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2100 Bitcoins to Buy a U.S. Publicly Listed Company
The Japanese company that once turned its fortunes around on the Tokyo Stock Exchange by buying Bitcoin is now setting its sights on the U.S. stock market. You might not have heard of this company’s name, but its performance on the Tokyo Exchange has become an alternative indicator for many Japanese retail investors watching Bitcoin.
Last night, Metaplanet announced it will use 2100 Bitcoins plus $2.5 million in cash, totaling approximately $134.6 million, to acquire about 95.7% of the Nasdaq-listed company Super League. Once the deal is completed, this gaming business will be renamed Superplanet and become Metaplanet’s Bitcoin treasury platform in the U.S.
Many still think of Metaplanet as an obscure hotel operator. Since 2022-2023, it has been buying Bitcoin following Strategy’s model, and now holds 43,000 Bitcoins, making it one of Asia’s most aggressive publicly listed Bitcoin holders. Its stock price has fluctuated with Bitcoin’s rhythm, earning it the label of the Japanese version of MicroStrategy.
What’s different this time is that it’s no longer just buying Bitcoin but using Bitcoin to acquire real companies. While 2100 Bitcoins sounds like a lot, it actually accounts for less than 5% of its total holdings of 43,000 Bitcoins. In other words, it neither hurts its core holdings nor fails to extend its reach into the U.S. capital market.
Super League itself is a company focused on interactive games and metaverse content, with relatively low visibility among retail investors. Choosing a gaming company also reveals Metaplanet’s intention to move toward Web3 and blockchain gaming. Being controlled by a Bitcoin-holding company and renamed Superplanet naturally makes people wonder if Metaplanet wants to upgrade Bitcoin’s narrative from mere holding to a shell that can accommodate more business.
Interestingly, this approach is becoming a trend. Pioneers like Strategy and Semler Scientific have long used this strategy to amplify their market value relative to Bitcoin’s price. Over the past year, more and more listed companies have transformed their balance sheets into Bitcoin vaults and repeatedly raised capital through market premiums to expand. Metaplanet’s move pushes this path further—not only hoarding Bitcoin but also using it to acquire others.
However, the flip side is that the value of such companies becomes increasingly tied to Bitcoin’s price. When Bitcoin rises, all narratives become attractive. But if Bitcoin stagnates or declines for a long time, the expansion chain supported by issuing shares and swapping coins will reveal problems. Just last week, more than one similar treasury company reported losses and pullbacks.
Whether Metaplanet’s move is a clever capital operation or another adventure hostage to Bitcoin’s price may only become clear in the next cycle. But one thing is clear: when it exchanges 2100 Bitcoins for the name of a U.S. public company, Bitcoin’s story is no longer just about the coin.Cuban, who has been bearish for seven years, suddenly changes tune to hype chips
Mark Cuban, who has almost offended the entire crypto community over the past seven years, has recently spoken up again. The Dallas Mavericks owner and veteran internet-era entrepreneur has now thrown out a statement that chips might be the next crypto asset. From a skeptic to a participant to a victim, Cuban has played almost every role.
It’s important to know that Cuban has never been a quiet bystander when it comes to crypto. Years ago, he compared crypto assets to bananas, mocking them as worthless. Later, he put real money into liquidity mining, only to fall into a crash. More glaringly, Voyager, which he personally endorsed, went bankrupt, causing losses for many retail investors who followed the trend. In 2023, his own wallet was hacked for about $870,000—proving even veterans aren’t immune. He also once made high-profile bets on DeFi and NFTs, but most fizzled out after the hype died down. Over seven years, Cuban’s reputation in crypto has basically been a series of failures.
So when someone who has turned crypto investing into a disaster suddenly labels chips as the next crypto asset, it feels very nuanced. What he might really be saying isn’t how miraculous chips are, but that this AI-driven computing power frenzy is replaying the script of crypto assets being frantically snapped up by capital. Companies like Nvidia aren’t just selling chips made from sand anymore; they’re packaged as strategic assets, coveted by Wall Street with hundreds of billions in financing. Capital’s temperament never changes—money flows where the story sounds best.
But here lies the problem. Cuban himself is the best cautionary tale. When he said crypto was like bananas, few believed his bearish stance. When he put real money in, he lost his own cash. Now that he’s comparing chips to crypto assets, it’s unclear whether he sees through the bubble’s essence or is about to bet wrong again. History’s interesting twist is that the contradictions of the same person often reveal more truth than any analysis report.
What’s more worth pondering is that when the most talkative influencers start calling computing power a new asset, are ordinary people’s funds quietly being steered into an even bigger and more complex story? When crypto assets were once hyped to the skies, it was these opinion leaders who led the charge, and the ones left holding the bag were usually retail investors who didn’t understand. Can we trust Cuban this time, or will this seventh-year prophecy become another chapter in his crash history? Crude oil has fallen, but diesel has hit a record high, with Bitcoin stuck in the middle feeling the worst
Crude oil is falling, yet diesel prices have reached historic levels. The crack spread between US diesel and crude oil has risen to $102.20 per barrel, the highest on record.
The term "crack spread" sounds technical but is actually easy to understand. It represents the profit margin a refinery earns by processing one barrel of crude oil into finished products. When raw material prices fall but finished product prices rise, the spread naturally reaches its limit. This isn’t because refineries suddenly got smarter; it’s because the market is genuinely short on diesel.
The supply-side problem is straightforward. Conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have simultaneously disrupted global energy supplies. Diesel, a middle distillate, already has thin inventories, and any transportation bottleneck tightens the supply. On the demand side, it’s the agricultural harvest season, with tractors, harvesters, and trucks all burning diesel. Though the demand in the fields seems small, it adds up to a substantial volume.
The trouble with expensive diesel isn’t just at the gas station; it’s in the supply chain behind it. Food needs to be transported, goods delivered, and heating required in winter. These costs ultimately push prices higher. So diesel hitting record highs is essentially an early warning signal for inflation.
What’s even more worth watching is crude oil itself. WTI has broken above the downtrend line since the April high, meaning the four-month downward trend might be ending here. If oil prices start rising from this point, the market’s recently cooled inflation expectations may need to be recalculated.
This logic changes when it reaches us. Rising energy prices combined with inflation risks, plus the pile of government debt issues in various countries, have pushed US and other developed economies’ bond yields higher. The higher the yields, the more expensive it becomes to hold non-yielding risk assets due to opportunity cost. Bitcoin trying to rise in this environment faces strong headwinds.
But at the same time, there’s an opposing force. The US dollar index fell to 99.29 on Monday, a two-and-a-half-month low, breaking below its previous uptrend line. A weaker dollar is usually Bitcoin’s old friend, historically benefiting Bitcoin in such times.
So the current situation is quite divided. Oil prices are rising, bond yields are rising, and the dollar is falling—three forces pulling Bitcoin in different directions, with none able to decisively move it. This explains why the market has been oscillating around the 60,000 range these past two days, unable to break through or fall sharply. It looks like no movement, but in reality, several macro forces are pushing against each other.
We’re used to attributing market moves to on-chain activity—who’s buying, who’s selling, which whale moved positions. But this round’s real drivers are a barrel of diesel, a trend line, and a government bond quote. These things are far from the trading screen but quietly change your holding costs.
Which of these three forces do you think will win out first?Nasdaq is about to extend trading hours to 23 hours straight, and on-chain stocks are stepping up to the challenge.
Your U.S. stock holdings are about to compete head-to-head with a new contender. Nasdaq, the giant of traditional trading, is preparing to extend its trading hours to 23 hours a day, almost nonstop. Before this, tokenized stocks on-chain have already been trading around the clock for some time, marking the first direct competition in trading hours between the two.
This might seem a bit distant from crypto, but it hits right where we care. Tokenized stocks mean moving U.S. stocks like Apple and Tesla onto the blockchain, settled with USDT, allowing 24/7 trading. Previously, their biggest selling point was that they kept trading after traditional markets closed. Now that Nasdaq is matching this advantage, it effectively removes that differentiating card.
But the contrast is this: equalizing trading hours doesn’t mean everything else is equal. On-chain stocks excel in fast settlement, low barriers to entry, and the ability to combine with DeFi for collateralized loans. Traditional exchanges excel in compliance, deep liquidity, and institutional recognition. One is like a street-smart expert, the other a suited boxing champion. For users, if you want to place orders at midnight, go on-chain; if you want peace of mind with custody, go to Nasdaq’s venue.
For us crypto traders, the indirect impact is even more tangible. If on-chain stocks gain mainstream acceptance, stablecoins will find broader use cases. USDT and USDC won’t just be intermediaries for crypto trading but will become a layer of trading infrastructure. More capital flowing in and settling is a slow-boiling positive for overall crypto liquidity.
Conversely, if Nasdaq, this old whale, seriously enters the fray, the protocols behind tokenized stocks on-chain will face huge pressure. They can’t compete on compliance and liquidity. In the end, the winner might not be the loudest player right now.
In the short term, don’t see this as a reason for a price surge; it’s a structural change, not a price one. But remember, whichever side nails compliance and liquidity first will define the next generation of trading venues. This clash is just beginning.
Don’t be fooled by the current battle over trading hours; the real fight ahead is who can truly integrate traditional and on-chain assets. Whoever achieves this first will become the traffic gateway for the next decade.
Do you trust the on-chain approach that lets you trade anytime, or the traditional exchange’s compliance guarantee? If you suddenly want to rebalance your portfolio at midnight, would you open your wallet or wait for the market to open? Harvard Stops Reducing Bitcoin ETF Holdings; University Funds Are Watching Closely
The institutional holdings you bought have recently quietly changed hands. A detail in Harvard University's endowment fund's latest quarterly report was overlooked by many: they basically stopped selling their Bitcoin spot ETF in Q2, maintaining holdings around $100 million, effectively pausing the sell-off from previous months. An established university fund managing hundreds of billions of dollars shifting from selling to holding is more worth pondering than buying.
University endowment funds have always been the most stable buyers in the market. Their money belongs to students, and their investment cycles span decades, so every crypto exposure entry or exit is backed by repeated deliberations from their investment committees. Harvard's previous reduction was because they took profits from the rally at the end of last year to early this year; now that they've stopped selling, it indicates they believe the current price is at a level where they are less inclined to sell.
For us swing traders, this signal shouldn't be treated as a charge, but it's worth noting. ETF holdings shifting from outflows to stable often appear during major bottoming phases, where institutions don't buy the dip but stop cutting positions. Compared to aggressive strategies like treasury companies issuing bonds while buying crypto, university funds are much more conservative; they act more like thermometers than engines.
Taking a quick look at other university funds, Yale, Stanford, and other old money have also quietly allocated some crypto in recent years, but their positions remain very low, more like testing the waters. Like Harvard, they don't buy to show off but to keep an option in their portfolio to hedge against inflation and dollar credit risk. This kind of money is naturally slow and won't increase positions just because of a tweet.
The contrast is that retail investors are still asking where the bottom is, while institutions are no longer in a hurry to exit. The market's biggest fear isn't a drop but no one to catch the fall. When even the most cautious money chooses to lie low rather than cut losses, it means the panic selling of chips is nearly cleared. Of course, on the flip side, since they haven't started buying either, consensus hasn't yet reached the point to drive prices up.
So don't overestimate the weight of this $100 million, but also don't underestimate the direction it represents. When the most conservative money stops leaving, the short-side ammunition in the market indeed decreases.
Do you think this pause in selling by university funds signals a bottom or just a breather? If even they have stopped selling, can your positions still hold out?A wallet that once received coins from the Ethena treasury is quietly offloading
One hour ago, Onchain Lens detected a wallet highly related to the Ethena team transferring 17 million ENA to FalconX, worth approximately $14.09 million at the time. FalconX is a well-established institution in the space specializing in large OTC trades. When such a large amount of coins is transferred there, it is likely to find buyers gradually rather than dumping directly on the secondary market.
What is most intriguing is the origin of this wallet. It is not a retail investor from the secondary market but received ENA last year from Ethena’s own Gnosis Safe multi-signature treasury. In other words, the source of these tokens is directly linked to the project team. An address holding team treasury coins is now quietly moving them off-chain, and the motive is not hard to guess.
Ethena has always been one of the most controversial projects in the space. It gained popularity through USDe, an interest-bearing stablecoin, by hedging ETH staking yields with perpetual contract funding rates, offering users seemingly stable high returns. At its peak, TVL surged, and ENA’s market cap rose from zero cost at airdrop to tens of billions. However, when the market cools and funding rates turn negative, there have been ongoing concerns about whether this mechanism might backfire.
This transfer of 17 million ENA is not an enormous amount but sends a strong signal. Team-related addresses moving large amounts of coins are always the most sensitive market signals. While retail investors are still debating whether USDe yields can continue, the token holding structure may already be quietly changing.
The timing is even more subtle. Recently, Ethena has been pushing new business and on-chain developments, maintaining its narrative, but the token price has already pulled back significantly from its highs, and the cost basis of those airdropped tokens is close to zero. At this moment, the related wallet chooses to move coins off-chain—whether this is purely a liquidity arrangement or someone is reducing their position early, outsiders cannot say for sure.
It is worth mentioning the significance of OTC channels like FalconX for large holders. Compared to directly placing sell orders that can instantly crush prices and trigger liquidation cascades, OTC allows large holders to sell coins in bulk to institutions with much less market impact. However, because of this, ordinary holders often find out too late; by the time on-chain data is broadcast by monitoring accounts, the move has already been completed.
But one thing is clear: when wallets related to the project team start moving coins out, it’s worth taking a closer look at your own position. After all, in the crypto world, on-chain data doesn’t lie, and actions are often more honest than announcements. What do you think—will these 17 million ENA be slowly sold off via OTC, or will they quietly be transferred back after a while? South Korean Regional Banks Replace SWIFT with Ripple
The experience of waiting several days and paying high fees for cross-border remittances might soon be rewritten by a blockchain. Jeonbuk Bank in South Korea just announced it has become the first regional bank in the country to deploy Ripple Payments, offering corporate clients near real-time, 24/7 cross-border settlement, directly replacing SWIFT transfers that often take several days. Although Jeonbuk Bank is just a regional bank, this move is quite strategic, indicating that on-chain payments are no longer just a toy for large institutions.
Ripple has been very active in South Korea this year, previously partnering with Kyobo Life Insurance and Kbank on custody, wallets, and payments. Jeonbuk is the third and the first bank-level payment cooperation to be implemented. For small foreign trade businesses, having funds arrive within minutes instead of being stuck in clearing networks significantly reduces cash flow pressure. This is a prime example of using stablecoins and blockchain to solve real payment pain points, not just hype.
The contrast is that many still think on-chain settlement is only for speculators, but traditional banks are quietly integrating it as infrastructure. The slow and expensive old SWIFT system is losing its edge against near real-time on-chain channels. The fact that these Korean financial institutions are rushing to adopt Ripple shows that compliant on-chain payments can handle real business, and the key is that enterprises are willing to use it—technology alone is worthless without users.
In the short term, such cooperation will first expand in small cross-border corporate scenarios, with limited impact on coin prices, so don’t expect it to directly pump prices. In the long term, Ripple’s strategy of using banks as entry points to weave a dense payment network lays the foundation for RWA and stablecoin cross-border circulation. For us, this is more worth watching than simply betting on which coin will rise, because it operates at the real money settlement layer.
The core of Ripple’s approach is using XRP as a bridge asset for on-demand liquidity, eliminating the multiple intermediary steps of traditional correspondent banks, compressing settlement from days to seconds, and significantly lowering fees. South Korea became a testing ground because of its high local crypto acceptance and many small and medium foreign trade enterprises with real pain points and willingness to try new solutions. If Jeonbuk’s move succeeds, more banks will follow, and on-chain payments will become a normal feature in bank accounts rather than just a concept.
How many more years do you think it will take for traditional banks to fully embrace on-chain payments and for it to become part of our everyday transfers? The stablecoin regulations that have been called for half a year are starting to take effect
Those USDT and USDC in your pocket will really be put on a leash from now on. The U.S. Treasury Department is now officially soliciting public comments on the implementation rules of the GENIUS Act for stablecoins. The stablecoin regulatory framework that has been called for over half a year is finally moving from paper to reality. Although it’s just a solicitation of opinions, this basically pushes the core processes of issuance, reserves, and redemption into clear rules.
This matter carries more weight than it appears. The GENIUS Act is the top-level legislation for USD stablecoins. When it was passed before, the market mostly saw it as a positive signal, thinking that compliance would encourage institutions to enter. Now that the implementation rules are out, this is the real moment that decides how things will be played. How reserve assets are custodied, how quickly redemptions are settled, and who bears the risk if something goes wrong—these details directly determine whether stablecoins remain as they are now and whether small players can afford to participate.
The contrast is right here. On one side, companies like Circle are eager to have clear rules soon to expand their scale; on the other side, small players might be directly discouraged by compliance costs. Previously, the EURC euro stablecoin breaking 400 million in circulation was a signal. Once the USD rules are finalized, the gap between compliant stablecoins and wildcat versions will widen. The coins we hold and the reliability of their issuers will have hard standards to check against, no longer relying on reputation and guesswork.
In the short term, there is still quite some time from the solicitation of opinions to formal enforcement, so the market won’t change overnight; arbitrage and gray-area practices can still persist for a while. In the long term, stablecoins moving from the gray zone into regulatory cages is the prerequisite for RWA and on-chain payments to truly scale. For traders doing swing trades, this line affects the underlying liquidity of crypto dollars as a whole, which is more important to watch than daily price fluctuations.
The most important points to watch in the rules are actually very specific. Whether issuers need licenses, whether reserves are one-to-one, whether one-to-one redemption can be done anytime, and whether there is a clear backstop party if something goes wrong—these are the hard pillars that determine stablecoin credibility. Some smaller stablecoins previously survived by offering high interest to attract deposits and having opaque reserves; once the rules are implemented, these practices will most likely be eliminated. For us, when choosing stablecoins in the future, checking if they have a compliant identity is much more reliable than looking at the interest rate they offer.
Looking back, those small stablecoins that relied on high interest to attract deposits and had unclear reserves will mostly fail this round. The market will vote with its feet, pushing funds toward the compliant major players. For us holders, this is a good thing—at least we won’t have to lose sleep over the opaque reserves behind them. Although the rules are slow to land, the direction is already very clear: crypto dollars will sooner or later wear a transparent coat.
Do you usually trust USDT or USDC more? Will these rules make you switch sides this time? Coin hoarding companies lost tens of billions of dollars in three months
Those coin-hoarding public companies that loudly proclaim long-termism are facing a tough quarter on the books. The latest analysis shows that a group of DAT companies, also known as digital asset treasuries, have suffered a combined unrealized loss of nearly $10 billion in three months. Previously, they drove their stock prices up by hoarding BTC and ETH, but now that the tide has receded, many are found to be swimming naked.
The contrast here is especially painful. During last year's bull market narrative peak, these companies were issuing shares to raise funds while buying aggressively, telling compelling stories that pushed their market caps soaring. The most typical example is Strategy, which kept issuing preferred shares and convertible bonds to buy coins, propping up its holdings to over 800,000 BTC, but this quarter its stock price also retreated along with the coin prices. Then there’s Bitmine, heavily invested in ETH, which surged aggressively early on but fell even harder during the correction.
What’s more embarrassing is their business model. On the surface, they earn interest from holding coins, do staking, and manage treasuries, but in reality, most of their profits depend on coin price appreciation; when prices fall, none of their logic holds. Now they are cutting costs and slowing down coin purchases; some even repurchase their own preferred shares to stabilize stock prices, like Strategy, which recently spent over $100 million to buy back STRC. The promised long-term holding has turned into just trying to survive.
For ordinary people like us, this cooling-off is actually a wake-up call. Many stocks driven up by treasury stories have no real cash flow backing them; their stock prices and reserves are both taking hits, and retail investors who chased highs are buried. In the short term, these kinds of assets will continue to fluctuate wildly with coin prices, making shortcuts risky. In the long term, only those who survive this round of clearing and truly turn their treasuries into legitimate businesses will remain.
Ultimately, the lifeline for these companies is their financing ability. In a bull market, they can keep issuing shares at market price—that ATM-style play—using new money to buy coins to support reserves and stock prices, creating a positive cycle. But once the stock price falls below net asset premium or even at a discount, that door closes; no one wants to buy new shares, and selling coins crashes the market, leaving them stuck. Many DAT companies’ price-to-book ratios have dropped from several times to around one, turning yesterday’s money printers into money-eating beasts.
This round of clearing has also educated the market. Previously, just slapping a coin-hoarding label could skyrocket valuations; now investors are scrutinizing cash flow and reserve quality. For retail investors, don’t get hyped just by treasury narratives; if you really want to participate, first ask how the company makes money, not just rely on coin price increases. The harder the tide recedes, the more naked swimmers are exposed.
Have you ever been attracted by the story of any coin-hoarding company? Looking back now, did you profit or lose?1. Fundamentals: The surge in U.S. Treasury yields is the core variable The trigger for this round of adjustment comes from the bond market. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury note briefly rose near its highest level since 2007; The 10-year Treasury yield is also near its highest level since early 2025. The rapid rise in yields has directly changed how the market rates high-valuation tech stocks. The logic behind this is clear: in other words, when "borrowing money becomes expensive," assets that rely on discounted future cash flows to support valuations bear the brunt. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are adding fuel to the fire: the U.S. and Iran remain deadlocked over solutions; The situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to attract attention; Oil prices rose for the third consecutive trading day. The market is concerned that rising energy prices will further drive up inflation, thereby limiting the room for future rate cuts by major central banks. This is like adding another stone to the top of the overvalued tech assets. Summary: In the short term, the pressure on high-valuation assets has not yet been fully released, and volatility is highly likely to continue. 2. Technical Aspects: Range Expands, Mostly Wait-and-See ETH: Expanding Volatility Waiting for a Major Breakout ETH $ETH After a slight breakout in a key range in the short term, the range of volatility begins to expand, making the short-term trend more chaotic. Current strategy: Mainly observe and wait, avoid chasing gains or selling losses; Key focus: wait for a breakout within the main range before making directional decisions. During phases lacking clear direction, controlling positions and reducing ineffective trades is often the best strategy. SanDisk $SNDK: Rebound after breakout, short selling is relatively ideal. Yesterday it declinedBitcoin's volatility could reach 30% in the next two months
Is your account still in the green this week? Bitcoin has been hovering around 60,000 for nearly two months, with the market so quiet it’s almost boring. But Fundstrat’s analysts just poured cold water on that. They believe this period of low volatility is about to end, and in the next 60 days, Bitcoin’s volatility could surge to 30%. In other words, that narrow, sleepy consolidation might be building up to a big move.
This kind of stalemate isn’t new. Historically, every time Bitcoin’s volatility was suppressed to the extreme, it was followed by a sudden, unexpected big move. Currently, the number of active contracts on exchanges looks decent, but the real buy and sell orders are as thin as paper—just a little selling pressure can push the price far away. In our circle, we often say "long sideways means change," and this time it’s been sideways for a full two months, but no one dares to confidently call the direction of the change.
What’s even more worth pondering is the divergence in capital flows. On the US stock side, institutional positions have piled up to nearly a five-year high. According to a Bank of America survey, 56% of fund managers are overweight stocks, and short positions are almost nowhere to be seen. But on Bitcoin’s side, liquidity is getting thinner and thinner, and on-chain transfer speeds remain at a seven-year low. Both sides are betting on a direction, but Bitcoin’s own buying support is weakening. This kind of divergence is the most dangerous; if something goes wrong, long positions stepping on each other can be even more destructive than shorts crashing the market.
Turning back to the price structure. Previously, 10x Research called 63,000 the dividing line between bottom and crash, and some analysts see 57,000 as the key liquidation level for leveraged longs. Between these two levels is exactly where the thin order book is most vulnerable. Now the price is stuck in the middle, neither up nor down. If it breaks below 57,000, a chain liquidation scenario is not unheard of.
For those of us trading swings, don’t be lulled by the sideways action in the short term. Below 60,000 is a liquidation-heavy zone, and when the thin order book is pierced, the stampede can come faster than expected. In the long run, the release after low volatility is often an opportunity to redefine direction, not a reason to panic. Keep some bullets in your position and wait for the volatility to really arrive, then see who’s caught naked.
Looking back at history, this kind of low volatility has never been the end. Before the 2024 US election, Bitcoin consolidated around 60,000 for half a year, then surged to 90,000. In 2021, it also ground at a high level for a long time before choosing a direction. This time it’s been sideways for two months, not as long yet, but the structure is similar—insufficient turnover and unwashed floating supply. The real signal to watch isn’t price stagnation, but when volume suddenly spikes—that’s often the precursor to a breakout.
Do you think this 30% volatility will break upward or crash downward? Can your current position hold through it? #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #BTC‑ETF下注资产稀缺，ETH‑ETF押注整套链上经济叙事🚨
BTC and ETH ETFs are equally important, but their underlying buying logic is completely different and cannot be simply compared by total capital.
BTC‑ETF buys into asset scarcity; ETH‑ETF bets on the entire on-chain economic narrative. One logic is simple and clear, with a low institutional acceptance threshold; the other has many variables, and once the logic is realized, the potential is much greater.
The institutional logic of BTC‑ETF is very straightforward.
Institutions allocate BTC not necessarily to speculate on short-term spikes, but more to classify it as an alternative asset, digital gold, a non-sovereign reserve, used to hedge inflation and fiscal debt risks.
BTC itself does not generate interest income nor requires yield to support valuation; it mainly relies on total supply rules and global liquidity. This narrative is simple and fits well within traditional financial allocation frameworks.
The logic of ETH‑ETF is much more complex.
Institutions buying ETH are not just speculating on price fluctuations; essentially, they are indirectly betting on stablecoins, DeFi, RWA tokenization of real assets, staking yields, L2 scaling networks, and the development prospects of the entire smart contract ecosystem.
If Ethereum truly grows into on-chain financial infrastructure, ETH will have multiple sources of value; conversely, if on-chain activity remains low, regulatory uncertainty persists, and L2 networks continue to divert value from the mainnet, institutions will be cautious about ETH‑ETF allocations.
Therefore, ETF capital flows should be interpreted separately for the two.
Outflows from BTC‑ETF often reflect institutions adjusting macro risk positions; as long as the price holds around 64000, it indicates market support remains.
Long-term lack of sustained net inflows into ETH‑ETF means institutions are not yet willing to pay for the on-chain economic narrative. ETH needs active capital recognition and cannot rely solely on BTC’s market momentum.
Currently, ETH hovers around the 1900 mark; the key point is not whether ETF products launch, but whether they can attract sustained institutional buying.
If staking yields can be compliantly included in ETFs in the future, ETH will no longer be just a pure price exposure but will move toward a yield-bearing asset, though it will also face more complex regulatory constraints.
BTC‑ETF completes BTC’s assetization process, which is already established;
ETH‑ETF pursues ETH’s financialization, which still requires substantial real-world validation.
In institutional portfolios, BTC tends to be a reserve asset, ETH leans toward financial infrastructure investment, and their entry thresholds differ vastly.
When analyzing ETFs, don’t just focus on daily inflow and outflow data.
More important to consider: Are BTC inflows long-term allocation funds? Do ETH inflows indicate institutions beginning to accept on-chain yield logic?
Sustained BTC allocation buying will strengthen the market bottom; stable ETH inflows will lead to a value reassessment of on-chain finance.
ETFs are not a bull market guarantee; they are more like Wall Street’s voting machine.
BTC has already secured relatively clear votes; ETH is still competing for a more complex and flexible share of votes.
$BTC $ETH🔥 BTC rises while US stocks fall, funds are playing a "split game"
Yesterday showed clear cross-market divergence:
📈 BTC +1.43% to 64207 (rushed ahead before the minutes)
📉 S&P 500 -0.63%, Nasdaq -1.61%
📉 Crypto concept stocks: Coinbase -2.74%, Robinhood -4.69%
📉 Storage chip stocks all sharply down
What's strange?
• BTC rises but crypto stocks fall → funds are not optimistic about the crypto narrative itself
• US 10-year Treasury yield hits a new high of 4.7% → risk asset valuations under pressure
• Fear & Greed Index at 56, sentiment hasn't caught up with price
My interpretation:
This BTC rebound is more of a "position adjustment before the minutes," not a clean risk appetite breakout.
A real breakout depends on: BTC holding above 65600 after the minutes release + continued ETF inflows.
#BTC #USStocks #Divergence #比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降：独立还是假象 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Why is ETH always held back by unlocking positions during the same rebound🚨
During a market recovery, BTC often has the luxury to steadily expand upward, while ETH frequently faces resistance and falls back after a slight surge. Many simply attribute this to weak buying pressure, but the fundamental reason lies in the completely different structures of locked-in positions between the two.
$BTC has gone through multiple bull and bear cycles, with market participants spanning over a decade, resulting in a very dispersed distribution of holding costs. From early low-price old holdings to institutional positions entered at bull market highs, holdings exist across all price ranges. During rebounds, the pressure from unlocking positions is released gradually and not concentrated at any single price point, giving bulls ample time to slowly absorb the sell-off.
$ETH is entirely different.
A large influx of funds occurred in the latter half of the previous bull market, with many DeFi participants and staking users building positions concentrated within a narrow price range, creating a large, densely packed cluster of locked-in positions.
Whenever the rebound approaches this cost zone, a large number of holders waiting to break even and exit will flee en masse.
It’s not that the bulls lack offensive power, but every small upward move must absorb a tidal wave of unlocking and realization selling pressure.
This often results in the market situation where overall sentiment is positive, BTC steadily rises, but ETH repeatedly gets pushed down whenever it hits the resistance zone.
When trading ETH swings, one cannot only consider overall market sentiment and macro environment; it is crucial to pay attention to the natural resistance caused by the dense cluster of locked-in positions above. Even in generally optimistic markets, these concentrated unlocking zones remain tough hurdles to break through easily.
$BTC $ETHThe most obvious change in Bridgewater's latest Q2 13F report is not betting on a single new stock, but rather a readjustment of the way risk exposure is expressed. Broad-based index ETFs continued to be heavily weighted, while AI hardware and large tech stocks were generally downgraded, while positions related to resources and electricity were supplemented. Overall, it feels more like a rebalancing at the portfolio level, rather than simply turning to bearish technology. Let's first look at the overall portfolio: As of June 30, 2026, Bridgewater's disclosed long US stock portfolio was about $24.38 billion, an increase of about 8.8% from the previous quarter, with holdings rising from 993 to 997. The top five single securities together account for about 32.7%, significantly lower than high-concentration institutions like Berkshire Hathaway and Pershing Place. This means that Bridgewater 13F's reading approach should not just focus on "what was bought," but should also consider which directions it has raised or lowered its risk exposure through ETFs and a basket of industry stocks. Broad-based ETFs remain the most important holdings in the portfolio. S&P 500 ETF $SPY increased holdings by 21.89% this quarter, holding 5.3203 million units at the end of the period, accounting for 16.30% of the portfolio, remaining Bridgewater's largest single holding position. iShares core S&P 500 ETF also increased holdings by 12.06%, while Vanguard S&P 500 ETF increased by 188.97%. The three S&P 500 ETFs together account for nearly 27% of the portfolio, indicating that Bridgewater has not withdrawn from the U.S. equity market. Instead, while reducing some individual stock exposures, it continues to retain market bets through broad-based instrumentsYesterday, SanDisk fell 9%, Micron nearly 7%, Western Digital dropped 7%, and the SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 5.4%, wiping out over $680 billion in market value. Strangely, the demand for AI did not suddenly disappear within 24 hours. What really happened was when the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury surged to its highest level since 2007. When the discount rate starts to rise, the first stocks to cut are often the ones that have risen the most, are the most valued, and most reliant on future cash flow—which is why SanDisk, Micron, and Western Digital—the most aggressive gainers in the AI infrastructure sector recently—have ironically become the hardest hit areas for yesterday's sell-off. This sell-off was ultimately a pure profit-taking: before entering the market, SanDisk had already risen 653% this year, Micron 255%, and there was no bad news from the memory industry itself driving this decline. This is actually a reverse-of-the-loop verification of the story we wrote along the way a few days ago. The logic from a few days ago was that AI capital expenditures drove memory demand to boost SanDisk; Yesterday's logic was that long-term bond yields soared, causing these AI high-valuation stocks to collectively sell. The fundamentals did not collapse overnight—SanDisk just announced a very strong long-term business model a few days ago, with customer contract volumes approaching $94 billion, indicating ongoing long-term market demand for AI storage. So what really happened yesterday wasn't the disappearance of AI demandThe window for explosive upside gains on $SNDK has officially closed. Heavily weighed down by constant sell-side pressure, token emissions continue to drown secondary market bids before momentum can build.
In stark contrast to $BICO,$BEAT, $ALLO,$KAITO, and $APR—which all absorbed rotational liquidity to print sharp turnaround setups—$SNDK lacks the organic accumulation needed to build a sustainable base. Betting on a bottom here stays firmly in speculative territory.
$SNDK #CryptoRevenueVsBTCJune
June 3rd at 20:30 is the labor data
June 10th is the CPI data
June 16th at 2 AM is the FOMC meeting.
Review summary: The data on June 3rd was bearish, and the data on June 10th was also bearish. Whether the FOMC is bearish or bullish, I do not know yet, but the short-selling force in the bear market is really too strong. Additionally, the Three Arrows Capital crash on June 17th and 18th also caused a further rapid decline. The fundamental method to prevent bankruptcy is to find short signals and short in a bear market, rather than bottom fishing. I have not seen this scenario in the coming years, nor found similar trends, but the bearish news on June 10th is solid. Following the trend to short naturally yields profits!
The movement on June 19th is similar to the movement on May 12th. In the new 2026 bear market, this scenario repeatedly appears (November 21st, February 6th, and June 5th).
Two points worth considering:
1. In a bear market with a short direction, before the strategic force changes direction, operations that go against the trading principle direction, regardless of correctness, can be abandoned.
2. In front of the core concept of a bear market with a short direction, without the appearance of an xab-B1 bullish signal, all bottom fishing is playing with fire. The market seems particularly tolerant of the term "bottom fishing"; a mere 9% drop on Tuesday has some eager to jump in.
But stay clear-headed: SNDK closed at $1625, evaporating 9% in a single day. Meanwhile, the storage sector faced a collective bloodbath—Seagate, SK Hynix ADR fell over 9%, Western Digital and Micron also plunged 7% respectively.
The direct cause is clear and brutal: the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.33%, the highest since 2007. With the global interest rate baseline rising, tech stock valuations naturally came under pressure, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged nearly 5% in response. Essentially, this is a risk premium revaluation of AI hardware assets.
Wall Street's divergence is intriguing: JPMorgan Chase and Bernstein are bullish, but Wedbush's warning hits the mark—"the cyclicality of storage has never disappeared."
Reviewing the sector's trend: it fell from a high of 2354 to 998, a 57% drop; then technically rebounded to 1827, and now has retreated again to around 1600. A signal not to be ignored is that the highs are falling and the lows are falling—this is a standard descending channel, not a consolidation platform.
1560 is the key defensive line. If it is effectively broken, the 1500 round number will be meaningless.
I hold two short positions; the logic remains unchanged, and my holdings are intact.
The directional judgment has been made; now it’s just waiting for confirmation. If the price breaks below 1500, I will decisively increase my position. At that time, I might temporarily leave this cramped rental to witness this downward cycle unfold firsthand.
$SNDK
$BTC
$OKB #FinancialReportObserver: Xiaomi's Q2 Financial Report Released, Is the Auto Segment Saving the Day or Are Phones Holding It Back?
I'm Brother Ci, Xiaomi's Q2 financial report is out, and the auto and phone segments are heading in completely different directions.
First, the auto segment. In Q2, the SU7 series delivered 104,200 vehicles, breaking 100,000 units in a single quarter, with a gross margin of 20.1%. Losses narrowed from 3.1 billion in Q1 to 2.06 billion. Economies of scale are materializing, getting closer to breakeven. The full-year delivery target remains 300,000 to 350,000 vehicles. The auto business is moving from a cash-burning phase into a growth phase.
Now, the phone segment. In Q1, shipments were 33.8 million units, down 19% year-over-year, while ASP rose 8.2% year-over-year to ¥1310, a record high. Volume is falling, prices are rising, and premiumization is taking effect. However, storage costs remained high in Q2, so phone gross margins are under short-term pressure. High-end models now account for over 23% of the mainland China market, optimizing the product mix, but cost pressures persist.
On the AIoT side, the 618 shopping festival drove IoT revenue up 28% quarter-over-quarter to ¥31.6 billion. Major appliances and smart home products are clearly recovering, and this segment is rebounding. IoT gross margin is close to 20%, higher than phones, more stable than autos, making it the most stable foundation among the three segments.
Autos are running, phones are struggling, AIoT is steady. All three segments are pushing forward simultaneously; the direction remains unchanged, but the pace is shifting.
Impact on BTC: BTC, as the underlying asset of the computing power economy, is linked to the prosperity of tech hardware. $BTC $ETH $SNDK April 2022
April 1st was the labor data release date. At that time, the status was a continuous rise from March 15th until 8 PM on March 31st. Should we wait until after 8 PM to take profits and hedge until the data release is complete?
April 12th at 8:30 PM is the CPI release time.
Review summary: On March 31st at 8 PM, the market fell as expected for hedging. On the 5th, BTC showed a bearish signal. According to one principle: bear market + bearish signal means shorting is necessary. The price kept falling until 4 AM on the 12th, with a total drop of about 18%. At the time of the CPI release, the price was low. Going long at this low point, waiting for the strategic force of the CPI to determine a new direction. The result was a major negative CPI, but since it was at a relatively low level, it was difficult to short directly here; only long positions could take profits, stay flat, and wait for an opportunity to short.
In a bear market + bearish direction, when encountering an upward trajectory, one should first close short positions, stay flat and observe, and wait for a new bearish signal or new strategic force before making a decision. This refers to the status at 8 PM on April 24th. Do not overestimate the short-term value of this draft; it is important to distinguish that the exemption rules govern "new project issuance" and do not resolve the historical classification disputes of existing tokens, so the scope of benefits is very limited.
From the perspective of coin transmission:
1. Almost no incremental benefit for BTC: BTC has long been widely regarded by the market as a commodity asset and is not covered under this investment contract exemption framework. Its market trend is still dominated by ETF funds and U.S. Treasury yields, making it difficult for this policy to trigger an independent rally.
$BTC
2. The benefit logic for ETH is lagging: The safe harbor is intended for future new projects and cannot immediately resolve the historical debate over whether ETH itself is a security. Even if new projects can issue tokens compliantly, fundraising, launch, and generating on-chain revenue are long processes, making it difficult to quickly translate into short-term ETH price gains.
$ETH
3. Higher risk for small ecosystem tokens: These assets are most susceptible to short-term pump-and-dump driven by funds leveraging "regulatory tailwinds," but the draft’s quota, entry conditions, and information disclosure obligations may be tightened at any time during the public consultation phase; combined with the high uncertainty of the CLARITY Act’s congressional vote, once expectations cool down, the pullback could be much greater than the broader market.
Back to trading: Policy is a medium- to long-term slow variable and is insufficient to offset the valuation pressure caused by high long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Do not prematurely bet on ecosystem tokens; short-term capital preference will still favor the more certain BTC. It is safer to evaluate ecosystem opportunities after the final rules are released and clear precedents emerge. Beware of price crashes following expectation-driven speculation.
#SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案，CLARITY法案9月审议 $ETH $ETH 24h increase is more than double that of $BTC again. The pattern of $ETH outperforming $BTC on the charts for consecutive days continues. I judge that if the SEC draft passes, the impact on $ETH may be greater than on $BTC, because the SEC has mainly used securities definitions to suppress altcoins and DeFi tokens in the past. $ETH, as one of the first beneficiaries of the smart contract platform, will directly benefit in valuation narrative under the new framework where tokens are not presumed securities. #英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂 Kalshi has applied to the CFTC to track the US500 perpetual futures of the MerQube US large-cap stock index. The core conflict lies in the attempt to introduce a perpetual mechanism into compliant derivatives, reshaping traditional risk preferences and position transmission.
From the fact of the application to access the market, the prediction market's submitted US500 contract covers 500 major US-listed companies, bringing the perpetual settlement structure of the crypto market into the traditional stock index derivatives field.
In terms of driving factors, regulatory approval progress ranks first, followed by traditional capital's risk preference pricing for continuous liquidity, ultimately reflected in cross-market arbitrage capital's position adjustments.
If the CFTC successfully advances the compliant release of the perpetual contract linked to the index of 500 large companies, it will directly stimulate high-frequency and institutional funds to increase risk preference exposure during cross-market sentiment surges. The trigger condition for this scenario is the regulatory framework's recognition of the non-expiry date clearing mechanism. The variable to watch is the official review opinion release point, and the failure signal is a prolonged delay in the approval process.
If regulators raise concerns about the perpetual structure due to compliance resistance or clearing risks, capital will quickly tighten leverage exposure and revert to traditional expiry date contracts. The trigger condition for this scenario is regulatory demands for significant modifications to delivery terms. The variable to watch is the frequency of compliance inquiries, and the failure signal is regulators giving substantive pre-approval expectations in advance.
The condition for judging the overall scenario failure is that market capital does not change the existing discrete trading session position allocation logic due to the introduction of the perpetual structure, resulting in long-term low liquidity of the new contract.
In the next 7 days, key observations include the CFTC's preliminary acceptance feedback on Kalshi's submitted documents and macro capital's position stance on this derivative structure.
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 After $BTC plunged 50%, everyone was waiting for that decisive "V-shaped reversal." But the reality was a sucker punch: the market did not mount a desperate counterattack; instead, it fell into a suffocating "structural bottoming" process.
The macro headwinds are like an invisible net. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the Federal Reserve stays hawkish, geopolitical conflicts add fuel to the fire, and risk asset valuations are firmly pressed down. Even worse, the once "faithful" has cracked—Strategy was forced to net sell due to liquidity pressure, ETF funds continue to bleed, and the market has completely fallen into a vacuum of incremental capital.
But if you think this is the abyss, you are gravely mistaken.
Beneath the surface of retail investors despairing and widespread market panic, the real "smart money" is quietly completing an extremely covert chip transfer. Whales and mid-sized holders are silently accumulating against the trend around $60,000, and spot demand is quietly approaching a critical turning point to positive. The market has not experienced that kind of desperate "surrender sell-off"; instead, it chooses to "boil the frog slowly" with low-volatility sideways trading in the narrow range between $58,000 and $68,000, gradually draining the last patience of speculators.
The long-term logic of Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat depreciation has never wavered, and the current price range indeed holds medium- to long-term allocation value. But before the Federal Reserve truly signals rate cuts and spot buying fully returns, the market can only choose to "trade time for space."
The world never rewards emotions, only cognition. At the deepest point of the cycle, time is always the most faithful enforcer of asymmetry.
#花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容
#SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案
$ETH $SNDK $DOGE has a very peculiar advantage: the simpler it is, the easier it is to step outside the Crypto circle.
To get ordinary people to understand ETH, you have to explain smart contracts, Gas, staking, Layer2.
To explain SOL, you also have to talk about performance and on-chain ecology.
What about $DOGE?
A Shiba Inu.
This sounds like a joke, but in the world of communication, "whether it can be understood in one second" is extremely valuable.
When ordinary users enter Crypto for the first time, they usually don’t read the whitepaper first. They first recognize the symbol, then the asset, and only then might they understand the technology behind it.
DOGE’s biggest advantage is its extremely low cognitive cost.
But simplicity also has a price.
If an asset only has a symbol and no more use cases, the market’s final valuation of it completely depends on the speed of consensus expansion.
So DOGE’s real opportunity is not to become complex.
On the contrary, it should continue to be simple while making simple things usable in more places.
The biggest mistake of Meme is thinking that once culture exists, you have to force a complex technical story.
DOGE’s most valuable aspect might precisely be that it never needs to pretend to be ETH.
#DOGE #Dogecoin #ETH #Meme #Crypto #欧易星球In-depth review of the sharp decline in the US AI sector on August 19
On August 19, the overall US stock market weakened overnight, with the AI industry chain becoming the core hard-hit area of this round of market sell-off.
At the index level, all major indices closed lower: the Nasdaq fell 1.3%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 plunged 1.7%, reflecting a concentrated release of tech growth sell-off sentiment. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 5.6%, fully opening the adjustment range for the tech sector.
The decline varied significantly across sub-sectors, with the storage sector leading the losses: SanDisk dropped nearly 9%, Micron and Western Digital both fell about 7%; leading AI chipmakers were also under pressure, with Nvidia retreating 2.3% and Broadcom down 3.2%. Additionally, core semiconductor stocks such as Marvell, Intel, and AMD collectively weakened, while optical communication and AI network equipment sectors experienced the deepest declines, triggering a concentrated correction across the entire AI hardware infrastructure chain.
The core reason for this AI bull market correction lies in the dual pressure of weakening revenue expectations and crowded position structures, which is the fundamental logic behind this sell-off.
1. AI terminal commercialization growth falls short of extreme expectations, breaking the core bullish logic
Previously, the market continuously hyped the underlying logic of AI computing power, storage, and servers, driven by sustained demand exceeding expectations from leading AI model companies and perpetual high growth. However, the latest operational data has completely shattered the market's extreme optimism.
OpenAI's latest disclosed data shows its Q2 revenue increased from $5.7 billion in Q1 to $6.7 billion, a sequential growth of 18%. Although it remains positive growth, the pace is below institutional optimistic expectations, while losses continue to widen and operating profit margins keep declining. This has led the market to revise its pre-IPO profit expectations, marking the first clear crack in the AI high-growth narrative.
Meanwhile, Anthropic's performance data has also cooled. Its annualized revenue run rate as of the end of July reached $65 billion, still at a high growth level but far below the previously rumored optimistic expectations of $70–80 billion.
The most critical support for the AI rally is sustained terminal demand exceeding expectations. Once the growth of leading AI companies materializes below the market's extreme fantasies, the market will reassess the return cycle of the entire capital expenditure chain including GPUs, storage, data centers, and cloud computing power, naturally leading to a correction of previously overextended high valuations.
2. Crowded long and short position structures amplify the magnitude of this decline
Beyond weakening fundamentals, extreme position structures have further intensified the adjustment.
Goldman Sachs data shows the short interest ratio in S&P 500 components has climbed to the highest level since 2011, with short positions in large-cap US stocks steadily increasing over the past three months.
In contrast, the AI infrastructure sector still accumulates massive long positions, representing an extremely crowded long sector. This "heavy long position with rich unrealized gains + continuous short position buildup" dual crowded structure makes the AI sector extremely sensitive to negative news.
The AI sector had accumulated huge gains previously, with longs holding substantial unrealized profits. Once fundamental logic shows flaws, capital will immediately choose to take profits; simultaneously, shorts will intensify valuation pressure. The resonance of bidirectional capital ultimately triggered the collective deep correction of the AI tech sector last night.
Summary:
This round of AI sharp decline is not accidental; it is the triple result of expectation overextension correction, fundamental cooling, and position structure adjustment. In the short term, the AI high-valuation sector will enter a phase of valuation digestion and logic verification. Whether the subsequent market can stabilize depends primarily on whether leading AI companies' revenue and profit margin data can once again exceed expectations. #闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 #英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂 $BTC $ETH #SEC提出 Draft of the "Crypto Asset Regulation" 1. Chip Structure: 64K is an "institutional cost wall," not a psychological level. Breaking down the on-chain + exchange data from the past 30 days: 62,800–63,200: At the end of July and beginning of August, spot ETFs saw net inflows of 865 million in the building area, where whale addresses intensively accumulated funds, serving as a long ammunition base. 64,000–64,500: 8/13–8/17 The reduction zone when the ETF outflowed 385 million but did not break 62,800→ indicating short-term institutional reductions and untouched long-term chips. 65,000–65,500: July trapped zone, with the biggest option pain point at 64,000 + call strike at 65,000 stacked, forming a bearish defense. Today, BTC is stuck between 64,300–64,700, right between the "upper edge of the long ammunition depot" and the "lower edge of the bear defense line"—market makers suppress the Gamma near the 64,000 pain point, allowing option sellers to secure time value To put it another way: it's not that BTC "doesn't want to fall," but that 62,800 yuan has ETF bottom positions and 65,000 options sellers are squeezing the price. The price is trapped in the Gamma valley, unrelated to macro factors, but an inherent "static zone" of derivatives structure. 2. Liquidity Gap: Weekend + Before the Minutes, No One Wants to Act First 8/19 is Wednesday, but the US session focuses on the minutes at 02:00 tomorrow morning. The Asian session + European morning session is considered a "stagnant period." The 24-hour BTC spot trading volume was about 40% lower than 8/14, ETH about 35%—not resistance to decline, but no trading. Short Closing and Liquidation 1The answer is no! !️ It's not that the crypto market has stopped seeing a bull market, but rather that the traditional alt season of "Bitcoin surges ➡️, funds spill over to Ethereum ➡️, altcoins surges dozens or even hundreds of times with eyes closed" has seen an irreversible structural rupture at its core. The current crypto market is rapidly "becoming like a US stock market," evolving from the flood of incremental funds (Beta rally) in past cycles to a game of stock and structure (Alpha divergence and K-shaped patterns). 1. Why has the traditional "Shanzhai Season conveyor belt" broken? During the 2017 and 2021 cycles, there was a clear chain of liquidity spillover in the market. However, in this cycle, this teleportation mechanism encountered four major structural obstacles: 1. "Physical Isolation" of Capital Channels (ETF Effect) Past Capital Paths: Retail and native funds entered through offshore exchanges and stablecoins (USDT/USDC). After profiting from trading BTC, they tended to rotate buying altcoins within the crypto ecosystem to seek higher returns. Current capital paths: The core drivers come from Wall Street spot ETFs, pension funds, and macro sovereign institutions. These funds are stored within the traditional securities clearing system, only buying a very small number of compliant items like BTC, and cannot spill over on-chain long-tail counterfeit tokens through physical channels. 2. "Unlimited token supply" vs. "Limited marginal liquidity" Target hyperinflation: In the past, the entire market only had a few thousand to tens of thousands of tokens; Now I borrow itCrypto investment firm BitMine bought another 9,926 $ETH last week, increasing its holdings to 5.82 million coins—about 4.8% of the total network supply. More striking than the numbers is its state: **floating losses on paper, losing money, still increasing positions**. Put together, this combination is worth pondering more than any good news. First, settle the accounts. What does 5.82 million coins mean: $ETH 4.8% of total supply, just one step away from its own 5% acquisition target. 87% of holdings are staked on-chain, with short-term delisting and hedging; The total investment in crypto and related assets amounts to $11.4 billion. Last week, those 9,926 shares weren't just adding to positions—they were adding positions, and the 'last mile' was still on the gas. Why buy at a loss? Three logics stacked together. First, strategic acquisitions plus cost sharing—BitMine is essentially a $ETH version of the micro-strategy buy-$BTC strategy, buying more and more as prices fall, with average prices constantly pulled down, and the paper losses are a process, not the result. Second, 87% of staking yields is on the side, coins are not idle, staking yields are used to hedge floating losses, and time is on its side—it's not in a rush to sell, because the coins will "work" on their own. Third, the 5% target draws a line: before reaching the target, it is a marginal buying position in the market that is always buying, providing $ETH with a bottoming out; Once the target is met, they are likely to become 'stockpiling, not buying' stockholders. This line is both the upper limit for buying and the lower limit for chip accumulation. The supporting actions also respond accordingly. Norwegian Government Global Pension FundStocks are falling.
$BTC is holding strong and continuing to push higher.
That divergence matters.
My indicator suggests capital rotation may already be underway, away from traditional risk assets and toward crypto.
If the rotation continues, $BTC could be setting up for the next leg higher.
The market may be telling us something before the headlines do.Don’t get carried away by this bullish candle—it could be a “gift” from the bears, not a confirmed bottom from the bulls.
Many traders immediately call for a reversal at the first sign of strength, but the underlying data tells a different story.
The main driver behind BTC’s recent rebound appears to be a large-scale short squeeze, with more than $50 million in short positions liquidated. That looks more like a forced-covering rally than genuine spot buying driving sustained demand.
Liquidity conditions also remain weak. ETFs were still experiencing net outflows on Monday, while capital continues flowing toward tokenized U.S. stocks and the broader RWA sector. With limited fresh liquidity, weak volume, and little follow-through, the current move could simply be short covering creating the appearance of a breakout.
Staying cautious here isn’t being bearish for the sake of it—it’s about respecting market structure.
Without meaningful new capital entering, BTC may struggle to decisively clear the $64K–$65K resistance zone, leaving the latest bounce vulnerable to another rejection.
The real test is whether bulls can bring in fresh liquidity—not whether shorts can be squeezed.
#XiaomiQ2Earnings
#SECProposesCryptoRules
#SandiskValuationSplit $SNDK dropped nearly 9% in one day! The real reason behind SanDisk's crash: it's not poor performance, but "money has become too expensive"
The most deadly bearish news in the stock market is often not that a company has problems, but that "money" suddenly becomes more expensive across the entire market.
There are three direct reasons:
First, the yield on the US 30-year Treasury surged to 5.33%, hitting a new high since 2007. When interest rates rise, the future "story" of tech stocks loses value, and valuations must be discounted — this is not just SanDisk's problem, but the entire tech sector is taking a hit.
Second, sector stampede. The day before, Musk shouted out, and the stock price just rose 8.8%, but the next day sentiment retreated, and profit-taking surged. Plus, the entire Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5%, so no one can stay unscathed.
Third, SanDisk itself is not clean. The price rose from $235 to $2354 this year, more than 6 times, with heavy profit-taking. Also, the "smart money" has already left — Renaissance Technologies reduced holdings by 99%, Appaloosa completely exited. Morgan Stanley also warned: these stocks are "overcrowded" and overdue for a correction.
On August 18, SanDisk plunged 9%, dragging down the storage big five including Seagate and Micron.
The "foundation" of the storage bull market is starting to loosen! Is this drop in SanDisk a golden opportunity or a bottomless abyss?$BTC has reclaimed above $64,000, showing clear short-term strength.
But the closer it gets to $65,000, the more cautious I become.
The reason is simple: there has been repeated selling pressure around this level.
If this time it just pushes near $65,000 and then gets slammed down again, the so-called "reversal" is likely just a bull trap.
What really changes my judgment is not how high BTC rises, but whether it can hold $65,000 underfoot.
Once it breaks out with volume and then takes out $66,400, the whole market sentiment will shift.
At that point, short sellers will stop out and buyers will chase the rally, likely triggering an acceleration.
But before the breakout, I prefer to define the current move as:
A strong rebound, not a confirmed reversal.
So don’t get carried away just by seeing green and red bars.
Look to $63,000 for support, $65,000 for breakout, and $66,400 for trend confirmation.
BTC isn’t lacking stories right now.
It’s just missing a truly significant breakout candle.$TRX (TRON) — Currently $0.333, 24h +0.32%
$TRX currently $0.333, dropped from $0.336 to $0.333 in 7D, -0.92%, almost no movement.
I am Yuvi.
Let's talk about the current value of $TRX: TRX represents "boring but profitable." TRON network leads the world in stablecoin transfer volume, and Justin Sun's marketing skills keep $TRX always in the spotlight. The advantage is strong cash flow and genuine on-chain activity; the downside is criticized decentralization and poor price elasticity, underperforming most major coins in bull markets.
My approach: Suitable for conservative allocation, not for those seeking high volatility.#SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案
The leader has something to say
The SEC's draft is still developing this afternoon.
Two exemption paths: a startup exemption of 5 million over four years, and a financing exemption of 75 million over 12 months. The safe harbor clause allows tokens to be freed from securities law constraints after the project team completes the core work.
The difference from the Clarity Act must be clarified. Clarity is congressional legislation covering the broad framework of digital asset classification, regulatory division, and exchange registration. The SEC draft is an administrative rule addressing a specific issue: how projects comply with financing. One builds from the top down, the other supplements from the bottom up.
The SEC chair admitted that previous enforcement methods drove projects away, and now they want to use this set of rules to bring people back. He also said administrative rules are only a temporary solution; congressional legislation is the foundation.
Bitcoin hovered around 64500 all day, the news is somewhat positive, but the price remains unchanged. Hold the 64300 short position for now, stop loss at 65000; if it goes up, continue adding positions and short in batches.
Continue holding the SPCX base position, profits are sufficient. Wait to see after SNDK adjusts, no rush to enter.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on orders. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Anthropic credit plans to exceed $10 billion, AI companies are entering another phase
Previously, when people looked at AI financing, they focused on valuation, equity, and who led the investment. Now it's different: bank credit lines, private credit, data center debt, and chip leasing are all coming to the table together. Model companies are no longer just startups; they are becoming capital-consuming infrastructure companies.
This is very exciting but also very risky.
Debt will give pre-IPO Anthropic more ammunition, proving it is not just surviving on equity financing. But debt will also force the company to face cash flow discipline earlier. Fast revenue growth is not enough; computing power costs, enterprise renewals, model gross margins, and capital expenditures all need to keep pace.
The biggest fear for AI valuations is not being expensive.
It's that everyone is using internet software multiples to buy a business that increasingly resembles a hybrid of energy, real estate, and equipment leasing.
Once debt is taken on, the fairy tale starts to accrue interest
#Anthropic信贷拟超百亿美元 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
Xiaomi's Q2 Report: Is the Auto Business Saving the Day or Is the Phone Business Holding It Back?
The two sides of Xiaomi in Q2: Auto charging ahead, phones dragging behind
Just finished reading Xiaomi's latest earnings report, and I have some reflections.
The auto business is really strong. They sold 54,000 vehicles in a single quarter, generating revenue of 17.8 billion, with a gross margin of 15.4%. Last year they were still losing over 2 billion, but this year they are profitable, with nearly double quarter-on-quarter growth. There's an SUV launch planned for September, the product line is expanding, and economies of scale are kicking in. This ramp-up speed is indeed faster than many expected. From the chat group reactions, most people's first thought was "The auto business has finally taken off" — probably the most anticipated development for Xiaomi in the past two years, and now it’s coming to fruition.
But flipping to the phone side, the situation is less optimistic. Domestic market share is about 13%, being squeezed by Honor, OPPO, and vivo. Market share in India is also declining. Upstream component costs remain high, squeezing profit margins thinner and thinner. One number in the report really stands out — the phone business's gross margin has dropped, indicating real cost pressure. Some in the group chat also discussed that Android phones are hard to sell right now, everyone is waiting for the upgrade cycle, and Xiaomi is no exception.
So back to the question: Is the auto business saving the day or is the phone business holding it back?
Actually, both are true. Without the auto business, the growth in this report would look very poor; the increase mainly relies on auto. But without the scale and supply chain foundation of the phone business, Xiaomi couldn't support the investment in auto. One business is climbing upward, the other is under pressure.
The next 12 to 18 months are critical. The auto business must keep climbing, the SUV must be delivered smoothly, and the phone business must stabilize its market share — all three lines must move forward simultaneously, none can falter. Lei Jun has led Xiaomi through the leap from phones to autos, but the real test is still ahead. ⚠️ This article is only a market review record and does not constitute investment advice. In February 2025, SanDisk completed its spin-off from Western Digital and went public, with its stock starting at just over forty dollars. In just one year and four months, it soared to a peak of $2,354.39, with a maximum increase close to 4000%, becoming the most dazzling AI storage legend in the entire US stock market. Countless retail investors have doubled their accounts here, and the market generally believes that the storage cycle has been completely killed by AI. But the celebration did not last into autumn. After the peak, the stock price quickly pulled back and nearly halved, fluctuating around 10% in a single day. With high turnover and dramatic swings, the once-popular leader of the era saw a brutal return to valuation. This collapse was not a sudden black swan but a complete narrative, covering the entire process from establishment, fermentation, climax, to gradual collapse. 1. How the Myth Was Built The rise of this market rally is not just hype; it is built on three layers of stories, propelling SanDisk to the pinnacle of history. The first layer is AI inference that brings a real rigid storage need. With the explosion of large model inference, KV-Cache has become an indispensable component for computing power, and demand for enterprise-level large-capacity NAND flash memory is surging. Server storage demand surged exponentially, consumer-grade storage remained stable, the industry experienced structural supply shortages, spot flash memory prices continued to climb, company profits exploded, and quarterly gross margin hit a historic high of 84.6%. The second layer is the new long-term contract model, with the market fantasizing that the cycle is "dead." Management throws NA revolving credit line above $10B would be more revealing as a liquidity signal than as a debt headline. Anthropic is reportedly discussing the facility while expanding an existing five-year $2.5B line; because a revolver is drawn only when needed, its value lies in preserving flexibility before an IPO.
Reported annualized revenue above $65B and $65B raised in equity suggest scale, but not necessarily self-funding capacity. My read: the key test is whether revenue growth can outrun the cash demands of compute, data centers and model R&D. A larger backstop strengthens resilience, while also sharpening scrutiny of cash conversion.
#AnthropicSeeks10BLine**No buy or sell signals. Continuing sideways movement.**
Latest market:
- BTC ~$64,300 (slightly down, still above $64K 200EMA)
- ETH ~$1,907 (-0.5%, slight pullback)
- XRP ~$1.00 (unchanged)
- OKB ~$101 (+3.9%, continuing rebound)
- HYPE ~$58.3 (-1.9%)
- DOGE ~$0.070 (unchanged)
About **13 hours** until the FOMC minutes. Volume is shrinking across the board with no clear direction.
Continue holding ETH long positions; no need to worry as long as $64K holds.$BTC Today it touched 65,000 again (intraday high 65,066, now 64,345). That same week, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, updated its 10-year portfolio analysis—a 1-2% $BTC allocation recommendation, not moving a single point. Watch the restated position: $BTC The current price is still about half of the all-time high. Reaffirming allocation value at a position where asset prices have been halved is more worth pondering than the content of the opinion. BlackRock's argument has three layers. First, this round of correction is a "forced selling"—a decline driven by leverage and liquidation, not a long-term logical deterioration, so the allocation framework remains unchanged. Second, the debt argument: Under the pressure of expanding and currency depreciation on government debt in the US, Europe, and Japan, assets locked in supply ($BTC, gold) are a natural choice for hedging the debt crisis. Third, volatility has declined for ten years—market structure matures, derivatives tools are abundant, and ETFs are expanding. $BTC's risk profile has evolved from "speculative products" to "allocation products." The report also added: $BTC has passed through five full cycles, with each low higher than the last. The data does support this viewpoint. $IBIT holds about $47 billion, making it the most successful spot ETF in history; The average spot ETF buyers had a floating loss of about 22%, but buying at the end of July actually rebounded—this is "new allocation," not "averaging," indicating that incremental funds are entering at halved levels. On-chain is also synchronized: hold ≥10,000 $BTC Core Facts Verified (Pre-market Announcement on 8/18, Q2 FY2026): Revenue of $47.9 billion, up 5.7% year-over-year, beating the expected $47.3-47.5 billion. Adjusted EPS $4.92, beating the expected $4.73, up 5.1% year-over-year (GAAP EPS $4.79, up $4.58 from the same period last year). Total same-store sales grew by 1.7%, with US local same-store sales up 1.3%, the strongest in recent years. More critical detail: Same-store sales accelerated month-on-month—May+ 0.5%, June +1.2%, July +2.2%, indicating that this quarter was not supported by a single month but showed continuous improvement. Of the 16 product divisions, 13 delivered positive growth, with average transaction value increasing 2.8% to $92.50. The company reiterated (not an upward revision) full-year guidance: total revenue grew 2.5%-4.5%, same-store sales remained flat to 2% growth. CFO Richard McPhail described the current situation as a "frozen housing market environment." However, it emphasizes that the company is competing for market share. After the earnings report, the stock price rose 2% in pre-market trading. The current stock price is $339.78, with a P/E ratio of 23.9 times. The market price's implied fair value is about $303, indicating the market may have already priced in this recovery. Echoing last week's forward-looking judgment: our original test criterion was whether same-store sales could maintain around +0.6% in Q1, but not only did they hold on, but they accelerated month by month to +2.2%, which is even better than the optimistic scenario originally anticipated.hidden signal — red prices, but the structure remains intact
At first glance, the market looks weak, with $BTC around $64,360(-0.57%)and $ETH near $1,914(-0.17%). But the more interesting story is happening beneath the price.Both assets are still holding above their short-term moving averages,while market depth shows buy-side liquidity stacked below current levels
That leaves the market in a tug-of-war — buyers have not stepped away,but they still lack enough strength to push through resistance.Capital is "voting with its feet": From altcoins to US stock tokens, the crypto market is experiencing a major split
The harsh reality of the current crypto market is that the market structure is undergoing profound changes:
· Flood of US stock tokens — a surge in listings continuously diverting on-exchange funds
· Decline in "native crypto" purity — the boundary between traditional finance and crypto is increasingly blurred
· A landmark signal: $SNDK (a certain US stock token) single-day trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin $BTC
Logic behind capital migration
The crypto space is essentially a highly speculative market, driven by two core factors:
· Strength of consensus
· Abundance of liquidity
When risk appetite declines, capital naturally withdraws from highly volatile crypto assets and shifts toward US tech stocks with more "real entity support" — this is a rational choice of capital, unrelated to belief.
Future differentiation: delisting wave vs. exemptions
· Most altcoins: face gradual delisting risk, lack underlying value support, reduced to pure speculative play
· US stock tokens: very unlikely to be delisted, the core difference lies in —
· Air: no cash flow, no assets, no business
· Entity: has revenue, regulatory framework, and secondary market anchoring
Bitcoin's independent path
Bitcoin will continue its unique cyclical pattern:
· Halving narrative remains valid — supply-side hard constraints continue to play a role
· Correlation with Nasdaq: will gradually weaken, moving toward a trend independent of traditional risk assets
Summary: The market is cleansing speculative bubbles; the ability to distinguish "assets" from "symbols" will determine survival and elimination in the next cycle.
#花旗拟推BTC托管，机构入口扩容
#SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案
#贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值 I'm building a crazy Bitcoin position. Currently, I hold a $2.9 million long position in $BTC. If all orders are completed, the total size will approach $20 million. My average entry price was $51,256. My goal is to cash out $100 million in the next cycle. Then reinvest in different assets, repeating the cycle. Am I crazy, or a genius? This is a highly controversial position layout. Numerically, a $2.9 million position is already significant, and once all orders are filled, $20 million will make it a player not to be overlooked in the market. The average entry price of $51,256 means the trader chose to heavily bet on the long-term trend even after Bitcoin's intense volatility. The key lies in the "next cycle" timeframe. If historical cycles repeat themselves, Bitcoin often hits all-time highs within 12 to 18 months after the halving event. At current prices, a target from $51,256 to $100 million means Bitcoin would need to achieve about a 50-fold increase, far exceeding any previous cycle. Even with the most optimistic forecasts—such as $100,000 or $150,000—a $20 million position would only bring a 3 to 5 times return, still far from the $100 million target. In terms of market reaction, this level of public position usually sparks debate between two camps. Supporters believe that daring to hold positions at low levels and hold for the long term is a typical trait of institutional players or extreme believers; Opponents refer to#SEC Proposes Crypto Asset Regulatory Draft + White House Meets Crypto Industry
In the early hours of August 19, I saw @Reuters report that the U.S. securities regulator proposed the long-awaited crypto asset regulatory rules. @tyler Winklevoss directly called it Historic: this draft allows crypto projects to raise funds from the public with proper disclosure, finally ending the bad-faith argument that every token is a security.
In the same week, the White House met with crypto industry executives. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said this is broadly positive for $BTC and DeFi. The CLARITY Act is stuck below the Senate 60-vote threshold, and Galaxy cut its probability from 75% to 10%. The signal I see is: regulation is shifting from legislation to administrative advancement, with both tracks opening in the same week.
Let me first break down the core of the SEC draft:
Tyler Winklevoss’s summary is straightforward. The significance of this draft is not in the details but in the SEC’s acknowledgment that crypto projects can legally raise funds from the public with proper disclosure. The biggest regulatory risk I’ve tracked over the past few years was the SEC using the securities definition as a catch-all to bring most tokens under securities law jurisdiction. If the draft passes, crypto projects will have a clear compliance path: disclosure + fundraising = legal, no longer needing to battle the SEC over whether something is a security.
But I also see a concerning counter-signal from @BitcoinNews: crypto is increasingly portrayed as a bad actor in U.S. politics, with hostility spreading from Trump-associated projects to the entire industry. The SEC draft is an administrative push, but political sentiment is moving in the opposite direction. The tug-of-war between these forces will determine the speed and scope of the draft’s final implementation.
The CLARITY Act is stuck below the Senate 60-vote threshold, and Galaxy cut its chance of passing this year from 75% to 10%. When legislation stalls, administration steps in. The White House meeting with crypto executives is an administrative move, advancing regulatory dialogue within the executive framework without going through Congress.
@blckchaindaily reported Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan saying Trump’s upcoming meeting with crypto executives is broadly positive for $BTC and DeFi. This isn’t the first White House engagement with the crypto industry, but placed in the same week as the CLARITY deadlock and SEC draft release, the signal density is high.
Strategy also did something subtle in the same week
@Meta8Mate reported Strategy sold 3.46 million shares of $MSTR last week, raising $333.7 million, with no $BTC bought or sold, holding steady at 840,447 coins. Of that, $132.2 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares, $52.4 million paid in dividends, and $150 million added to USD reserves, now totaling $4.8 billion.
My view: previously, issuing stock was to buy coins; now it’s to pay interest, repay debt, and add USD reserves. Strategy has shifted from pure offense to a balanced offense-defense approach. This is interesting when viewed alongside the SEC draft and White House meeting in the same week: when regulation is uncertain, even the largest $BTC bulls are hoarding cash defensively.
I checked OKX market data
$BTC perpetual on 8/19 at 04:30 was $64,333.1, +0.47% in 24h; funding rate +0.0100%, open interest about $2.12 billion. $ETH perpetual was $1,911.03, +1.31% in 24h; funding rate +0.0027%, open interest about $1.33 billion.
$ETH’s 24h gains are more than double $BTC’s again. The pattern of $ETH outperforming $BTC in the market continues. I judge that if the SEC draft passes, the impact on $ETH may be greater than on $BTC, because the SEC’s past securities crackdowns mainly targeted altcoins and DeFi tokens. $ETH, as the first smart contract platform beneficiary, will directly benefit in valuation narrative under the new framework where tokens are not presumed securities.
The SEC draft and White House meeting are two parallel tracks. The SEC draft follows an administrative rulemaking process requiring public comment, feedback, revisions, and finalization, usually taking months to over a year. The White House meeting is a political dialogue, with outcomes depending on executive willingness to advance.
@BitcoinNews’s observation provides a counterbalance: political sentiment is moving in the opposite direction, portraying crypto as a bad actor. If this sentiment intensifies before the midterm elections, administrative progress may slow. The SEC draft and White House meeting are good news, but I still see a divergence between good news and market sentiment.
As usual, I’ll throw out three questions and want to hear your thoughts:
Tyler Winklevoss said the argument that every token is a security is over. Do you believe the SEC draft can truly end this debate?
With CLARITY stuck in the Senate and the SEC draft advancing administratively, do you bet regulation will move faster through legislation or administration?
$ETH has outperformed $BTC in the market for several days. If the SEC draft passes, do you bet $ETH’s valuation benefits more or $BTC’s?
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #SEC #CryptoRegulation Today it increased by 11% and the current price is 0.007227. Many people will think that this is not an opportunity; here the focus is on risk reduction. The nature of this increase is actually a compensation after the decline, with no new positive news. Looking back at history, this is a typical trend for meme coins: initially, fueled by rumors about Musk restarting Vine, it exploded to 0.46, then experienced a rapid decline, often within a day, and now it has dropped more than 98% from its highest point.#30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
Brothers, recently there’s a market signal I think is more worth paying attention to than just watching BTC’s price moves!
The 30-year US Treasury yield has risen to a high level, and in June, major US Treasury holders like Japan, the UK, and China have reduced their holdings. At the same time, long-term government bond yields in major economies such as Japan and Europe are also rising.
What does this mean? Simply put: global financing costs are becoming more expensive.
The higher the US Treasury yield, the more interest the US government will have to pay in the future, increasing fiscal pressure; corporate and social financing costs will also rise accordingly.
So gold $XAU will be affected first. Gold itself generates no interest, so the higher the bond yields, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it vulnerable to short-term pressure.
High-valuation tech stocks $SNDK also suffer. Rising interest rates mean higher funding costs, reducing the discounted value of future earnings, which puts more pressure on high-valuation assets.
The most interesting is $BTC, which, despite the rise in long-term interest rates, is currently showing relatively strong resilience.
So what’s really worth watching now is not just when the Fed will cut rates, but how much longer long-term US Treasury yields can rise? And whether BTC can continue to hold up?
Changes in the bond market may be repricing asset values for the next phase. Brothers, be sure to watch out for risks ahead! #财报观察员: Xiaomi's Q2 earnings report is out. Is the automotive segment saving the day or is the phone business holding it back?
With the Q2 report released, revenue hit 108.9 billion, profits stopped declining quarter-over-quarter, and the market responded with a 6% rally—wait, profits are still falling, so why is the market excited?
The 9.2 billion R&D investment is starting to show results. Chips, AI, robots—these used to be cost centers, but now they’re becoming stories worth telling. The phone business is actively adjusting its pace; shipments dropped 26.5%, but ASP rose 25.9% to 1351 yuan, so the move toward premium positioning is holding. Gross margin was squeezed to 8.5% by rising storage prices, but management says the worst is behind us, and the market is choosing to believe that for now.
The automotive line is the market’s main focus. Q2 deliveries reached 104,000 units, with cumulative deliveries surpassing 500,000, generating 23.9 billion in revenue. Although the segment still lost 2.6 billion overall, economies of scale are developing, and the market is starting to view automotive alongside phones, chips, and AI, rather than as a standalone money-burning project.
Several upcoming milestones are worth watching: the launch of the Xuanjie new chip, a flurry of new products in September, and the robot debut. But the real test will be in Q3—whether phone gross margin can hold above 8%, and whether the full-year delivery target of 550,000 units can be met. These will determine if this rally is a rebound or a reversal.
Short sellers are covering, long-term investors are entering, and retail investors are still watching. The 3.4 level—is it a starting point or an endpoint? Q3 will provide the answer.
#闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧
$BTC $ETH