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Any BTC bought in 2025 would be at a loss if held until now. Therefore, as long as the 2025 chips decrease, except for wallet transfers, the rest are sell-offs at a loss.
As of today, there are still 4.77 million BTC from 2025, down 41.5% from the peak in December last year.
The slope of the downward trend clearly has two segments: a rapid decline before February, and a slowdown after February, but still maintaining a certain slope.
This group is probably the largest supply side in the current market.
Comparing data from 2024, 2023, and 2022, it’s not hard to see that these chips with unrealized gains have basically passed the steep phase of the decline slope.
Moreover, the longer the time, the smaller the slope. From the chart, the slope of the curve after February almost became a straight line.
Even if the price falls further, the change in the number of these chips is not obvious. In other words, those who needed to turnover have done so, and the rest remain inactive.
From the past two bear markets, at the 2022 bear bottom, the high-position chips from 2021 dropped by 51%; at the 2018 bear bottom, the high-position chips from 2017 dropped by 62%;
If we simply extrapolate, I personally think the bottom of this bear market will be at most 50-60% (currently 41%), not yet considering BTC bought by 2025 ETFs and MicroStrategy, most of which are locked and inactive.Breadth 2 up 13 down, what exactly is this market afraid of?
$BTC this hour $63,380, 24h -0.55%, volume overnight exploded from +37% then shrank back -90.8% to extremely low volume. FG 29 Fear, OI 109,900 unchanged, Funding +0.0091% neutral — leverage unchanged, what’s withdrawing are spot longs.
The real cracks are outside the snapshot: Neutrl’s NUSD just suspended redemptions citing "reserve opacity." Small stablecoins are starting to be run on, coinciding with breadth collapsing to 2 up 13 down and a liquidity vacuum. This isn’t about one coin, it’s when confidence bottoms that even the word "stable" starts to waver.
Framework takeaway: extremely low volume + breadth collapse + stablecoin credit leakage together = vacuum accelerating, not stabilizing. True stabilization requires breadth to stop falling + volume to return to average, neither is happening now.
Blind spot: snapshot doesn’t show NUSD’s depeg extent, can’t tell if it’s a localized run or spreading. Need to confirm if next round has a second stablecoin pausing + breadth breaking below 2 up.
This round, do you trust "extremely low volume bottom" to buy in, or "cracks just beginning" to stay out? Comment your choice with reasons, I’ll translate.
Crypto assets are high risk, the above is purely personal speculation and not investment advice.
#OKXPlanet $BTC #StablecoinRisk #SafeHavenClustering #LiquidityDryUp 🔥Strange market! Inflation data cools across the board, so why are BTC and ETH reluctant to rally?
$BTC $ETH
Recently, the market has seen a puzzling phenomenon. The toughest part of the market isn't a crash, but rather multiple positive factors arriving one after another, yet the crypto market remains lifeless, as if asleep.
Reviewing recent key inflation data reveals a trend shift: CPI year-over-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, core CPI dropped to 2.5%; PPI performed even weaker than market expectations, remaining flat month-over-month. According to past market patterns, sustained cooling of inflation means easing pressure on Fed rate hikes, and various risk assets should attract capital inflows, triggering a recovery rally.
But the actual price action sharply breaks these expectations.
BTC briefly surged to 63998 before momentum abruptly stopped, with price falling back to oscillate around 63450; ETH hit a high of 1899.48 but was rejected, currently hovering near 1886. Each small spike is quickly followed by a pullback, unable to hold gains.
Digging beneath the surface, the root of the current market contradiction is not at the macro level. The easing inflation data indeed temporarily removes the risk of continued rate hikes, but this positive news cannot magically bring incremental buying into the crypto market. Capital preferences have clearly diverged: the US stock AI sector and storage tracks continue to absorb market risk funds, while BTC and ETH are powerless to absorb major positive catalysts. The dominant force in the market now is holders using the rebound to sell; there is no sign of active capital rushing in to accumulate.
Given this market structure, I won’t blindly predict a trend reversal based on a single PPI report. The future market direction hinges on two key signals:
First, BTC needs to firmly hold above the 64000 level to avoid this pulse rally followed by a quick plunge;
Second, ETH must successfully reclaim the 1900 level and hold support during any pullbacks without losing it again.
If these two major coins fail to break through key resistance levels, then the positive effects from CPI and PPI will only provide a brief floor for the market, at best offering a temporary breather, insufficient to spark a sustained uptrend.
The most frustrating market moves are never the rapid drops caused by negative shocks. It’s the persistent macro tailwinds while your holdings remain stuck sideways, watching opportunities emerge in other sectors.
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 $BTC $ETH Chip stocks lead the rally, with Korean stocks rebounding over 22% in ten days. This wave most resembles a "rebound repair after deleveraging." Earlier, Korean stocks fell sharply, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and other AI memory chain stocks all being hit together. Many thought the fundamentals had deteriorated. But now it looks more like positions were too crowded, margin financing was too heavy, and sentiment was too full. Once foreign capital and institutional selling pressure stabilize, and AI memory demand remains unrefuted, money will quickly come back to grab shares. This rebound is very strong and also the easiest to misjudge. It shows that the AI hardware logic is still alive, but it does not mean the risks have disappeared. A 22% rise in ten days is partly fundamental repair and partly short covering and FOMO chasing. The faster it rises, the more you need to watch if earnings can keep up. I think Korean stocks now are like a car that has just re-accelerated after an emergency brake. The engine is not broken, but everyone in the car is very emotional, so it will still sway a bit on a curve. #芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22% #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 SanDisk's latest investor day landed, with the market focus entirely on the company's mid-to-long-term business blueprint. The better-than-expected profit guidance directly drove the stock price to surge significantly, while also leaving considerable room for market divergence.
The company set clear targets for fiscal years 2028-2030: revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, a non-GAAP gross margin target of about 80%, and an adjusted free cash flow margin aiming at 50%; after completing capacity investments, the plan is to return all surplus cash to shareholders. The core logic supporting this high-profit target is the AI inference wave. Management predicts that by 2030, the enterprise flash market size could reach 1.2 zettabytes, with scenarios like KV caching driving continuous expansion of large-capacity, high-performance NAND demand.
To smooth out the inherent cyclical fluctuations in the storage industry, SanDisk is vigorously promoting the long-term supply agreement NBM model, locking in orders from leading cloud providers. The plan is that by 2028, two-thirds of bit shipments will be covered by long-term contracts, thereby stabilizing revenue and profit certainty; on the technology side, advancing BiCS series iterations and HBF high-bandwidth flash memory R&D to capture the incremental AI storage market.
The positive narrative is already fully priced in, but risks are also clear. The 80% gross margin target is at an extremely high industry level and its realization heavily depends on sustained strong AI computing demand and stable long-term contract orders. If cloud providers cut capital expenditures or competitors like SK Hynix massively expand production causing oversupply, the high-profit expectations risk falling short.
In terms of market sentiment, short-term enthusiasm has been ignited by the guidance, but subsequent stock price gains are unlikely to rely solely on the story. Whether the valuation can hold depends on whether upcoming quarterly reports can gradually validate the long-term blueprint. The sector's big logic is positive, but volatility will clearly amplify at high levels. $BTC $ETH $SNDK In this 30-year US Treasury auction, buyers have started to demand higher prices.📉
$25 billion was sold smoothly, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.39 is not bad, with a 0.4 basis point tail hardly indicating a crash.
What’s truly worth watching is the winning yield of 5.216%—the highest since 2001.
The market isn’t unwilling to buy US Treasuries; rather, it’s willing to buy, provided the US offers higher interest rates.
The underlying issues remain the same: fiscal deficit, US debt supply, inflation risk, and uncertainty in long-term interest rates.
So even if the Fed cuts rates in the future, it might only lower short-term rates first, and the 30-year yield may not follow. The long end staying elevated continuously puts pressure on the valuation of risk assets.⚠️
What to watch next is whether auctions continue to show larger tails and whether the proportion of primary dealers forced to absorb the supply keeps rising.
One occurrence is a warning; continuous deterioration is the real signal.$OKB 我觉得大行情要来了。大行情来自多重趋势共振，可拆为三幕： 第一幕：$BTC率先启动。政策宽松时机构优先配置，因其认知度最高、流动性最强，是传统资金最易理解的门户。 第二幕：$ETH接棒。当焦点转向链上价值，稳定币、RWA、AI Agent交易均依赖其基础设施，金融活动上链将重估$ETH。 第三幕：生态资产如$OKB，机会在真实需求——用户增长、应用扩张、Gas消耗，而非稀缺叙事。 紧盯数据：$BTC看ETF资金、机构配置、宏观流动性；$ETH看稳定币规模、RWA进展、链上活跃度；$OKB看X Layer生态、用户量、应用收入。风险上，$BTC惧宏观收紧，$ETH需价值反馈，$OKB防预期透支。 理想情形：政策引资金，AI创需求，稳定币成基建——$BTC吸金，$ETH承载金融，生态资产争执行效率。大周期非单一热点，政策、技术、资本共振，才能从炒作走向重估，高度由数据定。 三阶段逻辑你认可吗？$BTC、$ETH、$OKB如何配？还是黑马在新赛道？欢迎各位老师一起交流。#高盛收购Neos，加密ETF转向收益竞争 #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ 转发！The dramatic fluctuations in South Korean memory stocks are essentially a tragicomedy directed by leverage.
The crash in July seemed shocking, with the KOSPI experiencing its largest monthly drop since the financial crisis. But beneath the surface, the underlying narrative of AI remains intact. HBM is in short supply, and major capital expenditures have not receded. What truly collapsed was the fragile confidence built up by leverage. Margin tightening was like toppling the first domino, triggering forced liquidations that swept away overly greedy chips, and circuit breakers became the norm during those days.
However, market memory is short. In just over ten trading days, the same batch of funds returned, and the index rebounded more than 20% in a retaliatory move. Samsung and SK Hynix led the gains, Micron surged overnight, and South Korea immediately followed suit. This familiar rhythm makes one feel as if they have returned to the big A market.
But the problem is, a rebound does not equal a reversal. The scale of foreign capital withdrawal from Korean stocks this year is staggering, and occasional inflows are just a drop in the bucket. The current rally is mainly driven by sentiment repair and oversold rebound rather than a fundamental revaluation. Once high-volume stagnation occurs at elevated levels, those chasing highs could easily become the next trapped holders.
#韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨 The chart for xSKHY/USDT shows consolidation around $163.91 (-1.70%) following a rebound from the $XSKHY $162.80 low. Price action trades just under moving average resistance (MA5: $164.12, MA10: $163.98, MA20: $164.20), while MACD (+0.11) indicates mild positive momentum attempting to build. Reclaiming $164.20 enables buyers to target $166.17 or higher. A failure to hold above $163.90 risks a retest of $162.80 and $151.19. Short-term trading range: $162.80–$164.20.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #OKX.ai $SNDK missed out on approximately $1.2 million in potential profits, as a major storage whale liquidated SKHX and SNDK long positions before flipping to a 10x short on SNDK
SK Hynix and SanDisk have both risen synchronously from last night to this morning. A whale address (0x0c4...) gradually liquidated 2,908.3 SKHX and 2,323.9 SNDK long positions one day ago, realizing actual profits of about $186,000. Based on this morning's peak prices, if the positions had been held, the combined profits from these two trades could have reached approximately $1.385 million, about $1.2 million more than the realized gains, missing out on profits roughly 6.5 times the amount already secured. SKHX was liquidated at an average price of $1,022.9, with actual profits around $17,000; it peaked at $1,207.4 this morning, missing out on about $537,000. SNDK was liquidated at an average price of $1,278, with actual profits around $169,000; it peaked at $1,563.3 this morning, missing out on about $663,000. The total liquidation amount for both positions was approximately $5.945 million. After liquidation, SKHX and SNDK rose about 18.0% and 22.3% respectively above their selling average prices. The whale has not yet recovered the long positions and has now flipped to a 10x isolated margin short of 2,524.2 SNDK, with a position value of about $3.902 million, an average entry price of $1,553.2, unrealized profit of about $18,000, and a liquidation price of $1,936. $SNDK #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
The recent rally in the storage sector is indeed not just pure speculation.
✔ AI servers continue to drive demand for high-bandwidth memory, server memory, and enterprise-grade SSDs, with manufacturers shifting more capacity to higher-margin products, causing ordinary storage supply to remain tight.
✔ Hynix and Micron's earnings are growing rapidly, and SanDisk has set very aggressive long-term profit targets at its investor day, prompting capital to revalue the entire storage sector.
However, although storage prices are still rising, the pace has clearly slowed compared to Q1. In the medium term, high-bandwidth memory and server memory remain strong, but by the second half of 2027, flash memory may gradually loosen as new capacity is released, and the sector will no longer see indiscriminate gains.
I shorted SanDisk at 1542, mainly betting on a pullback after a big rally. Currently, SanDisk's short-term trend is still strong, closing at 1528 during regular trading hours and then returning near 1570 after hours, with significantly increased volume. So this short position can only be treated as short-term for now, and adding to the position blindly is not advised.
✔ 1580–1600 is a key resistance zone
✔ Only breaking below 1520 will the short position truly take control
✔ On the downside, first watch 1480, then around 1450
✔ If volume increases and it holds above 1600–1610, I will cut losses immediately and stop holding the position
My judgment is that the medium-term trend in the storage industry is not over yet, but SanDisk's single-day gain is too large, and a short-term correction is indeed needed. The most important thing now is not to guess the top but to guard the invalidation level and wait for price confirmation. The news of API interface price adjustments reaching up to 500% has materialized, with AI inference computing power shifting from continuous subsidies to cost pass-through, and the market's valuation framework for underlying computing power assets is being rewritten.
Public reports show that various model services face price increases ranging from 100% to 500%, and the surge in computing power terminal prices quickly transmits to the R&D bills of mid- and downstream applications.
The central bank has conducted a 1 trillion yuan buyout-style reverse repo to release medium-term liquidity, but the easing of macro funds is difficult to offset the rigid rise in marginal hardware costs such as chips and electricity.
This round of price adjustments directly pushes the inflation pressure on hardware to the application layer, and the computing power inflation borne by enterprises directly squeezes the profit margins of intermediate products relying on a single model.
If within two weeks after the price increase takes effect, the core call volume drops less than 15%, and cloud service providers gradually reduce free quotas, targets like $CL that control self-developed computing power resources will establish stronger premium capabilities; conversely, if peers continue heavy subsidies, premium expectations will quickly decline.
If the price increase causes developers to massively migrate to competing products, the sharp drop in actual call volume will drag down revenue and depress procurement demand in the industry chain, and the preference expansion of related computing power infrastructure will also stop when call data deteriorates.
The market's judgment on computing power entering a systemic inflation cycle hinges on whether downstream can absorb the real costs. Once subsequent call volume declines exceed the tolerance threshold, the entire pricing revaluation logic will be falsified.
The most important variable to observe in the next 7 days is the actual retention rate of mainstream model call volumes after the specific price adjustment takes effect on August 17.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% #高盛收购Neos，加密ETF转向收益竞争$APR I'll share my own perspective, everyone feel free to listen. Open to discussion.
The day before yesterday, the market maker pumped over 110%, a beneficial start. The hype rose, which is equivalent to the market maker fronting funds for retail investors.
Starting yesterday, there was a double kill of bulls and bears: the opening was pumped to 0.63, then smashed down to 0.42, then pulled back to 0.58. He killed three waves of people—two waves chasing the rise and killing the fall, and another wave was short-term heavy leverage positions.
Today, the tactic changed, with sideways trading occupying 80% of the time. I've been thinking about what the market maker is waiting for during this sideways movement. This doesn't look like a shakeout tactic. It's deliberately holding at a high level waiting for people to get on board. Then the midday double kill of bulls and bears played out.
Tomorrow, I speculate there's a high probability it will break a new high and then rise again. There are three reasons: First, on the big trend weekly K-line level, it has already broken through the super trend. The probability of a pullback to test the new high is very high. Second, the fee has been maintained well, indicating a relatively balanced bull-bear ratio. With balance, the market maker can't make much profit; either they smash the market to reduce hype and grab some small profits to break the path, or continue pumping until the bull-bear ratio becomes unbalanced and then kill another wave. I lean towards a pump. Third, traditionally, the market maker's method of unloading is to first sell part, then sideways wait for the bears to get on board, then pump again to reduce the cost of the pump. Looking at the K-lines these two days, the smash wasn't very deep and was quickly pulled up after smashing. This shows the market maker first planted an idea for retail investors that it's either not unloading or there will be large fluctuations. So when they really unload, with the previous groundwork, there will be a continuous stream of bulls taking over... like LAB's tactic.Why did BTC and ETH follow two different logics even though the Federal Reserve held steady?
On July 29, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.5%–3.75%. More notably, three members expressed a desire to raise rates by 25 basis points. For the crypto market, this signal is not easy: liquidity did not immediately shift to easing, and inflationary pressures have not completely left the stage.
But under the same macro environment, the impact on $BTC and $ETH is not exactly the same. BTC increasingly resembles an asset that hedges long-term monetary uncertainty; as long as the market worries about fiscal issues, inflation, or fiat purchasing power, it has its own narrative space. ETH, on the other hand, is more like a productive asset that generates on-chain yields while bearing technical and ecosystem risks. The higher the interest rates, the more institutions compare ETH staking yields against government bond returns.
So when observing these two assets now, the question is not just "when will the Fed cut rates?" For BTC, it’s about whether capital continues to treat it as a cross-cycle reserve; for ETH, it’s about whether on-chain yields, stablecoins, and DeFi activity can cover holding risks. The former sells scarcity, the latter sells network cash flow.
This also explains why sometimes when macro headwinds emerge, BTC is more resilient than ETH; but once market trading liquidity expands, ETH may show stronger elasticity. They are two asset models within the same crypto market.
$BTC answers the question "Where should money be stored?" while $ETH answers "What can money do on-chain?".$ETH $BTC $ETH 聊聊一个反常现象：CPI、PPI都降温了，BTC、ETH为什么不涨？ 这两天最反常的不是跌，是利好都端上来了，盘面还是一副没睡醒的样子。 CPI同比从3.5%回到3.4%，核心CPI降到2.5%；PPI更低于预期，环比直接是0。 按正常剧本，通胀降温、加息压力缓和，风险资产至少该给点反应。 但现在呢？ BTC日内最高摸到63,998，现价又回到63,450附近；ETH高点1899.48，现价1886。 冲一下，马上就没下文。 这说明现在的问题不在宏观。 宏观只是把"继续加息"的压力暂时拿掉了，但没有替币圈带来新的主动买盘。美股AI、存储链在吃风险偏好，BTC和ETH却连利好都接不住，盘面交易的是"有人趁反弹离场"，不是"资金开始抢筹"。 所以我不会因为一份PPI就喊反转。 接下来只看两个验证： BTC能不能有效站回64,000，而不是冲一下又掉； ETH能不能收回1,900，并且回踩不破。 站不回去，CPI、PPI的利好最多只是让行情喘口气。 真正难受的盘，从来不是利空砸下来，而是利好来了，你手里的币还是不肯涨。 #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分SOL is currently around 75.8u, basically unchanged throughout the day, hovering just below the moving average. Here's the conclusion first: I won't chase at this position, mainly watching, and won't add to my holdings even if I have some.
This is no longer just a sideways issue; it's a problem of emotions and capital contradicting each other. The sentiment is really warm: KOLs are all bullish all day, social sentiment scores above 7.3, and on the news front, there are positive developments like payments and tokenized trading landing, plus the technical MACD is also supporting the bulls, making it look like a breakout is imminent.
But don't rush, here’s the key point—the real money is moving in the opposite direction. Spot large orders have a net outflow of 200,000u over 3 hours, with 12 consecutive candlesticks all negative, all selling out; on the futures side, active buying accounts for only 30%, the active long-short ratio is suppressed to 0.45, and selling pressure is clearly outweighing buying. To translate: many are verbally bullish, but few are putting money down. Even leverage is retreating, margin lending has dropped nearly half in 12 hours, and long positions have slightly decreased.
The position is also awkward. Resistance is at 77.5-78 from last week, and decent support is only near 74.5, so it’s stuck in the middle—a frustrating zone with no volume on the rise and some support on the fall. Sentiment remains, but the strength to take over is clearly insufficient. Charging in now just props up those who bought at higher levels earlier, and the cost-benefit ratio is really mediocre.
My approach is one word: wait. Either wait for a pullback near 74.5 with spot large orders turning positive again before considering a dip buy, or wait for a volume breakout and a stable hold above 78 before thinking about chasing. If you can’t catch the last breath of profit, just let it go. SOL’s fundamentals in this round aren’t bad, but until the data confirms, I’d rather be cautious than be the one left holding the bag.
#sol $SOL The U.S. stock market just triggered a massive short squeeze—and crypto followed.
Cooling jobless claims and PPI strengthened rate-cut hopes, sending Treasury yields lower and forcing heavily shorted tech and storage names into aggressive covering.
The move then spilled into crypto:
$BTC and $ETH found support, with ETH showing stronger resilience from ETF flows.
Stock-linked tokens like $xSNDK and $xSPCX moved sharply higher, while small-cap memes mostly saw short-lived speculative pumps.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets Core drivers of the decline: triple pressure resonance
① Whale sell-off triggers selling pressure (maximum pressure)
On-chain data shows that large holders known as "whales" have reduced their Bitcoin holdings over the past week, while the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges has increased. This capital flow usually signals a price drop.
② Buying demand completely exhausted, spot trading hits six-year low
Daily spot Bitcoin trading volume has dropped to $1.19 billion, the lowest level since 2019. Both CPI and PPI cooling down should be positive, but BTC "hovering around 63000" without rising — "what the market lacks is not good news, but new money willing to enter." Rekt Capital issues a core warning: Bitcoin's buying momentum in August has significantly weakened, and the key support at the 200-week moving average is wavering.
③ Fed internal divisions and macro uncertainty
Cleveland Fed President Harker publicly maintains a hawkish stance, still supporting further rate hikes. CME interest rate futures show a 78% probability of rates remaining unchanged in September, but the New York Fed announced a pause in reserve management Treasury purchases, tightening short-term market marginal liquidity. US-Iran negotiations have stalled, raising risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 $BTC $ETH $SOL The direction in August is a high-probability event because both macro factors (Federal Reserve) and capital factors (ETF) catalysts are in place, and technically it has reached a critical decision point. However, the specific direction depends on the macro data and ETF flows released in August:
If ETF outflows restart + macro data is hot → break below 60K, test 57,717, in extreme cases, a dip to 50,000–55,000 within the month or in September
If ETF inflows accelerate + Federal Reserve turns dovish → rise above 66,700, rebound to 70K–72K
If both remain unclear → continue oscillating between 60K–66K, postponing the directional decision to the September Federal Reserve meeting
Regarding "whether it can reach around 50,000 this year": based on a 63% probability from prediction markets, bearish views from Bloomberg analysts, and continuous ETF outflows, the probability of seeing 50,000–55,000 within the year is real and not low. But it is important to distinguish between a "needle test" and "stabilizing at 50,000"—the former is clearly more likely than the latter. Even if it drops to 50,000, most institutions (JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bernstein) still believe it will rebound to the 100,000–150,000 range by year-end; 50,000 is more likely a "golden pit" rather than a "new platform."
⚠️ Must remind: all the above analysis is scenario-based on currently observable data, not a certainty prediction. Bitcoin's daily volatility of 5%–10% is normal; leverage positions must manage risk carefully. The 63% probability from prediction markets also means there is a 37% chance it will not reach 50,000 within the year.
The three signals to watch most closely now: weekly ETF capital flow data, macro data released in August, and Bitcoin's reaction to the 60,000 USD and 57,717 lows. If any one of these shows a clear signal, the direction will emerge.
Are crypto friends patient enough to wait?
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 ETF capital flow reverses: BTC is bleeding, ETH/SOL takes over
$BTC 63,400–63,900 fluctuates, flat after CPI, stock-based competition.
ETF data for August 12:
🔴 BTC Spot ETF: Net outflow of 61.1 million (FBTC -46.8 million / IBIT -14.3 million)
🟢 ETH spot ETF: net inflow of 7.4 million
🟢 SOL Spot ETF: Net inflow ~9 million
The previous day's structure reversed directly—previously BTC inflows and ETH outflows, now the opposite.
Spot Side:
$BTC Net outflow pressure continues
$ETH Short-term improvement but still cautious
$SOL ETFs have relatively stabilized the market
BNB, DOGE, and $LINK continued their capital-attracting effect the previous day, but today's momentum weakened
$TRX and other highly liquid assets still saw sporadic inflows
Funding Channels:
BTC bleeding → ETH/SOL relay → a few highly liquid counterfeit rotations
There are still insufficient signs of comprehensive rollout to small- and mid-cap counterparts.
Judgment:
Institutions fine-tuning positions + limited rotation of existing assets is not a signal to start a trend.
Two key points to consider:
$BTC Can it rise above 64,500 with increased volume?
$ETH Can this wave of ETF inflows continue and drive increased trading volume?
The overall market remains sideways, with funds likely moving back and forth between mainstream and a few highly liquid stocks, making it immature for a full launch of counterfeits.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
#CLARITY延期, the SEC plans to advance regulatory rule supplementation
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets SanDisk $SNDK took off 30% in 4 days, and on the investor day itself, it surged 15%, restoring confidence among crypto friends.
But I have to say: the investor day is over, everyone should take profits quickly. #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点
1. The recent gains were directly catalyzed by four words: Investor Day. Yesterday, SanDisk played three cards, and the market went into a frenzy: long-term target gross margin 80%, operating profit margin 75%; half of next year's capacity and two-thirds of the following year's capacity are already booked, locking in $93.9 billion in revenue; plus $15.5 billion in stock buybacks.
2. Of course, this is also inseparable from the sector's heat. Samsung, Hynix, Nvidia... the entire storage sector is flying, and SanDisk is one of the strongest performers.
3. After all, SanDisk's fundamentals are truly explosive, with very solid long-term logic.
In the past, storage stocks depended on spot prices, but now SanDisk has transformed itself into a company with guaranteed minimums through long-term contracts, with $93.9 billion minimum revenue ≈ the basic business for the next four to five years. This is real evolution, not just empty promises.
4. So if all this is good news, why am I telling everyone to run?
Because the price has risen too high! Expectations are also overextended. From February last year to now, it has risen 28 times in 15 months. The current price already factors in the performance of the next two years; what good news can come next?
Look at Micron $MU, Q2 earnings were also explosive, but because expectations were too hot, it still fell 8% after hours. SanDisk is clearly lagging behind now, with limited upside but high risk of pullback. I suggest everyone take profits first.BTC vs ETH: An underestimated liquidity truth
Market cap: BTC 1.27 trillion vs ETH 228.4 billion, a 5.6-fold difference
Turnover: BTC 21.99 billion vs ETH 7.02 billion, only shrinking to 3.1 times
This gap is even more interesting than the rankings.
BTC is becoming more and more like a "ballast for allocation markets"—buyers don't necessarily change positions every day; when rising slowly, it acts like an asset chart; when rising quickly, it acts like a gategate for risk sentiment. Led by ETFs, macro hedges, and dollar liquidity.
ETH's market cap is slightly smaller, but its turnover is even stronger.
With DeFi, L2, staking yields, and the expectation of counterfeit rotation all hanging on it, both positive and negative news are amplified by trading volume.
So:
Incremental entry is in charge: BTC is responsible for "opening the door," while ETH is responsible for "making volatility thicker."
ETH's contradictions:
Its market cap is not large enough, so its stability is naturally weaker than BTC;
A higher proportion of tradeable assets proves it is not a marginal asset.
Trend confirmation: ETH is more likely to chase and accelerate rally;
With the US dollar rebound and rising US Treasury yields, it is also more likely to be hit first by the deep pit.
High-beta tokens like SOL will spill over with ETH sentiment, but the pricing anchor first depends on whether ETH can hold the funds.
The current core issue is not that "ETH is not cheap," but whether the market is dominated by allocation funds or trading capital.
The former dominates → BTC continues to absorb the certainty premium;
The latter returns to ETH → elasticity will come from trading activity.
#7月CPI平稳落地, expectations for a rate hike in September cooled
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets $LAB unlocks 16.23 million tokens today (August 14), accounting for about 1.6% of the total supply; the price has dropped significantly.
Key points of today's unlock
- Quantity and proportion: 16.23 million tokens unlocked, about 1.6% of total supply
- Unlock subject: investor tokens, part of the monthly unlock schedule
- Monthly rhythm: from August 14 to December 14, 16.23 million tokens will be unlocked each month
- Price performance: as of today, a 24-hour decline of about 19.40%, trading price around $0.09
- Intraday trend: earlier today, it dropped more than 10%
- Unlock scale vs. market cap: based on current market cap estimates, this unlock accounts for about 5.0%
- Subsequent supply pressure: equal-scale unlocks will continue monthly for the next several months, maintaining supply pressure
Why is the market so sensitive?
- Token concentration: the top 100 wallets control about 99.86% of the supply, a few large addresses can significantly impact the market
- Manipulation and trust risks: accusations exist that insiders control over 95% of circulating supply, with issues of OTC trades and centralized exchange manipulation
- History of term changes: previously accused of unilaterally modifying investor lock-up terms, damaging trust
- Fragile liquidity: insufficient depth, large sell pressure can trigger severe volatility
- Historical volatility: in June, it once plunged about 77% within two hours
- Lessons learned: $BEAT once experienced rapid liquidity depletion due to loss of confidence
What should holders do?
- Control positions and leverage: under ongoing unlocks and concentrated holdings, prioritize reducing exposure and leverage to avoid liquidity shocks amplifying losses
- Monitor on-chain flows: focus on large address movements after unlocks, be alert to concentrated sell signals
- Combine fundamentals: the platform has generated some trading volume and protocol revenue; if growth can offset sell pressure, it may bring repair opportunities; but continuous verification of $LAB is needed [On-Chain Indicator Deduction: BTC Classic "Triple Line Cross" Endgame Reenactment]
From BTC's history, the positional relationship among STH Realized Price (Short-Term Holder Cost), LTH Realized Price (Long-Term Holder Cost), and the Network Realized Price (Actual Cost) has always been the most hardcore on-chain signal for qualitatively identifying cycle bottoms.
Reviewing the three deep bear bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022, the market followed a completely consistent liquidation path:
1. The coin price continuously plunged deeply, forcing short-term chasing holders to cut losses and exit, accelerating the decline of the STH cost line;
2. Capitulation positions gradually transferred to long-term funds, with the LTH cost line slowly rising;
3. Ultimately, the three lines formed an extreme convergence and completed a death cross/sticky cross (STH falling below LTH/network cost), marking the complete turnover of high-level chips and the official establishment of the cycle's iron bottom.
Looking ahead to 2026, although the three cost lines are rapidly approaching, the final death cross convergence has not yet formed. The underlying logic of on-chain competition has never changed—only by forcing short-term holders to experience thorough unrealized loss capitulation and turnover can the long-term bottom structure be truly solidified.
Combining past cycle patterns, the three lines will most likely reenact the historical trend to complete the final cross. Enduring the silence and focusing on the final bottoming signal at the completion of the cross is often the starting point for the buildup of a new bull market. PPI below expectations is short-term positive but don't expect a sharp rise
July PPI rose 0% month-on-month (expected 0.2%) and core PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month (expected 0.3%), both below expectations. Production-side inflation has not accelerated, consistent with the narrative of cooling CPI.
For the Federal Reserve: further reduces the need for short-term rate hikes. But note, the PPI fell from -0.3% in June back to 0%, not a full deflation, just a mild recovery. Core PPI remained flat, indicating that structural pressure after excluding energy and food products has not worsened, but it also cannot be said to have cooled significantly.
For the crypto market:
Short-term positive but limited strength—CPI has already priced in expectations of "inflation easing," while PPI is just a follow-up confirmation, not a surprise.
$BTC: Around 63,400, there was already a waiting direction. PPI falling short of expectations gives bulls some confidence, but the resistance zone between 64,000 and 64,500 won't be easily broken just because of this figure. If US stocks open higher tonight, BTC may use the momentum to reach 64,000, but if volume is insufficient, it will still pull back.
$ETH: Follow the lead. 1900 remains a key threshold, and the PPI boost will at most allow it to fluctuate a bit longer in the 1880-1920 range. For ETH to strengthen independently, it needs to see capital flow back into the DeFi/L2 ecosystem, rather than relying on macro data handouts.
Key reminder: Don't rush in just because you see "below expectations." The market has now become numb to "cooling inflation." The real way BTC breaks through 64,500 is either a series of large inflows from ETFs or dovish Federal Reserve officials. PPI only makes bears hesitant to sell for now, but it doesn't mean bulls have momentum to rally.
Tonight, let's look at the risk appetite transmission after the US stock market opens. If the US market doesn't buy in, BTC will still bottom out between 63,000 and 63,500.
Strategy: Short-term bullish but not overwhelmed. Reduce positions if resistance near 64,000, and set strict stop-loss if it falls below 63,000. If you have no positions, wait for a clear direction; don't chase gains after the data.
$BTC $ETH
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#CLARITY延期, the SEC plans to advance regulatory rule supplementation
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets I feel a major market move is coming. The big move comes from multiple trend resonances and can be divided into three acts:
Act One: $BTC leads the way. During easing policies, institutions prioritize allocation to it because it has the highest recognition and strongest liquidity, making it the easiest gateway for traditional capital to understand.
Act Two: $ETH takes over. When the focus shifts to on-chain value, stablecoins, RWA, and AI Agent trading all rely on its infrastructure. The financial activities moving on-chain will revalue $ETH.
Act Three: Ecosystem assets like $OKB, where the opportunity lies in real demand—user growth, application expansion, and Gas consumption—rather than scarcity narratives.
Keep a close eye on the data: For $BTC, watch ETF funds, institutional allocation, and macro liquidity; for $ETH, monitor stablecoin scale, RWA progress, and on-chain activity; for $OKB, observe the X Layer ecosystem, user base, and application revenue. On the risk side, $BTC fears macro tightening, $ETH needs value feedback, and $OKB guards against expectation overreach.
The ideal scenario: policies attract capital, AI creates demand, stablecoins become infrastructure—$BTC draws in funds, $ETH carries finance, and ecosystem assets compete on execution efficiency. The big cycle is not a single hotspot; policy, technology, and capital must resonate together to move from hype to revaluation, with levels determined highly by data.
Do you agree with this three-stage logic? How would you allocate $BTC, $ETH, and $OKB? Or is the dark horse on a new track? Welcome all experts to discuss together. #高盛收购Neos，加密ETF转向收益竞争 #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ On October 11, 2025, the crypto world faced the most brutal deleveraging in history: Bitcoin plunged 13.5% in a single day, 1.6 million people were liquidated, and $19.1 billion evaporated instantly.
In the previous year, the market was artificially pushed to $126,000 by ETF funds, Trump's endorsements, and blind faith in the "four-year cycle," but what sustained the bull market was not ecosystem growth, but a layered chain of exploitation—VC coins trapped retail investors with a 5% circulation rate, presidential coins surged 400x in three days then crashed 95%, and a couple running an exchange precisely dumped coins using insider information. When the last person to take the risk entered, the fireworks ended, leaving only a mess behind.
Now BTC is bottoming around $60,000, which is exactly the premise for a restart: without a full crash, old players won’t exit; without clearing leverage, new funds won’t enter. In the past six months, 2.4 million bitcoins have settled in the $61,000 to $65,000 range, accounting for 12% of circulating supply—chips have shifted from speculators to steadfast holders.
Although market confidence has been shattered, fear itself is creating opportunities. This crash has cleansed high FDV bubbles, driven away speculative presidents, and shattered cycle superstitions, forcing the crypto world to return from "storytelling" to "accounting."
To restart, you must reset to zero. It’s harsh, but also fair.
$BTC Any BTC bought in 2025 would be at a loss if held until now. Therefore, as long as the 2025 chips decrease, except for wallet transfers, the rest are sell-offs at a loss.
As of today, there are still 4.77 million BTC from 2025, down 41.5% from the peak in December last year.
The slope of the downward trend clearly has two segments: a rapid decline before February, and a slowdown after February, but still maintaining a certain slope.
This group is probably the largest supply side in the current market.
Comparing data from 2024, 2023, and 2022, it’s not hard to see that these chips with unrealized gains have basically passed the steep phase of the decline slope.
Moreover, the longer the time, the smaller the slope. From the chart, the slope of the curve after February almost became a straight line.
Even if the price falls further, the change in the number of these chips is not obvious. In other words, those who needed to turnover have done so, and the rest remain inactive.
From the past two bear markets, at the 2022 bear bottom, the high-position chips from 2021 dropped by 51%; at the 2018 bear bottom, the high-position chips from 2017 dropped by 62%;
If we simply extrapolate, I personally think the bottom of this bear market will be at most 50-60% (currently 41%), not yet considering BTC bought by 2025 ETFs and MicroStrategy, most of which are locked and inactive.Still drawing lines? Wake up.
The only thing that can kick up the price in one go is never on the candlestick.
Washington slams the table, the Fed changes its tone, and the Middle East blows up oil pipelines—any one of these three works better than drawing a hundred golden crosses.
The three true giants of the crypto world:
1. CPI — The Fed's Tightening Spell — Did July Data Drop? Don't get too happy too soon. "Not that bad" doesn't mean "it got better"; the Fed has to really spend money to raise prices. Rushing in now is like dancing in a minefield.
2. SEC — The "Black Wallet" Dilemma in the Crypto Circle CLARITY has been pushed back into September. In the US, the crypto world remains largely unknown to this day. The SEC sues one today, fines that tomorrow—do institutions dare to make a big move? If big money doesn't move, coin prices become a zero-sum game of stock competition.
3. Hormuz — The Black Swan Nest The US-Iran talks collapsed, the strait was sealed, and oil prices soared. Oil prices → inflation→ rate hikes→ liquidity drainage→ a waterfall in the crypto world. If it really comes to a fight, all your support and resistance levels are just paper.
I'm not looking at the line now, but looking at these signals:
$BTC: Will institutions buy?
$ETH: Will ecosystem funds recover?
$SOL: Has the market gone crazy?
$HYPE: Has the gambler entered yet?
$OKB: Can the bear market soy sauce still hold up?
The next major market move will come from news headlines, not technical indicators.
Look at the world more, and less at screens. Living capital is more important than anything else.
Betting on one: CPI, SEC, Middle East—who will explode first? 👇
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, pressure from the US and Iran escalates
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets Using "revenue" to value a coin, I first take a step back with the calculator. Bitcoin miner revenue does not equal cash flow to coin holders; the same goes for Ethereum. More fees only translate to tokens if they are burned or locked as settlement demand.
In Q1, Ethereum base layer transactions reached about 200.4 million, a quarterly record, but low-fee scaling means transaction count, fees, and burns no longer move in sync. It's lively, but the ledger won't applaud automatically.
My method isn't sophisticated; it's a bit like watching fireworks with a calculator. I monitor seven-day fees, base fee burn volume, and net issuance—these three must at least explain each other.
If funding rates spike first, who cleans up after this party?
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be aware of risks. #$ETH #CPI and PPI Cooling Down Simultaneously, Interest Rate Hike Divergence Widens
Current inflation is only slowing down; core CPI at 2.5% remains above the 2% target. Hawkish Federal Reserve officials have not abandoned the rate hike stance. The market is currently overbetting on a pause in rate hikes in September. If the central bank's annual meeting speech turns hawkish, rate hike expectations will quickly rebound, directly hitting three types of assets.
On-chain BTC miners and whales continue transferring to exchanges to sell, and this selling pressure has not disappeared. Previously, BTC spot ETFs experienced a single-day net outflow of funds, with insufficient buying momentum. Heavy selling pressure above 64,000 makes it difficult to break previous highs, likely leading to a pullback after positive news is fully priced in.
Gold is currently at a high level, but long-term supply pressure from U.S. Treasuries remains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still has potential to rise to 4.8%, which will continue to suppress gold's gains, likely causing short-term volatility and weakness.
In terms of operations, avoid opening long positions. Light short positions can be tried if BTC rebounds above 63,800. For gold, short positions can be set above 4,370 with strict position control to avoid sudden volatility caused by Federal Reserve officials' speeches.
$BTC $ETH $XAU Today, as soon as Mazi Ge spoke, $SPCX shot straight to the skies.
It surged to a high of 149.6 and closed at 146.15, up 9.65%. From the low, it has risen about 40%.
And now it's about to drop below 140 again.
My strategy was selling short positions too early; looking back now, it really was a slap on the thigh.
What did Musk say at the all-hands meeting?
AI revenue will surpass all other SpaceX businesses next month
AI computing power will reach 10 gigawatts by the end of next year
His estimate: In five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX's value
What does this mean? SpaceX's valuation logic has been overturned—from an aerospace company to a space AI computing power company. The valuation logic has changed, so the prices the market offers naturally differ.
But there's one thing to mention:
Capital expenditure in the second quarter was 18.37 billion yuan, of which 15.8 billion was invested in AI infrastructure, with revenue of only 7.8 billion yuan. The rate of burning money is 2.35 times the income.
The bigger the pie, the more money burns out.
The storage sector also surged: SK Hynix rose over 9%, SanDisk rose 5.76%, and Micron rose nearly 5%.
Expanding computing power requires chips, storage, and optical communications—the entire industry chain is following suit.
SanDisk also has an Investor Day today, and the market is waiting for management to present a roadmap for AI storage.
Summary: The entire AI infrastructure line—from chips to storage to computing power—is being repriced.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#海力士推进NAND扩产, storage supply expectations are rising
$SNDK $SKHYNIX
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets Bitcoin performed relatively weakly last night, while the US stock market mostly rose, but Bitcoin directly plunged. The short position at 64K yesterday was not reached; it only got to 63.9K before dropping.
Don't pursue perfection too much in trading; as long as you are roughly correct within a certain range, it's fine. Just like building a position at the bottom—you can't catch the absolute lowest point, so you need to build your position in batches within the bottom area.
If you think Bitcoin is likely to fall significantly, I still suggest holding a light position and waiting for the drop. Why not just clear your position? Can you hold on if there is a big rebound? Would you end up FOMO chasing the high? 🤣
Nothing is absolute; acknowledge your limitations and do things that are roughly correct!如果一觉醒来看到合约榜上有人涨了48%，有人跌了18%，你会先点开哪一边？ 同一根K线里，多空差了66个点，这种撕裂感比单边行情更让人清醒。今天最可怕的不是踏空，而是在情绪最热的时刻站错了队。 我习惯把这种日子当成风险管理课的随堂测验，不急着找机会，先看自己的仓位能不能扛住波动。 先记录几个关键信号，今天永续涨幅榜前排非常有意思，EDEN 以48%的涨幅断层领跑，成交额4875万，比第二名的AEON多了近3000万。这种量价关系说明资金在某个价格区间内达成了共识，但注意，领跑者与第二名拉开28个点的距离，恰恰意味着短期追高的容错率极低。如果想参与，拼的是速度和止损纪律，而不是信仰。 跌幅榜同样值得看，LAB跌了18%，APR成交额高达4.5亿却跌了5.6%，这种放量下跌通常说明有资金在借流动性出货。新上市的几个合约品种几乎全线小幅走低，这提醒了我一件事，新币不代表新机会，它可能只是新风险。 从盘面传导到情绪层面，我能感受到今天的市场处于一种高敏感状态，风险偏好两极分化，资金没有明确主线，更像是各自为战。这种时候，指数涨跌未必反映真实赚钱效应。 如果非要给今天定个调，我的理解是，市场正在🚨 CPI cooled. PPI cooled. Rate-cut hopes are rising… so why does crypto look half-asleep? 👀
You’d expect $BTC and $ETH to be celebrating.
But they’re barely reacting.
Here’s the part traders often forget: markets move on expectations, not headlines.
$BTC is hovering around $63,552, with $64K still proving difficult to break.
$ETH is around $1,886, repeatedly knocking on $1,900 without a convincing breakout.
So what’s going on?
A lot of traders may have positioned for the “good inflation news” before the numbers even landed.
When the data finally arrived, much of the bullish expectation may have already been priced in.
And with roughly $140M in options expiring tonight, there’s another reason for the market to stay cautious.
So I’m not chasing the headline.
I’m watching price, volume, and confirmation.
Because sometimes the most bullish news…
is already priced in. 📊
Personal market view, not financial advice.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #DailyOrbit
#DailyOrbit 👀 Brothers, the two short positions in hand have finally turned green these past two days!
But honestly, this is the most dangerous time—not because we're afraid of being wrong about the direction, but because we're afraid of getting carried away. Today, I won't talk about the market, but about mindset, which is more important than candlesticks.
---
When unrealized profits come, the first reaction shouldn't be excitement
Many people start to lose their heads at this point—"Wait a bit longer, I can make more" or "This wave will bring a big profit." My experience is exactly the opposite: once the position turns green, the first thing to do is move the stop loss up to lock in risk, not to increase greed.
In plain terms: unrealized profits are just numbers; only realized profits are money. Until profits are locked in, the market is just temporarily lending them to you.
---
Two legs, two ways to handle:
· The $BTC position following the trend: the trend is still intact, so let it run a bit longer, move the stop loss accordingly, don’t rush to close everything.
· The high-leverage + oversold position: be careful here. Oversold means a sudden spike could wipe out all unrealized profits at any time. When leverage is high, staying alive is more important than making more money.
It's like playing cards—you don’t relax just because you have a good hand. The better it goes, the more you need to watch yourself not to get carried away. Adding to winning positions or holding heavy positions stubbornly are "traps after victory."
---
Here’s my current trading discipline (plain talk version):
1. When unrealized profits exceed a certain percentage, immediately move the stop loss above the cost line—at least this trade won’t lose.
2. Take profits in batches—don’t fantasize about selling at the lowest point (or highest point for shorts). Selling in parts avoids missing out or selling too early.
3. Don’t add to positions with unrealized profits—wanting to add when prices rise is greed; wanting to add when prices fall is fear; both are deadly.
4. Set a daily "satisfaction" goal—once reached, exit and don’t look back.
---
💎 To sum it up plainly:
Unrealized profits are not profits; only realized profits count. When your position turns green, don’t get carried away. Move your stop loss up, take profits in batches, control leverage—if you do these three things right, you’ll survive no matter how the market twists.
Brothers, when you have unrealized profits, do you choose to "wait a bit longer" or "lock in profits first"? Let’s chat in the comments! 👇
(This is just random talk, not investment advice. Those who know how to buy are apprentices, those who know how to sell are masters, and those who know how to stay out are grandmasters!)$BTC $ETH
Let's talk about an unusual phenomenon: CPI and PPI have cooled down, so why aren't BTC and ETH rising?
The most unusual thing these past two days isn't the decline, but that all the good news has arrived, yet the market still looks sleepy.
CPI year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, while core CPI fell to 2.5%; The PPI was even lower than expected, with the month-on-month drop to zero.
According to the usual script, with inflation cooling and easing interest rate pressure, risk assets should at least respond.
But what about now?
BTC reached an intraday high of 63,998, with the current price returning to around 63,450; ETH peaked at 1899.48, current price is 1886.
Rush in, and there's no follow-up immediately.
This shows that the current problem is not macro-level.
Macro factors have only temporarily relieved the pressure to "continue raising rates," but it has not brought new active buying to the crypto world. US stocks, AI, and storage chains are driven by risk appetite, while BTC and ETH can't even catch the positive news. On the market, traders are "some exiting on the rally," not "funds rushing to buy."
So I won't call for a reversal just because of a single PPI.
Next, let's look at two verifications:
Can BTC effectively reclaim 64,000, rather than just rushing and then dropping?
Can ETH recover 1,900 and hold firm on the rebound?
If you can't regain your position, the positive CPI and PPI will at most give the market a breather.
The truly tough market never comes from bad news crashing down, but when good news arrives, the coins you hold still refuse to rise.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, pressure from the US and Iran escalates
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets ⚡ $PI Quick Summary
* Price: $0.08923 (+0.29%)
* Support: $0.08851 (MA5) | $0.08772 (24h Low)
* Resistance: $0.08949 (MA10) | $0.09020 (24h High)
🎯 Key Levels:
* Bullish: Break above $0.08949 ➡️ Target $0.09020 – $0.09600
* Bearish: Drop below $0.08772 ➡️ Retest $0.08596 (MA20)
DYOR. Not financial advice.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #OKXTraderVoices $SUI is oscillating near the 52-week low around $0.68, with low trading volume and Bitcoin's 58.5% market dominance creating the current main conflict.
After falling 87% from the peak of $5.3, the price is currently resting on the key support range of $0.65-$0.68.
A 35.7% weekly increase in on-chain stablecoins indicates that funds have not completely exited, but under the market dominance pressure, spot buy orders are still unable to support a trend reversal.
The bullish scenario requires the price to first break through the dense resistance band at $0.70-$0.75 with increased volume.
When the price continuously rises with volume above $0.77, the dominant bearish trend is declared invalid, and the downtrend structure is broken.
The bearish scenario requires caution against the price falling below the $0.65 level, which may trigger stop-loss selling and open new downside space.
If after breaking below $0.65, the price quickly recovers above $0.68 with volume, the bearish breakdown scenario is invalidated.
In the next 7 days, focus on the volume changes in the $0.65-$0.68 support zone and whether Bitcoin's market dominance peaks at 58.5%.
#Tether首次完整审计：透明度成焦点 #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化Single Coin Contract Fluctuation
$EDEN contract positions have accelerated for a period; position changes provide more information than just price rises or falls.
Price and positions both decline together, a -2.21%/-5.76% combination better fits a bull exit. Market buy side accounts for 46.9%; if price rebounds but positions do not rise, it is still just a recovery after exit.Completely done, totally done, following Bird Brother to short $SNDK, and last night it directly released good news: it is expected to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders.
This is a big positive. If the resistance at 1600 is also broken, then there is a high probability it will go to 2000, regardless of the shorts who first blew up the bottom at 3721.
My current cost price is 1420. If it continues to surge tonight, I will cut losses and not hold on stubbornly.
#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 CPI has settled, and chip and AI hardware have collectively surged, with the market clearly experiencing a short squeeze rally. But looking at the entire trading day, it opened high and fell all night, somewhat suggesting that institutions quietly sold off during this rally. The index has been flat for six trading days with no direction—what does this indicate?
No new funds are entering the market; it’s still a zero-sum game with existing funds circulating. Chip hardware is rising, but software and most other sectors are collectively retreating. The S&P only rose slightly, and the Dow even fell. This is not a broad rally; it’s just funds shifting positions within the existing pool.
My personal trading approach is to continue to be bullish in the short term, focusing mainly on chip hardware. But I do have concerns about the future, so I also bought longer-dated hedges. I just checked the data—demand for deep out-of-the-money put options has reached a five-year high. This is the stock market’s version of "trust but hedge your bets."
Going deeper, when Powell first played the hawk, I thought he was a dove in a hawk’s disguise. At the time, it was just a guess, but the more time passes, the more it seems true. And this isn’t just about whether Powell is hawkish or dovish; it’s about the country’s development path.
Everyone should stop blindly believing in the Fed’s independence. Independence is a narrative, not a fact. The Fed’s independence means it has the authority to independently exercise monetary policy tools, but that doesn’t mean its exercise of power is free from real-world constraints, especially fiscal constraints. Fiscal and monetary policies must coordinate; this is inevitable in modern economic development. Usually, they make independent decisions within their respective authorities because the situation is normal. But is the current global economy, or the current U.S., really normal?
$SNDK $SPCX $XAU Haven't looked at Bitcoin data comprehensively for a long time. Today I reorganized it again. Although I feel the data is a complete mess, there is still a glimmer of hope. At least it's clearly visible that high-net-worth investors are continuously buying, and traditional investors in spot ETFs have a pretty obvious bottom-fishing intention around $60,000. Also, long-term holders might indeed be affected by cold wallets causing portfolio shifts. Overall, my confidence in $BTC remains quite strong.
Of course, the key focus is still on the US macro political and economic situation, and right now the most critical issue is the war between the US and Iran. Today I saw some friends say they get irritated just seeing the word "Hormuz" on the timeline. Honestly, I myself feel annoyed writing about it, but there's no way around it. Whenever we talk about the US and inflation, we have to mention Hormuz. Hormuz has become a thorn in America's side.
Seeing the US fiscal deficit today also makes it clear that continuing this fight is only getting harder for the US. Even if they can suppress Iran militarily, for a theocratic state, they don't need high-tech weapons. Drones plus small boats can instill fear in ships passing through Hormuz, not to mention cheap naval mines. It feels like the US is in a tough spot, and Iran charging 7% is a bit shameless.
At times like this, the whole world should unite to resist Iran, rather than letting Iran demand exorbitant fees. Today Iran dares to ask for 7%, tomorrow they might demand 20%. The global economy is being held hostage by one Iran, and I really can't understand it.$BTC $SNDK Bitcoin continued its weak volatility today. After surging to $64,014 in the early morning, it faced pressure and fell back, then broke below the key psychological level of $63,000, hitting a low of $62,846. Large whales continue to offload while ETF inflows sharply decline, maintaining the bearish trend. The current quote is about $63,414, with the rebound only a technical correction.
SanDisk is the exact opposite. Yesterday, on Investor Day, the company provided a long-term guidance of mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth and about 80% gross margin for fiscal years 2028-2030, and promised 100% excess free cash flow return to shareholders. Goldman Sachs reiterated a buy rating with a target price of $2,200. SanDisk surged as much as 17.6% intraday, closing up 13.67% at $1,528.
The divergence between the two is obvious: macro uncertainty suppresses risk assets, while individual stock fundamentals can independently drive significant gains.
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 Like the line at the supermarket checkout, a few people in front leave, the line suddenly loosens a bit, but the shelves are not emptied. Last night, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $131.1 million, with $BTC spot still hovering around 63403, down only -0.437% in 24 hours, and the low of 62802 was not further broken.
I didn’t short here; above 63380, I only placed a 2% short test with a stop loss at 64080 and a target initially at 62850. The reason is straightforward: this outflow suppresses sentiment, but the market hasn’t turned one-sided yet. The contract/spot volume ratio has reached 10.7x, indicating that the current noise is mainly leverage amplification, not spot funds withdrawing all the way. The funding rate is still +0.0089%, so the bulls haven’t fully let go, and the squeeze conditions remain.
If I really want to short, I need to see 62800 broken and a failure to rebound, then add 3% position. If the price climbs back above 64000, I will exit this short position directly and not hold on.
For this kind of ETF outflow, just looking at the news isn’t enough; you have to see if the price continues to break down. Last night’s move looks more like someone reducing positions first, and the market hasn’t unified its direction yet. I’ll handle my trades by range first, without preset assumptions. $BTC #BTC
The market is changing; what applies today might not apply tomorrow. $SUI has fallen from its historical high of $5.3 down to around $0.68, a drop of over 87%, currently at a 52-week low. On-chain fundamentals have not collapsed: although TVL has retreated from the $2.1 billion peak, it still maintains a scale of several hundred million dollars, stablecoins have a weekly growth rate of 35.7%, and ecosystem projects like Tessera and Tether Hadron have recently been launched consecutively.
However, the core issue in the current market is the overall lack of liquidity. Bitcoin's market dominance continues to rise to 58.5%, the "vampire" effect suppresses altcoin performance, funds are reluctant to enter the market on a large scale, SUI spot trading volume is sluggish, and the rebound lacks strong buying support.
Technically, the 0.65-0.68 range forms a short-term key support, but resistance is dense between 0.70-0.75. Only a sustained volume breakout above 0.77 could potentially reverse the bearish trend. Additionally, although the departure of the co-founder and CTO was orderly handed over, it remains a long-term uncertainty factor.Will the ultimate form of the Web3 ecosystem be an integration of "social + trading"?
Previously, for interaction: you used one app to check market trends, another app for trading, and had to switch to Telegram for chatting and communication.
The ACO public chain directly connects these scenarios:
On-chain encrypted communication + decentralized social plaza + DEX trading + US stock RWA + node staking dividends, all completed on a single chain.
If an ecosystem can meet the vast majority of your daily Web3 needs, would you be willing to move your assets and social relationships over?
👇 Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
#Web3 #ACO #cryptocurrency #blockchain #DeFi 🦅 Behind the Cooling CPI/PPI Data: Inflation Is Not Over, Macro Risks Still Hover Over the Market
Both CPI and PPI have declined, superficially indicating some relief in inflationary pressure, but core CPI remains at 2.5%, still significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% policy target. Inflation is only slowing down, not fully suppressed. Diverging views within the Fed are widening, with hawkish officials still considering the possibility of further rate hikes.
The market has already fully priced in a pause in rate hikes for September, and risk assets have preemptively reflected this positive news in their prices. This overly optimistic expectation itself harbors the risk of a pullback. When the central bank's annual meeting occurs, if officials deliver a relatively hawkish stance, the market will quickly revise rate hike expectations, U.S. Treasury yields will rebound, and assets like cryptocurrencies and gold will be impacted.
$BTC Faces Multiple Negative Factors
While external macro uncertainties persist, selling pressure within the crypto space has not disappeared. Miners and whales continue transferring holdings to exchanges, indicating potential sell orders on standby. Additionally, a single-day outflow from the BTC spot ETF shows institutional funds are no longer blindly buying; buying momentum has weakened.
The $64000 area gathers a large amount of previously trapped positions and short-term profit-taking. Every approach to this range encounters concentrated selling. Even if short-term data-driven rallies occur, the market often plays out as "buy the rumor, sell the fact," with prices retreating after surges. The current market phase reflects that positive news has been priced in, but there is a lack of new capital to sustain momentum, making upward breakthroughs difficult.
Extra caution is needed on derivatives; once macro news disturbs the market, leveraged longs can easily trigger concentrated stop losses, amplifying downward volatility.
Gold Is Not an Absolutely Safe Haven Either
Many investors habitually believe that falling inflation will push gold prices higher, but the reality is more complex. Gold is already trading at high levels, and the continuous expansion of U.S. debt supply exerts pressure. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could rise to challenge 4.8%. Rising yields directly reduce the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset.
Even with temporary support from geopolitical risk aversion, under the pressure of rising Treasury yields, gold is unlikely to sustain a continuous strong rally and will likely enter a high-level consolidation or even weaken.
Practical Strategies and Risk Warnings
In a phase of uncertain macro expectations, actively opening long positions has a poor risk-reward ratio and is not suitable for blind chasing of rallies.
1. If $BTC rebounds above $63800, near the resistance zone, consider light short positions; avoid blindly bottom-fishing at low levels as support can be broken by news at any time.
2. If gold rebounds above 4370, consider short positions to play for a pullback.
Key Reminder: Fed officials' speeches can be highly sudden and can reverse short-term market trends within minutes. Avoid heavy bets on a single direction, tighten position sizes, and always set stop losses. Do not equate cooling inflation directly with a sustained market rise; the market always trades ahead of expectations. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 Institutions have begun actively allocating multiple tokens, and the competition between BTC and ETH is changing its focus
In mid-July, T. Rowe Price launched an actively managed multi-token spot trading product, offering options covering assets such as $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, and HYPE. The key point is not that another product is added, but that traditional asset management has begun to proactively decide "which coin to allocate and how much."
In the past, when institutions entered the crypto market, the first question was whether to buy BTC. Later, ETH was added, and the question became which is more worth allocating: digital gold or on-chain finance. Now that multi-token products have emerged, the question has further become: Can different public chains, payment networks, and application tokens be continuously compared within the same research framework?
This is good for BTC, as it remains the liquidity anchor and risk benchmark for the entire portfolio; It's also good news for ETH, because institutions no longer have to package it as a "second BTC," but can value it separately according to the logic of staking, stablecoins, DeFi, and settlement networks. But for other tokens, the threshold has actually risen. Entering the product list only means obtaining exam qualification, not long-term weighting.
Active management means institutions will switch positions, and it means every chain must let data speak: whether users stay, whether fees are sustainable, and whether tokens capture value. The next stage of institutionalization in crypto assets may no longer be all coins rising simultaneously, but rather research capabilities determining capital flows.
ETFs have opened the door, and active allocation has truly started selecting seats.#S&P Closes at New High Again, 8000-Point Expectation Heats Up
⚡S&P hits another new closing high! The battle for 8000 points is imminent, and core disagreements are emerging
Many are closely watching the S&P 500 sprint toward the 8000 mark, with the index now only about 2.6% away from this target. At this stage, a bullish target of 8000 is no longer a bold prediction; the real core conflict in the market lies elsewhere: Will the final stretch of this rally be driven by realized corporate earnings, or will it be completed by another surge in AI sector valuations?
Let's review last night's US stock market close, where the market overall moved higher with some volatility. The S&P 500 rose 0.65%, closing at 7798.99 points; the Nasdaq performed stronger with a 0.81% gain, while the Dow Jones edged up 0.13%. With moderate PPI data, the market dismissed fears of further Fed tightening. Capital flooded into AI sectors, semiconductors, and storage, continuing the strong sector momentum.
Investment banking giant JPMorgan Chase updated its outlook, raising the year-end S&P 500 target from 7800 to 8000 points. At the same time, it raised earnings forecasts, projecting 2026 EPS at $365 and 2027 EPS at $420. On the surface, the supporting logic seems solid: statistics show that among companies that have reported earnings, 78% exceeded market expectations, with Q2 overall earnings growth reaching 53%; institutions estimate global AI capital expenditure will hit $900 billion in 2026 and surpass $1.2 trillion in 2027. Leading cloud service providers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud continue to expand revenue, making the story appear perfectly closed.
However, most people are blinded by the flashy headlines and miss key risks. JPMorgan itself issued a risk warning: excluding unrealized gains from Google and Amazon, the market's real Q2 earnings growth is only 31%, a huge gap from the 53% reported on paper.
This means the 8000-point level will not be easily reached solely by endless AI investment. Essentially, the market is betting on a high-stakes gamble: whether massive ongoing capital expenditures can successfully convert into cloud business revenue and stable cash flow, driving continuous upward revisions in corporate earnings.
Here’s my exclusive view: the current market is a structural rally driven by AI and duration logic, far from a broad-based risk appetite recovery.
Referencing real-time market data, BTC is quoted at $63,451.9, down slightly 0.11% in 24 hours; ETH is at $1884.91, up 0.09% intraday, with BTC perpetual contract funding rate maintaining a positive 0.0087%.
If global liquidity were broadly flowing into risk assets, cryptocurrencies should be rising in tandem. Yet, while US stocks keep hitting new highs, the crypto market remains range-bound, indicating capital is conservative, clustering only around the most certain AI leaders and unwilling to diversify widely.
Therefore, we need to view the 8000-point rally in two stages:
First stage: testing and touching 8000 points. With less than 2.6% gap, market sentiment combined with top tech heavyweight rallies could reach the target.
Second stage: effectively holding above 8000 points. The threshold is much tougher; earnings growth cannot be concentrated in just a few giants but must spread to semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, computing power, electricity, software, and other upstream and downstream industries; simultaneously, high-volatility assets like BTC must start to follow the rally to confirm market diffusion.
Going forward, focus should not be limited to index levels but on whether two divergences can be repaired: one is the gap between impressive reported earnings and real earnings growth excluding special gains; the other is the disconnect between US stocks continuously hitting new highs and crypto markets remaining flat.
As these two divergences narrow, a sustainable breakthrough of 8000 points becomes possible; if divergence worsens, the push to 8000 is likely just a short-term peak driven by clustered funds.
I pose two questions for discussion: After the S&P 500 successfully reaches 8000 points, does it have the conditions to hold? If you could only pick one signal to judge the quality of this rally, would you track AI corporate earnings realization or observe whether BTC can strengthen alongside US stocks?
#S&P Closes at New High Again, 8000-Point Expectation Heats Up #CPI and PPI Cool Down Together, Rate Hike Disagreements Widen $ETH $BTC $OKB