#FOMCRateCallThisWeek

Fed hike odds are near 87%. Sept 16 at 2PM is the moment. If delivered, it would be the first hike under Warsh and the Fed's first since 2023. After holding at 3.50%-3.75% in July with a 9-3 vote, the FOMC heads into this week almost fully priced for a 25bps hike. August CPI rose 0.4% MoM, core CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.3%, and PPI rose 5.4% YoY. Energy remains part of the pressure. Three members already dissented in favor of a hike last time. The political backdrop is loud: · Trump has renewed calls for lower rates · Hassett said the White House would accept the Fed's decision, while arguing inflation is decelerating · Several Wall Street desks shifted toward a September hike call But the bigger question is communication. Warsh has stripped back forward guidance since taking the chair, and his decision not to submit his own dot in June was an unusual break from recent Fed practice. September brings a fresh dot plot, but the statement may again leave fewer explicit hints. Markets may have to decode the press conference in real time. One contrarian read: Brookings' Robin Brooks argues a hike here may be less about classic tightening and more about anchoring the 10-year yield and restoring credibility. If that is right, the crypto impact may depend more on yields and the dollar than on the headline rate move. BTC trades around $77K, below the $80K area it failed to hold in recent attempts. US spot BTC ETFs have seen four straight sessions of outflows, even though September remains net positive so far. The rate decision matters. The dot plot and what Warsh says after may matter more. Which matters more for BTC this week: the rate decision, the dot plot, or Warsh's press conference? #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

#FOMCRateCallThisWeek The Fed’s September decision lands on September 16, and a 25bp hike now looks like the market’s base case 🏛️ August PPI rose 5.4% YoY and CPI increased 0.4% MoM, while energy prices and long-term yields remain elevated. That explains why Goldman Sachs and others shifted their calls from a hold to a hike. What caught my attention is the political pressure building at the same time. Trump argued that US rates should be the world’s lowest, while White House adviser Hassett said he sees no case for tightening. The Fed is therefore making this decision with both inflation risk and its independence under scrutiny 👀 To me, the bigger question goes beyond “hike or hold.” If the Fed raises rates, markets will want to know whether this is a one-off response or the start of further tightening. If it holds, it will need to explain why the latest inflation data weren’t enough.

🚨 ETH is pumping, but don’t mistake a short squeeze for a real reversal. Brothers, the rebound looks strong on the chart, but the bigger picture is still full of warning signs. PPI and CPI came in hotter than expected, rate-hike expectations have risen, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%. Meanwhile, $BTC is struggling to build momentum. Spot ETF outflows have reached around $450 million over three days, and the $76,000 support zone is under pressure. #DailyOrbit

A September rate hike now seems almost unavoidable . How will the prices of $BTC $ETH , and $OKB move in the future? Does a rate hike necessarily lead to a price drop? I don't think so. Historically, it mainly depends on whether the hike meets expectations. The current price has already priced in the rate hike expectation. If the Fed raises rates by more than 25 basis points this month, prices will fall sharply. Otherwise, it should be fine.#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期

$BTC — STILL IN THE TRENCHES $BTC ~$77,069 (-0.3%). Dipped below $77K, trying to stabilize. News: BTC ETFs bled $462.7M last week — first weekly net outflow in 4 weeks. $232M liquidated in 24h (BTC longs $22.28M, shorts $3.22M). Core CPI hot at 0.3% MoM, rate-hike odds hit 85%. Held $77K. Support $76,500 / resistance $78,500. BTC reclaims $78K or another dip first? #SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow

🚨 IF THIS HAPPENS, MONDAY WILL BE A BLOODBATH The setup going into September 14 is fragile, and almost nobody is watching the right thing! Everyone's staring at the S&P. I'm watching the bond market. The 10Y yield is pushing on 5%. That's the level that matters. Break it, and the pressure feeds straight into Nasdaq futures and every stretched asset behind them. Because the Fed meets September 15-16, and markets are already pricing a hike. The 25 bps itself isn't the risk. The real risk is markets starting to price a whole new tightening cycle! And then oil. Crude above $100, right when inflation was supposed to cool. Here's the chain nobody's positioned for: → Oil ↑ → Inflation expectations ↑ → Yields ↑ → Fed gets more hawkish → Stocks dump And Japan adds another crack. If JGB yields keep climbing while U.S. yields hold, the global carry trade starts unwinding. Less liquidity for risk assets right when valuations are already at 100-year extremes That's where it accelerates fast: → JGB yields ↑ → US 10Y ↑ → USD ↑ → Nasdaq futures ↓ CPI came in close to expectations, sure. But strong PPI, oil at $100, and a sticky inflation backdrop leave the Fed zero room to sound soft. Warsh won't hand the market a dovish gift. Everyone's going to watch the S&P. I'll be watching bonds. Because if the 10Y breaks higher while futures weaken overnight, September 14 opens with a very different tone. This is how a bond market move turns into a stock market selloff. Watch the U.S. open closely. I'll post the move before it hits the headlines!

Second Squeeze: Macro Trigger Macro data lit the fuse: hotter PPI, higher rate-hike odds, rising yields, and a stronger dollar pressured risk assets. But $ZEC fell 13%+, far more than BTC or ETH. Macro triggered it. Leverage amplified it. $ZEC $BTC $ETH #SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow #OracleAICloudUp121%

The crypto market is trading in range despite hot CPI, hot PPI, and 87% odds of a rate hike. We need to hold these support levels for bullish momentum to continue. Bitcoin: $75,500 ETH: $2,350 Total market cap: $2.5 trillion Altcoin market: $188 billion $BTC $ETH

U.S. diesel prices just broke above $6/gal for the first time, adding fresh pressure to inflation. Supply constraints and Middle East tensions are keeping refined-fuel prices elevated, which could strengthen rate-hike expectations and push Treasury yields higher. That’s a headwind for risk assets like stocks and BTC, while supporting the dollar and energy. For now, the key driver remains Fed policy expectations—not diesel alone.#SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow #OracleAICloudUp121%

CPI matched forecasts, pushing the Fed rate hike probability for Sep 17 to nearly 90%. Gold, BTC, and stocks swept three moves: a sharp drop, a 5-minute wick to liquidate Shorts, and a gradual bleed back to baseline. This was a liquidity sweep, not a new directional catalyst. $BTC +0.2% Swept both sides, giving back all momentum. $ETH -0.1% Moving sideways, mirroring BTC liquidity sweeps. Lack of buying pressure. Prioritize hedging positions. #USCPIReignitesHikeOdds #BTCSpotETFOutflows