#LastNFPBeforeFOMC

📊 BTC & FED WATCH 👀 The market is getting nervous about a possible September Fed rate hike, especially as oil prices rise and Treasury yields remain elevated. But here’s the key: expectations are not the same as reality. 🔥 The upcoming U.S. jobs and CPI data could still change the Fed’s decision. Stay patient. Watch the data, not the noise. 🧠₿ #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoNews #Fed #InterestRates #BitcoinNews #CryptoMarket #Trading #Web3 #DeFi #DYOR

The probability of a rate hike in September continues to rise After the Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a rate hike in September surged directly from 35% to nearly 60%-66%. The latest CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a rate hike has reached 66.1%. The non-farm payroll data this Friday (September 4) will be a key catalyst—if employment exceeds expectations, the rate hike expectation will be confirmed, and the market may take another hit. $BTC $ETH $SOL #Robinhood

August payrolls missed hard (38K), and hike odds went from 68-72% down to ~45% almost overnight. The NFP test I flagged actually broke the hawkish narrative, at least for now. Official BLS NFP still due Sept 4 that's the next real trigger. This is exactly why I don't call things settled before the data shows up.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds

NFP: THE NEXT CRYPTO TEST Markets now price around a 70% chance of a 25bps Fed hike in September. The September 4 NFP is the key test, with weak labor data potentially challenging the hawkish outlook. Strong NFP → higher hike odds → pressure on $BTC, $ETH and $SOL. Weak NFP → lower hike expectations → potential crypto relief. Meanwhile, spot ETF flows remain crucial for $BTC as macro pressure and rising yields weigh on risk assets. NFP + Fed + ETF flows could shape September’s crypto direction.

BTC has slipped below the $77,000 level. US equity futures are also trading lower, while the DXY is moving higher, adding pressure to risk assets. Pre-market snapshot: ▫️ Nasdaq futures: -0.03% ▫️ S&P 500 futures: -0.29% Risk sentiment remains cautious heading into the US session. #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes #DellAIServerBeat

#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds US economic data is sending mixed signals ahead of Friday’s August payroll report. Manufacturing remained in expansion territory, but the ISM index declined from 55.6 to 54.6. July JOLTS job openings reached 7.27 million, missing the 7.31 million consensus while improving from June’s revised figure. These numbers suggest the economy is slowing at the margin without showing a clear collapse in labor demand. Markets are currently assigning roughly a two-thirds probability to a 25-basis-point September rate hike. Friday’s payroll growth, unemployment rate, wages and revisions could therefore trigger meaningful moves in Treasury yields, the dollar, equities and Bitcoin. A strong report would reinforce the case for tighter policy, while a weak report could reduce hike expectations. My view is that wage growth and prior-month revisions may matter as much as the headline payroll number. Traders should also expect the initial market reaction to reverse if the details contradict the headline.

AI Morning Event Summary: Dell up, Credo down, rates still set the AI hardware bar ADP private payrolls printed 38K for August versus a 47K Street bar at 7:15am CT, but the official morning calendar is lighter: Census July factory orders and BLS July metro employment and unemployment both hit at 9:00am CT. The real macro pressure is still rates and oil. WSJ and MarketWatch had the $2Y near 4.41%, the $10Y near 4.81%, and Brent near $95 after the latest U.S.-Iran escalation. $SPY $762, +0.1% pre-market; $QQQ $707, flat; $SOXX $499, -0.4%. The AI tape is trading quality and conversion again after Dell's beat and Credo's margin reset split the overnight hardware tape. Active names $DELL $462, +9% pre-market. Dell reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $47.0B, non-GAAP EPS of $7.04, AI server revenue of $16.4B, and AI backlog of $95.0B. The stock is trading on backlog conversion, not backlog theory, and that raises the bar for the rest of the server stack. $CRDO $186, -10% pre-market. Credo reported fiscal Q1 revenue of $479M and guided fiscal Q2 revenue to $525M-$535M, but non-GAAP gross margin fell to 64.5% from 68.3% last quarter. Revenue still cleared the guide range; margin quality did not clear the tape bar. $HPE $53, +4% pre-market. The sympathy bid is tied to Dell's backlog print and tonight's earnings call at 3:30pm CT. HPE's last reported quarter had $7.7B of Cloud and AI revenue and $2.7B of Networking revenue, so the stock needs system conversion and margin support, not only another AI demand headline. $AVGO $371, +0.3% pre-market. Broadcom reports after the close and hosts its call at 4:00pm CT. The stock is still trading off the June AI semiconductor guide of $16.0B for fiscal Q3. A clean AI beat without a higher out-year slope likely keeps the stock in a good-print, muted-tape lane. $NVDA $218, +0.4% pre-market. The stock is holding green while $SOXX is red. Direct GPU demand still screens cleaner than the second-order margin and cadence debates hitting $CRDO and $MRVL. $SNDK $1,538, +0.1% pre-market. Storage is outperforming $SOXX again after yesterday's selloff. If that spread holds after 9:00am CT, the memory tape is still favoring NAND and enterprise SSD over the broader semi basket. Wall St one-liners $NVDA: Goldman Sachs raised PT to $300 from $285 -> out-year growth commentary still sits above a Street bar in the mid-40s, so the stock can hold relatively better even when the group derates. $MRVL: UBS reiterated Buy and cut PT to $300 from $340 -> the tape still wants quarter-by-quarter custom cadence and margin proof, not only higher FY27 revenue. $DELL: Evercore kept the AI backlog frame above $51B into the print -> Dell's $95.0B quarter-end backlog and $16.4B AI server revenue say conversion is now the server-OEM debate, not demand existence. 3 key tech headlines Dell reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $47.0B, AI server revenue of $16.4B, and AI backlog of $95.0B on Tuesday, September 1, 2026 -> the HPE, SMCI, storage, and networking read-through is booked system revenue, not only AI order talk. Anthropic introduced Claude Fable 5.1 and Claude Mythos 5.1 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, with a 75% lower cache-read price -> frontier-model pricing pressure and enterprise adoption economics remain active for cloud AI and software names. NVIDIA and MediaTek expanded their AI edge-to-cloud partnership on Monday, August 31, 2026 -> edge inference and semi-custom attach remain live support lines for $NVDA and the broader ASIC lane. What to watch - 9:00am CT Census July factory orders and BLS July metro employment and unemployment. - Friday, September 4, 2026 payrolls remain the week's real macro gate for rates, duration, and QQQ / SOXX multiples. - The $2Y / $10Y path and whether Brent stays near $95 after the ADP miss. - Whether Dell strength broadens into $HPE, $SMCI, and networking, or stays a single-name backlog conversion story. - $AVGO and $HPE after the close for AI revenue slope, networking demand, margins, and guide quality. - Whether $SNDK keeps relative strength versus $SOXX, $MU, and $WDC while $CRDO pressures the higher-beta networking lane.

🚨 The US data is cooling… so why is Bitcoin getting MORE nervous about rate hikes? This is where the market gets tricky. August ISM Manufacturing came in at 54.6 — below expectations, but still above 50, meaning the sector is expanding. JOLTS job openings fell to around 7.27M, while construction spending also came in weak. Normally, weaker economic data = more hopes for Fed easing = good news for BTC. #DailyOrbit

#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds The latest US data feels mixed enough to make Friday’s payroll report even more important 👀 August ISM manufacturing PMI slipped from 55.6 to 54.6. That still signals expansion, just at a slower pace. July JOLTS openings came in at 7.27M—below expectations, but slightly above June’s revised figure. To me, this doesn’t look like a labor market collapsing. It looks more like demand is cooling gradually while businesses remain cautious about hiring 📊 Yet markets are still pricing roughly a 66% chance of a 25bp September hike. That means August payrolls may need to do more than simply beat or miss expectations—the details on wages, unemployment and prior revisions could matter just as much. I’m curious whether the report gives the Fed a clearer direction, or leaves us with the same uncomfortable mix: slower growth, resilient labor demand and inflation still above target.

Data is cooling down, so why is the market more afraid of rate hikes? #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 After several US data releases last night, the market was somewhat conflicted. The August ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 54.6, below expectations but still above 50; JOLTS job openings dropped to about 7.27 million, also missing market expectations, and construction spending was similarly weak. #NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes #BroadcomDellAIResults