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妈的亏了820U，多单还套在65347，这波$BTC横盘整得我心态要崩了炸了！ 昨晚$BTC冲到65180，我盯着屏幕心跳加速，以为要解套了，结果今天又回落到64776，还差570U才回本。19倍杠杆的多单，每跳一个点心就颤一下。 你说这狗庄是不是盯着我账户操作？$BTC 24小时涨幅0.79%，成交量244.08M USDT，但成交量较前24小时萎缩了38.70%。 市场在63904到65180之间窄幅震荡，多空都在试探，谁也不愿先动手。这横盘比暴跌还磨人，至少暴跌你还能止损，横盘就是温水煮青蛙。 📊 技术面：布林带收口，暴风雨前的死寂布林带收口到1.63%，上轨65200，下轨64146，价格在中轨64673附近晃悠。 布林带收口必放大这话说了十年了，问题是不知道什么时候放大——现在就是暴风雨前的死寂。 MACD绿柱还在缩，但DIF线149.6还低于DEA线166.5，空头动能没彻底死透。 资金费率+0.01%不算高，持仓量20亿U纹丝不动，说明大资金在观望，没人敢先砸盘也不敢猛拉。你看这个成交量萎缩38.70%，这数据很有意思。 缩量横盘通常意味着市场在积累能量，但方向不明确。Bitcoin ETF returns to positive cash flow
💰 The Spot BTC ETF has just recorded about $32 million in inflows, ending a streak of 4 net drawdown sessions!
After more than $500 million in consecutive outflows, institutional cash flows have returned even though the BTC price is still around $64k. IBIT continues to lead. Meanwhile, ETH ETF is still under slight drawdown pressure.
Traders who look at this number will not be in a hurry to rejoice. Inflow is small compared to the old peak, but the important thing is timing: it comes at a time when the market is testing sentiment after the FOMC. ETF trading volume is stable, not pure short-term waves.
Private Insights: The market is shifting from "selling on bad news" to "buying on fear". If cash flow remains above $30-50 million for a few more sessions, institutional demand will begin to weigh on retail supply.
Which side wins: Will inflow push BTC to $67k fast, or just enough to hold the current range?📊 Market Overview: The Key Test After the W Bottom Breakout
$UNI Recently, a technical breakout was completed—after bottoming out at 3.413 on July 20, a double bottom formed around 3.70-3.80, and then surged up to the current range. MA5 (4.170)> MA10 (4.057)> MA30 (3.896), with moving averages consolidating in the bulls. However, on-chain and derivatives data have sent contradictory signals.
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🔒 Support Level (Bullish Defense)
· First support range: 4.17 - 4.20. The MA5 moving average's position is also the key support area converted after the previous downtrend line breakout. Holding this level will keep the bullish structure intact.
· Core support levels: 4.05 - 4.057. The MA10 moving average is here; if it falls below it, it will signal the first short-term weakness.
· Ultimate defense: 3.89 - 3.90. The MA30 moving average and the middle band of the Bollinger Band area. Once the volume breaks through, it means the trend may reverse.
🚀 Pressure Level (Bear Fortress)
· First resistance level: 4.477. The 24-hour high, the current peak of recent rallies.
· Core resistance zone: 4.58 - 4.60. The next technical target level requires a significant increase in trading volume to support this breakthrough.
· Mid-term ceiling: 5.05. The next key upper position discussed in the market. The January target of 5.35 predicted in December 2025 has yet to be reached, indicating sustained selling pressure above 4.
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🐋 On-chain market players and whale movements
· Market maker Cumberland makes a big purchase: On-chain data shows that Cumberland concentrated buying about 1.62 million UNI (about $6.77 million) within a few hours, with an average cost of about $4.17. Subsequently, over 1.22 million of these coins were transferred to a non-exchange wallet linked to Monetalis, which currently holds about 3.35 million UNI, valued at over $14.4 million. Transferring large tokens to non-exchange wallets is often interpreted as a medium- to long-term holding intention.
· a16z remains the largest holder: According to Rootdata, a16z Crypto's largest position remains UNI tokens, about 44 million tokens (worth over $570 million), distributed across multiple addresses. Due to its excessive holding of UNI, a16z has repeatedly been embroiled in Uniswap proposal governance controversies.
· Whales are generally accumulating: As the UNIfication proposal (activation fees and UNI burning) advances, whales have started accumulating UNI. In the first half of 2026, some addresses withdrew about $22.5 million of UNI circulating supply, and whales' continued accumulation led to a steady reduction in circulating supply.
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📈 Positive factors (fundamental support)
· Deflationary mechanisms are fully accelerating: The UNIfication proposal has activated the protocol fee switch, and fees generated from the v2 and v3 pools will be used to buy and burn UNI. The proposal also includes retrospective destruction of 100 million UNI tokens (approximately $940 million). Since the end of 2025, the fee switch has burned over 106 million UNI tokens (>10% supply). Over the past week, the burn rate tripled from $51,000 to over $160,000.
· Robinhood Chain Integration Implemented: Uniswap was adopted as the native AMM for Robinhood's new Layer 2 blockchain. More than 430 tokenized stocks are being routed through Uniswap. Robinhood Chain's trading volume over the past 10 days has surpassed $6 billion.
· New governance proposal expands burn scope: Uniswap initiates a new vote, proposing to include v4 trading pool fees and Robinhood Chain cross-chain transaction fees in buyback and burn scope. The three proposals cover multiple chains, including Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum, Robinhood, BNB Chain, Polygon, and Optimism.
📉 Bearish Factors (Potential Risks)
· Liquidity providers (LPs) strongly oppose: Major LPs like Gamma Strategies oppose the launch of V4 fees, arguing that V4's trading volume still lags behind V3 and faces fierce competition from spot limit order book DEXs like Hyperliquid. Since 2018, LPs have earned over $5 billion in fees, while protocols have only received $25 million—the new proposal essentially shifts value from LPs to UNI holders.
· The hidden selling pressure behind "full circulation on paper": Although UNI has been fully unlocked and has a 100% circulation rate (1 billion tokens), the community treasury and the team/investors/advisors have only sold 88.37 million tokens. The vast majority of unlocked tokens have not yet been sold, with actual circulation of only about 258.3 million tokens (25.83%). This means that over 740 million potential selling pressure could be released at any moment.
· Upward momentum questionable: Despite price increases, CT (Crypto Twitter) has seen almost no meaningful UNI analysis in the past 24 hours. The rally was driven entirely by technical factors and capital flows, not by fundamentals or narrative logic.
· Technical overbought signal: The stochastic indicator %K is 85.52, already in the overbought range. The MACD histogram has been compressed to zero, and bullish momentum has stalled. Open interest continues to decline, and once the short squeeze ends, there is a lack of new buying support.
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💎 Summary
$UNI It is at a crossroads between the "strongest fundamentals period" and "short-term momentum exhaustion." Cumberland built large positions at a cost of $4.17 and moved into cold wallets, whales like a16z continue to hold positions, deflationary mechanisms are burning faster—long-term logic solid. $UNI #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% after hours. #财报观察员: Microsoft cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is weak—Is the AI story diverging? 苹果公司发布了截至六月底的2026财年第三财季业绩报告。这份报告本应是现任CEO蒂姆·库克卸任前的“荣耀总结”，但市场却给出了颇为残酷的回应，股价在盘后交易中一度重挫超过4%。 从核心财务数据来看，苹果这次的表现并不差。总营收达到1094亿美元，不仅超出了华尔街分析师此前的预期，同比16%的增长率也显示出这家科技巨头依然保有强大的吸金能力。iPhone业务作为基本盘依然稳固，而Mac电脑的销售也交出了超预期的答卷，成为本季度的两大亮点。 然而，光鲜的账面数字难掩背后的隐忧，正是这些不确定性让投资者选择“用脚投票”。$SKHYNIX 第一重隐忧在于未来指引的“降温”。 苹果对第四财季的收入指引低于市场预期，给出的理由是“内存短缺”带来的供应链限制。这意味着，即便需求旺盛，产品供货也可能跟不上，从而抑制下一季度的业绩表现。 第二重隐忧更为关键，增长引擎“失速”。 被视为苹果未来最重要增长极的大中华区业务和服务业务，本次表现双双不及预期。大中华区的营收数据未能达到分析师的模型预测，再次引发市场对苹果在中国市场竞争力的担忧；而服务业务作为苹果向“软件驱动”转型的核心，其增速放缓也让长期投资者$SLX Excellent. Looking at the comment section and the 2.27 million leading trading holders, then looking at Bian's contract data, the OKX bottom-fishing crowd is very authentic. I feel it's hard to say if it will rise in the short term, but if it will still wash down, that's certain. Good luck to everyone.
To elaborate, the BIAN contract only has 49 million coins, while OKE has 36.7 million coins. By the way, here's a reference: OKE is 65% higher than BIAN. You need to weigh the numbers to see if they're correct, hahaha. Keep resisting.#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion
Relevant: Cliff diving! Will Bitcoin completely break free from the NASDAQ? The standalone rally is just a short-term illusion
In 2026, the market shows significant divergence signals, with Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq-100 index cooling sharply. Data shows that the 40-day rolling correlation coefficients of the two have rapidly fallen from nearly synchronized at 0.96 in April to near zero. During the Nasdaq's sustained rally, Bitcoin remains range-bound, with many investors calling for crypto assets to break out of independent rallies. However, institutions generally warn that this round of decoupling is more of a temporary illusion, and the long-term binding logic has not collapsed.
There are multiple surface reasons for the decline in short-term correlation. First, capital divergence in the track, with hot money flowing into the AI technology sector, and the Nasdaq emerging from an independent bull market relying on computing power company earnings; Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net outflows, institutional funds are withdrawing from the crypto market, and the two asset pools are completely separated. Second, the internal cycle of the crypto market dominates the market. Halving cycle pullbacks, capital rotation in new on-chain tracks, and regulatory news from various countries have repeatedly disturbed the market. Token prices are more driven by industry events, weakening the transmission of volatility from US stocks. Third, market pricing expectations diverge. In a high interest rate environment, tech stocks benefit from AI profits, while Bitcoin's interest-free nature comes under pressure. The pricing logic for bulls and bears diverges, leading to a reversal and fluctuating trend.
But this does not mean Bitcoin has completely decoupled. From the underlying logic, both are essentially liquidity-sensitive risk assets, highly tied to global dollar liquidity over the long term. Institutional data shows that Bitcoin's correlation to global liquidity reaches 87%, the Nasdaq as high as 97%, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields remain the core variables influencing the major trends of these two asset groups. Once extreme liquidity shocks occur, such as unexpected interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve or global funds collectively hedging risks, the synchronized rise and fall of stocks and cryptocurrencies will immediately return.
Historical data also confirms that correlations are highly resilient. There will be multiple short-term decoupling events in 2025 and 2026, but quarterly and annual dimensional linkages have consistently remained high. The current divergence is only a short-term phenomenon caused by phased capital repositioning, not a structural shift. For traders, one should not blindly assume that Bitcoin will break out of its standalone market. Macro liquidity remains a core variable that cannot be ignored, and it can only short-term reduce the impact of Nasdaq fluctuations on coin prices, making it difficult to completely sever the medium- to long-term linkage
$BTC $SATS Margin contracts are basically liquidated, right? Since its launch, Sats has been falling continuously. Based on some nationality-specific mindsets, they have been betting on rebounds and rises during the decline, but the decline is just a decline, with support levels broken one by one during the decline. No altcoin has ever been as recognizable and popular as SATS. If SATS is set to delist for its historical mission, then this coin is truly special. SATS has sold massive amounts on exchanges, but there are still a large amount of coins in cold wallets, held by individuals, and also on different exchanges. Can't buy out! Sales never stop; everything is a pre-scripted script. The probability of this coin being delisted is much higher than the probability of "power intervention and violent reshuffling." When SATS is delisted, is it equivalent to USDT 1:1 exchange, or is it a high withdrawal fee? We'll see when the time comes. At the same time, here's the most straightforward data: since SATS was launched, spot trading on OKX alone has reached 10.5 billion USDT, and contract trading has reached 55 billion USDT. The second largest wallet on SATS accounts for less than 20%. How much have other exchanges traded? And will only increase? This does not include strategy trading and similar items. In other words, the transaction fees for a large amount of a single coin already cover the total value of the coin. Exchanges do not allocate the trading fees they earn to users or research sustainable development. On one hand, they feed a group of KLOs to keep profits from trading fees to keep recruiting people to replenish their pools; on the other, they issue massive amounts of new coins to crazily drive prices up to stimulate trading desire, under the guise of "community building," with Da Shayi being especially evident. When the speed of recruiting people can't keep up with the rate at which crypto pools are diluting, the value of crypto collapses dramatically, and 1011 is the inevitable outcome. After 1011, it's not that the over-issuance scheme can't continue, but that some exchanges have smashed all their trading posts just to protect themselves! Since 1011, meme coins have "gone viral smoothly due to the Hacker 4 incident," and the introduction of meme coins serves as a buffer pool to ensure the stability of the exchange's "token" value, since the "token" market cap is already in the hundreds of billions of USDT (this deserves praise from OKX, whose meme coins have never been very popular). In short, exchanges are fighting to protect their own territories. Everyone understands that besides Bitcoin, there is also some value with liquidity; junk coins and meme coins are all meant to strengthen their respective token moats. How can we break the deadlock? That is, in the eyes of "Wall Street," the price linkage mechanisms of various exchanges are just a piece of lucrative meat. Is the reason they aren't eating now because the exchanges are still laying eggs? Is the reason "power" not working is because they don't lack the money of the crypto world? I have high hopes for India and South Korea.An epic counterattack! South Korea's KOSPI surged over 15%, and the Nikkei broke through 65,000 points
Play
Tracking global stock market trends 2026-07-31 08:57
On Friday, Korean stocks surged over 15% intraday, marking the largest single-day intraday gain in history; The Nikkei 225 broke through 65,000 points. SK Group Chairman increased his stake in SK Hynix, and the South Korean government's 20 trillion KRW AI investment plan further boosted market confidence; The simultaneous strengthening of the Korean won and yen has also sparked speculation about joint intervention by Japan and South Korea.
Asian stock markets rose on Friday after chip stocks rebounded and restored confidence in the AI industry.
After the opening, South Korea's stock index surged, with the KOSPI index surging over 15% intraday, reaching 6,463 points as of press time, marking the largest single-day intraday gain in history. The Korea Exchange activated a sidecar mechanism for KOSPI, pausing programmatic trading for 5 minutes. In the previous three trading days, the benchmark index had plunged 17% cumulatively, due to market concerns over rising debt levels at the world's largest tech companies and competitive threats from competitors.
SK Hynix surged as much as 28% intraday on Thursday, partly thanks to SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won's rare direct purchase of the company's shares; Another memory chip giant, Samsung Electronics, rose 26%.
The Japanese stock market rose simultaneously, with the Nikkei 225 index breaking above 65,000 points, rising more than 5% intraday. Japanese stocks SoftBank Group shares rose 14%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed for the second consecutive day.
It is worth mentioning that amid the sharp rebound in Japanese and Korean stock markets, traders also suspected that Japan and South Korea had jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market.
Market sources revealed that South Korea's foreign exchange authorities implemented a rare dollar sell-off intervention on Thursday, pushing the won to a nine-month high. South Korea's move coincided with Japan's intervention on Thursday in the New York market by buying yen and selling the dollar, which pulled the yen back from a forty-year low.
The Korean won appreciated 2% against the US dollar on Thursday, reaching 1,418.0 won per dollar, marking its strongest level since October 20 last year. Last month, the Korean won hit a 17-year low of 1561.50, but this month it has risen more than 8%, potentially marking its largest single-month gain since March 2009. A foreign exchange official at South Korea's Ministry of Finance declined to confirm the intervention. A South Korean forex trader said the market suspects joint intervention by South Korea and Japan, as the two countries had previously stated they would coordinate closely.
South Korea's Deputy Finance Minister recently stated that it is closely coordinating with major countries such as the United States and Japan in the foreign exchange market. Japan's highest foreign exchange official, Jun Mimura, recently stated that he has received support from the U.S. that he has received support beyond spiritual level, and that the focus of maintaining foreign exchange contact is not limited to the U.S. alone.
Thursday's rally on Wall Street gave tech stocks a breathing room. This year's AI-driven rally has become increasingly volatile since the launch of leveraged products in May.
"Recently, the AI technology sector, driven by deleveraging, derisking, closing out, and other liquidity factors, has accelerated sell-offs and may be stabilizing," said Shawn Oh, head of Korean spot equities at NH Investment & Securities.
Investors find comfort in Choi Tae-won's actions. The chairman of SK Group purchased 3,620 shares of SK Hynix on the open market, marking his first direct personal investment in the chipmaker. This approximately 4.8 billion KRW (approximately $3.2 million) purchase was widely interpreted as a vote of confidence in the company's long-term prospects after a sharp drop in its stock price. In the previous three trading days, SK Hynix's stock price on the Korea Exchange had plummeted by 27%.
Additionally, the South Korean government plans to inject 20 trillion won (about $13.9 billion) into its sovereign wealth fund for strategic investments in artificial intelligence, data centers, and infrastructure. This is the fund's first authorized investment in domestic assets, and as the decision was made, the technology sector of the Korean stock market has just experienced a round of intense turmoil.
According to a statement released on Friday, the government will set up a dedicated account within the Korea Investment Corporation, with an initial scale of at least 20 trillion won, funded by equity contributions from policy banks and other public institutions.
Although the statement did not directly link the government's plan to the current market turmoil, it came at a time after the sharp decline in the Korean stock market this week, and prior to that, the government had introduced a series of recent measures to stabilize the market.
The South Korean government stated that South Korea has core competitive advantages in building an AI ecosystem, and global investment interest in South Korea is growing; this decision is driven by the need for "proactive action."
The South Korean government pointed out the need for anchored investors to attract global capital from foreign sovereign wealth funds and asset management companies. The new account will be authorized to invest in local assets, breaking away from its traditional overseas asset portfolio.
The government added that the new account will support the development of strategic industries, generate returns for future generations, and serve as a buffer for national economic security, foreign exchange, and asset markets.
The KOSPI index has plunged 34% in July, and if it fails to close sharply on Friday, it will set a record for the worst monthly performance in history. Investor concerns about large-scale capital expenditures by South Korea's two major chip giants are deepening, market sentiment remains fragile, and investors are watching to see how effective the government can be in curbing leverage and volatility.The Crypto Carnival Has Moved to the Graveyard
Retail is fixated on $DOGE's 10% bounce, oblivious to the carnage unfolding beneath. $STRK's 10% implosion serves as a harbinger, but no one's paying attention to the telltale signs of life support.
$BNB's +3.42% surge looks suspiciously like a liquidity pump from the same pockets that artificially inflated $ASTER's 2.01% gain. Meanwhile, $ENAs 3.45% explosion has all the makings of a high-pressure wash trade. The real story lies in the lackluster volumes on these pump-and-dumps. People are buying the narrative, not the assets themselves.
$BTC's +1.20% tick is a farce, masking the silent sell-off by the whales. The true market leader is quietly fading every bounce, forcing retail to chase a mirage. You're not buying the dip; you're buying the hype.
Red dot.📊 Market Overview: A Breathing Struggle After a Crash
$CAP After reaching a historical high on June 26, the price plummeted, with a maximum drawdown of 57.7% and the lowest point on July 12. Currently, after a sharp drop, the price has entered a weak rebound phase, but overall remains within a downward channel.
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🔒 Support Level (Bullish Defense)
· First support range: 0.031 - 0.032. This is the lower boundary of a recently traded area, with buy orders having the upper hand depth (Bid/Ask=1.30), indicating some capital support intentions.
· Core support levels: 0.028 - 0.030. If the initial rebound breaks through this range with increased volume, further downside space will be opened.
· Ultimate defense: 0.015 - 0.016. This is the historical lowest area, and once touched, it means the trend has completely collapsed.
🚀 Pressure Level (Bear Fortress)
· Short-term resistance: 0.035 - 0.036. The upper Bollinger Band is within reach, with the 1-hour RSI at 73.84 and the 4-hour RSI at 77.13, both entering overbought territory.
· Core resistance zone: 0.042 - 0.043. At the historical high area, a large number of trapped units have accumulated, making a direct breakout almost impossible in the short term.
· Mid-term ceiling: 0.050. If the psychological barrier between previous and rear high is broken, strong fundamental catalysts are needed.
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🐋 On-chain market players and whale movements
· Tokens are highly concentrated: $CAP total supply is 10 billion tokens, with initial circulation accounting for only 15.6%. The top 100 addresses together hold as much as 99.40% of the position—this is extreme token concentration, with a handful of addresses holding absolute pricing power.
· Clear signs of whale escape: on July 11, CAP surged after Coinbase went live, but was immediately hit by an 11.4% single-day sell-off. This "sell off immediately after launch" model typically reflects early investors/market makers' profit-taking.
· Institutional-level Sell-Off Record: CAP Finance previously sold 1 million ARB on-chain in one go, exchanging 579,000 USDC and 311.3 ETH. The institution still holds 1.95 million ARB (about $2.3 million) — this scale of operation indicates that professional-grade funds are systematically reducing their holdings.
· Market maker control signals: 0.6% of initial circulation is allocated to market makers. Recently, prices have been repeatedly fluctuating around 0.034, with buy queues clearly thicker than sell orders. It is possible that market makers are holding prices to support distribution.
📈 Positive factors
· Franklin Templeton endorsement: Cap is a stablecoin protocol backed by Franklin Templeton, backed by traditional financial giants with scarce credit endorsements.
· Real business support: The protocol has a total locked value of about $230 million and has provided Susquehanna Crypto with a $100 million revolving credit line—this is not Aircoin, but has real business and cash flow.
· Founder takes responsibility: Regarding the controversy over Stabledrop airdrop shrinking from 11 million to 4.2 million, founder Benjamin publicly apologized and switched to a "fully capital-guaranteed" plan. In the short term, trust was damaged, but in the long run, it prevented a more severe community collapse.
· Listed on leading exchanges: Listed on mainstream exchanges such as Bybit, KuCoin, Coinbase, LBank, and others, with relatively complete liquidity infrastructure.
📉 Bearish factors
· 84.4% of tokens remain unlocked: initial circulation is only 15.6%. Private investors, teams, and Echo community sales only unlock 12 months after TGE; 25% is unlocked on the first anniversary of TGE, then vested linearly monthly over 3 years—a massive unlocked token is a long-term sword hanging overhead.
· The trust crisis has yet to subside: The Stabledrop shrinkage from 11 million to 4.2 million has severely damaged community trust. The team made premature commitments before funding was disbursed, exposing governance and transparency issues.
· Technically bearish overall: The daily chart shows consecutive lower highs and lower lows. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI have entered the overbought zone, and the rebound could end abruptly at any time.
· High Beta + Low Liquidity: Market cap of only about $34 million, small size means any large trade can trigger sharp volatility. In an environment of unstable macro sentiment, CAP declines tend to be much more pronounced than upward gains.
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💎 Summary
$CAP It is currently in a state of tear between "top-tier institutional endorsement + genuine business" and "extreme chip concentration + massive ununlocked assets + trust crisis." The top 100 addresses control over 99% of the supply, indicating that the willingness of market makers is far more important than fundamentals. Although there was a technical rebound after a recent plunge of 57% from the historical high, both the 1H and 4H RSI were overbought, limiting the momentum of the rebound. 0.035-0.036 is the immediate life-or-death line—a breakout could lead to a recovery toward 0.042, while resistance could lead to a second dip to 0.028 or even 0.015. 84% of unlocked tokens and Stabledrop trust trauma are long-term suppressive factors. At this moment, waiting and waiting is wiser than bottom-fishing—wait until volume increases and the price stabilizes above 0.036 before acting. #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes a new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading. #财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? After Hynix's financial report, it invested $31 million to go long, with the whale's unrealized profit reaching $6.44 million
According to Jinse Finance, on July 31, according to Lookonchain monitoring, after Hynix reported its earnings, it invested $31 million to go long on whales, with unrealized gains reaching $6.44 million. After SK Hynix released its earnings report, the whale had heavily invested $31 million to go long, at one point incurring a floating loss of $3.13 million, with an entry price of $981.59, and SKHX hitting a low of $897.43 during this period. #海力士 Micron rose 1.65% today, reaching 917, with an intraday low of 716 and a high of 931. It rebounded from the low of 706, rising over $200 in three days, an increase of more than 30%.
(1) Data
Micron is currently at $917.15, up 1.65% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of 71.658 and a high of 931.04, and a turnover of 959 million. On the 7th, the decline narrowed to -3.11%, and on the 30th, it still fell -12.85%. SUPERTREND shows support near 882.33, with the price already above the WMA 5/10/20 moving averages. During the session, it rose from 716 all the way to 931, then pulled back to close at 917, with the daily chart closing with a bullish upper shadow.
(2) Why is it rising?
Micron is following the entire storage segment. SanDisk rose 47% in two days, SK Hynix jumped from 900 to 1,174, and Micron jumped from 706 to 917, all up more than 30%. Microsoft's earnings report has reversed the AI narrative, and the storage sector is experiencing a violent rebound. Micron was previously sold off due to concerns over storage demand and Changxin's supply worries after listing, but Microsoft's earnings report proved that AI demand has not slowed, and the market is repricing long-term AI infrastructure demand.
(3) Key locations
Resistance: 930-950; a breakout will open up space above, looking toward 1000. Support: 880-900. If the pullback confirms this, it is a potential entry point for bulls. 706 is the bottom of this round; if it falls below it again, the bearish structure will once again dominate.
(4) My judgment
Micron jumped from 706 to 917, rising 30% in three days, following the valuation recovery trend of the entire storage sector. However, the intraday rally and pullback trend indicates that short-term selling pressure is increasing, and profit-taking orders have started to be unloaded. If Micron can hold above 900, this rebound may still have room to continue. If it falls below 880, it means this is just an oversold rebound.
900 is a watershed point; holding it means a trend recovery, failing means the rebound is over. $MU
#美光暴跌后: Is it at the bottom or halfway up the mountain? 1. The market's main focus is on cloud providers and AI capital expenditures: AMZN raises full-year 2026 capital expenditure, AWS business continues to accelerate; MSFT significantly rises after earnings release; $GOOGL continues to advance Gemini's deployment in the robotics sector. 2. AAPL and AMZN simultaneously submit 8-K operational announcements, both exceeding performance expectations, but funding pricing shows clear divergence: the market assigns higher valuation premiums to AWS cloud and AI growth, while Apple's stock price is pressured despite strong earnings. ● $AAPL -1.4% 💰【Positive Earnings】Apple's Q3 revenue hits a new stage high • Nikkei reports growth in the China region driving overall performance • Both revenue and profit core metrics exceed market expectations 📌Funding observation: FINRA short sale ratio at 48%, consistent with the 19-day average, continue monitoring short-seller activity • Market divergence: service business growth underperforms market expectations ● $AMZN +3.9% 💰【Positive Earnings】Amazon submits 8-K operational performance filing • SEC discloses official earnings announcement, after-hours peak gain over 10% • CEO states: full-year 2026 capital expenditure raised to $220 billion 🚀Industry update: Zoox autonomous vehicles receive NHTSA approval 📰Key highlight: AWS revenue achieves fastest growth in 18 quarters ● $GOOGL -0.9% 🚀【Product Update】Gemini RoboticSK Hynix rose 6.27% today to 1,173, with an intraday low of 900 and a high of 1,174. It rose from 900, nearly $300 in a single day, an increase of over 30%.
(1) Data
SK Hynix is currently at $1,173.08, up 6.26% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of 900.00 and a high of 1,174.00, and a turnover of 1.573 billion. On the 7th, the decline narrowed to -1.83%, and on the 30th, it still fell -26.29%. SUPERTREND shows support near 1,108, with the price having broken above the WMA 5/10/20 moving averages. 900 is today's low and an important support level for this round of decline. The price jumped directly from 900 to 1,174, with almost no pullback throughout the day—a typical short-squeeze trend.
(2) Why is it rising?
The storage sector collectively recovered. Microsoft's earnings report drove AI narrative recovery, with SanDisk rising 47% in two days, Micron rebounding from 706 to over 800, and SK Hynix jumping from 900 to 1,174. SK Hynix was previously sold off due to an excessive HBM proportion and revenue below expectations, but Microsoft's financial report proved that AI demand has not slowed—Azure cloud revenue grew 43%, exceeding expectations, and annual cloud revenue exceeded 100 billion for the first time. The market has rediscovered that the demand for AI infrastructure is real, and the supercycle of memory chips is not yet over.
(3) Key locations
Resistance: 1,200-1,220; if broken and holding, it may continue to test 1,300-1,350. Support: 1,080-1,100; if confirmed on a pullback, it is a potential entry point for bulls. 900 is the bottom of this round; if it falls below it again, the bearish structure will regain dominance.
(4) My judgment
SK Hynix jumped from 900 to 1,174, and SanDisk jumped from 972 to 1,436, all part of the collective valuation recovery in the storage sector. The 1,200-1,220 resistance zone is crucial. If it can break through with increased volume, this rebound could continue toward 1,300-1,350. If it is pushed back below this level, it may just be a technical correction after an oversold rebound.
900 is the short-term bottom, and 1,200 is the watershed. If it can't get past it, it's an oversold rebound; only after it gets past will the trend recover. $SKHYNIX
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks experienced sharp fluctuations 不出所料，25岁AI股神Leopold创立的对冲基金SALP还是爆仓了，确实遭遇了大规模强制清算。说实话，两个月前就预感，Leopold水平还不如木头姐，还是没想到这么快就离场了。由于SALP采用了4倍杠杆，个股急跌迅速引发了追加保证金危机。该基金在7月30日，清空了全部公开市场美股头寸，打包转让给单一买家城堡投资(Citadel)。
Leopold在2024年发表165页轰动AI圈的长文“态势感知”后成立同名基金，主打“AGI算力/基础设施”极度看多策略，并获得Stripe创始人等顶尖资本支持。到2026年年中，该基金管理规模一度从初始的约2.25亿美元飙升至200亿美金以上，累计净收益率曾高达439%。但极为集中的多头配置与极高杠杆，最终在这一波AI交易回调中引发了连环爆仓。
如是专业交易员，请自行搜索亚洲金融@AsiaFinance在5月18日的日志。总体感觉他不懂对冲，做多和做空，比较极端。我们当时写下：“被吹上天的韭菜Leopold，刚公布悲惨的13F报告。除做多新兴算力和矿企转型，如CRWV和CLSK，他在2026年Q1期间，对半导体巨头发起74.6亿美元的看跌期权。截至5月18日，这笔庞大的看跌期权(Put)组合，包括NVDA、INTC、AMD、AVGO、ORCL、TSM等，大概率处于严重的账面亏损状态”。就是说，做空早了，后面做多又晚了。
现在复盘，Leopold在5月就不行了。危险信号｜KAITO大涨背后，解锁将让供应直接翻倍
$KAITO
最近圈子里聊KAITO的人真的特别多。在绝大多数AI币种集体走弱的时候，它逆势走出一波大行情，月涨幅直接冲到113.72%，到处都是关于它的讨论，很容易让人被这股热闹的情绪带着走。可当我静下心看完链上数据、解锁规划还有市场的各类讨论之后，心里多了不少顾虑。
过去四天，价值561万美元的445.2万枚KAITO，从币安被提取到六个外部钱包。市场有一部分声音把大额提币解读为大户囤币看多，这个说法听起来很美好，但经历过这么多山寨行情，我不敢简单直接把它当成利好。大额筹码离开交易所，未来随时都有可能重新回流市场，这是悬在价格上方实实在在的隐患。
真正让人担心的，是未来的代币供给压力。接下来12个月，KAITO会迎来大约2.41亿枚代币解锁，供应量几乎直接翻一倍。更关键的是项目回购已经暂停，代币只做持有，不会销毁。想象一下，近乎同等体量的筹码要陆续涌向市场，即便现在的多头情绪再狂热，想要完全承接住这么大的抛压，难度可想而知。这一轮上涨本就很大程度来自AI叙事带来的情绪炒作，一旦情绪退潮，供给带来的压力就会直接显现出来。
社区里面的一些讨论，同样值得我们静下心来听一听。现在场上堆积了不少杠杆多头，大家对质押奖励抱有很高的期待，但已经有不少人提出质疑，这套模式，普通参与者未必能够拿到长久稳定的收益。不少鲸鱼地址，更热衷于玩杠杆敞口，而不是老老实实沉淀现货，每当我看见这种现象，心里总会绷紧一根弦。
再看盘面的状态，价格已经跌到VWAP均线下方，成交量差额不断下滑，进场资金的力度明显减弱，卖方压力在慢慢出来，盘面流动性也开始变软。靠情绪堆起来的行情最怕一件事：买盘跟不上。一旦热度消退，回调往往来得又快又猛。
我不是全盘否定KAITO的AI叙事，热点赛道随时都有可能再度点燃情绪，行情从来没有绝对的一面。只是见过太多人被短期暴涨迷惑，头脑一热就冲进去，最后被行情狠狠教训。
面对这种短期爆火的山寨币种，真的不要看着别人盈利就着急跟风入场。叙事再好听，数据和现实也要放在心上，杠杆更要万分谨慎。市场从来不缺机会，在币圈活下来，远比抓住某一波暴涨更加重要。
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 [Today's Market Observation: Weekly Close Battle! Macro Liquidity Migration, Tech Stock Retreat, and BTC's Independent Pricing]
1. Macro Liquidity and Tech Stocks: Not a "Drain," but a "Massive Capital Migration"
The recent sharp shocks in US stocks (especially Nasdaq, semiconductor AI chains) and Korean stocks have caused great panic in the market, but we must see through the liquidity essence behind this:
Fed's Clear Signal: The interest rate decision has firmly confirmed the imminent arrival of a "loose monetary" cycle. The underlying market liquidity has not contracted; instead, it is expected to expand.
Logic Behind Tech Stock Turmoil: The tech stock sell-off is a "valuation bubble deflation following liquidity expectation fulfillment," not a macroeconomic collapse. Before the rate cut lands, capital chooses to take profits from the extremely crowded, overvalued tech hardware sector.
Subsequent Tech Stock Trend: In the short term, tech stocks need time to digest the high-level trapped positions above, entering a wide-range volatile "dead time." But in the medium to long term, as long as the rate cut cycle's floodgates open, tech stocks still have fundamental support, though the capital attack slope will significantly slow down.
2. Gold and BTC: The "Two Reservoirs" of Safe-Haven Funds
Where did the large volume of funds withdrawn from tech stocks go? The answer lies in the gold and BTC markets:
Gold's Certainty: Gold continuously breaking highs is the purest pricing of "dollar credit depreciation" and the "rate cut cycle," absorbing the most conservative portion of safe-haven funds.
BTC's "Hardcore Resilience": The most alarming signal this time is—BTC refuses to follow Nasdaq's plunge. Amid the US stock market turmoil these days, BTC has stood firm like an anchor at the iron bottom of 63,500 - 64,000 USD. This indicates BTC is shedding its previous "tech stock high-leverage derivative" label, beginning to absorb macro liquidity overflowing from US stocks, demonstrating the "digital gold" independent safe-haven and reservoir attributes.
3. Market Structure and Weekly Close: The Ultimate Judgment of the 63,500 USD Iron Bottom
Today is Friday; how the weekly candle closes will directly determine the main force's trading tone next week. The current market structure is exceptionally clear:
"Backtest" is extremely healthy: Falling from 66,000 to around 64,000 USD accompanied by volume contraction and deleveraging. This is a benign technical backtest after breaking out of the 57k-59k W bottom, with a very solid spot base inside the market.
Weekly Lifeline (63,500 USD): As long as today's daily and tomorrow morning's weekly close candles firmly hold above 63,500 USD, all efforts by bears are declared bankrupt, and the mid-term bullish structure will perfectly continue.
Bullish Counterattack Horn (65,000 USD): The 65,000 USD level (daily 50-day EMA) above remains the pivot for bull-bear conversion. A volume breakout above 65,000 is a clear signal for the right-side main upward wave to restart.
4. Today's Tactics and Operation Principles
The trend is set; Friday's tactical core is "defensive counterattack," firmly adhering to the iron rule of not being left behind:
Spot Base Position (Absolute Core): The blood-stained chips we acquired in the 58,000 - 59,000 USD range are now the safest assets in the entire market. Continue to hold spot with the absolute belief of "No Sell," regardless of macro turbulence, lock in place, waiting for liquidity to fully flood the crypto market.
Contract Tactics (Left-side dip buy, right-side add-on):
Relying on the iron bottom dip buy: If extreme volume contraction dips occur intraday due to weekend effects, 63,500 - 64,000 USD remains our golden pit for tactical low-leverage long entries, with stop loss at 62,800 USD as the ultimate defense.
Right-side chase conditions: Avoid chasing highs lightly on Friday. But if the market shows abnormal movement with volume-driven strong breakout and stabilizes above 65,000 USD, it can directly switch to right-side trend following, betting on the early start of next week's market. $BTC $ETH $SNDK After pocketing that 136U last night
My hands feel light today
Went through my watchlist
One short position is running, one altcoin is bouncing
My mindset is completely different from yesterday
Not rushing to find the next prey
But watching slowly, no hurry
$SNDK Closed the long position yesterday
Today reversed and placed a short at 1433
50x leverage, took 2 contracts
Margin 57.3U
Current price 1379, floating profit 108U
Liquidation at 1568, still some buffer left
On the 1-hour chart, a V-shaped reversal from the 972 bottom
Volume increased and pulled up for a while
Now around 1400, showing some signs of stagnation
This trade is just a scout
Take profit pushed to 1410 to lock in profits
If it breaks 1450, let it close itself
If it hits resistance and falls back, consider the 108U as free profit
$MMT Is the craziest one in today's watchlist
From 0.167 to 0.2749
Up 16% in a single day
The candlestick is almost vertical upwards
But this kind of rapid explosive pull
Has only 8.2 million 24-hour volume
The main force can easily dump and create a pin bar
Never chase at 0.255
If I really want to touch it
Place a limit order between 0.22 and 0.23
Wait for a pullback and stabilization before deciding
If it doesn't drop, just ignore it
Missing out is like it never happened
$BTC is grinding at 64861
1-hour MACD is dulling, volume shrinking
The market is stagnant
Small caps' independent moves can turn anytime
Last night's profits are already locked in
Today's short position is running, orders are waiting
The biggest mistake after continuous profits
Is thinking you are right about everything
Rushing to open another position
That 128U loss yesterday taught me one thing
After making money, the hand that wants to open another order
Must be controlled by yourself
No chasing highs today, no new positions
Set stop loss and let it run
Today's goal is already achieved #Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #AIStoryDiverges 在L2高速崛起的两年间，两个核心疑问始终萦绕以太坊社区：L2是否在持续侵蚀L1的核心价值？以太坊的全局可组合性是否正在逐步消解？过往以太坊的分层逻辑清晰固化：L1主打安全稳定，承担底层结算职能，但手续费高昂、吞吐量有限；L2作为高效扩容执行层，以低成本、高吞吐补足主网短板。这套分工大幅拓展了以太坊的区块空间，却也割裂了网络生态，让以太坊从“完整统一的公链”，变成碎片化的多层架构。基于此，以太坊社区近两年持续复盘L1与L2的底层关系，一轮全新的架构重构正在悄然推进。一方面，L1主动突破原有定位，持续上调Gas上限、推进无状态升级与zkEVM验证落地，彻底摒弃“仅做底层结算底座”的保守定位，全力提升自身执行与吞吐能力。另一方面，社区顶层认知持续迭代：Vitalik年初明确表态，随着L1原生扩容能力升级，五年前敲定的“以L2为核心扩容方案”的路线图，底层前提已然改变。以太坊研究者Barnabé Monnot更是进一步提出，行业需要重新定义L1与L2的长期价值分工，聚焦三大核心命题：L2的长期价值落点、交易最终确定性的极致压缩、以及证明系统落地后，L1或将演化成自身的Rollup。虽暂无最终协议定论，但这些观点为以太坊架构终局，提供了全新的核心研判视角。归根结底，当下以太坊的核心困境，早已不是单纯的“扩容增量”，而是在交易、资产、用户状态全面分散至多类执行环境后，如何重新界定L1、L2、执行层、结算层的权责边界，搭建统一、协同、无割裂的网络体系。当我在2023年12月发现Bittensor $TAO时，价格大约是350美元。
当时最好的计算子网是SN27，现在它已经被注销，并被更好的子网取代。
挖矿SN27非常简单，就是添加你从某处租来的GPU，验证者会盲目验证它是否真的是H200服务器。矿工可以作弊，添加虚假统计数据，比如伪装成另一款价值更高的GPU，拥有无限VRAM和内存统计。
另一个子网是SN28，现在也被废弃和注销了，其目标是预测标普500价格。我们挖矿只需租一个廉价的CPU实例，注册许多在同一服务器上运行的热键，并发送随机价格数字。
在当时挖矿活动的高峰期，我每天净赚高达5k美元。每天都是如此。
挖矿很容易，充满了漏洞，子网输出毫无用处。
现在，到了2026年，我无法在计算子网上单独挖矿。我无法作弊。成熟的子网中没有漏洞。利润空间很小。产品正在从喜爱它们的用户那里产生收入。猜猜怎么着，$TAO的价格是185美元。
重点是，你要寻找的信号不是$TAO价格或子网alpha价格……而是要检查挖矿变得多么竞争激烈，利润空间多么狭窄，产品多么有用，以及普通人是否能使用它。
如果子网带来了有用的工作，那就意味着协议按预期运作：有用工作证明区块链。
我认为Bittensor比以前好多了。忘掉我一直发的那些玩笑吧，因为你们太疯狂了，当我积极乐观时，你们觉得价格会崩盘，就想想这个……它就是变得更好了。Tonight's violent surge in the US stock market, many people thought it was Micron driving the rise, but in fact it was Microsoft's cloud business leading the rally, with Nbis still leading the charge.
There are two important logics here: first, Microsoft’s investment in data centers still maintains good cash flow; second, the monetization capability of AI cloud business is entering a positive trajectory.
Also worth focusing on tonight is Amazon. Investors are now watching whether the major AI companies maintain positive cash flow from their AI investments, which is of utmost importance. #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% #财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ #财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta issues disappointing guidance—Is the AI story diverging?
Is the AI story entering the acceptance phase?
Microsoft Cloud revenue has exceeded 100 billion, while Meta faces guidance pressure. I find this comparison more interesting than just looking at stock prices.
Previously, the market hyped AI:
"Whoever invests in AI is the future."
But now capital is cooling down:
Is AI just a hype, or a business that can truly generate profit?
Microsoft has proven one thing:
If AI can integrate with cloud and enterprise services, it can indeed create commercial value.
Meta's issues also remind the market:
Huge investment doesn't mean immediate profit; the AI competition is not just about technology but also about cash flow and commercial execution capability.
My view:
AI won't end; it’s just entering the next phase.
The past few years were about imagination; the coming years will be about execution.
The crypto world is the same.
Every bull market brings new stories, but those that last are often not the loudest but the projects with real users, real revenue, and real value.
I believe future opportunities remain, but the market will become increasingly selective.
Be friends with time; the future is promising.
@OKX星球
The above represents personal views only and does not constitute investment advice. $ZEC 一、Ironwood升级概况 Zcash已于7月28日在区块高度3,428,143成功激活Ironwood（NU6.3）网络升级。核心内容： · 永久关闭旧Orchard隐私池，不再接收新增资金 · 约360万枚ZEC（价值约18亿美元）需迁移至新Ironwood池 · 引入 “Turnstile”（转门）机制：离开旧池的资金不得超过已验证存入总量，伪造代币将被永久困在旧池 · ZEC总供应量可本地独立验证，当前为16,848,458枚 Zcash联合创始人Zooko Wilcox已确认：任何人均可通过本地电脑验证ZEC供应量，不存在秘密增发。 二、当前盘面 ZEC现报约471-472美元，24小时上涨2.5%，市值约79亿美元。 升级前ZEC一度攀升至560-575美元附近，升级后快速回落至466-470美元区间，累计回调约18%。目前ZEC已跌破50日均线（约495美元） 和100日均线（约484美元），正在测试更关键的长期支撑。 三、多空核心因素 多头看点 · 核心信任危机解除：“无限增发”漏洞已被Ironwood修复，ZEC供应完整性可独立验证，长期叙事逻辑恢复 ·📊 [On-chain Chip Peaks and Clearing Hot Zones]
$ZEC Currently fluctuating in the $462-472 range. After peaking at $575 in mid-July, it has pulled back about 18%. As a market with thinner liquidity than Bitcoin, ZEC tends to overreact in both directions when support test results are clear.
🔺 Resistance levels: $472 is the first resistance at the 100-day moving average; It will take 4 hours for the $478-480 price range to close above and confirm a rebound; $495-500 is the dual resistance at the 50-day moving average and the 0.786 Fibonacci line; $550 is the main medium-term resistance, and after a breakout, $636 could be targeted; $800 is a strong long-term resistance.
🔻 Lower support: $462-$470 is current local support, coinciding with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $469.76 and the lower boundary of the downward channel; $450 is a key support level; $411 overlaps with the 200-day EMA support zone; $300 is a potential target if both 450 and 411 fall.
🐋 [On-chain Market Maker Movements]
The whale's behavior is a mix of bullish and bearish behavior. On July 2, the whale address "0xf56" bought 9,663 ZEC ($4.02 million) on HyperLiquid at an average price of $416, while holding a 2x leveraged long position of 12,009 ZEC ($5 million). Another whale deposited $10.12 million into HyperLiquid and opened $8.1 million in 2x leveraged long positions (20,338 ZEC), currently unrealized at $135,000. The ZEC long-short ratio rose to 1.05, indicating a bullish market sentiment.
But the bears are also active. A whale cashed out $22.61 million through eight sales in about a year and a half, currently holding 230,100 ZEC (market value about $126 million), with total returns exceeding $150 million. This position experienced over 50% book drawdown in 2025. Once a top trader's long position is liquidated, it can lead to a stampede.
📈 [Positive Factors]
· 💰 Ironwood upgrade officially activated: On July 28, block height 3,428,143 activated the Ironwood upgrade, introducing a formally verified privacy pool and turnstile mechanism to ensure supply integrity. ZEC rose about 4% on the day of the upgrade.
· 🏦 Top institutions are clearly bullish: Multicoin Capital has accumulated a significant proportion of ZEC supply, and its partners call it "the most obvious trade of 2026" and "the private version of Bitcoin." Forbes has included ZEC in its list of the best crypto assets for 2026. Grayscale Zcash Trust remains the only product among U.S. broker accounts that offers pure ZEC exposure.
· 📉 Oversold rebound and technical support: It has rebounded about 29% from the June low of $362. The RSI shows a bullish divergence. Binance liquidation heatmap shows that there are about $4.42 million and $6.27 million in short positions at $488-$491 and $498-500, respectively, pending liquidation.
⚠️ [Negative Factors]
· 📉 Price structure under comprehensive pressure: ZEC has fallen below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Since the mid-July peak of $575, it has corrected about 18%, forming lower highs and lower lows. The RSI around 43 has not yet entered the oversold zone, indicating that the downside potential has not been fully exhausted.
· 🏛️ Geopolitics and macroeconomic headwinds: Renewed US-Iran conflict, oil prices approaching $100 pushing inflation expectations higher, continuing to suppress risk assets. Although both sides paused their attacks, the ceasefire remained fragile. ZEC, as a high-beta asset, is highly sensitive to macro risks.
· 🔥 $1.8 billion forced migration brings selling pressure: Ironwood's upgrade forced about 3.6 million ZEC (worth about $1.8 billion) to move from the old Orchard pool to the new pool. A large number of tokens may be transferred to exchanges for cash during the migration process. $ZEC fell 4.8% within 24 hours after the upgrade activated. $ZEC #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE becomes a new highlight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% after hours #财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is lacking—Is the AI story diverging? 🐋 Whale SKHX long position deep V reversal, unrealized profit of 6.44 million!
37,000 long orders (43 million) recovered all lost ground, and SKHX's price rebounded strongly.
💡 After extreme volatility, sentiment strongly recovered, and short positions were liquidated, driving the market. However, with massive long positions breaking even, the upper side may face profit-taking selling pressure.
⚠️ Strategy: Beware of the "break even and then dump" tactic! Do not blindly chase highs; focus on rebound resistance levels for support; trading on the right side is more reliable.
#SKHX #巨鲸 #交易复盘 SanDisk (SNDK) Comprehensive Overview: Latest Market Trends, Price Fluctuations, Fundamentals, Bull-Bear Logic + Key Price Levels (As of US Eastern Close 7.30)
1. Latest Core Market Data (US Eastern July 30)
Closing Price: $1279.96, Single-day Surge +25.99%
Intraday Range: Open 1135.01, High 1285.48, Low 1124.00
Volume: 24.4 million shares, Turnover $29.869 billion, Turnover Rate 16.69%, Volume Surge in Oversold Rebound
Stage Trend Review:
All-time High: $2354 (June), Maximum Drawdown Nearly 46%;
7.27 Plunged 11% → 7.29 Further Drop Over 20% Touching Low of $998 → 7.30 Violent Rebound 26%, a Technical Oversold Recovery After Sharp Decline;
Year-to-date Overall Gain Still Exceeds 480%, Over 32x Increase in One Year, Extreme Cycle Mega Bull Stock
Valuation: TTM P/E Ratio 43x, Still Far Above Reasonable Storage Cycle Valuation (8-15x), Valuation Bubble Not Fully Absorbed
Key Timeline: August 6 Upcoming Latest Quarterly Earnings Release, Biggest Short-term Directional Catalyst TradingVie...
2. Complete Reasons for Sharp Drop Followed by Strong Rebound in Recent Days
(1) Root Causes of Consecutive Sharp Drops in Previous Two Days (Sector-wide Sell-off)
Large Profit-taking at High Levels + Cycle Peak Expectation Brewing (Core)
Exploded dozens of times since the beginning of the year, capital clustered extremely; market anticipates NAND flash price hikes nearing end: Q3 NAND contract price only up 10%-15% QoQ, sharply down from Q2’s 55%+ increase, performance growth unsustainable, capital preemptively sells to lock in profits.
Long-term Overcapacity Fear
Samsung and SK Hynix ramp up 3D NAND expansion, institutions generally predict: NAND overall supply surplus by 2027, flash prices turning downward, storage boom cycle nearing end.
Domestic Storage Substitution Negative Impact
ChangXin Technology’s IPO to raise funds for expansion, Yangtze Memory’s enterprise SSDs continuously capturing domestic AI server storage share, overseas storage giants’ long-term market space compressed, valuation premium erased.
US Tech Market Weakness + Options Negative Gamma Stampede
Nasdaq and Semiconductor Index pull back, high beta storage sector drops far more than the market; stock price repeatedly breaks support, market makers forced to sell, accelerating crash, bottoming at $998 integer level.
(2) Logic Behind 26% Single-day Surge on July 30
Short-term Deep Oversold, Technical Rebound Necessity
Two-day cumulative max drawdown over 35%, RSI in extreme oversold zone, bottom-fishing and short-term speculative funds massively entering to play rebound; $1000 level attracts strong long-term capital support.
Industry Fundamentals Not Deteriorated, Spot Prices Still Rising
Spot NAND chips still rising in Q3, just at a slower pace, not falling; Kioxia + SanDisk’s annual NAND capacity mostly locked by cloud providers’ long-term contracts, revenue and profit stability sufficient, sharp drop deviates too much from fundamentals.
Nasdaq Broad Recovery, AI Computing Sector Collective Repair
Nvidia, AMD and other AI leaders stop falling and rebound, risk appetite recovers, capital flows back to semiconductor high-elasticity sectors.
Options Exercise Gravity Boost
$1500 is the largest call option open interest pain point, market makers motivated to temporarily lift stock price toward this level.
3. Company Fundamentals Analysis (Mainly Pure NAND Flash)
Positive Support Logic
Business Structure Continues to Optimize, AI Enterprise Storage Becomes Growth Driver
60% revenue from data center AI server SSDs, tied to Amazon, Microsoft, Google long-term contracts, 60% shipments locked-price supply, greatly mitigating flash cycle volatility; automotive and industrial edge storage gross margins steadily rising; low-margin USB flash drives and memory card business continuously shrinking.
Asset-light Operation, Better Cycle Resistance than Samsung, Micron, Hynix
Joint venture wafer fab with Kioxia, no need to bear trillion-yuan plant construction cost alone; flexible production control and price protection in downturn, stable supply in upturn, restrained capital expenditure, abundant cash flow.
Extremely Healthy Financial Status
Net cash on hand, zero interest-bearing debt; launched $6 billion buyback plan; last quarter EPS $23.41, exceeding market expectations by 60%, gross margin peaked at 78%, strong profit elasticity Sina Finance.
Global Brand Moat in Consumer Storage
SD cards, portable SSDs, USB drives hold top global market share, offline channel premium hard to replace by white-label or niche brands.
Mid-to-long Term Core Risks
Cyclical Fate: NAND Price Cycle Ceiling Approaching
Consumer electronics (phones, PCs) demand remains weak, AI alone insufficient to permanently absorb new capacity; after 2027 NAND supply loosens, price decline will directly pressure revenue, gross margin, and stock price.
High-end AI Storage Technology Lags Top Three
Samsung and Hynix lead in enterprise high-speed SSD and stacking layer iteration, SanDisk’s high-end compute storage share catching up slowly.
Domestic Storage Continues Penetration Squeezing Overseas Shares 家人们，昨晚的市场简直像坐了火箭！🚀 市场情绪一夜之间从“怕衰退”秒切到“抢反弹”，一口吃掉了所有悲观！今天带大家复盘这波极限反转，看看钱都去哪儿了👇 📊 【今日高光快照】 💰 $SOXL 暴涨33.9%，成交额炸出4.1亿！ 📉 VIX恐慌指数单日暴跌17.29%，跌至17.08 📈 纳指飙升3.30%，标普涨1.68% 🪙 $BTC 64,805(+1.34BTC64,805(+1.34 ETH 1,924 (+0.77%) 🔍 一、恐慌退潮，谁在裸泳？ VIX一天蒸发近两成，这已经不是简单的纠偏，而是情绪的踩踏式逆转！ SOXL这类三倍做多半导体ETF疯涨， MU、 $ SKHYNIX等芯片映射代币集体放巨量攀升。热钱毫不掩饰地冲向AI硬件叙事！当恐慌指数跌回17，市场定价的不再是衰退，而是软着陆+技术革命。但一天跌17%本身也是警示：乐观来得太快，就像龙卷风🌪️ ⚔️ 二、日元突袭，宏观格局悄然变化 日本央行再度干预汇市，日元单日暴涨创两年多最大升幅，打乱了套利交易的阵脚。但美元指数 $ DXY仅微涨0.10%，说明资本并未涌向美元避险。 黄金 GLD(+$BTC ## BTC 7/31 分析
**方向：短期中性偏空，不追反弹 🧊**
---
现价 **$64,750 附近**，24小时涨了2%，但这涨法不太健康——过去24小时全网爆了 **$14.7亿**，其中62%是空头被强平。翻译一下：不是多头强，是空头被轧了。
这不是主动买盘推动的上涨，是空头踩踏。这种反弹持续性通常存疑。
---
宏观面才是真正的主线。
Binance Research刚出的H1报告：BTC上半年跌了 **32%**，连续第三个季度收阴。ETF整个6月跑出创纪录的 **$45亿净流出**，BlackRock的IBIT一家就占了75%以上。更狠的是，目前 **1083万枚BTC处于浮亏状态**，只有922万枚还在盈利——这是本轮周期首次亏损盘超过盈利盘。
美联储那边，市场定价12月加息概率 **80%**。新主席Warsh首秀就盯着通胀不放，不聊就业。
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技术面也不好看。RSI 52.7 中性但偏弱，MACD仍空头排列。恐惧贪婪指数 **28**，恐惧区。关键支撑 **$64,005**（50日SMA + 一目均衡 Kijun），破了就看 $62,600。阻力 $65,000-65,300，再往上 $66,000 是硬骨头。
还有个短期利好：ETF刚终结了10天连续流出，周四进了 **$2.22亿**。但一天的数据不够说明趋势逆转。
---
**结论：等，别追。**
这波反弹是空头爆仓推上去的，不是真金白银的主动买入。$64,000 是生命线，破了就等 $62,000-63,000 再考虑进场。站上 $65,000 且放量确认，再考虑追也不迟。
Binance Research 给了一个值得记住的判断：**Q4 2026 可能是本轮底部窗口**。但现在才7月底，时间还够，钱省着花。🌍 Global Macro Express | July 31: The Federal Reserve remains "hawkish," global markets enter a mode of high volatility
Last night, the main theme in global financial markets was singular—although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, its stance was more moderate and hawkish than the market expected.
The market had expected further rate cuts this year, but the Fed stated inflation still needs to be monitored, and significant policy disagreements emerged internally, causing U.S. Treasury yields to rise rapidly and risk assets under short-term pressure.
📈 Global stock market performance:
• 🇺🇸 US tech stocks have shown significant volatility, with differentiation in the AI sector. Microsoft's stronger-than-expected earnings led the Nasdaq to rebound; Meanwhile, some chip and AI concept stocks showed weaker performance, with funds paying more attention to corporate earnings quality rather than just AI stories.
• 🇪🇺 European stock markets overall remain resilient, but the market is still awaiting more U.S. economic data to confirm the direction.
• 🇯🇵🇰🇷 Asian market sentiment remains cautious; Japan, South Korea, and some Asian tech stocks have been affected by adjustments in the semiconductor sector, leading to a decline in risk appetite.
💰 What does this mean for the crypto market?
Currently, Crypto is still in a macro-driven phase.
When Treasury yields continue to rise and the dollar remains strong, market liquidity tends to tighten, causing risk assets like BTC and ETH to experience short-term volatility.
However, if U.S. inflation continues to cool and policy expectations in September turn to easing again, risk assets may still regain capital favor.
📌 Today's market focus includes:
Whether U.S. economic data will continue to support cooling down;
Will U.S. Treasury yields continue to surge?
Whether U.S. tech earnings reports can continue to boost market risk appetite;
Can BTC and ETH hold key support under macro pressure?
In short:
The Fed has not raised rates, but more importantly than "not raising rates," it has not given the market the accommodative signals it wants. In the short term, global market volatility will remain high. Controlling positions and patiently waiting for trend confirmation is more important than blindly chasing gains.
The above content is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice.
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight # $BEAT The current core contradiction is: on August 1, about 21.25 million tokens (accounting for 6.9% of circulation, worth over $70 million) have not yet been unlocked, but the market showed signs of momentum slowing after surging around 3.9 on the eve of the unlock, causing a sharp split between bulls and bears.
On the market factual level, BEAT quickly rebounded from 2.45 to around 3.9, with short-term gains entering the previously concentrated trading zone. After multiple attempts at 3.9 at the 15-minute level, it failed to break through effectively, indicating genuine selling pressure at this level, and the upside space is not without resistance.
Driver Order: Unlocking events are currently the largest supply and demand variable; 21.25 million new circulating tokens mean considerable potential selling pressure; Secondly, on the sentiment side, the rally on the eve of unlocking already affects the bears' stop-loss positions and entry rhythm, so the position structure is already being passively adjusted.
Upward scenario: If the unlocked chips have been already digested in advance or holders choose not to sell, once the current short stop loss concentration near 3.9 is swept, the price may surge rapidly. The trigger condition is that within 24 hours after unlocking, the large on-chain transfer volume falls below expectations, and the 3.9 level effectively breaks through and holds steady. Observe the variable is the on-chain flow of the unlock address. A failure signal refers to a large-scale transfer to the exchange that occurs after unlocking.
Downside scenario: If unlocked chips are concentrated and cashed out, combined with profit-taking near 3.9, the price may quickly fall back to the 3.4-3.5 support zone. In extreme sentiment, testing around 3.0 is not ruled out. The trigger conditions are large accumulation on the chain after unlocking, and a noticeable increase in spot selling volume. The variables to watch are the depth changes on the day of unlocking and the direction of funding rates. A breakdown signal is that after unlocking, the price surges rapidly and breaks through 4.0.
Determining the failure condition: If an abnormally large buy order occurs on the day of unlock, directly absorbing selling pressure, or if overall market risk appetite suddenly rises and high-volatility assets rise in tandem, the current bearish logic needs to be repriced.
The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours: unlocking the direction of transfers on the address chain, whether 3.9 can effectively break through, and the volume and price coordination of the first 4-hour candlestick after unlocking.
#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight微软股价上演了一场酣畅淋漓的大反攻。当天收盘涨幅定格在15.5%，虽然只是公司历史上第四大的单日涨幅，但考虑到其庞大的体量，这次上涨带来的实际冲击力堪称史无前例，市值猛增4500亿美元，直接改写了美股个股单日市值增幅的历史纪录。 此前这项纪录的保持者是英伟达，在2025年4月9日创下了4400亿美元的单日增幅。 这次暴涨发生在一个颇为微妙的时点上。就在前一天，微软股价还深陷泥潭，年内累计跌幅约19.3%，投资者对AI赛道的热情明显降温，市场弥漫着一股失望的情绪。 而一夜之间，微软就把跌幅收窄到了5.8%，几乎填平了半年的坑。 市场情绪逆转的核心动力，来自微软刚刚交出的那份财报。虽然具体数据没有在这条快讯里展开，但从市场反应来看，这份成绩单显然超出了预期，尤其是在AI商业化落地方面的进展，打消了此前外界最担心的几个问题。$MSFT 过去几个月，AI概念股整体表现疲软，市场开始质疑巨额资本开支能否换来相应的回报。微软这次的财报就像一颗定心丸，让投资者重新相信，AI的故事不仅仅停留在算力军备竞赛阶段，而是正在转化为实实在在的收入和利润。 不过，单日15.5%的涨幅，单纯用业绩来解释似乎还不Elon's $SPCX has secured a $1.6 billion Space Force contract, which is positive for SPCX but leans more toward the medium to long term; it may not directly trigger sustained surges in the short term.
SpaceX will be responsible for 18 Falcon 9 launch missions through 2027, reaffirming the stability of government orders.
My views are threefold:
First, this is a fundamental positive.
Government contracts not only increase revenue but also indicate SpaceX's enhanced position within the U.S. national security space framework, where client stickiness is typically very high.
Second, the short-term stock price may not solely reflect the contract.
The market is currently focused on post-IPO valuation, upcoming lock-up expirations, and the first earnings report. If these factors cause selling pressure, the contract's positive impact might be partially offset.
Third, I am more optimistic about the medium to long term.
With ongoing government contracts, Starlink, and Starship progress, SpaceX's revenue streams are becoming increasingly diversified. If performance meets expectations in the coming quarters, this contract will be a key factor supporting valuation.
My strategy:
Short term: Don't chase the price just because of one positive news; watch for volume breakout above key resistance levels.
Medium to long term: If you believe in the commercial space sector, these large government contracts will continuously strengthen SpaceX's competitive edge, making each pullback more worth watching.
SpaceX is evolving from a space company into a part of the U.S. space infrastructure. This has greater significance for long-term valuation than the contract amount itself.
#SpaceX获$1.6B美军合同，股价暴跌引两派争议 Overnight, the narrative completely reversed, with financial reports proving AI can be profitable. The four major cloud providers' cloud services all grew faster than expected, and even Amazon, which raised its capital expenditures, surged 10 points in after-hours trading.
Apple's $XAAPL also expects storage costs to continue rising after the September quarter. The Leopold fund, the largest leveraged buyer in storage, was also liquidated. On the macro side, combined with the negative monthly PCE rate in June and the slowdown in GDP growth, the pressure to raise interest rates has eased.
So is this a rebound or a reversal? Let's keep watching. #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours #财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is weak—Is the AI story diverging? Global assets are rising, but BTC remains unchanged. SNDK jumped 34% in one day, MSFT rose 15%, and QQQ rebounded 3%. Microsoft's earnings report has led the market to believe that AI is not a bottomless pit for burning cash, and PCE data has also suppressed fears of interest rate hikes.
But what about BTC? 64,777, amplitude 0.07%, candlestick like an ECG stopped.
This divergence is quite telling. Improved liquidity expectations theoretically benefit all risk assets, but all funds are flowing into US stocks, leaving BTC on the sidelines. This shows that smart money now believes U.S. stocks are more certain.
I went through this stage. BTC's narrative is not on the same page as the US stock market—US stocks are leading the way in fundamental recovery, while BTC is waiting for real liquidity injections. Before that, it's all about grinding.
$BTC $ETH $SOLWarning Signs | Behind KAITO's surge, unlocking will directly double supply
$KAITO
Recently, there have been a lot of people talking about KAITO in the circle. While most AI coins were collectively weakening, it bucked the trend and pulled off a major rally, with monthly gains soaring to 113.72%. Discussions about it are everywhere, and it's easy to be swept away by this lively sentiment. But after calmly reading through on-chain data, unlocking plans, and various market discussions, I felt quite worried.
In the past four days, 4.452 million KAITO worth $5.61 million were withdrawn from Binance to six external wallets. Some voices in the market interpret large withdrawals as bullish hoarding by big players. This sounds nice, but after experiencing so many fake rallies and I dare not simply treat it as positive. Large tokens leaving the exchange could return to the market at any time in the future, posing a real hidden risk above the price.
What is truly worrying is the pressure on future token supply. Over the next 12 months, KAITO will unlock about 241 million tokens, nearly doubling its supply. More importantly, the project buyback has been suspended; tokens are only held and will not be burned. Imagine if nearly equal amounts of chips are flooding into the market, no matter how fervent the bullish sentiment is, it will be extremely difficult to fully withstand such heavy selling pressure. This round of rally has largely been driven by AI narrative sentiment speculation; once sentiment fades, the pressure from supply will become apparent.
Some discussions within the community are also worth listening to. There are now many leveraged bulls accumulating in the market, and everyone has high expectations for staking rewards. However, many have already raised doubts, saying that ordinary participants may not necessarily achieve long-term stable returns under this model. Many whale investors prefer to leverage their positions rather than quietly accumulating spot positions. Whenever I see this, I always feel a tight grip in my heart.
Looking at the market situation, prices have fallen below the VWAP moving average, volume differentials continue to shrink, capital inflows have clearly weakened, selling pressure is gradually emerging, and market liquidity is starting to soften. The biggest fear in a market built on emotions is buying pressure that can't keep up. Once the hype fades, pullbacks often come quickly and fiercely.
I'm not completely denying KAITO's AI narrative; hot sectors can reignite emotions at any time, and the market never has an absolute side. I've seen too many people get confused by short-term surges, rush in on impulse, and end up being harshly taught a lesson by the market.
Faced with these short-term viral altcoins, don't rush to follow the trend just because others are profiting. No matter how good the narrative sounds, you must keep data and reality in mind, and leverage must be handled with utmost caution. The market never lacks opportunities; surviving in the crypto world is far more important than catching a single surge.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Microsoft's money spent on calls today is 7.5 times that on puts, $616 million versus $81.94 million, with no other stock in the entire market showing such a skew.
📡 Large Options Orders Data · Midday 7/30
Data as of 14:35 ET
【Core Signals】
$MSFT September 4 465 call, $12.76 million, entered at 12:06. 9,895 contracts traded, while the open interest at this strike was originally only 86 contracts — a brand new position.
$MSFT September 18 470 call, $12.74 million, 9,953 contracts, traded at 10:25.
The morning batch was still clustered around this Friday's expiration at 430/435 strikes; these two trades pushed directly into September, raising the strike prices to 465–470. The current stock price is 457.8, effectively betting on a "further 2–3% rise."
In the same batch, the March 2027 510 call ($7.8 million) was paired with 114,000 shares of stock leg; the direction is unclear and is not included in the above calculation.
$LRCX September 18 340 put sold for $45.26 million, the largest single amount today. This option had 16,783 contracts open interest, and today 7,500 contracts traded, less than the open interest, indicating old positions changing hands. The stock rose 17% today; this in-the-money protection is being unwound, not new short positions.
At 2:23 PM, within one second, $GLD had three in-the-money put trades totaling $50.28 million at strikes 440/475/500, while gold price is only 376 now. These puts with strikes far above the current price have prices that almost move one-to-one with the underlying, representing structured trades on-exchange, not "bets on a gold crash," so direction is not counted. In the same minute, $TSLA September 500 put also had $13.95 million, same pattern.
【Open Interest Tracking】
$MSFT 9/4 C465: 9,895 contracts printed vs existing 86 → new open
$GLD 12/18 P500: 2,300 contracts printed vs existing 1,301 → new open
$SMH 2027/1/15 C595: 1,398 contracts printed vs existing 173 → new open
$SOXX 8/28 P502.5: 2,250 contracts printed vs existing 0 → new open
$LRCX 8/7 C317.5: 1,654 contracts printed vs existing 31 → new open
$MSFT 9/18 C470: 9,953 contracts printed vs existing 10,736 → old position turnover
【Indices】
$SPY: total premium $384 million, net flow nearly flat, only a slight bullish bias of $6.16 million; call selling rose from $25.45 million at midday to $67.84 million
$QQQ: total premium $472 million, net bullish $63.18 million, call buying dominates at $133 million
SPX market maker structure: current price 7,426.6, reversal line 7,423.7 — price just moved above, market maker positions flipped from amplifying volatility to suppressing it. The densest put strike is 7,300 (254,500 contracts), densest call strike 7,700 (155,500 contracts), max pain point 7,175
【Dark Pools】
$MSFT: 700,000 shares @451.35 ($316 million), 351,000 shares @451.10, 200,000 shares @454.50, 200,000 shares @454.25
$SPY: 500,000 shares @737.82, 134,000 shares @738.00, 100,000 shares @738.82
Large dark pool trades only indicate institutional large volume turnover at these price levels; direction is not visible — use the printed price as a reference level: holding above is support, breaking below turns into resistance.
【Radar】
Only answering "which to watch," not "when to enter."
Based on 14:35 ET quotes — if the trigger level has passed at release, treat as a pullback confirmation; if already reached the first watch item, it is void.
Semiconductors +6.4% leading S&P +1.5%, S&P 2.6% below one-year high
$MSFT (current price 457.8) Trigger: hold above 465; invalid if below 450; first target: 480
$LRCX (current price 295.6) Trigger: hold above 305.3 (today's high zone); invalid if below 290; first target: 317.5
These key levels are signal references, not direct entry points.
【One-sentence summary】
This batch of money bets on "a second leg after the gap up," but only at the individual stock level — Microsoft positions pushed into September with higher strike prices, semiconductor equipment side is unwinding in-the-money protection; the index side is no longer following, S&P net flow returned to flat, call selling money more than doubled, and market maker positions just flipped to suppress volatility.
Not investment advice.This wave in the US stock market can definitely be called a classic "Great Miracle Day."
After being overwhelmed by various macro negative factors in the early stages, the market staged a textbook-level violent counterattack on Thursday, July 30.
Let's see just how crazy the market is:
➣ The Nasdaq surged 2.78%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 8%.
➣ The chip and memory sectors are on a frenzy, with $MU soaring 18%, $SNDK soaring 26%, and AMD also jumping 13%. Leverage and related semiconductor stocks are completely on fire.
➣ Although there are divisions within tech giants—Meta took a heavy blow, plunging nearly 8%, but Microsoft surged 15.5% in a single day, with its market value soaring by $450 billion. Coupled with Amazon's close follow-up gain of nearly 10% after hours, it managed to lift the market ahead.
Behind this desperate comeback is actually a resonance driven by dual core drivers:
On one hand, the macro environment breathed a sigh of relief. The latest inflation data is genuinely cooling down, and the overall economy remains resilient without overheating, injecting a shot of adrenaline into the previously tight market and turning expectations for future monetary policy into optimism.
On the other hand, the most direct trigger was Microsoft's impeccable "explosive" financial report.
Not only did the cloud business exceed expectations, but most importantly, it used real money to dispel market fears of a "bottomless AI money pit"—huge investments have begun to translate into tangible revenue and healthy free cash flow.
The long-suppressed market sentiment was instantly ignited, with semiconductor and tech stocks directly becoming the leading rallies. This bullish move can be said to have fought a brilliant comeback.
#SNDK #MU $AXTI represents AXT Inc., a semiconductor materials company that develops compound semiconductor substrates used in AI, 5G, optical networking, data centers, consumer electronics, and advanced communication technologies. Its products are critical for next-generation high-performance chips. 🚀
💰 Current Price: $59.07
As AI infrastructure, 5G expansion, and semiconductor demand continue to accelerate, $AXTI remains a company worth watching for its advanced materials technology, strategic industry position, and long-term growth potential.
#DailyOrbit @OKX中文 Today's market is finally getting interesting.
Bitcoin is now around $64,700-64,800, up about 1.5% in 24 hours, with an intraday high above $65,000. Erbing was $1,917, up 1.18%. Last night, it hit a low of over 63,200 and started climbing steadily in the early morning.
The core driving force behind this rally is just one thing—US stocks.
Last night, the US released two data points: the annualized GDP growth in the second quarter was only 1.5%, below expectations; However, in June, the core PCE price index fell month-on-month for the first time in six years, with the year-on-year increase narrowing significantly. The cooling inflation has eased market concerns about rate hikes a bit, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping from nearly fully priced in to around 60%.
An even stronger catalyst was Microsoft's financial report. Its earnings far exceeded expectations, with the stock price soaring more than 15%, setting the largest single-stock market capitalization increase on Wall Street in a single day. The Nasdaq 100 surged 3.4%, and Philadelphia Semiconductor soared 8%. Bitcoin is now tightly tied to tech stocks; when the Nasdaq jumps, it follows suit.
The US dollar index fell nearly 1% last night, marking its largest single-day drop since January. As the dollar weakens, dollar-denominated pancakes naturally benefit. Gold has also climbed back above $4,100.
Another detail: in the past 24 hours, about $147 million was liquidated across the entire network, with 92.3 million in short positions being liquidated, accounting for over 62%. This indicates that this rebound was partly due to bear stamping—some short positions were overwhelmed, and passive closing pushed the price higher.
But there are a few things that need to be viewed calmly.
First, ETF data is not as optimistic. Although Bitcoin ETFs ended a four-day outflow streak on Wednesday with a net inflow of $32.11 million, it was all thanks to BlackRock and IBIT alone—it brought in $89.83 million, while Fidelity was still running $43.08 million. In July, only $205 million was added to Bitcoin ETFs, marking the lowest monthly record in history. Institutions are not buying heavily, but simply adjusting their holdings.
Second, Ethereum performed slightly better, with $343 million inflows in July, outperforming Bitcoin. The trend of transferring money from big cakes to two square cakes continues.
From a technical perspective, above the broad board, 65,150-65,600 is the first resistance; above 65,722 is the previous high. Below 64,500-64,600, resistance has turned into support, and below 63,800 is the bottom line. The second bing is holding down at 1,935-1,980 above, while the lower bracket is holding at 1,900-1,870.
Simply put, today's rally was driven by warming macro sentiment and tech stocks, not by a fundamental reversal in crypto itself. It's good that 65,000 came back, but whether it can hold its ground is still uncertain. Those with positions should keep a close eye on 64,500 and don't break it; once broken, return to the old path. If you're short on positions, don't rush in as soon as it rises; wait for a pullback to confirm. $BTC $ETH 7.31 Market News Overview #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5%
The latest financial report shows that Microsoft's Q4 revenue reached $90 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, with the core driver coming from cloud business. Azure and other cloud services have shown significant growth, and AI computing power and enterprise AI services are beginning to convert into real revenue. The signal Microsoft is sending to the market is: AI investment has entered the stage of commercial realization.
On the other hand, Meta's Q2 revenue was $60.8 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, which also looks impressive, but the market's focus is different. Meta expects future capital expenditures to reach $130 billion to $145 billion, continuously increasing investment in AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, free cash flow has dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years.
Both are betting on AI, so why does the market give completely different evaluations?
The core difference may not just be technology, but the business model.
Microsoft has Azure, Office, and an enterprise software ecosystem, where AI can be directly embedded into existing products to increase enterprise willingness to pay. It is more like an upgrade on an existing business system rather than searching for a new profit model.
Meta's AI investment is more focused on infrastructure and model competition. Currently, the advertising efficiency improvement brought by AI still needs time to be verified, and large-scale investment seems more like a battle for future entry points.
So the market is asking a question:
Is AI already starting to generate cash flow, or is it still in the stage of burning money to fight for territory?
Microsoft's AI logic is more certain because it has already seen feedback on the revenue side, while Meta is not without value; its social ecosystem and advertising business remain strong, but its current valuation is more about overdrawing expectations for future AI success.
A stock price increase over a year does not mean all investments have been proven correct.
The biggest risk in the AI era is not who invests the most, but who can convert computing power into profit the fastest.
In the coming year, what truly determines the value of AI companies is not how large the capital expenditure number is, but whether every $1 invested can generate more cash flow.
The AI race has entered the second half; the market will not only reward those who burn the most money but will reward those who realize returns the fastest.
#财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ $SATS 杠杆合约基本爆仓差不多了吧？ Sats上线至今一直跌，基于一些民族特定思维模式，在下跌途中一直赌反弹、上涨，但就是跌，下跌途中一个一个的支撑位被击穿。从来没有一个山寨币像SATS一样辨识度高、热度高。 如果SATS币是奔着下架去的历史使命，那么这个币就太特别了。SATS在交易所里卖出了海量，但依然有大量的币在冷钱包，在个人手里，同时也在不同的交易所里。买不空！卖不停，一切都是设定好的剧本。这个币下架的概率远远大于“权力介入暴力洗牌”的概率，SATS下架的时候是等值USDT 1:1兑换还是提币高比例手续费呢？ 到时候就见分晓了。同时一个最直观的数据，自SATS上架以来仅欧易交易所现货交易了105亿USDT、合约交易了550亿USDT，而SATS第二大钱包占有比例不足20%，其它交易所交易了多少呢，只会更多？其中还不包括策略交易等。As the bell of the earnings report echoes like the sound of chess pieces falling on the board, Microsoft's queenside advanced by 18%, while Meta's kingside exposed a fragile pawn chain—this is not the same game.
Microsoft, with its cloud business fulfillment, presents a classical positional sacrifice: the queenside pawn chain steadily expands, with $9 billion in revenue like the precise coordination of a rook and bishop, each move hitting the golden ratio of midgame theory. Meta, with $6.08 billion in revenue and 28% growth, feints a strike, but free cash flow has dropped to a four-year low—this is clearly a risky sacrificial attack: the rook and bishop are fully committed, the kingside opens a breathing space, capital expenditures flood into the $13-14.5 billion abyss, yet no precise checkmate threat emerges.
The divergence in the AI story essentially stems from differences in opening choices. Microsoft chose the Spanish Opening, validated by millions, with every move recorded in encyclopedias; Meta plays the kingside pawn sacrifice, betting the opponent won't capture, or if they do, that it can break through the center. But the board doesn't lie: one accumulates material advantage in the endgame, the other burns pieces in the midgame, waiting for the opponent's mistake.
The XIWM US stock token is like the dynamic balance of the central squares on the chessboard—it deeply reflects the pawn chain structures of two AI strategies. If Microsoft is a solid queenside pawn chain, Meta is a loose central pawn group: seemingly aggressive, but each pawn risks being exchanged. The real winner isn't who has flashier kingside attacks, but who can leave enough live pieces in the endgame.
Amazon and Apple make their moves today. Their earnings reports will be like a decisive move—whether to continue positional containment or risk sacrificing half a piece for a long-term advantage. Players will see the reality on the board clearly, but never just focus on the opponent's recently advanced pawns and forget the empty squares behind their own queenside. #AIStoryDiverges Big short Michael Burry increased his short positions in Nvidia $NVDA and Micron $MU
$UNI Can it rise to $500?
Michael Burry's latest holdings #earningsObserver: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging?
Increased Micron $MU short positions at $933.86
At $210.28, Nvidia $NVDA short positions were increased
Shorted Caterpillar $CAT at $893.49
At $535.83, the Semiconductor ETF was increased $SOXX short positions # Banking sector jointly pressured, and the CLARITY stablecoin terms may be reversed
Increased Flutter $FLUT long positions at $100.72
Increased DraftKings $DKNG long position at $23.07
Increased Molina $MOH long position at $197.02
$BTC Burry kept his short positions in Tesla, Palantir, and QQQ unchanged at $SOL #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight
$SNDK dropped from 2354 to 1000, and $SPCX was cut in half—this market is really hard to understand
This morning, I opened the store and glanced at the candlestick; SNDK had jumped to 1279. A month ago, it was still 2354, with its market value evaporating by nearly 200 billion USD.
Looking through the news, no one has clearly explained the reason behind SanDisk's sudden plunge. The most direct trigger was Changxin Technology going public on the A-share market, rising 460% on the first day and directly reaching the highest market capitalization on the A-share market. But the problem is, SanDisk makes NAND flash memory, while Changxin is in DRAM; the two companies are fundamentally in different fields. The market ignores these things; once sentiment rises, it is considered a decline first. Moreover, recently, people have started to question how much money AI infrastructure can burn, so stocks like SanDisk, which rely on AI, naturally fell the hardest.
That said, SanDisk's fundamentals aren't bad either. Last quarter's revenue was 5.95 billion, with gross margin hitting a record high—the demand for AI storage is indeed there. In the August 5th earnings report, Wall Street expected revenue of $8.42 billion, but the company's guidance ceiling was only $8.25 billion. If it can exceed 8.42 billion, this wave might truly have bottomed out. If not, then you have to keep dragging on.
SPCX isn't much better either. It dropped from its IPO high of 225 to 107, which is also halved. Even if you throw in $1.6 billion in military contracts, the stock price won't budge.
SanDisk fell from 2354 to 1000, and SPCX dropped from 225 to 107. This market situation is really hard to understand. All they can do is wait for SanDisk's earnings report on August 5th to decide. Whether it's alive or dead will be known then. If it falls from 2354 to 1000, a 25-point rise is called a rebound; if it rises back to 2354, then it is called a reversal.
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight
#SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge sparks controversy between two camps $MU bright trend
#MSFTCutsCapex $BTC #AIStoryDiverges
COIN MU ANALYSIS AND UPDATE NEWS THIS MORNING
1. Important Legal and Platform Notes
* Manchester United (MU) Club has not yet issued official Fan Tokens on any major platforms (such as Socios, Chiliz or Binance), unlike other big teams such as Manchester City (CITY), Barcelona (BAR), PSG or Juventus (JUV).
* Tokens bearing the name MU or MUFC currently circulating on the market are either unofficial tokens issued by the community or projects that are not owned by the club.
2. Market overview of MU tokens
Manchester United Fan Token (MUFC - Unofficial):
* Trading price (24h): Fluctuates around $0.00036 - $0.00037.
* Trading volume: At very low levels, liquidity is thin on decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
* Risk assessment: High volatility margin, poor liquidity and no collateral from the club.
Mu Coin (MU/Muverse):
* Trading price (24h): Fluctuates around $0.00094 - $0.00095.
* Market capitalization: Very small (about less than 10,000 USD).
* Cash flow trends: There is almost no cash flow from large funds or investors, gloomy trading.
3. Technical analysis and price dynamics
* General trend: Informal fan tokens do not follow standard technical analysis (D1/H4) due to a lack of trading volume and liquidity.
* Price volatility: Mainly depends on short-term scalping sentiment or pump & dump from small groups in the market.
#Fed3Dissents $ETH No matter how grand the design drawings are, the data from the concrete rebound tester in the structural engineer's hands is the only universal language—the foundation of Microsoft's cloud computing has already topped out with concrete pouring completed, and the $9 billion revenue with 18% year-over-year growth is the compressive strength report of that load-bearing wall; as for Meta, the $60.8 billion revenue sounds like a massive complex, but the free cash flow has dropped to a four-year low, clearly indicating that the foundation excavation phase hasn't finished grouting reinforcement yet, but they are already rushing to hoist prefabricated slabs upward.
The same AI story, two completely different construction schedules. Microsoft uses mature project management to turn the architecture into a super high-rise with the highest seismic rating—each layer of the cloud service has redundant design, load balancing, and disaster recovery plans, and the cash flow is like dry Portland cement. Meta is still working on scheme refinement, playing with a cantilever structure with capital expenditures between $130 billion and $145 billion—planning to finance and buy tower cranes based on a few renderings without first calculating bending moments or installing foundation piles? The project's cash turnover rate has already turned yellow: the burn rate equals a tower crane shift consuming half a ton of diesel, but the main structure's construction progress is stuck at zero and not moving.
Amazon and Apple are submitting design handover documents today. Who has already completed the basement waterproofing and MEP pre-embedding? Who is still arguing with the client about the curtain wall color? The market is not short of wildly imaginative architectural concept bids, but the ones that can truly withstand fifty years of strong typhoons are only those projects that use high-strength seismic rebar and C60 grade concrete starting from the foundation.
When cracks begin to spread at the load-bearing wall joints, even the rendering textures in the BIM model will peel off. #AIStoryDiverges 🔥Q2 2026 Earnings Review of the Four Major CSPs: AI Enters the Earnings Realization Phase, Hardware Investment Logic Shifts🔥
In Q2 2026, the four major North American cloud service providers delivered strong but deeply divergent results. The core judgment is: AI has fully transitioned from the “burning money phase” to the “earnings contribution phase,” but each company’s path to realization is distinctly different, triggering a chain reaction that is profoundly reshaping the investment logic for AI hardware.
Cloud business is booming overall, but with significant divergence.
Amazon AWS reported revenue of $42.2 billion this quarter, a sharp 37% year-over-year increase, marking the fastest growth in nearly five years. Backlog orders reached $496 billion, and AI chip annualized revenue surpassed $25 billion, demonstrating AI’s most direct driving effect on cloud business. However, the cost is equally staggering—quarterly capital expenditure hit $53.1 billion, and free cash flow turned negative due to heavy investment, leaving the market to struggle between the “growth story” and the “cash flow reality.”
Microsoft showed the most stable “top performer” stance. Azure cloud growth surged to 43%, with annual revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time. Copilot paid seats exceeded 30 million, and AI software monetization capabilities lead the industry by a wide margin. Crucially, Microsoft maintained $19.6 billion in free cash flow despite $41 billion in capital expenditure and guided next fiscal year’s capex around $190 billion, below market concerns, proactively reassuring investors.
Google was the biggest “dark horse” this quarter. Google Cloud revenue soared 82% year-over-year to $24.77 billion, operating profit jumped from $2.8 billion last year to $8.8 billion, and nearly 90% of Fortune 100 companies have adopted the Gemini model. Backlog orders reached $514 billion. But behind the dazzling growth lies the biggest concern—free cash flow turned negative for the first time, down to -$5.9 billion, prompting serious market doubts about how long the payback period will be for such high investment.
Meta is under the greatest pressure. Revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28%, is impressive, but net profit fell 14% year-over-year, and free cash flow plunged from about $8.5 billion last year to less than $800 million. Lacking external cloud business to absorb AI compute demand, relying solely on advertising for indirect monetization, Meta faces its toughest test amid massive capital expenditures.
What do these four earnings reports mean for the AI hardware supply chain?
At the aggregate level, demand remains solid. The four major CSPs’ total annual capital expenditure is expected to exceed $710 billion, with the global top nine CSPs’ total spending likely reaching $830 billion, a 79% year-over-year increase, and the outlook for 2027 remains positive. GPU clusters, self-developed ASIC chips, and next-generation data center expansions form the “iron triangle” of hardware orders, with no signs of demand cooling in the short term.
However, structural changes are more critical and are redefining investment directions.
The first change is the shift from “compute power expansion” to “return on investment.” Google’s negative free cash flow sounded the alarm, and CSP procurement teams are becoming more cost-conscious. Industry consensus now favors “model routing” to handle simple tasks with cheaper models and large-scale deployment of self-developed chips to reduce costs. Hardware solutions that help CSPs save money—liquid cooling, self-developed ASICs, efficient interconnects—will command higher premiums.
The second change is the increasingly complex source structure of capital expenditures. Some spending forms a closed loop of “chip manufacturer financing → labs buying compute → cloud providers buying chips,” creating internal circulation that external observers find hard to distinguish between real demand and financing-driven purchases. TSMC has clearly stated it will not participate in such arrangements, and if cash-rich storage manufacturers become “funders” involved in this loop, it will signal an industry risk escalation.
The third change is that industry chain profits are shifting from “price hike dividends” to “capacity expansion dividends.” DRAM contract price increases have narrowed from 90-95% in Q1 to an expected 13-18% in Q3, signaling the end of the high-profit era from storage price hikes. Instead, AI server demand is forcing ODM manufacturers like Foxconn, Quanta, and Wistron to significantly expand capital expenditures. Global semiconductor manufacturing investment is expected to grow from $168.1 billion in 2025 to $341.7 billion in 2028, and equipment suppliers are entering a clear capacity expansion benefit cycle.
In summary, the core contradiction in AI hardware is no longer “whether demand will stop,” but “who can prove return efficiency in this trillion-dollar capital expenditure race.” In the short term, demand for servers, GPUs, and data center infrastructure is robust, with a strong season ahead. In the medium term, investment logic is shifting from “mindless compute buying” to “careful ROI calculation”—self-developed chips, liquid cooling, and model routing for cost reduction and efficiency gains will receive higher valuation premiums. The biggest risk is that if the financing loop over-expands or more CSPs follow Google’s path with worsening free cash flow, market tolerance for hardware valuations will quickly narrow, and the first to be sold off will be upstream equipment stocks reliant on financing-driven growth.
AI hardware remains the strongest current industry trend, but the phase of easy profits is over, and the era of refined judgment has just begun. "Storage stocks surge collectively in a single day, is the massive trading volume driven by capital inflow or institutional sell-off?"
$SNDK
✨The entire storage sector has set astonishing gains and trading volume records. Can this hot market trend sustain steadily into next week?
Reviewing Thursday's US stock trading leaderboard, the most shocking detail was Micron taking the top spot in total trading volume.
Single-day trading volume reached $51.158 billion, with the stock price soaring 18.36%, instantly becoming the core target of market capital competition.
Following closely, SanDisk's movement was even more explosive, with a single-day gain approaching 26%, surging $264.07 in just one day.
$MU
The two leading storage giants jointly drove chip manufacturers to rally, igniting the entire US tech market's bullish sentiment in the AI storage sector.
🔹Sector Research & Market Logic💡
The origin of this rally stems from Microsoft's better-than-expected AI earnings report.
$SKHYNIX
Microsoft surged 15.51% in one day, marking its strongest single-day gain in 18 years.
Its "responsible" AI investment stance means companies will no longer recklessly spend on capital expenditures, significantly accelerating AI commercialization and profitability.
Cloud providers tightening capital spending and prioritizing activation of computing and storage assets directly benefit downstream storage chip supply and demand recovery.
Combined with Samsung's explosive Q2 results earlier, AI servers driving surging demand for memory and flash, expectations for storage cycle bottoming and rebound have been fully fueled by capital.
🔹Personal Trading Review & Insights📊
Watching the market closely, I did not rashly add to storage stocks chasing the rally. Looking back, impulsive chasing is the biggest trap for retail investors.
Just over a month ago, SanDisk halved from its peak, with many panicking and selling during the decline.
Now, a massive bullish candle has lifted it, and a large amount of FOMO capital rushes in, fearing missing the new bull market.
However, such massive trading volume often hides divergence; this huge turnover essentially reflects high-level trapped positions cashing out on the rebound, with short-term speculators passing the baton.
Long-term allocation funds have not made large moves at this point; the market is more speculative than value-driven.
🔹Capital Market Situation & Future Outlook📈
Sector differentiation remains very clear: computing power and storage hardware surge across the board, while social and consumer tech stocks remain weak.
Capital only chases hard assets that can support AI computing demand, avoiding platform companies where AI investments struggle to deliver profits.
The Fed's high interest rate environment shows no signs of turning; the premise of mid-term US stock market volatility remains unchanged.
Single-day sentiment-driven revenge rallies ultimately cannot completely reverse the cycle rhythm.
After Thursday's extreme euphoric surge, how should we distinguish between short-term sentiment rallies and the true inflection point of the sector? #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% #财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ $SATS $SATS Leveraged contracts are basically liquidated, right? Since its launch, Sats has been falling continuously. Based on some nationality-specific mindsets, they have been betting on rebounds and rises during the decline, but the decline is just a decline, with support levels broken one by one during the decline. No altcoin has ever been as recognizable and popular as SATS. If SATS is set to delist for its historical mission, then this coin is truly special. SATS has sold massive amounts on exchanges, but there are still a large amount of coins in cold wallets, held by individuals, and also on different exchanges. Can't buy out! Sales never stop; everything is a pre-scripted script. The probability of this coin being delisted is much higher than the probability of "power intervention and violent reshuffling." When SATS is delisted, is it equivalent to USDT 1:1 exchange, or is it a high withdrawal fee? We'll see when the time comes. At the same time, the most direct data is that since SATS was listed, OKX alone has traded 10.5 billion USDT, while the second-largest SATS wallet accounts for less than 20%. How much have other exchanges traded?The overall pressure pattern in the current market remains unchanged, and signals of weak stagnation have already appeared in the small-cycle sector. Although there is a short-term rebound, the upward volume and sentiment are insufficient, so the rebound lacks continuity and cannot break previous highs, making it difficult to open upside potential.
After multiple price surges with weak momentum, the market consolidated and oscillated within a high range, forming a "break without breaking" pattern. According to market patterns, if an upward move does not break through the resistance level, it is highly likely to pull back and weaken afterward. At the end of the week, market funds tend to cash out, which can easily intensify selling pressure. Therefore, Gao Kong, patiently wait for the support below to break down and move downward, and keep control of the key points and risk management.
BTC rebounded near 65,000-65,600, with a downside target of 64,300-63,300
ETH rebounded near 1930-1960, with the downside looking for 1900-1850