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$BTC Bitcoin intraday surged to a high of 64249, testing the upper resistance zone. This rally was mainly driven by short-term short covering, and after the surge, it clearly faced heavy profit-taking pressure.
Around 64200 has now become the first strong resistance. To continue strengthening, it must hold this level with increased volume; if multiple attempts fail to break through, there is a high probability of a pullback after the surge.
Short-term support focuses on the 63000 level; holding here will maintain a range-bound market; once effectively broken, the correction space will further open.
The biggest current risk is that the rally's volume cannot keep up, indicating a sentiment-driven rebound rather than sustained inflow of new funds. Do not blindly chase the price at the top; if the surge fails to break through, beware of a bull trap risk and prepare stop-loss plans. $ETH $SOL ##MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 #ISMBeatYieldsFall
Manufacturing data came in far hotter than expected on Monday. The ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 in July, up sharply from 53.3 in June and well above the 54.0 consensus forecast — marking the strongest reading since May 2022 and the seventh straight month of expansion. The strength ran across the board: output growth hit its fastest pace since late 2021, new orders kept climbing, and the employment index moved back into expansion territory for the first time since January 2025. Businesses front-loading orders to dodge tariff and supply-chain risks tied to Middle East tensions, plus continued AI-driven capital spending, both helped drive the surge.
Normally a beat this strong would push Treasury yields higher on inflation concerns, but yields actually fell — and the reason had little to do with manufacturing at all. The bigger market movers Monday were geopolitical: President Trump signaled that a planned strike on Iran had been called off amid progress in negotiations, and Japan and the U.S. announced a joint intervention to prop up a sliding yen. Oil retreated on the Iran news, and that combination — easing energy costs plus the currency intervention — pulled yields down even as the hard economic data pointed to a stronger, more inflationary economy. It's a reminder that yields aren't just reading domestic data right now; geopolitics and currency policy are driving the tape just as much. #MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, halving the scale
MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, halving the scale — this is not bearish on BTC, but Saylor admitting defeat to save face first
Strategy (MSTR) 8-K filed on August 3: sold 1,638 BTC from 7/27 to 8/2 at an average price of $63,957, cashing out about $104.7 million; after selling, 842,138 BTC remain, but the overall holding cost is $75,419 — this sale is genuinely below the cost line.
The key is not "selling coins again," but three signals:
1) Halving the scale: last time at the end of June to early July, sold 3,588 BTC in one go; this time 1,638 BTC, the pace is slowing but not stopping. This shows it’s not a full exit but selling as much as needed to cover "preferred stock dividends + STRC buybacks" (this time $52.4 million paid in dividends, $52.3 million in preferred stock buybacks).
2) Selling despite cost inversion: BTC current price is over $62,000, holding average cost is $75,400, a book loss of $11,000 per coin. Previously the slogan was "never sell coins," now to maintain the 12% STRC preferred stock dividend rate, they cut coins first to preserve USD reserves (already accumulated to $4 billion).
3) MSTR’s Beta attribute is deteriorating: it used to be synonymous with "BTC leveraged long," now it’s a "financial company using BTC to pay interest in USD." When BTC rises, it may not rise proportionally; when BTC falls, it has to sell coins to cover the gap — many haven’t realized this reflexivity.
My judgment:
Short term is neutral to slightly bearish — a leading listed company actively reducing holdings, even if the scale is small, will suppress the sentiment recovery brought by ETF inflows;
But don’t interpret this as "institutions exiting BTC," it’s selling its own high-cost old holdings to exchange for USD reserves, BTC pricing power has been handed over to spot ETFs (yesterday BTC ETF still had a net inflow of $170 million). MSTR is no longer the sole anchor, just the first old whale forced by preferred stock interest to active management.
Next, watch two things:
• After USD reserves reach $4 billion, whether it continues weekly coin sales (authorized limit around $1.25 billion)
• Whether BTC can hold steady above $62,000, so MSTR doesn’t have to accelerate selling#MSTRSells1638BTC
Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) did something it has rarely done in its Bitcoin-buying history — it sold. According to an SEC 8-K filing, the company offloaded 1,638 BTC between July 27 and August 2 at an average price of $63,957 per coin, raising about $104.7 million. That brought total holdings down to 842,138 BTC, still worth roughly $52.6 billion, though the position carries close to $10.9 billion in unrealized losses at current prices. Alongside the Bitcoin sale, Strategy also sold 3.01 million MSTR shares for $290.6 million, using the combined proceeds to fund preferred-stock dividends, buy back STRC shares, and push its USD cash reserve up to $4 billion.
The move comes right after Strategy posted an $8.33 billion operating loss for Q2, driven largely by unrealized losses on its Bitcoin treasury, and with MSTR shares down about 40% year-to-date. Analysts read this less as a retreat from Bitcoin and more as a liquidity rebalancing — the company is now leaning on multiple funding channels (share issuance, bitcoin sales, and cash reserves) to cover its expensive 12% dividend obligations on STRC preferred stock. Still, the split among Wall Street analysts tells the real story: TD Cowen kept a bullish $260 price target, while Benchmark cut its target from $570 to $435 after lowering its bitcoin price forecast — leaving investors to decide whether this is smart treasury management or an early crack in Saylor's all-in bitcoin strategy. Concerns about capital expenditures from mega cloud providers were partially clarified during earnings season, but semiconductor equipment sector stock prices remain stuck at lows following the July crash.
The US stock market hit new highs driven by institutional buying, but capital replenishment along the semiconductor supply chain has been very restrained, with equipment leader $LRCX still unable to regain lost ground.
Amazon and Microsoft's earnings reports show revenue growth has started to outpace capital expenditure growth, fundamentally overturning previous market pessimism about excessive compute capacity buildout.
Since institutional funds are currently prioritizing software sectors with higher cash flow visibility, expectations for performance improvement on the equipment side have yet to be reflected in $LRCX's pricing.
If this week's AMD and SNDK earnings further confirm that downstream demand has not contracted, valuation mismatches will be corrected, driving a catch-up rally in the equipment sector; however, a large outflow from the software sector would mean this path fails.
If chipmakers' earnings this week disappoint, the market's ongoing semiconductor devaluation will continue, potentially causing the equipment sector to face a second bottom unless nonfarm payroll data shows a mild cooling to offset risk appetite decline.
The core of the current bull-bear divergence lies in whether equipment orders' recovery can translate into definite earnings growth in Q3; any rumors of order cuts in the supply chain would directly disprove the catch-up rally logic.
The key variable to watch in the coming days is institutional fund position changes in the semiconductor sector following AMD's earnings release.
#贝莱德推两只基金，专供稳定币储备 #韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成，波幅收窄$SNDK August 3 Market Trend Review
SanDisk yesterday experienced an extremely exciting deep V-shaped reversal. It opened sharply lower, dipping to around $1121. Many thought it would continue to weaken, but suddenly funds entered to buy the dip, pushing the price up with fluctuations.
It ultimately closed with a strong gain of 6.03%, finishing at $1288.03. The total trading volume for the day was nearly $18.5 billion, with a turnover rate exceeding 10%, indicating very high heat in capital competition.
This rise is not an isolated stock event but a collective counterattack by the entire storage chip sector.
Global NAND flash contract prices continue to rise, AI computing power demands for high-speed storage keep increasing, and the industry's supply-demand structure is improving, providing strong fundamental support for storage stocks.
However, it should be noted that SanDisk had a significant pullback from its previous high, so this rebound is more of a recovery after overselling.
This morning before the market opened, the storage sector saw a slight pullback, with many profit-taking funds choosing to cash out. Short-term fluctuations will increase, making it difficult to start a continuous one-sided rally directly.
#美日确认联合购汇 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The most dangerous trader in the afternoon session isn't the one chasing green candles or stubbornly holding bags. It's the one who took profits, then couldn't stop revenge-adding. That cycle ends badly more often than not. 🎯
BTC remains the main character. Alts only move when BTC gives them permission. Here's the roadmap:
Below 63,700 = momentum fading
Below 62,700 = leveraged longs under pressure
Losing 62,500 = liquidation risk spikes
ETH core zone: 1,620–1,650
Reclaiming 1,650 = alts can breathe again
Losing 1,620 = structure broken
Watch the majors for confirmation:
$SOL under 80 = high beta gets risky
$BNB under 580 = market pulling back
$DOGE under 0.071 = $PEPE $WIF $BONK become untouchable
Capital rotation is live: $WLD $TAO $KAITO $ZEC $HYPE $ENA
High-volatility names to respect: $GIGGLE $BEAT $LAB $RAVE $HOME $LIGHT $PEOPLE $OFC $AEVO $GRVT — expect violent swings both ways.
Before entering any position, ask yourself:
Is the move extended or fresh?
Is volume confirming price, or is this just a spike?
Does the risk-to-reward still make sense?
Taking profit is easy. Keeping it is the actual skill. Don't chase the first green candle. Don't catch a falling knife. Patience beats FOMO every single time ⏳
Not financial advice. Manage your risk tightly 📌
#DailyOrbit #30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention $BTC#MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, scale halved
Strategy disclosed another sale of 1,638 BTC, cashing out about $104.7 million. Combined with previous reductions, this round's selling scale is directly halved compared to the last round, with holdings falling back to 842,138 BTC.
The use of funds is very clear: to pay STRC preferred stock dividends and repurchase shares, which is an operational monetization under the new capital framework, not a panic sell-off.
The market now shows two extreme views
🔻Pessimistic perspective: The myth of "only hoarding, no selling" is completely shattered.
The once largest institutional buyer of Bitcoin has turned into a potential seller. As long as dividend pressure exists, there will be continuous selling expectations, which will suppress the BTC buying narrative in the long term and bring persistent selling pressure risks to the market.
🔺Optimistic perspective: This is dynamic management at the financial level.
Selling coins is only to resolve internal dividend liabilities and does not abandon the main Bitcoin reserve strategy. When the market recovers, ATM buy-the-dip will resume; short-term reductions do not change the long-term strategy.
Personal view: do not overhype panic, but also do not underestimate the narrative impact.
1. A single sale of 1,638 BTC is a very small proportion of the total holding of over 840,000 BTC, so the immediate market impact is limited. The real risk is not this single sale but opening the door to normalized reductions.
The market used to firmly believe MSTR was a continuous buyer; now it has become "selling coins to repay debt when the market is bad," shaking the foundation of institutional faith.
2. The core contradiction comes from the high dividend pressure of preferred stock.
As long as this capital structure remains unchanged, there is a continuous monetization incentive regardless of coin price. Key points to watch next: whether the authorized selling quota will continue to increase and whether the ATM buy coin plan will be suspended.
If new purchases stop, it means the market loses one of the most important sources of spot volume, with medium- to long-term impacts far greater than a single sale.
In the short term, this is mostly emotional disturbance, unlikely to trigger a large-scale drop directly.
But in the current stagnant environment, losing MSTR as a benchmark buyer means bulls lose a strong narrative anchor.
Do not blindly bottom-fish; focus on two points:
① Whether continuous reductions occur over multiple weeks;
② Whether there is an official announcement to suspend ATM buy-the-dip. #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
Goldman Sachs data is out: last week hedge funds bought a large amount of U.S. tech stocks, with inflows hitting the largest since December 2022 and the third largest weekly purchase volume in at least five years. Demand was strongest for companies related to software, semiconductors, and equipment, with hardware also rising. The seven giants were net bought for four consecutive days.
This is not panic buying, but targeted position building.
The logic makes sense: progress in U.S.-Iran talks caused oil prices to drop 7%, inflation expectations fell accordingly, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve, so risk assets rose first as a courtesy. Additionally, earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, and Google confirmed the narrative that "AI investments are turning into revenue," with capital expenditures under control and growth continuing. Hedge funds are buying not because it's "cheap," but because of "certainty."
But one detail is worth pondering—while hedge funds concentrated on buying tech stocks, what were retail investors doing? Over the past week, retail investors net sold tech stocks, especially focusing on Tesla and Apple. On one side institutions are buying, on the other retail is selling. Chips are moving from dispersed to concentrated.
Another structural observation—Palantir delivered 93% revenue growth and a 12% after-hours rise. This is no coincidence; it signals the AI software track beginning to pay off. Essentially, Palantir uses AI to help enterprises solve real problems, not "how many GPUs I have." This contrasts with Google and Tesla's AI narrative: one is "how much I invested," the other is "what I solved." Two logics, two pricing methods.
So when hedge funds concentrate on buying tech stocks, they may be buying not just "next week's rebound," but the core narrative entering Q3—AI is no longer priced solely by "computing power," but the value of software and services is gradually being recognized by the market. Palantir is just a signal; more names will validate this line going forward. As for how long the U.S. tech giants' rise can continue, the key lies in how much actual incremental revenue AI can bring these companies in the coming quarters. This question will likely be repeatedly tested in the upcoming earnings season.
$GOOGL $TSLA $QQQ #Palantir revenue up 93%, after-hours rise of 13%
I'm Cige, Palantir delivered an earnings report that silenced the bears. Revenue reached $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year, with a 13% after-hours increase. The full-year guidance was raised to $8.15 billion, and U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year. The stock price had fallen 29% this year but reversed in a single day with a 93% growth earnings report.
Palantir is confirming one thing:
The real demand for AI applications is materializing, not just hype. The 149% growth in U.S. commercial revenue shows enterprises are buying AI products in bulk. The significant upward revision in guidance means demand visibility is extending. Palantir’s 13% gain set the tone for earnings season; the quarterly numbers are just the entry ticket, the guidance sets the price.
Impact on BTC:
Palantir’s beat directly boosts AI-related sentiment. If AMD delivers strong results tonight and tech stocks continue to rally, BTC, as a high-beta asset, will benefit in sync. If AMD misses expectations, sentiment may dip short-term, but the fundamental AI demand remains intact. The optical communication and storage sectors have recently led the rebound; after Palantir confirmed AI application demand, certainty around compute hardware demand will only strengthen.
What’s next:
Palantir confirmed AI application demand, AMD will validate AI chip demand tonight, SpaceX will validate Starlink’s profitability, and Circle will validate the stablecoin business model. Palantir’s 13% gain has already set an example for the market; if the others can replicate it, the entire tech sector’s sentiment will be fully restored.
Cige is done. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK House rental income, $BTC revaluation: Cardone Capital puts two types of “hard assets” on the same balance sheet
The latest news is that real estate investment company Cardone Capital has added 350 $BTC to its holdings, valued at approximately $22.3 million at the time of disclosure. CEO Grant Cardone also presented a memorable combination: 350 Class A real estate units plus 350 bitcoins, stating that real estate prices are below replacement cost and $BTC is below mining cost, now waiting for the market to reprice.
Let's first calculate the most direct figure.
$22.3 million divided by 350 $BTC corresponds to a per-coin valuation of about $63,714. For every 1% fluctuation in bitcoin, the book value of this holding changes by about $223,000; a 10% rise or fall corresponds to about a $2.23 million change. For a traditional real estate investment company, this is no longer a symbolic allocation tucked away in a corner, but an asset that requires separate management of volatility and liquidity.
Interestingly, this combination is not simply a “real estate company starting to speculate on crypto.”
Real estate generates relatively predictable cash flow through rent, occupancy rates, and financing costs, but transactions are slow and liquidation cycles are long; $BTC has no rent but offers global liquidity, 24/7 trading, and a fixed issuance cap. Combining the two is equivalent to using real estate to provide a cash flow base, while bitcoin adds liquidity and upside elasticity to the asset side.
Of course, risks are also bundled in.
If the 350 Class A units can continuously generate rent, the company can reduce the probability of being forced to sell $BTC; but if real estate valuations decline, refinancing costs rise, and bitcoin experiences a significant drawdown, the two asset types may resonate under liquidity pressure. Especially since the specific valuations, debt ratios, and cash flow data of the 350 “Class A units” are not disclosed in the screenshot, it is impossible to judge whether the real estate side can truly cover bitcoin volatility based on quantity alone.
As for the phrase “$BTC below mining cost,” I would view it cautiously. Miners’ electricity prices, mining machine efficiency, depreciation methods, and regional costs vary, so there is no single unified mining cost line across the entire market. Therefore, this seems more like Grant Cardone’s allocation logic rather than a verified unified valuation standard.
What is truly worth observing are the follow-up actions: Is this 350 $BTC a one-time allocation or part of a continuous accumulation plan? Are funds coming from real estate cash flow, debt financing, or fundraising products? Has the company set up custody, stop-loss, or asset ratio limits?
If more and more real estate companies adopt the “rental cash flow + $BTC reserve” structure, the bitcoin treasury narrative could spread from tech companies and mining enterprises to traditional physical asset industries. Then the market discussion will no longer be just about 350 BTC, but a new balance sheet template.
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice, DYOR.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #BigTechEarningsWatch This earnings season didn't just deliver numbers — it delivered a verdict on the AI spending race, and the market split Big Tech into clear winners and losers. Microsoft and Amazon came out on top, with shares jumping 16% and 10% respectively. Amazon's strength came from AWS, which grew 37% to over $200 billion in quarterly revenue, and the company doubled down by committing another $35 billion to OpenAI. Alphabet had already set the tone the week before, posting an 82% jump in Google Cloud growth — though even that report came with a catch, as management raised 2026 capex guidance toward roughly $200 billion.
On the other side, Meta and Apple got punished. Meta's margins came in weaker than expected, and its only slight bump to 2026 capex guidance wasn't enough to convince investors — the stock fell 10% despite the modest increase in spending plans. Apple and South Korea's KOSPI also dropped, down 4% and nearly 18%. The pattern across the board is clear: spending on AI is no longer enough on its own to satisfy Wall Street — companies now need to show that spending is translating into actual demand and revenue. Nvidia's report on August 26, the last of the "Magnificent Seven" to release results, is shaping up to be the season's final word on whether the AI trade still holds. Faith Fades! MicroStrategy Continues Selling Coins, Why Is This Sell-off Scale Halved? #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 $BTC
Many focus only on the number 1638, but overlook a key clue: this round of sell-off is significantly smaller than the previous one, indicating a subtle shift in market sentiment.
Once recognized in the circle as the benchmark of Bitcoin faith, MSTR has long left the era of "only holding, no selling." Continuous selling is no longer a rumor but has become normalized. This time, selling 1638 BTC is to cover fixed dividend payments on preferred shares, a rigid cash flow demand.
Let's clarify two core facts:
1. In terms of volume, 1638 coins represent a very small proportion of total holdings, so there is no risk of concentrated liquidation; the long-term whale base remains solid;
2. However, once the precedent is set, the value of faith is irreversibly damaged. As long as STRC preferred shares continue to have dividend pressure, selling coins to realize cash will repeatedly occur during market downturns.
The obvious reduction in this sell-off scale is a signal worth noting.
Two capital interpretations are on the table:
Bearish view: The normalization of selling is confirmed. As long as the coin price continues to consolidate or decline, intermittent selling will continue, providing ongoing potential selling pressure to the market; the strongest institutional narrative supporting Bitcoin is weakened, adding natural resistance to upward movement.
Bullish view: The halving of sell-off scale represents management deliberately controlling the selling pace to avoid a stampede. They do not intend to dump at any cost; it is tactical cash flow management, not a bearish view on Bitcoin's long-term value.
The reality of the market won't be extreme.
In the short term, news is easily used by bears to create emotional panic, triggering short-term traps and washouts;
In the medium to long term, people should abandon old perceptions: no longer treat MSTR as a mindless perpetual buy bullish flag. It has transformed into a dynamic asset manager, selling at highs and potentially increasing holdings at lows depending on circumstances, with buying and selling fully serving its own debt and capital plans.
⚠️Key indicators to watch going forward:
① Whether the frequency and scale of subsequent sell-offs increase again;
② Whether selling stops and buying resumes when Bitcoin price approaches MSTR's holding cost range;
③ Changes in the correlation between MSTR stock price and BTC.
Do not rely solely on MSTR's buying and selling to judge price movements. Whale actions are emotional catalysts but cannot determine trends. This round's halving of scale means the bulls and bears have reached a balance stage, making it difficult for a one-sided market to quickly start in the short term; oscillation and repetition will become the norm South Korea has truly gone all out this time to preserve its semiconductor crown. According to Korean media reports, for regions designated as semiconductor industry clusters, the South Korean government will use national fiscal funds to cover all costs required for building infrastructure such as electricity and water resources. These detailed rules clarify the matters authorized for enactment by the Special Semiconductor Law. The bill was passed by Congress in January this year, laying the institutional foundation for systematic support in the semiconductor supply chain. How strong is the support? According to regulations, the central and local governments must bear at least 50% of the total project cost for the construction and operation of semiconductor industry clusters, and up to 100%. In addition, the government can prioritize supporting talent recruitment and matching for semiconductor companies outside the capital region, as well as projects such as local professional talent training and job transfer training. Why is the government willing to "take full responsibility"? South Korea relies on imports for 94% of its energy, and about 72% of its crude oil comes from the Middle East—after disruptions in navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, energy costs directly impacted semiconductor manufacturing. Meanwhile, AI chip demand is experiencing a structural explosion, with SK Hynix's HBM capacity sold out ahead of schedule. Holding onto semiconductors means preserving South Korea's economic lifeline. This time, the "Special Committee for Strengthening Semiconductor Industry Competitiveness," directly under the President, manages the overall management and formulates and implements a basic plan every five years. This means that South Korea's national-level strategy in AI storage has entered a comprehensive stage of funding and operational implementation at the policy level. South Korea has raised its semiconductor infrastructure level to the level of "the nation is responsible for 100% of the total."CARDS stands out quite a bit on today's leaderboard, rising 12.86 points in 24 hours, quoted at $0.1597, with an intraday high of $0.1628 and an opening price around $0.1307. On the surface, it looks like a very nice bullish candle, but a quick glance at OKX's real-time transaction data reveals something off: the trading volume shows 0.0B, and the amplitude shows 0.0%. In technical analysis, this set of data is more alarming than the price itself. What does this mean? It doesn't mean there are literally zero trades, but that the token's liquidity pool is extremely shallow, and the on-chain market maker's order book lacks depth. This causes the price to be pushed up, but actual turnover is very thin. The high touched $0.1628 and low opened $0.1307 imply a theoretical amplitude close to 24%, yet the system cannot capture effective amplitude statistics, indicating most price movements happen in a very short time frame, possibly just a few medium-sized buy orders pushing the price up. This kind of volume-shrinking price surge is a classic liquidity trap in technical analysis. Comparing with ROBO nearby, the situation is similar: it rose 11.19 points, quoted at $0.0127, with trading volume also showing 0.0B. Two small-cap coins simultaneously appearing at the top of the gainers list indicates market sentiment is tilting towards altcoin gambling, which is not a good sign. SATS, on the other hand, shows a real trading volume of 75294.1B but fell 6.35 points; its price decimals beyond the fourth digit are all zeros, showing the precision is insufficient to express the current price level, and retail participation is visibly retreating. Looking back at CARDS, judging by the candlestick pattern alone, the rise from $0.13 to $0.16 has almost no lower shadow, suggesting strong bulls, but the MACD's reference value on such a low-liquidity asset is discounted. I tried to find support on OKX's depth chart; there are scattered orders around $0.14, but the depth is less than the equivalent of two BTC, and only below $0.12 does a somewhat decent buy wall appear. This means if profit-taking surges, $0.14 won't hold; real support needs to be down near $0.12. The RSI currently hovers around 72 on the 4-hour level, overbought but not extreme. The key issue is the divergence between volume and price is too obvious; volume-less rallies historically perform poorly in crypto. Many low-quality coins last year had similar charts before going to zero: prices still hitting new highs while volume had shrunk to negligible levels. This doesn't mean CARDS will definitely follow the same path, but the technical structure presents an uncomfortable risk-reward ratio. Regarding market sentiment, the greed and fear index has been fluctuating between 35 and 40 recently, still in the fear zone overall, but altcoins are starting to show this kind of volume-less agitation, indicating the only short-term funds left in the market are trying to ignite local hotspots to attract liquidity back. This behavior usually occurs during a stalemate phase after a downtrend; most ignition attempts fail, and a few that succeed last three to five days before collapsing quickly. CARDS's current surge has lasted less than 24 hours and is still in the "starting momentum" phase, but the zero trading volume exposes a serious lack of follow-up buying, suggesting the main force might be pumping it themselves. If you already hold CARDS, don't expect much higher than $0.16; liquidity visibility is too poor, and the window to exit might be very narrow. For those outside, don't be tempted by this bullish candle; a 12-point gain on a low-liquidity asset is often just a mirage on the candlestick chart. By the time you see the price and want to buy in, slippage and actual transaction prices will cost you much more than expected. The accompanying image looks like a cluster of skyscrapers in financial centers like New York or Hong Kong, with glass curtain walls reflecting blue skies and distant mountain outlines. This scene fits CARDS's current chart well: glamorous from afar, but liquidity hollow like those office buildings with high vacancy rates up close. Another natural landscape image shows a wide lake and layered mountains, serving as a reminder to traders that most of the time, the market requires vision and patience, not chasing short-term opportunities in liquidity-drained assets. Short-term directional judgment: CARDS is bearish; technical indicators and volume structure do not support a trending rise. The mid-term trend depends on whether the $0.12 support holds; if broken, below $0.10 is a reasonable re-pricing range. The above analysis is not investment advice; please make trading decisions independently. According to the position data provided by the parties involved, the three losses were $659,511, $604,523, and $434,158 respectively, totaling approximately $1.698 million. The harshest part is not just the plunge of $DEXE, but that the entire loss process almost covered all the common pitfalls retail investors are prone to: believing in the narrative at a high price, continuously averaging down during the decline, upgrading spot risk to leveraged risk, and finally encountering a sudden liquidity disappearance. DEXE rose to $49.43 on July 12, then started to fall on July 13; on July 21, it quickly dropped from around $46.93 to $5.65, with a maximum single-day drop of about 88%. By July 24, the price bottomed near $1.56, with an 11-day cumulative retracement of 96.8%. This is no longer an ordinary "correction." When a coin can drop 80% within a few hours, it indicates that the order book supporting the high valuation is much thinner than the market imagines. Once a large sell order appears, stop-losses, liquidations, market maker cancellations, and bottom-fishing stop-losses will push each other, causing the price not to fall step by step, but to directly seek the next level where there are real buy orders. How was $1.7 million lost step by step? Looking at the three positions together makes the problem clearer. The first spot cost was $36.69, the second spot cost was $21.05, and then a full 3x long position was opened at $11.84. This sequence shows that the trader was not wrong at a single position, but continued to increase risk even after the price repeatedly proved the original judgment invalid.The whale starting with 0xf17 began synchronously selling HYPE spot today and buying to close an equal amount of perpetual short positions, planning to continue exiting the carry trade positions.
Previously, this address held HYPE spot and contract short positions at nearly a 1:1 ratio, earning positive funding rates by hedging price fluctuations. Based on the pre-reduction position of about 146,800 tokens, both legs have now decreased to approximately 107,900 tokens, each reduced by nearly 39,000 tokens, a decline of about 26.5%.
Currently, two ongoing TWAP orders plan to handle a total of 90,000 HYPE:
- About 33,200 tokens have been sold on the spot side, with a transaction amount of approximately $1.8 million;
- About 33,100 tokens of short positions have been closed on the contract side, with a transaction amount of approximately $1.795 million.
Together with previously completed orders, the current round of contract short positions has cumulatively decreased by about 39,000 tokens. The current nominal value of spot and short positions is about $5.87 million each, with a total size of about $11.74 million, reduced by approximately $4.24 million compared to before the reduction.
As the whale exits positions, HYPE carry trade yields have also fallen from highs. According to daily statistics: the cumulative funding rate of HYPE dropped from +0.02790% on August 1 to +0.02227% on August 3, a decrease of about 20.2%;
In the last 4 hours: the cumulative funding rate also decreased by 19.1% compared to the previous 4 hours. Based on the current short position size, the estimated daily gross funding income has dropped from about $1,638 to $1,308.
According to weekly statistics: from July 28 to August 3, the cumulative funding rate was about +0.17803%, 16.9% lower than the high week of July 14 to 20 at +0.21425%.
HYPE funding rate is currently reported at +0.0013%, with an expected annualized yield of about 10.9%. #亚马逊市值破3万亿，500亿押注先赢一局
Let's start with what everyone is interested in: currently, Amazon is not expensive given its performance fulfillment support and future outlook, even trading 44% below its past levels. Institutions have given it a buy rating, and market funds may be positioning towards cloud enterprises.
The U.S. tech giant Amazon $XAMZN has reached a historic moment:
Its stock price surge pushed the company's market value to surpass the $3 trillion mark for the first time, making it the fifth company in global history to join the “$3 Trillion Club,” following Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple.
With AWS cloud computing business achieving its fastest growth since 2021 in Q2, and hundreds of billions deeply invested and floating profits in the AI field, Amazon has successfully delivered results in the AI mid-game battle, winning a crucial round.
First point, breakthrough: joining the $3 trillion super-giant club
Reviewing Amazon's market value evolution:
From $1 trillion to $2 trillion: first crossed $1 trillion at the end of 2018, then surpassed $2 trillion by June 2024, taking about 6 years.
From $2 trillion to $3 trillion: from June 2024's $2 trillion to now $3 trillion, it took just over 2 years.
In recent months, due to market concerns over tech giants’ "excessive generative AI capital expenditure and delayed monetization pace," Amazon's stock price once fell nearly 18% from its peak. However, with the strong Q2 earnings report, market panic was completely reversed by solid performance delivery.
Second point, catalyst: AWS returns to high-speed growth, Q2 report triggers single-day surge
What caused the market's 180-degree turnaround was Amazon's latest Q2 earnings report:
Core financial indicators far exceeded expectations
Net sales: reached $200.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year
Operating profit: reached $27.5 billion, up 43% year-over-year
AWS profit powerhouse explodes
As Amazon's most important profit pillar, cloud computing revenue posted the largest year-over-year increase since 2021.
Enterprise clients shifted from earlier IT budget cuts to accelerating workload migration to the cloud and building AI large model applications, driving explosive demand for cloud computing power and storage.
Largest single-day gain in 14 years
After the earnings release, Amazon's stock surged over 15% in a single day, marking the largest single-day gain in 14 years, with market value soaring nearly $400 billion in one day.
Third point, the $50 billion foresight: AI big bet pays off, leading in computing power and models, showcasing Amazon's strategic vision and resource integration in the generative AI battle:
Investment gains and earnings highlights
Earnings data show Amazon's net profit soared to $62.6 billion this quarter, including $53.4 billion in non-operating pre-tax gains from strategic investments in AI frontier giants. Previously, Amazon announced massive additional and cumulative investments tied to computing power, which have translated into very impressive investment returns in the financial statements.
Positive flywheel of computing power and cloud ecosystem
Unlike companies profiting solely from single AI applications, Amazon has achieved a full-chain closed loop of infrastructure + self-developed chips + model platform:
Self-developed chips reduce costs and improve efficiency: Amazon's Trainium and Inferentia AI chips provide highly cost-effective alternatives for enterprise training and inference.
Platform empowerment: Amazon integrates top large models into the Bedrock platform, enabling enterprise developers to invoke large models while directly driving AWS's computing, storage, and data transfer usage,
realizing a self-reinforcing flywheel of “AI investment → computing power consumption → cloud business growth.”
Fourth point, valuation and outlook: forward P/E still low
Although market value has crossed $3 trillion, from valuation metrics, Amazon's cost-effectiveness remains outstanding:
Valuation at historical low: based on expected earnings over the next 12 months, Amazon's forward P/E is only about 25 times, approximately 44% discount to the past decade's average level, still offering a very high margin of safety.
Leading the seven giants: amid a flat overall rise in the seven major U.S. tech stocks this year, Amazon stands out as the brightest leader stock due to earnings certainty.
Wall Street target price raised: Bloomberg data shows Wall Street analysts remain highly optimistic about Amazon, with an average target price indicating about 14% upside from the current stock price.
From e-commerce giant to cloud computing overlord, and now to enabler in the generative AI era, Amazon's $3 trillion market value proves its strategic vision.
It is not only the realization of investment returns but also a victory of the cloud computing and AI commercialization closed loop. As enterprise-level AI applications enter deep implementation, Amazon has secured an excellent leading position.Recently, a dark horse emerged in the TradFi sector: $XPLTR, which corresponds to the US stock market Palantir. It immediately launched a huge bullish candlestick, reaching a single-day high of $145, up more than 15 points in a single day. The bullish funds were practically burning red. Why did it suddenly spike? The core is that the financial report delivered an extraordinary report card. This AI big data company is simultaneously working on projects for the military while aggressively expanding its corporate clients. Q2 revenue nearly doubled year-on-year, with data far surpassing market estimates and raising this year's performance target. The boss even declared that high growth could continue for another year and a half, which immediately ignited market sentiment. Looking at the market signals, it's quite interesting: MACD bulls are showing strong momentum, with large amounts of funds flowing in. But KDJ has already reached a high point, and the short-term rally has been too aggressive. The bulls have mostly released their strength and could pull back for a break at any time. A key point here: xPLTR is not a native cryptocurrency; it is merely a token mapped to US stocks. Its price follows the US stock market and will incur a discount premium, which is different from trading regular coins. All the positive news has been released all at once, and this wave is driven by earnings reports. Rushing in now to chase the high price is very cost-effective. Once the trend in the US AI sector shifts or subsequent orders fall short of expectations, many profit-taking positions will flee, easily leading to a wave of cash-offs. Next, the focus is on two things: whether the company can continue to secure new orders, and whether the overall tech environment in the US stock market is good. Excitement aside, don't let a big bullish candlestick cloud your judgment.August 4 U.S. Stock Market Close Review: Indices Hit New Highs Again, Earnings Take Over to Drive the Market
$SNDK #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13%
Today, the U.S. stock market strengthened across the board. The Dow Jones surged 1.3%, setting a new closing record; the S&P 500 rose 1.48%; and the Nasdaq led the market with a 2.1% gain. Microsoft and Google both approached 5% gains, Meta soared 6%, and Amazon surged 4.6%, pushing its market cap past the $3 trillion mark. This rally is not purely driven by capital speculation. With geopolitical sentiment improving, corporate earnings beating expectations, and a long-term semiconductor boom all converging, the market has officially shifted from liquidity-driven to earnings-driven momentum.
1. Key Catalysts of Today’s Market
1.1 Easing U.S.-Iran Negotiations, Marginal Relief in Inflation Pressure
The biggest market positive came from rising expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that U.S.-Iran talks are progressing rapidly, with the Strait possibly reopening as soon as tomorrow. This news caused Brent crude oil to plunge nearly 6%, easing inflation concerns and opening upside for risk assets.
However, contradictions remain: Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied comprehensive negotiations, saying talks are only about transit routes; U.S. officials also said no formal negotiations are planned, only limited meetings. Conflicting signals mean geopolitical risks are not fully resolved. If talks stall, oil prices could rebound and again pressure stock market performance.
1.2 Earnings Season Delivers Strong Profits, Becoming the Core Support for the Rally
The most solid foundation for this rally is realized corporate earnings. Palantir delivered a better-than-expected Q2 report with $1.93 billion revenue, surpassing market expectations, and significantly raised its full-year revenue guidance. Its stock surged 14% after hours. Amazon’s AWS business is undergoing a demand shift from AI model training to commercial inference deployment, with computing power orders expanding and capital expenditures increasing accordingly.
Castle Securities noted that after retail speculative enthusiasm cooled, institutional funds stepped in to support the market. Many companies have consecutively beaten previously high market expectations. With earnings blackout periods ending, a wave of share buybacks is expected to accelerate, further stabilizing stock prices. The market is moving away from pure liquidity speculation; earnings-driven momentum has stronger sustainability.
1.3 Storage Semiconductor’s Ultra-Long Boom Cycle Materializes, Strengthening Tech Sector Confidence
The AI-driven super cycle for memory chips has been extended again, pushing the expected cycle end from 2028 to 2029-2030. By 2027, DRAM and HBM capacity will be fully sold out, and NAND flash capacity is expected to be fully booked by the end of this month. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron plan capital expenditures totaling $146 billion next year, 3.4 times the 2024 investment.
NVIDIA launched the Vera storage accelerator, boosting data verification and compression performance by over 3 times, addressing AI storage computing bottlenecks. With long-term supply-demand mismatches, the semiconductor sector’s long-term investment logic remains solid, also lifting optical communications and AI hardware sectors.
2. Market Structure and Sector Rotation Analysis
Index Technical Pattern: Bullish Trend Continues
All three major indices simultaneously broke previous highs and remain firmly within upward channels, with no signs of bearish divergence. The Nasdaq’s gains significantly outpaced broad indices, with capital concentrated in tech growth: Google up over 5%, Microsoft and Amazon up over 4%, Tesla and NVIDIA also rising. AI leaders are the core engines driving the market higher.
Clear Sector Divergence, Capital Concentrated in Growth Tracks
✅ Leading sectors:
1. Optical communications exploded: Applied Optoelectronics surged 16.88%, Coherent and Lumentum nearly 10%;
2. Broad semiconductor gains: Marvell, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Applied Materials all closed higher;
3. Structural rally in storage: SanDisk surged 6.09% leading, Micron rose slightly.
❌ Weak sectors:
Energy sector underperformed due to oil price plunge and negative policy impact. Trump publicly criticized oil giants for excessive profits, demanding returns. Chevron fell 2%, ExxonMobil down 0.6%. Capital clearly flowed out of defensive energy into high-growth tech.
Market Style Shift Completed
Leveraged ETF assets shrank 28% to $154 billion, retail speculative funds continue exiting, financing costs declined, and institutional funds now dominate market direction. The prior retail-driven emotional rally has ended; rational fundamental investing is mainstream, supported by corporate buybacks, greatly enhancing market stability.
3. Three Major Risks to Watch
3.1 Geopolitical Uncertainty
U.S. and Iran statements are contradictory, with negotiation progress easily delayed or stalled. If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen as scheduled, oil price rebounds could reignite inflation fears, directly pressuring U.S. stock valuations.
3.2 Massive Capital Expenditures Pose Capacity Risks
Storage manufacturers are massively expanding capacity, with three leaders investing hundreds of billions next year. After the 3-5 year plant construction cycle, if downstream AI demand falls short of expectations, overcapacity could trigger an industry cycle downturn, hurting corporate profits and stock prices.
3.3 Rising Expectations for AI Regulatory Rules
Safety controversies around autonomous AI models are intensifying. Hugging Face’s CEO called for dedicated regulatory frameworks. Coupled with prior OpenAI autonomous network attack incidents, upcoming targeted policies may constrain tech R&D pace, suppressing sector sentiment short term.
Summary
In the short term, the U.S. stock market’s bullish trend is clear, supported by earnings realization and easing geopolitical tensions. Technology, semiconductors, and optical communications remain the main allocation themes. However, geopolitical uncertainties and potential future overcapacity are risks that cannot be ignored. Volatility is expected to increase during the rally, so avoid reckless chasing of highs. Structural positioning based on fundamental strength is a safer approach.Market liquidity appears to be declining.
The G10 excess liquidity leading indicator has turned negative for the first time since 2024.
This indicator compares the growth rate of money supply with the pace of economic growth in G10 economies.
Excess liquidity that supports asset prices occurs when money supply growth outpaces economic growth.
Historically, this indicator usually leads the semiconductor index ($SOX) by about 6 months.
If this historical relationship holds, semiconductor stocks may perform weakly in the coming months.
Keep monitoring liquidity.
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
Elon Musk made a disruptive prediction: by the end of 2026 at the earliest, global AI chip production capacity may be in surplus, but there will be the dilemma of needing power to operate, with China possibly being one of the few exceptions.
Many focus on lithography machines and GPUs, yet overlook the real hidden bottleneck of AI computing power — electricity.
Chip factories can rapidly expand production, but power plants, grids, and energy storage cannot be quickly built just by throwing money at them; their construction cycles last several years. Many overseas companies have obtained chips but cannot secure power supply quotas, leaving hardware idle in warehouses.
In contrast, domestically, ultra-high voltage, new energy installations, and nuclear power continue to expand. The strong energy dispatch infrastructure is our unique moat. The competition in computing power is shifting from chip battles to a contest of physical infrastructure execution.
But objectively speaking: electricity is only a necessary condition, not a sufficient one.
Differences in chip performance, software ecosystems, and large model algorithms still objectively exist. Having power does not mean AI will directly lead, but without power, no matter how many chips there are, they are just piles of silicon.
The ultimate battlefield for AI is not only in laboratories but also in power plants and transmission lines. 8.4 Midday Analysis
5-minute MACD cycle: DIFF:1.96, DEA:1.08, MACD:1.77, both lines turning upward from a low position, green bars narrowing and turning red continuously, downward momentum dissipating, short-term rebound starting.
Operation Suggestions
Short: Layout short positions in the 4070-4080 rebound range
First target 4060, second target 4050
Long: Light long positions can be played on a stable pullback in the 4050-4055 range
First target 4065, if broken through then look at 4085
Risk Warning: The above is only a technical market review for reference and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Precious metals have high volatility risk. $XAU #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 SOL currently shows a clear bullish dominance, but this is not yet the direction of capital flow.
To determine if this round of SOL is heating up, we can first answer with speed; whether the market is bullish or not depends on another set of numbers.
OKX Onchain OS recorded 28 mentions of SOL in one hour at 10:00 on August 4th (China time), with 28 mentions on X and 0 in the news; the total mentions in 24 hours were 466.
The latest hour is equivalent to 1.44 times the long-window hourly average, which is about 44% higher than the 24-hour hourly average, classified as "significantly accelerating." This speed describes new discussions and does not necessarily correlate with price movements.
The sentiment is 46% bullish, 4% bearish, and about 50% neutral, currently categorized as "clearly bullish dominant." In 24 hours, bullish sentiment was 49%, bearish 9%; if there is a discrepancy between the two windows, it should be understood as a change in discussion structure rather than a direct price target.
I will plot these two lines separately. A bullish sentiment with slowing mention speed means the current discussion is positive but new attention is not accelerating; if mention speed rises and bearish sentiment dominates, it may indicate risk or fault news attracting attention. Even if heat and sentiment align, it cannot be directly equated to real buying pressure.
Source is another limitation. Currently, SOL is "almost entirely driven by X." Social channels react fastest, and the same topic may be repeatedly reposted; the more concentrated the source, the more the next window needs to confirm. An increase in news mentions does not automatically mean the event is true; the original announcement remains the final verification standard.
Within 24 hours, SOL mentions on X and in news were 433 and 33 respectively; in one hour, 28 and 0. If the short window is more concentrated on X than the long window, sensitivity to reposts and single narratives should be heightened; if the news proportion increases, check if it is just restating the same material.
What really needs monitoring are SOL's on-chain transaction success rate, fees, active addresses, and major application usage, combined with spot trading, perpetual contract funding rates, and open interest. These data respectively answer usage demand and leverage participation; popular rankings cannot replace them.
Time differences also need attention. The 466 mentions in 24 hours span different market sessions; dividing by 24 is just for comparison convenience and does not imply equal discussion volume each hour. Single deviations from the mean should be treated as observation points, not trend completions.
How to judge if the previous was just noise? If the next round of mentions increases but sentiment quickly returns to neutral, the directional sense is likely caused by a small sample. If mention speed continues to rise and sources expand beyond a single community, attention can be considered gradually stabilizing. Ultimately, continuous data changes judgment, not a louder slogan.
For now, remember three things: SOL discussion is clearly accelerating, short-window sentiment is clearly bullish dominant, and it is almost entirely driven by X. If speed continues and sources diversify, and trading and on-chain data also echo this, then push this observation one step further; until then, keep it on the watchlist and do not rush to act. Palantir刚刚交出了一份彻底改变市场认知的财报。 第二季度营收同比增长93%至19.4亿美元，净利润达10.6亿美元，并大幅上调全年业绩指引。受此推动，股价盘后一度涨超12%。 数字拆解： Q2营收：19.4亿美元（同比+93%） 净利润：10.6亿美元 全年指引：从77亿上调至至少81.5亿美元 美国商业业务：预计全年34亿美元，同比增长至少134% 市场在重新理解“AI主权” 当市场还在争论AI模型公司谁能胜出时，Palantir提出了另一个叙事——“AI主权”——企业需要控制自己的数据、AI系统和决策流程，而不是把核心交给外部模型公司。 CEO亚历克斯·卡普的表述更直接：企业和政府正在寻求对自身数据、AI系统和决策流程的控制权。这句话恰好击中了当前企业采用AI时最大的痛点——数据安全、合规和业务控制权。 Palantir认为，未来企业需要的不只是基础模型，而是能够管理数据、嵌入业务流程并保护竞争优势的AI平台。它把AI定义为一项“主权资产”，而不是一项采购服务。 一个需要关注的结构变化： 国际客户收入占比从26%降至19%，欧洲市场正在降低对美国科技公司的依赖。这既是PalLATEST UPDATE: BITCOIN ETF CASH FLOW ON 08/03 HAS COMPLETED
Importance level: High
Update time: noon 08/04/2026, Vietnam time
Final data shows US spot Bitcoin ETFs net bought $170.1 million, much higher than the previous preliminary estimate of about $52–59 million. BlackRock IBIT contributed +$111.4 million, Fidelity FBTC +$33.4 million; no large fund was net withdrawn during the session.
Implications for BTC
This is a clearer positive signal, showing institutions returning to buy after the 07/31 session saw a net withdrawal of $265.4 million. However, one net buying session is not enough to confirm a sustainable accumulation trend; it is necessary to see if the cash flow continues to be positive in the next few sessions.
Major remaining risk today
🔴 June JOLTS job openings announced at 9:00 PM 08/04/2026, Vietnam time. The latest figure was 7.594 million job openings in May.
* Much higher: DXY/yields may rise, putting pressure on BTC.
* Moderately lower: supports expectations of a softer Fed, positive for BTC.
* Too deep a drop: may trigger recession concerns and strong two-way volatility.
Expecting a big rebound, everyone follow closely for continuous updates. This is just a personal opinion, not investment advice 😀👌Today, the Japanese stock market gritted its teeth and withstood the violent intervention by the yen. The Nikkei only fell a little, but on the surface it appeared quite resilient. But if you look closely, Kioxia's performance guidance exploded, and flash memory giants began warning of tough times ahead. Isn't this telling us: if BOJ makes the next cut, no one will escape? To be honest, when I saw this news, the first thing that came to mind wasn't Japanese stocks, but $BTC. When the yen goes into chaos, global carry trades are forced to unwind, liquidity tightens, and risk assets all shake off. Remember last August's yen flash crash? $BTC two days, it dropped by 8 points, and the scene was extremely bad. Nikkei managed to hold out today, but Kioxia's thunderbolt was a bit tricky. The collapse in flash demand indicates that downstream sectors like consumer electronics and data centers are all contracting, and the real economy is cooling faster than expected. If the BOJ raises rates again at the end of August and the yen surges again, arbitrage funds will flee once again. For the crypto world, this is not good news. $BTC barely managed to hold around 68,000, $ETH struggled around 2,400, and the market was already waiting for liquidity to recover. Now you're telling me macroeconomics is about to take a squeeze again? I don't think now is the time to be radical. Stay steady for now, don't chase highers, keep some ammunition in hand. If the yen really stirs up trouble at the end of August, $BTC will most likely be dragged into the mess, and that will be the best time to grab some chips. Kioxia has already issued an open warning, yet you still rush in with your eyes closed. That's not bravery, it's stubbornness. Sisters, stay calm—this macro storm hasn't passed yet, don't get screwedFundamental Research Report $EGLD / MultiversX (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
Conclusion first: MultiversX ($EGLD) overall score 58/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
MultiversX (token $EGLD), public chain/L1 sector. Focuses on AdaptiveState sharding. Competitors include ETH, SOL. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas fees spike, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn and buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: MultiversX $3.00B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. FDV: MultiversX $4.20B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Annual revenue: MultiversX $2.00M, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: MultiversX undisclosed, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Summary: fundamentals solid (score 58/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Tracking metrics: protocol fees weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. If core financial indicators deviate more than 30%, conclusions need reassessment.
This concludes this research report. If you find it useful, please follow.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitReviewing the entire period from July to now. The trigger for the early July decline was Bloomberg's "Meta Compute" report, which the market interpreted as a signal that hyperscale cloud providers had overbuilt and were starting to offload computing power. Lam Research fell 10% in one day, SanDisk dropped 14%, KLA declined 12%, and the entire semicap chain was trampled following the capex ROI falsification logic.
This earnings season, Amazon and Microsoft delivered results and clearly stated in their calls that revenue growth has begun to outpace incremental capex growth, with ROIC improving rather than deteriorating. This fundamentally overturns the narrative premise behind the July decline.
The big rally we saw last night (five of the Mag 7 rose more than 3%) does not look like a technical rebound after overselling; the SPX hit a historical high accompanied by abnormal institutional trading volume, which is not characteristic of short-covering.
The capital allocation is extremely precise and worth investigating. Software ($MSFT, $ORCL, $PLTR) surged on 8/3, while SanDisk did not hit new highs, and Micron barely returned to the 800 put option wall.
From my own research and model, a reasonable explanation is: $MU's SCA contract protects the downside but also caps the upside (contract price ceiling set near market price around 2026 Q2). Also, I believe the duration de-rating logic from July has not been fully lifted. Looking at $MRVL, the market's de-rated entry price for this stock is likely around $140-160; institutions are buying software again but remain disciplined with semiconductors (buying only on dips).
The preference of capital in this rebound is: high-visibility cash flow (software SaaS) > direct beneficiaries of AI infrastructure (mega-cap tech) > secondary beneficiary chains (semicap, memory).
$LRCX was the first to be abandoned during the capex oversupply sell-off in July, but if Amazon and Microsoft prove that revenue > incremental capex, then the next round of data center expansion equipment orders will not shrink but continue to rise into 2027. However, $LRCX's current price has not hit new highs, so the market has not passed the earnings tailwind down to the equipment layer. My bold personal prediction is that this is a mispricing yet to be corrected. If $AMD and $SNDK earnings this week support the logic I mentioned, $LRCX and the entire semicap chain will catch up and may even outperform large-cap software. Conversely, if earnings are weak, the duration de-rating logic will continue. Semiconductors may retest lows.
Finally, Friday's nonfarm payrolls need not be a strong number but a mild miss. A too-large beat would only put the Fed in a dilemma. $BTC $ETH $DOGE Ethereum has fallen from its all-time high of $4,953 in August 2025 to the current $1,863, a decline of 62.3% and a 37.2% drop this year. But on-chain data reveals a counterintuitive fact: the ETH exchange supply ratio has dropped to 0.127, a historic low. This means the liquidity supply on exchanges is plummeting, and holders are withdrawing ETH from the exchange. Meanwhile, ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $4 billion in August, while BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $751 million during the same period—marking the first time since ETH ETFs launched that capital flows have significantly surpassed BTC. There is also an interesting signal: a BTC whale who has been dormant for seven years suddenly became active, selling over 25,000 BTC (about $2.59 billion) and then buying 473,000 ETH (about $2.2 billion), while establishing $577 million worth of ETH perpetual long positions. Record low exchange supply + continued institutional capital inflows + whales shifting from BTC to ETH—these signals point to a possibility: ETH is gathering momentum for the next rally. However, short-term price trends remain weak, and the bullish and bearish tug-of-war has reached its most critical moment. #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed: #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Close, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, Gains 13% in After-Hours Echoing the information and views from Jason's post, quick marks:
1. The pre-market CRCL drop of -6% was mainly due to a rating by some annoying analyst at Morgan Stanley;
2. The Clarity Act basically has no chance this week in early August, don't hold your breath. But it doesn't affect the SEC and CFTC continuing their regulation. "The sun will rise even if the rooster doesn't crow."
For more in-depth analysis, you can watch the interview video released by a16z yesterday:
3. Circle's interest-sharing agreement with Coinbase in August will remain unchanged. Don't hold your breath.
4. Curious to see if CRCL can hold around the 58.6 level tonight. (Not holding doesn't mean much. It just means some are panicking.) Just marking this level.
5. Treat BTC and CRCL as cyclical assets; this perspective and mindset will be better.
6. Morgan Stanley seems to want to get in. Just like how they loudly called for a rate hike before the recent FOMC meeting with Citadel, then took over Leopold's leveraged position on the side.【Trading Diary】No trades today. There will be trades tomorrow.
The market continues to experience inertia-driven gains influenced by expectations of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Many people see the rise and their first reaction is:
"Is this a reversal?" But my trading plan remains unchanged.
An increase does not mean the risk has disappeared.
The issues I have been focusing on:
Long-term interest rate pressure.
Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Semiconductors and overall valuations.
These issues have not truly been resolved yet.
So at this point, I believe there may still be room for the market to rise, but it has not reached a level that would make me significantly increase short positions again.
My plan:
If the market continues upward to a more attractive level, I will consider increasing short positions, roughly around the #NQ 29500 level.
For now, I am observing.
The hardest part of trading is not determining direction.
It is waiting for the price that belongs to you.
---
The coming week will be quite critical.
Data.
Earnings reports.
Policy expectations.
All could change the short-term market rhythm.
The biggest risk is:
The market does not give a clear signal to decline, then some data or earnings report causes a rapid adjustment before the market opens.
If that happens, I might miss the best point to add to my position.
But that’s trading.
Missing one opportunity is better than forcing a trade at the wrong position.
---
My current broad view:
Continue to be bearish on semiconductors.
Continue to watch for opportunities in software stocks. $MSFT has already brought me good returns.
---
Additionally, SpaceX showed a clear rally near the close today.
My small account currently has a heavy position in SpaceX. I will take advantage of the late session and possible rise tomorrow to reduce or even clear the position before earnings. Betting heavily on earnings is unwise.
Earnings themselves carry uncertainty.
The market is not truly concerned about losses.
For SpaceX, losses and AI investments are already expected.
What really matters is:
The growth rate of Starlink.
When AI-related investments can start to generate returns.
This depends on the information management releases during the conference call.
If the market recognizes future growth, even if earnings show losses, the stock price may still rise.
But if it rises, I would be more inclined to treat the rebound as a trading opportunity.
My judgment:
SpaceX will not fall all the way to its fair value. The fair value is around $70.
But it will not rise forever just because it is listed.
A more likely path:
Rebound → then continue to drift downward.
Account and positions👇🏿
#USStocks #SpaceX #SPCX #Nasdaq #Semiconductors #SoftwareStocks #Investment
$SPCX $QQQ $NQ $SOXX $SMH $MSFTLet's talk about Palantir's earnings report this time. It rose 12 points after hours last night, which says a lot. The market now doesn't care about what you did in the past three months; it only cares about what you say about the future.
Good numbers are just the entry ticket; guidance is the anchor for pricing.
Tonight is the main course.
AMD and SpaceX are reporting simultaneously, and Circle will close tomorrow.
The three companies are in completely different sectors, but they share one thing: expectations have already been pushed very high.
For AMD tonight, the core focus is on two things: gross margin and AI chip guidance. Revenue is expected to be 11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year, and the market has already set the bar very high. If gross margin declines, it means they are still trading price for volume, and no matter how good the guidance looks, it will be discounted. If the gross margin holds up, that’s the real confidence.
SpaceX’s first earnings report since going public. Previously, we could only rely on Elon Musk’s Twitter to speculate whether Starlink is profitable. Tonight, we finally get to see the real numbers. But on August 6, over 900 million shares will be unlocked, so if the earnings report isn’t strong enough, selling pressure might increase.
Circle is the finale; its earnings report is actually a liquidity health check for the crypto market. USDC reserves have shrunk to 72 billion, volume is declining, but interest rates are still holding high. How much this hedge can cover will determine the quality of this earnings report.
Three earnings reports, three uncertainties. No rush to draw conclusions; let’s wait for the data to land.
$SPCX $AMD $CRCL
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 Crypto Daily · Tuesday, August 4, 2026
1. One-sentence summary for today
The bulls are holding on hard; BTC has slightly rebounded but long positions are deeply underwater, this momentum is not yet stable.
2. Market thermometer
Neutral to bearish
BTC long positions net loss nearly $40 million, bulls are holding but not winning.[1]
3. Key market highlights today
BTC: around $62,600 | 24h slight rebound about +1~2% | long positions underwater nearly $39 million, there is a rebound but insufficient confidence, I don't think this is a true stabilization
ETH: around $1,872 | 24h about -0.5% | long positions loss over $53 million, shorts are actually profiting, ETH looks worse than BTC this round
Strongest sector today: small-cap speculative coins | representative coin VIC | 24h increase +82.6%, OI/market cap ratio as high as 82%, pure manipulation, retail investors beware
Weakest sector today: Korean tech stock tokens | representative coin SK Hynix (SKHX) | 24h about -4.5%, OI is increasing, shorts are actively shorting
4. Most important news today
[US stocks strongly rebound, BTC's follow-up is weak]
Gate Research's report today points out that US stocks rebounded strongly, but BTC only "slightly rebounded," the correlation effect is weakening.
[Impact] In the short term, the crypto market can't keep pace with US stocks, indicating capital is selectively withdrawing from the riskiest layers of risk assets.
[My judgment] Market reaction is insufficient. BTC only slightly follows the big rise in US stocks; I see this divergence as a bearish signal, not an "independent rally," it means no buyers.
[AVAX OI and price rise synchronously +5.5%]
Early today AVAX showed OI +5.3%, price +4.8% synchronous anomaly, 24h increase +5.5%, market cap about $2.9 billion.
[Impact] Capital is actively building long positions pushing price, short-term momentum exists.
[My judgment] AVAX is interesting this round; OI and price moving in the same direction indicates real buying pressure, not shorts being forced to cover. But given the overall weak market sentiment, I won't chase, will wait for a pullback.
[ETH long-short structure severely imbalanced, shorts dominate]
ETH long positions total loss over $53 million, short positions total profit only $660,000, net loss $52.7 million, long-short ratio 1.48:1 but longs are losing heavily.
[Impact] ETH longs are deeply trapped; if BTC weakens again, ETH may experience a stampede-like drop.
[My judgment] This structure is very dangerous. Many longs losing money, few shorts profiting, the market is voting with its feet. I'm cautious on ETH short-term; I dare not add positions here.
5. Signals worth attention today
Signal ①: BTC-US stock rebound divergence
BTC only slightly follows the strong US stock rebound, correlation is decreasing.
Why it matters: Historically, such divergence means either BTC will catch up soon or is weakening ahead — given the current long position structure, I lean toward the latter.
Tracking period: short-term (48-72 hours)
Signal ②: ETH longs deeply underwater, net loss over $52 million
Many longs but heavy losses, few shorts but profits, structurally bearish.
Why it matters: If BTC breaks down, ETH longs' stop-loss orders will concentrate, causing a sharper drop than BTC.
Tracking period: short-term
Signal ③: Small-cap coin VIC surges +82% in one day, OI/market cap ratio reaches 82%
OI/market cap ratio abnormally high, price rapidly pushed up.
Why it matters: This signal usually indicates a final pump by manipulators before unloading; retail chasing likely to be left holding the bag. Those who know, know.
Tracking period: short-term
6. Key events preview for tomorrow
[This week] Fed officials' speaking window → Expected impact: neutral to bearish, any hawkish tone will suppress BTC rebound momentum
[Ongoing] ETH longs stop-loss pressure → Expected impact: bearish, if long position underwater structure doesn't improve, chain stop-losses may trigger anytime
[Already happened today] AVAX OI anomaly follow-up trend → Expected impact: bullish, short-term momentum to chase gains, but depends on holding the gains
No major macro data expected tomorrow, updates as they come.
7. Today's view
Honestly, today's market makes me uncomfortable. US stocks rose, BTC barely moved, ETH longs are trapped over $50 million and still holding — this is not strength, this is no stop-loss. You never profit beyond your cognition; the biggest misconception now is thinking "a drop is an opportunity." No, a drop can continue dropping. I didn't add positions today, will wait and see. In the crypto market, understanding Tokenomics is often more important than chasing a cheap coin 🧠 A low price does not equal undervaluation; the core factor determining a project's long-term performance is its supply structure, especially the circulating ratio and the unlocking schedule of locked tokens 📊
A large-scale unlocking round, even if the project's fundamentals and technology remain solid, can instantly trigger extreme sell pressure. This is why prices often deviate from true value, because retail investors only look at the candlestick charts and ignore the most critical supply-side dynamics ⚠️ Projects with extremely high FDV, very low circulation, and dense unlocking schedules find it very difficult to maintain a healthy trend amid continuous "liquidity release."
🔓 Projects with market attention on unlocking progress include: $ARB $OP $STRK $ZK $BLAST $MANTA $ALT $DYM $TIA $SUI $APT $SEI $PYTH $JUP $W $EIGEN $REZ $ETHFI
Meanwhile, the sectors currently attracting the most capital are also worth noting:
🌐 DeFi and RWA: $ONDO $MKR $AAVE $UNI $PENDLE $ENA $SNX $CRV $COMP $LDO $RPL
🤖 AI and DePIN: $TAO $FET $NEAR $RNDR $AKT $AIOZ $GRT $THETA $FIL $AR
🐸 Meme sector: $PEPE $WIF $BONK $FLOKI $POPCAT $BOME $DOGE $SHIB $MOG $BRETT
Before you decide to buy any token, please force yourself to answer these key questions:
✅ What percentage of the total supply is currently circulating?
✅ What is the current FDV level of the project?
✅ When is the next large unlocking round scheduled?
✅ The history of Bitcoin $BTC is a repetitive script. After every new high, there is a bloodbath. But interestingly, each bloodbath is shallow in depth than the last. Looking back at the past four major cycles, the retracement from the highest to the lowest point shows a visible pattern: in 2013, it fell from 1150 to 152, an 87% retracement. In 2017, it fell from 19,891 to 3,122, an 84% drawdown. In 2021, it fell from 69,000 to 15,476, a 77% retracement. Each of the three retracements was shallower than the last: 87 to 84 to 77, each shrinking by about 7 percentage points. This is not a coincidence; as Bitcoin matures, every bear market bottom is pushed higher, and every panic is compressed. Now it's the fifth round. In October 2025, BTC hit a 126173 all-time high. Since then, it has fallen all the way to 57,750 by the end of June this year. From 126173 to 57,750, that's a 54% drawdown. If we continue to shrink according to historical patterns, this round of drawdowns should be between 65% and 70%. That means from 126,000, the bottom should be between 37,800 and 44,100. But there is a key difference here. The first three drawdowns occurred before Bitcoin had ETFs, no large-scale institutional entries, and was not priced as a macro asset. In January 2024, the US spot ETF was approved, and in 2025, net buying continued to continue. Although ETFs saw several weeks of outflows in 2026, recent capital has also...Firefly Trading | Macro Thoughts: How Market Expectations Shift from "Rate Cuts" to "Rate Hike Concerns"
At the beginning of the year, the market unanimously bet on the Federal Reserve starting a rate cut cycle, expecting 2-3 easing moves within the year; within just a few months, expectations completely reversed, the rate cut narrative faded, and the market began repricing the possibility of rate hikes. This sharp turn in expectations is not due to a sudden change in the central bank’s stance but is the result of multiple realities overturning the old logic layer by layer:
1. Inflation stickiness exceeds expectations
Core inflation's decline has slowed continuously, still far from the 2% target. Repeated Middle East geopolitical conflicts disturb crude oil prices, and energy volatility could push prices up again at any time, limiting the Federal Reserve’s easing space.
2. U.S. economy and employment show strong resilience
Consumption and non-farm payroll data remain robust, with no clear signs of recession. Historically, during hot employment phases, the Fed rarely cuts rates rashly to stimulate the economy.
3. Major shift in Federal Reserve policy framework
The new management weakens forward guidance, no longer providing the market with a fixed interest rate path; policy returns to being "fully data-dependent." The stance is clear: rates are adjustable in both directions, rate cuts are no longer the default option, and inflation rebounds bring the possibility of further rate hikes.
4. U.S. Treasury supply pressure raises long-term risk premiums
The continuously expanding fiscal deficit and massive issuance of long-term government bonds, combined with ongoing overseas selling, permanently push up the long-end yield center, and the duration of high rates far exceeds everyone’s expectations at the start of the year.
Market insights:
The era of cheap liquidity is over; **Higher-for-Longer** becomes the new main theme.
High-valuation growth and long-duration assets like crypto continue to face pressure; capital prefers cash-flow-stable assets.
Key focus going forward: month-on-month inflation data, crude oil volatility, and non-farm employment.
Trading approach: Do not cling to the old belief of "rate cuts sooner or later," dynamically adjust according to data and expectations, strictly control position sizes, and reject unilateral subjective forecasts. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 Fundamental Research Report $ROSE / Oasis Network (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
Straight to the point: Oasis Network ($ROSE) overall score 59/100, rating narrative over execution. Breaking down the three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Project overview: Oasis Network (token $ROSE), public chain/L1 sector. Focused on privacy computing public chain. Competitors include ETH, SOL. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas fees spike, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User metrics: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing seen on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales seen in whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, tech integration seen via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): circulating market cap Oasis Network $3.00B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. FDV Oasis Network $4.20B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Annual revenue Oasis Network $2.00M, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users Oasis Network undisclosed, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Summary: fundamentals solid (score 59/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Next to watch: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Judgments based on public data, not investment advice. Conclusions must be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
Fundamentals analyzed, market direction is another matter.
#FundamentalResearch #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitGood news is flying everywhere, yet BTC lies flat at 62,528 playing dead — the strangeness of this is even chillier than a needle's plunge.
Looking back at the past 24h news flow: 10x Research says August might see the bear bottom, American Bitcoin reports record production, Ripple is throwing money into tokenization, HashKey secured JPMorgan custody license. A basket full of good news.
And the result? BTC is still -0.93% in 24h, F&G stuck at 28 Fear, volume shrank by 31.3%. Fed with good news, but the price didn’t even make a splash.
What does this mean? It’s not that good news is lacking, but no one is buying. Every piece of good news triggers someone to run with the info, quietly absorbing the buy orders.
Fees are still at +0.0032%, OI at 111,400 BTC hasn’t dropped — positions exist on the market but no conviction, a typical "run on good news, lie flat without it" scenario.
Here’s something to take away — when judging the market, don’t count good news, count the "good news reaction": if good news pushes BTC above 63K, that’s real demand; if good news bombs but price stays still, it means selling pressure is too heavy, all the good news is just empty.
Right now, my ADA is floating at a loss of -1.37%, KAITO short floating loss -0.81%, both sides getting hit but no adding positions, just paying tuition to watch the show.
Don’t let news headlines lead you. In a bear market, the sweetest sugar is bad news disguised as good news — miners hit record production but still lost money in Q2, this kind of "growth" you figure it out.
This "good news fatigue" is the most wearing: the more you wait for a reversal, the more stubborn it gets; when it’s truly bottoming, often no good news can even be made up.
A reminder: F&G 28 is not the bottom, it’s a dull knife — bottoms usually come with good news exhausted + silence + OI collapse, now all three are the opposite.
Brothers, how many of these good news do you believe? If tomorrow another "XX institution enters" big news comes and BTC still can’t stand above 63K, will you keep waiting or pull out first? Let’s chat in the comments.
#BTC #ETH #GoodNewsFatigue #MarketSentiment #MarketAnalysis #BearMarket #OKXPlanet #NewsSurface #BottomSignal #FOMO The Senate recess on August 10 and the August 5 deadline for the CLARITY Act are approaching simultaneously, intensifying traders' pessimistic expectations about $XLITE's compliance prospects. The sudden drop in order book depth and the 33% passage probability pricing are triggering chip withdrawals.
The approaching August 5 deadline has led market makers to execute defensive order cancellations, significantly diluting the density of buy and sell orders on the order book. The impact of single large sell orders on $XLITE's intraday price is magnified, revealing a systemic liquidity contraction caused by declining compliance expectations.
The primary variable driving the market is the countdown to the political compliance cycle, followed by changes in macro risk appetite. The market has assigned an extremely low 33% probability of the bill passing, prompting risk-averse funds to accelerate their exit, further suppressing bullish accumulation willingness.
The bullish scenario trigger condition is that all parties reach a political compromise and formally submit a motion before the deadline. If the agenda is confirmed to advance, the 33% low passage probability pricing will be instantly reshaped, prompting defensive market makers to re-enter orders, and the rapid return of risk-averse funds could directly trigger a sharp short squeeze.
The bearish scenario is based on the absence of a motion by the August 5 deadline. If the bill is not scheduled on the agenda before the Senate recess on August 10, the compliance premium squeeze will force spot holders to accelerate their exit, risking a secondary liquidity collapse unless large funds disregard compliance risks and accumulate against the trend.
The premise for judging continued liquidity loss is that the congressional agenda proceeds as planned. If the Senate suddenly announces an extension of debate time, the transmission chain of risk-averse fund withdrawals will be interrupted, and the short logic will immediately fail.
Within the next 24 hours, focus on whether there will be registration information about a motion to end the bill in the public congressional schedule.
#韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成，波幅收窄 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩The significance of Palantir's earnings report goes beyond itself; it provides a validation point for the entire AI sector.
#Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13%
The AI narrative has undergone a deep revaluation in the past few months.
Microsoft and Amazon have proven that their AI investments are paying off, while Meta's cash flow issues caused an 8% plunge.
The market no longer pays for "we are investing in AI" but starts paying for "we are already making money from AI."
Palantir proves it belongs to the latter with 93% revenue growth. The full-year revenue guidance was raised by nearly $500 million, U.S. commercial revenue grew 149%, and the CEO said this can continue for 18 months—these factors combined are more convincing than any candlestick analysis.
For the crypto market, Palantir's earnings report has an indirect but profound impact. The AI narrative has been one of the most important macro sentiment anchors in the crypto market over the past few years. When Palantir proves the path to AI commercialization is viable, the valuation logic of the entire AI sector will be reexamined.AMD will release its earnings report after the market closes tonight.
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
The market expects revenue of $11.31 billion, a year-over-year increase of 47.17%, and earnings per share of $1.05, up 94.44% year-over-year.
FactSet's expectation is $11.3 billion.
Last quarter, AMD's revenue was $10.25 billion, up 37.8% year-over-year, beating expectations. This quarter, the market expects even higher — data center business is expected to grow 101% year-over-year to $6.5 billion, including $4 billion from server chips and $2.5 billion related to AI. Server CPU revenue is expected to increase by more than 70% year-over-year.
Analysts have significantly raised their full-year forecasts — revenue from $48.8 billion to $49.6 billion, and earnings per share from $7.22 to $7.41. AMD has already risen more than 126% this year. These expectations are already priced into the stock. If the earnings report only "meets expectations," the stock price may not rise. Options market signals indicate AMD's stock could fluctuate by 12% after the earnings release.
The gap between AMD and Nvidia is narrowing but not yet closed. The MI300 series has captured some market share in AI inference, but the training market remains Nvidia's domain. Tonight, watch three things — whether data center growth can exceed 100%, AI chip revenue guidance, and changes in gross margin. If all three are positive, AMD may continue to surge. If any one falls short of expectations, the 126% year-to-date gain could be a double-edged sword. SpaceX will release its earnings report after the market closes tomorrow.
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
This is the first earnings report since going public.
The market consensus expects revenue of $6.93 billion and an adjusted loss per share of $0.26.
Bloomberg's forecast is revenue of $6.87 billion, a significant increase from Q1's $4.7 billion.
Short sellers have already entered the market early. Data from S3 Partners shows that short positions on SPCX have surged to 219.3 million shares, accounting for 34% of the publicly traded shares, with a notional value of $24.6 billion. SPCX's current stock price is about 18% below the IPO price of $135 and has dropped more than 50% from the historical high of $225.
The earnings report is just the beginning. The real test comes in two days—on August 6, when 911.5 million restricted shares will be unlocked. Currently, only about 5% of shares are tradable; after unlocking, this will double to 12%. This is one of the largest single-stock unlocks in U.S. stock market history. Shorts are betting that insiders will dump shares and crash the price after the unlock, while longs are betting that earnings surprises will trigger a short squeeze.
The earnings report itself may not be decisive; the key is how the CEO answers questions about the unlock and insider selling. If he says "no selling," shorts may get squeezed. If he says "we will gradually reduce holdings," the price could break below 100. Circle's earnings report before the market opens on August 5 Beijing time.
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
Wall Street expects revenue of $714 million and earnings per share of $0.16.
USDC circulation dropped from 77 billion in Q1 to about 73 billion in Q2.
The decline in circulation directly impacts Circle's core income—reserves buying U.S. Treasuries to earn interest; the less USDC, the less profit.
But the Iran war pushed up short-term market interest rates, partially offsetting the impact of the USDC balance decline.
With higher interest rates, each dollar of reserves earns more. USDC decreased, but the profit margin per dollar increased, creating a tug of war.
Wall Street's views on Circle have already split. Morgan Stanley cut the target price to $38, a 64% drop. TD Cowen set a target price of $82, betting on Circle's platform transformation.
The CLARITY Act is progressing slower than expected, further increasing market uncertainty. Circle just obtained a national trust bank license, but USDC circulation is falling, the regulatory framework is dragging, and Wall Street ratings are conflicting. CRCL fell from 299 to over 60, a significant drop, but the market divergence indicates it hasn't bottomed out yet. Wash's recent move is more worth pondering.
He did something that almost no Federal Reserve chair has done—refused to fill out the personal interest rate forecast, explicitly abandoning the traditional forward guidance.
Previously, Powell would tell the market in advance what the next step would be, providing signposts and expectations. Wash's approach is—"follow the ball, not the referee." In plain language: don't expect the Fed to draw you a roadmap anymore; judge for yourselves going forward.
But 18 colleagues participated in this dot plot, and collectively moved toward rate hikes. According to Bloomberg data, the average forecasted rate for the year rose from 3.24% to 3.83%, with committee members generally expecting rate hikes before any cuts. Wash didn't fill out the dot plot, but his colleagues did, and the direction is toward rate hikes.
The market fears uncertainty the most. The Fed chair removes the signposts, so traders can only guess the direction themselves. The result of all this guessing is a surge in long-term yields. Nominally, the Fed is holding steady, but Wash's ambiguous statements have effectively pushed tightening expectations higher. The difference from a direct rate hike may be just in name.
Bitcoin dropped from 65,000 to 63,000 not because of fundamentals, but due to macro pressure. Every 1% rise in U.S. Treasury yields forces a revaluation of risk assets. Wash's playbook is completely different from Powell's, and the market needs time to adapt to this new uncertainty. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 The logic behind this BICO surge is actually quite clear — the cross-chain infrastructure narrative.
Biconomy's account abstraction and cross-chain messaging are among the most needed elements in the current Web3 industry.
The more chaotic the multi-chain ecosystem becomes, the more obvious Biconomy's value is.
On June 20th, BICO doubled in one day to 0.12 because it launched a new technology that allows AI agents to complete multiple steps on-chain in one go. The combination of AI and on-chain interaction is one of the hottest narratives in the current market.
But no matter how hot the narrative is, it can't withstand selling pressure. In May, the project team quietly unlocked and transferred 90 million BICO tokens to exchanges. Historically, every time the project team unlocks tokens and transfers them to exchanges, it's a signal of high-level selling. After peaking at 0.12, the price crashed all the way down to 0.02, a drop of over 83%.
Now it's around 0.018, with support at 0.016 below. The project's fundraising is not yet complete, so any rebound could be crushed at any time. The fundamentals of this coin are indeed progressing, but the token distribution structure means it's not the kind of asset you can just hold blindly without moving. $BICO As the Washington Senate recess period and motion deadline approach simultaneously, $XLITE, positioned at the intersection of US stocks and crypto, is undergoing a silent chip withdrawal.
The asset's bid-ask depth has sharply contracted in the short term, and the dilution of order density has caused intraday price volatility to multiply.
The market currently prices the bill's passage probability at a low 33%, with no signs of vote compromise before the August 5 deadline, prompting risk-averse capital to accelerate outflows.
The decline in compliance expectations has directly led to defensive order cancellations by market makers, and the sudden reduction in order book depth further intensifies spot holders' willingness to exit.
If parties reach a political compromise and submit a motion before the deadline, the rapid return of risk-averse funds will trigger a sharp price rebound; however, if the bill fails to be scheduled before the recess, this path will be invalidated.
If the motion remains absent by the August 5 deadline, liquidity will face further collapse and suppress prices, unless large funds accumulate counter-trend at low levels, disregarding compliance risks.
The above judgment about continued liquidity loss may be falsified if the Senate suddenly announces an extension of debate time.
In the next 24 hours, the most critical variable to watch is whether registration information about the bill's cloture motion appears on the public congressional schedule.
#Tether季度盈利15亿，黄金增至146吨 #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩BICO has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with a circulating supply of about 985 million tokens, accounting for 98.5% of the total supply.
Most of the tokens are already in circulation, unlike those new coins with only 20%-30% circulation rates that still have massive unlocks waiting to crash the market.
However, the unlocking and transfer of 90 million tokens to exchanges in May indicates that the project team still holds tokens. Although the remaining amount is not large, when and at what price this portion moves will directly determine the short-term price ceiling.
The project team pushing new technology, making headlines, price surges, and then slowly selling off — this script has been played many times in the crypto space. BICO’s technical direction is correct, and the combination of AI and on-chain interaction is indeed one of the hottest narratives. But no matter how good the narrative is, it can’t withstand the project team selling at 0.12.
The current price of 0.018 has dropped 85% from the high of 0.12 and more than 99.9% from the all-time high of $22. It is cheap, but cheap alone is not a reason to buy. $BICO $SSV (4H) – Support Retest Accumulation
Bias: LONG
Entry Zone: 2.170 – 2.246
Stop Loss: 2.110
TP1: 2.370
TP2: 2.500
TP3: 2.650
Why this setup:
Down 0.31% at 2.246. Consolidating near key structural support, giving buyers a clean level for risk invalidation and bounce play.
NFA – Educational purposes only.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise For the BICO token, short-term depends on sentiment and capital, while mid-to-long-term depends on product implementation.
In the short term, the negative fee rate short squeeze structure is still accumulating.
If the shorts continue to hold on poorly, there could be a rebound.
However, 0.018-0.019 is a recent resistance zone, where selling pressure appears. The support is at 0.016-0.017; if broken, it could drop to 0.014 or even lower.
In the mid-to-long term, Biconomy's technical direction is correct. Account abstraction and cross-chain message passing are essential infrastructure for large-scale Web3 adoption. The issue is that competition in this sector is fierce, and whether Biconomy can maintain its lead determines BICO's long-term value.
If you're interested in this token, my advice is to observe with a light position and avoid heavy bets on direction. You can place orders around 0.016-0.017 with a stop loss below 0.015. Do not chase above 0.018; wait until it stabilizes. The project team's tokens haven't fully been released yet, so rebounds can be crushed at any time. When you don't understand, don't act—that's better than anything for this asset.
$BICO