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If NVIDIA AI servers really increase in price by more than 15%, I actually don't want to discuss how strong the demand is this time.
What I want to see more is: how much are customers actually willing to pay for AI?
The strongest phase of an industry is not when products sell the most, but when companies raise prices and customers still scramble to buy.
If AI server prices rise by 15%, and cloud providers and tech giants continue to expand orders, it means the current investment return expectations for AI infrastructure are still high enough.
But this is also a stress test.
Servers are getting more expensive, data centers are getting more expensive, electricity is getting more expensive, and ultimately AI applications must generate enough revenue to cover these costs.
Otherwise, today's ability to raise prices could become the reason for customers to cut capital expenditures tomorrow.
So I think when observing NVIDIA going forward, we shouldn't just look at GPU shipment volumes.
What’s more worth watching is whether downstream giants are willing to continue accepting increasingly expensive AI bills.
The real AI bubble is not server price hikes, but servers getting more expensive while AI fails to earn the corresponding money.
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% ETH surged then pulled back, moving in a range. Current price 2434, no chasing, waiting for a pullback.
✅ Long on dips: enter at 2420‑2425, stop loss at 2410, target 2460‑2480
⚠️ Breakdown plan: if it breaks below 2420 effectively, light short position, target 2380‑2400
In a ranging market, avoid chasing at the current price, wait for entry points, control position size, and strictly follow stop loss. $ETH #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 How high can Bitcoin rise in the next bull market?
In 2-3 years, a conservative estimate is around 150,000 to 180,000, and optimistically it could break 200,000.
This estimate is actually very reasonable. Last year's bull market peak was 126,000 USD; a target price of 150,000 represents only a 19% increase from that previous high, 180,000 corresponds to a 43% increase, and 200,000 corresponds to a 59% increase.
Even if Bitcoin's cycle returns decline significantly, these targets still align with the magnitude needed to break the previous high.
From a market capitalization perspective, there are currently about 20 million Bitcoins in circulation. At 150,000 USD, that corresponds to a 3 trillion USD market cap; at 180,000 USD, 3.6 trillion USD; and at 200,000 USD, 4 trillion USD.
Even if Bitcoin reaches 200,000 USD, its market cap would only be roughly comparable to that of a single major US stock company like Google...
Comparing to gold, the current total global gold market cap is 32 trillion USD. Even if Bitcoin reaches 200,000 USD, its market cap would be only about 13% of gold's.
Additionally, in the next bull market, more large-scale passive investors will participate in Bitcoin.
The most typical example is the 401k retirement accounts of ordinary US citizens, which have assets exceeding 10 trillion USD and nearly 70 million active participants. If just 1% of those funds are passively allocated to Bitcoin, similar to how they passively buy S&P 500 index funds, that would represent an incremental inflow of 100 billion USD.
And we must remember, Bitcoin's supply side is completely opposite.
Its total supply is only 21 million coins, with a daily new issuance of about 450 coins. As more Bitcoin flows into ETFs, corporate treasuries, and long-term holders' wallets, the amount of freely tradable coins on the market will decrease.
When continuous incremental funds start competing for fewer circulating coins, prices naturally need to rise to higher levels to incentivize original holders to sell. This is the simplest supply and demand logic.
Therefore, 150,000 to 180,000 USD is a relatively reasonable baseline range.
If combined with global liquidity easing, ongoing US regulatory policy implementation, and more incremental capital inflows, Bitcoin has a real chance to break 200,000 USD in the next bull market. In the short term, waiting for Bitcoin to retest support levels and buying in batches through dollar-cost averaging is not too late.
You can use OKX's dollar-cost averaging strategy for Bitcoin, which supports investment frequencies at hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly levels, and allows investing within a certain price range. Building the second growth curve for stablecoins
This alliance reflects Ripple's differentiated competitive strategy in the stablecoin sector. From past performance, Cicada has cumulatively provided credit exceeding $860 million, while Clearpool has facilitated over $930 million in institutional credit since 2021. Leveraging the historical foundation of these two mature institutions, Ripple aims to position RLUSD in the enterprise-level working capital market, transitioning it from a single fiat currency exchange channel to a credit asset layer with real interest-earning capability.
If the XLS-66 proposal is successfully approved by the community and activated on the mainnet, it will mark the official launch of the first fully XRPL-based stablecoin credit architecture. Unlike other mainstream assets focused on retail holders earning interest (such as USDC), Ripple's strategic focus leans toward activating institutional credit demand. $BTC $ETH While BTC holds the $77,000~$78,500 range, ETH is testing resistance at $2,400~2,500. However, most altcoins themselves remain unmoved. The variable that can break this trend is simple. With stocks like BEAT, BICO, KAITO, LAB, and SNDK failing to show demand accompanied by actual trading volume, can we really interpret the current BTC-led rally as a prelude to the alt season? The price records what has already happened, and trading volume shows who is participating in the market. The current data is clear. BTC is supported by strong buyers, ETH is searching for direction in resistance zones, and for altcoins, the main buyers and sellers remain unclear. This is less about capital circulation and more about selectively concentrating on specific assets. This structure means two things. First, rallies led by BTC are more likely to create differentiation by asset type than to spread risk appetite. Second, ETH will definitely hit $2,500.Fundamental Research Report $STRK / StarkNet (L2/Sidechain) $3.20
Summary: StarkNet ($STRK) overall score 62/100, rating: narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Fundamental Breakdown: StarkNet (token $STRK), L2/sidechain sector. Focuses on ZK Rollup L2. Competitors include ARB and OP. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas fees spike, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. This is a narrative-driven sector, with usage dropping 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found; 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized has no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: StarkNet $3.00B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. FDV: StarkNet $4.20B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Annual revenue: StarkNet $2.00M, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: StarkNet undisclosed, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Data based on public snapshots; missing parts supplemented by official or industry reports. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario with revenue doubling, burn implementation, and enterprise clients entering aligns FDV P/S with top peers.
Summary: fundamentals solid (score 62/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextending expectations; FDV moderate. Risk warnings: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Next focus metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. If core financial indicators deviate more than 30%, conclusions need reassessment.
End of report, welcome to discuss.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit Next week's crypto market outlook
$ETH $BTC
First, it’s important to understand that this rally is a violent rebound driven by Treasury liquidity intervention + short squeeze + spot ETF accumulation, not by interest rate cuts.
On the macro side: Federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, July CPI at 3.4%, market forecast gives about a 68% chance of holding steady at the September meeting, about 31% chance of a 25bp rate hike, and almost 0 chance of a rate cut.
Sentiment shifted from fear to greed in just five trading days, which is very risky. Historically, this combination of “unconfirmed macro + technical overbought + ETF impulse” often requires giving back some of the initial profits before determining if it’s a continuation or a false breakout.
👉 So for now, wait for a pullback.
Next, focus on three key things:
1. Powell’s successor Wash’s statements from August 27–29
Wash has taken over from Powell, and August 27–29 will be his first major speech since taking office. Watch to see if he raises the probability of a rate hike in September.
2. Net inflows of spot ETFs
After the short squeeze ends, whether ETFs can maintain daily net inflows is a core indicator to judge if real money is buying.Whale transfers ≠ missing out, is what you see really correct?
When this market rises, on-chain data shows a sea of "red lights" — $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, HYPE, LINK, mainstream coins all flooding into exchanges. Whales are running, institutions are withdrawing, is the bull market turning yellow?
Don't rush to conclusions. On-chain data only captures "actions," not "motives."
Transfers in ≠ selling. Large transfers are market makers hedging, OTC settlements, internal wallet relocations, none of which go through public order books. What you see is "from A to B," but you can't see what agreements B has signed behind the scenes.
Profit-taking ≠ liquidation. HYPE has a classic case: a whale staked and earned over $100 million, transferring 53 million into Coinbase Prime and FalconX — but chose institutional OTC channels, not public dumping, still holding 55 million exposure. This is "locking in profits, keeping positions," a combo move, not running away.
Short covering is also "acting." Abraxas, Fasanara, and Wintermute collectively shorted over $600 million in ETH and BTC. When this rebound lifted prices, shorts were liquidated in chains and forced to buy back. Some of the "transfers in" you see are actually mechanical actions of forced position closures.
Are they afraid of missing out? Far more than you. CryptoQuant data: excluding hot wallets and mining pools, large independent entities net bought about 43,000 BTC in 60 days, about $2.75 billion. Glassnode confirms: two tiers of 100-1,000 and over 10,000 coins have been accumulating together since late July. ETFs are even stronger — in August, spot BTC ETFs had net inflows of about $865 million over 5 consecutive days; BlackRock's IBIT absorbed 13,300 coins in one week, while the entire network mined only 3,150 coins in the same period. Institutional accumulation is four times the new supply.
The underlying tone of this market is "retail exits, institutions enter." Whales are not chasing the rally; they are building positions amid panic.
But stay clear-headed. Nexo analyst Ianeva puts it bluntly: whale buying under low volatility confirms structural accumulation but does not equal a full bull market; true recovery requires macro support. August spot trading volume is the lowest for the same period since 2021, with insufficient market participation and lack of confidence.
What you see is "transfers into exchanges," but what you don't see is simultaneous off-exchange accumulation, OTC profit locking, and derivatives hedging. Whales never go all-in waiting for a surge; they operate multi-threaded, buying, withdrawing, and adding positions simultaneously. On-chain data is a clue, not the answer.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Zcash’s “$1M ATH” Is Misleading
$ZEC once printed nearly $1 million per coin at launch — but that number is NOT a realistic benchmark for today’s market.
Why? Simple: there was almost no $ZEC available to trade.
That launch price was an extreme scarcity-driven anomaly, not genuine price discovery. Today, Zcash trades in a far more mature and liquid market with millions of coins circulating.
#DailyOrbit BTC has broken through 77K, but altcoins seem to be awake. Who is buying this wave of excitement? Did you notice? This week's numbers are very honest: spot BTC ETFs absorbed $1.6 billion in one go, ETH surged to around 2400, short-term short covering plus institutional subscriptions forced Bitcoin to new highs. But if you stare at the mountain stronghold, it's a completely different situation. - Momentum signals: BTC holds above 77K, ETH strengthens following the ETF narrative, and funds show clear risk-off preference, buying the toughest assets first. - Risk signals: Coins like BEAT, BICO, KAITO, LAB, and SNDC have rebounded like they haven't eaten, with volume failing and haven't even achieved a decent higher low level yet. My own feeling is that the market is trading something very clear right now: the certainty premium. Institutions want assets that can be explained. BTC and ETH have ETF channels, with traceable capital flows in and out, and the story is well told. Meanwhile, the altcoins are still in the sentiment-driven stage, without adding new liquidity to buy them, so every rally feels like a test, not an attack. Here's a detail that's easy to overlook: a short-term rebound doesn't necessarily mean a trend reversal. This wave is more like a passive exit by bears combined with institutional dollar-cost averaging, rather than retail investors entering FOMO. In other words, the rise is about filling positions, not new money entering the market. - Bullish path: BTC remains flat without falling, ETH surges above 2500 on volume, and strong coins independent of Bitcoin are beginning to emerge on altcoins4.9% High Interest Raising $6.3 Billion from Retail Investors — SoftBank Is Turning Japanese People's Money into OpenAI's Computing Power
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📊 1. Event Overview: The Largest Retail Bond Issuance in Japanese History
On August 24, SoftBank Group filed documents to issue 1 trillion yen (about $6.3 billion) in 7-year retail bonds in Japan. This will be the largest retail bond issuance in Japan's history. The bonds are expected to be priced on September 4, with a coupon rate guidance range of 4.3% to 4.9%. Subscription will be accepted from September 7 to 16, officially issued on September 17, and mature on September 16, 2033.
This is SoftBank's third retail bond issuance this year — 418 billion yen in April, 260 billion yen in June, and this time doubling directly. Issuing bonds three times a year totaling over 1.6 trillion yen, SoftBank is turning ordinary Japanese people's money into AI computing power.
🏦 2. Why 4.9%? — SoftBank Uses "High Interest" to Attract Retail Investors
A 4.9% coupon is extremely attractive in Japan's zero interest rate environment — the 10-year Japanese government bond yield is about 2.9%, so SoftBank bonds carry a premium of about 200 basis points.
But the risk is equally significant: S&P Global Ratings only assigns SoftBank a "BB+" speculative grade rating, one notch below investment grade. SoftBank's performance heavily depends on the success of AI-related investments. If the final interest rate is above 4%, annual interest expenses will be about 45 to 49 billion yen, with a total 7-year interest burden exceeding 300 billion yen. After the news, SoftBank's stock price fell 2.6% — the market is worried about the interest burden.
🔥 3. Where Does the Money Go? — OpenAI Is the Biggest "Black Hole"
SoftBank has committed to investing over $60 billion in OpenAI, expecting to ultimately hold about 13% of the shares. S&P estimates that after an additional $30 billion investment is completed, OpenAI will account for 20% to 30% of SoftBank's investment assets, becoming the second largest investment after Arm.
SoftBank is also accelerating data center investments to expand computing capacity. Masayoshi Son is building a complete industrial chain covering data centers, AI large models, chips, and robots. The acquisition of Swiss ABB's robotics business is planned to be completed in 2026.
SoftBank's AI strategy is evolving from "investment" to "full industrial chain control."
📈 4. Market Signal: The "Canary in the Coal Mine" of the AI Debt Bubble
SoftBank's bond issuance is becoming an important barometer for the global AI market. The market worries about overinvestment in AI infrastructure, and the huge expected interest expenses from bond issuance are the main selling pressure.
SoftBank previously considered using OpenAI shares as collateral to obtain a $10 billion margin loan, eventually reduced to about $6 billion. In March, S&P downgraded SoftBank's outlook from "stable" to "negative," warning that OpenAI is one of SoftBank's "worst credit quality investments." In July, S&P upgraded back to "stable" because Arm's stock price surge improved financial metrics — Arm's gains masked OpenAI's credit risk.
🔗 5. Indirect Impact on the Crypto Market
1. Traditional capital is "systematically embracing" AI rather than crypto
SoftBank's $6.3 billion bond, Nvidia's $92 billion revenue forecast, Microsoft's and Google's hundreds of billions in capital expenditure — traditional capital is flooding into AI infrastructure on an unprecedented scale. Compared to the "regulatory uncertainty" in crypto markets, AI has a clear commercial path and backing from giants. In the capital competition, AI is stealing the spotlight from crypto.
2. The "Resource Competition" between AI and Bitcoin is escalating
Peter Schiff warns that AI and Bitcoin directly compete for speculative capital, electricity, and data center resources. SoftBank's $6.3 billion bond fundraising will be directly invested in data center and computing power expansion; the more AI data centers built, the less electricity is allocated to Bitcoin mining.
3. But AI is also creating a "scarcity premium" for Bitcoin
Strive's CEO believes that the AI era increases demand for scarce assets. Bitcoin, as a fixed-supply asset with no competitors, will become the natural destination for capital seeking "decay-resistant" hedges. When AI makes everything abundant, Bitcoin's scarcity becomes even more prominent.
💎 6. Summary
SoftBank's 4.9% high-interest $6.3 billion retail bond to bet on OpenAI is a microcosm of the global AI investment race. As SoftBank, Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia simultaneously increase AI investments on an unprecedented scale, the market is witnessing the largest concentration of tech capital in human history.
The risks are equally real: SoftBank only has a "BB+" speculative rating, and the market worries about overinvestment in AI infrastructure. If the AI boom suddenly cools, SoftBank will face over $2 billion in annual interest bills and downward pressure on OpenAI's valuation.
For the crypto market, SoftBank's bond issuance is a double-edged sword: in the short term, AI is drawing hot money and attention away, but in the long term, the "age of abundance" brought by AI is making Bitcoin's "scarcity" unprecedentedly valuable. When Masayoshi Son borrows money from retail investors at 4.9% interest, he is betting on AI's future — and Bitcoin holders are betting on what will truly be scarce in that future.
$BTC $NVDA Leverage Alert | Open Interest Dynamic Data Analysis (August 24, 12:49)
The total open interest across the entire network remains at a high level for this phase, with overall market leverage rising. The intensified battle between longs and shorts is a major cause of the recent sharp market fluctuations.
$BTC open interest shows no obvious decline; after short squeezes, a large amount of new long and short positions have re-accumulated at high levels. Whether facing upward pressure or downward support tests, it is easy to trigger chain liquidations. Dual-direction liquidations have become the norm, and funding rates remain neutral without extreme one-sided bias.
$ETH open interest is also at a high level, with leverage concentration relative to market cap higher than BTC. Small fluctuations can trigger mass forced liquidations, and stop-loss sweeps occur more frequently than with BTC.
ZEC and TRUMP, as hot tokens, have seen rapid rises in open interest, with speculative contract funds flooding in, making the market highly susceptible to sharp spikes from news.
High open interest itself does not indicate price direction but signals increased leverage risk in the market. When volume breaks out, high open interest can propel the trend; if broken, it can amplify retracement magnitude. Operations must keep leverage low, reduce order placement during poor liquidity at night, and use open interest data only as a reference. It must be cross-verified with volume-price data and liquidation maps and should not be used alone to judge market direction.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 If Trump really reconciles with Iran and TACO afterward, gold and $BTC could possibly follow a pattern of falling first and then rising.
Recently, gold, silver, and BTC have surged so quickly, and I think part of this is actually trading on the fact that U.S. long-term Treasury yields can't be suppressed. The 30-year Treasury yield has remained very high, and Basent has started trying to intervene in long-term bonds again. Naturally, the market worries that if the U.S. ultimately refuses to let long-term yields continue rising, the pressure might gradually shift to the dollar and monetary credit. So recently, gold, silver, and BTC all have a bit of a dollar depreciation trade flavor.
If Trump suddenly reconciles with Iran, oil prices are very likely to drop quickly first. After oil prices fall, inflation pressure will also ease significantly, and the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields might no longer need to stay at such high levels. In this case, the market’s previous biggest concern—that long-term yields can’t be suppressed—would temporarily ease. The part of the recent rise in gold, silver, and BTC driven by this logic might short-term give back some gains, so the immediate reaction to a true TACO might not be continued gains but rather a pullback. This would conveniently trigger a burst of high-leverage BTC longs.
But I wouldn’t interpret this pullback as the end of the trend. Because if oil prices continue to fall afterward, inflation eases, and long-term yields keep going down, that would actually be good news for gold and $BTC in the medium term. So my current preferred scenario is: after Trump’s TACO, oil prices drop first and airline stocks rise; then gold, silver, and BTC dip once to shake out longs, and then continue to rise The U.S. midterm elections won't be voted on until November, but the market is already getting restless.
This time, it just so happens that the crypto space and the U.S. stock market I've been studying recently are connected.
On August 19, Trump mentioned Crypto again at the White House, calling on Congress to push the CLARITY Act.
I briefly looked over this bill; its main goal is to further clarify the regulatory rules for Crypto.
Which assets are securities or commodities, and whether the SEC or CFTC should regulate them.
These issues have been quite ambiguous before, but if this can really be implemented later, it could at least reduce a lot of regulatory uncertainty.
In the past, when I saw Trump making statements, I would easily think that the subsequent rise in BTC and crypto concept stocks was all because of that.
So this time, I reviewed what else was happening in the market at that time.
- On the same day, the U.S. Treasury also announced that it would increase the repurchase scale of some 10- to 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion.
- Just the day before, the 30-year Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.34%, a new high since 2007.
Simply put, the interest paid by U.S. Treasuries is getting higher and higher, so stocks and Crypto naturally face greater pressure.
After the Treasury's announcement, the 30-year Treasury yield fell back to around 5.19%, and U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC all rose.
By the 20th, Crypto continued to strengthen.
BTC climbed back above $70,000.
Coinbase rose about 6%.
Strategy rose about 4%.
Circle rose about 3.8%.
Seeing this, I gained a bit more understanding of this market move.
Before, when I saw Trump supporting Crypto, I would only think about whether it was good news for BTC.
Now, after systematically studying the U.S. stock market, I realize that the same market move also connects policies, Congress, Treasury yields, and listed companies.
Recently, in the U.S. midterm elections, the Crypto industry itself has already invested a lot of money, hoping to influence future regulatory directions.
So this time, I added a new knowledge point.
Political news can't just be seen as good or bad news.
You also have to see whether it changes regulatory expectations, interest rate environments, and the business of related companies.
#USStocks #Crypto How to position Hyperliquid, and how to see $240 for $HYPE
Looking back at Hyperliquid's narrative history: from the earliest fair launch Dex, to APP L1, then to Blockchain to House All Finance, recently upgraded to "Infra to House All Finance (the AWS of finance)"
The pattern is obvious to the naked eye: moving away from the application layer toward the protocol layer; HL is no longer an exchange but infrastructure. Outsourcing compliance costs to builders, giving the Dex identity to builders, maintaining its own pure and clean positioning, isolating compliance risks—this is a top-level strategic move.
At this point, the Damocles sword hanging over Hyperliquid is likely to disappear completely. Previously, the community worried about what would happen if Jeff got arrested; now HL has transformed into the legitimate new infrastructure of next-generation finance.
I think many people haven't realized yet that Hyperliquid+HIP might be the lowest-cost optimal route to enter the US market—more transparent markets, natural self-custody of funds, censorship-friendly whitelist features... meaning lower compliance costs and fewer proofs required.
We can simply predict two future prosperity scenarios: one is more HIP-3 deployers providing more Dex supply for the US market; the other is the influx of funds from US institutions and qualified investors into HL. This represents capital on the scale of 10x to 100x.
One more thing, the positioning as "the AWS of finance" also reveals huge ambition and potential. Nasdaq wants to realize asset tokenization and 7*24 global trading; among infrastructure providers, that green gourd is very likely to become the first choice.
——
Let's talk about the price judgment logic for $HYPE: the best business model, the strongest token economic mechanism, the top-tier brand positioning and narrative. During BTC's drop from 120k to 60k and rebound to 80k, HYPE rose from 50 to 80, showing strong resilience.
Judgment logic one:
From a market sentiment perspective, current HYPE has the immediate feel of $SOL at the start of the last bull run at $80, which later peaked at $240 in the bull market.
Judgment logic two:
From the perspective of AF's buying power, treating HYPE's annual buyback capacity as a company's annual profit, giving Hyperliquid fundamentals—"buyback multiple" defined as market cap divided by annual buyback power:
- buyback multiple = HYPE circulating market cap / annualized buyback power
- buyback yield = annualized buyback power / HYPE circulating market cap = 1 / buyback multiple
YTD annualized buyback capacity is $597M/year, buyback multiple 29.85x, buyback yield 3.35%
This buyback power metric not only reflects Hyperliquid's business development (revenue and market share) but also represents the overall crypto trading market heat. Using buyback power as a benchmark, I created an HL price prediction model:
Unified control variables:
- Required buyback yield: 3.35%
- Corresponding buyback multiple: 29.85×, conservatively assuming buyback multiple remains unchanged, consensus does not strengthen
- HL market share: 4.811% → 5.790%, conservatively assuming linear growth with no acceleration, increasing about 0.98 percentage points per year
- Comprehensive buyback fee rate: 2.1588 bps, including Core and HIP-3
- HIP-3 revenue structure unchanged, growth mode not turned off
- Business conservatively expanding, no new revenue mechanisms launched
- Ignoring staking, unstaking, and EVM prosperity effects
- Circulating supply: 222.45 million tokens
- No community consensus enhancement or valuation multiple expansion assumed
- No BTC Beta extra impact on market price considered
Under these unified control variables, the theoretical value of $HYPE roughly correlates positively with market trading volume and trading heat.
Conclusion:
- For every $1T increase in total market monthly trading volume
- Annualized Buyback Power increases by about $150M
- HYPE theoretical value increases by about $20.13
Preset three market trading heat tiers: current bull-bear transition phase, last bull market annual monthly average, full sample trend, corresponding to $6.7T, $7.74T, $9.48T monthly average total network contract trading volume, corresponding to HL $1.005B, $1.161B, $1.42B annualized buyback power one year later.
One year later, HYPE theoretical prices are $134.87, $155.83, $190.79 respectively.
The above variable controls are very conservative. If considering HL market share growth following current acceleration, more positive factors, community consensus enhancement, BTC beta bull market, macroeconomic catalysts, prices will be higher than expected.
Judgment three:
If HYPE reaches the current market cap of SOL and BNB, which are 50 billion and 100 billion respectively, corresponding prices would be $250 and $430.
No logic, pure prediction. The bad news is uncertainty whether crypto can reach the hot money concentration of the last cycle; the good news is 90% of tracks have been falsified, money and consensus will flow to leading projects.
Of course, $HYPE's trend is quite distinctive; it must retrace before reaching new heights, enduring a healthy correction of 30%-50%. In other words, for those bullish on HYPE, a 30% correction is a good opportunity to start bottom-fishing and adding positions.
——
NFAAt the current stage, $BTC has clearly broken through the MA200, a moving average line that has historically been validated multiple times as an important dividing line between bull and bear trends.
From past cycles, after breaking through the MA200, the market usually experiences a pullback for confirmation. The duration varies each time, sometimes two months, sometimes half a year.
Therefore, as a long-term trend trader, the most important thing now is not to guess whether the price will rise or fall tomorrow, but to prepare in advance for the next bull market cycle and not miss the real major trend.
Based on this background, I personally prefer:
First, establish a base position with half of the spot holdings, then gradually dilute the potential pullback risk through a 90-day dollar-cost averaging plan.
Before the actual pullback occurs, there are two different possible price movements that need to be treated differently.
1. Daily candle closes above 83000, then pulls back to MA200
This situation represents a double confirmation of a bull market.
First, it confirms that the MA200 has been effectively broken;
Second, it confirms a reversal in the price structure, breaking the previous bear market structure of "lower lows and lower highs."
If both points hold true, then 57700 is very likely to be the lowest point of this bear market cycle.
Even if a black swan event occurs later, the probability of the price closing effectively below 57700 will be significantly reduced.
In this case, if BTC subsequently pulls back to the MA200, I would personally be more inclined to continue building positions near the MA200.
At the same time, coin-margined futures can be used as an aggressive position, but the risk must be strictly controlled, with liquidation set below 57700.
2. Daily candle does not close above 83000 and directly starts pulling back to MA200
This situation represents a single confirmation of a bull market.
Currently, only one thing can be confirmed: BTC has broken through the MA200.
However, at the price structure level, the key position has not truly been broken, and there remains some uncertainty about whether the bear market structure has completely ended.
Therefore, the probability of entering a major bull market afterward is theoretically lower than in the first scenario.
If this is the case, I would still choose to continue allocating spot positions near the MA200.
But the weight of coin-margined futures must be significantly reduced.
If participation is necessary, the liquidation point must be controlled below 35000 to preempt any possible extreme scenarios.
In summary, it’s actually quite simple:
Pulling back to the MA200 after breaking 83000 is a double confirmation of trend and structure, allowing for a more aggressive approach.
Pulling back to the MA200 without breaking 83000 is only a trend confirmation; the structure is not fully confirmed, requiring a more conservative approach.
At this stage, I will not change the big picture based on short-term price fluctuations.
What truly matters is which scenario BTC follows when it pulls back to the MA200.
For long-term traders, the next real pullback may be more important than chasing daily ups and downs now.
$BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 120 million USDC flows from Ethena to Ceffu — a “custody handover” or a “fund redeployment”?
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📊 1. Event Overview: 120 million USDC, completed in 6 transactions within 24 hours
From August 23 to 24, on-chain monitoring agency Onchain Lens tracked that institutional crypto custodian Ceffu withdrew 120 million USDC from Ethena’s custody wallet on Coinbase Prime through 6 transactions within the past 24 hours. The latest withdrawal was 30 million USDC, occurring about 6 hours before this report.
🏦 2. Who is Ceffu? — An institutional player spun off from Binance Custody
Ceffu, formerly Binance Custody, is Binance’s institutional-grade crypto asset custody platform. Its core feature is segregated accounts and wallet systems, with client assets stored in cold wallets that are never commingled. Through the off-chain settlement solution Mirror, institutional clients can lock assets in Ceffu cold wallets and have them credited 1:1 to Binance trading accounts. Ceffu has obtained ISO 27001/27701 certifications and SOC 2 Type 1 and Type 2 certifications.
📦 3. Who is Ethena? — The issuer of USDe, a “yield engine” in the stablecoin sector
Ethena issues the synthetic dollar USDe, generating yield through a combined strategy of ETH staking plus perpetual contract hedging. As of June 2024, Ceffu itself is one of Ethena’s main custodians, holding about $1.501 billion in assets. Coinbase is Ethena’s primary custodian, wallet provider, and perpetual contract trading platform.
The 120 million USDC was withdrawn from Ethena’s custody wallet on Coinbase Prime, with Ceffu as the recipient. The custody of USDC has shifted from Coinbase Prime to Ceffu.
🔍 4. Three possible explanations for this fund movement
1. Custody service provider switch (most likely)
Ethena’s previous main custodians included Copper ($2.072 billion) and Ceffu ($1.501 billion). This 120 million USDC flow from Coinbase Prime to Ceffu may indicate Ethena is switching part of its stablecoin reserves’ custody service from Coinbase Prime back to Ceffu.
2. Fund redeployment
The 120 million USDC might be used for Ethena’s liquidity provision, DeFi strategy execution, or new yield farming. As an institutional custody platform, Ceffu also supports on-chain DeFi interactions, so these funds could be deployed into a yield strategy.
3. Client fund allocation
As an independent custodian, Ceffu may be reallocating funds on behalf of its institutional clients. The 120 million USDC movement could correspond to a large institutional client’s deposit or withdrawal instruction, unrelated directly to Ethena’s core business.
📉 5. Market signals: a “silent transfer” of stablecoin liquidity
Against the backdrop of Bitcoin approaching $80,000 and an overall crypto market rally, this 120 million USDC custody transfer is neither a sell nor a buy signal — it mainly reflects an institutional stablecoin custody architecture adjustment. On-chain monitoring shows that on August 15, Ethena moved 81.97 million USDC from Coinbase Prime to FalconX, suspected to be an OTC trade.
Unlike the suspected OTC sale of 81.97 million USDC on August 15, this 120 million USDC recipient is Ceffu (an institutional custody platform), not a trading platform or market maker — this aligns more with custody service switching or fund redeployment rather than direct market sell-off preparation.
💎 6. Summary
The 120 million USDC moving from Ethena’s custody wallet on Coinbase Prime to Ceffu is essentially a stablecoin custody rights transfer. This is not a precursor to a “whale dump” but a stablecoin issuer adjusting its stablecoin reserve custody architecture. While the market focuses on Bitcoin at $80,000, 120 million USDC is quietly being handed over between institutional custodians — the real liquidity battles often happen off the candlestick charts.
$COIN $BTC Last week, the crypto market rebounded violently, with a large amount of profit-taking positions piling up, making it a typical bullish rally. This week's geopolitical conflicts, inflation data, and the Jackson Hole annual meeting will directly test the true resilience of this round of rebounds. The situation between the US and Iran has heated up again, and on Monday, the US will announce new sanctions against Iran. Once geopolitical escalation pushes up inflation, risk assets are easily subjected to collective selling pressure. This week's key events (Beijing time): 1. Monday: U.S. Treasury Secretary's press conference announces the implementation of Iran sanctions details, triggering geopolitical risks first. 2. Wednesday: Core PCE inflation and GDP revision data released, combined with Nvidia's earnings report. Inflation data is hot, and expectations for rate cuts have cooled down, weighing on the crypto market. 3. Thursday: The Jackson Hole Bank annual meeting begins, with the Fed Chair delivering a speech, which is the biggest macro bombshell of the week. Hawkish stances are highly likely to trigger a deep correction. 4. Friday: Multiple economic data points including PMI and Michigan inflation expectations will be released simultaneously. The previous rally has already priced in the easing expectations, and the market is full of bullish sentiment. If data or speeches fall short of expectations, positive news turns into negative news, leading to a bullish crush. Traders firmly refuse to chase rallies at high levels, as market volatility will sharply amplify. Focus on BTC's key support: if support is breached, a deep correction will officially begin. Wait until all risks are resolved before assessing opportunities. $BTC $ETH When Strive CEO shouted "the strongest bull market in history," gold bear Peter Schiff gave a completely opposite judgment: AI is not a boon for Bitcoin but a threat.
1. Schiff's Three Major Threat Arguments
1. Resource Competition: AI is competing with Bitcoin for "electricity" and "money"
Schiff believes that AI and Bitcoin are in direct competition for speculative capital, electricity, and data center resources. Bitcoin mining consumes about 138 terawatt-hours annually, equivalent to Argentina's national electricity consumption; AI computing power expansion is also devouring electricity resources. On the capital side, AI concept stocks will absorb a large amount of hot money by 2026, indeed diverting speculative funds from Bitcoin.
2. Security Threat: AI may discover code vulnerabilities overlooked by humans
Schiff's core warning is that AI might find vulnerabilities in Bitcoin's code, encryption algorithms, wallets, or network that humans have not yet detected, undermining its security and scarcity foundation.
3. Competitive Logic: AI and Bitcoin are competing for the same "believers"
AI is becoming the new "ultimate narrative"—with technological disruption, backing by major players, and clear commercial pathways. As capital and attention flow from Bitcoin to AI, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative faces the risk of dilution.
2. Counter Evidence: AI is becoming Bitcoin's "guardian"
Schiff's warning is not without reason, but another force is already at work in the market.
Bitcoin Red Team: Using AI to defend Bitcoin
In early August, the volunteer security team Bitcoin Red Team used cutting-edge AI models to scan 150 Bitcoin codebases, discovering more than a dozen vulnerabilities, averaging one serious vulnerability per person per hour. The team then expanded the scan to 390 Bitcoin-related projects, identifying 4,962 potential risks, including 85 critical vulnerabilities and 635 high-risk issues. Developer Calle bluntly stated "the situation is very bad," but emphasized the team is reporting vulnerabilities to project maintainers.
This means: AI can be both a weapon for attackers and a shield for defenders. Discovering vulnerabilities itself is not scary; what is scary is when those who find vulnerabilities do not report them.
3. Is Schiff's Threat Argument Reasonable?
Reasonable aspects: Resource competition is real. AI data centers are competing for electricity, land, and capital, while Bitcoin miners are transforming into AI infrastructure providers (such as Bitdeer, Ionic Digital), proving both are indeed vying for the same resources. Security risks are also real—AI's code auditing capabilities far exceed humans.
Biased aspects: Schiff overlooks a key fact—Bitcoin's core security does not rely on "perfect" code but on decentralized consensus and incentive structures. Even if AI finds vulnerabilities, Bitcoin's network of thousands of developers and miners worldwide forms a vast ecosystem capable of rapid response and repair. Moreover, Schiff equates "AI finding vulnerabilities" with "Bitcoin being hacked," which is a logical leap—finding vulnerabilities and exploiting them are two different things; Bitcoin's PoW mechanism and global node network are the strongest security layers.
4. Summary
Schiff's threat argument offers a valuable warning: in the AI era, Bitcoin's security cannot rest on past achievements. The Bitcoin Red Team's AI auditing actions prove that the Bitcoin ecosystem is already arming itself with AI—using AI to find vulnerabilities, fix vulnerabilities, and fight AI with AI.
Schiff says AI is competing with Bitcoin for electricity, money, and attention—that is true. But a more important narrative is unfolding: AI is becoming the Bitcoin ecosystem's strongest "white-hat hacker," and the Bitcoin network is becoming the scarcest "digital gold" in the AI era. The real threat is not AI itself but whether the Bitcoin community can maintain sufficient vigilance and action in the AI era.
$BTC $ETH $SOL The U.S. midterm elections won't be voted on until November, but the market is already getting restless.
This time, it just so happens that the crypto space and the U.S. stock market I've been studying recently are connected.
On August 19, Trump mentioned Crypto again at the White House, calling on Congress to push the CLARITY Act.
I briefly looked over this bill; its main goal is to further clarify the regulatory rules for Crypto.
Which assets are securities or commodities, and whether the SEC or CFTC should regulate them.
These previously vague issues, if actually implemented later, could at least reduce a lot of regulatory uncertainty.
In the past, when seeing Trump make statements, it was easy to think that the subsequent rise in BTC and crypto concept stocks was all because of that.
So this time, I reviewed what else was happening in the market at that time.
- On the same day, the U.S. Treasury also announced increasing the repurchase scale of some 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion.
- Just the day before, the 30-year Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.34%, a new high since 2007.
Simply put, the interest paid by Treasury bonds is getting higher and higher, so stocks and Crypto naturally face greater pressure.
After the Treasury's announcement, the 30-year Treasury yield fell back to around 5.19%, and U.S. stocks, gold, and BTC all rose.
By the 20th, Crypto continued to strengthen.
BTC climbed back above $70,000.
Coinbase rose about 6%.
Strategy rose about 4%.
Circle rose about 3.8%.
Seeing this, I gained a deeper understanding of this market movement.
Previously, when seeing Trump support Crypto, I would only think about whether BTC had positive news.
Now, after systematically studying the U.S. stock market, I realize that the same market movement also connects policies, Congress, Treasury yields, and listed companies.
Recently, in the U.S. midterm elections, the Crypto industry itself has already invested a lot of money, hoping to influence future regulatory directions.
So this time, I added a new knowledge point.
Political news can't just be seen as good or bad news.
You also have to see whether it changes regulatory expectations, interest rate environments, and the business of related companies.
#U.S.Stocks #Crypto 📌 ETH just surged to 2550 then pulled back to 2441, is this a bull comeback or a bull trap?
ETH violently rallied 30% from 1850 to 2550, causing countless short liquidations, even Jiang Zhuoer called it a "90% bull market." But now the price has retraced to 2441, BTC is sideways, SOL, DOGE, XRP are all declining, and TRUMP has plummeted 6.6%.
A truly healthy bull market must have sector rotation and hot spots passing the baton, not just ETH standing out alone. This rally is driven by ETF inflows, short squeeze liquidations, and regulatory expectations, but these are only short-term catalysts, not sufficient conditions for a reversal.
If ETH can't hold above 2550 with volume or even breaks below 2400, this is most likely just a decent rebound. Bull markets have many spikes; brothers who chased high with high leverage are probably suffering now.
My strategy: keep the spot base position unchanged, hold a light contract position with stop loss, exit if it breaks below 2380. What do you think? Will ETH surge to 2600 or retest 2200? Let's discuss in the comments👇
#ETH #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #ReboundOrReversal #RiskManagement
$ETH When Meme Becomes the "Entry Point" — Robinhood Co-founder Admits Coin-Stock Meme Has Exceeded Expectations, Tokenization Is Rewriting Financial Distribution Logic
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1. From "Unexpected" to "Exceeding Expectations": An Accidental Cold Start
Robinhood co-founder Vlad Tenev candidly stated on a podcast aired on August 24 that the "unique liquidity pools and protocols combining Meme coins, core crypto assets, and stock tokens" built by developers on Robinhood Chain have exceeded the company's initial expectations.
This is not just official politeness but an acknowledgment of the facts. Data confirms this deviation: of the $135 million total locked value on Robinhood Chain, tokenized RWA accounts for only about $12.81 million, while Meme coin trading far surpasses RWA. Meme coins have become the de facto cold start tool, serving a user acquisition function—assets like CASHCAT are fulfilling this role. In the first week after Robinhood Chain launched, DEX trading volume exceeded $3.1 billion, ranking among the top five blockchains by volume; on July 11, single-day Meme DEX trading volume surged to $1.3 billion, surpassing Solana. Since the mainnet launch on July 1, about six weeks ago, on-chain developers have used Meme coins to make stock tokens the distribution entry point.
2. Meme as the "Entry Point," Stock Tokens as the "Destination"
Tenev provided a clear positioning: Meme coins are treated as an "entry point" or "reward mechanism" connecting users to real stock tokens. Tokenized stock trading volume on Uniswap on Robinhood Chain has reached $1 billion for the first time.
Currently, Robinhood has launched 190 tokenized U.S. stocks, supporting 24/7 trading and covering over 120 countries. Users transfer stocks on-chain as easily as moving Bitcoin.
Robinhood stock tokens currently cover 191 assets, with a total value of about $32.2 million, accounting for 1.34% of the $2.4 billion tokenized stock market. Supply has doubled in the past 30 days, making it the fastest-growing issuer among the top six. The overall tokenized stock market has surged from a few hundred million dollars at the beginning of 2025 to $2.8 billion, covering 3,374 assets.
3. The Underlying Logic of Coin-Stock Meme: Why Does It Work?
Coin-stock Meme is not simply "riding the hype"; it solves a practical problem: traditional stock tokens lack user reach, while Meme coins naturally have distribution efficiency.
The speculative nature of Meme coins attracts users into the Robinhood Chain ecosystem → users engage with liquidity pools and protocols for stock tokens → some users convert into stock token holders. Data shows that Robinhood Chain's DEX trading volume fell from a peak of $878 million to $241 million, a 72.5% drop, but the number of transactions, total locked value, and stablecoin supply all hit record highs. Trading volume decreased, but the ecosystem is deepening.
4. Bigger Ambition: Increasing U.S. Stock Ownership from 50% to 95%
Tenev's vision goes further: he hopes to raise the proportion of U.S. households owning stocks from about 50% before Robinhood to 65%, and ultimately push it beyond 95%. Tokenization is the key means to achieve this—making high-quality U.S. stocks and other RWA easier to distribute globally.
However, this vision faces real obstacles. The lack of domestic stock tokens in the U.S. market is a "significant gap" in Robinhood's asset tokenization layout. On August 19, Tenev called on U.S. policymakers to update securities regulations to allow tokenized stocks to trade domestically, citing three core reasons: real-time settlement, 24/7 trading, and asset portability. He revisited the January 2021 GameStop incident, pointing out that the clearinghouse's T+2 settlement cycle margin requirements forced Robinhood to restrict buying—the on-chain settlement could eliminate this risk during peak market stress.
5. CZ's Reminder: Can the Narrative Detach from the Meme Attribute?
Binance founder CZ expressed support for coin-stock Meme on the X platform: "This is certainly fresh and interesting. But it is necessary to ensure that issuers can indeed fulfill their obligations."
This is a key reminder. The 190 U.S. stock tokens currently launched rely on custody, clearing, and corporate action handling mechanisms behind them, which are the real test of whether the tokenization narrative can move beyond the Meme attribute. Robinhood stock tokens are backed 1:1 by the underlying stocks and pass through dividends, but holders do not directly own the stocks themselves. Tenev also stated that as regulatory frameworks mature, token designs will gradually evolve into financial instruments carrying full shareholder rights.
6. Summary
This statement from Robinhood's co-founder reveals a fact in progress: Meme coins are becoming the distribution entry point for tokenized stocks, and on-chain developers have already proven this path with community power. When the speculative attribute of Meme coins collides with the asset attribute of stock tokens in the same liquidity pool, it opens not a new speculative channel but a distribution channel converting hundreds of millions of crypto users into stock holders. The true inflection point of tokenization may not be the moment of regulatory approval but when users enter the ecosystem through Meme and find the reason they stay is the stock tokens themselves.
$TRUMP 8.24日$BTC $ETH 行情分析：中旬变盘完美预言，牛来最好的操作是什么？ 8.10日科长写下这篇分析时，提到17-20号变盘向上，大多数人是不屑一顾的。如今行情走出，就大级别来说，确实应该改变无脑空的思维惯性了，当然不是不能空，而是在一些支撑的位置应该转变思路做多或者买入现货，而不是玩命追空还想着暴跌去更低的地方。 当前大饼的行情内，要关注再次进入4小时窄幅后的方向选择，是继续向上方打到8w以上插针回调，还是横完画门？这两种走势都有可能，具体就要看4小时这里窄幅走出后判断了。 关键点位上，短线支撑73600附近，这里可能是合约上可以做做反弹的位置，更低的位置去关注70500上下是否给买入现货的机会。 以太上，短线做多的话2275附近可以考虑，更大级别买现货可以看是否有插针到2145附近的机会了。 牛来牛中的行情，并不是会一直涨，反而会伴随着反复的洗盘，上下针的行情，所以在这段行情内，想靠合约去完成大的获利非常困难。真正的突破只发生在10％的行情内，而90％的行情都是会消磨你的耐心和本金，甚至发生黑天鹅葬送你的所有本金。没有好的运气和机会是很难靠合约赚到真正的大钱的。 最好的操作Strive CEO Matt Cole recently publicly stated: The Bitcoin bear market has ended, and the next cycle could become the strongest in history. He believes that three forces are converging: the long-term weakening of the US dollar, the rising demand for scarce assets in the AI era, and the BTC/gold ratio strengthening again. As the CEO of a Nasdaq-listed company holding nearly 20,000 BTC, his judgment deserves serious consideration.
1. Weakening US Dollar: The Ongoing Macro Narrative
The US Dollar Index recently dropped to around 98.70, hovering near its lowest level since mid-May. Citibank has sharply lowered its three-month forecast for the US Dollar Index from 102.12 to 98.34. The US Treasury has expanded long-term Treasury repurchase operations, and the 30-year US Treasury yield has fallen from 5.3% to around 5.1%. Ray Dalio warned that the US debt crisis could erupt within a year at the earliest and recommends allocating 10%-15% to gold and a small amount to Bitcoin.
Weakening US dollar = Bitcoin priced in dollars appreciates relatively. When the global reserve currency’s credit is questioned, Bitcoin’s fixed supply naturally attracts capital flows.
2. AI Era: New Pricing Logic for Scarce Assets
Cole’s core logic is that in an AI-driven prosperous world, capital will chase “scarce assets” that cannot be replicated.
This view is echoed by the market: veteran investor Visser has shifted overweight positions toward “scarcity trades” — Bitcoin, silver, and precious metals — calling Bitcoin the “purest AI trade.” Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood shares a similar view: with the arrival of an AI-created era of abundance, Bitcoin as a scarce asset will shine even brighter.
AI is compressing valuation multiples of all traditional growth assets, making Bitcoin—with its fixed supply and no competitors—a natural destination for capital seeking “decay-resistant” hedges.
3. BTC/Gold Ratio: Strong Technical Signal
Cole points out that the BTC/gold ratio bottomed in February 2026, about five months earlier than Bitcoin’s USD price bottom in July. As of August 21, XAU/BTC (gold to Bitcoin ratio) closed at 0.0594, with an intraday low of 0.0578, close to the May low of 0.0577.
Bitcoin is breaking out against both the dollar and gold simultaneously. Over the past five trading days, BTC rose 23% to $77,375, while gold rose 13% to $4,612 — Bitcoin outperformed gold. When Bitcoin starts outperforming the “ultimate safe-haven asset” gold, the market signal is strong enough.
4. Market Validation: Data Doesn’t Lie
· BTC approaches $80,000: rebounded to about $77,700 on August 24, nearing the $80,000 mark
· ETF inflows surge: weekly net inflow about $2.6 billion
· Crypto card monthly transaction volume exceeds $1 billion: annual growth over 3x, stablecoins becoming everyday payment tools
· Institutions continue accumulating: Strive repurchased 400 BTC this week via preferred stock financing; El Salvador added 7 BTC in the past 7 days, holding 7,751 BTC
As Bitcoin nears $80,000, gold breaks $4,600, Ray Dalio recommends allocating gold and Bitcoin, and VanEck predicts BTC will reach $500,000 by 2029 — these signals are intensifying within the same time window.
5. The Other Side of the Coin: Two “Contrarian Indicators” Voices
Cole’s “strongest bull market in history” judgment is not without opposition. Peter Schiff posted on August 24 that AI poses a threat rather than a benefit to Bitcoin, arguing that both the AI industry and Bitcoin mining heavily rely on electricity and data center resources, potentially leading to direct competition for resource allocation in the future. Coinbase premium index remains negative, indicating that demand in the US spot market has not meaningfully returned.
Summary
Cole’s “strongest bull market in history” judgment is based on three structural forces: weakening US dollar, AI-driven demand for scarce assets, and BTC/gold ratio breakout. These three are indeed happening simultaneously.
But structural tailwinds ≠ straight-line rise. Short-term profit-taking, regulatory uncertainty, and fluctuating macro data may trigger pullbacks. When Strive’s CEO calls it the “strongest in history,” market divergence is precisely where opportunity lies — a true bull market never starts when everyone agrees. Bitcoin at $80,000 may just be the starting point of a bigger narrative.
$BTC I am Cige. After BTC surged to 78,800, it fell back to around 77,000 and is oscillating, still operating at a high level overall. Last week, ETFs had a total net inflow of about $2.6 billion, with BTC accounting for $1.9 billion and ETH $697 million, marking the strongest weekly inflow since October last year. Institutions have been continuously buying above 77,000; this rally has already gained spot market buying support starting from short covering.
After the price quickly rose, it entered a high-level consolidation, which is a normal process of a short squeeze transitioning into trend recovery. Around 77,000 is the focal point of the bulls and bears battle. If the price can stabilize here, the upward structure remains intact. If it breaks below 75,000, it indicates that the short-term correction is stronger than expected.
The question is whether ETF funds can continue to absorb profit-taking at high levels. If inflows continue, the short squeeze will transition into trend recovery. If inflows slow down, the pressure from the quick price pullback and leverage volatility may still increase. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Cige has finished speaking; you can ponder it. $BTC Samsung is wildly distributing 80 billion, why is the stock price being crushed?
Today the South Korean stock market is unusually lively, KOSPI plunged, Samsung Electronics once sharply dropped, but SK Hynix remained relatively firm
Clearly Samsung just released the largest shareholder return in history, so why is the capital not buying in?
The core contradiction is that there is plenty of money, but not enough certainty
🚩Samsung Electronics $SAMSUNG
Although a huge return plan was launched, the exact amount of funds that can actually be used for buybacks and cancellations remains to be determined
🚩SK Hynix $SKHY
Directly announced a 4 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation of treasury stock, and promised a return exceeding 50% of FCF over the next three years, with an extremely clear fulfillment path
💰Capital choice
Samsung = phones + foundry + storage + AI
SK Hynix = purely an AI memory flexible play
The market currently prefers targets with high AI purity and thorough stock cancellation in the short term
✍️
Fundamentally, Samsung's HBM4 has entered mass production with a clear catching-up momentum, this looks more like a repricing of capital style
💡Key focus going forward
The real implementation strength of Samsung's subsequent buybacks and cancellations
The sustained support of SK Hynix's 4 trillion KRW buyback on the stock price
If the AI memory boom continues, with profit growth, massive cash inflows, and the HBM4 catching-up logic all realized simultaneously, Samsung might actually create interesting opportunities by being sold off
The core divergence in South Korean semiconductors now is not whether AI has a market, but whether the money earned should continue to be invested in capacity expansion or be fully returned to shareholders?
#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 $SNDK ended its previous sharp attack toward 1827 USD and is now narrowly hovering along the neckline edge near 1541 USD after a continuous pullback of over 15%.
The price quickly dropped nearly three hundred dollars from the high point within a week, and the downward pressure is fully testing the dense trading platform between 1540 and 1570 USD.
The NAND price increase in Q3 sharply dropped from over 70% in the previous quarter to about 20%, and the expected terminal order cuts accelerated the high-level profit-taking of previous gains.
The market has detached from the one-way drive of historical performance and is now dominated by the slowdown in price increase slope and high-level escape selling pressure, jointly leading the short-term structural rebalancing.
If bulls stabilize in the current area and recover the 1654 USD resistance with volume, the upward channel will regain support, and the market is expected to retest the 1725 to 1828 USD range.
If the 1542 USD support is confirmed broken and cannot be quickly recovered, a structural breakdown will open a downward correction space toward 1500 USD and even 1380 USD.
Before the price effectively stands above the key turning point of 1600 USD, any small-scale rallies still belong to resistance within the downward channel.
The most critical variable in the coming week is whether a volume-supported stop-fall signal can appear at the 1540 USD level.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡$UNITREE Why can the market give $$TSLA a high P/E ratio of over 300 times but not $UNITREE? Setting aside the progress in robotics technology of both companies, Tesla, although having a high P/E ratio, has a price-to-book ratio of only about 16 times, indicating it has a large amount of net assets supporting its stock price, whereas $UNITREE has both high price-to-book and P/E ratios; secondly, Tesla has mature electric vehicle products as revenue support, along with an energy business that can serve as the infrastructure for future robotics AI new business, which $UNITREE lacks. Musk's involvement in digital currency, commercial aerospace, and social software can create an ecological advantage for the robotics business (knowledge payment - model token payment, data resources, aerospace scenarios for robot applications and aerospace technology feedback, and natural overlap between automotive autonomous driving and robotics technology, such as SLAM). Moreover, Tesla and $UNITREE's R&D investments are not even on the same scale, and robotics requires continuous iterative investment. Tesla has mature product market revenue as a funding source, while the latter can only rely on scam-like fundraising or government subsidies. Comparing the two, the market definitely votes with its feet on $UNITREE's valuation! Biden tries to rescue the bond market, saving gold and $BTC
The U.S. Treasury stepped in, but the market was not convinced.
Last week, Treasury Secretary Biden doubled the scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury buybacks to at least $4 billion each time, attempting to put the brakes on long-term yields. The 30-year yield did plunge more than 9 basis points in a single day, but this "effect" lasted less than a day before quickly rebounding. Meanwhile, the dollar index fell below 99, gold broke through $4600, and Bitcoin surged over 25% in a single week.
Biden wanted to save the bond market, but the market funneled money into gold and Bitcoin instead.
Why didn't it stick?
First, the scale is vastly different. U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the buyback increment accounts for less than 0.05%. As the head of fixed income at DWS said: "It's like throwing a paper towel into a tsunami."
Second, the tool is mismatched. Buybacks are essentially "borrowing short to buy long," with no reduction in total debt. The Treasury cannot create funds out of thin air and cannot truly change long-term supply and demand.
Third, policy conflict. The Treasury wants to suppress interest rates, while the Federal Reserve aims to curb inflation; these two forces cancel each other out.
Fourth, credit overextension. The Treasury Secretary personally stepping in is equivalent to admitting anxiety to the market. This buyback came only two weeks after the last quarterly refinancing report, breaking the Treasury's "regular and predictable" principle upheld since the 1970s. Jefferies' chief economist warned that investors may demand higher risk premiums when holding Treasuries in the future.
Biden wanted to put a band-aid on the bond market, but the market sees a structural wound. The surge in gold and Bitcoin is not a flight to safety but a vote on the dollar's credit. The real test will be Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole this Friday.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $ETH $TRUMP BTC and ETH: In the era of stock competition, capital is voting with its feet to choose direction
After the recent rebound and surge, the crypto market has fallen into a high-level oscillation stalemate. BTC has been tugging repeatedly between $75,000 and $79,000, while ETH fluctuates widely around $2380-$2580. The market is generally waiting for the Jackson Hole meeting to provide direction, but it overlooks a core fact: this is not a full-scale incremental bull market, but a typical stock competition scenario. Limited capital is making clear choices between the two leading coins, with funds of different attributes diverging, creating seemingly synchronous but actually differentiated market trends. Understanding the logic behind the stock capital's choices allows one to grasp the likely direction of subsequent market movements.
First, look at BTC, which is the preferred choice for "allocation-type capital" among stock funds, following a steady recovery path. In the past month, the US spot BTC ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of over $3.7 billion, with top institutional products contributing more than 70% of the increment. The core logic for this type of capital entering the market is the clarity of regulatory compliance combined with rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, positioning BTC as an alternative hedge asset in large-scale asset allocation, seeking mid-to-long-term valuation recovery gains rather than short-term speculative arbitrage. This is reflected in the market as typical low volatility and strong support characteristics: intraday pullbacks are generally controlled within 3%, and every dip is supported by buying, with rare extreme price swings.
However, due to the conservative nature of the capital, BTC's upward explosive power is relatively limited. When the price approaches the $80,000 integer mark, the trapped positions formed between $78,000 and $82,000 by the end of 2025 are released in concentration, creating strong resistance; meanwhile, early stock whales sell off at highs, further suppressing the pace of the rally. Without large-scale incremental capital entering, it is difficult for stock allocation funds alone to quickly break through strong resistance zones, and it is more likely to gradually digest selling pressure through oscillating upward movement. Technically, $75,000 is the core cost line for institutional positions in this round and also the dividing line between strength and weakness; holding above it maintains a mid-term bullish pattern.
Next, look at ETH, which is the main battlefield for "speculative capital" among stock funds, following a flexible market path. Compared to BTC's institution-led structure, ETH's capital composition is more diverse: at the base are long-term fundamental funds locked in staking, with total network staking exceeding 42.6 million coins, accounting for 35.3%, supporting the price floor from the supply side; on top are large amounts of short-term speculative funds, derivatives leverage funds, and retail follow-up funds, which pursue short-term excess returns, driven by speculative narratives and sentiment inflection points, pushing prices to rise and fall rapidly.
This creates ETH's characteristics of high elasticity and high volatility: during rebounds, gains outperform BTC, and during corrections, losses are also greater. On the capital side, the past month has seen a cumulative net inflow of about $1.1 billion in spot ETH ETFs, only about 30% of BTC's, and highly concentrated in a single top institutional product, indicating much lower participation of institutional allocation funds compared to BTC. Supporting short-term large fluctuations are more the sentiment funds brought by the warming AI+Crypto narrative and the leverage amplification effect in the derivatives market. This kind of market pulse is strong but short-lived; once narrative heat fades or macro expectations shift, profit-taking tends to trigger rapid corrections. Technically, $2380-$2420 is a short-term sentiment support zone; once effectively broken, the adjustment space will open up.
Overall, the core feature of stock competition is capital stratification and market differentiation. BTC earns money from valuation recovery, steady and solid, suitable for mid-to-long-term funds with lower risk tolerance; ETH earns money from sentiment speculation, highly elastic, suitable for short-term funds with higher risk tolerance. Neither is absolutely better or worse; it depends on whether it matches your trading cycle and risk preference. Whether the subsequent market can shift from stock to incremental depends on the Federal Reserve policy signals after the Jackson Hole meeting and whether ETF funds can continue to flow in and spread across the industry.
In terms of operation, the two require different strategies: BTC is suitable for a mid-term allocation approach, holding the base position, buying in batches at the support zone on pullbacks, not blindly chasing highs nor shorting lightly; ETH is suitable for swing trading, taking profits in batches at resistance zones on rallies, waiting for pullbacks to stabilize before considering low entry opportunities, strictly controlling position size and leverage to avoid catching tops in sentiment peaks. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level This time, don't translate “财政部回购美债” as "the US started flooding the market" again.
It's more like a traffic jam in the bond market, with the Treasury sending out a few more tow trucks: transactions go smoothly, old bonds sell better, but the number of cars on the road hasn't decreased.
The US continues to issue new bonds afterward; deficits, supply, and inflation can't be suppressed every time by a $4 billion buyback.
Kashkari said US Treasuries haven't malfunctioned, with a very clear subtext: as long as trading can run normally, no matter how ugly long-term yields look, the Fed won't step in specifically to rescue, and policy still focuses on inflation.
This is a breather for $BTC and $ETH, not a get-out-of-jail-free card.
Yields falling eases valuation pressure a bit, so BTC can still hold around 77,000, and ETH hovers near 2440; but if auction demand weakens or inflation heats up, long-term rates will rise again, and these two highly elastic assets will take the hit first.
On the other hand, $XAU is more interesting. Gold topping above 4640 indicates that funds are enjoying the yield decline on one hand, but on the other, they don't really believe the US fiscal issues are truly resolved.
The more the bond market needs "maintenance," the easier it is for gold's monetary credit story to find buyers.
What we really need to watch next isn't how much prices rise on buyback day, but whether new bond auctions find buyers and if overseas demand is willing to return.
So I don't treat buybacks as QE, only as a painkiller.
In the short term, watch if yields can stabilize; in the long term, watch if deficits and bond issuance converge.
Painkillers can make the market comfortable for a few days but can't cure the root problem.
#卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ $TRUMP TRUMP 2.5 — down 4%, team dumping weighs on price.
Rallied to 3.60 on fake new-token rumors, now fading back to 2.50.
The real pressure: team-linked wallets moved 3.837M tokens (~$9.33M) to OKX yesterday, then sold 1.1M at $2.68 avg this morning for 2.94M USDC. Over $10M in total selling hitting the market.
Eric Trump already called the new token rumors "completely untrue" and warned of scams.
Key levels: support 2.45 / 2.22, resistance 2.52–2.54.Trump is the world's number one scammer. Yesterday, the Trump team transferred 3,837,000 TRUMP tokens (worth $9.33 million) to OKX. Since early this morning, the TRUMP token team address has sold 1,100,000 $TRUMP by adding unilateral liquidity, exchanging it for 2.94 million USDC.
Their team first stirred up attention among the community by spreading fake news that Trump was about to issue new tokens. Damn, once Trump pumped the price up, they started dumping. The president of a country is really shameless to this extent.
Do not touch coins like $TRUMP and $WLFI; they are all products of the Trump family. In the future, brothers, avoid anything related to the Trump family!#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
The recent geopolitical game between the US and Iran has heated up again. The US has implemented the strictest sanctions against Iran in history, blocking Iran's oil maritime exports, directly impacting global energy supply. Energy-driven inflation expectations have risen again, with far-reaching effects on the macroeconomic landscape.
This round of sanctions is unprecedented in intensity, causing a cliff-like drop in Iran's crude oil exports. The current daily loading volume is only one-seventh of the pre-war level. Coupled with increased shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and tight global crude oil inventories and refining capacity, oil prices have continued to strengthen in the short term, creating rigid inflationary pressure.
The core market logic has changed: previously, the market was betting on cooling inflation and easing expectations, but now geopolitical disturbances have brought a risk of a second rebound in energy inflation. Energy is the cost source for the entire industrial chain; rising oil prices will suppress the global pace of interest rate cuts. US Treasury yields are easier to rise than fall, directly tightening overall market liquidity.
Personal view: This is one of the most critical macro variables recently. The return of energy inflation is unfavorable for a unilateral surge in risk assets. BTC and ETH will enter a hedged oscillation pattern with both bullish and bearish factors.
Bullish side: Geopolitical risk aversion supports the market floor, limiting downside space;
Bearish side: Inflation stickiness strengthens, delaying the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and suppressing the height of the bulls.
Practical approach: At this stage, abandon the logic of chasing unilateral gains and adopt an overall cautious oscillation view. Short-term volatility will be amplified; avoid heavy positions chasing highs. Prefer low-leverage range operations in contracts, focusing on waiting for inflation data and oil price trends to confirm direction.
Key follow-ups: Oil price sustainability, US inflation data, and whether the US-Iran situation further intensifies."Ceffu Withdraws 120 Million USDC in a Single Day, Ethena's Market Making Strategy and Yield Shift"
Custody giant Ceffu withdrew 120 million USD from Ethena in one day.
The largest single transaction hit 30 million directly, sparking rumors of a potential run on the market.
But looking deeper reveals the truth: the network-wide funding rate has been suppressed to 5%.
Previously, earning funding fees yielded an easy 18% annualized profit, but now it no longer covers costs.
Major market makers decisively redeemed and took profits, converting real money back into cold wallets for risk avoidance.
Even injecting a 1 billion credit patch can't stop the on-chain spot pools from being continuously drained. $BTC ETH breakout? But Er Gou advises you not to rush in! The big environment is brewing a major move!
Brothers, ETH has something going on today!
The daily candle closed above the 2400 resistance level, directly breaking the previous bearish structure of "lower highs and lower lows." While BTC is still hovering around 77000, ETH has already taken the lead in breaking out on the daily chart.
But don’t get excited yet, the external environment is preparing a big move.
First, the US and Iran are getting serious. Basent officially announced today the "strictest sanctions in history" against Iran, and Iran responded bluntly: if you dare to wage economic war, not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz! Last week, Brent crude oil rose 5.7%, and if this really escalates, oil prices will surge further.
Second, US Treasury bonds are warning. The 10-year Treasury yield soared to 4.73%, and the 30-year is nearing its highest level since 2007. Kashkari tried to downplay it saying "the market is normal," but funds are already flowing into gold and BTC.
Third, Nvidia AI servers are reported to have price increases over 15%. Storage chip costs are soaring, AI hardware prices are rising across the board, and inflation pressure hasn’t eased yet.
Er Gou’s bold take: ETH has broken out on the daily chart, but the macro environment is full of landmines—oil prices, US bonds, inflation, any one of these could drag the market down. Structural reversal ≠ a one-way rally; expect intense shakeouts at any time.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 Everyone is waiting for Wash this week.
On August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole. Wall Street calls it "Wash's most critical window to reshape the Fed's credibility."
Everyone is guessing: hawkish or dovish? Will there be a rate hike in September?
But I have an immature opinion——
What he says isn't actually that important.
Why?
Because the market has already told you with real actions:
Last week, Basset intervened to save the bond market—expanding long-term bond repos, trying to suppress U.S. Treasury yields.
And the result?
The dollar dropped nearly 1% that week, gold broke through $4600, and Bitcoin rose over 25% in a single week.
The Treasury Secretary personally intervened, but it was in vain. Instead, it triggered a "currency depreciation trade" for gold and Bitcoin.
Charlie McElligott from Nomura Securities directly pointed out: the strong rise in gold and Bitcoin reflects the market turning anxiety into a chase for currency depreciation and safe-haven assets.
This is the market's vote—it no longer trusts the Federal Reserve.
Three signals prove the Fed is "losing power":
Signal 1: Three dissenting votes at the July meeting—the sharpest internal split in nearly 10 years
On July 30, the Fed held rates steady at 9 to 3.
Cleveland Fed President Harker, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan all voted against, demanding a 25 basis point hike.
This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed had three dissenting votes in the same decision.
The June meeting was unanimous; just over a month later, it went from "unity" to "division."
What credibility does a central bank have if it can't even convince its own people?
Signal 2: No clear guidance after the meeting—not even pretending anymore
Since taking office in May, Wash has adhered to a "quieter Fed"—deliberately avoiding forward guidance, shortening policy statements, and being vague in press conferences.
The market interprets this as "insufficient determination to fight inflation."
Wash clearly stated that the Jackson Hole speech might focus on "macro framework reflection" rather than short-term rate guidance, implying "more likely to reshape policy narrative than to signal rate cuts."
What does that mean?
"I'm not going to tell you what I'm going to do; you guess yourself."
Signal 3: Top capital is voting with its feet
A June survey by Invesco shows that global sovereign funds managing about $29 trillion are shifting allocations away from U.S. Treasuries toward energy and physical assets.
Sixty percent of central banks explicitly state—the scale of U.S. debt is unsustainable, and the dollar's reserve status is being eroded.
Bridgewater founder Dalio directly said last Friday: investors should reduce bond holdings, allocate 10% to 15% to gold, and buy a "small amount" of Bitcoin.
The founder of the world's largest hedge fund says—don't trust U.S. debt, buy Bitcoin.
BTC is completing an "identity switch"
It is no longer just a "Fed-sensitive index."
Data from K33 Research shows: Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq is bottoming out, and Bitcoin's sensitivity to FOMC rate decisions is significantly below historical cycle levels.
Bitcoin's correlation with the global easing index changed from +0.21 before ETF approval to -0.778—this is not a gradual change but a structural reversal.
It is transforming from a "risk asset" into a "dollar credit hedge tool."
VanEck also said: fiscal-led concerns and structurally weakening dollar are providing institutional narrative support for Bitcoin as a hedging tool.
So, does it really matter if Wash is hawkish or dovish?
Hawkish? Continue raising rates—the economy can't bear it, and dollar credit continues to crack.
Dovish? Shift to easing—inflation keeps burning, and dollar purchasing power keeps falling.
Both paths point to the same direction: dollar credit is depreciating.
What Wash says only affects short-term volatility.
The trend of de-dollarization determines long-term pricing.
$BTC $XAU $CL #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
The boss has something to say
US-Iran sanctions have escalated again.
The US is preparing to announce a new round of sanctions on Iran, potentially extending to Iran's major trading partners. Iran's response is even tougher, equating support for sanctions to an "act of war," and threatening to restrict Gulf oil transport routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Although Iran allows some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the strait, these are individual authorizations and do not represent a full resumption of navigation. Brent and WTI rose 6.4% and 5.7% respectively last week, and diesel supply tensions are also intensifying.
This directly impacts macro expectations. Rising energy prices will push up inflation expectations; if inflation doesn't come down, the Federal Reserve won't ease up, long-term bond yields won't fall, and the ceiling for risk assets remains. This signals the same direction as the PMI hitting a four-year high—strong economy plus rising energy prices means the logic for rate hikes is accumulating again. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
On the market, Bitcoin dropped from 77,000 to fluctuate around 75,000. After all long positions are closed, wait for a pullback; stabilize between 73,000 and 74,000 before re-entering. Geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations are rising, so the cost-effectiveness of chasing longs in the short term is indeed low.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop-loss orders. Good luck.$SPCX fell from $136 to $133 in pre-market trading. The core issue lies in the risk appetite contraction triggered by the plunge in AI and semiconductor sectors, combined with the position battle involving 207.8 million shares short and a 20% unlocking wave.
After the pre-market price tested $136, it quickly retreated to $133, continuing the pattern of giving back gains after a pre-market spike. The $133 level serves as a short-term dense trading range, and whether this level holds or breaks directly determines if the short-term technical support fails.
The primary driver currently pricing the stock is the systemic risk appetite decline caused by the semiconductor and AI sector plunge; the second driver is the compression of valuation premiums due to intensified peer competition; the third driver is the upcoming release of the 20% unlocking portion following the Q2 earnings report.
The 207.8 million shares short position alters the continuity judgment of the downward price space. The extremely crowded short position means that positive news can easily trigger a short squeeze and covering. Meanwhile, the 20% unlocking portion changes the mid-term supply-demand balance judgment, establishing liquidity pressure on the supply side.
The trigger condition for the bullish breakout scenario is an unexpectedly positive progress in the Starship launch and a halt in the AI sector's decline. At this time, watch for a volume-backed breakout above the $136 pre-market high. If the price rebounds without volume and is blocked again at $134, this scenario is invalidated.
The trigger condition for the bearish scenario is Q2 earnings underperforming expectations combined with the 20% unlocking wave pressuring the market. Watch for a valid break below the $133 support level with increased volume. If the price recovers above $134 and triggers a covering wave, this scenario is invalidated.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, focus on the turnover characteristics at the $133 support level, the covering rhythm of the 207.8 million shares short position, and the changes in order book depth as the 20% unlocking period approaches.
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径Brothers, I just saw a set of data, quite interesting.
According to River statistics, there are currently 49.6 million adults in the US holding Bitcoin, accounting for 18.6% of the adult population. Those holding gold number 28.8 million, accounting for 10.8%. Bitcoin holders exceed gold holders by 21 million.
The key point is that this growth rate is really fierce. At the beginning of 2026, it was only 14.3%, and it has increased by more than 4 percentage points in half a year. A 16-year-old asset with a penetration growth rate crushing that of 5,000-year-old gold—this data is honestly a bit outrageous.
Another point: Americans hold about 42% of the globally circulating Bitcoin. US-listed companies hold about 1.24 million BTC, accounting for 92.7% of the total corporate Bitcoin holdings worldwide. The US government itself holds 328,372 BTC, worth over 23 billion USD. Globally, 37.5% of the mining power is also in the US.
Behind the data, there is actually one thing—Bitcoin is no longer just a toy for the geek circle. With ETFs paving the way, regulatory frameworks gradually becoming clear, and Americans being accustomed to managing their own money and investments, this penetration rate continues to rise.
For the market, the potential buying pool is expanding. 49.6 million means 1 in every 5 adults has touched BTC. Of course, many may have just bought 0.001 BTC to try it out, but once the base is formed, combined with ETF channels, institutional funds will push it up along this slope.BTC hovers around the $77,000 range, altcoins are still in a 'selective rebound' phase. What the market is really waiting for is not the next level of BTC, but rather confirmation of the flow of funds exiting BTC and ETH heading into altcoins. The facts confirmed from the original text are as follows: BTC is trading between $77,000 and $78,500, and ETH is testing the $2,400 to $2,500 range. There is steady demand for ETH through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On the other hand, altcoins like BEAT, BICO, KAITO, LAB, and SNDK have yet to show trading volumes that would confirm a recovery. From a valuation perspective, the current prices already largely reflect BTC's range maintenance and ETH's ETF-based downside support. However, two variables remain unreflected. One is whether the 'rotation' of funds leaving BTC and ETH into altcoins will materialize, and the other is whether that rotation will actually#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
This Jackson Hole, I think the market might be disappointed again — everyone wants to hear a "future interest rate roadmap" from Wash, but he most likely won't provide one.
Recently, the market has been oscillating between cooling employment and sticky inflation. When data is weak, it trades easing; when inflation expectations rise, it immediately trades higher rates for longer. What’s really missing isn’t a new set of data, but the logic behind the Fed’s decisions since Wash took office.
So this time, I’m not too concerned about how many "hawkish" or "dovish" words he uses.
I want to hear three questions: how he views the current inflation level, how much further employment weakness he can tolerate, and under what conditions rates would change.
Especially now that $BTC has just experienced a rapid rally, market risk appetite has clearly returned. At this point, betting on whether he’s hawkish or dovish seems less meaningful.
I used to think CPI, FOMC, and Jackson Hole events were must-catch moments, but later realized the market often trades expectations before the speech, experiences volatility during it, and only starts trading the real logic afterward.
So this time, I’m prepared to be a spectator. Patience is also part of macro trading.$BTC Bitcoin once approached $80,000.
It wasn't because an ETF was approved. It wasn't because the Federal Reserve loosened monetary policy.
It was because Washington surrendered.
From August 18 to August 20, within 72 hours — SEC proposals, CFTC taking action, the White House stepping up. The three-stage rocket of U.S. crypto policy ignited simultaneously.
This is not an ordinary positive news event. This is a watershed moment for U.S. crypto policy.
The enforcement era is over. The era of system building has begun. ETH’s stronger 24-hour gain while BTC holds near $77.5K looks more like selective rotation than a broad risk-on breakout. A test of $2,500 matters, but confirmation requires ETH to keep outperforming without BTC losing its footing.
Macro conditions still argue for restraint. Treasury buyback signals may support liquidity at the margin, while renewed Iran oil risk could revive inflation pressure. For now, I would treat crypto strength as constructive but tactical, not a clean regime shift.
Just my read, not advice.Bitcoin surged 25% in a single week, instantly splitting the community into two camps.
One camp claims the halving cycle is dead: ETF funds, corporate treasuries, and sovereign buyers have taken over the halving narrative. CZ and others have also mentioned a super cycle, believing that after the first wave of the rally, only shallow pullbacks will occur, rendering the old script obsolete.
The other camp sneers: this surge is driven by retail chasing the rally, while shorts have surrendered. Almost no one is bearish in the market. According to the principle that the contrary moves the way, if a major macro negative event hits in October, leveraged longs will be liquidated, the panic index will crash to extreme levels, marking the final washout. The old four-year cycle might actually close around October.
Two different judgments, but the same operational approach: never use contracts, only spot dollar-cost averaging. Those who believe in the super cycle should start buying evenly over 4 months now, holding for 2–3 years to wait for the top.
Those who believe in the old cycle should save their firepower to double down after October 4. If a terrifying waterfall comes, it’s like free money; if the market holds and grinds up, don’t move your original position. Don’t aim for a crazy double in the next cycle; steadily earning a 3x recovery is enough to adjust your position.
Whether the bull market has arrived or not is not important. What matters is that you are not liquidated by leverage during the cycle switch and that you are still on board. Dollar-cost averaging spot, controlling your impulses, and saving bullets for October is more reliable than betting on whether the cycle lives or dies.
$TRUMP $ETH $BTC
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 Trade negotiations between the US and Canada completely broke down at the final stage, and the originally anticipated cooperation agreement was declared void. Starting from the early morning of August 22 Eastern Time, the US officially imposed a 50% high tariff on Canadian imports worth $20 billion, covering categories such as alcoholic beverages, furniture, textiles, and electronic devices. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau quickly responded strongly by halting all subsequent trade talks and introducing reciprocal countermeasures, planning to impose tariffs of the same scale on US goods starting September 8, covering categories including steel, dairy products, agricultural machinery, and electronic components. The incident brings five core impacts: 1. Renewed inflation pressure in the US The cost of Canadian imports has risen sharply, and manufacturers are likely to pass the tariff costs onto end consumers, further driving up domestic prices and exacerbating inflation risks. 2. Pressure on Canadian export industries Canada's economy heavily depends on the US export market, and high tariffs will directly impact domestic manufacturing and export companies, significantly damaging revenue and order volumes. 3. Increased risk to the North American automotive supply chain Steel, aluminum, vehicles, and parts have long been core points of contention in negotiations; if tariff conflicts continue to escalate, the entire North American automotive industry chain will face dual pressures of cost and delivery. 4. Pressure on global risk assets The escalation of trade confrontation will suppress market risk appetite, potentially amplifying US stock volatility; capital will flow into safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold. 5. Surge in uncertainty of the North American free trade system This conflict significantly disrupts the stability of the USMCA framework, and further escalation by both sides cannot be ruled out.The ultimate rotation rule in the crypto circle: ETH sets the temperature, DOGE sets the frenzy
Looking back at the two super bull markets in 2017 and 2021, the capital rotation rhythm in the crypto market was almost completely replicated, never deviating.
The first phase of the bull market is always Bitcoin monopolizing liquidity.
The market's base holdings are solidified, the market emerges from the despair of the bear market, and capital prioritizes the safest, deepest, and most stable BTC to complete the valuation repair of the entire market.
In the second phase of the bull market, Ethereum takes the baton and becomes the true signal for the altcoin season to start.
After BTC stabilizes the overall trend, incremental risk capital begins to seek premium space. As the leading public chain and the mother of altcoins, ETH is the barometer of the entire small-cap coin market.
As long as ETH starts to continuously warm up, oscillate upward, and strengthen its trend, it means: market risk appetite is fully opened, and the altcoin season is officially unlocked.
The final and most violent phase of the bull market is always the acceleration of sentiment coins like DOGE.
History is always consistent:
When ETH continues to rise, the main force's chip profits are full, gains blunt, and upward space compresses.
A large amount of profit capital overflowing from mainstream coins is no longer satisfied with steady gains and begins to frantically chase high elasticity, pure sentiment, and fundamentally unbound targets.
And DOGE is the best liquidity relief valve in the entire market. $BTC $ETH $DOGE [Stablecoins are evolving from trading tools into real everyday currency]
In July, crypto payment card spending reached approximately $1.04B, more than tripling year-over-year, with $USDC and $USDT accounting for over 70%. Visa currently has more than 160 stablecoin card projects launched or in development.
What’s truly noteworthy is that consumers can directly spend on-chain assets while merchants still receive fiat currency, with no need to understand wallets, private keys, or blockchain. This effectively leverages Visa’s existing global network to integrate stablecoins directly into daily life.
For Circle ($CRCL), the increase in USDC use cases is indeed positive, but growth in card transactions may not directly translate into proportional revenue. The focus should next be on USDC’s circulation, market share, and how much revenue partners will take.
If USDC can be used worldwide directly, would you still consider it a "cryptocurrency" or the next form of the US dollar?