付了很高的价格，现在开始催这些公司拿出成绩单了。鹰派维持观望态度使BTC明天的下行风险依然存在。Polymarket大约有四分之三的概率预测维持不变，四分之一的概率预测加息0.25个百分点。维持观望仍保留紧缩的选择权，因此短期利率仍可能上升。BTC在7月28日晚间徘徊于63,900美元附近，接近七天低点，这一疲软也与韩国股市暴跌及参议院搁置《加密清晰法案》同时发生。如果决议后短期利率上升，BTC的首次反弹很可能被抛售，下行趋势仍被看好。$BTC "DataHunter US Stock Research Report" · July 29, 2026
Understanding the Market Through Data
📋 Summary of This Issue
US stocks closed Tuesday continuing an extreme divergence pattern: the Dow Jones rose over 500 points to a new high, the Nasdaq fell for the fourth consecutive day, and chip stocks were bloodied. Apple's intraday market cap surpassed $5 trillion for the first time, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.49%. Oil prices continued to decline, the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.645%, but the market remained cautious ahead of the FOMC decision. Wall Street is undergoing a rare capital migration—from a full exit of AI hardware to a surge into traditional economy and consumer sectors.
📊 1. Market Review
The three major US indices showed mixed gains and losses, with the gap between the Dow and Nasdaq widening further:
· Dow Jones: up 537.24 points (+1.03%), closing at 52,747.32
· S&P 500: up 15.60 points (+0.21%), closing at 7,428.78
· Nasdaq: down 55.17 points (-0.22%), closing at 24,876.91, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of decline
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.49%, down over 25% from its June peak. The divergence between the Dow and Nasdaq is rare in recent years.
💻 2. The Big Seven Tech Giants: Apple Reigns, Nvidia Bloodied
Severe divergence appeared among the big seven tech giants:
Apple (AAPL): up 0.94%, intraday market cap surpassed $5 trillion, becoming the first company globally to reach this milestone. It has gained 25% year-to-date, outperforming all leading tech stocks. Apple maintains low capital expenditure, relying more on Google Cloud infrastructure rather than burning cash on AI like other giants—the market is rewarding "restraint."
Nvidia (NVDA): intraday plunged nearly 5%, the largest single-day drop since June 5. Dragged down by doubts over "circular financing" and rumors of "a $250 billion guarantee to OpenAI."
Google (GOOGL): up 2.19%. Tesla (TSLA): down 0.58%. Microsoft (MSFT): up 1.09%. Amazon (AMZN): down 0.23%. Meta (META): down 0.08%.
SpaceX (SPCX): up 2.63%, closing at $116.41.
🔪 3. Chip Stocks: Bloodbath, SK Hynix Below IPO Price
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.49%, with storage chips and optical communication sectors hit hardest:
· SanDisk (SNDK): down over 14%, halved from its high
· Kioxia ADR: down over 14%, down more than 57% from late June highs
· SK Hynix (SKHY): down over 8%, below its US IPO issue price
· AMD: down over 8%
· Micron Technology (MU): down over 8%
· Intel (INTC): down over 5%
AI hardware stocks have been systemically sold for the fourth consecutive trading day. Roundhill Storage ETF (DRAM) closed down 8.89%. Corning fell over 12%, Coherent dropped over 10%. Capital is fully withdrawing from the AI infrastructure sector.
🛢️ 4. Macro: Oil Prices Continue to Fall, but FOMC Is the Real Focus
Oil prices: Brent crude plunged 9.26% to $87.82/barrel, WTI down 8.19% to $82.00/barrel. The direct cause was Trump's statement that the US and Iran are having "good talks," raising market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
US Treasuries: 10-year yield fell 3.2 basis points to 4.645%.
Dollar Index: slightly up 0.07% to 101.54.
The oil price drop is positive but completely overshadowed by the FOMC. IC Markets noted that historically, a sharp oil price drop should trigger a US stock rebound, but none occurred last night—investors are fully focused on tomorrow morning's FOMC decision.
🏛️ 5. FOMC: The Most Difficult Meeting to Predict in Nearly a Decade
The Federal Reserve's July meeting was held July 28-29 Eastern Time, with the rate decision to be announced at 2:00 AM Beijing Time on July 30 (Thursday).
CME data shows: 63.7% probability of holding rates steady, 36.3% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
A 36% chance of a rate hike means the market does not see "no change" as a done deal. The meeting is called "the hardest to predict in recent years" by multiple institutions. The divergence stems from Waller's abandonment of forward guidance, making each meeting a "real-time" adjustment. Bianco Research's president said: "No forward guidance means we will frequently see probability distributions of 20%, 30%, 40%."
🔄 6. Mapping to Crypto Assets
BTC currently around $63,500, under pressure for several days. Over 130,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours, totaling $605 million. BTC briefly fell below $63,000 during US stock hours, the first time since July 17.
The extreme divergence of US stocks—Dow up, Nasdaq down—reflects a risk appetite contraction transferring to the crypto market. Traditional economy sectors are favored while tech stocks are sold off. Investors are reassessing the impact of a higher interest rate environment on risk assets.
📝 7. Summary
The market is at a crossroads of three intertwined narratives:
First, massive capital migration. A full exit from AI hardware into consumer and traditional economy sectors. Apple's market cap surpassing $5 trillion and SanDisk halving are happening simultaneously in the same market.
Second, FOMC looming. A 36% chance of a rate hike means anything can happen tomorrow morning. The uncertainty premium of the Waller era is fully priced in.
Third, geopolitical easing but unresolved. The oil price plunge is positive, but the Strait of Hormuz has not truly reopened.
At 2:00 AM tomorrow, all will be revealed.
Risk Warning: This article is a research note and does not constitute investment advice.
DataHunter | Understanding the Market Through Data#停火预期兑现, WTI crude oil futures fell 8.68% in a single day
What happened?
WTI crude oil futures plunged 8.68% in a single day, marking the largest single-day drop this year. Brent crude plunged 8.7% simultaneously, closing at $88.36 per barrel. The cumulative decline over the past few trading days has been even more astonishing.
Why the crash?
The direct trigger was the U.S. suspension of military operations against Iran. On the 25th, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes against Iran that day, ending the nearly two-week, 13-day daily strike campaign. Trump stated that the United States is negotiating with Iran to end the Middle East conflict.
The geopolitical risk premium previously established by the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East is rapidly evaporating. The market is trading in the "expectation of a reduction in supply risk," rather than actual supply recovery—the shipping bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz have not been fully resolved.
What do you think comes next?
Institutions are generally skeptical of a ceasefire. Energy analysis institutions such as Nordic Sian Bank and PVM believe that this round of temporary ceasefires without substantive agreement support is not sustainable. Iran stated that there are currently no direct negotiations with the United States, and only communication is maintained through Oman regarding the issue of navigation through the strait. WTI crude oil is currently seeking support near $80.
Macroeconomic impact:
The sharp drop in oil prices has directly penetrated the inflation narrative—one of the core factors suppressing rate cut expectations in recent months has been energy prices. If oil prices can hold steady in the coming weeks, August inflation data will improve significantly, opening up room for the Fed to comment on Thursday.
In short: Geopolitical risk premiums are rapidly clearing away, but the ceasefire is only a "verbal signal" rather than a "written agreement"—the risk of an oil price rebound has not been eliminated. $CL $BZ #财报观察员：OKX大师课今晚开播，带你看懂四大科技巨头财报
When will the earnings reports of the four major tech giants be released?
This week is the "Super Earnings Week." The specific schedule:
Microsoft: July 29 (Wednesday) after market close
Meta: July 29 (Wednesday) after market close
Apple: July 30 (Thursday)
Amazon: July 30 (Thursday)
What is the market focusing on?
There is only one core question: With so much money spent on AI, has it actually paid off?
By 2026, the combined AI capital expenditure of Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta is expected to be about $725 billion. Meta's capital expenditure will surge from $70 billion in 2025 to $125-145 billion in 2026. Amazon's free cash flow has dropped close to zero, and Microsoft's stock buybacks have fallen to a ten-year low.
Wall Street's patience is wearing thin. Last week's Google earnings report already sparked doubts about the ROI of AI investments. If the earnings reports of Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon show that huge investments have yet to bring significant returns, tech stock valuations may face a new round of pressure.
What will the OKX Masterclass focus on?
Tonight's OKX Masterclass centers on the theme "Earnings Observer," with the key points helping investors understand: Have the capital expenditure guidance of the four giants been adjusted? Can AI business revenue growth match the scale of investment? Will demand for storage chips (directly related to Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) slow down due to the giants cutting back on data center construction?
In short: Tonight's earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta are the midterm exam of the "AI arms race"—whether they pass or fail will determine the direction of the entire tech sector going forward. $MSFT $META $AAPL Last Friday, the U.S. officially announced the latest tariff rates for the Section 301 investigation covering 60 countries and regions worldwide. Not at the negotiating table, not at a media briefing, but directly issuing documents. Sixty countries, the same "notice." When most people saw this news, their first reaction was: tariffs added again? Then they swiped it away. But what really gave me chills wasn't the tariff figures themselves. It was the way this happened. This isn't a trade friction, it's a redrawing of the financial landscape. Think about it—the U.S. issuing tariff standards to 60 countries simultaneously, what does that mean? It means it's no longer negotiating one by one. It used to be "I'll negotiate with you, you negotiate with him," but now it's "I'll set the rules, you handle it yourselves." This is no longer a negotiation posture, but a notification gesture. PGIM's chief economist said something interesting: today's trade policy has shifted from "bargaining" to "drawing lines and taking sides." The key is not tariffs. The key lies in the settlement logic behind the tariffs. For decades, global trade had a default underlying system: dollar settlement, SWIFT channels, and the US banking system acting as intermediaries. All cross-border money basically had to "pass through" the US. But now, this system is being torn apart by two forces simultaneously. One is US sanctions and tariffs. When the US uses tariffs as weapons and SWIFT as weapons, other countries start trying to "detour." You can't use a system where you could be kicked out at any time for long-term planning. Also,