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$BTC
There are many people getting rich here
Bitcoin weekly MACD divergence
Volatility at historical extremes
The strategy has been at a bullish level on the daily chart
The bullish trend that has been held for a month is finally starting today, still the bottom view from the end of July: many people will get rich here, including #ETH#SOL The biggest risk for OKB right now might not be a price drop, but that everyone has already started to believe in advance that it will keep rising.
The discussion around OKB has clearly heated up again these days.
But I actually want to remind you:
A fixed supply of 21 million tokens does not necessarily mean the price will continue to rise.
After OKX completed the X Layer upgrade last year, it designated OKB as the sole Gas and native token of X Layer, and fixed the total supply at 21 million through a one-time burn.
This logic is indeed very elegant.
But what the market really needs to verify next is not:
"Is OKB scarce?"
But rather:
Does X Layer really have real users?
If on-chain transactions, DeFi, payments, and RWA businesses truly take off in the future, then the demand logic for OKB will become increasingly solid.
But if the ecosystem growth doesn’t keep up, in the end, all that people will be speculating on is just one sentence:
"The total supply is only 21 million."
That becomes a bit dangerous.
I think OKB has now entered a very interesting phase:
Previously, speculation was based on expectations; going forward, it will be based on data.
User numbers, on-chain transaction volume, Gas consumption, ecosystem projects, capital scale...
If these start to grow steadily, OKB will truly have the confidence to keep telling its story.
Otherwise, the faster it rises, the more caution is needed.
So if I had to choose now:
I wouldn’t chase OKB just because it’s rising.
I would wait for it to prove:
Whether these 21 million tokens are really needed by more and more people.
What do you think will be the real breakout point for OKB’s next round?
1️⃣ X Layer ecosystem
2️⃣ OKX exchange growth
3️⃣ Continued OKB burns/scarcity
4️⃣ Pure market speculation
Drop a number in the comments.
#OKB #OKX #XLayer #Crypto $OKB 📊 $ETH Liquidation Flash Report (August 19)
According to liquidation data, the bears executed a textbook unilateral short squeeze on ETH from short to long cycles, with shorts controlling the market from the 1-hour mark, continuously crushing the bulls, and total liquidations surpassing $28.05 million.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $7.0879 million $0.5346 million $6.5533 million
4 hours $20.4618 million $2.0885 million $18.3733 million
12 hours $26.7745 million $3.0787 million $23.6958 million
24 hours $28.0518 million $4.1171 million $23.9347 million
From the $ETH liquidation data, short liquidations crushed longs by 12.2 times in 1 hour, with the short squeeze unfolding at a nuclear intensity level, liquidation volume at $7.0879 million—shorts dominated the short cycle strongly, bulls were directly crushed; at 4 hours, shorts continued to crush, being 8.8 times the longs, the squeeze intensity weakened significantly but remained extremely strong, liquidation volume surged from $7.0879 million to $20.4618 million—shorts exerted full force, bulls continuously crushed; at 12 hours, shorts still crushed, 7.7 times the longs, squeeze momentum continued to weaken, liquidation volume soared to $26.7745 million—shorts still controlling but losing strength; at 24 hours, direction sharply weakened, shorts only slightly exceeded longs by 5.8 times, squeeze momentum continued to exhaust, cumulative liquidations surpassed $28.0518 million—bears completed the full path of “full-force short squeeze in short cycle → sustained momentum exhaustion in long cycle” on ETH, shorts controlled the market from 1 hour but the crushing ratio shrank from 12.2 times to 5.8 times at 24 hours, squeeze energy is rapidly fading, bulls and bears are returning to balance, direction may reverse at any time. A textbook-level unilateral short squeeze market. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Shorts have continuously crushed longs across all ETH cycles with highly consistent direction, but the ratio from 1H to 24H narrows from 12.2 to 5.8 times, squeeze momentum is rapidly exhausting, risk of direction reversal is very high; 12-hour and 24-hour liquidations account for 98% of the daily total, concentration is extremely high, market volatility is extremely intense. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x, avoid blindly chasing shorts, strictly control positions and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 19
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: money earned from AI is starting to be massively returned to shareholders—but market divergence on the storage cycle has not dissipated.
📱 Xiaomi Q2 Earnings: Phones Down, Cars Up
On August 18, Xiaomi released its Q2 2026 results: revenue of ¥108.9 billion, adjusted net profit of ¥6.2 billion.
The smartphone business is under full pressure, shipments dropped sharply by 26.5% year-on-year to 31.2 million units, revenue fell to ¥42.1 billion. But ASP hit a historic high of ¥1351—selling fewer units but at higher prices.
The automotive business became the biggest highlight: smart electric vehicle revenue reached ¥23.9 billion, deliveries totaled 104,199 units, up 28.2% year-on-year; innovative business overall revenue was ¥24.9 billion, increasing its share of total revenue to 22.9%. But concerns remain real—the automotive gross margin fell from 26.4% last year to 19.2%.
"Phones support the family, cars start the business"—Xiaomi’s transformation period continues.
🏦 SK Hynix 40 Trillion Won Buyback: The Largest "Cancellation Buyback" in History
On August 19, SK Hynix announced a buyback and cancellation of shares worth 40 trillion KRW (about $28.6 billion). This is the largest treasury stock cancellation in the history of Korean listed companies.
Specifically, the company will repurchase up to 24.07 million shares (about 3.3% of total shares) from August 20 to November 19, and all repurchased shares will be canceled. Meanwhile, the shareholder return target for 2025 to 2027 has been raised from "not exceeding 50% of cumulative free cash flow" to over 50%.
On one hand, expansion; on the other, buyback—the company had previously raised its 2026 capital expenditure plan to the latter half of 40 trillion KRW. Against the backdrop of a significant stock price correction from the July peak, SK Hynix is telling the market with real money: AI earnings must be invested in the future and returned to the present.
💾 SanDisk Drops Over 9%, Storage Valuation Divergence Intensifies
On August 18, the five major storage companies collectively plunged, with SanDisk dropping 9.01% to $1,625.78.
This is not due to a sudden deterioration in fundamentals but triggered by profit-taking from AI investment valuation doubts and excessive short-term gains. The previous $93.9 billion long-term contract and 80% gross margin target failed to prevent market divergence.
The core divergence is one question: Is storage still a cyclical stock? If the long-term contract can truly rewrite the cycle, the current valuation is the floor; if storage ultimately cannot escape the fate of sharp rises and falls, the current price is the ceiling. The long-term contract locks in revenue but cannot lock in market doubts.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the same picture: Xiaomi supports growth with cars but losses persist; SK Hynix’s 40 trillion won buyback declares AI dividends are returning to shareholders; SanDisk’s long-term contract story faces market foot voting—the cyclical fate of storage has not been completely rewritten. When new narratives collide head-on with old cycles—the market is pricing the second half of 2026 in the most divided way. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡
#闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？
The robot hasn't learned to work yet, but the market value has already soared.
The connection to the crypto world isn't about Yushi itself, but about the market sentiment it reflects. The fact that the A-share market can value a loss-making robot company at 440 billion yuan shows that global capital is extremely tolerant in pricing the AI+hardware sector. This sentiment will spill over to US tech stocks and then transmit to the AI sector and DePIN segment in the crypto market. It's not a direct benefit, but an indirect emotional support. When the market shows an unexpectedly high tolerance for high valuations and long-cycle projects, the risk appetite in the crypto market will also rise accordingly.
Here’s my view. This surge in Yushi is driven by sentiment and scarcity in the short term, not fundamentals. The opening price jumped sixfold, and all the momentum traders who should enter have done so. Whether this market cap can hold depends on whether it can really sell robots and generate profits, rather than just lying in the lab.
For crypto traders, the significance of this signal is that the market's tolerance for high-growth, long-cycle, high-valuation stories remains very high. But don’t chase the highs just because of this; there is a whole industrial chain gap between the AI robot concept and large-scale implementation.
What do you think?
$BTC $SNDK $ETH Currently, there is no particularly obvious new narrative in the entire crypto space, but the AI Agent payment line has already seen many people quietly building. In my view, the emergence of payment demand by Agents is almost an inevitable event. Because once an AI Agent moves from "answering questions" to "doing things on behalf of people," it needs to purchase data, call models, use computing power, rent storage, and even pay other Agents to work. As soon as Agents truly start working, payment is no longer just a luxury but a necessary infrastructure to be established. However, one point must be clarified first: the fact that Agents will generate payment demand does not mean that any particular protocol will definitely win, nor does it mean that all tokens associated with the Agent concept will rise. So today, my research on AI Agent payments is not to write another popular science article. Such content is abundant online. What I really want to find out is: which projects are currently building Agent payments? Do they have real revenue? And finally, what opportunities are relevant to you and me? Before starting, a brief introduction to Agent payments: An AI Agent can be simply understood as software capable of breaking down tasks, calling tools, and completing things on its own. The payment system did not create AI Agents; it just allows Agents to gradually evolve from "tools that can only work" into participants that can buy services, earn money, and manage funds. We are moving from "humans paying for AI to work" to "AI taking the budget given by humans and independently purchasing services from other AIs or services" $BTC $ETH What really needs to be watched tonight is not "whether the Fed will cut rates," but rather—how hawkish the minutes actually are.
At 2:00 AM, the Fed will release the minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.
The market has already priced in some "hawkish expectations" in advance, so the key tonight is not just the interest rate itself, but three things:
1️⃣ How strong is the internal support for rate hikes?
If the minutes show that more officials are worried about inflation and even believe further rate hikes are needed, the market will reprice the September policy.
→ U.S. Treasury yields rise
→ U.S. dollar strengthens
→ BTC and Nasdaq come under pressure
→ High-valuation tech/chip stocks likely to see a rise and then fall
2️⃣ Is there a clear shift to hawkishness in inflation assessment?
If the Fed believes factors like oil prices, tariffs, and AI investment could push inflation back up, then "rate cut expectations" will continue to be suppressed.
Conversely, if the minutes emphasize risks to employment and economic growth, indicating internal concerns about economic slowdown, the market might interpret this as dovish.
3️⃣ How much has the market already priced in?
This is the most important.
Currently, concerns about a September rate hike have clearly increased, but recent weak economic data have reduced some rate hike expectations. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen from highs, and gold has surged today, indicating that funds have begun to bet in advance that "the Fed may not continue to tighten significantly." (Reuters)
So tonight, don’t simply interpret it as:
"Hawkish = down, Dovish = up."
What really matters is:
The actual content of the minutes VS current market expectations.
If the minutes are just "expected hawkish," BTC and U.S. stocks may fall first then rebound.
If they are clearly more hawkish than expected, then beware of a real risk release.
If the minutes are clearly dovish, then we might see:
Dollar ↓
U.S. Treasury yields ↓
Gold ↑
BTC ↑
Nasdaq/Tech stocks ↑
Especially BTC, which is currently oscillating near a critical level and may experience a round of spikes up and down before choosing a direction tonight.
#Fed #FOMC #Bitcoin #BTC #USStocks #Gold #USTreasuries #Cryptocurrency The simultaneous occurrence of a pullback in US AI stocks and SK Hynix's buyback means $BTC is being priced into a larger "risk appetite map."
On August 19, the pre-market status of US stocks was subtle: Dow futures slightly up, S&P slightly fluctuating, Nasdaq weak, with investors awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting minutes; after a prior pullback in AI hardware, SK Hynix attracted attention again due to a large-scale buyback. Meanwhile, $BTC hovered around $64,400. Looking at these together, it becomes clear that BTC is no longer just an asset within the crypto circle but a piece in the global risk appetite map.
In the past, BTC's price was mostly determined internally within the crypto space: exchange funds, leverage, miners, on-chain activity, retail sentiment. Now it's different. Whether AI stocks rise or fall, how long-term bond yields move, whether oil prices surge, retail earnings reports, tech stock crowding, or whether Korean semiconductor stocks rebound—all these influence BTC through risk appetite and capital flows. Although it is a decentralized asset, the money trading it increasingly comes from centralized financial systems.
The impact of the US AI stock pullback on BTC is not linear. If AI stocks plunge, risk asset sentiment declines, and BTC will face short-term pressure; but if AI bubble concerns push funds to seek non-corporate assets, BTC might be reconsidered. Unlike AI stocks, BTC has no revenue, profit, or capital expenditure, nor does it need to prove data center investment returns. Its logic is simpler: fixed supply, non-sovereign, globally liquid.
But this simplicity comes at a cost. When risk appetite falls, the market won't immediately treat BTC as insurance; it might be sold off alongside other assets. Especially when US Treasury yields are high and cash yields returns, funds will first reduce exposure to high-volatility assets. For BTC to decouple from AI stocks, it needs to prove its buying is not just pure risk appetite but a long-term allocation demand.
SK Hynix buyback, AI storage rebound, and US tech stock divergence all remind the market: funds are not leaving risk assets but are reselecting risk. Recently, everyone crowded into AI hardware; now the market is starting to scrutinize who has profits, buybacks, cash flow, and pricing power. BTC must also face this scrutiny: can it be treated as an allocation amid macro uncertainty rather than just fluctuating with tech stocks?
Therefore, when writing about BTC today, it should be viewed within the broader US stock context. $BTC around $64,400 is not an isolated price but the result of global capital reallocating among AI, bonds, gold, cash, energy, and crypto. To shed the "high beta tech stock" label, it must remain resilient during tech stock pullbacks, show support when macro risks rise, and find more stable demand in ETFs and long-term funds.
The more institutional BTC becomes, the more it must be compared within a larger asset map. It is no longer just a crypto sentiment gauge but a cross-asset of risk appetite, interest rates, politics, and sovereign credit. This identity is harder to trade but also more important. U.S. diesel crack spreads have historically surged past $100/barrel, completely breaking records. The normal range in previous years was only $20–40, but this time it jumped directly to triple digits.
Key distinction: this is not a crude oil price increase, but a surge in refining margins. The core reason is a severe global shortage of refined oil supply: geopolitical instability in the Middle East, rising shipping risks, combined with insufficient global refinery operations, and the current autumn harvest season's concentrated use of agricultural machinery fuel. Multiple factors resonate, directly triggering the diesel supply-demand gap.
Diesel is a rigid demand across the entire industry chain, covering logistics transportation, industrial production, and agricultural cultivation. Diesel price increases will transmit layer by layer, pushing up freight costs, grain prices, and commodity production costs, causing energy inflation pressures to rise again.
This will continue to push up U.S. Treasury yields, indirectly suppressing U.S. stock and crypto market valuations. It will not cause an extreme single-day crash but is a medium- to long-term hidden macro downside risk that slowly ferments.
Trading cannot focus solely on market price fluctuations; macro variables must be tracked simultaneously. In the energy inflation warming cycle, market tolerance for errors decreases, so it is essential to control positions in advance and maintain sufficient risk buffers, rather than simply indulging in short-term volatility. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 #闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧
SanDisk completed a full emotional cycle in two days: it just rose 8.9% on August 17, then closed down 9.01% at $1625.78 on the 18th, once dropping 10.4% intraday. But zooming out, it is still 20.9% higher than the $1344.29 investors saw the day before. This cut only trimmed some excitement; it does not mean the valuation has been reset.
Micron fell 7%, Western Digital dropped 7.4%, Hynix ADR declined 9.2%, while the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.33% in the same period. Clearly, the entire high-valuation trade was hit first; AI storage demand did not vanish overnight. Also, SanDisk's $93.9 billion long-term contract value is calculated at the floor price and is not yet realized profit.
I won’t rush to buy on this kind of candlestick. I’ll keep my original position and not add new funds; whether $1600 holds is just an emotional threshold. What would really make me increase my position is if next quarter’s revenue holds at least $10.3 billion and the non-GAAP gross margin remains above 83%. Otherwise, the long-term contract only extends the story without locking in profits.
The drop shows how strong the sentiment is; the earnings report tells you if it’s worth it. $SNDK $MU $SKHY MU｜$927, storage sector celebrating together, what MU lacks now is a confirmed breakout
MU is currently around $927, right at a key previous resistance area. Recently, storage stocks have collectively strengthened, driven by AI data center demand, tight storage supply, and U.S. policy expectations restricting Chinese storage suppliers, all reinforcing market optimism toward U.S. storage manufacturers.
From a trading perspective, $927 is a critical test: if it breaks out with volume and holds, it could open a new upward move; but if it fails to break through, profit-taking after consecutive gains could quickly follow.
Now, trading MU is not just about performance, but whether the AI storage boom cycle can continue. $MU
Do you think MU can break through $927 and keep strengthening, or will there be a high-level shakeout first?
#MU #Micron #AI #USStockTrading$SNDK plummeted more than 9% in a single day yesterday, a move more extreme than most altcoins, no wonder no one is playing with coins anymore
I think this big drop is not because SanDisk is no longer profitable, but because the market thinks it "isn't rising fast enough."
1. Explosive earnings but conservative guidance: revenue surged 372%, but next quarter's guidance didn't satisfy Wall Street's "greedy appetite," causing a stampede of capital fleeing immediately.
2. Price hike pedal can't be pushed: although prices are still rising, the pace has clearly slowed, and consumer sectors like mobile phones and computers can't bear the high prices anymore.
3. Giants frantically expanding production: everyone is pouring money into building new factories, and the market worries about future overcapacity leading to price wars.
Don't blindly bottom-fish in the short term; high-priced stocks are prone to getting hammered. This adjustment is squeezing out bubbles; pure concept-driven speculation will be eliminated, and the real opportunity is when companies with solid fundamentals drop. #闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 What signal does U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent's sudden "rescue" signal signal for the market? During this sensitive macroeconomic period, Becent's rescue seems like such a "coincidence." Just now, the U.S. Treasury officially announced that starting September 9, 2026, it will expand the scale of single bond purchases, increasing from the original $2 billion to even $4 billion. This policy covers 10-, 20-, and 30-year Treasuries. Simply put, the Treasury is increasing the scale of single bond purchases, adjusting the market supply of long-term medium- and long-term bonds and suppressing yields. After the news was announced, the US dollar weakened, long-term bond yields weakened, gold strengthened, and risk markets, especially high-beta asset yields, rose. This is considered an "event positive," and whether it can turn into policy positive remains to be watched. 1. Short-term increase in bond purchases is a way to release marginal liquidity for risk markets. Although different from conventional QE, it benefits risk sub-assets. However, this is only a single event boost, considering the huge scale of U.S. Treasury bonds. Raising a single repurchase from 2 billion to 4 billion is still just a drop in the bucket. The key issue here is whether the Treasury Department considers the 5.3% 30-year Treasury yield a sensitive red line, and that is the greatest significance of this matter. If the 30-year long-term bond yield continues to trigger this rule after reaching 5.3%, it will shift from an event-driven positive to a policy benefit, which is the most direct positive for the financial market. 3. If the government expands long-term bond buybacks + reduces long-term bond issuance + increases Bills financing in the future, it can create medium- to long-term liquidity benefits. So the 30-year long-term bond will be observed going forwardSanDisk is becoming an interesting one to watch because the debate now seems to be less about whether storage demand will grow and more about how much of that growth is already reflected in the valuation.
I can understand both sides. On one hand, AI infrastructure, data centers and cloud workloads are creating huge amounts of data, which should naturally support demand for storage. If that continues, SanDisk could benefit from a much bigger structural trend rather than just another short memory cycle.
But personally, this is where I start becoming a little more careful. A great business trend doesn’t always mean a great entry at any price. If expectations become too aggressive, even strong earnings can disappoint simply because the market wanted more.
So for me, SanDisk is currently a battle between AI/storage growth potential and valuation expectations. I’m still positive on the long-term need for storage, but I’d rather watch whether earnings and margins can catch up with the optimism before getting too excited.
#SandiskValuationSplit $SNDK ⚡The US Treasury yield curve has "flattened," has the liquidity window for BTC really opened?
After the US Treasury launched a repurchase-related plan, the US Treasury yield curve has clearly flattened: long-term rates have fallen, but short-term rates remain firm.
On the surface, this is a signal somewhat favorable to risk assets. The repurchase operation releases liquidity and lowers long-term financing costs, which theoretically provides some support for BTC and ETH.
But there is an "other side" that cannot be ignored 👇
If the market interprets the curve flattening as the Fed possibly maintaining high interest rates for a longer time, risk appetite might actually be suppressed again.
So in the short term, I think $BTC and $ETH are somewhat bullish, but the strength is limited.
BTC is currently around $64,500, the rebound window still exists, but $65,000 is a key resistance level. Whether it can truly break through will determine if this rebound is just a short-term correction.
Tonight's 20-year Treasury auction + FOMC minutes are the real stress test.
📌 If Treasury demand is weak + the minutes are hawkish, today's liquidity boost may be quickly offset.
📌 If long-term rates continue to fall + market sentiment improves, after BTC breaks $65K, ETH may further follow.
The most important thing now is not to chase the rally, but to observe where the macro "triple hammer" lands.
So: watch more, act less, and wait for the market to give a real direction. 👀📊
#DailyOrbit SanDisk (SanDisk / SNDK)
SanDisk's short-term trend still needs to be observed. Regarding the short position I mentioned before, I honestly admit that it was a failed trade; I won't turn around and say "See, I told you it would drop."
If you still hold this position now, I suggest waiting a bit longer. After all, it has been open for quite some time. You can set 1400 as a level to watch, which appears to be a short-term support level.
However, it’s also possible that it will rise back up, so be cautious and don’t let your guard down.
On the news front, the trigger for this wave of memory stock sell-off was the earnings guidance from competitor Hynix falling short of expectations, which pressured the entire storage sector and dragged SanDisk down as well. But on the same day, Hynix announced the largest shareholder return plan in its history in the evening. This kind of storage manufacturer stabilizing stock prices through shareholder return programs is a tactic SanDisk has used before.
SanDisk’s stock price once surged to $2300 in June but dropped to about $1015 in early July. It was only through the long-term guidance and shareholder return commitments given on the 8/13 investor day that it rebounded for three consecutive days and turned around. So this script of storage stocks "falling deeply first, then rebounding on substantial positive news" is not unfamiliar.The four-hour period in the evening is more like the "pricing shift period" of the day: the handover of European and American funds, derivative portfolio adjustments, triggered liquidations, and thinning liquidity overlap, amplifying volatility, and profits often concentrate during this time. In the past 42 samples, BTC's single 4-hour candlestick from 20:00 to 24:00 averaged about +0.17% with a 64.3% chance of rising; $ETH averaged about +0.32% with a 57.1% chance of rising. During the same active period, the two give two different answers.
BTC has a higher win rate but less elasticity, acting more like a directional anchor: it first raises the probability of "whether it will rise," but does not push further. ETH has a slightly lower win rate but a higher average, acting more like an elasticity amplifier: it contributes excess when the direction is right, but also suffers heavier pullbacks when the direction is wrong. The so-called division of labor is not that ETH is stronger, but that it translates the same evening liquidity into larger profit and loss amplitude.
However, 42 samples are not enough to canonize, and the average can be pushed by a few extreme candlesticks. The period truly suitable is not chasing the first volume surge, but waiting for a breakout followed by a pullback confirmation, lowering leverage, and accepting missing out. The advantage of the evening belongs to those who can distinguish "volatility" from "trend": $BTC gives probability, ETH gives elasticity, and your position size determines which one you get.The $16 billion long-term bond auction collides with the Fed minutes: U.S. Treasuries face their most sensitive moment, how will global assets be set tomorrow at dawn?
The liquidity nerves of the global capital markets are being pushed to the most tense cliff edge this week.
Tomorrow at dawn, the global macro market will face an intense bombardment of two major consecutive events—the U.S. Treasury will officially conduct a $16 billion ultra-long-term Treasury reissuance auction; immediately following, the Federal Reserve will release the highly anticipated July monetary policy meeting minutes.
With long-term U.S. Treasury yields soaring to their highest levels since 2007 and international oil prices approaching the $90 mark, these two decisive battles will directly determine the short-term survival of global liquidity.
Why does a $16 billion long-term bond auction make all of Wall Street and the crypto community so wary?
The answer lies in the "tail liquidation risk" caused by the supply-demand imbalance of U.S. Treasuries.
As the U.S. fiscal deficit continues to hit record highs, the supply peak of ultra-long-term Treasuries has overwhelmed primary dealers. Against the backdrop of stubbornly high 30-year Treasury yields above 5.2%, if overseas sovereign central banks and commercial institutions show weak bid-to-cover ratios, and the auction exhibits a significant "tail spread," primary market makers will be forced to pay out of pocket to absorb unsold bonds.
This supply-side indigestion can instantly trigger a secondary yield spike, further pushing up the global risk-free discount rate, ruthlessly squeezing global tech stocks and high-beta crypto assets that have just endured a semiconductor bloodbath.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s July meeting minutes are the key gauge for measuring the interest rate policy balance.
The market is eager to find two core clues between the lines of this minutes: How deep are the internal Fed divisions over labor market cooling and inflation resilience? On the eve of the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium, have policymakers left enough flexibility for the upcoming rate cut path?
If the minutes express concerns about a resurgence of secondary inflation or greater patience in maintaining high rates, the bulls’ rate cut illusions will be harshly dashed; conversely, if the minutes confirm a policy pivot window, gold, Bitcoin, and equity assets long suppressed by high rates will see a retaliatory liquidity release rebound.
The long-term auction sets supply, the Fed minutes set expectations. In the countdown to this dual macro storm, any one-sided bet faces intense two-way shakeout risks.
With the $16 billion long-term bond auction and Fed minutes arriving back-to-back tomorrow at dawn, do you think Treasury yields will surge and break through, triggering a new round of asset sell-offs, or will the bad news be fully priced in, leading to a major liquidity rebound? On the eve of the decisive battle, will you choose to stay out and watch, or preemptively position for volatility opportunities?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 On August 19, Marvell Technology's stock price showed significant fluctuations, with market attention focused on its custom chip agreement with Google and the company's continued position in AI data center semiconductors. Although the agreement was signed on July 29, 2026, recent market attention to the AI custom chip (ASIC) ecosystem has continued to rise, and as one of the core suppliers, Mywell's strategic value has been repriced. 1. Reaching a custom chip agreement with Google, deeply binding the TPU ecosystem According to previously disclosed information, Mywell Technology has signed a business agreement with Google to develop custom semiconductor products for Google and further expand Google's TPU ecosystem. The protocol covers a wide range of products, including key components such as AI inference accelerators, storage controllers, and network interface controllers. This means Mywell not only participates in the custom development of Google's TPU-related chips but also provides supporting solutions at the data center storage and network interconnection layers. For Google, expanding the TPU ecosystem requires more efficient and specialized chip designs; For Mywell, deeply binding with Google, a hyperscale cloud provider, helps secure long-term orders and strengthens its position in AI data center semiconductors. 2. Warrant Details: Clear Signal of Google's Long-Term Cooperation As part of the agreement, Mywell Technology issued a warrant to Google, allowing Google to purchase up to 58,970,907 shares of Mywell stock at an exercise price of $206.58 per share. 【Crypto Circle's "Bear Bottom Pancake Stall" Is Open for Business! Why Must the True Bottom Be a Flat Bottom?】
Still nervous about Bitcoin's up-and-down swings? The chef reveals: the true bear market bottom is never just a quick dip and bounce; it must be ground into an extremely low-volatility "flat bottom."
1. Sharp drops are just side dishes; the long-term trend is the main course. Sharp drops are like a spatula, only able to scrape off the overinflated high leverage; but steadfast long-term holders (LTH) are like the sticky "old crust" at the bottom of the pan—impossible to scrape off. The true bottom requires time to grind down until turnover hits freezing point, the SOPR index stays below 1 for a long time, and the batter is spread evenly in the pan, becoming a calm "big pancake."
2. Extreme low volatility is the calm before the explosion. Selling pressure clears out, buying reaches a fragile balance, volatility compresses to the extreme, waiting quietly for a turnaround.
Look at the current market—the batter hasn't been spread evenly yet! The true bottom is very likely still below $50,000. Before that, the chef still needs to vigorously flip the pan once more (the ultimate plunge)!
The plunge brings panic; the flat bottom reveals the true bottom. Don't rush to bottom-fish; patiently wait for the chef to finish flipping the pan and spreading the pancake—that's the safest entry signal! [Bear Market Bottom Fishing] Bitcoin rebounds to the "cheap zone," is it still possible to add positions? Last week, I posted that Bitcoin fell into a very cheap zone, which is a bottom signal with a 100% success rate, with a 1-2 year holding increase of over 3.7 times. This week, Bitcoin rebounded to above 65,000, surpassing the 200-week moving average (63,000), placing it in the cheap zone. Historical backtesting also shows this is a region for phased dollar-cost averaging, with a 90% success rate for holding 1-2 years. However—
In a bear market, investors still need to endure prolonged floating losses and sideways consolidation at the end of the bear.
Therefore, the very cheap zone (below the 200-week moving average) is always the most cost-effective, with limited downside space and huge profit potential, providing a thicker safety cushion. For those seeking stability, you can still patiently wait for a pullback to the very cheap zone for dollar-cost averaging or phased bottom fishing.
The time window for adding positions is at the small cycle bottom around the end of August or the large cycle bottom around September to October.
This chart is continuously updated and does not constitute trading advice.Canada's tariff delay by three days seems unrelated to $BTC, but it actually serves as a reminder to the market: political inflation will never disappear.
Today, Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on certain Canadian imports, and the market treated it as trade negotiation news. On the surface, this seems unrelated to $BTC. But if you look at tariffs, oil prices, US Treasury yields, inflation, and the Federal Reserve together, you'll find they all point to the same issue: politics itself is becoming a source of inflation and market volatility.
Tariffs are not ordinary price changes; they are policy-driven costs. Imposing tariffs on imports affects corporate profits, consumer prices, supply chain arrangements, and also alters relationships between trade partners. In the short term, if negotiations ease, the market will breathe a sigh of relief; but as long as the tariff tool remains, companies must face policy uncertainty. No one knows if the next round of negotiations, the next product, or the next election will cause costs to rise again.
This is very important for the long-term logic of $BTC. BTC is not simply a hedge against CPI numbers; it is more like a hedge against policy unpredictability. Monetary policy changes, trade policy changes, fiscal policy changes, regulatory policy changes—all happen. Modern markets increasingly have prices shaped not by natural supply and demand but by political negotiations, tariffs, subsidies, sanctions, and industrial policies together. BTC offers an asset whose supply rules are not directly rewritten by these policies.
Of course, tariff news won't cause BTC to surge immediately. In fact, if tariffs push inflation higher, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates, BTC may face short-term pressure. High inflation and high interest rates together are uncomfortable for risk assets. But in the long run, tariffs remind the market: inflation is not just a monetary issue, it is also a political issue; the more frequent political inflation is, the more fixed-rule assets will be reconsidered.
This is the difference between BTC and traditional assets. Stocks face the impact of tariffs on profits, bonds face inflation and interest rates, cash faces purchasing power, gold is a traditional defensive asset. BTC is a new generation expression of policy uncertainty. It does not guarantee short-term stability, but its supply rules do not change because of Trump, Congress, the Fed, or trade negotiations.
Today, BTC is around $64,400, and the market has not fully priced in tariffs as political inflation. But long-term investors look further: if future trade policies increasingly change cost structures, if fiscal and industrial policies rely more on subsidies and tariffs, if monetary policy is pulled by political goals, then BTC's fixed rules will stand out more.
The three-day tariff delay is just news; political inflation is the trend. $BTC is not really selling "resilience today," but rather "in a world where rules are constantly rewritten by politics, is there an asset whose rules are not rewritten by politics?" This question will become increasingly valuable in the future. $ASTER (1H) – Local Support Test
Bias: LONG
Entry Zone: 0.5980 – 0.6010
Stop Loss: 0.5930
TP1: 0.6050
TP2: 0.6120
TP3: 0.6200
Why this setup:
Price is consolidating above recent low support around 0.5990 while holding near the moving averages. Looking for a push back toward recent local range highs.
NFA – Educational purposes only.
#SKHynix40TBuyback The most important thing to watch in this round is not which coin is rising, but where the money is coming from. BlackRock, Franklin, and Fidelity are all launching funds on the blockchain, and the way traditional capital enters the market has shifted from "buying coins" to "issuing coins." This pivot is more important than any candlestick chart. Are you watching the price or these developments? $ETH After the Uniswap v4 fee toggle debate, LPs face up to a 25% fee cut. Interestingly, many people are still providing liquidity on Uni—not because they don't understand, but because there are few alternatives—there are only a handful of DEXs. The cost of monopoly is always silently borne by the users. $UNI $BTC is now at 64,400, with a 24-hour fluctuation just over 1%. Looks boring, and many people are stuck in the range.
Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of nearly $390 million last week, with Fidelity and ARKB both pulling out. But the price didn't crash because futures shorts were hunted down, and the liquidation orders supported the price.
Shorts have been covered, so who will take the second leg?
At 2 AM tomorrow, the FOMC minutes will be released, and on September 15, the "Clear Act" vote will take place. Big money won't move until these two events are settled.
Jane Street disclosed holding $990 million in $BTC ETFs, with $800 million invested in IBIT. This signals that traditional finance is treating BTC as a portfolio asset, but quantitative strategies mainly focus on arbitrage hedging, which doesn't mean a short-term bullish outlook.
My judgment: continue to range between 64,000-65,500. Only a volume breakout above 65,800 will mean bulls regain control; a drop below 62,800 will test faith. Don't rush to position now; in this market, saving bullets is more important than guessing wildly!
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 The most ironic scene: The Trump family obtains a banking license to issue stablecoins themselves, BlackRock puts government bonds on the blockchain, and traditional finance rushes into crypto overnight. The group that once shouted "decentralize to kill banks" is now building infrastructure for banks. $MSTR Stablecoins now manage tens of billions in reserves, and BlackRock's new fund is helping them earn yield. Have you thought about it: in the future, stablecoins' competitiveness won't be about "stable pegging" but about "yield-generating reserves." The battle between USDC and USDT will shift from transfer fees to yield rates. $ETH SpaceX
SpaceX is relatively difficult to trade in the short term because it is still very sensitive to news. Moreover, it is still hard to say whether the shareholders from before the IPO will sell their shares and to what extent, so short-term trading is not recommended.
For the long term, I still maintain my previous view that it is suitable for regular, gradual investment.
Regarding news, SpaceX's stock price has clearly been under pressure these days for two main reasons: First, New York University professor Scott Galloway publicly called it "severely overvalued," believing the fair stock price is only between $10 and $30, which implies a potential drop of over 90% compared to the current price. This comment caused the stock price to plunge more than 4% intraday.
Second, a new batch of about 319 million insider shares will be unlocked on 8/20, with a market value of approximately $45.4 billion, exceeding the trading volume of more than three days. Such a large unlocking wave indeed tends to bring substantial selling pressure. However, at the same time, mainstream Wall Street opinions remain optimistic, with most tracked analysts maintaining a buy rating and an average target price around $226 to $232, far above the current price. This shows that the market has significant divergence regarding the company's long-term value. The short-term volatility is mainly driven by the unlocking wave and valuation disputes.Altseason Index hit a new high for the year, and the group chat started shouting that the altcoin season is back. But looking at the data: only a few are rising, the vast majority are still weak. This kind of "index hitting new highs but breadth collapsing" is the most misleading—you think it's a full bull market, but it's actually just a show by a few coins. $SOL The SEC is holding back on tokenization exemptions, but BlackRock is launching funds on ETH like crazy. Have you realized this: when it comes to compliance, big institutions carve their own paths, while small projects wait for that license. By the time they get it, it's often too late. $ETH RWA's total market cap has increased by 200% in one year, breaking 30 billion dollars. But there's a detail most people haven't noticed: BlackRock's 2024 BUIDL fund is now 2.6 billion, mainly used for lending collateral in the crypto market. On-chain government bonds have long ceased to be just a concept; they are the ammunition for off-chain leverage. $ETH One of the most important macro events tonight is the Federal Reserve's release of the minutes from the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.
Let's start with a number: the July meeting ultimately maintained the interest rate at 3.50%–3.75% with a 9-3 vote, but three officials—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—directly called for a 25 basis point rate hike.
In short:
The Fed did not raise rates in the end, but some insiders already feel that "not raising now could make inflation harder to control later."
There are three key questions to watch in tonight's minutes:
How many officials are worried about inflation? How many support continuing rate hikes? And how many believe the current rates are already high enough?
However, there is a caveat.
These minutes reflect the Fed at the end of July. Since then, the U.S. has released data showing weakening employment, moderate inflation, and declining retail sales. The market now prices in nearly a 70% chance of no rate hike in September.
So even if the minutes lean hawkish tonight, it should not be mechanically interpreted as:
"The probability of a rate hike in September will immediately surge."
What I am more focused on is whether only three Fed members are hawkish, or if the entire committee is actually more concerned about inflation than the market expects.
That answer will truly influence the next moves of the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and BTC. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
Xiaomi $XIAOMI delivered a Q2 report card of "revenue under pressure, profits exceeding expectations," with revenue of ¥108.9 billion, down 6.1% year-on-year, and net profit of ¥9.46 billion, but adjusted net profit plunged 42.6% year-on-year. Rising storage costs continue to squeeze the gross margins of phones and cars, but AI, IoT, and automotive sectors are still expanding. Short-term profit pressure is evident, while the mid-to-long-term outlook for AI + automotive ecosystem still holds potential. Overall assessment: cautious in the short term, still worth watching in the mid to long term. $CORE and Maple have reached a settlement in their lawsuit, clearing the risk of $150 million in asset redemption and long-term legal disputes. This cuts off the early-stage extensive staking chain that relied on high inflation subsidies, prompting a shift in capital positions from panic defense to a revaluation of the protocol's self-built ecosystem. If subsequently SatPay and independent asset management truly take over the deposited liquidity, risk appetite will drive valuation recovery; otherwise, short-term settlement chip liquidity may intensify selling pressure. Next, observe the actual scale of on-chain deposited funds and the real TVL changes of new businesses.
#黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值Wang Yi's pawn line has not yet crossed the river, but I have already seen the forcing move in the endgame. Metaplanet's move is not about contesting the center, but about exchanging 2100 BTC and 2.5 million cash for absolute control of the newly issued Super League securities—95.7% voting rights and 93.6% economic rights. The company will be renamed Superplanet, the Nasdaq clock will continue to run as usual, but the owner of the board has already switched to a different set of strategies.
This is not a sacrifice, but a transitional move before the pawn reaches the baseline. Anyone claiming "this is not a BTC sale" is only covering up the same fact: treating BTC as a pawn that pulls the opponent's elephant's trunk, pushing it to the listing platform's baseline. The goal is not a one-time redemption, but to make this platform a factory for future BTC accumulation. In the middle game, the difference in pieces is not important; what matters is the pawn structure—whether you can establish a permanent foothold on the opponent's king side.
But every sacrifice implies a two-move checkmate. The 95.7% voting rights secure the throne after castling, but the 93.6% economic rights mean minority shareholders become isolated pawns on your board. An isolated pawn is not a weakness unless it stands on the opponent's half-open file. The dividends and redemption terms of those preferred shares are such half-open files. They won't trigger at the opening but will narrow in the endgame until you are forced to exchange two pawns for a knight—that moment, BTC per share is just the empty step left after the exchange ratio is deducted.
A grandmaster calculates not how many moves it takes to break through, but the redemption order after twenty moves. If low-cost financing can increase BTC per share, then the pawn chain is connected, and the endgame is invincible. But if preferred shares are issued to repay past commitments to maintain the listing platform's glass crown, the promotion channel will reverse into an invasion channel. BTC per share is the net piece value at the endgame, not a shiny queen on the middle game ledger. Time on the board is like the chess clock: low cost is remaining time, expensive preferred shares are the reserves consumed with every tick of the second hand. The earlier you enter the middle game, the more you must watch your clock—there is no comeback time in the endgame.
Metaplanet thinks it is playing a knight to control the center. But to a true player, this is just pushing the king side pawn one square, leaving a weak square on the king side. The pawn formation built with 2100 BTC can indeed be imposing in the center of the board, but once the enemy chooses to ignore your attack and instead targets your rear pawn chain, you will find that the platform born for promotion actually blocks the other pawn you want to protect.
The winning move in this game is not on Superplanet's clock face, but whether Metaplanet dares to treat BTC as a pawn that never turns back. You calculated the checkmate twenty moves ahead, but you cannot calculate whether the opponent will still be sitting at the board twenty moves later. When the clock reaches a certain move, the quietest checkmate often comes from the edge pawn you have long forgotten—it crawled out from the bottom of your pawn factory and completed the entire endgame for the opponent. #metaplanet2100btcdealData doesn't lie: The entire network stubbornly holding shorts is my strongest reason to firmly go long
Recently, the entire crypto community's sentiment is extremely divided, with a visible sense of tearing.
I've scoured the planet, communities, and market data, and it's very clear: the vast majority of retail investors are shorting against the trend, while I have been holding long positions along the trend throughout.
Many rely on feelings, low volume, or subjective pullback expectations to open shorts, while I make decisions based on market capital flow, liquidation data, and position structure. These two are completely different dimensions.
Let's start with the most authentic on-chain & contract data:
First, the 24-hour contract liquidation structure is extremely bearish.
Recently, the market has been oscillating weakly with shrinking volume, many retail traders subjectively judge "if it can't rise, it must fall," and heavily set up ETH and BTC short positions.
But the real data shows: recent liquidations are overwhelmingly dominated by shorts; in the short term, any slight rise will always trigger the crowded short positions first.
The most dangerous positions in the market now are the most common in the community: over 20x leveraged shorts without stop-losses, stubbornly holding on.
I've seen many user position reveals, all the same:
After opening shorts, the market slightly rebounds, originally planned to stop loss near 1930, luckily not triggered, avoiding liquidation, so they comfort themselves "holding the position was correct."
This is the biggest trading illusion in the entire market.
This time it's not technicals beating the market, purely luck extending life.
High-leverage counter-trend shorts without stop-losses are not trading, they are naked gambling.
Second, the entire network's short positions continue to accumulate, with counter-trend crowding reaching a short-term high.
The more the market moves sideways, grinds, and doesn't fall, the more aggressively shorts open.
Retail logic is very unified: low volume = weakness = must pull back.
But the iron law of the contract market never changes:
Crowded consensus expectations are always meant to be counterattacked.
The current situation is very clear:
There are almost no concentrated long liquidations below, while a large amount of passive short liquidation positions accumulate above.
Once the market slightly breaks out of the range, a short squeeze will instantly trigger a chain of liquidations, and short stop-loss orders will directly help push longs up, creating positive acceleration.
This is also the core data logic behind my confidence to go long and hold long, not emotion but position structure.
Third, fundamental institutional data completely does not support the current retail bearish logic.
Recently, a major milestone: Citi officially launched BTC native custody services.
As a top global investment bank, this is not short-term hype but the landing of traditional finance's underlying infrastructure.
Data-wise, this is very critical:
Wall Street institutional custody scale, spot holding willingness, and long-term allocation channels are all steadily expanding.
The so-called "volume-less stagnation" in the market is just a short-term contract market illusion.
Institutional funds have two characteristics:
No high leverage, no short-term contracts, no intraday sentiment speculation.
So the most extreme market split appears:
Institutions steadily build spot bottom positions, while retail frantically open counter-trend top shorts on contracts.
Many people's biggest misunderstanding:
Using short-term low-volume oscillation market to deny the fact of mid-to-long-term institutional capital layout.
Fourth, from sentiment data, currently it is completely a bearish sentiment low point and bullish price bottom.
Current community opinion:
Everyone expects a pullback, everyone waits for a crash, everyone guesses the top.
Very few bullish voices, very few holding longs, even fewer daring to hold trend longs.
Historical data repeatedly proves:
A consensus bearish consolidation bottom is never a starting point for a decline but the eve of a trend launch.
The reason the market grinds, shrinks volume, and repeatedly torments shorts
Is essentially the main force exchanging time for space, washing out all weak floating supply, and exhausting all counter-trend short patience.
Let me share my real holding mindset:
I hold longs, not anxious, not guessing tops, not panicking over oscillations.
Because I understand the data structure:
1. Short-term liquidation data is bearish, shorts under great pressure
2. Network-wide short positions are extremely crowded, with strong short squeeze momentum
3. Institutional infrastructure continues to land, providing very stable bottom support
4. Market sentiment is extremely bearish, with no bull market euphoria at all
All the current sideways torment is for the final directional choice.
Those who now stubbornly hold shorts by luck, avoid stop-losses to dodge liquidations,
Seem to profit from small fluctuations each time,
But in fact, each time they put themselves on the edge of liquidation cliff.
Trading never survives on luck, but on structure, probability, and data.
I firmly go long, not because I am optimistic about bullish sentiment,
But because all observable data, positions, capital, and institutional logic stand on the long side.
Hold patiently, the oscillation will eventually end, and the liquidation of crowded shorts will come sooner or later.$BTC $ETH Tonight's macro news stirs the global market, and the previously calm trading floor finally stirs up waves
BTC is gradually approaching 65600, but no chasing at the high level; preparing to lightly speculate on short-term short positions
BTC: short at 65600‑66000, target 64500‑64000
ETH: short at 1950‑1970, target 1920‑1900 My biggest impression these past two days is: the market doesn't look like a bull market, but it's also becoming less bearish. $BTC now around 65,300, the daily chart has regained above EMA7 and EMA25, MACD has turned positive, KDJ is rising quickly, but above is EMA99 near 66,278. So I see 66,000 as the real watershed. If this is just an emotional rebound, the 66,000 area is very likely to encounter selling pressure again; If it can hold steady with increased volume, the structure will shift from "bottom consolidation" to "trend recovery." Let's first look at 64,000, then below is the real defensive zone between 60,000 and 62,000. $ETH is actually more interesting. 1935 has already regained the daily EMA 99, around 1916, with the previous high of 1982 just ahead. In other words, ETH is now just one door away from 2000. If $BTC holds sideways and $ETH first breaks through 1980–2000, I would interpret it as funds starting to spread from BTC to higher beta, followed by $SOL, $SUI, $HYPE, $ENA, and even some altcoins. But now there's another issue: gold at 4476, Brent crude close to $90. Gold's daily chart is clearly stronger than several medium- and long-term moving averages, and oil prices have climbed back above the EMAs of 7, 25, and 99. This means the market is trading on risk asset repairs while buying inflation and safe havens. Tonight, we still have to wait for the FOMC meeting minutes, and US long-term Treasury yields have just experienced multi-year high pressure, indicating that the macro rope has not loosened (ReuterSummary of the evening session analysis on 2026.8.19
On Wednesday evening, the market was livelier than the previous two days. The top eight cryptocurrencies all closed in the green, which is rare—down 17, but each moved independently. Bitcoin held its ground, altcoins caught a breather, but it's still too early to talk about a reversal.
$ETF data looks unbelievably good—Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a single-day inflow of $297.56 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone contributing $160 million; Ethereum ETFs also performed well, with a net inflow of $71.46 million, more than double Monday's amount. The money is genuinely coming in, but the market feels lifeless and weak.
$BTC is around $64,457 today, up 0.36% in 24 hours. It climbed from 63,200 to 64,600, which sounds decent, but the selling pressure between 64,500-65,000 is like a wall, impossible to break through. The support at 63,500 is holding for now, but just barely.
$ETH is hovering around $1,915, up 0.27%. The $1,920-$1,925 range is full of sell orders, and it lacks the strength to rally independently, relying entirely on Bitcoin's pull. If it can't hold above $1,900, a drop back to $1,850 is highly likely.
$SOL showed some strength today at $76.97, up 1.4%. It finally broke free from the annoying $74-$77 small range, but futures positions are heavy. If it can't hold $74-$75, it will turn downward.
$XRP is still tugging around $1, at $0.9974, up 0.41%. Even with a surge in whale trading volume, it can't recover. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are pressing down from above, making a turnaround difficult.
$DOGE continues to stagnate at $0.07, with Bollinger Bands narrowing to the tightest in three years, forming a straight line—nothing much to say.
$BNB returned to $604, supported by short-term moving averages, but if it can't hold $600, it will likely test support near $550 again.
$ADA, due to the announced hard fork plan, is at $0.174, catching a breath after consecutive drops, but a reversal is still far off. LINK is resting at $9.51; $9.5-$10 is a barrier—if it can't break through, it remains the same.
The most frustrating is the macro environment—30-year US Treasury yields briefly broke 5.33% intraday, hitting a 19-year high. Although it fell back to around 5.19% by the close, the pressure on risk assets remains relentless. Oil prices continue to rise, and inflation expectations are tightly suppressed.
Overall, Bitcoin is rising but altcoins are stagnant—a typical scenario of existing funds clustering. Good ETF data is one thing; whether prices follow is another. In a low-volume, divergent market, chasing highs often leads to standing idle. This market only thunders without rain—what keeps people here? SK Hynix $SKHYNIX has announced a buyback and cancellation of 40 trillion KRW, setting a record in South Korean history.
24.07 million shares, accounting for 3.3% of the total share capital. After the announcement, pre-market trading in US stocks surged over 7%. The company stated plainly—the stock price does not reflect the true value. Q2 revenue was 79 trillion, operating profit 60 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 557%, with net cash on hand around 69 trillion, showing strong confidence.
They also raised the shareholder return ratio from "within 50% of FCF" to "over 50%" for 2025 to 2027. Special dividends are also under consideration, with clearer plans expected when Q3 results are announced.
While buying back shares to distribute cash, they continue to heavily invest in capacity expansion. The 2026 capital expenditure plan is set to reach the latter half of 40 trillion KRW, expanding HBM, advanced packaging, and NAND. Jensen Huang personally wrote "Please produce more" on wafers, pushing production hard. Being able to handle both massive buybacks and expansion simultaneously shows how strong the cash flow driven by AI is.
Compared to Bitcoin $BTC, large-scale buybacks by industry giants indicate that AI hardware companies’ cash flow is strong enough to expand capacity while distributing cash. With storage stocks stabilized, the Nasdaq remains stable, and BTC won’t be dragged down too badly by tech stocks in the short term. However, the fact that giants are using money for buybacks instead of further increasing capital expenditure also shows that concerns about "how long AI investment can keep burning" are turning into concrete actions—this might be more worth pondering for BTC than the earnings reports themselves.
#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 Calm will not last forever, and the most likely breaker of calm is ETH.
From the current sample, BTC's volatility range has narrowed from about 2.03% to 1.42%, while $ETH has narrowed from about 2.60% to 1.98%. Both assets are experiencing typical volatility compression, which is a clear signal that the market has entered a wait-and-see state—both bulls and bears are reluctant to heavily invest before the direction becomes clear, and prices are squeezed into an increasingly narrow range. However, it is worth noting that even with the same compression, ETH's absolute volatility level remains significantly higher than BTC's, and its elasticity advantage has not changed.
This difference is due to the different market structures of the two assets. BTC is increasingly treated as a macro asset for trading, with participants mainly allocating funds for the long term, naturally diluting volatility; ETH holders are more trading-oriented, and the leverage and derivatives activity in the on-chain ecosystem is more active, so the same inflows and outflows of funds are amplified into larger price fluctuations. Therefore, when compression reaches its extreme and volume expands again, ETH often completes the directional choice first and with greater amplitude. For traders, ETH is a leading indicator—its volume breakout or breakdown usually signals the start of a full market cycle.
But ETH's high elasticity is a double-edged sword, with false breakouts occurring more frequently. To truly confirm the overall market trend, one must look at $BTC. BTC's volatility compression is more thorough; once it breaks out of the convergence range with volume, it means the largest and most cautious funds have made their choice, and this breakout is far more reliable than ETH's restlessness. The load-bearing walls have no cracks; it's just that the construction elevator is temporarily stopped. That BlackRock chart—marking Bitcoin's 53% retracement from the October 2025 peak to the June 2026 low as a "cyclical load of perpetual contract deleveraging, spot ETP withdrawals, and balance sheet coin purchase concerns"—is definitely not a foundation failure report in the eyes of a structural engineer. It looks more like wind tunnel test data: the tower sways more under strong winds, but the steel frame still works elastically.
What we in this industry hate most is mistaking "decorative layer peeling" for "main structure collapse." The foundation of the Bitcoin building is cast from the absolute scarcity of 21 million coins; and the digital asset treasury's coin purchases are just the glass curtain wall of the exterior—replaceable, cleanable, even temporarily dusty, but the rebar stress inside the load-bearing shear walls has never exceeded the yield point. The experiment BlackRock did with a ten-year backtest essentially took 1% to 2% of the floor area of a 100-story traditional asset skyscraper and converted it into a cantilevered crypto observation deck. The result shows: the building's wind resistance coefficient (risk-adjusted return) improved, only the maximum displacement at the top floor (drawdown) increased slightly. Isn't this the reinforcement plan architects dream of?
Those trembling at the shadows of USOil and CPI are like owners screaming at a tower crane spinning in an eight-level gale. They forget that true permanent landmarks—like the Empire State Building, like the Burj Khalifa—have all endured countless tests of extreme wind loads. That recent BTCBreaks5MonthDowntrend black line, to me, is just an added auxiliary line on the blueprint. Will institutions migrate back from the high-premium AI-themed land to this raw Bitcoin plot? Don't ask sales; ask the chief structural engineer.
The bonding strength of every masonry unit must be verified with 100,000 cycles of loading. The current 53% amplitude is exactly this digital city's self-calibrating foundation settlement. As for that oil price drill pipe plunging from $141 to $91—it just drilled into deeper rock layers, while Bitcoin's pile foundation has long been embedded in the hardest monetary bedrock on this planet. When others discuss floor height, I measure the bearing capacity of the pile tip load-bearing layer. #blackrockstandsbybtc The short position previously set up at the 973 price level is finally moving in the predicted direction.
During the US stock market close, the asset recorded a drop of about 7%, closing at 940.76. The intraday low dipped to 921, and in the after-hours session, the price further fell to around 932.
At the same time, storage-related assets also plunged nearly 9%, and the semiconductor sector index declined by about 5%.
The pressure also spread to Asian markets, with related sector stocks generally weakening. It is clear that this is not an isolated anomaly of a single asset; the storage sector along with high-valuation tech stocks collectively face a phase of sentiment retreat.
Before this, the stock rose for five consecutive trading days, accumulating gains close to 18%, building up a large amount of profit-taking in the short term. Coupled with rising bond yields, increased energy prices, and external uncertainties, capital began to withdraw from the high-volatility tech sector, making the storage sector a primary direction for cashing out chips.
Below is a summary of key price observation ranges:
930-926 is the first level of support;
If 926 is effectively broken, and the rebound fails to hold above 940, there is a possibility of testing 910 later;
940-950 has already turned into a short-term resistance zone;
Once the price stabilizes again at 955-960, it means the bears’ offensive is weakening;
If the price rallies back to reclaim the 973-980 range, then the entire logic of this short position is invalidated.
I set the final take-profit position at 910, not arbitrarily choosing a round number. This level corresponds exactly to the support zone before this round of upward movement started, and previous trading days also closed near this price, making it a likely area for buying support.
My original trading plan remains unchanged:
Entry at 973, initial stop loss at 985, target take profit at 910, with a potential risk-reward ratio of about 1:5.25.
The current price is around 932, leaving just over twenty points to the target 910. But the closer it gets to the support level, the more important it is to avoid blindly adding to the short position.
For positions already held, the primary task now is not to seek new entry opportunities but to protect the floating profits already realized.
In the subsequent market, if 926 is effectively broken and the rebound cannot climb back above 940, I will continue to hold with a target of 910.
Conversely, if the 926 support holds and the price pushes back near 950, I will not stubbornly wait for the target point and will not allow all the floating profits to be given back.
It is also necessary to pay attention to meeting minutes and corporate earnings disclosures, as such events can quickly drive a rebound in the semiconductor sector.
Therefore, I will not add to this position, and the established trading discipline will not be changed arbitrarily.
The target remains 910; take profits when the opportunity arises; if the trend is not as expected, prioritize protecting existing profits. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #Must-Read for Beginners: Everything You Need Is Here
$CHIP
Grayscale has submitted the Zcash Trust registration documents to the SEC again, marking the fourth time, with the goal still being a listing on the NYSE Arca under the ticker ZCSH. The market's immediate reaction was a short-term spike in ZEC, but what interests me more is the signal behind it—Grayscale's willingness to repeatedly go through compliance processes for a privacy coin indicates that the classification boundaries for crypto assets by US asset managers are loosening, which is far more interesting than the price fluctuations of a single coin.
How does capital view this? It doesn't change the total liquidity but alters the risk preference structure. Moving the Grayscale Trust from OTCQX to an exchange means traditional capital has a new compliant entry point, but this type of capital is usually slow to enter. In the short term, capital won't rush in just because of a revised filing; it's more likely to wait and see until more similar cases are established.
For BTC, this is a footnote to easing regulatory expectations with limited directional impact; ETH follows the overall market, and its elasticity will only increase when risk appetite recovers; SOL is a high-beta asset, and if market sentiment warms up, it usually leads the way. CHIP is currently at $0.03, up 3.93% in 24 hours; it acts more like a sentiment amplifier. Whether it can have an independent run depends on whether the main assets stabilize first. 以太坊形态正逐步走强，但在我眼中，当前价位其实相当危险。📉 比特币依旧强势，上升趋势非常明确，而以太坊却长期横盘，在近半个月里始终徘徊不前，这让我一度不愿承认判断失误。价格在1890附近两次获得支撑，我却迟迟没有离场，可能这次确实是我错了。 情绪一上来就容易上头，我在1917.5又追加了两单，现在只能等待价格站稳1930。如果突破不了，那就把前几单的利润吐回去，认赔离场。😤 以太坊在1950的大区间仍未有效突破，相比比特币明显偏弱。但一旦真正放量突破，以太坊的补涨空间也不会差。眼下我的思路是：先看1930能否站稳，若形态依然不健康，上方极限就在1950，到了这个位置，这单我就认输。 关于止损，我原本设的2000虽然更安全，但以当前仓位计算，到2000将亏损约1000U，几乎吞掉一半本金。最初我只持有5个以太坊，2000止损实际只亏400U，风险可控。现在先等1930确认，再决定是否调整止损位。 这轮上涨我确实没完全看懂，但市场里看不懂的事本就很多，错了就认，没什么好纠结的。耐心等待信号，控制好仓位，比预测方向更重要。 风险提示：加密货币市场波动剧烈，以上内容仅为个人交易思路分享，不SanDisk plummeted 9.01% on Tuesday, closing at $1,625.78. The fundamentals haven't changed; it's the macro environment that shifted.
🔍 Why the drop?
· Long-term bond yields soared: The 30-year US Treasury yield broke above 5.33%, hitting a new high since 2007. With risk-free rates rising, tech stocks that rely on borrowing to fund R&D are naturally the first to be sold off.
· US-Iran conflict pushes oil prices up: Trump stated "no talks with Iran," keeping Brent crude above $91. Rising oil prices and inflation expectations hit high-valuation tech stocks first.
· Short-term surge too large, profit-taking emerges: The stock rose 35 times in a year and jumped 8.88% just on Monday. Normal profit-taking after such a large gain.
· Sector stampede: The five major storage companies all plunged, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.98%. Capital is withdrawing from the entire sector.
This wave is unrelated to fundamentals; it’s purely valuation digestion under the triple pressure of macro interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and short-term overbuying. Mizuho analysts also pointed out that August’s low trading volume and algorithmic trading may have amplified the chip stocks’ decline.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡
#闪迪回落逾9%，存储估值分歧加剧 When AI hardware and Bitcoin both surge, what is the market trading?
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #FederalReserve
Brothers, something worth pondering happened in the US stock market last night.
The seven tech giants collectively fell, Microsoft down 3.04%, Facebook down 3.54%. But the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged nearly 3%, SanDisk rose over 8%, Micron over 4%, Coherent surged 9%.
AI hardware is celebrating, tech giants are pulling back. Funds are rotating, not exiting.
Two things have re-locked the direction for August.
First: The Federal Reserve really might stop raising interest rates.
A recent Reuters survey shows that out of 104 economists, 94 (about 90%) expect no change in September, about 80% bet on rates staying frozen until the end of the year. Goldman Sachs also changed its stance—previously Vice Chairman Kaplan expected a rate hike as early as September, but now considering the latest CPI, PPI, and retail data, they believe there won’t be enough members turning hawkish.
The market’s pricing for a September rate hike has dropped to nearly 30%. Oil prices remain high, but economic data is weakening—July employment unexpectedly decreased, retail sales hit the largest drop in 14 months, these are real signs of slowdown.
Second: Volatility has been compressed to an extreme.
The Glassnode Volatility Trap Index soared to 91 (out of 100), a three-and-a-half-year high, while implied volatility dropped to a historic low 2% range. This indicates the market is extremely compressed; the calm priced by the options market exceeds actual calm.
Fundstrat warns this compression often accompanies about 30% sharp volatility—if down, BTC could fall to 44,000; if up, it could surge to 82,000. The direction is uncertain, but volatility is certain.
However, structurally there are still concerns.
On August 14, BTC showed a rare long-term oversold signal near 63,000. The founder of Fairlead Strategies pointed out this combination historically often precedes major turning points.
Bitcoin remains below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and a descending trendline since June continues to suppress every rebound. The daily MACD is still below its signal line; the market has not confirmed a broader bullish reversal yet.
AIX’s judgment:
The direction leans toward bottoming, but reversal is not yet confirmed. 63,000 is a short-term watershed; if it holds steadily, it could push toward 64,400-65,000; if it breaks down with volume below 62,500, the downside targets 60,000 or even 58,000.
Entry points: Light short positions can be tried if 64,400-65,000 faces resistance, stop loss at 66,000; long positions can be tried if 62,000-62,500 stabilizes, stop loss at 61,000. Direction first looks for consolidation; wait for breakout confirmation before trading the trend.
There are two weeks left in August; volatility won’t stay compressed forever. When the direction emerges, you need to have bullets.
Discuss in the comments: Do you think this compression will break upward or downward?
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysisETHFI rose from 0.36 to 0.52, a 40% increase in one month. Some people made a killing, while others are still waiting to buy the dip at 0.3
Last month it dropped to 0.36, and the market was in panic. But TVL didn’t fall; it actually rose to a historic high of 3.48 billion. Locked assets increased while the price dropped — a clear divergence, smart money is buying the dip
On August 7, Ether.fi spun off 3.3 billion in re-staking business from EigenLayer, causing the market to initially drop. Then the market realized — the risk was removed, fundamentals are cleaner, and it reversed sharply
Now it’s truly different — the Summer update launched, bringing tokenized stocks, fiat deposits and withdrawals, ETHFI automatic buybacks, and cashback on card payments. The CEO said this is the "biggest product launch since Cash," transforming from the LRT protocol into an on-chain bank
3.48 billion TVL, leader in the LRT sector, 78.8% of tokens unlocked. TVL is rising, products are iterating, risks are clearing out, and the price is still at the bottom
Wait for 0.49-0.50 to stabilize before buying, stop loss at 0.475, target 0.522-0.62 Record a narrative-level turning point. The storage "super cycle" that was praised to the skies the day before yesterday collectively fizzled out last night—SanDisk, Micron, and Hynix all plunged 7~9%, and the community was full of "falsification." But that's how narratives work: disproved one day, and maybe someone will bottom-fish and restart it the next. Industry cycles are slow variables, market sentiment is a fast variable, and when the two are out of sync, it creates this rollercoaster market. My view is: narratives based on real demand can withstand retracements and retests; if a single bearish candle scares you off, then it was never meant for those who can hold. Don't let single-day ups and downs sway your beliefs; let's see who can reclaim lost ground.When the ox stance first starts, there are often a round of terror-inducing fake falls. Sometimes, just a single big bearish candlestick can make a whole group of socialites panic and turn their heads to look at the hole. Let's look at two historical market periods as examples: In March 2023, Da Bing experienced a sharp drop, regaining all lost ground within two or three days; On June 22, 2025, the second-class C short-term decline was completed, but the same recovery was completed in two trading days and then resumed. The difference in market sentiment between real drops and fake drops is especially obvious: during bearish declines, everyone is always looking for opportunities to buy the dip, and the more the price falls, the more they want to enter; Even if the price doesn't drop much, the market quickly becomes filled with anxiety and despair during bull trading. The sentiment of Kong Cangseng holders is not very valuable as a reference. They originally expect the market to keep falling, and even if a bullish shakeout occurs, they will treat it as a bearish rebound and ultimately unjustly buy the main rally. What really matters is the mindset of the holders: a slight drop and widespread panic among the crowd means the pressure of the 'Kongtou' is nearly exhausted and the drop won't last long. Pessimists can occasionally catch short-term fluctuations, but to capitalize on long-term major market moves, they need to look far ahead.