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Major news has been released! Positive?
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the non-farm payroll will be implemented, and US stocks are set to face a key decision
At 20:30 this Friday evening, the July nonfarm payroll report will be released. This is the most important employment data since the Federal Reserve's July meeting, and it will directly rewrite September rate expectations, affecting all assets in US stocks, Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies.
Previously, ADP's small nonfarm payroll data was clearly below expectations, giving the market an early warning as employment gradually cooled.
The three data scenarios correspond to the U.S. stock market trends
Scenario 1: Nonfarm payrolls are significantly stronger than expected, and wages rise in tandem
Strong employment will delay rate cut expectations, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher. High-valuation AI technology and storage sectors are under the heaviest pressure, while growth stocks like MU and SNDK are prone to selling pressure; Dow blue chips are relatively resilient to declines, and the overall index shows divergence.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly, unemployment rises
The market will strengthen expectations for rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields will fall, which is positive for tech growth stocks. Storage and AI hardware have the opportunity to see a recovery and rebound. But one risk must be watched for: if the data is too poor, it could trigger market concerns about an economic recession, leading to a short-term broad drop.
Scenario 3: Data and expectations basically match
Employment cooled mildly, neither hot nor lukewarm. U.S. stocks continue the current tear-off pattern, with the Dow slightly strong, the Nasdaq oscillating at high levels, the market returning to earnings report logic, and sector rotation continues.
Putting aside nonfarm payrolls, the U.S. stock market will be the next outlook
1. The storage sector is currently in a phase of intense volatility following the financial report falsification. SNDK has made a deep V reversal, but the issue of downward expectations brought by the earnings report has not completely disappeared. Looking ahead, focus on whether the key support in MU can be held; holding it will mean sector differentiation and recovery; Once it effectively breaks below the threshold, the current round of storage will enter a mid-term valuation digestion phase. Don't treat the oversold rebound as a new main rally.
2. Structural market differentiation will continue to unfold. Stocks whose guidance exceeds expectations will continue to enjoy premiums; Even if profits are high, companies with conservative shareholder returns and future guidance will continue to be abandoned by capital. The broad rally has ended, making stock selection more difficult.
3. Risk points cannot be ignored. $SPCX massive unlocking pressure remains, which will occasionally disturb the market and amplify the spike volatility.
Key Targets to Watch:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
Stocks with Weakening Momentum and Capital Exits:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
Waiting for signal confirmation in the observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Strong stocks favored by capital:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Current market logic summary:
$BTC — The liquidity center in the crypto market, which determines the overall temperature of the market
$ETH — Institutional funds continue to build positions, gradually accumulating shares through volatility
$SOL — The elastic role of the Layer 1 sector, with considerable upside potential at market launch
$TAO & $WLD — AI remains hot and repeatedly favored by capital
$HYPE — A market speculative sentiment gauge used to assess current risk appetite
$DOGE & $ZEC — Retail investor sentiment window, intuitively reflecting short-term speculative heatWhy might nonfarm payrolls have a greater impact on SanDisk and Micron than on ordinary US stocks?
Tonight, the nonfarm payroll will not only affect BTC, but also highly volatile semiconductor and storage stocks like SanDisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU), which tend to be more sensitive to interest rate changes than the broader market.
There are three main reasons.
**First, SNDK and MU are high-beta, strongly cyclical tech assets. **Memory industry earnings are sensitive to product prices, AI capital expenditure, corporate inventory, and global economic expectations. When market risk appetite improves, these stocks often have greater upward potential; Conversely, when Treasury yields rise rapidly and the market enters risk-off, the drawdown of high-valuation semiconductor stocks is usually more pronounced.
Second, the market has already priced in very high AI growth expectations in advance. Reuters data shows that in the second quarter of 2026, U.S. tech sector earnings will grow about 72% year-on-year, and overall S&P 500 corporate earnings will grow about 31.1% year-on-year, with AI infrastructure investment being one of the most important driving forces. AI capital from major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon continues to expand, leading the market to assign high growth premiums to the data center, storage, network, and semiconductor industry chains.
But high growth also means high expectations.
The higher the expectations, the more sensitive they are to bad macro news and earnings forecasts.
SanDisk has already provided a very typical case. The company's latest quarterly results are strong, with data center revenue up about 400% year-on-year, but the stock price still fell about 13.3% in the latest trading day; Western Digital fell about 19.1%, and semiconductor stocks like Micron, Seagate, AMD, and Marvell also came under varying degrees of pressure. The market is no longer trading about "whether earnings are growing," but "whether growth exceeds previously high implied expectations."
Therefore, after tonight's nonfarm payroll release, don't just focus on new jobs, nor do you jump straight to SNDK, MU, and BTC just because the nonfarm payrolls fell short of expectations. What really matters is how the market interprets this set of data.
I will focus on this conduction chain:
Nonfarm → 2Y US Treasury → 10Y US Treasury → USD DXY → Nasdaq Futures → MU/SNDK → BTC
Among these, the 2-year Treasury yield is particularly important because it is most sensitive to Fed policy expectations; The 10-year yield reflects more long-term inflation, growth, and term premiums. Currently, the 10-year yield recently hovered around 4.6%, so if nonfarm payrolls cause yields to rise rapidly again, valuation pressure on high-valuation technology assets will increase significantly.
Scenario One: The most standard loose trade
If the nonfarm payroll is moderately below expectations, and the following occurs:
2Y ↓ 10Y ↓ DXY ↓ Nasdaq ↑ MU/SNDK ↑ BTC ↑
This indicates that the market is mainly trading in cooling employment→ the probability of further Fed rate hikes→ and marginally loose financial conditions.
This is the cleanest positive combination for BTC and high-beta tech stocks. For SNDK, after the earnings report, it has already undergone a significant correction. If yields fall and tech risk appetite rebounds simultaneously, a technical rebound is more likely.
Scenario 2: Weak data, but the market is not buying it
If the nonfarm payroll falls short of expectations but still appears:
2Y down but up 10Y; DXY is not falling; Oil prices are rising; Nasdaq is falling
It cannot simply be understood as "employment gap = loose = positive news."
This means the market may be trading in long-term inflation, fiscal risks, energy prices, and even recession risks. In this scenario, even if the headline appears bullish, SNDK, MU, and BTC could still decline.
Scenario 3: A typical higher-for-longer trade
If the non-farm payrolls are significantly stronger than expected, and at the same time:
2Y ↑ 10Y ↑ DXY ↑ Nasdaq ↓ SNDK/MU ↓ BTC ↓
So the market trading is the most standard:
Higher for Longer.
Reuters has previously experienced similar situations: strong employment data pushed the market to raise expectations for Fed rate hikes, putting significant pressure on risk assets.
For SNDK, this environment is especially noteworthy. It has just experienced "strong earnings reports still falling," indicating the market is already in a phase of high expectations, high valuations, and high sensitivity to bad news. If jobs are strong tonight and further yields rise, funds may prioritize reducing high-beta semiconductor positions.
Conversely, if the nonfarm payrolls remain moderately weak and yields fall in tandem, then "significant adjustment after earnings reports + easing macro interest rate pressures" could actually create favorable conditions for a short-term rebound.
But even so, we shouldn't assume SNDK has bottomed out just because non-farm profits are bullish.
True confirmation of a decline ultimately depends on price: reclaiming the key support that has been broken, gaining support on pullbacks, and reestablishing higher and lower points.
Macroeconomic data determines whether capital is willing to take risks, while technological structure determines where to truly enter the market. $SNDK #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment suppress inflation? Who is accelerating, who is cooling down: Comparing the hourly speeds of three assets back to the whole day
The most common misunderstanding in the one-hour trending chart is treating total volume directly as a trend. According to the official snapshot from OKX Onchain OS at 14:00 (China time) on August 7, BTC, ETH, and SOL were mentioned 36, 9, and 26 times respectively in the past hour; The total 24-hour volume was 1,325, 731, and 482 times.
To compare the two windows, you can first divide the total 24-hour volume by 24 and then compare with the latest hour. The results are BTC at 0.65x, ETH at 0.30x, and SOL at 1.29x. A value above one indicates the latest hour's activity is higher than the full-day average; below one indicates relative quiet; This is just the speed of discussion, not the rate of return.
By this logic, BTC has clearly slowed down, ETH has slowed down, and SOL has slightly accelerated. Whoever has the highest original mentions may not necessarily be the one whose baseline is heating up the fastest. Separating "highest volume" from "fastest acceleration" can reduce many misjudgments.
The tone also needs to be considered on another level. BTC is close to bullish and bearish, with 17% bullish and 22% bearish bias; ETH is slightly bullish with ratios of 33% and 22%; SOL is clearly bullish with ratios of 65% and 0%.
The key here is the denominator. ETH only happens 9 times per hour, SOL 26 times, so a few new texts can significantly change the percentage; BTC, although the sample size is large, may also include retweets and references from the same event. When ranking by percentage, don't forget how much text is behind each group.
The 24-hour average is not a perfect baseline. It mixes different market periods and also flattens the peaks before and after announcements. If the latest hour is higher, it may be a new event or just an active period; If it is low, it may be a natural cooldown. There is no continuous snapshot; the speed per session only describes the current position.
You can also do a simple reverse check: suppose an asset is mentioned more than twice as fast but the bearish ratio rises simultaneously; this should not be written as "heat turning bullish"; If the bullish proportion is high but the speed is only half the long window average, it is also inappropriate to say that new consensus is expanding. Putting these two counterexamples into the judgment framework helps avoid jumping to conclusions based on a single attractive number.
When I read these rankings, I divide them into three layers: one hour to find turning points, four hours to see if it can continue, and twenty-four hours to confirm if it becomes the main theme for the day. Finally, I refocus on spot trading, funding rates, open interest, and on-chain activity to see if there is real market participation behind the attention.
If the next round completely changes the speed ranking of the three assets, this ranking will only be a snapshot of a time period; If the same asset leads consecutively and sentiment gaps remain stable after sample size increases, then it is worth raising the tracking priority. Although this conditional judgment is not as catchy as "sure to rise," it is easier to verify right or wrong later.
Therefore, this set of dual-window data is suitable for answering "Where is it heating up" and not for answering "Where to go next" alone? Currently, the speed and tone of the three asset types are not exactly the same; keeping this difference is closer to the data itself than condensing all the numbers into a single bullish or bearish view.🇺🇸 CLARITY Act postponed to September, so why has the coin price barely reacted?
The U.S. Senate has confirmed that it will not vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess, and plans to wait until the session resumes on September 14 before prioritizing the advance of the cryptocurrency market structure bill.
At the core of the CLARITY Act is to clarify the regulatory authority of the SEC and CFTC over crypto assets, and to establish clearer rules for exchanges, token issuers, and DeFi. If passed, it would indeed be a major boon for the long-term development of the U.S. crypto industry.
However, this delay did not cause significant fluctuations in mainstream coins like BTC and ETH.
The reason is simple: the market had long expected it not to pass in August.
In recent weeks, the bill has failed to gather the 60 votes needed to move forward, with Democrats calling for stricter conflict-of-interest clauses, and bipartisan disagreements over enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, and DeFi regulations. As the recess date approaches, the market has gradually lowered expectations for short-term passage of the bill, and related risks are already priced in in advance.
Therefore, the official confirmation of the delay this time feels more like "confirming a result everyone already knew," rather than suddenly appearing as a new negative news. Since it didn't exceed expectations, there was naturally no need for a large repricing.
What truly deserves attention is whether the Senate can quickly find bipartisan consensus after reconvening in September. By then, the midterm elections will be closer, and there will be less legislative time available; If progress still cannot be made in September, the risk of the CLARITY Act being delayed for longer or even redoing the legislative process will truly increase.
In the short term, the delay has already been priced in by the market; In the medium to long term, September will be the real key test.
$BTC 📊 $OKB Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, this wave of shorts was brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $4,833.28 $0 $4,833.28
4 hours $4,833.28 $0 $4,833.28
12 hours $16,900 $0 $16,900
24 hours $17,000 $8.57 $17,000
From the $OKB liquidation data, **short liquidations in the 1-hour and 4-hour periods completely overwhelmed longs**, with longs at zero. The short squeeze unfolded with nuclear-level intensity in short cycles, with short liquidation amounts exactly the same ($4,833.28); the 12-hour short liquidation scale expanded to $16,900, longs still zero, the short squeeze deepening; 24-hour short liquidations surged to $17,000, longs only showed $8.57 resistance, almost negligible, shorts still absolutely dominant. The dog whales completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on OKB—shorts in short, medium, and long cycles were all targeted and blasted, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $17,000. Although the scale is limited, the consistency of the short squeeze direction is extremely strong, a textbook-level one-sided short squeeze. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered the stage of "expectations maxed out, flaws punished"—"exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Bigger the Boom, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-over-year increase of 557%.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance—next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has upgraded from "how good the performance is" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real—as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged about 40% drawdown; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016—three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" formed a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rebound After Unlock: Classic "Bad News Is Good News" Scenario
On August 6, the first batch of 911.5 million SpaceX restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing about $100 billion in market value. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the unlocking pressure; new selling was effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. But the alert is not over—another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth was exchanged for a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX’s counter-trend rebound on unlock day played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ As of Friday, the market has turned pessimistic about the US-Iran situation and the new plan for the strait, with a lot of noise in the market.
For example, Iran's parliament raised demands for the strait plan, Washington wants a no-charge plan, Saudi Arabia claims it discovers Iran is planning an attack, and so on—all of these make the new straits co-management agreement less optimistic
But personally, I believe this weekend is a critical point. The US-Iran situation has reached a critical point, so we should ignore the noise and try to reverse the logic with the goal of results
September enters a critical stage of the midterm elections, with the Chinese leader's visit to the U.S. scheduled for the scheduled date. Trump has already begun "playing cards out of thin air" to prepare for the multi-sided contest between China and the U.S., and these two events inevitably carry more weight than Middle East issues
Therefore, facing these two major events, Trump will not allow the U.S. or Iran to maintain a "fire" stance, and he must calm oil prices and ease inflation expectations. These issues require time to buffer, so the U.S. window to resolve the Iran issue is, in principle, less than a month, or even just 1-2 weeks
The current noise in Iran comes from internal hardliners, who need to be appeased before sitting down to negotiate with the US. The US noise is also meant to appease the military hardliners. Therefore, the Straits Agreement is a critical turning point. If this agreement is missed, both sides will inevitably return to a tense phase, an outcome neither the US nor Iran wants to see
As for Saudi Arabia, it has recently been working closely with the US, which naturally provokes Iran's hostility and targeting. Saudi Arabia's so-called Iranian attacks are likely preparations by Iran to prevent US attacks. Iran's strategy is simple: if it can't hit the US, it targets key US allies.
So, overall, although optimism is expected to cool, I believe the situation is still moving in a positive direction, and we look forward to a complete turnaround next week.
Regarding energy prices, although there has been a rebound, the overall strength of the rebound is not high, indicating the market has not yet entered a phase of genuine concern and panic. Please be patient and wait! #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻, oil price risks are heating up again Certainty Judgment: On August 5, Uniswap Labs officially launched the token issuance platform Pools.trade on Robinhood Chain—this is far from a simple feature iteration, but a strategic leap from trading infrastructure to the frontend of token issuance.
The platform offers two differentiated token issuance models to precisely meet project needs at different stages:
· Instant Launch: Suitable for projects that already have a community foundation. After creators pay initial liquidity, tokens enter the Uniswap v4 liquidity pool to begin trading, achieving a seamless launch.
· Crowdsale: Set a four-hour issuance window and use a time-weighted average price (TWAP) auction mechanism to suppress sniper bot front-running behavior at the institutional level. After issuance, tokens are settled and enter a permanently locked v4 liquidity pool.
The core design philosophy of Pools.trade is to permanently lock liquidity—which is fundamentally different from Pump.fun's model of migrating liquidity after tokens "graduate." Uniswap does not charge platform issuance fees, retaining only a 0.25% LP fee rate, of which 80% is automatically reinvested into liquidity pools to enhance depth, and 20% is allocated to token creators as incentives. In contrast, fees on other launch platforms generally reach around 1%.
The data from the first day confirmed the market's strong recognition of this new paradigm:
· On Robinhood, Uniswap v4 reached $73.6 million in transaction volume, surpassing Ethereum mainnet at $47.2 million, making it the most active network.
· As of August 6, the cumulative transaction volume has surpassed $150 million.
· On the first day of launch, about 6,000 tokens were minted, surpassing the combined daily issuance of competing platforms like Pons, Flap, and Bankr.
· By issuance platform trading volume, Pools.trade has captured 50% of the market share.
· The leading ecosystem token FRONG has surpassed $8.2 million in market capitalization.
The strategic background cannot be ignored: Robinhood has about 25 million monthly active users, making it one of the most widely penetrated retail investment platforms in the US. Uniswap, as the default AMM for its L2 chain, directly connects to this incremental user group who had never been exposed to DeFi before. In July 2026 alone, the number of new tokens issued through Robinhood Chain exceeded 340,000. More importantly, Robinhood Chain's revenue now accounts for nearly half of Uniswap's weekly protocol revenue, and Uniswap's revenue on this chain has surpassed Ethereum mainnet by nearly 300%.
Community controversy mainly centers on fee rate design. Critics estimate that with a trading volume of $1 million, creators on other platforms can earn about $6,000 in commission, while Pools.trade only gets about $500. In response, Hayden Adams said that high fees are essentially indirect tax extractions, ultimately sacrificing traders' interests; The low fee rate of 0.25%, combined with the automatic reinvestment mechanism, is more conducive to the sustainable growth of token liquidity over the long term.
The direct impact on UNI was equally significant: after the announcement, UNI rebounded nearly 7% from its 24-hour low. A bigger change occurred on the governance level—after Proposition 100 passed, a portion of protocol fees was redirected to the TokenJar smart contract, which automatically bought UNI on the public market and permanently burned it. Protocol daily revenue jumped from about $114,000 to over $325,000, as UNI is evolving from a pure governance token into a deflationary asset backed by real cash flow.
Pools.trade is still in beta, but a set of data speaks volume—before launch, trading volume facilitated by early contract versions exceeded $150 million. Uniswap completed a complete closed loop from infrastructure to traffic entry point to issuance tool in three steps: first fully deploying the protocol on Robinhood Chain, then launching the Launches discovery feature, and finally launching the Pools.trade issuance tool. From the backend of trading to the frontend of token issuance, this strategic path represents a profound change worth continuously tracking for UNI's long-term valuation logic.The crypto derivatives market is experiencing a widespread liquidity retreat. According to A's early issuance monitoring, Perp DEXs had a trading volume of about $498.2 billion over the past 30 days, down 63.4% from the peak of about $1.36 trillion in October last year. Almost all major protocols are contracting in tandem: Hyperliquid: daily average trading volume fell from $5.988 billion to $3.058 billion; Lighter: from $1.666 billion to $1.111 billion; GRVT: Sunday average volume down 59.1%; DYDX: Sunday average volume down 43.2%; Ethereum and Solana: down 26.8% and 22.5% respectively. During the same period, HLP's scale dropped to about $215 million, with a yield of only about 0.018%; Lighter LLP fell to $80.62 million. Market Characteristics Divergence: Trade.xyz is one of the few protocols that continues to grow—its daily average turnover rose from $3.888 billion to $5.134 billion, and its share of crypto and traditional asset contracts rose from 39.4% to 62.7%. At the core of this differentiation is that Trade.xyz connect crypto and traditional financial markets through perpetual contracts, covering US stocks and Korean tech stocks, and absorbing some cross-market trading demand during liquidity contractions within the crypto market. Some observations: Hyperliquid's HLP size has declined in sync with yields, indicating that the attractiveness of arbitrage funds is waning; Wintermut📊 $XAUT Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, this wave of short positions was frantically crushed by the Dog Traders...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $5,725.85 $0 $5,725.85
4 hours $75,500 $0 $75,500
12 hours: $91,500, $1,896,600, $91,300
24 hours: $139,500, $33,900, $105,600
From $XAUT liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour short liquidations crushed the bulls, monopolizing the shorts, and short-squeezing in the short term unfolded with nuclear explosion-level intensity; The 12-hour short advantage still led by a wide margin, with shorts outnumbering the bulls 481 times, and short squeezes running through the short-to-medium cycle; 24-hour short liquidations soared to $105,600, 3.1 times the shorts. Dog Farm completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on XAUT — short, medium, and long-term shorts were targeted and exploded across all directions. The bulls' only resistance appeared slightly over the long cycle, but it was just a drop in the bucket, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $130,000. As a gold stablecoin, XAUT saw a significant increase in liquidation volume today, with shorts bleeding like rivers and short squeezes unstoppable. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being resold and reckoned.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "fully loaded expectations, flaws must be eliminated"—"exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage stocks plunged after earnings reports: the more explosive the earnings, the harder the drops fell
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital reported $3.747 billion in revenue during the same period. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%.
However, SanDisk's stock plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit is the guidance—next quarter's median revenue is $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "good performance" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue to reach $992 billion in 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driving force. But short-term corrections are equally real—as of the end of July, leading AI storage companies had an average drawdown of about 40%; In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock market saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the supercycle has not been broken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed hawkish signals heat up: weak employment cannot suppress inflation anxiety
At the July FOMC meeting, three unanimous votes were cast against the same direction for the first time since 2016—three regional Fed chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. Voting member Kashkari even said that raising rates three times within the year is "not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? In July, ADP added only 44,000 new jobs, the weakest since January. However, wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM Services PMI price sub-index surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market's probability of a rate hike in September remains at 54.9%.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
As a result, the stock price did not fall but instead rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. After Wednesday's 13.6% earnings report, the plunge had already released the pressure to lift the lock; New selling orders were effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic scenario of "when all the negative news is gone, good news." However, the alarm was not lifted—another 319 million shares may be unlocked on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals; The Fed is torn between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" by rallying against the trend on the unlocked day. When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every point of guidance deviation is magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all the "not perfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? Is August really bad for Bitcoin?
Since 2013, BTC has had a bullish candlestick closing on August 9/13, nearly 70%.
Although there has been a slight rebound (2.3%) since the beginning of the month, the outlook for Bitcoin this year is quite unfavorable because funds are being drawn away by AI and other high-risk assets.
Buying power in cryptocurrencies, including ETFs, is also weak, with no new trends or narratives to attract more capital. At this stage, it feels like BTC is still testing its bottom for this cycle.
*For reference information, not investment advice A lockup expiry can reveal more about positioning than fundamentals. SpaceX rising about 6% as up to 911.5M shares became eligible for sale suggests the immediate supply risk may have been more anticipated than feared.
Still, the first post-IPO report leaves a harder test ahead: roughly $7.8B in revenue, up about 90% YoY, alongside a $541M net loss and concern over higher AI capex. My read is that the rebound buys management time, not immunity. From here, guidance, margins and cash discipline must turn the AI-space infrastructure thesis into measurable operating progress. Not advice, just analysis.
#SpaceXUnlockRebound #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs A lockup expiry can reveal more about positioning than fundamentals. SpaceX rising about 6% as up to 911.5M shares became eligible for sale suggests the immediate supply risk may have been more anticipated than feared.
Still, the first post-IPO report leaves a harder test ahead: roughly $7.8B in revenue, up about 90% YoY, alongside a $541M net loss and concern over higher AI capex. My read is that the rebound buys management time, not immunity. From here, guidance, margins and cash discipline must turn the AI-space infrastructure thesis into measurable operating progress. Not advice, just analysis.
#SpaceXUnlockRebound #OKXOrbit#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound $MU
Micron's Thursday decline was dragged down by collective valuation cuts in the storage sector, rather than a deterioration in its own fundamentals
Its Q3 revenue of 41.4 billion yuan (+346%) and gross margin of 84.6% remain strong, with medium- to long-term logic such as HBM4, strategic client agreements, and CPU-side AI agency remaining unbroken
Deutsche Bank believes that memory accounting for 50% of AI system value marks a structural shift, fundamentally different from any previous memory boom cycle
Currently, the forward P/E ratio of about 6 times stands at a crossroads of fierce bullish and bearish tug-of-war
Stored back and forth in a passive decline
800 and 1000 are psychological barriers
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? The reaction across memory and storage stocks this week taught me something important:
AI demand can remain strong while AI-related stocks still fall hard.
Western Digital beat estimates with roughly $3.75B in quarterly revenue and $3.56 adjusted EPS, yet investors punished the stock. Sandisk also delivered a strong quarter, including $8.97B revenue, but its next-quarter revenue midpoint failed to clear the expectations already built into the price.
That distinction matters.
The market isn't asking whether AI needs more storage and memory anymore.
It already believes that.
It is asking whether scarcity, pricing power and margins can keep improving fast enough to justify valuations that have already moved several years forward.
That's a much harder test.
Sandisk and Western Digital had risen dramatically during the AI infrastructure trade before this correction, so simply “beating estimates” became insufficient. Investors wanted another acceleration.
Meanwhile, actual memory supply still looks tight.
NVIDIA and SK Group recently expanded their long-term partnership around next-generation AI memory, while industry research says 2027 HBM negotiations remain constrained by limited supply.
There are even discussions around reducing memory configurations in future Rubin Ultra designs because of packaging and supply constraints. If that happens, I would not automatically interpret it as weaker AI demand. It could be engineers adapting the product to what the supply chain can realistically deliver.
That's the real bull test now:
Not “Is AI consuming more memory?”
But “Can memory suppliers convert scarcity into durable earnings before expectations outrun reality?”
That is the metric I would watch.
#AIMemoryBullTest
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
#SpaceXUnlockRebound
$BTC $XSPCX $SOL While massive bonds received several times oversubscription, secondary market stock prices continued to plunge, with capital expenditure expansion and the loss of core technical talent intertwined at the same time.
Alphabet completed a $25 billion bond issuance, with the longest tranche yield 1.3 percentage points higher than Treasuries and attracting $115 billion in orders, while $GOOGL shares fell more than 5% within two days after the news was announced.
The 2026 capital expenditure forecast has been raised to a maximum of $205 billion, leading to negative free cash flow. Combined with over $114 billion in debt financing since early 2025, the departure of core researchers has raised market concerns about the efficiency of fund use.
Rising financing costs and the loss of technical talent have intertwined, significantly dampening risk appetite in equity markets. The expectation that capital expenditures are difficult to immediately convert into commercial monetization is repricing asset values.
If large-scale computing power investment can quickly convert into measurable commercial income, driving cash flow recovery, market valuations will be supported again; If the pace of realization slows down to the consumption of debt interest and capital expenditure, the upward trajectory will be interrupted.
If the market confirms that model iteration delays caused by the departure of core researchers are confirmed, and continued cash flow consumption leads to high borrowing costs, selling pressure from position reversals may further expand; If the new management structure quickly demonstrates R&D efficiency, downside risks will be curbed.
The root cause of the current valuation correction lies in capital expenditure squeezing cash flow. If the pace of debt expansion slows or computing power monetization efficiency improves beyond expectations, the market's pessimistic judgment about excessive infrastructure consumption will be disproven.
In the next 7 days, focus on monitoring the spread between long-term government bonds and corporate bonds to assess the sustained transmission strength of debt financing costs to equity asset valuations.
#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, pressure to invest in AI intensifies. #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation? #CLARITY投票或延至9月, ethical differences remain unresolved📊 $NEAR Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, this wave of longs was brutally crushed by the short whales...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $129.34 $81.58 $47.76
4 hours $1,975.36 $1,740.93 $234.44
12 hours $180,500 $180,200 $244.44
24 hours $272,500 $270,500 $1,988.39
From the $NEAR liquidation data, the long-short gap in 1 hour is small, direction unclear; in 4 hours, long liquidations overwhelm shorts, longs are 7.4 times shorts, a full-scale long squeeze erupts; in 12 hours, long advantage sharply expands, ratio soars to 737 times, long squeeze reaches nuclear intensity; in 24 hours, long liquidations surge to $270,000, 136 times shorts, the whales have completed a full-cycle slaughter of longs on NEAR—short, medium, and long-term longs are all targeted and blasted, shorts’ only resistance is futile, total liquidation exceeds $270,000. Longs are bleeding heavily, the long squeeze is unstoppable. Everyone control your positions, don’t get harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 8
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a "fully priced expectations, any flaw will be punished" phase—"exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Results, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital’s revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix’s Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 557% year-over-year.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance—next quarter’s revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below market expectations of $10.82 billion. The market’s pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the results are" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion in 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real—as of end-July, AI storage leaders have averaged about 40% drawdown; in July, SK Hynix’s Korean stock had a max drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, SanDisk plunged 47% in one month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, so any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can’t Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016—three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth stayed high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: Classic "Bad News Is Good News" Scenario
On August 6, SpaceX’s first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing about $100 billion in market value. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% post-earnings plunge on Wednesday had already priced in the unlock pressure; new selling was effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. But the alert is not over—another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, stagflation signals are emerging; SpaceX’s counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ I don't think the latest U.S. jobs data can be read simply as “weak jobs = easier Fed.”
July private payrolls increased by only 44K, well below the 75K consensus, while June was revised lower to 95K.
But the details are more interesting.
Services still added jobs while goods-producing industries lost them, and education and healthcare accounted for a large part of the gains. At the same time, the ISM services index remained expansionary at 54.1, while its employment component fell to 47.4.
That creates a strange setup:
Economic activity hasn't collapsed.
Hiring is cooling.
But inflation pressure hasn't disappeared either.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook has already warned that inflation risks remain tilted upward, pointing to tariffs, energy and even the huge AI investment cycle as possible sources of price pressure. The Fed's July report also said inflation remains elevated relative to its 2% objective.
That is why markets are still assigning meaningful probability to a September hike despite weaker hiring data.
For crypto, I think this distinction matters.
A weak payroll headline alone isn't necessarily bullish if wage pressure and inflation stay sticky.
I’ll be watching the combination of payrolls + wages + unemployment + CPI, not one jobs number.
The difficult scenario for risk assets isn't simply weak growth.
It is weaker hiring without enough disinflation to give the Fed room to ease.
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
$BTC $ETH $BICO #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #Alphabet25BBond What caught my attention with SpaceX was not the 911.5M-share unlock itself.
It was how the market handled it.
That amount is larger than the roughly 639M shares originally sold in the IPO, so on paper this was a serious increase in available supply.
Normally, that creates a simple fear: insiders get liquidity, more shares hit the market, price comes under pressure.
Instead, SpaceX jumped after the restriction expired.
To me, that says part of the selling risk had already been priced before the actual event. The market spent days preparing for supply that did not arrive as aggressively as feared.
But I think the bigger story starts now.
SpaceX also reported $7.8B in quarterly revenue, around 90% higher YoY, while posting a $541M net loss. The uncomfortable number was spending: AI infrastructure investment reached roughly $15.8B as the company builds much deeper into compute.
So the question is slowly changing.
Before the unlock, investors were asking: Who will sell?
Now they need to ask: How efficiently can SpaceX turn this enormous infrastructure spending into future cash flow?
More lockup tranches are still coming, with around 40% of shares expected to become tradable by December. That keeps supply risk alive.
The first unlock tested liquidity.
The next phase tests execution.
$SPCX $SNDK $BTC
#SpaceXUnlockRebound
#AIMemoryBullTest I said in round 14 that "only if Guang rebounds with 9 gains and 6 falls does it count as a confirmed rise," and at this moment, OKX went straight to 13 up and 2 down. The signal was here, but Fear was stuck at 29, BTC only +0.4%, and HFT, which had secretly dipped 21% yesterday, has now crashed at -19.69%—Guangdu is shouting for gains, but the mood is still scared out of its wits.
BTC finally turned positive this hour, $64,957, 24h +0.41%, no more pretending to be dead. Funding +0.0053% slightly neutral up, OI 105,100 BTC steady as old as an old dog, bulls still haven't pulled out.
The strongest evidence of capital flows is breadth: 13 rose and fell 2, a significant increase compared to the previous round of 8 gains and 7 losses. But volume did not keep up—total market trading volume remained flat at -3.3%, still characterized by "breadth leading and volume holding back" volume.
What does this mean for BTC/ETH? Breadth moves first (money starts buying small coins), prices move later (Bitcoin just turned positive), exactly the 14 rounds of "volume moves first, breadth moves later": now the breadth moves, prices follow, and volume is holding back.
Real review: My BICO long position is still alive (the +67.48% of the OKX leaderboard is still running at +67.48%, but started selling down at -2.49% in 1h), and I'm holding long ADA positions. Here's a framework I can take—broad explosion + big bing turning positive = short-term bull confirmation, but volume not amplified (flat at -3.3%), which means "breadth precedes volume," which is easy to fake breakout; Real market should wait for volume to rise above and fear of rebounding above 35. HFT from +21% to -19.69% is a living textbook: those who sneak away crash first, only those with broad stocks are reliable.
Do you believe in breadth or fear this time? A13 rose 2 times and fell is just a bullish horn; B. No volume release is all fake moves and run C. Anyway, HFT has collapsed, so I'll just lie flat. Brothers, mark the letters in the comments, using you as a contrarian indicator reference (manual dog head).
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
$BTC $BICO $ADA #OKX星球 #市场分析 #行情速递 #BTC行情 #资金流向 #市场广度📊 $BCH Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, this wave of short positions was frantically crushed by the Dog Traders...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $0 $0 $0 $0
4 hours $6,773.97 $2,246.67 $4,527.30
12 hours $13,400 $2,886.40 $10,500
24 hours: $26,800, $11,800, $14,900
Looking at $BCH liquidation data, there was zero liquidation within 1 hour, and the market was briefly quiet; Short liquidations in the 4-hour and 12-hour periods crushed the bulls, with volumes twice and 3.6 times those of the bulls, respectively. The short squeeze was fierce in the short and medium term; the 24-hour short liquidation still led by a wide margin, about 1.26 times, but bulls resisted significantly—from zero in 1 hour to $11,800. Dog Maker completed a short-term short squeeze and long-term tug-of-war on BCH. Although the bears still have the advantage, the direction remains uncertain, with cumulative liquidations surpassing $26,000. Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 8th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "fully loaded expectations, flaws must be eliminated"—"exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage stocks plunged after earnings reports: the more explosive the earnings, the harder the drops fell
SanDisk delivers a "legendary" financial report: Q4 revenue reached $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 557%.
However, SanDisk's stock plunged nearly 8% after the session. The culprit is the guidance—next quarter's median revenue was $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "whether the performance is good" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS forecasts that total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driving force. But short-term pullbacks are equally real—as of the end of July, leading AI storage companies had an average drawdown of about 40%; In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock market saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed hawkish signals heat up: weak employment cannot suppress inflation anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw three unanimous opposing votes for the first time since 2016—three regional Fed chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said that raising interest rates three times within the year is "not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? In July, ADP added only 44,000 jobs, the weakest since January. However, wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM Services PMI price sub-index surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" signaled classic stagflation. The market's probability of a rate hike in September remains at 54.9%.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, potentially unlocking a market value of about $100 billion. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of selling to trigger a sell-off.
As a result, the stock price rose 6.14% instead of falling, closing at $114.92. After Wednesday's 13.6% earnings report, the sharp drop has already released the pressure to lift the lockdown; New selling orders were effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market has played out the classic scenario of "when the negative news is gone, good news follows." However, the alert has not been lifted—another 319 million shares may be unlocked on August 20, and about 700 million more shares are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth led to a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals; The Fed is torn between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX used the unlock-up day to reverse the trend, playing out the classic scenario of "all bad news being gone." When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every point of guidance deviation is magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all the "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? Alphabet raised its AI capital expenditure for 2026 to $205 billion by issuing $25 billion in bonds, and, combined with the loss of core technical talent, is pushing up bond yield premiums and suppressing risk appetite in the U.S. tech sector.
The $115 billion oversubscription in the primary market confirmed the credit side's ability to support long-duration high-yield bonds, but the stock market priced in a single-day drop of 1.4% and a cumulative drop of over 5% to the risk of deteriorating free cash flow. Since early 2025, over $114 billion in bond financing and nearly $85 billion in equity financing have accelerated the company's capital structure toward high leverage, marking the first time since the IPO that a quarterly free cash flow turned negative.
The core factors driving the current market are: pressure on forward free cash flow leading to higher discounted liquidity value levels, loss of core technical teams leading to reduced efficiency in converting computing power into revenue, and the term premium driven up by large bond issuances for tech stocks overall. If high computing power investment cannot keep pace with breakthroughs in model iteration, capital expenditure will directly translate into permanent erosion of net profit margins.
The trigger for the upside scenario is that after the new data center is established in the first half of 2026, computing power can be quickly monetized, and the bond secondary market spread narrows to within 1.0 percentage points higher than government bonds. At this point, the key variable to watch is whether the cloud business marginal profit margin stabilizes again; the failure signal is whether capital expenditure will be revised up again in subsequent quarters or equity refinancing will dilute equity. Under this scenario, long positions will reprice around their infrastructure barriers.
The trigger conditions for the downward scenario are diminishing marginal computing power output, and continued loss of key research teams to competitors, causing delays in the productization cycle. Variables to watch include the decline in institutional concentration in $GOOGL holdings and the widening of credit default swap spreads; the expiration signal indicates that core products are undergoing a technological iteration with absolute advantages. If this scenario takes effect, the market will revise its valuation downward for cyclical, capital-intensive companies.
The failure condition for these polarization scenarios lies in a systemic shift in the macro interest rate environment, where the erosion of high borrowing costs on the balance sheet is offset by overall liquidity easing. When the average premium level of 10-year U.S. tech bonds shrinks sharply, the transmission chain of risk appetite will once again be dominated by valuation multiples rather than cash flow quality.
The key variable to watch over the next seven days is the trend of Alphabet's $25 billion bond on the secondary market in terms of spreads, as well as the pace of institutional repositioning of $GOOGL positions in the block market.
#西联稳定币卡落地, Visa Payment Scenarios Advance Further #Circle财报后押注Arc USDC Can Achieve New Growth? #CLARITY投票或延至9月, ethical differences remain unresolvedETH is starting to rise relative to BTC, and this signal is worth watching.
In recent days, the ETH/BTC ratio has stabilized around 0.0295-0.0296, with even slight signs of upward movement. ETH prices are now around the 1900-1910 range, while BTC is fluctuating between 64,300 and 64,400. In absolute terms, ETH's price fluctuations are not large, but its relative strength against BTC is gradually returning.
This wasn't a sudden spike, but rather that ETH had clearly outperformed in July: ETH rose about 20% that month, while BTC only saw single-digit gains. The ratio gradually rose from a lower point and is now stuck at this level and is repeatedly testing.
Key points are directly stated:
• If ETH/BTC can hold and break through 0.030, its short-term relative strength will be clearer, with the next target set at 0.031-0.032.
• Breaking below 0.029 means previous relative strength may need to test for a while.
• ETH faces resistance above 1915-1920; if it passes it, target 1950; Support below should first target 1835-1840; if it breaks further, it may move toward around 1800.
Why is it starting to strengthen? The core is that supply-demand and capital preferences are changing. The tradable tokens on ETH exchanges have been pushed to very low levels, the staking ratio has reached historic highs, and the actual amount that can be dumped has decreased. Additionally, products with staking yields (such as institutionally promoted staked ETH funds) have started attracting funds, and funds are no longer focused solely on the "digital gold" narrative.
BTC institutional ETFs are much larger, but the inflow pace has not been as aggressive as before. The market is starting to reprice: BTC is the bottom position, ETH has real uses (L2, stablecoin settlement, RWA, etc. are still running). Once risk appetite returns a bit, funds will shift slightly from BTC to ETH.
It's not yet a full-blown alt season, and BTC's dominance remains high. But if ETH's relative strength can continue, it often signals that capital is starting to spread outward. Next, it depends on whether the ratio can effectively break above 0.030 and whether ETH can break through 1920 with high volume.
Control your own positions—don't just watch the spectacleActually, I have always believed that the Federal Reserve is not as composed as the market imagines. Rate hikes seem more like a political performance before the midterm elections, while rate cuts are the already predetermined endgame — no matter how much the performance goes on, it can't change the inevitable conclusion of high interest rates coming to an end, which is also why I have been bullish all along.
Looking at the recent situation in the crypto space, Bitcoin $BTC has been repeatedly testing around $64,000, Ethereum $ETH hovers around $1,900, and a weak ADP report once pushed BTC higher. However, once hawkish signals reemerged, BTC and ETH fell about 2.8% and 3.6% respectively last week, with net outflows from spot ETFs.
ADP new jobs plunged to 44,000, less than half of last month, but PCE inflation remains high at 3.7%. Amid these conflicting data, Cook and Kashkari took turns calling for rate hikes, but everyone knows these tough words won't last long.
The capital market votes with real money. On August 4, Nvidia and Microsoft each contributed about $700 billion in market value, pushing the Nasdaq up 2.13%; but as the probability of rate hikes rose, memory chip stocks plummeted on August 6, with Western Digital down 13%, SanDisk $SNDK down over 6%, and AI software stocks also sharply falling.
Short-term hawkish rhetoric will continue, but once the midterm elections are over, high interest rates will have to come to an end. Debt pressure and economic slowdown make rate cuts not an option but an inevitability. Everyone is waiting for a turning point. $64,000 sideways torment: Why isn't the derivatives data lying this time?
In recent days, Bitcoin has been fluctuating narrowly above $64,000, neither surging nor dropping, causing many short-term traders to panic, fearing that another bearish drop is about to trigger a major crash.
But after I pulled out the CME futures-spot basis and exchange funding rates, my judgment was completely different.
If you've been watching the market long enough, you'll know that real crashes often happen when the market is extremely excited and leverage is piling up. But now, derivatives indicators reveal a very healthy and counterintuitive signal: retail investors' high leverage has been almost completely washed out, and the current sideways movement is an extremely gentle "defoaming" process.
This feeling is especially evident in my own account changes.
When Bitcoin surged to a high point recently, the annualized funding rate on mainstream exchanges once exceeded 30%. At that time, my long positions were being "cut at a loss" by high holding costs, forcing me to proactively close half of my positions to lay low. In the past two days, the funding rate across the network has basically dropped to zero, and CME's annualized basis has fallen back to a healthy range of around 7%. This means that those currently buying at $64,000 are definitely not short-term leveraged longs who could be liquidated at any moment.
So, who is actually supporting the buying demand now?
The answer is institutional basis arbitrage. They buy spot Bitcoin and sell the same number of short positions in options or futures markets, earning this 7% risk-free annualized basis return. This type of arbitrage capital is not afraid of losses because their positions are fully hedged. As long as the future-spot price difference exists, they will continuously buy spot, providing the spot market with a very solid "invisible base."
As long as this batch of hedge buying remains, relying solely on futures short sell-offs will make it difficult to create a bottomless pit below $64,000.
Of course, this also means it's unlikely the market will see a sharp rally in the short term, because arbitrage isn't directional buying—they aren't responsible for pushing prices higher. The sideways grinding may continue for a while. My current strategy is simple: don't touch any contracts, and during the vacuum, buy spot in batches between $63,000 and $64,000 during the vacuum.
If my judgment is wrong, I focus on whether the CME basis falls below 5%. If the basis shows an abnormally negative premium, it means arbitrage funds are collectively withdrawing, and I will not hesitate to withdraw from my defenses.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard SanDisk and Western Digital's earnings far exceeded expectations, yet their stock prices plummeted. The market had previously set expectations too high, and the quarterly report guidance failed to meet these lofty hopes, prompting investors to take profits and flee. The strong demand for AI memory remains robust, with supply shortages continuing through 2027, so the bull market foundation remains intact. The market has now entered a phase of high volatility, with short-term fluctuations but long-term prospects still promising. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 📊 $SOL Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, this wave of short positions was frantically crushed by the Dog Traders...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $473,200, $43,500, $429,700
4 hours: $548,600, $79,200, $469,400
12 hours: $1,723,700 $1,246,000 $477,600
24 hours: $3.6414 million, $3.0303 million, $611,100
From $SOL liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour short liquidations crushed the longs, with short liquidations 9.8 times and 5.9 times longer than the bulls. The short squeeze unfolded with nuclear explosion-level intensity in the short cycle; the 12-hour direction reversed, with long liquidations overtaking short positions at about 2.6 times, leading to a full-blown long selling; 24-hour long liquidations soared to $3.03 million, 4.96 times the bears' price. Dog Zhuang made a fierce turn from short squeezing to long selling on SOL—short-term short chasers were targeted and destroyed, medium- to long-term long chasers were wiped out all at once, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $3.64 million. Everyone should control their positions and avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "fully loaded expectations, flaws must be eliminated"—"exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage stocks plunged after earnings reports: the more explosive the earnings, the harder the drops fell
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital reported $3.747 billion in revenue during the same period. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%.
However, SanDisk's stock plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit is the guidance—next quarter's median revenue is $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "good performance" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue to reach $992 billion in 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driving force. But short-term corrections are equally real—as of the end of July, leading AI storage companies had an average drawdown of about 40%; In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock market saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the supercycle has not been broken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed hawkish signals heat up: weak employment cannot suppress inflation anxiety
At the July FOMC meeting, three unanimous votes were cast against the same direction for the first time since 2016—three regional Fed chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. Voting member Kashkari even said that raising rates three times within the year is "not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? In July, ADP added only 44,000 new jobs, the weakest since January. However, wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM Services PMI price sub-index surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market's probability of a rate hike in September remains at 54.9%.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
As a result, the stock price did not fall but instead rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. After Wednesday's 13.6% earnings report, the plunge had already released the pressure to lift the lock; New selling orders were effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic scenario of "when all the negative news is gone, good news." However, the alarm was not lifted—another 319 million shares may be unlocked on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals; The Fed is torn between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" by rallying against the trend on the unlocked day. When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every point of guidance deviation is magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all the "not perfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 就业疲软，为何仍挡不住美联储加息？
非农却接连降温：美联储到底听谁的？
近期宏观面矛盾突出：美联储内部分歧罕见，7月有3位官员直接要求加息25bp；但ADP、非农数据连续走弱，就业明显降温。
核心在于美联储规则：2%通胀是第一优先级。当前核心PCE仍卡在3.4%上方，加之地缘推高油价，通胀反弹风险是鹰派底气。就业疲软只能限制“大幅连续加息”，很难倒逼降息，最多让高利率维持更久。
现状：通胀端顽固，9月加息概率升至63%以上；就业端持续走弱，经济降温信号明确。
疲软就业拖不住加息预期，宏观流动性短期难以松绑风险资产。
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
This earnings season for storage stocks has been extremely uniform—explosive earnings and a plunge in stock prices. Last night, Western Digital fell over 13%, SanDisk nearly 7%, and SK Hynix ADR dropped about 5%. The results were dazzlingly bright, but the market's reaction remained cold.
Let's first look at how explosive the numbers are.
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was 8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, with EPS of $39.25 beating expectations, gross margin of 84.6%, and a $14 billion buyback approval. Data center revenue was $2.98 billion, doubling quarter-on-quarter and a year-on-year surge of 1298%. Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year, with EPS of $3.56 exceeding expectations.
Then the stock price crashed.
The trigger was that the guidance was "not good enough." SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter was 10.55 billion, compared to the market expectation of 11.148 billion. This was less than 6%, and the stock price crashed 9%. Western Digital's median guidance of 4.1 billion was actually higher than the expected 4.06 billion, but still fell more than 15%. Earnings beating expectations are no longer enough; what the market wants is "sustained amazement."
Core contradiction: Expectations are running too fast.
SanDisk's year-to-date gains have exceeded 460%, and Western Digital has about 200%. Stock prices have already priced in the "AI storage supercycle" script ahead of schedule. Goldman Sachs put it bluntly—"market expectations have exceeded reality." Storage prices are expected to rise 90% in Q1, 60% in Q2, and over 20% in Q3/Q4. The absolute value is still rising, but the pace of growth is slowing. When stock prices have priced in the perfect "sustained acceleration" scenario, any signal of returning to normal will be interpreted as a sign of a peak.
So, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Citi believes supply chain inventories are at low levels, the supply-demand adequacy ratio has dropped from 70% to 50%, and capacity cannot meet orders. Nomura also said AI-driven structural demand growth has not yet peaked. Morgan Stanley judges this is just a "health reset," with AI delaying the cycle peak by several quarters. The fundamentals have indeed not collapsed yet; HBM capacity is basically sold out by 2027, and long-term contracts have locked in revenue for the coming years.
But several warning signs have already emerged. Gross margin guidance was flat month-on-month, interpreted as a "peak." DRAM and NAND inventories saw a slight rebound. Consumer demand was squeezed by AI, with SanDisk's consumer business falling 32% month-on-month. The market is now trading not "how much more it can rise," but "when will the slope flatten?"
This round of storage is very similar to Nvidia's 2024 — gross margin rose from over 40% to around 80%, stock price rose tenfold, then sideways for over a year. Expectations topped first, fundamentals peaked later.
I won't go all-in at the bottom, nor will I go all out to avoid missing out. I use a grid to do swing trading within the range, waiting for the fundamental top to be confirmed or disproven by data. Before the signal lands, heavy positions bet on a signal that hasn't appeared yet to be staken.The numbers are impressive.
But the stock price is dropping first. Folks, AI storage isn't lacking demand; it's just that expectations ran too fast.
As of 07:59 Beijing time, $SNDK is at $1258.58, down 6.79% intraday. Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, up 51% quarter-over-quarter; data center revenue was $2.977 billion, doubling quarter-over-quarter. But about two-thirds of the growth came from price increases.
Demand is still there, and the bull market hasn't been killed by a single down day.
Ordinary investors should wait: can the price hikes continue, and can data center growth support the valuation? Don't rush to bottom-fish yet~
#StorageStocksDropAfterEarnings, #IsTheAIStorageBullMarketStillStable?, #USStockEarnings, #AIStorage, #TechForOrdinaryPeople#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound BTC and ETH options contracts worth over $2.4 billion will settle today at 16:00, marking the largest concentrated expiration event in recent times. According to Greeks.live data, 32,000 BTC options expire with a nominal value of $2.06 billion, a put/call ratio of only 0.26, and a maximum pain point of $64,000. During the same period, 177,000 ETH options expired, with a nominal value of $340 million, a put/call ratio of 0.77, and a maximum pain point of $1,900. Key signal interpretation: First, extremely low PCR exposure structural fragility. BTC's Put/Call Ratio remains at a low of 0.26, indicating extremely low put option open interest and a lack of systemic downside protection in the market. This also indicates that the market is not adequately prepared for downside risks, and if a negative shock occurs, it may trigger asymmetric fluctuations. If the market direction turns downward, positions lacking hedging protection will face greater adjustment pressure. Second, the maximum pain point is 64,000, which highly overlaps with spot prices. BTC fluctuated around $64,000 this week and has traded in this range for over two months. The biggest pain point closely overlaps with the spot price, meaning option sellers have the incentive to keep prices near this area before delivery, maximizing counterparty losses and reducing their own losses. This partly explains why the price has been sideways this week. Third, above 65K, a heavy resistance zone is formed. The price range above $65,000 represents the weight of the early rebound#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable? If employment hasn't collapsed, the Fed won't rush to cut rates; But as employment cools, the pressure to continue raising rates is less.
Looking at the latest US employment data together: in July, ADP private sector increased by only 44,000 (expected about 75,000), showing a clear slowdown in recruitment; but initial jobless claims were 199,000, below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, indicating companies have not laid off large-scale layoffs. This is a typical example of "low hiring, low layoffs"—hiring is harder to recruit, but no one is firing squid in bulk.
This situation is most comfortable for the Fed: jobs are too strong→ inflation can't be suppressed→ so rate hikes are needed; If jobs collapse→ recession fears→ the market will crash first. Currently stuck in the middle, the economy hasn't slowed down, inflationary pressure has no excuse to tighten further, and rates are likely to hold steady depending on future CPI and nonfarm payrolls.
For BTC, this is a relatively friendly awkward zone. With rate hike expectations suppressed by ADP, US Treasury yields and the dollar weaken in the short term, liquidity pressures ease, and both BTC and gold are likely to benefit—you see, gold has already reacted first, and $BTC is just basking in the heat around 64,000.
The next three lines are to watch:
Friday July Nonfarm: Consensus is about 83,000, below 80,000→ rate cut trading continues, BTC is likely to follow; above 100,000→ rate hike calls are coming back and putting pressure on the market.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: Whether it can fall from around 4.69% will determine whether the valuation recovery of non-yielding assets can be sustained.
Market Swings on September Rate Pricing: The probability of a rate hike in September is still around 55%, and nonfarms will be reassessed once released.
In short: what the market wants now is not bad news, but "just the right bad news"—employment is weaker, but not so weak that it goes into recession. In that case, both BTC and gold have a chance; If the data suddenly deteriorates, the logic will shift from "interest rate cut good" to "economic collapse," which is not just handing out money but risking lives.
(The above is a macro review and not an order order. Control your contract position and stop loss accordingly.)Western Union connects stablecoins, Solana, and Visa payment scenarios, which is more practical than many public chain narratives.
It's not just about issuing another stablecoin. What Western Union really wants to do is integrate on-chain dollars into its original remittance network: user receipts, offline cashing, merchant spending, and cross-border settlement, all trying to avoid being stuck by bank business days and correspondent bank chains.
What stablecoins have always lacked is not on-chain transfer speed, but the "last mile."
You can receive funds in 3 seconds, but if the other party can't get local cash, swipe a card, or pass compliance, then it's just a number in a wallet. Western Union's strength lies in its existing global outlets and risk control network, now using stablecoins as a backend settlement layer.
The real breakthrough is not shouting Web3, but making users not need to know they are using blockchain at all.
#西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound $ETH 这两天在 1900 附近磨来磨去，真的很烦。
一会儿砸到 1890，感觉要破了；
一会儿又拉回来，搞得人空也不舒服，多也不舒服。
但我刚刚越想越觉得，ETH 现在最麻烦的，可能根本不是它能不能上 2000。
是它以后到底还要不要给这么多人发“利息”。
现在社区吵的那个质押收益方案，说白了就是：质押的人越来越多，就少发一点新 ETH。
持币不质押的人当然开心，终于不用看着自己被慢慢稀释。
可另一边，靠 stETH、再质押、借贷循环吃收益的人就难受了。
收益薄一点，整套玩法都得重新算账。
这就像一块蛋糕原来够大家分，后来人越来越多。
有人说该少切一点，保住蛋糕；
有人说你先少切的，肯定是我这块。
连以太坊基金会自己都拿 7 万枚 ETH 去原生质押了，说明 ETH 早就不只是一个等涨的币，它已经开始像一份会生息的资产。
可问题也在这里：
ETH 想让更多人愿意持有，
又不能让所有人都跑去质押；
想减少增发，又不能把小节点先逼走。
所以今晚的宏观数据会决定短线怎么走，
但真正影响 ETH 后面估值的，可能是这场“收益到底归谁”的争论。
1900 能不能守住重要。
但谁能拿走 ETH 的收益，可能更重要。
$ETH #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ If $SPCX earnings report is positive and unlocking is not negative
Then what everyone should pay attention to is not the negative side but the positive side
Some say the negative has already ended, but actually it hasn't
Having chips doesn't mean you have to sell on the first day; the second or third day is also fine
One phrase "I think so" trapped so many people above 120?
With 910 million shares of chips, as long as there is one negative condition
This will snowball and create panic
I said exit at 105, still 0.3 short, now it's 114, I'm not in a hurry
Not everyone is a firm holder
They are just watching #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ How is it? What I said early this morning
$SPCX pumping was a bull trap to lure entries
Now it has dropped back to 110, all the gains from a few days ago are gone
I opened a position at 110, it peaked at 130, now back to 110
The first unlock is at 9:30 tonight, panic is definitely present
The largest unlock doesn't mean all 910 million shares will be sold
But if 100-200 million shares are sold at the current price
Then the price might fall back to the 100-105 range
Where there is panic, there are buyers bottom-fishing; breaking below double digits is just a matter of time
Why? Because there are multiple unlocks in August, and also in September
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ 📊 $XRP Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, the bulls and bears repeatedly squeeze and squeeze, while the dog farmer buys back and sells...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was about $96,000
The long position liquidation was about $1198.59
Short liquidations amounted to about $94,800
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $322,700
Long positions were liquidated by about $205,300
Short positions were liquidated by about $117,500
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $7.5807 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $7.4367 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $144,000
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $9.6458 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $9.4545 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $191,200
From $XRP liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, with shorts being 79 times the bulls, and the short squeeze flash started with a nuclear explosion-level intensity; The 4-hour short advantage narrowed sharply, dropping to 1.75 times, with marginal weakening momentum; the 12-hour direction completely reversed, with long liquidations crushing bears, bulls 51.6 times the shorts, and the selling of long positions erupted across the board; within 24 hours, long liquidations soared to $9.45 million, 49.4 times the shorts. Dog Maker completed a fierce turnaround from short squeezing to long selling on XRP—short-term short chasers were targeted and destroyed, medium- to long-term long chasers were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $9.64 million. Bulls are bleeding like rivers, and the bullish selling is unstoppable. Everyone should control their positions and don't get caught in buying and selling.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "fully loaded expectations, flaws must be eliminated"—"exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage stocks plunged after earnings reports: the more explosive the earnings, the harder the drops fell
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital reported $3.747 billion in revenue during the same period. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%.
However, SanDisk's stock plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit is the guidance—next quarter's median revenue is $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "good performance" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue to reach $992 billion in 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driving force. But short-term corrections are equally real—as of the end of July, leading AI storage companies had an average drawdown of about 40%; In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock market saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the supercycle has not been broken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed hawkish signals heat up: weak employment cannot suppress inflation anxiety
At the July FOMC meeting, three unanimous votes were cast against the same direction for the first time since 2016—three regional Fed chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. Voting member Kashkari even said that raising rates three times within the year is "not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? In July, ADP added only 44,000 new jobs, the weakest since January. However, wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM Services PMI price sub-index surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market's probability of a rate hike in September remains at 54.9%.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
As a result, the stock price did not fall but instead rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. After Wednesday's 13.6% earnings report, the plunge had already released the pressure to lift the lock; New selling orders were effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic scenario of "when all the negative news is gone, good news." However, the alarm was not lifted—another 319 million shares may be unlocked on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals; The Fed is torn between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" by rallying against the trend on the unlocked day. When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every point of guidance deviation is magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all the "not perfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? What SpaceX launched today wasn't a rocket, but a potential sell
SpaceX released its first financial report after going public: quarterly revenue was about $7.81 billion, up 92% year-on-year, and Starlink users doubled to 12 million; But the company still posted a net loss of about $541 million, and AI-related capital expenditures have made the market worry that "the speed of making money can't keep up with the pace of burning." Before the earnings report, I went long and saw a slight gain, but after the market plunged, most of it was back down—I personally experienced the bumpy return cabin.
More importantly, up to 911.5 million employee and early investor shares are eligible for sale today, accounting for about 12% of total equity. Note, this is "can be sold," but it does not mean all shares have already been sold. I am focusing on support at $100–$105, the gap between $108 and $110, and the $115 resistance. After the negative news became widely known, the most dangerous thing might actually be chasing the shorts. Do you think there will be a wave of selling today, or a short squeeze after the negative news materializes? $SPCX
#SpaceX #SPCX #美股不构成投资建议.I'm Ci Ge. Tonight at 8:30, the non-farm payroll data will be released. The market has been sideways around 64,750 all day, indicating the market is waiting for this outcome. Let's first look at a few key numbers. Nonfarm Payroll Outlook: What the Market Is Expecting. The US July Nonfarm Payroll report will be released tonight at 20:30. Market consensus expects about 80,000 new jobs, up from 57,000 in June. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal have more precise expectations, at about 83,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year. Economists' forecast ranges are very wide, ranging from 10,000 to 140,000. Vanguard Group expects employment growth to be only 18,000, while some optimistic institutions expect it to exceed 100,000. This divergence itself indicates that tonight's data carries great uncertainty. Wednesday's ADP data already serves as a warning to the market. The ADP private employment data released on Wednesday added only 44,000, far below the expected 75,000, marking the lowest increase this year. ADP has always been regarded as a leading indicator for nonfarm payrolls, and this time the gap in data is very obvious. Some analysts point out that if the combined data from the previous two months is revised down by 80,000 yuan, what the market sees is not a mild cooldown, but rather a rapid deterioration in employment trends. At the same time, initial jobless claims remain low, indicating that companies are slow down hiring and unwilling to lay off existing staff. ADP weakened but initial claims remained stable, showing a clear divergence between hot and cold in the job market. What the market is really waiting for is non-farm payrolls to break this deadlock. What institutions think about it: Ernst & Young Parthenon Consulting believes, that is$ALLO 今天猛涨了很多，我前些天抄底的，现在已经回本了。 我个人认为，现在追进去亏钱的概率是比较小的。 为什么呢？ 我们可以仔细看一下这个币的走势。 我们仔细观察可以发现，在这个币的第一波上涨中追进去，按照之前的两次反弹，无论你是在什么位置上追进去的，你大概率都是不会亏的。 当然，我们不能保证每次它都会像这个样子。 我只能说，按照之前的两次是这样的。 —————————————————— 我们看一下这个币的合约数据。 我们可以发现，虽然$ALLO 价格今天涨了很多，但是它的合约多空比依然是处于高位的，合约持仓量也没有大幅度的上涨。 我认为，这说明现在做空他的人依然不是很多，至少还没有到之前能让它暴跌的那种压力。 这就好比一个气球，现在还在吹气的阶段，还没有吹到之前爆炸的那种程度。 我只能说，按照之前的那个程度，现在还没有到顶。 但是我也不知道这个币的情况有没有发生一些变化，如果说突然有人在气球上扎了个针，那可能就要炸了。 譬如说之前的$H ，很多人做多做得好好的，结果突然发生了黑客事件。 然后$H 就暴跌了。 —————————————————— 我目前是不打算止盈的。 我个人是打Here’s how I’m looking at $SPCX right now.
If the earnings report comes in good and the unlock doesn’t turn into a mess, then stop staring at the risks. Focus on what can actually drive this higher.
A lot of people are calling the bottom in. Saying the bad news is over. It’s not. Not yet.
Just because you have chips doesn’t mean you have to dump them on day one. You can sell on day two. Day three. Be patient.
That one line “I think so” trapped a ton of people above 120. Don’t let hopium do that to you again.
There are 910 million shares sitting in that unlock. It only takes one negative headline for that to snowball into real panic selling.
I called the exit at 105. We missed it by 0.3. Now we’re at 114 and I’m not rushing.
Not everyone is a diamond hand. Most people are just watching, waiting for a reason to sell.
So watch the report. Watch the unlock. If both come through clean, the upside is what matters. If one thing breaks, this gets fast.
#SpaceXUnlockRebound $BICO #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #AIMemoryBullTest $ETH Just as the Hormuz Agreement began to take shape, it was blocked by triple shackles, and oil prices rebounded by more than 5% in three days—Old Mo tells you that geopolitical risk premiums don't dissipate so easily
Guys, last week I thought the strait was about to open, but this Monday it's all nonsense.
The agreement has indeed made progress, but it is a different matter from "opening up navigation."
On August 5, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghae announced that Iran and Oman had reached an agreement on the proposed geographic coordinates for the Strait of Hormuz, and the joint statement had entered the final review stage. Deputy Foreign Minister Ghalibabadi said that the original northern and southern shipping lanes would be closed, and a new temporary route passing through Iranian territorial waters would be activated, expected to last 2 to 4 months.
But Iran has also made the point a dead end—the strait will not be reopened immediately. Iranian parliamentary official Gudarzi made it clear that negotiations are only conducted between Iran and Afghanistan, and the U.S. is not allowed to participate. A Revolutionary Guard source was even more direct: as long as the U.S. continues to intervene and threatens Iran militarily, an agreement cannot be reached.
U.S. sanctions, insurance clauses, and international law are all triple shackles at the same time.
Industry sources revealed that the proposed agreement would give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. However, any toll measures would trigger major compliance issues—the U.S. has imposed sanctions on Iran's "Persian Gulf Authority," which operates the waterway. The U.S. Treasury Department also prohibits American personnel from accepting services related to "safe passage" provided by the Iranian government.
The insurance side is even tougher. At the end of July, Lloyd's Market Association in London introduced a new clause: if a ship pays any toll passing through the Strait of Hormuz, insurance coverage will be terminated. An insurance industry insider described shipping companies as facing a typical "dilemma"—Iran charges fees, and insurance rules prohibit underwriting ships that have already paid fees.
Iran is asking for 5% to 7% of the value of the goods, Oman is negotiating about 3%, and the US insists on restoring pre-war free navigation. Payments may trigger sanctions, and payment may immediately lapse war risks—even if a political agreement is reached, it may not materialize.
The market is repricing risk.
Brent crude fell from $79.36 on August 4 due to ceasefire expectations, but rebounded to $83.48 on August 7 due to traffic disputes and safety incidents. WTI rebounded from $75.77 to $78.84 over the same period. Brent has regained the key technical level of $83 per barrel.
After an explosion near Qeshm Island, Iran claimed to have attacked "hostile targets" within the strait. The Houthis launched large-scale attacks against pro-Saudi forces in Yemen, threatening Saudi oil tankers, the Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea shipping routes. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are expanding from a single strait blockade to a large-scale regional threat covering energy production, refining, and transportation nodes.
Back to the big cake ether.
BTC's latest price is around 64,355, down 0.67% in 24 hours. ETH is at 1905, down 0.40%.
The rebound in oil prices means inflation expectations are heating up again, putting pressure on risk asset valuations. But rising geopolitical risks are also driving up safe-haven demand—the market is being tugged back and forth between these two forces.
Key levels: BTC resistance above 64,800-65,000, support below 64,100-64,200, a break below 63,800. ETH resistance above 1920-1950, support below 1850-1870.
Old Mo said a few honest words.
Last week, the market was betting on "immediate opening of the strait and immediate collapse of oil prices," but this week it turns out to be all illusions. Iran wants control, the U.S. wants free passage, and insurance companies refuse to provide insurance—the three demands have become a deadlock. Brent's rally from 79 to 83 is a correction of the mispricing of "agreement equals navigation."
For Bitcoin, the oil price rebound → rising inflation expectations→ the Fed is reluctant to loosen easily, and this chain remains. But rising geopolitical risks are also driving up demand for safe-haven assets. Which of these two forces will prevail depends on how CPI moves on August 12.
Trade-wise: Before the direction is clear, lighten your position, wait for signals, and avoid betting on direction. If Bitcoin pulls back to 64,100-64,200 and stabilizes, you can try a light position, set a stop loss below 63,800, targeting 64,800-65,000. If volume drops below 63,800 or even breaks below 63,500, hold fast and don't bottom-fish. ETH should also stabilize and buy long at 1850-1870, stop loss below 1,830, target 1,920-1,950.
How do you think Hormuz's drama will end? Let's talk in the comments.
If you think Lao Mo can dissect things clearly, give a like and follow. When the key points arrive, I'll call you immediately. $BTC $ETH $BICO #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻, oil price risks are heating up again Uniswap’s pools.trade launch on Robinhood Chain matters less as another venue than as a test of whether issuance and secondary liquidity can become one continuous process. Linking token creation directly to Uniswap v4 pools, with a 0.25% LP fee and part of fees automatically added to liquidity, gives that thesis a concrete structure.
The early figures are notable: v4 volume reached roughly $73.6M on day one, while Hayden Adams said cumulative pools.trade volume exceeded $150M by Aug 6. My measured read is that UNI gains a credible growth narrative only if this activity proves durable. Lower costs may deepen liquidity, but pressure on creator economics could limit adoption.
Not advice, just analysis.
#UniswapLaunchpadBet #OKXOrbit📊 $SUI Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, this bull market was frantically rubbed by the bull market...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $2,469.37 $2,240.28 $229.10
4 hours $44,900 $44,600 $229.10
12 hours $102,900 $100,700 $2,211.95
24 hours $527,500 $518,900 $8,640.03
Looking at $SUI liquidation data, 1-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and 24-hour long liquidations crushed short positions, with long liquidations being 9.8, 195, 45.5, and 60 times the shorts, respectively, with a fierce sell-off intensity lasting the entire cycle. Short-, medium-, and long-term bulls were targeted and destroyed from all directions. The only resistance the bears had in the long term was slightly strengthened but a drop in the bucket, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $520,000. Bulls were bleeding like rivers, and the bullish sell-off was unstoppable. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back and cut off.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "fully loaded expectations, flaws must be eliminated"—"exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage stocks plunged after earnings reports: the more explosive the earnings, the harder the drops fell
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital reported $3.747 billion in revenue during the same period. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%.
However, SanDisk's stock plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit is the guidance—next quarter's median revenue is $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "good performance" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue to reach $992 billion in 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driving force. But short-term corrections are equally real—as of the end of July, leading AI storage companies had an average drawdown of about 40%; In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock market saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the supercycle has not been broken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed hawkish signals heat up: weak employment cannot suppress inflation anxiety
At the July FOMC meeting, three unanimous votes were cast against the same direction for the first time since 2016—three regional Fed chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. Voting member Kashkari even said that raising rates three times within the year is "not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? In July, ADP added only 44,000 new jobs, the weakest since January. However, wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM Services PMI price sub-index surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market's probability of a rate hike in September remains at 54.9%.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
As a result, the stock price did not fall but instead rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. After Wednesday's 13.6% earnings report, the plunge had already released the pressure to lift the lock; New selling orders were effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic scenario of "when all the negative news is gone, good news." However, the alarm was not lifted—another 319 million shares may be unlocked on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals; The Fed is torn between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" by rallying against the trend on the unlocked day. When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every point of guidance deviation is magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all the "not perfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? Google borrowed $25 billion, AI experts ran four projects—this race has finally revealed its true colors
Yesterday, Alphabet did something.
Issuing bonds totaling $25 billion.
It is divided into 10 tiers, ranging from 2 to 40 years, with the longest yield 1.3 percentage points higher than government bonds.
And then? $115 billion in orders poured in.
More than four times over.
While the market was frenzied over AI bonds, Alphabet's stock price fell 1.4% that day.
The money was borrowed, but the market didn't buy it.
You might ask: $25 billion, is that a lot?
A lot. But compared to Google's AI bill, it's not enough.
At the end of July, Alphabet raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to a maximum of $205 billion. That's more than double the 2025 project.
What is the cost?
This is Google's first single-quarter free cash flow turning negative since its 2004 IPO.
All the money earned was thrown in, and it wasn't enough.
So they issued bonds. 25 billion. Not enough? Issue more.
Since early 2025, Alphabet has raised over $114 billion in bonds. In the first half of this year alone, debt financing exceeded $50 billion, and nearly $85 billion worth of stock was issued.
One company, over two years, borrowed $200 billion.
All of it was poured into AI.
But that's not even the most heartbreaking part.
On the very day the bond was issued, another event was also happening.
Google's Chief Scientist Jeff Dean, after 27 years at the company, has passed away.
He left together with three top researchers.
He founded an AI company called Discovery Loop.
On the same day, DeepMind's CEO and Nobel laureate Hassabis stepped down from daily management and became chairman and chief scientist.
Nominally, he was promoted, but in reality—the researcher was invited out of the decision-making table.
Google split its AI division into three paths: those chasing products stayed, those who wanted the future stepped aside, and those seeking freedom left.
After the news broke, Alphabet's stock price dropped more than 5% in two days.
When these two events are put together, the picture becomes clear—
On one side is 25 billion yuan in bonds, on the other is the departure of four AI experts.
On one hand, people are spending lavishly to build data centers, buy computing power, and stack models; on the other, core talent is leaving.
Money rushes inward, people move out.
What does this indicate?
The AI race has officially entered its second phase.
What is the first stage? Technological breakthroughs. Whoever makes a good model first wins.
Google has Transformer, DeepMind, and Jeff Dean—the world's leading technology reserves.
But in the second stage, it's all about two things: capital and talent.
Money, Alphabet has—205 billion in capital expenditure, 114 billion in bond financing, and cash on hand.
But what about talent?
Over the past six months, Google's AI talent has been leaving in batches. Gemini's co-lead went to OpenAI, and core researchers went to Anthropic. Now even Jeff Dean is gone.
Who will use the computing power center you spent 200 billion to build? You spend 205 billion training large models; who will iterate it?
AI competition: Will the future rely more on technological breakthroughs or capital investment?
My answer is—neither.
The future depends on a positive cycle of "money keeps people, others spend money."
Money can buy computing power, but computing power needs to be adjusted by people. People can contribute technology, but technology needs to be built up.
If one is missing, it's a vicious cycle.
Alphabet's current situation is—there's enough money, but people are running.
Jeff Dean is neither the first nor the last.
When a company's AI strategy becomes "just throw money in," what will those who truly understand AI think?
"My value is not on your balance sheet."
$25 billion can buy servers, but not 27 years of technological faith.
$205 billion can build computing power, but can't build the next Transformer.
$GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, pressure to invest in AI is heating up Breaking: Russia beats the US to it. 🇷🇺
Putin has officially signed Russia's first comprehensive cryptocurrency regulatory law.
Key points:
• Ordinary investors can buy cryptocurrency through licensed institutions (up to about $3,700 per year)
• Qualified investors have no limit
• Exchanges must be licensed, meet capital requirements, and be regulated
• Cryptocurrency payments are still banned domestically in Russia but allowed for cross-border settlements
• Main provisions will take effect on September 1, 2026.
My view:
This is not Russia embracing Crypto, but rather starting to recognize Crypto as an asset, not a currency.
What’s really worth noting is the last point—allowing cross-border settlements.
Against the backdrop of US dollar settlements increasingly affected by geopolitical factors, cryptocurrency is gradually becoming another settlement tool for international trade, not just a retail speculation target.
Even more interestingly, Russia has completed legislation while the US CLARITY Act is still stuck in the Senate.
If more countries establish compliance frameworks, the valuation logic of Crypto will slowly shift from "speculative asset" to "global financial infrastructure."
My judgment: This is a long-term positive. The short-term impact is limited, but in the coming years, the real beneficiary may not be altcoins, but $BTC. #俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确 Tonight's Non-Farm Agricultural Prospect Analysis (Released at 20:30)
The market expects 80,000 new nonfarm payrolls in July, up from 57,000 previously, with an unemployment rate of 4.2% and an average hourly wage of 0.3% month-on-month. The leading ADP small nonfarm payrolls were only 44,000, far below expectations, laying the groundwork for this weakening in the nonfarm payrolls. However, the Fed is currently focusing on inflation; even if employment cools, it does not mean an immediate rate cut.
Three scenario simulations
1. Nonfarm payrolls are significantly stronger than expected (> 100,000, wages rise)
Employment is booming, high interest rates are expected to persist longer, and US dollar and US Treasury yields rebounded. BTC and US tech stocks are under pressure, gold is experiencing a short-term pullback, and the market is trading hawkish expectations again.
2. Data falls within the expected range of 60,000-100,000 (in line with expectations)
The tug-of-war between bulls and bears will not lead to a one-sided rally. The market is fluctuating repeatedly; the key is to watch the wage and unemployment rate subcategories, awaiting guidance from subsequent inflation data.
3. Nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly (<50,000)
Employment cooled further, expectations for rate cuts rose, and the US dollar and Treasury yields retreated, which benefited gold and provided momentum for a rebound in BTC and risk assets.
BTC is already weak at the minor levels, with key support below 63,500-63,000, and the daily core bottom at 62,500-62,000. Nonfarm payrolls tend to amplify volatility, and as soon as data comes out, algorithms sweep the market. Don't chase the first sharp rise or fall immediately; wait 5-15 minutes for the capital to digest before looking at the real direction. Always control your position size at nonfarm payrolls and don't heavily bet on the outcome.
Risk warning: Shared solely according to market logic and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard The Bitcoin options market appears bearish, but this is not because traders are eager to hedge downside risks.
In contrast, upside implied volatility has dropped to a historic low of 23%, indicating that traders did not anticipate a strong rebound. This reflects weak bullish expectations rather than heightened fears of further declines $BTC The Korean stock index opened higher and surged in early trading, but rebounded after a sharp drop of over 4% the previous day, reaching as high as 6,415 points, looking poised for recovery.
As a result, foreign investors immediately dumped their shares, causing the market to plunge all the way to a low of 6158 points. By the close, it barely recovered some of its losses, and the market ended down 0.6%.
This week marks the seventh consecutive week of decline, with overall market confidence being particularly weak. The rebound is mostly a getaway, with no long-term funds entering the market.
SK Hynix closed down 4.88%, becoming the main culprit dragging down the entire Korean market.
Trigger for the price plunge: Rumors suggest that Nvidia's new AI chip will reduce the use of high-end HBM memory. SK Hynix is a core HBM supplier, and the market is directly concerned about shrinking high-end storage orders.
Combined with the previous night's weak earnings guidance in the US stock market SanDisk and the collective plunge in the storage sector, capital panic selling occurred.
Contrast: Samsung Electronics bucked the trend with a slight close, shifting funds from high-end storage stocks like SK Hynix to heavyweight safe-haven stocks like Samsung.
Foreign investors sold over 60 billion RMB throughout the day, still buying in the morning session, but within the first hour of the session, they immediately reversed and crashed the market;
Only retail investors and local institutions bought at the bottom with modest buying, completely unable to withstand foreign capital selling, and the rebound was abruptly abrupt.
South Korea's storage giant SK Hynix plunged again, which will continue to suppress sentiment on SanDisk and Micron stocks overnight.
Yesterday, SanDisk plunged sharply due to weakening earnings expectations, and today SK Hynix is selling again. The storage sector is unlikely to quickly stop falling in the short term, and bearish sentiment continues.
In the early session, it seemed like a rebound was about to stabilize, but negative news + foreign capital fleeing directly shattered the market. Memory chips remain the hardest-hit area, and SK Hynix broke downward, continuing to put pressure on US storage stocks.SOL — Over 1 billion on-chain transactions, price flat!
SOL is trading at $73. On-chain non-polling transactions surpassed 1.01 billion last week, setting a new all-time high. Meme coins contributed 28% of DEX trading volume, and app revenue rebounded 32% from April lows. But prices are tightly suppressed by the 50-day EMA (79) and 100-day EMA (75)—strong fundamentals, weak prices, and widening divergence.
50% will continue to wear down 72-76; 35% will drop below 72 and test 67; 15% will stand above 76, aiming for 79-80 $SOL 📊 $CL Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, this wave of short positions was frantically crushed by the Dog Traders...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was about $10,700
Long liquidation was about $718.04
Short liquidation at about $9,950.49
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $69,400
Long positions were liquidated by about $59,300
Short positions were liquidated by about $10,000
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $132,300
Long positions were liquidated at about $66,300
Short positions were liquidated by about $66,000
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $892,100
Long positions were liquidated about $156,600
Short positions were liquidated by about $735,400
From $CL's liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, with shorts being 13.8 times the bulls, and the short squeeze was fierce at the start; the 4-hour short advantage expanded, rising to about 5.9 times, with a full burst of short squeezing; the 12-hour short advantage narrowed sharply, with bulls and bears nearly even, and short squeeze momentum nearly exhausted; 24-hour short liquidations soared to $735,000, 4.7 times the bulls' momentum. Dog Farm completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on CL—short, medium, and long-term shorts were targeted and destroyed in all directions, with cumulative liquidations surpassing $890,000. Bears are bleeding like rivers, and the short squeeze is unstoppable. Everyone controls their positions and don't get caught in the buying down.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "fully loaded expectations, flaws must be eliminated"—"exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage stocks plunged after earnings reports: the more explosive the earnings, the harder the drops fell
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital reported $3.747 billion in revenue during the same period. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%.
However, SanDisk's stock plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit is the guidance—next quarter's median revenue is $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "good performance" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue to reach $992 billion in 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driving force. But short-term corrections are equally real—as of the end of July, leading AI storage companies had an average drawdown of about 40%; In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock market saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the supercycle has not been broken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed hawkish signals heat up: weak employment cannot suppress inflation anxiety
At the July FOMC meeting, three unanimous votes were cast against the same direction for the first time since 2016—three regional Fed chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. Voting member Kashkari even said that raising rates three times within the year is "not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? In July, ADP added only 44,000 new jobs, the weakest since January. However, wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM Services PMI price sub-index surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market's probability of a rate hike in September remains at 54.9%.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
As a result, the stock price did not fall but instead rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. After Wednesday's 13.6% earnings report, the plunge had already released the pressure to lift the lock; New selling orders were effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic scenario of "when all the negative news is gone, good news." However, the alarm was not lifted—another 319 million shares may be unlocked on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals; The Fed is torn between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" by rallying against the trend on the unlocked day. When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every point of guidance deviation is magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all the "not perfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future?