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突发：俄罗斯抢在美国前面了。🇷🇺
普京正式签署俄罗斯首个全面加密货币监管法。
几个重点：
• 普通投资者可通过持牌机构购买加密货币（每年最高约3700美元）
• 合格投资者不限额度
• 交易所需持牌、满足资本要求并接受监管
• 俄罗斯国内仍禁止加密货币支付，但允许用于跨境结算
• 主要条款将于 2026 年 9 月 1 日 生效。
我的看法：
这不是俄罗斯开始拥抱 Crypto，而是开始承认 Crypto 是一种资产，而不是一种货币。
真正值得关注的是最后一点——允许跨境结算。
在美元结算越来越受地缘政治影响的背景下，加密货币正逐渐成为国际贸易的另一种结算工具，而不仅仅是散户炒作的标的。
更有意思的是，俄罗斯已经完成立法，美国的 CLARITY Act 却仍卡在参议院。
如果越来越多国家建立合规框架，Crypto 的估值逻辑也会慢慢从「投机资产」转向「全球金融基础设施」。
我的判断：这属于长期利好。短期影响有限，但未来几年，真正受益的可能不是山寨币，而是 $BTC。#俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确 BTC-Bitcoin Real-Time Analysis (Morning of August 7)
Current price: approximately $64,400 | 24-hour decline: -0.6% | Range: 63,800-65,000
Core data
• Latest price: Narrow fluctuations between $64,300 and $64,500
• 24H high: $65,000 (again pulled back after resistance), 24H low: $63,842
• 24H amplitude: approximately 1.8%
• Trading volume: about $21 billion in 24 hours, slightly shrinking compared to previous days
• Key event: At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, U.S. July nonfarm payroll data will be released
Market analysis
BTC failed to break through the $65,000 mark four times in a row, and has now slightly pulled back to around $64,400. Technically, $65,000 has formed strong short-term resistance, and after multiple failed attempts, bullish momentum has weakened; Support is provided at $64,000 and $63,500 below. RSI has fallen back to around 48, and the MACD is flattening below the zero axis, showing an overall weak oscillation pattern.
Market attention is fully focused on tonight's nonfarm payroll data; prior to this, both bulls and bears were cautious, and shrinking trading volume suggests insufficient breakout momentum. If nonfarm payrolls are strong, it may reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep high interest rates longer, putting pressure on risk assets; If the data is weak, it could boost expectations for rate cuts and push BTC to an upward breakout.
Operational strategy
Data pre-trading strategy: light position within a range
• If it rebounds to $64,800-$65,000 and encounters resistance, short short selling with a stop loss of $65,400, targeting $64,000/$63,600
• If it stabilizes at $63,600-63,800, consider a light long position, stop loss at $63,200, targeting $64,500/$64,800
Breakout strategies after the data
• If the non-farm payroll surges through $65,500 and holds steady, you can go long with a stop loss at $64,800, targeting $67,000/$68,500
• If it falls below $63,200, follow short, stop loss at $63,800, targeting $62,000/$61,000
Current advice: Mainly wait and see before the non-farm payroll data release; heavy positions and betting on the direction are not recommended. Currently, $64,400 is in the middle of the range, with a poor profit-loss ratio. Immediate volatility may occur immediately after data release; it is recommended to place orders or wait for clear trends before entering. Strictly set stop-loss lines; data is prone to insertion and avoid heavy positions.
$BTC $UB continued to rise today, but at present, there seems to be a slowing trend. At this point, we need to decide whether to short the position. Because according to the previous rise and fall pattern of $UB, its decline is very similar to a cliff-like situation, somewhat like a fund scheme. Given the current situation, I think we're actually on the edge of a cliff, so we especially need to look at the data to make some judgments. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its situation is somewhat similar to $BICO. From early this morning until now, its open interest has been gradually declining, and the contract long-short ratio has been steadily rising. Let's take this period separately. It can be seen that the long-short ratio is indeed rising, accompanied by a decrease in open interest. But the problem is, the price of $UB keeps rising. Regarding this situation, my inference is that the bears are constantly being forced to take positions. Currently, this state should have peaked, and logically, it shouldn't have continued to rise. I have already shorted $UB, but now I'm stuck. —————————————————— So melancholic. He shorted several coins, all of which got stuck. If it weren't for the gradual breakeven from previous long positions, I would have lost a lot of money again. Right now, we're stuck on short positions, while previous long positions are gradually uneven, and in the end, overall capital is stuck in a stagnant state. Actually, I don't dislike this state,$LLY Lilly Financial Report: 'All Three Trump Cards Unleashed, This Rare Week's Good News Turns into a Rise'
This week, I wrote about PLTR, AMD, SanDisk, Datadog, all following the same script—numbers exceed the target, guidance is insufficient, and stock prices still fall. Lilly is a rare exception this week.
Revenue was $22.97 billion, up 48% year-over-year, beating market expectations of $20.93 billion; Non-GAAP EPS was $8.38, up 33% year-over-year; Gross margin was 86.3%, a record high. Full-year revenue guidance was raised for the entire range to $85 to $87 billion, with non-GAAP EPS guidance raised simultaneously, and the median increase of about $2.78.
The weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro are the main engines. The newly launched oral weight loss drug Foundayo recorded revenue of $98 million for the first time this quarter. To meet the supply shortage, the company increased its $4.5 billion expansion to expand its Indiana plant.
The stock price rose as much as 6% in pre-market trading, but closed in the 4-5% range for the day.
What's the difference? This week, the other stocks had already surged significantly before their earnings reports, and the optimism was eaten away. Even if you exceed the target, you can't buy back the gains. Lilly didn't oversell before the earnings report, so the overpriced earnings have room to be directly reflected in the stock price. Even with the same overrated earnings, the difference isn't how well they performed this quarter—it's the starting point before entering the market.
After the earnings report, it held above the 1,150 support level, making this rally standing; Holding above and above the 1,250 range (near the 52-week high) indicates the market is willing to offer a higher valuation for GLP-1 as a long-term growth story; Falling below 1,100 indicates concerns about the weight loss drug competition landscape (Novo Nordisk's 38.8% market share remains tightly contested).
This week, almost every stock's overpriced earnings report has been criticized by the market, but Lilly is the exception of good news that actually turns into a rise—do you think this means Lilly's story hasn't been fully priced in by the market, or is it just luck that it didn't get overpriced before the earnings report?
$LLY #美股 #財報季 #GLP1CME显示，9月加息25个基点的概率已经来到56.5%。
我认为最难受的从来不是加息本身，而是预期突然转向。
一旦市场开始重新定价更高的利率，美元、债券收益率和风险资产估值都会跟着重新调整。BTC、ETH自然也很难完全不受影响。
不过56.5%也只是市场当前押注，不代表9月一定加息。
接下来真正重要的还是通胀和就业数据。
如果数据继续偏热，加息预期可能进一步强化；反过来，只要数据稍微降温，这个56.5%也可能几天之内重新掉下去。 $SNDK SanDisk Financial Report: "Data Center Revenue Surges 437%, Stock Price Still Crashes Nearly 13%"
anDisk's quarterly financial report nearly exceeded the target across all sectors.
Revenue was $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Adjusted EPS was $39.25, nearly 14% above target; Data center revenue grew 437% year-on-year. Gross margin was 84.6%, and Board also increased its treasury share buyback by $14 billion, bringing its cumulative available capacity to $15.5 billion.
The stock price first fell 5.4% during trading and then fell further afterward, briefly dropping below $1,250.
The issue lies in the guidance—the median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, slightly below market expectations of $10.82 billion; the gross margin guidance is 83 to 85%, slightly revised down from this quarter's 84.6%. The market immediately interpreted this as a wave of memory price hikes driven by AI, possibly nearing the peak.
This is the third time this week that the same script has played out: the earnings numbers have crushed expectations, yet the stock price has plunged heavily with the phrase "guidance is more conservative than expected." The real issue isn't this quarter, but whether this price hike cycle is a structural shift or a short-term supply-demand mismatch.
The company itself spent real money to buy back treasury shares, and management clearly did not feel the stock price was undervalued, which stands in stark contrast to the market's pessimistic response.
Holding above the 1,200 integer level is a normal correction; Returning to the closing price of 1,350 before the earnings report indicates the market is willing to continue valuing with a structural shift logic; Sustained breaks below 1,200 indicate the market is seriously weighing the risk of a price increase cycle peaking.
With financial reports exceeding expectations across the board and the company even increasing its confidence, will you take profits following market sentiment, or will you bet on guidance against the trend and just conservative estimates?
$SNDK #美股 #記憶體 #財報季 【Crypto Circle Script】
I am Script Bro. After the U.S. stock market opened tonight, the market showed a noticeable change. The previously strongest AI storage sector began to see capital cashing out, with SK Hynix plunging more than 10% intraday, and storage sectors like SanDisk SNDK and Western Digital also under pressure. The decline in Hynix and SanDisk this time is essentially not because AI demand disappeared, but because market expectations were too high.
Yesterday, after SanDisk's earnings report was released, although the performance was good and revenue growth was significant, the stock price still fell sharply because market expectations were already maxed out, and capital chose to take profits.
Script Bro warned everyone about this risk during the live stream the night before last, taking profits on three SanDisk positions at that time. In today's afternoon live stream, I took profits on one BTC position and two SanDisk positions.
Recently, AI hardware, chips, and storage have been the main focus of market capital. The rise in these sectors indicates the market's willingness to take risks, and capital is more likely to flow into high-volatility assets like BTC and ETH. But if the core AI sectors start to adjust, it means capital is beginning to reassess overvalued assets, and short-term risk appetite will decline, which can also affect BTC.
Currently, BTC is still influenced by risk sentiment from the U.S. stock market. If the AI sector continues to adjust, short-term capital may become cautious, and the resistance around the 65000-66000 range for BTC will be more obvious; but if U.S. tech stocks stabilize and market risk appetite recovers, BTC still has a chance to break upward.
Script Bro believes that SanDisk's drop last night and Hynix's drop today look more like high-level capital rebalancing rather than the AI rally ending completely.
What do you think about this AI storage adjustment—is it a short-term shakeout or the start of a cooling market? Let's discuss in the comments. $SNDK $SPCX $SKHYNIX After such a long time, the $RIVER dealers have started working!
This time, I bought it together!
1️⃣ No new catalysts: No CEX IPOs or news within 14 days, pure stock market behavior.
2️⃣ 89% of chips are in the Top 10, with 62.9% in the treasury: essentially a market where "one person sets prices."
3️⃣ Trading volume: net buying is minimal, overbought, volume is on CEX
4️⃣ 24-hour trading volume of $1.1-1.2M, but net buying was only about $38K (buy $613K / sell $575K)—the +29% push is actually due to extremely low liquidity leverage, not capital inflow. Ultimately, it may be to push prices higher and wait for distribution, but the selling phase hasn't started yet. Moreover, River market makers are very capable, combining contract fee yields to keep pushing the market. Currently, Binance's funding rate is positive, and once it reaches a certain level, the rate turns negative will be the most aggressive moment.#黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？
I am Script Brother, and today I will continue to review the market with everyone. Recently, gold has once again become the focus of the market. Spot gold briefly broke through the $4200 mark, and silver also strengthened in tandem. The core logic behind this is the market's re-pricing of the Federal Reserve's future policy path.
The US July ADP employment data was significantly below expectations, showing signs of cooling in the job market, and market expectations for future rate cuts have heated up again. After the US dollar and Treasury yields fell, funds began to flow back into safe-haven assets like gold.
But many people have a question: why has gold strengthened while BTC has not simultaneously broken through?
Script Brother thinks there is a very important difference here.
Gold currently benefits more from traditional capital's demand for safe havens, while BTC, although long called "digital gold," has changed its market attributes. With ETFs and institutional funds entering, BTC's short-term trend depends not only on safe-haven logic but also on liquidity, risk appetite, and whether funds are willing to enter high-volatility assets.
Currently, BTC's price is still fluctuating in the $64,000-$65,000 range, reaching a high near $65,026 today before pulling back. The current price is around $64,600.
From a technical perspective, after BTC rebounded from around $62,200, it has regained the 4-hour level above MA5, MA13, MA55, and EMA144/169, so the overall trend has not been broken for now.
However, resistance near $65,000 remains obvious.
During today's live broadcast, Script Brother also placed a short order near $64,830, and the logic is actually very simple.
First, this position is close to a previous resistance area. After BTC rebounded from a low, it rose continuously, testing $65,000 multiple times without an effective breakthrough, indicating selling pressure above. 📊 MARKET NEWS 07-08
Bitcoin has been dormant all week around $64,000, but there is one coin that is still quietly +18% — are you holding it?
The market is at its most unpleasant: $BTC $ETH is sideways, $SOL $SUI is shaking slightly, $XRP lost nearly 5% in 7 days. Meanwhile, $ADA suddenly broke through, new memes like $CASHCAT, $STONKBROKER climbed the top trending, $HFT +58%, $BICO +34%, $PLUME +17% — cash flow is still flowing, but only in a few places. And $ONDO is retreating by 13.8%/week, giving RWA holders a headache.
One side says: this is the new altseason — money selectively in each industry, not the whole floor. The other side warns: when the Fed may raise interest rates in September, liquidity runs out, the coins that have just flown will fall the fastest.
In my opinion, don't ask "has altseason arrived" — ask "which wave is flowing". Altseason doesn't go away, it's broken down into short waves, and whoever chases the season will always be late.
Which coin are you holding — is it stationary or has it flown?
───
📉 PRIVATE MACRO POST (FED)
The Fed has just sparked the biggest debate this summer: keeping interest rates at 3.50-3.75% but new Chairman Kevin Warsh hinted that it could be further increased, 3 members voted to raise it immediately, futures valued 72% of the possibility of tightening in September.
With crypto, this means that the USD strengthens, liquidity is sucked out of risky assets — $BTC $ETH $SOL $SUI $XRP are under pressure ahead of the meeting. In contrast, safe-haven money is flowing into tokenized gold ($XAUT +3.3% per week) and stablecoins.
But there's a paradox: the news of a rate hike has been priced in as much as 72%—most of the shock may have been in the price. History shows that when expectations are too consensus, the market often "sells first, buys after the decision." If the Fed stays the same in September, $BTC could bounce back unexpectedly quickly.
In your opinion, is this correction an opportunity to buy or is it catching a knife falling?When it comes to cycles, I've never seen anyone stronger than me......
Hey! 😄
"Is your dad a math professor?"
Friends, I don't need to say more. The chart is right there.
Since 2015, Bitcoin has risen for 35 months, peaking in the 35th month.
Then it fell for 12 months, bottoming out in the 12th month.
Using the same logic:
After peaking in October 2025, the twelfth month corresponds to October 2026.
And this also supports the view I analyzed in my last sharing—that the U.S. midterm elections will enter a bottom or near the bottom.
I think I already understand it 😄
When it comes to cycles, you have to ask us!
Teacher, what do you think?
Me?
As I have long said, I expect October 2026 to reach the 160,000–180,000–180,000 range 🙂Coldcard 固件漏洞事件后，比特币活跃地址数升至每日 98 万个，为 2024 年 12 月以来最高。该链上活动主要由恐慌驱动，持有者迁移助记词并将资金转移至其他托管方案，反映的是运营安全应对。$SNDK 先给结论：当前不是理想的追多位置。 数据显示价格约1,150–1,276附近追多盈亏比不划算**。
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一、当前市场背景
闪迪8月5日盘后发布Q4财报：营收89.7亿美元，同比暴增372%，EPS 39.25美元大超预期，还批了140亿美元回购。但下季度营收指引103-108亿美元（中值105.5亿），低于分析师预期的111.6亿——市场选择"卖事实"，盘后直接砸了8%，正股从1350跌到1220-1240。8月6日正股收跌6.81%报1258.58。
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二、值得关注的做多参考区域
1. 核心支撑区：1,240
这是当前最值得关注的多头观察区：
· 1,240：大型对角支撑区域，已有巨鲸在此重仓——某鲸鱼在20分钟内买入12,527份SNDK，成交额1,555万美元，加权均价$1,241.9
· $1,200：心理关口
· 1,180：下一档支撑
2. $1,240附近已有聪明钱进场
财报后未平仓合约从1.35亿暴增到1.90亿美元（+40.6%），资金没跑反而疯狂加仓。有巨鲸地址在1,201**保留了一笔500万美元新增买单。
3. $1,276附近的问题
数据的价格1,270–$1,300阻力区**中间：
· 上方1,300是前期成交密集区
· 再往上$1,350是前收盘价
· 当前位置追多，上方空间有限，下方若跌回$1,220则亏损较大
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三、技术信号参考
从Gate平台7月27日的1小时分析（当时价格$1,486）：RSI高达79，严重超买；资金费率+0.087%为正，多头需付费，说明看涨情绪浓厚但也增加了"费率杀多"风险。虽然后来跌了，但正费率+超买的组合依然值得警惕。
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四、如果要做多，怎么管理风险？
策略类型 参考入场区 止损参考 目标参考
激进试多 1,220企稳 $1,180下方 1,320
稳健分批 1,220分批 $1,100下方 1,450
几个提醒：
· 永续合约有资金费率，持仓过夜可能产生费用
· 闪迪是美股，正股交易时段外（盘前盘后、周末）流动性可能变差，滑点较大
· 8月13日有Investor Day，可能是下一个催化剂
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总结： 想布局多单，等价格回到1,240附近再观察企稳信号，比在$1,276追高要安全得多。交易始终记得设置止损。
⚠️ 以上分析基于公开市场数据和个人观察，不构成投资建议，盈亏自负。#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ @OKX中文 @OKX成长学院 @OKX星球 @天才交易员绿毛 @天才少女秋秋 🚨📉 THỊ TRƯỜNG PHÂN TÁCH: NVIDIA ĐƯỢC THƯỞNG, SPACEX BỊ TRỪNG PHẠT & CỤC DỰ TRỮ LIÊN BANG ĐE DỌA TĂNG LÃI SUẤT! ⚠️💥
Thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ đóng cửa với sự phân kỳ mạnh mẽ hôm nay. Chỉ số Dow Jones đạt kỷ lục ngày thứ 5 liên tiếp nhờ $NVDA (+3,4%), được thúc đẩy bởi xác nhận của Elon Musk rằng SpaceX sẽ độc quyền sử dụng chip Nvidia. Tuy nhiên, thị trường đã "giết chết" $SPCX (-13,6%) vì đã đốt 18,4 tỷ USD vốn đầu tư vào AI. Tệ hơn nữa đối với ngành công nghệ, Kashkari (Cục Dự trữ Liên bang) đã khiến thị trường hoảng sợ khi gợi ý đã đến lúc tăng lãi suất một lần nữa, xóa sạch lợi nhuận của Nasdaq và làm sụt giảm các đối thủ cạnh tranh như $AMD (-7%).
Bình luận chiến lược:
Bài học hôm nay vô cùng quý giá: trong cơn sốt vàng AI, Phố Wall chỉ mua người bán xẻng (NVDA), chứ không phải người khai thác (SPCX). Hơn nữa, bóng ma của Cục Dự trữ Liên bang đã trở lại. Khi tính thanh khoản bị đe dọa bởi lãi suất cao hơn, các nhà đầu tư sẽ không khoan nhượng với bảng cân đối kế toán có chi tiêu không cân xứng.
Lời kêu gọi hành động (CTA): Với sự phân hóa lớn này, bạn có đang mua cổ phiếu NVDA (công ty chuyên bán xẻng) ở mức giá cao kỷ lục, hay bạn đang tìm kiếm những mức giá chiết khấu mạnh mẽ cho các công ty đang xây dựng tương lai như $SPCX ?
Hãy chia sẻ luận điểm của bạn trong phần bình luận! 👇⚔️
#Gold4200BTCStalls #GoogleAIReshuffle #MSTRSells1638BTC $SNDK SNDK's earnings report, it opened high but then closed low, dropping from 1426 all the way to 1167, now at 1268—a 12% drop overnight. Those who were cheering at 1483 last night were completely stunned today—with such a good earnings report, why did it drop so much?
Are you trapped?
Last night, SanDisk's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations across the board—revenue of $9.1 billion (expected $8.4-8.9 billion), gross margin of 83% (expected 79-81%), NAND supply shortages continuing into 2027, and a $15 billion buyback plan announced. Wall Street collectively raised its target price: Susquehanna raised its price from $3,250 to $3,500, Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy, and Evercore reiterated $3,100. But the stock price just fell—all the good news was exhausted, and short-term profit-taking positions were collectively realized. From 993 to 1,483, it rebounded 49% in two weeks, with profit-taking at the bottom selling off on earnings reports. Combined with the overall market sentiment and BTC still hovering at 64,000, it's not easy for SNDK to go on its own. This kind of movement is a typical sell the news, not a fundamental reversal.
What should be seen from a technical perspective?
The first resistance above is 1300-1324; a reclaim of 1300 would be considered stabilization; Below 1167 is the current low; if it falls below 1130-1150, look for 1130-1150. RSI 6 at 42.26, falling from the overbought 79 zone to slightly neutral weak—short-term correction is nearing its end. After the daily earnings report, volume dropped, requiring time to digest, but the direction remains upward.
Operational Advice:
For those with positions: defend below 1160, wait for a rebound between 1300-1320, then consider reducing positions. Don't cut losses during panic.
For those who haven't bought in: you can buy on a pullback to 1180-1200, stop loss at 1150, target 1300-1320. Or wait for volume to reach 1300 before entering on the right.
Core conclusion: Explosive earnings but falling stock price—this is short-term capital action, not fundamentals. The direction remains upward, Wall Street target price 3000+. A pullback is an opportunity, but don't go all-in and build positions in batches.
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added How much longer will this rally last?
My 50 $ETH short positions are really too much to hold.
Average opening price is 1783.
Currently, the price is still around 1900.
The unrealized loss is already close to 6,000 USD.
The hardest part this time wasn't the constant price increase, but that every time it seemed about to go down, it was suddenly pulled back.
—
Looking at the one-hour chart, ETH did not immediately drop after surging to 1921.
Although it has fallen back below the short-term moving average, the price is still holding above the MA60 and MA120.
$BTC indicates that the pace of the rise has slowed.
But the trend has not truly reversed.
The firm upward signal I see now is that within an hour, the physical price will break above 1921, pullback near 1908 and hold, and then continue to break through 1936.
These three conditions indicate that 1900 is not the top, but rather a bullish turnover.
The rise may continue toward 1950 or even higher.
A firm downward signal is also simple.
It first broke below 1890.
It rebounded to around 1905 and couldn't recover.
He then lost the city in 1877.
Only by breaking out of this structure can my short positions truly find a turning point.
Just inserting a lower shadow—I can hardly believe it.
—
The biggest problem right now is actually not direction.
It's because my position size is already very low.
Forced liquidation price 1973.61.
It is now only about $72, which is less than 4%.
For every $10 increase of 50 ETH, the unrealized loss increases by about 500U.
Pushing back to 1936 already means a lot of pressure.
Near 1950, the account will be more passive.
So if prices keep rising, I won't be reckless with margin deposits.
1921 effectively broke out and reduced positions first.
If 1936 can still hold firm, then keep decreasing.
If you misjudge the direction, you can redo it.
If I really get hit by a needle and get forced into a forced liquidation, no matter how much it falls afterward, it won't affect me anymore.
Tonight at 20:30 Taipei time, there will be U.S. nonfarm payroll data, and it's easy for rapid insertion and false breakouts to occur before and after the data release. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that the July employment report will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on August 7.
Currently, the average ETH funding rate across the network is still close to neutral, with no extreme long crowding, so we can't just judge "too many bulls" to make a sudden crash.
I'm still carrying this order.
But being firmly bearish doesn't mean betting on your account.
Going up further means reducing your position.
Survive first, then wait for a real correction.
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth? Five attempts at 65,000 on the big bough, I'm holding a short position waiting for tonight's non-farm payroll
$ETH long positions were closed yesterday. 1,857 entered, 1,906 exited, +142 U, 255% return.
On paper, I am a long, but now I am short $BTC, entering the market at 64,307.
MACD death cross, DIFF crossing below DEA, green bars enlarged. Previous low at 64,144.
Today, I touched 65,000 three times in one day, totaling five times. Every time, it would touch and fall off.
Why can't they go up, nor can they fall?
Because short positions are accumulating at 65,000. Touching up, dropping, touching again, falling again—the market keeps feeding the bears candy.
When everyone thinks "it can't go up," every time it hits 65,000, they blindly short it. At that point, the Bitcoin market will break through directly, pulling a single line above 66,000 and blowing up all the short positions.
If you can't get up, it's because they don't want you to leave. If it can't fall, it's because they want you to add to your position.
OI 31,720, no reduction in holdings, both longs and bears holding back.
ETH is holding steadily at 1,900; as long as ETH doesn't crash, it's unlikely for Bitcoin to drop sharply on its own. US stocks have also stabilized. If tonight's non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, rate cut expectations will follow, and 65,000 will be just a blank slate.
I hold short positions, but I'm also afraid. I'm afraid of being like those two ETH trades—looking in the right direction but exiting early, watching the candlestick continue, which feels worse than losing money.
But this time is different. The stop-loss was set at 65,000, which means the judgment was wrong. Admit it. If you don't get it, you'll get the results.
Either expose me, or I expose the short position. Tonight at 8:30, the data will be announced.非农数据对风险偏好的短线冲击，本质是通过美联储利率预期与美元指数联动传导。非农超预期会推升美债收益率与美元指数，增加零息高风险资产的机会成本；若数据爆冷引发衰退恐慌，资金优先避险至美债与美元现金，破坏美股及高风险资产的宽松逻辑。数据温和不及预期且薪资降温时，美债收益率回落将推升短线反弹流动性。盘面失效观察点在于公布后15分钟内10年期美债收益率与美元指数是否同步拉升突破阶段高点。
#特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？The US Nonfarm Payrolls Report (NFP) and Bitcoin are not simply "good data = BTC rising," but rather a chain of Fed rate expectations → risk appetite → USD/Treasuries. Here is the core conclusion:
Strong nonfarm payrolls (better than expected) → short-term negative for BTC; Weak nonfarm payrolls (below expectations and not in recession) → short-term positive for BTC.
1. Transmission Mechanism (Why Does It Affect BTC)
Nonfarm payrolls are the core employment indicator in the Fed's dual targets (employment + inflation), with the chain as follows:
1. Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations (high new additions, falling unemployment, high hourly wages)
→ Strong economic resilience and high stickiness of inflation
→ The market lowers expectations for rate cuts and even bets on rate hikes or maintaining high rates
→ US Treasury yields rose, and the US Dollar Index DXY rose
→ BTC, as a zero-interest, high-risk asset, the opportunity cost of holding is rising, capital outflows → short-term pressure
2. Nonfarm payrolls falling short of expectations (fewer new additions, rising unemployment rate, moderate hourly wages)
→ Economic cooling and easing inflationary pressures
→ The market is betting on the Fed cutting rates early or multiple times
→ US Treasury yields fell, the dollar fell, and liquidity expectations were loose
→ Capital flows back into risky assets, BTC receives buying → short-term rebound
3. Key Exception—Data "Shock" to Recession Level
If the nonfarm payrolls are extremely poor + unemployment soars, the market shifts from "betting on rate cuts" to "fearing recession," then BTC will be smashed along with US stocks, because funds first flow into US Treasuries and US dollars in cash, and the logic of rate cut benefits fails. The September 2025 scenario of "new additions far below expectations + unemployment hitting a stage high" is a mixed-signal leveraged market.
4. Hourly wage growth often outpaces the number of heads
Even if new jobs are slightly low, as long as average hourly wages are high year-on-year or month-on-month, it can be interpreted as a "wage-price spiral" risk, which is also a hawkish negative factor; Conversely, if new jobs are good but wages are cooling, some of the negative factors can be offset.
2. Historical Reaction Samples (Fluctuation Scale Reference)
• June 2024: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000 (expected 185,000), hourly wages also high→ Rate cut expectations sharply declined, BTC fell from 71,900 to 68,600, down over 4.5% in a single day, with about 150,000 people liquidated across the network.
• January 2025: $256,000 (expected $160,000) → USD surged, BTC posted a 5-minute drop of about 1.4% before a partial rebound.
• A weak nonfarm payroll in 2025 (57,000 new USD, far below expectations) → Rate cut expectations heat up, BTC rose about 4% that day, approaching 62,000.
• Statistical pattern: In the past 12 months, during the 7 post-24 hours after the non-farm payrolls, BTC had an average absolute fluctuation of about 4.2% (about 2.5% on weekdays). The probability of a false breakout 5–15 minutes after announcement was 60–70%, making leveraged trading most likely to be swept away at this time.
3. How to Analyze Practical Skills (Three Points to Avoid Pitfalls)
• Looking at the "expectation gap" is not absolute value: an increase of 200,000 is not strong; if the expectation is 220,000, it is weak; if the expectation is only 50,000 and the expectation is only 80,000, it is actually strong. Trading the market is about expectation spread.
• Watch two synchronized indicators: As soon as the data comes out, look at the DXY and 10-year US Treasury yields. These two directions are basically the opposite direction of BTC.
• Only focus on the short-term window: Nonfarm payrolls mainly drive volatility and sentiment in the minutes~hours after the announcement. Extending to weekly/monthly moving averages, BTC is still dominated by ETF fund flows, halving cycles, CPI, Fed rate decisions, and the overall liquidity environment. Don't use a single nonfarm payroll as a long-term basis.
Brief note: strong nonfarm payrolls → strong US dollar→ short BTC; Nonfarm payrolls → slow rate cuts→ BTC short-term long; Nonfarm payrolls collapse → recession panic→ BTC follows the decline; Expected → oscillation and other macro events. 在没有拿到底层最确凿的实盘毫秒级点位前，我们不上演“凭空套公式”的戏码。但撇开短线微小的几百刀波动，链上与宏观的底层逻辑早已在 $63,000 的天量换手处彻底固化。
周线收官在即，围绕宏观流动性大迁徙与天量筹码决战，今日深度观察与战术部署重写如下：
【今日盘面观察：周线收官决战！$63,000 天量筹码堰塞湖，美韩科技股与 BTC 的流动性接力】
一、 链上结构：$63,000 堆积 115 万枚 BTC，历史级筹码变盘前夜
115万枚BTC天量沉淀： 单价 $63,000 沉淀了超过 115 万枚 BTC，筹码集中度高达 13.5%。虽然 Coldcard 漏洞带来了一些链上划转，但这绝非主因。真正的原因是低波动率下机构资金与场内沉淀资金的剧烈交割。
能量积聚至临界点： 筹码密度不可能无限膨胀，这里已经形成了一个巨大的流动性黑洞。在经过了针对 63,500 美元的诱空杠杆清洗后，多空博弈已到临界点。一旦周线级别方向确立，触发的将是极具爆发力的单边单向行情。
二、 宏观与美联储利率：降息前夕的“流动性重定向”
美联储降息大势不可逆： 美联储终止加息的基调确定，全市场正在对宽松周期的到来进行重新定价。
美/韩科技股进入“去泡沫与消化期”： 美股 AI 链条与韩股半导体权重的高位震荡，本质上是高估值获利盘的结清与调仓。科技股走势从斜率极陡的主升转入“宽幅震荡与业绩验证期”，从科技股高位沉淀出来的溢出资金，正在寻找新一轮宽松周期的高弹性承接池。
三、 黄金 vs BTC：防守与高弹性资产的“水闸接力”
黄金锁定“信用避险”： 黄金的高位坚挺，吸收了最保守的去美元化避险资金，全力对冲法币购买力贬值风险。
BTC 成为高弹性流动性虹吸池： 在 $63,000 筑牢天量换手底座后，BTC 展现出兼具“数字黄金”与“高 Beta 风险资产”的双重属性，成为科技股溢出资金的最佳配置标的。
四、 周五周线收官实操战术指南
现货策略：定力死锁，右侧看涨
我们在 5.8 万–5.9 万确立的低位核心底仓利润垫极为牢固，现货坚决死锁不动。
依托 $63,000 一线的 115 万枚天量筹码底座，现货无视短线洗盘噪点，静待周线收官后的流动性爆发。
合约策略：以 63,500 为防守枢纽，锁定 65,000 右侧主升浪
防守布置： 既然此前已完成假破位拉回，战术防守枢纽重新锁定在 63,500 美元（极限止损可设在 $63,000 筹码密集区下沿 62,800 美元）。
交易跟进：
低吸试探： 周内若有针对 63,500 – 63,800 美元 区间的缩量回踩，依然是低倍顺势跟多的黄金位置。
右侧突破： 重点盯紧上方 65,000 美元（日线 EMA50 压制）。只要周线/日线带量强力收复 6.5 万，将直接清空上方的套牢压制，开启冲向 66,500 – 68,000 美元的主升浪。$BTC #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地
Iran and Oman have been leaking intensively this week, saying that the temporary navigation agreement is close to finalization.
According to details disclosed so far, two existing channels in the strait will be closed, replaced by a new temporary route passing through Iranian territorial waters. Ships entering the Persian Gulf would use the northern route controlled by Iran, while those departing would go via the southern route coordinated by Oman. Oman and Iran jointly enforce the plan, tentatively for two to four months.
But note, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ghaliba Badi made a crucial statement—this agreement has nothing to do with "immediate opening of the straits." Whether the strait is open depends on whether the U.S. can correct its "violations" and lift the blockade on Iranian ports.
On the other hand, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said "the outcome could be revealed within 48 hours," and Rubio also said the negotiations "made progress." The two sides have completely different accounts. Iran is saying, "This is just a temporary arrangement with Oman, the US shouldn't get involved," while the US says, "We are involved, and an agreement can be reached soon."
The market actually believed it outright. Oil prices fell for three consecutive days, with Brent dropping to around $79 and WTI around $75. But Iran has made it very clear: opening the straits does not depend on the agreement itself, but on the U.S. making concessions first.
The agreement is really about to be signed, but landing is another matter. This round of oil price declines feels more like trading an expectation that hasn't happened yet. $CL $BZ $SNDK SanDisk delivered historic results in Q4—revenue, adjusted gross margin, and adjusted EPS all exceeded expectations and set new quarterly records. However, its revenue guidance for FY2027 Q1 was revised down by about 5.5%: median $10.55 billion, below the consensus of $11.16 billion, and the stock price fell 8% after the earnings report. The market is pricing in for the downward guidance. SanDisk is advancing the NBM long-term contract model, trading low prices for long-term orders, but at the cost of a limited profit ceiling—this has caused countless people to be forced to liquidate 👿👿👿👿Fundamental Research Report $DYDX / dYdX (DeFi) $3.20
One-sentence conclusion: dYdX ($DYDX) overall score 51/100, rating. Narrative emphasizes practicality. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's look at the project first: dYdX (token $DYDX), DeFi track. Focusing on decentralized perpetual contracts. Benchmarked against SNX and GMX. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Looking at it together with peers (unified caliber, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market capitalization, dYdX $3.00B, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. For FDV, dYdX $4.20B, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, dYdX $2.00M, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, dYdX has not disclosed this, SNX has not disclosed, GMX has not disclosed it. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. In the end: solid fundamentals (score 51/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risk warning: Short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break off, usage collapses). Key points to look at next: protocol fee cycles, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, and GitHub version releases. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required.
After the research report is finished, take a closer look.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitThere has been new progress in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran and Oman have reached a phased agreement on new route arrangements. Although the final details have not yet been fully released, the market has already begun trading an expectation:
Global energy transportation has a chance to further return to normal.
My first reaction was not BTC.
It was crude oil.
If transportation risks in Hormuz continue to decline, oil prices are most likely to lose their previous safe-haven premium, which is likely to be bearish for crude oil in the short term. Conversely, gold may also weaken safe-haven buying as geological risks cool.
What about $BTC and $ETH?
I think the impact is actually quite positive.
As local risk eases, capital usually raises risk appetite again. As long as US stocks do not weaken significantly, BTC has a better chance of sustaining high volatility, while ETH, due to its greater liquidity flexibility, still has the potential to outperform BTC.
However, now is not the time to chase the highs.
What truly deserves attention is whether the agreement can ultimately be smoothly implemented and whether crude oil prices will continue to fall.
If oil prices fall, gold remains stable, and the Nasdaq continues to strengthen, the environment for risk assets will be much more comfortable.
I'd rather wait for a pullback to set up a position than rush in when emotions are at their hottest. #伊朗阿曼达成霍尔木兹航线协议 #原油 #bitcoin #Ethereum [Abstract] Using drawdowns, time, MVRV, NUPL, realized price, miner pressure, and ETF capital flows, the current cycles of 2018, 2022, and 2026 are compared. Key conclusion: Deep bearish characteristics have appeared, but the classic bottom signal is not yet complete. [Main Text] To get to the bottom line: Bitcoin in 2026 will already look like a bear market! Historical Data: In October 2025, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of about $126,000. By the end of June 2026, the lowest was close to $57,800, with a maximum drawdown of about 54%; As of August 7, the price was about $64,900, still about 48.6% below the peak. This decline is enough to create deep fear, but it is noticeably shallower than the roughly 83.6% in 2018 and about 77.5% in 2022. The timing is becoming more and more similar. In 2018 and 2022, the cycle rose from its peak to its final low for about 363 days and 376 days, respectively; The current cycle has been about 305 days since the peak in October 2025. In other words, the time window is approaching the historical bottom, but price and on-chain data are not yet fully in place. The most critical difference lies in on-chain costs. There are three common combinations at historical bear market bottoms: MVRV falling below 1, NUPL falling below 0, and spot prices falling below the realized price across the entire market. They do not simply represent poor sentiment, but rather the "average loss for holders as a whole." At the end of June 2026, MVRV was around 1.11, NUPL about 0.10; in late July, it returned to about 1.22 and 0.18. Reality$SOL **SOL Bearish on the sidelines, $72.8**
Down 2.4% in 24 hours, $72.7-74.5 fluctuated. MACD death cross -0.129, RSI 45.6 below the midline, 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $75.8 and 50-day at $76.3 both holding down overhead. A 10% drop over 30 days, this trend is hard to watch.
But don't rush to sentence him to death.
This week, whales secretly absorbed $17.4 million in SOL and withdrew from Kraken to release cold wallets. Western Union just launched its Solana payment system, covering 175 million Visa merchants across 37 countries—this is a real step in traditional finance. Weekly transaction volume just broke a record high of 1 billion, and it's not that there's no one using it on-chain.
Technically, a symmetrical triangle has converged since the beginning of the year, with $113 as the breakout target. But the premise is that you must first break through the $75-78 barrier.
**Vital Gate: $72**. If it breaks, it will slide directly to $68→$64. Only after breaking above $75 can you catch your breath; only after breaking through $78 can you claim a reversal.
Right now, it's just waiting to see the show—the fundamentals are improving, but the technical aspects are still being refined. Don't rush to copy; wait for the direction to emerge.Gold returns to 4200, why not follow $BTC? I choose to wait and see
It was truly outrageous. Gold surged back to 4200, while $BTC was lying on the floor, dropping only 0.63% in 24 hours, reaching a high of 65,000 and a low of 64,172, like a dead fish.
This wave of betrayal actually made me a bit uneasy 📰
I haven't opened a position at this level, just watching. The reason is simple—entering when the direction is unclear means paying fees to the exchange.
Gold and $BTC have always been somewhat interconnected, but this time the logic has completely changed. Gold is feeding on safe havens and expectations of rate cuts, $BTC is now about its own liquidity story.
🔴 Look at the transaction volume: in 24 hours, it was only 195.57M, a 52% decrease compared to the previous 24-hour period.
Without volume, any rebound is just a myth. And don't just look at the fact that prices haven't dropped much—they're already below the MA7 and MA30, and the short to medium term is bearish territory.
The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 1.27% bandwidth, indicating the market is about to lose patience and choose a direction. RSI 36.48 is still in neutral territory, not oversold, so the real low may not be here.
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? $BICO 昨天晚上到今天凌晨迎来了一次大暴涨。 我昨天上午写文章说，不建议在昨天上午的那个价格去做空$BICO 。 但是，我自己不知道为什么没有管住自己，去做空了$BICO 。 如果不是保证金加的及时，我可能就要被爆了。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 可以发现，在今天凌晨一点的时候，它的持仓量是到达了一个顶峰，对应的合约多空比也是到了一个低点。 再之后就是，持仓量的下滑和和多空比的上升了。 我们可以发现，持仓量现在已经下降到了和昨晚差不多的位置，多空比也上升到了和昨晚差不多的位置。 按理来说，这不算是一个做空的信号。 但是我们如果结合价格去看，就会发现一个不一样的东西。 就是它的价格是没有跌到和昨晚差不多的位置的，而且它的价格在今天凌晨一点之后是逐步上涨的。 在逐步上涨的过程中，它的合约多空比居然还在稳步上涨，这就有点奇怪了。 我个人推断，可能是有一部分空头被爆仓了。 空头爆仓其实也意味着这币即将到达顶点，因为爆拉的目的就是为了爆空。 空头爆仓了，庄家目的也就达到了。 —————————————————— 我昨天开工开的比较早，当时不知道发生了什么事Recently, international oil prices have continued to rise, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has once again become a focal point for global capital markets. Many investors believe that rising oil prices are only positive for the energy sector, but in reality, every rapid increase in oil prices affects overall financial market liquidity, risk appetite, and Federal Reserve policy expectations. For the current market, oil prices are no longer just commodity prices; they have become a key variable determining global capital allocation. Why does rising oil prices affect the entire market? Crude oil is one of the most fundamental production factors in the global economy. When oil prices continue to rise, costs in transportation, manufacturing, aviation, logistics, and chemicals will increase simultaneously, squeezing corporate profit margins and potentially driving commodity prices up again. If this cost pressure continues to be transmitted, it means there is a risk of inflation rising again. For the Federal Reserve, the last thing they want to see is inflation rebounding. If energy prices continue to rise, the Fed may maintain its "high interest rates, longer duration" policy stance, or even delay the pace of rate cuts that the market expects. Therefore, the market is trading not only about oil prices, but also about future changes in global liquidity. What changes will liquidity be? The core of liquidity comes from two aspects: funding costs and risk appetite. If rising oil prices drive inflation expectations higher, US Treasury yields tend to rise in tandem, and the US dollar index may continue to strengthen. In this environment, global funds typically prioritize flowing into safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, U.S. Treasury bonds, and cash, rather than high-risk assets. That's all#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
Gold rose to $4,200, while BTC was still hovering around $64,000, unable to keep up. The main reason is that the two are no longer considered the same asset class—BTC is now closer to US tech stocks, while gold is a true safe-haven asset, backed by central banks worldwide. On top of that, US institutional funds have been absent, ETF inflows are insufficient, and the market lacks a "big buyer" to break the deadlock.
$65,000 is the key level; only when volume breaks through can the market pick up; if not, keep grinding. Gold rising is gold's own business; BTC wants to keep up with the rise and is a catalyst in the crypto world.近期，美股三大指数在连续刷新历史新高后，开始进入震荡整理阶段。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数均出现一定幅度的技术性回调，不少投资者开始担心：这一轮牛市是否已经结束？ 从目前市场表现来看，答案或许是否定的。 这轮调整更像是上涨过程中的一次正常获利了结，而不是趋势反转。真正值得关注的，不是指数跌了多少，而是资金是否仍愿意在回调时重新进场。 为什么美股开始调整？ 任何一轮上涨行情，都不会一路直线上升。 经历连续数月上涨后，美股整体估值已经处于历史较高水平，部分科技龙头累计涨幅较大，市场自然存在兑现利润的需求。因此，近期回调更多属于资金主动降低仓位，而不是市场出现系统性风险。 除此之外，本轮调整还受到几个因素共同影响。 首先，国际油价反弹，市场开始重新关注能源价格上涨可能带来的通胀压力。 其次，美债收益率再次走高。债券收益率上涨意味着市场重新调整对美联储政策的预期，高估值成长股因此承受一定估值压力。 另外，财报季进入尾声后，市场开始从“看业绩”转向“看未来”。即使部分科技公司交出不错的财报，只要未来业绩指引略低于市场预期，股价依然可能出现调整。这说明资金对于估值的要求已经明显提高。 当前调整，更到底拉不拉盘啊！
我这一单已经扛了一个星期了
有没有1928附近被套的
50个ETH多单还在
现在就差一根像样的阳线救命
从今天亚盘来看
韩国KOSPI接近涨1%
日经也在上涨
风险情绪确实有所回暖
但股市涨不代表ETH马上跟涨
真正决定今晚方向的
还是20:30公布的美国非农
市场目前预期新增就业约8.8万人
失业率维持在4.2%
数据偏弱
加息预期降温
ETH才有机会直接突破1928
数据过强或者工资继续偏热
美债收益率一抬头
又可能先砸1880。
ETH也不是完全没有利好
8月5日美国现货ETH ETF净流入约6086万美元
其中贝莱德ETHA流入约5034万美元
说明1900附近仍然有机构资金接货
现在的问题不是没人买
而是所有资金都在等非农给方向。
1880到1900是短线支撑
1928正好是我的成本线
也是第一道压力
重新站稳1950
才有资格继续看2000
今晚要是插针跌破1880又迅速收回来
反而可能是狗庄最后一次洗多军
但跌破1850还收不回去
这单就不能只靠信仰硬扛了
——
$SNDK
闪迪这次不是财报差
而是市场预期太离谱
季度营收和利润都超过预期
数据中心收入同比增长超过100%
但下一季度指引没有达到市场最乐观的想象
股价盘前一度跌超10%
最终仍然收跌接近7%。
短线先看1200附近能不能守住
守住还有机会反抽1300
重新站上1350
才算把财报后的缺口收回来
闪迪长期逻辑没有彻底坏
但前面涨得太猛
现在进入了业绩再好也要挑毛病的阶段
——
$BEAT
BEAT现在明显比ETH弱
8月1日刚经历一轮较大的代币释放
释放规模约占当时市值的6.9%
随后几天最大跌幅超过40%
价格也从8月1日附近的4.59美元
一路回落到2美元上方。
2.3附近是短线防守位
守不住就容易继续寻找2美元支撑
重新站回2.6只是止跌
突破3美元才算真正转强
这种币现在最怕的不是BTC下跌
而是反弹时成交量跟不上
继续阴跌消耗多军
——
ETH不是完全拉不动
更像是在等今晚非农开枪
1928一旦突破并站稳
我这一单就有机会从解套变成盈利
但这单最大的风险已经不是看多还是看空
而是100倍杠杆根本不给犯错空间
狗庄
我已经陪你耗了一个星期
今晚要么把我抬回成本线
要么就别怪我和你死磕到底
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ 潜伏在零下三度的泥潭里十二个小时，睫毛上的霜花凝结成冰，但光学瞄准镜里的风速仪绝不会撒谎——整片阵地的气流在瞬间发生了剧烈偏转。在真正的猎场里，最致命的永远不是轰鸣的枪声，而是顶尖猎手在暗处悄无声息更换弹匣的那一刻死寂。意大利最大的金融装甲集群——联合圣保罗银行（Intesa Sanpaolo），在二季度的阵地掩体后，完成了一次极其狠辣的枪口转移。
调开他们过去一个季度的弹药库清单，BTC防线上的撤退堪称决绝。IBIT的现货持仓从646,809股被一路削减至40,723股，整整93.7%的重型火力被瞬间抽空。这绝非常规的战术性倒仓，而是毫不留情的卸弹撤离。更令人胆寒的是他们在衍生品侧翼的防御部署：250万股的IBIT看涨期权被砍得只剩可怜的1.8万股，与此同时，50万股看跌期权的防空弹药被迅速装填上膛。在他们的测风仪与弹道计算器中，BTC高空阵地所面临的风阻与下坠压力已经达到了临界值，他们宁可砸重金挂上防空看跌保险，也绝不给高位多头当肉盾。
退下来的巨额资金没有归零，枪口早已悄然锁定了新的目标。他们在贝莱德ETH质押现货ETF上的持仓，从11.62万股一口气暴增近三倍，飙升至34.96万股。这是一发带有“质押生息”属性的重型穿甲弹。对于这种级别的阵地战狙击手来说，单纯赌博资产价格的单边暴涨是菜鸟的行径；在长期伏击中通过质押不断补充弹药、以战养战，才是在残酷猎场中维持生存与绞杀力的顶级伪装。他们放弃了BTC高位震荡的虚火，将阵地彻底锁死在ETH的收益堡垒中。
看清了这个重装巨兽的弹道轨迹，美股Token标的 $XAVGO 的市场联动也就尽收眼底。作为主战场资金迁徙的横向观测点，$XAVGO 的筹码震荡正是大军挪用弹药时引发的侧翼气流冲击。当主力资金将重炮从BTC阵地撤下并全面装填ETH，衍生品与联动标的的弹性区间已被重新划定。
没有完美的盈亏比，绝不扣动扳机；当暗处的大口径狙击枪已经完成密位校准，阵地上的猎物还在对危险一无所知。
扳机压下第一道行程，子弹出膛前最冷酷的风吹过了。Copper prices have once again hit nominal all-time highs, backed by two hands: the US is strategically absorbing reserves, global concentrate shortages persist, and supply chains are being dredged out. Why should the crypto world take a look at copper? Because it's the most honest thermometer of inflation and industrial demand—copper prices usually mean real inflationary pressures exist, and this is precisely the way the Fed is being told not to rush to cut rates. So copper's new highs aren't entirely good news for risk assets in the short term; they reinforce the logic that interest rates will remain high over the long term. $BTC Assets that rely on liquidity must first digest this layer of macro pressure. Commodity signals often speak the truth before candlesticks. Those who know, understand.1. US stocks consolidate at high levels: Index slightly pulls back, nonfarm payrolls to decide on interest rate trading direction tonight. US East On August 6, after consecutive highs, US stocks shifted to a wait-and-see approach. The Dow Jones fell 0.85% to 53,885.10 points, the S&P 500 dropped 0.18% to 7,709.96 points, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.06% to 26,348.35 points. The core of the market is not a sudden deterioration in corporate earnings, but investors reducing risk exposure tonight before the US nonfarm payrolls, while uncertainty over the Hormuz negotiations pushes up oil prices and US Treasury yields. Opportunities and trends: AI and tech stocks remain relatively resilient, indicating that capital has not fully withdrawn from growth assets. If employment and wages cool down tonight and long-term bond yields fall, the Nasdaq and the AI industry chain may still be the most direct beneficiaries. Risks and warnings: New valuation pressures have emerged within software stocks, with the market beginning to worry that AI agents may erode traditional SaaS business models; HubSpot plunged about 19% in a single day, indicating that the AI theme is shifting from "benefiting all tech stocks" to a structural divergence of "who is replaced by AI, who uses AI to expand their moat." Key data changes: * S&P 500: 7,709.96, -0.18% * Nasdaq: 26,348.35, -0.06% * Dow: 53,885.10, -0.85% * Initial jobless claims: 199,000, still near historic lows. ⸻ 2. AI/Agent: Meta also engaged in overreach, A中东这条线又热起来了：特朗普下令彻查五角大楼弹药储备泄露、沙特情报称胡塞和伊朗革命卫队在协调策划袭击、伊朗推进禁止美以船只通过霍尔木兹的法案。油价跳涨，美股美债一起回吐。提醒一句老规矩：这轮战争风险市场不是当避险在定价，是当『通胀→加息』在定价。所以别惯性以为打仗就利多 $BTC——油一涨、加息预期一起来，黄金和加密很可能一起被压。地缘的第一反应看原油和两年期美债，不是看谁喊得凶。走着看，保护好子弹。$SNDK $SKHY $MU Analysis of the U.S. stock market closing on August 6
1. Index close
The Dow closed at 53,885.1 points, down 0.85%, opening high and continuing strong before retreating on increased volume; The S&P 500 fell 0.18%, fluctuating in a narrow range; The Nasdaq only edged down 0.06%, hedged by leading tech stocks.
2. Sector performance
Memory chips plunged across the board, with Western Digital plunging 13.03%, SanDisk and SK Hynix both weakening in sync, mainly because their earnings met targets, but growth guidance for next quarter fell short of market expectations, with funds concentrated after previous surges.
Tech leaders diverged, with Microsoft and Apple closing higher, while Nvidia and Google saw slight pullbacks; Energy and healthcare bucked the trend and strengthened, while industrial and real estate sectors weakened.
3. Market Logic
The storage sector's previous gains overdrawn valuations, leading to capital retreating from favorable policies; Risk-averse sentiment in the market is intensifying, with funds shifting from high-end growth stocks to defensive sectors; The Nasdaq has stabilized its market share through heavyweight stocks, with index performance diverging.
4. Market outlook
High-level technology and storage sectors continue to face short-term pullback pressure, market funds rotate into low-valuation defense sectors, and the technology sector has entered a phase of volatile digestion.📊 $ETH contract liquidation express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, this wave of short positions was frantically crushed by the Dog Traders...
In the past hour, liquidation amounted to about $277,700
Long positions were liquidated at about $242,600
Short positions were liquidated by about $35,000
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $440,200
Long positions were liquidated at about $66,500
Short positions were liquidated by about $373,700
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $6.9259 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $2.96 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $3.9659 million
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $15.212 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $8.643 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $6.569 million
From $ETH liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, with bears nearly 7 times the number of bulls, and the short squeeze was fierce right from the start; The 4-hour short advantage persisted, with a ratio of about 5.6 times, indicating a full burst of short squeezes; the 12-hour short advantage narrowed to about 1.34 times, with marginal weakening of short squeeze momentum; the 24-hour direction completely reversed, with long liquidations crushing the bears, with bulls at 1.32 times the bears. Dog Maker completed a fierce turnaround from short squeezing to long selling on ETH—short-term short chases were targeted and destroyed, long-term long chasers were wiped out all at once, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $15.21 million. Everyone should control their positions and avoid being recovered and cut off.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly"—"exceeding expectations" is just an entry ticket; any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + 14 billion buybacks, still knocked down by "not impressive enough."
SanDisk delivers explosive financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Adjusted EPS reached $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; The board approved a $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-on-year.
However, the after-hours stock price plunged nearly 8% at one point. The culprit is the next quarter guidance — median revenue of $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The 83%-85% gross margin guidance suggests that high gross margins may be entering a plateau period. 372% growth is insufficient, 14 billion yuan in buybacks is insufficient—the market wants "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC grows steadily, Arc takes on a new narrative
Before the market opened on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle delivered its Q2 results: total revenue of $701 million, up 7% year-on-year; net profit of $48 million, turning profitable compared to the same period last year. USDC circulating supply reached $73.3 billion, up 19% year-on-year; on-chain trading volume reached $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 151%.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company has significantly raised its full-year guidance for other revenue to $310–330 million, mainly reflecting the $242 million Arc token presale revenue recognized in Q2. USDC is the foundation; Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of rising crypto payment penetration, Circle is attempting to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubles, and the real storm is the unlocking flood peak
After the market closed on August 4, SpaceX's first earnings report was released: Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion.
In after-hours trading, the stock price once plunged more than 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not burn money. An even bigger storm came on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares were unlocked, with a market value of $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current tradable share. Less than two months after listing, the stock price had nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth led to the after-hours plunge, while SpaceX's 92% revenue growth earned the market's vote with its feet—"better" has become the passing line; only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to "delivering the answer sheet," every deviation in guidance and every dollar spent on capital will be repeatedly scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorizations were added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future? DeepSeek is about to raise API pricing. Don't underestimate this news—the main theme of AI over the past two years has been 'price wars': whoever offers the cheapest is grabbing users; Now that leaders are daring to raise prices, the signal has changed: from competing for territory to rent-collecting stages. Raising prices shows real demand and high replacement costs—this is the first solid proof that the business model is working. This is a bonus for the entire AI narrative, but it also means the industry is starting to stratify—those with pricing power and those without, valuations will be widened. Retail investors are still chasing concepts, while institutions are already watching who will actually get paid. The ones who will have the last laugh in this wave of AI will definitely be those who can collect rent. Those who know, know.A look before the 8/7 market open:
Yesterday, the A-share market was quite interesting. The Shanghai Composite managed to break above 3900, but both the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and ChiNext were in the red. The index rose, and individual stocks were evenly split between gains and losses. 2789 rose vs. 2590 fell, not a broad-based rally.
79 stocks hit the daily limit, with 22 stocks hitting the daily limit up; sentiment is still heating up. The strongest in communications (13 hit the daily limit), and chips and AI applications are also decent. Interestingly, coal suddenly moved in the afternoon, with 7 stocks hitting the daily limit. Is this trying to cut between high and low prices?
US stocks saw little movement last night; the Dow fell 0.85%, a bit more, and the S&P and Nasdaq closed basically flat. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose. The key is tonight's US CPI; before the July data is released, the market definitely won't dare to move recklessly.
Today is Friday, with CPI as the finale. The Shanghai Composite just touched 3900 yesterday, and today it will most likely be confirmed back and forth. Whether growth directions (communications, AI) can be performed depends on funds moving into low-level coal. The opening will reveal some meaning.
If 3900 becomes a withstanding water level, then next week there will be a chance to do it.看清楚了，各位，当我用左手抖开这张印着“44,000”的ADP劳动力数据白手绢时，你的眼睛就已经被我偷走了。🎩🕊️🃏
台下的散户们此刻正盯着那张写着“六个月来最弱新增”的牌疯狂欢呼，以为美联储那把沉重的加息铡刀终于要变成一朵散发香气的塑料玫瑰。他们指着冷却的劳动力市场尖叫：“鸽子！降息的鸽子要飞出来了！”
但这就是舞台上最经典的障眼法（Misdirection）。
在欺诈魔术的法则里，越是看起来无懈可击的“利好”，越是在掩盖暗格里的机关。那张远低于预期75,000的ADP小牌，不过是我抛向空中吸引你视线的一抹闪光粉。当你把全部注意力都放在“美联储加息立场动摇”的幻象上时，我的右手早就躲在黑色斗篷的阴影里，完成了一次干脆利落的底牌偷换（Bottom Deal）。
美联储那群老官僚依然把通胀的阴影藏在舌底，用模棱两可的警告维系着这场戏的悬念。你以为鹰派退场了？看看CME押注盘上的真金白银吧，9月份再加息25个基点的概率不仅没有崩塌，反而悄无声息地压过了50%！这根本不是暂停加息的欢庆会，而是一场标准的“强迫选牌”（Forced Card）——庄家让你以为自己握住了鸽派的筹码，实际上你选中的每一张牌，都在他的掌控之中。
加密世界的资金链从来不是独立存在的，它只是牵在宏观流动性傀儡手上的悬丝。特别是像 $XCH 这样与美股市场联动极其敏感的标的，此刻正悬在半空中的钢丝绳上。它的盘面脉搏看似随着ADP的降温而产生微弱抽动，但这不过是后台道具师拉动绳索造成的视觉误差。
散户在欢呼劳动力降温，却无视了加息阴影仍在暗处蓄力。周五的非农报告和下周的CPI数据，才是悬挂在舞台顶棚上的两把连环暗弩。只要通胀数据稍有反弹，那只所谓的“降息鸽子”就会瞬间变成掐断流动性的铁钳。
在魔术师的舞台上，你看到的永远只是我想让你看到的倒影。在 $XCH 和整个宏观大盘的联动棋局里，试图靠单单一项ADP数据就做多冲锋的人，不过是在机关地板上跳舞。
真正致命的切牌动作，永远发生在观众以为戏码已经落幕的瞬间。One of the most noteworthy stories today: SpaceX plans to expand storage for Texas chip factories' self-built natural gas power plants, and Tesla TeraFab claims to produce over 1 terawatt of computing power annually. Do you understand? The computing power race has shifted from 'how many cards to buy' to 'how much power you generate yourself.' Electricity and energy storage are becoming the true hard constraints of the AI era; whoever controls the energy has the right to talk about scale. Extending downward, the beneficiaries are not just chips, but also power, energy storage, and even storage—the entire AI hardware supply chain is being repriced. $BTC The energy infrastructure accumulated over the years of mining might one day find a new place in this narrative. Those who know, know—let's see for ourselves.Trump now calls the Fed Chair every day, and Washes has basically become the president's 'economic advisor.' So what was the trend—insiders say that as long as inflation data is strong enough, Washi is prepared to raise rates in September. You read that right—interest rate hikes. The market was still hoping for a rate cut recently, but now it needs to weigh whether it might be proven wrong again. My consistent view is: don't gamble your own position on the central bank's goodwill. The louder the hype about rate cut expectations, the harder they are trampled on when those expectations fall through. Tonight, the first hurdle is the nonfarm payrolls. With strong data, rate hike pricing is set back immediately. $BTC Don't expect liquidity easing to save the day; first weather this round of macro headwinds before discussing the market.📊 $DOGE Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, short-term bulls are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but long-term bears are starting to fight back...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was approximately $449.33
Long positions liquidated at about $423.45
Short positions were liquidated at about $25.88
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $3,429.05
Long positions liquidated at about $3,403.16
Short positions were liquidated at about $25.88
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $1.1826 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $638,000
Short positions were liquidated by about $544,700
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $2.7892 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $2.2381 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $551,100
From $DOGE liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed short positions, with long liquidations being 16 times and 131 times longer than shorts, respectively. The long selling trend unfolded fiercely during the short cycle; The 12-hour bullish advantage narrowed sharply, dropping to 1.17 times, with short squeezing significantly strengthened; 24-hour bulls overtook at about 4.06 times. Dog Zhuang completed a pattern of short-term long selling, medium-term long and short tug-of-war, and long-term long selling on DOGE, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $2.78 million. Everyone should control their positions well and don't be forced to buy back.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly"—"exceeding expectations" is just an entry ticket; any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + 14 billion buybacks, still knocked down by "not impressive enough."
SanDisk delivers explosive financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Adjusted EPS reached $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; The board approved a $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-on-year.
However, the after-hours stock price plunged nearly 8% at one point. The culprit is the next quarter guidance — median revenue of $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The 83%-85% gross margin guidance suggests that high gross margins may be entering a plateau period. 372% growth is insufficient, 14 billion yuan in buybacks is insufficient—the market wants "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC grows steadily, Arc takes on a new narrative
Before the market opened on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle delivered its Q2 results: total revenue of $701 million, up 7% year-on-year; net profit of $48 million, turning profitable compared to the same period last year. USDC circulating supply reached $73.3 billion, up 19% year-on-year; on-chain trading volume reached $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 151%.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company has significantly raised its full-year guidance for other revenue to $310–330 million, mainly reflecting the $242 million Arc token presale revenue recognized in Q2. USDC is the foundation; Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of rising crypto payment penetration, Circle is attempting to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubles, and the real storm is the unlocking flood peak
After the market closed on August 4, SpaceX's first earnings report was released: Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion.
In after-hours trading, the stock price once plunged more than 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times the same period last year—the market rewards spending efficiency, not burn money. An even bigger storm came on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares were unlocked, with a market value of $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current tradable share. Less than two months after listing, the stock price had nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth led to the after-hours plunge, while SpaceX's 92% revenue growth earned the market's vote with its feet—"better" has become the passing line; only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to "delivering the answer sheet," every deviation in guidance and every dollar spent on capital will be repeatedly scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming—and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorizations were added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future? The darkest part of a dead market isn't a crash, but even the biggest policy variables of the year are ignored—this kind of 'laziness to fear' is often the last quiet before the market changes.
This week, two swords hang overhead: The U.S. Senate said it will "without a doubt" vote on the CLARITY crypto bill (the most significant legislation of the year) this week, and the PMI data once again raised a "stagflation" warning, causing BTC to shrink coils below 65,000.
Market view: BTC solder 64,338 (-0.51%), volume -93.3%, slashed to scraps, OI 105,500 BTC frozen, fee rate +0.0006%, soft as if suffocated, fear greed 25 welded dead, breadth 5:10. The whole market is waiting, no one dares to move first.
Translate the term stagflation: growth has stopped, inflation remains sticky, the Fed can't reach both ends → liquidity tightening expectations→ BTC is the first to be treated as a high-beta risk asset in this narrative. Don't believe in the "digital gold hedging" scheme; real hedging is waiting for interest rate expectations to ease, not to hold out now.
Here's a set of "three macro tops to watch" for everyone:(1) PMI stagflation signal = liquidity tightening expectations, BTC sells first then diverges; (2) CLARITY Pass = certainty premium, Too Much = hanging sword; current zero pricing means the market treats it as noise; (3) Shrinkage Welding Dead = Waiting for macro + regulatory boots to land; it's not that there's no chance, but no one dares to take it.
My two trades, GRVT short -0.91%, ADA up -0.54%, still soldering underwater—the contrarian indicator cap is firmly worn. If I do the opposite, remember to do the opposite.
This week, do you bet BTC will break below 6.3 first or push to 6.6 first? A. Break and lie flat B. Fake breakout C. Reverse go short, comment with a letter.
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
$BTC $ETH #滞胀 #宏观悬顶 #CLARITY法案 #风控策略 #新手科普 #行情分析 #OKX星球On the morning of August 7, the sentiment index finally climbed back from extreme fear to Fear, but the market did not celebrate accordingly. BTC: $64,264, approximately -0.49% in 24H ETH: $1,901.02, approximately -0.42% in 24H SOL: $72.61, approximately -1.92% in 24H Today's strength ranking is: ETH > BTC > SOL. ETH barely holds above $1,900, BTC is close to 64K again, but SOL fell the most. The Fear and Greed Index rose from 25 to 29, indicating sentiment is recovering; the total market cap dropped about 0.50%, and volume shrank by 13.28%, meaning money has not followed the sentiment back. The external environment is also not helping. On August 6, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded about 5.3 basis points, the US dollar index rose about 0.28%, the S&P 500 dipped slightly, and the Nasdaq was nearly flat with a slight weakness. Liquidity has not suddenly tightened, but it is enough to cause the most fragile high Beta assets to fall behind first. In summary: sentiment is recovering, prices are retreating, and volume is shrinking — this is not a panic sell-off, but a failure of the rebound to gain momentum. 1) BTC: 65K failed to break through again, 64K becomes the defense line BTC is reported at $64,264, 24H volume about $18.52B, market cap about $1.290T, 24H range $64,114-$64,916. Recalculated by price and USD change, it dropped about 0.49% in 24H. Yesterday BTC was just one step away from 65K, today the high was still only $64,916, then returned to Challenger's layoff report has a detail: AI has been the main reason for layoffs for five consecutive months. It sounds surreal—AI companies are still burning cash themselves, most don't even have positive cash flow, yet they are helping other companies lay off people first. The market interprets this as a positive sign of 'cost reduction and efficiency improvement,' but I want to ask: what about demand? The profits supported by layoffs and cost cuts and real cash revenue growth are two different qualities. The biggest risk of AI narratives now isn't technology, but valuations that price all the productivity that hasn't been realized in advance. $BTC These high-beta assets, when the narrative is proven to be true, they won't reason with you when they fall. Take it one step at a time, don't treat it like faith is a top-up.Seeing the news that BlackRock's ETHA is about to merge 3 shares into 1, many people have already started imagining a big positive for Ethereum, but I can only say don't get carried away.
To put it bluntly, this is just an "appearance project" by institutions, with the total assets in the account neither more nor less, simply raising the unit price. Ethereum continues to decline, the ETF price looks low and unattractive, so they do a merge to beautify the price and also reduce transaction fees. Grayscale has long tried this tactic.
This operation has nothing directly to do with market rises or falls and cannot be considered a bullish signal. Don't be led by hype from the news, and don't rely solely on this kind of capital-packaged news to bet on direction. The capital market has too many tricks, and we retail investors must see clearly the real underlying capital movements.#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
For meme players: only take the bottom chips and firmly follow the theory of using small bets to win big. Never chase highs, so they didn't die. Also, honestly play primary levels, don't understand US stocks or secondary altcoins, so never touch them.
For level 2 players: didn't use the lever, just spot trading, so didn't die. Knew liquidity was exhausted, so didn't go all-in on single altcoins. Knew the inside info was unreliable, so never went into the palace twice, grabbed the first wave and then left. Just make a small profit, not obsessed with catching demon coins.
US stock traders: haven't chased storage at high prices or kept bottom-fishing hynix. This is the first wave of early profits from storage, but it didn't sell at the peak. Currently, it's a huge profit drawdown, so I haven't made much or lost big, so it's fine. I haven't bought many altcoins in the crypto world because I know innovation in crypto is lacking, altcoins don't have real breakout effects, mostly short-term forced liquidations.
$ZBT @OKX Growth Academy
Do you think the crypto world can change the fate of ordinary people?
Yes, but very rarely.
$CHIP A structural check-up of the market: $BTC rates have mildly turned positive, OI is at a low level, Coinbase has slightly discounted Binance, and 24-hour liquidations are still mostly forced by bears. On the surface, it looks like a formula for a short squeeze and rebound, but trading volume is extremely shrinking—a rebound without volume essentially lacks support and squeezing, not a trend. More importantly, this week crypto failed to keep up with US stock highs and gold surges, continuing the divergence of 'following the drop but not the rise.' The derivatives structure tells you: neither bulls nor bears have confidence, waiting for a catalyst. At times like this, chasing bulls or shorts is easy to get targeted. Look at your position.