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📊 $SUI /USDT
Price: $0.6568 (+0.78%) | Range: $0.6603 / $0.6392
Bullish: Reclaim $0.6664 (MA5) to target $0.6763 (MA10) and retest $0.6805 (MA20), supported by Securitize and Neuberger launching their HINC high-income tokenized fund on Sui as its inaugural integration.
Bearish: Break below immediate support at $0.6392 (24h low) and baseline level $0.6332 to trigger further downside pressure toward macro support zones.
⚠️ Educational only. NFA. DYOR.
#XiaomiQ2Earnings #OKXTraderVoices The monetary policy minutes at 2 AM in the latter half of the night—whether to watch or not, it's a bit of a dilemma! Since Waugh took office, similar meetings seem to have failed to stimulate market volatility or provide market guidance. When Powell was in office, his evasive tactics still let you see the yin-yang fish, but Waugh directly gives you an impenetrable fog. Currently, the market seems more focused on the US debt issue. Given Waugh's stance of not providing forward guidance on policy, the monetary policy minutes likely won't give a clear statement on the US debt issue, or may not even mention it! So the focus still needs to return to US debt! Now, the US debt TLT20 long bond prices are weakening, and the 10/30-year bond yields are rising, giving the impression that the market has entered a period of weak risk awareness. Bitcoin, as a risk appetite indicator, is fluctuating; gold, as a safe-haven sentiment indicator, is also fluctuating; the VIX has slightly rebounded after hitting a yearly low; crude oil prices are wavering up and down! The struggle over the Strait of Hormuz is intensifying, while the S&P and Nasdaq, which serve as references for market frenzy sentiment, continue to hit new highs. Historically, before midterm elections, the US stock market usually experiences a significant pullback—this is a high-probability event, with funds withdrawing to observe and defend. So, putting it all together now: 1: Bitcoin indicates that risk appetite has not recovered; even if the 5-wave pattern on the weekly level is complete, there is no improvement. 2: Although gold has not given a safe-haven signal (Note: gold is not only a safe haven; it also has actual interest rate pricing logic and is priced in US dollars. The safe-haven effect of geopolitical crises is often directly offset by rising US Treasury real yields). VanEck made a rather interesting statement: Bitcoin is currently in a full surrender phase and will not fall to a lower level within this cycle. This sentence needs to be broken down. The first half means "surrendering." The second half means "will not fall further." Together, it means: the worst is happening but is also about to end. Quantitative basis for the surrender signal VanEck has a "Bitcoin Surrender Detection Table" tracking 12 indicators. Currently, 8 are triggered, and at some point in the past three months, all 12 indicators entered the surrender zone. This is not a casual market opinion but a comprehensive judgment given by a quantitative framework. Notable specific data: Long-term holders reduced about 356,000 BTC in the past 30 days, causing the proportion of long-term holders in circulating supply to fall below 60% for the first time in months. This is the core of the surrender signal. However, reduction does not necessarily mean "selling." It could also be old wallets migrating addresses. But from the data trend, indeed some long-term holders are letting go. Basis for the judgment that "it will not fall to a lower level within this cycle" I believe VanEck's logic for this judgment is mainly based on three points: First, the bottom of this round is expected to be shallower than before. VanEck points out that the last bear market was amplified by systemic collapse events like FTX, Celsius, Terra Luna. This time, there is no chain reaction of that level. So the bottom structure should be milder. Second, spot ETFs provideHonestly, the recent trend of $BTC has been a bit exhausting. Swinging back and forth around 64,000 yuan. but the emperor did not leave. And it didn't fall deeply. People who watch candlesticks every day are probably sick of it. But I actually feel that something major is brewing right now. Why? Because the U.S. attitude toward the crypto world has recently been completely different from before. The SEC has just taken another step forward. A new regulatory framework for crypto assets has already been put in place. Some token issuances may even receive new exemption pathways. The maximum annual issuance can reach up to 75 million USD. (Reuters) What does this mean? What project teams feared most in the past: "Does this coin count as a security?" Now the U.S. is starting to try to draw a line for you. Meanwhile, the Trump administration continues to push for crypto regulation. The CFTC is even advancing products like Bitcoin perpetual futures. It seems the entire U.S. financial system is slowly squeezing cryptocurrencies into the system. (Reuters) But here comes the funniest part. Policies increasingly sound like good news, while BTC prices seem increasingly unnoticed. This is what I am truly wary of. Because when a truly strong market is driven by positive news, the market should immediately rush to buy shares. But now, it's good news coming out. Increase a bit. Then it coiled horizontally. Drop a bit more. Grind again. What does this indicate? At the very least, it shows that current funding has not yet formed true consistency. And good news without capital consensus is often just fireworks for retail investors. What you see is: "U.S. regulation has been relaxed!" Brent crude oil at $91.
Much lower than $120 in 2022.
But the diesel downstairs at your home has already risen to $5.47 per gallon. Only 6% away from the historical peak.
Aren't you asking: Why is diesel close to record highs when oil prices haven't reached their historical peak?
Because you're watching the wrong price.
Most people only focus on crude oil. But the real number that determines inflation trends is another figure—the crack spread.
What is the crack spread? Simply put: how much profit a refinery makes by turning a barrel of crude oil into diesel.
Last year, this number averaged $24.
This Monday, it was $102.2.
Five times the normal level.
In the past six trading days, five days set new records.
Before this year, this indicator never exceeded $89. Not even during the fiercest moments of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
Now, it's triple digits.
What does this $102 mean?
It means that for the same barrel of oil, refineries are earning five times the usual profit.
Who pays this money?
Truck drivers, farmers, couriers, heating providers—every end consumer.
Diesel is not the number you see at the gas station. Diesel is:
Every pound of vegetables delivered to your table by truck
Every grain harvested by the combine
Every kilowatt-hour of electricity running factory machines
Every degree of warmth in your home during winter
When diesel prices rise, it's not just about spending an extra $50 at the pump. Everything becomes more expensive.
Why is this happening? Three simultaneous shocks hit at once.
First: Russia. Ukrainian drones continuously attack Russian refineries, and Russia has extended its diesel export ban until January next year. Russia is one of the world's largest refined fuel exporters—this pipeline is cut off.
Second: Middle East. The US-Iran 60-day ceasefire agreement expires on August 17, and Trump refuses to extend it. Iran says it will adopt a full offensive strategy. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked. On Monday, only six bulk commodity ships passed through, below the 10-day average of 11, with no ultra-large oil tankers.
Third: Refining capacity. According to the International Energy Agency, in July global refinery crude processing averaged 80.9 million barrels per day, a sharp drop of 5 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year.
Crude oil is not lacking. What’s lacking are the plants that can turn crude oil into diesel.
What about US inventories? As of August 7, distillate fuel inventories including diesel and heating oil stood at 107.1 million barrels—the lowest for this time of year since 1996.
The lowest in 30 years.
What’s most frightening now?
The Northern Hemisphere is entering harvest season. Agricultural machinery’s diesel consumption will surge immediately. Then winter comes, and heating oil demand rises again. Then refineries enter seasonal maintenance, reducing capacity further.
Three overlapping demand surges mean the supply gap will only widen.
Even more painful—diesel demand barely responds to price.
When gasoline is expensive, you can drive less. When diesel is expensive? Trucks must run, combines must operate, factories can’t stop.
No alternatives.
Back to what’s in our hands.
Once inflation expectations are ignited by diesel, US Treasury yields will rise. The 10-year Treasury yield is moving toward 5%. Risk assets are under pressure.
But on the other side—
The US dollar index fell to 99.29 on Monday, a two-and-a-half-month low.
A weaker dollar is providing bottom support for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is now around $64,000. On one side is inflation pushing yields up, on the other is dollar weakness providing support.
BTC is stuck between these two forces.
Finally, a straightforward word.
Don’t just watch WTI and Brent.
Crude oil prices are sentiment. The crack spread is reality.
Oil at $91 won’t make your meal more expensive. A $102 crack spread will.
This number has already set a record. The question is—will it stop here or keep rising?
Goldman Sachs says the risk of diesel shortages before winter exceeds that of crude oil itself. Bank of America says the market is entering the strongest demand season with "almost no margin for error."
Winter hasn’t come yet. Harvest season has just begun.
$BTC $BZ $CL $CORE still shows on-chain activity, but the economic picture remains weak.
Thirty-day fees sit around just $254.80, while TVL continues to decline.
That creates a clear divide: capital is rotating toward $BTC for the macro trade, while some is favoring revenue-generating names like $BICO.
Active wallets and transactions can look impressive, but without sustainable revenue, activity alone doesn’t validate the thesis.
The next upgrade may change the story
$CORE $BTC $BICO
#XiaomiQ2Earnings Bitcoin's nearly 11-month correction phase may be nearing its end.
The VanEck research team stated in their latest report that among the 12 market indicators tracked by their "Bitcoin Market Capitulation Check," 8 have shown extreme pessimistic signals. Moreover, all 12 indicators have entered panic sell-off zones within the past three months, suggesting the market has passed the price "capitulation" stage and is approaching or has entered an accumulation phase. The fact that all indicators entered panic sell-off zones in the past three months implies the market has moved past capitulation and is nearing or entering accumulation.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $300 million on Monday, marking the highest single-day inflow since May 5, indicating a rebound in capital momentum.
Historically, the past three bear markets averaged about 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown; this cycle has now entered its 11th month, with a potential bottoming between September and November. However, capitulation signals are not definitive short-term buy indicators; when extreme signals appear, the average returns over the following 90/180 days tend to be lower than the long-term benchmark.
This cycle's bottom may be milder due to the maturity of spot ETFs, broader institutional participation, and the absence of chain leverage shocks like FTX and Celsius.
On-chain, long-term holders (holding >1 year) have reduced their holdings by approximately 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days, bringing total holdings down to about 11.84 million BTC, with their share falling below 60%.
Frequent capitulation indicator alerts are often a prerequisite for bottom formation but do not necessarily mean the lowest point has passed; continued observation of macro capital flows and ETF inflows is needed.
$BTC #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 A company earning 278 million annually with a market value of 444.9 billion. Is Yushu's valuation reasonable?
An 811 times P/E ratio, even Wall Street shakes its head. But the logic of the A-share market has never been about how much you earn now, but whether you can secure an ecological niche. When CATL was first listed, it was also criticized for being expensive, but what about now?
Yushu's real value is not itself, but that it sets a "valuation anchor" for the entire Chinese humanoid robot industry. In the future, whoever in this industry is worth how much will have to use it as a reference. Those mixing concepts can exit; from now on, what counts are real orders and delivery capabilities.
Right now, what’s driving it is faith; what will fall later is rationality. Which side are you on? $ETH $SNDK Xiaomi surges 9%! Dual drive from automotive + chips
$XIAOMI opened today with a sharp 9% jump, stock price soaring to HKD 28.5.
Last night’s earnings report showed a 26% drop in phone shipments, but 104,000 vehicle deliveries and revenue of 23.9 billion. The market votes with its feet — automotive saves the day, not phones dragging behind. The listing of Pengcheng in September is an even bigger catalyst.
Don’t forget the XuanJie chip. On the earnings call, Lu Weibing revealed the next-generation XuanJie chip is about to launch, and the XuanJie O1 has completed million-level shipment validation. The rollout of self-developed chips means there’s room to optimize the cost structure and product strength of the phone business, a hidden line underestimated by the market.
Automotive leads the charge, chips play backup, Xiaomi at HKD 22 is far from reflecting its true value. 🚗
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ This week, $BTC +$ETH spot ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.1 billion, marking the first reversal from continuous outflows this year.
To compare more clearly: the week of August 10 had a net outflow of $389.7 million, and the week before that had a net inflow of $853.5 million.
Money comes and goes, goes and comes back, but this time the low entry was by IBIT—BlackRock alone took 80% of the inflows.
A few days ago, I had dinner with a friend who manages allocation portfolios. He said, "We look at quarters, not days." Retail investors watch the 4-hour chart, they watch the rebalancing window. The same fish, caught with different hooks—I was impressed!
Transmission chain: CPI falls to 3.4% → consensus on high interest rates → funds seek non-sovereign assets → ETFs become a compliant entry point again.
Conclusion: Neutral to bullish.
Strategy: Add positions after holding above $66,400 (100-day moving average); for those without positions, build in 3 batches with stop loss below $58,000. Avoid leverage.
Smart money comes back quieter each time. No wonder they’re called smart money!!
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Three Major Misconceptions in Crypto Investment
Misconception 1: Crypto applications target not just crypto assets, but all assets
I have observed that the biggest mistake investors make is seriously underestimating the market size that crypto applications aim to develop.
Take Uniswap as an example. When this trading application was first launched, it was designed to help users swap crypto assets: $BTC for $ETH, Ethereum for $SOL, and so on.
The total crypto market size is roughly around $2 trillion, with high trading activity, but capped at about $2 trillion. There are five global companies each with a market cap exceeding the entire crypto industry. If you think Uniswap is just a trading tool serving the crypto market, it means you believe it can only capture a portion of the $2 trillion asset trading volume.
However, as stocks, bonds, real estate, and other asset classes gradually become tokenized, Uniswap’s market space will continue to expand:
· Global stock market: $150 trillion
· Global bond market: $350 trillion
Once Uniswap can enter these sectors, the potential opportunity will far exceed what the crypto market alone can accommodate — possibly reaching a scale 100 times larger than today.
This logic also applies to other crypto applications, such as Hyperliquid, Aave, and Chainlink, which have different positioning. People have always viewed them simply as crypto projects, just like how Amazon was once thought to be just an online bookstore.
Today, the industry generally agrees that asset tokenization will penetrate almost all asset categories. But investors have yet to apply this logic to the valuation of underlying platforms that carry tokenized assets.
Misconception 2: Underestimating the competitiveness of native crypto projects compared to traditional financial institutions
Since entering the crypto industry, I have repeatedly heard the argument that traditional financial giants will eventually enter the space and easily crush crypto startups.
Typical cases:
PayPal (launched stablecoin in 2023)
PayPal is a globally recognized brand and a leading payment institution. The public believes it can bring credibility to markets dominated by lesser-known companies like Circle and Tether, and that capital will inevitably flow to PayPal.
However, the reality is different. To date:
· Tether + Circle together hold 88% of the stablecoin market share
· PayPal’s stablecoin market share is only about 1%
Fidelity (launched crypto custody services in 2019)
The market once predicted Fidelity would dominate the crypto custody sector. Although it has steadily developed its crypto custody business, the largest crypto custodian in the U.S. remains the native crypto company Coinbase.
Other cases:
· CME was expected to dominate crypto derivatives trading, but its volume is negligible compared to offshore perpetual contract markets
· Bakkt, created by Intercontinental Exchange, was hoped to become a mainstream gateway for crypto assets but has never grown significantly
Why do native crypto projects continue to win?
1. Faster iteration speed
2. All resources focused on the crypto sector
3. Most importantly: accumulated user base and market trust — within the crypto community, far more people understand and trust Tether than PayPal
Exceptions and patterns
Of course, there are exceptions. BlackRock has the largest Bitcoin ETF (which I have personally experienced).
The general pattern is:
· Traditional financial platforms have advantages in traditional financial categories
· Native crypto applications show strong user stickiness in crypto scenarios
I believe this trend will continue.
Corresponding investment approach
Next time a traditional financial giant announces entry into the native crypto sector, you can take a contrarian position against market consensus; when the industry enters the next development cycle, favor mature leading crypto projects.
Misconception 3: Investors seriously underestimate future trading volume, with potential growth of 10 to 100 times
Blockchain’s profit model mostly relies on transaction fees. When investors evaluate the value of a public chain, they tend to reference existing real-world data: current stock trading volume, current payment transaction counts.
This estimation method has huge deviations.
Time dimension: 5x expansion
Take stock trading as an example: currently, U.S. stock trading hours are Monday to Friday, 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time, totaling only 33 hours per week.
In the tokenization era, assets will be traded 24/7 year-round, with weekly trading hours reaching 168 — a direct 5-fold increase in time.
I’m not claiming trading volume will increase 5 times in sync, but trading activity will very likely rise.
AI variable: exponential amplification
This does not yet include the variable brought by artificial intelligence. With technological development and around-the-clock asset trading, people will likely use AI smart agents to monitor portfolios and execute trades automatically.
Will trading frequency increase — 2x? 10x? Or 100x?
Comprehensive expectation
Combining 24/7 trading and AI agents, it’s easy to imagine stock trading volume growing 10 times, and in extreme cases even 50 or 100 times.
This means public chains and applications handling transactions can achieve significant revenue growth. Although increased volume might drive down per-transaction fees, the large scale expansion usually offsets the impact of fee rate declines.
The payment sector is similar; payment activity driven by smart agents could far exceed current levels.
These misconceptions are not basic errors themselves:
· Estimating market size based on existing scale — a natural analytical habit
· Trusting well-known leading brands — human nature
· Linearly extrapolating from current data — traditional valuation paradigm
But the speed of change in the crypto industry today has already exceeded the adaptability of this traditional analytical framework.
The gap between industry development speed and public cognition update speed is precisely where the opportunity lies.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 Midday Monday, a few thoughts — not on the K-line, but on the current disconnect between market expectations and reality. The market keeps drifting in a tiring range, and it’s not because of concentrated sell pressure or deteriorating technical patterns. The root cause remains a macro-level contradiction: economic data shows resilience, but inflation is not cooling as fast as markets hoped, leaving the Fed’s policy options tightly constrained. Simply put, the economy isn’t collapsing, but pricesHBM price surge drives up infrastructure costs, causing capital to chase storage targets, but the buyer-driven engineering trend to remove HBM is reshaping the valuation transmission chain.
The free cash flow pressure on hyperscale cloud operators and the divergence in cash flow trends of chip stocks confirm the cost inflation pressure faced by hardware procurement. The abnormal market where HBM prices have risen 3 to 10 times has changed market expectations of the supply chain's resistance threshold, triggering risks of crowded high positions.
The driving factors in order are: buyer cost inflation resistance sentiment from cloud computing buyers, commercialization progress of HBM-free chip architectures represented by Groq and Cerebras, and buyers introducing new suppliers and algorithm-side reduction optimizations. Cost pressure directly impacts long risk appetite, prompting funds to reprice HBM-free alternatives.
The bullish scenario premise is that AI inference computing demand growth exceeds expectations and HBM-free architectures are slower to land than expected. In this case, buyers can only passively accept high prices, maintaining high premium positions in the storage sector. It is necessary to observe whether cloud computing capital expenditure growth continues to exceed expectations; the invalidation signal is large-scale commercial deployment of HBM-free architectures like Groq.
The bearish scenario premise is that buyer engineering-driven HBM removal and new supplier introduction take effect. This will reduce pricing power in the storage segment and trigger a sell-off in the sector. It is necessary to observe the procurement ratio of HBM-free architectures in inference chips; the invalidation signal is force majeure causing HBM capacity supply disruption.
The invalidation condition is that if high-bandwidth memory pricing remains high without triggering algorithm-side optimization or architectural detours, the market will revert to the traditional physical shortage pricing framework, and substitution risk logic will be cleared.
The most critical observation variables in the next 7 days are the capital expenditure structure changes announced by hyperscale cloud operators and deployment data of HBM-free architecture inference chips in the computing power market.
#成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 #英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂 #Strategy上周出售3.34亿美元股票，提高美元储备On August 17, on-chain monitoring platform OnchainLens reported that an address that had been dormant since receiving Bitcoin in 2011 was suddenly activated, transferring 8.54 BTC (about $539,000) to the Kraken exchange. Notably, when the address was last active, BTC was priced at only $14. After sleeping for a full 15 years, this "ancient chip" finally chose to flow to the exchange. On the same day, China-listed Zhibao Technology announced the purchase of over 2,300 BTC and listed it as a "reserve asset." Analysts @pete_rizzo_ pointed out on the X platform that Chinese companies have begun openly competing with American firms in the Bitcoin reserve sector. The third signal comes from MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor. According to a report by BeInCrypto on August 18, Strategy currently holds $4.8 billion in cash to protect its preferred stock product, STRC. When asked about the drop in Bitcoin's price, Saylor admitted for the first time: "We also have to have the ability to sell Bitcoin." "This marks Strategy's first shift since 2020 from one-way buying to a balanced offensive and defensive approach. Connecting these three signals reveals a clear picture: Bitcoin's supply structure is undergoing a fundamental transformation. First, let's look at the dormant address. Addresses untouched for 15 years have only transferred 8.54 B$BICO BICO has fallen back to 0.018, leadership change pending verification
Current price is around 0.018, with clear capital outflow. News: CEO replacement, current Chief Business Officer Anders Fogelberg will take over on September 1, former CEO moves to Senior Advisor role, aiming to strengthen commercialization and profit growth. Q2 financial report to be released on August 19, market is focused on guidance.
0.018 is a key support level; breaking below looks toward 0.0178; resistance at 0.0205-0.021 above. Can the leadership change plus financial report reverse the downturn? Wait for data, watch more and trade less. $BTC $OKB $TRIA
1. Strong consolidation (probability 45%): Price oscillates between 0.0100 - 0.0109, waiting for the moving averages to shift upward, and RSI to fall back near 60 before pushing up again. If the pullback does not break 0.0098, it is considered a healthy correction.
2. Continued short squeeze (probability 25%): If trading volume remains above 2 billion and the MACD red bars continue to expand, the price may directly break through 0.0109 and challenge the 0.012 whole number level. However, stronger news or main force actions are needed to support this.
3. Deep pullback (probability 30%): RSI6 overbought combined with profit-taking leads to a rapid price drop to around 0.0092 (WMA5), washing out floating positions before regrouping for an attack. This is the healthiest path but causes the most harm to those chasing highs. If Trump is the one who brought cryptocurrency into the White House, then JD Vance is more like the person seriously studying "why the crypto space is worth America's bet." Vance's attitude toward cryptocurrency is actually quite clear: he supports innovation and especially values Bitcoin's financial sovereignty and strategic significance. At the 2025 Bitcoin Conference, he publicly stated that under the Trump administration, the crypto industry finally has supporters in the White House and believes that Bitcoin and other digital assets have entered the mainstream economy. What's even more noteworthy is that Vance does not simply see BTC as a speculative asset; he places Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset for the United States and supports establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. This is interesting: previously, the crypto community was constantly worried about regulators "cracking down" on the crypto industry, but now the U.S. Vice President is discussing how to make Bitcoin part of the national strategy. The most ironic thing is that the crypto community, which used to fear politics the most, is now studying politics every day; before, everyone was focused on K-lines, but now they also have to watch Congress, the SEC, the CFTC, and the White House. Especially now, with the CLARITY Act facing obstacles and the Senate vote postponed until after recess, the Trump administration is still pushing crypto policies through regulatory agencies. So what really deserves attention about Vance is not just that he said he is "bullish on BTC," but that he connects cryptocurrency with America's future financial competition, technological innovation, and national strategy. Of course, policy support does not guarantee a price increase; ultimately, it still depends on whether capital, applications, and the market truly buy in. The more short positions on $ACE, the easier it is to trigger a rally, so the bullish outlook continues.
The current trend is quite interesting. After a waterfall drop, the price quickly recovers. For such a small altcoin, it’s hard to repair this fast without capital stepping in at the bottom.
Moreover, on-chain data shows that addresses related to the project team are still buying, indicating that someone is accumulating chips at the bottom.
The previous drop was even more extreme, with a nearly 70% plunge followed by a rapid recovery. This reveals one thing: many people chased shorts after seeing the crash, but the price was pulled back up, turning those short positions into fuel for the subsequent rise.
For these highly controlled, manipulated tokens, the biggest fear isn’t lack of buyers but too many short positions. Once the main force pushes the price up again, shorts get squeezed first, attracting retail investors to chase the rally, which easily leads to a second surge.
Therefore, the short-term trend has clearly turned stronger. Don’t rush to short just because of a wick; if the pullback doesn’t break support, keep watching for long opportunities. 12 bottom indicators, 8 have entered the range, how far is $BTC from the bottom?
Data from the VanEck research team shows that 8 out of 12 "capitulation indicators" for Bitcoin have entered extreme ranges, and all were triggered at some point in the past three months.
BTC has retraced about 48% from the October 2025 high, with an adjustment period close to 11 months; previous three bear markets lasted an average of 12.7 months from peak to maximum retracement, so the window for bottoming may be from September to November.
There are also signs of demand recovery: the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net inflow of nearly $300 million, the highest since early May.
However, one data point shows that long-term holders reduced their holdings by about 356,000 BTC in the past month, with their share of circulating supply falling below 60% for the first time.
These "capitulation signals" indicate selling pressure is being released but do not confirm the bottom yet.
ETF funds have started to take over some chips, but the market still needs to absorb the selling from long-term holders.
The current trend looks more like bottoming and grinding, definitely not a reversal.
A true confirmation signal requires BTC to break above $66,500 with volume and hold the upper range on a pullback.
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard The $XRP story is a good reminder that good headlines don't always translate into price appreciation. Despite regulatory progress, ETF launches, Ripple's expansion and growing XRPL activity, $XRP is still down roughly 72% from its 2025 peak. The bigger issue appears to be demand: institutional ETF inflows have slowed sharply while supply continues to enter the market through escrow releases. For $XRP , I think the next major move will depend less on another headline and more on whether real, sTrump's attitude toward cryptocurrency, viewed over several years, is almost like a reenactment of the "true fragrance law" (a phrase meaning initially rejecting something but later embracing it). In his early years, Trump openly questioned Bitcoin, believing cryptocurrencies were too volatile; but later, his stance clearly shifted to support the crypto industry, proposing to make the U.S. the "global crypto capital." Now, this is no longer just verbal statements. The Trump administration is pushing for a friendlier digital asset regulatory environment, the SEC recently proposed a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, and the White House continues to emphasize advancing market structure legislation like the CLARITY Act. Interestingly, even though the bill faces resistance, the market is still waiting for the day when "U.S. regulation finally becomes clear." So I think Trump's biggest impact on the crypto space may not be a simple "support for Bitcoin" statement, but rather pushing cryptocurrency from being an emerging asset easily excluded by traditional finance to a topic on the national policy and financial competition table. Of course, supporting the crypto industry does not necessarily mean BTC, ETH, or SOL will definitely rise; policy benefits ultimately need to be validated by capital, applications, and market sentiment. Even the Trump family's own crypto business has made "conflicts of interest" a part of political controversy in the U.S. This is the most ironic part of the crypto world: before, people worried the president disliked cryptocurrency; now that the president likes it too much, people worry he might be taking it "a bit too seriously." But in any case, the direction of U.S. policy has clearly changed.Today, the most explosive in the market is not $BTC, nor $ETH, but Yushu Technology!
Today, Yushu Technology officially landed on the STAR Market, with an issue price of ¥150.8. It surged directly to ¥1100 at the opening, an increase of 629.44%, with a market value once exceeding ¥440 billion.
Based on the opening price, one lot of 500 shares yields a paper profit of nearly ¥475,000.
What’s most worth studying today is why there is such a huge price gap between the two markets?
A-shares are real listed company stocks, with equity, dividend rights, and a formal trading mechanism.
Whereas crypto contracts are essentially derivative prices formed around the expectation of Yushu’s listing, which does not mean you actually bought Yushu stock. This must be clearly understood!
I think the most dangerous today are those bullish on Yushu. Because what you buy is not stock, but a derivative highly dependent on sentiment, expectations, and liquidity.
This kind of cross-market trend is worth watching:
Who is pricing in advance?
Who is chasing the price?
Can the price gap between the two markets continue to widen?
This is the biggest insight Yushu gives to the crypto circle today.
The main theme of robots, AI, and embodied intelligence will be very hot later. But those who understand the price gap profit from volatility; those who don’t will ultimately lose their positions.
#闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 BTC held sideways at 64,300, while ETH followed at 1,911. SNDK is still grinding around 1,600, as if the whole market is waiting for something. But I stared at one indicator all day: the ETH/BTC exchange rate. 0.0298. Just one step away from 0.03. This number has never been effectively broken in the past three months. Every time it approaches 0.03, it is pushed back, and then ETH enters a new round of correction. But this time, it might be different. 📊 Why is it different this time? First, BTC has already caught up in the rally. It rose from 62,800 to 64,400, an increase of 2.5%. The historical pattern is: BTC rises first→ moves sideways→ ETH catches up→ ETH/BTC strengthens→ ETH is the main rally. Now BTC has finished catching up and is trading sideways—now it's ETH's turn. Second, after SNDK's crash, funds did not leave the market. The storage sector fell 10%-20%, but ETH and BTC did not follow suit. This shows that funds have not fled the crypto market, but are simply flowing out of the storage sector, seeking new opportunities in ETH and BTC. Third, the exchange rate is quietly climbing. It climbed from 0.0295 to 0.0298, and although it rose by only 0.0003, it was the most stable upward trend in the past month. If the ETH/BTC rate breaks through 0.03, ETH's next target is not 1,950, but 2,050 or even higher. 📊 Key Levels Variety Current Price Key Support Key Resistance BHere's a well-worn topic: the more successful the $BTC ETF, the lower the internal money multiplier in the crypto market.
The money multiplier, in simple terms, means how many times the same money can circulate in the market, generating purchasing power.
This was the fundamental driving force behind altcoins in previous cycles.
As of August 14, the cumulative net inflow into the US spot BTC ETF is about $51.857 billion.
The market usually interprets these funds as a potential liquidity source for the entire crypto market: institutions first buy BTC, and after BTC rises, funds rotate into ETH, SOL, and altcoins.
The ETF structure is weakening this pathway.
Take IBIT as an example: the fund's assets are mainly BTC held by custodians. Ordinary investors cannot directly redeem their ETF shares for BTC.
When purchasing with cash, the fund or counterparties convert cash into BTC; upon redemption, BTC is delivered or sold and cash is delivered.
ETF holders gain BTC price exposure but do not receive on-chain BTC.
These BTC, which ETF investors use as collateral to borrow stablecoins, cannot directly enter DeFi, nor do they naturally flow into altcoin trading pools.
Therefore, buying $1 billion worth of BTC via two different paths results in completely different subsequent effects.
Buying BTC spot on exchanges allows sellers to receive stablecoins and then purchase ETH, SOL, or other assets, enabling multiple rounds of capital turnover. Buying via ETF completes a closed loop among fund shares, authorized participants, and custodied BTC, with significantly weaker or even absent secondary purchasing power entering the on-chain market.
This creates a new crypto structure:
BTC gains a more stable traditional capital inflow, compressing the circulating BTC supply; meanwhile, the rest of the crypto market loses the money multiplier effect previously driven by BTC wealth.
Thus, long-term ETF success can bring two outcomes simultaneously:
1. Increased BTC scarcity, expanding BTC's advantage relative to altcoins
2. Slower on-chain credit expansion, weakening altcoin rotation strength
Current data already provides some evidence: BTC ETFs have absorbed over $50 billion cumulatively, yet the total stablecoin market cap has decreased by 0.62% in the past 30 days, remaining around $300.76 billion.
While the ETF capital pool is huge, the on-chain dollar pool has not grown correspondingly, indicating that the two capital channels have separated.Yesterday I told the brothers to take profits quickly while SanDisk $SNDK investors were euphoric during Investor Day. Today it dropped directly by -9%, confirming it—when the price rises too high, expectations get overdrawn and then it crashes.
Investor Day played three cards: long-term gross margin 80%, operating margin 75%; half of next year's capacity and two-thirds the year after are fully booked, locking in $93.9 billion in revenue; plus $15.5 billion in buybacks, which is solid. But the +8.88% gain on the day already priced in next year's and the year after's performance. On 8/18, the entire storage sector collapsed: Micron -7%, Western Digital -7%, Seagate -9%, Kioxia ADR -13%, SNDK dropped from 1786 to 1626, about -9%.
This is not SNDK's own fault; it's the AI narrative loosening that brought down the whole market. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.33% (the highest since 2007), WSJ revealed $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments from 9 tech giants, and "big short" Burry warned of triple compression from AI demand decline + profit drop + tightening financing. Long-term rates are killing duration assets.
RSI has fallen from overbought, but panic selling hasn't cleared yet; 1626 is not the bottom. Long-term contracts transforming the company into one with "a floor" is real evolution, but short-term expectations are too full, and the correction has just begun.
Trading strategy: don't catch the falling knife; wait for a pullback to the 5-day moving average (around 1500-1550) before considering; those trapped should reduce positions on rebounds. The floor logic of long-term contracts remains unchanged, but short-term correction risk far outweighs upside—take profits first.Brothers, storage stocks suffered a collective slaughter on Tuesday. SanDisk closed at $1,625.78, plunging 9.01%; Seagate fell 9.16%, SK Hynix ADR dropped 9.2%, Western Digital dropped 7.43%, and Micron fell 7.02%. All five stocks fell more than the Nasdaq's 1.33% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 4.98%. The storage sector plunged collectively, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index recording its largest single-day drop since July 29. Three factors combined to ignite this wave of selling pressure. First, U.S. Treasury yields have soared to their highest level since 2007. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5.3361% intraday. The surge in risk-free rates has put direct pressure on growth stock valuations. Second, the profit-taking targets are too thick. SanDisk just rose 8.88% on Monday, following a weekly surge of about 35%. Starting from the August 5 low of 1226, the two-week rebound has exceeded 45%. Mizuho Securities analysts pointed out that market trading volume in August was relatively low, and program trading may have amplified the decline in chip stocks. Third, institutional holdings are too crowded. Morgan Stanley data shows that SanDisk has become the most crowded institutional holdings among large tech stocks, with institutional holdings significantly exceeding the S&P 500 weight. High valuations combined with doubts about long-term profit margin targets mean profit-taking is on the verge of erupting. Declines are falls; disagreements are the key. The valuation divide between bulls and bears over SanDisk has escalated from a "cyclical stock" to a pricing battle over "AI infrastructure assets." Bulls believe NBM long-term contracts have reshaped the business model—$93.9 billion guaranteed revenue, 80% gross margin target, 100%We crypto traders usually watch the K-line, but financial reports are basically fundamental analysis too; the principles are similar. When Xiaomi's Q2 financial report came out, the market went wild: did the car save the day, or did the phone hold it back? I happen to have some time now, so let's break it down together.
First, the conclusion: the car is the "face," the phone is the "substance." The face looks good, but the substance is a bit wrinkled.
After the delivery of the Xiaomi car SU7, the financial report finally had a new story. Previously, Xiaomi was just phones plus a miscellaneous store, but now there's an "intelligent electric vehicle" segment, adding revenue directly and showing impressive growth. But note, the car business is still in the money-burning stage; they lose money on every car sold, so it negatively impacts profits. What it saves is revenue and imagination, not the profit statement. The capital market loves this kind of story; having a narrative creates valuation, so the stock price probably surged.
What about phones? The core business, but now the global phone market is a red ocean, Huawei is back, Apple has cut prices, and Xiaomi's move to high-end hasn't fully stabilized. Q2 phone shipments probably didn't collapse, but growth is definitely weak, and gross margins might be squeezed. When the phone business weakens, the whole company's profit foundation wobbles. So I say the phone is holding things back—not revenue, but the profit and valuation safety net.
So who really saved whom? My view: the car gave Xiaomi a lifeline, letting the market temporarily forget the old phone problems. But if you tally the full account, Xiaomi still can't make money from cars, and if the phone's core business keeps declining, the car story alone won't hold up for long. It's like in crypto: no matter how strong altcoins pump, if BTC is unstable, the whole market trembles.
So don't rush to conclude "the car saved the day." In the short term, the car is a shot in the arm; in the long term, the phone is the ballast. The Q2 report feels more like a "mid-transformation progress report"—there are highlights, but risks remain. As a trader, I see one thing in financial reports: expectation gaps. The market's expectations for Xiaomi cars were low before, now exceeded, so the price rose; but if phones continue to disappoint next time, the expectation gap reverses, and the stock will get hit. What do you think? #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
As for me, I'm buying the dip, continuing to pick up $OKB and waiting for it to hit 200 $BTC $ETH $SNDK On Tuesday, all US stocks closed lower. The Nasdaq fell 1.33%, leading the decline. The S&P fell for three consecutive days. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to a 19-year high. Japan, Germany, and France all saw their long-term bonds rise. Global sovereign bond yields surged collectively because oil prices couldn't hold up. New York crude oil is now $84.94. US-Iran negotiations have completely stalled. Trump has bluntly stated that there will be no talks or talks. The maritime blockade remains fully in effect, and there are even threats to attack Oman. Semiconductors have become the hardest-hit areas. SanDisk, SK, Hynix, and Seagate have fallen over 9%. Western Digital and Micron have dropped over 7%. Among the seven major players, except for Apple and Microsoft, all fell slightly. Meta fell over 4%, Nvidia dropped over 2%. US stocks are still focused on earnings and AI narratives, but the bond market has already turned hostile. The core of this adjustment isn't fundamentals, but interest rates being repriced. Oil prices and geopolitics are pushing long-term yields upward. Growth stocks and semiconductors—these high-valuation stocks—are the first to be hit. In the short term, the key is whether US Treasury yields can hold steady. If the 30-year term continues to rise, US stocks will have room to adjust. For BTC, the macro backdrop is rising interest rates and shrinking risk appetite Short-term pressure is highly likely, but on the flip side, if the inflation panic caused by oil prices passes, crypto might be one of the first assets to rebound, because expectations of rate cuts will return. Now is not the time to bottom-fish, but to wait for signals. #财报观察员: Xiaomi Q2 earnings report—will cars save the market or will smartphones hold it back? #SEC提出 Draft of the "Crypto Asset Regulation" #闪迪回落逾9%,The market has actually already drawn the path: as long as BTC doesn't drop below 62,500, the trend remains a steady upward oscillation, so there's no talk of a deep correction risk. In the short term, focus first on the 65,400 hurdle; if it can hold above that within two days, reaching 67,000 within a week isn't aggressive. Looking further two weeks ahead, pushing along, the 68K-72K range is the natural target, with 69K acting as a consolidation rather than a peak.
ETH is the one that really has my attention this round. While BTC is undergoing a "confirmed breakout," ETH seems to be experiencing a "catch-up elasticity"—BTC stabilizes upward, funds move in waves, and 2100 is just the initial target. Looking higher, 2200-2300 actually offers more imaginative potential than BTC's linear projection. My consistent feeling remains: BTC sets the direction, ETH offers the odds.BTC holding near $64.4k while the 30-year yield sits at a 2007 high is the more important signal today. A modest green tape under that macro pressure suggests crypto demand is absorbing tighter financial conditions, but not yet strong enough to call a broad risk-on turn.
SOL’s relative strength stands out, while BTC and ETH remain measured. I would treat this as selective positioning rather than a market-wide breakout, with custody and regulatory headlines improving the backdrop but yields still setting the near-term ceiling.
Just my read, not advice.Yushi Technology debuted on the STAR Market today, directly claiming the title of the first humanoid robot stock.
Issue price: ¥150.8
Opening price: ¥1100
Opening increase: 629.44%
New share subscription profit: 500 shares per lot earned ¥474,600, setting a new record this year
Market value change: from an initial valuation of ¥61 billion to an instant surge to ¥444.9 billion
Fundamentals: 2025 revenue of ¥1.7 billion, net profit of ¥278 million, humanoid robot shipments exceeding 5,500 units
Why did it explode like this?
Extremely scarce
Most people speculate on components, but Yushi is one of the very few companies that can directly show mass production of complete machines and is already profitable at scale.
Sentiment and capital premium
Tesla Optimus is unavailable, so Yushi has become the best vehicle for capital to bet on embodied intelligence.
Application scenario limitations
Currently, the vast majority of shipments are still sold to universities and research institutions; factory and household scenarios have not yet been truly realized.
Revenue growth without profit growth
To reduce costs and gain market share, coupled with surging R&D and sales expenses, profits in Q1 this year have already dropped by over 50%.
Short term
Sharp correction: a 6x increase has preemptively priced in several years of future performance. With strong profit-taking, increased turnover will inevitably lead to a shakeout; chasing highs is extremely risky.
Medium term
Industry reshuffle: Yushi will become the valuation anchor for domestic robotics, accelerating the elimination of storytelling companies as the industry enters a delivery competition phase.
Long term
Focus on scenario implementation: two indicators matter—steady cash flow from quadrupeds and volume growth of humanoids in factories. If successful, it will become a benchmark for intelligent manufacturing; if not, the high valuation will burst the bubble #花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容
The leader has something to say
Citibank is also in.
They plan to launch native crypto asset custody within 2026, initially supporting BTC. Citibank officially stated very clearly that they have already done stablecoin reserves and crypto ETF custody, and now they want to include native crypto assets into the institutional custody system.
This is different from ETFs. ETFs provide price exposure, custody provides a real BTC holding path. If institutions want to put BTC directly on their balance sheets, they used to have to find Coinbase or build their own custody, but now Citibank has opened a new path. The traditional risk control, reporting, and compliance frameworks are all connected, no need to build an extra system.
For institutional allocation, custody is the last barrier. Price volatility is not the problem; compliance and operational risk are. A bank of Citibank's level entering means the compliance threshold for BTC has been raised a notch.
But coins have two sides. The institutional entry barrier is lowered, BTC will further concentrate into the custody systems of large financial institutions. The layer of on-chain autonomy is not a priority for institutional funds anyway.
Last night, BTC shorted at 64300, stop loss at 65000, then continued to add positions on the way up. The news is somewhat positive, but the price hasn't moved, indicating the market is still waiting, so hold on first.
SPCX base position continues its pattern, profits are thick enough. Wait to see after $SNDK adjusts, no rush.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, orders must have stop losses set, good luck. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #Citi Launches $BTC Custody + BlackRock Reaffirms Allocation Value
This week, while browsing the OKX topic list, I saw two institutional $BTC signals simultaneously. Citi plans to launch $BTC custody services, expanding institutional access; BlackRock reaffirms $BTC's allocation value, with discussion volume up 200% in 24h. One is about custody infrastructure, the other about asset allocation narrative. Both emerging in the same week made me decide to analyze what's happening behind the scenes.
The significance of Citi launching $BTC custody is not just another big bank entering crypto, but that it solves the last major hardware gap for institutional entry. Large institutions (pension funds, insurance, sovereign wealth funds) cannot keep $BTC on exchanges or cold wallets; they need a trustee: a custodian with a banking license, regulated by the OCC, capable of asset segregation. Citi plays this role.
BlackRock reaffirming $BTC's allocation value is a top-level narrative. BlackRock's IBIT is the world's largest $BTC spot ETF. Their reaffirmation is not just lip service; it signals RIAs and wealth management platforms to continue including $BTC in client portfolios. BlackRock's persuasion target is not retail investors but the advisor network managing trillions in assets.
Putting these two lines together is clear: Citi provides custody so institutions have a place to hold $BTC, BlackRock provides the narrative so institutions have a reason to buy $BTC. The former solves where to hold it, the latter solves why to buy it.
I pulled some on-chain and ETF data.
@blckchaindaily reported on 8/18 that $BTC returned to $64K, with a market share of 57.2%, the first time in a week at this level. @coinbureau added hard data: Jane Street's Q2 $BTC ETF holdings doubled to $992 million. Jane Street is a market maker; their increased holdings are not long-term allocations but market making amid volatility, which indicates institutions are continuously increasing $BTC exposure.
@wiseadvicesumit reported Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said $BTC could become the world's next reserve currency. Hearing this from an exchange CEO is not surprising, but combined with Citi custody and BlackRock's allocation narrative, it's not just talk—it's the industry chain from custody to exchanges to asset management pushing in the same direction.
I checked OKX market data: $BTC perpetual on 8/19 at 04:00 was $64,333.1, up 0.47% in 24h; funding rate +0.0100%, open interest about $2.12 billion. The market is stable, no jump due to these two news items; I judge the market has not yet priced in custody and allocation narratives.
$ETH perpetual is at $1,911.03, up 1.31% in 24h, more than double $BTC's gain. $ETH has been outperforming $BTC for several consecutive days, not a one-day fluke but a sustained pattern.
The $ETH on-chain signals I track are also stacking up. BitMine holds 5.815 million $ETH, 4.8% of total supply; the staking exit queue is zero again, with 2.17 million $ETH queued to enter. The Ethereum protocol architecture team announced Hegotá's preferred solution: FOCIL + Frame Transactions for censorship resistance and privacy. $ETH is not relying on custody narratives but is being repriced through staking lockups and protocol upgrades.
Looking at both chains together: $BTC is entering via bank custody + asset management narrative; $ETH is entering via staking lockups + protocol upgrades. Different directions, same result—institutions are entering from both ends simultaneously.
@glassnode posted data on 8/18: $BTC underperformed the S&P 500 on 2 of 3 days, but when it outperformed, the excess returns were significantly larger; these excess returns have been slowly declining over the years.
My interpretation is: $BTC is being absorbed by traditional finance. Increasing frequency of underperforming the S&P indicates growing correlation with US stocks; declining excess returns indicate shrinking independent alpha. Along with @mars_bnb's observation that SanDisk $SNDK's Binance futures volume surpassed $BTC, attention in crypto markets is shifting from $BTC to tokenized US stock assets.
But here's a counterintuitive point worth mentioning: $BTC being absorbed by traditional finance is precisely the premise for Citi's custody launch and BlackRock's reaffirmation of allocation value. If $BTC remained independent of traditional finance, banks wouldn't offer custody, and asset managers wouldn't allocate. Being absorbed is the cost and path of $BTC institutionalization.
As usual, I pose three questions and want to hear your thoughts:
Citi launches $BTC custody + BlackRock reaffirms allocation value—do you bet this is the start of institutional entry or already mid-stage?
Glassnode says $BTC's excess returns over the S&P are declining—do you think $BTC being absorbed by traditional finance is good or bad?
$BTC enters via bank custody, $ETH via staking lockups—which institutional capital path do you think is more sustainable?
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #BTCcustody #BlackRockAfter spending a long time in the crypto circle, I've gradually come to understand that BTC and ETH are like two old friends with completely different styles.
$BTC is more steady, like the savings you keep at home for emergencies. When the market panics, the first thing people look at is BTC. Every move of ETF funds is focused on it, and institutions prefer to use it as a base holding. Its rise isn't very rapid, but it’s relatively resilient when it falls.
$ETH is more like a daring and ambitious young person, with many ecosystem stories and lively activity on-chain. When the market moves, its explosive power is very strong, but the cost is high volatility.
In summary, if you seek stability, you rely more on BTC; if you want to play with flexibility, look at ETH. I personally prefer ETH because it has the drive like us young people.
#花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容 $XRP: Good news arrived, but the price dropped first
Ripple just entered the South Korean banking system, yet $XRP once fell below $1.
This slap left the bulls a bit confused.
On August 18, Ripple announced a partnership with Jeonbuk Bank in South Korea to provide enterprise clients with 24/7, near real-time cross-border payment services; this is the first regional bank in South Korea to deploy Ripple Payments.
Previously, remittances required multiple intermediary banks and took several days; the goal is to reduce this to seconds or minutes.
The story is solid.
But the price didn’t cooperate.
$XRP once fell below $1 that day, then bounced back to around $1.06.
More importantly, the official statement does not clearly specify that these settlement flows must use XRP; other settlement assets may also be involved.
So “banks adopting Ripple” cannot be directly translated as “banks buying large amounts of XRP.”
The most costly misunderstanding in the crypto community is automatically equating a company’s business growth with token buy demand.
If $XRP can firmly hold above $1.08 again, the market may re-trade the bank partnership narrative; if it falls below $1 again, this news will likely be treated as a one-time positive realization.
Are you buying Ripple’s progress, or is $XRP truly capturing value?$SNDK whales have already exited the bulls, preparing to lay low again!
It surged nearly 9% yesterday, skyrocketed 35% in a week, and soared more than 6 times this year — only to give it all back in one day.
It's not a company disaster; it's the US Treasury yields spiking to a new high since 2007, scaring all tech stocks.
How much longer can AI burning cash hold up? Chinese production capacity is chasing hard, oil prices have surged again, and funds are in a panic.
SK Hynix, Western Digital, and Micron all dropped over 7%, and programmatic sell-offs amplified the panic.
In short: the rise was too steep, now it's collective deleveraging. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案 #闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 #BTC trading volume shrinks, can ETF buying rebound? #Significant decline in correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq: independence or illusion? #US crypto institutionalization landing: BTC first locks compliance status, ETH awaits ultimate valuation explosion🚨
Top-level US crypto policies continue to be implemented, accelerating the institutionalization process comprehensively.
Many people generally treat policy benefits as a broad rally, but the real capital rhythm is very clear:
BTC first realizes compliance certainty, ETH later unlocks ecosystem valuation imagination. The levels of benefits and explosion rhythms of the two are completely different.
$BTC: First to obtain the official compliance "entry pass"
BTC is the core asset best suited for traditional financial regulation with minimal institutional resistance.
With a mature spot ETF system, top global liquidity, and a simple scarcity narrative, there are no complex business disputes.
As the US regulatory framework takes shape, BTC is officially included in bank custody, institutional asset management, corporate treasury, pension allocation, and traditional derivatives systems.
Its market logic has been completely upgraded:
From the past "whether it can be compliant" struggle to the current "how institutions standardize allocation" certainty market.
Institutionalization landing confirms BTC's identity and solidifies its status, representing the highest certainty policy benefit at this stage.
$ETH: Waiting for detailed rules to land, gearing up for ultimate valuation reappraisal
ETH is not just a simple token but the entire underlying infrastructure of on-chain finance.
Its valuation is deeply tied to staking yields, DeFi ecosystem, stablecoin circulation, RWA tokenization, and L2 networks.
Each sector requires detailed regulatory rules and business compliance certainty to fully unlock the value ceiling.
BTC benefits directly from relaxed access boundaries;
ETH requires a complete set of financial rules, a compliant ecosystem closed loop, and institutional adaptation to fully unleash its potential.
In summary of policy benefit differences:
BTC is an access-type benefit, landing fast, with strong certainty, stabilizing and realizing first;
ETH is an ecosystem-type benefit, with a longer landing cycle, higher rule requirements, but greater future elasticity.
In plain terms:
BTC obtains a universal access license, compliant entry with fewer capital concerns, so policy-driven market stabilizes first;
ETH obtains an operating license for the new on-chain financial city, requiring supporting rules, regulatory frameworks, and mature institutional ecosystems, needing time to build for a true main rally.
Perfectly matching the current market:
$BTC stabilizes near 64000, pricing in the certainty premium of institutional assets in advance;
$ETH hovers around 1900, still awaiting on-chain financial compliance landing and ecosystem value reappraisal.
Future policy advancement rhythm is clear:
Short-term BTC: continuously attract institutional allocation through compliance identity, build a solid market bottom, stabilize and support the market;
Mid-to-long-term ETH: when staking, DeFi, stablecoin, and RWA regulatory rules all land, ETH's infrastructure value will fully explode, with elasticity far exceeding BTC.
Under the big cycle of crypto institutionalization:
BTC earns the certainty identity dividend, ETH earns the growth dividend of future on-chain finance.
The rhythm is sequential, but both are the core mainlines of this round of compliance bull market.
$BTC $ETHThis week, the BTC market received three consecutive positive factors: a surprising non-farm payroll report, $750 million inflow into ETFs, and US stocks hitting all-time highs. However, BTC's performance was underwhelming; the price only rose slightly and has been hovering around 65,000, unable to break up or down. Why is this?
What you see as positive, I see as insufficient volume, four rejections at 65K, and bulls unable to hold their ground. This is not that the market "doesn't want to rise," but rather "it can't push up for now."
In this article, I will review the true state of this week's market: which variables are genuine positives, which signals warrant caution, and the three most likely paths after next week's CPI data release. After reading, you should have a clear judgment on next week's direction.
1. Market Review This Week: Three major positives failed to push the price up? The main reasons the price can't rise are:
Reason 1: ETF purchases are concentrated in institutional channels, but US retail investors have not followed. US institutions are buying through ETFs, but relative buying on Coinbase spot market remains weak. The Coinbase premium index has been negative for 80 consecutive days, indicating institutional funds mainly flow into ETF products rather than directly buying on Coinbase spot market.
Reason 2: 65K is a hard resistance. This week, the price tested 65K multiple times and was rejected three times. Since late July, 65K has blocked price increases four times. The 66,300-66,900 range was the top area of the July rebound, adding extra pressure.
Reason 3: Volume can't keep up. When the price broke through 64K, volume surged, but after hitting 65K, volume steadily shrank. Since July 1, daily charts still show volume-price divergence, indicating a low-participation rebound prone to quick reversal.
2. Real Impact of Macro Drivers Review
(1) Non-farm Data: The positive effect lasted only an hour!
July non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000, far below the expected 80,000. After the data release, implied volatility quickly dropped; the market had priced in the non-farm data and shifted focus to next week's CPI.
The market's pricing of September rate hike probability dropped from 67% a week ago to about 49%-55%. Traders remain cautious; weak employment data supports rate cuts, but whether September will see no hike depends on CPI.
(2) Geopolitics: No deal yet, oil price rebound is a risk!
Before non-farm, positive signals came from US-Iran talks on the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to plunge and easing inflation concerns. However, Iran's stance remains tough; despite "deal close," no agreement was reached. Oil prices rebounded sharply in the latter half of the week, with Brent crude returning to $82-83. The transmission chain to BTC is clear: oil price rise → inflation expectations heat up → rate hike worries reignite → BTC under pressure. As long as no deal is signed, geopolitical risk premium can return anytime. In the short term, the US-Iran-Israel conflict is unlikely to end completely.
(3) US Stock Correlation: S&P 500 hits new highs, why didn't BTC follow?
BTC's correlation with US stocks remains above 45%, but BTC clearly underperformed this week. The root cause is the late bear market phase, with insufficient liquidity inside crypto markets, existing funds battling each other, ETF inflows offset by outflows elsewhere, and persistently low retail participation. The market is in a "weak supply and demand" state.
3. BTC Bull-Bear Volume and Trading Volume Analysis
This week's volume structure shows a typical "breakout with volume surge, then volume contraction at highs" stalemate.
On Tuesday, volume surged significantly on the breakout above 64K, showing clear main force entry intent. But volume shrank in the following days: Wednesday and Thursday saw volume contraction, and Friday's non-farm data stimulus failed to sustain volume expansion.
Daily volume and price direction diverged clearly. Price rose, but volume did not follow. This is not a healthy upward structure but a "low conviction, low participation" rebound prone to reversal. Notably, daily lows have been gradually rising this week: 62,296 → 63,318 → 63,868 → 64,165. Buying is coming in, but each time it stops near 65K, forming a "higher lows + same highs" pattern, a typical compression structure where bulls and bears are pushing the price toward a decision point.
4. Volume-Price Relationship and Structural Pattern Analysis
65K-65.7K is the most critical short-term resistance zone. This week, 65K rejected price rises three times, with multiple blocks since July. In the Fibonacci retracement framework (anchored 57,800 → 67,500), the 0.236 level is at 65,300. This week's high of 65,200 just touched it before falling back—precisely positioned. Isn't natural trading theory amazing?
Once 65K is broken and a daily candle closes with a bullish body, the next supply zone is at 65,700, then the July high range of 66,300-66,900. Holding these levels would open rebound space to 67,000-67,500.
On the downside, 63,868 is the short-term bull lifeline. If it closes below this, 62,296 becomes the next threshold. The 62,000-65,000 range is currently Bitcoin's largest historical cost concentration zone, with over half the supply locked near breakeven. Once the price leaves this range, large funds will be forced to move. Who will win the bull-bear battle? The next two to three weeks will reveal. My preliminary judgment is that the bulls will most likely lose!$XRP (Ripple) — Currently $0.998, 24h +0.63%
$XRP currently at $0.998, down from $1.006 to $1.002 over 7 days, basically flat, with average trading volume.
I am Yuvi.
Let's talk about the value of $XRP at its current position: $1 is the psychological anchor price for XRP. Since surpassing $1, it has neither effectively broken through nor fallen below, indicating a temporary balance between bulls and bears at this price level. The advantage is that the biggest uncertainty after the SEC lawsuit has been removed, and institutional holdings are increasing; the downside is the lack of new price catalysts, and relying solely on the "compliance narrative" cannot sustain continuous upward momentum.
My strategy: mainly hold, do not chase positions above $1, consider adding positions again if it pulls back to $0.95. 07:30→08:10, the two funding firms continued to diverge. OKX BTC rose from 0.00197% to 0.00592%, while Binance BTC dropped from 0.00164% to 0.00137%; ETH and the two exchanges are moving in opposite directions; SOL Binance remained at 0.01000%, OKX dropped to 0.00416%. Conclusion: The two exchange offices have not reached a consensus direction, so a one-sided trend is not confirmed for now. BTC 24-hour short liquidations amounted to $55.1966 million, accounting for 93.02%, but the opening interest decreased by 0.34%. This is more like concentrated short-selling liquidation, not a continuous chase by new funds. ETH OI fell 0.28%, with long liquidations slightly dominating; SOL OI increased by 3.59%, while short positions accounted for 72.91% of the contracts, making it the most noticeable coin with congestion today. The 08:50 supplementary snapshot shows BTC 8-hour ADX at 21.29, still below 25; the price is above MA20 and MA50. Price structure has recovered, but the trend strength is insufficient. The 24-hour market long-bear distribution was 51.83% / 48.17%, with bulls holding only a slight advantage. Today's Highlights: BTC: Obvious short squeeze, but OI is declining, so no chase for now. ETH: Dual Funding Conflict, Unclear Direction. SOL: OI growth and funding are relatively high, with a focus on guarding against congestion reversal. Since some data was supplemented after the 08:10 window, the coin-level long-short ratio is still missing. The official conclusion: WAIT / N$CORE released the latest narrative on its official Twitter early this morning:
Core is the infrastructure for Bitcoin product integration. Payments, lending, collateral, yield.
CORE will continue to grow based on Bitcoin's utility.
The entire text outlines a grand BTCFi blueprint, but it should be clear that this is more of a future development vision rather than a reality already fulfilled.
There is a highly misleading logical switch here:
Building Bitcoin-related applications on-chain does not equate to a rigid demand to buy CORE in the secondary market.
Payments, lending, collateral, and yield generation are just planned ecosystem capabilities; the sector's dividends will not automatically transfer to the native token.
Ordinary users using BTCFi services do not necessarily need to continuously buy and accumulate CORE in the secondary market.
During a prolonged weakening phase of the market, they talk grandly about infrastructure positioning but remain silent on the secondary market challenges.
Continuous unlocking of tokens, layers of trapped positions stacked above, and a long-term absence of incremental off-exchange funds.
There are many competitors in the BTCFi sector; the dividends are not exclusive to CORE.
No matter how grand the ecosystem vision is, it is ultimately just a story.
Whether the ecosystem can grow and whether the token can attract sustained buying are two completely different matters.
Do not mistake the roadmap's plans for confidence in a market reversal.
Titles are just empty names; no matter how many tokens there are, they cannot attract incremental funds.
⚠️This is an objective review based on public information only and does not constitute investment advice.Stripe has spent over $7 billion to acquire an AI routing platform, with the US stock giant rapidly tightening the channels at the intelligent agent interface layer. Traditional capital locks in front-end traffic at high valuations, compressing the profit space of on-chain settlement and decentralized computing power into a low-margin range. If tech giants continue to tilt routing towards closed ecosystems, the valuation of on-chain networks lacking real external paid support will come under pressure and weaken. This entrance monopoly will only loosen when decentralized nodes can achieve high availability and trustless verification; the key observation point is the proportion of external real income of computing power subnets.
#闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 #SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高The recent strength of $ACE is not simply driven by retail funds; Lao Xue has monitored that the project team's associated wallets on-chain have been continuously accumulating tokens.
Previously, it was directly dumped by 70%, and many thought the market was done for. However, it quickly recovered its losses. The signals hidden in the market are actually very clear: there is a large accumulation of short positions in the market.
For such highly controlled tokens, once the number of short positions reaches a critical point, it is easy to trigger a second round of rally, leveraging the short squeeze to push prices up.
Currently, the short-term trend has firmly entered an upward channel, with the uptrend clearly visible. Following the momentum to go long is currently the most natural and safest choice. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ $ETH $BTC Here is a set of fundamental data that is easily overlooked to accompany tonight's sharp drop in the storage sector. On the US stock side, SanDisk, Micron, and Hynix all fell sharply by 7~9% intraday, with the community declaring a 'supercycle debunked'; but at the same time, TrendForce just disclosed: in Q2, the combined revenue of the world's top five NAND brands increased by 77% quarter-over-quarter, reaching $68.87 billion. The report also stated that over the past 12 months, US memory prices have surged by about 500% on average. Prices and stock prices are conflicting—the stock price fell first, reflecting the expectation that price increases have peaked, not that demand has collapsed now. This divergence is the most worth noting: what is falling is valuation, not shipments. Data won't play along with you, and for $MU and similar stocks, what to watch next is the supply-demand inflection point, not tonight's bearish candle.Stripe acquired OpenRouter at a $7 billion valuation, buying out the AI frontend traffic distribution rights. The core conflict lies in the centralized interface's secondary allocation of traffic, which will directly cause valuation compression and liquidity reshaping for decentralized computing power networks that rely on routing distribution.
The acquisition locks in a 50 to 140 times price-to-sales premium for the value captured by frontend routing. OpenRouter handles 25 trillion tokens of traffic weekly, directly controlling up to 25% of the daily block production traffic output of decentralized networks like Chutes. Decentralized computing power protocol chains emit tens of thousands of dollars worth of tokens daily on-chain, with a real external payment conversion rate below 30%, heavily relying on external neutral portals to feed business flow.
The primary driver of current market pricing is the change in ownership of traffic allocation rights at the interface layer. The second driver is the contraction of risk appetite in decentralized computing power networks due to quality and availability defects after traffic monopolization. The third driver is the lack of real token pricing logic in micro-settlements of payment protocols.
First scenario: If independent neutral routing protocols successfully overcome node hardware verification and high-availability protection, and endpoint applications like Dippy, which has 8.6 million users, directly complete infrastructure-level migration, decentralized computing power will break free from centralized portal tolls. To trigger this scenario, one must observe the decentralized routing's uptime without downtime and the real call billing rate; a failure signal is a node hardware downgrade rate exceeding 30%.
Second scenario: If Stripe adjusts distribution rules post-acquisition to prioritize its own ecosystem or increase transaction fees, the marginal cost for decentralized networks to obtain real traffic will sharply rise. To trigger this scenario, one must observe a decline in traffic quotas for networks like Chutes on OpenRouter; a failure signal is that the scale of crypto token subsidies cannot cover the real traffic shortfall, causing large-scale exits of computing power nodes.
The failure condition for this projection is if decentralized AI networks solve large-scale real-time output quality auditing through cryptographic schemes in a short time, completely freeing themselves from trust dependence on centralized authentication zones and fallback routing.
In the next 7 days, key observations should focus on whether the daily real business settlement proportion on-chain for decentralized AI projects breaks the 20% critical threshold, and whether the actual traffic allocation share of decentralized computing power nodes in centralized routing interfaces shows abnormal attenuation.
#高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 #Anthropic信贷拟超百亿美元 #英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂#XiaomiQ2Earnings Xiaomi’s second-quarter results show its business becoming less dependent on smartphones. Electric-vehicle deliveries continued growing, strengthening the argument that autos can become a meaningful second engine. Smartphones, however, faced higher component costs and intense competition, placing pressure on margins even as Xiaomi continued promoting premium models and expanding its connected-device ecosystem.
The important question is whether EV growth can offset weakness in Xiaomi’s established businesses without consuming too much capital. Vehicle deliveries alone are not enough; investors should track average selling prices, gross margin, manufacturing utilization and progress toward operating profitability. My view is that Xiaomi’s “Human × Car × Home” ecosystem remains strategically attractive, but the company is entering a more complex phase. EVs may improve long-term growth, while smartphones and AIoT must continue generating the cash needed to finance expansion.Currently in a tug-of-war between daily bullish reversal and 4-hour overbought conditions, short-term pressure is at the upper edge of the range, with the Jackson Hole event at the end of the month as a key turning point.
Technical analysis: Daily bullish reversal, 4-hour overbought
- Daily bullish reversal: Price stands above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating short-term bullish bias; however, resistance remains from the 100-day and 200-day moving averages and the descending trendline, so the structure is not fully reversed.
- 4-hour overbought: RSI and MACD indicators show concentrated momentum, suggesting a need for short-term pullback or consolidation.
- Recovery rhythm: Divergence repair at the 4-hour/daily level usually requires 4–12 candlestick periods, making time-for-space consolidation more likely.
- Key levels: Strong resistance around $67,000 above; support at $62,000–$64,000 below.
Macro and market sentiment: Risk appetite cooling
- US stocks weakening: On August 18, tech and chip sectors led the decline, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down nearly 5%, capital flowing into defensive sectors.
- VIX rising: VIX closed at 15.84, a new high since August 4, indicating easing complacency and rising volatility expectations.
- Precious metals retreat: Spot gold down nearly 1.9%, Shanghai silver T+D down 2.63%, safe-haven assets under pressure.
End-of-month turning window: Jackson Hole
- Timing and theme: August 27–29, themed "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," discussing stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and their impact on Fed policy.
- Preceding data: GDP revision and PCE inflation data released on August 26 may preemptively affect market pricing.
- Possible scenarios:
- Hawkish/strong regulation: Risk assets pressured, BTC may test $58,000 or even $55,000.
- Dovish/neutral: Risk appetite rebounds, BTC may rally to $68,000–$72,000.
- Systemic risk: If triggering stablecoin runs or "digital bank runs," liquidity crises and high-beta asset sell-offs may occur.
Strategy and risk control
- Strategy: Focus on buying dips and selling highs, avoid chasing rallies; monitor support effectiveness in the $62,000–$64,000 range on pullbacks.
- Risk control: Strict stop-loss, build positions in batches; remain cautious or lightly positioned before month-end, awaiting Jackson Hole guidance.
Short-term focus is on consolidation and range-bound movement; mid-term direction depends on Jackson Hole policy signals and data releases. Until then, control position size, strictly follow discipline, and wait for clearer breakout or pullback signals before making directional decisions. 会议解读： JPMorgan结束与Polymarket银行关系，CFTC安排8月20日讨论加密监管，预测市场和加密机构的法币通道仍受合规边界影响。议题和报道不等于正式规则，执行细节决定实际影响。 行业层面： Bitwise讨论代币化Solana质押ETF、Figure贷款市场达到43亿美元、Tether完成首份完整审计，传统金融与链上资产产品继续扩张，但NUSD暂停赎回暴露稳定币信用边界。 宏观层面： BTC下跌0.90%而黄金小幅上涨，收益率仍为4.15%和4.63%；Bullish业绩改善与公开矿企算力下降13.4%并存，行业更看重现金流与效率。 这组数据体现的是风险资产内部轮动，而非单一宏观方向，后续要看实际资金承接。 地缘层面： Trezor用户数据泄露提醒全球钱包用户面临定向钓鱼，跨境平台和基础设施必须同时满足数据保护、储备透明与赎回要求。 数据泄露与跨境赎回问题的处理速度，会直接影响用户对托管和平台的信任。 1｜特朗普预计参加白宫加密CEO会议 📈利好
CoinDesk报道，参与者预计特朗普将参加下周由加密、预测市场和AI公司CEO参与的白宫会议。若会议形成明确政策路线，The current trend is entirely within the script.
The strongest in the market remains the absolute mainstream: ETH, BTC.
And I still judge that ETH will outperform BTC; the large-cycle structure of the E/B exchange rate is already in place.
More importantly, this round of US stock market decline has not truly dragged ETH down; instead, ETH continues to rise.
When the large-scale K-line trend has already formed, short-term news, macro fluctuations, or even declines in other markets can only create disturbances and are unlikely to change the trend itself.
At the same time, a more important change is happening:
ETH rises, but the vast majority of altcoins do not rise, and some even continue to hit new lows.
This increasingly resembles BTC in 2023–2024.
When institutional funds begin to concentrate in BTC, BTC can rise independently while many altcoins continue to fall.
Now ETH is also heading down this path.
In the future, institutional funds will increasingly concentrate on BTC + ETH; the old script of "mainstream rises first, then rotates to altcoins" may no longer occur.
Altcoins without demand or institutional support may ultimately become like junk stocks:
Falling lower and lower until no one pays attention.
Therefore, I still do not recommend holding altcoins.
Of course, if you think ETH is rising too slowly and cannot make you rich overnight, you can continue chasing altcoins.
After all, the market always needs fuel.
By the end of August, ETH is still expected around 2000, with a slight close up.
September enters the real Q3 rally phase.
Q4 turns back to decline.
Currently, everything is still unfolding within the scenario.I am Brother Ci, and today's market signals are very clear. BTC is fluctuating around 64600, with a total market capitalization of 2.29 trillion. U.S. stocks closed broadly lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.33%, the S&P down 0.69%, and the Dow down slightly by 0.22%. The AI industry chain is collectively under pressure, with significant pullbacks in the semiconductor and storage sectors. SK Hynix fell about 9.2%, SanDisk about 9%, and the optical communication sector also plunged, with Coherent down over 12% and Lumentum nearly 10%. Several U.S. states are tightening electricity consumption regulations for data centers. Pennsylvania, Texas, New York, and others have started limiting power usage for AI data centers, making AI infrastructure a midterm election issue. Stricter regulations may affect the pace of AI capital expenditures, which is a direct reason for capital withdrawal. The AI hardware chain is undergoing profit-taking after a round of sentiment recovery, with storage and optical communication sectors, which had the largest prior gains, experiencing the biggest pullbacks. U.S. Treasury options are shifting to bet on rate cuts in 2027. The probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from about 68% two weeks ago to about half, and interest rate swaps imply only about 9 basis points of hikes at the September meeting. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius clearly stated that with retail sales declining, weakening employment, and slowing inflation all simultaneously weakening, the likelihood of a September rate hike is very low. The policy path is being repriced, easing tightening concerns, but the 30-year Treasury yield remains high near 5.3%, and long-term rates continue to pressure overvalued growth stocks. Geopolitical news is still developing. Trump has requested his negotiation team to pause contacts with Iran, and the White House war