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$500, 125 million USD, 40x leverage — this guy is just a needle away from going to zero
The address 0xff84 started battling $BTC fiercely from August 5, entering with 1,600 short positions, liquidation price at 64,889. On August 7, BTC bounced to 65,000, he cut 200 contracts losing 146,000. You think he backed down? No, he doubled down the more he lost. On August 12, he added 1,010 contracts, and by August 14, he was at 2,000 contracts. The liquidation price was pushed from 64,889 down to 63,532
Now BTC is hovering around 63,000, just $500 away from triggering his liquidation
What’s even crazier — he only has 2.7 million USD equity in his account. Using 2.7 million to leverage 125 million, if the price moves 0.8%, that 125 million will vanish instantly. This isn’t trading, it’s gambling with life
The external environment isn’t friendly either. CPI cooling down, rate hike probability dropped to 44%, S&P 500 hitting new highs, US stocks are partying, but BTC is stuck at 63,000. Fear & Greed Index at 29, in the “fear” zone.
But what are institutions doing? In the first week of August, ETFs bought 850 million, BlackRock alone took 694 million, and on August 11, another 50.2 million. Whales added 46,420 BTC over 60 days. Retail investors are panic selling, institutions are absorbing
And this guy is betting 125 million that BTC will break below 63,000
63,532, remember this number. As long as BTC stays above this, that 125 million will vanish
BTC at 63,000 is just $500 away from triggering the short squeeze. Every time he adds positions, he’s actually helping the bulls reduce the chance of a blowup. That 125 million fuel, better not waste it$BTC Grayscale estimate, if the related adjustments are implemented, by the end of 2031, ETH's annual supply inflation rate will drop to about 0.4%, close to BTC; SOL will be about 1.1%. In comparison, gold's annual supply growth rate is about 1.8%, and the US CPI inflation rate is about 3.3%.Analysis of $CAP and whether it will experience a pump and dump like $LAB and $BEAT?
CAP is Cap Protocol, which shares some similarities with LAB but also has clear differences.
Current situation of CAP
* Market cap is around $25 million to $40 million, classified as a small-cap project.
* Circulating supply is only about 15.6%, with a large amount of tokens still unreleased.
* After launch, it rose from about $0.01 to above $0.04, with a peak increase of over 300%.
* It is backed by an on-chain credit lending protocol, not a pure MEME. TVL once reached around $270 million.
Conditions for CAP to pump
1. Small market cap
* Market cap at the $30 million level.
* Capital inflow of $50 million to $100 million can generate huge price gains.
2. High listing standards
* Traded on major exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit, OKX.
* Liquidity is much stronger than many small coins.
3. RWA + on-chain credit sector
* The market is currently rotating through AI → RWA → financial infrastructure.
* If RWA becomes a hotspot again, CAP is likely to attract capital attention.
4. Relatively concentrated token distribution
* Low circulating ratio.
* Small amounts of capital can quickly push the price up.
Why I think it’s not as crazy as LAB
LAB is more of a sentiment-driven project.
CAP, on the other hand, has:
* Business operations
* TVL
* Institutional background
* Revenue logic
Projects like this generally:
* Experience smaller crashes
* Have slower pump speeds compared to pure MEME tokens
LAB’s kind of moves:
* 10x in a week
* 20x in a month
Are clearly less likely for CAP.
Is there suspicion of whale manipulation?
There is some suspicion, but not enough evidence to confirm.
Reasons:
* Circulating supply is only about 15%.
* FDV is more than 6 times the circulating market cap.
* Trading volume consistently accounts for 30% to 50% or more of market cap.
This structure often appears as:
Project team + market makers + early investors jointly influencing the price.
But currently, there is no obvious single-address manipulation evidence like you mentioned before with BEAT or RAVE.
My forecast for the next 6 months
If:
* BTC re-enters a major uptrend
* ETH breaks through key resistance levels
* RWA sector gains capital attention
Then CAP could:
* Conservatively: +50% to +100%
* Optimistically: +200% to +400%
* In an extreme FOMO scenario: 5 to 10 times
But if the market weakens: * CAP could also retrace more than 50%.
Overall:
CAP is a "small-cap project with fundamentals," with explosive potential lower than LAB but a higher probability of long-term survival.$SNDK Damn? Keep going long!
SanDisk's positive news this time is really strong! Profit targets continue to be raised.
Not just SNDK, Hynix $SKHYNIX also has ample cash flow, and shareholder return expectations are equally worth watching; plus, with AI storage demand continuing to heat up, Micron $MU is also benefiting from this industry boom.
The sector's logic now is no longer just a simple rebound, but a fundamental change is happening.
As long as the trend isn't broken, pullbacks are opportunities, and we continue to expect bullish momentum! 🔥Just saw a guy on-chain aggressively going long on ETH with 8x leverage, the vibe is intense.
The coin is ETH, 8x leverage, long position, entry price 1,868.50.
Position size is $467,125, quantity 250. This kind of trade looks intimidating, but don’t get reckless just because the position is large.
Experienced traders say it bluntly: 8x leverage isn’t for those who trade on emotion. If your direction is right, you profit; if wrong, you’re just feeding the market with your own capital.
Don’t treat a screenshot like a decree, and don’t automatically assume a big position means a guaranteed win. If you don’t understand, trade less; holding a losing position stubbornly is just foolish. If things go wrong, cut losses—don’t wait for the market to teach you a lesson.The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin's average coin dormancy has risen to 19 days and has crossed above the 365-day moving average for the first time since the beginning of the year. Earlier accumulated BTC is becoming active again. However, following the Coldcard hack incident, this increase may not be due to selling but rather related to a large amount of BTC being transferred to new wallets. Therefore, the current rise in dormancy should not be automatically interpreted as long-term holders distributing #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 $BTC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Today's $SNDK Surge Review: The long-suppressed bullish sentiment has fully erupted, and the storage cycle logic undergoes a qualitative change
Today, $SNDK finally released the long-accumulated bullish expectations in the market, sweeping away the previously suppressed gloom.
Honestly, after reading SanDisk's latest earnings report a few days ago, I was quite puzzled and even confused.
Quarterly revenue reached $8.97 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter surge; core gross margin soared to a staggering 84.6%, ranking among the top in the entire US tech sector; the most outstanding business segment, data center storage, doubled in growth, perfectly hitting the mainstream AI computing and AI storage track.
Logically, this performance would be an absolutely explosive earnings report in any cycle or market condition.
Yet the market completely rejected it, with the stock price continuing to face pressure and decline against the trend after the earnings release.
At that time, I believe everyone had the same question: with earnings maxed out, what exactly is the market still dissatisfied or afraid of?
Later, after thorough review, it became clear: the market’s real concern was never whether SanDisk is currently profitable, but whether the profits can be retained and sustained.
The storage industry is recognized in both A-shares and US stocks as an extremely strong cyclical sector, with a script unchanged for decades:
During price hikes, the entire industry wins easily, making huge profits regardless of effort, and everyone feels like a stock god;
Once global capacity is released and supply-demand reverses, prices quickly fall, industry profits evaporate instantly, and high margins and revenues all reset to zero.
But today's investor day completely rewrote this old logic.
The core and most valuable content of this conference was not the management’s repeated AI concepts or industry visions, but the solid solution to the storage industry’s biggest pain points: unstable profits, uncontrollable performance, and extreme cyclical volatility.
1. Brand-new NBM long-term volume lock agreements, fundamentally weakening cycle fluctuations
SanDisk officially launched a new business model, signing long-term lock-in agreements with 8 core industry customers, with a total contract value close to $94 billion and an average contract term exceeding 4 years.
The contract coverage is terrifying:
- Fiscal 2027: locking in 50% of global storage shipments
- Fiscal 2028: locking in 2/3 of global storage shipments
What does this mean?
It means that over the next two years, more than half of the company’s capacity, revenue, and orders are all locked in advance.
No longer relying on short-term market price hikes or speculation, no longer hostage to spot price volatility.
From the past "weather-dependent" cyclical game to a growth model with guaranteed minimums, certainty, and stable cash flow.
More importantly: this contract uses a fixed + floating two-way pricing mechanism with built-in price floor and ceiling protection.
Even if NAND flash prices fall and the industry enters a downturn, the company can still maintain an ultra-high gross margin level of around 80% based solely on the contract floor price.
Truly achieving: profit protection in downturns, incremental gains in upturns, completely breaking free from the extreme cycle fate of "feasting one year, starving the next."
2. Super performance targets for 2028-2030, redefining the industry ceiling
This investor day directly provided highly certain long-term guidance for the next three years, with explosive data far exceeding Wall Street institutional expectations:
1. Revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, fully matching the industry increment of AI storage computing power;
2. Non-GAAP gross margin stable at 80%, operating margin at 75%;
3. Adjusted free cash flow rate as high as 50%;
4. Capital expenditure only in the single digits relative to revenue, asset-light, high cash flow, high profit.
For a direct comparison: the current top AI leader Nvidia’s gross margin is just over 70%, while transformed SanDisk’s long-term steady-state gross margin directly crushes the AI computing leader.
The most significant shareholder return policy:
The company clearly stated that after completing necessary technology iterations and capacity investments, 100% of remaining cash will be returned to shareholders.
No more blind capacity expansion or inefficient cash burn, returning real profits in cold hard cash to the secondary market, completely reconstructing the valuation system.
3. Market perception completely reversed: from cyclical speculation to core AI asset
Previously, the market’s perception of $SNDK was summed up in one sentence: NAND prices go up, it goes up; NAND prices go down, it goes down.
Purely cyclical speculation and emotional trading.
After today, the market finally understands its core value:
AI’s underlying logic has two parts—computing power + storage.
Computing power enables AI to think, compute, and iterate;
Storage enables AI to remember, retain, and accumulate data.
In the past, capital crowded into computing power and GPUs, completely ignoring the long-term value of storage;
Now capital is correcting and flowing back, the long-overdue bull market for AI memory and AI storage officially begins its recovery rally.
4. Objective and rational review: positive developments are not the end, but the starting point for validation
Of course, I won’t blindly hype a starry sea or double-digit rallies.
All long-term targets and business model upgrades are still in the early implementation stage, with three core variables needing quarterly earnings verification:
1. Whether the long-term NBM contracts can be smoothly fulfilled, stably locking in shipments and profits for the next two years;
2. Whether the ultra-high 80% gross margin can truly hold when NAND spot prices fall later;
3. Whether the new HBF technology and AI storage solutions can continue to be implemented, delivering industry growth.
The cyclical nature won’t disappear instantly, but cycle volatility and earnings uncertainty have significantly decreased.
Final summary
Today’s surge in $SNDK is not a simple emotional rebound or news arbitrage, but a fundamental shift in valuation logic.
Before: capital speculated on cycles, price hikes, and short-term sentiment, rising fast and falling harder;
Now: capital speculates on growth, certainty, AI perpetual increments, and stable cash flow.
The selling pressure in the storage sector has been completely relieved, and the so-called "cycle peak and capacity oversupply" negative factors have been fully digested by the market.
Computing power rallies have long gone crazy, while the undervalued and oversold AI storage bull market is just getting started.
Waiting for subsequent earnings verification, this time, the storage market is no longer a short-term rebound but a new growth market with weakened cycles.
$SNDK #USStocksAllUp, crypto stocks leading the rise #StorageStockPressureEases, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #SKHynixAdvancesNANDExpansion, storage supply expectations rise My judgment
After breaking 63,000, the short-term outlook is bearish. But the 62,200-62,500 range is a previous dense chip area, so there will be resistance here.
What I fear most now is a slow decline—not a sharp rise or fall, but grinding a few hundred points every day, like boiling a frog in warm water. In this situation, positions should not be heavy, and stop losses must be strict. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 Good news is out, so why are BTC and ETH still not rising?🤔
CPI year-over-year is 3.4%, PPI has also cooled down, and market expectations for rate cuts are heating up again.
Logically, this should be positive for the crypto market.
But $BTC and $ETH are still trading sideways.
The reason is actually very simple: the market never trades the news, but the expectations.
$BTC is currently fluctuating around $63.5K, with daily volatility less than 500 points, and $64K remains a key resistance level.
$ETH is hovering near $1.89K, repeatedly testing $1,900 but never showing a truly strong breakout.
More importantly — the positive effect of this inflation cooling may have already been priced in by the market.
Those traders who bet on CPI in advance may now choose to take profits rather than chase higher.
There are about $140 million in options expiring tonight, which also means both bulls and bears might be more cautious.
📌 What really matters is not the headline, but the price reaction to the headline.
Good data ≠ guaranteed rise.
When the market is already crowded in the same direction ahead of time, the actual data release may instead become a liquidity event rather than the start of a new rally.
So now I’m more focused on:
Volume + price reaction + key resistance breakouts.
Not just blindly trading the news.
This is my personal market view and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #ETH #CPI #PPI #Crypto #Fed #SP500Hits7700 #SandiskLongTermTargets #AIInfraEarningsWatch
#DailyOrbit #Spot ETF fund divergence, BTC selling pressure remains
900 million selling, 865 million buying, $BTC is sideways
Monday's data is out. BTC ETF net outflow of 145 million, BlackRock IBIT outflow of 53.56 million in one day. ETH is fine, slight inflow of 5.3 million, didn't follow the run. Last week still shouting 865 million net inflow, Monday turned into 145 million outflow. ETF money moves faster than expected.
But that's not what I'm watching.
Someone is selling on-chain. A certain whale sold 7,513 BTC in the past 3 weeks, worth 487 million. Another suspected miner address transferred 6,494 BTC to Binance in nearly 20 days, average price 64,798. Together, 14,000 BTC, close to 900 million USD.
900 million selling pressure. Meanwhile, $ETH net inflow of 865 million. Both sides cancel out, breaking even.
BTC can't break above or below 65,000, not because of lack of buying, but because selling pressure is equally large. ETF is accumulating, whales are unloading. Coinbase premium index has been negative for 77 consecutive days, no local US buyers chasing the rally. Buying is on Wall Street, selling is on-chain, two markets fighting, price stuck in the middle.
One side is buying, the other is selling, both with real money.
My SPCX short is still open, floating profit long gone, flipping green then red again. But I haven't moved. This week is full of data and directions everywhere. Whether SPCX earnings or unlocks, compared to BTC's macro narrative, they're just side stories. An asset propped up by narrative ultimately depends entirely on BTC's movement. BTC sideways, it stays sideways. BTC falls, it falls harder. BTC rises, it may not follow. So I stay put. Waiting for Wednesday's CPI.
If CPI is low, ETF accelerates in, 65,000 becomes the floor. If CPI is high, ETF keeps running, 65,000 won't hold.
BTC sideways, my short remains. Wednesday will tell.On August 14, Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), announced the agenda for the inaugural meeting of the Innovation Advisory Committee, which will be held on August 20 in Washington. Participants will discuss topics related to crypto asset regulation, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets, with the meeting streamed live on the CFTC official website. The public can submit comments on meeting-related matters until August 27. Option 1 (Short & Bullish 🚀)
$XAUT Prediction 📈🚀
Gold ($XAUT) is holding a strong bullish trend! Currently trading at $XAUT 4,371.90.
Next Target: $XAUT 4,378 (Testing 24h high) 🎯
Breakout Target: $4,427+ (Re-testing local high) 🚀
Key Support: $4,331 🛡️
Bulls are staying strong above key moving averages! A push past $4,378 could test $4,427 soon! 🔥
Option 2 (Quick & Direct ⚡)
$XAUT Price Outlook 📊🔥
$XAUT is bouncing back strong at $4,371.90 after hitting a 24h low of $4,302.20! 📈 Watching the market quietly at night 🌙
$ETH is currently around 1880, fluctuating back and forth in a tug-of-war. There's no strong buying pressure on the upside, and the downside doesn't fall deeply either. The market occasionally throws in spikes to mess with traders. Holding leveraged positions can easily wear down your patience.
$BTC is the same, hovering around the 63000 level, lacking momentum to break upwards. The overall market sentiment is very cautious. Watching the outside markets heat up while this side remains stuck is a test of patience in this divergent market.
$SNDK is still in a high-level consolidation. The AI storage narrative remains. The market looks relatively strong, but there's a lot of profit-taking pressure at the top. Although the rise looks tempting, chasing recklessly can easily catch you at a pullback point. I dare not chase at this position.
I currently hold a light position and avoid frequent trades. In this choppy market, opening random orders can lead to repeated losses. The market is always there; there's no need to force yourself to catch every move. Stay calm and wait quietly for clearer signals from the market. Preserving your principal is more important than anything.
#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 #Tonight's CPI release, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten?
On the eve of the CPI release, gold and BTC have diverged
$XAU is at 4400. $BTC at 63800. One has risen for a month, the other has fallen for four days. Same macro background, two directions.
On the night non-farm payrolls turned negative, gold surged from 4216 to 4370, and BTC from 64111 to 65333, moving in sync. Both were betting on a rate cut. Then they started to diverge. Gold kept pushing up, 4400, 4448, with no turning back. BTC slid from 65000 down to 63800, a 1500-point drop, as if someone was slowly draining it.
Why?
Gold’s logic is simple—weak non-farm payrolls mean rate cut expectations remain, the dollar weakens, gold rises. No other reason needed. One data point is enough.
BTC is different. At the 65000 level, it was under pressure from two forces simultaneously. $ETH was buying, whales were selling. The funds on both sides balanced out, and the price stayed flat for a few days. Then it started to fall. It’s not that buying was insufficient, but that selling was too large. Last week, ETF net inflows were 865 million, but 900 million was sold on-chain. As much bought as sold, a futile effort.
Gold doesn’t have 900 million in on-chain selling pressure, no whales unloading, no miners transferring. Gold’s supply won’t suddenly increase by 900 million in sell orders. BTC will.
Abraxas Capital’s wallet is also active. In the past three days, it moved 25,400 XAUT, worth 110 million USD. Funds are moving into gold, withdrawing from BTC.
Tonight’s CPI will decide who laughs last. If the data is weak, rate cut expectations will be confirmed, and BTC might be pulled back to reunite with gold. If the data is strong, rate hike expectations bounce back, gold might be suppressed, and BTC could continue downward.
Gold and BTC have temporarily diverged. Tonight’s CPI will decide whether they come back together or drift further apart. On August 14, Vida, founder of Formula News, stated on his personal channel that he had reduced 1/3 of his Bitcoin position near $63,000. "There is still a bull market behind Bitcoin, but its current narrative is completely overshadowed by AI, and no new narrative is foreseeable in the next 1-2 years; the remaining core narrative is fiat currency replacement / hedge against fiat depreciation. The next bull market will depend on problems arising with US debt or the dollar, but such issues are not expected in the short term; before the next bull market, global assets will likely undergo a revaluation first; therefore, he expects to buy back this position at a cheaper price within 1-3 years (expected $45,000 - $55,000)." $BTC $SPCX Why is it falling
1. It rose quite a bit earlier, short-term funds are cashing out
Recently, it rode the concept of AI data center cooling, and the stock price surged, accumulating a lot of profit-taking positions. Tonight, no bad news about the company itself was released, but profit-taking chose to cash out, directly pushing the price down
2. Valuation is already high, the market starts to find it expensive
Performance is good, financial reports exceeded expectations, and the full-year target was raised, benefiting from data center cooling. But the P/E ratio is already at a relatively high level
The market is conflicted: the positive factors have been reflected in the previous rise, and some future good expectations are already priced in. Without new catalysts, funds are unwilling to chase higher
3. Funds are moving to other AI hardware stocks
Funds are flocking to storage stocks like $SNDK. Also part of the AI industry chain, funds are making choices, flowing out from $SPCX to chase targets with stronger current catalysts. Funds switch back and forth between sectors
4. This is a normal sector correction, not a fundamental problem
No new financial reports or negative announcements. The business itself is fine, orders and performance are still okay, just the short-term speculative heat has cooled down
Summary
$SPCX's drop tonight is not due to company problems, but profit-taking + high valuation + funds being attracted away by the AI sector.
Its logic is that AI data centers require a large amount of cooling equipment; however, the stock price has already risen in advance, so without new positive news, a correction is likely. Going forward, the focus is on whether data center capital expenditure can continue and support the current high valuation
#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 The US dollar index fell 0.43%, gold rose 1.05%, stocks closed at elevated levels, except $BTC fell 1.75%. Today, the market put both "risk avoidance" and "risk" on the table, but Bitcoin didn't hold firm anywhere. Outline - 🔍 Weakening Dollar, Gold Hits New Highs, Risk Assets Are Weakening - 📉 Why Doesn't Bitcoin Become a Safe Haven? - ⚔️ What is the capital chasing? $SNDK and $SKHYNIX Movements – 🎯 What Do Traders Do? Today's snapshot $BTC 62,560, -1.75% $ETH 1,866, -1.17% $QQQ +0.24%, $SPY +0.06% $DXY -0.43%, $GLD +1.05% $IBIT (BTC spot ETF) -1.13% VIX 14.51, -0.89% US crude oil (USO) 124.305, -0.58% Dow 53,833.16, -0.01% 1. US dollar weakens, gold hits new high Risk assets fell 0.43% on the dulling 🔍 $DXY, while $GLD rose 1.05%. This is not panic aversion, as the VIX is only at 14.51, down 0.89%. On the stock side, $QQQ +0.24%, $SPY +0.06%, Dow -0.01%, all dull at high levels, unable to rise or fall. Retail sales data in the news line lowered the marketAn Investor Day puts SanDisk back in the spotlight: The biggest opportunity in the AI era might not just be GPUs
Many focus on Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google competing for AI entry points, but overlook a more fundamental question:
As AI develops, who will store all this data?
On August 13, SanDisk (SNDK) Investor Day sent a strong signal, prompting the market to reassess the long-term value of this storage company. After the announcement, SanDisk's stock surged about 13.7%, with capital flowing back into the storage sector. The company revealed growth plans for the coming years, expecting FY2028 to FY2030 revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth, with an adjusted gross margin target of about 80% and an operating margin target of about 75%. It also stated that after completing future business investments, excess cash will be returned to shareholders.
This rise appears on the surface to be a valuation re-rating driven by financial targets, but the underlying logic is deeper.
The AI industry is entering its next phase.
In the past two years, the market's main focus has been computing power.
Who owns stronger GPUs controls AI training capabilities.
But as AI models grow larger and data volumes increase rapidly, storage is becoming the new infrastructure bottleneck.
From cloud data centers to enterprise AI applications and future edge computing, massive amounts of data need to be written, read, and stored long-term quickly. Storage is no longer just traditional hardware but is becoming part of AI infrastructure.
This is why the market is starting to refocus on SanDisk.
Historically, the biggest pain point in the storage industry has been cyclical fluctuations.
Profits explode when prices rise, then quickly fall when supply and demand are imbalanced, leading investors to assign low valuations.
But the message SanDisk released this time is not just about emphasizing industry prosperity; it aims to change the market's traditional perception of storage companies.
The company emphasizes multi-year customer cooperation models to improve revenue stability while benefiting from growing AI data center demand. Previous financial reports showed significant growth in SanDisk's data center-related business, and the company continues to push new storage technologies for high-performance applications.
This signals a change:
The storage industry may be transitioning from a "cyclical manufacturing" sector to an "AI infrastructure supplier."
This is why capital is willing to revalue it.
Previously, investors viewed SanDisk through the lens of NAND price cycles; now the market is starting to consider the data demand cycle in the AI era.
But caution is still needed.
Stock price increases do not guarantee all expectations will be met.
The biggest current market question remains:
Can high profit margins be sustained?
The storage industry has experienced multiple supply-demand cycles historically. When supply recovers and prices fall, profit margins often come under pressure. If future AI storage demand growth falls short of expectations or competition intensifies, the risk of valuation adjustments remains.
So what truly determines SanDisk's long-term value is not a single Investor Day but whether it can prove two things in the coming quarters.
First, whether AI demand can truly sustain storage upgrades.
Second, whether the company can reduce traditional storage industry cyclicality through long-term customer cooperation.
My view is that this AI market rally is entering a new phase.
The first phase focused on GPUs and model companies;
The second phase saw catch-up in cloud computing, power, optical communications, and other infrastructure;
The future third phase will likely involve storage, networking, and data management—these "hidden infrastructures."
Because AI is not just about training models; more importantly, it’s about processing massive data.
Without sufficient data storage and transmission capabilities, AI commercialization will struggle to take off.
Therefore, what truly matters about SanDisk's recent rise is not how much it gained in one day but that capital is starting to redefine its identity.
It is no longer just a cyclical storage stock but is trying to become an important participant in the AI infrastructure chain.
Of course, long-term goals ultimately need to be validated by performance.
In the coming years, if AI data growth continues to exceed expectations, the storage industry may undergo a structural upgrade; but if demand slows, the market will reassess whether high profit targets are reasonable.
The core question now is no longer "Is there a bubble in AI?"
But rather, who will be the next batch of companies that truly profit from the AI wave?
SanDisk is competing for a spot on that list.
$SNDK $OKB $ETH
#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 #TonightCPIRelease, will the September rate hike pricing change?
CPI met expectations, and the market chose the most boring outcome
The data is out. Overall CPI annual rate is 3.4%, core CPI annual rate is 2.5%, month-on-month 0.1%. Not too high, not too low, neither cold nor hot, right in the middle of expectations.
The market waited a week, only to get a "nothing changed" number.
$XAU didn’t break above 4417, $BTC didn’t crash below 63800. Both bulls and bears were holding their breath waiting for CPI to give direction, but the data came out and both sides were left empty-handed.
What does a CPI that meets expectations mean? It means the September rate hike expectations won’t heat up significantly, nor cool down significantly. CME data shows the probability of keeping rates unchanged is about 52%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike is about 48%—a near 50-50 split, same as before the data.
The day nonfarm payrolls turned negative, half the table was flipped; CPI didn’t flip the other half, nor did it set the table straight. The market continues sideways, waiting for the next data.
Bitcoin is still oscillating between 63500-65000. Gold is grinding around 4400. ETH is hovering near 1900. Direction? No direction.
The only change is: the sideways period will be extended. CPI didn’t provide direction, so the market can only keep waiting—waiting for PPI, waiting for retail sales, waiting for the next Fed statement.
Positions remain. No movement.
After waiting a month for data, the market chose the most boring answer. So, keep waiting. The 10-year US Treasury yield firmly stays above 4.6%, reported at 4.63% on August 13. Although it slightly retreated from 4.72% on August 10, the 52-week high of 4.75% was just half a month ago — interest rates clearly have no intention of coming down. The short-term 2-year yield is at 4.2%, meaning money parked in money market funds can earn a solid 4% return effortlessly, which is exactly where DOGE finds itself most awkward right now.
As of the evening of August 14, $DOGE was priced at $0.0694, down about 1% in the past 24 hours. The $0.07 level was briefly regained but lost again, with resistance around $0.072 and support at $0.065. The entire market is in a slow decline; panic is absent, but greed has long since vanished.
The problem with $DOGE has never been falling prices, but rather "there’s no reason for it to fall nor to rise." It has no staking yield, no ETF to provide continuous capital inflow, no DeFi ecosystem locking tokens; holding it is purely a bet on price. When the risk-free rate is above 4%, the bar for this bet is set very high: DOGE must outperform US Treasuries over a year, with gains covering volatility risk premiums, and its performance over the past year clearly hasn’t delivered. In contrast, BTC at least has ETFs and the halving narrative supporting institutional funds, ETH has both staking yields and ETFs as dual support, and SOL’s ecosystem maintains a staking rate above 60% year-round — these assets have reasons to "stay in the game" in a high interest rate environment, DOGE does not. Its token distribution structure determines its fate; DOGE’s holdings heavily depend on retail sentiment, and retail investors are precisely the group most sensitive to opportunity cost and most easily drawn away by a 4% risk-free return.
What’s more troublesome is the unsupportive macro backdrop. WTI crude oil is above $80, up nearly 18% in 30 days. Although inflation expectations are suppressed near 2.2%, this oil price transmission chain prevents the Fed from easing. The federal funds rate remained at 3.63% in July, and the market keeps pushing back rate cut pricing. As long as rates remain high, the "lottery ticket" nature of meme coins will continue to depreciate — because the pricing anchor for lottery tickets is the market’s excess liquidity, not faith.
The core contradiction is clear: for DOGE to turn around, what it needs is not just a tweet from Elon Musk, but a substantial drop in the risk-free rate or the emergence of applications that can reconstruct its cash flow narrative. Until either of these happens, every day at 4.6% is a silent bill for holders. Those who truly believe in it might want to think carefully about which lottery ticket they are paying for. When I opened the short position on $SPCX , the idea was simple: at 116.94, with 75x leverage, I thought it would drop.
But it kept pushing up, from 116 to 139, then from 139 to 147, with almost no decent pullbacks in between.
Today it peaked at 149.47, current price 146.92, floating loss over 300 U, still holding.
On the same token, I also ran a grid strategy, going long 10x, in the 100-250 range, average price 134.31, placed 80 orders, total investment 18 U.
The grid earned 7.8 U, the short lost over 300 U.
Having both long and short orders on the same token feels like hedging, but also like battling myself.
$OKB rose 8% today, from 94 to 105, breaking out with volume, mainstream coins are moving steadily, no positions.
$TRUST surged 14%, from 0.05 to 0.063, with only 3.92 million U in volume, a small cap drawing lines, chasing in is just taking the bag.
The losing positions are still held, and I haven’t touched any of the rising coins.
$SPCX rose from 116 to 146, a 30-point increase, the direction was clear long ago, I just didn’t follow it.
The position is still open, not closed.
Waiting for a pullback opportunity to cut losses and exit.
The direction no longer matters; what matters is how this trade ends.SanDisk Earnings Report: Summary in One Sentence
SanDisk $SNDK is now in "money printing machine" mode — fiscal year 2026 revenue more than doubles, net profit jumps directly from a loss to $11.43 billion, with a gross margin as high as 84.6%, making it a "super-profit myth" in the semiconductor industry.
Metric Number Year-over-Year Change
Full-year Revenue $20.25 billion +175%
Full-year Net Profit $11.43 billion Last year loss of $1.64 billion
Q4 Quarterly Revenue $8.97 billion +372%
Q4 Gross Margin 84.6% Only 26.2% same period last year
Full-year Earnings Per Share $73.76 Last year loss per share $11.32
• Cash: Holding $4.76 billion
• Stock Buyback: Board approved a $14 billion buyback plan (company total market cap about $223 billion), equivalent to buying back and canceling 6% of shares
SanDisk is now the "shovel seller" of AI infrastructure, riding the dual tailwinds of rising storage chip prices and AI demand explosion, with performance rocketing. But whether the super-profits can continue depends on when industry capacity catches up. Still strong in the short term, but beware of cycle reversals in the long term.
#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%
99% is AI, 1% is rockets, my short position is in between
$SPCX has reached 146, up 35% from 108. My short position is floating a loss of 300U, -1925%, still holding.
Elon Musk spoke. At the all-hands meeting, he said AI revenue is expected to surpass all other businesses combined by September. By the end of next year, 10 gigawatts of computing power, which according to his estimates corresponds to 300 billion to 500 billion in annual revenue. In five years, AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's value.
99% is AI, 1% is rockets.
What does 500 billion in annual revenue mean? Nvidia's revenue last year was 60 billion. An AI business that hasn't even commercialized yet aims to reach 500 billion in five years. This is not growth, it's a species change.
But the market believes it. From 108 to 149, a 40% increase, all fed by Musk's words. Over a month ago, SPCX at 228 was about rockets and Starlink; now at 146, SPCX is about AI and 500 billion. The same ticker, a different story, and the price comes back.
Changing the story doesn't need financial reports, one meeting is enough.
I won't judge whether this assessment is right or wrong. But I am sure of one thing—the story can pump the price, but it can also crash it. The story doesn't need to be realized, the market just needs to believe it. But prices supported by stories need numbers to verify.
My short position is still there, not because I don't believe in AI, but because I don't believe 500 billion will come out of one all-hands meeting. I'm waiting for financial reports, waiting for orders, waiting for numbers to speak.
He said 99% is AI, I'm still waiting in that 1%. Stories can pump prices, but they can't be eaten as food. $SPCX BTC is no longer lying flat; Circle is personally stepping in to "find a job" for it.
Here's something worth pondering these past couple of days: Circle is launching something called cirBTC, a 1:1 pegged wrapped asset of BTC, planning to deploy it on Ethereum and their own Arc chain. A company that makes money by issuing USDC is now entering the wrapped BTC space, which itself indicates one thing — the BTCFi pie has shifted from being a "concept" to a "business."
Let's first look at the current players in the field. WBTC remains the leader, with 128,800 BTC locked inside, accounting for about 81% of the market share; cbBTC holds around 19%. In the entire lending market, there is already over $7 billion worth of wrapped BTC at work — being collateralized, lent out, and integrated into various yield strategies. Circle entering the scene now is not just to join the hype; they aim to make "BTC on-chain yield" a compliant, institutional-grade product.
What does this mean for the market? On a larger scale, the BTC narrative is shifting gears. In recent years, BTC's label was singular: digital gold, buy and hold, wait for appreciation. The downside of this asset is no cash flow; if the price doesn't rise, you're just watching. Wrapped BTC's role is to activate this dead money — you take WBTC or cbBTC to the lending market as collateral, borrow stablecoins to reallocate, or simply earn lending interest. BTC provides credit, ETH provides the use cases; these two used to operate separately, but now for the first time, they truly interlock on the capital flow level.
Looking at the market situation, it's even more interesting. As of 9:30 PM on August 14, $BTC is priced around $63,478, basically flat in 24 hours with a slight drop of 0.01%, down 1.16% over the past week, stuck in the $62,000 to $66,000 range for five weeks. The main support lies between $62,000 and $62,800; the first resistance is between $64,000 and $65,500; $66,000 to $67,000 is the critical zone that will decide the direction. The Fear & Greed Index is only 30, indicating fear in the market, yet there is over $10 billion worth of BTC running in DeFi on-chain. This "price lying flat, capital working" divergence precisely shows that smart money is preparing for the next liquidity cycle — price not rising is okay, first convert positions into assets that can generate yield.
$ETH is currently priced at $1,884, up 0.35% in 24 hours, performing moderately. But as BTCFi heats up, the real beneficiary is ETH — every wrapped BTC entering lending pools injects TVL and on-chain activity into Ethereum. SOL is priced at $76, up 0.27% in 24 hours, up 4.7% over the past week, clearly outperforming BTC and ETH, indicating some hot money rotating to high-throughput chains, but SOL is capturing traffic while BTCFi is about credit — the logic differs.
Honestly, the biggest contradiction in this market now is not whether prices rise or not, but the conflict between "idling" and "yield generation." Retail investors are still waiting for BTC to break out of the range for direction, while institutions are already figuring out how to make their BTC generate income even during sideways markets. Circle launching cirBTC essentially bets that the next market competition won't be about price but about "whose BTC can make better use of money."
The era of digital gold is not over, but the era of "gold producing offspring" has already begun. At 9 PM, when nightlife is just starting, BTC is already lying flat—$62,605, down 1.7%, more stable than my diet plan.
ETH is stuck at $1,868, down 1.1%, the two brothers like weekend overtime workers, motionless.
The US stock market is about to open, and this market feels just like waiting for a late-night snack: looks tempting, but you never know which bite will choke you. Don’t rush to bottom-fish, have a slurp of noodles first, and wait for the show
$BTC $SNDK $ETH 📊 $HYPE Contract Liquidation Update (August 15)
According to liquidation data, all HYPE cycles show a pattern where long liquidations overwhelmingly surpass short liquidations, with a persistent short squeeze throughout, but the momentum is significantly weakening:
· Short cycles (1H/4H): 1-hour long liquidations at $5,755.79 vs. shorts at $349.95, longs crushing shorts by 16.4 times, indicating intense short squeeze; 4-hour long liquidations at $83,500 vs. shorts at $19,100, longs crushing shorts by 4.37 times, short squeeze continues but the ratio sharply drops, liquidation volume about 14.5 times that of 1-hour. Short cycle longs are continuously targeted and harvested, but 4-hour short squeeze momentum has greatly weakened.
· Mid cycle (12H): Long liquidations at $227,600 vs. shorts at $72,700, longs crushing shorts by 3.13 times, short squeeze momentum continues to weaken, liquidation volume about twice that of 4-hour.
· 24-hour cycle: Long liquidations at $331,300 vs. shorts at $281,100, longs crushing shorts by 1.18 times, total liquidations exceed $612,400, longs account for nearly 54.1%, short squeeze momentum further weakens compared to 12-hour, direction not reversed but longs and shorts are approaching balance.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Long liquidations continue to crush shorts across all HYPE cycles with consistent direction, but the ratio narrows from 16.4 times at 1-hour to 1.18 times at 24-hour, indicating significant exhaustion of short squeeze momentum and a very high risk of directional reversal. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, mainly observe and wait for clearer direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 15
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the macro window opens, and industry leaders are setting unprecedented long-term targets to price storage demand in the AI era.
💾 SanDisk Investor Day Releases "Explosive" Guidance: Stock Price Surges Nearly 14%
On August 13, storage giant SanDisk unveiled a long-term financial model covering fiscal years 2028 to 2030 at its 2026 Investor Day, with targets far exceeding market expectations: revenue maintaining mid-to-high double-digit growth, non-GAAP gross margin around 80%, operating margin about 75%, and adjusted free cash flow margin about 50%. The company commits to returning 100% of excess free cash flow to shareholders through stock buybacks. Additionally, eight major customers have signed long-term agreements covering about two-thirds of bit shipments for fiscal 2028; by 2030, the potential market size for enterprise data center flash is expected to expand to 1.2ZB.
Boosted by this, SanDisk's stock price surged nearly 14%. Goldman Sachs reiterated a "Buy" rating with a 12-month target price of $2200, implying approximately 44% upside.
📊 CPI and PPI Cooling Simultaneously: Rate Hike Probability Drops to 35%
US July inflation data continues to signal cooling. CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, core CPI at 2.5%; PPI year-over-year dropped sharply from 5.5% in June to 4.7%, month-over-month steady.
After data release, the probability of a September rate hike fell from about 55% a week ago to 35%. Former Kansas City Fed President George stated July data "does not show accelerating inflation." However, core CPI at 2.5% remains well above the 2% target—cooling is real, and the gap to target remains.
📈 S&P Closes at New High: 8000 Point Expectation Heats Up
On August 14, the S&P 500 closed at 7798.99, up 0.65%, breaking 7800 for the first time. Moderate inflation data dampened rate hike expectations, and falling oil prices provided additional support. JPMorgan has raised its year-end target to 8000; Kalshi market forecast data shows traders now see about a 66% chance of the S&P breaking 8000 this year.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s long-term guidance of "80% gross margin + 50% free cash flow margin" sets an unprecedented high bar for AI storage profitability; simultaneous cooling of CPI and PPI pushes September rate hike probability down to 35%; the S&P 500 surpasses 7800 for the first time, making 8000 no longer out of reach. As the macro window opens, indices hit new highs, and industry leaders draw three-year growth curves—the market is pricing AI-era storage demand in record-breaking fashion. #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 After SOL put stocks and payments on-chain, the competition with ETH is no longer about speed.
If you still think of $SOL as just a chain suitable for Meme and high-frequency trading, you are underestimating the market it truly wants to capture recently. The Solana ecosystem is simultaneously advancing stablecoin settlements, cross-border payments, tokenized stocks, gold, and other real-world assets, even making subscription and authorized payments fundamental on-chain capabilities. What it aims to prove is no longer "transactions are fast enough," but rather "real-world assets and business processes can run here sustainably."
This is fundamentally different from the previous phase of public chain competition. Meme trading requires cheap, fast, and strong profit incentives, with capital flowing in and out quickly; payments and RWA (Real World Assets) require issuance, custody, compliance, market making, redemption, and long-term system stability. The former looks at peak traffic, the latter looks at years of uninterrupted operation. If SOL can evolve from a speculative entry point to enterprise settlement, its valuation logic will shift from user activity to asset accumulation.
Solana’s advantages are well-suited for these scenarios. Unified state, high throughput, and relatively low fees allow transactions, payments, and asset management to maintain response speeds close to internet products. For tokenized stocks or merchant settlements, users may not care about the underlying consensus mechanism but will care whether transactions complete quickly, costs are predictable, and assets can be used across different applications.
However, this does not mean $ETH will be easily replaced. Ethereum’s years of security record, liquidity, custody systems, and institutional integrations still form a strong barrier. When choosing a network for high-value assets, it’s not just about how cheap a single transaction is, but also about legal structures, audit standards, development tools, cross-chain risks, and recovery capabilities under extreme conditions. ETH is more like a mature financial center, while SOL is like a rapidly growing new trading port; they compete over where new business lands.
What truly deserves attention is whether SOL can turn on-chain stocks and payments into composable financial activities. If users can only hold tokenized stocks in a single app after purchase, it’s more like a database with a new label; if these assets can be used as collateral, enter automated strategies, settle in real-time with stablecoins, while maintaining clear redemption and compliance paths, then the public chain truly creates efficiencies that traditional systems lack.
The positive logic is that new assets may bring more stable users than Meme. Salaries, remittances, subscriptions, merchant collections, and securities trading all have recurring characteristics. Once habits form, funds don’t need to chase new hotspots daily to stay on-chain. The depth of stablecoins increases accordingly, which in turn improves DeFi and trading experiences, forming a cycle from payments to asset management.
The risk lies in the fact that the core rights of RWA still come from off-chain. Whether stocks are truly custodied, whether holders have dividend and redemption rights, and whether issuers are regulated are issues blockchain speed cannot solve. The network can prove tokens are not double-spent but cannot automatically guarantee no disputes exist over off-chain assets. The deeper SOL enters real finance, the more it must accept slower and more complex compliance constraints than the Meme market.
Additionally, rapid expansion increases system demands. Enterprise-level payments cannot tolerate long interruptions, large assets cannot rely on a few interfaces, and wallet authorization and private key management must be more user-friendly. SOL has proven it can handle hype; the next phase is to prove it can handle responsibility. Traffic shocks are one kind of pressure; long-term financial operations are a more difficult kind.
Therefore, the competition between SOL and ETH should no longer be measured only by TPS or a single day’s DEX volume. The real comparison is: who can bring more real-world assets on-chain, who can make stablecoin turnover more efficient, who can provide more reliable rights protection, and who can retain users from a single transaction to long-term asset management. Speed is just the entry ticket; trust determines the scale of funds.
$SOL is evolving from "the best chain for speculation" to "a chain for doing business," while $ETH guards the financial credibility built over many years. The real war between the two is not about who is faster, but who can make the off-chain world willing to entrust their most important assets on-chain.$BOME (1H) – Bullish Reclaim Setup
Bias: LONG
Entry Zone: 0.0007500 – 0.0007550
Stop Loss: 0.0007310
TP1: 0.0007620
TP2: 0.0007710
TP3: 0.0007800
Why this setup:
BOME pushed above its short-term moving averages with consecutive green candles off the 0.0007315 floor. Holding above MA20 ($0.0007451) points toward momentum higher.
NFA – Educational purposes only.
#SandiskInvestorDayRally #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 #OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温
The boss has something to say
OpenAI's annualized revenue has surpassed 40 billion, doubling compared to the end of 2025. Supported by programming software and subscriptions. Anthropic is even more aggressive, with year-end annualized revenue possibly reaching 100 to 120 billion, and valuation discussions heading towards 2 trillion.
The common point between the two is that both are burning computing power to generate revenue. OpenAI has replaced its Chief Revenue Officer to pave the way for an IPO. Anthropic is pushing forward with its IPO. The market is no longer just watching revenue growth, but whether the money burned can turn into stable profits and cash flow.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
This matter has a somewhat indirect impact on crypto. The most active venture capital and retail funds in the market are limited; with names like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic all competing for liquidity in the space, incremental funds for the crypto market will be reduced. High yield expectations can also be realized elsewhere, not necessarily only in the crypto space.
All my current positions have been closed today. Shorted Bitcoin from 63600 to 62600, shorted SanDisk from 1377 to 1345 and exited. No more trading tonight.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop-loss orders set. Good luck.#SanDisk Investor Day Later, Long-Term Goals Become the Focus
The Fed is debating, SanDisk is rising, and all the data is cooling down. CPI dropped from 3.5 to 3.4, PPI from 5.5 to 4.7, initial jobless claims at 209,000. Then the Fed started fighting among themselves. Harker says rate hikes are needed, Barkin says it's enough. They are on the same team but saying opposite things.
Bitcoin at 63,600, ETH at 1880, $XAU stopped at 4400. US assets are all stuck in place, direction unclear. But SanDisk surged in one line, from 1330 to 1579, up 18%. In one day.
Why? The investor day just ended. Management talked about AI storage roadmap, NAND supply and demand, and a $14 billion buyback. The market is pricing it in. The last earnings report showed revenue of 8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, but guidance missed by 550 million, causing a 7% drop in stock price. Today the story is clear, the market believes it, and it surged back 18% in one day.
$SNDK is rising, Bitcoin is waiting. What's the difference? SanDisk has its own narrative, its own performance, its own buyback. Bitcoin is still waiting for macro to give direction. But can SanDisk really move independently of macro? The denominator is inflation and interest rates, the numerator is AI and performance. If the denominator is unstable, no matter how big the numerator is, it gets discounted.
What about $SPCX? Musk's one sentence pushed it up 40%, from 108 to 149. But SanDisk's rise is backed by an investor day, $14 billion buyback, and 8.9 billion revenue. A narrative supported by performance can go far. My short position on SPCX is still open, floating a loss of 300U. It's not because I don't believe in AI, but I don't believe 500 billion will come out of a company-wide meeting.
SanDisk is speaking with numbers, SPCX is pumping with stories. The position is still open, waiting for the numbers to speak.我前些天做空了$CAP ，目前已经面临着一个的浮亏了。 但是，我不打算去止损，因为我觉得它目前应该已经到了短期的高点。 我研究了一下它的数据，发现它的合约数据和$BEAT 的合约数据在某些程度上是相反的。 所以，如果你相信$BEAT 会反弹，那你也应该相信$CAP 会暴跌。 因为正好相反的数据，我认为是很难产生同样的一个结果的。 —————————————————— 我们看一下$CAP 的合约数据。 可以发现，在它今天下午的上涨中，它的合约持仓量和多空比是同步升高的。 这就意味着，今天下午的这波上涨是短线资金在推动的。 这和$BEAT 是一样的，$BEAT 今天下午的下跌也是短线资金推动的。 我在刚刚的文章里讲了，短线资金的入场通常意味着上涨或下跌的结束。 当然，具体问题还要具体分析，并不是短线资金入场就意味着一定要结束的。 我们再看一下稍长一点时间的数据。 可以发现，它的持仓量是在不断的上涨的，多空比是在不断的下降的。 如果你看过我刚刚的那篇文章，可以发现$BEAT 的多空比正好和它是相反的。 我在刚刚的文章里，给$BEAT 下了一个结论，我说我认为$BEAT 会反弹。 那我现在在这Here is another misconception
Some people think that only ETF net inflows can trigger a bull market
In fact, this is a lagging indicator
Let's also look at ETF data performance at Bitcoin bottoms
On August 5, 2024, Bitcoin's price hit the lowest point at 49000, and the entire August was a bottom area. However, ETF performance was very sluggish, with inflows and outflows, a stagnant pool. Then the bull market started in September, and ETF net inflows began to expand continuously
In March 2025, Bitcoin price bottomed around 75000, and the whole March was also a bottom. ETF did not have any continuous large net inflows, and before the bull market started, there were continuous net outflows
See, ETF is just a noisy indicator, a lagging indicator, and a misattributed cause of bull market starts
All indicators are results of price, not causes
Similarly, stablecoin market cap, exchange Bitcoin balances, and ETF bull market top excessive net inflows
If you see exchange Bitcoin balances decreasing during the hottest part of the bull market, it doesn't mean a big rise is coming. Either the buyers are withdrawing coins, or large funds have withdrawn and are selling OTC in large amounts, so there is no so-called volume-based sell signal at the bull market top
I hope everyone won't be troubled by these indicators; every indicator can fail,
In the current market, it's still best to return to our old reliable dollar-cost averagingSanDisk Investor Day "Spillover Effect" Ignites Storage Sector, SK Hynix Soars 15.68% This Week
---
📊 1. Real-Time Market: Both Korean Stocks and ADRs Surge
Korean Stock (000660.KS): Closed at 1,645,000 KRW on August 14, up 3.26% (+52,000 KRW). Intraday surged over 6%, reaching a high of 1,697,000 KRW. Weekly cumulative gain reached 15.68%, the largest weekly increase since May 4. Year-to-date gain stands at 153.20%.
U.S. ADR (SKHY): Closed at $165.67 on August 13, soaring 7.29% (+$11.26), continued rising after hours. Pre-market on August 14 rose another 1.70% to $168.49, intraday briefly surpassed $170 (the IPO opening price). 52-week range is $124.80 to $194.80. Market cap approximately $1.21 trillion, P/E ratio about 9.96x.
🔥 2. Market Review: SanDisk Sparks Collective Rally in Storage Sector
SK Hynix opened up 6.40% today (1,695,000 KRW), quickly surged to 1,697,000 KRW (+6.53%) after opening, then retreated due to profit-taking pressure, finally closing up 3.26%. It has risen for five consecutive trading days.
Direct catalyst: SanDisk (SNDK) released "nuclear-level" positive news at its August 13 Investor Day — mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth from 2028-2030, 80% gross margin, $93.9 billion contract backlog — stock surged 13.67% in one day. SanDisk's optimistic guidance spilled over to the entire storage sector, with Micron up 4.2%, SK Hynix ADR up 7.29%. DaXin Securities analysts noted that SanDisk's demonstrated long-term growth and high profitability strengthened overall investment confidence in the memory industry.
📋 3. Core Driving Factors
Macro level: U.S. July PPI was flat month-over-month, below market expectation of +0.2%, further easing inflation concerns. The S&P 500 closed up 0.65%, hitting another record high. Inflation easing directly boosted the semiconductor sector's overall strength.
AI demand level: OpenAI's annualized revenue is expected to exceed $40 billion, doubling from $20 billion at the end of last year. UBS strategists pointed out the market is in an "unprecedented growth era," with hyperscale customers' capital expenditures continuously flowing into hardware, driving explosive performance for memory chip companies.
Event catalysts: ① Ahead of the investor day, JPMorgan raised SK Hynix ADR target price to $2,250; ② SK Hynix announced a groundbreaking ceremony on August 27 for its advanced packaging production base in Indiana, USA; ③ Resumption of NAND factory construction in Dalian, China, expanding capacity by about 50%, expected to start production in the first half of next year.
🏦 4. Institutional Views: 96% of 53 Analysts Recommend "Buy"
Robinhood data shows that among 53 analysts covering SKHY, 96.2% rate it "Buy," 3.8% "Hold," 0% "Sell."
JPMorgan: Raised target price to $2,250, optimistic about AI-driven NAND demand and new pricing models. Bank of America: Maintains "Buy," ADR target price $250. Societe Generale: Target price 3,700,000 KRW (about $2,600/ADR). UBS: Reiterates "Buy," target price 3,000,000 KRW.
📈 5. Technical Analysis and Key Levels
SK Hynix rebounded strongly over 15% this week after retracing from the 52-week high of 2,987,000 KRW in June to 1,248,000 KRW at the end of July, significantly easing short-term bearish sentiment.
Key resistance: 1,695,000-1,697,000 KRW (today's high range) → $194.8 (ADR) (52-week high) → $200 (ADR) (psychological level)
Key support: 1,600,000-1,640,000 KRW (pullback support zone) → 1,500,000-1,550,000 KRW (strong support) → $124.8 (ADR) (52-week low)
💎 6. Summary
SK Hynix surged 15.68% this week, a resonance of triple positive factors: "SanDisk Investor Day spillover effect + easing inflation + AI demand explosion." SanDisk's $93.9 billion contract backlog and 80% gross margin target have fully ignited market enthusiasm for revaluing the storage industry from a cyclical stock to a growth stock.
OpenAI's annualized revenue doubling to $40 billion validates the structural growth logic of AI hardware demand. Top investment banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Societe Generale are collectively bullish, with 96% of 53 analysts rating "Buy" and 0% selling.
$170 (ADR) / 1,695,000 KRW (Korean stock) is the short-term key resistance — a successful breakthrough and hold above this area could open space toward $194.8-$200; if rejected and falling back, a pullback to the 1,600,000-1,640,000 KRW support zone is possible.
$SKHYNIX News about Nvidia's CPO mass production cooperation advancing has been released, and the capital focus in the computing power hardware chain has quickly shifted to the optical module segment.
On the market, capital has continuously poured in for several hours after the news release, with $LITE becoming the core target in the US stock computing power supply chain to absorb buying pressure.
The capital expenditure rhythm of US tech giants directly influences the performance expectations of computing power communication hardware and also drives the overall risk asset preference shift.
Joint R&D progress at the supply chain level has transformed the mass production narrative of leading chip manufacturers into a valuation re-estimation expectation for downstream component manufacturers.
If the delivery rhythm of mass production orders and performance releases can be continuously fulfilled, the hardware boom driven by $NVDA will continue to support the valuation baseline uplift of the optical module sector.
If the progress of scaled mass production technology falls short of expectations, or if previously accumulated profit-taking concentrates, the sector may quickly face valuation compression and trigger capital withdrawal.
Sentiment fluctuations in core US tech assets will also simultaneously spill over to the global liquidity-sensitive crypto market and broader risk asset sectors.
When the order fulfillment rhythm cannot match the overheated market pricing, this round of valuation expansion logic driven by industry catalysts will be falsified.
The most important variable to observe in the next seven days is the trading continuity and turnover absorption strength of core optical module targets after digesting the news.
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果，美伊施压升级 #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%#高盛收购Neos，加密ETF转向收益竞争
This batch of crypto yield ETFs is quite interesting—they don't bet on the price movements of BTC and ETH. Instead, by holding spot ETFs combined with options strategies, they turn price volatility into monthly dividends. This is the favorite model of institutions: no directional bets, just converting volatility into stable cash flow.
What Goldman Sachs is doing here, simply put, is buying a system that can convert the high volatility of crypto assets into stable returns. The signal here is clear: Wall Street's big banks are accelerating the packaging of crypto assets into instruments that can reliably generate interest income. Goldman Sachs isn't focused on how high BTC will rise; rather, they see that the high volatility of crypto assets can be packaged and sold to earn stable money. This model is unaffected by bull or bear markets.
The competition among crypto ETFs has shifted from fee wars to yield wars. Previously, it was about who had the lowest fees; the next phase is about who can create richer yield products using underlying assets. Goldman Sachs is buying not just a $30 billion AUM, but an entire infrastructure for crypto derivatives.
For people in the crypto space, this isn't a direct bullish or bearish signal but a confirmation of a trend. Traditional finance is accelerating its entry into pricing and risk management of crypto asset derivatives. The deeper institutions embed themselves in this market, the more the volatility baseline of crypto assets will gradually decline, and the entire category will evolve from purely speculative tools into yield-generating assets capable of producing stable income.
A $2.25 billion acquisition is buying more than just a $30 billion scale; it represents the very fact that crypto assets are being integrated into the mainstream financial system.
What do you all think?
$BTC Blacklist scrutiny upgrades intensify the risk of clearing non-compliant platforms, with compliance premiums driving capital reallocation. Leading platforms implement on-chain relay isolation and freeze reviews on non-compliant exchanges, significantly suppressing market risk appetite and triggering migration of existing positions. Under regulatory clearance pressure, compliant assets such as $OKB are seeing a repricing as safe-haven positions. Going forward, attention should be paid to the sustainability of net capital inflows into compliant addresses; if compliant platforms face equivalent scrutiny resistance or if $OKB's on-chain net inflow turns negative consecutively, this scenario will be invalidated.
#OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温 #高盛收购Neos，加密ETF转向收益竞争$AIXBT (1H) – Support Bounce Setup
Bias: LONG
Entry Zone: 0.01740 – 0.01755
Stop Loss: 0.01720
TP1: 0.01780
TP2: 0.01810
TP3: 0.01840
Why this setup:
Price recently swept liquidity down to the 0.01738 low and is showing signs of stabilizing. Risk-to-reward favors a long play targeting a retest of the MA20 line above#SandiskLongTermTargets #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 Another round? $SPCX has rebounded after making progress, can we continue shorting? Here's a routine analysis.
First, the conclusion: still can short!
Firstly, the previously supportive bullish news has basically been completely diluted. For example, Musk said Grok4.6 was very strong, but then DeepseekV4PRO was released shortly after, knocking it down before it even warmed up, directly damaging the expected revenue from computing power leasing.
Secondly, the internal speech released on 8.11 claiming AI accounts for 99% of SpaceX's value has been highly controversial. Some investors think it's a distraction, directly impacting those investing for Starship, Starlink, and defense contracts.
Also, the so-called Wall Street report claiming 300 billion in revenue is full of loopholes to hype the stock price. Building 10GW computing power by the end of the year is basically unrealistic; this is just a linear extrapolation of the current computing power scarcity premium.
Moreover, cross-industry hoarding of computing power actually proves Grok itself cannot absorb the computing power. The so-called rapid construction of computing power centers using second-hand Chinese power equipment will definitely face many difficulties in implementation.
So how do we view the market next?
Yongchen will still choose to short near the major resistance at 150, to see if there is a second top test. Yesterday, it was shorted near 148 to 149. Given the large unlock next week and a possible big rebound, I will try a second short. Because of the large volatility and this being the second short at resistance, the position should be lighter. But Yongchen basically doesn't fear; now it only has the qualification to resume attacking for a second top test. If 150 is not broken and it falls back, then after 142-135, look for support at 133-130. If no support, it still needs to go down sharply!
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% 🔥 宏观数据偏利好，但资金并没有全面回到山寨币 北京时间8月14日，市场真正值得关注的不是某个币短时间涨跌，而是宏观数据改善之后，资金是否真正开始重新进入加密市场。 7月美国消费者价格指数同比上涨3.4%，核心消费者价格指数同比上涨2.5%，均符合市场预期；7月生产者价格指数环比持平，同比上涨4.7%，整体通胀压力有所缓和。理论上，这种环境有利于降低市场对进一步加息的担忧。 但市场实际反应并不强。 比特币目前仍在6.3万美元附近震荡，宏观数据公布后没有出现持续放量上行，说明市场目前更缺的不是利好消息，而是持续的真实资金。 一、盘面资金行为 数据公布后的第一反应并不等于真实资金方向。 美国通胀数据公布后，比特币没有形成持续突破，随后重新回到6.3万美元附近。与此同时，美国现货比特币基金连续两日出现资金净流出，8月13日单日净流出约1.311亿美元，两日累计约1.922亿美元。 但资金并没有完全离开加密市场。 同期美国现货以太坊基金仍有约670万美元净流入，Solana相关基金也有约360万美元净流入。 这说明当前更准确的描述不是“资金全面撤离”，而是： 资金正在从比特币向部分其他资产进$SNDK exploded +15.8%, don’t pretend to be safe; $BTC -1.67% and $QQQ +1.16% appearing simultaneously is not a reversal, it’s just funds switching tables.
$BTC 62,628 -1.67% $ETH 1,867 -1.28%
$QQQ +1.16% $SPY +0.70% $IBIT -0.03%
$DXY -0.44% $GLD -1.47%
US Treasuries and Fed expectations continue to suppress valuations, the denominator side hasn’t loosened; crypto and ETFs are competing for risk appetite, $QQQ, $SNDK, $SKHYNIX—these AI/semiconductor sentiment switches set the tone once triggered.
$ETH is more resilient than $BTC, the smaller drop shows funds haven’t fully withdrawn; $QQQ +1.16% outpaces $SPY +0.70%, tech remains the main battlefield; $IBIT -0.03% didn’t follow $BTC -1.67%, a divergence emerged, someone is buying on the ETF side; $DXY -0.44% eased, without dollar pressure, risk assets can breathe; $GLD -1.47% retreated, safe-haven money is pulling out.
There’s a lot of info today, don’t rush to chase, wait for clearer signals from the market, whoever shows weakness first will set the direction.
#加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？#闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点
Crypto friends, today's market really confused Nini!
SNDK surged from around 1330 to 1579, a nearly 18% increase in a single day; BTC is still hovering around 63600, ETH around 1880, and gold has stalled near 4400.
Even more outrageous is SPCX—after a single comment from Musk, the stock price jumped directly from around 108 to 149, with gains exceeding 40% at one point! Nini's long position in SPCX took off right on the spot 🚀
The entry price for this position was 116.9. Last time it almost got crushed by the bears, but now it finally feels like "escaping from death" 😂
Why is there such a big difference in trends within the same market?
This rally in SanDisk is at least supported by performance. After the investor day, the market is re-trading AI storage, NAND supply-demand improvements, and a $14 billion buyback expectation. The last earnings report showed revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%. Now the management has further clarified the future path, and capital is revaluing accordingly.
A narrative backed by performance is completely different from pure emotional speculation. SanDisk proves its story with numbers, while SPCX relies more on stories to support its price.
Looking at BTC, CPI and PPI continue to cool down, but internal disagreements have started within the Federal Reserve. Without a unified interest rate expectation, capital naturally hesitates to bet lightly. So it's not that there are no opportunities now, but that the market is waiting for direction.
SanDisk has already started speaking with performance, SPCX is soaring on sentiment, and BTC is still waiting for the macro starting gun. Can the rebound in the Korean semiconductor sector lead to a recovery in risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market? What parts are already priced in, and what variables are yet to be reflected? The recent rebound in the Korean semiconductor sector, centered on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is supported by strong global demand for AI infrastructure and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). Analysts view this adjustment not as a weakening of fundamentals but as a repositioning realignment, and Korea's expansion of advanced chip manufacturing investment demonstrates a commitment to strengthening AI leadership. This is not merely a stock market issue but a signal that increases confidence in the global AI investment cycle. From a market structure perspective, the key is cross-market transmission. If the semiconductor sector's rebound improves investment sentiment across risk assets, there is potential for institutional capital to reflow into digital assets. However, in the short term, it should be noted that the concentration of funds into AI semiconductor stocks may compete with cryptocurrencies for capital allocation. This is not a zero-sum game but rather a matter of timing.Evening market analysis $BTC $ETH $SOL.
BTC 62,700, ETH 1,870, SOL 75.6. The dip at midnight never recovered, Binance hit a low of 62,969, HTX hit a low of 62,667. The psychological level of 63,000 held for five weeks, once broken, it broke.
Four blows hit the news simultaneously.
First blow, ETF funds are fleeing. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $131.1 million yesterday, the second consecutive day of net outflow, totaling $192 million. This week, a total of $332 million was sold. Fidelity FBTC saw $46.82 million outflow, BlackRock also withdrew. Money is flowing out.
Second blow, SEC meeting canceled. The "Regulation Crypto" rule proposal meeting originally scheduled for today was directly canceled last night by the SEC due to "unforeseeable scheduling issues," with a new date pending. The market waited a week for regulatory clarity but got continued uncertainty. The CLARITY Act vote in September was already uncertain, now both paths are blocked.
Third blow, the Strait of Hormuz tightens again. The US announced a possible "indefinite" maritime blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran has already restricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. This strait handles 20% of global oil transportation. Brent crude oil surged in response, reigniting inflation expectations.
Fourth blow, the 30-year Treasury auction yield surged to 5.22%, the highest since 2001. Holding non-yielding BTC, the opportunity cost is rising. The Fed's probability of a September rate hike jumped from 48% to 73% within a week.
On-chain also adds pressure. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $238 million, BTC long positions liquidated $41.75 million, shorts only $7.37 million — bulls are being targeted. BTC broke below the daily Bollinger Band lower bound at $62,507, technicals are fully weakening.
BTC 62,700, 62,700-62,850 is the first defense line, break it and look directly at 62,000. Above, 63,300-63,500 has become a wall.
ETH 1,870, ETH longs liquidated $24.99 million, even worse than BTC. Breaking 1,852 targets 1,800-1,830.
SOL 75.6, the lower edge of the 72-77 box is approaching. Exchange SOL net inflows have been positive for two consecutive days, selling pressure is accumulating.
Trading ideas (total position within 30%):
BTC: Try longs if 62,700-62,850 holds, stop loss at 62,200, target 63,300-63,500; if rebound at 63,300-63,500 lacks volume, short back, stop loss 63,800. If 62,200 breaks, wait for 61,500-62,000.
ETH: Try longs if 1,860-1,870 stabilizes, stop loss 1,830, target 1,890-1,900; short if rebound at 1,890-1,900 faces resistance, stop loss 1,920. If 1,850 breaks, wait for 1,800-1,830.
SOL: Try longs if 74.5-75 stabilizes, stop loss 73.5, target 76-76.5; short if 76-76.5 faces resistance, stop loss 77.5. If 74 breaks, avoid directly.
Once 63,000 breaks, the next support is 62,000. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 Ok tuned into the $SNDK NDK investor day.
So there was something beautiful that the team clarified. And that was steady state organic / internal growth.
The numbers:
- 15% production growth
- 27% technology improvement on bits
Compounding together, management has stated the core business grows at 50% annualized.
A free cash flow monster.#SandiskLongTermTargets #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 SanDisk surges, what is Wall Street really repricing?
After SanDisk's investor day today, the stock soared. Many people's first reaction might be: AI again, storage price hikes again.
But I think the truly important thing is not these.
In the past month, the market has been worried about one thing:
Now that NAND is so profitable, how much longer can it keep making money?
Because the biggest characteristic of the storage industry in the past has been its cycles.
Prices rise, profits surge, then the industry expands capacity, supply returns, and prices fall again.
So even though SanDisk's profits are currently very exaggerated, the market previously did not dare to easily count this profitability all the way to 2028 or 2029.
But today SanDisk directly answered this question.
The company provided a long-term model from FY2028 to FY2030:
Revenue will maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth annually, Non-GAAP gross margin around 80%, and more importantly—the operating margin target remains close to 75%.
This statement truly changed the market's expectations.
Because SanDisk's latest quarter gross margin has already reached 84.6%, with operating profit exceeding $7 billion. Previously, the market could interpret this as a cyclical peak, but now management tells you: we believe this ultra-high profitability is not just a short-term phenomenon in 2026, but can be maintained until around 2030.
So Wall Street started recalculating.
Here's a simple scenario.
Assuming FY27 revenue can eventually reach about $50 billion, then projecting forward with the company's long-term model of roughly 17% revenue growth midpoint:
By FY30, revenue could be around $80 billion.
If the 75% operating margin can really be maintained, operating profit would approach $60 billion.
Then, using the company's current approximate 15% tax rate and about 155 million diluted shares for rough calculation, theoretical EPS could even exceed $300, approaching $330.
It is important to note here:
$330 is not SanDisk's official EPS guidance, but a scenario the market deduces based on the company's long-term model presented today.
But this also explains why the stock price reacted so strongly today.
Because in the past, the market traded on the idea:
"SanDisk is very profitable now, but this is the top of the NAND cycle."
Today, the market begins to reconsider another possibility:
If AI really changes the demand structure for NAND, could this profit peak last longer than any previous cycle?
And the other information SanDisk provided today actually supports this logic.
The company has already signed long-term NBM agreements with 8 customers, covering about 50% of FY27 bit shipments, increasing to about two-thirds by FY28.
The significance is not just a few more big orders, but making SanDisk's sales, prices, and cash flow over the next few years more predictable, reducing the cyclical volatility that NAND investors have feared most.
Finally, there is a very direct positive:
The company stated that after completing business investments, it plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders in the future.
The most important change for SanDisk today is not just another AI story.
It is that management for the first time very clearly painted a profit framework extending all the way to 2030 for the market.
The market used to worry about when the cycle would end, now it begins to rethink: could this cycle be fundamentally different from before.
This is where SNDK is truly being repriced today; SNDK is evolving from a storage cyclical stock into an indispensable part of AI infrastructure! #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 Global major stock markets are collectively strengthening, with US stocks continuously hitting record highs, European indices repeatedly setting new records, and South Korean stocks also surging.
Recently, the global market logic has quietly shifted. US inflation data has been declining consecutively, the market has lowered its expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, and risk appetite among investors has broadly recovered.
The S&P 500 continues to surge, while Europe's STOXX50 and Germany's DAX simultaneously reach new highs; the Asian market shows even stronger momentum, with South Korea's KOSPI strongly rebounding driven by semiconductor leaders like Samsung and SK Hynix.
Behind the market rally are three converging main themes: easing pressure on interest rates, continuous realization of AI sector earnings, and the semiconductor sector returning to an upward trajectory.
What deserves deeper reflection now is not how much further the market can rise, but that global stock indices have all reached high-level ranges, with most positive news already priced in by the market.
Going forward, if inflation and employment data continue to improve moderately, capital will still have the motivation to push the market higher; however, if macro data fluctuates, high-level volatility will significantly increase.
The market never lacks opportunities, but the hotter the rally, the more important it is to avoid blindly chasing gains.
Risk warning: Sharing ideas only, not investment advice, no misleading guidance, comply with community guidelines! #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Both CPI and PPI cooled, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping from 55% to 35%, while Bitcoin remained stagnant at 63,000—I stared at the screen and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: inflation has fallen, rate hikes are in doubt, but the market's "big pig" hasn't even stepped on the pedal yet—the pigs are already eager to rush in. 📊 Let's start with the data: inflation has fallen, but not completely On August 12, the US July CPI was released: overall CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, down from June's 3.5%; Core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year, matching the lowest growth rate since March 2021. The next day, PPI caught up: July PPI year-on-year was 4.7%, below the expected 4.9% and also below the previous 5.5%; Month-on-month unchanged, but the expected growth was 0.2%. Core PPI was 4.2% year-on-year, compared to 4.7% previously. CPI and PPI both weakened, easing inflationary pressure upstream and downstream. The market has lowered its probability of a rate hike in September—CME FedWatch shows it was 55% a week ago, now down to around 35%. But strangely: $BTC did not rise. BTC was quoted at $63,466, down 0.18% in 24 hours; ETH was at $1,885, up 0.2%. Cooling inflation = lower rate hike expectations = rising risk assets—this logic chain failed today. 🔍 Why? Because the Fed is fighting internally. Moderates: Richmond Fed President Barkin believes inflation mainly stems from tariffs and oil price shocks that "should subside." Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Kaplan was even more direct: "Yes."$SNDK is looking increasingly overheated after jumping from above 1200 last night to 1635 today with virtually no pullback, leaving late buyers exposed.
Last night’s Investor Day outlined an ambitious long-term strategy, including a targeted 80% gross margin for 2028–2030, with excess cash flow potentially directed toward share buybacks. That outlook helped attract buyers, while stop-losses on short positions added further momentum.
#SandiskLongTermTargets
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit Bloomberg: ETFs have seen over $100 billion inflows for 14 consecutive months, "passive money" has become the new normal, the crypto market needs to reprice
Latest from Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas:
Global ETF inflows have exceeded $100 billion in net monthly subscriptions for 14 consecutive months, with June alone reaching $191 billion (the second highest ever), averaging about $9 billion daily inflows. That month saw 214 new ETFs launched and a trading volume of $7 trillion.
In plain terms:
This is not a "risk appetite rebound," but rather U.S. households and institutions using ETFs like checking accounts — "paychecks arrive → buy VOO/QQQ → add on dips → never sell." VOO has attracted about $110 billion this year, becoming the first ETF to surpass $1 trillion in AUM.
Three implications for the crypto space:
1) The external liquidity pool is growing, not shrinking
The more stable the inflows into traditional equity and bond ETFs, the thicker the institutional base allocation to "alternative assets." BTC spot ETFs are just a tributary of this passive flood, but the denominator has grown.
2) "Cycle theory" continues to fail
Previously, BTC pricing relied on halving events plus retail FOMO. Now, there is a steady $100 billion monthly ETF inflow for 14 months. This explains why this BTC rally is less frenzied than in 2017/2021, but the pullbacks are also less brutal — some investors are dollar-cost averaging monthly, not just gambling annually.
3) AI/semiconductor ETFs come from the same pool of money
Balchunas mentioned that tech & thematic ETFs have attracted $100 billion this year, with AI, DRAM, HBM-related products launching in batches. This shows the external "tech bets" haven’t disappeared; they first flowed into stock ETFs, then spilled over into BTC, compute power coins, and RWA. The vehicle changed, but the money didn’t leave.
But this is not blind bullishness:
ETFs represent "slow money," not "catching a falling knife." If external factors like employment or inflation reverse and cause continuous redemptions, the first to be hit in crypto will be high-beta altcoins, not BTC.The valuation race between OpenAI and Anthropic is heating up, which is not only a showdown between two giants in the AI field but may also create short-term pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin by siphoning off market liquidity.
Valuation figures: An unprecedented capital showdown
OpenAI: Steady and strong, sprinting to a trillion: According to Bloomberg, OpenAI's current annualized revenue has exceeded $40 billion, doubling by the end of 2025. After a $122 billion funding round, its valuation stabilized at $852 billion, aiming for a $1 trillion IPO.
Anthropic: Rising from behind, targeting $2 trillion: Investors are more aggressive in their expectations, forecasting annualized revenue of $100 billion to $120 billion by year-end, a growth of over 10 times. After surpassing OpenAI in May, investors expect it to IPO in October with a valuation of at least $2 trillion, possibly challenging $3 trillion.
Transmission to the crypto market: liquidity siphoning effect
The opponent in this AI valuation race may well be the crypto market.
On one hand, massive funds are being drawn away. OpenAI's single funding round raised $122 billion, and Anthropic has raised nearly $100 billion this year. These huge funds mainly come from traditional venture capital, sovereign wealth funds, etc., which heavily overlap with mainstream crypto market capital. When the AI sector can accommodate such a large volume of funds, it inevitably squeezes incremental capital from the crypto market.
On the other hand, the IPO frenzy will intensify capital diversion. Tech giants like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are concentrating on IPOs, attracting the attention and funds of traditional capital markets to these "higher certainty" targets, which will relatively reduce the funds flowing to risk assets like Bitcoin.
Beware of the transmission risk of valuation bubbles
Currently, the valuations of these AI giants are largely based on a "recycling financing" model. Cloud providers are both investors and major clients, burning cash at an astonishing rate. OpenAI burned $3.7 billion in Q1 alone. Once capital market sentiment reverses and the AI bubble bursts, its impact will inevitably transmit to the crypto market, which is highly correlated with risk appetite.
When the scale of a single AI funding round exceeds the entire crypto market's weekly ETF inflows, this valuation race is unlikely to be positive for BTC in the short term. In a zero-sum game, the bigger the whales' appetite, the smaller the cake left for BTC.
That's all from Cige. Ponder it carefully. #OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温 $BTC $ETH $SNDK