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#BTC #ETH
【Viewpoint Update】
I did not bottom-fish at 60,000 for BTC because it really didn’t reach my psychological price expectation, plus concerns about the high-level AI bubble risk in the US stock market, I always felt BTC would have a lower position;
But this week BTC strongly rebounded, judging from the changes in trading volume and the pattern, 58,000 is increasingly likely to be the bottom of the bear market;
Anyone trading in the past month should have felt the crypto market’s trading volume is frighteningly low, and volatility has dropped to freezing point. This is the calm before the storm. What’s certain is that there will soon be big volatility, but whether it will be a surge or a crash cannot be 100% confirmed;
Ultimately, this week’s trend unfolded with BTC choosing to rebound with increased volume, which is very similar to BTC’s movement in December 2022, both showing extreme volume contraction and very low volatility within the bear market cycle, followed by a weekly-level rebound that ultimately confirmed the bottom and then started a new bull market;
Combining this with the recent record-breaking single-day short liquidations, it’s clear that shorts were extremely crowded at that time. But looking at Binance’s long-short ratio data, there were actually more longs at the bottom. However, with the small-scale rebound, most longs started to take profits and then switched to shorts, continuously adding high-leverage heavy positions, which eventually led to the largest single-day short liquidation in history;
Many people, like me, did not bottom-fish spot at 60,000, so I’m sharing my upcoming trading plan, which is also suitable for those who didn’t bottom-fish at 60,000, for your reference:
First, I believe 60,000 is the bottom of this BTC bear market round, unless there is a historic crash in the US stock market. This probability is already very high. Although it’s frustrating for me who didn’t catch the lowest point, the current market trend shows this probability is very large;
Second, don’t regret it, because most bottom-fishers’ spot prices are actually higher than the current price. Although you didn’t bottom-fish at the lowest point, those who always bottom-fish early generally have prices concentrated above 85,000;
Next, we need to shift from a short-seller mindset and stop interpreting the upcoming rise as just a bear market rebound. But don’t blindly chase the rise. Even if the bull returns, the 80,000-90,000 trapped range will likely take about half a year to break through successfully. So during every drop of more than 15% going forward, keep accumulating spot. My expectation is to accumulate spot around 70,000;
If we are wrong and it’s not the end of the bear market, then the spot accumulated around 70,000 can be stopped out near 65,000. If your funds are ultra-long-term, meaning you won’t need them for years, you can also choose not to stop out, keep holding, and add positions again when it reaches the expected 40,000 area;
Finally: Based on historical trends and just looking at the crypto market’s current performance, the probability that BTC’s 60,000 is the bottom is already very high, unless next week completely erases this week’s gains and falls back to 65,000, or there is a major crash in the US stock market;
One more point to consider globally: If the crypto market bottoms, it means the global market won’t be too bad going forward. The US stock market will continue to hit new highs, AI’s high valuation will persist, and maybe the next crypto bear market will coincide with a global financial crisis, not this one. My previous caution was always because I worried this crypto bear market would coincide with a global financial crisis, which would push the bottom even lower;#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？
Alibaba $BABA is really putting its chips on AI this time!
Planning to place 80 billion HKD, 71 million shares? Correction: 710 million shares at 112.70 HKD each, 100% invested in full-stack AI; meanwhile, the latest quarterly AI cloud revenue rose 45% year-over-year, but capital expenditure surged 75% to 67.68 billion HKD, and net profit plummeted 75%.
My view: This is an aggressive bet of "exchanging profit for computing power, exchanging equity for the future." There is short-term dilution pressure; Hong Kong stocks fell as much as 8% today, so I do not recommend chasing the dip; 112.7 HKD is the placement price, observe if it can stabilize, and consider adding positions if it climbs back above 120. If AI revenue can continue to grow strongly, this 80 billion is ammunition; if AI monetization lags, the faster the money burns, the harsher the market criticism.How long can $NEAR keep ignoring the $ZEC rally? ZEC has nearly doubled in just a few days, while NEAR has barely reacted. And here’s the part the market may be overlooking: some of ZEC’s growing activity is already flowing through NEAR’s infrastructure. Zashi uses NEAR Intents to let users swap $BTC, stablecoins, and other assets directly into ZEC. NEAR’s own Intents explorer is showing substantial ZEC swap activity, while the broader protocol has processed billions in cumulative volume. (NEAR The US and Iran are at it again! Go short, target 75000.
BTC is hovering around 77374 now, I opened a short at 77349 with 20x leverage, currently a small floating profit.
Why short? Two reasons.
First, the US sanctions on Iran are really harsh this time.
Trump directly announced the "most destructive economic action in history" against Iran, Treasury Secretary Yellen said it will be the "strictest sanctions ever," and anyone who continues to do business with Iran will be sanctioned.
With inflation rising, the Fed dares not cut rates easily. A high interest rate environment is never good news for risk assets. Bitcoin surged from 64000 to 79000, up 15000 points, with basically no decent pullback, and profit-taking positions have piled up too much.
Second, ETF funds are indeed flowing in, but this is a double-edged sword.
Looking at the longer term, the biggest driver of this rally is a short squeeze—forced buybacks from liquidated shorts, not long-term capital entering actively. After the shorts are cleared, whether active buying can continue is still unknown. Also, the higher the price, the weaker the marginal effect of ETF inflows.
My position:
Direction: Short
Entry price: 77349.9
Current price: 77374
Leverage: 20x
Target: 75000
Summary: US-Iran sanctions push up oil prices → inflation pressure rises → rate cut expectations cool down → risk assets under pressure. Bitcoin’s rally is too large, with too many profit-taking positions, combined with a macro bearish turn, a pullback to 75000 is highly probable.
If the direction is right, hold it; exit when it hits the target, don’t be greedy. I think this move is solid.
$BTC
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 Woke up this morning, checked the dog project’s official Twitter, and instantly sobered up. Damn… after staying quiet for five days, the team started hyping the same old nonsense again at midnight. 🩸 I was literally staring at my phone thinking, here we go again. 📱 This kind of sudden hype makes me wonder whether the team is preparing to unload a massive amount on the market and leave fresh bag holders behind. If you don’t want to become exit liquidity, don’t rush in as cannon fodder just beca$OKB
Will OKX IPO in 2026?
It's not impossible; my probability estimate: official IPO in 2026 ≈ 30%–40%.
OKX's capital market conditions have clearly improved.
In March this year, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced a strategic investment in OKX, valuing OKX at about $25 billion, and both parties established business cooperation including U.S. futures and NYSE tokenized stocks.
Now that OKB is no longer tied to platform fee discounts, it is actually for the purpose of asset separation for the IPO.
Additionally, the continuous launch of tokenized U.S. stocks (xstocks), the introduction of the SEC's small financing framework, the launch of OKX's Exchange OS business, and institutional business entry—all these indicate preparation for going public.
There is still a good chance of going public this year. At least there will be significant progress in the second half of the year. 🚨 As of August 24, 2026, the real-time price of ETH is approximately $2430. Over the past week, ETH has experienced a thrilling battle between bulls and bears—rising violently from around $1900, reaching as high as $2550, then quickly falling back to $2390, currently precariously "walking the tightrope" around $2430. As an on-chain analyst, I believe ETH is currently at a critical crossroads for directional choice. This article will present a distilled in-depth analysis from five dimensions: support levels, resistance levels, on-chain whale movements, bullish factors, and bearish factors.
1. 📊 Resistance Levels: Which of the three major obstacles above is the heaviest?
First line of defense: $2430 - $2450 (intraday high-pressure zone)
This is the most immediate and pressing resistance range for ETH. In the past few trading days, ETH has repeatedly attempted to break above $2450 but failed each time. The $2430-$2450 range has accumulated a large amount of short-term profit-taking and sell orders. If the intraday level cannot break through $2450 with volume and confirm a retest, the short-term bulls will find it difficult to open up upward space.
Second line of defense: $2500 - $2550 (psychological barrier + recent high)
$2500 is a psychological integer barrier and also an area where many short stop-loss orders cluster. On August 23, ETH encountered a "sudden flood of sell orders" near $2550, followed by a waterfall decline to $2390. This means there is real supply pressure in the $2500-$2550 range, not just a psychological obstacle.
Third line of defense: $2722 - $2970 (massive trapped supply zone)
This is the heaviest mid-term resistance band. On-chain data shows that about 16.7 million ETH were previously bought in this range. Once the price reaches this area, it will face a large sell-off from trapped holders. Ali Martinez pointed out that ETH must effectively clear this supply zone to open the path to $5000. This is not a task that can be easily accomplished in the short term.
2. 🛡️ Support Levels: Which of the three defenses below is the most reliable?
First support: $2320 - $2390 (short-term lifeline)
$2390 is the key low formed after the plunge on August 23. If this level is effectively broken, ETH will face the risk of further decline. The $2320-$2350 range is recommended by multiple analysts as a "dip-buying zone." Whether this range holds determines the short-term trend's bull or bear dominance.
Second support: $2200 - $2250 (mid-term core position)
This is near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (around $2210) of ETH's rise from $1870 to $2550. At the same time, a large number of long leveraged positions awaiting liquidation are clustered above $2200. If the price falls to this area, it may trigger a chain liquidation reaction, intensifying downward pressure. Therefore, $2200-$2250 is a defense line that mid-term bulls must hold at all costs.
Third support: $2070 - $2150 (bull market structural bottom line)
This is the "breakout turned support" area formed after breaking the months-long downtrend line. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (around $2130) also falls within this range. If ETH breaks below $2070, it will mean the recent breakout structure has failed, and the price may further slide toward $2010 or even $1800. This is a critical watershed for judging whether the mid-term trend has reversed.
3. 🐋 On-Chain Whale Movements: What are the whales doing?
🟢 Bullish whales: continuous accumulation, strong confidence
In the past week, the number of whale addresses holding over 10,000 ETH increased by 17, a 1.74% rise. Meanwhile, about 180,000 ETH (worth approximately $440 million) flowed out of exchanges. Address 0x2d59 withdrew 120,000 ETH from Binance within three weeks. On August 24, another whale accumulated 4,000 ETH at an average price of $2399 over the past week. Exchange ETH balances dropped from about 7.7 million in early June to about 6.54 million in mid-August. This "withdrawal and accumulation" behavior is usually seen as a strong bullish signal.
🔴 Bearish whales: cashing out at highs, clear divergence
However, not all large holders are bullish. On August 21, two major whales sold a combined $63 million worth of ETH and staked ETH. The "7 Siblings" sold 14,000 ETH at an average price of $2346. More notably, Abraxas Capital established a short position of up to $783 million on Hyperliquid while hedging by buying spot. In the past four days, it withdrew 73,872 ETH (about $173 million) from Binance. This is a typical long-short hedge strategy—shorting contracts while accumulating spot—indicating the institution sees short-term downside risk but remains optimistic mid-to-long term.
The whale group holding over 1,000 ETH collectively reduced about 1.7 million ETH (a 2.9% decrease) from May to August. This indicates that above $2400, some large funds are orderly reducing their positions.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 The bull hasn't arrived, so don't get excited blindly.
After a few days of rising, some people are already shouting bull market. I sincerely advise you to stay calm. To put it simply, this wave is just the short sellers from before getting squeezed out, forced to cover their positions and buy back, which pushed the price up. Look at the weekly chart, ETH is still where it was. A 30% jump in a week is good, but if it can't hold around 2500 to 2600, don't even talk about a bull market, it can't even be called a rebound.
So what if the big whales add more long positions? We've seen whales get liquidated before, don't treat big players as faith.
My own trading idea: You can get some OKB, but don't chase near 110, wait for a pullback to around 105 and buy in batches. The volume has shrunk a lot, just test the waters with a small position. BEAT has dropped more than 60% in seven days, with a market cap left of just over 40 million USD, funds are still running away, don't itch to catch a falling knife. ZEC surged 70% in a week, contract positions are nearly 2 billion, you can't short or chase this coin, watching is the safest. TRUMP is fierce, doubling in a week, if 2.5 doesn't break there's a second wave, but only treat it as a short-term quick trade, don't get attached.
The whole market looks lively now, but it's actually a short squeeze holding up, not new money coming in. If ETH can't hold 2600, I absolutely won't admit it's a bull market. Just watch that level, if it can't break through, everything is in vain.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX Prophet: F1 and TI15 Results Revealed
Latest Objective Information
TI15 Grand Finals: Team Spirit made a 3-2 comeback to defeat Team Vision and claim the championship, with Yatoro achieving a triple crown. F1 Grand Prix race results are in, OKX Prophet betting settlements completed, and participants' outcomes determined. In the crypto market, BTC is oscillating at a high level, OKB as the platform token is slightly influenced by platform traffic events, with $BTC and $ETH leading the overall market direction.
Market Consensus
Those who guessed correctly are bullish on the platform token, believing $OKB will continue to strengthen due to the event; users who guessed incorrectly are more pessimistic.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Event betting is a platform marketing activity that only brings short-term emotional heat and cannot change the overall trend of the coin price. OKB's fundamentals rely on platform revenue, and its market performance remains highly correlated with the BTC market; do not mistake event hype as the core driver for the token's price increase.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally inclined to a gradual bull market return, this is solely a personal opinion and not investment advice)
The pulse effect of event hype is limited. $OKB depends on the overall market and its own support, and should not be blindly chased up due to events; betting speculation and coin price investment should be distinguished, with strict position control. $BTC
Last night BTC OI was about 106,861 BTC, ETH about 2.397 million ETH. Now the price is rising but OI is actually decreasing.
This is a good signal, not driven by new leverage pushing prices up, but rather deleveraging while prices rise. However, if the price momentum weakens due to the OI decline, then this is a bad signal, indicating a lack of sustained buying momentum in the market.
On the other hand, large holders' positions have clearly become more bullish. CMC currently shows total market Perp OI at about $473.1 billion, Volmex reference IV is about BTC 44.5, ETH 60.3.
So the current structure is:
Trend health is improving, but the crowd chasing longs is also increasing, and high leverage is still unnecessary. TRUMP team cashes out large amounts! One-sided sell-off of 1.1 million tokens, cashing out $2.94 million
Latest on-chain monitoring: The TRUMP team address acted again, selling 1.1 million TRUMP tokens through one-sided liquidity, cashing out a total of 2.94 million USDC at an average price of about $2.68.
Notably, this is a consecutive action! Yesterday, the team transferred 3.837 million TRUMP tokens (worth $9.33 million) to exchanges, and today immediately followed up with a dump to cash out. The project team's selling rhythm is very clear.
Many people don’t understand the harm of one-sided liquidity selling: this method involves the team directly withdrawing market liquidity without placing orders or probing the market, which is a definite bearish signal and more damaging than retail sell-offs.
The core logic of MEME coins is sentiment plus chip consensus; the biggest risk is always the project team’s uncontrolled cashing out. This round of continuous selling directly erodes market bullish confidence and greatly amplifies short-term selling pressure.
Personal practical view:
1. TRUMP is currently purely a sentiment-driven token with zero fundamentals, driven entirely by news. The team’s continuous cashing out indicates the official side does not recognize the current price level, so absolutely do not chase at highs.
2. Holders must lower expectations and be prepared for secondary dumps and sharp pullbacks; do not blindly hold through.
3. If the market quickly absorbs the bearish news and holds key support, it will only be an oversold rebound, not the start of a new uptrend.
Overall, the popular political MEME is currently entering a team selling cycle. Short-term speculative value is very low; it is best to wait and avoid taking over main force chips. $TRUMP #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
$BTC
The US-Iran sanctions have escalated again, essentially pushing the conflict that has lasted about half a year from "military + blockade" further into "comprehensive economic strangulation." The risk of energy inflation is indeed rising, but the extent and duration depend on enforcement and the actual navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz, not slogans.
The current background is clear: Since the US-Iran conflict began at the end of February 2026, there was a 60-day memorandum of understanding window (including temporary allowance for some Iranian oil transactions), but after the window expired, neither side made substantial progress toward a final agreement. US Treasury Secretary Bassett will announce the so-called "strongest financial offensive/economic D-Day in history," focusing on stricter secondary sanctions, threatening to cut off economic relations with any country "transfusing" Iran (especially naming buyers like China); Iran responded strongly, saying that continuing the economic war could lead to "not a drop of oil exported" from the Persian Gulf and threatened to seize violating vessels. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has shrunk significantly (pre-war daily flow was about 18 million barrels, recently far below normal levels), and Iranian oil exports have also dropped sharply. 
Oil prices have reacted: Brent recently fluctuated above $90 (once close to $94), WTI ranged between $85-$88, with a noticeable weekly increase followed by a pullback before sanction details were announced. The market is pricing in a "supply disruption risk premium" rather than pure demand. Downstream products like gasoline and diesel have clearly risen in the US and other places, and global logistics, chemical, and agricultural costs will also be affected through transmission. Fundamental Research Report $POL / Polygon (L2/Sidechain) $3.20
Essentially: Polygon ($POL) overall score 60/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture is realized.
First, the project: Polygon (token $POL), L2/sidechain track. Focuses on ZK+AggLayer upgrades. Competitors include ARB, OP. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, Gas spikes, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (accounts for +3.50% of circulating), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparison): circulating market cap: Polygon $3.00B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. FDV: Polygon $4.20B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Annual revenue: Polygon $2.00M, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Polygon undisclosed, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Ultimately: fundamentals solid (score 60/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlock dumping, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus on these metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit$BTC Bitcoin is oscillating within a range waiting for direction!
On August 19, the Ministry of Finance extended long-term bond repos + ETF net inflow over 5 days was 1.918 billion, BTC rose 22% in 5 days touching 79.5K, shorts were liquidated for 1.44 billion;
On 8/22–23, whales dumped 7,700 coins, longs gave back gains, 24h liquidations hit 880 million (longs accounted for 750 million), price returned to the 77K midpoint. The rise is not due to lack of strength, but no one is stepping up to buy the second leg; the drop is not a bear turn, 75.5K weekend low still sees ETF buying.
Right now this machine is doing three things:
Leverage washout: OI still high at 55.4 billion USD, stabbing back and forth between 74–78K, both long and short chasers get shaved.
Waiting on macro: 8/26 Core PCE, NVDA earnings, 8/27–29 Jackson Hole (Warsh's debut)—if these three bombs don't go off, the main players won't reveal their cards.
Testing support: 75.5K hold = ETF spot base effective; 78K repeated tests = probing 80K psychological resistance; only after breaking and closing above 80K weekly can we talk about a bullish turn, breaking 74K means retesting 68–70K.
In short:
After a surge, it's "high-level rotation," not "trend end"; sideways is "macro pricing power handover," not "main players running."
BTC's current state = left hand locking in short squeeze profits, right hand waiting for Fed's direction, filtering out the undecided between 74–78K.
The most costly emotion in a range market is impatience. 74K is the bulls' lifeline, 78K is the bears' defense line, 80K is the narrative switch—before 80K, all "trend change" moves are just false signals within the range. $BTC BTC is approaching 80,000.
More and more people in the community are starting to say:
"The bull market is back."
But I think this statement is still premature.
Because we must distinguish between two concepts:
A strong rebound
and
a new long-term bull market.
This round of BTC is indeed very strong.
It quickly surged from over 60,000 to nearly 80,000,
and the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.61 billion last week,
indicating that institutional funds are indeed showing a clear return.
But at the same time:
More than $4.3 billion in short positions were liquidated.
Short squeeze itself also generates a large amount of passive buying.
So this rally includes simultaneously:
Real buying
+
Macro catalysts
+
Short squeeze
This is why the price could rise so sharply in such a short time.
So I won’t shout now:
"$100,000 is just around the corner."
But I also won’t try to top-pick and short just because BTC rose over 20%.
I prefer to let the market answer:
Can BTC truly hold above 80,000?
Can ETH and SOL continue the relay?
Only if both conditions are met,
will I further increase my confidence in a trend reversal.
If BTC breaks through 80,000 but quickly falls back,
then we must guard against a sharp pullback after the short squeeze ends.
In trading, prediction is not the most important thing. $BTC The momentum of this "currency devaluation trade" short squeeze started to fade over the weekend. How many friends are still chasing in at 79,000:
On 8/19, the Treasury doubled the long-term bond repurchase, the US dollar weakened accordingly, gold directly hit a historic high of 4,419, and the 90-day correlation coefficient between BTC and gold soared to the highest since the pandemic. This wave of iShares BTC ETF rose 22.6% in a single week, with three consecutive days of +6% daily gains. The spot ETF had a net inflow of over 1 billion dollars from 8/19 to 8/20. The short squeeze was real.
Yesterday afternoon, the spot price fell below 76,000, reporting 75,545, down 2.4% in 24h, and RSI has already dropped into the oversold zone. After the short liquidation ended, profit-taking began to sell off; the short squeeze day is over, and without new catalysts, only profit-taking remains.
Below, 74,200 is the 50-day moving average, 72,500 is a solid support level from February consolidation, and further down is the 70,000 round number. The mid-term "currency devaluation trade" narrative remains intact (weak dollar + strong gold + Treasury repurchase), but the short-term gains were already eaten up last week.
Now back to the 77,000 range, with a short-term breakout above 78,000, these days are expected to be slight fluctuations, but in the long term, I still feel bearish. Everyone, please operate cautiously Walsh's debut at Jackson Hole on Friday! One sentence could make $BTC swing 3,000 points—are you taking this bowl of noodles?
Federal Reserve Chair Walsh will make his first appearance at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers' Symposium this Friday. The market expects him to "ease the pain" for U.S. Treasuries—clearly explain the policy framework after significantly reducing forward guidance, so the bond market doesn't continue to collapse. But his previous moves to reduce rate guidance and hint at adjusting the inflation target have already spooked the market, with over 60% of economists believing the Fed's credibility crisis has directly pushed up long-term bond yields.
What's more troublesome is that Treasury Secretary Yellen wants to suppress long-term bond yields, but Walsh tacitly allows them to rise—there's a fight between the two sides. If Walsh continues to be cryptic on Friday, U.S. Treasuries will be hammered again, risk assets will fall along, and Bitcoin will struggle to stand alone; if he gives a clear signal, it will be a short-term positive.
Retail investors have one piece of advice: don't bet on direction. Wait until Walsh clarifies his stance before making a move. Those rushing in now are just paying tuition for Powell's successor. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $SPK liquidity lock-up is restructuring valuation support, with on-chain funds gravitating towards stablecoin infrastructure. SparkLend has about $3.55 billion TVL locked, combined with $1.15 billion in the Liquidity Layer and $2.36 billion in Savings. If the B2B stablecoin flow in August triggers amplified net inflows of altcoin funds, the chip lock-up effect will boost liquidity premiums. The key observation point is the Savings side lock-up; if there is a sustained net outflow of over 10%, this scenario will be invalidated.
#卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%#卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？
The boss has something to say
Kashkari has spoken out. He said the 10-year US Treasury yield is close to 4.7%, market trading and liquidity are normal, and the Federal Reserve does not need to directly respond to long-end rate fluctuations; it can continue to focus on inflation.
This statement carries significant information. After the Treasury expanded repos, the 30-year yield dropped from 5.33% to around 5.18%, and the market once thought it was a signal of policy shift. Kashkari directly interpreted this as "just liquidity management, not a signal of rate cuts or QE."
The question is what exactly is driving the rise in long-end yields. If it is just short-term trading pressure, expanding repos can suppress volatility. But if fiscal deficits, bond supply, and inflation expectations are driving structural repricing, repos can only temporarily ease it and cannot hold down the real financing cost increase.
The effect of the long-term bond repos lasted only one day; the 30-year yield returned to around 5.27%, indicating structural pressure remains. After Kashkari's statement, the market needs to reassess the direction of long-end rates.
On the market front, Bitcoin fell from 77,000 to oscillate around 75,000. All long positions were closed waiting for a pullback; stabilize between 73,000 and 74,000 before re-entering. PMI hit a four-year high combined with Kashkari's hawkish tone, making short-term chasing less cost-effective. $ETH $BTC $TRUMP
SPCX base positions continue their pattern with sufficient profits. The fundamentals of storage are fine, but wait for a pullback before acting.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.$BTC, $ETH: A NEW WEEK, NEW MACRO TEST
As the new week begins, $BTC holds near $77K–$79K while $ETH stays above $2.4K. U.S. spot ETFs attracted $2.62B across BTC and ETH last week, marking their strongest weekly inflows of 2026.
The SEC’s regulatory direction, Fed signals and Jackson Hole remain key catalysts. Meanwhile, Hormuz tensions could pressure oil and inflation expectations. This week, ETF flows and macro liquidity may determine whether $BTC and $ETH can sustain momentum. Brent crude oil rose 6.4% last week, WTI rose 5.7%.
Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, the US announces the "toughest sanctions in history." The Middle East situation continues to heat up, and oil prices surged to $90 in one go.
Then what?
Many people's first reaction: geopolitical conflict is here, BTC should rise, right? It's a safe-haven asset.
Wrong.
What has Bitcoin been doing recently? It surged to 79,000 over the weekend, hitting a new high since May, then fell back to around $77,000 and fluctuated, even briefly dropping below 76,000 yesterday.
Oil prices are rising, BTC is falling.
Many people have the cause-and-effect relationship reversed.
Regarding oil prices and BTC, here are three counterintuitive judgments:
1️⃣ Oil price surge ≠ BTC safe-haven rise
Common intuition: war breaks out, safe haven, BTC should rise.
Actual logic: oil price rise = inflation expectations heat up = Fed dares not cut rates = liquidity tightens = BTC is sold off as a risk asset.
It's that simple.
The 10-year US Treasury yield has already soared to 4.73%, the 30-year hit 5.28%, approaching the highest level since 2007. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said last week: "I am not confident that inflation will fall back to target levels in the short term."
If inflation doesn't come down, rates won't come down. If rates don't come down, risk assets suffer.
BTC's short-term movement is not a "safe-haven" logic, but a "risk asset" logic.
2️⃣ Iran threatens to block the strait ≠ global energy crisis
What stage are we at now? Talk stage.
Iran is indeed threatening, the US is indeed sanctioning, but actual supply has not been massively disrupted.
Brent fell 2% today, breaking below $91. WTI fell below $85. What is the market pricing? Possibility, not fact.
Don't trade expectations as facts.
3️⃣ Diesel tightness ≠ just more expensive driving
Diesel price rise → transportation cost rise → production cost rise → CPI rise.
At the end of this chain is a more hawkish Fed face.
US regular gasoline prices are already about 50% higher than pre-war levels. Imported inflation pressure will directly transmit to every household and every business.
So what is the core contradiction now?
Oil price rise (negative for liquidity) vs. US dollar credit cracks (positive for BTC)
Who wins?
Look at US Treasury yields.
If the 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, BTC will be under short-term pressure.
But on the other hand, Bridgewater founder Dalio said last week: "The US faces a debt crisis and should reduce bonds and increase gold and Bitcoin."
Short term looks at liquidity, long term looks at credit.
So my conclusion is simple:
Don't make trading decisions based on gunfire.
Use data, use the yield curve.
Rising oil prices do not mean BTC will rise. On the contrary—before the Fed truly pivots, high oil prices are BTC's enemy, not its friend.
$BTC $XAU $CL #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 Preface: The opportunity for the next crypto bull market is not in new stories, but in old consensus forgotten by the market — Re-examining high-consensus trapped assets like $ORDI, $SATS, $CORE, $BICO, $ARB, $OP from a hedge fund perspective. Over the past year, the crypto market has undergone a very typical "valuation restructuring." The biggest mistake many investors made was simply interpreting price drops as project deaths. But in institutional investment frameworks, price and value are never the same thing. Many assets falling in price does not mean the market has rejected them; rather, it means the valuation given by the previous market cycle was too high, and capital needs to find a new risk-reward balance. The market is currently entering a very interesting phase: BTC is regaining institutional capital attention, macro liquidity expectations are improving, risk appetite is beginning to recover, yet many established high-consensus assets remain neglected. (The Wall Street Journal) This is usually the most worthy phase to study in a cycle. Because real big moves never happen when everyone believes, but when: "The asset still exists, but the market has lost patience." 1. I believe the market is underestimating one fact: The next round of capital will not choose completely unfamiliar assets again. Many retail investors like to look for: "the next 100x coin." But from an institutional perspective, this is the least efficient approach. Real big capital entering the market requires three conditions: First, liquidity. $BTC Monday morning session: $BTC took the last hit at 76000, then climbed back to 78000
Conclusion: The explosion is in leverage, not fundamentals. 76000 becomes the short-term bottom line, a volume breakout at 79500 signals the era of 80,000; this week focus on Wednesday's PCE + Nvidia earnings, Thursday and Friday Jackson Hole with Wash's debut, today watch for geopolitical disturbances from Basent's sanctions announcement on Iran.
$ETH pauses at a high after a 30% rise in five days: 2500 becomes the new battleground
Real money is buying (ETF single-day total exceeds 800 million), but Aave's concentrated debt is a risk; holding above 2500 targets 2710-2800, losing it falls back to 2300 to fill the gap.
3. $SOL broke 100 but didn't hold, 90 dollars is firmly welded this time
Three drivers: regulatory easing + network acceleration + ETF inflow, daily active average golden cross (last triggered 145→245); support at 89-90, holding above 93 targets mid-120s.The US SEC just released a draft for crypto regulation, providing a clear path for token compliance.
To get an exemption, you have to return to the US. Project teams must register in the US, and executives and assets must be primarily based in the US. Early-stage projects can raise up to $5 million over four years, while larger projects can raise up to $75 million per year.
Tokens can "graduate," but they must prove it themselves. Previously, whether a token was a security was judged solely by the Howey test, but now there is a safe harbor. As long as the team stops making unrealistic promises and no longer commits to appreciation, they can self-certify. However, the SEC reserves the right to hold them accountable afterward, and fraud can be exposed at any time.
Free airdrops may also count toward the limit. The draft counts airdrops and network rewards as regulated transactions. Within the $5 million limit for early-stage projects, some valuation space may need to be reserved for airdrops.
This is driven by legislative gridlock. With Congress stalled, the White House doesn’t want to wait and is directly allowing the SEC to fill the gap through administrative means. Going forward, project teams will have to carefully consider public commitments, because every promise made will eventually cost money to fulfill.🔥 After the $ETF capital inflow, where will the next round of liquidity flow? As of August 24 Beijing time, the Crypto market has shown significant changes: institutional funds are flowing back, but the capital is still centered on BTC, and Altcoins have not yet entered a full rotation phase. $BTC is currently around $77,000, with $BTC Dominance about 59%; recently, $BTC ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, totaling approximately $1.61 billion from August 17 to 20. $ETH ETF funds have also significantly increased, indicating that institutional capital is beginning to spread from BTC to ETH. 1. Market Capital Behavior The rise in $BTC is driven not only by spot funds but also by leverage from short covering, so a short-term breakout should not be directly equated with sustained incremental capital. The current capital structure is closer to: BTC → ETH → Large Altcoins rather than a full entry into altcoins. ETH is around $2440, with ETF funds continuously improving; if ETH/BTC continues to strengthen and BTC Dominance starts to decline, it would mean the capital rotation is entering the second phase. SOL is a key representative among large Altcoins to watch, but the key is not the single-day increase, but whether trading volume expands synchronously during the rise and whether it maintains relative strength during BTC pullbacks. Small and mid-cap and Meme tokens have higher elasticity but also the greatest liquidity risk; currently, it is still necessary to wait for further confirmation of sector trading volume and capital breadth. 2. Bull and Bear Logic ✅ A few days ago, BTC surged past $77,000, and the whole market suddenly heated up again. If you only look at the gains, it's easy to conclude: Has the bull market returned? But over the past couple of days, I've increasingly felt that what really matters isn't "how much it has risen," but rather: After the rise, is there anyone continuing to buy? There is indeed real money behind this rally. The US spot BTC ETF has seen significant net inflows for several consecutive days, totaling over $1.6 billion in just a few days, indicating that institutional funds have indeed re-entered the market. On the other hand, a large number of shorts have been liquidated in this rally. In other words: some people are actively buying, while others are forced to buy. So now, I'm reluctant to call it a bull market just by looking at the candlestick chart. I prefer to observe three things: First, whether ETF money can continue to flow in. Second, whether BTC can hold steady after the rise, rather than quickly giving back the gains. Third, whether leverage is starting to build up too high again. Because in crypto, it's easy for a situation to occur where shorts are first liquidated, everyone sees the crazy rise and opens longs together, only to have the longs later get crushed. So my current strategy is actually very simple: I don't chase just because the price is rising sharply, nor do I bet on a drop just because it has risen a lot. I let the market prove itself first. If ETF inflows continue and BTC pullbacks are met with buyers, I will increasingly believe this rally is genuinely strengthening. If funds start to withdraw and gains are quickly given back, it means the previous rise was likely driven more by sentiment and a short squeeze. I'm increasingly convinced that you can't just look at the market trend alone.1. Current Market Landscape $BTC $ETH $TRUMP As of August 24, Bitcoin has experienced an extremely rapid rebound. A week ago, Bitcoin was fluctuating near $62,000, but in just a few days it surged to nearly $80,000, a weekly gain of over 23%, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023. Bitcoin's current price is consolidating in the $77,000-$77,600 range, while Ethereum has risen to around $2,464. The Panic and Greed Index has rebounded from the fear level eight days ago to 73, officially entering the greed zone. II. Core Drivers of This Round of Gains 1. Fiscal Policy: U.S. Treasury Repurchases Ignite 'Currency Depreciation Transactions' The most direct trigger for this rebound was Treasury Secretary Becent's announcement to at least double the scale of the long-term Treasury repurchase program, raising the amount per repurchase from $2 billion to $4 billion. This move pushed the 30-year Treasury yield down sharply from 5.34% to 5.19%, lowering long-term yields while boosting risk appetite. The market interprets this as the restart of "currency depreciation trading"—amid rising fiscal pressures and a more accommodative financial environment, scarce assets outside the government monetary system (such as Bitcoin and gold) have become more attractive. Bridgewater founder Dalio also publicly mentioned Bitcoin, pointing out that the current global debt situation is unsustainable. 2. Regulatory Environment: Continued Positive Policy Releases U.S. President Trump has once again urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act on the cryptocurrency marketTo be honest, $ZEC really pisses me off just by looking at it right now.
The privacy coin story has been told for almost ten years, and what’s the result? In 2026, a fatal vulnerability hidden for four years was exposed — theoretically, the Orchard pool could infinitely mint fake coins without detection. It was only discovered thanks to AI, and the team had to urgently hard fork to patch it. The price was immediately halved, Arthur Hayes completely sold off and left, with a simple reason: you can’t prove whether someone secretly minted coins before.
This is the most disgusting part. Privacy was supposed to be the selling point, but now it’s the biggest black box. The coins you buy — are they real or fake? No one can say for sure 100%. Once trust is broken, it’s harder to fix than climbing to the sky. And adoption? Everyone brags about how great zk-SNARKs are, but how many people actually use it? The shielded transaction ratio looks okay, but the real user base, daily active users, and ecosystem compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum is a joke. Once regulation tightens, exchanges can delist it anytime, and liquidity can vanish in an instant.
Then there are the old problems: early founder rewards, development funds, team infighting... a bunch of historical baggage. Now it relies on Grayscale ETF rumors and institutional hoarding to pump the price again, but at its core, it’s still that fragile privacy coin.
$ZEC
#ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 #BTC surges then consolidates, ETF funds continue to flow in Good morning everyone!
BTC, OKB, and ZEC are all crypto assets, jointly driven by US Treasury real yields and market risk appetite, but they differ greatly in narrative, fundamentals, and risk structure.
$BTC Bitcoin BTC, as the market benchmark, has recently seen continuous large net inflows into spot ETFs, with institutional capital returning to drive price rebounds, though overhead resistance from trapped positions remains heavy. This round of the market is more a liquidity recovery bet on the Fed's rate cut expectations and has not yet confirmed a new trend. Once rate cut expectations cool down, the price is prone to correction pressure and remains the market's barometer.
$OKB OKB is an exchange platform token with a permanently capped supply of 21 million tokens, its value tied to OKX exchange business and the X-Layer Layer 2 ecosystem development. Recently, it has steadily risen with the platform's business recovery, utility includes fee discounts and Layer 2 network gas consumption. However, the token is highly dependent on a centralized exchange, with core risks from global regulatory policies and exchange operation status. X-Layer ecosystem TVL growth falling short of expectations will also suppress the narrative. It is a platform-ecosystem-bound asset with limited independent market movement.
$ZEC ZEC privacy coin has multiple catalysts: the SEC ended its investigation of the foundation without filing charges, Grayscale continues to push for ZEC trust to ETF conversion, combined with privacy technology narrative, showing significantly stronger recent resilience than the broader market. However, medium to long-term regulatory pressure remains unresolved; EU regulations plan to require compliant platforms to delist privacy coins by 2027, posing delisting risks for exchanges; high turnover of tokens, price action highly event-driven, lacking sustained large-scale application, making it a high-risk thematic coin.
Currently, the overall market is in a risk appetite recovery window. For BTC, focus on the sustainability of ETF fund inflows; for OKB, watch exchange trading volume and X-Layer ecosystem progress; for ZEC, monitor ETF approval battles while being cautious of global regulatory changes. If US Treasury yields rise again, all three will face valuation pressure.The Strait of Hormuz is the "throat" of global energy transportation.
Before the war, one-fifth of the world's crude oil and refined oil passed through here, about 20 million barrels per day.
And now? On the 23rd, Iran played the "oil export countermeasure card": if the U.S. wages an economic war, there will be no more oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf region.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will announce the "toughest sanctions in history" against Iran today. Iran warned that supporting these measures could be seen as an "act of war."
Both sides are competing to be tougher.
What is the result?
Brent crude oil rose 6.4% last week. Although it has pulled back to around $90 today, the market is already pricing in the scenario of a "long-term blockade of the strait."
Oil prices rise, diesel rises. Diesel rises, global transportation and production costs rise. Costs rise, prices rise.
Inflation always starts spreading from the gas station.
Step two: Inflation arrives, and the Federal Reserve panics
The average oil price in August is already significantly higher than in July.
If energy prices push inflation up again, what will the Federal Reserve do?
Cut interest rates? No way.
Goldman Sachs previously said the Fed would not raise rates this year, on the condition that "oil prices fall below $70 per barrel."
Now oil prices are around $90. Do you think the Fed still dares to cut rates?
The U.S. Treasury market is already voting with its feet—the 10-year Treasury yield closed near 4.73% last week, and the 30-year yield is close to the highest level since 2007.
Yields rising means money is getting more expensive.
Money getting more expensive tightens liquidity. Tight liquidity puts pressure on risk assets.
And BTC, in this chain, is first a "risk asset."
Although Bitcoin rose 23% in the past week, today it has fallen below the key psychological level of $76,000, down 2.4% in 24 hours.
What is the deeper reason?
Global market risk aversion is rising, and investors' concerns about inflation, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions are intensifying.
See?
The same geopolitical conflict, the same Strait of Hormuz—
Some see "safe haven," some see "inflation → rate hikes → liquidity tightening."
Two directions, worlds apart.
Don't be fooled by the "war safe haven" narrative.
Bitcoin has indeed risen alongside gold during some geopolitical tensions.
But the core variable in this round of competition is not risk aversion; it is energy inflation forcing monetary policy.
If oil prices remain high, and the Fed's rate cut expectations are delayed or even reconsidered for hikes—
BTC will face headwinds from liquidity tightening in the short term, not tailwinds from safe-haven funds.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has recently promoted Bitcoin, saying the U.S. faces an "unsustainable debt spiral."
But that is a long-term logic.
In the short term? Every jump in oil prices writes a CPI report for the Fed that it does not want to face.
In front of this report, BTC is first a "risk asset," then a "digital gold."
$BTC $CL $XAU #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 BTC breaks through $77,000, and the altcoin market remains unconfirmed. The rebound was driven by ETF inflows and short covering, but can this trend spread beyond BTC and ETH? This week, $1.6 billion was net inflows into the US spot BTC ETF, while BTC surpassed $77,000. ETH also joined the rebound, approaching $2,400, but the altcoin sector itself remains mixed. BEAT, BICO, KAITO, LAB, and SNDK have shown sideways or bearish trends without confirming sustained buying demand. What is noteworthy about this rebound is that the driving force behind price increases came more from the restructuring of derivative positions than from spot demand. Short positions in the futures market were forcibly liquidated, driving prices up, which in turn created a virtuous cycle that led to ETF inflows. In other words, the current price reflects both institutional spot buying expectations and the results of short squeezes. From a valuation perspective, what has already been priced in is BTC and ETHAfter Nvidia's earnings report, I will continue to watch Marvell's earnings on August 27th.
Because these two companies are actually answering different questions.
Nvidia is responsible for telling the market: Is GPU demand still strong? Marvell is more like telling the market:
Has AI capital expenditure truly spread to networking, interconnect, storage, and custom chips?
Last quarter, Marvell's revenue reached $2.42 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, with data center business reaching $1.83 billion. The company previously expected this quarter's revenue to be about $2.7 billion, and also expects custom chip business revenue to exceed $10 billion by FY2029.
And just before the earnings report, Marvell reached a major AI custom chip cooperation with $GOOGL: if all related targets are achieved, the contract's potential revenue could reach about $120 billion, and Google also obtained Marvell stock subscription rights worth up to about $12.2 billion.
So what I most want to confirm from this earnings report is: Has the AI money truly flowed from Nvidia to the entire infrastructure chain? The more I think about it, the more terrifying it gets, really terrifying.
Brothers, this coin has been sideways for two whole weeks, exactly two weeks.
It really seems a bit dangerous now. Could it really break through 0.1? The more I short, the more anxious I feel.
I checked the CAP unlocking information and found something even scarier: tokens held by private investors, the team, and the Echo community are all locked for 12 months.
That means for a whole year, only the initial 15.6% of CAP released at launch will be circulating in the market.
More importantly, most of that 15.6% is still in the hands of the whales.
What does this mean? It means during this one-year lock-up period, the whales have absolute control over the market; they can pump or dump at will, and the small holders' chips are insignificant.
A coin with over 80% of the chips held by whales and locked for a year—do you think they would be content with the price lingering around 0.06-0.07?
If they want to sell, they need to create room by pumping first.
It’s been sideways for so long, most likely waiting for a trigger—either the overall market warms up or a new narrative emerges. A big bullish candle breaking through 0.1 directly is not impossible.
So I’m still holding my short position today, but I might switch to long at any time. Holding a short position stubbornly under this chip structure is too risky.
I’m not surrendering; I just feel something’s off and am stepping back to observe.
If something feels wrong, you have to run; don’t wait to chase after it once it really pumps.
$BTC
$ETH
#卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ Operational Thought Reference
Currently characterized as a short squeeze rebound driven by macro liquidity, it is facing a critical test of profit-taking at high levels.
· Key Observation: This week's strategy holding at $75,385 has unrealized gains exceeding $2 billion. Although about 0.8% of the position was reduced, Bernstein expects it may resume buying, requiring ongoing attention.
· Resistance Observation: Whether it can break through $80,000 again with increased volume is key to the continuation of the rebound; if resistance persists, further pullbacks to $75,000 or even the $72,500-$74,200 range should be guarded against.
· Macro Variables: The U.S. Treasury's long-term bond repurchases and the Bank of Japan's policies remain core variables. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has surged to 2.945% (the highest since 1996). Against the backdrop of a weakening yen, Bitcoin has surged 22% counter to the trend, a divergence worth noting. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 The initial phase of this rally was mainly driven by short squeeze liquidations, but then ETF took over with strong inflows, indicating that institutions are genuinely entering the market. In a single week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs collectively attracted over $2.6 billion, marking the top performance of the year $BTC $ETH. A positive feedback loop has formed: price rises attract ETF inflows, locking in spot liquidity, which further pushes prices higher. However, the biggest current risk is the rapid short-term surge, which has accumulated a large amount of profit-taking. On the macro side, US Treasury yields remain high and inflation risks persist. The market is not a pure super bull run; it is the result of ETF inflows, short squeeze pressure, a weakening dollar, and liquidity expectations resonating together. Once ETF inflows slow down and marginal buying cools off, a deep correction is very likely. Key points to watch going forward: capital sustainability—whether ETFs can maintain daily net inflows at the hundreds of millions of dollars level. If it turns into continuous net outflows, beware of a market dump. Critical threshold—whether the price can effectively hold above 80,000 instead of frequently spiking and falling back. How far the market can go is not determined by retail sentiment but depends on whether institutional funds are still willing to keep buying. Follow ETF inflow data closely—that is the true attitude of real money. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 Genius Trader - Little Yellow Bean (Day 10)
Today's recommended mainstream coin: $LINK
Current price: $11.5
Reason: The absolute leader in decentralized oracles, providing critical data services for DeFi, RWA (Real World Assets), and cross-chain. Almost all major public chains and protocols rely on it. It is a must-have project that "sells shovels" rather than a pure narrative coin.
Support levels:
First support level: 10.8–11.0
Second support level: 10.0–10.5
Resistance levels:
First resistance: 11.8–12.0
Second resistance: 12.5–13.0
Trading strategy: Watch for stabilization opportunities near the 10.8–11.0 pullback, with stop loss set below the key support; The CLARITY Act could be more important for crypto than another short-term price narrative. If the U.S. creates clearer boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, institutions may finally have a framework they can work with. That could support growth across: • Institutional custody • Tokenized assets • Crypto infrastructure • Regulated trading • Digital-asset products But clarity won’t mean every token wins. Stronger compliance standards could push weaker projects out while giving credible networks moOn the surface, the market looks as lively as a holiday, but in the futures session, it's actually so quiet it's unsettling. Have you noticed that at times like this, no one dares to speak loudly? I stared at the 24-hour liquidation data, and my first impression wasn't excitement, but a sense that something was off. BTC and ETH spot ETF capital flows are so fierce, and the news of NVIDIA's price hike is explosive, yet the liquidation scale in the futures market is pitifully small. The total liquidation volume in 24 hours was only $180,000, with the largest single transaction at just $130,000—which isn't even a splash in the broader market. This isn't money waiting and waiting; it's money holding back big moves. It's more interesting to look at changes over time. At the 1-hour level, the bears completely dominated, and the liquidation of the long positions was zero. But starting at the 4-hour mark, both bulls and bears had victories and losses. By the 12-hour mark, the bulls had overtaken the lead by 1.75 times, and by the 24-hour range, it had expanded to 2.96 times. Doesn't this rhythm resemble a boxer's routine of first probing, then throwing punches, and finally attacking with full force? But the problem is, the total liquidation volume is too small, indicating that leveraged positions have not truly accumulated yet, and the market has not yet reached that critical point where it could erupt. More importantly, this low liquidation environment actually lays the groundwork for the subsequent sharp fluctuations. Because the true top and bottom never appear when liquidation volumes are high, but only after liquidation volumes have shrunk to the extreme and leverage has been fully released. The current state is more like the calm before the storm, not the calm of a calm end. BTC repeatedly tested the $80,000 mark, with a short liquidation wall above reaching $1.4 billion,In the past two days, I saw the news about Yushu🌲 going public and opened a long position. On the first day, the big A market once surged to 1200, and the crypto market rose in sync📈. The next day, I woke up and quickly ran away, as a long horizontal trend usually leads to a drop📉. Currently, it seems Yushu will continue to dive📉. #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ Here are four reasons for my analysis: First, Yushu had a very small circulating supply at the initial listing, causing the opening price to be wildly speculated; then, new share institutions concentrated on profit-taking, triggering a stampede of funds at high levels.
However, the valuation diverges from performance, with the initial listing valuation being extremely overextended (P/E ratio over 800 times), but the first quarter's net profit excluding non-recurring items dropped sharply📉, and the fundamentals cannot support the high premium. 🔥🔥🔥 The core issue is that commercialization is blocked, and the product currently heavily relies on scientific research and education scenarios, with very low penetration in high-value fields such as industrial manufacturing. Secondly, market sentiment cooled down, and after the initial hype was realized, funds fled, compounded by the company reducing its participation in the robotics sports competition, further intensifying market pessimism. #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Recently, a trend has become increasingly obvious:
AI Agents are starting to "own wallets."
Binance is enabling AI Agents to access trading, wallet, and payment capabilities.
Cloudflare is also beginning to equip AI Agents with identities and wallets.
This means AI is evolving from "helping you analyze" to "helping you execute."
Previously:
"Help me check BTC."
In the future, it might be:
"Help me manage this USDC."
"Spend up to 100 USDT per day."
"Automatically execute trades when conditions are met."
At this point, wallets are no longer just tools for storing coins.
They become the AI Agent's:
Identity + Account + Permissions.
But the real challenge also arises.
The smarter the AI, the more secure the wallet needs to be.
Limit controls, permission management, risk identification, transaction confirmation... all become increasingly important.
In the future, it might even be:
One AI Agent responsible for execution, another AI responsible for protection.
So I believe the real opportunity for AI Wallets is not "adding AI to wallets."
It's redefining what a wallet really is.
From an asset management tool to an entry point connecting people, AI, and Web3.
This transformation is just beginning. From August 17 to 21, BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $1.92 billion, with about $308 million net inflow on August 21 alone.
This indicates that the current rally is not solely driven by contract short squeezes; there is genuine spot demand behind it.
Next, whether $BTC can break through $80,000 and whether ETFs continue to see inflows are more important than funding rates."BTC breaks through 77,000 with volatility, 780 million hedging tears apart ETF buying frenzy"
Everyone is celebrating as Bitcoin touches 77,000, and ETFs have absorbed nearly 2 billion USD in a week.
It looks like it's about to take off directly, but opening the ledger reveals it's all institutions doing spot-futures arbitrage.
Big asset managers like Abraxas have piled up 780 million in short positions on-chain.
They lock the spot in cold wallets and simultaneously build equivalent-sized short positions at high levels.
With both sides locked, all volatility is fully hedged, and they earn hundreds of thousands daily just from long position funding fees.
Most of the 20 billion in on-exchange volume is just back-and-forth between hands; the upper buy-side has long diverged. $BTC On August 19, Bassent doubled the long-term bond buyback cap at the Treasury, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to fall from 5.31 to 5.18, effectively a disguised liquidity release. Bitcoin has three major bullish candlesticks, rising 20% in just a few days from 64,000 to 78,000. The group chat started calling for Niu to come back again. $BTC The money really came back. In the third week of August, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw a weekly net inflow of $2.61 billion, marking the strongest week since October last year. Bitcoin ETF total assets have returned to $96 billion, while Ethereum $ETH $14.3 billion. But not everyone came back. During the same period, global monthly active on-chain addresses fell 18% year-over-year, while passive holders rose 16% year-over-year. The "people" mentioned here are not holders who buy and then don't move, but developers, traders, and governance participants—these proactive groups—they are the true "users" of this industry. More and more people hold crypto assets, while fewer and fewer truly use blockchain. The industry's total monthly active users are about 28,000, down from a peak of 45,000 in 2022, which is still smaller than the engineering team of a mid-sized internet company. Prices are rebounding, narratives are declining. The previous round's slogan was decentralization; this one's slogan is compliance. In the previous round, people talked about private keys and mnemonic phrases; in this round, people talked about ETFs. Last time, I thought blockchain could change the world; this time, I think#BTC fluctuates after a surge, ETF funds continue to flow in
BTC fluctuates after a surge, is it a peak or a shakeout?
Capital flow is the key to understanding this market cycle $BTC
Core driver: from short squeeze to institutional takeover
The initial rally was mainly driven by short liquidations, but then ETFs took over with strong inflows, indicating real institutional participation
Data speaks: In a single week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs attracted over $2.6 billion, marking the best performance this year
Positive feedback loop:
Price rises ➔ ETFs attract capital inflows ➔ locking spot liquidity ➔ further pushing up prices
Current biggest risks and hidden dangers
The rapid short-term rally has accumulated a large amount of profit-taking. Given that US Treasury yields remain high and inflation risks persist, this is not a pure super bull market, but a result of ETF inflows + short squeezes + a weakening dollar + liquidity expectations converging
Once ETF inflows slow and marginal buying cools, a deep pullback is likely
Key points to watch going forward
Capital endurance: Whether ETFs can maintain daily net inflows of hundreds of millions of dollars; if it turns into continuous net outflows, beware of a market crash
Critical threshold: Whether it can effectively hold above $80,000 instead of frequently surging and falling back
How far the market can go is not determined by retail sentiment, but depends on whether institutional funds are willing to keep buying
Not investment advice, DYOR Let's review this "roller coaster": This rally was mainly driven by short sellers being forced into liquidation, combined with the U.S. Treasury's Treasury bond buyback to release liquidity, making it "leverage-driven" rather than "spot-driven." Once the wind direction shifts, long liquidations will amplify the decline. So, don't let a momentary price increase cloud your judgment, nor be scared out of your wits by a sudden plunge. Regarding the upcoming trend, here are three brief points: $BTC We are currently in a period of high-level oscillation digestion. There is considerable pressure around $75,000. Before new large spot funds enter, the market is likely to be consolidating. Stop it, don't recklessly open high-multiples contracts! $ETH On-chain data is actually very healthy, with ETH on exchanges decreasing. But in the short term, the rally was indeed too aggressive and needed a pullback to shake out the market. As long as someone is willing to buy during pullbacks, the outlook remains optimistic. $SNDK Recently, SNDK's contract trading volume reached $2.51 billion, with all the funds concentrated here. The logic behind AI storage is indeed solid, but there are too many short-term profitable positions, and when the market plunges, it fluctuates greatly. When trading such high-popularity contracts, never take heavy positions or take full positions; keeping a good stop-loss is the key! 🤔🤔 Key reminder this week: The Jackson Hole annual meeting is coming soon, along with Nvidia's earnings report—these are all "big events" that can ignite the market. Before the news is released, it is recommended to hold a light position and observe the situation; preserving your principal is the key. #杰克逊霍尔临近, can Wash's policy path clarify #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #BTC冲高后震荡, ETF funds continue to flow in Haven't talked about $LITE for a long time. With the US stock market closed over the weekend, the token itself slid down 1.59%. This trend looks weak and doesn't match the news at all.
📰 News: Analysts are bullish on Lumentum due to Trump's restrictions on Chinese data center components, expecting a big upside, but CEO Yuan Wubin sold $1.69 million worth of shares. The stock has already dropped 7% this week. Insider moves like this are more real than research reports.
🔧 Technical: The daily RSI14 is stuck at 50.6, neutral with no oversold condition. After the MACD death cross, the green bars are still expanding. Price has fallen below MA7 and MA25, with a bearish 7/25 moving average alignment. The short-term structure is clearly weak. For a rebound, first see if it can reclaim the moving averages, but I don't have high expectations.
🌍 Macro: The Nasdaq 100 tokens barely moved over the weekend with only +0.01%, basically stalled. With the US stock market closed, tokens lose their stock anchor and liquidity is very thin. Any selling pressure at this time will be amplified.
🎯 Today's view: Bearish today. Insider selling combined with bearish technical alignment, no stock anchor over the weekend. At this position, I tend to look downward for the token and at least don't see any reason for it to strengthen against the trend now.
📊 Token 847.50 (-1.59%) | US stock market closed over the weekend
#USSemiconductors
#LumentumInsiderSelling
#NasdaqTokenLiquidity Trump's issuance of the $TRUMP token is an extremely good business.
Actually, many people think their profit method is selling TRUMP tokens.
You're wrong; their main source of profit comes from royalties / licensing fees.
Every time you trade TRUMP tokens, he takes a cut.
So far, he has earned $636 million through this channel.
What does this mean?
This income already exceeds the combined scale of all his hotels, golf courses, and other physical businesses.
His Mar-a-Lago estate used to generate about $77 million in annual revenue.
Trump National Doral Golf Club generates about $122 million in annual revenue.
Since the $TRUMP token was issued in 2025, they have roughly sold 251 million tokens (this may not be exact but close), totaling about $300 million, which is far less than the royalties.
So you see, traditional businessmen are much better at playing the game than crypto amateurs.
Selling tokens is a one-time profit; royalties / licensing fees are perpetual.
As long as people trade, they make money; the TRUMP token is their perpetual money-making shovel.
So you see, once someone masters the art of attracting money, they can't stop.
Trump is very anxious about the election, and this may be a big part of the reason.To be honest, $ONDO is currently in a pretty awkward position.
The project itself is doing okay in the RWA track, with tokenized US Treasuries and stablecoin products that have some substance, and the TVL isn't low either. But the problem is—these profitable businesses have almost nothing to do with the $ONDO token. The company collects management fees and spreads, and the money goes straight into the company's pocket. Holders of $ONDO don't get a penny in dividends, not even a buyback. The so-called "governance token" sounds impressive, but in reality, it's just a voting tool, and the votes are controlled by insiders and locked-up chips.
The unlocks are even more disastrous. The big unlock in January 2026 directly halved the price twice from its peak, and now it's still sitting over 80% below its ATH. There are more unlocks coming in 2027 and 2028, so the selling pressure never ends. The platform keeps growing, but the token keeps crashing worse and worse. Isn't this the classic "business succeeds, token goes to zero" script? Even worse, the founder Nathan Allman suddenly passed away in May 2026, and now the company is embroiled in a control rights lawsuit. The leadership is a complete mess, so what long-term value can you expect this governance token to bring you? So don't be fooled by the RWA hype.
$ONDO is just an air governance token seriously disconnected from the business. Buying it means taking over the bag for early investors and the team, and you have to suffer through the unlocks too. If you really want to play in RWA, just buy the products themselves; there's no need to touch this token. 🔥 $BTC IS ACCUMULATING AT HIGH LEVELS — BUT THE MARKET STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED
$BTC surpassed $70K and at times approached $80K. What’s notable is not just the price increase, but who is behind the buying pressure.
Spot ETF inflows have consistently recorded strong capital inflows, with over $1.6 billion poured in just last week.
This is not simply a short-term FOMO wave. As institutional capital grows, the structure of Bitcoin buyers is changing.
📌 The price may adjust, but if ETF inflows persist, the major trend This morning, $HYPE briefly surged past $83, with a seven-day increase exceeding 40%, and its market cap has already surpassed $20 billion. Alongside the price strength, futures trading volume and open interest have raised the liquidity foundation of this trend.
What’s even more worth watching is the market structure. Futures have about $4.33 billion in 24-hour trading volume and approximately $3.69 billion in open interest, while spot trading is around $285 million, showing that leveraged funds are significantly more active than spot.
The funding rate is about +0.01% every four hours, with bulls still dominant but not yet overcrowded. Incremental capital is willing to pay for the rise, and leverage sentiment has not overheated yet.
When spot liquidity is relatively limited, derivatives trading can more quickly rewrite price elasticity. Futures trading volume at the $4.3 billion level, combined with nearly $3.7 billion in open interest, is enough to allow the trend to be repeatedly traded and confirmed in a short time.
The speed from $55 to $83 has already been very fast. The chart shows a clear AFVG, and some believe that before continuing to target $100 to $150, a healthy correction would be more conducive to trend continuation.
The rapid rise after being mentioned by Trump has made the market wary of a straight-line surge. Leveraged trading volume is about 15 times that of spot; short squeezes and position expansions are fueling volatility, and a strong trend inherently carries high elasticity.
If $83 holds with volume, $90 will be easier to enter the pricing view. If the price falls back, support around $80 and near $75 will test whether futures capital is still willing to stay in the market.
If $83 is lost again or open interest drops significantly, the correction could be amplified by leverage. Whether the funding rate can remain mildly positive and whether spot trading can keep pace are the most direct variables to watch next.
Even if consolidation is needed, $HYPE has already proven itself to have entered a larger liquidity tier with a $20 billion market cap and active derivatives market. Short-term volatility will be amplified, but bulls dominate and funding rates are not yet extremely crowded, which remains the reason this trend can be taken seriously.
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