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存储龙头当下的行情，已经不能简单定性为普通反弹修复。
均线形态已经完成修复重构：20周期指数均线约1402，50周期指数均线约1332，1200周期指数均线约1343，现价已经全部站在各条均线上方。更关键的是，价格正在向上挑战200周期指数均线1413以上区间。前期1200‑1300长时间震荡沉淀出来的筹码密集区间，筹码重心正在向上迁移。
本轮上行具备放量突破的特征。自1200一带启动之后，成交规模显著放大。MACD指标DIF75、DEA51，柱状维持正值，代表短线向上动能依旧存在。但RSI‑6已经来到80附近，RSI‑12接近79，短线指标已经进入过热区间。
所以此刻最需要规避的，就是看见价格来到1550之后，受市场情绪驱动盲目跟风进场。
1598是第一处实质性压力位置。
倘若能够放量站稳1598，后续才有机会看向1650‑1750区间；倘若冲击1598收出长上影，并且回落跌破1455，很大概率会演绎利好落地、获利资金集中兑现回调的走势。
理想的走势推演：冲高触碰1598 → 回踩1455附近 → 成交缩量休整 → 再度放量向上突破。
当1455由压力位置转化为支撑位置，整套行情结构的可靠性，会远强于直接持续拉升。
基本面也为技术走势提供强有力的底层支撑。8月13日投资者沟通大会，企业公布全新长期经营目标：2028‑2030财年营收维持中高双位数增长，调整后毛利率目标接近80%；同时持续拓展长期合作订单，落地面向AI推理场景的高带宽闪存产品。
该企业的估值逻辑，正在从传统存储周期企业，逐步重估为AI基础设施、高性能存储硬件厂商。
接下来值得思考的问题：这条硬件赛道的热度，会不会外溢传导至链上相关资产？
这也是现阶段值得持续跟踪的关键点。
如果AI基建主线行情继续强化，可以沿着「AI算力‑数据‑存储‑去中心化网络」这条产业传导链条跟踪资金流向，不要看见个别品种短期暴涨就盲目跟风。
纳入观察清单的赛道方向：
1. AI算力与模型网络赛道，属于高波动弹性品种。不必在意单日涨跌幅度，重点跟踪上涨阶段成交量、持仓规模是否同步扩张。
2. 去中心化GPU渲染算力赛道，和AI算力产业故事直接关联。一旦风险偏好回暖，对比纯题材品种，更容易承接流入资金。
3. 分布式数据存储赛道，更加看重它的数据基建属性。硬件存储行业行情火热，如果市场开始映射AI数据存储产业链，它是值得留意的老牌标的。
4. 永久数据存储赛道，和AI海量数据增长存在业务逻辑关联。它未必是短期涨幅最高的品种，一旦开启存储赛道补涨行情，会拥有不错弹性。
5. 去中心化云算力赛道，属于风险等级更高的AI基础设施弹性品种。
个人观察优先级排序：
侧重产业研究价值：
存储硬件龙头 → AI算力网络 → GPU渲染算力 → 分布式存储 → 永久存储 → 去中心化云计算
博弈补涨轮动机会，可以重点看向：分布式存储、永久存储、去中心化云计算。
硬件龙头已经连续多个交易日走强，继续追高龙头的盈亏比已经下降。更值得观察的是，赛道资金是否开始向二线链上基础设施资产轮动扩散。
但现阶段并不能直接判定二线赛道已经有主力资金悄然布局。
盘面只能证实存储硬件走出明确量价突破，不能证明链上市场资金已经同步完成迁移。
想要确认是否存在提前布局的增量资金，后续需要持续观察：现货累计成交量、合约持仓规模、资金费率、平台资产净流入流出、大额地址持仓变动等多项指标交叉验证。
温馨提示：以上仅属于个人行业观察思考，不构成任何投资操作建议，市场波动风险客观存在。 SanDisk reveals its long-term trump card: how much longer can AI storage keep on this ride?
In the past couple of days, SanDisk announced its long-term financial and growth targets after the spin-off, causing an uproar once again in the entire memory chip community and tech stock community.
Some believe this wave of long-term target announcements is a typical case of all good news being exhausted, and when the stock price reaches a high point, profit-taking should be taken out; others think this is the starting point for AI storage to move from storytelling to scaled harvesting.
Many people have messaged me asking whether SanDisk's AI storage market can continue to rise after putting its long-term goals on the table.
Here is my core viewpoint for now: short-term volatility and shakeout in the storage sector are inevitable, but treating SanDisk's long-term target as the end of the market is most likely a serious underestimation of a quiet power shift underway in AI infrastructure.
Why do I say this? Once we clear the layers beneath the surface, you'll understand what the capital is really playing over.
The first layer is the structural bottleneck in AI computing power, which is shifting from simple "computing" to fully collide with the physical wall of "storage."
Over the past year or so, the entire market has been glued to NVIDIA's GPUs and SK Hynix's HBM. People always think that as long as there are enough computing power cards, AI can evolve infinitely. But when large models fully enter multimodality, ultra-long contexts, multi-agent real-time collaboration, and world models, all major engineering engineers have discovered a harsh reality: computing power runs too fast and storage can't keep up.
Massive dataset throughput, context caches of hundreds of thousands of tokens, frequent checkpoint storage during model training—if all are packed into expensive and power-hungry HBM and DRAM, even giants like Microsoft and Meta simply can't afford these electricity bills and costs.
At this point, large-capacity, high-efficiency enterprise-grade SSDs (eSSDs) become a lifeline that must be stepped up.
SanDisk's confidence in setting long-term goals of high gross margin and high growth at this time doesn't come from the memory cards or SSDs we usually buy, but from North American cloud vendors' frenzied purchase of high-density QLC eSSDs at the 64TB and 128TB levels.
The second layer is the fatal misjudgment of AI storage by traditional cyclical stock logic.
Many veteran investors are bearish on memory because they believe that memory chips have been a typical cyclical commodity over the past twenty years. Whenever Samsung, SK Hynix, or Micron expand production, the entire industry immediately engages in price wars, causing gross margins to plummet.
But this time is completely different.
Storage in the AI era is evolving from a standard standard for general plugging and swapping into highly customized data center infrastructure. To squeeze out that 10% inference efficiency, major companies require storage vendors to deeply customize firmware for their AI architecture's IO scheduling. Once this customized enterprise-level storage is launched and deployed in data centers, the cost of migration and replacement is staggering.
Moreover, the capacity expansion cycle for high-stack advanced processes is extremely long, and new factories often take more than two years from construction to mass production. Before 2027, the tight supply-demand balance pattern for global high-spec AI storage is nearly impossible to break through.
So, returning to the trading aspect that everyone cares about most, how should we view the market going forward?
In the short term, taking advantage of positive news to adjust positions, shake out trading stocks, or even clear out a batch of high-leverage long positions is a very healthy chip turnover. Never use leverage to chase short-term trades during emotional peaks.
But looking at the bigger picture, SanDisk's long-term goal is not a signal signal to withdraw, but rather to sound the charge for AI storage to officially move from the "concept hype phase" to the "hardcore performance realization phase."
The computing power frenzy will sooner or later encounter bottlenecks in the power grid and heat dissipation, and the storage pool that carries all human knowledge and silicon-based intelligent memory has a physical ceiling far broader than we imagine.
---
💬 Here's a question for those watching the market in front of your screen: facing the recent long-term guidance released by major storage giants, do you think funds will continue to cluster around highly elastic GPU computing power, or will they gradually shift their holdings to the memory sector, which has lower valuations and reshaping barriers? Share your holding ideas in the comments section.
The above content represents only personal perspective sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus Tonight's pre-market analysis of the U.S. stock market #SanDisk investors will focus on long-term goals going forward
Last night, the US stock market already sent a very clear signal:
Tech stocks have retaken the market.
The Nasdaq rose 0.81%, the S&P hit a record high, and the underlying logic is clear—the PPI cooled, U.S. Treasury yields fell, market concerns over a rate hike in September continued to fade, and AI performance and capital spending logic were once again priced in by funds.
So tonight, I still lean to:
Technology, AI, > overall market.
But note, today is not blindly chasing highs.
The four main lines I focus on most:
First: NVDA
Last night, it reached near $225, getting closer to the previous high of 236.54.
If tonight's volume surges and breaks through 228~230, there is a chance to continue pushing to 235~237.
But if it surges and then falls back to 222~223, don't chase short-term for now.
The truly strong structure is:
230 becomes support→ then look at 240.
Moreover, Nvidia's August 26 earnings report may be one of the biggest catalysts for the next phase of the AI market.
Second: SNDK + MU
This line has been too strong lately.
Last night, SNDK jumped 13.7%, and MU rose 4.2%, clearly showing that funds are spreading from GPUs to HBM, DRAM, NAND, and AI server storage. (Reuters)
So if semiconductors continue to be strong tonight, I will focus on the following:
SNDK: Strong momentum, don't chase highs, wait for pullbacks.
MU: If the volume continues to break previous highs, there may be further acceleration.
The AI market is no longer simply about "buying Nvidia."
Instead:
GPU → HBM → memory→ SSD → servers → liquid-cooled → data centers
The entire industry chain began to rotate.
Third: AMD
AMD's biggest highlight right now isn't how much it rose today.
It's about whether it has regained attention on AI chip funding.
If NVDA continues to strengthen tonight and AMD increases volume in tandem, the second tier of AI chips may continue to catch up.
AMD has broken through recent resistance levels with increased volume, and I will remain bullish.
But if NVDA hits a new high and AMD clearly can't keep up, it means funds are still concentrated in the industry leaders.
Fourth: AI infrastructure
Recent performances by Dell, SMCI, Lumentum, CoreWeave, and others all highlight one thing:
The market began to debate "how much AI really costs."
Instead of just hyping up models and GPUs.
This is actually one of the directions I am most optimistic about tonight.
Because as long as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta continue to invest in AI capital spending, GPUs, HBMs, servers, network equipment, and liquid cooling will continue to benefit.
So tonight, my approach is very clear:
The market is bullish, technology is bullish, and the AI main theme continues.
But after yesterday's big rally, the most likely scenario today is:
Opening with a rally→ profit-taking orders are realized→ then choosing a direction in the afternoon.
Therefore, I won't go all-in right at launch.
I'd rather wait:
If it doesn't break on the rebound→ take another hit.
The names to watch most tonight:
NVDA、AMD、MU、SNDK、AVGO、SMCI、CRWV。
Among them, my favorite remains the following:
NVDA leads the market, MU/SNDK provides AI storage elasticity, and SMCI/CRWV provides AI infrastructure elasticity.
In short:
As long as U.S. Treasury yields continue to fall and expectations for AI capital spending remain high, this tech market is not over for now.
The signals that truly require caution are not just a few points drops in a single day.
Instead:
NVDA failed to rally + semiconductor stocks collectively declined on heavy volume + the Nasdaq broke below the previous day's low.
If all three signals appear simultaneously, it is necessary to start preventing the AI sector from entering a round of profit-taking.
Tonight's key point is just one sentence:
Don't guess the top, focus on the dragon's head; Don't chase the first one, wait for a retest to confirm.The most interesting US stock-market competition right now may not be NVDA vs AMD, but Robinhood challenging the traditional brokerage model.
$HOOD was once seen mainly as a retail-trading stock, benefiting from strong activity in stocks, options, and crypto. But Robinhood is clearly trying to become much more than that.
It’s expanding into retirement accounts, cash management, credit cards, prediction markets, crypto, and tokenized stocks. The bigger goal seems to be putting users’ entire financial lives into one platform.
That puts $HOOD increasingly in competition with $COIN. Robinhood is moving deeper into crypto, while Coinbase is expanding toward stablecoins, payments, derivatives, and traditional finance.
$CRCL is also becoming part of this larger battle. If USDC becomes widely used for payments and settlement, the lines between banks, brokerages, and crypto wallets could become much less important.
The real challenge for HOOD is whether users will actually keep their assets on the platform during quiet or bearish markets. If people only return during trading frenzies, the business remains highly cyclical.
So I’m less interested in the next trading-volume spike and more focused on whether customer assets keep growing even when markets cool down.
In the end, $HOOD wants to be the all-in-one financial app, $COIN wants to become the on-chain financial gateway, and $CRCL wants USDC to power the money flow between them.
Different businesses, but potentially the same battle: which app becomes the place where young investors keep and manage their money.
#AIInfraEarningsWatch
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit I will retain the core market logic, strengthen the sharp, incisive style of a blogger, amplify the market contrast, the Fed's internal strife, and the conflict of asset differentiation, with more eye-catching language and sharper, more independent viewpoints.
Cooling inflation + weakening employment, Fed internal strife and backfire, the market has already set the tone in advance
This week's US macro data showed no suspense. The broadly weakening inflation and marginally loosening employment have directly exposed the Fed's hawkish disguise, making a September rate hike basically empty talk.
The data doesn't lie: CPI 3.5%→3.4%, core CPI 2.6%→2.5%, inflation continues to decline; PPI plunged sharply, year-on-year from 5.5% to 4.7%, core PPI fell to 4.2%, and inflationary pressure on the production side is fully released.
More importantly, the employment turning point has emerged, with initial jobless claims rising to 209,000, a continuous increase and a stronger-than-expected decline. Dual declines in inflation + loosening employment have resonated with triple easing signals, and the so-called urgency of rate hikes has completely disappeared.
But the most absurd scene always happens within the Federal Reserve.
The current Federal Reserve is no longer a unified policy institution, but a public arena of public debate.
Hawkish Hamack insisted on continuing rate hikes, stubbornly insisting that current monetary policy has no restrictions and must be forcibly tightened to curb inflation; Dovish Barkin directly refuted, stating that current interest rates are tight enough and there is no need to overdo it.
On one hand, they forcibly create hawks; on the other, they go with the trend, dovish the trend. The top leadership's positions are completely torn apart, each side is speaking their own way, with no unified judgment—purely ineffective internal strife.
Smart money never listens to the Fed's empty promises; the market always moves first, voting with their feet to prove all controversies wrong.
Short-term interest rate contracts have completely redefined pricing, with expectations for rate hikes this year basically cleared out. U.S. Treasury yields plunged across the board, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high, surpassing the 7,800 mark, and the rate-cutting trading market has fully kicked off.
Commodities simultaneously support the logic of cooling inflation: the geopolitical stalemate in Hormuz has yet to be broken, but market panic has subsided, the geopolitical premium quickly dissipated, WTI crude plunged over 2% to around $81, and Brent fell simultaneously, completely locking in the downward inflation trend.
The core trading truth right now: under the same macro narrative, the four asset classes have emerged from completely fragmented markets, exposing the fundamental differences in their underlying pricing logic.
U.S. stocks hit new highs strongly, precisely playing the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, with growth assets benefiting from easing expectations;
Gold is hovering sideways around 4380 at a high level and refusing to retreat, indicating that global safe-haven funds have not exited at all, and market concerns about the economic outlook persist.
Bitcoin remains unmoved near 63,800, directly proving that the crypto market is completely detached from macro pricing in the short term, and interest rate cuts cannot support the market; only personal capital sentiment and fundamentals dominate.
To sum up the truth: the Fed is still endlessly arguing, and the market has closed early.
The macro direction has long been clear: the rate hike cycle has completely ended, and the rate cut window continues to open.
Going forward, there is no need to rely on Fed officials' verbal trash, nor be swayed by short-term rhetoric. Once the major trend is set, the rise and fall of all remaining assets depends solely on their own fundamentals, and the divergence will continue.
$BTC $SNDK $XAU
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened $XRP fell to the psychological $1.00 level, with monthly active address growth diverging from stagnation in new addresses, reflecting that existing funds are trading at key support levels but lacking new capital to take over.
The market structure shows that the $XRP daily closed at $1.00, the lowest daily closing price since November 2024, and has accumulated about a 69% pullback from the January 2025 high of $3.30. This deep retracement establishes the continuation of the medium-term downward channel, with $1.00 evolving from phased support into the core structural point of the bull-bear contest.
On-chain activity shows significant divergence, with 35,700 daily active addresses, a 33% month-on-month increase, indicating active token trading within the network. However, daily new addresses remain around 2,260 with flat growth, revealing that network expansion has not simultaneously brought in incremental capital inflows.
In terms of driver ranking, friction from existing games takes precedence over incremental expansion's price pull. The stagnation in new address growth directly weakens the rebound's capital support capacity, making the $1.00 defense line highly vulnerable to the impact of existing exits.
Upside scenario: If $XRP stops falling at $1.00 and recovers $1.20 with increased volume, it will confirm the establishment of a structural double bottom. The trigger condition for this scenario is that new addresses in a day exceed 3,000, with a failure signal for the daily closing entity to fall below $1.00 again.
Downside scenario: If the daily chart effectively breaks below the $1.00 support, it may trigger a chain stamp among existing bulls, causing the price to enter an accelerated downward phase. The trigger condition for this scenario is a solid daily bearish candlestick crossing $1.00, with a failure signal for the price to quickly pull back above $1.05 within 24 hours.
Bearish logic failure condition: If the number of new addresses on-chain abnormally exceeds 4,000 before the price kicks off, the core assumption of missing new funds is broken, and the market structure will shift to a short squeeze pattern driven by new demand.
The most important variable to watch over the next 7 days is the stability of the daily closing price at $1.00 and whether new daily addresses can break through the 2,260 sideways range.
#高盛收购Neos, crypto ETFs are shifting to earnings competition. #CLARITY表决待定, SEC rules have not been implemented$SPCX The drop in SPCX yesterday was actually not surprising at all; it wasn't a sudden negative news at all, but rather a normal cooling after a short-term rally and overheated sentiment.
Look at the story in the long run, look at the mood in the short term.
The biggest problem with SPCX has never been a broken logic, but that at this stage, it relies entirely on expectations to support it. The company is expanding rapidly, investing heavily in AI computing power and aerospace R&D, with impressive revenue growth, but it is still in a phase of continuous cash burning. When the market is optimistic, the market is willing to offer high valuations and tolerate losses; but once market sentiment weakens, the first to be cashed out are these highly elastic, unstable profit sentiment targets.[When 'Cryptocurrency Is Dead' Floods Again
The top of a bull market is full of dreams, while the bottom of a bear market is filled with declarations of death.
Santiment has found that pessimistic terms like "dead, dying, over, finished" have rapidly increased in social media recently, indicating that retail investors' patience is nearing its limit.
And I believe that the more people believe that "cryptocurrency is dead," the market usually gets closer to an emotional bear bottom.
Because when the market is left with only disappointment, ridicule, and voices of exits, it means some weak players may be exiting; As soon as selling pressure gradually eases, a small amount of capital returning could lead to a stronger rebound than expected.
But being close to the bear bottom doesn't mean today is the lowest point.
Currently, $BTC is still fluctuating around $63,000, with spot ETF funds flowing in and out intertwined, and no clear institutional buying trend has yet to emerge. Even if BTC begins to bottom out, $ETH and other altcoins may not immediately rally.
So this is not a reason to buy the dip heavily or increase leverage, but rather to remind long-term investors: the market may have entered a phase worth watching and positioning in batches.
Do you think this is an area suitable for phased layout, or just another false bottom in a bear market?On the evening of August 13 Beijing time, Neutrl, a spot and futures arbitrage protocol focused on altcoins, suddenly announced that due to the impact on protocol reserves, minting, redemption, and other protocol functions have been temporarily suspended. Neutrl did not elaborate on the reasons behind the so-called "reserve impact," only emphasizing that this was a measure taken after consulting legal counsel to protect user interests and maintain order during the impact assessment. Neutrl also stated that the team will provide users with timely explanations of the processing process, and more information about the timeline and next steps will be announced once confirmed. Because the announcement came so suddenly and no effective clues were disclosed, community sentiment quickly shifted to panic, with various speculations spreading continuously on social media. Neutrl's Positioning and Unique Risks Simply put, Neutrl is a spot and futures arbitrage protocol built around altcoins, which you can think of as a version of Ethena for altcoins. Specifically, Neutrl buys locked altcoins in the private market at a discount, then uses perpetual contracts to hedge risk exposure, capturing returns such as price differences and funding rates between the two. Afterwards, Neutrl packages these yields into on-chain structured products and opens deposits to users, allowing them to directly participate in its arbitrage strategies—Neutrl's previously launched core products include NLP (Neutrl Liquidity Pool), and after users deposit assets,The recent storage-sector rally isn’t purely speculative.
✔ AI demand continues to boost HBM, server memory, and enterprise SSDs. Manufacturers are shifting capacity toward higher-margin products, keeping traditional storage supply relatively tight.
✔ Strong earnings from Hynix and Micron, along with SanDisk’s aggressive long-term targets, have pushed investors to revalue the entire sector.
That said, storage prices are still rising but the pace has slowed from Q1. HBM and server memory remain strong in the medium term, while additional flash capacity could start easing supply pressure by H2 2027.
I shorted $SNDK around 1542, mainly expecting a pullback after the huge rally. But the trend remains strong, with regular-session close around 1528 and after-hours price near 1570 on heavy volume. So I’m treating this as a short-term trade and won’t blindly add.
Key levels:
• 1580–1600: Major resistance
• Below 1520: Short thesis strengthens
• 1480 → 1450: Downside targets
• Above 1600–1610 with strong volume: Cut the short immediately
The bigger storage trend may still have room to run, but SNDK’s one-day surge looks overheated enough for a correction. Rather than trying to predict the exact top, I’ll focus on risk levels and wait for confirmation.
#SandiskLongTermTargets
#AMDLargestBondDeal
#StrategySellsBTCAgain July's CPI and PPI were both moderate, US stocks continued to strengthen, the S&P hit a new high, the Nasdaq rose about 0.8%, and AI hardware stocks like MU and SNDK also rose.
$BTC is still stuck between $62,000 and $66,000, with trading volume and volatility continuing to decline.
This shows that the problem is no longer just macro, but within the crypto community.
ETF funds are indeed buying, but miners, corporate positions, and trapped positions are also selling. The result is that while some take over, the price never moves.
Next, I'll look at just a few locations:
$63,000 is a box defense; if it falls, we must prevent further declines.
Only when it stabilizes between 64,500 and 65,000 USD will the short-term market be considered stronger.
Only when volume surpasses $66,000 and ETF inflows resume can one qualify to talk about a trend reversal.
I'm not in a hurry to guess the answer now.
The $6,000 in 2018 and the $20,000 in 2022 both traded sideways for a long time, making people mistakenly believe the risk has passed. In the end, what hurts people is often not a big drop, but the sense of security created by sideways movement.Beijing time August 13, 2026, 20:30, the US July PPI was officially released. The result was milder than market expectations: PPI month-on-month 0.0%, year-on-year 4.7%, lower than the market expectation of 4.9%, and significantly lower than the previous value of 5.5%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics also showed that prices for goods fell 0.7% in July, with energy prices dropping 3.1%, which is an important reason for the overall cooling of the PPI. According to the logic most newcomers are familiar with: Inflation cooling → Fed pressure easing → risk assets benefiting → BTC should rise. But reality gave everyone a lesson again. After the data was released, BTC did not immediately show the "big bullish candle" everyone imagined. As of tonight, BTC is still fluctuating around $63,600, with a daily range of about $63,267 to $64,047. This is actually the most important thing for newcomers to remember tonight: Positive news ≠ guaranteed rise. Why? Because market price trading is never just about "whether the data is good or not," but also includes: whether the market has already priced it in, whether funds are willing to continue buying, whether ETFs and institutional funds are following, and how everyone interprets the Fed's future policies. Sometimes the market has already risen before the data is released; sometimes the data is indeed good, but buying interest is still insufficient; and sometimes the surface looks positive, but the market is focused on other risks. So next time you see: "CPI lower than expected!" "PPI lower than expected!" "Institutions buying!" " Tether’s first full independent audit is more consequential as a governance milestone than as a snapshot of reserves. KPMG U.S. issued an unqualified opinion on Tether International’s 2025 financial statements, covering reserves, token liabilities, systems, valuations and counterparties; audited reserves exceeded liabilities by $6.814B at year-end.
The measured test now is repetition. If full audits become regular and disclosure scope remains meaningful, the impact could extend beyond USDT by raising the transparency benchmark for stablecoin issuers. One clean opinion strengthens credibility, but a durable standard requires consistency. Not advice, just analysis.
#TetherFirstFullAuditOption 1 — Best Default
PPI came in cooler. But don’t mistake “less hot” for “bullish.” 👀
US July PPI landed at 4.7% YoY vs. 4.9% expected, while MoM was flat. That gives the market a little breathing room and keeps rate-cut hopes alive.
But I’m not chasing the first green candle.
The real signal comes next:
• Are Treasury yields falling?
• Is the dollar weakening?
• Can $BTC hold key levels with real volume?
Macro data creates the expectation.
Price action decides whether that expectation is worth trading.
For now, this is relief—not a confirmed reversal. 📊
---option
Option 2 — Strong Hook
The PPI number looks bullish… but the market still has something to prove.
July PPI came in at 4.7% YoY, below the 4.9% estimate, with MoM flat.
Good news? Yes.
A reason to blindly chase BTC? Not yet.
The market may be pricing in softer inflation and a less distant rate cut, but expectations can move faster than liquidity.
I want to see Treasury yields fall, the dollar weaken, and most importantly, $BTC hold its key levels with volume.
Until then, I’d call this breathing room—not a new bull trend.
---option
Option 3 — Short & Punchy
Cooler PPI ≠ instant bull market.
US July PPI came in at 4.7% vs. 4.9% expected, with monthly PPI flat.
That’s enough to ease some pressure on risk assets and bring rate-cut expectations back into focus.
But I’m not buying the first green candle.
Watch yields. Watch the dollar.
Most importantly, watch $BTC volume and key levels.
The data opens the door. Price action tells us whether to walk through it. 📈
#DailyOrbit The Sandisk SNDK token experienced a strong rally yesterday with a complete logic behind it. Tokenized US stocks are high-risk derivatives; the following is only a market logic review and does not constitute investment advice.
The Sandisk token is an on-chain tokenized stock, with its price fully pegged to the US stock SNDK. The crypto market movement only follows the fluctuations of the US stock and is not an independent rally of a native crypto token.
US CPI data met market expectations, with no unexpected rebound in inflation. The market directly priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate hikes.
Pressure on risky tech stocks was relieved, with the semiconductor and storage sectors collectively recovering. The Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index strengthened simultaneously.
AI large model inference and data centers are explosively consuming NAND flash memory, causing tight industry supply and continuous price increases for storage chips.
Not only Sandisk, but Micron and SK Hynix also surged together. The entire storage sector experienced a collective rally, representing a sector-wide trend rather than an individual stock movement.
The token trades 24/7 without interruption. Pre-market and after-hours fluctuations of the US stock are directly reflected in the token's candlestick chart, with no gap for US stock market open or close. A large number of crypto traders entered to trade SNDK, and leveraged contract funds amplified the US stock gains, causing spikes and volatility more intense than the US stock itself.
Yesterday's violent surge of Sandisk SNDK was not driven by crypto whales but originated from the US stock market. With CPI data released and rate hike concerns lifted, combined with the company’s investors unexpectedly releasing forward earnings guidance, the AI storage sector logic was once again recognized by capital.
The token only follows the US stock, but with 24-hour crypto trading plus leverage, volatility is greater than the US stock. Remember, the positive factors are forward-looking expectations; do not blindly chase highs. If earnings reports fall short of expectations, the market can quickly give back gains.The reason behind SanDisk’s massive surge is becoming clearer, but unfortunately I was short and got caught on the wrong side.
SanDisk jumped as much as 17% overnight and closed up 13.67%, lifting the entire storage sector, with SK Hynix and Micron also rallying strongly.
1. Main catalyst:
SanDisk gave an extremely bullish long-term outlook, targeting double-digit revenue growth through 2028–2030, around 80% gross margins, and 50% free-cash-flow margins. It also plans to return excess cash to shareholders after capacity investments. Its AI-inference storage strategy, including growing flash demand and HBF technology, added further excitement.
2. Why the move was so strong:
The stock had already been heavily sold after earnings, leaving plenty of short positions. The new guidance triggered aggressive short covering. Softer PPI and stable CPI also improved expectations for liquidity, bringing money back into AI hardware. Long-term supply agreements are another factor, as they could make the storage business less cyclical.
3. Risks:
The rally is heavily event-driven, so profit-taking and volatility could be intense. The bullish targets are for the next few years, while near-term earnings guidance hasn’t changed much. Storage stocks also remain sensitive to Treasury yields and Fed policy.
4. What I’m watching:
Can SNDK hold the rebound high? Will SK Hynix and Micron continue confirming the sector strength? And what signals come from Jackson Hole and the Fed?
If SNDK loses the breakout level quickly, this could turn into another short-lived spike rather than a sustained trend.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit
#KoreaChipsLeadRebound
#SpaceX99%ValueFromAI Both CPI and PPI are a bit mild, SOL, don’t pin the rate cut script on the wall. Macro data loosened a screw, but it won’t directly pay for on-chain transaction volume.
First, turn down the speaker volume and see where the money is really going. I will watch stablecoin cross-chain net inflows and Solana DEX spot volume; if the money entering the chain doesn’t increase, the price jump won’t hold.
When interest rate expectations loosen, high-volatility assets often bounce first, but this is just the impact path, not an exclusive positive for SOL. Pullback support is like the next runner in a relay race; if the handoff isn’t steady, no matter how fast the previous runner ran, it’s all in vain.
If the price surges first but stablecoins don’t enter the chain, it might just be leverage crowding at the door. What would really make me change my view is if transaction volume holds after the pullback, not the screen suddenly turning green all afternoon.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and pay attention to risks. #$SOL $BTC
[On-chain Indicator Simulation: BTC's Classic 'Three-Line Crossing' Endgame Replayed]
Looking at BTC history, the relationship between STH Realized Price (short-term holder cost), LTH Realized Price (long-term holder cost), and the overall network Realized Price (actual cost) has always been the hardest on-chain signal of qualitative cycle bottoms.
Looking back at the three deep bear bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022, the market followed a completely consistent liquidation path:
1. The coin price continues to fall sharply, forcing short-term chasing chips to cut losses and exit, accelerating the STH cost line downward;
2. Surrender units are gradually shifting to long-term capital, and LTH cost lines are slowly rising;
3. Ultimately, the three lines formed a severe convergence and completed a death cross/adhesion crossover (STH falling below LTH/total network cost), marking the complete turnover of high-level chips and the official establishment of the iron bottom of the cycle.
Looking ahead to 2026, although the three cost lines are rapidly approaching, a final death cross has yet to form and intersect. The underlying logic of on-chain games has never changed—only when short-term holders experience thorough surrender and turnover at floating losses can the long-term bottom structure truly be solidified.
Based on past cycles, the three lines are very likely to repeat their historical trend and complete the final crossover. Enduring loneliness and paying attention to the final bottoming signal when the crossover completes is often the starting point for a new bull market to gather momentum.After reviewing the Hong Kong-licensed HKD stablecoin HKDAP contract, BlockSec pointed out issues such as invalid KYC revocation logic, insufficient on-chain verification of KYC proofs, and excessive concentration of high-risk privileges.
"Licensing" and "contract security" are not the same thing. Licensing addresses subject compliance, but code risks must be considered separately. If stablecoins really want to be made on a large scale of payments, managing permissions and synchronizing KYC status are more important than publicity.Crypto is in a strange spot right now: good US stock-market news barely helps it, while bad news can hurt badly.
CPI and PPI both showed cooling inflation, with July CPI at 3.4%, core CPI at 2.5%, and PPI easing to 4.7%. Rate-hike odds for September also dropped, yet crypto barely reacted.
$BTC remains around $64K, while $ETH is stuck near $1,870–$1,890, with $1,900 acting as strong resistance. Meanwhile, US stocks like $SNDK and SK Hynix are surging.
The difference is simple: crypto wants actual rate cuts, not just the absence of hikes. Until liquidity expectations improve, BTC may stay range-bound and ETH may remain capped.
My approach: Don’t chase BTC above $64K; look for dips near $63K. Accumulate ETH below $1,850 and avoid chasing above $1,900. Wait for the Fed/liquidity narrative to shift before getting aggressive.
#SP500Nears8000
#AIInfraEarningsWatch
#AMDLargestBondDeal 1. Among those who bought $BTC during last year's bull market, only 4.77 million coins remain, and 41.5% have already cut their losses 😂😂
2. Bitcoin's average trend index has hit its lowest point in the past two days, indicating a new direction is about to be chosen. Personally, I lean toward a decline
3. During the 2022 bear bottom, 51% of retail investors fled; During the 2018 bear bottom, 62% fled; This year, the drop is only 41%, so there should be another drop.
But I felt it wouldn't drop much, because the wave of bottom-fishing was already making me a bit nervous. I planned to start increasing my position when it dropped to 56,000.#AMD完成历史最大美元债发行: Raised $4.75 billion
AMD has launched the largest USD bond in the company's history, raising a total of $4.75 billion. The bonds were oversubscribed, institutional funds actively took over, and chip giants are officially ramping up leverage to prepare for the AI computing power arms race.
Multiple interpretations
1. Oversubscription of bonds represents Wall Street institutions' recognition of AMD's AI growth story, willingness to provide long-term capital. The company has ample ammunition to expand AI chip production, make strategic external investments, and repurchase maturing debt.
2. This is yet another signal of tech giants borrowing to increase their investment in AI. The global wave of AI capital spending continues, and the overall narrative of the computing power and storage industry chain is being strengthened.
3. Indirectly benefiting crypto AI and decentralized computing power sectors will bring emotional catalysts.
Don't just look at the positives
1. Borrowing money to expand does not mean delivering on performance. With rising liabilities, if subsequent AI capital expenditure falls short of expectations, it will bring interest pressure and make future financial reports more volatile.
2. The funds should be used for general corporate purposes, not entirely directly invested in AI; some will be used to replace old debt, so do not overly exaggerate positive expectations.
3. The positive news for the US AI sector is easy to "materialize," and the news does not necessarily mean stock prices will continue to rise. Most of the moves transmitted to the crypto market are pulse-like rallies with limited sustainability.
Personal opinion
AMD's bond issuance essentially leverages to bet on the long-term AI market. Institutions are willing to pay for it, indicating that the AI megacycle story is not over yet, but it is a medium- to long-term logic.
The crypto sector is just a catalyst for sentiment; don't jump straight into AI-themed coins just because of positive chip news in the US market.
Practical focus on tracking follow-up: downstream AI chip orders, changes in corporate gross margins, and stories need to be verified by performance; it's not suitable for short-term news chases. 📍 [Data Snapshot]
Last week, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs combined net inflows of $853 million, a multi-month high, with BlackRock IBIT contributing more than half. Institutional funds have been flowing in continuously for several weeks.
📉 [Price Feedback]
However, the market is almost "immune"—Bitcoin is limited to a narrow range of 62,000–65,000, while Ethereum is hovering between 1800–1900, with clear lack of upward momentum.
🔍 [Alternative Interpretation]
This phenomenon of "money delivered but not paid for much" is not new to the author: after multiple large-scale inflows in the past, it quickly shifted to net outflows, indicating that institutions currently only amusing themselves amid low liquidity and lacking retail investors following the trend. Secondary market support is weak, and most people are closely watching CPI and US Treasury yields, unwilling to bet early.
🧩 [Two-currency Character Differentiation]
· Bitcoin is more like a "stabilizer": institutions buy only to prevent a deep drop, not to drive the trend upward, so the downside is limited and the upside weak.
· Ethereum is a "high-volatility product": with strong liquidity and strong elasticity, once inflows slow down, the drawdown becomes even more severe; combined with the second-layer network ecosystem diversion, its independent market performance is further suppressed.
🚧 [Conditions for Breaking Through Bottlenecks]
Currently, incremental funds are only enough to support the bottom, not break the deadlock. To truly break through the key resistance zone, two forces need to work together:
· First, Ethereum inflows remain continuous;
· Second, macro data (inflation, interest rate expectations) provide clear signals.
⚠️ [Operation Tips]
In a volatile pattern, avoid impulsively increasing positions due to large weekly inflows—positive news is often quickly absorbed. The reality is: institutions are buried in accumulating shares, retail investors stand by and watch, and the market is stuck in a stalemate where it neither rises nor falls; patience is more important than courage. $ETH $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens #标普收盘再创新高, 8,000-point expectation heats up#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report takes the stage 🔍 Historical Market Review | History repeats itself, regulators delay the script repeating itself
1. Looking back: ETF approval delays have created a super bull market
Looking back at the market trends four years ago, a similar historical script is playing out again.
In 2023, the U.S. SEC continuously extended the review cycle for Bitcoin spot ETFs, with approval decisions repeatedly delayed. Market sentiment gradually faded from initial anticipation to numbness, eventually falling into overall pessimism, with many bearish on the subsequent rally.
However, major ETF issuers did not stop there, continuously revising their application materials and supplementing compliance materials for ongoing review. By January 10, 2024, the spot ETF was finally approved for implementation.
After the policy was implemented, the market exploded, with Bitcoin surging from the 40,000-point mark all the way to the 100,000 mark, and the entire crypto market experienced an unprecedented bull run.
2. Repeating the present: The Clarity Act retraces the old path of delay
Now in 2026, the same delaying trend has reappeared, with the core of this round being the Clarity Act.
The Senate first postponed the bill vote to the summer recess, directly putting the schedule on hold; then it was postponed until after the midterm elections, but still no news was made, sending signals of waiting and waiting, which closely mirrored the ETF approval routine back then.
History does not simply repeat itself, but market patterns and rhythms are always strikingly similar. Before all major regulatory policies are officially implemented, the market inevitably experiences a period of low and dark periods, with confidence continuously declining.
When ETFs were repeatedly postponed, the market was convinced institutional funds would struggle to enter in compliance; Now, with the Clarity bill vote repeatedly delayed, the market has become pessimistic again, believing that regulatory rules are hard to implement clearly.
3. Market Outlook: Don't rush to enter the market after a major rally
Often, policies are implemented without warning, and on a certain opening day, news of the market can immediately change dramatically.
Since the full scenario has already played out once before, this time it is highly likely to follow the same pattern. Don't rush to position your position after the market has started. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens with #标普收盘再创新高, expectations for 8,000 points heating up #闪迪投资者日后, making long-term targets the focus 8 月 13 日晚，聚焦山寨币的期现套利协议 Neutrl 突然宣布，由于协议储备受到影响，已暂时停止铸币、赎回及其他协议功能。
Neutrl 并未详述所谓的“储备受到影响”到底是因为什么，只是强调此举是在咨询法律顾问后，为维护用户利益并在评估影响期间保持流程有序而采取的措施。Neutrl 还表示，团队将适时为用户提供处理流程说明，有关时间安排及后续步骤的更多信息将在确定后公布。
由于此官宣来的太过突然，且官方没有披露任何有效线索，致使社区情绪快速转向恐慌，各种猜测在社交媒体上持续蔓延。简单来说，Neutrl 是一个围绕山寨币构建的期现套利协议，你可以把它理解为一个山寨币版本的 Ethena。
具体而言，Neutrl 会在私募市场以折扣价买入锁仓的山寨币，然后用永续合约对冲风险敞口，以捕捉两者之间的价差与资金费率等收益。
之后，Neutrl 会将上述收益打包为链上的结构化产品，并向用户开放存款，以允许用户直接参与其套利策略 —— Neutrl 此前推出的核心产品包括 NLP（Neutrl Liquidity Pool） 等，用户存入资产后，协议会将资金配置到相应的套利策略中，并通过铸造协议代币等方式让用户获得对策略收益的敞口。
去年四月，Neutrl 曾宣布完成 500 万美元种子轮融资，数字资产私募市场 STIX 和风险投资公司 Accomplice 领投，Amber Group、SCB Limited、Figment Capital 和 Nascent 等众多加密货币天使投资者参投，包括 Ethena 创始人 Guy Young 和 Arbelos Markets（最近被 FalconX 收购）的衍生品交易员 Joshua Lim。
由于模式上与 Ethena 高度相似，因此 Neutrl 也会存在与 Ethena 类似的底层交易平台风险，合约流动性风险，以及资金费率波动风险。此外，由于 Neutrl 所聚焦的资产是有着锁仓限制、波动性更大的山寨币，因此上述风险相对只更高，且还存在一层难以预料的交易对手风险（即锁仓山寨币的交易对手存在违约可能性）。去年 11 月 Neutrl 上线之初，由于协议收益率相对较高，加之积分计划给予的空投预期，该协议一度吸引了超过 2 亿美元的资金存入，但随着 DeFi 行业风险倾向的持续收缩，如今 Neutrl 的 TVL 已缩水至约 5330 万美元。今天 16点 测试的双币理财到期了，63,000 美元的低买
$BTC
成交了，其实这个时间我是有点纠结的，正常来说今天是最后一个交易日，一般周末的变化不会太大，正常来说如果希望收益最大化的话，挂 63,000 美元卖出是不错的，如果成交了我等于白赚了四天的利息，本金还不变，没有成交也是利息最大化的。
尤其是考虑到每逢周末川普都会做一些小动作，对于周末的市场并不友善，所以怎么都觉得 63,000 美元是个不错的选择，但下意识又觉得如果选择 63,000 美元的话，就卖的太低了，毕竟我认为下周回到 64,000 美元的概率还是有的，而且万一今天川普认怂了，那么晚上和明天的反弹应该也不错啊。
纠结了一下，最终还是决定按照自己原定的思路，在 65,000 美元挂卖出，损失的就是最近三天的利息，这三天利息如果选 63,000 美元还是不少的，但 65,000 美元就几乎没有了。
而且我自己的仓位也是下周一到期的 65,000 美元卖出，虽然已经挂单了，但还是有些纠结$BTC 【法老看盘】
法老直接说，AMD这47.5亿美元发债，不是缺钱，是在提前锁住AI基建的“入场券”。别的公司借钱是因为扛不住了，AMD借钱是因为账上躺着131亿现金，还想再借50亿，提前把未来几年的仗打完。
先看数据有多硬。
AMD刚完成公司历史上规模最大的美元债券发行，四档期限从3年到10年，合计47.5亿美元。10年期债券最终定价较美国国债高90个基点，比初始指导利差收窄了25个基点，说明市场不仅不怕AMD借钱，还抢着借给它。截至6月底，AMD账上现金和短期投资合计131亿美元，总长期债务只有32亿美元，资产负债表硬得一批。
那为啥还要借钱？
因为AI基建这场仗，拼的不只是技术，是谁能更早把产能锁死。AMD有8.75亿美元债券下个月到期，这笔钱大概率拿去还旧债，顺便把资金结构拉长。但真正目的是为AI业务扩张预留财务缓冲。公司正在密集落地AI投资动作，包括承诺向Anthropic投入最高50亿美元，将Helios AI平台部署到微软Azure云服务。
对比英特尔更说明问题。
英特尔选择股权融资200亿美元支持晶圆代工业务，AMD选择债券融资，一分钱股权没稀释。摩根大通、花旗、美银、巴克莱、摩根士丹利、富国银行全来了，承销团阵容里还有高盛、汇丰、法巴等共16家机构。华尔街用脚投票，看好AMD在AI芯片赛道上的增长确定性。
法老怎么看？
英特尔在借钱续命，AMD在借钱扩张。AI芯片市场的“军备竞赛”已经进入烧钱阶段，谁先拿到便宜资金，谁就能在产能、研发、生态绑定上多出几成胜算。AMD这次发债是投行对“AI芯片老二”的信用背书。对大饼来说，短期没直接影响，但AI基建的融资通道越顺畅，整个科技板块的风险偏好就越高，大饼作为风险资产迟早会被波及。
记住，好单子是等出来的。AMD这47.5亿，不是债，是算力扩张的弹药库。
关注法老，财富不迷路！$BTC $ETH $OKB #AMD完成历史最大美元债发行：融资47.5亿美元 The SEC's planned "Regulation Crypto" meeting was suddenly canceled, and the long-rumored crypto regulatory framework was delayed again; Even the market-anticipated tokenized stock "innovation exemption" was postponed again. Wall Street, the White House, and regulators are still arguing over how to implement specific rules.
To put it bluntly, the U.S. is not unwilling to do so, but rather wants to make it look more beautiful, but the parties have yet to reach an agreement.
Instead, Tether delivered some tough news to the market: the company behind USDT has finally completed its long-awaited "Big Four" audit, and KPMG has issued an unqualified opinion on its full 2025 financial statements. For a stablecoin with a circulating volume exceeding $180 billion, this move carries significant significance.
So what cares more about me isn't how long the SEC has delayed this time, but rather that the crypto industry is being forced to accept traditional financial practices.
US regulators are still debating whether to let people in, while leading crypto companies have already started proactively preparing themselves to resemble traditional financial institutions.
That's what I think is the real part to watch later on.Storage Trio Rally: AI Super Cycle Fuels Bullish Sentiment
The US storage sector has been on fire, with Micron $MU, SK Hynix $SKHYNIX, and SanDisk $SNDK leading a powerful two-day rally on August 12–13.
On August 12, all three jumped sharply, while other memory stocks like Western Digital, Seagate, and Kioxia also posted strong gains. South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix followed with major rallies as well.
Then on August 13, SanDisk became the main catalyst after revealing an extremely bullish long-term outlook at its 2026 Investor Day. The company expects strong revenue growth through 2028–2030, with gross margins around 80% and operating margins near 75%. Shares surged over 17% intraday and closed up 13.67%, lifting the entire storage sector.
Several factors are supporting the move, including softer US inflation, improving rate expectations, stronger storage-market forecasts, and institutional interest in memory-chip companies.
But the biggest driver is clearly AI demand. From HBM to enterprise SSDs, storage is becoming critical infrastructure for AI, especially as the industry moves from training toward large-scale inference.
This rally looks like a strong market signal that the AI-driven storage cycle could have much further to run.
And I’m still crying over missing the chance to sell my SanDisk at the top 😭😭😭
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit
#TrumpTruthAPILawsuit
#HormuzPressureRises 🔴 SK Hynix Books a ₩3.98T Derivative Loss — But It’s Not a Cash Loss
SK Hynix reported a ₩3.98 trillion accounting loss in H1 2026 tied to exchangeable bonds issued in April 2023.
The trigger? Bondholders exercised their exchange rights as SK Hynix shares surged.
But here’s the important part:
→ No actual cash outflow from the derivative loss
→ Treasury-share disposal gains largely offset the accounting impact
→ The loss mainly reflects mark-to-market accounting as the stock price climbed
In other words, the headline looks huge, but the economic impact is far less dramatic.
Strong stock performance can create strange accounting numbers.
$SKHY $SKHYNIX Currently, cryptocurrencies are showing signs of increased activity among altcoins, but multiple core data points indicate that the official arrival of the full altcoin season still requires key confirmation signals Signs of a technical breakthrough: Recently, the total market capitalization of altcoins has broken through key resistance levels, and the dominance of altcoins has broken a two-year downward trend, indicating renewed bullish confidence. $ETH and other mainstream altcoins outperformed $BTC, driving a short-term market sentiment recovery Liquidity has not been fully confirmed: Although some altcoins performed strongly, $BTC dominance remains above 60%, and funds have not spilled out of Bitcoin on a large scale into altcoins. Historical experience shows that a true altcoin season usually requires Bitcoin's dominance to fall below 59.63% or even lower Altcoin Season Index Below Standard: The core measure of Altcoin Season is currently around 39-40, far below the official altcoin season threshold of 75 points (meaning more than 75% of altcoins outperform Bitcoin). Facing this "turning point" market, investors are advised to adopt the following strategies: Distinguish between structural rotation and comprehensive breakouts: Currently, it is more like selective rotation in specific sectors rather than the "buy with your eyes closed" broad-based rally in 2021. Do not mistake local rallies for a full-fledged knockoff season Focus on confirmation signals: Focus on monitoring whether Bitcoin's dominance has actually declined and whether altcoin trading volume can stabilize during Bitcoin's consolidation. If Bitcoin weakens, altcoin trading volume quickly declines#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up
Just glanced at the US stock market close, the S&P 500 hit new highs again, 7798.99 points, surpassing 7800 points for the first time intraday. The VIX hit an intraday low of 14.39, a new low this year. This scene is so familiar it's a bit unsettling—does this seem like the same script around this time last year?
Let me share a few interesting points.
First, the driving logic behind the new high is different from last year.
The main drivers of this rally are cooling inflation data + falling oil prices. In July, the PPI was flat month-on-month, and the core PPI rose only 0.2%, both below expectations. The CPI the previous day also met expectations. Brent fell below $87, and WTI fell to around $81. With both inflation and oil prices falling, the market has directly priced in the Fed to continue pausing rate hikes.
But what really concerned me wasn't these macro data—it was earnings holding the market up, and valuations barely moved. Citadel released a report showing that the S&P 500's Q2 earnings per share growth rate was about 33%, the strongest level outside the post-recession recovery period. More importantly, while the index hit a new high, the 12-month forward P/E ratio was compressed from 23 times last October to about 20 times. Simply put, earnings are outpacing stock prices, not just bubbles. Rubner's exact words are "completely different from 1999"—although we should discount on his optimism.
Second, the 8000-point mark is becoming less and less like a dream.
JPMorgan just raised its year-end target from 7,800 to 8,000 on Monday, marking the second increase in two months. Currently, at least seven investment banks are eyeing 8,000, and Evercore ISI has given an optimistic outlook of 9,000. Forecasting market Kalshi's bet on reaching 8,000 this year has already reached 66%.
The gap between 7700 and 8000 is just over 200 points, less than 3%. At this pace, hitting 8000 in August is no longer a dream. Tom Lee previously predicted that August would reach the 7900-8000 range, and now it looks within range. Of course, we have to look at this prediction dialectically — when it's accurate, it's really accurate; when it fails, it's still a real turnaround.
But there are a few hidden dangers that need to be kept in mind.
One is that FOMO sentiment is indeed a bit excessive. The S&P 500 options call/put ratio has surged to 0.9, the most bullish in at least four years. Short-term call options skew has also soared to a two-year high. Many institutions are now not afraid of falls, but of missing out. At times like this, someone should step in and pour cold water on the situation.
The other is geopolitical and oil price uncertainty. The troublesome issue in the Strait of Hormuz has never stopped, and if oil prices surge again, inflation data may fluctuate again. How Fed Chair Washh interprets these data after taking office is also a variable.
Third, let's share some practical impressions.
Should I chase at this level or not? To be honest, I haven't really reduced my US stock-related exposure in my position, but these past few days I've been considering whether to do some hedging protection. Volatility near the new high is ridiculously low. The VIX is already 14.39, so buying a put as insurance isn't expensive—of course, this is just a personal habit and not a recommendation. If you lose money, don't contact me.
Storage chips really hit hard this time—SanDisk rose 13+ in one day, Western Digital and SK Hynix both dropped over 7%. But in optical communications, Coherent surged the day before and then dropped 8%—this sector is highly divided, so those chasing highs, be careful.
Oh, and gold, silver, and oil all fell together. Gold fell 1.32% to $4,350. Risk appetite was all directed at the stock market, and the main sector was heavily drained.
Finally, let me ask you a question to talk about.
The S&P is already at 7799. Do you think we'll see 8000 before the end of August? Should we keep adding positions and go all out, or wait for a pullback to decide? Share your thoughts in the comments and see if anyone else is as conflicted as I am. [Interactive Guidance]
(The above is purely personal rambling and does not constitute any investment advice, DYOR.) ）
$BTC 美国7月PPI环比持平，同比增幅从5.5%回落至4.7%，表面上延续了CPI之后的通胀降温趋势，但细节并没有标题那么温和。剔除食品、能源和贸易服务后的价格环比仍上涨0.4%，说明商品端降温的同时，部分服务价格依旧顽固。
市场因此减少了短期加息担忧，却没有获得足够证据提前交易降息。今晚零售销售、密歇根消费者信心和通胀预期还将公布，若消费继续强劲，PPI带来的宽松预期可能再次被削弱；若零售销售和通胀预期同步降温，美元与美债收益率才有进一步回落的基础。
地缘政治今天重新压过了通胀利好。美伊谈判没有取得实质进展，美国方面表示对伊朗港口的封锁可以长期维持，同时新的航母力量正在向中东靠近；霍尔木兹海峡仍未恢复正常通行，胡塞武装与也门政府军的冲突又增加了一条潜在战线。
换句话说，7月PPI里的能源价格下降属于过去，而海峡封锁带来的能源通胀风险属于未来。只要谈判没有重新启动，油价、美元和避险情绪就会继续限制加密市场的反弹空间。$SNDK SanDisk's strong outlook drove SK Hynix ADR up 7.29%, Western Digital up 7.31%, and Micron up 4.23%, with Asian storage stocks collectively rising.
This surge is essentially a vote by the market on the narrative that "AI-driven NAND demand is a structural change rather than a cyclical bubble"—the stock price plunged after the previous earnings report precisely because the market feared the cycle had peaked, and Investor Day happened to address this core concern.
⚠️ Memory chips are a highly cyclical industry. The experience of stock prices halving from $40 to $2,300 reminds us that if high growth expectations cannot be sustained, the risk of a correction is also significant.#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus
SanDisk's investor day directly pushed the stock price up. It rose more than 17% during the session and closed up nearly 14%, with SK Hynix and Western Digital both rising more than 7%.
The market's excitement is straightforward—SanDisk has provided a long-term financial framework far beyond expectations. From fiscal years 2028 to 2030, revenue will achieve mid-to-high double-digit growth, gross margin stabilize around 80%, operating margin 75%, and free cash flow margin 50%. The storage industry used to be notorious for its high cycles, but now SanDisk claims AI can completely smooth out these fluctuations.
Supporting this goal are several hard elements. Eight customers have signed long-term framework agreements covering about 50% of Bitcoin shipments in fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal year 2028. The total contract value is about $94 billion. HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) technology is also advancing, and tape-out has been completed. Capital returns are more direct—after completing business investments, 100% excess free cash flow is returned to shareholders, leaving $15.5 billion in existing buyback quotas.
But there's a key point to be clear. This long-term guidance doesn't contradict the logic behind the stock price crash after previous earnings reports. Last quarter's financial report was indeed explosive, but next quarter's median guidance was 10.55 billion, lower than the market expectation of 10.8 billion—down 12% in two days. Back then, the market wanted "How much can you earn now?" Now SanDisk is offering "How much can I keep earning in the future?" The answers to these two questions were completely different from the market's response.
SanDisk is working hard to prove that it is no longer the storage company that follows cycles. NBMs protocol, HBF, and AI-inferentially driven enterprise-grade flash memory TAM are expected to reach 1.2ZB by 2030—if this combination of assets is realized, it would indeed be worthy of a new valuation model. But whether long-term protocols can truly smooth the cycle remains to be seen. Goldman Sachs set a target price of $2,200, Bernstein previously gave $3,000—these people believed it, but their confidence was built on the 2028 figure, and no one could predict what would happen during those three years.S&P 500 New Highs, Storage Stocks May Have More Room
PPI, CPI and employment data are cooling together, easing Fed rate-hike pressure and supporting risk assets. With the S&P 500 breaking new highs, Citi’s 8,100 year-end target suggests the rally may not be fully priced in.
AI and storage earnings could provide the next upside catalyst.The previous selloff was driven by inflation and rate fears;those risks are now fading.
No need to chase.Focus on pullbacks.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 AMD’s $4.75B bond offering highlights a new dimension of the AI race: access to capital is becoming as important as chips, customers, and manufacturing capacity. Nvidia’s compute-financing ambitions and Intel’s planned equity raise reflect the same capital-heavy trend, though the risks are distributed differently.
Debt gives AMD room to finance infrastructure and capex without immediate shareholder dilution. The key question is whether AI revenue can grow quickly enough to support those funding costs. If not, balance-sheet strength could become an increasingly important factor in valuing AI companies. Not financial advice, just analysis.
#SandiskLongTermTargets
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced?
If crypto starts to be valued based on "revenue," $BTC may actually be the first asset to be misjudged.
🚨 Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently pointed out that crypto asset valuations are shifting from "market cap and narrative" to more observable metrics such as on-chain fees and protocol revenue.
This viewpoint sounds rational, but I don't quite agree with it.
Revenue can measure a company, but it may not be suitable for measuring crypto assets.
For BTC, the most important thing has never been how much it can earn in a year.
But rather, how much is the world willing to pay for these 21 trillion-yuan scarce assets?
Just as gold does not appreciate because global gold trading fees increase.
BTC's true value has never been about "how much money it can make," but how much the market is willing to spend to hold it.
Its core pricing logic is closer: scarcity, supply ceiling, ETF capital flows, global liquidity, US dollar credit, and store of value demand—this logic is completely different from traditional stocks.
Crypto really needs to value real data.
But this does not mean that all assets should be valued using the same method.
ETH can be considered income,
DeFi can calculate cash flow,
But BTC should answer even more: Why are more and more people around the world willing to treat it as a scarce digital asset?
So I don't think "revenue" will become the unified valuation framework for crypto.
It is more likely to apply only to a portion of assets.TruthSocial was sued for paid data streams, a situation far more serious than ordinary platform commercialization.
If it's just selling social data, it's not a big problem. But when the president frequently posts tariffs, military, regulatory, and market-related content on the platform, and financial institutions can pay to get data streams faster, things go wrong. Information should have been made public at the same time, but it turns out that whoever pays gets to see it first.
This is not a minor feature; it is a matter of market fairness.
High-frequency trading only takes a few milliseconds of advantage; if policy news comes just a little earlier, it could turn into money. What's more sensitive is that the platform has vested interests with Trump himself, which mixes "official information" with "private monetization."
I think what these lawsuits really ask is: Is the president's market-sensitive information considered public information, or can it be packaged by companies as data products?
If the answer is vague, every future policy release will carry a shadow of trading.
#特朗普因TruthSocial付费数据流遭起诉 SNDK is already in the spotlight; for AI, I'm more focused on MRVL and LITE
I've always told everyone to go long on SanDisk and long on Mywell, but I still don't think the AI market is over.
But now, the most important thing is no longer to "keep chasing the strongest," but to look for the next earnings forecast gap that hasn't fully priced in yet.
SNDK has risen about 13.6% in a single day, showing a strong trend, but chasing it further from the current position clearly results in lower odds than before the start.
In the next phase, I will focus on MRVL.
Marvell's revenue last quarter was $2.418 billion, up 28% year-over-year; The company's median Q2 revenue guidance reached $2.7 billion, up about 35% year-over-year, and clearly stated that AI-related orders are strong and data center business will continue to drive growth. The August 27 earnings report will be the next key verification.
LITE is also worth continuing to follow. The latest quarterly revenue was $1.006 billion, +109.3% year-on-year, with the median guidance for next quarter rising to $1.25 billion. The AI optical internet market remains very strong.
My approach is simple:
AI is not over; it has only moved from the rally chasing phase to the "performance verification + expectation gap" phase.
SNDK has proven storage; next, it will be a matter of which MRVL or LITE delivers the next performance that exceeds expectations. $SNDK $LITE #闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus $DOS DOS/USDT
● Current price: 0.2662 USDT (-4.14%)
● Trend Analysis:
● Sharp Sell-Off, Is All the Good News Exhausted? DOS was the biggest dropper on the list, exceeding 4%. Combined with the "Trading Points 1.35 million DOS Prize Pool" event shown at the top of the screenshot, this is likely a typical "event-end selling pressure" or "mining sell-off" market.
● As airdrops or reward events draw to a close, participants often concentrate on selling for profit, causing sharp price fluctuations.
● Trading advice: Never bottom-fish.
● Strategy: This decline caused by the end of an event often has inertia. Don't try to catch the knife; wait for volume to shrink and prices stabilize before making any plans. #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen "Bottom-fishing $BTC, digital gold will take over."
Don't rush to pick sides.
Because on the same day, an SEC filing exploded—
The Bank of Korea bought gold for the first time in 13 years.
In the second quarter, the Bank of Korea bought 679,765 shares of the SPDR Gold ETF, with holdings valued at $250 million.
What does that mean?
The last time this central bank touched gold was in 2013, after buying 20 tons of physical gold, it hasn't touched it since. For 13 years, it ignored it and suddenly took out $250 million to buy a gold ETF.
And this is just the beginning.
The Bank of Korea has already stated it will establish a new mechanism to purchase domestic refined gold from South Korea—the first time in nearly 60 years.
Translated into plain language: Koreans not only came back, but also prepared to stay long-term.
Some say, "Only $250 million, nothing." ”
You're wrong.
In the second quarter, global central banks made a net purchase of 289 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 62%. The People's Bank of China increased holdings for 21 consecutive months, with a monthly purchase of 640,000 ounces in July.
45% of surveyed central banks expect to continue increasing holdings over the coming year.
The Bank of Korea's 250 million is not an isolated event. It is the latest vote from global central banks collectively "voting with their feet."
Now, back to the BTC you hold.
The LBMA survey shows analysts' median year-end gold price forecast is $4,500. The most optimistic outlook is $7,150.
Gold is fluctuating around 4350, with global central banks providing a bottom below. If it drops a little, someone will buy a bit.
What about BTC?
If it drops a bit, you're waiting for a rebound. If it drops a bit more, you're waiting for the 'digital gold' narrative to save you.
But the problem is—the central bank buys gold, not BTC.
The recent three-year rally in gold has been mainly driven by buying by central banks worldwide. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ownership remains concentrated in individual hands.
One is sovereign funds holding the space, the other is retail investors enduring the crisis.
Who do you think is more stable?
To put it bluntly:
The title "digital gold" is not even a footnote in the eyes of the central bank.
You buy it like gold, but others sell you as a tech stock.
Global M2 has hit a historic high, but Bitcoin has not responded at all. Because the money went to gold—the "number" truly recognized by the central bank, the "real" of physical gold, not the "digital" of Bitcoin.
Behind this round of gold rally is global central banks voting with real money—investing in physical assets and hard currencies not controlled by any single government.
Bitcoin tells the same story.
But storytellers and those who buy stories are two different groups. #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens 4.77 million $BTC—this is the remaining chips held by those entering in 2025. Last December, it was 8.15 million, down 3.38 million in eight months.
Every missing one means a cut-off order.
Why did it fail after four attempts at 64,000? Because the average cost for this group was between 67,000 and 70,000. Every time the price rose a bit, someone would slap their thigh, saying, "Finally, I lost a bit," and then hit the sell button. 4.77 million coins, at the current price, would be worth $300 billion. This group is currently the biggest potential selling target in the market.
But interestingly, before February this year, shares fell rapidly, and after February, the pace clearly slowed down. Most of what needed to be cut has already been cut; the rest are either holding their ground or simply not caring about these fluctuations in their allocations.
Compare history: at the bottom of the 2022 bear market, chips at the 2021 peak dropped by 51%. At the bottom of the 2018 bear market, at the 2017 peak, chips dropped by 62%. How much is it now? 41%。
There may still be 10% to 20% room before the real bottom chip turnover. Converted to the number of tokens, it will probably take another 500 to 1 million more to digest it. At the current pace, it will take another 2 to 3 months. In other words, October to November may be the window for this batch of tokens to be completely cleaned out.
Only then will the pressure of 64,000-65,000 truly disappear.
Before this, every time it rebounded to around 64,000, someone would want to exit.The US stock market has become increasingly interesting recently. You'll find that AI hasn't died down, but funding is no longer the same as before, pushing GPUs, optical modules, cloud computing, storage, and software all upward. Instead, a very obvious phenomenon has begun: after the price rises, funds move away; After cloud cash-out, funds are transferred to storage; When hardware overheats, software is instead re-examined. This is not the end of the AI rally. On the contrary—AI is moving from "believing the story" to the second stage of "calculating profits." On August 12, Optical Communication was the first to provide an answer. Lumentum's latest quarterly revenue reached $1.01 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 109%; More importantly, the company has set its next quarter revenue guidance at $1.225 billion to $1.275 billion, with a median of about $1.25 billion. The demand for high-speed optical connectivity in AI data centers is moving from industry expectations to financial statements. On the same day, AI Cloud continued to prove that computing power demand has not declined. CoreWeave's Q2 revenue reached $2.575 billion, up about 112% year-on-year; As of the end of June, the Revenue Backlog had reached about $104 billion, and this figure doesn't even include the more than $25 billion in customer commitments added at the start of the third quarter. Nebius is even more exaggerated. Q2 revenue was $582.3 million, up 454% year-on-year, with AI Cloud revenue reaching $575 million, up 514% year-on-year; The company also disclosed that in 2026,The BTC spot ETF data for August is quite interesting.
In the first three trading days, net inflows were $626 million, IBIT alone consumed $479 million, with cumulative inflows approaching $61 billion.
However, on August 13, the ETF had a net outflow of 1,132 BTC, about $72 million, and a net outflow of 202 BTC for the week, about $12.9 million
On the same day, UBS's Q2 13F filing was released, confirming an injection of nearly $90 million into IBIT.
They were retreating while advancing, and both the evacuation and entry were institutions!
What does this indicate?
It's not a collapse of confidence, but a rebalancing of positions.
The funds entering in July were taking profits, new funds were borrowing back to build positions, and chips shifted from short-term to long-term holdings.
Add another detail: since August, ETFs have not experienced two consecutive days of net outflows, which is clearly different from the back-and-forth market in July.
The essence of ETF fund divergence is institutions adjusting their pace, not exiting. The underlying logic behind IBIT's continued fund inflow hasn't changed—institutions that treat BTC as an asset don't change their judgment just because of a single day of outflow. A pullback is their window to add positions; retail investors shouldn't let single-day data lead their pace.
$BTC #CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened ETH는 1830까지 후퇴하는 밤을 맞고 있다 1830은 과거 실수요가 몰렸던 지지대인가, 아니면 손절이 쏟아지는 빈 지지대인가? 원문 게시물은 단기 보유자가 1830 하락을 예상하면서도 여전히 롱 포지션을 유지 중이라는 점을 보여준다. 핵심은 이 포지션이 실수요인지, 패시브 배분인지, 아니면 단기 투기 자금인지 구분하는 일이다. - 시장 구조: 게시물 작성 시점 기준 ETH는 하락 추세를 시작했고, 작성자는 1830을 당일 목표로 설정했다. 이는 1800대 중반이 단기 지지선으로 인식되고 있음을 의미한다. - 포지션 행동: 작성자는 "오후에 익절할지 고민했지만 유지했다"고 밝혔다. 이는 이미 수익 상태의 트레이더가 추가 하락을 예상하면서도 청산을 미루는 전형적인 단기 투기 자금의 행동 패턴이다. - 기대 차이: 작성자는 "폭풍 전의 고요함"을 언급하며 하락을 기정사실화하고 있다. 시장이 이미 하락을 예상하고 있다면, 이 예상이 가격에 반영된 후 실제 변동성은 예상보다 작을 수 있다This looks more like a cautious risk reset than a crypto-specific break. BTC at $63,358.7, ETH at $1,884.3 and SOL at $75.89 are all down less than 1% over 24 hours, a notably synchronized move.
With the S&P 500 nearing 8,000 while the Fed outlook remains split, I would treat resilience in equities as selective rather than broad. AI infrastructure and Korea’s chip rebound may support sentiment, but delayed CLARITY Act and SEC rules leave crypto without a clean policy catalyst. My bias is neutral until BTC shows firmer relative strength.
Just my read, not advice.Those who bought BTC in 2025 are now all underwater.
The on-chain data is clear—there are still 4.77 million BTC purchased in 2025 in holding addresses, down 41.5% from the peak last December. Except for wallet transfers, the rest are all sold at a loss. Average price is 65,000-70,000, but now BTC is only 63,000-64,000, with an average loss of $2,000-5,000 per coin.
What does this mean?
4.77 million BTC, at the current 63,000, is worth about $300 billion. The average cost of these tokens is between 67,000 and 70,000, with current floating losses of about 5-10%. Every 1% increase means more positions get close to breaking even, and then they face selling pressure. The reason the 64,000-65,000 has failed to break even four times is because too many people are stuck in this range.
There was still one more debt to settle.
This figure of 4.77 million coins, last December's peak was 8.15 million coins, a decrease of 3.38 million coins in eight months. Excluding internal exchange transfers and wallet consolidation, at least 2 million tokens actually sold at a loss, about $130 billion in sell orders were digested. For every transaction absorbed, there is one less new counterpart position.
Of the remaining 4.77 million tokens, how many are held by living people, how many are dead addresses, and how many are institutional allocation accounts—no one can say for sure. But one thing is certain—the average cost for these people is between 67,000 and 70,000. At 64,000, they won't make money and won't sell. But once it rises to 67,000, these tokens will become pressure.
What impact will it have on the market?
In the short term, 4.77 million tokens are a volume holding onto the ceiling. The 64,000-65,000 level was broken four times but failed, mainly because the trapped positions in this area were not fully absorbed. The market needs time; either it holds sideways until these people can't hold back and cut losses, or they either release large amounts and rush straight in.
ETH and SOL are the same, just without on-chain data quantification. Buying ETH in 2025 costs an average of 2000-2200, now 1880, still losing money. Buying SOL costs 90-100, now 76, even worse.
It's not that a bull market hasn't existed; it's just that those entering in 2025 haven't enjoyed it yet.
These people either cut losses and exit or recoup their losses. For the market, every less trapped position sold at 64,000 reduces resistance to breakouts. On-chain data doesn't lie—chips are declining, selling pressure is exhausting. But it will take time before everything is fully digested.
Order trading approach:
At BTC, you can place orders in batches: one each at 63,000, 62,500, and 62,000. Don't rush around; wait for the chips to be digested before making a move. Don't add positions before 64,000 breaks through with increased volume.The most expensive mistake on the board isn't the moment of checkmate, but when you mistakenly think your opponent has revealed all their cards.
Tether's move today was not an ordinary move, but a belated king's rook cast. KPMG's unconditional opinion was like suddenly moving the king into a safe zone in the middle game—on the surface, it was a strategy statement. The 6.814 billion surplus of piece power on paper essentially tells all opponents watching this game: I have more resources than you imagine. Keep trading pieces, I'm not afraid of consumption.
But I never trust a single board chart. Unqualified opinions cover financial statements, reserves, token liabilities, systems, valuations, and counterparties, but the depth of the board is never in these explicit entries. The real experts look at the pace of the audit—if the audit isn't renewed next year, that's a one-time lure; If quarterly updates become routine, it shows the move isn't just a temporary step. The market is just such a seasoned opponent—it won't change its defensive plan just because you seem reasonable. It will force you to make five consecutive moves before admitting your advantage.
Looking back at the entire game of USDT. From a scarce gambit to today, watching his endgame from the edge of the entire board. Excess reserves are the thickness of the pieces, but thickness does not equal the initiative. Having pieces in hand does not mean you know how to exchange them. The opponent's list, the scale of disclosure, the caliber of audits—these are the detailed accounts that determine the difference between theory and actual play. A clear score after one move only proves your calculations were accurate in this match, not that your treasury hides no blind spots you want to cash out next.
Those who are a pawn ahead in the middle often mistakenly believe they can safely simplify things. But simplification itself is a form of exchange. Tether earned a market nod with an audit; whether this exchange is worth it depends on how the market responds in the coming months—whether the public will make this transparency routine, and whether regulators will continue to force more trump cards along this line. Every new announcement is a new stepping stone.
The way I checkmate you has never been with that move or move before, but with all the deep calculations that reshuffled the previous move and reshuffled the piece. USDT placed the first audit at the center of the board, so the whole world could see the shape of this piece, but only the opponent understood the player's expression.
Make a move—this game hasn't reached the endgame yet #tetherfirstfullauditThe whale is in the bag, $SNDK is going to give up?
I just saw a very interesting movement.
The whale cleared all long positions from SKHX and SNDK, pocketing 186,000 USD.
If he had managed to reach this morning's high, theoretically he could have earned an extra 1.385 million USD, but he didn't do that.
The key point is, after clearing the long position, he turned around and shorted SNDK at 10x value, averaging 1553, with a position value of 3.9 million U and a liquidation price of 1936.
Currently, SNDK is near 1560, and 1560-1580 is the pressure zone I focus on.
With high volume surging and pulling back at high levels, profit-taking is starting to be realized, and combined with the whale's reverse bearing, these signals are stacked together, and I really don't want to chase too much.
But I won't chase shorts right now.
My plan:
Rebound to around 1580. If it doesn't surge, then consider shorting, targeting 1500 first.
#闪迪投资者日后, long-term goals become the focus