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The Strait of Hormuz is the "throat" of global energy transportation. Before the war, one-fifth of the world's crude oil and refined oil passed through here, about 20 million barrels per day. And now? On the 23rd, Iran played the "oil export countermeasure card": if the U.S. wages an economic war, there will be no more oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf region. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will announce the "toughest sanctions in history" against Iran today. Iran warned that supporting these measures could be seen as an "act of war." Both sides are competing to be tougher. What is the result? Brent crude oil rose 6.4% last week. Although it has pulled back to around $90 today, the market is already pricing in the scenario of a "long-term blockade of the strait." Oil prices rise, diesel rises. Diesel rises, global transportation and production costs rise. Costs rise, prices rise. Inflation always starts spreading from the gas station. Step two: Inflation arrives, and the Federal Reserve panics The average oil price in August is already significantly higher than in July. If energy prices push inflation up again, what will the Federal Reserve do? Cut interest rates? No way. Goldman Sachs previously said the Fed would not raise rates this year, on the condition that "oil prices fall below $70 per barrel." Now oil prices are around $90. Do you think the Fed still dares to cut rates? The U.S. Treasury market is already voting with its feet—the 10-year Treasury yield closed near 4.73% last week, and the 30-year yield is close to the highest level since 2007. Yields rising means money is getting more expensive. Money getting more expensive tightens liquidity. Tight liquidity puts pressure on risk assets. And BTC, in this chain, is first a "risk asset." Although Bitcoin rose 23% in the past week, today it has fallen below the key psychological level of $76,000, down 2.4% in 24 hours. What is the deeper reason? Global market risk aversion is rising, and investors' concerns about inflation, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions are intensifying. See? The same geopolitical conflict, the same Strait of Hormuz— Some see "safe haven," some see "inflation → rate hikes → liquidity tightening." Two directions, worlds apart. Don't be fooled by the "war safe haven" narrative. Bitcoin has indeed risen alongside gold during some geopolitical tensions. But the core variable in this round of competition is not risk aversion; it is energy inflation forcing monetary policy. If oil prices remain high, and the Fed's rate cut expectations are delayed or even reconsidered for hikes— BTC will face headwinds from liquidity tightening in the short term, not tailwinds from safe-haven funds. Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has recently promoted Bitcoin, saying the U.S. faces an "unsustainable debt spiral." But that is a long-term logic. In the short term? Every jump in oil prices writes a CPI report for the Fed that it does not want to face. In front of this report, BTC is first a "risk asset," then a "digital gold." $BTC $CL $XAU #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升