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Today's Bitcoin surge is not fundamentally about Bitcoin itself.
Don't rush to call a bull market yet; let me lay out the logic.
The trigger was the U.S. Treasury stepping in. The 30-year Treasury yield soared to a 2019 high, above 5.3%—who can withstand that? So the Treasury doubled its long-term bond buyback from $2 billion to $4 billion, directly suppressing yields. When rates drop, money flows out of bonds and back into risk assets—Bitcoin happens to be in that pool.
Then came the short squeeze. Too many people were shorting; after months of decline, everyone formed a mindset that any rebound was a shorting opportunity. In just 4 hours, $1.4 billion in shorts were liquidated, forcing shorts to buy back to cover, pushing prices higher—this is a short squeeze.
At the same time, the SEC released a regulatory draft opening a channel for crypto project financing, and the White House is preparing a crypto industry meeting with Coinbase and Ripple attending. These three events combined ignited sentiment.
But honestly, most of this rally comes from forced buying, not active allocation. Those liquidated bought and are done; they won't come back tomorrow. Strategy rose 13% today, Coinbase 11%, but both are still down over 35% year-to-date—a one-day rebound can't fill a year's gap.
The $69,000 level is critical. If it holds, the story continues; if not, today is just a rebound.
I've been in this market 12 years, and I only believe one thing: if you don't know why it rises, you won't know why it falls. You have to be on one side or the other.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡
$SNDK SanDisk's long-term story hasn't suddenly fallen apart: approximately $93.9 billion in long-term contracts covering 8 customers, with the longest term reaching 5 years, and about two-thirds of FY2028 capacity already covered by agreements.
However, Binance perpetual contracts still dropped more than 8% in 24 hours.
What really needs attention is that the number of open contracts simultaneously decreased by about 13%. This looks more like a concentrated retreat and deleveraging by bulls after a previous excessive rise, rather than any new negative news sufficient to overturn the fundamentals.
A technical rebound may occur around 1,528–1,500, but until it recovers 1,600–1,620, I won't consider the rebound a reversal; if 1,500 doesn't hold, the next stop might be 1,450. No matter how good the logic is, buying too high will still turn into a bad trade. The U.S. can suppress the 5.3% yield on U.S. Treasuries, but will the cost be a weaker dollar?
In the past two days, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield once surged to 5.34%, the highest level since 2007. Subsequently, the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would increase the liquidity repo size for 10- to 30-year long-term Treasuries from a maximum of $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion. After the announcement, the 30-year yield quickly fell back to around 5.18%.
The bond market has temporarily stabilized, but on the other hand, the dollar has started to weaken noticeably. Today, the dollar index hit a low of 98.558, a three-month low; meanwhile, the euro rose to $1.1710, reaching its highest level since mid-May.
So I think the question has gradually shifted from: Can the U.S. suppress long-term Treasury yields? to: What is the cost of suppressing them?
The Treasury's expanded repo can improve long-term Treasury liquidity, but it does not solve the fundamental problem—the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt remain large. In fact, JPMorgan has already warned that if fiscal issues do not improve, this operation could ultimately push up term premiums and long-term yields again.比特币单日大涨11%，一举突破7万美元关口，与此同时黄金同步走高4%——但真正牵动全球市场的，并不是风险资产的狂欢，而是美国国债市场深处传来的警报声🔔 美国30年期国债收益率一度逼近5.4%，创下2007年以来的最高水平。这个数字意味着什么？简单来说，当市场把钱借给美国政府时，要求的风险补偿正在快速上升。换句话说，全球投资者对美国偿债能力的信心，正在被重新定价📉 面对这样的压力，美国财政部终于坐不住了。8月19日，财政部宣布将单次国债回购上限从20亿美元提高至至少40亿美元，试图通过主动回购来稳定市场情绪。消息公布后，30年期收益率从约5.33%回落至5.20%，10年期收益率也从4.71%降至4.64%📊 但这样的跌幅，放在整个市场背景下，充其量只是打了个喷嚏，远谈不上危机解除。 问题的核心在于：财政部用来回购国债的钱，从哪里来？答案依然是——从市场借来的。也就是说，这本质上是用新债去稳住旧债，用更大的杠杆去掩盖更深的风险。当前美国国债总规模已逼近40万亿美元，市场真正担忧的，是这笔巨债未来根本还不上。正因为这种担忧，投资者才选择抛售国债、要求更高的利率补偿。 如今财政部的做法#FinancialReportObserver: Pop Mart's Growth Shifts Gears, Can Multiple IPs Take Over?
"Labubu Fever Cooling, 5 Billion Buyback, How Long Can Pop Mart's God-Making Assembly Line Keep Running?"
Just now! Pop Mart released its mid-year report with revenue of 17.17 billion for the first half, immediately followed by a massive buyback plan of up to 5 billion.
Management directly labeled this year as a "year of operational adjustment," verbally claiming a proactive slowdown for maintenance, but anyone with insight can see that high growth has hit a ceiling.
Last year, a snarling Labubu sparked a buying frenzy across the internet, with secondary market premiums soaring sky-high.
The trendy toy business relies entirely on emotional premiums and impulsive following; once the hype drops, the capital exits, and a single hit product quickly falls into aesthetic fatigue.
In this mid-year report, Labubu's share clearly declined, fully supported by the newly promoted "Star People" selling wildly at 2.65 billion, a year-on-year surge of 580%, taking over the spotlight.
Six IPs generated over 1 billion in revenue each, plush toys surged to 9.8 billion, and rapidly producing substitutes on the assembly line became the only solution.
However, the multi-IP matrix fragments player attention, shortening the lifecycle of individual products, while the heavy asset cost of operating 676 stores worldwide continues to expand.
Spending 5 billion on buybacks can stabilize the short-term stock price, but when young people no longer follow the plastic bubble trend, how much longer can this god-making money printing machine keep running? $BTC 白天还在七万门口磨，晚上直接干穿了。比特币现在站在 7.2 万附近，二十四小时涨了近一成，两日从 6.4 万一口气拉到 7.2 万，创下六月以来最高。这一路冲上来，代价是血淋淋的：Coinglass 数据显示，过去一天全球 19.48 万人爆仓、总金额约 34 亿美金，其中空单爆了 31.3 亿——多单才 2.8 亿。简单说，这波涨幅的燃料，是空头的尸体。 涨的原因三股劲。宏观上，美国财政部扩大长期国债回购，长端收益率回落，风险资产的估值压力松了绑；政策上，SEC 上周抛出加密资产监管草案，特朗普昨天在白宫会了一屋子加密高管，催着国会推 CLARITY 法案；结构上，8 月 19 日那波从 6.4 万到 6.9 万的急拉，把大量空头扫出了场，逼空的惯性又推了一把。三股劲一起拧，价格就飞了。 但真正让链上分析师兴奋的是另一件事。CryptoQuant 创始人 Ki Young Ju 今天发文：比特币现货和永续期货的需求，自 2025 年 10 月创历史新高以来第一次转正。他的原话很谨慎——规模还不大，但如果这个状态能持续一个月，就可以合理推断熊市已经结束、新的牛市周期开始了。 这里有个细Last night's surge was superficially a Treasury market rescue, but the White House secretly added a twist.
On Wednesday, Trump met with executives from Coinbase, Kraken, Blockchain.com, and Robinhood at the White House, urging Congress to quickly pass the CLARITY Act. Senator Tim Scott hinted: September "looks promising." On the same day, the SEC also proposed exemptions for certain digital asset issuance registrations. To translate: presidential endorsement, legislative progress, and SEC easing—all three regulatory moves came together in one day. Crypto stocks took off immediately: Strategy up 12%, Coinbase up 9%.
But a splash of cold water: the Fed minutes released that day were actually hawkish, with several officials favoring rate hikes last month, but the market was too busy celebrating to notice. The perennial bearish commentator Peter Schiff also criticized, saying that doubling repo is equivalent to printing money and inflation is about to soar.
So today's joy is real, but the ledger is being kept by the Fed. Don't go all in; keep some ammo ready for "thanks everyone for your enthusiastic participation". $BTC #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
After the earnings report was released, disagreements immediately exploded. Many people are focused on the explosive growth of the Star People, firmly believing that the multi-IP story has already been proven. I'll lay out my viewpoint: the new IPs have indeed delivered impressive results, but the entire company has already left behind the stage of full-speed sprinting. The biggest current headache is the slowdown in overseas business. Relying solely on a few new domestic characters is not enough to immediately bring growth back onto the fast track.
Let's first clarify the core facts of the earnings report.
Revenue for the first half of the year was ¥17.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, still showing growth; however, the market's previous expectation was close to ¥20 billion, so the performance clearly did not meet institutional expectations. More worrisome is that net profit growth was only 9.5%, with profit expansion lagging far behind revenue growth.
Two major pain points dragging down profits are evident.
The first large loss came from exchange rate fluctuations, which alone wiped out ¥720 million in book gains. The second pressure source is the cooling overseas market, with revenues in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions both declining year-on-year. The overseas craze driven by Labubu in recent years has faded, online traffic overseas has sharply shrunk, while stores continue to expand, and fixed costs like rent and labor keep piling up. The overseas segment has temporarily shifted from a growth engine to a drag.
The current situation is very clear: growth is almost entirely carried by the domestic market alone. Domestic revenue surged 47.3%, with strong explosive power in online channels, while overseas business has temporarily entered a rest period, I am Brother Ci. The July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve have been released: 9 votes in favor of maintaining the interest rate, 3 votes advocating for a rate hike. Logan, Harker, and Kashkari voted against, all calling for a 25 basis point increase. The minutes show that the majority of participants support holding steady, but several officials lean toward raising rates; if inflation does not continue to decline, policy may need to tighten further.
This is the most divided meeting minutes since 2026, with the number of dissenting votes reaching a recent high. CPI and employment data released after the meeting are weakening, and the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from over 70% to about 36%, with a 67% chance of holding steady; different tools show pricing discrepancies. The minutes also specifically mention AI infrastructure financing, AI stock valuations, and potential financial stability risks from U.S. Treasury market volatility—phrasing rarely seen before.
Regarding the impact on BTC, the minutes themselves are hawkish, but the data is dovish, and the market chooses to trust the data. BTC breaking through 72000 is a direct response to improved liquidity expectations. The division itself is not important; what matters is the direction the market is pricing toward. Brother Ci has finished speaking; savor it. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC $ETH $SNDK $BTC| The core indicator of the market, BTC, has risen above $70,000 again. This recent rally is no longer just driven by sentiment; improved liquidity conditions are also beginning to take effect. On August 19, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of about $460 million, marking a recent high single-day inflow. Meanwhile, the U.S. crypto regulatory framework continues to advance, raising market expectations for further institutional capital entry. What really needs to be watched next is not how much BTC can rise in a single day, but whether ETF funds can maintain net inflows. If institutional funds continue to replenish funds, BTC could still become the main driver of the next market upward phase. But if ETF inflows cool down again, the profit-taking pressure after rapid rises cannot be ignored. $ETH| Capital rotation begins to release elasticity. ETH recently reclaimed $2,100 and even briefly broke through $2,300, showing strength significantly higher than before. More noteworthy is that on August 19, the US spot ETH ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $170 million, indicating that institutional funds are refocusing on Ethereum as well as public blockchains, DeFi, and related ecosystems. If overall risk appetite continues to improve, ETH's catch-up potential may still be worth looking forward to, and there is even a possibility of outperforming BTC for a short period. However, short-term gains have clearly expanded, and profit-taking at high levels is accumulating. Therefore, being strong does not mean blindly chasing the rise; waiting for a pullback and confirmation is often more important than buying after candlesticks. $BTC quickly broke above $70,000 from around $64,000, which was not a random spike caused by a single news stimulus, but rather a strong rebound driven by the convergence of multiple factors including the macro environment, regulatory expectations, contract positions, sector capital rotation, and on-chain chip structure. First, the expectation of macro liquidity recovery is the underlying big picture of this round of the market. Previously, long-term US Treasury yields had been rising continuously, suppressing all global risk assets. The US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term bond repurchase operations, directly injecting liquidity into the bond market. After the news was released, long-term US Treasury yields quickly declined, and the US dollar index weakened simultaneously. Bitcoin is a non-interest-bearing risk asset; the higher the US Treasury yields, the greater the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. A decline in yields means that funds are willing to take risks again to seek returns from risk assets. This round saw not only Bitcoin but also the US tech stock sector strengthening simultaneously, with global risk appetite overall warming up, opening valuation repair space for the crypto market. The market is trading on expectations of marginal future liquidity improvement, not on the premise that monetary policy has substantially eased. Second, US regulatory expectations have shifted, and policy narratives have greatly restored market sentiment. Recently, two major events have intensified. One is the SEC releasing a new regulatory draft that sets a safe harbor exemption mechanism, providing a friendlier compliance path for some digital asset issuances; the other is the White House holding a closed-door crypto meeting with senior executives from leading industry companies, publicly pushing for accelerated progress of the CLARITY crypto bill. The market has also heard discussions about the US national bitHow to choose between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100? You can consider the following dimensions
1. Look at returns
Since the Nasdaq 100 was established in 1985 until the end of 2024, the Nasdaq 100's annualized compound return is 14.25%, while the S&P 500's is 11.57% over the same period.
The former experiences more extreme rallies and deeper crashes, like a wild horse, demanding more skill from its rider.
2. Look at components
The S&P 500 covers multiple industries including technology, finance, healthcare, consumer, industrial, energy, utilities, etc., closer to the "U.S. large-cap Beta," with some mature, low-growth companies.
The Nasdaq 100 consists of 100 large non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq. It is not a pure tech index but naturally leans towards technology, internet, AI, semiconductors, and other tech-driven companies.
From day one, the Nasdaq 100 has not aimed for "stability" but for extreme growth.
3. Look at geography
The S&P 500 mainly includes U.S. companies/U.S. issuers, essentially buying "core U.S. assets."
The Nasdaq 100 is also mainly U.S. companies but includes global growth leaders from the Netherlands, the UK, China, and Latin America—like top students studying in the U.S.
4. Look at overlap
Currently, 88 Nasdaq 100 component securities are also in the S&P 500. After June 22, this number will be 89, as Marvell will enter the S&P 500.
Chinese companies like Pinduoduo cannot enter the S&P 500.
The two indices overlap heavily but differ in direction and style.
5. Look at the future
If you believe that in the next 10 years, technology, AI, chips, etc., will continue to be the main themes in capital markets as mobile internet was in the past decade, choose the Nasdaq 100.
If you worry about tech valuations being too high, an AI bubble, or overcrowded leaders, the S&P 500 is more diversified and has a higher margin for error.
6. Look at drawdowns
Data since 1985:
≥10% drawdowns are normal
≥20% drawdowns occurred 6 and 8 times respectively
≥30% drawdowns occurred 4 and 6 times respectively
≥40% drawdowns occurred twice each
Maximum drawdowns were -57% (2008 financial crisis) and -82% (2000 internet bubble)
The S&P 500’s large drawdowns are painful, but the Nasdaq 100’s depth and recovery time are more extreme.
7. Look at cycles
For short-term holding, the Nasdaq 100 is more sensitive to entry points and market sentiment.
For a 10-year long-term holding, especially with dollar-cost averaging, the Nasdaq 100’s high elasticity can become a source of long-term returns.
The S&P 500 requires less timing skill and may be more suitable as a long-term core position for ordinary investors.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 is a more balanced base holding, while the Nasdaq 100 is a more aggressive growth position.
It’s not about which index is better; the choice depends on how much volatility you can tolerate and which long-term theme you believe in #财报观察员: Pop Mart's growth shifts gears, can multiple IPs take over? Family, Pop Mart's latest financial report shows decent numbers, but there are several signals in the details worth a closer look.
Revenue for the first half of the year was 17.17 billion, up 23.8%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 5.04 billion, up 10.1%. Revenue is rising, and profits are also up, but profit growth is clearly lagging behind revenue growth, indicating a trend of increasing revenue without increasing profit. Overseas markets in Asia-Pacific and the Americas fell by 9.7% and 16.5% respectively, temporarily putting a pause on the previously hyped overseas expansion story. Inventory turnover has slowed, indicating that end sales are not as smooth as expected.
The IP structure is also changing. THE MONSTERS, which includes LABUBU, saw revenue decline by 7.5%, while Star People increased nearly sixfold to become the second largest IP. Whether multiple IPs can take over is the key question to be tested next. Whether Pop Mart can transform from being driven by a single blockbuster to continuously producing multiple mid-level IPs will determine the company's future valuation logic.
The biggest fear in the consumer sector is not slowing growth, but the story ending. Pop Mart's biggest trump card in recent years has been its IP operation capability, but no one can predict the lifecycle of the IP itself. $BTC $SNDK The more I look at the market, the more confused I become; my established understanding has been completely overturned: according to the macro logic I've learned, rising energy prices should inevitably suppress corporate profits and push up inflation, causing financial markets and risk assets like cryptocurrencies ($BTC /$ETH) to decline.
But currently, energy prices continue to rise, traditional markets are not falling, and the crypto market has not shown a downward trend, leaving me stunned by reality.
The only possible explanation, I think, is this: it's not that the theory has failed, but the underlying premise of the macro environment has changed:
1. Global economic dependence on energy has significantly decreased, with high-tech industries hedging cost pressures;
2. This round of energy price increases is due to geopolitical supply shocks rather than overheating demand, inflation pressure is controllable, the Fed's rate cut expectations have not been completely shattered, and the core liquidity support for crypto remains;
3. Real economy enterprises and crypto miners have locked in prices in advance, absorbing short-term cost increases;
4. The current market pricing core is the AI narrative and capital liquidity, diluting the influence of the single energy variable $BZ
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ Trump says SEC is pushing for Hyperliquid's compliant entry into the US, marking a historic turning point for DeFi regulation?
According to market news on August 20, US President Trump stated that the SEC Chair is currently focusing on promoting the decentralized derivatives trading platform Hyperliquid to enter the US market in a compliant manner.
The related advancement work is underway, aiming to enable the platform to operate under the existing US regulatory framework, but the specific implementation plan and timeline are not yet clear.
Previously, Hyperliquid representatives have had in-depth discussions with the SEC crypto asset task force regarding the ecosystem, technical architecture, and market regulatory pathways.
If admission is granted in the future, this could not only become a landmark case for the compliance of decentralized derivatives platforms but also accelerate the integration of on-chain trading platforms into the mainstream US financial system.
In my view, if this development is true, it means that US regulators' attitude toward DeFi is shifting from "containment" to "guidance," opening a window for industry compliance.
However, excitement should be tempered with caution—compliance usually involves KYC, data disclosure, and other requirements, which inherently conflict with the core spirit of decentralization.
The real challenge is how to establish a feasible framework without stifling innovation.
Short-term market sentiment may be boosted, but long-term value still depends on execution details and the outcomes of various stakeholders' negotiations.
$HYPE Today, the market saw a strong rebound, with mainstream coins collectively surging and large-scale short stop-losses becoming key fuel for the rise. However, the faster prices rise, the more attention must be paid to data and structural divergence; at this time, emotional chasing is the most taboo. $BTC quickly broke through key resistance within the day, currently holding near $70,600, with 24-hour gains expanding to about 9.2%, and trading volume significantly expanding. In the past 24 hours, about 190,000 people were liquidated across the network, with short positions accounting for the vast majority. This round of gains was partly driven by improved macro liquidity expectations and partly by excessive concentration of short positions, triggering consecutive short squeezes. In the short term, BTC has clearly deviated from the 5-day moving average, indicating the indicator has entered a high-heat zone. The $71,500–$73,000 range remains an important resistance zone. Without sustained new spot funds, it would not be surprising if the rally followed by volatility or even pullbacks. $ETH performed even more impressively, becoming one of the core strong stocks in this rebound. ETH once surged to $2,410 and is currently holding around $2,305, with a 24-hour increase of about 19%, clearly outperforming BTC. ETH's strength comes from a rebound in ecosystem enthusiasm and capital rotating from BTC to highly elastic assets, with catch-up rallies unleashing significant price flexibility. But the problem is also obvious: after a large short-term increase, selling pressure at high levels is increasing, and the marginal momentum for further upward movement is starting to weaken. 📌 My judgment: This is more like a pulse driven by short liquidation + sentiment recovery + capital rotationFrom now on, apart from the strategy's own positions, I subjectively will not chase the upside anymore...
The reason is simple: last night's rally was driven by spot, and during the subsequent sideways movement, the spot premium continued to decline. Today's afternoon rally, however, looks more like it was driven by futures...
So last night, the price and spot premium rose in sync, but now the price is rising while the premium keeps falling, approaching a recent low...
Generally, whenever there is a divergence between futures and spot, a pullback may follow, and the pullback target is usually at the price level where the premium reverses. Therefore, Bitcoin at 69700 is very likely to see a retracement.
The above is purely my personal subjective opinion, for reference only, not investment advice...📊 Reasons for the Crypto Rally
Someone asked what caused this crypto rally. Actually, I don't like hindsight analysis, but to be specific, it still boils down to what I mentioned before about US Treasury yields — this time the US Treasury intervened, and US Treasury yields dropped. Unexpectedly, they couldn't intervene in the yen exchange rate decline, so they directly intervened in US Treasury yields.
📊 Gold and BTC Surge, Triggered by US Treasuries
Last night, the US Treasury announced: the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases will at least double — from a maximum of $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, focusing on 10-30 year maturities.
Once the news broke, gold and BTC both surged: gold jumped from around 4400 to above 4450, rising about $50 in a short time; BTC rose from 65000 to a high of 72000, gaining 7000 points within a day.
🤔 The logic is simple
Why did gold and BTC fall the day before yesterday? Because the US 30-year Treasury yield surged above 5.3% — the higher the yield, the harder it is for non-yielding assets like gold and BTC.
Now the Treasury suddenly increased liquidity support for long-term bonds, and the market immediately understood: the US is seriously addressing long-term debt pressure. Once the pressure eases and yield increases are suppressed, the biggest burden on gold and BTC loosens.
Yesterday yields surged and gold plummeted; today the Treasury acted, and gold and BTC soared — perfectly validating the logic we've been discussing.
📌 What we should really consider
The biggest enemy of gold and BTC is not lack of buyers, but high interest rates.
What’s worth pondering is not this big bullish candle, but why the US chose this moment to double the repurchase scale? The national debt has already exceeded $40 trillion, long-term financing costs are at decade-high levels, and if long-end yields spiral out of control, interest burdens will only increase.
There is also the Fed meeting minutes tonight. If they are not too hawkish, or even start discussing employment and downside risks, gold and BTC could play two cards simultaneously tonight: easing US Treasury pressure + cooling hawkish expectations.
🎯 Conclusion
If gold truly breaks 4500, market sentiment will quickly shift; above 4500, the next target is 5000.
For BTC, if this correction holds around 67000-68000, the next rally could reach 74000.
Once interest rates enter a downtrend cycle, the $40 trillion debt, fiscal deficits, and central bank gold purchases — none of these long-term factors disappear. [Gold at 5000 might just be the first stop in the next round of repricing, and BTC will benefit similarly.]
The important thing is not that gold rose about $50 today or BTC gained 7000 points, but that the market once again shows us how much elasticity gold and BTC have whenever US Treasuries ease.
The above content is only personal market analysis and trading ideas, not any investment advice. Please manage your position size and risk according to your own situation.#Bitcoin A regular rebound from the bottom has greatly increased the probability of successfully forming a bottom range. As for a bull run? Not that fast!
The long-dormant crypto market saw an accelerated rise during the Asia-Europe session, which many friends regard as a bull run. I originally didn’t want to dampen spirits, but looking at the Fibonacci on the daily chart, you’ll find that it has only just broken out of the bottom range and hasn’t even completed an initial rebound yet.
You can actually refer to the low point on February 6, when BTC price completed a regular rebound over 41 periods, but later broke through the rebound and still hit a new low at 58,000.
Of course, I’m not trying to be bearish or scare anyone. From my perspective, a regular rebound or a strong rebound breaking through 74,200 is good for forming the bottom range. Once the rebound completes and pulls back without breaking the new low, the 58,000 level basically marks the completion of the bottom range.
However, to say a new trend has started now feels a bit forced. It’s clear that the Asia-Europe market’s rise is driven by sentiment around macro policies and the White House crypto meeting, with the rise accompanied by shrinking volume. Next, we need to watch if concentrated selling pressure appears at 74,200, which could easily cause a short-term drop or even end the rebound trend directly.
After all, the current macro-side positive factors are time-sensitive. The White House crypto meeting only changed policy expectations but didn’t push actual policies much, so it’s also time-sensitive. As time moves into next week, these positives may well become "history."
Next, we can watch if #BTC price can reach 74,200 and effectively break through and hold above it. If selling pressure activates and it pulls back, watch if it can hold near 69,000.
Overall trend-wise, after touching 74,200, the next pullback that does not break the new low will likely complete the bottom range formation, and only then will a new trend truly start! $BTCToday's rally is not really about how much prices have risen, but about who has started to change their attitude. **BTC has reclaimed the $70,000 level today, even briefly surpassing $71,000 during the session; ETH's gains are even more dramatic, nearing 20% within 24 hours, while major coins like SOL and XRP have also shown clear follow-through. There are two signals worth noting in this market move: first, the US Treasury has increased long-term bond repurchases, indicating a shift in market liquidity expectations; second, Trump is once again pushing for crypto regulatory legislation, reducing policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, a large number of shorts have been liquidated en masse, further accelerating the upward momentum. But I don't think we should be shouting “full bull market” just yet. After a sharp rise, there will definitely be divergences. What really matters is whether BTC can turn $70,000 from a psychological barrier into genuine support. If subsequent pullbacks hold above that level, then capital rotation into assets like ETH, SOL, SUI, DOT, and OKB will be more promising. The biggest mistake in crypto is doubting the future when prices fall and forgetting risks when prices rise. My view is simple: **the market can be wild, but your position sizing must stay sober; the trend can be bullish, but discipline cannot be lost.** Going forward, do you favor BTC continuing to break through, or ETH starting to take over? Share your judgment in the comments. #BTC #ETH #SOL #SUI #DOT #OKB #cryptocurrency Did you catch the $BTC rally?
This surge is not driven by retail sentiment; it's a short squeeze forced by a combination of macroeconomic triggers, regulatory boosts, and shorts getting liquidated all at once.
First, the macro backdrop: The Ministry of Finance aggressively bought long-term government bonds, pushing long bond yields down sharply. This increased and cheapened the money supply in the market, lifting valuations of risk assets overall. BTC, being the most elastic asset, naturally led the charge.
Next, the regulatory triple strike: The SEC eased issuance thresholds, the White House sat down to discuss legislation, and the CFTC pushed for HYPE compliance in the U.S. From primary financing to secondary trading to derivatives, the entire chain is warming up. The biggest burden on crypto was regulatory uncertainty, which has now reversed, instantly igniting bullish sentiment.
Finally, the funding side sealed the deal: ETF funds rushed back in, and institutions had quietly laid down their base positions. Bitmine alone pledged 5 million $ETH, firmly supporting the ecosystem. Meanwhile, shorts stubbornly refused to believe, resulting in $2.7 billion liquidated in 24 hours. Forced liquidations chased the rally, causing more liquidations and further price surges, pushing the price from over 60,000 to the doorstep of 70,000 without giving any chance for a pullback.
All of the above is personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Risk appetite returns, BTC leads mainstream recovery
$BTC is strongly approaching $70,000, $ETH has surpassed the 2,000 mark, and SOL also benefits from liquidity inflows, rising nearly 2%. The driving forces behind this rebound come from three aspects: short squeeze pressure from short covering, expectations of improved US crypto policies, and capital flowing back into large-cap blue-chip assets.
From the market structure perspective, the clear tiered pattern of BTC leading, ETH following, and SOL catching up may indicate a systematic repair of market risk appetite. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether BTC can hold above 70K and whether there will be more positive policy releases.现在我更关注的，不是哪一个币单独上涨，而是资金有没有开始从主流资产向不同赛道扩散。 $BTC 和 $ETH 依然是判断市场方向的核心，但如果资金开始寻找新的叙事，真正有意思的行情可能才刚刚开始。 我的观察名单： 🟠 $BTC — 判断大盘趋势 🔵 $ETH — 观察风险偏好是否扩大 🟣 $SOL — L1生态与链上活跃度 🟢 $SUI — 新兴L1资金轮动 ⚡ $LINK — 基础设施赛道 🏦 $ONDO — RWA叙事 💧 $AAVE — DeFi资金回流 🔴 $XRP — 大市值山寨关注度 🤖 $TAO — AI赛道表现 🔥 $HYPE — 高Beta动能 我真正想看到的，不是“哪个币今天涨了”。 而是： 买盘到底是在挑选少数强势资产，还是整个市场的风险偏好正在扩散？ 如果 $BTC 横盘企稳，而 $ETH 持续走强，我会开始重点观察 $SOL 和 $SUI。 如果DeFi板块出现同步放量，$AAVE 的信号会更加值得关注。 如果RWA重新成为资金热点，$ONDO 可能迎来新的关注。 如果AI代币开始出现集体异动，那么 $TAO 的表现就不能再简单看成单币行情。 Latest position plan $XMR +0.75×, about 687 USD; $MSFT +0.65×, about 590 USD; $GRAM -0.75×, about 679 USD. Portfolio gross 2.15×, net +0.65×. Rebalancing record: closed $BTC -0.50×, newly opened $GRAM -0.75×; $XMR and $MSFT unchanged. Rebalancing rationale: Although $BTC source increased short position to about 1.61m USD, overall 30-day PnL has dropped to about -55k USD, with about -68k USD on the day, invalidating the original verification condition. Smart money focus: $GRAM source still holds about 857k USD short position, with recent 30-day portfolio PnL about +101k USD, GRAM attribution about +10.1k USD, and no spot hedging observed for the same asset. $XMR and $MSFT sources maintain long positions of about 682k and 193k USD respectively. Next step: observe whether $GRAM maintains short positions above 750k USD, and continue to check if $XMR and $MSFT show substantial position reductions. Gold’s recent weakness seems to be influenced more by macro forces—particularly a stronger dollar and shifting interest-rate expectations—rather than simply easing geopolitical tensions.
At the same time, crypto’s relatively modest pullback could suggest that institutions are increasingly treating digital assets, especially Bitcoin, as a distinct asset class instead of merely a high-risk investment.
#BTCBreaks72K
#FOMC9To3Split
#PopMartEarningsWatch $BTC $ETH Fellow crypto friends, with the US stock market opening tonight, I'm bullish and my view is very clear.
First, looking at the pre-market: Nasdaq futures are up 0.4% now, crypto-related stocks are exploding — MSTR up over 10%, COIN up 7%+, this directly reflects crypto sentiment in the US stock market. Bitcoin has even surpassed 72000, capital is definitely flowing into high-risk assets.
The core logic is threefold:
1. The Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond buybacks to at least 4 billion yesterday, the 30-year US Treasury yield dropped sharply from 5.33% to 5.189%, easing liquidity panic, which is solid support.
2. The Fed minutes' hawkish remarks have already been priced in by the market; instead, Trump's meeting with crypto executives pushing for legislation provides a floor for high-risk assets.
3. Storage chip stocks are also rising pre-market, SK Hynix up over 4%, indicating tech stocks are taking over the baton.
Tonight's opening will most likely gap up and continue rising. Focus on the Nasdaq and crypto-related targets, they are the leaders. Don't be fooled by the small fluctuations in the Dow; capital now recognizes tech and crypto as the two main lines.
Of course, the market has risks, this is just my personal judgment, not a call to go all in. But I see at least a 70% chance of winning if going long tonight.
$ETHAt this position for BOME, on-chain anomalies have already manifested in the naked K-line structure. The current price of 0.00120170 is one level down; the 0.00116 to 0.00118 range is a dense turnover zone where the previous round of whales built positions. The buy order depth is noticeably higher than the active sell pressure above. Upwards, from 0.00124 to 0.00127, there are three large short orders still in place, indicating no intention to immediately push through this level.
Looking at the changes in open interest, it has increased by nearly 7% in the past four hours, while the price has remained flat around 0.00120. This is a typical structure of bulls and bears increasing their stakes against each other. Tracking the whales, two marked addresses transferred about 4.7 million U from cold wallets to contract accounts but have not acted yet; the funds are waiting for a breakout point. The funding rate quietly climbed from 0.01% to 0.037%, indicating that the bulls are secretly adding positions, but spot volume is not cooperating, so the probability of a short-term bull trap is high.
I just parked the car under a tree and took a bite of bread, and the price on the screen jumped back two ticks, with the order call vibrating my hand numb. Back to the logic, this round will most likely first dip down for a washout before pulling up, knocking out the chasing bulls once and for all.
So, the entry range is set at 0.00118 to 0.00119; if it breaks below 0.00116, immediately defend and stop loss by exiting. The first target is 0.00127, the second target is 0.00134. This trade will either recover the losses from the day before yesterday or continue to trigger stop orders, so there is no reason to hesitate.
$BOME
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
@OKX星球 Fundamental Research Report $MANA / Decentraland (GameFi) $3.20
One-sentence conclusion: Decentraland ($MANA) overall score 50/100, rating narrative over execution. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Project overview: Decentraland (token $MANA), GameFi sector. Focused on Metaverse VR. Competitors include SAND, AXS. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, and user data is not controlled by users. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend is $50-500/month, settled in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User metrics: MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing seen on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales seen in whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem grants are grade B and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration seen via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Decentraland $3.00B, SAND undisclosed, AXS undisclosed. FDV: Decentraland $4.20B, SAND undisclosed, AXS undisclosed. Annual revenue: Decentraland $2.00M, SAND undisclosed, AXS undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Decentraland undisclosed, SAND undisclosed, AXS undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario with revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects.
Summary: fundamentals solid (score 50/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relies solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Ongoing monitoring: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources for reference only, not investment advice. If indicator deviation exceeds 30%, reassessment needed.
Report ends here, welcome to discuss.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit The people in the banking sector are really something
They verbally support the CLARITY Act, with 76 state banking associations jointly pressuring in July, 134 executives following up with letters at the end of the month, and the Citibank CEO openly warning that rewards will drain deposits and weaken community lending. But the problem is JPMorgan Chase savings accounts only offer 0.01% interest—how can you say that with a straight face?
The GENIUS Act has already blocked the path for issuers to pay interest directly. USDC is backed by cash and U.S. Treasury reserves, with the bulk of the interest going to Circle and Coinbase, while users just watch helplessly. In May, the two parties finally compromised—no rewards for pure holding, but rewards for transaction and payment activities can remain; the Senate Banking Committee passed it 15 to 9.
Yet at the end of July, the banking industry jumped out again, demanding that "substantially similar to interest" holding rewards be banned as well, even trying to cut off holding incentives given by exchanges. So the rules are all set by your family?
BTC and ETH are unaffected by this; the ones getting blocked are stablecoins like USDC. In September, the Senate must first pass the 60-vote cloture threshold before the final vote.
To be frank, they talk about financial stability, but the essence is fear of deposits moving away; the banks are getting anxious.
Here's today's market update: the leader $BTC is around 72000, $ETH is the strongest today, around 2280, holding the second spot firmly; $SOL is also surging, around 87, still strong in the public chain rankings.
All three are beyond the reach of the CLARITY Act—the yield ban only targets stablecoins, so they rise and surge as they should, completely ignoring the banks' petty calculations. "This recent surge is not the start of a new bull market, but a resonance of multiple expectations.
First, new regulatory draft proposals have emerged in the US, coupled with a closed-door crypto meeting at the White House, leading the market to speculate on an improved regulatory environment and a rebound in sentiment;
Second, BTC spot ETFs have ended outflows and returned to net inflows, with institutional funds supporting the bottom;
Third, the market has lowered its expectations for a September rate hike, combined with concentrated short squeeze liquidations boosting the rally.
However, the heavy pressure from high US Treasury yields remains, and the overall performance of US stocks is weak. This is a rebound, not a reversal, with significant resistance above. Be cautious of a pullback after the positive news is priced in."Fed's Daly "Pours Cold Water": No Rate Hike, Don't Panic! BTC and ETH Can Breathe Easy.
Fed's Daly latest statement sends a clear signal: policy is "in a good place," and "there is no evidence to support an early rate hike." This contrasts sharply with the hawkish tone in previous meeting minutes where "several officials supported a rate hike," effectively dousing the market's rate hike panic.
Plain interpretation: Daly is a voting member this year, and her remarks indicate the Fed is not uniformly hawkish internally. Since "no rate hike" is reiterated, the biggest short-term macro downside is temporarily lifted, allowing risk assets to catch a breather.
Short-term impact on BTC and ETH:
Short-term bullish bias. The fading rate hike expectations directly suppress the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, easing liquidity tightening concerns and boosting risk appetite. BTC short-term resistance is around 72650; ETH short-term resistance is around 2320.
But note: Daly is not fully dovish but "maintaining the status quo," with rate cuts still far off. The positive impact is limited; do not blindly chase highs. The key is whether support levels (BTC 71000 / ETH 2250) hold after a pullback from the rally. Buy on dips if support holds; cut losses if broken, and follow the trend.
$BTC $ETH $BTC this long position at 64246, 100x leverage, now at 71738, floating profit 1166%. Not because of news like "Nasdaq companies liquidating crypto assets and turning to machines," but the market gave signals earlier: the low point at 64666 was not broken, and the volume spike directly pushed the price from 64xxx to 68xxx. Afterwards, the 68-70 range formed a step pattern, indicating it’s not a fake rally but funds are re-entering.
On the 4-hour chart, 72492 is the previous high resistance, now 71745 is consolidating at a high level, with volume slightly lower than during the rise. The key here is not to shout for continued bull run, but to see if the 71000-70000 range can hold. If it holds, there’s a chance to test 72492 or even higher; if it falls back to 68xxx, it means the breakout funds are hesitating, and 100x leverage can’t be stubbornly held.
BTC liquidity is sufficient, but 100x leverage can still get stopped out by a single wick. I go long because of low-level support and trend recovery, not because of the mainstream coin’s name. The floating profit is just a safety cushion now; I follow the market moves later and don’t treat the percentage as a balance. The market always has the next trade; surviving first means having the next trade. $ETH #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ The perspective that accumulating CORE holdings takes precedence over chasing price is a typical spot-focused behavior that emerges in phases where derivative leverage is burdensome. This psychology, where quantity itself becomes a source of reassurance, holds particular significance in the current funding and open interest structure of the CORE futures market. The original text is a kind of accumulation diary documenting an anonymous holder's process of increasing their CORE quantity. There is no mention of price fluctuations; the focus is solely on increasing quantity. The importance of this post in market observation lies in the behavior of evaluating positions based on quantity rather than price, which directly contrasts with the current leverage demand in the CORE derivatives market. Instead of buying futures expecting price increases, it is a method of steadily accumulating spot to increase long-term holdings. - Key fact: The author prioritizes accumulating CORE quantity and shows an intention not to respond to price fluctuations for the time being. No specific price targets or sell plans were presented. - Market structure interpretation: This is not a short-term price bet but a supply absorption strategy.I have already written many articles today, arguing from different angles that this rally is only temporary. Now I am looking for another angle to argue. Yesterday, when Trump spoke, he mentioned pushing Congress to pass the "Clarify Act" bill. This plan is meant to regulate crypto, and if it passes, it would be a big positive for crypto. If Trump's speech were really very effective, then the probability in the prediction market should have risen significantly. But that did not happen. —————————————————— Let's look at the changes in the prediction market before and after. It can be seen that the probability of passing only increased by one point after Trump's speech. This change is even smaller than usual fluctuations. This indicates that Trump's speech did not have much impact on the bill's passage. In other words, this rally has no substantial positive factors. I trust the probabilities in the prediction market because after all, they are backed by real money. I believe most people would not joke with their own money. —————————————————— As the saying goes, bears often have long bullish days. Why is this said? Because during bear markets, many shorts accumulate, and once the price has a slightly obvious movement, it triggers massive short liquidations, which pushes the overall price higher. This time, Trump's speech was the fuse that ignited the airdrop's explosive powder. In the end, under the overall effect, it created the current result. However, IWhen the screen was on, I stared at that K-line and suddenly realized I wasn’t trading, I was enduring. Have you ever had that moment: your position is still there, but your mind has already withdrawn? Actually, I originally planned to hold a medium to long-term position. The rhythm of BTC is relatively stable, but what really wore me out was SanDisk. Five days of roller coaster rides back and forth, I lost count of how many times I was thrown off and pulled back, and in the end, my psychological defense was pierced by a single spike. It wasn’t that I couldn’t bear the losses, it was that hanging feeling that drained me the most. SK Hynix wasn’t doing any better; every time it seemed about to break through, it would turn around and slap you in the face. So I made a decision: temporarily no new positions, exit first, and reset my emotions. This retreat actually made me see one thing clearly. Everyone is now focusing on the linkage between US chip stocks and crypto, but the real underlying thread is cross-market emotional resonance. The volatility of SanDisk and SK Hynix isn’t just about the storage sector; behind them is a rapid shift in risk appetite. When funds in traditional markets start to hesitate, BTC will also be affected, just with a time lag. The signals I see are as follows: - Funding rates have returned to relatively low levels, indicating that leveraged long positions have been cleared out, and squeeze risk is actually decreasing - BTC’s lows within the range are being tested repeatedly, but each time there is buying support, which is a sign that funds are quietly building positions - The follow-through selling pressure on altcoins is weakening, indicating that panic sentiment has been largely released The bullish logic is that if cross-market risk appetiteBOME ripping +42%, NEIRO +21%, ORDI almost +20%. Three very different tokens, three different chains, same green candles. When meme, dog-successor, and Bitcoin inscription names move in the same window like this, it usually means risk appetite is back and traders are rotating through the usual suspects rather than discovering something new. I’ve been watching these names on and off for a while. Here’s what the move actually looks like once you strip away the emoji spam and the “to the moon” repl$BTC strongly broke through $71K, $ETH once approached $2.3K, and $SOL also climbed back near $87, showing a clear recovery in market risk appetite. Latest data shows that the US spot BTC ETF had a single-day net inflow of about $517M, the highest since early May; the ETH ETF attracted about $189M on the same day, and the SOL ETF recorded a net inflow of about $2.1M. More importantly, this rally is not just driven by sentiment. The return of ETF funds combined with over $1B in short liquidations is creating a dual push of "capital buying + short covering." My observations: 🔹 BTC: Largest capital scale, still the core of institutional allocation 🔹 ETH: ETF inflows significantly increased, elasticity beginning to release 🔹 SOL: Smaller capital scale, but if growth continues, it could become the next high Beta direction The real key is not how much it rose today, but whether ETF net inflows can be sustained continuously. If funds keep flowing back, BTC may lead the rally, while the catch-up potential of ETH and SOL deserves close attention.📈 The market remains quite volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto #ETF #Bitcoin[Aheng On Duty Today | August 20] BTC Breaks $70,000: Capital Confirmation Strengthens, but Macro Does Not Turn Dovish
1. Market Snapshot
BTC: $71,578, 24h +11.06%
ETH: $2,273, 24h +18.25%
SOL: $87.23, 24h +12.65%
Total market cap about $2.44 trillion, up about 10.9% in 24h; trading volume about $155.3 billion, up about 240% from the previous day. The Fear and Greed Index rose to 61, with market sentiment quickly shifting from cautious to optimistic.
This time, BTC is not the only one rising. Assets like ETH, SOL, and XRP are also strengthening simultaneously, indicating that risk appetite has spread; however, BTC’s market dominance remains around 59.2%, meaning capital has not fully shifted to small-cap assets.
2. Clear Confirmation of ETF Capital Flows
August 19 US Spot ETF Net Inflows:
BTC: about $517 million
ETH: about $187 million
SOL: about $2.5 million
BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows of about $1 billion over three consecutive trading days, ETH about $289 million in the same period. The previous condition of “price rebound but capital not fully confirmed” has now been partially validated by continuous capital inflows.
Note: As of August 20, the US market has not yet formed complete ETF data, so today’s intraday rise should not be directly equated with a new round of ETF inflows.
3. Fed Minutes Are Not Dovish
The latest FOMC minutes show:
Most members support keeping rates at 3.5% to 3.75%;
Several members believe that if inflation does not continue to decline, further tightening may be necessary;
Final vote was 9 to 3, with three members advocating a 25 basis point rate hike;
Participants generally see inflation risks as tilted to the upside.
Therefore, today’s rise cannot be simply explained as “the Fed preparing to cut rates.” A more reasonable interpretation is that ETF capital inflows, risk appetite recovery, and position repricing temporarily overshadowed the hawkish macro information.
4. Correcting a Common Misinterpretation
Some pages list “the US establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve” as the reason for today’s rise, but this executive order was actually issued on March 6, 2025, and is not a new policy today.
The original order allowed the Treasury and Commerce Departments to study an increase plan “without increasing taxpayer costs,” but this does not mean the government has already purchased BTC today. As of this writing, I have not found any new BTC purchase documents released today by the White House or the US Treasury.
5. Aheng’s Phase Judgment
Yesterday’s judgment was “capital confirmation has begun, but sustainability still needs observation.”
Today it can be upgraded to:
Price confirmation: appeared
BTC ETF continuous inflows: verified
ETH, SOL strengthening simultaneously: verified
Macro environment turning dovish: not verified, even leaning hawkish
Whether the rise can continue: still to be verified
Next, focus on three things:
Whether BTC can form an effective daily close around $70,000 instead of quickly returning to the pre-breakout range;
Whether BTC and ETH spot ETFs continue net inflows after the big rise;
Whether ETH’s relative strength can continue, and whether BTC’s market dominance begins to decline.
If the price quickly returns to the pre-breakout range, volume shrinks significantly, and ETFs turn back to net outflows, then today’s “capital confirmation upgrade” judgment needs to be downgraded.
Look at the capital first, then listen to the story; write invalidation conditions first, then opinions.
This post is for market research and information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice. On November 5, 2024, Trump won, and Bitcoin broke through the March high of 74,000 that day. At that time, all altcoins had just broken out of their bottom range, marking the start of a bull market. I clearly remember that day—the entire crypto community was celebrating, the group was lively, and everyone celebrated the big rally. Even so, it still kicked off the main bull market, with Bitcoin pushing straight to $100,000. Here's a question: why can a bull market still start even when optimism is still present? Many people have a misconception: when a bull market starts, it should be pessimistic, skeptical, and collectively bearish. In reality, the foundation of a bull market is always chip clearing and selling pressure exhaustion. On this basis, the mood under which the bull market starts doesn't matter much. Look at the following two cases: At the beginning of 2023, BTC jumped directly from 16,000 to 30,000, filled with doubts—bear market rebound, scams, and don't take over. But that was the starting point of a big bull run, and those shouting scams missed the whole segment. This kind of pessimism and skepticism are even more common. People mistakenly believe that a normal bull market should start like this. On November 5, 2024, during the Trump election, that day was also the start of a bull market. Because altcoins were still trading at the bottom, the entire crypto community was celebrating Bitcoin's new high. Faith soared, people posted on social media and shared their earnings. In the following month, Bitcoin surged directly past 100,000, and altcoins surged 30% in a single day. Optimism did not stop the bull market from starting. Back to the present, Ethereum has surged violently in the past two days, breaking through 2#财报观察员：Is Pop Mart shifting gears in growth, and can multiple IPs take over?
LABUBU is still hot, but what Pop Mart really needs to prove now is not "whether it can still sell explosively," but whether it can continue to grow after moving away from relying on a single blockbuster.
The most eye-catching part of this earnings report is still the China market, with revenue up 47.3% year-over-year, basically carrying the main growth. But overseas markets are clearly cooling down, with Asia-Pacific and Americas revenues down 9.7% and 16.5% respectively, which is quite a contrast worth noting.
Previously, when people mentioned Pop Mart, the first reaction was almost always LABUBU. It indeed pushed the company to a very high position, but the trouble with a blockbuster is this: once the market pins all growth expectations on one IP, every following quarter will be questioned—can it keep being this hot?
So I am actually more focused on Star People.
This time, Star People's revenue grew nearly sixfold, already becoming the company's second largest IP. This signal is quite important, showing that Pop Mart is at least starting to prove it doesn't have to rely solely on LABUBU to hold the stage.
If in the future LABUBU can be responsible for global popularity, and Star People along with other IPs take turns carrying the baton, then Pop Mart's logic will gradually shift from "betting on one blockbuster" to "having the ability to continuously create blockbusters."
@OKX中文 #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
Trump's White House hinted at considering additional Bitcoin purchases, instantly igniting fantasies within the community.
But the reality must be clear: merely considering related proposals does not mean immediately entering the market with real money.
The U.S. strategic reserves currently rely mainly on confiscated assets; actually spending money to buy coins involves multiple legislative and budgetary hurdles.
The market loves to treat "expectations" as already realized benefits, and chasing news hype is the easiest way to fall into traps. The market made a sharp reversal on Wednesday, with BTC surging past 70,000 and ETH exploding nearly 20% in a single day. However, many overlook a reality: this is not a broad bull market rally; many altcoins only rose 5-7%, and quite a few remain at low levels. This round of gains is a resonance of "short squeeze + macro liquidity + favorable policies," not simply a large influx of spot funds. 💥 The primary driver of the rise: $1.2 billion in shorts liquidated within one hour Previously, the market accumulated a large number of short positions. The price broke through key resistance levels upward, triggering a chain of forced liquidations. Shorts had to buy back positions to cover, and passive buying further pushed the market up, creating positive feedback. BTC surged to a new high since June 2, with volume expanding simultaneously, but there is still obvious selling pressure above, and the consolidation pattern has not completely ended. The biggest feature of a short squeeze rally: extremely strong explosive power. If subsequent spot incremental funds do not keep up, it is easy to see a sharp rise followed by a pullback. 📜 Two major external catalysts ignite market risk appetite 1. The U.S. Treasury expands long-term bond repurchases, releasing liquidity expectations The Treasury will increase monthly long-term Treasury repurchases from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, starting September 9 and continuing until November 4. The goal is to improve U.S. Treasury liquidity and ease upward pressure on long-term yields. Market interpretation: marginal easing of financial conditions, favorable for risk assets. ⚠️ Key point: This is a Treasury operation, not a Federal Reserve rate cut; do not confuse the two. U.S. debt is close to $40 trillion, and the long-term effects of this policy remain uncertain. 2. White House crypto closedWhy is $BTC rising? The interesting part is that the catalyst may have little to do with Bitcoin itself. The bigger story is liquidity, bond markets, short covering, and changing risk appetite. Here’s how I’m looking at it: 1️⃣ U.S. Treasury buybacks increased.
The size of individual operations reportedly rose from around $2B to at least $4B. 2️⃣ The focus is on longer-dated Treasuries.
The buybacks target bonds in the 10–30 year range, including some of the market’s longest-duration government 📊 Market trading volume remains cautious, but recent capital conditions have shown significant improvement, and the trading logic of different assets is diverging.
BTC｜Market's core barometer
BTC has broken through $70,000 again. The latest rally is driven not only by improved macro liquidity expectations but also by the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recording about $517 million in net inflows on August 19, marking a multi-month single-day high. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to push forward crypto regulatory frameworks, further improving market sentiment.
The real focus going forward is not the single-day gains but whether ETF funds can sustain net inflows. If institutional capital continues to increase, BTC has the potential to be the main driving force in the next market phase.
ETH｜Resilience begins to re-emerge
ETH recently reclaimed the $2,000 level and even briefly surpassed $2,200. More notably, on August 19, the U.S. spot ETH ETF saw approximately $189 million in inflows, the largest single-day inflow since October 2025.
This indicates that capital is refocusing on public chains and DeFi assets. If market risk appetite continues to recover, ETH’s catch-up potential could be significantly higher than BTC’s, but after a rapid short-term rise, profit-taking risks should also be watched.
BEAT｜High narrative + high supply pressure
BEAT’s core driver remains AI music and emerging tech narratives, so market sentiment impacts it far more than BTC or ETH. On the other hand, about 21.25 million BEAT tokens were unlocked in early August, accounting for roughly 6.9% of the circulating supply at that time, which noticeably increased selling pressure.
Currently, the market needs to observe whether the buyback/burn mechanism can continue to offset the new supply. The next major unlock is expected on September 1, with about 11.25 million BEAT tokens, so it remains a highly volatile speculative asset in the short term.
🔎 The current market structure can be simply understood as:
BTC → Determines the overall market direction
ETH → Benefits from capital rotation with higher resilience
BEAT / small-cap altcoins → Depend on narrative and liquidity, offering high returns but also higher risks
The recent market trend has shifted from "lack of liquidity" to "capital cautiously testing risk assets" but cannot yet be interpreted as a full bull market. If trading volume and ETF net inflows do not expand simultaneously, small-cap tokens are still more prone to rapid surges and quick pullbacks.
NFA / DYORStop bragging about "160 billion entering the market"; the essence of this surge is that the shorts are tied to the rack, forcibly liquidated as fuel.
A single bullish candle pierced 69,000, ETH surged straight to 2342, the whole network is showing off profits, but no one dares to expose the truth:
This is not an incremental bull market, it's an epic short squeeze.
• 24h total liquidations across the network: $1.9 billion to $3.3 billion, 127,000 to 180,000 people liquidated
• Short liquidations account for 91%, Hyperliquid single liquidation of $48.8 million evaporated instantly
• Shorts who stubbornly held through June's sideways market were wiped out overnight
The so-called "160 billion entering the market" is mostly forced buybacks from shorts covering, not real spot money opening positions.
The day before yesterday, someone placed a long ETH order at 1896 but closed at the starting point, painful for not holding on, but the structure is correct:
Volume contraction triangle + 1860 repeatedly tested but not broken = short momentum weakening, a bull ambush zone. Daring to go long at low levels relies on cognition, not shorting at high levels because the short squeeze wave is topping out = sending bullets to squeeze shorts.The crypto market suddenly exploded collectively these past two days, with BTC climbing back above $71,000, and assets like ETH, SOL, and ORDI also showing significant gains. Many people simply interpret this market movement as "market sentiment returning." However, I prefer to understand this rally through changes in U.S. interest rates, the Treasury market, and dollar liquidity. Because for assets like BTC that generate no cash flow, the truly important variable is: How expensive is dollar funding? 1. Why have I started paying attention to short-term interest rates? BTC itself does not generate interest. When the U.S. short-term risk-free yield is very high, holding dollar cash, money market funds, or short-term U.S. Treasuries can already yield decent returns. So why would funds take on huge volatility risks to buy BTC? Therefore, I believe that compared to simply watching the 10-year Treasury, changes in short-term interest rates and the cost of dollar funding are more worth monitoring. The logic is simple: High short-term rates → expensive dollar funding → high leverage costs → suppressed risk appetite → BTC under pressure. Conversely, if: Short-term rates peak → funding costs decline → liquidity pressure eases → risk appetite recovers → BTC begins to gain valuation repair space. This is why I think recent changes in short-term rates deserve attention. 2. An interesting combination has now emerged. Currently, the 10-year Treasury yield remains at a relatively high level, but short-term yields have already fallen from previous highs. According to the data in the chart: the 10-year Treasury is about 4.A bullish candle rewrites the script: ETH surged straight to 2342 in 15 minutes, BTC violently broke through 69000, with volume climbing stepwise. Over 1.9 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24h, with shorts accounting for 91%, and a single Hyperliquid trade evaporated 48.8 million — all short positions held stubbornly in June were completely wiped out.
The day before yesterday, I entered a long on ETH at 1896 but closed at the entry point, painful for not holding on, yet the logic was sound: low volume triangle + 1860 repeatedly tested but not broken, short momentum weakening means a long ambush zone. Daring to go long at lows relies on structure, avoiding shorts at highs because trying to top in a short squeeze wave is like feeding bullets. The direction didn’t lose to the market, but to my own itchy hands #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ The U.S. Treasury has stepped in, increasing the single long-term Treasury repo size from 2 billion to at least 4 billion dollars, directly expanding market liquidity significantly.
After the news, the dollar weakened and Treasury yields fell simultaneously.
Although the Federal Reserve did not choose to raise rates, the surge in long-term Treasury yields is equivalent to a disguised rate hike by the market. The sustained high interest rates continue to pressure, posing a risk of bursting the stock market bubble, forcing the Treasury to step in to inject liquidity.
When the fiscal side covertly starts easing, the dollar credit is continuously diluted, and the fixed total supply of $BTC naturally benefits fully.
History repeatedly proves that when the money printing cycle restarts, Bitcoin never misses the rally.
$ETH will also follow the liquidity dividend and release elastic space.
$BTC $ETHMarket Snapshot
Bitcoin current price is $71,965.80, up 11.56% in 24 hours. The amplitude closed at 12.44 percentage points, indicating considerable volatility.
The 24-hour high was $72,495.00, the low was $64,471.60, with a trading volume of $1.32B, showing active turnover between bulls and bears.
Across the market, 127 assets rose while 21 fell, with 85.8% of assets gaining, clearly reflecting market sentiment.
Focus on the L2/sidechain sector with $ARB, trading volume is relatively small; first watch if smart money makes a move.
Watch the exchange token sector with $OKB, volatility has narrowed; wait for directional confirmation before acting.
Top 3 gainers are $BOME +74.37%, $ORDI +29.45%, and $NEIRO +26.82%, smart money has already placed their bets.
Top 3 losers are $DOS -8.45%, $AEON -7.88%, and $XSOXL -7.30%, profit-taking traders have abruptly exited.
In short: the number of rising and falling assets sets the tone, the leaders in gains and losses set the direction; don’t go against smart money.
Public market data provided does not constitute investment advice; make your own judgment.
Signals have been given; whether to act is your decision. $ETH continues to surge, with a take-profit order at 2300 reducing half of the position.
I’m taking some profit from this wave first; holding on will feel much more comfortable.
The price is still holding at a high level, the strength hasn’t completely faded, but there’s obvious resistance left at 2342, so I have no intention to add to my position.
I’ll keep the remaining position for now and watch which direction this high-level consolidation will choose in the end.
If it can continue to rise, I’ll let the profits run a bit longer; if it really starts to weaken, I’ll close the position more decisively than before.
First, secure the profits already made, so I can confidently observe the space ahead slowly.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在