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Apple is very likely to include Changxin Memory in its supply chain, but will not switch entirely. The most probable plan is to start from the Chinese market with small-scale procurement, mixing usage with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The main conflict in this matter is clear. Apple needs a fourth DRAM supplier to reduce costs and alleviate shortages. However, the U.S. does not want to see Apple personally bring a Chinese memory manufacturer into the global first-tier supply chain. Technical issues are actually secondary. According to The Wall Street Journal, Apple is testing Changxin Memory's chips on product lines such as iPhone and MacBook and has begun preliminary supply negotiations with Changxin. The goal is to use the related chips in some devices sold in China. The testing here is for DRAM, which is the operating memory, not NAND flash. Moreover, testing does not equal procurement, and negotiations do not equal orders. Previous reports have shown that both parties are still in the evaluation stage and have not reached a final agreement. Apple is also seeking approval from the U.S. government to reduce subsequent political risks. Bloomberg Legal Why is Apple suddenly in a hurry? The answer is AI.
AI data centers are devouring global memory capacity. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are prioritizing the production of HBM and server memory because these products have higher profits and customers are more willing to lock in orders early. Consumer electronics can only come later. By early 2026, some statistics show that standard DRAM contract prices have already risen by more than 50%. No matter how strong Apple is, it cannot conjure up capacity out of thin air. MacRumors cites Financial这句话肯定有人喷： 比特币不是最安全的吗？怎么可能比以太坊风险更大？ 如果只看协议稳定性、历史、去中心化程度，我同意，BTC依然是整个币圈最硬的资产之一。Bitcoin的设计本来就强调固定供应、规则可预测和尽量少改变，2100万枚上限也是其核心价值之一。 但我说的不是： “BTC明天比ETH更容易暴跌。” 我说的是未来5—10年的资产逻辑风险。 因为我越来越怀疑一件事： 如果加密货币最终不是推翻华尔街，而是被华尔街收编、改造，最后成为全球金融系统的一部分，那么最大的赢家未必是最纯粹的BTC，反而可能是最能干活的ETH。 甚至极端一点说： 加密货币越成功，“纯去中心化”这四个字在估值里的权重，可能反而越低。 比特币最大的优势，也可能慢慢变成最大的限制 Bitcoin最牛的地方是什么？ 很简单： 它基本不想变。 2100万枚。 规则清楚。 不需要哪个公司。 也不需要天天升级出新功能。 这就是它能够成为“数字黄金”的原因。Bitcoin官网本身也强调，没有个人或组织控制Bitcoin协议，货币供应透明且可预测。(比特币) 可问题来了。 如果未来加密行业真的走向： 稳定币 + RWA + 股票#现货ETF资金分化, BTC selling pressure remains
I think the current divergence in spot ETF funds is, frankly, institutions "readjusting positions and swapping stocks," rather than a full withdrawal.
Recently, BTC spot ETFs have indeed shown some "bleeding," with a net outflow on Monday. But behind this is a key phenomenon: funds are all flocking into BlackRock's IBIT, while other ETFs continue to flow out. This "single-point support" structure is actually very fragile; once buying on BlackRock's side slows down, the overall market immediately turns negative. The #比特币BIP-110 fork stalled, miner support is insufficient
Moreover, besides the ETF capital competition, large holders like Strategy have recently been selling BTC, further intensifying selling pressure on the market. #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate treasuries are becoming more diverse
Impact on BTC and ETH:
* Impact on $BTC: Selling pressure remains, making a major breakout difficult in the short term. BTC is very likely to continue fluctuating between $63,000 and $65,000, waiting for CPI data to indicate direction.
* Impact on $ETH: Instead, it has become the beneficiary of capital divergence. Recently, spot ETH ETFs have been attracting funds, indicating that institutions are moving some funds from BTC to ETH. If macro factors cooperate, ETH's resilience may be greater than BTC's.
#
$SOL It's been going well lately, and Dagou is starting to gain popularity
Operational Advice:
If your direction is unclear now, don't rush to bet on a one-sided market. If you have a heavy position, you can reduce some defensive positions; If you're light, don't rush to bottom-fish. Wait for Wednesday's CPI data to come out and see which side your funds are heading. "Nothing to Say, Nothing to Say"
🦅SpaceX's stock price has once again climbed above the $135 IPO issuance line. The previously concentrated short selling funds have been heavily harvested this round, and the pressure to close positions has directly pushed the market higher.
Last week, the company saw the largest unlocking of restricted shares since its listing, with an unlocking market value approaching the 100 billion yuan level. Previously, the market consensus was bearish, with widespread expectations of concentrated sell-offs and sell-offs. But the market trend completely reversed: on the day of the lock-up, the stock surged 6%, then on the second trading day it soared nearly 16%, with a cumulative gain of 23% over two trading days.
Many people wonder why the selling pressure after the lock-up lift was completely unrealized, mainly because the earnings report had already priced in pessimism in advance. After Wednesday's earnings report, the stock price plunged 14%. The market priced in all negative expectations of negative effects and high capital expenditures in advance. By the time the lock-up was actually lifted, early shareholders and employees were actually much less willing to sell than the market had anticipated.
Previously, short positions had unrealized gains exceeding $9 billion. After the lock-up was unexpected, short sellers collectively panicked and closed out their positions, leading to concentrated buying and driving up the stock price and triggering a short squeeze.
🐳 Core question: Is this rebound a valuation recovery after all negative news has been released, or is it just short-term sentiment speculation?
Currently, short positions still account for about 16%, and at peak periods, short positions exceed 36%, indicating that short positions have not been fully cleared. As long as the stock price continues to rise, short covering can continue to provide upward momentum; But if bulls weaken and existing short positions reverse and add positions, the pressure of a price correction will quickly emerge.
🐎 The only long-term catalyst: Grok 4.6 is about to launch, and SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company
At this stage, the core variable that could change the valuation ceiling is the Grok 4.6 large model, scheduled to launch this week. Musk officially announced that he will incorporate SpaceX's complete set of real-world space engineering data into model training, exclusively empowering Grok with rocket launch telemetry data, Starlink operation data, and spacecraft R&D data, greatly enhancing the model's engineering inference capabilities—an advantage that other AI companies cannot replicate.
Combined with the $18.3 billion AI capital expenditure reported in Q2, the company is heavily betting on the dual tracks of space computing power + AI, burning cash to the max. But once Grok is launched and gains differentiation, the market's valuation logic will be completely rewritten: no longer simply valuing aerospace rocket companies, but adding AI technology company premiums, raising the valuation ceiling significantly.
🐢 Rational thinking at the operational level
After two days of sharp rise, the stock price returned to the issue price, making the position unevenly awkward. In the short term, on one hand, there are bearish buying to support the bottom; on the other, there is a lack of new positive growth. Chasing rallies at high levels now offers very little cost-effectiveness.
Let's break down the market logic into two segments:
1. Short-term: Squeezed short market + unlocking negative news takes effect, the market tends to be strong, but after sentiment fades, it tends to spike and then fall;
2. Medium-term: Fully tied to the implementation of Grok 4.6 and the ability of AI business order fulfillment, only AI catalysts can enable a rebound to shift from sentiment to fundamental-driven trend.
Before substantial fundamental positive news materializes, blindly chasing high entry is not recommended; it is more prudent to wait patiently for catalysts to materialize or for corrections to stabilize. #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession #英伟达推动5000亿美元AI基建融资 #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? $BTC
$ETH
$SOL
目前比特币又触发了一个建仓的指标
卖方已经进入“极端衰竭区”（红色区域），也是本轮熊市第1次进入该区
对照历史数据可以发现，过去每一轮熊市都会出现类似的情况；有时还不止一次（图中标注1/2）。
当前1出现时，未必是熊市的最低点，但一定在底部区间。
后续，如价格震荡维持或更低，但指数没有更低，我标注为2；纵观历史，2的确定性都比1更高。
但风险是，2的价格也可能比1更高。
所以，目前为止，是可以打一部分子弹的
至少应该建仓3成 Wednesday's CPI is coming in hot 🔥 Will the September rate hike expectations completely rewrite the market?
The non-farm payroll data has already sent signals.
US July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000.
May and June employment data were revised down by a total of 103,000.
The market has started to drastically lower September rate hike expectations.
Different platforms show diverging probabilities:
Polymarket maintains a 63% chance of no rate change
Kalshi gives 65%
CME only shows a 55.6% chance of no hike, with a 44.44% chance of a 25bp hike.
The greater the divergence, the heavier the weight of the CPI.
This Wednesday's July CPI data is the judgment day.
Market expectations:
Overall CPI annual rate 3.5% → 3.4%
Core CPI annual rate 2.6% → 2.5%
But core service inflation stickiness remains, so don't be blindly optimistic.
👉 If inflation continues to cool:
Rate hike expectations will further cool down, giving BTC and the market a breather.
👉 If inflation rebounds beyond expectations:
September rate hikes will return, and the crypto space will face another wave of bloodletting.
The market has already started to react in advance.
BTC is oscillating repeatedly around the 64,000 level.
ETH is strengthening against the trend, holding above 1874.
Gold has surged violently with a weekly gain over 7%, as funds flee fiat credit.
Crude oil is also moving in sync; all major assets are waiting for the CPI to set the direction.
Don't rush to go all-in now.
Before Wednesday's data drops, it's all a game of speculation.
Once the data is out, it's real action.
Bet right and feast, bet wrong and bury yourself.
Brothers, manage your positions well and prepare for big volatility. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ CAPITAL IS ROTATING BACK INTO MARKET LEADERS: $BTC, $ETH AND $SOL TURN GREEN, BUT ALTCOINS REMAIN DIVIDED.
The market is showing improving momentum as most major assets move into positive territory. However, the gains remain relatively modest, suggesting capital is returning cautiously rather than triggering a broad liquidity expansion across the entire market.
$BTC: 64,084.8 USDT, +0.17%
$ETH: 1,880.31 USDT, +0.38%
$OKB: 95.27 USDT, +0.43%
$SOL: 76.21 USDT, +0.26%
$DOGE: 0.07021 USDT, +0.72%
$XRP: 1.0147 USDT, +0.24%
$BCH: 215.5 USDT, +1.03%
$BICO: 0.04173 USDT, -0.86%
$GRVT: 0.33222 USDT, +1.19%
$ACT: 0.0112 USDT, -0.16%
$1INCH: 0.08329 USDT, +0.26%
$2Z: 0.0542 USDT, -0.37%
$A: 0.06431 USDT, +0.33%
$AAVE: 89.37 USDT, +0.04%
$ACE: 0.11692 USDT, -3.96%
$ACH: 0.004323 USDT, -0.05%
$ADA: 0.1905 USDT, -0.21%
$AEON: 0.0531 USDT, -1.06%
Money Flow: $BTC +0.17%, $ETH +0.38%, $OKB +0.43%, and $SOL +0.26% are all trading slightly higher. More importantly, displayed trading value stands at approximately $221.42M for $BTC, $134.22M for $ETH, and $43.91M for $SOL, indicating that trading activity remains heavily concentrated in highly liquid assets.
Among altcoins, $GRVT +1.19%, $BCH +1.03%, and $DOGE +0.72% are outperforming the broader market.
However, capital has not spread evenly, with $ACE still down -3.96%, $AEON -1.06%, and $BICO -0.86%, while $ADA, $2Z, $ACT, and $ACH remain slightly negative.
The key point is that this is not yet a market where every altcoin is rising together. Instead, capital appears to be favoring $BTC, $ETH, and other highly liquid assets first, before selectively rotating into certain altcoins.
Conclusion: The market’s money-flow structure is improving, but it is still too early to confirm an Altseason. If liquidity begins expanding from $BTC and $ETH into a broader range of mid- and small-cap altcoins, that would be a much stronger signal of wider capital rotation.
For now, capital is returning — but it remains highly selective.
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
#OKXOrbitTopics
#DailyOrbit
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL $BEAT It's over. At least better than $LAB, and there's still a rebound. It's always been a castle in the air; the Bian, OK contract pool holds about 2% of circulating interest. When hundreds of millions are sold at high on-chain levels, the main players have already left. Now, the more prices fall, the more retail investors love to bottom-fish. When prices fall→ retail investors bottom-fish→ trapped investors cut losses→ → prices fall. Looking at the slowly rising contract open interest, you can tell it's already trapped in a death spiral. This contract pool has no main force; it's all market makers maintaining synchronized on-chain prices.#英伟达推动5000亿美元AI基建融资
Ultimately, AI is developing too fast, but costs are rising. If you pass all the costs to customers, they naturally won't buy it
So Jensen Huang came up with a solution: "financing" so that those without money can obtain money through credit and then continue using AI
This approach is a bit like real estate: back when real estate was just starting out, the market was flooding in, and prices kept rising.
Now, housing prices are too high, and those who want to buy a house can't come up with enough funds, so banks provide loans to keep driving up prices.
But what happened to the house now?
Finance is a double-edged sword: if used well, returns can double; if used poorly, it can bring about crises!!
No wonder when Nvidia announced this news, its stock price dropped by 2%. Maybe this is what humanity is constantly awakening to financially!!
#英伟达推动5000亿美元AI基建融资
#现货ETF资金分化, BTC selling pressure remains Trying to fight again?
The Hormuz Agreement has stalled again, causing oil prices to soar sharply.
WTI crude oil $CL rose to $80.98, while Brent crude $BZ also rose in tandem.
Iran's terms have been laid out: lifting the U.S. naval blockade, withdrawing U.S. troops from Iran's periphery, compensating for conflict losses, and unfreezing Iranian assets
These conditions are increasingly tough, and the likelihood of reaching an agreement in the short term is slim. Oman is mediating negotiations for safe shipping lanes, but there is still a gap between full reopening.
Geopolitical risks have continued to rise today.
The Houthis bombed Saudi Aramco's refinery again, and tensions across the Middle East show no signs of easing, with oil prices continuing to price uncertainty.
So why are BTC and ETH falling?
The market is recalculating: the continued rise in oil prices means inflation expectations are rising, and rising inflation expectations mean the Fed will find it harder to cut rates, and may even raise rates further
BTC fell to around 64,300, ETH dropped to 1,878, giving back previous gains
Mainstream coins are currently in an awkward position
Geopolitical risks push up oil prices→ oil prices increase inflation expectations→ inflation expectations delay rate cuts→ putting pressure on risk assets
This transmission chain is currently connected, and BTC and ETH are temporarily dominated by macro logic
Don't rush to bottom-fish now; geopolitical risks and oil price trends are still unclear, and CPI data is about to be released, so the uncertainty is too great
Wait until these two variables are implemented; control your actions and make your move once the direction is clear
$BTC $ETH #霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地, oil price risks are heating up #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate financial pools are diverging
Is MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin shifting to the AI sector?
I increasingly feel that a big possibility is coming.
MicroStrategy sold another 1,690 $BTC, cashing out $108.6 million.
Don't underestimate this amount.
What truly deserves attention is not Strategy's loss of 1,690 BTC, but rather a story once regarded as a guiding principle in the market that is quietly changing
The corporate treasury is no longer the perpetual motion machine for BTC.
In recent years, whenever the market saw companies buying BTC, it would get excited—institutions arrived, long-term funds arrived, and tokens were locked up.
But what about now?
Some people buy, some sell, some increase their BTC holdings, some increase their holdings of $ETH, and others start exchanging BTC for cash, gold $XAU, or buying back shares.
This made me think of a bigger question
Is the capital looking for the next main line?
I believe that the extreme bear market in the crypto world and AI capital rotation are actually more cautious about the latter gradually unfolding.
Why?
Because capital is always profit-driven.
If AI, computing power, and semiconductors can continue to deliver on performance and cash flow, while BTC's rise increasingly relies on the narrative of "companies keep buying, ETFs keep flowing, treasury keeps adding positions," then capital will naturally start to recompar:
With the same amount of money, should we continue buying BTC or chase the next wave of AI growth?
That's what really worries me.
I'm not saying BTC will immediately enter an extreme bear market.
What I mean is, the market may be moving from everyone rushing to buy BTC, gradually entering a phase where funds start picking assets.
And once this rotation truly forms, the most dangerous thing often isn't the day of the crash, but that you're still immersed in the previous narrative and discover that incremental funds have quietly gone elsewhere.
So next, I will focus on three key things
Will corporate treasuries still buy? Will ETF funds continue to flow? Can the AI sector continue to attract incremental funds?
If all three signals deteriorate at the same time, then it won't be a simple pullback.
It may truly be a major asset repricing.
Right now, I'd rather keep my bullets than bet on a story that has already started to diverge. $OKB In the past two months, OKB has been acting very unusual. Mingming Tian Shang's has been rising for over two months straight, but OKB's flash profits and pledge interest rates are as low as being sent to beggars. Based on my usual feeling, I guess Lao Xu doesn't want too many people to succeed in bottom-fishing right now. That's the only explanation. Otherwise, why has Mingming Tian risen for two and a half months? Why are flash profits and pledge interest so low? Simply put, they don't want too many people to get on board. Because OKB's price is too low right now.#Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate financial pools are diverging
Seeing the news that Strategy sold 1,690 BTC, many insiders were probably quite surprised at first.
Previously, Saylor released the Bitcoin Tracker chart, and the market generally expected continued Bitcoin holdings. But instead of buying more, the result was selling. This time, about $108.6 million was cashed out, with an average transaction price of $64,262. Part of the funds were used to buy back preferred shares, and another portion to replenish the company's dollar reserves.
What I pay the most attention to is not simply "big players selling coins," but that the logic of corporate crypto vaults has completely changed.
Previously, people had the stereotype of these listed companies as buying only and never selling, constantly hoarding coins to serve as long-term market buyers. But now, the situation is clearly diverging: on one side, Strategy has chosen to sell BTC to manage cash flow; On the other hand, Strive is still increasing its holdings by 6,236 BTC in Q2, and BitMine continued to increase its ETH holdings in July while also conducting stock buybacks.
It is clear that corporate treasuries have moved away from a single coin hoarding narrative and entered a new stage of simultaneous increase in holdings, share reductions, stock buybacks, and cash management 💡
Looking at the market going forward, we can no longer simply treat these companies as blind bulls taking over. On one hand, they will still add positions at appropriate positions, providing structural buying; But when companies face financing pressure or lack cash reserves, large amounts of BTC and ETH can instantly turn into potential market selling pressure.
This will become a key variable in the upcoming market and is worth our continued monitoring.#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在
Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, CPI becomes the biggest focus next
Here are my thoughts after reviewing the nonfarm data; this time the data was indeed somewhat surprising.
US July nonfarm employment unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, a large gap from the market expectation of 80,000, and May and June data were revised down by 103,000. It is clear that the labor market is cooling faster than everyone expected.
However, there is a contradiction here: the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1%, which does not indicate a broad economic weakening but is a result of a decline in labor force participation, so market views remain quite divided.
Currently, the market has already lowered the rate hike expectations for September, and the probability of a rate hike has clearly fallen. But we cannot draw a definitive conclusion yet, as the Fed’s biggest concern—the stickiness of inflation—has not yet lifted its warning.
The core focus now is on next week’s CPI data. If inflation strengthens again, the rate hike expectations will most likely return.
For the crypto market, the main theme is now very clear: the nonfarm data was just a prelude, and CPI is the key battle that will determine policy pricing in September. Everyone should keep their positions steady this week and wait for the data to be released before deciding on the direction. 苹果 iPhone 18 Pro 成本（BOM）暴涨 38% ！
根据 TrendForce 的最新报告，iPhone 18 Pro 的 BOM 成本增幅惊人，主因不是屏幕或钛金属，而是内存（DRAM/NAND）。
* 过去屏幕和处理器最贵，但现在内存价格自 2025年初 以来飙升了 5-7倍。内存占总 BOM 成本的比例已从 10% 狂飙至 34%-40%。
* 台积电 2nm 工艺的 A20 Pro 芯片成本比上一代高出约 50%，再加上首次引入的可变光圈相机（传闻单价高出 50%），这台手机还没出厂，成本就已经“遥遥领先”。
* 苹果多年来维持在 40% 以上的毛利率正面临威胁。如果苹果选择自己扛，利润率会缩水；如果转嫁给用户，售价可能面临 $250-$300 的跳涨。
*传闻 iPhone 18 Pro 的起售价可能被推高至 $1,349 甚至 $1,399。这意味着果粉的钱包需要经历一次特种兵式的考验。
* 苹果利润厚，还能割肉保销量；而利润薄的安卓厂商面对同样的内存涨价，可能直接面临卖一台亏一台的绝境。
利好：
* Apple 为了支撑 12GB 以上的内存需求，$ASTS 这份 Q2 财报最值得看的，不是亏损数字本身，而是公司终于开始出现更有分量的商业和政府项目收入，同时卫星星座、地面网关和运营商合作仍在同步扩张。 但也要看清阶段：ASTS 还没有进入大规模商业服务收入期，现在更像是用资金和工程进度，换取未来直接连接普通手机的卫星通信网络。 先看核心数据 AST SpaceMobile Q2 营收为 3152 万美元，去年同期仅为 116 万美元。其中产品收入 2443 万美元，服务收入 709 万美元。公司表示，本季收入主要来自网关交付和美国政府项目的阶段性里程碑。 归母净亏损为 2.31 亿美元，每股亏损 0.77 美元。公司维持 2026 年全年 1.50 亿至 2.00 亿美元的营收指引，意味着下半年仍需要看到更明显的收入放量。 订单和运营商合作开始形成收入基础 公司披露，商业合作伙伴合同和美国政府项目授标合计形成约 13 亿美元的收入订单积压；已签约移动网络运营商超过 60 家，合作方合计覆盖超过 30 亿用户。美国政府相关合同及授标累计超过 1.25 亿美元。 这些数据说明 ASTS 的合作网络已经不只是概念验证，但订单积压不等Bing Jinbi's latest script update.
The second bearish candlestick on the weekly chart has already started to break down,
And gold continues to be grinding up at its own pace.
Here's the most interesting part:
BTC is holding steady without falling, so it cannot form a truly large bearish candle for now;
Yet gold keeps rising.
This means market volatility has been compressed to an extremely extreme level.
On the contrary, I feel
It's not that there's no market right now,
Instead, they were waiting for a fuse.
When gold reaches the high I believe it will start consolidating,
BTC is very likely to start catching up on the decline.
And this time, I lean more to:
It's not a slow decline,
Instead, it accelerated directly.
For the second top in this round of gold, I don't think the upper limit will be particularly exaggerated.
What truly deserves attention,
Instead, it's the next phase after BTC finds its bottom.
By that time,
BTC's resilience will definitely outperform gold again.
So the real opportunity isn't chasing gold now,
Instead, wait for BTC to drop what needs to fall.
Remember to switch positions when the time comes.
Finally, let me share the script I'm most looking forward to:
A few real large bearish candlesticks,
completely shattering market sentiment,
Then BTC returned to around 48888.
I'm not waiting to guess every candlestick right,
Instead, wait for the moment when the odds really start to tilt.
$BTC $XAUT The increase in AI infrastructure leverage in U.S. stocks is now being transmitted to cross-market liquidity fixing. Nvidia, together with six Wall Street institutions, plans to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital to support computing power construction, targeting a preference for high-yield funds. If the US dollar index and interest rates remain high, the siphoning effect on U.S. stock assets will suppress the liquidity premium of gold and crypto assets. If volatility in U.S. tech stocks rises rapidly or capital exits, cross-market capital flows will shift back toward safe-haven assets.
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎 Cook: #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another, raising expectations for #标普收盘再创新高,8000 points#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
结束了，AI基建这轮财报季基本收尾了。微软、亚马逊、谷歌、Meta四大云厂商交出了一组很矛盾的数字——云收入在加速，资本开支在飙升，自由现金流在承压。但市场给出的答案完全不一样：微软涨、亚马逊暴涨、谷歌跌、Meta震荡。同样在砸钱，回报路径不同，市场给的定价天差地别。
微软是这轮最大的赢家。 Azure干到43%增速，Microsoft 365 Copilot付费用户破3000万。更重要的是它已经开始证明“钱能赚回来”，市场相信即使CapEx继续增长，收入与现金流仍有机会同步扩大。Q4营收900亿超预期，盘后一度涨超8%。年报特意提了一句：若按新折旧口径计算，净利润会增加约56亿美元。把服务器折旧年限从4年拉到6年，每年凭空多出几十亿账面利润。这种“会计魔术”确实能让报表好看，但并没有改变现金流本身。
亚马逊的剧本更直接。 AWS收入422亿，同比增37%，18个季度最快。积压订单4960亿，AI和自研芯片业务年化收入均突破250亿。全年资本开支指引从2000亿直接拉到2200亿，贾西甚至说“即使花到2200亿，2026年产能仍然不够，2027年也不够，2028年的需求已经非常惊人了”。两天涨了超过20%，市值破3万亿。花钱可以，但必须证明能产生回报。AWS的37%增速、4960亿积压订单就是那个证明。
Meta和谷歌就没那么幸运了。 谷歌云收入涨了82%，但资本开支指引直接拉到2050亿，Q2自由现金流转负，股价当天跌了7%。广告收入占大头，AI的回报路径远不如云厂商清晰。Meta那边更麻烦，广告收入还行，但资本开支指引从1350亿一路抬到1450亿。没有云业务，AI投入全靠广告一个引擎消化。市场在问：账算得过来吗？
四大云厂商2026年合计资本开支指向约7450亿美元，高盛预计2027年超大规模云服务商资本开支可能达到1.1万亿美元。而云业务积压订单年增超过150%，总金额约1.7万亿美元，增速明显高于同期约80%的资本开支增速。订单跑得比花钱快——这是AI资本开支还没到顶的核心信号。
但分化已经开始了。市场不再只看谁投入最多，而是看谁的投入能产生现金流。微软靠多层变现链条证明AI在赚钱，亚马逊靠AWS的37%增速和4960亿积压订单撑估值。Meta和谷歌——投入还在，但回报路径还没被市场验证。
AI基建的故事远没结束，只是市场开始算账了。算得清的，给溢价；算不清的，先跌为敬，尊重市场。#财报观察员: AI infrastructure financial reports take the stage in succession. I'm more focused on the $BB of selling shovels in the AI era
This week, AI infrastructure companies like Lumentum, CoreWeave, Coherent, Applied Materials, and Cisco have successively submitted their earnings reports. I think what's more important than just looking at a single company's rise or fall is whether the money invested by AI giants has actually started to turn into real orders and profits along the supply chain.
In the past, AI markets mainly traded "capital expenditure growth," but now the market is clearly more discerning. AI concept alone is no longer enough; orders, revenue, profit margins, and next quarter guidance all need to keep pace.
Instead, I pay more attention to these "shovel-selling" companies. Because no matter which model or cloud vendor wins in the end, the continued expansion of AI inevitably revolves around computing power, storage, optical communications, networking, and semiconductor equipment.
So in this round of financial reports, I will focus on two things: whether orders continue to grow, and whether high capital expenditures have truly translated into profits.
If orders and guidance from these AI infrastructure companies remain strong, I tend to believe that the recent correction in the AI industry chain is a result of valuation digestion, rather than the end of the industry trend.
What the AI market really needs to prove now is no longer the "great future," but rather: after investing so much money, has the industry chain actually made money? This may be the most important watershed for AI investment in the next phase.The market has been holding back for a week, now let's wait for Wednesday's hammer!
Wait for CPI, light positions to watch the show, and act only when the direction is right.
📊 Core Script Deduction:
CPI below expectations → rate cut expectations are directly triggered,
$BTC
A high-volume breakout above 65,200 is inevitable, with targets straight toward 66,000-67,000.
CPI exceeded expectations → Then beware of a decent pullback and prepare defenses in advance.
📉 Based on last week's data:
Last week's ADP and nonfarm payroll and employment data clearly weakened, and market expectations for rate cuts are already at their peak, with sentiment leaning toward the bulls.
⚡ Short-term rhythm:
No need to rush to gamble heavily on the market. A true bullish trend requires price volume to stabilize above 65,500 before fully opening the space; If the 64,000 level below fails, the pullback will be strong, so don't underestimate it.
✅ Strategic Recommendations:
The best strategy now is to hold a light position or wait and see, patiently wait for CPI to land, and then act once signals become clearer. The non-farm payroll market has already heated up; the rest of the big show will be on Wednesday.
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? Back in 2022, $BTC was trading around $15K.
Almost everyone was convinced $8K was next.
Bullish sentiment was basically nowhere to be found. 🥶
And yet, many of those waiting for the “perfect entry” ended up missing the move from $15K all the way to $125K.
Fast forward to today…
The mood feels strangely familiar.
Now, a lot of people are calling for $35K and waiting for an even better entry.
But what if history repeats itself?
What if $58K → $200K becomes the move everyone waited too long to believe?
The market doesn’t always give you the entry you want.
Sometimes, the biggest opportunity is simply the one most people refuse to believe is possible. 👀
$BTC
#Nvidia500BAIInfra
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge $SNDK 特朗普这嘴炮打法又来了：你封锁海峡，我也封锁；你要收费，我也要收费；现在你要赔偿，那我也要赔偿。
伊朗把赔偿、解除制裁等作为霍尔木兹全面开放的条件，特朗普直接反手要求伊朗赔偿。双方从“怎么恢复通航”，逐渐谈成了“到底谁赔谁”，油价也率先反应，WTI、Brent一度双双大涨约5%，Brent逼近88美元。
真正麻烦的是后面的传导：霍尔木兹不开→原油上涨→通胀压力回升→美联储更难停手。 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克甚至表示，可能需要多次加息才能把通胀压回2%。
这波油价对即将公布的7月CPI影响有限，但如果持续高位，会逐渐反映到后续通胀。
非农刚给加息踩下刹车，美伊又通过油价把油门踩了回去。#霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温 #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ 存储行业格局重塑。
早年三星、SK‑海力士盈利即扩产，产能过剩催生剧烈周期波动。
而今龙头战略转向，半数自由现金流回馈股东，克制产能扩张、深耕技术迭代。
供给收缩遇上 AI 需求爆发，存储景气周期延长，构筑超级周期根基。
SK‑海力士回落 115‑125 美元区间，即是优质的布局窗口。#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温 #比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足 $BTC $ETH $XAUT 黄金突破4400美元后能否持续上涨完整判断
一、核心结论（分周期）
1. 短线（1-3 天，CPI 数据前）：难单边持续大涨，以高位震荡洗盘为主
金价虽站稳 4400 关口，但日线 RSI 指标严重超买，半个月涨幅超 8%，大量短线获利盘等待兑现，盘面缺少增量资金接力，冲高后容易快速回落、反复拉锯，直接连续暴涨概率很低。
2. 中期（1-4 周，8 月通胀 + 杰克逊霍尔年会）：分两种情景
- 利多情景（大概率延续上涨）：8 月 13 日美国 7 月 CPI 通胀回落，降息预期进一步升温，金价消化短期超买后，冲击 4450-4480 压力位，中期上行通道打开；
- 利空情景（阶段性回调）：CPI 通胀反弹，市场降息预期降温，美元、美债收益率反弹，金价回踩 4350-4380 支撑区间，进入 1-2 周调整，但不会扭转中长期多头趋势。
3. 长期（下半年）：上涨底层逻辑不变，回调都是配置机会
全球央行持续大规模购金、去美元化长期推进、美国经济放缓、地缘避险溢价持续存在，多重结构性利多托底金价，大跌空间被完全锁死，年内高点仍有上移空间（机构目标 4600 美元）。
二、支撑金价继续上涨的核心逻辑
1. 政策预期核心利多
7 月非农就业转负，美国劳动力市场明显降温，市场大幅下调美联储加息预期，美债实际利率、美元指数同步走弱，无息黄金持有成本下降，空头集中回补形成上涨推力。
2. 央行实物买盘永久托底
全球央行二季度净购金同比大增 62%，中国央行连续 21 个月增持黄金，属于长线战略配置资金，金价每一轮回调都会迎来央行买盘，杜绝断崖式下跌，给行情足够容错空间。
3. 地缘避险持续加持
中东局势反复摩擦，全球地缘风险常态化，黄金避险、抗通胀双重属性同步激活，随时会有避险资金进场助推金价。
4. 技术面多头结构完好
金价突破 4400 关键压力位，关口由压力转为支撑；日线、4 小时均线全部多头排列，无明确见顶反转信号，仅短期超买需要消化涨幅。
三、阻碍持续上涨的短期风险（最大变量：CPI）
1. 短期严重超买，获利抛压巨大
连续逼空上涨后，短线资金兑现意愿极强，即便基本面偏多，也会出现技术性深度回踩，高位追高极易被套短期回调。
2. 8 月 13 日 CPI 通胀数据是分水岭
若通胀数据反弹，美联储鹰派预期快速回归，美元和美债收益率反弹，金价短期承压回调，直接打断本轮上涨节奏。
3. 长线 ETF 资金并未大规模回流
本轮上涨主要依靠期货空头回补、央行实物买盘，主流黄金 ETF 资金流入有限，缺少长线增量资金持续助推，上涨持续性受限。
四、关键价位参考（现货黄金）
- 短线压力：4450-4480 美元（第一目标密集压力区）
- 短线支撑：4380-4390 美元（日内强弱分水岭）
- 中期多空防守位：4350 美元，有效跌破则短期上涨趋势暂缓
五、实操思路总结
1. 短线交易者：不追 4400 上方多单，等待回踩 4380-4390 支撑低多；若 CPI 通胀反弹、跌破 4350 支撑，规避多头，等待调整结束再布局。
2. 中长期实物投资者：不用追高位分批囤金，等待回踩 4300 下方加大配置，央行购金托底，中长期上涨逻辑不变。[Pharaoh Market Watch]
Pharaoh bluntly said—after earnings season, the approach is becoming clearer: AI infrastructure hasn't stalled; it's just that the baton has shifted from "storytelling" to "accounting." This week's financial reports are the best proof.
Let's start with a few of the toughest ones.
Insight Enterprises' Q2 revenue was 2.4 billion, exceeding expectations by 10.5%, and adjusted earnings per share were $3.86, beating expectations by 31.8%. Management made it clear: strong demand for AI infrastructure hardware, hardware revenue up over 20% year-on-year, cloud business gross profit up 39%, and core service revenue up 21%. AI-ready servers, storage, and network equipment are being rushed by customers to place orders. In a modern IT environment, customers are not just making empty promises—they're taking real action.
Cloudflare's revenue rose 36% year-on-year, with RPO and NRR demand indicators improving simultaneously. AMD's revenue was $11.5 billion, up 50% year-on-year, and its data center business doubled to $6.7 billion, accounting for 58% of total revenue. The competitiveness of the AI computing power market has been sealed. One focuses on network acceleration, the other on AI chips. The simultaneous order explosion across both upstream and downstream shows the entire AI infrastructure chain is in shift.
Caterpillar is even more aggressive. Quarterly revenue broke 20 billion yuan for the first time, up 24% year-on-year, with orders piling up to a record 72.1 billion. Its industrial machinery and electrical equipment divisions have both benefited from AI data center construction, with North American market growth reaching 50%. Excavator makers are starting to be driven by AI development.
But what really shocked the scene was Nvidia's move.
Joining forces with six Wall Street giants—Apollo, BlackRock, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and KKR—the goal is to leverage over 500 billion in third-party capital to help clients borrow money to buy GPUs and build data centers. Jensen Huang personally spoke on the stage, saying: "This is indeed the first time technology chips have become an investable asset class." "Nvidia wants to redefine GPUs from rapidly depreciating hardware into infrastructure assets that generate stable income, like commercial real estate that can be mortgaged."
BlackRock CEO Fink said this could usher in the next future of financial engineering, much like mortgage securitization in the 1970s. Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon also said this is a pivotal moment in a historic AI investment cycle. Jensen Huang also revealed that he personally proposed this financing idea to Wall Street giants.
What did the Pharaoh think?
As earnings season progresses, the AI infrastructure sector has not only remained uninterrupted, but is actually broadening. The results of Insight, Cloudflare, AMD, and Caterpillar prove that AI infrastructure demand is spreading across the board from hardware to services; Nvidia's $500 billion financing plan shows Wall Street is trying to securitize computing power assets. But there are also doubts—Moody's warned that massive capital spending is squeezing free cash flow from tech giants, and some worry that Nvidia's model is 'circular financing,' with chip depreciation risks still lingering.
From storage to computing power to infrastructure financing, AI's story hasn't ended—it's just shifted from the 'picture-perfect stage' to the 'accounting stage.' Pharaoh still says: good deals are waited for, not chased.
Follow Pharaohs, never lose your way to wealth! $BTC $ETH $BICO #财报观察员: AI infrastructure financial reports take the stage one after another 🚨 GOLD’S BIGGEST BUYERS AREN’T RETAIL — THEY’RE CENTRAL BANKS
Gold’s real long-term support may be coming from somewhere most traders overlook: central banks.
While retail traders focus on price action, central banks are building reserves for the next decade.
📊 The numbers matter: • Global central banks bought ~863 tonnes of gold in 2025
• Poland was the biggest buyer for the 2nd consecutive year, adding ~102 tonnes
• 🇺🇸 The U.S. still holds the world’s largest official reserve at ~8,133 tonnes
• 🇨🇳 China continues adding gold to diversify its reserves
• Poland, China, India, Turkey and several Middle Eastern countries remain key buyers
And here’s the bigger story:
Central banks aren’t trying to catch the perfect entry.
They’re buying reserve security.
Gold has no issuer, no default risk and isn’t directly dependent on another country’s balance sheet. After frozen foreign reserves became a real geopolitical risk, that characteristic became far more valuable.
🔥 That creates a major market contradiction:
Gold is near record highs…
Yet central banks are still buying.
That suggests they aren’t simply betting on higher gold prices.
They’re betting on gold’s role in the future global reserve system.
Short term, high prices can still trigger profit-taking — especially if U.S. rates stay elevated and the dollar strengthens.
But long term?
If central banks continue increasing their gold allocation, the market structure itself could keep changing.
The real question isn’t:
“Can gold go higher?”
It’s:
“What happens to gold when more countries decide they need more of it?”
$PAXG $XAUT $XAU It's really giving me goosebumps... And like this again... Who can stand that... If it keeps going up and down, is it really that hard to reach 2000?
1. The red above indicates short liquidation: near 2066, over 1.182 billion in short positions have accumulated and are liquidated. If it surges upward, it will trigger short stop losses and boost the market.
2. Green below indicates long liquidation: near 1794, there are over 577 million orders liquidated. If it drops further, the bulls will be hit in succession.
The current price is 1878, sandwiched between two major liquidation zones. When tomorrow's CPI data comes out, the conditions for a double kill for both bulls and bears are already in place. If it goes up, it takes the bears; if it drops down, it hits the bulls. Both sides have large leveraged positions buried, causing huge volatility.
Can't stand it... Always suppressed by news... There really are a lot of short positions... It's deadly... 🤮 #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for the September rate hike be rewritten? #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession, $ETH $ETH $BTC The return of BTC and ETH ETF inflows is not enough to call a durable turn while both assets are still trading lower on the day. At $64,038, BTC looks more like it is absorbing demand than responding to it, which keeps my near-term bias cautious.
CPI is the cleaner catalyst now. Until it resets Fed expectations, crypto may remain caught between improving structural flows and tighter macro sensitivity. SOL’s relative resilience is notable, but not yet broad confirmation of risk appetite.
Not advice, just analysis.#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a September rate hike be rewritten? $BTC $ETH Last Friday, US nonfarm payroll data was disappointing: employment numbers decreased, and data from the previous two months was revised downward.
The market's first reaction: With the economy weakening, the Fed has no need to continue aggressively raising rates.
So everyone immediately lowered the likelihood of a rate hike in September, and Bitcoin and Ethereum saw a wave of sentiment rebound at the time.
But! Nonfarm payrolls are just the "employment report card"; the Fed is really watching inflation, namely Wednesday's July CPI data, which is the root cause of everyone's current focus.
Currently, the market generally expects overall inflation to slightly decline, core inflation to decline slowly, but service prices remain very sticky and are unlikely to fall quickly.
Currently, expectations for major instruments are highly divided: some platforms believe there is over a 60% chance of no rate hike in September, CME data shows only 55% no rate hike, and nearly 45% probability. There is no consensus on expectations, and the market is in a wait-and-see mode betting on direction.
To sum up the situation in one sentence: Nonfarm payrolls have temporarily breathed a sigh of relief, but before inflation data is released, no one dares to bet heavily. Wednesday's CPI is a short-term watershed.
Divide it into three scenarios and clearly explain what kind of market trend it will bring
1. CPI data falls short of expectations (inflation continues to cool)
The market will directly decide that rate hikes will basically be abandoned in September. With the weakening dollar and risk assets benefiting, BTC and Ethereum are very likely to rally in line with the trend, continuing the previous nonfarm rally driven by nonfarm payrolls.
2. CPI is about the same as expectations—neither high nor low
The market is characterized by wide fluctuations. Neither bulls nor bears have enough reason to launch a major offensive; funds will continue to observe, waiting for Fed officials to respond next. It will be difficult to break out of a one-sided rally, and more insertions will be inserted.
3. CPI exceeds expectations, inflation rebounds
This is a bear bomb. The previous optimism brought by non-farm payrolls was directly overturned, and the market immediately repriced in a September rate hike. With the US dollar rebounding, cryptocurrencies will face pressure and pullback; this recent rally is very likely to mark a temporary end.
My core point
1. Nonfarm payrolls are just the "appetizers"; CPI is the real short-term stabilizer. Worsening employment ≠ inflation will definitely fall. The Fed has repeatedly emphasized: if inflation doesn't come down, even if the economy slows, rate hikes will still be retained. Don't blindly be bullish just because nonfarms worsen.
2. The current rebound in the market is essentially a preemptive gamble against favorable CPI expectations.
Here's an old trading pattern: if positive expectations rise early, if the final data doesn't meet the optimistic expectations, it's easy to see 'buy expectations, sell facts.' Even if the data is neutral, there's still a risk of a spike and pullback.
3. For the crypto market, at this stage, do not heavily position yourself to bet on direction.
Currently, ETF funds can only serve as a bottom-line support and cannot go against macro news to create an independent major rally. The major trend in the crypto world continues to follow dollar liquidity expectations. Before Wednesday's data is released, large funds will remain cautious, with amplified volatility and maximizing uncertainty.【阿衡值班｜8月11日上午盘】
币价普遍回落，但ETF资金并没有同步撤退。
截至北京时间10:58：
BTC约63,966美元，24小时下跌1.71%
ETH约1,876美元，24小时下跌2.40%
SOL约76.03美元，24小时下跌0.96%
全市场总市值约2.19万亿美元，24小时下降1.44%。恐惧与贪婪指数为29，仍处于“恐惧”区间。
再看最新一轮美国现货ETF资金：
BTC ETF净流出9,100万美元
ETH ETF净流入530万美元
SOL ETF净流入880万美元
我的判断：
第一，当前是整体风险偏好偏弱，不是单一币种调整。
第二，BTC机构增量资金暂时减弱，但ETH和SOL仍有小幅流入，说明资金存在局部分化。
第三，这还不能直接定义为“山寨季”。BTC市占率仍有58.7%，山寨季指数只有42，市场主导权仍然在BTC手里。
今天重点观察三个信号：
BTC能否重新站稳64,000美元
ETH和SOL能否继续跑赢BTC
今晚美国ETF资金是否重新回流BTC
如果BTC ETF恢复明显净流入，同时价格收回64,000美元，短期偏弱判断需要修正。
如果ETH和SOL连续获得资金流入，且相对BTC保持强势，资金轮动的可信度才会进一步提高。
现阶段更像“弱势市场中的局部分化”，还不是全面风险偏好回归。
先看资金，再听故事；先写失效条件，再写观点。
本帖仅用于市场研究与信息交流，不构成投资建议。
#BTC #ETH #SOL #ETF #加密行情 #阿衡值班#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场
看了一圈财报，我的感觉是：AI基建的投资逻辑正在从“你敢投我就敢买”切换到“每一块钱的回报在哪”。光讲故事不够了，市场开始算细账。
过去两周，验证这个判断的案例一个接一个。
$SNDK 闪迪交了一份炸裂的成绩单——Q4营收89.7亿美元，同比增372%，毛利率84.6%，全年营收202.5亿，还有939亿美元保底收入和140亿回购。结果呢？财报后两天跌了12%。西部数据同一天营收37.5亿增44%，跌13%。美光跟跌。市场在说：现在能赚钱不够，得证明能赚多久。
SK海力士$SKHYNIX 二季度营收79.32万亿韩元，同比增257%，营业利润暴增557%，HBM4已大规模出货。但营收利润都没达到预期，股价照样承压。
SPCX$SPCX 上市后首份季报，营收78亿增92%，AI收入25.6亿暴增247%。资本开支184亿，其中158亿砸向AI基建。盘后跌5%。烧钱换增长的模式，还能撑几季？
超微上月底的数据其实不差：Q4毛利率从8.2%-8.4%跳升到15%-17%，还披露拿了600亿美元以上新增订单。但过去12个月股价跌了约30%。订单有了，利润呢？
上一轮四大巨头已经给出信号：微软和亚马逊因云业务加速兑现大涨，Alphabet和Meta因自由现金流承压下跌。全年合计资本开支逼近7500亿。
今晚Lumentum、CoreWeave交卷。165倍市盈率、78.6亿净亏损预期——任何闪失都会被放大。AI基建我长期看好，但投资者现在的标准变了。今晚，就是检验这层逻辑的又一块试金石。 Strategy adjusted holdings and increased cash reserves
Strategy has signaled externally that simply hoarding Bitcoin can no longer meet the current demands of institutional funds; the company is adjusting its overall allocation strategy and significantly expanding its cash reserves. Currently, it has stored $4.75 billion in cash, enough to cover 2.7 years of dividend expenses.
The company's previous logic was to heavily hold Bitcoin, promising long-term appreciation and liquidity. However, after the preferred stock product was launched, institutions and short-term hot money valued cash liquidity more and were unwilling to fully endure high price volatility. Companies no longer simply bought coins but began expanding digital lending businesses, launching STRC preferred shares, providing an alternative participation channel for funds wanting to capitalize on Bitcoin returns but fearing large drawdowns. The company stated that such products operate smoothly and can also support Bitcoin's overall layout.
[Afan's Interpretation]
At this stage, it's best to keep your position light and avoid blindly betting on one-sided Dodan. Near 680 above Bitcoin, support below is around 590. Focus on rolling within the range, and avoid heavy positions in a single direction. Traditional crypto institutions are starting to reduce their Bitcoin holdings and increase cash buffers, signaling a subtle shift in external institutional capital. Some institutions are starting to dislike high volatility and will directly reduce incremental spot inflows, which will temporarily suppress Bitcoin's upward momentum. Subsequent trends are more likely to maintain wide volatility and make it difficult to sustain continuous rallies. Incremental buying will shrink, so it's important to lower return expectations. Chasing highs during a volatile market can easily get you stuck. At the same time, keep an eye on future earnings reports from listed US crypto companies, which will become an important indicator of the marketMSTR strategic transformation increases cash reserves, dampens short-term bullish sentiment, and cools expectations for new Bitcoin buyers; In the medium to long term, low-volatility linked products are expected to attract conservative institutional incremental funds while reducing the risk of passive selling during extreme market conditions. The news is short-term bearish and long-term neutral and volatile, insufficient to drive a trend reversal alone; it still requires joint judgment based on Fed liquidity and ETF capital flows. #现货ETF资金分化, BTC selling pressure remains $BTC Strategy sold another 1,690 BTC, and even the former top coin hoarders started to settle scores
BTC bounced back to around $64,000, and the market wasn't very lively, but Strategy did put on a show for the market.
Last week, Strategy sold 1,690 BTC, cashing out about $108.6 million, with an average selling price of $64,262.
Interestingly, it currently holds over 840,000 BTC, with an overall average cost of about $75,385.
In other words, this batch of coins was sold at a price lower than their average cost.
This money is mainly used to buy back preferred shares and replenish US dollar reserves. Strategy still holds a staggering amount of BTC, but the company has clearly begun seriously addressing financing, cash flow, and capital structure.
On the other hand, US BTC and ETH spot ETFs have recently seen another net inflow of about $1.1 billion.
So now a rather interesting scene appears:
Strategy is pouring a bit outward, while ETF funds are receiving a bit below.
A once most aggressive corporate buyer is starting to withdraw, while money from traditional finance is still flowing in.
So the $64,000 position looks quite awkward in the short term.
Moving up, incremental funds are not yet strong enough to carry the sedan all the way;
Downward, ETF buyers did indeed buy in again.
If the CPI hits the market again, risk assets will most likely have to wait for the Fed's stance first.
#Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate financial pools are diverging A golden ladder upward pattern has been established, with a multi-dimensional asset allocation strategy under cryptocurrency linkage
In August 2026, the global gold market will show a stepwise, unilateral bullish structure, with prices fluctuating around the $4,300–$4,400 range, and a clear medium- to long-term trend. Meanwhile, the correlation between the cryptocurrency market (Bitcoin around $64,000–$65,000, Ethereum around $1,850–$1,900) and gold continues to diverge, with Bitcoin being more positioned as a highly resilient risk asset rather than "digital gold." This article combines the latest macro data, changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and technical analysis to deeply analyze the linkage logic between gold and cryptocurrencies, and proposes practical trading strategies and asset allocation recommendations based on risk-return ratios.
1. Gold Market: A Stepwise Upward Bullish Pattern
1.1 Technical Analysis: Three-stage oscillating upward trend
This round of gold rallies has generally followed a typical stepped, one-sided bullish structure. Starting from the low of $3,942 at the end of June 2026, prices have risen in three phases: the first stage rebounded from $3,942 to the $4,200 plateau; the second stage broke through $4,200 and then rallied to around $4,300; the third stage is trading at the high level of the $4,300-$4,400 range. Each pullback has not broken below the previous platform support, with lows continuing to rise and highs constantly being refreshed. The three Bollinger tracks are simultaneously diverging upward, making the medium- to long-term bullish trend very clear.
In terms of track strength, the candlestick runs above the middle Bollinger band throughout, with the middle band continuously supporting the price upward. Each slight pullback touching near the middle band leads to a halt and rebound, making the middle band a dynamic bullish support line. The upper band expands as prices rise, indicating that the bullish upside is continuously opening. Currently, gold prices are near $4,346, up about 8% from the beginning of the year and more than 20% higher than the 2025 low.
1.2 Key Price Levels and Trading Logic
From a technical perspective, the $4380-$4400 range is currently the most critical resistance zone. On August 7, COMEX gold futures briefly touched $4432.3 but then pulled back, indicating historical trapped selling pressure above $4400. In the short term, the psychological level of $4300 is holding, and the bullish pattern remains unbroken. If the price effectively holds above 4400, the current rebound trend will fully open, and the subsequent trend will follow toward 4450-4500 for further extension.
1.3 Macroeconomic Drivers: Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Central Bank Gold Purchases
The core macro driver of this round of gold rally comes from a shift in expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy. U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, far below market expectations. Combined with a sharp downward revision of previous data, the market's probability of a Fed rate hike in September plummeted from 67% to 54.9%. On August 5, the US dollar index fell to 99.70, hitting a six-week low, providing significant support for gold priced in dollars.
Meanwhile, continued gold purchases by global central banks provide long-term bottom support for gold prices. According to data from the World Gold Council, in the second quarter of 2026, global central banks will net purchase 289 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 62%; The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 20 consecutive months. CITIC Securities points out that the area around $4,000/ounce is most likely the bottom area for this round of gold prices.
2. Cryptocurrency Market: Differentiation in Correlation with Gold
2.1 Bitcoin: Positioning as a highly resilient risk asset
In August 2026, Bitcoin's price fluctuated between $62,000 and $65,000. Data from August 10 showed Bitcoin at around $63,910, down about 35% from the high of $97,860 a year earlier. Looking at the weekly chart, Bitcoin is still trading below a downtrend line that has been in place since the October 2025 high (near $126,000), with all four weekly moving averages slanting downward above the price. The 20-week moving average is at $69,445, which is the nearest resistance level.
Notably, Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 index climbed to 0.55 between late 2025 and early 2026, while its correlation with gold remained extremely low for a long time, even turning negative 0.27 in early 2026. This indicates that Bitcoin is now more classified as a highly resilient risk asset in the current market structure, and its binding to the U.S. tech sector is much deeper than its correlation with gold. Gold's recent rally is supported by clear macro logic, while Bitcoin's greater sensitivity to this signal shows that it is currently pricing in not rate cut expectations themselves, but rather risk appetite and actual injection of incremental liquidity.
2.2 Ethereum: Low-level oscillation waiting for a catalyst
Ethereum's current price is about $1,867, down approximately 48% from its all-time high of nearly $5,000 in August 2025. Technically, ETH is trading within a narrow range of $1,800-$2,000, with the 30-day moving average near $1,858, and the price compressed within a cluster of moving averages, forming a typical consolidation pattern.
Ethereum's key support is at the psychological $1800 level; if it falls, it could test the $1760 demand zone; On the upside, breaking through $1890 (14-day moving average) is needed to open space toward $1920-1960. Institutional forecasts show Citigroup setting a target price of $3175 by the end of 2026, while more optimistic analysts like Tom Lee predict a $10,000-12,000 range, provided Glamsterdam upgrades succeed, ETF inflows continue, and macro conditions are supportive.
2.3 ETF Capital Flows: A Barometer of Institutional Sentiment
The flow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs is an important window for observing institutional sentiment. In March 2026, the US Bitcoin spot ETF experienced the longest consecutive weekly net inflow since 2026, totaling about $2 billion over the past four weeks, with BlackRock IBIT attracting about $1.7 billion in a single week. However, after entering August, capital inflows cooled significantly, with the week of July 24 net inflows only $33.79 million, an 83% drop from the July peak.
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #英伟达推动5000亿美元AI基建融资 $BTC $ETH $BICO 这周 CPI 很可能改写 9 月加息定价。
最难受的地方在于，市场现在不是在等一个数字，而是在等联储的脸色。就业数据已经转弱，按理说应该降低加息压力；可油价反弹、服务通胀粘住、长债收益率还高，任何一个 CPI 小幅超预期，都能让“暂停”剧本瞬间变成“再加一次”。
这就是现在宏观交易最烦人的地方：坏消息不一定利好，弱就业也不一定救市场。
如果 CPI 温和，美股和加密会先松口气，大家重新讲流动性；如果 CPI 热一点，市场会马上回到滞胀恐惧：经济变弱，利率却不敢降。
我会把这次 CPI 当成一次情绪开关，而不是趋势答案。真正的趋势，要看通胀、就业和油价能不能同时别添乱。
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Apple's testing of Changxin Memory chips is on the surface supply chain news, but inside it's the iPhone's cost pressure starting to press on the table.
AI has taken away too much DRAM and high-end storage capacity, forcing traditional consumer electronics companies to queue up. For customers of Apple's caliber, they used to pressure suppliers with scale, but now they have to consider more options. If Changxin can enter China's supply chain for selling equipment, even if it's just a preliminary supply, it's a bargaining chip for Apple.
But this card is not easy to play.
Technological gaps, U.S. regulations, entity lists, and customer trust are all stuck in between. Apple wants cheaper, more stable supply; The market sees geopolitical risks and supply chain restructuring.
I think the real signal from this is: AI isn't just making money for Nvidia; it's also rewriting the cost tables for phones, PCs, and cloud vendors. Future price hikes in consumer electronics may not be because of stronger innovation, but because memory is truly insufficient.
#苹果测试长鑫存储芯片并展开初步供货谈判 NVIDIA is no longer just selling chips; it is turning AI computing power into a financial business.
This time, bringing in Wall Street giants like Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo, and Goldman Sachs to mobilize $500 billion in third-party capital essentially signals to the market: AI data centers will no longer be just capital expenditures for tech companies, but will be packaged as assets that can be financed, mortgaged, and sold in layers.
This step is significant and dangerous.
Previously, when customers couldn't afford GPUs, the problem was only on the order side; Now, financial institutions can come in and lend money to customers, encouraging them to continue buying NVIDIA equipment. This sounds like solving a demand bottleneck, but it also raises a very harsh question in the market: Is this real cash flow, or is it the tech version of revolving financing?
As the AI narrative enters its second half, the most expensive thing isn't chips, but who is willing to pay for future earnings first.
#英伟达推动5000亿美元AI基建融资 #苹果测试长鑫存储芯片并展开初步供货谈判
一则产业链消息引发市场关注：苹果正在测试长鑫存储DRAM芯片，评估搭载在iPhone、MacBook设备的可行性，双方已经启动初步供货谈判。
需要明确，现阶段合作依旧停留在测试洽谈阶段，距离正式落地还有很远，同时还要通过美国相关监管审批，暂时不能确定能否顺利导入苹果供应链。
目前苹果DRAM供应商主要为美光、三星、SK海力士。一旦长鑫成功入局，苹果将拥有全新的供应链议价抓手；同时全球DRAM供需格局、存储厂商市场份额都会迎来预期重塑。
另有产业链消息补充：面对苹果压价，长鑫存储态度十分强硬，报价底线对标三星、海力士，不愿低价供货。底气来源不难理解，国内华为、小米早已签下长期产能订单，产能排期甚至延续至2027年底。苹果试图将长鑫作为压价工具的设想，短期很难实现。
后市来看，存储板块行情会持续受这条消息扰动。最终走向核心观察三大关键点：测试进度、苹果潜在采购规模、海外监管审批结果，预期反复之下波动会持续放大。Hyperliquid's RWA perpetual contract trading volume has surpassed BTC.
Tokenized perpetual contracts for crude oil, gold, Nvidia, Tesla, Nasdaq 100, and SpaceX reached a record $3.6 billion in open interest. In the week of mid-July, tokenized stocks and commodities reached $25 billion in trading volume, accounting for 52% of total volume.
What does this mean? Hyperliquid is transforming from a "crypto derivatives exchange" into a "global asset exchange on chain."
Users deposit stablecoins, and then trade not just crypto assets, but assets from all over the world. No need for banks, no brokers, no need for currency exchange.
This is a huge paradigm shift. Previously, we said "on-chain trading" meant buying and selling tokens. Now, "on-chain trading" is turning into buying and selling everything.
But there is a risk: where does the pricing power of these RWA perpetual contracts lie? If pricing references CEXs or traditional markets, then Hyperliquid is just a "channel." The real pricing power is not on-chain, but Wall Street. BTC跌破64000美元关键关口，短期空头占据主导
8月11日，比特币价格跌破64000美元关键支撑位，截至发稿报64055美元，24小时跌幅1.73%。昨晚BTC一度反弹至65400美元附近，但未能站稳便快速回落至63800美元一线。65000美元上方卖压沉重，多头反弹动能明显不足。
多重利空共振，下行风险加剧：
一、巨鲸持续抛售。链上数据显示，一只匿名巨鲸在过去三周内累计卖出7513枚BTC，套现约4.869亿美元。另一巨鲸再度卖出1019枚BTC，套现约6640万美元。
二、机构减持施压。比特币财库公司Strategy以均价64262美元出售1690枚BTC，套现1.086亿美元。其持仓平均成本高达75385美元，当前浮亏明显。
三、抛压来源集中。分析师指出，当前下跌主要由Binance和OKX现货市场净卖出推动，净卖出规模仍在持续扩大。
四、宏观面承压。美伊霍尔木兹海峡谈判陷入僵局，油价单日涨超5%。通胀担忧重燃，市场对美联储加息预期升温。今日美国CPI数据即将公布，若超预期，降息预期将进一步降温。
资深交易员Peter Brandt直言：“如果必须下注，我会押注下跌。”他认为比特币在4月至6月形成的大型头肩顶形态，下行目标指向约58000美元。
短期来看，64000美元一旦确认失守，下一目标看62000-63000美元区间。在CPI数据和宏观不确定性落地前，空头情绪仍将占据上风。#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 NVIDIA @nvidia announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, KKR, and others to raise $500 billion to build an AI computing infrastructure financing platform.
Huang also stated: at most a 25% safety net, that is, $125 billion.
To translate:
It's about lending money to customers to buy their own NVIDIA cards. This AI phase has evolved from "buying cards with profits" to "borrowing money to buy cards."
Is this this kind of strategy called supplier financing? It was played out in 2000? 🫡Bitcoin, Ethereum & Solana: 3 Chains. 3 Different Futures.
Crypto isn’t moving toward a single winner.
$BTC , $ETH and $SOL are building three very different paths toward mainstream adoption.
₿ Bitcoin — Digital Gold
Bitcoin’s biggest advantage is simple: scarcity.
With a fixed supply of 21 million BTC, Bitcoin is increasingly being positioned as a long-term store of value rather than simply another speculative asset.
Institutional adoption is strengthening this narrative.
BTC = Scarcity + Store of Value + Digital Money
⟠ Ethereum — The Financial Layer
Ethereum is building the programmable side of crypto.
DeFi, stablecoins, tokenized assets, NFTs and countless other applications are being built around its ecosystem.
Its Layer-2 network is also expanding Ethereum’s ability to support a much larger on-chain economy.
ETH = Smart Contracts + DeFi + Financial Infrastructure
◎ Solana — Speed & Mass Adoption
Solana is taking a different approach.
Fast transactions and low fees make it ideal for high-volume applications, trading, payments, DeFi and consumer-focused products.
The bigger opportunity could be stablecoins, payments, tokenization and applications designed for mainstream users.
SOL = Speed + Scale + Consumer Adoption
3 Networks. 3 Different Roles.
Bitcoin doesn’t need to become Ethereum.
Ethereum doesn’t need to become Solana.
Solana doesn’t need to replace Bitcoin.
They can each dominate different parts of the digital economy:
₿ BTC → Store of Value
⟠ ETH → Financial Infrastructure
◎ SOL → Applications & Payments
The next phase of crypto adoption may be driven less by hype and more by real utility.
The real question isn’t:
“Which one wins?”
It’s:
“What role will each one play in the future of the global digital economy?”$ICP 现价$2.385，一根大阳线拉起来，全网吹 AI 公链起飞。
但热度之下有两个现实隐患要重视。
隐患一：头顶厚重套牢盘
上方 $2.40 就近承压，2.48‑2.50 是前期下跌中继筹码重灾区，堆积大量中长期套牢筹码。
反弹到这个区间，大批被套用户会选择解套卖出；缩量状态下往上冲，等于去当解放军。
不是完全不能突破，但必须放量实体站稳，才扛得住抛压。
隐患二：故事很美，数据兑现还很远
Caffeine AI 对话部署应用、Mission70 通胀改革，都是市场炒作催化剂。
但 Mission70 重点是压低未来新增代币通胀，不是销毁历史存量。
现阶段链上销毁规模很小，距离真正通缩还有很大距离。
题材可以拉出大阳线，但行情想要持续，需要生态使用、销毁数据真实兑现，目前还没看到。
我的观点：
短线：不追这根大阳线。观察$2.40，重点盯$2.48‑2.50 阻力。缩量冲不过，容易回落；放量实体站稳，上方空间才打开。
稳健：不博弈故事，等回踩关键支撑出现企稳信号再考虑。
提醒：热点叙事驱动的反弹，不要把预期打满，故事没落地之前，冲高很容易回落。
题材币波动剧烈，快进快出是底线。
个人盘面观点分析与市场信息整理，非投资建议。
$BTC $ETH
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在
#英伟达推动5000亿美元AI基建融资 Many people studying Bitcoin focus on halvings, ETFs, and institutional buying.
But there is an even more important factor:
There is not much money in the global market.
Recent crypto bull markets share a common trait:
Market liquidity has become looser.
When the Fed cuts rates and dollar supply increases, funds in the market will look for higher-yielding assets.
At this time, tech stocks, cryptocurrencies, and risk assets tend to rise more easily.
Conversely, if the Fed maintains high interest rates, the dollar becomes more expensive, and funds flow back into low-risk assets, Bitcoin and high-valuation assets will come under pressure.
Therefore, Bitcoin is not a completely independent market.
It has strong correlations with the Nasdaq, U.S. Treasury yields, and the US dollar index.
Many people ask:
"Why is Bitcoin not rising despite this positive news?"
The reason may be simple:
What the market lacks is not stories, but capital.
In the next market cycle, what will truly determine the upside potential may not be how many people believe in Bitcoin, but how much global capital is willing to re-enter risk assets $BTC $ETH 未来24—48小时还是偏空，但不会在这里追空。
现在更需要防的，是先把多单清一遍，再等CPI给出下一步方向。
宏观信号有点拧巴。
油价重新走高，美元和美债收益率都在抬头；但美国就业数据偏弱，加息预期又在降。8月12日的CPI，很可能就是这轮短线行情的开关。
政策面上，CLARITY Act只是排上了9月的程序性投票，还没真正通过，短线先别急着当利好交易。
盘面上，$ETH 还是比$BTC 脆弱。
我的确认条件很简单：
$BTC 跌破63300，反抽站不回；
或者$ETH 跌破1850，重新收不回来。
出现这种走势，空头才算真正接管。
反过来，$BTC 重新站稳65500、$ETH 站稳1940，这套短空逻辑就该放弃。
当前位置已经靠近支撑。
看空可以，别在支撑位上追空。英特尔官宣150亿美元普通股增发，叠加22.5亿美元绿鞋超额配售，全额落地后股权稀释约3%，美国政府等存量股东权益同步摊薄，消息公布后股价盘中大跌超4%，短期资金担忧稀释压力。
本次融资核心动因是AI代工扩产的巨额资金缺口，公司2026年资本开支上调至200亿美元以上，重点投向18A、14A先进制程工厂与先进封装产线。管理层明确仅在锁定客户订单后加码产能，规避盲目扩产风险，募资资金用于厂房建设、设备采购，同时优化资产负债表，维持投资级信用评级。
短期利空逻辑清晰：年内股价涨幅170%处于高位，增发折价发行直接摊薄每股收益，筹码供给增加压制估值；但机构超额认购超千亿，侧面印证市场看好其代工转型，特斯拉、苹果等客户落地打开长期增长空间。
中长期存在修复逻辑：资金到位后加速算力产能释放，绑定AI产业链需求，代工业务亏损持续收窄将对冲稀释负面影响。跨市场层面，芯片资本开支扩张利好存储、设备产业链；美债利率易随企业资本开支上行，短期压制黄金、BTC等无息资产。
风险提示：以上仅为行情思路分析，不构成任何投资操作建议，无不良引导，请遵守社区公约。$BTC $ETH $SNDK #英伟达推动5000亿美元AI基建融资 $BEAT ：目前还有 4 亿多美金的市值，参照 LAB 后期走势，从几十亿上百亿美金市值，最终一直阴跌到几千万美金左右市值盘整，BEAT 的下跌空间，理论上还有 9 ～10 倍左右 特朗普这嘴炮打法又来了：你封锁海峡，我也封锁；你要收费，我也要收费；现在你要赔偿，那我也要赔偿。
伊朗把赔偿、解除制裁等作为霍尔木兹全面开放的条件，特朗普直接反手要求伊朗赔偿。双方从“怎么恢复通航”，逐渐谈成了“到底谁赔谁”，油价也率先反应，WTI、Brent一度双双大涨约5%，Brent逼近88美元。
真正麻烦的是后面的传导：霍尔木兹不开→原油上涨→通胀压力回升→美联储更难停手。 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克甚至表示，可能需要多次加息才能把通胀压回2%。
这波油价对即将公布的7月CPI影响有限，但如果持续高位，会逐渐反映到后续通胀。
非农刚给加息踩下刹车，美伊又通过油价把油门踩了回去。
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #英伟达推动5000亿美元AI基建融资 #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #