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Any BTC bought in 2025 would be at a loss if held until now. Therefore, as long as the 2025 chips decrease, except for wallet transfers, the rest are sell-offs at a loss.
As of today, there are still 4.77 million BTC from 2025, down 41.5% from the peak in December last year.
The slope of the downward trend clearly has two segments: a rapid decline before February, and a slowdown after February, but still maintaining a certain slope.
This group is probably the largest supply side in the current market.
Comparing data from 2024, 2023, and 2022, it’s not hard to see that these chips with unrealized gains have basically passed the steep phase of the decline slope.
Moreover, the longer the time, the smaller the slope. From the chart, the slope of the curve after February almost became a straight line.
Even if the price falls further, the change in the number of these chips is not obvious. In other words, those who needed to turnover have done so, and the rest remain inactive.
From the past two bear markets, at the 2022 bear bottom, the high-position chips from 2021 dropped by 51%; at the 2018 bear bottom, the high-position chips from 2017 dropped by 62%;
If we simply extrapolate, I personally think the bottom of this bear market will be at most 50-60% (currently 41%), not yet considering BTC bought by 2025 ETFs and MicroStrategy, most of which are locked and inactive.Still drawing lines? Wake up.
The only thing that can kick up the price in one go is never on the candlestick.
Washington slams the table, the Fed changes its tone, and the Middle East blows up oil pipelines—any one of these three works better than drawing a hundred golden crosses.
The three true giants of the crypto world:
1. CPI — The Fed's Tightening Spell — Did July Data Drop? Don't get too happy too soon. "Not that bad" doesn't mean "it got better"; the Fed has to really spend money to raise prices. Rushing in now is like dancing in a minefield.
2. SEC — The "Black Wallet" Dilemma in the Crypto Circle CLARITY has been pushed back into September. In the US, the crypto world remains largely unknown to this day. The SEC sues one today, fines that tomorrow—do institutions dare to make a big move? If big money doesn't move, coin prices become a zero-sum game of stock competition.
3. Hormuz — The Black Swan Nest The US-Iran talks collapsed, the strait was sealed, and oil prices soared. Oil prices → inflation→ rate hikes→ liquidity drainage→ a waterfall in the crypto world. If it really comes to a fight, all your support and resistance levels are just paper.
I'm not looking at the line now, but looking at these signals:
$BTC: Will institutions buy?
$ETH: Will ecosystem funds recover?
$SOL: Has the market gone crazy?
$HYPE: Has the gambler entered yet?
$OKB: Can the bear market soy sauce still hold up?
The next major market move will come from news headlines, not technical indicators.
Look at the world more, and less at screens. Living capital is more important than anything else.
Betting on one: CPI, SEC, Middle East—who will explode first? 👇
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, pressure from the US and Iran escalates
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets Using "revenue" to value a coin, I first take a step back with the calculator. Bitcoin miner revenue does not equal cash flow to coin holders; the same goes for Ethereum. More fees only translate to tokens if they are burned or locked as settlement demand.
In Q1, Ethereum base layer transactions reached about 200.4 million, a quarterly record, but low-fee scaling means transaction count, fees, and burns no longer move in sync. It's lively, but the ledger won't applaud automatically.
My method isn't sophisticated; it's a bit like watching fireworks with a calculator. I monitor seven-day fees, base fee burn volume, and net issuance—these three must at least explain each other.
If funding rates spike first, who cleans up after this party?
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and be aware of risks. #$ETH #CPI and PPI Cooling Down Simultaneously, Interest Rate Hike Divergence Widens
Current inflation is only slowing down; core CPI at 2.5% remains above the 2% target. Hawkish Federal Reserve officials have not abandoned the rate hike stance. The market is currently overbetting on a pause in rate hikes in September. If the central bank's annual meeting speech turns hawkish, rate hike expectations will quickly rebound, directly hitting three types of assets.
On-chain BTC miners and whales continue transferring to exchanges to sell, and this selling pressure has not disappeared. Previously, BTC spot ETFs experienced a single-day net outflow of funds, with insufficient buying momentum. Heavy selling pressure above 64,000 makes it difficult to break previous highs, likely leading to a pullback after positive news is fully priced in.
Gold is currently at a high level, but long-term supply pressure from U.S. Treasuries remains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still has potential to rise to 4.8%, which will continue to suppress gold's gains, likely causing short-term volatility and weakness.
In terms of operations, avoid opening long positions. Light short positions can be tried if BTC rebounds above 63,800. For gold, short positions can be set above 4,370 with strict position control to avoid sudden volatility caused by Federal Reserve officials' speeches.
$BTC $ETH $XAU Today, as soon as Mazi Ge spoke, $SPCX shot straight to the skies.
It surged to a high of 149.6 and closed at 146.15, up 9.65%. From the low, it has risen about 40%.
And now it's about to drop below 140 again.
My strategy was selling short positions too early; looking back now, it really was a slap on the thigh.
What did Musk say at the all-hands meeting?
AI revenue will surpass all other SpaceX businesses next month
AI computing power will reach 10 gigawatts by the end of next year
His estimate: In five years, AI will contribute 99% of SpaceX's value
What does this mean? SpaceX's valuation logic has been overturned—from an aerospace company to a space AI computing power company. The valuation logic has changed, so the prices the market offers naturally differ.
But there's one thing to mention:
Capital expenditure in the second quarter was 18.37 billion yuan, of which 15.8 billion was invested in AI infrastructure, with revenue of only 7.8 billion yuan. The rate of burning money is 2.35 times the income.
The bigger the pie, the more money burns out.
The storage sector also surged: SK Hynix rose over 9%, SanDisk rose 5.76%, and Micron rose nearly 5%.
Expanding computing power requires chips, storage, and optical communications—the entire industry chain is following suit.
SanDisk also has an Investor Day today, and the market is waiting for management to present a roadmap for AI storage.
Summary: The entire AI infrastructure line—from chips to storage to computing power—is being repriced.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#海力士推进NAND扩产, storage supply expectations are rising
$SNDK $SKHYNIX
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets Bitcoin performed relatively weakly last night, while the US stock market mostly rose, but Bitcoin directly plunged. The short position at 64K yesterday was not reached; it only got to 63.9K before dropping.
Don't pursue perfection too much in trading; as long as you are roughly correct within a certain range, it's fine. Just like building a position at the bottom—you can't catch the absolute lowest point, so you need to build your position in batches within the bottom area.
If you think Bitcoin is likely to fall significantly, I still suggest holding a light position and waiting for the drop. Why not just clear your position? Can you hold on if there is a big rebound? Would you end up FOMO chasing the high? 🤣
Nothing is absolute; acknowledge your limitations and do things that are roughly correct!如果一觉醒来看到合约榜上有人涨了48%，有人跌了18%，你会先点开哪一边？ 同一根K线里，多空差了66个点，这种撕裂感比单边行情更让人清醒。今天最可怕的不是踏空，而是在情绪最热的时刻站错了队。 我习惯把这种日子当成风险管理课的随堂测验，不急着找机会，先看自己的仓位能不能扛住波动。 先记录几个关键信号，今天永续涨幅榜前排非常有意思，EDEN 以48%的涨幅断层领跑，成交额4875万，比第二名的AEON多了近3000万。这种量价关系说明资金在某个价格区间内达成了共识，但注意，领跑者与第二名拉开28个点的距离，恰恰意味着短期追高的容错率极低。如果想参与，拼的是速度和止损纪律，而不是信仰。 跌幅榜同样值得看，LAB跌了18%，APR成交额高达4.5亿却跌了5.6%，这种放量下跌通常说明有资金在借流动性出货。新上市的几个合约品种几乎全线小幅走低，这提醒了我一件事，新币不代表新机会，它可能只是新风险。 从盘面传导到情绪层面，我能感受到今天的市场处于一种高敏感状态，风险偏好两极分化，资金没有明确主线，更像是各自为战。这种时候，指数涨跌未必反映真实赚钱效应。 如果非要给今天定个调，我的理解是，市场正在🚨 CPI cooled. PPI cooled. Rate-cut hopes are rising… so why does crypto look half-asleep? 👀
You’d expect $BTC and $ETH to be celebrating.
But they’re barely reacting.
Here’s the part traders often forget: markets move on expectations, not headlines.
$BTC is hovering around $63,552, with $64K still proving difficult to break.
$ETH is around $1,886, repeatedly knocking on $1,900 without a convincing breakout.
So what’s going on?
A lot of traders may have positioned for the “good inflation news” before the numbers even landed.
When the data finally arrived, much of the bullish expectation may have already been priced in.
And with roughly $140M in options expiring tonight, there’s another reason for the market to stay cautious.
So I’m not chasing the headline.
I’m watching price, volume, and confirmation.
Because sometimes the most bullish news…
is already priced in. 📊
Personal market view, not financial advice.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #DailyOrbit
#DailyOrbit 👀 Brothers, the two short positions in hand have finally turned green these past two days!
But honestly, this is the most dangerous time—not because we're afraid of being wrong about the direction, but because we're afraid of getting carried away. Today, I won't talk about the market, but about mindset, which is more important than candlesticks.
---
When unrealized profits come, the first reaction shouldn't be excitement
Many people start to lose their heads at this point—"Wait a bit longer, I can make more" or "This wave will bring a big profit." My experience is exactly the opposite: once the position turns green, the first thing to do is move the stop loss up to lock in risk, not to increase greed.
In plain terms: unrealized profits are just numbers; only realized profits are money. Until profits are locked in, the market is just temporarily lending them to you.
---
Two legs, two ways to handle:
· The $BTC position following the trend: the trend is still intact, so let it run a bit longer, move the stop loss accordingly, don’t rush to close everything.
· The high-leverage + oversold position: be careful here. Oversold means a sudden spike could wipe out all unrealized profits at any time. When leverage is high, staying alive is more important than making more money.
It's like playing cards—you don’t relax just because you have a good hand. The better it goes, the more you need to watch yourself not to get carried away. Adding to winning positions or holding heavy positions stubbornly are "traps after victory."
---
Here’s my current trading discipline (plain talk version):
1. When unrealized profits exceed a certain percentage, immediately move the stop loss above the cost line—at least this trade won’t lose.
2. Take profits in batches—don’t fantasize about selling at the lowest point (or highest point for shorts). Selling in parts avoids missing out or selling too early.
3. Don’t add to positions with unrealized profits—wanting to add when prices rise is greed; wanting to add when prices fall is fear; both are deadly.
4. Set a daily "satisfaction" goal—once reached, exit and don’t look back.
---
💎 To sum it up plainly:
Unrealized profits are not profits; only realized profits count. When your position turns green, don’t get carried away. Move your stop loss up, take profits in batches, control leverage—if you do these three things right, you’ll survive no matter how the market twists.
Brothers, when you have unrealized profits, do you choose to "wait a bit longer" or "lock in profits first"? Let’s chat in the comments! 👇
(This is just random talk, not investment advice. Those who know how to buy are apprentices, those who know how to sell are masters, and those who know how to stay out are grandmasters!)$BTC $ETH
Let's talk about an unusual phenomenon: CPI and PPI have cooled down, so why aren't BTC and ETH rising?
The most unusual thing these past two days isn't the decline, but that all the good news has arrived, yet the market still looks sleepy.
CPI year-on-year fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, while core CPI fell to 2.5%; The PPI was even lower than expected, with the month-on-month drop to zero.
According to the usual script, with inflation cooling and easing interest rate pressure, risk assets should at least respond.
But what about now?
BTC reached an intraday high of 63,998, with the current price returning to around 63,450; ETH peaked at 1899.48, current price is 1886.
Rush in, and there's no follow-up immediately.
This shows that the current problem is not macro-level.
Macro factors have only temporarily relieved the pressure to "continue raising rates," but it has not brought new active buying to the crypto world. US stocks, AI, and storage chains are driven by risk appetite, while BTC and ETH can't even catch the positive news. On the market, traders are "some exiting on the rally," not "funds rushing to buy."
So I won't call for a reversal just because of a single PPI.
Next, let's look at two verifications:
Can BTC effectively reclaim 64,000, rather than just rushing and then dropping?
Can ETH recover 1,900 and hold firm on the rebound?
If you can't regain your position, the positive CPI and PPI will at most give the market a breather.
The truly tough market never comes from bad news crashing down, but when good news arrives, the coins you hold still refuse to rise.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
#霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, pressure from the US and Iran escalates
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets ⚡ $PI Quick Summary
* Price: $0.08923 (+0.29%)
* Support: $0.08851 (MA5) | $0.08772 (24h Low)
* Resistance: $0.08949 (MA10) | $0.09020 (24h High)
🎯 Key Levels:
* Bullish: Break above $0.08949 ➡️ Target $0.09020 – $0.09600
* Bearish: Drop below $0.08772 ➡️ Retest $0.08596 (MA20)
DYOR. Not financial advice.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #OKXTraderVoices $SUI is oscillating near the 52-week low around $0.68, with low trading volume and Bitcoin's 58.5% market dominance creating the current main conflict.
After falling 87% from the peak of $5.3, the price is currently resting on the key support range of $0.65-$0.68.
A 35.7% weekly increase in on-chain stablecoins indicates that funds have not completely exited, but under the market dominance pressure, spot buy orders are still unable to support a trend reversal.
The bullish scenario requires the price to first break through the dense resistance band at $0.70-$0.75 with increased volume.
When the price continuously rises with volume above $0.77, the dominant bearish trend is declared invalid, and the downtrend structure is broken.
The bearish scenario requires caution against the price falling below the $0.65 level, which may trigger stop-loss selling and open new downside space.
If after breaking below $0.65, the price quickly recovers above $0.68 with volume, the bearish breakdown scenario is invalidated.
In the next 7 days, focus on the volume changes in the $0.65-$0.68 support zone and whether Bitcoin's market dominance peaks at 58.5%.
#Tether首次完整审计：透明度成焦点 #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化Single Coin Contract Fluctuation
$EDEN contract positions have accelerated for a period; position changes provide more information than just price rises or falls.
Price and positions both decline together, a -2.21%/-5.76% combination better fits a bull exit. Market buy side accounts for 46.9%; if price rebounds but positions do not rise, it is still just a recovery after exit.Completely done, totally done, following Bird Brother to short $SNDK, and last night it directly released good news: it is expected to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders.
This is a big positive. If the resistance at 1600 is also broken, then there is a high probability it will go to 2000, regardless of the shorts who first blew up the bottom at 3721.
My current cost price is 1420. If it continues to surge tonight, I will cut losses and not hold on stubbornly.
#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 CPI has settled, and chip and AI hardware have collectively surged, with the market clearly experiencing a short squeeze rally. But looking at the entire trading day, it opened high and fell all night, somewhat suggesting that institutions quietly sold off during this rally. The index has been flat for six trading days with no direction—what does this indicate?
No new funds are entering the market; it’s still a zero-sum game with existing funds circulating. Chip hardware is rising, but software and most other sectors are collectively retreating. The S&P only rose slightly, and the Dow even fell. This is not a broad rally; it’s just funds shifting positions within the existing pool.
My personal trading approach is to continue to be bullish in the short term, focusing mainly on chip hardware. But I do have concerns about the future, so I also bought longer-dated hedges. I just checked the data—demand for deep out-of-the-money put options has reached a five-year high. This is the stock market’s version of "trust but hedge your bets."
Going deeper, when Powell first played the hawk, I thought he was a dove in a hawk’s disguise. At the time, it was just a guess, but the more time passes, the more it seems true. And this isn’t just about whether Powell is hawkish or dovish; it’s about the country’s development path.
Everyone should stop blindly believing in the Fed’s independence. Independence is a narrative, not a fact. The Fed’s independence means it has the authority to independently exercise monetary policy tools, but that doesn’t mean its exercise of power is free from real-world constraints, especially fiscal constraints. Fiscal and monetary policies must coordinate; this is inevitable in modern economic development. Usually, they make independent decisions within their respective authorities because the situation is normal. But is the current global economy, or the current U.S., really normal?
$SNDK $SPCX $XAU Haven't looked at Bitcoin data comprehensively for a long time. Today I reorganized it again. Although I feel the data is a complete mess, there is still a glimmer of hope. At least it's clearly visible that high-net-worth investors are continuously buying, and traditional investors in spot ETFs have a pretty obvious bottom-fishing intention around $60,000. Also, long-term holders might indeed be affected by cold wallets causing portfolio shifts. Overall, my confidence in $BTC remains quite strong.
Of course, the key focus is still on the US macro political and economic situation, and right now the most critical issue is the war between the US and Iran. Today I saw some friends say they get irritated just seeing the word "Hormuz" on the timeline. Honestly, I myself feel annoyed writing about it, but there's no way around it. Whenever we talk about the US and inflation, we have to mention Hormuz. Hormuz has become a thorn in America's side.
Seeing the US fiscal deficit today also makes it clear that continuing this fight is only getting harder for the US. Even if they can suppress Iran militarily, for a theocratic state, they don't need high-tech weapons. Drones plus small boats can instill fear in ships passing through Hormuz, not to mention cheap naval mines. It feels like the US is in a tough spot, and Iran charging 7% is a bit shameless.
At times like this, the whole world should unite to resist Iran, rather than letting Iran demand exorbitant fees. Today Iran dares to ask for 7%, tomorrow they might demand 20%. The global economy is being held hostage by one Iran, and I really can't understand it.$BTC $SNDK Bitcoin continued its weak volatility today. After surging to $64,014 in the early morning, it faced pressure and fell back, then broke below the key psychological level of $63,000, hitting a low of $62,846. Large whales continue to offload while ETF inflows sharply decline, maintaining the bearish trend. The current quote is about $63,414, with the rebound only a technical correction.
SanDisk is the exact opposite. Yesterday, on Investor Day, the company provided a long-term guidance of mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth and about 80% gross margin for fiscal years 2028-2030, and promised 100% excess free cash flow return to shareholders. Goldman Sachs reiterated a buy rating with a target price of $2,200. SanDisk surged as much as 17.6% intraday, closing up 13.67% at $1,528.
The divergence between the two is obvious: macro uncertainty suppresses risk assets, while individual stock fundamentals can independently drive significant gains.
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 Like the line at the supermarket checkout, a few people in front leave, the line suddenly loosens a bit, but the shelves are not emptied. Last night, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $131.1 million, with $BTC spot still hovering around 63403, down only -0.437% in 24 hours, and the low of 62802 was not further broken.
I didn’t short here; above 63380, I only placed a 2% short test with a stop loss at 64080 and a target initially at 62850. The reason is straightforward: this outflow suppresses sentiment, but the market hasn’t turned one-sided yet. The contract/spot volume ratio has reached 10.7x, indicating that the current noise is mainly leverage amplification, not spot funds withdrawing all the way. The funding rate is still +0.0089%, so the bulls haven’t fully let go, and the squeeze conditions remain.
If I really want to short, I need to see 62800 broken and a failure to rebound, then add 3% position. If the price climbs back above 64000, I will exit this short position directly and not hold on.
For this kind of ETF outflow, just looking at the news isn’t enough; you have to see if the price continues to break down. Last night’s move looks more like someone reducing positions first, and the market hasn’t unified its direction yet. I’ll handle my trades by range first, without preset assumptions. $BTC #BTC
The market is changing; what applies today might not apply tomorrow. $SUI has fallen from its historical high of $5.3 down to around $0.68, a drop of over 87%, currently at a 52-week low. On-chain fundamentals have not collapsed: although TVL has retreated from the $2.1 billion peak, it still maintains a scale of several hundred million dollars, stablecoins have a weekly growth rate of 35.7%, and ecosystem projects like Tessera and Tether Hadron have recently been launched consecutively.
However, the core issue in the current market is the overall lack of liquidity. Bitcoin's market dominance continues to rise to 58.5%, the "vampire" effect suppresses altcoin performance, funds are reluctant to enter the market on a large scale, SUI spot trading volume is sluggish, and the rebound lacks strong buying support.
Technically, the 0.65-0.68 range forms a short-term key support, but resistance is dense between 0.70-0.75. Only a sustained volume breakout above 0.77 could potentially reverse the bearish trend. Additionally, although the departure of the co-founder and CTO was orderly handed over, it remains a long-term uncertainty factor.Will the ultimate form of the Web3 ecosystem be an integration of "social + trading"?
Previously, for interaction: you used one app to check market trends, another app for trading, and had to switch to Telegram for chatting and communication.
The ACO public chain directly connects these scenarios:
On-chain encrypted communication + decentralized social plaza + DEX trading + US stock RWA + node staking dividends, all completed on a single chain.
If an ecosystem can meet the vast majority of your daily Web3 needs, would you be willing to move your assets and social relationships over?
👇 Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
#Web3 #ACO #cryptocurrency #blockchain #DeFi 🦅 Behind the Cooling CPI/PPI Data: Inflation Is Not Over, Macro Risks Still Hover Over the Market
Both CPI and PPI have declined, superficially indicating some relief in inflationary pressure, but core CPI remains at 2.5%, still significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% policy target. Inflation is only slowing down, not fully suppressed. Diverging views within the Fed are widening, with hawkish officials still considering the possibility of further rate hikes.
The market has already fully priced in a pause in rate hikes for September, and risk assets have preemptively reflected this positive news in their prices. This overly optimistic expectation itself harbors the risk of a pullback. When the central bank's annual meeting occurs, if officials deliver a relatively hawkish stance, the market will quickly revise rate hike expectations, U.S. Treasury yields will rebound, and assets like cryptocurrencies and gold will be impacted.
$BTC Faces Multiple Negative Factors
While external macro uncertainties persist, selling pressure within the crypto space has not disappeared. Miners and whales continue transferring holdings to exchanges, indicating potential sell orders on standby. Additionally, a single-day outflow from the BTC spot ETF shows institutional funds are no longer blindly buying; buying momentum has weakened.
The $64000 area gathers a large amount of previously trapped positions and short-term profit-taking. Every approach to this range encounters concentrated selling. Even if short-term data-driven rallies occur, the market often plays out as "buy the rumor, sell the fact," with prices retreating after surges. The current market phase reflects that positive news has been priced in, but there is a lack of new capital to sustain momentum, making upward breakthroughs difficult.
Extra caution is needed on derivatives; once macro news disturbs the market, leveraged longs can easily trigger concentrated stop losses, amplifying downward volatility.
Gold Is Not an Absolutely Safe Haven Either
Many investors habitually believe that falling inflation will push gold prices higher, but the reality is more complex. Gold is already trading at high levels, and the continuous expansion of U.S. debt supply exerts pressure. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could rise to challenge 4.8%. Rising yields directly reduce the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset.
Even with temporary support from geopolitical risk aversion, under the pressure of rising Treasury yields, gold is unlikely to sustain a continuous strong rally and will likely enter a high-level consolidation or even weaken.
Practical Strategies and Risk Warnings
In a phase of uncertain macro expectations, actively opening long positions has a poor risk-reward ratio and is not suitable for blind chasing of rallies.
1. If $BTC rebounds above $63800, near the resistance zone, consider light short positions; avoid blindly bottom-fishing at low levels as support can be broken by news at any time.
2. If gold rebounds above 4370, consider short positions to play for a pullback.
Key Reminder: Fed officials' speeches can be highly sudden and can reverse short-term market trends within minutes. Avoid heavy bets on a single direction, tighten position sizes, and always set stop losses. Do not equate cooling inflation directly with a sustained market rise; the market always trades ahead of expectations. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 Institutions have begun actively allocating multiple tokens, and the competition between BTC and ETH is changing its focus
In mid-July, T. Rowe Price launched an actively managed multi-token spot trading product, offering options covering assets such as $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, and HYPE. The key point is not that another product is added, but that traditional asset management has begun to proactively decide "which coin to allocate and how much."
In the past, when institutions entered the crypto market, the first question was whether to buy BTC. Later, ETH was added, and the question became which is more worth allocating: digital gold or on-chain finance. Now that multi-token products have emerged, the question has further become: Can different public chains, payment networks, and application tokens be continuously compared within the same research framework?
This is good for BTC, as it remains the liquidity anchor and risk benchmark for the entire portfolio; It's also good news for ETH, because institutions no longer have to package it as a "second BTC," but can value it separately according to the logic of staking, stablecoins, DeFi, and settlement networks. But for other tokens, the threshold has actually risen. Entering the product list only means obtaining exam qualification, not long-term weighting.
Active management means institutions will switch positions, and it means every chain must let data speak: whether users stay, whether fees are sustainable, and whether tokens capture value. The next stage of institutionalization in crypto assets may no longer be all coins rising simultaneously, but rather research capabilities determining capital flows.
ETFs have opened the door, and active allocation has truly started selecting seats.#S&P Closes at New High Again, 8000-Point Expectation Heats Up
⚡S&P hits another new closing high! The battle for 8000 points is imminent, and core disagreements are emerging
Many are closely watching the S&P 500 sprint toward the 8000 mark, with the index now only about 2.6% away from this target. At this stage, a bullish target of 8000 is no longer a bold prediction; the real core conflict in the market lies elsewhere: Will the final stretch of this rally be driven by realized corporate earnings, or will it be completed by another surge in AI sector valuations?
Let's review last night's US stock market close, where the market overall moved higher with some volatility. The S&P 500 rose 0.65%, closing at 7798.99 points; the Nasdaq performed stronger with a 0.81% gain, while the Dow Jones edged up 0.13%. With moderate PPI data, the market dismissed fears of further Fed tightening. Capital flooded into AI sectors, semiconductors, and storage, continuing the strong sector momentum.
Investment banking giant JPMorgan Chase updated its outlook, raising the year-end S&P 500 target from 7800 to 8000 points. At the same time, it raised earnings forecasts, projecting 2026 EPS at $365 and 2027 EPS at $420. On the surface, the supporting logic seems solid: statistics show that among companies that have reported earnings, 78% exceeded market expectations, with Q2 overall earnings growth reaching 53%; institutions estimate global AI capital expenditure will hit $900 billion in 2026 and surpass $1.2 trillion in 2027. Leading cloud service providers like AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud continue to expand revenue, making the story appear perfectly closed.
However, most people are blinded by the flashy headlines and miss key risks. JPMorgan itself issued a risk warning: excluding unrealized gains from Google and Amazon, the market's real Q2 earnings growth is only 31%, a huge gap from the 53% reported on paper.
This means the 8000-point level will not be easily reached solely by endless AI investment. Essentially, the market is betting on a high-stakes gamble: whether massive ongoing capital expenditures can successfully convert into cloud business revenue and stable cash flow, driving continuous upward revisions in corporate earnings.
Here’s my exclusive view: the current market is a structural rally driven by AI and duration logic, far from a broad-based risk appetite recovery.
Referencing real-time market data, BTC is quoted at $63,451.9, down slightly 0.11% in 24 hours; ETH is at $1884.91, up 0.09% intraday, with BTC perpetual contract funding rate maintaining a positive 0.0087%.
If global liquidity were broadly flowing into risk assets, cryptocurrencies should be rising in tandem. Yet, while US stocks keep hitting new highs, the crypto market remains range-bound, indicating capital is conservative, clustering only around the most certain AI leaders and unwilling to diversify widely.
Therefore, we need to view the 8000-point rally in two stages:
First stage: testing and touching 8000 points. With less than 2.6% gap, market sentiment combined with top tech heavyweight rallies could reach the target.
Second stage: effectively holding above 8000 points. The threshold is much tougher; earnings growth cannot be concentrated in just a few giants but must spread to semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, computing power, electricity, software, and other upstream and downstream industries; simultaneously, high-volatility assets like BTC must start to follow the rally to confirm market diffusion.
Going forward, focus should not be limited to index levels but on whether two divergences can be repaired: one is the gap between impressive reported earnings and real earnings growth excluding special gains; the other is the disconnect between US stocks continuously hitting new highs and crypto markets remaining flat.
As these two divergences narrow, a sustainable breakthrough of 8000 points becomes possible; if divergence worsens, the push to 8000 is likely just a short-term peak driven by clustered funds.
I pose two questions for discussion: After the S&P 500 successfully reaches 8000 points, does it have the conditions to hold? If you could only pick one signal to judge the quality of this rally, would you track AI corporate earnings realization or observe whether BTC can strengthen alongside US stocks?
#S&P Closes at New High Again, 8000-Point Expectation Heats Up #CPI and PPI Cool Down Together, Rate Hike Disagreements Widen $ETH $BTC $OKB BTC daily chart continues to test previous lows downward, rebound bullish candles lack volume support, overall market dominated by bears, no decent buying funds entering.
Currently not suitable for bottom fishing, there is a risk of catching a falling knife. Reversal confirmation condition: a dense bullish buying candle with volume support appears, then a rebound and trend reversal may begin.
Before the signal is met, maintain the bear-dominated pattern, the market is likely to continue a slow decline. 62400-61500 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; if support holds and is not effectively broken,
consider it an excellent low-buy opportunity, with potential for a significant rebound later;
If this support is effectively broken, the bullish logic fails.
$BTC $ETH ETH 还在我的成本线附近磨，但我一点都不慌，因为真正决定方向的不是K线，是衍生品市场里那些看不见的手。 你有没有想过，为什么日本央行一开口，整个加密市场都要抖三抖？ 今天想聊的其实是衍生品结构这个视角，很多人看盘只看价格，但真正聪明的钱早就在期货、期权、资金费率里布好了局。 先说结论：现在这个阶段，不是追涨的时候，也不是恐慌割肉的时候，而是典型的震荡洗筹期，衍生品市场正在用时间换空间。 我自己的ETH多单还拿着，1927那个高点我也没跑，不是死扛，是因为我看了资金费率和期权 skew，发现市场并没有出现极端看空情绪，反而是在慢慢积累多头头寸。 但今天有个变量值得警惕，日本政府表态支持加息，这个信号直接传导到全球风险资产，日元一旦走强，套息交易就会平仓，那些借日元买美债买比特币的资金会被迫回流，流动性瞬间被抽走，加密市场作为高beta资产首当其冲。 从衍生品结构来看，短期合约的持仓量在上升，但资金费率并没有同步飙升，这说明什么？说明大家都在观望，没人敢在这个位置重仓押注方向，都在等一个明确的突破信号。 偏多的一面是，永续合约的基差依然为正，期权市场的看跌保护也没有出现恐慌性溢价，这说明#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Avalanche still has a treasury company supporting it, which is rare, but it seems that no matter how many positive factors there are, AVAX remains a dead snake that's hard to lift its head again.
Q2 revenue increased more than 5 times year-on-year, AVAX One holds 14,091,000 AVAX
2026-08-14 09:17
Odaily Planet Daily reports that AVAX One announced its financial and operational data for Q2 2026, with revenue of $2.8 million during the period, more than 5 times the $452,000 in the same period in 2025. Among them, AVAX staking rewards were about $2.1 million, and Bitcoin mining income was about $700,000. Due to changes in the market value of digital assets, the company recorded a net loss of $35.1 million in Q2, including unrealized losses on digital assets of $29.75 million and impairment of liquid staking tokens of $2.61 million; excluding these non-cash items, the adjusted net loss was $2.2 million.
As of August 13, AVAX One held a total of 14,091,000 AVAX and equivalents, of which about 800,000 have been deployed to Treehouse, with approximately 95% of assets staked, yielding an annualized return of about 5.4%. The company repurchased about 144,800 shares in Q2, with a cumulative repurchase of about 417,500 shares since November 2025. On Wednesday, the July CPI was released — month-on-month up 0.1%, year-on-year up 3.4%; core CPI year-on-year dropped from 2.6% to 2.5%.
On Thursday, the July PPI was released — year-on-year sharply fell from 5.5% to 4.7%, month-on-month remained flat, both below expectations.
On the same day, initial jobless claims rose to 209,000, slightly above the expected 202,000.
Cooling on the production side, cooling on the consumption side, and a slightly cooling job market. These three signals together point in the same direction: inflationary pressure is easing.
After the data release, CME FedWatch showed the probability of maintaining the interest rate in September once rose to 67.6%.
Logically, there should be no rush to raise rates, right?
As of August 14, CME FedWatch shows:
Probability of maintaining the interest rate in September — 65.2%
Probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September — 34.8%
The market bets on no change. But a 34.8% chance of a rate hike is not a small number.
Moreover, by October, the probability of maintaining the rate has dropped to 50.1%, and the probability of a rate hike has risen to 41.8%.
In other words: the market thinks September might stay put, but in October or December, a rate hike might be unavoidable.
The greater the internal division within the Federal Reserve, the greater the market volatility.
Before the FOMC on September 16, every official speech is a targeted blast.
If Harker calls for another rate hike, BTC might drop.
If Barkin says "wait a bit longer" again, BTC might rebound.SanDisk股价在投资者日活动后大幅飙升，盘中涨幅一度接近15%，股价从1427直冲1580。受此带动，SK海力士上涨5.6%，美光科技上涨5.28%，存储芯片板块全线走强。 消息面上，SanDisk在投资者日上发布了激进的中期财务目标：预计2028至2030财年实现平均高双位数营收增长，毛利率目标高达80%，营业利润率目标75%，并承诺将超额现金全部返还股东。这一目标之所以引发市场强烈反应，在于80%的毛利率水平已接近英伟达当前水平。在芯片行业，能够达到这一盈利能力的公司屈指可数。 分析人士指出，SanDisk敢于给出长达三年的前瞻指引，显示管理层对AI存储需求的长期逻辑具有较强信心。此前马斯克曾表示AI算力需求将达到10吉瓦（10 gigawatt）级别，SanDisk此次指引可视为对AI基础设施需求从概念叙事转向实际算账的又一注脚。 存储板块此前表现相对滞后，未完全跟上上一轮AI行情，而本次SanDisk业绩指引则成为资金重新定价整个AI基础设施链条的催化剂，从芯片到存储再到算力环节均受到关注。 宏观层面，美股标普500指数当日首次突破7800点。最新CPI与PPI数据均确认通$SNDK Short-term Refined Review
Only now can we truly understand the real risk points of $SNDK: earnings report crashes have never been the most dangerous time; it's the overextension of expectations that is.
This round of SanDisk's earnings data exploded, with revenue and profits all exceeding expectations, and AI storage demand has not receded, yet the market still experienced intense shakeouts after the earnings release.
The core logic is simple:
The market never trades on past performance, but on future growth.
Previously, the AI storage rally was so strong that it had already priced in the growth potential for the next several years. No matter how good the earnings are, as long as growth expectations cannot continue to break new highs, funds at high levels will cash out and exit, causing severe volatility.
Now the market logic has completely changed:
It's no longer about "whether there is a rally," but "whether the high valuation can hold."
The industry fundamentals remain strong: AI computing infrastructure, enterprise SSDs, and large-capacity storage demand are all robust, and the company's medium- to long-term profit targets are very promising.
But whether the bull run can continue no longer depends on positive news, but on three points:
Demand continuation, price firmness, and profit stability.
If upcoming earnings continue to validate high growth and high profit margins, the current fluctuations are just valuation adjustments;
Once demand slows and profits weaken, the pressure at high levels will be released.
In summary:
SanDisk is not experiencing a cyclical rebound now, but a trial of AI high-valuation certainty.
The real direction will be determined by the next round of earnings validation.
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 Inflation data across upstream and downstream sectors have cooled across the board, with PPI and CPI weakening simultaneously alongside softening employment. The Federal Reserve's constraints on raising interest rates in September have basically been lifted, ushering in a sustained environment of valuation increases for risk assets. It is entirely logical that the S&P 500 has consecutively broken through integer thresholds to reach new highs within just seven days. Citigroup has raised its overall earnings forecast for U.S. stocks, setting a year-end target of 8100, implying that this round of gains has not yet fully priced in all positive factors. The earnings realization in the AI industry chain and storage sectors can continue to push the broader market upward and expand its space.
Looking back at the previous phase when SanDisk $SNDK fell to 980 and $SPCX dipped to 104, it was precisely a panic window period when the market worried about persistently high inflation, ongoing Fed tightening, and weak demand in the storage industry. Now that interest rate risks have eased and the market has opened up upward space, the storage stocks that were mistakenly sold off earlier have strong valuation recovery momentum. The initial reluctance to enter the market and bottom-fish was essentially driven by short-term market pessimism. Now, with the market hitting new highs and looking back, those low points were actually rare opportunities for positioning.
For subsequent operations, there is no need to dwell on missing out on the rally. The S&P should be viewed mainly bullishly in line with the trend, waiting for minor intraday pullbacks to position in heavyweight and AI storage stocks, seizing the second wave of the rally brought by earnings upgrades.
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 In 1 hour, $ETH ETH has broken out of the descending trendline suppression, with highs continuously moving lower. The price has repeatedly tested upwards but has consistently failed to break through the strong resistance zone of 1890-1900. Every rebound that reaches this zone is pushed down by bears.
The rebound highs are gradually decreasing, which is a typical weak consolidation pattern. Bulls are exhausting strength with each rebound. Once the support at 1860-1850 is lost, downward space will open up. It is recommended to short near 1890-1900, targeting 1860-1850, and if broken, look towards 1820. Bitcoin has fallen into a frustrating consolidation pattern, with weak upward momentum and support below. Many traders are caught in a dilemma. From the 1-hour chart, a clear descending trendline is visible, with highs continuously moving lower. Will it continue to weaken like this? Is the cooling of PPI a good thing? S&P hits a new high, but what's rising is suspicious!
Last night PPI was released: year-over-year 4.7%, lower than the expected 4.9%, and month-over-month flat (expected to rise 0.2%).
In plain language: inflation is no longer surging, it’s even cooling off a bit. Plus, CPI softened a few days ago, so the market is convinced the Fed definitely won’t raise rates in September. As a result, the S&P 500 shot up to 7800, hitting an intraday all-time high.
But don’t rush to buy in.
Breaking down who’s rising: Communication Services up 1.56%, Real Estate up 1.34%, Technology up 0.96% — basically, the sectors sensitive to interest rates and reliant on borrowing to generate returns.
On the other hand, Energy and Materials are down, dragged by a sharp drop in oil prices. That’s odd: if the economy were really that strong, cyclical stocks shouldn’t be falling.
So the market is not betting on "strong economy," but on "rate cut expectations" — which has nothing to do with the real economy’s health.
Some might argue: core PPI is still 4.2%, far from the Fed’s 2% target. But the market doesn’t care about that; the VIX fear index dropped to 14.39, the lowest this year.
In simple terms: everyone now only trusts the marginal improvement that "inflation is no longer worsening." As long as data doesn’t get worse, they celebrate first. Is this logic correct? Anyway, money talks.
So what to do now? Chasing highs after a new peak is risky, but don’t stubbornly go against the trend either.
Long: Lightly go long near 7800, target 7950-8000, stop loss at 7730 (if yesterday’s low breaks, admit defeat).
Short or hedge: If it hits 7950-8000 but can’t rise further and volume shrinks with stagnation, lightly short with stop loss at 8050, target back to 7800 or even 7730.
#USJulyPPIFlat #S&P500ClosesAtAllTimeHigh #SanDiskStockGainsExpandTo11%
$SNDK $SPY $BTC Some friends think that Bitcoin has already formed a weekly-level bullish divergence, so it shouldn't fall any further. Although the drop in June broke the new low from February, it quickly recovered above 60K. The previous 58K is considered the lowest point, and the 60K level has been very resilient, not effectively broken for half a year, which is probably the bottom of this bear market.
However, I don't think so. It's true that there is a weekly-level bullish divergence, but a larger-level bullish divergence can still be superimposed on this. I believe the 53K realized price is very likely to be broken. This price indicator has always been broken in past bear markets, and I believe this time will be no exception!
Let's wait and see! The bear market requires everyone to have enough patience! Midday Report: Both BTC and ETH are deadlocked, tonight at 8:30 PM the “terrifying data” will decide life or death!
BTC current price 63381, ETH 1886. From 9:30 AM until now, the market looks like it’s been pressure-point locked—BTC stuck firmly between 63200-63600, ETH vibrating at pixel-level between 1881-1890. This isn’t a lack of direction, it’s forced silence before the storm; both bulls and bears are holding back their big moves.
Reviewing this week’s data chain: Nonfarm payrolls down 23,000, CPI meets expectations at 3.4%, PPI below expectations at 4.7%. The inflation card has been played out, but the market still hesitates to follow through because the weakening PPI can be interpreted as either cooling inflation or economic slowdown. The market is now split into two irrational camps, just waiting for tonight’s retail data to deliver a loud slap.
This is the weight of the “terrifying data.” Strong retail → confirms soft landing, bears disarm on the spot, risk assets rocket; weak retail → recession confirmed, bulls stampede to escape, the 63000 support instantly stripped away.
BTC is now clinging to the 63000 edge, barely surviving; the early morning dip to 62818 was its last stubborn move. Tonight is the second test: if it holds, it’s a “wrongly killed golden pit”; if it doesn’t, 62000 becomes the next mass grave. Same for ETH, 1870 is the lifeline, 1900 is the high-pressure line.
Conclusion: Before 8:30 PM, all fluctuations are noise, keep your hands off and don’t be cannon fodder. 63000 is the dignity line, 63600 is today’s iron ceiling. Tonight will settle all this week’s suspense at once—either a collective rise to the sky or a fall to the ground, be ready to be carried away.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温
#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 I am Cige, a 22% rise in ten days, and the KOSPI went straight from ICU to KTV.
Samsung and SK Hynix both surged over 5%, with programmatic buying driving trading halts.
This desperate counterattack is powered by three engines simultaneously.
The first engine is AI capital expenditure reigniting hardware demand. Global tech giants continue to pour money into AI infrastructure according to their latest earnings reports. A Jefferies strategist said, "We remain confident in our overweight positions in the AI sector, with strong earnings season performance and no signs of capital expenditure slowdown." AI is expanding into more practical applications, significantly boosting memory chip demand, while supply capacity is limited, creating a clear bottleneck. Samsung and SK Hynix stock prices have both risen over 100% year-to-date in 2026. This rebound indicates that capital is reaffirming the long-term logic of AI storage.
The second engine is the return of foreign capital. Singapore's sovereign wealth fund Temasek is reportedly planning its first direct purchase of Samsung and SK Hynix, believing that storage chips in the AI supply chain remain undervalued. Temasek's current AI-related investments account for about 6% of its overall portfolio, with plans to increase to a maximum of 15% by 2031. If finalized, this would be Temasek's first direct investment in the Korean stock market. This sends a strong signal to the market that long-term capital is beginning to treat storage as a core component of AI infrastructure.
The third engine is internal valuation repair and easing deleveraging pressure. In July, leveraged chip stock positions were liquidated en masse, triggering trading halts and wiping out billions of dollars from Korean retail investors. Recently, the Korean government tightened regulations on single-stock leveraged ETFs, easing deleveraging pressure. Samsung and SK Hynix have forward P/E ratios of only 4.2 and 3.6 respectively, far below the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index components' average of over 21. Th. $BTC $OKB $SNDK #芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22% Urgent midday update——Both BTC and ETH are lying flat playing dead, and the retail data at 8:30 PM tonight will be the final hammer to seal the verdict for this week.
BTC current price 63381, ETH 1886. From 9:30 AM until now, BTC has been stuck in a very narrow range between 63200-63600, while ETH is drawing lines in place between 1881-1890. The volatility is so low it’s like the network cable was unplugged—don’t be fooled, this isn’t directionless, the whole market is holding its breath waiting for a bullet.
Looking back at this week’s data chain: Non-farm payrolls -23,000, CPI 3.4% perfectly matching expectations, PPI 4.7% below expectations—this means inflation is basically settled, but why is the market still reluctant to pick a side? Because the slight positive from easing inflation is completely offset by the panic of a “recession countdown.” A weakening PPI can mean either a cure or a critical illness. Both scenarios are laid out on the table, and tonight’s retail sales data is the hand that will flip the table.
This is the essence of the “terrifying data” —
Retail data holds up → soft landing narrative confirmed: inflation down, consumption intact, rate hike expectations dissolve, risk assets should stand up and applaud.
Retail data disappoints → recession confirmed: money will flee risk assets immediately, and 63000 will most likely be pressed down again.
BTC’s current stance is dramatic: the dip to 62818 in the early morning took five hours to climb back, now barely holding above 63000 catching its breath. This is the stronghold the bulls fought for and the bet for tonight—if data is good, this is a golden pit after a wrong kill; if data is bad, that 62818 early morning low is as fragile as paper. ETH is the same logic, the narrow gate between 1870-1890, which way it opens depends entirely on tonight’s number.
My attitude is straightforward: before 8:30 PM tonight, all fluctuations are just scratching an itch. The 63000 line has already been hunted once, and tonight it will face a second trial—if it holds, the bulls win this round; if not, see you at 62000.
Keep an eye on these lines: BTC support at 63000 is a psychological Maginot Line, 62818 is the early morning live test low, if broken, look directly at 62000. Resistance at 63600 is the repeatedly failed neckline today, 64000 is the weekly ceiling. ETH support at 1870, resistance at 1900.
At 8:30 PM tonight, the week’s suspense will be decisively resolved.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温
#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点
Tonight at 8:30 PM, bayonets will see blood#CPI and PPI Cooling Down Simultaneously, Interest Rate Hike Disagreements Widen What exactly is happening with Bitcoin? Where will it go? Combining current macroeconomic data and internal Federal Reserve policy disagreements, Bitcoin $BTC's future trend is at a critical juncture of intense bullish and bearish forces battling.
Inflation cooling and weakening rate hike expectations are bullish for Bitcoin's rise
1. Improved macro liquidity expectations: Both the US July PPI and CPI data came in below expectations, and initial jobless claims slightly increased, indicating that inflation pressures on both the production and consumption sides are easing simultaneously. This directly reduces the urgency for the Fed to raise rates in September, and the market pricing for a September rate hike has significantly cooled.
Lower interest rate expectations typically push down US Treasury yields and weaken the dollar. For interest-free speculative assets like Bitcoin, the reduced cost of holding funds and expectations of marginal liquidity easing will greatly enhance its allocation appeal, likely driving a price rebound.
However, sticky core inflation and hawkish disagreements limit Bitcoin's upside
Although overall inflation has declined, the core final demand PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services accelerated month-over-month to 0.4%, and prices for core components like medical services remain firm. This indicates a risk of long-term inflation entrenchment, and the Fed has not fully lifted its alert.
The Fed's internal stance is sharply divided, with hawkish officials like Harker still strongly calling for rate hikes to curb economic overheating. This policy outlook uncertainty makes it difficult for the market to form a sustained easing consensus. Until clear signals of rate cuts or a pause in hikes emerge, Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, will face constrained upside.
Currently, Bitcoin's trend is unlikely to break out into a one-sided market and will most likely maintain a wide-range oscillation pattern. In the short term, Bitcoin's price will be highly sensitive to two core variables:
1. Energy prices and geopolitical situation: Oil price fluctuations triggered by Middle East tensions are key to future inflation trends. If oil prices strengthen again and pass through to consumers, inflation expectations may rise again, triggering Bitcoin sell-offs.
2. Subsequent core data verification: The market is awaiting new rounds of inflation and employment data at the end of August and early September. If subsequent data (such as core PCE) remain moderate, Bitcoin may leverage this to break through; conversely, if inflation rebounds, it may face correction pressure.
📈 Key Resistance Levels (Upward Barriers)
1. First resistance: $26,000 - $26,500 range
* Logic: This is the short-term rebound high after recent PPI and CPI data releases when market sentiment initially recovered. This level accumulates some short-term profit-taking and trapped positions; if bullish momentum is insufficient, the price is likely to be blocked and fall back here.
2. Second resistance: $27,500 - $28,000 range
* Logic: This is a more critical mid-term watershed. If dovish voices within the Fed prevail and subsequent macro data continue to confirm inflation cooling, Bitcoin needs to effectively break through this range to confirm the start of a new upward trend. Failure to hold above $28,000 will still define the overall trend as "wide-range oscillation."
📉 Key Support Levels (Downward Defenses)
1. First support: $25,000 - $25,500 range
* Logic: This is a dense trading zone of short-term bullish and bearish battles and the market's first psychological defense line when digesting hawkish Fed comments. As long as this range is not effectively broken, the short-term bullish logic (improved liquidity expectations) remains.
2. Second support: $24,000 - $24,500 range
* Logic: This is a very strong macro bottom support. If subsequent inflation data unexpectedly rebound or Fed officials release more hawkish signals than expected causing market panic, the price may test this level. This position usually sees long-term allocation funds and institutional buying, serving as a key bottom line to judge whether Bitcoin has a trend reversal.
* Handling a range-bound market: Before the Fed's September rate decision, Bitcoin will most likely oscillate widely between $25,000 and $27,500. It is recommended to adopt a "range trading" strategy—buy near support and reduce positions near resistance, avoiding blind chasing or panic selling in the middle.
* Watch macro signals closely: The effectiveness of technical levels highly depends on macro fundamentals. Pay close attention to changes in the US 10-year Treasury yield and Middle East situation (crude oil prices). If macro conditions suddenly change, adjust support and resistance expectations promptly based on breakouts. $BTC #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 $BTC $ETH
Let’s talk about something that feels genuinely abnormal:
CPI and PPI have both cooled down—so why aren’t Bitcoin and Ethereum moving higher?
The most unusual thing over the past two days isn’t the weakness itself.
It’s that the bullish macro news has already arrived, yet the market still looks half-asleep.
CPI YoY eased from 3.5% to 3.4%, while core CPI fell to 2.5%. PPI was even softer than expected, with the monthly reading coming in at 0%.
Under the usual market script, cooling inflation should reduce rate pressure and give risk assets at least some upside momentum.
But what happened?
$BTC briefly reached around $63,998, only to fade back toward $63,450.
$ETH touched roughly $1,899.48, but slipped back toward $1,886.
It pumps for a moment…
Then immediately gives it back.
That tells me the current problem may not be the macro environment itself.
Macro has temporarily reduced the fear of further rate pressure—but it hasn’t created enough fresh buying demand in crypto.
At the same time, AI and storage stocks in the U.S. are attracting a significant amount of risk appetite.
Meanwhile, BTC and ETH can’t even hold the gains from favorable inflation data.
That looks more like profit-taking on the rebound than aggressive accumulation.
So I’m not going to call a trend reversal simply because PPI came in soft.
For now, I’m watching two confirmations:
🔹 BTC: Can it reclaim and actually hold above $64,000, rather than briefly spike above it and immediately fall back?
🔹 $ETH : Can it close above $1,900 and turn that level into support?
If neither can hold, then the CPI and PPI data may have done little more than give the market a temporary chance to breathe.
And honestly, the most frustrating market isn’t the one where bad news arrives.
It’s the one where good news arrives—and your coins still refuse to go up. 😅
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 $BTC volatility has officially entered the danger zone.
90D realized volatility is sitting at just the 8th percentile of its 4-year range, while the 180D closing range is at the 12th percentile. DVOL is compressed too.
In other words: $BTC is coiling.
Historically, these extreme low-volatility regimes tend to resolve within 30–60 days. The bigger question isn’t when the range breaks, but which direction it breaks.
Upside breaks have overwhelmingly been sustained, with strong forward median returns.
Downside breaks? Much more mixed including several violent reversals.
So the real catalyst may not be technical at all.
Liquidity decides the direction.
BTC is getting ready to pick a side. SpaceX enters a phase of corporate value reassessment following Musk's AI remarks. Is this jump the disappearance of the aerospace premium or the beginning of the AI infrastructure premium? $SPCX surged immediately after Musk's company-wide meeting remarks, reaching an intraday high of $149.6 and closing at $146.15, up 9.65%. The rise from the recent low is about 40%. Musk stated that next month's AI revenue will surpass all other SpaceX business segments combined and set a goal to expand AI computing capacity to 10GW by the end of next year. He calculated that AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's corporate value within the next five years. The core of this statement is that the basis for corporate value evaluation itself has changed. The market has started applying a new framework, viewing SpaceX not as a launch vehicle and satellite communications company under the traditional aerospace valuation, but as a space-based AI computing infrastructure company. The multiples received when the same company is classified into a different industry can structurally differ.Anthropic is reportedly targeting an October IPO at a $2T valuation, potentially the largest IPO ever.
Just 5 years old, yet its valuation could exceed $BTC’s market cap by 50% and nearly match the entire crypto market.
Series H in May valued Anthropic at $965B with $47B ARR. Expected year-end ARR of $100–120B keeps its PS ratio near 20x, even as valuation doubles.
Valuation doubled. Multiple stayed flat. Fundamentals caught up.
AI keeps winning the capital race. When will crypto get its turn? Crossing of 3m–6m Realized Price and 1y–2y Realized Price:
(1) Near the bottoms of the 2015, 2018, and 2022 cycles, there was a phenomenon where the short-term chip cost (3m–6m) was lower than the long-term chip cost (1y–2y).
(2) This cost structure crossover usually occurs during the late bear market phase when chips are redistributed. This round's crossover appeared at the end of May 2026 and has lasted for about 78 days so far. Trump's crypto landscape is expanding, but is BTC gaining traffic or risk premium?
The latest financial disclosures show that companies related to Trump hold at least about $160 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum by the end of 2025, also involving World Liberty Financial and Trump-themed tokens. This is the first time the crypto industry has so deeply entered the balance sheet of a U.S. president's related business system.
For $BTC, this certainly brings huge traffic. When politicians openly embrace crypto, it makes more traditional investors believe digital assets have entered the mainstream agenda. But the market tends to overlook the other side: when policies, family business interests, and token projects get too close, regulatory friendliness and conflicts of interest may be priced in simultaneously.
BTC's strongest narrative in the past is that it does not rely on any single company or political figure. Trump can give it exposure, policy expectations, and institutional entry, but should not become part of BTC's credit itself. If market rallies rely entirely on one person's statements, the same political cycle can quickly create volatility.
So I prefer to see the Trump factor as an accelerator, not a foundation. What truly determines BTC's long-term position remains global liquidity, holding structure, network security, and institutional allocation. Political support can speed up adoption, but cannot replace the core independence of a decentralized asset.
$BTC can get attention from Trump, but its most valuable aspect is precisely what does not belong to Trump. $ETH Intraday ETH short-term analysis and layout, pending orders to be placed as pending
ETH current price 1884, currently oscillating in a range with repeated shakeouts, avoid subjective one-sided predictions, chasing highs and cutting losses is prone to repeated stop losses.
Multiple moving averages entangled on the four-hour chart, bullish and bearish forces balanced; price is at the 1870-1880 Fibonacci 38.2% key watershed, Bollinger Bands continue to contract, a turning point window is approaching.
MACD volume alternates without continuity, core resistance above at 1982, support below at 1730. Maintain a range-bound mindset before breaking above 1900 or falling below 1870.
Specific intraday short-term layout:
Buy on pullback at 1870, target 1890-1900
Sell on rebound at 1890, target 1870-1850 ETH Contract Review Today｜$1900, Bulls and Bears Still Fighting for Entry
ETH is currently fluctuating around $1900, with neither bulls nor bears fully in control in the short term. $1900 is the current sentiment dividing line; only after firmly holding above it is there a chance to test $1925 to $1950. If it falls back below $1880, the rebound structure might be broken. Today, the market continues to focus on ETF funds, staking yields, and on-chain activity, but whether the price can keep rising ultimately depends on whether the trading volume keeps up.
I lightly bought near $1885 today, took partial profits around $1910, and moved the stop loss for the remaining position to the cost line. ETH has been good at turning floating profits into fees recently, so I’m not planning to heavily bet on a breakout. Holding $1880, I’ll keep watching the resistance above; if it breaks down, I’ll withdraw first and observe again near #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #SandiskLongTermTargets The Next Crypto Rebound Could Be a Three-Act Play 🎭
The next major crypto rally may not be led by a single asset.
Instead, I think the rotation could potentially unfold in three stages:
$BTC → $ETH → $OKB
Act I: Bitcoin Takes the Lead
If crypto-friendly policies improve and global liquidity conditions become more supportive, institutional capital will likely move first into the most liquid and established assets.
That means Bitcoin could be the first beneficiary.
What to watch:
ETF flows, institutional positioning, and overall liquidity.
Act II: Ethereum Takes Center Stage
Once the market moves beyond simply holding crypto and starts focusing more heavily on stablecoins, RWA, on-chain finance, and AI agents, Ethereum’s role as financial infrastructure becomes increasingly important.
What to watch:
Stablecoin supply, RWA activity, staking, fees, and on-chain usage.
Act III: High-Beta Assets Join the Party
This is where $OKB and X Layer become particularly interesting.
If X Layer can demonstrate genuine growth in users, stablecoin inflows, application activity, gas consumption, and ecosystem revenue, $OKB could potentially capture the higher-beta phase of the rotation.
But there’s an important rule:
Narratives need evidence.
For $BTC → watch institutional and ETF flows.
For $ETH → watch stablecoins, RWA, staking, and on-chain activity.
For $OKB → watch X Layer users, gas demand, applications, and ecosystem revenue.
The ideal scenario is straightforward:
Policy creates confidence.
AI creates demand.
Stablecoins bring that demand on-chain.
Then:
BTC attracts the capital.
ETH powers the financial layer.
OKB benefits from ecosystem execution.
The real question isn’t which narrative sounds the best.
It’s:
Which part of this three-act story gets verified first? 👀
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 Today's $SNDK finally let out the breath it had been holding.
A few days ago, when I looked at SanDisk's earnings report, I was honestly a bit stunned.
Quarterly revenue was $8.97 billion, a 51% sequential increase; gross margin reached 84.6%, and the data center business doubled, yet the stock price still took a hit after the report came out.
My initial feeling was: if this isn't satisfying, what exactly does the market want?
Later I realized, what everyone worries about isn't whether SanDisk made money this quarter, but whether the money earned now can be sustained. After all, the storage industry has been too cyclical before—when prices rise, everyone acts like a stock genius, but once capacity comes online, profits can just disappear.
So what was truly useful at today's investor day wasn't management repeating "AI" over and over, but that they started answering a more practical question:
How can SanDisk stop being just a cyclical stock?
Currently, the company has signed new long-term agreements with 8 customers, covering about 50% of shipments expected in fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal 2028. Simply put, this means locking in some demand and prices in advance to avoid the "feast one year, famine the next" scenario.
More directly, management's targets for fiscal 2028 to 2030 include about 80% non-GAAP gross margin and about 50% adjusted free cash flow margin, and they stated that after completing necessary investments, they plan to return all remaining cash to shareholders.
Seeing this, I roughly understand why the market was willing to buy in today.
In the past, when people thought of $SNDK, they thought of NAND price increases; now the company wants everyone to believe it’s selling not just storage chips, but the "data warehouse" increasingly needed by AI data centers.
Of course, I still dare not shout about the stars and the sea just yet.
Long-term goals are still just goals; whether HBF can truly be implemented, whether long-term contracts can sustain profits, and how much gross margin remains after NAND prices fall all need to be verified quarter by quarter in future earnings reports.
But at least today, $SNDK showed the market a bit of change:
It may still be a cyclical stock, but behind this cycle is an AI engine that keeps generating data nonstop.
Compute power makes AI think; storage makes AI remember.
People used to only focus on the former; now finally someone is seriously looking at the latter.
$SNDK #美股全线走高，加密股领涨 #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #海力士推进NAND扩产，存储供给预期上升 SOL I am still bearish here, expecting to see 73.
Although the recent performance has been relatively strong, there is heavy resistance above, so it should be difficult to rise directly.
On the news front, SOL just broke below a descending wedge that lasted several weeks, with a breakout accompanied by about $8.8 million in ETF inflows, the strongest wave in recent months. At the same time, some short whales are observed covering their positions.
Additionally, there was a tense situation on the network side in the past few days, where 28.83% of staking nodes entered a delayed state, approaching the threshold that triggers a transaction finality pause, which is a technical concern.
On the chip front, the validator community is pushing two proposals (SIMD-0550, SIMD-0553) to significantly increase the daily burn amount from about 650 to up to 9,000. Currently, about 24.94 million SOL are staked in support, but it still needs to reach about 40 million to meet the 15% voting threshold, with results expected before 8/18.The largest on-chain $BTC short
Actually closed out 2,136 BTC short positions directly
Even more intense
After closing the shorts, immediately flipped to long
40x leverage
200.82 BTC long positions
Worth $12.74 million
Honestly
When a whale of this scale flips direction
Market sentiment instantly changes
You might still be wondering whether to stay bearish
But they have already started siding with the bulls
This kind of news easily stirs up people's mentality
Because when big money moves
Retail investors can't help but speculate
Is the trend really changing?
—
Meanwhile, looking at my own $ETH long
I’m really struggling to hold back😭
100x full position long
Position size 635,300 U
Margin 6,353.82 U
Entry price 1619.71
Current mark price 1884.54
Profit directly at 89,290 U
Return rate 1635.07%
Really
This kind of trade is no longer about making money or not
When you watch that number keep jumping
It feels somewhat unreal
From 1619 all the way to 1884
Any pullback in between
Could have shaken you out
But as long as you hold on
The profit is on a completely different scale
And the liquidation price is still at 735.72
Looking at this trade now, it’s honestly a bit crazy😭
—
Looking at $APR again
This token remains as wild as ever
Current price 0.5270
Up 5.39% today again
24h high 0.5586
Low 0.4338
Previously climbed steadily from around 0.1867
Reached a high of 0.6296
Though there were fluctuations
The long-term trend never weakened
7-day increase 148.67%
30-day increase 141.50%
90-day increase 256.45%
180-day increase 416.20%
The craziest thing about this token is
You think it’s already risen a lot
But it somehow always manages to climb a bit more😭
—
$SNDK is still strong here too
Currently 1550.35
Though it dropped 1.25% today
It still holds well at the high level
24h high 1579.55
Low 1330.78
Previously rose from around 1191
Then surged to 1579
Even with some pullback now
It looks more like consolidation at a high level
Not a direct weakening
7-day increase 27%
90-day increase 11.31%
Though 30-day is still -2.04%
But the recent rally has been very strong
If you say it’s not strong
That would definitely be unfair
But if you ask whether it’s still worth chasing now
It really makes people hesitate😭
—
So after looking at these charts today
My biggest feeling is
Market sentiment is getting more and more restless
Whales closing shorts and flipping to longs
$ETH long profits hitting 89,000 U
$APR continuing to stay strong at highs
$SNDK hasn’t truly weakened after pullback
At times like this, the hardest thing isn’t understanding the market
But whether you dare to hold on
Some got off early
Some are still hesitating whether to chase
Some watch profits grow and feel more nervous than anyone😭
Sometimes the market is just like this
When the big gains are right in front of you
You might not be able to hold on
When the strongest tokens are right in front of you
You might not dare to get on board
#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 $BTC miners are starting to feel the pressure.
The share of Bitcoin miner revenue coming from transaction fees has fallen to just 0.71%, almost matching the historical low of 0.69% recorded in December 2015.
But there’s an important difference.
Back then, Bitcoin was trading around $394, and the block subsidy was 25 BTC. Today, the block reward is only 3.125 $BTC.
So comparing the fee ratio alone can be misleading.
What’s more interesting is the network hashrate.
The 7-day average BTC hashrate has fallen roughly 23%, from a peak near 1,150 EH/s in October 2025 to around 886 EH/s.
During the same period, $BTC dropped from approximately $124,700 to $63,400, almost a 50% decline.
And since mid-2025, transaction fees have largely remained around or below 1%.
That suggests on-chain activity and competition for block space remain relatively weak, leaving miners heavily dependent on block subsidies.
Still, I wouldn’t call this a “miner capitulation” just yet.
During periods of lower profitability, shutting down inefficient machines, reducing operating costs, and optimizing mining fleets is completely normal.
The more important question isn’t:
“How much did hashrate fall today?”
It’s whether we eventually see:
📈 Fee revenue reclaim and sustainably hold above 1%
📈 Network hashrate begin recovering
📈 On-chain demand strengthen
📈 Miner confidence improve
If those conditions start appearing together, that would be a much stronger signal that Bitcoin’s underlying network demand and miner economics are recovering.
For now, this looks more like miner margin pressure and optimization—not surrender.
$BTC
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000