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#财报观察员：AMD and SpaceX Reports Are Imminent, Circle Takes the Spotlight
🔥 Earnings season "Big Three" reports, three sectors, three destinies
This week marks the peak of earnings season, with three reports hitting the table simultaneously—AMD (AI chip challenger), SpaceX (the largest IPO in history), and Circle (the first stablecoin public company). Three completely different sectors, three completely different report cards, revealing the core market theme for the second half of the year.
🖥️ AMD: Is the "Challenger" to Nvidia Truly Qualified?
AMD’s Q2 earnings report will be released tonight (August 4), and market expectations are already high: revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year; net profit of $1.75 billion, doubling.
But the problem is, AMD’s valuation is already maxed out. A market cap of 790 billion with a TTM P/E ratio of 159x—this isn’t buying performance, it’s buying the narrative of the "Nvidia challenger."
The real highlight of this earnings report isn’t the revenue numbers, but whether the data center business can accelerate further. Data centers already drove most of the growth in Q1, but the mass production progress of the Helios chip and the MI400 series’ ability to chip away at Nvidia’s B-series are the keys to whether AMD can move from being a "backup" to a main player.
On the other hand, the PC business is a hidden risk. Global PC shipments are weak in recovery; if data centers exceed expectations but PCs drag behind, the stock price might rise first then fall. Conversely, if both segments explode, AMD might truly challenge Nvidia’s moat.
My view: AMD’s data this quarter likely won’t be bad, but "good" and "good enough" are different. A 159x P/E means the market demands "stunning," not "okay." Expect significant post-market volatility tonight; those betting on the earnings report should buckle up.
🚀 SpaceX: Can a $1.95 Trillion Valuation Hold?
SpaceX IPO’d on June 12 at $135 per share, peaked at $225, and has now dropped to $149, a 34% pullback.
This earnings report (expected this week) might be the most watched new report this year. Why? Because SpaceX’s valuation controversy is absurdly large.
Looking at fundamentals:
- Full-year 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, net loss of $4.94 billion
- Q1 2026 single quarter revenue of $4.694 billion, net loss of $4.276 billion
- The only profitable segment is Starlink (2025 revenue $11.4 billion); rocket launches and xAI are burning cash
- Institutional consensus: profitability possible only by 2028
Valuation:
- Current market cap $1.95 trillion, 2026 expected price-to-sales ratio of 52x
- Nvidia’s PS is only 24x, Microsoft’s 10x
- Investment bank price targets vary wildly: optimists see $205–$300, conservatives $58–$78, extreme bears $30
More trouble: employee and early investor shares will unlock at the end of August, causing circulating shares to multiply several times in Q4, leading to expected selling pressure.
SpaceX’s story is indeed compelling—10 million Starlink subscribers, $22 billion government contracts, Starship’s Mars ambitions. But a $1.95 trillion valuation means the market is pricing it as the "Apple of space." The problem is, Apple earns $100 billion annually, SpaceX loses over $10 billion annually. This gap can’t be bridged by storytelling.
My view: short-term bearish. The unlocking wave, ongoing losses, and valuation bubble are heavy burdens. Unless the earnings report is an "outperformance of outperformance," the stock price will likely remain under pressure. Long-term investors can wait for valuation to return to a reasonable range.
💵 Circle: The "Regulatory Dividend" for Stablecoins Has Arrived
Circle’s Q2 earnings report will be released pre-market on August 5 (tomorrow), and it’s the easiest of the three to be underestimated.
Key points:
- USDC circulation: about $77 billion in Q1, slightly down to about $73 billion in Q2, reserve income supported by interest rates
- Distribution costs: signed an agreement with Hyperliquid in May, renewing with Coinbase in August; will the revenue share be squeezed?
- Biggest catalyst: obtained a national trust bank charter from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on July 10, potentially bringing $20 million in additional annual income; more importantly, Circle officially entered the core of the regulated financial system
The stablecoin sector is undergoing a critical turning point. The CLARITY Act progress, bank charter approvals, and traditional financial institutions beginning to integrate USDC—these are not short-term hype but structural dividends. Circle’s management maintains a long-term CAGR growth expectation of 40% for USDC, and although the market is skeptical, regulatory breakthroughs are indeed raising the ceiling.
My view: Circle has the highest "certainty" among the three. No valuation bubble like SpaceX, no giant competitor pressure like AMD. The stablecoin narrative is shifting from "crypto speculation tool" to "global payment infrastructure," and Circle, as the USDC issuer, is the most direct beneficiary of this transformation. If USDC circulation stops declining and rebounds in tomorrow’s earnings, the stock price could surprise.
🎯 Three Reports, One Main Theme
Looking at these three earnings reports together is interesting:
- AMD represents "AI hardware competition"—the chip sector is getting more crowded, valuations higher, and tolerance for mistakes lower
- SpaceX represents "narrative exhaustion"—the good story is over, the market now demands real profits
- Circle represents "regulatory implementation"—the crypto industry is moving from gray areas to compliance, and value revaluation is just beginning
The market’s main theme for the second half of the year may not be "how much more AI can rise," but "which sectors can turn stories into performance, and which have to pay the bill." AMD and SpaceX will see large volatility under the pressure of "performance debt," while Circle, with regulatory moats and relatively stable performance, may become a safe haven for capital.
This is purely personal observation and not investment advice. Which of these three earnings reports are you most optimistic about? Let’s discuss in the comments.8.4 Afternoon
Today's market showed a repair move with an initial drop followed by a pullback. BTC touched a low of 62268 in the early session, then directly rallied, rebounding to around 64239 at the highest point. It is currently oscillating around 63800. ETH hit a low near 1827 and simultaneously rebounded to 1898, now oscillating around 1865. The early session basically exhausted the bears' strength, resulting in a rebound repair.
Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, BTC had been declining steadily before this rebound, which has now reclaimed the mid-term key price level. This indicates the bears' selling power has temporarily been exhausted, but since it hasn't surpassed the previous high, it is not a complete reversal to bullish. Overall, it remains in a consolidation repair phase after the decline. ETH is moving in sync with BTC, rebounding from lows but unable to break or hold above mid-term resistance, also in a consolidation repair phase, not yet ready for a one-sided rally.
On the 1-hour short-term chart, BTC stalled after reaching 64200 and is now oscillating at a high level. There is heavy selling pressure near 64400 above, with support around 63000 below. The rebound momentum is somewhat lacking, so it will likely test support downward first, solidify it, then consider pushing higher. ETH follows the same pattern, pulling back after hitting short-term resistance, currently oscillating above 1850 support, with resistance between 1880-1890. After the rebound, it will consolidate to digest gains; only after stabilizing support can it continue rising.
Afternoon trading suggestions:
$BTC Buy on dips near 63000-63400, target 64200-64600
$ETH Buy on dips near 1845-1855, target 1885-1905
$SNDK The US and Japan are working together to support the yen, but the ammunition in the arsenal may not be enough. The latest report from Evercore ISI points out that a Fed liquidity tool rarely used in daily life may instead become a "magnifying glass" for the market to test the U.S.-Japan intervention resolve. $60 billion vs $53 billion: The numbers game. This tool is called the FIMA Repurchase Facility (a buyback mechanism for foreign and international monetary authorities), allowing overseas central banks to borrow up to $60 billion in short-term dollars from the Federal Reserve using U.S. Treasuries as collateral, avoiding direct selling of Treasuries and shocking the market. According to Bank of Japan data, the single-day intervention on July 30 was about $53 billion, which is very close to the $60 billion ceiling. Evercore strategists bluntly stated that the market will be fixated on this "ceiling" to test the U.S. and Japan's determination to intervene—if the market is convinced intervention requires more ammunition and the account limit is the limit, bears will only bet more fearlessly. The Other Side of the Coin: Why Use It? Knowing there is an upper limit, the US and Japan still chose to use FIMA to avoid worse situations. Japan holds about $1.14 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries. If Japan sells U.S. Treasuries directly to raise intervention funds, it could further push up the 30-year yield (5.23%), already at a 19-year high, thereby intensifying volatility in the Treasury market. This is essentially a tightrope walk: borrowing money from FIMA, with a cap of 60 billion, can last a while, but not forever. If this continues for a long time, the market will become suspicious of the authoritiesOne more thing regarding $TSLA: Recently, there has been a rumor circulating online that Elon Musk said if the humanoid robot can't be made, the project will be directly scrapped. I specifically looked into this and couldn't find any reliable source for this claim. Most likely, it's a misunderstanding or misremembering of the context, so I want to clarify here.
The truth is actually the opposite. Musk's statements in recent earnings calls have consistently been about doubling down on Optimus rather than setting exit conditions. In the Q1 earnings call this April, he said Optimus would be Tesla's biggest single product ever, possibly the biggest single product in history, with a long-term sales scale he estimates could reach the $10 trillion level. More concrete actions include Tesla having already stopped the Model S and Model X production lines at the Fremont factory to free up space specifically for building the Optimus production line, targeting an annual capacity at the million-unit level. This is real investment, not leaving an exit route.
The only statement that could be considered close to candid was his admission during the call that Optimus mass production is Tesla's toughest manufacturing ramp because the entire supply chain is built from scratch with no existing system to reuse. This is an acknowledgment of execution difficulty, which is completely different from saying the project will be scrapped if it can't be made. So the rumor itself doesn't hold up. I recommend checking original sources before sharing such claims, as these kinds of out-of-context or misattributed statements spread very quickly in the financial community.
$TSLA #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
The final climax of earnings season, with three earnings reports released from tonight until tomorrow morning. AMD, SpaceX, and Circle represent AI chips, space economy, and stablecoins respectively.
AMD reports after the market closes tonight.
Market expectations for Q2 revenue are $11.31 billion, a 47% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share around $1.05. The data center segment is the biggest highlight, expected revenue of $6.5 billion, doubling year-over-year, including $4 billion from server chips and $2.5 billion from AI chips. AMD’s stock price has already doubled this year but has pulled back nearly 20% from the June peak. The options market is betting on about a 10% stock price volatility after the earnings. Historically, AMD often beats expectations, but this time the market is looking not just for "beats," but whether the data center growth can support the valuation of AI chips.
SpaceX reports after the market closes the same day, facing greater pressure.
Market expectations for Q2 revenue are $6.87 billion, a clear increase from $4.7 billion in Q1. However, adjusted loss per share is expected to be around $0.25. Starlink is the only profitable segment, contributing $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating profit in Q1, with Q2 expected to reach $3.82 billion.
The real trouble is on August 6. 911.5 million internal shares will be unlocked, while currently only about 600 million shares are circulating. Shorts have already piled up $24.6 billion, and the stock price has fallen from the IPO high of $225 to below $110. The earnings numbers themselves may not be that important; how management soothes market concerns about the unlocking is the real focus.
Circle closes the show before the market opens on Thursday.
Market expectations for Q2 revenue are $717 million, with earnings per share around $0.16. USDC circulation has dropped from 77 billion in Q1 to about 73 billion, which is the biggest concern. A shrinking circulation means the fundamental reserve income base is narrowing. The market is asking: is stablecoin growth peaking?
The stories of these three companies are actually connected along one line. AMD sells chips to AI companies, SpaceX’s AI data centers rent these chips, and Circle’s stablecoin provides liquidity for the entire crypto ecosystem. AMD needs to see if AI chip demand can support its valuation, SpaceX needs to see if Starlink’s cash flow can cover its burn rate, and Circle needs to see if USDC’s growth is slowing.
Each company is answering different questions, but the answers will affect the same market.Are there any fellow traders with similar position costs? The current market trend has really exceeded expectations.
The market briefly dipped to 1826 points, with the price seemingly about to touch the break-even line, then quickly rebounded to 1868.
I hold 50 short positions on Ethereum with an average cost set at 1783. Currently, the unrealized loss is 4214 units of the underlying asset. If the market drops another eighty points or so, this position can be successfully closed without loss.
The recent upward movement in Ethereum’s price is not purely driven by technical patterns; the core logic comes from market expectations of easing geopolitical tensions: the US signaled restarting negotiations and canceling planned military actions, but related parties quickly clarified that no direct bilateral communication has started yet, only third-party coordination on strait navigation issues. There is a clear divergence in information between the sides, and the easing has not yet materialized.
After the news, commodity prices fell, overall risk-off sentiment cooled, US stocks and high-volatility alternative assets absorbed incremental funds, and Ethereum completed a rapid rebound from 1826 to 1868. The short positions briefly saw hope for breaking even but then faced renewed pressure.
The geopolitical game cycle is not over yet. If subsequent negotiations stall or shipping channel risks reemerge, commodity prices and risk sentiment could reverse, giving short positions a chance to recover on paper.
At the same time, overseas digital asset regulatory bills are advancing, providing long-term support for Ethereum. The new bill clarifies the responsibilities of multiple regulatory agencies, platform registration, investor protection, anti-money laundering constraints, and restrictions on public officials’ holdings. For Ethereum, which has high institutional participation, clearer regulations strengthen long-term capital willingness to invest; however, the bill is still in draft form and not yet enacted. Different parties and financial institutions still hold divergent views, so short-term market moves are driven more by sentiment, and the final enactment remains uncertain.
The token BEAT unlocked about 21.25 million tokens on August 1, accounting for 6.9% of the circulating supply. The market generally expected large-scale unlocking to bring selling pressure, but the price actually rose over 16% against the trend, forcing many early short positions to exit passively. Current funds mainly revolve around two narratives: one is the AI agent economy ecosystem layout, and the other is the revenue buyback and burn mechanism. The short-term selling pressure from large unlocking is temporarily offset by positive narratives, but new circulating supply objectively exists. Once market sentiment weakens, existing tokens will gradually be released. This token’s price volatility is very high and unpredictable, so it is not suitable for chasing highs currently.
The token SNDK has recently continued its upward trend, rising over 5% intraday as funds preemptively speculate on the August 5 earnings report. Its last quarter’s total revenue was $5.95 billion, a 97% quarter-over-quarter increase, with data center business growing 233% quarter-over-quarter. The core growth driver is AI server large-capacity storage demand. This quarter’s institutional revenue forecast ranges from $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion. The market is no longer satisfied with just meeting regular targets and generally expects data to exceed expectations. If the earnings report disappoints, concentrated profit-taking at high levels could trigger a rapid pullback. With two key events approaching—the August 5 earnings release and the August 13 investor conference—price volatility is expected to increase significantly.
My personal outlook for the market: geopolitical news will continue to fluctuate, regulatory bills will maintain speculative momentum, and Ethereum will likely consolidate and wash out between 1860 and 1900. If the 1898–1900 range cannot be effectively broken, the market may fall back to test support at 1840, and in extreme cases approach 1800 again. I expect the market to drop about eighty points to break even and exit. The current position is already very close to the risk control warning line.On Aug. 3, spot ETF flows remained mixed:
🟢 $BTC: +$170.09M inflows
🔴 $ETH : -$11.42M outflows
🟢 $XRP: +$1.15M inflows
Bitcoin continued to attract fresh capital, while Ethereum recorded modest outflows. $XRP also finished the day with positive net inflows.
#DailyOrbit #FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch $BTC $ETH 【🧱ETH sideways at 1864, bulls and bears deadlocked awaiting a breakout】
ETH has been stuck around 1860 for several days, with a volatility of less than 2%, and the market has entered an extremely low-volume wait-and-see state.
Mixed news: BitMine increased its holdings by 10,399 ETH last week, bringing total holdings to 5.8 million ETH, accounting for 4.8% of circulating supply, just one step away from the 5% target; meanwhile, a giant whale has withdrawn a total of 112,000 ETH from Gemini over three weeks and staked them. However, the liquidation of over 26,000 ETH short positions shows that bearish pressure still exists, and the sustainability of ETF inflows remains to be seen.
Technical analysis: 1860 is a dense chip area, with resistance above at 1890-1920 and support below at 1830-1840. Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, signaling an approaching turning point.
Short-term strategy: Stay mostly bullish but cautious before a volume breakout; hold above 1900 to be bullish, exit and wait if it falls below 1830. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% $BTC $SOL It feels like Google ($GOOG) is being overlooked in the AI conversation.
Just a few months ago, Google was widely recognized for having one of the strongest frontier AI models, and it still hasn't unveiled its next flagship release.
The next phase of AI isn't just about building better models—it's about integrating AI into the products people use every day.
That's where Google has a unique advantage.
From Search and Chrome to Gmail, Android, Workspace, and its broader ecosystem, Google has an unmatched distribution network to bring AI into billions of daily interactions.
Even if open-source AI becomes dominant and the cost of intelligence keeps falling, Google's ecosystem and network effects could remain a significant competitive edge.
For long-term investors, $GOOGL still looks like one of the strongest core holdings for gaining exposure to frontier AI.
The AI story may only be getting started.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise Allow yourself to not make money on days without market movement, allow yourself to rest, instead of being triggered by others' stories of sudden wealth to make trades you are not good at or confident in. This will only make you lose money, and when your opportunity comes, you won't have the capital. This is the most painful thing in trading. $PLTRB
In a bear market, just take it easy and have fun. Those who want to improve should read trading books to enrich themselves. You don't need to make money all the time, but wait for the opportunity to make a big profit. $AAOI
Remember, not losing money in a bear market means you've already beaten 95% of people! $OPNI am honored to be selected for the Creator Weekly Report. This content actually stems from an idea I had while recently observing the macro market. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
At that time, I saw WTI crude oil drop 8.68% in a single day. Many market interpretations focused on "rising expectations of a ceasefire, risk relief," but I think there might be an easily overlooked point here:
The market trades on changes in expectations, not on outcomes that have already occurred.
So I didn’t simply write "oil prices fell, which is positive for risk assets," but wanted to further analyze the transmission relationship between the geopolitical risks behind oil prices, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policy.
The biggest challenge when writing this was how to avoid making the complex macro logic too complicated. Because factors like oil prices, war, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and BTC seem independent but are actually connected through liquidity.
What I most want to express in this article is:
Investing cannot just focus on short-term sentiment brought by a single news event; it is more important to understand why the market reacts this way and whether this logic can sustain.
For example, the drop in oil prices does ease inflation pressure, but a ceasefire does not mean risks are completely over. So rather than chasing the rally, I pay more attention to two subsequent signals:
One is whether geopolitical risks continue to cool down, and the other is whether the Federal Reserve releases more dovish policy signals.
This is also the approach I have consistently adhered to in my recent market writings—not just repeating the news, but trying to break down the logic behind events so everyone can see the connections between different assets.
Being selected for the weekly report after publishing this is also an encouragement for me. I hope to continue recording market changes in this way and share my observations with more friends.#亚马逊市值破3万亿，500亿押注先赢一局
Amazon's market value has surpassed 3 trillion.
On August 3rd, it closed up 4.6%, with a cumulative gain of over 20% in the two trading days following the earnings report. The driver is just one thing—AWS quarterly revenue of $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, with a backlog of $496 billion in orders.
But there is an action here more worth pondering than the data itself.
Amazon's $50 billion investment in OpenAI has been fully allocated, with the condition that OpenAI will spend $100 billion on AWS over eight years.
Exchanging 50 billion for 100 billion sounds like a good deal. But looking closely at the terms—the holding form is Series C preferred stock, which can only be converted when OpenAI completes an IPO or other liquidity event. The $100 billion cloud orders are currently just commitments, not revenue that has already materialized.
This is quite similar to some practices in the crypto space. A project receives investment from leading institutions while promising to lock part of its tokens or revenue streams within a certain ecosystem. Both sides get what they need: institutions get low-priced chips, and the project gains resource support. But whether it can be fulfilled ultimately depends on whether the project itself can succeed.
What is the takeaway for the crypto world?
The binding between AI giants is shifting from "cooperation" to "investment lock-in." Exchanging 50 billion for 100 billion essentially locks customers into their own ecosystem. This logic is the same as top crypto platforms locking in quality projects through investment plus ecosystem binding.
But the premise is—you must first have a revenue base like AWS to play this "investment for orders" game. Crypto projects without real revenue basically have no chance of replicating this model.
My judgment is simple: the core driver behind Amazon breaking 3 trillion is the quality of AWS's revenue, not that $50 billion investment. For the crypto market, this logic applies as well—the true support for valuation is always revenue, not stories.
$BTC $SNDK $ETH $BTC $ETH Overnight, geopolitical tensions eased, oil prices pulled back, 10-year US Treasury yields retreated, and US stocks closed higher than ever, but BTC barely fluctuated around 63,000. After hitting 64,000, it was pushed back, clearly lagging behind the stock market. The market moves clearly, with positive factors in pricing, but buying willingness in crypto is clearly weaker than in US stocks. This divergence shows that funds have not fully returned to risk appetite. ETH is hovering sideways around 1860, with mainstream counterfeit differentiation, with only a few stocks like Avax holding the trend Overall, there has been no synergy. In the past 24 hours, 240 million yuan was liquidated, with stronger short closing efforts. Open interest slightly increased, and there are signs of some bullish positioning, but the momentum is weak and not enough to drive a breakout. On the news side, nearly 90 million in stolen assets from Coldcard are weighing on sentiment in the cold wallet sector in the short term. MSTR's continued BTC sell-off also weighs on upside potential. On the macro level, Federal Reserve officials have maintained interest rates, institutions have raised their year-end rate hike expectations, and the market is still waiting for inflation data to provide direction. To summarize Short-term easing in geopolitical conditions has provided a window for sentiment recovery, but selling pressure above hasn't been fully digested. Unilateral trend conditions are not yet mature. Operate based on support and resistance ranges to sell high and buy low. Don't chase rallies or cut losses. Keep a close eye on tonight's U.S. capital flows and U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations. Before the direction is decided, position size is more important than judgment. #From rate cuts to rate hikes, Fed divergences fully revealed #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to intervene, Circle closes up #Palantir营收增93%,Tips for Turning US Stock Markets into Crypto: How do pre-market, after-hours, night sessions, and 24-hour trading come about? U.S. stock trading hours will worsen until 24 hours. Just look at its history and you'll understand: 🔹 1985: The US stock market, represented by the Nasdaq, only had morning and afternoon sessions, with no after-hours trading. Just like A-shares. 🔹 1991: Trading volumes in London and Tokyo surged sharply, but not in the same time zone as the US stocks. If trading hours are not extended, global funds can only go to local exchanges. So Nasdaq took the lead in launching ECN (Electronic Communication Network) trading after hours, extending it by one hour (just business competition). 🔹 1990s~2000: With frequent financial reports, economic data, and geopolitical conflicts, these events often occur during Asian or European sessions. If U.S. stocks do not offer after-hours trading, there is a large risk of gap-ups, leading to continuous orders flowing out. Therefore, major exchanges have gradually expanded after-hours trading hours, with only one core goal: to retain orders and prevent diversion of orders. (Once everyone understands, they're starting to grab users.) 🔹 2024: A historic step — U.S. stocks officially launch 24-hour trading (overnight trading). 🔹 2026: 24-hour trading will become mainstream and standard. 📌 The core reason is simple: 24×7 trading in cryptocurrency and forex markets has become the global standard. If you don't provide it, users vote with their feet, and both orders and liquidity are transferred away.Saylor sold 1,638 BTC, but the real danger is not this $100 million, it's that Strategy's "money printing machine" has started to reverse
Many are still debating: Did Saylor betray the belief of "never selling coins"?
But what’s most worth noting about this sale isn’t faith, but that the capital cycle Strategy relies on to drive growth is switching from positive feedback to negative feedback.
In the past week, Strategy sold 1,638 BTC, raising about $105 million, reducing its holdings to 842,138 BTC.
The proceeds from the sale were used to pay preferred stock dividends, repurchase securities, and replenish USD reserves.
The company had previously authorized selling up to $1.25 billion in BTC if necessary, for dividends, interest, and buybacks.
On the surface, this batch of BTC accounts for only about 0.19% of total holdings, which is insufficient to create sustained selling pressure on the market.
So, looking at the amount sold alone is almost meaningless.
What really matters is: Strategy has for the first time clearly proven that the cash costs generated by its issued financial products may ultimately need to be repaid by BTC itself.
Strategy’s strongest business model in the past was an extremely elegant positive cycle:
MSTR trades at a premium to BTC net asset value
→ The company issues stock and preferred shares at high prices to raise capital
→ Uses the capital to buy more BTC
→ BTC per share increases
→ The market continues to assign a higher valuation
→ Refinancing and buying more BTC.
In a bull market, this model was almost like a "perpetual motion machine" continuously buying BTC with Wall Street funds.
But when MSTR’s mNAV premium disappears, or the enterprise value falls near BTC asset value, issuing common stock at low prices dilutes shareholders;
Preferred shares can still raise funds but require continuous high cash dividends.
Strategy even raised STRC’s annual dividend rate to 12% (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission).
Then the cycle begins to reverse:
BTC falls
→ MSTR premium shrinks
→ Equity financing efficiency declines
→ Preferred stock price is pressured, financing costs rise
→ The company needs cash to pay dividends and interest
→ Sells BTC to replenish cash
→ The market further lowers MSTR’s valuation.
This is the real signal released by this sale:
Strategy is no longer simply a BTC hoarder, but a BTC financial institution that must actively manage liabilities, dividends, and liquidity.
This does not mean Strategy will immediately liquidate, nor that BTC will crash because of this 1,638 BTC sale.
The company still holds over 840,000 BTC, about 4% of Bitcoin’s final supply; and this sale is very small relative to its holdings (The Wall Street Journal).
But the market must reprice it.
Previously, investors bought MSTR for "leveraged BTC + never selling coins + continuous accumulation."
Now investors are buying:
BTC price exposure
+ complex preferred stock structure
+ fixed dividend obligations
+ debt interest
+ management’s risk of timing BTC trades.
Therefore, my judgment is:
The short-term impact on BTC is emotional; the medium to long-term impact depends on whether selling becomes normalized; for MSTR itself, it is a permanent downgrade of valuation logic.
Going forward, don’t just focus on how many coins Saylor sold, but watch three indicators:
First, can MSTR’s mNAV relative to BTC net asset value return to a clear premium? Without a premium, the machine for issuing shares to buy BTC cannot operate efficiently.
Second, can STRC stabilize near its $100 par value? If high dividends still cannot support the price, it means the market demands higher risk compensation.
Third, are USD reserves increasing or continuously consumed by dividends, interest, and buybacks? If cash reserves keep declining, BTC will gradually shift from a "permanent reserve asset" to the "last source of liquidity."
So, the most important takeaway is:
Saylor hasn’t suddenly lost faith in BTC; rather, Strategy’s capital structure has begun to require BTC to generate cash flow for it.
1,638 BTC is not important.
What matters is that the machine once only responsible for absorbing BTC has now, for the first time, shown the market its outlet.According to the latest 8-K filing, just last week MicroStrategy sold another 1,638 $BTC at an average price of $63,957, cashing out $105 million.
The selling price is significantly lower than the company's average holding cost of $75,419, representing a loss reduction. Of the proceeds from selling the coins, $52.4 million was used to pay preferred stock dividends, and $52.3 million was used to repurchase $STRC.
In my tweet on July 7, I speculated that MicroStrategy might be shifting its strategy towards "liquidity management." The arbitrage opportunity lies within its own capital structure.
For example, when the market price of STRC with a 12% annual interest rate deviates significantly from its face value (100), selling BTC and then buying back this note's certain yield is far more profitable than holding BTC on the margin.
Now, MicroStrategy is confirming this speculation with concrete actions.
Just a few days ago, during the earnings call, the company surprisingly stated that under the current capital management plan, it might sell up to about $5 billion worth of BTC. This is four times higher than the $1.25 billion mentioned in the board-authorized plan announced on June 29.
Whether intentional or not, Michael Saylor's tweet yesterday completely omitted any mention of "selling BTC," only emphasizing increased dollar reserves and repurchasing STRC.
Perhaps he feels conflicted and complicated inside. After all, he once vowed "never to sell coins"—he probably hasn't forgotten that and now just wants to play dumb? bitcoin:native, why $40k won't be the bottom. Just a technical fact.
I emphasized this back in March. Now is a good time to reiterate.
Almost every rational trader on CT views $40k as the bottom target. Understandable—all trading concepts are based on logic built from historical data, and past cycle bottoms have been near the 0.786 Fibonacci level. That's where $40k comes from.
But here are the facts this framework ignores:
1. In any past bear market, the price has never cleanly traded below the previous cycle's high. The 2021 high was at $65k.
2. Returns for each cycle are sharply diminishing. 2017→2021 high: +250%. 2021→2025 high: +82%. The magnitude to create those deep Fibonacci retracements no longer exists.
3. Price action has structurally changed. This cycle's market has never traded as a whole—liquidity has never rotated from BTC to other assets. The old cycle's mathematical models are being applied to a market that no longer operates like the old cycles.
So as early as January, I reached a simple conclusion: HTF support/resistance levels and liquidity are more important here than any indicator.
Tracking liquidity, BTC has only two clear value zones: the $75k-55k range and the $30k-25k range. Between them is the 2021 price range and a gap, which price has only crossed vertically once, never establishing value there.
That's the whole argument. BTC won't bottom at $40k because $40k is not a level but a void. Either $55k holds, or the price must dig all the way down to $29k—the 2021 range low plus gap fill.
No middle ground. This is exactly why the $40k faction waits at a price level that has no reason to be respected.The shift of cloud providers from selling computing power to selling intelligence has brought plenty of profits. I always thank the market's flawed logic.
After all, who would refuse considerable returns?
Currently, I observe two major logical errors in the market, and following these mistakes together might cause you to miss a huge wave of opportunities.
Error 1: The belief that Kimi and DeepSeek will cause US cloud providers' capital expenditures to peak, preventing other companies from making money, is very wrong.
$AMZN $MSFT $ORCL $CRWV $NBIS can also deploy k3, and DeepSeek sells tokens.
The market might still not understand what open-source models really are.
Error 2: "Anyone can deploy open-source models, so cloud providers have no competitive edge"—this is very wrong.
Not everyone can afford to deploy such large-scale models or build massive multi-card network interconnections that squeeze GPU performance to the limit. Moreover, cloud providers have a full suite of B2B capabilities like permission management, security controls, sandboxing, and more. The process and impact are very profound.
As always, my principle remains: be disciplined, keep cash positions, buy when no one is interested, and sell when the crowd is loud.
If I see more and more self-media promoting these ideas and fewer people criticizing me, I will choose to sell my short-term holdings without hesitation while holding long-term positions.
AI development will not change because of stock price fluctuations; AI is still in its early stages.Bitcoin still sits within a broader downtrend, but multiple lower- and mid-timeframe indicators are beginning to suggest a potential bottom may be forming.
Price has reclaimed the 50-day moving average and continues to hold above the 200-week moving average—a level that has historically separated bull and bear markets.
The context is encouraging. Despite headwinds such as Michael Saylor's $BTC sale, the Coldcard security incident, and ongoing quantum computing concerns, Bitcoin has continued grinding higher rather than breaking down. That's often the kind of resilience seen near major lows.
That said, several key resistance levels still need to be reclaimed before a sustained bull run can be confirmed. These include the multi-year trend channel, the previous cycle high around $69K, and the 3-day 50 MA.
The most likely scenario remains a period of consolidation and volatility before a decisive breakout. Even so, the overall outlook is becoming increasingly constructive.
Looking ahead, the biggest potential catalysts remain geopolitical developments involving Iran, progress on the CLARITY Act, advances in the quantum narrative, and the U.S. midterm elections. Everything else is likely to have a smaller impact on the broader trend.The Fed's internal split moving into public view is the more important development this week, not the earnings cycle. Three dissents at July's meeting was already unusual; now the hawkish minority is speaking openly outside the committee room. Markets have shrugged it off so far, which is itself data.
BTC holding above $63K while Strategy trims another 1,638 coins is the cleaner read on underlying demand. The prior sell in late July was 3,500-plus; the scale is shrinking, and price is not breaking. That suggests real absorption, not just speculative float. The AMD and SpaceX prints this week and whatever tone the hawkish Fed members set will test whether the tape stays this steady or the bid finally thins out.
DYOR.
#OKXOrbit🚨 Yushi Technology is going public! Is $TSLA Tesla's Optimus worried? 🤖📉
Family, big news! The domestic humanoid robot "unicorn" Yushi Technology has officially announced its IPO progress: price inquiry on August 5, subscription on August 10! This is not only a major event for the A-share market but also an earthquake in the global robotics community! 💥
Many are asking: what does this mean for Tesla and Elon Musk next door? Today, let's dig into the details! 👇
⚔️ 1. Price war warning: ¥99,000 vs $30,000?
What’s Yushi’s strongest point? Extreme cost performance! Their G1 series has directly set the price at ¥99,000 RMB (about $14,000).
● Tesla’s current status: Although Musk claims to bring Optimus below $20,000, it is still in the PPT and factory internal testing phase, and the mass production cost remains a mystery.
● Impact: Yushi uses real money and low prices to tell the market: "Humanoid robots don’t have to be expensive!" This directly puts a huge constraint on Tesla Optimus’s future pricing strategy. If Tesla sells it at a high price, why would the market pay?
🏭 2. "China speed" forces "first principles"
Yushi took only about 100 days from acceptance to registration effectiveness. This "Yushi speed" demonstrates the terrifying iteration capability of the Chinese supply chain.
● Impact on Tesla: Musk’s proud "first principles" and vertical integration capabilities now face a strong competitor. Yushi has already achieved small batch shipments and commercial application (factory work, even home use), while Tesla is still in the "pie-in-the-sky" stage.
● Conclusion: This will force Tesla to accelerate Optimus’s mass production process and can no longer take its time polishing it, or else the Chinese market may be seized first.
🔋 3. The supply chain "spare tire" becomes the "main player"
Yushi’s IPO fundraising is mainly for expanding production and R&D, meaning domestic core components (reducers, sensors, motors) will see large-scale volume growth.
● Capital market indicator: The capital market will re-examine the humanoid robot industry chain. Previously, everyone only focused on Tesla’s chain (Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Top Group, etc.), but now the valuation logic of companies in Yushi’s chain (such as Zhongda Lide, Ludi Harmonic, etc.) has changed.
● Potential cooperation? In the future, to reduce costs, might Tesla also consider purchasing China’s high cost-performance components? Yushi’s rise proves this path is feasible.
💡 Summary
Yushi Technology’s IPO is not a "disaster" for Tesla but the "strongest catalyst"! ⚡️
It breaks Tesla’s "solo act" in the humanoid robot field and announces the start of the "duopoly battle" era. For us consumers, when big companies compete, technology iterates faster, and prices drop, that’s the biggest benefit! 🎉Quantum alarm raised again! Cramer plans to liquidate BTC holdings, sparking a sweeping industry-wide security debate
Odaily Planet Daily reports that CNBC's well-known host Jim Cramer publicly stated his plan to sell all his Bitcoin holdings. The core concern driving this decision: quantum computing could break Bitcoin's underlying security mechanisms in about three years.
This statement is not baseless hype. It stems from a warning by IBM Chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna in a July 30 interview, where he cautioned the market that quantum computing is expected to pose a substantial challenge to modern elliptic curve cryptography within the next three to four years.
Industry panic continues to ferment, with the trigger tracing back to a major paper released by Google Quantum AI in March this year. The research team recalculated the attack threshold: the number of physical qubits required to break Bitcoin's encryption algorithm was drastically reduced, estimated to be under 500,000—only one-twentieth of earlier predictions.
Simply put, the technical barrier to effective attacks has been proven by research to be far lower than the market previously believed.
We must objectively distinguish between theoretical projections and the current hardware gap:
Currently, global quantum systems remain at the stage of several hundred to a few thousand physical qubits, with very few logical qubits that have error correction capabilities and stable usability. There is still a huge engineering gap before building a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of reliably running Shor's algorithm to break ECDSA signatures. The risk is a long-term gray rhino, not an immediate black swan.
However, a set of on-chain data deserves high vigilance from all BTC holders.
Research institutions estimate that about 30% of Bitcoin supply, roughly 6 to 7 million BTC, is long-term held in addresses with exposed public keys.
As long as the public key remains permanently public on-chain, once mature quantum computers emerge, these assets will be the first exposed to theft risk. This includes many early P2PK legacy addresses, reused wallet addresses, and Taproot address assets. Funds stored in these addresses are essentially exposed long-term.
Current market three-layer deep thinking
1. How to view Jim Cramer's liquidation remarks?
Market insiders know well that the "reverse Cramer effect" has long existed; his bearish views often serve as contrarian signals. But we cannot simply dismiss this as a joke.
The greatest significance of this event: quantum risk has officially stepped out of cryptography forums and entered mainstream financial media. More traditional investors are beginning to reassess Bitcoin's underlying long-term security risks, and capital risk appetite will be continuously disturbed.
2. Bitcoin's native mechanism has inherent shortcomings
When Bitcoin was created, quantum computing threats were not considered in its design. The entire signature system relies on elliptic curve algorithms, which are naturally vulnerable to Shor's algorithm.
For the network to complete a quantum-resistant upgrade, a high consensus across the entire network is required, and soft forks and protocol migrations proceed extremely slowly. Ordinary retail investors have two traditional coping methods:
① Avoid reusing wallet addresses; after transfers, switch to new addresses to prevent permanent public key exposure on-chain;
② Gradually migrate assets to quantum-resistant architecture systems to proactively avoid long-term risks.
3. The sector landscape faces a new round of selection: who can solve the dual needs of self-custody + long-term security
Recently, two major industry reflections have erupted:
First, Coldcard hardware wallet revealed vulnerabilities, shattering the illusion of "absolute security" in hardware wallets;
Second, the long-term threat of quantum computing has surfaced, exposing hidden long-term security risks in static coin hoarding.
The market is searching for the next-generation solution: one that ensures asset private keys are self-held without third-party custody, is compatible with future quantum-resistant upgrade paths, and can generate continuous yield on idle BTC.
This is also one of the most important incremental logics in BTCFi's long-term narrative. The pure spot coin hoarding era is continuously exposing problems.
Rational market judgment
In the short term, quantum risk remarks are emotional disturbances insufficient to drive BTC out of its unilateral trend. The current market remains anchored to multiple macro variables including 30-year US Treasury yields, Middle East geopolitics, and institutional BTC portfolio adjustments.
There is no need to panic sell because of a research paper or a financial host's statement, but the long-term technological transformation risk must not be ignored.
Operational approach:
1. Review your wallet addresses and avoid storing long-term funds in old addresses with exposed public keys;
2. Do not concentrate large assets in a single carrier; diversify with hardware wallets and on-chain self-custody solutions;
3. For long-term layout, prioritize BTCFi infrastructure with underlying security iteration capabilities and native self-custody systems.
Risk always remains for those who take chances. The brewing cycle of storms is often long; advance defensive strategies to avoid being caught off guard when the wave hits.
$BTC $ETH $CORE
#QuantumComputing #OnChainSecurity #BTCFi
⚠️Content is for informational and opinion purposes only, not investment advice, DYOR $DOGE $SNDK $SKHYNIX $PLTR
After-hours surge of 12%! The market thinks it's just a defense stock relying on government contracts?
This quarter, what really exploded wasn't total revenue, but "U.S. commercial revenue" — up 149% year-over-year, which means it more than doubled by 2.5 times.
In the past, everyone laughed at the AIP platform as marketing hype, but this quarter, enterprise customer net revenue retention soared to 157% (meaning existing customers not only stayed but also bought more), with 220 new contracts over one million dollars signed in a single quarter, and total contract value grew 49% year-over-year to $3.37 billion.
While other software stocks are still struggling with "how to monetize AI," Palantir has already turned it into a money-printing machine — using a five-day Bootcamp workshop to let customers directly run usable AI results on their own data, compressing the traditional year-long procurement cycle into a deal closed within a week.
Don't just focus on government orders for this stock; the valuation ceiling has long been redefined by the commercial side.
$PLTR
#USStocks #AIMonetization #EarningsAnalysis #USStockInvestment
157% net revenue retention vs. 71x P/E ratio — if you are a Palantir shareholder, does this earnings report make you want to buy more, or do you think it's time to take profits first? Bitcoin dominance is like a hyena circling its prey. The pack is distracted by scraps, but the apex predator's eyes remain fixed on the real prize.
The alts are getting restless, with $ADA, $ZEC, $APT, $KITE, and $PUMP enjoying a 24-hour party. $ADA's 5.79% surge is nothing to sneeze at, but its flow patterns paint a more nuanced picture. Liquidity is trickling in, with a few notable exceptions.
$BTC = the anchor holding up the ship, but what's the cargo? $ETH is pulling in institutional inflows, amplifying market volatility. Meanwhile, $SOL's 3% daily range is a ticking time bomb, waiting to unleash chaos.
Don't get caught chasing last week's alts. Focus on the whales that control the flow.
"Your market narrative is only as strong as its weakest link."Elon Musk truly deserves the title of the king of trade calls
Regarding "Looking back, this will be an excellent opportunity"
I also believe the price will rise from 108 to 115
Currently, the short nominal position of $SPCX is about $23.6 billion, approximately 206 million shares, accounting for about 32.2% of the free float, surpassing Tesla's approximately $22 billion
The most certain logic for shorts right now is
A very small float, scarce shares, price being pushed up; once the lock-up expires, the stock supply will rapidly increase.
What valuations has the market currently assigned to these businesses?
1. Starlink: Subscription users, ARPU, enterprise/government customers, satellite and ground network expansion costs determine whether it is closer to a stable cash flow business or a continuously high capital expenditure business
2. Launch business: Whether launch frequency and commercial orders can translate into profit margins, not just technical capability
3. AI/compute narrative: If its AI or data center plans remain mainly a long-term vision, the market may lower the valuation multiples for a "technology platform company"
4. Starship's capital expenditure and commercialization timeline: This is the biggest long-term upside option and also the cost item most likely to cause controversy in short-term financial reports AMD is about to release its earnings report. The market has fully priced in the expected 47% year-over-year revenue growth to $11.3 billion for $AMD in Q2. The core issue lies in whether the AI revenue from the data center MI300 can exceed expectations to support risk appetite.
Based on the recent guidance pricing characteristics validated by PLTR, meeting earnings expectations alone cannot continue to drive valuation premiums. Market positioning is significantly more sensitive to subsequent AI chip revenue guidance than to overall revenue.
Event risk is quickly transmitted through shifts in capital preference. Long positions are highly concentrated; if MI300 commercialization falls short of expectations, the pressure to exit risk assets will spread from individual stocks to the entire AI sector.
The upside scenario triggers if data center GPU and MI300-related AI revenue significantly exceed the already raised expectations, and Q3 guidance maintains high growth. Variables to watch include the specific proportion of AI revenue within the total $11.3 billion revenue. A failure signal is data center growth lagging behind the 47% total revenue growth.
The downside scenario triggers if MI300 sales guidance barely meets targets, causing long positions that previously bet on outperformance to quickly stop out. Variables to watch include whether sector risk appetite tightens simultaneously toward other high-valuation targets. A failure signal is after-hours trading volume quickly absorbing sell orders and breaking through previous resistance levels.
The main logic fails if overall revenue falls below $11.3 billion but AI chip revenue alone surges. In this case, the market will shift from evaluating traditional data center business to purely reconstructing valuation based on AI commercialization.
In the next 24 hours, key observations include the detailed breakdown of data center GPU business in the earnings report at 5 AM Beijing time on August 5, and the net capital flow in positions after the earnings release.
#CLARITY法案剩72小时，动议仍未提交 #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐 #CLARITYAct72Hours
The clock is ticking on Congress's biggest crypto legislation of the year. The CLARITY Act — formally H.R. 3633, the bill that would split U.S. digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC — was conspicuously absent from Monday's Senate floor schedule, which listed only a procedural vote on an unrelated spending bill. That's significant because the Senate leaves for its August recess around August 10, and under normal Senate rules, a cloture motion filed Wednesday, August 5 could produce a vote as early as Friday, August 7 — but that vote would only decide whether to end debate and proceed to the bill, not pass it outright. And that procedural vote alone needs 60 votes to succeed, meaning Republicans have to line up genuine Democratic support just to keep the bill alive before recess.
The bill already has real momentum behind it — it passed the House 294-134 back in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May 2026 — but talks have stalled over disputes involving government ethics rules and stablecoin rewards. The pressure campaign has intensified as the deadline nears: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly pushed the Senate to act, Grayscale has warned that delay threatens U.S. competitiveness in digital assets, and advocacy group Stand With Crypto says supporters have contacted lawmakers over a million times urging passage. Despite the noise, betting markets aren't optimistic — Polymarket's odds on CLARITY becoming law in 2026 have slid to the high-20s to low-30s percent range, down sharply from around 82% back in February, and Galaxy Research recently cut its own estimate from 50% to 30%. If the window closes without action, the bill's fate likely slides into September, right as the crypto industry looks toward the 2026 midterms for leverage. $BTC From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's phased approach fully revealed
The market once unanimously bet on the Fed continuing to cut rates, but now policy expectations have completely reversed. The rate cut narrative has quickly exited, rate hike discussions have returned to the forefront, and the Fed's full policy path is gradually becoming clear. The core of this expectation reversal lies in inflation resilience exceeding expectations, strong employment, combined with geopolitical factors pushing up energy prices, completely disrupting the previous easing timetable.
The current policy cycle can be clearly divided into four major stages: the rate cut expectation warming-up phase, the rate-hold observation period, hawkish statements reshaping expectations, and the game of restarting rate hikes. The biggest change is the Fed weakening fixed forward guidance, with decisions now fully dependent on real-time data. The past model of "giving signals in advance" no longer exists, and market volatility will remain elevated for the long term.
At this stage, bulls and bears are clearly divided: bulls bet on economic slowdown and continued inflation decline, with rate hikes only staying verbal; bears are wary of oil price-driven inflation rebounds forcing the Fed to restart tightening. In trading, it is crucial not to cling to the rate cut mindset from the first half of the year. U.S. Treasuries, growth stocks, and crypto assets will continue to be disturbed by rate expectations. Going forward, focus closely on CPI, PCE, and employment data. Once inflation rebounds again, rate hike expectations will quickly ferment, and the global liquidity environment will tighten again.
⚠️Risk warning: This is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 ⚡ $MMT (Momentum) — $0.158
$MMT is a typical case of a "story coin" collapse — plummeting from an opening high of $6 to around $0.16.
🛡️ Support levels: $0.1620 is a dense trading zone from three weeks ago. $0.1715 is a previous low. Further down, $0.0110 is where early buyers tried to defend.
🚧 Resistance levels: $0.1850 is the intraday bull-bear dividing line. Breaking through targets $0.1980.
🐳 On-chain whale activity: A 12% plunge in 15 minutes to $0.1756, with $74 million traded — bulls and bears fiercely contesting around $0.18. The order book's sell volume is 1.7 times the buy volume, indicating "bears controlling the market." The 24-hour correlation with BTC is 0.63, and with the Nasdaq 0.51 — showing it "fears more than anyone" during macro tightening. The $0.1718 low precisely hit the 200-day moving average, which has triggered rebounds of at least 20% on the last three touches. Market cap is about $35.65 million, a small-cap altcoin with very high whale control.
📈 Bullish factors: The 200-day moving average has historically provided support three times; if macro sentiment improves (e.g., rising expectations of rate cuts), it may follow BTC's technical rebound; having dropped over 97% from the $6 high to $0.16, the bubble has largely deflated.
📉 Bearish factors: A typical "story finished, funding dries up" scenario; harsh macro environment (US Dollar Index at 105.5, crypto market net outflow of $430 million); 78% probability of no Fed rate cut in June; extremely high risk for heavy positions, recommended to keep exposure under 5%. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% #财报观察员：AMD and SpaceX reports are imminent, Circle is the finale
Palantir's first report confirmed the "guidance sets the price" rule, rising 15%. There are three reports left, who can replicate this?
🔴 AMD (around 5:00 AM Beijing time on August 5)
Expected revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year. The key question is the quality of AI chips—whether MI300 can carve out a market share in data center GPUs. If it meets expectations but is not enough, AI revenue exceeding expectations is needed for a price increase.
(As long as the AI chip is released normally, AMD is guaranteed to rise)
🚀 SpaceX (around 4:30 AM Beijing time on August 5)
Stock price fell from 225 to 108, 20% below IPO price. Over $100 billion will be unlocked on August 6. To hold the price, they would need solid positive news like "moon landing this year"—but the probability is extremely low. The pressure is the highest certainty.
(According to market discussions, it will fall)
🟢 Circle (around 8:00 PM Beijing time on August 5, the finale)
Expected revenue of $714 million, tied to USDC scale and interest rates. USDC reserves have shrunk to 72.06 billion. Whether the volume shrinkage can be offset by high interest rates is key, and it is most likely to deliver a surprise.
(It depends on the hype, after all, most funds are currently in US stocks)
Who can replicate the 15% rise? AMD relies on AI exceeding expectations, SpaceX is almost impossible, Circle has the greatest possibility. The answer will be revealed tonight.
$AMD $SPCX $PLTR #BigTechEarningsWatch Palantir kicked off earnings week with a 93% growth report, raised guidance, and jumped 12%. Guidance is the key — beat without it and you get sold 📈
AMD after Aug 4 close: consensus $11.3B revenue, +47% YoY. Margins and AI chip demand are the real indicators. If AMD's AI numbers hold up, it puts more pressure on the "AI demand is fading" narrative 👀
SpaceX releases its first ever public-company earnings the same day. Aug 6 lockup of up to 911.5M shares right after — sell pressure and Starlink margin quality both under the microscope simultaneously 🚀
Circle pre-market Aug 5: consensus ~$714M, directly tied to USDC supply dynamics and rate sensitivity as reserves slip to $72.06B. Stablecoin economics are the story here 💵
Three very different companies, all reporting in a 48-hour window. Palantir already showed the market rewards guidance over revenue 🤔
AMD, SpaceX, Circle — which one has the most riding on this print for the broader crypto and AI narrative? 👇Monday, August 3rd.
The Senate has released this week's agenda.
The CLARITY Act is not on it.
Instead, there is H.R.6500—a continuing resolution with no relation to crypto whatsoever.
The Senate recesses on August 7th.
Time left for the bill: 72 hours.
But the problem is—it hasn't even reached the starting line.
On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 is 27%.
At the beginning of the year, this number was 82%. Kalshi gave an even harsher estimate—33%. Galaxy Research cut it directly from 50% to 30%.
Thirty percent. Lower than the odds of flipping a coin.
Think 72 hours is a long time? Let me break down the Senate's inhumane procedure for you:
First hurdle: submitting a cloture motion (to end debate), which requires 16 senators' signatures.
16 people. Sounds like not many? But this is a motion to "end debate"—meaning you have to convince 16 senators to agree "enough talk, let's vote now."
Second hurdle: cloture vote, requiring 60 votes.
Out of 100 senators, three-fifths. Even if all Republicans vote yes—53 seats—you still need to pull at least 7 Democrats.
7 people. These 7 have blocked the bill for two months.
Third hurdle: even if cloture passes, there can be another 30 hours of debate.
30 hours. After debate, they vote on "whether to proceed to consideration"—not even the bill itself.
Even with a green light all the way, the earliest cloture vote would be Friday (August 7th).
Then what? Recess.
The bill itself? Hasn't even started being considered.
Wednesday (August 5th) is the last chance to submit the cloture motion.
Thursday? Too late. Friday? Recess.
So—if 16 signatures aren't gathered by Wednesday, the bill doesn't even have a chance to be "rejected."
It dies in the womb.
Some ask: can this arithmetic be solved after the September session?
Lawmakers return on September 14th. Then what?
Less than two months until the midterm elections.
Who will have time to handle your crypto bill then? Lawmakers' focus will be on campaigns.
Miss the August window, and after September's return, there are only three weeks of session. What can be done in three weeks? Fix ethics clauses? Resolve stablecoin yield disputes? Flip 7 Democrats?
Harder than pushing Bitcoin to $70,000 in a day.
And don't forget—within the Republican Party, Josh Hawley and Rand Paul have clearly opposed it. The actual available votes are less than 51.
Can't even get 53 seats, yet need to pull 7 Democrats?
What's the key bottleneck?
Not the votes. Not the time.
No one really cares.
Grayscale was urging the Senate to vote just last week. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly called out. Industry reps have contacted Congress over a million times cumulatively.
Does it help?
Monday's agenda came out—nothing.
Both parties are still arguing over ethics clauses, stablecoin yields, and whether officials can issue coins.
A 616-page bill stuck on a few words.
The Trump family made $1.2 billion from crypto. Democrats say you made too much, so we don't trust this bill. Republicans say clauses can be changed but schedule the vote first.
Both sides are playing games. The ones hurt are holders like you.
To put it bluntly—
BTC is around $63,900 today. The Fear & Greed Index is 28—"Fear."
Volume has plummeted 71%. Neither bulls nor bears dare to move.
Why? Because everyone is waiting for the same signal: does the bill still have a chance?
But the problem is—the signal may never come.
If you still hold a large amount of altcoins, betting on a pump after the bill passes—
you're betting on a 73% chance that won't happen.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #CLARITY法案剩72小时，动议仍未提交 #FedSplitGoesPublic The Fed is openly split and the debate has shifted from "how much to hike" to "hike or cut" 👀
Hike camp: Logan says rates should be modestly higher. Hammack points to five straight years above 2% target. Kashkari backs a 25bp hike at September. The inflation argument 📈
Cut camp: Waller warns the job market could weaken faster than expected and backs a 25bp cut at the Sept 16-17 meeting. The only public cut call on the table 📉
And Warsh? Called 2% "unshakeable," refused to give any guidance, took no side. Classic. The path to September rests entirely on two CPI prints now 🫠
Markets are tilting toward a hike. But Waller's cut call means a weak jobs print or cool CPI could flip pricing fast. Everything is data-dependent in the most literal sense 🤔
Hike camp vs cut camp, September meeting the battleground, two CPI prints to decide it all. Which side are you on — and what's the number that would change your mind? 👇#MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, scale halved
MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, breaking the myth of only buying and never selling, the whale's holding logic has completely changed
Let's clarify the core facts first. Many people misread the headline and thought the holdings were directly halved. First, correct the data, then analyze the reasons for selling coins, market impact, and future outlook, explaining institutional movements thoroughly.
1. Core data of this sale (SEC filing on August 3)
1. Trading period: July 27 to August 2, sold a total of 1,638 bitcoins over 4 trading days, total transaction price $104.7 million, average selling price per coin $63,957.
2. Loss sale: MSTR's overall average holding cost is $75,419, this time each coin was sold at a loss of $11,462, a passive realization under unrealized loss.
3. Latest total holdings: after reduction, 842,138 BTC remain, still the publicly listed company holding the most bitcoin globally, accounting for nearly 4% of bitcoin's permanent circulating supply; it is not a halving of holdings. The widely spread "scale halving" is a misinterpretation caused by the company's lifting of the maximum $5 billion selling limit and two consecutive weeks of large sales causing panic.
4. Use of funds: the cash-out funds are split in two, half used to pay preferred stock dividends, the other half to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares, not a direct bearish exit from bitcoin; meanwhile, combined with selling some MSTR stock, the company's USD cash reserves have directly increased to $4 billion.
2. Timeline of continuous coin sales: holding firm for 5 years "never selling coins," completely changed this year
1. End of June: tentatively sold 32 BTC, externally stated as only a transaction process test, market paid little attention;
2. Early July: first large-scale reduction of 3,588 BTC, cashing out $216 million, opening the active selling sequence;
3. End of July this time: sold another 1,638 BTC, totaling over 5,200 bitcoins sold in two weeks;
4. Key policy change: the company raised the sellable bitcoin limit from $1.25 billion to $5 billion, officially establishing a normalized BTC realization mechanism, ending the previous "financing → buying coins → holding forever" flywheel model.
3. Why sell coins at a loss? Two fundamental realities
1. High leverage financing pressure, cash flow must be guaranteed
Previously, MSTR borrowed heavily through convertible bonds and preferred stock to hoard coins, paying huge fixed dividends and interest annually; this year, with bitcoin's volatile decline and MSTR stock price down 40% year-to-date, equity financing has become difficult, making it impossible to easily issue new shares to buy coins as before.
Not selling coins to pay interest would cause debt liquidity risk; compared to unrealized losses, the company's primary goal is to avoid debt default.
2. Fed rate hike expectations rise, pause aggressive accumulation
The market currently widely worries about the Fed restarting rate hikes in September; in a high-interest environment, borrowing costs for hoarding coins will further soar; management clearly stated: newly raised funds will no longer buy bitcoin, prioritizing expanding USD cash reserves, and institutional incremental buying is temporarily halted.
Additional distinction: founder Michael Saylor has not sold a single coin personally; this is only a corporate-level capital adjustment, and he remains long-term bullish on BTC, dispelling some "big player running away" rumors.
4. Short-term and mid-to-long-term impact on bitcoin market
Short-term sentiment bearish
After the news, bitcoin's Asian session quickly dropped 1%, market pressure increased; MSTR, recognized by retail as the "institutional bull indicator," selling coins at a loss consecutively weakens speculative funds' confidence, short-term bulls dare not enter recklessly, BTC will likely maintain a narrow range consolidation.
Mid-to-long-term no need to panic excessively
1. The massive base of 840,000 BTC remains untouched, only a very small portion was liquidated to repay debt, not a large-scale exit;
2. Institutional selling is financial liquidity management, not a denial of bitcoin's value; as long as bitcoin price stabilizes and moves away from lows, small-scale re-accumulation is possible later;
3. Industry chain effect: many overseas small and medium enterprises imitating MSTR's coin treasury assets will start to establish liquidation plans, ongoing pressure from small institutions selling at unrealized losses needs attention.
5. Personal future operation strategy
Currently, I will not blindly short or bottom-fish based on a single whale selling news, focusing on two signals:
First, whether MSTR continues large-scale BTC sales; if the $5 billion quota is continuously consumed, further reduce positions to hedge;
Second, US Treasury yields, PCE inflation data, and Fed rate hike expectations are the core factors deciding whether institutions dare to buy coins again.
Recently, many in the community are bearish on bitcoin due to MSTR selling; do you think this is just a short-term institutional debt repayment sale, or a signal that bull faith is starting to collapse? Why Have Indonesian Entrepreneurs Been Ousted from the Top Ranks of ASEAN's Richest?
The wealth landscape in Southeast Asia has undergone significant changes throughout 2026. For the first time since 2015, not a single Indonesian entrepreneur ranks among the top five richest people in ASEAN according to Forbes' real-time rankings.
The top five positions are now held by billionaires from Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore, with a combined wealth of US$107.9 billion. This contrasts sharply with the beginning of the year, when four out of the top five spots were still dominated by Indonesian entrepreneurs.
This phenomenon is not merely a change in individual wealth figures but reflects a shift in the direction of business growth in the region.
Rising valuations in technology, infrastructure, semiconductors, and electric vehicles have been the main drivers behind the emergence of new leaders in Southeast Asia.
On the other hand, the position of Indonesian conglomerates has weakened due to declines in the stock values of several major companies. One of the most notable is the drop in Prajogo Pangestu's wealth after the shares of companies affiliated with Barito Pacific Group faced pressure throughout the first half of 2026.
The current leader is Pham Nhat Vuong from Vietnam, with a fortune of US$33.6 billion. His wealth surge was driven by the strengthening of Vingroup's shares, growth in electric car sales by VinFast, and the expansion of high-speed rail projects through VinSpeed.
Following him are Enrique Razon Jr., Sarath Ratanavadi, Dhanin Chearavanont, and Jason Chang. Their wealth increases were fueled by stock rallies in the ports, energy, food, and semiconductor sectors, which have seen accelerated investments in infrastructure and artificial intelligence (AI).
It can be said that while other countries aggressively build businesses based on technology, logistics, AI, and electric vehicles, Indonesia faces challenges in producing more high-value companies to compete again at the regional level.The most consensus in the crypto world now is not that the bull market will return soon, but rather: even if this bear market hasn't hit its lowest point yet, it should have mostly passed. New investors feel the price has fallen hard enough, veteran players think time has worn down long enough, and institutions no longer discuss whether Bitcoin will disappear but are considering buying now or waiting for another pullback. Of course, consensus doesn't necessarily mean correct. But I think at this stage, continuing to guess the lowest point is no longer the most important thing. What truly matters is: when the bull market restarts, is the coin I hold the most likely to be bought back by capital? It's not necessarily the bottom now, but it's no longer like the early bear market. Currently, BTC is about $63,000, ETH about $1,625, SOL about $78, and DOGE about $0.07. Compared to its high of over $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has already pulled back more than 50%. In June 2026, the price also touched the long-watched 200-week moving average. According to CoinShares statistics, after touching this moving average five times before, Bitcoin's price was higher a year later; But historical samples are few, which only indicates the odds are improving, not that the lowest point has appeared. Image content: BTC current pulldown position chart Old money hasn't run out, just started picking prices Recently, Bitcoin ETFs have indeed experienced consecutive outflows. For example, on July 23 and 24, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $225 million and $240 million in a single day, respectively. This indicates that institutions also stop losses, rebalance, and wait for updates#USJapanYenIntervention
Japan and the U.S. just carried out their first coordinated currency intervention since 2011, stepping in Friday to halt the yen's slide to its weakest level in roughly 40 years. The yen had tumbled to 163.73 per dollar last Thursday before rebounding sharply to 157.57 on Friday after the two countries jointly bought yen and sold dollars. Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed Monday that it may have spent as much as $36.6 billion on the operation, while the U.S. Treasury reportedly sold euros to help fund yen purchases. President Trump framed the move casually, telling reporters "they wanted a little bit of help, and we're always there for Japan," calling it mostly "a signal of friendship." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent struck a more formal tone, saying the action "countered disorderly yen movements" and that Washington "will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention."
Behind the friendly framing, analysts see real stakes for both sides. For Japan, a persistently weak yen risks triggering further selling in Japanese government bonds, and Tokyo signaled it plans to tap the Fed's FIMA repo facility for future dollar liquidity — a move that lets Japan raise dollars without dumping U.S. Treasuries, easing concerns that solo intervention could spill over into U.S. funding markets. For the U.S., a weaker yen threatens to widen the trade deficit, and rising JGB yields could add pressure to already-climbing U.S. Treasury yields. It's the first joint yen-buying operation between the two countries since 1998, and with both governments explicitly promising more action if needed, currency traders are bracing for further intervention through the rest of the summer. #MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, halving the scale
MicroStrategy sold more coins again, but the interpretation of this event is quite different from what most people think.
From July 27 to August 2, they sold 1,638 BTC, cashing out 104.7 million USD at an average price of 63,957 USD. They sold 3,588 BTC in early July, so this time the amount was halved.
The reason for selling is simple — there is a dividend payment due. The preferred stock dividend is annualized at 12%, and it must be paid. The money from selling coins is used to pay dividends and repurchase preferred stock, which is a management of existing funds, not an active shorting of Bitcoin. The logic is the same as last time, unchanged.
What’s really interesting is this — the company still holds 842,138 BTC on its books, with the proportion unchanged. On-chain data also shows no obvious one-sided selling pressure; the market has become desensitized to MicroStrategy selling coins. The first time they sold, people panicked a bit, but by the second time, there was basically no reaction.
The conditions for starting to buy coins again are also clear: waiting for the preferred stock price to recover near the issue price, currently about 10% away. Once that batch recovers, MicroStrategy’s buying rhythm will restart. They’re not in a hurry, and you don’t need to be either.
$BTC $SNDK $BICO 72 hours. The bill doesn't even qualify to be put on the table.
August 3rd, Monday.
The Senate released this week's agenda.
The CLARITY bill is not on it.
Instead, there is H.R.6500—a funding bill that has nothing to do with crypto.
August 7th, the Senate recesses.
Time left for the bill: 72 hours.
But the problem is—it hasn't even reached the starting line.
You think 72 hours is a long time?
Let me break down the Senate's inhumane procedure for you:
First hurdle: submitting a cloture (end debate) motion, which requires 16 senators' signatures.
16 people. Sounds like not many? This is the "stop arguing, let's vote now" request.
Second hurdle: cloture vote, requiring 60 votes.
Republicans have 53 seats, Hawley and Paul are clearly opposed, McConnell hasn't voted since being hospitalized—reliable votes max out at 50.
They still need to pull at least 7 Democrats.
These 7 people have stalled the bill for two months.
Third hurdle: even if cloture passes, there can be another 30 hours of debate.
30 hours. After debate ends, they vote on "whether to proceed to consideration"—not the bill itself.
Even with a green light all the way, the earliest cloture vote would be Friday (August 7th).
Then what? Recess.
The bill itself? It hasn't even started being reviewed.
Now do you see where the problem lies?
Wednesday (August 5th) is the last chance to submit the cloture motion.
Thursday? Too late. Friday? Recess.
So—if 16 signatures aren't gathered today, the bill doesn't even have a chance to be "rejected." It will die in the womb.
How does the market see it?
BTC is hovering between $63,000 and $63,500.
But don't be fooled by the price—the trading volume has plummeted 71%.
Neither bulls nor bears dare to move.
Why? Because everyone is waiting for the same signal: does the bill still have a chance?
On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 is 26% to 31%.
At the beginning of the year, this number was 82%.
From 82% down to 26%. A drop of 56 percentage points in half a year.
Galaxy Research is even harsher—cutting directly from 50% to 30%.
Thirty percent.
Do you know what this means?
The market thinks the probability of the bill passing is even lower than flipping a coin.
To put it bluntly—
Grayscale was still urging the Senate to vote last week.
Treasury Secretary Yellen publicly called out.
Industry representatives have contacted Congress over a million times cumulatively.
Did it help?
Once Monday's agenda came out—nothing.
Both parties are still arguing over ethics clauses, stablecoin yields, and whether officials can issue coins.
A 616-page bill is stuck on a few words.
The Trump family made $1.2 billion from crypto.
Democrats say you made too much, so we don't trust this bill.
Republicans say the clauses can be changed but schedule the vote first.
Both sides are playing games.
The most critical sentence—
Even if procedural votes start this week, it only leaves a "hope" for when the session resumes in September.
September session? The midterm elections are two months away.
Who will have time to care about your crypto bill then?
The probability of passing in 2026 is shrinking by the hour.
If you still hold a large amount of altcoins, betting on a rally after the bill passes—
you are betting on something with a 70% chance of not happening.
Will it be submitted today?
My judgment: extremely low probability.
Can't gather 16 signatures. Can't find 7 Democrats. Can't get on the agenda.
Lummis said she has been keeping a spot for the bill on the agenda for weeks.
But "keeping a spot" and "someone sitting in it" are two different things.
No movement today means no movement.
One last painful note—
Jiang Zhuoer said if the CLARITY bill can't pass before recess, Bitcoin may complete the last drop of the bear bottom.
The $62,000-$63,000 range has a chip concentration as high as 8%, similar to the eve of the 2022 FTX crash.
High concentration + bad news landing = violent redistribution.
You are not holding.
You are waiting to be redistributed.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #CLARITY法案剩72小时，动议仍未提交 Just finished a cold shower, scrolled through my phone for a bit, and damn, I laughed out loud.
Laughing at how I used to worship K-line charts like they were gods.
Those dumb altcoins in my account, the ones I used to set alarms for at 3 AM, afraid of missing any big swings, now have price movements as flat as my dog's ECG. It's not about the money; it's that I suddenly fucking realized—this pile of broken code probably won't even catch a whiff of the next halving rally.
Harsh words, but just look at the real-time trading data on the exchanges yourself.
I used to know a guy who was heavily invested in some meme coin, holding from the peak all the way down to the basement, constantly spamming the group chat with "whale address movements" and "daily chart bottom divergence confirmation soon." I told him, wake up, will you? That's not faith; that's just not wanting to feel the pain of cutting losses.
Last month, that coin's 24-hour trading volume was less than $500,000, and the community pinned post was still a Mid-Autumn Festival greeting from three months ago, with only two replies—one an ad, the other "OP is a good person."
The whole market basically has "RUN" written all over your face. This round is not some flourishing bull market; it's a zero-sum slaughterhouse where smart money is burying dumb money.
Those quant funds are now sneaky as hell, only daring to scalp a few tokens with ongoing buzz, turnover support, and volatility, while the rest? They drip-feed you sell pressure daily until you go numb, until you don't even bother cursing when you open your wallet.
Just scanned the fund flows over the past 12 hours today (August 4th), and damn, it's as precise as a scalpel. See for yourself:
✅ Net capital inflow (buy-side dominance):
$BTC • $ETH • $SOL • $DOGE • $XRP • $ADA • $DOT • $AVAX • $LTC • $MATIC
Bitcoin is steady like an old dog, and the rest are all familiar faces from the top twenty by market cap. All the money is squeezing into the safest spots, which is the most cowardly signal. New public chains? Cross-chain bridges? Gaming platforms? Not a single trace on today's leaderboard—they're all soaking in the cesspool.
❌ Continuous capital outflow (obvious sell pressure):
$SHIB • $TRX • $NEAR • $ATOM • $ALGO • $VET • $ICP • $FIL • $EGLD • $FTM • $SAND • $MANA
Several of these were hyped as "infrastructure layers" by major communities last year, but now? Their rebounds are as soft as noodles, like their spines have been pulled out—no matter how you prop them up, they just won't stand. Especially the metaverse batch; once the hype dies, they turn into dead dogs—whoever touches them is a fool.
👀 Skimmed over in my watchlist without even a finger twitch:
$KAS • $ARB • $OP • $SUI • $APT
Just skimmed. At this point, itchy fingers are scarier than losing money.
A few words on those unavoidable big players:
👑 $BTC — The anchor; if it ever wobbles, everyone goes down with it
🏛️ $ETH — ETF drama is hanging by a thread, moving slowly, but few dare to short it seriously
⚡ $SOL — The mood thermometer, bouncing around like it's on drugs; quick in and out, don't hold overnight or you won't sleep
🤖 $DOGE — Elon farts and it pumps 5%, but it comes and goes fast; lag behind and you're left standing guard
📉 $XRP — The trading range is narrowing, the breakout is coming fast, and no one knows which way
Every cycle teaches the same lesson: don't think every dumb project can make a comeback, don't trust every roadmap isn't just a PPT.
The real sharks who survive the market and take money away never place orders based on "I feel a rebound coming." They don't count waves, draw lines, or trust dumb indicators; they only watch where the on-chain liquidation lines are, whether funding rates are normal, and if contract positions are blowing up.
Faith? Can faith put food on the table? Liquidity is your real daddy, remember that.
I fucking learned this the hard way after losing a Porsche. Hope you pay less tuition and don't follow my old path.
---
It's the weekend, put your phone aside. Go out, get some sun, meet people for a couple of drinks, talk about things that have nothing to do with coin prices. Everything will be the same when the market opens next Tuesday, but your hair and liver might not be.
The market is always there; first, make sure you live comfortably yourself.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #CapitalFlow #Weekend #FuckTheMarket Brothers, EDGE rose 4.54% today, currently at $0.3586, representing a technical recovery rally initiated from the $0.32 support range.
After the token plummeted from the high of $1.54, it has been oscillating at the bottom for a long time. One token supply data point is worth noting: EDGE's current circulation rate is only 35%, with the remaining 65% locked in long-term staking. The lockup cliff lasts until March 2027, after which linear batch unlocking will begin. There is no large new token selling pressure in the short term, providing a defensive barrier for the bottom price. On-chain data shows that in the past week, about $2.23 million worth of EDGE has net flowed out of the spot market, with chips continuously migrating from exchanges to personal wallets;
Reminder: Withdrawals are only a neutral signal and cannot be directly equated with long-term hoarding.
However, the low circulation structure is a typical double-edged sword. After the 2027 lockup period ends, a large volume of tokens will continue to enter the market, and long-term supply dilution pressure needs attention. Fundamentals are also under pressure: protocol revenue dropped sharply by 66% year-over-year, weakening token buyback efforts, and the token price is highly sensitive to platform revenue changes; the trust crisis triggered by the previous plunge from $1.54 to $0.24 has not been fully digested yet.
Key price levels: Resistance at $0.42, a volume-backed effective breakout is needed to open repair space toward $0.45-$0.54; support at $0.35, if broken, the next target is $0.32.
$0.42 is the most important recent resistance zone, ⚠️ note the distinction: brief intraday spikes do not count as breakouts; volume support and K-line body stabilization are required for a valid signal. If multiple attempts to break through fail due to low volume, the consolidation pattern continues; 0.35 is the first short-term bullish defense line, and 0.32 is the last critical support for bulls.
For these low-circulation, highly volatile alt assets, the market can explode quickly but also reverse fast. Quick in and out is the trading baseline; they are not suitable for long-term heavy holdings.
This is a personal market analysis and information summary, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $EDGE
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
#Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% The selling I flagged is now a pattern, not a one-off. Strategy sold another 1,638 BTC, roughly half the size of its first sale, cutting holdings to about 842,138 BTC, and paired it with fresh share issuance to fund preferred dividends and buybacks. This is the second sale in weeks from a company whose entire brand was "never sell." The model is being managed in real time now.
Read it for what it is, not the headline. This isn't a bitcoin-conviction problem, it's a cash-flow one: a leveraged holder with dividends and debt is using its most liquid asset to meet obligations when the stock and coin aren't doing the heavy lifting. Selling BTC to fund dividends backed by more share issuance is a machine that works beautifully in a bull market and grinds in a flat one. Not a collapse, a maturing, and a live demonstration of why owning BTC and owning a BTC-treasury company are different risks. Watching whether the sales keep shrinking or keep coming.
Not advice, just analysis.
#StrategySellsMore #OKXOrbitISM hits a 4-year high.
But U.S. Treasury yields have fallen.
The market is trading an interesting signal:
The U.S. economy hasn't collapsed, but funds have already started betting on rate cuts.
The latest data shows the U.S. ISM manufacturing index rising to its highest level in nearly 4 years.
The normal logic should be:
Economy strengthens
↓
Inflation pressure increases
↓
Fed rate cuts become more difficult
↓
U.S. Treasury yields rise
But the market didn't follow this path this time.
After the data release, U.S. Treasury yields actually retreated.
Why?
Because investors are not focused on how strong the economy is today.
Instead, they are focused on:
Whether the Fed will start cutting rates in the coming months.
Now the market faces a contradiction:
On one hand:
✅ U.S. economic resilience remains
✅ Manufacturing improves
✅ Business activity rebounds
On the other hand:
⚠️ Inflation continues to decline
⚠️ Labor market cools down
⚠️ Rate cut expectations reheat
My view:
This is an important signal for risk assets.
If in the future we see:
Economy not bad + interest rates falling
This is usually the market’s favorite environment.
Because:
Stocks get growth support.
Crypto assets gain liquidity expectations.
But if data continues to be strong enough to make the Fed worry about inflation again,
the market logic could reverse.
So what we really need to watch now is not:
"Is the U.S. economy good or not."
But:
How long can the economy stay strong without preventing rate cuts.
This balance point
is the biggest trade for the market in the second half of the year.
Do you think the Fed will cut rates next, or keep rates high?
$BTC
#ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌 The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is the most important external macro factor affecting the blockchain and crypto financial markets. By adjusting US dollar interest rates, it changes global market liquidity and indirectly influences capital flows and risk appetite across the sector. When the FOMC sends a dovish signal and the market anticipates rate cuts, risk-free yields on U.S. Treasuries retreat, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Institutional funds have increased risk appetite, incremental funds will flow into crypto assets, benefiting large-cap coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Activity in DeFi, RWA, and other sectors will also rebound, with on-chain lending and trading volumes rising simultaneously. However, the market often experiences a "buy expectations, sell facts" phenomenon; after rate cuts actually take effect, corrections are more likely to materialize. Conversely, if the FOMC takes a hawkish stance and chooses to raise rates or maintain high rates, funding costs will rise significantly. A large amount of capital will withdraw from high-risk markets and flow back into fixed income products. The overall crypto market is under pressure, with highly volatile altcoins and MEME coins hit the hardest, prone to contract deleveraging and collective sell-offs. At the same time, on-chain DeFi lending willingness has decreased, new RWA projects have become more difficult to raise funds, and the pace of industry expansion has been suppressed. Different tracks have varying degrees of policy impact. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the most sensitive to interest rate changes; DeFi business is directly affected by funding costs; The RWA sector will follow changes in U.S. Treasury yields; The scale of stablecoin issuance and circulation will also be indirectly driven by US dollar liquidity. It is worth noting that market transactions often involve forecasts of future interest rates#From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's divisions fully exposed
From "cut rates" to "must hike" — the Fed's drama is even more exciting than a TV show
Last night, the Fed set the stage, keeping rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, holding steady for the fifth consecutive time. But the real drama wasn’t in the rate numbers, it was in the 9-3 vote result. Three dissenting votes—Hammond, Kashkari, and Logan—all advocated for a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three people voted against in the same meeting in the same direction.
Who are these three? They’re no pushovers.
Back in April, four of them jointly opposed the "dovish" language in the policy statement. Now they’ve escalated from "opposing dovish wording" to "voting to force a rate hike."
Hammond said inflation has been above target for five years and policy is far from tight enough; Kashkari said if we don’t hike now, we’ll be forced to hike aggressively later, which would be worse; Logan was even harsher, saying we can’t rely on a recession to break inflation. The three are united in one voice: we can’t wait any longer.
So what is Waller doing? He’s playing the "keep quiet" game.
He scrapped forward guidance, giving no hints on the rate path. At the press conference, he said, "Market participants are learning to watch the game, not the referee" — in plain English: don’t ask me, guess yourself. He even framed this decision as a "cautious assessment phase," refusing to call it a "pause."
How did the market react? It split right down the middle.
Short-term Treasury yields fell because there was no hike today. But the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.23%, a 19-year high. The short end is signaling "no hike today," while the long end is pricing in "inflation out of control." The Dow dropped over 1100 points. One meeting, two completely different market signals.
What’s the most ironic?
The three dissenting votes equal a "shadow dot plot." Waller wanted to kill forward guidance, but the voting split itself became the strongest forward guidance.
Six months ago, the forecast was still "possible rate cuts this year," now the probability of a hike in September is very high. From "cutting rates" to "hiking rates," in half a year, expectations have completely reversed.
These people sit in the same room, arguing like a "family dispute," but the market can only see the vote result and can’t guess the next move. The less information, the greater the panic, and the higher long-term yields get pushed by that panic.
Speaking frankly from the heart.
When the Fed used to provide guidance, the market fluctuated but at least had an anchor. Now Waller has thrown away the anchor and let the market price itself. The problem is — the market’s own pricing often ends up more extreme than the Fed’s guidance.
30-year Treasury at 5.23% is a vote with feet saying "I don’t believe you can control inflation." The three dissenting votes are a vote saying "I don’t believe it either."
When a central bank chair, a quarter of the voting members, and half the bond market aren’t on the same page — what we’re facing is no longer just an interest rate issue, it’s a trust issue.
Purely personal speculation, not any advice
$BTC #Amazon3TrillionClub
Amazon just crossed the $3 trillion market cap threshold for the first time, becoming the fifth company in history to hit that mark — joining Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Shares jumped roughly 5% on Monday to a fresh all-time high near $285-287, extending a two-session rally that started with a 15% pop the previous Friday. The catalyst was a blowout Q2 earnings report: AWS revenue hit $42.2 billion, blowing past the $40.5 billion expected, with operating margins at 39%. Total revenue came in at $200.6 billion versus $196.5 billion forecast, and adjusted EPS of $1.97 beat estimates of $1.82. CEO Andy Jassy told investors demand is so strong that even with rising capacity, "we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026" — and said early demand signals for 2028 are already "striking."
What makes the milestone notable is the pace: Amazon took just over two years to go from $2 trillion to $3 trillion, compared to more than six years to go from $1 trillion to $2 trillion — a sign of how fast AI-driven cloud demand is compounding valuations. The move also came with a cost: Amazon raised its 2026 capex guidance to $220 billion, up from $200 billion, mostly to fund data centers and AI infrastructure. That's part of a broader divide this earnings season — Amazon and Microsoft have been rewarded by investors for their AI spending, while Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla all saw shares fall after reporting similarly heavy AI investment, showing the market isn't paying for capex alone anymore — it wants proof the spending converts into revenue. This week, U.S. stocks entered the most critical earnings window of the year. The three core themes—AI computing power, space technology, and crypto liquidity—are all interlocking, with AMD and SPCX leading the showdown, and Circle closing the showdown. These three financial reports are not just individual stock report cards, but also the main switches for global technology valuations, risk appetite, and market liquidity. 1. AMD: The True Touchstone of AI Computing Power Prosperity This round of AI sector corrections has been around for a long time; the market is no longer a "bullish story" but focuses on earnest results. Market consensus expectation: revenue of 11.3 billion yuan, EPS nearly doubling year-on-year. But the key point is not whether the standards are met, but three core data points: 1. The actual shipment volume of MI series AI chips to verify whether the supply of secondary computing power beyond NVIDIA is truly starting to grow; 2. Can gross margin stabilize? In today's intensified AI hardware competition, profit represents the industry's value more than revenue; 3. Q3 forward-looking guidance: decide whether institutions will raise their full-year AI computing power forecasts again. In short: AMD's earnings report beats expectations = AI sector collectively recovers; AMD's earnings report falls short of expectations = global AI capital spending cools, and high tech valuations are collectively under pressure. It is the temperature switch for this week's tech market. 2. SPCX: First Exam to Listing + Epic Unlock, The Biggest Life-or-Death Match of the Year The real highlight this week isn't the financial report, but the dual pressure test of earnings + massive volume unlock. As the first official quarterly report after listing, the market faces SPCX's true assets for the first time: Starlink revenue growth, cash flow cash generation capacity, AI and Starship cash burn rate, and commerce🚨 Four major earnings reports are set to shape market sentiment next week—but for crypto, one stands above the rest.
Palantir, AMD, SpaceX (SPCX), and Circle (CRCL) will report earnings in succession. While the first three provide insight into AI and broader tech demand, Circle's results could offer the clearest read on institutional activity in the crypto market.
Here's what to watch:
📌 Palantir AI demand from governments and enterprises. Strong order growth would reinforce confidence in the AI sector.
📌 AMD AI chip revenue, customer demand, and capital expenditure guidance. A key indicator for the health of the AI infrastructure cycle.
📌 SpaceX (SPCX) Its first earnings report since listing, alongside a major share unlock. Watch Starlink revenue, cash burn, and Starship progress. As a high-beta growth stock, sentiment could spill over into broader risk assets.
📌 Circle (CRCL) — The Crypto Focus Q2 earnings are expected on August 5. The most important metrics include:
• USDC circulation
• Reserve income
• Distribution costs
• Progress on regulatory and trust license initiatives
With crypto revenues softening at some major platforms and USDT growth slowing, the market is asking one key question:
Are institutions leaving crypto—or simply rotating into regulated stablecoins while waiting for the next opportunity?
Possible signals:
✅ USDC supply increases: Suggests institutional capital remains active and may be positioning for future market participation.
⚠️ USDC supply declines: Could indicate tighter liquidity and a more cautious institutional environment.
Circle's earnings may not trigger an immediate market breakout, but they could provide valuable insight into the liquidity backdrop that shapes crypto's next major move.
This is my personal market view, not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH $CRCL $SPCX #DailyOrbit #Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum
#BigTechEarningsWatch #CLARITYAct72Hours #USJapanYenIntervention #From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's divisions fully exposed
Will the Federal Reserve cut or raise rates in September?
Currently, a rare split has emerged within the Fed: Waller is on the side of cutting rates, believing that risks are accumulating in the labor market, and if high interest rates are maintained, the policy adjustment window might be missed. He supports a 25 basis point cut in September. On the other hand, officials like Logan and Kashkari stand for rate hikes, with a simple core reason—the inflation rate has not truly returned to 2%, and the policy restrictions might still be insufficient.
This is like a ship encountering two ocean currents. On one side, inflation is a heavy stone pressing on the stern, reminding the Fed not to let go too early; on the other side, the undercurrent in the labor market is approaching, reminding policy makers not to focus only on past data but to prevent a sudden economic slowdown in the future.
For the September FOMC, I lean towards a 25 basis point rate cut.
There are three main reasons.
First, the direction of inflation has begun to change. Although it is still some distance from the 2% target, the June PCE has already shown a month-on-month decline, and the year-on-year rate fell from 4.1% to 3.7%, indicating that the past high interest rates are starting to transmit their demand-suppressing effects. If the next two CPI reports continue to show cooling trends, the necessity for the Fed to maintain high rates will decrease.
Second, the labor market is becoming the biggest variable. The Fed does not only look at inflation; it has a "dual mandate." For the past two years, the market has been worried about inflation, but now the biggest risk is shifting from "price increases" to "employment deterioration." If unemployment starts to rise and companies slow hiring, the Fed cutting rates again might shift from a proactive choice to a reactive firefighting measure.
Third, and most importantly, policy cycles often do not wait for all data to be perfectly confirmed before acting. Monetary policy has a lag effect; if rate cuts wait until the economy clearly cools, it might already be too late. Waller’s early signaling of rate cuts is essentially trying to gain policy space.
Of course, the hawkish side also has logic. Rising oil prices, fiscal stimulus, and economic resilience could cause inflation to rebound. If future CPI unexpectedly bounces back, expectations for a September rate cut could quickly collapse.
But at this point in time, I am more willing to bet on a Fed rate cut in September rather than a hike.
The reason is simple: inflation is slowly receding, while employment risks are turning from distant dark clouds into shadows overhead. The Fed will not wait for a downpour to close the umbrella; it is more likely to adjust early when it sees the clouds approaching.
For the market, if a rate cut really happens in September, the biggest beneficiaries might be risk assets, including U.S. stocks and Bitcoin. Because the market is not trading the 25 basis points themselves, but a signal—that the Fed’s policy turning point may have begun.
But if CPI heats up again and the Fed remains hawkish, the market may face a correction in expectations.
Therefore, the next two CPI reports are the final arbiters deciding the direction in September. The market now stands at a crossroads, and CPI is the signpost determining the way.
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