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August 20｜BTC breaks 72,000, ETH stands above 2300, what to expect after the correction?
Today's market can be summed up with the word "correction."
$BTC rose more than 8.5% intraday, directly surpassing $72,000, with trading volume exceeding 10 billion. But a closer look shows that the main driver of this rally was short liquidations—over 187,000 liquidations across the network in 24 hours, with short squeezes forcibly pulling the price up. The price has significantly deviated from the 5-day moving average, and short-term overbought conditions are very obvious. This currently looks more like a violent correction, far from a trend reversal.
$ETH showed stronger resilience, rising 18% in 24 hours, currently standing above $2300, with an intraday high of $2334. The ecosystem's heat and capital rotation provided enough upward momentum, but signs of stagnation at high levels have appeared, and bullish momentum is weakening.
In short, this rally is a pulse market driven by short liquidations plus sentiment correction, not a new primary uptrend. Both coins are severely overbought with a lot of floating profit at high levels. Most likely, there will be consolidation, shakeout, and a pullback to the moving averages to correct the deviation.
In terms of trading, don't chase the highs. Those with positions can take profits in batches and wait for the 5-day moving average to stabilize before making further moves. Chasing now is not cost-effective.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ The rapid upward movement of $ETH in this round is the result of multiple positive factors resonating together. Expectations of eased external liquidity and a clearer industry regulatory framework have raised the overall market's risk appetite. After breaking through the previous long-term consolidation range, the accumulated short positions were forced to close, creating a short squeeze. Passive buying further amplified the upward momentum, combined with a rapid influx of funds, resulting in a strong elastic rally.
After the short-term surge, indicators have already entered the overbought zone, and a large amount of profit-taking chips have accumulated in the market, so a round of correction and consolidation may occur at any time. A single large bullish candlestick cannot directly determine that the medium- to long-term upward trend is fully established. Going forward, the focus should be on whether the key support levels during the pullback phase can hold, and whether incremental funds can continue to enter. Only if the pullback support stabilizes with volume cooperation does the market have a chance to continue its recovery rhythm; if buying quickly weakens, it is highly likely to enter a high-level oscillation pattern after the surge. #BTC突破72000美元, can this round of gains continue? Today, the crypto world suddenly became lively. $BTC Climbed from around 64,000 to above 70,000! ETH is even more outrageous, surging nearly 20% in a single day. High-beta assets like SOL, XRP, and HYPE have also started to move. Many people's first reaction was: The bull market is back! But I think what really deserves attention this time is not how much BTC has risen. Instead, something very important is happening in the United States: the U.S. is repricing cryptocurrencies. Trump recently publicly pushed Congress to pass the CLARITY Act again. What does this mean? To put it simply: Previously, U.S. regulators were ambiguous about whether many currencies were securities or commodities. Now the U.S. is trying to clarify this issue. Once the regulatory framework is truly implemented, the biggest change won't be BTC suddenly surging by $5,000. Instead: the U.S. may officially push cryptocurrencies from "gray financial assets" toward mainstream financial assets. This means different things for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and even the entire altcoin market. More importantly, the U.S. Treasury recently expanded its long-term Treasury repurchase program, causing market liquidity expectations to begin to change. And what does the crypto world eat the most? It's about liquidity. When money is tight, BTC also gets hit. When money starts to increase, the first thing capital targets is often these highly volatile assets. So the BTC rise you see now is not just a simple matter$BEAT BEAT drops over 33% in a single day, evaporates 94% in 30 days — Who's selling? Who's buying?
Today's bearish candle for BEAT deserves a separate discussion.
In 24 hours, the price crashed from 0.2088 to 0.1286, a 38.7% swing, currently barely holding at 0.1323, down 33%. This single-day drop is already shocking — but the real terror lies in the longer timeframe:
7-day drop of 85%, 30-day drop of 94%, 90-day drop of 87%.
If you spent 10,000 yuan on BEAT three months ago, you now have less than 1,300 yuan left. If you jumped in a month ago, you now have only 600 yuan.
This is not a correction; this is a liquidity collapse.
Let's first review the market data (source: OKX perpetual contracts, timestamp 2026/08/20 19:30 UTC+8):
· Price: 0.1323, 24h high 0.2088, low 0.1286, amplitude 38.7%
· BOLL (20,2): middle band 0.1516, upper band 0.1756, lower band 0.1277 — price has broken below the lower band, currently running outside the channel
· KDJ: K 19.1, D 19.6, J 18.1 — all three lines at the bottom, classic oversold zone
· Open interest: about 6.48 million BEAT (nominal value about 857,000 USDT), no significant fluctuations in recent hours
· Funding rate: negative, about -0.06%, bears dominate but not extreme
· Long-short ratio (1 hour): about 3.77 — long accounts still outnumber shorts, but the gap is narrowing
· Active buy/sell volume: active buys about 24.56 million, active sells about 32.75 million — net sell about 8.19 million BEAT
Breaking down four key signals.
First, volume-driven decline, panic selling is surging.
24-hour volume is 640 million BEAT, turnover 84.7 million USDT. This volume is significantly larger than previous days, indicating panic and stop-loss selling are concentrated. There was a brief buy support near the 0.1286 low; otherwise, the price might have fallen deeper.
But volume-driven decline is never a bottom signal; contraction in volume is. Today's volume shows selling pressure continues; at least 1-2 days of low-volume sideways movement is needed to confirm selling exhaustion.
Second, KDJ lines all at the bottom but can become dulled in extreme conditions.
K 19, D 19, J 18, textbook oversold. But in a one-sided crash, KDJ can stay dulled in the oversold zone while price continues to fall, with indicators flat.
During BEAT's first crash on May 6, KDJ stayed below 20 for four full trading days before rebounding. So oversold ≠ immediate rebound; it only means short-term decline was too fast and technical repair is needed, which may manifest as sideways movement rather than a rebound.
Third, open interest has not crashed, which is the most dangerous signal.
6.48 million BEAT open interest, despite nearly 40% price amplitude today, shows almost no violent fluctuation. If this were a long liquidation cascade, open interest would plunge sharply (e.g., over 20% drop within half an hour).
But open interest is stable — indicating longs are holding on hard, not cutting losses.
This worries me more. Price dropped 33%, longs are still holding, meaning their losses are growing and margin is being consumed. If price keeps falling, these longs holding on will eventually be forced to liquidate, triggering a real stampede. The current calm may be the calm before the storm.
Fourth, long-short ratio 3.77 means many are still bottom-fishing.
A coin that dropped 33% in a day and 94% in 30 days still has a long-short ratio of 3.77, meaning long accounts are nearly four times short accounts.
A true bottom usually sees the long-short ratio fall below 1 — no one dares to go long, shorts become crowded, which characterizes the bottom zone. Now at 3.77, many retail investors are still "bottom-fishing" and "averaging down," leaving enough counterparties for shorts to harvest.
My operational logic (just logic, no trade calls):
If you hold BEAT at a loss:
· It's indeed late to cut losses now, but I don't recommend adding to average down
· Wait for two signals: ① daily volume contracts below 100 million; ② KDJ forms a bullish crossover at bottom (K crosses above D) and price stops making new lows
· If price breaks below 0.120 with volume expansion, it means more downside space; consider stop loss
If you are empty-handed and want to gamble on an oversold rebound:
· Use a very small position (1-2% of total funds)
· Place orders around 0.128-0.130
· Stop loss: 0.120 (cut losses if broken)
· Target: 0.150-0.155 (near BOLL middle band)
· Risk-reward ratio about 1:2, barely acceptable
But I must be honest: for a coin down 94% in 30 days, the chances of a 20% rebound or another 20% drop are roughly equal now.
Until we understand "who is selling and why," I won't call this a "golden pit." Bottoms are made, not guessed.
The only positive signal in this drop is: volume has expanded. Someone is selling, someone is buying. When sellers run out of steam, price will stabilize naturally. But for now, selling is still ongoing.
— Ice Americano, written at 0.1323, on the night of BEAT's crash
📌 Note: The price points in this article are personal review records and do not constitute trading advice. The market is complex; decisions are yours.The $BOMEmeme sector is starting to move again!
SOL's recent surge has directly driven BOME into a rally. As a meme token on the Solana chain that has consistently maintained high popularity, it always gets the first share of traffic when funds rotate, and on-chain capital keeps flowing in continuously.
Whenever mainstream coins start to rally, short-term hot money in the market tends to move into smaller market cap meme tokens. BOME had been consolidating at the bottom for quite a while; with a small market cap, the speed of price increase when funds enter is very fast. The project team also took advantage of the low price to accumulate a lot of chips, and when the overall market warms up, it launches with volume.
You can ride this trend for a while. The current price is 0.0013, with a short-term target around 0.0015
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ $BTC $ETH #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
SanDisk fluctuates daily, and the storage sector repeatedly "does sit-ups"—the market swings between the long-term AI narrative and short-term valuations, with capital repeatedly switching at high levels, reflecting that the market is still tugged by three major variables:
1. The sustainability of AI storage demand
2. The execution strength of long-term customer agreements
3. Whether the valuation repricing is reasonable
Bank of America believes: SanDisk's long-term growth and margin targets can provide a reference for Micron's valuation, indicating that some institutions still bet on AI and HBM demand to help storage companies break free from traditional cyclical stocks
SanDisk told a story of "smoothing the storage cycle" with long-term contracts—the market surged to buy after the investor day, then started doubting two days later: can this long contract really support the long-term goal of 80% gross margin?
Storage stocks are undergoing a valuation transition from "speculating on cycles" to "focusing on cash flow." This transition will not happen overnight—large rises and falls are normal until the market sees several consecutive quarters of performance validation.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK On the evening of August 20, ETH rose about 20% in 24 hours. What I’m more interested in is whether validators are rushing to exit after the price increase.
Around 19:34, the Ethereum public Beacon node showed about 2.215 million ETH in pending deposits, with only about 32 ETH actively exiting; ValidatorQueue simultaneously showed an entry queue of about 2.189 million ETH, waiting about 38 days, and an exit queue of only 96 ETH. The two differ slightly due to snapshot and statistical scope, but the direction is consistent: funds wanting to enter staking are still lined up long, and exit pressure is very light.
Looking at the daily snapshot, staked ETH increased from about 41.88 million on August 13 to about 42.22 million on the 20th, an increase of about 340,000; meanwhile, the entry queue actually decreased from about 2.318 million to 2.202 million. This looks more like the queue is continuously being digested while the staked supply rises simultaneously. It can’t be directly equated to spot buying, but it indicates that this round of rapid price increase has not triggered large-scale unstaking for now.
If ETH next gives back its gains, can the exit queue still remain low? Are you more concerned about the staking rate continuing to rise, or the entry queue accelerating again? #ETH #EthereumStaking #OnChainData#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
After the July Fed minutes were released, the 9-to-3 vote fully exposed the internal divisions. Logan, Harker, and Kashkari directly voted against, insisting on another 25 basis point hike.
🤔 Why is the division so big?
Hawks are eager to put out the fire
Inflation is dropping too slowly, and with AI infrastructure funds aggressively leveraging, they worry that if they don't clamp down now, inflation could rebound at any time.
Doves dare not push hard
Employment and economic sentiment are already cooling, and blind rate hikes could directly push the economy into recession.
Forecast for the next moves
According to current CME data, the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is about 67%, with a 30% chance of a hike, and the hope for rate cuts this year has been completely shattered.
September will most likely hold steady, but there could be one more hike this year. If CPI rebounds slightly in the next two months, the Fed may raise rates by another 25 basis points in Q4 to assert its authority.
AI and risk assets face reshuffling
The minutes rarely mentioned AI valuation and financing risks. If high interest rates persist longer or tighten further, high-valuation tech stocks and the crypto market, which rely entirely on liquidity, are very likely to face a deflationary correction.
Do you think the Fed will hike rates again this year?
DYOR Gold has risen above $4450, and Wall Street is starting to call for $5000.
Morgan Stanley expects gold could break $5000 by 2027 or earlier.
The logic supporting this forecast is not complicated: easing expectations for Fed rate hikes, a weaker dollar, a rebound in gold ETF demand, and continued buying from central banks and physical buyers.
But what’s more noteworthy is that long-term US Treasury yields remain high, yet gold prices have not been pushed down.
Normally, high interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold; now this relationship has weakened, indicating that concerns go beyond interest rates to government debt, fiscal deficits, and currency purchasing power.
From $4450 to $5000, the increase is about 12%, and this target is not exaggerated. However, gold is no longer at a low level, and inflation data and Fed statements could trigger sharp pullbacks.
#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 Trump urgently convenes crypto summit, will the CLARITY Act pass in September?
In July 2025, the House passed it with a high vote of 294 to 134. Everyone thought it was secured then.
In May 2026, the Senate Banking Committee passed it bipartisanly with a vote of 15 to 9. Still looking solid.
Then what?
It stalled for a whole year.
The bill got stuck at the full Senate vote. Tokenized stocks, stablecoin rewards, Trump family conflicts of interest—three huge obstacles.
The House passed it, the committee passed it, but the full Senate can’t get it done.
On August 19, Trump couldn’t sit still.
He held a crypto summit at the White House, with Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong, Gemini’s Winklevoss twins, and Ripple’s CEO all attending.
Trump directly said: "To keep America ahead of China, this bill must pass."
Armstrong predicted on site: debate will end and vote will happen on September 18, with the bill getting over 60 votes.
Trump added: "This is very bipartisan, many Democrats support it."
Senate Majority Leader John Thune scheduled the cloture vote for September 15 at 2:15 PM.
The 60-vote threshold.
Republicans have a slim majority in the Senate. To get 60 votes, Republicans must be fully present and pull at least 7 Democrats.
But the obstacles are more than that—moral clauses, stablecoin rewards, developer protections, three landmines.
The biggest variable comes from the American Bankers Association (ABA).
On August 19, ABA President Rob Nichols stated support for the bill’s passage, but—
ABA demands tightening the stablecoin rewards clause, banning stablecoin rewards that are "substantially similar" to interest payments.
ABA plans to push amendments before the September vote.
If amendments pass, "activity-based rewards" will be severely restricted.
Galaxy Digital has downgraded the probability of passage in 2026 from 75% down to 10%.
Polymarket’s data is even worse, once dropping to 13%, barely rebounding to 17%-19% after Trump’s speech.
Predict.fun shows probability rising from 18% to 22% after Trump’s speech.
Positive factors: Trump personally applying pressure, full White House support, industry giants lobbying collectively.
Negative factors: moral clauses unresolved, stablecoin rewards targeted by banks, very high 60-vote threshold, less than a month left.
September 15 is the Senate procedural vote.
It’s not the final passage, but a life-or-death gate on whether it can move forward. $BTC ETH 1882→2282, 100x leverage for 5 ETH, unrealized gains of about $2,000, BTC rose to 69,598, approaching the 70,000 mark. Do you recognize that the real risk of this position is not a price drop, but the still unregulated liquidation criteria and the temptation to realize profits every hour? The facts confirmed in the original text are clear. While ETH rose about 21.2% from 1882 to 2282, the author held a long position of 5 ETH (worth about $9,400) with 100x leverage. BTC started at 64,000 and pushed up to 69,598, now just shy of the 70,000 mark. The temporal background of this article is roughly one week, and I have passed through both periods of loss and sideways movement along the way. All these figures are only those specified in the original text. The significance of this event for market structure is that it shows a typical pattern of position behavior. The extreme leverage of 100x carries both the burden of funding fees and the risk of liquidation. When ETH moves sideways around 1900,#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
Trump: The U.S. once discussed "accumulating a considerable amount" of Bitcoin — the strategic reserve narrative ignites the market, but policy implementation is still underway
In the early hours of August 20, the White House held a meeting with cryptocurrency industry executives. Trump attended and spoke, stating that the U.S. government had discussed accumulating a "considerable amount" of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, emphasizing that the U.S. should maintain a leading position in Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, prediction markets, and AI. He urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act as soon as possible. Policy achievements mentioned include: strategic Bitcoin reserves, stablecoin legislation, and banning CBDCs.
The market will continue to assess whether the U.S. government's narrative of holding coins can transition from policy statements to clearer reserve arrangements.
Trump said "discussed buying BTC," and the market responded with a violent surge — but there is still a long way to go between "discussed" and "decided to buy." Short-term sentiment drives the market, while the long-term outlook depends on the bill's implementation.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Today's hottest topic is the big coin breaking through 70,000.
$BTC has already surpassed 72,000, $ETH is even stronger at 2,330,
altcoins are also getting restless. Many people have started shouting that the bull market is back, and the altcoin season is coming.
Personally, I think don't get too excited. This wave is mainly forced liquidations of shorts, combined with the Treasury's buybacks and the White House discussing regulation, these positive factors are pushing it up. Genuine, sustained buying hasn't fully caught up yet. Although ETFs are flowing back, overall it still looks like a bottom rebound, not a nonstop main upward wave.
There might be another short-term surge, but don't go all in chasing the highs. The pullback is the real opportunity to get in, keep a steady mindset, and don't end up standing on the mountain top again. Bitcoin quietly returned to 68,000, but what really moved me wasn't that number. Have you noticed that every time the market warms up, it's actually those who have the least time to watch the market that laugh first? Today is my 360th day of regular investment. When I opened my account, it happened to coincide with Qixi, and BTC hit around 68,000 USDT. Although it's still some way from my average price of 81007, the speed at which it recovers does lift my spirits a bit. During these 360 days, I invested 0.1 USDT per hour, activating 6,632 times rain or shine. Dropping from 90,000 to 50,000 and then climbing back, riding a roller coaster until numb. Happy when it rises, and when it falls, treat it as a bargain chip. The best thing about dollar-cost averaging is that it gradually wears down your sensitivity to short-term fluctuations. But today, what I want to talk about isn't my account, but rather the signals hidden between sector strengths and weaknesses. On the surface, it looks like a single surge in the market, but if you look at the knockoffs, you'll find the divergence is very clear. In this round of rebound, the sectors that truly caught up were those supported by narratives, such as AI-related and RWA-related sectors, while meme coins that relied solely on sentiment to boost the market seemed to lack momentum. This indicates that the market is shifting from "everything will rise" to "only rising logically enough," risk appetite has not fully opened, and funds have become more selective. The logic of the bulls is that once BTC holds a key position, it will gradually spill over to ETH, then pass on to high-quality altcoins, forming rotation. But the risks are also hidden in the same place—if BTC keeps oscillating here and fails to break previous highs, then the altcoin rally may be fundamentally affectedThis round of ETH's surge is the result of four overlapping factors: macro liquidity easing, regulatory tailwinds, ETF capital inflows, and short squeeze. As of this morning, ETH has broken through $2300, with a 24-hour increase of 20.44%, far exceeding BTC's 7-8% rise in the same period, representing a typical "high Beta" elastic asset breakout.
🚀 Four major drivers behind the surge
· Macro "liquidity injection" (core trigger): The U.S. Treasury doubled the long-term bond repurchase limit to $4 billion, and the 30-year yield fell from its high, directly igniting risk assets including ETH.
· Regulatory easing expectations: Trump is pushing crypto legislation such as the "CLARITY Act" at the White House, while the SEC is advancing new rule drafts. As a smart contract platform, ETH is expected to benefit more than BTC.
· Massive capital inflows: On August 19, ETH ETF net inflows reached $189 million (with BlackRock alone accounting for $122 million), reversing previous outflows.
· Epic short squeeze: Over $2 billion liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with ETH shorts liquidated over $1 billion. Shorts were forced to cover by buying, creating a "rise-short squeeze-rise" death spiral.
📈 Major technical breakthrough
ETH has, for the first time since this bear market, reclaimed the weekly EMA50 "golden line," completely breaking through the key bear market resistance zone. Trading volume surged 402%, confirming the upward move.
🎯 Key points to watch next
· $2300 is the touchstone: ETH must hold above $2300 and complete a pullback confirmation to truly complete the support flip. Larger resistance lies in the $2420-$2500 range.
· ETH/BTC ratio: ETH is starting to decouple from BTC and form an independent trend. Sustained rise in this ratio would signal genuine capital rotation.
⚠️ Short-term overheating risks
· Technical indicators overbought: 4-hour RSI is as high as 92.14, funding rates have turned positive, greatly increasing the probability of a short-term pullback.
· High risk chasing the rally: The risk-reward ratio for chasing above $2300 is poor. If it spikes then quickly falls, it may retest the $2200-$2230 support zone.
This ETH rally is unusually strong but is currently classified as an "early reversal attempt" rather than a "confirmed reversal." The key is whether ETH can hold $2300 and whether the ETH/BTC ratio can continue to strengthen in the coming days. It's better to wait for a pullback confirmation than to let a big bullish candle disrupt trading discipline. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
Fed internal divisions hotter than the data
The July FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve ended with a 9-3 vote to maintain the federal funds rate in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. The dissenters: Logan, Harker, and Kashkari advocated a 25 basis point hike; the majority supported holding steady; subtle signals: the minutes showed "several officials inclined to raise rates," and "many participants believed that if inflation does not continue to decline, policy may need to tighten further."
Key data released after the July meeting has changed:
Cooling CPI: overall CPI dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%, core CPI from 2.6% to 2.5%; weakening employment: July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, the first negative since February 2025. These data weaken the case for an immediate rate hike, with CME data showing about a 67% probability of rates remaining unchanged in September.
The minutes also mentioned three major risks that could affect financial stability:
1. Rapid financing of AI infrastructure
2. High valuations of AI stocks
3. Increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury market
The key market divergence now is not just "whether to hike in September," but how inflation, long-term interest rates, and AI valuation risks will change the overall pricing logic of risk assets.
The 9-3 vote appears calm on the surface, but internal divisions are greater than the numbers suggest. Inflation is not dead, AI valuations remain high—how much longer can the Fed's "patience" last?
$BTC $ETH $SNDK rose from 1243 to a peak at 1826 and faced resistance, with a large volume of sell orders emerging. The highs are getting lower and lower, initiating a deep pullback after the big rally.
The short-term bearish force is stronger; the current rebound is just a brief pause in the downtrend, and the overall trend has not reversed yet. If you want to go long to catch the rebound, you must wait for a stabilization signal and not rush to bottom-fish.
Long entry reference: 1540‑1560
First target 1640‑1670, further target 1710‑1720 #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue? #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $HYPE surging past $70 again is within whose expectations? Why wasn't it considered expected before the rise? Did you tell Trump to push Hyperliquid into the US market?
After the rise, it's all "I knew it," "inevitable," "perfect technical resonance."
I'm tired of watching!
Finding reasons to comfort yourself for not getting in is fine.
No one predicted this rally.
The SEC proposed crypto asset regulations, the Treasury expanded US debt repurchases, and the White House gathered a bunch of crypto bigwigs for a meeting. Market sentiment suddenly flipped from fear to greed.
$HYPE, as the leader in the decentralized perpetual contract sector, with good liquidity and strong narrative, caught the attention of capital, surging more than twenty points in a day to $70, just following the trend.
But some people just like to pretend to be prophets.
So, if I say HYPE could reach $200 this year, would anyone believe it? Last night, the crypto market experienced a shocking rally: Bitcoin and Ethereum surged across the board, mainstream coins surged collectively, and within 24 hours, billions in short positions were liquidated. Over a hundred thousand traders suffered liquidations during the rally, and market sentiment instantly shifted from cautious pessimism to a frenzied FOMO state. Many people wake up and look at the soaring candlesticks, wondering: what kind of force has pulled the long-consolidating crypto world into a major bullish candlestick? Is this the starting point of a new bull market, or is it a pulse-style short squeeze driven by multiple positive factors resonating together? The market never explodes without reason. This round of rally is not driven by a single news but by a shift in regulatory expectations, macro liquidity recovery, derivatives crowding with short sellers, and spot funds positioning in advance. Multiple factors collide to form concentrated price release. The first and most direct trigger came from a significant improvement in expectations at the U.S. regulatory level. Recently, the White House held a crypto industry summit, publicly expressing its intention to end the "war on crypto," urging Congress to advance the implementation of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, clearly defining the regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC, and establishing a clear compliance framework for crypto assets. At the same time, the SEC has signaled new rules, allowing some token financings to exempt securities registration, greatly reducing compliance pressure in the industry. For Ethereum, this round of gains far exceeded Bitcoin's, mainly because Ethereum has long been shrouded in the shadow of "whether it is classified as a security," with its valuation always at a discount. The warming regulatory stance directly dissolved the biggest market windObserving the sky at night, this wave of Bitcoin went from 64,000 to 69,000 (once touched 72,000 in the afternoon), which is not a bull rebound at all, but a dog trader's chain scheme.
Last night, four shots fired simultaneously: White House crypto meeting + SEC exempted some token registrations + Treasury Secretary doubled bond buybacks + dollar plunge, the short side was sacrificed—29.9 billion exploded across the entire network in 24 hours, shorts accounted for over 90%, and 93.5% of shorts liquidated within 1 hour.
This morning CZ added a finishing blow: Bitcoin still follows the four-year cycle, the super cycle hasn't materialized yet, currently in a bear market phase. Don't rush, it's far from a raging bull.
Fear and greed index this morning was 46 (fear), at noon 62 (greed)—in half a day, it switched from scared to missing out, new money was squeezed out of shorts and immediately turned bullish, everyone on X is shouting the bear market only has four months before a quick bull rebound.
The dog traders will still have to pump it further, bringing this 62 greed crowd in to hang at the peak, then reverse to a sharp drop. This script has been played hundreds of times in 2019 and 2023.
I firmly refuse to chase the rise. At worst, I'll miss out but never catch the falling knife. The bull market isn't coming that fast, I haven't bottomed yet, $BTC is still on the rhythm waiting for 40,000.
Anyway, I'll hold $OKB to the death as my bottom support, betting OKX will survive the next round. Bitcoin will rise on its own, I'll wait for mine.
What got blown up are leverages, not the cycle. What got trapped is greed, not me.
Comrades, when paths cross, the brave win—let's crush the dog traders. 🐶
(PS: The above is all personal speculation and does not constitute investment advice. Profit and loss at your own risk)
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC BTC breaks through $72,000: This rise is not a simple rebound; the real market phase is just entering a critical stage
Bitcoin suddenly accelerated, and many people were still doubting if this was the "last wave of a bull trap," but the price has directly broken through a key resistance level.
On August 20, BTC quickly stood near $72,000, with a 24-hour increase once expanding to double digits, breaking the months-long consolidation range. Even more exciting, this rally was accompanied by large-scale short liquidations, forcing a massive amount of leveraged funds to exit in a short time, pushing the price further upward. Recent data shows that the crypto market's 24-hour liquidation scale is close to $3 billion, with a large portion coming from short positions.
However, I believe this time it cannot be simply understood as "liquidations driving the rise."
Liquidations are just an accelerator, not the engine.
What truly deserves attention is that the capital environment is changing.
In the past few months, BTC has been in a very contradictory state: the price did not collapse significantly, but the upward momentum was also lacking. A large amount of capital was waiting for a clearer direction, and leveraged funds kept betting on pullbacks, causing bearish sentiment to concentrate increasingly.
When the price broke through the key level, the funds originally waiting for a drop were forced to stop losses, forming a typical short squeeze.
This also explains why this rise was so fast.
After the price breakout, selling pressure decreased, and short covering turned into additional buying, ultimately creating an accelerated rally. Similar situations are not uncommon in historical cycles; real big moves often start not when everyone is bullish but when market disagreement is at its peak.
However, $72,000 is not the end but a new test.
From a technical structure perspective, BTC standing back in an important resistance area means the previous consolidation may be over, but two key factors need to be observed next.
The first is volume.
Breakout is only the first step; whether it can hold determines the trend. If the rise mainly relies on leverage, and spot funds do not continue to flow in, a quick pullback at high levels is likely.
The second is institutional capital.
Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin ETF fund flows have been an important variable affecting the market. Compared to past retail-driven cycles, BTC increasingly resembles an institutional asset, with ETF funds, USD liquidity, and macro policy changes having more obvious impacts on price.
Recent changes in U.S. fiscal market policies have also improved risk asset sentiment, with capital starting to seek high-yield assets again, giving Bitcoin a boost.
But there is an easily overlooked issue here.
The faster the rise, the easier short-term sentiment overheats.
Many started chasing after the breakout above $72,000, but history tells us that truly healthy rallies are often not continuous surges but involve a turnover after the breakout, allowing new funds to replace old ones.
If BTC can hold near $72,000 and ETF funds continue to flow in, this rally may gradually shift from a short-term rebound to a trend recovery.
But if it quickly falls back to the key area after the breakout, this rise may be more of a pulse move caused by leverage liquidation.
My view is that the biggest change in BTC now is not how much the price has risen but that market participants' attitudes are changing.
Many previously waited for lower prices, thinking the cycle was over; but when the price truly breaks through, capital often reassesses the trend.
The most interesting part of investing is here: many opportunities do not appear when everyone is certain but when everyone hesitates.
What really needs attention next is not how much BTC can rise in a day but whether it can complete the transition from "breakout" to "trend confirmation."
If it passes this test, $72,000 may only be a new starting point, not the end.
Of course, the closer to the key level, the greater the risk. Personally, I prefer to wait for a pullback confirmation rather than chase highs when sentiment is hottest. Patience is needed when a trend just starts, and calmness is even more necessary when the trend overheats.
Price is more honest than words.
This time, Bitcoin used a rapidly rising candlestick to tell everyone: capital has not left; it is just waiting for a reason to re-enter.
$BTC $SNDK $ETH
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ Old K's gold outlook for the evening of August 20
After gold surged, it began to pull back, falling from the high of 4527. The hourly candles have consecutively closed bearish, MACD red bars are shrinking, indicating a weakening of bullish momentum. It has been in a high-level pullback and repair phase. The position hasn't changed much, so Old K still sticks to the midday strategy for operations, with minor adjustments possible on the short side.
Short-term surge in the 4510-4495 range 🉑 for small-scale pullback trading.
The market pullback still looks to stabilize in the 4460-80 range 🉑 consider going long with the trend. #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 $XAU Things are happening... The United States is beginning to actively address two major uncertainties that previously suppressed risk assets: on one hand, the Treasury Department is intervening in the continuously spiraling long-term US Treasury yields, and on the other hand, the White House continues to push for the implementation of a Crypto regulatory framework. But the problem lies precisely here: the Treasury's repurchase operations cannot solve the US debt problem, and the Federal Reserve has not truly shifted to easing. So, is this rally the starting point of a policy shift, or is the market prematurely trading on a "expectation"? The real questions the market needs to answer may just be beginning. 1. The first positive factor: The US Treasury begins intervening in the long-term Treasury market. Direct change: The 30-year Treasury yield once surged to 5.34%, a new high since 2007, and the total US debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time, making long-term financing costs and fiscal pressure the market focus. Policy action: The US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, increasing the single repurchase size of 10-30 year Treasuries from the previous $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective from September 9 to November 4. Ostensible purpose: To improve liquidity in the long-term bond market and alleviate the pressure caused by the rapid rise in long-term yields on financial markets and financing costs. What the market is truly trading: Long-term yields soar → Treasury begins active intervention → Expectations of a peak in long-term rates rise → Financial conditions marginally ease → Risk assets regain liquidity premium. The Treasury's actions cannot solve the US fiscal deficit, but at least indicate that policymakers have begun to respond to pressures in the long-end market.Bitcoin has experienced a strong rebound, rising steadily from the 60,000+ range to retake the $70,000 level. Many in the market attribute this rally to Trump. While it is undeniable that he added fuel to the fire, this round of gains is the result of multiple forces resonating together and cannot be simply attributed to a single event.
On August 19, Trump met with several crypto industry executives at the White House and publicly called on Congress to accelerate the passage of the CLARITY Act, signaling that the U.S. continues to embrace the crypto sector, which greatly boosted industry sentiment.
However, macro liquidity is the true trigger for this rally. The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, directly driving down Treasury yields. Market expectations for a looser liquidity environment quickly heated up, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, directly benefited.
After breaking through key resistance, a massive wave of short positions in the futures market were liquidated one after another, creating a forced short squeeze; meanwhile, spot ETF funds flowed back in, with spot buying following suit. Policy catalysts, improved macro liquidity, spot capital inflows, and short squeeze conditions all synchronized perfectly, collectively pushing BTC back above $70,000.
Therefore, this rally is not something that can be triggered merely by Trump's verbal calls; it is the combined effect of policy, macro factors, capital, and futures market dynamics.
Looking ahead, if Trump can continue to push for the implementation of crypto regulatory legislation and the $70,000 key level holds firm, then the height of this rally can indeed be expected to reach even further. $BTC $ETH In the early hours of August 20, ETH broke through $2,200, reaching a high of $2,285.
It rose 18% in the past 24 hours.
In the past two months, every time ETH bounced to $1,950, it was pushed back, repeatedly grinding for nearly two months.
This time, it surged straight past $2,200, not even stopping at $2,000.
At the same time, something happened with ETFs—on August 19, the Ethereum spot ETF had a single-day net inflow of $189.1 million, setting the highest single-day net inflow record in nearly 9 months. BlackRock's ETHA contributed $122.1 million, and Fidelity's FETH followed with $36.54 million. Among the nine ETFs, none experienced outflows.
Net inflows have continued for three consecutive days. In previous months, institutions' attitude toward Ethereum was "buy then sell, sell then buy," but three consecutive days of positive inflows is the first occurrence since June. Someone is continuously allocating ETH, not just engaging in short-term speculation. $ETH Nethermind, a core contributor to the Ethereum ecosystem, announced a significant shift today.
... Exiting the LayerZero decentralized validation network business and migrating cross-chain infrastructure to Chainlink CCIP.
Nethermind did not specify the exact reasons, but the timing is worth pondering. In April this year, Kelp DAO's rsETH cross-chain bridge was attacked, resulting in a loss of about $116.5 million, and the LayerZero ecosystem faced enormous security pressure at that time. After that incident, multiple companies began migrating their cross-chain operations away from LayerZero.
As one of the core development teams of Ethereum, Nethermind's technology choices have a demonstrative effect on the entire ecosystem. This shift to Chainlink CCIP signifies that the competition in the cross-chain infrastructure space is entering a new phase—security has become the primary consideration surpassing technical convenience. $BTC $ETH BTC reclaiming $69,000 matters less than the breadth behind it. ETH up 17.39% and SOL up 10.38% against BTC’s 7.95% points to a rapid expansion in risk appetite, but also makes this move more vulnerable to positioning unwinds.
My base case is that this is a liquidity-driven rebound, not yet a durable macro reset. The FOMC 9-to-3 split keeps the policy signal unusually contested, so I would treat sustained BTC strength as the cleaner confirmation rather than chase the highest-beta outperformers.
Not advice, just analysis.$BTC $72,000, 11% in one day
But on the same chart, why did two institutions give completely opposite diagnoses?
Money is flowing in, shorts are liquidating, and the divergence is intensifying.
On August 20, Bitcoin's price surged significantly, reaching an intraday high of about $72,500, with a daily increase of approximately 11%.
Regarding the current market stage, two institutional reports offered different perspectives.
Glassnode's report on August 19 pointed out that Bitcoin's on-chain structure is still in the "capitulation phase," and selling pressure has not been fully released. About 187,000 people worldwide were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with liquidation amounts reaching $3.49 billion, of which short liquidations were about $2.92 billion. The institution believes the true bull-bear dividing line is at $75,800 (the real market average), and before this, the nature of the rebound still needs further observation.
VanEck's mid-August report stated that 8 out of 12 capitulation indicators it tracks have been triggered, suggesting the market may be approaching an accumulation phase, with the bottom likely confirmed between September and November 2026. However, the institution also noted that historically, after similar signals appear, the average returns over 90 and 180 days are below the long-term benchmark, making it more suitable for a long-term perspective.
On the funding side, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded large net inflows for two consecutive days, with a single-day net inflow of $517 million on August 19, hitting a three-month high; on-chain data shows that large holders have increased their net holdings by about 43,000 BTC in the past 60 days, equivalent to about $3.1 billion.
Overall, the current market bottom may have appeared, but a trend reversal still requires effective confirmation at the $75,800 level.
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
$ETH $SNDK Pharaoh straightforwardly says, Pop Mart's financial report superficially shows a "growth shift," but in reality, it's an "IP handover" — LABUBU is slowing down, while Star People is taking off directly. Whether this new king can hold the stage depends on its endurance. Here are the data: Revenue of 17.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, and profit attributable to shareholders of 5.038 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. Gross margin is 69.7%, adjusted net profit margin is 30%. Cash on hand is 12.44 billion, the financial foundation is indeed solid. The biggest highlight: the explosion of Star People. Star People’s revenue in the first half of the year was 2.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 580.6%, jumping from a rising IP directly to the group's second largest IP, leading the growth rate across all product lines. The Valentine’s Day series and McDonald's collaboration directly maximized momentum, and the first vinyl plush series "Animal Farm" was already priced 10 times higher before release. This is no longer "growth," it’s a "phenomenal breakout." Where are the hidden risks? The THE MONSTERS series, where LABUBU belongs, had revenue of 4.45 billion in the first half, down 7.5% year-on-year. Although still number one, the growth rate has turned. Despite World Cup marketing and global tours, revenue actually dropped, indicating the IP’s popularity is indeed returning to normal. Overseas revenue is clearly under pressure. Asia-Pacific revenue dropped 9.7% year-on-year, Americas dropped 16.5%, with online channels being the main drag — Asia-Pacific online revenue dropped 39.8%, Americas online dropped 45.6%. Overseas revenue fell from 5.62 billion in the same period last year to 4.97 billion, a decrease of 11.6%. The reason is the disappearance of online traffic dividends Minutes Hawkish, Dollar Plunges, Gold Surges, BTC Breaks 69K — Who Says Crypto Still Depends on the Fed? The Fed minutes were hawkish. Bitcoin $BTC broke 69K. Both happened on the same day. Think about that. In the early hours of August 20 Beijing time, the Fed released the July FOMC meeting minutes. 9 votes in favor, 3 against keeping rates unchanged, and three members advocated a 25 basis point hike. Most officials said: if inflation doesn't come down, a rate hike is necessary. A purely hawkish signal. So how did the market react? The dollar index fell below the 99 mark for the first time since June, closing down 0.85%. Spot gold surged $188, breaking through $4500, closing up 4.35%. Spot silver surged 5.8%. Bitcoin returned to $69,000 for the first time in nearly 3 months, once approaching the 70K mark. $1.44 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with over $1 billion short positions closed in just one hour. "Hawkish" minutes, "dovish" market. Who's wrong? Neither. You misunderstood. The minutes look hawkish but aren't that hawkish in reality. Only "several" members supported a direct rate hike in July, still far from a majority. At the end of July, the market bet the probability of a September hike was over 70%. Now? CME data shows a 67.3% chance of rates staying unchanged in September. The market has already priced out the rate hike expectation. Minutes inherently lag. They record discussions from July 28-29. The past three weeks have seen... Bitcoin surged about 4,400 in 50 minutes? This isn't buying pressure; it's shorts "cutting losses and feeding the rally." On 8/19, BTC surged to around 4,400? This isn't buying pressure; it's shorts "cutting losses and feeding the rally." On 8/19, BTC surged to about 69,500, and crypto stock COIN rose 11%.
Trigger: The U.S. Treasury announced doubling the long-term Treasury buyback scale from $2 billion per transaction to at least $4 billion. The 30-year Treasury yield dropped from 5.34% to 5.19%, easing pressure on risk assets suppressed by high interest rates.
BTC climbed from a low of about 64,200 straight up to above 69,700, with a daily gain of over 8%. ETH was even stronger, +18% reaching $2,200. This is not a fundamental reversal but a typical macro liquidity expectation reversal.
Short-term note: Fear & Greed may quickly shift from fear to greed; RSI already shows overbought. The short squeeze rally feels good, but once the fuel burns out, it usually leads to consolidation.
Are you now chasing longs, taking profits, or got liquidated? Share your positions in the comments.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ Tonight at 8:30, the US July CPI will be released. This is the biggest macro variable this week, and the market is now focused on one word: down! Market expectations: CPI year-on-year 3.4%, previous 3.5% Core CPI year-on-year 2.5%, previous 2.6% If CPI meets or even falls below expectations → September rate cut expectations heat up → dollars under pressure, risk assets are likely to rebound, BTC is looking toward 65,000. But if CPI instead reaches 3.6% or even 3.7%, → stickiness is priced in by the market again→ gold continues to rise, BTC could fall below $62,000. Gold broke through $4,400, with risk aversion clearly intensifying; Previously, Abraxas Capital moved about $110 million in Tether Gold within three days, indicating that funds are shifting toward gold. Looking at BTC: currently around $63,861, with 24 hours fluctuating between 63,600 and 64,200, volatility pushed to a nearly two-year low, and the ADX at only 11—a typical calm before a storm. The derivatives market is also not relaxed: BTC long-short ratio is 1.8, with bulls clearly crowded; In the past period, about $676 million was liquidated across the entire network, with long positions accounting for 69%. More importantly, today four wallets placed about $340 million in BTC short positions above $64,000. So what do you watch tonight? CPI below expectations→ Bulls may push directly to 65,000 or even 66,000; CPI Exceeds Expectations → Bulls Crowded and Potential Crushing,#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ From a professional perspective, let's compare this rally with the rebound after March 12, 2020.
After March 12, 2020, BTC rose from 3800 to 10000, an increase of 163%, taking 30 days.
This time it rose from 64000 to 72000, an increase of 12.5%, in just 1 day.
The speed is faster but the increase is smaller, indicating this rally is more of a short squeeze rather than a trend reversal.
A true trend reversal requires new capital inflow, not shorts being forced to close positions.
Resistance is strong at 72500, support at 70500, and a break above 72500 targets 75000.
Currently recovering from a 200,000 U loss; never hold a position without stop loss, as staying alive means having a chance. ETH Evening Core Logic · Daily chart breakout: 1937, 2026, 2153 were successively pushed all the way to 2317. 2317 is a symmetrical target on the daily chart, indicating normal pause and oscillation here, not a top signal. Daily defense: If the pullback doesn't break below 2153, there's still a chance to move upward. The next big target is 2465. Long positions near 2465 are actively pocketed with most of the profits, while holding a bottom position is even more strategic for the game. Qualification: ETH hasn't finished rising; it's highly likely they're waiting for Bitcoin to reach a high level and hold sideways first, then ETH will make another follow-up rally. Hourly range: 2289-2222 box grinding, no clear direction. · Long trigger: Break through 2289 on increased volume to chase long, target 2339, then 2390. If 2339 is also broken, it will most likely break to 2492. · Short selling trigger: 4-hour close below 2252, test 2222; Only if it effectively breaks below 2222 will the downside open, watch 2159-2158. Volatility discipline: If 2289 doesn't go up or 2222 doesn't fall, keep shaking. Don't open random trades in the middle of the range. Iron Rule of Volume: Always Look at Trading Volume, Don't Be Fooled by Fake Breakouts. The price is not low, so you must take your stop-loss carefully. BTC Evening Core Logic · Core Lifeline: 67362. If the 4-hour level pullback doesn't break through, this is generally bullish. Don't always think about long-term bearing; only after breaking below the short position can you be qualified to discuss the market pattern. Structural Analysis: 4-hour reversal has occurred, W-bottom emerged, sideways box break out, head and shoulders top invalidated (after right shoulder reached a new high). Now, it's not a rebound, yesIn the past 24 hours, $3.1 billion worth of cryptocurrency short positions have been liquidated.Once the $ZEC Grayscale trust filing revision news came out, a bunch of people in the group asked, "Can ZEC still chase?" I entered a long position at 501 a long time ago, but not because of that news. To be clear, the market had already moved before the news came out—after consolidating below 500, it broke out with volume. Whether this was because capital knew in advance or purely technical behavior doesn't matter; what matters is that "the market changed before the news."
My anti-FOMO point is: when everyone wants to buy only after seeing the news, that's often the most expensive time. It's currently at 561, with unrealized gains around 600%, but I'm actually thinking about when to reduce rather than add. Why? Because the news is already priced in; whether it can continue to rise depends on capital, not news. If 581 can't be surpassed on low volume, that means the news-driven rally is being cashed out.
Right now, I'm watching the 540-550 support zone. If it holds, a second wave is possible; if it breaks, it means the "Grayscale expectation" for this wave has already been run ahead of by others. $BTC $ETH Brothers, tonight's data is quite interesting.
Bitcoin just pulled off a big bullish candle with a 7% gain, and the on-chain activity immediately exploded — short-term holders dumped 44,000 $BTC to exchanges in one day, marking the biggest single-day profit-taking run this year. These guys bought in around 67,100, and as soon as they broke even, they rushed to hit the sell button, afraid that holding on to the profits even a second longer would burn their hands.
But the funny thing is, half a year ago, such a massive inflow would have been a clear "bear army rally" signal, yet today the market acts like it didn’t see a thing. Why? Because Trump and Basent teamed up to feed the crypto world a big booster — on one hand, saying the US is considering directly buying BTC, and on the other, pushing long-term bond yields down. The policy narrative suddenly got bigger and rounder, even old bears like Darkfost have changed their tune saying "this is a bull market confirmation."
I just want to ask: with 44,000 coins dumped like that, and the price not crashing, who’s quietly buying at the bottom? Is it real money institutions grabbing chips on policy tailwinds, or retail investors fomoing out of their minds?
More importantly, is Trump’s talk of "buying Bitcoin" just a campaign slogan or is he serious? This guy is always full of hot air, but if this time he’s serious, 44,000 coins probably won’t even be enough to fill his teeth gaps.🚀 $BTC surged to $72,490, with a 24h increase of over 11%, hitting a new high since June 2; $ETH followed with a 19% rise, $SOL +13%.
This is not retail buying, but an epic short squeeze: 184,800 people liquidated globally in 24 hours, totaling $3.264 billion, over 90% of which were short positions, marking the largest scale since records began in 2021.
Three catalysts:
The U.S. Treasury doubled the repurchase scale of 10–30 year Treasuries → long-end yields fell, and the dollar weakened
Trump's White House met with crypto executives from Coinbase, Circle, etc., urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act
The crowded shorts stacked below $65,000 were broken through, triggering chained liquidations, and passive buying further pushed prices up
⚠️ IG technical analysts warn: the next key level is whether $75,000 can hold; New Fire Research Institute notes this rebound is a concentrated release of "crowded shorts + regulatory benefits + rate decline," the short squeeze momentum is one-time, and future depends on whether spot ETFs continue net inflows.
Current price above 72,000, be cautious chasing highs, and even more cautious with leverage.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ $BTC ETH performed strongly today, and I think many people have underestimated the power of "confidence recovery".
In the market, confidence is very important.
Many times, price increases are not just because of money.
It's also because people are willing to take risks.
Previously, everyone was cautious.
Now they are starting to pay attention again.
This change itself may bring more funds.
Of course, confidence can also change.
So we still need to observe.#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ Reviewing this wave of the market, I opened a short at 66000, thinking it couldn't rise further.
But then a single candle shot up to 70000, I didn't hold on, set a stop loss, and accepted the blowout.
But I knew clearly in my heart, this wave is not accidental; it's a triple resonance of short accumulation + news ignition + market maker hedging.
Retail investors always react only after a surge, ending up buying at the top.
Key resistance is strong at 72500, support at 70500, and a break above 72500 targets 75000.
Lost 200,000 U and recovering, never hold a position without a stop loss, as long as you're alive, there's a chance. #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue?
Good evening, I'm Rachel.
Just sat down and opened my computer, and the backend messages exploded.
BTC hit a high of 72,492.9 today, now steady around 71,880. The 24-hour low was 64,428, with a volatility exceeding 12%, volume at 238,800 BTC, and a turnover of $17.172 billion.
The entire market is rising, only the shorts are crying.
I pulled some of the latest data, and there are a few details worth discussing.
First, the long-short ratio has fallen from an extreme but bulls still dominate.
Looking at OKX contract long-short account ratios:
· 1-hour long-short ratio: 1.62
· 4-hour long-short ratio: 1.34
· 1-day long-short ratio: 1.05
From August 19 to today, the long-short ratio has shown an overall downward oscillation—from a high near 2.0 down to 1.62 now. Bull accounts still outnumber shorts, but the gap is narrowing, and market sentiment is returning from "extreme euphoria" to rationality.
Compared to LAB's 9.37 long-short ratio, BTC's structure is much healthier.
Second, open interest is rising, and funding rates have turned positive.
24-hour open interest increased from about 2.1 billion to 2.26 billion (+7.6%), indicating incremental funds are entering rather than just existing positions battling. Funding rates shifted from negative to positive, currently about 0.011%—bulls are willing to pay to hold positions, which is a somewhat positive signal.
Volume and price rising + open interest increasing + positive funding rate, the short-term momentum structure is complete.
Third, who is buying? Active buying volume clearly dominates.
In the past few hours, active buy volume peaked near 38,800 BTC, active sell volume about 29,100—buying exceeded selling by about 9,700 BTC (around $700 million). This scale of buying is not something retail traders can produce.
But note: after the 72,492 high, active buying has declined, indicating the chasing high orders are retreating.
Fourth, 72,500 is the first hurdle.
Today's high was 72,492, just below the 72,500 round number, then pulled back. If it can break through 72,500 with volume next, the upside space opens; if not, a pullback to 70,000 or even 69,500 (the 200-day moving average) to confirm support is highly likely.
My thinking:
72,000 has been broken, but I won't add positions here.
The reason is simple—the 4-hour RSI has already soared to 89, and the daily chart is also overbought. From 64,400 to 72,400, it rose $8,000 in three days; this speed can't continue indefinitely.
If you hold low-position chips—positions below 70,000—you can consider taking partial profits in batches and pocketing the gains. Every step above 72,000 increases short-term selling pressure.
If you are empty-handed and want to chase highs—my advice is to wait. After a pullback to the 69,500-70,000 range (near the 200-day moving average) stabilizes, then enter on the right side; it's much more comfortable than chasing highs now.
72,000 is a milestone, not the end. The real test is whether it can hold tomorrow and the day after.
Finally, a poll:
Do you think BTC can hold above 72,000 this time?
A. Yes, macro liquidity improves + incremental funds enter, continuing to push to 75,000
B. No, overbought + crowded bulls, will pull back to 70,000 or even 69,500
Tell me your judgment in the comments, and I'll check the current long-short ratio.👇
📢 Disclaimer
This content is solely the author's personal opinion and market information sharing, not any investment advice or operational guidance. The digital currency market is highly risky, with volatile prices; past performance does not represent future results. Any investment decisions should be made independently by you, bearing all risks yourself. $BTC #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $ETH
BTC and ETH are rising together, and I think the real test is just beginning
Why?
Because the early stage of a rise is actually not difficult.
The hardest part is the middle.
After the rise, many people will change their mindset.
Start chasing the rally.
Start adding positions.
Start fantasizing.
At this time, the market begins to test people's discipline.
If the rise continues, many will become more and more excited.
If a pullback occurs, some will start to panic.
So truly mature trading is not about being happy when prices rise.
But about maintaining stability through both rises and falls. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ The release of Pop Mart's mid-2026 financial report acts like a prism, simultaneously reflecting the glory and anxiety of the trendy toy industry. Six major IPs generated over ¥1 billion in revenue, 11 IPs earned over ¥100 million, and Starry People surged to become the second largest IP with growth exceeding 580%. These figures are enough to excite the market; however, at the same time, the company owning LABUBU saw revenue decline by about 7.5%, and both the Asia-Pacific and Americas markets experienced downturns, prompting the question: Is this report a sign of a successful shift in growth engines, or a precursor to bottlenecks in overall expansion? Domestic foundation: certainty of high-quality growth. The most certain highlight in the financial report is undoubtedly the performance in the Chinese market. In the first half of the year, revenue in China reached ¥12.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%, while the number of stores did not significantly increase. This means that single-store operational efficiency and member value extraction have substantially improved. With a dense network of over 100 million registered members worldwide and 2,827 robot stores, Pop Mart is no longer just a blind box seller but a consumer platform with strong private domain traffic and scene penetration capabilities. Achieving high performance growth without significant store expansion precisely indicates that its growth model is shifting from rapid territorial expansion to meticulous cultivation, and the improvement in operational quality lays a healthier foundation for long-term development. IP matrix: moving away from single-pole dependenceThis morning, I came to a conclusion. This round of rally is most likely just a rebound and could very well fall back this week. There is precedent for this. In my memory, this situation has happened twice. The first time was on March 2 last year, when Trump said he wanted to establish a cryptocurrency strategic reserve. The second time was on April 9 last year, when Trump suddenly posted on social media announcing a tariff suspension. In my impression, the sudden surge in the crypto market directly related to Trump himself happened these two times. There might be others, but I don't recall any at the moment. —————————————————— Let's take $ETH as an example. Let's first look at the first time. At that time, Trump posted on social media saying he wanted to promote the establishment of a strategic crypto reserve in the US. Then, as I recall, five mainstream cryptocurrencies were mentioned. $ETH was among them, so it surged directly at that time. From the chart, you can see it indeed formed a very beautiful candlestick, but it fell back not long after. Now let's look at the second time. The second time had background: Trump said he would impose high tariffs on a series of countries. The market had a sharp drop before the rally. On April 9, Trump posted on social media announcing the suspension of tariffs. At that time, US officials were still explaining why tariffs were necessary. As a result, Trump directly posted the suspension on social media, making US officials look awkward in front of reporters.Valuation Soars 6.5x in 3 Months: Chip Dark Horse Fractile Lands Huge Order from Anthropic, Is Nvidia's Monopoly About to Be Torn Apart?
A stunning capital miracle has just emerged in Silicon Valley's AI hardware venture capital circle.
Chip startup Fractile is in deep negotiations for a new funding round of up to $600 million, with a pre-money valuation skyrocketing to an extremely exaggerated $6.5 billion.
Just three months ago, this company had completed a $220 million financing round led by top institutions like Accel and Founders Fund, with a post-money valuation of only about $1 billion.
In just one quarter, the valuation surged 6.5 times. In the current overall tightening capital environment, what justifies such an almost irrational rocket-like leap?
The answer lies in a $250 million chip procurement deal they just signed with Anthropic, a leading giant in large language models.
Many think this is just another valuation bubble inflated by venture capital firms, but if you delve into the physical bottlenecks of large model inference, you will see the massive chip ecosystem reshuffle erupting behind it.
First, it is the desperate resistance against Nvidia's GPU memory tax on the inference side.
Over the past two years, Nvidia has almost monopolized the global large model pre-training market with its CUDA ecosystem and powerful general-purpose GPUs. But in today's commercial deployment of large models, the battlefield has fully shifted from pre-training to online inference. For large model companies like Anthropic, which process hundreds of billions of tokens daily and handle long text contexts up to millions of tokens, continuing to run inference on Nvidia's expensive, power-hungry general GPUs results in a cost per token that is financially unsustainable.
Second, Fractile delivers a dimensionality reduction strike against the memory wall.
Fractile's custom architecture chip is deeply integrated with the Transformer model's self-attention mechanism. It no longer pursues general graphics rendering capabilities but stacks all physical transistors on ultra-fast data throughput and memory scheduling. For Anthropic, running Claude model inference services on these custom chips not only reduces latency by several times but also cuts energy consumption and hardware procurement costs by more than half.
This is why Anthropic is willing to decisively place a $250 million order during the startup phase and even plans to further expand procurement in the future.
This sends an extremely strong turning signal to the entire semiconductor industry chain:
On the training side, Nvidia's moat remains impregnable; but on the trillion-scale inference side, major model giants are supporting third-party custom architecture chips (ASICs) at all costs to reduce costs, improve efficiency, and secure supply chains. Nvidia's once absolute profit cake is being sliced bit by bit by these vertical dark horses.
However, from a vision of tens of billions in valuation to truly disrupting the industry, Fractile still faces the most dangerous physical chasm:
Intentional orders on paper are one thing; whether they can secure TSMC's tight advanced packaging capacity and complete high-yield mass production on schedule is another. Historically, countless chip startups have died on the beach, falling at the dawn of mass production yield and compiler ecosystem adaptation.
The second half of AI hardware is no longer an era of one-way idolization of giants. Whoever solves the memory wall and drives inference costs to the floor will dominate the true commercial future.
Fractile's valuation has surged 6.5 times in three months. Do you think custom inference chips can shake Nvidia's throne? In the wave of large model inference cost reduction, do you favor customized ASICs or iterative upgrades of general GPUs?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 🚀 Eight Major Factors Jointly Drive the Strengthening of the Crypto Market
Yesterday, the crypto market surged violently, with BTC breaking through the 70,000 mark, crushing the bears.
This rally is not triggered by a single piece of news but is the result of a triple resonance of macroeconomics, policy, and capital:
1. Expansion of U.S. Treasury Repo (Macro Trigger):
The Treasury Department announced a doubling of long-term Treasury repo scale. Although not QE, it signals market support, causing long-term bond yields to fall and the dollar to weaken, directly benefiting risk assets.
2. SEC Regulatory Breakthrough (Policy Turning Point):
A new "crypto asset regulation" was proposed, providing compliant issuers with financing exemptions and safe harbor, clearly defining issuance rules for the first time and addressing the industry's biggest pain points.
3. White House Summit Endorsement (High-Level Backing):
Trump declared ensuring the U.S. leads in crypto and explicitly supported Hyperliquid's compliant entry into the U.S. The CFTC and SEC chairs promised immediate implementation of new laws, with CEOs of leading exchanges all attending.
4. Imminent Bill Vote (Legislative Expectation):
The Senate is scheduled to vote on the "Clarity Act" on September 15. The White House is actively seeking bipartisan support. If passed, it will establish a comprehensive federal regulatory framework.
5. Continued Dollar Weakness (Macro Tailwind):
The DXY shows a structural downward trend. Institutions predict that if the dollar enters a 5-7 year down cycle, it will create the best historical macro environment for BTC.
6. Passive Short Squeeze (Technical Boost):
Previous pessimism accumulated massive short positions. The dual positive factors triggered a breakout, forcing shorts to cover, creating a "surge-cover-surge" spiral.
7. Continuous ETF Capital Inflow (Real Buying Pressure):
Spot ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive days, totaling over 15,700 $BTC. BlackRock's IBIT accounts for more than half of a single day's volume, indicating real incremental capital.
8. Hyperliquid Compliance Expectation (Sector Catalyst):
Trump explicitly mentioned it, triggering a 24% surge in $HYPE within 24 hours, driving the entire decentralized derivatives sector.
💡 Core Conclusion:
The essence of this rally is the perfect resonance of "macro easing + regulatory implementation + capital return." The key to future trends lies in whether the "Clarity Act" passes smoothly on September 15 and whether the dollar index continues to decline. Risk control remains paramount.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC Right now, this position is really awkward for me—awkward to the extreme.
$BTC spot cost is 75,000, current price 72,500, just 2,500 short, to put it bluntly, it's a needle's difference. The liquidation price for the short contract is 79,000; if the price rises another 6,500, I'll just cry. On one hand, I hope it rises back to break even; on the other, I'm afraid of a liquidation from the rise. Two little voices are fighting in my head, giving me a headache.
Honestly, I know very well this is a classic case of holding a position against the trend. BTC has pulled from 64,500 to 72,500, the short squeeze sentiment is intense and unstoppable. I check the long-short ratio on OKX, and shorts are still being crushed. What's the biggest fear now? It's fooling myself: "If it rises a bit more, I'll break even, so I'll hold the short a bit longer." Usually, the spot just breaks even, but the contract liquidates first, all for nothing.
So now I've set a strict rule for myself: short positions must be prioritized and can't be held naked anymore.
If the price rebounds to $73,000-$73,500, I'll close half of the short to save my skin. If it continues to 75,000, spot has already broken even, I'll close all shorts without hesitation, and even consider reducing some spot to lock in profits. Don't talk to me about "maybe it will go higher," I first ensure I don't get liquidated.
On the spot side, cost is 75,000, position isn't heavy, I can hold a bit more since this is a bull market cycle and there's still long-term opportunity. But absolutely no adding positions to average down, and definitely no going all-in just because I'm close to break-even. Breaking even isn't about gambling; it's about position management.
At the end of the day, what I should do now isn't hope for direction, but reduce exposure. Holding both long and short means fighting myself, making no money and losing fees. Cut the short against the trend first, get back to a single-sided long logic, even if it means less profit, it's better than liquidation.
I've been watching OKX contract data closely; if the funding rate remains high, it means bullish sentiment is overheated and a correction could come anytime, so my shorts still have a chance to escape; if the rate starts to fall and bulls close positions, then I need to exit quickly, don't wait for a spike. In short, surviving is the only way to have a chance for the next cycle.Tomorrow, $SPCX will officially unlock more than 300 million shares, and my direct view is that the downtrend will dominate in the short term. Looking back at the previous unlock, when more than 900 million shares were released, the price not only did not drop but also surged strongly. The main reason I believe is that at that time the stock price was too low, even breaking below the IPO issue price, making the holding institutions reluctant to sell off. Combined with the fact that the entire market at that time was bearish, the capital flow followed the trend The Ministry of Finance raising the upper limit for long-term government bond repos signals localized easing, but the divergence in performance between existing U.S. stock sectors and the crypto market reflects ongoing disagreements within the system about the pace of incremental liquidity injection.
The ultra-long end of U.S. Treasury yields has been pressured downward, with the 30-year yield falling nearly 10 basis points at one point. However, there was no significant buying rebound in the U.S. stock storage and optical module sectors; instead, Bitcoin quickly surged from the $64,000 level to $70,000, indicating that spot and derivatives funds are prioritizing pricing in assets more sensitive to liquidity.
The factors driving capital flow are ranked as follows: expectations of declining long-term nominal interest rates, efficiency of short-term liquidity replenishment, and the sticky risk of macro inflation. The Ministry of Finance raised the repo limit for 10- to 30-year government bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion between September 9 and November 4, directly easing supply pressure on the ultra-long end and prompting funds to absorb premiums ahead of time.
The bullish scenario triggers if the interest rate suppression effect from repos transmits from the ultra-long end to the mid- and short-term ends, and the $70,000 spot buying remains solid after turnover. It is necessary to observe whether Bitcoin can maintain net capital inflows above $70,000; if spot capital accumulation expands and U.S. stock sectors stop falling, liquidity improvement will spread to a broader range of risk assets.
The bearish scenario triggers if persistent inflation causes the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance, leading to a secondary rebound in long-term yields that offsets the repo benefits. If the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield returns to previous highs and financing conditions tighten again, Bitcoin falling below $64,000 will confirm this round of liquidity premium retraction.
If crypto spot fails to follow with sufficient funds and retests $64,000, or if the U.S. tech sector accelerates sell-offs draining existing funds, the easing expectations brought by the Ministry of Finance’s actions will be invalidated.
The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield can maintain its downward channel and the state of spot Bitcoin holdings near the $70,000 level.
#迈威尔获Google芯片协议，财报前AI订单受关注 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元Guys, the market accelerated straight to 72,000, and many people were completely blinded by this short-selling rally. Reviewing the underlying logic: The early morning FOMC minutes were hawkish, but US Treasury buybacks pushed yields lower, the dollar weakened, and regulatory expectations triggered large-scale short positions to be swept through and liquidated, triggering a rapid rally driven by sentiment. The biggest problem in the market right now isn't direction, but severe short-term overbought conditions. The panic and greed index has entered the greed zone, and a large amount of missing funds are rushing in to chase the rally. The faster the rally, the greater the risk of a late-night plunge and shakeout. Don't shout for a bull market restart with a single big bullish candle; this round is a bearish squeeze + sentiment rebound. The Fed's hawkish stance remains unchanged, and geopolitical risks still loom overhead. BTC: Support at 70,500, resistance at 73,200 and 72,000 are currently at the bullish and short battle points; Only with increased volume and holding above 73,200 will the bulls continue to open upside potential; Once the rally loses momentum, 70,500 is the strongest support for the evening. After falling below it, there will be significant profit-taking and pullbacks. ETH: Support at 2230, resistance at 2360, this round is highly elastic, widespread altcoin rally driving market heat, with selling pressure at high levels gradually accumulating. SOL: Support at 87, resistance at 93, volatility sharply amplified, and the risk of chasing the rally is maxed out. 🔥 Evening Practical Advice: 1. The market has been rapidly surging violently; firmly avoid chasing long positions at high levels. Chasing high now is just playing for a tail market, with a poor profit-loss ratio. 2. Approach is to wait for pullbacks to support and stabilize, buying on dips; Only after a high-volume breakout that holds above 73,200 can you lightly position and follow the trend. 3、