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Watching a waterfall with an empty position is very satisfying, but watching a sideways market with a full position is very agonizing. These past two days have been the latter: CPI, PPI, and retail sales have cooled down consecutively, and all the expected drops have already happened, yet the market itself remains stagnant. Why? Because the flip side of all the bad news being out is a catalyst vacuum. At times like this for $BTC, the dumbest move is to chase it because it’s not moving, and the smartest is to admit you have no cards, cover your cards, and wait for the next one. Jackson Hole only deals the cards at the end of the month, so why rush?Let's talk about options magnetism. In the past few days, BTC MaxPain has almost been stuck at $63K, basically coinciding with the current price — the maximum pain point and the spot price are aligned, which means market makers have no strong incentive to push the price in either direction, naturally increasing the probability of sideways movement. The low volatility over the weekend combined with MaxPain near the discount price explains why the market looks like a stagnant pool. $BTC is waiting for a direction, focusing on next week's Jackson Hole, not the recent price spikes. What this means is more important than what has happened.$ETH has been grinding at 1878 for a whole week. My friend said he almost swapped ETH for BTC, but I stopped him. The reason is simple: Glassnode data shows ETH selling pressure has dropped to a historic low, even lower than the 2022 bear market bottom. What does this signal? Those who needed to sell have already sold; what's left are the holders who are holding on tight. Exhausted selling pressure doesn't mean an immediate rebound, but at least it indicates the downside space is narrowing. ETH formed a converging symmetrical triangle this week, with 1855 as the bottom and 1930 as the top, and the amplitude is getting smaller, approaching the apex. A breakout above the 1918-1920 range (where the 100-day moving average and Parabolic SAR are both pressing) targets 1960 and then 2000. A break below 1864 (50-day moving average) targets 1837 and then 1800. Note these two data points: the staking rate rose from 30% at the start of the year to 34.4%, and BitMine alone holds 5.81 million ETH (4.8% of total supply), with 5.07 million staked. Institutions are voting with their feet — ETH's yield feature (staking at 4-5% annualized) is something BTC doesn't have. The only thing making me hesitate is ETFs. This week saw a net outflow of $2.26 million, ending five consecutive weeks of inflows (a total of $566 million over 5 weeks). On August 14, all ETH ETFs had zero inflow, not a single dollar of buy orders. Institutions are hesitant in the short term but accumulating in the long term. #ETH #staking #BitMine #ETF买盘反转，BTC杠杆仓位回升 SpaceX is getting more and more interesting. Nvidia's 13F filings reveal it as SpaceX's second largest holding, with equity valued at 21 billion; Harvard with 2.2 billion and the University of California with 1 billion have also jumped in. Institutions are clustering around a stock that isn't fully tradable yet, which sounds great, but don't forget the unlocking schedule is still lined up ahead. The smaller the float and the tighter the cluster, the more intense the stampede on the unlocking day. Besides $BTC, those who understand know the short squeeze and backlash narrative of pre-IPO stocks. Let's wait and see.Many people ask me why I don't add positions over the weekend. The answer is simple: weekend liquidity is thin, and the cost of spikes is much higher than on weekdays. High leverage positions fear meaningless spikes the most. What I express now is a net short, but net short doesn't mean recklessly moving with a full position—having the right direction is one thing, and having the right entry point is another; don't confuse the two. Both binary data points for $BTC have landed, so now it's purely about timing. The first rule of timing is not to give away chips during trash time.Good news is piling up, but the market is asleep — it’s not that the market has become dull, it’s testing the "efficiency boundary" 🧊 CPI has dropped, PPI has dropped, and rate cut expectations are heating up. Good news is stacked high, but the market shows no reaction. Two or three years ago, this combination would have sent BTC soaring. Now? BTC is still sideways at 63,000, ETH is grinding at 1,870, and even SOL is consolidating with low volume at a high level. The market used to be extremely sensitive to news, with every little breeze causing a big bullish candle. Not anymore. The market is undergoing a "desensitization" process — desensitized to macro data, to good news, to fundamental information. It’s not that the market has become slow; it’s resetting its "efficiency boundary." What used to work may no longer be effective. Good news is piled on the table, but the market doesn’t rise. The core reason is simple: at 63,000, investors don’t find it worthwhile to take heavy positions. There’s a thick wall of sell orders at 65,000 above, no support at 62,000 below, and large funds can’t find a suitable risk-reward entry point here. Choosing a direction takes time and clearer signals — whether there will be a rate cut in September, whether ETF funds will continue to flow in, when institutions will be willing to lift the market — these are the real variables. The direction will come, but not now. Before the direction emerges, watch more and act less; don’t waste principal and judgment in sideways trading. #BTC #ETH #SOL #资金流向$ETH $BTC $OKB #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仅看7894点 #ETF买盘反转，BTC杠杆仓位回升 #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 #英伟达深入AI资本链，协同与风险如何平衡 Under strategic trade-offs, sector differentiation operates, and individual stock trends are determined by their own fundamentals Currently, Nvidia's two moves, one advancing and one retreating, together form a complete strategic trade-off. Equity layout captures the long-term growth dividends of AI, while reducing guarantees corrects the previously overly aggressive risk control approach. There is no conclusion that this is a unilateral positive or negative for the entire AI sector. Subsequent market trends will show clear differentiation based on the strength of each company's fundamentals. For Nvidia itself, holding equity opens up profit boundaries, phased guarantees control balance sheet pressure, and the business model becomes more balanced. However, market controversy caused by revolving financing will not dissipate quickly, and the stock price is likely to remain range-bound, awaiting verification of the model's merits by the progress of major data center construction and downstream AI company revenue data. $NVDA Breaking down into different tracks in the US stock market, trends will follow distinctly different rhythms: Storage companies like SanDisk, which do not rely on a single client, hold multiple long-term supply agreements, and have clearly defined profit targets for the coming years, will only experience short-term disturbances from sector news, and their original oscillating upward trend will not fundamentally change; Small and medium computing power stocks whose revenue is entirely tied to a single major AI client and lack a stable client matrix will be highly affected by Nvidia's financing policies, with significantly amplified volatility; Pure AI computing power concept stocks without actual hardware orders are more likely to face capital withdrawal due to market concerns over revolving financing. $SNDK In practice, a differentiated response approach is adopted: pure computing power concept stocks already at high levels remain on hold, SanDisk continues to trade according to its original range rhythm, and does not arbitrarily change holdings based on single industry news. The broad direction of AI industry expansion has not changed; the industry has just left the phase of reckless cost-ignoring growth. Going forward, only upstream hardware companies with healthy client structures and strong performance certainty can navigate cycles and achieve independent market trends.Don't just look at UBS's 24 times leverage; the real signal lies in the position structure. Don't just focus on the "24 times" in this news. As of June 30, 2026, UBS's 13F shows that the number of underlying shares for IBIT call options rose from 80,000 in Q1 to 1,950,000, an increase of about 24.4 times. Direct holdings increased from 364,371 shares to 407,890 shares, an increase of about 11.9%. The number of shares corresponding to put options dropped to 143,300 shares, a decrease of about 52.8%. My judgment is: what really matters is the structure, not the headline numbers. Direct ETF holdings only slightly increased; the main changes come from the options side, indicating that traditional financial channels are incorporating $BTC exposure into spot ETFs, options, and risk management frameworks. But this does not equate to "UBS proprietary heavy positions" or "BTC is about to surge"—13F filings do not reveal client or proprietary attribution, strike prices, expiration dates, or hedging relationships. There is another easily overlooked detail: UBS's direct IBIT holdings reported at the end of 2025 were 548,614 shares, so the Q2 figure of 407,890 shares is still about 25.7% lower. Therefore, this is better viewed as a clue to changes in institutional participation rather than unilateral bullish evidence. In practice, when seeing 13F news, first separate it into three layers: directly held ETF shares, the number of underlying shares corresponding to options, and the disclosed value of options. To judge how bullish the options really are, you also need to look at strike prices, expiration dates, Delta, and hedging methods.$BTC $ETH Trump’s renewed Iran comments are tightening market nerves. If tensions escalate, oil could rise, inflation could return, and Fed rate-cut expectations could weaken. That’s bad for risk assets. For now, BTC is behaving more like a high-volatility risk asset than a true safe haven. Institutions may cut crypto exposure first and move toward gold and Treasuries. Don’t confuse the digital-gold narrative with short-term market behavior. #WeakConsumptionFedSplit #SP500EarningsGap The scariest thing about AI trading isn't the drop It's that even the smartest money can be dragged down by leverage Jane Street suffered huge monthly losses due to investments related to Situational Awareness, which is more glaring than the usual AI stock pullbacks. Someone who bets on the long-term AI narrative can still lose because of financing structure, crowded positions, and liquidity It's quite ironic The market always likes to portray AI as a certainty for the next decade, but what settles daily at the trading desk isn't the future, it's the margin. The direction may be right, but that doesn't mean the position can hold; the narrative may not be broken, but that doesn't mean you won't be forced to sell at the worst possible time So now when I look at the AI market, I first check who is borrowing money to buy, not who is shouting faith Sometimes the bubble isn't because the view is too optimistic, but because the money is too eager #AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元 Brothers, I think the interesting thing about CORE is actually not that "it is an L1." There are too many L1s now, so simply claiming to be an L1 is nothing special. What I’m more focused on is the direction it keeps emphasizing: How to truly turn BTC into an asset that can participate in the on-chain economy. For example, Core’s BTC Staking uses Bitcoin’s native CLTV time lock to lock BTC on the Bitcoin chain to participate in Core’s consensus, rather than directly handing BTC over to a third-party custodian. If this can really scale up later, I think it’s much more interesting than just speculating on a CORE token story. $CORE Wall Street tells a bull market story about the S&P, but doesn't dare to get too crazy verbally Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, AI capital expenditures are still supporting profit forecasts, and both JPMorgan and Citi have raised their S&P targets and EPS assumptions. But interestingly, after the index has already risen to a high level, many targets no longer seem that exaggerated I understand this awkward feeling Analysts don't want to be bullish, but they don't dare to write all variables as perfect answers. Earnings need to continue to exceed expectations, AI investments must deliver returns, consumption can't suddenly collapse, and September policies can't be frightening—missing any one link could make valuations struggle to breathe The current US stock market feels like a test where a high score has already been achieved The next question is not whether it will pass, but whether it can still get full marks on every question #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仅看7894点 The most dangerous place in Hormuz right now is not a sudden jump in oil prices but the market starting to get used to "the risk hasn't materialized yet, but let's price it anyway" The temporary navigation arrangement between Iran and Oman is still in the confirmation stage, and the U.S. maritime authorities still list the Persian Gulf, Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman as high-risk areas. In other words, what traders are buying now is not crude oil itself, but a pass that could be revoked at any time I actually think the biggest test here is patience. Even if there is truly good news, oil prices may not continue to surge; if the agreement drags on without being finalized, the risk premium won't be released all at once. What we fear most now is not getting the direction wrong, but treating a diplomatic process as if it were a finalized contract In this market, sentiment moves faster than the ships #霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价 ETFs are selling, but leverage is increasing—this may be the most noteworthy signal for BTC right now. 1. Liquidity: Spot buying has not continued. According to the data in the chart, from August 3 to 7, $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs once saw net inflows of about $1.1 billion, but from August 10 to 14, BTC ETFs turned net outflows again. So it's not yet accurate to say institutional funds have fully returned; rather, buying has returned, but continuity hasn't been confirmed. 2. Macro: Favorable environment, but lacks a driving force. Recently, US retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6%, inflation data was relatively mild, and expectations for continued rate hikes in September cooled significantly, with the US dollar index falling back to around 99.7. For BTC, "weak dollar + declining rate hike expectations" is generally beneficial. However, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still above 4.6%, so liquidity has not yet fully relaxed. On August 19, the minutes of the July FOMC meeting will be released, which will be an important point to watch next. 3. Leverage: What really needs to be watched out is the liquidation zone below. The open interest in BTC futures in the chart has rebounded to about 766,000 BTC, with a nominal value close to $49.2 billion, and the funding rate remains positive. If ETFs continue to flow out, spot funds cannot connect, and leverage positions keep increasing, once BTC pulls back, chain liquidations are likely to be triggered. As of August 16, the largest BTC long liquidation concentration zone on Hyperliquid is at 61,$SNDK Let's make a quick analogy with the $XAU market at the beginning of this year. At the start of the year, gold irrationally surged to a historic high of 5600 before sharply dropping. It then rebounded twice to around 5200. Just when everyone thought the bull market was back, it fell again and never looked back. In hindsight, this was a rescue rebound pulled by institutions: only by pushing the price up could these institutions exit. Now look at SanDisk's K-line chart—isn't there a familiar feeling? Undeniably, SanDisk is a good stock, but has gold's fundamentals changed since the beginning of the year? The US-Iran conflict continues, and gold's fundamentals are getting better. So why hasn't the price returned to its previous high? This indicates that irrational factors accounted for too much of the price at the start of the year; I judge that SanDisk is the same now: it's a good company, but not at a good price. This is my logic for shorting SanDisk, with a stop loss if the price returns to the previous high. NFA, DYOR! #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 Good news but no rise, it's not that the market has become dull, it's that money is switching tracks🧊 CPI and PPI are falling simultaneously, signaling clear inflation cooling. The expectation for a rate cut in September has dropped from 40% to 32%, and the CME data confirms this. Back in 2021, this combination would have been enough to push BTC up to 64,000 or even higher. But what happened? BTC is still hovering around 63,000, ETH is grinding near 1,870, and SOL hasn't shown an independent rally. A pile of good news but the market hasn't moved. It's not that the market doesn't recognize the good news, it's that the 63,000 level makes it hard for big money to make a decision. There are huge sell orders above 65,000, sparse buy orders below 62,000; breaking upwards is too costly, breaking down lacks enough chips, so the market is stuck in the middle, and no one wants to make the first move. Funds haven't left the market, they've just moved elsewhere—SanDisk in US stocks jumped 10 points, Hynix rose over 7%, Nvidia is strengthening. The money hasn't disappeared, it's just gone to places with better profit potential. Retail investors are waiting for BTC to break out, institutions are waiting for a US stock pullback, and the rhythms on both sides are completely out of sync. Before three signals come together—BTC breaking above 65,000 with volume, ETH strengthening simultaneously, and altcoins overall warming up in trading volume—the direction won't emerge. The sideways movement isn't weakness, it's a rotation. Once the rotation is complete, the direction will reveal itself. #BTC #ETH #SOL #资金流向$ETH $BTC $OKB #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仅看7894点 #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 #ETF买盘反转，BTC杠杆仓位回升 S&P 500 Earnings Exceed Expectations, Wall Street Raises Year-End Target to 7894 Points S&P 500 index earnings in Q2 grew 31% year-over-year, surpassing the previous expectation of 23%. This is the strongest increase since Bloomberg Industry Research began tracking data in 1992 (excluding post-recession recoveries). Currently, over 90% of component stocks have reported earnings, and the overall performance for the first half of the year is expected to be the best since 2021 for the same period. Analysts believe the better-than-expected performance partly stems from the resilience of the U.S. economy and partly from AI-driven improvements in profit margins. The net profit margin of S&P 500 components has risen from a previously hard-to-break 14% to nearly 16%. Nationwide's Chief Market Strategist noted that AI was mainly a cost factor in recent years, but this year marks a turning point as it begins to contribute to profits. With earnings growth outpacing the index gains, the forward 12-month P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has dropped from about 26 times at the start of the year to just under 22 times. Wall Street strategists have also raised the average year-end target to 7894 points, leaving about 1% upside from this week's record high; the full-year earnings growth forecast has been revised up from 15% at the start of the year to 27%. The earnings improvement is not limited to large tech stocks. As of August 12, among approximately 1500 U.S. listed companies that have reported results, about three-quarters have beaten expectations for both earnings per share and revenue. Healthcare was the only sector in the S&P 500 to see earnings contraction in Q2. Whether the index can break through 8000 points depends on whether AI-driven margin improvements can spread to more industries and whether the cooling consumption will transmit to corporate revenues. #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仅看7894点 How impressive is Core's post-quantum technology? ⚠️ Risk Warning: The content is compiled from publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice. 1. Conclusion first 1. Formal R&D has already started, with an official clear roadmap, but currently there is no post-quantum feature available on the mainnet; it is still in the research and planning stage and has not been implemented. 2. Roadmap plan: adopts a hybrid dual-signature architecture (traditional ECDSA signature + NIST-standard post-quantum signature in parallel). Logic: a transaction carries two sets of signatures. If a quantum computer breaks the elliptic curve algorithm, the post-quantum signature ensures asset security; if the new PQC algorithm has vulnerabilities, the original signature acts as a fallback, enabling a smooth transition and avoiding forced migration via hard fork. 3. Team understanding: Official public view — hash and mining power themselves are not threatened by quantum computing; the biggest risk is the ECDSA signature (public/private keys), commonly referred to in the industry as the "risk of collecting public keys now and future quantum decryption stealing coins." 2. Progress timeline (public information) - April 2026: Officially announced the quantum defense roadmap and formed a cryptography research team; - Current stage: scheme demonstration, algorithm selection (benchmarking NIST standardized post-quantum signature ML-DSA), internal testing; - No clear timetable for hard fork/upgrade release, no testnet version open to the public; - Currently, Core mainnet still uses standard ECDSA, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and natively lacks post-quantum capability. 3. Objective advantages and shortcomings (compared with BTCFi track, Stacks/Babylon) ✅ Advantages 1. As an EVM-compatible independent L1, it can progressively upgrade cryptographic modules and design a "hybrid signature smooth migration" plan without forcing users to migrate private keys all at once; 2. Targeting institutional funds (lstBTC, custodial clients), quantum security is a long-term narrative to attract family offices and asset managers, with strategic motivation for continuous investment; 3. The planned scheme is compatible with retail self-custody BTC staking scenarios, balancing both retail and institutional needs. ❌ Shortcomings (key community controversies) 1. Only at the roadmap planning stage, no engineering implementation results, no third-party cryptographic audit reports, thus it is an expected narrative rather than current capability; 2. Post-quantum upgrade involves major underlying cryptographic changes, likely requiring a hard fork in the future, with great difficulty coordinating validator nodes, wallets, and DApp ecosystem modifications; 3. Track competitor comparison: Stacks and Babylon have not yet launched mature post-quantum solutions; across the entire BTCFi track, post-quantum is generally a long-term R&D topic, and no chain has fully implemented commercial post-quantum capability yet; everyone is at the same starting line. 4. Distinguishing two easily confused misconceptions 1. ❌ Misconception: "Satoshi Plus consensus inherently has post-quantum resistance" Consensus mechanism (hash power + staking) addresses 51% attacks; it cannot resist Shor's algorithm breaking ECDSA private keys. These are completely different security issues. 2. ❌ Misconception: "BTC staying on Bitcoin mainnet = naturally post-quantum resistant" Bitcoin's native ECDSA signature is vulnerable to quantum computing. BTC principal security depends on Bitcoin network's own future post-quantum upgrades, unrelated to Core chain. Core's quantum scheme protects transactions, staking certificates, and CORE token accounts on the Core chain. 5. Follow-up tracking of three key signals (to verify if the narrative is fulfilled) 1. Official release of post-quantum cryptography whitepaper and selection of formal algorithms; 2. Launch of testnet version, open for developer and wallet team integration testing; 3. Hiring independent cryptographic security firms to complete special audits, publish audit reports, and provide a clear mainnet upgrade timetable. Brief summary (can be directly included in your STX/CORE comparison article) Core DAO has started post-quantum security R&D and publicly announced its roadmap, adopting a classic cryptography + post-quantum hybrid dual-signature scheme to address the risk of future quantum computing breaking signatures. However, it is currently all in the R&D stage, with no related features deployed on the mainnet, representing a long-term expected narrative. All mainstream projects in the BTCFi track currently have no mature commercial post-quantum solutions; in the short term, this will not be a core catalyst for market trends but rather a long-term ecological competitiveness highlight. #CORE #BTCFi #PostQuantumSecurity Trump posts another video discussing Iran, and risk aversion begins to heat up! The U.S. blockade of Iran continues, and with Trump personally discussing Iran's strategy at this time, the market naturally interprets it as a signal: The matter may not be over yet; there are more cards ahead. This is also why $BTC is currently struggling to profit from the "safe haven" market. Many people always say BTC is digital gold, but when geopolitical conflicts and war risks intensify, the first reaction of funds is still gold and US Treasuries. Gold rises first, the US dollar strengthens first, making BTC more likely to be sold off. The reason is very practical: When panic truly erupts, institutions don't buy BTC for safe haven first, but rather cut off highly volatile assets first. Therefore, if the situation in Iran continues to escalate, BTC should be cautious in the short term. #ETF买盘反转, BTC leverage positions have rebounded #特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大, BTC holdings declined #加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced? The macro scene these days is really giving me a headache 🤯 On the surface, there are three news items, but the logic is all connected: the Hormuz issue is dragging on unresolved, oil prices are ready to catch up and suppress rate cuts, which explains why the S&P earnings are so good yet Wall Street dares not be bullish; on the other hand, Jane Street betting on AI can lose 15 billion a month, indicating a strong deleveraging in tech stocks. US stock liquidity is drained, coupled with the shadow of oil inflation, making it really hard for BTC to run an independent rally. The big players are all getting washed out, so we retail investors shouldn’t stubbornly hold high leverage. I’ve already reduced my position to 20%. Will everyone be bullish or bearish at Monday’s open? Is everyone just waiting and watching? 🤦‍♂️ $BTC $CL $ETH #霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价 #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仅看7894点 #AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元 #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 The "wealth relay baton" of the interest rate cut cycle: BTC is the prologue, ETH is the main wave --- Core Logic (Must Read) 1. Three-stage interest rate cut trade: Certainty (BTC) → Elasticity (ETH) → Sentiment (Altcoins). Currently switching from the first stage to the second stage, a critical window. 2. The only effective indicator: Don’t listen to slogans, focus closely on the ETH/BTC exchange rate. If this ratio does not continue to rise, don’t talk about the "altcoin season." This is the hard dividing line between a rebound and a reversal. 3. Biggest risk variable: Beware of "recession-style interest rate cuts." If employment data crashes, BTC will temporarily rise due to liquidity expectations. Then it will be crushed by risk-off sentiment and plunge. ETH will be the hardest hit in this scenario. --- Operation Guide Current stage: Anchor on BTC to trade ETH — BTC stable, ETH enters; BTC volatile, ETH waits. Explosion signal: ETH/BTC strengthens for three consecutive days, regarded as the "starting gun" for market risk appetite expansion. At that time, increase positions in elastic assets. Retreat signal: Once hard landing economic data (such as non-farm payrolls, PMI worsening beyond expectations) is released. Any rebound is a bull trap, decisively reduce positions. --- Remember: The real big market moves never happen when BTC rises the most. But when the market starts to feel BTC "rises too slowly." At that moment, ETH’s scythe and frenzy will arrive simultaneously. --- About the $SNDK short squeeze review: Extremely cautious when shorting against the trend 1. Extremely high short crowding. Previous pullbacks attracted a large number of short positions. OKX short accounts once reached 1.8 times the long accounts. Nearly $40 million in shorts liquidated within 24 hours. Huge short positions became the core fuel for the short squeeze. 2. Intensive fundamental positive triggers. SanDisk announced better-than-expected long-term performance plans. $93.9 billion supply agreement finalized. Combined with ongoing industry shortage expectations. Directly triggered a short stop-loss wave. 3. Closing positive feedback accelerates. Price rise initially triggered forced liquidation of some shorts. Passive buying pushed prices higher, then triggered more shorts. Forming a self-reinforcing loop of "the higher it rises, the more shorts close; the more shorts close, the higher it rises." 4. Macro environment reduces selling pressure. US inflation cools, interest rate cut expectations rise. Growth sector valuation repair. Market risk appetite warms. Active selling decreases, amplifying the short squeeze strength. 5. Capital clusters in leaders. On-exchange funds concentrate in storage sector. SanDisk, as the sector leader, continuously attracts incremental longs. Providing sustained momentum for the market. --- Under multiple resonant conditions, this round of short squeeze has extremely strong explosive power. Shorting against the trend requires bearing extremely high risk. The above is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. --- $BTC $ETH $SNDK #OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温 #海力士扩产提速，资本开支能否兑现回报 When will the $CORE public chain explode at the earliest? 1. Scenario A: Earliest trigger (low probability, 12-18 months, around mid-2027) Requires hitting at least 2 major catalysts simultaneously: ① The US SEC approves a BTC yield-type LST-ETF based on Core's underlying technology, allowing compliant institutional funds from Europe and America to enter the market; ② Custodians like BitGo/HexTrust, through Core's lstBTC, see a leap in institutional BTC staking scale (tens of billions of dollars), generating real on-chain business revenue and initiating continuous token buybacks; ③ Coupled with Bitcoin entering a new bull market main rising phase, with overall market risk appetite high. 2. Scenario B: Neutral scenario (high probability, 2028-2029, mid to late next Bitcoin bull market) US ETF approval delayed, no super compliance benefits; BTCFi sector overall booming, a large amount of existing Bitcoin assets start staking for yield; Core, as one of the BTCFi infrastructures, follows the market cycle to realize valuation; But funds will be diverted by projects in the same sector like Stacks, Babylon, reducing elasticity. 3. Scenario C: No explosion (high-risk realistic path) Summary - Theoretically earliest: around mid-2027, but low probability, must have dual catalysts of US ETF approval + institutional staking scale explosion; - Neutral time window: 2028-2029, mid to late next Bitcoin bull market; #ETF buying reversal, BTC leverage positions rising Bearish factors are accumulating, I'm waiting for Monday's liquidation Positions unchanged. Sunday's screen is quieter than weekdays. Candlesticks are still, the Hormuz agreement is pending, $BZ is waiting. News comes out every day, but not a single number on the market moves—this is when people tend to overthink. At Hormuz, the agreement is pending signature, the US opposes, Iran refuses to back down. Trump said he might declare the strait as "US territory." If this statement came on Monday, crude oil would jump at least 3%. But now it's the weekend, futures are closed, all risks are waiting to be priced at Monday 9 AM open. Same with $ETH. Money is retreating, leverage is increasing, both sides are waiting for the other to move first. Last week net inflow was 1.1 billion, Monday outflow was 145 million. Institutional buying didn't catch it, but futures open interest returned to 765,820 contracts, nominal value 49.2 billion USD, funding rate remains positive—spot demand is retreating, leverage positions are entering, both sides are accumulating. If crude oil rebounds 3% on Monday, inflation expectations rise, US Treasury yields go up, $BTC will be under short-term pressure. If ETF continues outflow, leveraged longs turn into liquidation pressure, price drops a level first. Neither variable is bullish. Short positions remain. It's not that they don't want to move, but can't move on weekends. Waiting for Monday 9 AM, waiting for crude oil to open, waiting for ETF to open. Bearish factors are accumulating, price hasn't moved yet, I'm waiting for it to be priced.In this bull market, many people are holding a bunch of altcoins, eagerly waiting for them to take off, but the trend of this bull market has changed. Only $BTC is breaking new highs, even $ETH just touched the previous bull market high briefly and then dropped. The market where thousands of coins soared and everything doubled in profit is gone; altcoins are now just a few speculative tokens where funds cluster and jump around. Think about it, the water in the pool is limited. When the floodgate opens, the water flows down layer by layer. The first to drink the water is definitely the "prime spot" of Bitcoin. Only after it has drunk its fill will the water overflow to Ethereum, and then to the smaller players. The problem now is that Bitcoin is still gulping down water, and the water hasn't even reached the ankles yet. Why should altcoins be able to jump up? So my current strategy is simple: hold back, don't rush. When is it worth moving? When Bitcoin can no longer rise and starts to stagnate, but Ethereum or Solana begin to jump around actively—that's when the water starts to overflow to the sides, and the real opportunity arrives. At this stage of the bull market, the biggest pitfall is not the lack of opportunity, but that the opportunity hasn't come to you yet, and you've already buried yourself. Holding onto your bullets is better than anything. $BTC $ETH $OKB $SNDK These past few days, it feels like the crypto world has become an ATM for US stocks. But actually, don't panic—everything will come back! Many people panic when they see $BTC falling and US stocks rising, but don't worry—the core is three words: it's being taken advantage of. So why is there a shortage of money? The source is the yen. Global institutions have long borrowed almost zero-interest yen and converted it into dollars to buy US Treasuries, US stocks, and BTC for leverage. As a result, the US and Japan intervened in the exchange rate, boosting the yen. Coupled with expectations of a Japanese rate hike, arbitrage institutions couldn't hold on at all — the exchange rate lost money, borrowing costs rose, and they had to sell assets to pay debts. This wave has nothing to do with BTC fundamentals; it's purely a short-term cash draw triggered by yen arbitrage and closing positions. Once this round of deleveraging is cleared, the transmission path will be clear: the US and Japan will stabilize US Treasuries→ US stocks will also stabilize→ after the arbitrage explosion→ rate cut expectations will rise→ money will be released, and BTC, a highly elastic asset, will naturally be the most active. Simply put, they just wait for the drained blood to flow back. $ETH $SOL #标普盈利超预期, why is Wall Street only looking at 7,894 points? #ETF买盘反转, BTC leverage positions have rebounded #消费动能转弱, September policy remains constrained by inflation #ETF buying reversal, BTC leverage positions rising The biggest problem for BTC right now is not that no one is bullish. It's that ETF funds are starting to withdraw, but leverage positions are piling up again. To put it simply: Spot hasn't continued to lift the price, but contract traders rushed in first. I actually don't like this structure. Because as long as the price can't be pushed up, the next step can easily become—— First, a round of leverage liquidation, then decide which way to go. What I'm most afraid of now is not that there are many shorts. It's that all the bulls are leveraged. $BTC This round of dollar decline is likely to suppress the emergence of altcoin season. The market often directly interprets a weaker dollar as positive for risk assets, but in fact, there are two completely different economic environments behind the dollar's decline. The first is global growth recovery. Manufacturing, trade, credit, and corporate profits outside the U.S. improve simultaneously, and capital flows from dollar assets to global risk assets. This environment is most favorable for altcoins because altcoins inherently have high growth, long duration, and high financing dependency characteristics. The second is the deterioration of U.S. fiscal credit or policy credibility. The dollar falls, but long-term real interest rates continue to rise. At this time, funds will buy gold, BTC, short-duration cash instruments, and assets with pricing power, while avoiding long-term projects lacking cash flow. Dollar down, BTC up, gold up, altcoins continue to bleed—this is the norm in the second scenario. The 2022 bear market came from a strong dollar; unfortunately, when the dollar begins to tentatively weaken, altcoins will instead face a new harsh environment. In this environment, BTC is treated as a monetary asset, while altcoins are still regarded as high-risk tech stocks. This leads to a separation in valuation drivers despite both sharing the crypto label: BTC benefits from sovereign credit concerns, while altcoins are suppressed by financing costs and the discounting of future cash flows. In this cycle, BTC bull market and crypto bull market will become two different concepts. #霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价 $OKB $SNDK $HYPE "Bull Comes" is a domestic animation painstakingly handmade by a mother and son over 5 years, with almost no team. It was just released with zero promotion, and the opening box office was only a few thousand yuan. Due to its rough and abstract visuals, it was widely criticized by netizens. The title is a homophone for "bull market comes," coinciding with the sluggish A-share market. Stock investors used it as a meme to pray for good luck, and curiosity-driven check-ins boosted the box office sharply in a short time, leading cinemas to add many more screenings. The hype spread to the crypto community, where the BNB chain directly spawned a meme coin with the same name. Riding the wave of nationwide popularity, it surged dozens of times in a short period, with market value rapidly soaring. This is a typical event-driven meme speculation with no real project value. After the hype faded, the coin price quickly dropped back, and the movie itself was merely a vehicle for netizens to vent their emotions through memes.When will the $CORE public chain explode at the earliest? 1. Scenario A: Earliest trigger (low probability, 12-18 months, around mid-2027) Requires hitting at least 2 major catalysts simultaneously: ① The US SEC approves a BTC yield-type LST-ETF based on Core's underlying technology, allowing compliant institutional funds from Europe and America to enter the market; ② Custodial institutions like BitGo/HexTrust, through Core's lstBTC, see a scale leap in institutional BTC staking (tens of billions of dollars), generating real on-chain business revenue and initiating continuous token buybacks; ③ Coupled with Bitcoin entering a new bull market main rising phase, with overall market risk appetite high. 2. Scenario B: Neutral scenario (high probability, 2028-2029, mid to late next Bitcoin bull market) US ETF approval delayed, no super compliance benefits; The BTCFi sector is generally hot, with a large amount of existing Bitcoin assets starting to be staked for yield; Core, as one of the BTCFi infrastructures, follows the market cycle to realize valuation; However, funds will be diverted by competing projects like Stacks, Babylon, etc., reducing elasticity. 3. Scenario C: No explosion (high-risk realistic path) Summary - Theoretically earliest: around mid-2027, but this is a low probability event requiring dual catalysts of US ETF approval + institutional staking scale explosion; - Neutral time window: 2028-2029, mid to late next Bitcoin bull market; Iran and Oman reached a temporary navigation agreement, causing a slight drop in after-hours oil prices, but the U.S. has not signed, and the transfer of territorial sea jurisdiction has left physical navigation unconfirmed, leading to a secondary repricing of crude oil geopolitical risk premiums. Brent after-hours fell to $86.07, WTI to $81.09, only slightly retreating compared to the previous weekly gains of over 5%, proving that the market does not equate the framework agreement with the actual opening of the strait. The maintenance of the $80 to $86 range indicates that both bulls and bears are waiting for evidence of physical channel delivery. The primary variable driving crude pricing is the impact of U.S.-Iran political games on the supply side, followed by the efficiency of temporary channel passage. The U.S. has not met the seven security conditions proposed by Iran, resulting in a significant gap in navigation fees and security guarantees after the 60-day trial period. Inflation expectations and risk appetite transmit through position rebalancing. Blocked passage will keep oil prices high, intensify secondary inflation concerns, and suppress overall risk asset appetite; if physical navigation proceeds smoothly, the rapid unwinding of geopolitical premiums will release long profit-taking. The upside scenario is triggered by U.S. military confrontations with the new channel or Iran intercepting commercial vessels. Long positions will follow passively, with the key variable being the transit routes of the first tankers. A $CL break above $83.50 will confirm premium restructuring. The downside scenario is triggered by tacit understanding between the U.S. and Iran and commercial vessels smoothly passing through the new route. Once physical navigation is confirmed, geopolitical risk premiums will clear, and a WTI break below $79.50 will trigger trend short entries. A signal that the market judgment has failed is when the market abandons the territorial sea control game and shifts to pre-pricing navigation fees of 3% to 7%. Once the trading focus shifts to smooth transmission of navigation costs, crude volatility will significantly contract. Under the premise that the U.S. has not signed security guarantees, will shipping insurance companies be willing to underwrite tankers entering Iranian territorial waters? The most important observation variable in the next 7 days is whether Western commercial tankers actually enter the new Iranian territorial sea channel and changes in marine insurance underwriting rates. #高盛收购Neos，加密ETF转向收益竞争 #AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元 #ETF买盘反转，BTC杠杆仓位回升 #海力士扩产提速，资本开支能否兑现回报 Under the wave of AI computing power, storage giant SK Hynix has launched a large-scale, ultra-long-cycle expansion plan, betting on the sustained explosive hardware demand of AI servers in the coming years. Data shows that SK Hynix's cash expenditure on tangible assets in the first half of the year has already exceeded 18 trillion KRW, and the board has approved an additional investment totaling 54.3 trillion KRW. The funds will be allocated to two core projects: 19.1 trillion KRW invested in the Cheongju M17 project, and 35.2 trillion KRW allocated to a brand-new plant in Yongin, with a construction period extending to 2031. The capacity layout covers NAND flash, high-end HBM, and next-generation DRAM products. The logic behind this large-scale investment is clear: relying on the current AI memory business to generate substantial profits and cash flow, continuously increasing capacity to capture market share in the AI server storage sector. HBM, as essential hardware for AI large model training, has long-term demand potential, and early deployment of new capacity helps SK Hynix strengthen its competitiveness in the high-end storage market. However, behind the massive capital investment lies significant risks that cannot be ignored. The multi-year construction cycle means a long pace for return realization, and the final investment returns depend on three major variables: timing of capacity deployment, global storage chip price cycles, and the growth rate of overseas AI customer orders. Industry cyclicality is always an unavoidable challenge for storage companies. Once new capacity is released in a concentrated manner, the market supply-demand balance shifts to oversupply, chip prices come under pressure, and corporate profits and cash flow face challenges. The core market question follows.#海力士扩产提速，资本开支能否兑现回报 After reading SK Hynix's news about large-scale capacity expansion, I actually feel quite conflicted inside. Relying on the substantial profits brought by the AI memory business, Hynix now holds ample ammunition and has started to heavily invest in long-term capacity construction. Just the cash expenditure on tangible assets in the first half of the year has already exceeded 18 trillion KRW, and the board has additionally approved a massive investment of 54.3 trillion KRW. Part of this funding is directed to the Cheongju M17 project, with a larger portion going to the new Yongin plant. The entire construction cycle extends until 2031, covering NAND, HBM, and next-generation DRAM capacity, targeting the massive storage demand brought by the future AI server boom. From a long-term perspective, this move is logically sound—locking in capacity early to seize market share of storage chips under the AI wave. But behind the high investment, risks cannot be ignored. Whether the huge capital expenditure can yield ideal returns is not decided solely by building factories; it ultimately depends on multiple variables: when capacity will be released in concentration, how the price cycle of storage chips will move, and whether orders from downstream major customers can sustain growth. The most critical question is right in front of us: before the industry supply-demand pattern shifts, can these newly launched capacities generate stable profits and cash flow to cover the continuously growing capital investments? The storage industry itself is a highly cyclical sector. Currently, HBM is in a high cycle, and everyone is optimistic about future expectations. But once supply increases later, prices will be pressured, and the burden of the massive early investments will become apparent. While enjoying the AI dividend in the short term, in the mid to long term, it will be a gamble against the industry cycle. I will continue to closely watch the matching of capital expenditure and profitability in the storage sector going forward.#S&P Earnings Exceed Expectations, Why Is Wall Street Only Looking at 7894 Points Recently reviewing the Q2 earnings reports of the US stock market, there is a phenomenon that I think is worth discussing: earnings data across the board exceeded expectations, but Wall Street institutions are not enthusiastic at all. The S&P 500 closed higher again last week, achieving a three-week winning streak, hitting a new intraday closing high, then retreating to 7785.76 points on Friday. Currently, over 90% of the component stocks have reported earnings, with Q2 earnings up 31% year-over-year, significantly surpassing the previous market expectation of 23%. The full-year earnings growth forecast has been raised directly from 15% at the beginning of the year to 27%. Earnings growth outpaced the index rise, compressing the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio from 26 times at the start of the year to less than 22 times. Logically, with such explosive performance, target levels should be raised significantly, but institutions’ average year-end target is only 7894 points, implying an upside of just 1.4% compared to the current price. I understand the underlying implication: most of the positive factors have already been priced in by the market. Whether the market can challenge 8000 points going forward depends on two key factors. One is whether the profit dividends brought by AI can spread from a few leading tech companies to all industries; the other is whether the cooling of consumption will transmit and drag down corporate revenues. If earnings expectations continue to be revised upward, market risk appetite can be maintained; if earnings fall short of expectations, not only US tech stocks but also highly volatile assets like BTC will face considerable downward pressure.#S&P Earnings Exceed Expectations, Why Is Wall Street Only Looking at 7894 Points S&P earnings have significantly exceeded expectations, but Wall Street's target remains very conservative After reviewing this wave of U.S. stock earnings season data, I found a very interesting contradiction. The S&P 500 has risen for three consecutive weeks, hitting a new closing high on Thursday, then retreating to 7785.76 points on Friday. Ninety percent of Q2 earnings reports have been disclosed, with earnings up 31% year-over-year, far exceeding the previous market expectation of 23%. The full-year earnings forecast has also been raised from 15% at the beginning of the year to 27%. Earnings have outpaced the stock price increase, pushing the forward 12-month P/E ratio down from 26 times to less than 22 times, indicating that valuations have been digested. However, the average year-end target from major Wall Street institutions is only 7894 points, which compared to the current price, implies an upside of only about 1.4%. It is clear that institutions are very cautious, believing that many earnings positives have already been priced in by the market. Whether the index can break through 8000 points depends on two key factors: whether the profit improvements brought by AI can spread to more industries, and whether weakening consumption will transmit and drag down corporate revenues. If earnings continue to be revised upward, market risk appetite can be maintained; if earnings fall short of expectations, large tech stocks and high-volatility assets like BTC will face increased correction pressure.Crypto regulatory legislation is entering a critical period of maneuvering. U.S. Senator Kennedy urged the Senate to immediately pass the Bitcoin and Crypto Clarity Act, stating that the Senate needs to vote on the bill. Previously, the Senate Banking Committee had already passed the bill in May by a 15-9 vote, and the next step is to submit it to a full Senate vote. Why is the CLARITY Act so important? The bill aims to establish a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for the digital asset market, covering registration licensing, compliance monitoring, and consumer protection. Once passed, it will, for the first time, provide a clear compliance path for the crypto industry in legislative form, seen as a key step for crypto assets from "gray innovation" to the "mainstream financial system." Political Game: Why Is the Bill Stuck at the 'Last Mile'? Despite bipartisan support, the bill remained stalled in the Senate for months. The core obstacle lies in the ethical review clause on conflicts of interest between crypto assets and senior government officials. The Democratic Party views this provision as a check on the president's investment of over $1 billion in crypto assets, while the White House refuses to accept discriminatory programs targeting specific positions or individuals, resulting in the legislative process being tied to political goals against Trump. The voting schedule was also forced to be postponed. Senate Majority Leader Toon pushed the vote to September, prioritizing sanctions bills and personnel appointments against Russia. The September session lasts only about two to three weeks, and Galaxy Research lowered the bill's approval probability to 10%. Regulation amid legislative stagnation"Ethereum $ETH market. Many people like to look for bottom signals. But the real bottom. Is often not told by a single indicator. Instead: Selling pressure gradually weakens. Sentiment begins to stabilize. Expectations change again. Funds re-enter. Multiple factors work together. Much more reliable than a magical indicator.The Horn of Hormuz Strait's table, crude oil markets are closed over the weekend, but the risks have already piled up there. There was new movement in the Middle East over the weekend. On August 15, Iran announced it had reached an agreement with Oman on a passage plan for the Strait of Hormuz. According to the new plan, the existing northern and southern routes will be closed, and part of the commercial vessels' passage through the strait will be rerouted through Iranian territorial waters. This is temporary, expected to last 2 to 4 months. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, "Despite U.S. interference, talks are still actively progressing." The Iranian Foreign Minister was more blunt — "Previous diplomatic channels are no longer effective." Iran is pushing forward, and the U.S. is not idle either. On August 14, Trump said in Long Island, New York: after "defeating Iran," he would declare the Strait of Hormuz as U.S. territory. He even laughed a bit after saying it. Iran responded directly — the opening and closing of Hormuz can only be controlled by Iran. What’s more troublesome is the timing. The one-month ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran expires next Monday. White House officials said as of Friday afternoon, negotiations remain "stalled," with no news of an extension. The temporary ceasefire agreement reached in June was declared "over" by Trump on July 8, and a week later Iran announced the agreement was "suspended." Now the deadline is here again. Crude oil futures are closed over the weekend, so these developments have not yet been priced in. But Brent crude already briefly broke $90 last week. Goldman Sachs' view is that until a new agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran or the conflict escalates significantly, Brent will fluctuate between $80 and $90. Now no agreement has been reached, but the conflict is heating up again. How crude oil opens on Monday is a direct question. If oil prices jump, it’s a dilemma for BTC — the inflation hedge narrative can hold somewhat, but the pressure from a stronger dollar and rising interest rate expectations will be more direct. Last week BTC fell to 62773, with geopolitical risks and high oil prices outweighing the positive CPI data. Safe-haven funds flowed to gold, not BTC. What happens over the weekend will be revealed at Monday’s open. #霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价 The number of holders of on-chain tokenized stocks has surpassed one million, with fund transfer volumes absorbing traditional capital spillover at an unusually steep curve. Within one month, the number of holding addresses doubled to 1.31 million, monthly transfer volume surged to $23.13 billion, and the total asset pool of tokenized stocks expanded to $2.38 billion. The rebound in interest rate cut expectations has accelerated the demand for round-the-clock asset allocation, with leading protocols like $ONDO carrying most of the on-chain equity scale. The explosion of on-chain liquidity reflects the urgent demand from off-chain funds for all-weather trading channels, and the custody structure of the underlying certificates makes this flow highly dependent on market-making intermediaries. If mainstream channels continue to expand tokenized targets and market-making bid-ask spreads remain tight, the scale of on-chain equity will further divert traditional spot market deposits. If asset redemptions on the issuance side encounter friction or the secondary market depth dries up, on-chain certificates will quickly decouple and diverge from the real stock spot prices. When transfer activity sharply drops with US stock volatility and on-chain discounts continue to widen, the assumption of liquidity premium for on-chain US stocks will be falsified. In the coming week, it is necessary to track the real acceptance depth and premium convergence of on-chain tokenized stocks during US stock market closed periods. #ETF买盘反转，BTC杠杆仓位回升 #加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？ #韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨 #霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价 The news is back: the agreement has been "reached," but the "implementation" is still far off. Oil prices have fallen for three days, but the real risk premium has not yet been cleared. On August 15, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei announced that Iran has reached an agreement with Oman on a passage plan for the Strait of Hormuz. The new model will close the existing northern and southern routes and replace them with a new temporary route passing through Iranian territorial waters, expected to be used for 2 to 4 months. But the problem is that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi clearly stated two things: first, Iran has not yet decided whether to restart negotiations with the United States; second, the negotiations between Iran and Oman are completely different from the issue of whether the strait is open. Whether the strait can truly be navigated depends on whether the U.S. meets Iran's political and security conditions. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei also accused the U.S. of "sabotage" during the consultations. The day before, Trump had just threatened to "soon declare the Strait of Hormuz as U.S. territory." Iran's judiciary chief directly retorted that this is a "personal delusion." The market reaction is very honest. As of press time, Brent crude futures fell 0.61% in after-hours trading to $86.07, and WTI fell 0.57% to $81.09. Last week, Brent and WTI rose 6% and 5.4%, respectively—despite the news of the "agreement reached," oil prices barely moved. This shows the market has learned not to give a premium until the ships actually pass through. The agreement is between Iran and Oman, not between Iran and the U.S. Without U.S. approval, the ships cannot pass. Oil prices hovering between 80 and 86 are waiting for confirmation—whether the ships can actually go through. If they can, prices will drop further; if not, prices will rebound. I won’t chase shorts here, nor bet on the agreement succeeding. Let’s wait until the ships really move. $CL $BZ The Hormuz agreement still hasn't been signed Crude oil is now just waiting for the final result Recently, oil prices have been stuck here, and the key issue remains the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations between Iran and Oman have indeed made progress, and they have now discussed specific issues such as channel management, but the final agreement has not yet been officially finalized. The market has already pre-traded part of the expectation that the "strait will return to normal," so oil prices haven't continued to surge recently. But I think we shouldn't be too relaxed at this point. The market currently estimates that Brent crude oil may still carry about a 10.7% Hormuz risk premium. If the agreement is really signed, this premium might continue to be squeezed out; but if negotiations suddenly break down, oil prices could easily spike quickly again. So recently, crude oil is actually easy to understand—everyone is waiting to see whether that final agreement will be signed or not. $CL $XAU $XAUT #霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价 US stock earnings reports are so strong, why does Wall Street only dare to see around 8000 points? This round of US stock earnings reports is actually stronger than many expected. Among the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far, about 85% have exceeded market expectations, and overall profits for the second quarter have grown by about 30%. As a result, JPMorgan has raised its 2026 S&P 500 EPS forecast from $350 to $365. The problem is, companies are making more and more money, but the index itself has already risen quite high. JPMorgan recently raised its year-end target from 7800 points to 8000 points, but at that time the S&P 500 was already near 7758 points, meaning Wall Street believes the remaining upside is actually only about 3%. Citibank is a bit more optimistic, currently targeting 8100 points. So the most interesting thing about the US stock market now is that earnings are still being revised upward, but valuations are no longer cheap. #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仅看7894点 $GOOGL $MU $SPCX $BTC $ETH Trump suddenly mentioned Iran again, and the market's nerves immediately tightened. The US sanctions on Iran haven't been lifted yet, and now the president himself speaks out. The market interpretation is clear: this is not over, and there may be even harsher moves to come. But honestly, Bitcoin is unlikely to benefit as a "safe haven" this time. Many call BTC digital gold, but when geopolitical tensions rise and the threat of war looms, big money instinctively rushes to gold and US Treasuries. Because of its high volatility, Bitcoin is more likely to be reduced by institutions first. The logic is simple: if a real conflict breaks out, the first move by institutions is to cut high-risk assets. Although BTC has a long-term narrative, its short-term volatility makes it hard to be the first choice for safe haven. If the Iran situation escalates, pushing oil prices up and reigniting inflation, and the Fed's rate cut expectations get suppressed again, Bitcoin will likely face short-term pressure. Only when the market starts to worry again about US dollar credit and global liquidity might BTC's narrative return. So don't rush to treat Bitcoin as a safe haven asset now; at this stage, it behaves more like a high-volatility risk asset. #霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价 #加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？ Early in the morning, watching the market, these Asian trading funds are once again playing the "abandoning the dark for the light" game. While the market played dead in a narrow range, altcoins played out a dramatic twist of fire and cold. Today, let's skip the hollow macro and dig into who among the altcoins is actually working and who's just bluffing. 📉 ══════════════ [L2 Track: Selling Shovels Finally Can't Keep Up Anymore] 📌 [$ARB Price and Trend] $0.0727 | 24h -2.64% | 7d -8.72% | 24-hour trading volume: $16.89 million 📌 [$OP Price and Trend] $0.0851 | 24h -1.72% | 7D -4.71%. The worst hit today was undoubtedly the L2 sector. Why did it drop? According to DeepTide TechFlow, now that "selling block space is no longer profitable," L2s like Arbitrum and MegaETH have no choice but to grit their teeth and enter the application market. Veteran investors all know that after all the hype about L2, no matter how high the TVL is, without killer apps, it's just stagnant. Now that gas fees have dropped, what else is left in the ecosystem besides the derivatively cut DEXs and unused blockchain games? During this painful period of "infrastructure shifting to application," the price drop is the market voting with its feet; pure speculative concept L2s have long been overheated. 📈 ══════════════ [AI Infrastructure: $LINK Why Rise Against the Trend? 【📌 $LINK Price and Trend】$9.43 | 24h +3.81% #霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价 The Middle East situation has once again reached a critical crossroads, with the progress of negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route affecting the nerves of all funds in the global commodity and financial markets. The temporary shipping route arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz, discussed between Iran and Oman, has entered the final confirmation stage. Both sides plan to divide the shipping lanes and separately manage the maritime passages in and out of the Persian Gulf, but an official joint statement has yet to be released. It is worth noting that Iran has made an early statement that the lane division plan does not equate to a full restoration of navigation through the strait, and the imagined space for easing the situation should be discounted. Meanwhile, the United States maintains a clear and tough stance, openly opposing granting Iran the authority to approve routes or charge passage fees, with multiple conflicts remaining sharp. Negotiations between the US and Iran regarding ceasefire agreements, sanctions relief, maritime blockade disputes, and war reparations are currently stalled, with a low likelihood of resumption in the short term. Geopolitical statements further increase market uncertainty. Recently, Trump publicly stated bluntly that high oil prices are a necessary cost to contain Iran's nuclear weapons development, even putting forward the radical view that the Strait of Hormuz might be designated as "US territory" in the future. These tough remarks have greatly raised the market's risk-averse expectations regarding an escalation of conflict in the strait. #霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价 I've been closely watching the news around the Strait of Hormuz recently; the situation is really complicated and uncertain 😮‍💨 The temporary navigation arrangement between Iran and Oman is in the final confirmation stage, planning to separately manage the inbound and outbound routes of the Persian Gulf, but the official joint statement has not yet been finalized. The key point is that Iran has clearly stated that the division of navigation routes ≠ full resumption of navigation. The U.S. also opposes this, not recognizing Iran's authority to approve and charge for the navigation routes. Core negotiations between the U.S. and Iran on ceasefire and sanctions have still not restarted. Looking at Trump's latest statement, he directly said that high oil prices are the price to pay to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, even suggesting the possibility of designating the strait as "U.S. territory," which significantly raises geopolitical risks. Crude oil futures are closed over the weekend, and these new risks have not yet been priced into the market. Once crude oil reopens, if there is a catch-up rally, a chain reaction will follow. The market will reassess how the energy shock will impact inflation and further alter the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. This brings a very real divergence: will BTC strengthen based on the inflation hedge logic, or will it be suppressed and decline under the pressure of a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields? Both logics make sense. This geopolitical black swan is hanging overhead, and it feels like the market won't be calm in the coming week. Which scenario do you lean towards?Coinbase Warns That AI Agents Spending Your Coins Is Dangerous Have you ever thought that in the future, the one spending your coins might not be you, but a program? Coinbase recently announced that AiFi is already happening. Once AI agents have funding needs, they will choose Coinbase for payments. The statement is directional, without disclosing specific products or data, but the vision is huge—AI opening accounts and spending money on its own sounds like the beginning of a sci-fi movie. This sounds like science fiction, but the logic is straightforward. AI agents need to buy data, call APIs, pay for computing power, and they need a wallet that can settle payments. Coinbase wants to be that cashier, putting the US dollar stablecoin USDC into the payment chain of these agents. Simply put, your wallet might end up hosting a bunch of software that spends money better than you do; it keeps placing orders even while you sleep. For us, this means that the number of active on-chain addresses could increase significantly with machine-operated accounts, quietly boosting TVL and transaction volume. The market looks lively, but behind the scenes, there’s no real human activity; good data doesn’t necessarily mean genuine popularity. From a DeFi perspective, this extends payment scenarios from humans to programs. The benefit is that real usage increases, protocol revenue becomes more solid, no longer relying solely on volume inflation to support data, giving the narrative some real foundation. The downside is obvious: once robots are tricked into authorizing malicious contracts, theft happens a hundred times faster than with humans, so security boundaries need to be redrawn. Multisig basically means multiple keys, which will be more valuable than ever in such times. Single-signature wallets are basically running naked; relying on one private key is too risky. Don’t underestimate this change. Payments have been a story in crypto for ten years. If machine accounts really take off, on-chain fees and stablecoin demand will scale up dramatically. But on the flip side, with robots paying and receiving from each other, humans will find it harder to understand who is actually trading on the market, widening the information gap for retail investors. In the future, half of the volume you see might be programs entertaining themselves, and if you get excited blindly, you’ll lose money. In the short term, this is a narrative, not yet realized; coin prices won’t move because of it, so don’t rush to chase so-called AI payment concept coins—they’re likely just riding the hype. In the long term, if AI agent payments really take off, the demand for USDC and the underlying settlement chains will be repriced. This is another lever after RWA that can solidify on-chain traffic, more substantial than a bunch of meme coins that only hype signals, at least it’s generating real transactions. Are you hoping robots will help you spend coins effortlessly, or are you afraid that one day you’ll wake up to find your authorizations already used by agents, and your money gone without knowing who spent it?Fed Minutes and PMI Coming Next Week—Can Your Positions Hold Up? Can your leverage survive this week? Next week's macro punches might be heavier than expected. The market is focused on two major events: first, the Fed will release the latest monetary policy meeting minutes; second, the PMI data will be published, along with earnings reports from two retail giants that will set the tone for U.S. consumer resilience. Together, these three will essentially signal the direction of interest rates in September, making it hard to stay calm this week. Let's start with the minutes. Last time, the rate was held steady, but the hawks inside didn't shut up. Cleveland's Hamarik even cast a dissenting vote, calling for an immediate rate hike to push inflation back to 2%. Once the minutes are dissected, the market will see clearly how many want to hike and how many want to wait, exposing internal divisions. CME futures still price in over a 90% chance of a rate hike before year-end, but this expectation is fragile. If the minutes are a bit dovish, the dollar and U.S. stocks will move, the crypto market will wobble, and our positions are most vulnerable to this spillover. PMI is a direct thermometer of economic heat. If the number drops, it means manufacturing is contracting, recession talk returns, and funds will flee to safe-haven assets like gold and BTC, which might actually boost Bitcoin. Conversely, strong data emboldens the hawks, tightening liquidity expectations and pressuring risk assets. ETF net inflows basically mean institutions are buying crypto with real money; when macro tightens, this flow is the easiest to cut off. Bitcoin often drops first as a warning, since institutions exit faster than retail. There's a detail often overlooked: the Fed is caught in a pincer. On one side, inflation hasn't truly returned to 2%, and hawks push for hikes; on the other, the economy already shows cracks, and aggressive hikes risk a hard landing. In this tug-of-war, any weak data is wildly interpreted by the market as a signal for rate cuts, while any strong data is taken as a reason to hike aggressively. We crypto traders are stuck in the middle, with amplified volatility—brace your hearts. The retail giants' earnings hinge on consumer resilience. Whether Americans dare to spend determines if corporate profits can support valuations and whether the Fed has room to cut rates. The chain is long, but it all boils down to one question: is money still willing to flow into high-risk assets? If consumption softens, the combination of recession and inflation will leave the Fed in a bind—neither hiking nor cutting is easy. In the short term, expect next week's volatility to be tightly bound by macro factors. Don't bet heavily on direction the day before data releases; keep some dry powder ready for when the news lands. The long-term logic remains: until excess liquidity truly recedes, every macro-driven dip in Bitcoin is a chance to accumulate. Are you planning to reduce positions next week to avoid the storm, or to squat and catch the dip?Hyperliquid whales' $5.3 billion long and short positions are nearly balanced Was your account flying with the bulls or getting rubbed on the floor by the bears this week? A striking number just appeared on-chain. The total whale positions on the Hyperliquid platform have reached $5.361 billion, with a long-to-short ratio of only 0.96, almost exactly one-to-one. This 0.96 is quite interesting. A ratio less than 1 means the short positions slightly outweigh the longs, but the difference is so small it’s basically negligible. In previous one-sided markets, whales would either collectively rush long or dump short, but now it’s like two teams in a tug-of-war, neither letting go. For swing traders, this kind of stalemate is the worst because before a clear direction emerges, fakeouts and order sweeps happen frequently. Your orders can easily be swept from both sides, and just when you stop loss, it pulls you back. Hyperliquid has absorbed a lot of contract flow over the years, with deep liquidity in many altcoins and long-tail assets. Whales concentrating their positions here means that once one side decides to liquidate, the chain reaction of forced liquidations will be faster and more intense than elsewhere. Just in this $5.3 billion leverage segment, a single 3% to 5% reverse spike can trigger tens of millions of dollars in forced liquidations. ETF net inflows basically mean institutions are buying coins with real money, but recently there hasn’t been enough sentiment support. Bitcoin is moving sideways at a high level, and leveraged funds love to bet on breakouts in such ranges—the more sideways, the more people expect a big move. Zooming out, this kind of extreme long-short balance has appeared three or four times in the past year, each time followed by a one-sided sharp move exceeding 8%, often in the opposite direction to where most people were positioned. So don’t be fooled by the current calm ratio; it’s often the quiet before the storm. The calmer it is, the more you need to buckle up. In the short term, this kind of long-short tug-of-war usually starts with a fake breakout that triggers stop losses on one side, then reverses sharply up or down. If you’re trading along the 4-hour average cost line, don’t stubbornly guess direction in the stalemate. Wait until the ratio clearly tilts to one side or Bitcoin shows volume and picks a side before making a move. The long-term logic hasn’t changed: sideways action in a bull market is mostly consolidation, not a top. But keep enough margin in the leverage segment; don’t overfill your positions because moves here can explode irrationally. Ultimately, this $5.3 billion is both an open card and a bait. Whales dare to bet this heavily, indicating they believe volatility is coming, but no one knows which side they’re on. These guys won’t post on social media in advance to tell you. Do you think you can get out ahead of that spike this time? 80% of new players leave after playing with RWA and never touch crypto again Hyperliquid recently released some quite counterintuitive data. Among new users engaging with RWA (Real-World Asset tokenization), over 80% leave after trying it, without switching to trading cryptocurrencies. In other words, these people come to buy tokenized stocks and government bonds, not to chase MEME tokens. This is completely different from what we think; don’t assume everyone is a gambler. This is the exact opposite of the common impression. The community has always thought that on-chain users are gamblers who just dive in and out. But Hyperliquid’s RWA is attracting a different group—they want on-chain access to US stocks and bonds, available 24/7 for trading, and they have no interest in low-quality tokens. They value convenience and compliance, not get-rich-quick schemes; they want ease and the ability to exit anytime. This is both good news and a warning for DeFi. The good news is that real new users are coming, not just reshuffling existing ones. The warning is that this group has low loyalty; they will go wherever the best experience is. Ondo, Kraken, and Binance’s bStocks are all competing for them. Hyperliquid needs to build a robust product to retain them; relying on hype alone won’t keep users, and traffic won’t convert into retention. I know a US stock trader who used to be exhausted from watching the market across time zones, but now uses on-chain RWA access to adjust positions anytime and calls it a game-changer. But he has never touched MEME tokens; he profits from US stock volatility, not crypto gambling. These users bring traditional finance customers onto the blockchain, not more gamblers. The significance is completely different. New narratives emerge daily on-chain, but those who survive multiple bull and bear cycles are never the loudest—they are the most stable. Low-quality tokens can go to zero in a day, but RWA is backed by US stocks and bonds, so it’s not so easy to collapse. Incremental capital seeks stability, not excitement. If this capital truly stays, the blockchain will have successfully captured money from the traditional world. The hype will fade, but what remains is the foundation; don’t just focus on the most active screen. Ultimately, the blockchain doesn’t lack stories; it lacks products that can retain outsiders. The RWA crowd values convenience over excitement. Whoever captures this capital will secure the next wave of new users. Low-quality tokens will still rise, but those that endure cycles are usually these seemingly boring compliant businesses. The hype is fun, but long-term money is real. Do you know anyone who entered through RWA? Or are you still only trading contracts? Drop a comment so I can see which boat everyone is on and if anyone has quietly switched tracks.A year after issuing licenses, no one dares to truly enter the market Around this time last year, Hong Kong made a high-profile release of the first batch of stablecoin licenses, and the outside world applauded, saying the Eastern financial center was going to seize the RWA high ground. A year has passed, Standard Chartered is proactive, HSBC is passive, and the market is as cold as ice. Those with real use cases are blocked outside the door, while the license issuers have become mere bystanders. No one expected such a gap; the louder the initial hype, the quieter it is now. Where does the blame lie? Licenses have been issued, compliance frameworks written, but very few stablecoins capable of running real business have landed. The regulator’s approach is passive defense: first block all risks, then talk about innovation. As a result, companies wanting to act find the process too heavy and give up, while those who don’t want to do business just take the license as a badge. The ordinary users who actually need it haven’t seen a single one; the license has become a certificate on the wall. The most awkward is on the user side. Ordinary people in Hong Kong who want to use stablecoins to buy a cup of milk tea still have to rely on bank transfers. The so-called strategic passivity and tactical activity means the top wants to stake a claim, but the bottom doesn’t dare to move. Standard Chartered is pushing forward, HSBC is watching, and a big gap remains in the middle. No one wants to be the first to try and get burned, so it’s just left hanging. I previously talked to a friend running a small cross-border business who originally hoped Hong Kong’s stablecoins would save remittance fees. After checking around, he still has to use the old channels; compliance thresholds block small merchants at the door. Regulators want to prevent risks but end up blocking the very people who should be using it. This is a bit of putting the cart before the horse—blocking both the risks and the users. Looking back at Singapore, stablecoins have long been running smoothly for daily payments, even street vendors can scan to pay. Hong Kong’s conditions aren’t bad; what’s lacking is the courage to really let go. Whether a market is hot or not ultimately depends on whether ordinary people are willing to use it, not how many documents regulators issue. In this regard, the license is just a ticket; the show hasn’t really started. In the end, the lesson from the license issue is: don’t just look at slogans, look at implementation. Whether a sector is hot or not isn’t about who shouts on stage, but whether ordinary people can actually use it. If Hong Kong’s situation remains this cold next year, the Eastern narrative of RWA will be questionable, and we coin holders shouldn’t get excited blindly. What do you think? Is Hong Kong’s license scheme sincere or just jumping on the bandwagon? Let’s discuss in the comments. Do you believe the Eastern version of stablecoins can really take off, or is it just another show with loud thunder but little rain?

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