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This breakthrough rally in SanDisk was combined with two positive factors, clearly showing FOMO sentiment. First, a positive PPI boost; second, internal news from SanDisk, which returns 100% of profits to shareholders. The combination of these factors has driven FOMO sentiment. I believe this kind of rally is not very healthy, so it's highly likely that around 1580, the bulls will start to exhaust and pull back. This round of rally is clearly a turnover of trapped and FOMO stocks, waiting for subsequent market declines and adjustments to return to normal bubble prices.Treasury narratives are not a protective charm, and floating losses won't disappear just because of the word "institutionalization."
Metaplanet disclosed that as of the first half of June 30, its Bitcoin holdings had an unrealized loss of $1.15 billion, and still held 43,000 BTC at the end of the quarter.
Market divisions are also very direct: on one hand, large listed treasury companies continue to hold coins, indicating that the institutional BTC narrative has not yet faded; On the other hand, widening floating losses have put pressure on adding positions at high levels and margin buying models.
For traders, the focus is not on sentiment but on whether these treasury companies can continue to raise funds and increase holdings. Once funding sources tighten, structural buying expectations for BTC may be repriced.
Source: PANews
#BTC #Crypto100WLet's review the changes in the overall crypto market landscape after the overnight CPI release.
The US July CPI data fully met expectations, showing moderate inflation cooling. The previously biggest concern—unexpected inflation and the risk of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again—has been temporarily alleviated. The largest macroeconomic negative factor has landed.
To clarify the logic simply: expectations for rate hikes have cooled, US Treasury yields and the dollar have weakened, and liquidity pressure on risk assets has eased. For the crypto space, the risk of continued deep declines has been locked in.#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI $SNDK SanDisk finally secured the net this round. Entry was about $1,390, with a peak of $1,590, ultimately locking in about +48U / +61%. 📈💰 This time, it's not just sentiment boosting; Investor Day's message is indeed strong: 🔹 BiCS10: bit density up about 58% FY2028 🔹–2030: target gross margin close to 78% NBM 🔹 long-term contracts continue expansion, with about $91B locked in potential order value 🔹. Wall Street target prices are still expected to be raised, and if performance continues to materialize, valuation space may reopen 🚀. This deal is now closed. The money you earn is what truly belongs to you. The market always has another opportunity; there's no need to risk it for the last candlestick. 🎯 🥇 --- $XAU Gold | Short-term cooling, waiting for a more comfortable position Gold experienced a significant pullback today, dropping more than $30 intraday before retreating from near its highs. The driving force behind this remains: 🇯🇵 changes 💴 in Japanese policy expectations, rapid strengthening 💵 of the yen, US dollar index climbing back above 100 📉, short-term profit-taking in precious metals beginning to cash out. My approach hasn't changed: don't chase highs, wait for pullbacks. If gold returns to around $4,180, I will focus on structure and volume before deciding whether to participate. Before confirmation, it's better to miss out than to take a hard dipThe $OKB Bet Was Never Just About the Token
When I went to Hong Kong for an event this April, a lot of people asked me why I was so bullish on $OKB.
At the time, $OKB was around $83.
My answer was simple: RWA.
And by RWA, I mainly meant one thing — bringing US stocks on-chain.
Back then, many people thought $100 was already a big target. I saw it differently. I believed $100 could be just the beginning.
Now, that thesis is starting to become reality.
The US stock trading depth on X Layer is connected to the depth of the OKX exchange. When traditional assets are brought on-chain, the corresponding amount of stock tokens needs to be mapped on-chain — with liquidity and trading depth that can actually support the market.
That creates a much bigger opportunity than simply speculating on another token.
This isn't meme PvP.
It's the convergence of crypto exchanges + RWA tokenization + stablecoins + perpetual contracts.
If this model scales, traditional brokers may eventually face a completely different competitive landscape.
That's why I've never looked at $OKB as just another exchange token.
The real story is what happens when an exchange becomes a financial infrastructure layer.
And honestly, I still think we're early. 🚀
#OKB #RWA #XLayer #Crypto #财报观察员
#DailyOrbit Front-end entry risk disrupts short-term preferences, protocol underlying operations remain intact, and the pressure from long deleveraging and trust discounting form the current core contradiction.
Search ad phishing resulted in a loss of about $550,000, directly triggering high-frequency traders' vigilance about the security of authorization, increasing short-term risk-off selling pressure.
The driving factors for trading table pairs are ranked as: risk appetite cooled due to weakened risk control expectations> proactive liquidation by retail investors> and reduced front-end liquidity due to capital transfers.
The remediation scenario assumes the fake site is quickly cleared out without any new outflows. If the malicious site is quickly removed without follow-up fraud, the discount rate will narrow rapidly, and $HYPE bullish defense will regroup; But if multiple points of continuous fraud occur, the repair logic immediately fails.
The downward scenario is driven by the resonance of increased victim funds and secondary withdrawals. If fraudulent addresses continue to receive victim transfers in the future, extreme risk aversion will dampen traders' willingness to take over, triggering a chain of long positions to close out; If the official system completes multiple risk control verification covers in a short time, downward pressure will be greatly alleviated.
The threshold for expiration depends on whether the scale of capital losses has stopped. If the loss amount remains at $550,000 and there is no spread, the market focus will shift from safe discounting to trading volume fundamentals.
The most important variable to watch in the next 72 hours will be the flow of funds from fraudulent addresses and the progress of clearing fake search portals.
#Anthropic加快IPO进程, AI valuation has entered the validation #特朗普因TruthSocial付费数据流遭起诉🚨 WALL STREET SHORT SQUEEZE SPILLS INTO CRYPTO 📈🔥
U.S. equities just delivered a powerful risk-on signal, and crypto quickly picked up the momentum.
Softer PPI and jobless-claims data strengthened expectations for easier Fed policy, pushing Treasury yields lower and forcing crowded shorts in heavily positioned tech and storage names to cover.
Then the liquidity rotation reached crypto.
🟠 $BTC stabilized as selling pressure eased.
🔵 $ETH showed stronger resilience, helped by renewed attention around institutional and ETF demand.
Meanwhile, stock-linked tokens such as $xSNDK and $xSPCX surged as traders chased the renewed connection between traditional equities and on-chain markets.
But there's an important distinction:
🔥 Major assets are attracting broader liquidity.
🎰 Small-cap memes are still seeing mostly speculative bursts.
That means the move shouldn't automatically be interpreted as a full-blown altcoin rotation.
The bigger signal is the macro transmission:
Softer data → lower yields → weaker rate pressure → short covering → stronger risk appetite → crypto support.
👀 The next test is whether this momentum survives after the initial short squeeze fades.
If yields remain contained and spot demand follows the derivatives move, today's rebound could develop into something larger.
If not, the market could simply give back the squeeze.
Don't chase the first candle. Watch the liquidity behind it.
$BTC $ETH $OKB $SOL
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #AIInfraEarningsWatch On the daily (1D) chart, xMU experienced a sharp dip down to the $XMU 723.69 support level at the start of August 2026. Since that low, the stock has staged an aggressive comeback. Moving averages (MA5, MA10, and MA20) are starting to cross upward, and the latest large green candles show strong buying pressure driving the price toward the $XMU 978 resistance zone.
Historical Context: Old Ups and Downs
Looking at historical market movements helps put this setup into perspective:
Previous Highs: Earlier in the cycle, xMU pushed past local peaks near the $1,012.83 mark before facing heavy profit-taking.
The Recent Dips: Market corrections have repeatedly tested investor patience, pulling the asset down sharply from its major highs during broader sector pullbacks.
Historical Recovery: Past cycles show that whenever xMU builds momentum after hitting a deep bottom (like the recent $723 level), it tends to rally hard toward psychological resistance barriers.After both SNDK and MU have risen once, will the next round of AI funding start coming from AMD?
Recently, the AI hardware sector has become quite interesting. The most exciting market at first was NVDA, but later it was found that GPU was not the only bottleneck. Funds began to spread toward HBM, DRAM, and SSD, and both MU and SNDK benefited from this round of revaluation. After storage was fully discussed by the market, I actually started to reconsider $AMD, because its current position is somewhat awkward: with such strong AI demand, the biggest winner is NVDA; Storage is in short supply, and MU and SNDK have their own logic; AMD clearly stands at the core of AI computing power, yet it still has to answer one question—when will it truly get a big enough pie from NVDA?
This issue is actually not the same as "does AMD have good chips?" The hardest part of AI chip competition now is not just benchmarking. The real danger of NVDA lies in CUDA, the developer ecosystem, the entire hardware and software set, and the habits customers have already formed. For companies like Google, Microsoft, and Meta that spend tens of billions a year on AI infrastructure, changing chips is not as simple as replacing a graphics card; subsequent software, model optimization, and engineering systems all have to move along. So even if AMD catches up quickly, it does not mean customers will immediately migrate on a large scale.
But on the flip side, the stronger the $NVDA, the more solid AMD's reason for existence actually becomes.
No cloud provider wants to have only one supplier forever. The more exaggerated NVDA's GPU prices, supply, and gross margins are, the stronger the motivation for major clients like Google, Microsoft, and Meta to seek second suppliers or even develop their own chips. What AMD really needs isn't even "beating NVDA"; as long as it can steadily capture a share of the AI accelerator market, it could be very substantial given its current scale.
That's why I think AMD's future focus shouldn't just be on next-generation chip specs. What truly deserves attention is the customers. Can the MI series continue to secure orders from major cloud vendors, can the software ecosystem keep migration costs low, and after the new generation products are released, will customers use them for testing or be willing to deploy them on a large scale? These two orders sound like "AI demand," but their meaning for profit is completely different.
The recent market trends of $MU and $SNDK have also served as a wake-up call for AMD. The AI industry chain has now entered the stage of "proving profits." In the past two years, as long as AI was involved, the market was willing to give imagination first; Now, NVDA has raised the bar very high, and everyone is demanding that orders, revenue, and profits truly be delivered. If AMD keeps always saying "the next generation will be stronger," the market will eventually lose patience.
So now, when I watch $AMD, I don't expect it to suddenly eliminate NVDA. That kind of story sounds satisfying but doesn't have much practical significance.
What I want to see is a simple change: in the future, when Google, Microsoft, and Meta announce that AI capital spending will continue to grow, the market will not only calculate how much NVDA will take, but also seriously calculate how much AMD can get.
The AI computing power market is large enough that the second place doesn't need to be first to make a lot of money.
What AMD truly needs to prove has never been "can I become the next NVDA?" but whether it has the ability to steadily carve out its own piece of the AI pie with such a huge AI pie on the table.
#AMD #NVDA #MU #SNDK #GOOGL #META #AI #半导体 #美股 #欧易星球Will the Fed raise rates again in September? July CPI meets expectations; how do event contracts price the probability of a rate hike?
On August 12, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month in July and fell 0.4% in June; The overall 12-month CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, slightly down from June's 3.5%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% month-on-month in July and remained flat in June; Core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, below the previous 2.6%. Both overall and core data met market expectations, with inflation continuing a mild cooling trend. Looking at the breakdown structure, the housing index rose 0.1% month-on-month, contributing two-thirds of the month's CPI increase. The energy index fell 1.5% month-on-month, significantly smaller than the 5.7% drop in June. Food prices rose 0.1% month-on-month. Internal core CPI showed divergence—healthcare, airfares, communications, education, entertainment, and used car prices rose month-on-month, while motor insurance continued to decline. The core message of the July CPI report is that inflation is slowly improving, but has yet to form a certainty enough to make the Fed fully let down its guard. After the data release, Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the New Federal Reserve News Agency, wrote that the July inflation report somewhat eased pressure for a rate hike in September, but the latest data does not provide much clear guidance on the longer-term rate outlook. This means that an inflation report in line with expectations does not end the suspense of the September rate decision—it merely tilts the balance slightly from "rate hikes" to "wait-and-see."
How does the inflation reading translate into the probability of a rate hike?
Before the data release, CME's "FedWatch FedWatch" showed about a 50% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September. After the data was released, the rate swap market's expectation for a rate hike in September dropped from about 50% to less than 40%. As of August 13, CME data showed a 59.9% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in September, and a 40.1% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The transmission chain between inflation data and rate hike probability is not complicated: core CPI year-on-year at 2.5% remains above the Fed's 2% target, but the direction is correct and the amplitude is moderate. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius made it clear before the data release that he does not expect the Fed to raise rates in the second half of 2026, believing that cooling inflation will outweigh the impact of a stagnant labor market. Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli believes that a 0.22% month-on-month increase in core CPI "may not be enough to prompt the Fed to raise rates at the September meeting," but if consecutive readings close to 0.3% occur, it could change the situation. The 0.2% month-on-month reading of July core CPI falls exactly in the "not strong enough" range. But the market has not completely abandoned its bets on rate hikes—a 40.1% implied probability means a considerable amount of capital is still preparing for a rate hike in September.
How a weakening job market shifts the policy balance
Before the July CPI data, the U.S. Department of Labor's July nonfarm payroll report released on August 7 had already cast a shadow over expectations of rate hikes. Data shows that nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far below the market's expected increase of 83,000. The employment data for the first two months was revised down by 103,000 in total. By industry, employment declines were mainly concentrated in local government education (-50,000), retail trade (-19,000), and financial activity (-14,000). The unexpected weakening in employment data and the moderate cooling of inflation have created a compounded policy effect. CMB International pointed out in its report that U.S. nonfarm payrolls in July weakened sharply and significantly fell short of expectations, with employment trends clearly slowing and wage growth further slowing. Against this backdrop, the "threshold" for Fed rate hikes has been substantially raised—even if inflation remains above target, if the labor market weakens in tandem, the cost of unilateral rate hikes will increase significantly. Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, takes a more direct view: since inflation data cannot provide clear conclusions, the September meeting results are roughly evenly split. This "50-50" pattern precisely shows that the market is simultaneously digesting two opposing forces—the pressure of inflation still above target and the constraints of a weakening labor market.
Why did internal divisions within the Federal Reserve continue to widen in July?
The FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged by a 9-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three voting members have held the same dissenting position. Cleveland Fed President Hamack said this week that a 25 basis point rate hike "may not help much to the economy," and the Fed may need to make a series of such adjustments. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Daly, who supports keeping rates unchanged, questioned whether gradual rate hikes are truly effective. Fed Chair Wash, who became the 17th chair on May 22, reiterated the 2% inflation target at a press conference after the July meeting but remained unclear about the specific policy path. The June FOMC dot plot shows that the median federal funds rate for the end of 2026 will be revised up from 3.4% in March to 3.8%, with as many as nine members expecting one or more rate hikes this year. This internal divergence means that the September rate decision will heavily depend on a series of data released in August. Before the September 15-16 policy meeting, the Fed will also receive the August jobs report, August CPI, and August PPI. Any data outperformance could become a key variable in changing the voting landscape.
How the event contract market is priced
September interest rate decision Beyond the traditional interest rate futures market, the forecast market and event contracts provide another window to observe market expectations. Gate event contracts are designed around major macro events as binary outcome bets — "yes" or "no" probabilities. For example, users can choose trading directions based on their judgment of policy outcomes $BTC With the AI market speculating so far, the company most easily overlooked might actually be Google.
Recently, when capital talks about AI, the first reaction is still NVDA. If you want to find the second tier, look at AMD; if you want to expand into hardware, it's MU and SNDK; if you want to bet on AI applications, look to Microsoft and Meta. $GOOGL It's a bit awkward. It's clearly one of the earliest tech giants to bet on AI—Gemini, TPU, cloud computing, and search—all directly related to AI. But the market has always faced a persistent question: the stronger the AI, the more likely Google will lose its original search business.
This is actually Google's most interesting contradiction right now.
Microsoft's AI is easily understood by the market as adding new revenue to Office and Azure; Meta's AI can improve advertising efficiency; NVDA is simpler—anyone doing AI has to buy a card first. Google is different; its most profitable asset is search ads. If users stop clicking ten blue links and instead directly ask Gemini for answers, the experience will be better, but what about ads that were originally tucked into search results?
So Google has to complete a rather difficult move: proactively change its most profitable products while proving that new AI search can be more profitable than before.
But on the flip side, I think the market may have underestimated Google's hand. It's not a startup that suddenly jumped out to build large models. Search portals, YouTube, Android, Chrome, Google Cloud, plus Gemini and its own TPU for many years, means Google has both models and computing power, and billions of users can directly reach it. Many AI companies struggle most with where to find users after the model is built, while Google's problem is quite the opposite—users are already in its hands.
This is completely different from the logic of NVDA, AMD, or even MU. Hardware companies earn money from AI development, while Google really wants to earn money from AI usage. The former is now very clear: data center expansion will lead to GPU, HBM, and SSD sales; The latter is just beginning to enter real commercialization competition. If AI Agents, AI search, and personal assistants truly become new internet entry points in the future, then companies with user entry points may be no less valuable than chip sellers.
Of course, Google's biggest risk now lies here. The better Gemini does, the fewer users click on traditional search results, and the more it needs to find new advertising and subscription models as quickly as possible. OpenAI, Meta, and Microsoft won't give up this entry point for free. The most comfortable thing about Google was that users would basically open Google first when they wanted to find something; In the AI era, the real challenge is who the first thing users ask when they have a problem.
So now, looking at $GOOGL, I don't really care whether Gemini can take first place on the next model chart.
What I want to see more is another thing: as AI search usage continues to grow, can Google continue to make every user generate the same or even more money as before?
NVDA sells AI-era shovels, while $MU and $SNDK sell AI-powered memories.
Google is betting even more—it's betting on the gateway to the AI era, and in the end, it's still itself.
If this gamble wins, AI will not be the gravedigger of Google Search but could actually be the start of Google's next round of growth.
#GOOGL #Google #NVDA #AMD #MU #SNDK #Gemini #AI #美股 #欧易星球1. Key Macro Drivers Softening Economic Data: Initial jobless claims reached 209,000 alongside a moderate 0.2% monthly increase in core PPI, signaling a cooling labor market and easing inflationary pressures. Rate Cut Expectations: Yields on U.S. Treasuries pulled back sharply as market participants priced in monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve before year-end. Aggressive Short Unwinding: Heavy institutional short positioning across technology and semiconductor names was caught off guaThe real story behind $OKB breaking above the 100 level isn’t simply hype—it’s a potential valuation reset driven by three major narratives.
The recent strength in $OKB appears tied to growing confidence in the OKX ecosystem and its expansion into tokenized assets and RWA.
Unlike many altcoins that are simply following $BTC and $ETH, $OKB is being driven by its own ecosystem narrative. That makes blindly shorting it a risky strategy, especially after such strong momentum.
A short-term pullback is always possible, but the bigger question is whether the underlying fundamentals can support continued growth.
For longer-term investors, some may prefer spot exposure and a multi-year outlook rather than excessive leverage.
1️⃣ Institutional & RWA Narrative
There have been reports and speculation around major traditional financial institutions becoming involved with OKX and its broader ecosystem.
If tokenized stocks and real-world assets continue moving on-chain, exchanges with strong infrastructure and regulatory positioning could benefit significantly.
2️⃣ Major Supply Reduction
The planned reduction of $OKB ’s total supply to a fixed 21 million tokens dramatically changes its scarcity narrative.
A hard supply cap gives $OKB a fundamentally different profile from an exchange token with an expanding or flexible supply.
3️⃣ X Layer Utility
$OKB ’s role within the X Layer ecosystem adds another layer of utility.
As network activity grows, demand for the token as a Gas asset could increase alongside ecosystem usage. More activity combined with token-burning mechanisms could create additional deflationary pressure.
🔥 The Bigger Picture
The narrative is evolving from:
“Exchange platform token” → “Scarce ecosystem asset with on-chain utility.”
If scarcity, real network demand, and broader RWA adoption continue to strengthen at the same time, the market may assign $OKB a very different valuation.
The key question now isn’t simply whether $OKB can break above 100.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #AIInfraEarningsWatch One coin fades, another one takes its place. 🔄
The crypto market really does feel like a spring breeze bringing everything back to life. 🌱 Altcoins keep rotating and pumping, as if liquidity is constantly searching for the next target.
$ACU has only doubled so far. I wouldn’t rush to short it here. With its relatively small market cap, even a modest wave of buying could trigger another explosive move. Keep it on watch. 👀
Just look at what happened with $BICO , $APR , and $CAP a few days ago.
They all experienced massive one-day moves, but in hindsight, that surge may have only marked the beginning rather than the end.
The real question isn’t which coin pumped today.
It’s which coin is next to attract the liquidity. 💧📈
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #AIInfraEarningsWatch $APR Prices are rising, but funds haven't kept up.
This is not a very good sign.
In the past half hour, the APR has risen by nearly 5%, but the OI indicator is trending downward, which to some extent indicates that funds are not flowing in but are actually flowing out.
This is a less healthy bullish signal, and often the market tends to drop rapidly at the end.
Additionally, its transaction volume has gradually decreased, reflecting that the market has gradually returned to calm and is no longer chasing it.
When the hype was high, they didn't take the opportunity to break new highs.
After the hype faded, the bears had already liquidated a large area.
And the bulls have already secured their positions and are unlikely to enter the market easily.
Even Green Hair has opened many long orders here, earning several thousand USD.
Many people have made ten or twenty times their money and exited.
When more people make money, it means the main force earns less.
This is the consequence of the main players' delayed price control.
Leverage capital is used to push prices, but if you don't act quickly, it's easy to end up as a buyer.
If short-selling institutions target you during the process, then the show will be interesting.
Stop using those tricks to lure bulls and bears.
Just like the story of the wolf coming, after so many times, no one believes it.
For someone like me, I'd rather write an article and comment than even get involved.
It's because I feel this main force is a bit greedy, wanting to buy it all in.
So, there's no need to enter the market and become its food—it's that simple.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts at #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $BTC #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate financial pools are diverging. At this level, short-term holders' costs are holding back at 68,700 yuan, while the median realized price is 63,000 yuan at the bottom, with spot trading volume hitting the lowest level since 2019. The market is as quiet as a sea before a storm...... Glassnode says this is the late bear market compression phase, but real demand signals have yet to appear. Core inflation fell back to 2.5% in July, the stock market hit a new high, but Bitcoin remains motionless—is this normal?Within one hour, 48 million was cleared in encrypted trading across the network, including 45.7 million in long liquidations and only 2.3 million in short positions, with long positions accounting for nearly 95.2%, indicating pure single-direction deleveraging.
In terms of exchange distribution, the three leading platforms accounted for over 80% of liquidations.
This decline instantly broke through the first liquidation cluster near 63,300, hitting a short-term low of around 62,720, with $BTC BTC experiencing a maximum drawdown of about 1.3% within one hour.
Let's look at the front-end contract data: last week, BTC was stuck in a narrow range of 63,000-65,000, with volatility continuously suppressed to low levels. The perpetual funding rate remained slightly positive at 0.015%-0.025%, indicating retail investors continued to open long positions, but the hype was not crazy. The overall long-short ratio of the three major exchanges was close to 1.7:1, with a long-short ratio of 1.54. Many short-term positions were betting on breaking above 65,000, with stop-losses piled up between 62,900 and 63,400, with highly overlapping positions.
The liquidation heatmap marked early: breaking below the $63,350 level means 442 million nominal long positions have entered the forced liquidation zone; the next major liquidation zone is 62,000-62,800, totaling about 516 million long risk positions. This hourly 48 million is only the first wave of release, far from triggering all potential liquidation positions below.
Scale comparison: Around 50 million in one hour is a moderate, short-term stamp. In extreme markets, one-hour liquidations generally break 200 to 300 million, and 24-hour heavy liquidations can push prices to over a billion. Looking at this time, this is a case of excessive sideways trading and one-sided positions caused by leverage relief, not a systemic crash.
After the liquidation, open interest across the entire network quickly fell by about 1.7%, meaning some leveraged funds left directly, but the overall holdings remained at a relatively high level, indicating that deleveraging was not thorough.
Macro supporting data: The 10-year US Treasury yield edged higher, and the market continued to lower its rate cut expectations for the year, with the first rate cut priced later. US BTC spot ETFs did not see large exits, but for several consecutive days, only small inflows of tens of millions were made, with clearly weak marginal buying and insufficient funds to support the 63,000 level. During the same period, the US Nasdaq weakened slightly, overall risk asset sentiment contracted, and BTC and growth stocks showed strong correlation, bearing selling pressure first.
Market details: The first to appear on the decline were several tens of millions worth of spot sell orders breaking below 63,380, not contract liquidation proactively starting the market. After the price break, the exchange's forced liquidation system automatically sells at the market price. Liquidity is insufficient in the short window, and sell orders further push the price down, leading to the liquidation of second and third long orders, forming self-reinforcement. Many long positions have leverage concentrated in the 10-20x range, with some positions above 30x, with very narrow margin for error. Any slight break in support triggers immediately.
Here are some key point data:
Holding above 63,000: Short-term liquidation pressure immediately subsides, and the consolidation pattern continues.
Falling below 62,800: Starting the second wave of long liquidation and release, with selling pressure significantly amplified.
Breakdown at 62000: Large-scale chain liquidation risk opens, and volatility will rapidly amplify.
Additionally, two layers of funds need to be distinguished: contract speculation is being concentrated and withdrawn, which is completely different from changes in long-term holders and institutional holdings. Currently, long-term on-chain holdings have not shown significant changes, and ETFs have not seen sustained redemptions; it is just that short-term leverage sentiment has collapsed.
Even if this round of bull markets is cleared all at once, it doesn't mean an immediate rebound. Currently, spot trading volume hasn't expanded in tandem, so there's no sign of a large amount of bottom-fishing funds entering the market. Whether it can hold steady going forward depends on the strength of spot market support, not on liquidation data.
The cumulative 24-hour liquidation has reached 146 million, and the gap between long-short liquidations has narrowed significantly, indicating that in the latter half of the decline, bears have also started to be swept away, and the one-way stampede phase has basically come to an end $ETH $SOL What MU should be most wary of right now may not be a huge price increase, but rather that the entire market has already accepted that "memory will only get more expensive."
This round of $MU logic is indeed very strong. AI servers continue to expand, and HBM has become one of the most important things alongside GPUs. As $NVDA and AMD move toward next-generation accelerators, their requirements for memory capacity and bandwidth are rising. At the same time, the supply of standard DRAM is also squeezed. The entire storage industry, which used to clear inventory in previous years, has suddenly reached a stage where people are starting to worry about "whether there will be enough supply."
This is also why $MU has recently gained particularly strong funding recognition.
Micron used to be most annoyed by cycles. DRAM prices rose, profits exploded, and Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all expanded production together; Once capacity came out, prices started dropping again. So in the past, when the market saw MU's profits suddenly booming, the first reaction was usually not to offer higher valuations, but to ask: Is this the top of the cycle?
AI has temporarily rewritten this issue.
Because HBM is not ordinary memory. To put it another name, it requires more wafer capacity and is more complex. When manufacturers allocate more resources to producing high-margin HBM, the supply of regular DRAM tends to tighten. The result is a very comfortable situation: AI directly drives HBM demand while indirectly helping traditional memory prices.
Similar things are actually happening on SNDK's side. AI models are getting larger, and data centers need not only GPUs and HBMs but also large numbers of enterprise-grade SSDs to store data. So recently, the market has been buying from NVDA all the way to MU and SNDK, essentially betting on the same thing: the speed of AI infrastructure construction will always outpace supply chain expansion in the short term.
But what worries me most right now is precisely this consensus.
Once everyone knows HBM shortages, DRAM price hikes, and strong demand for enterprise SSDs, these things are no longer just expectations bad. For MU to achieve higher valuations, what it needs to prove is no longer "AI is great," but that demand in 2027 and 2028 can still absorb new capacity.
Samsung won't always watch SK Hynix and Micron make money, nor will SNDK voluntarily give up expanding once NAND profits start to materialize. The most classic cycle in the semiconductor industry is like this: expand production when supply is most scarce, and sow the seeds of oversupply when it's most profitable.
So now, when looking at MU, I will look at NVDA and SNDK together.
NVDA told me whether AI capital spending has cooled, SNDK told me if the storage boom is still spreading, and MU's most important concerns are HBM supply, DRAM prices, and capacity changes.
If all three lines continue to rise simultaneously, this storage supercycle could indeed be much longer than before.
But if one day NVDA orders are still strong and MU and SNDK start to weaken early, I would be very cautious.
Because cyclical stocks are best to sell, often not when bad news is everywhere.
It was when everyone already believed that good days could last many more years.
$MU The biggest positive now is that AI has changed storage demand, but the biggest risk is that the market has begun to believe AI has completely changed the storage cycle.
#MU #SNDK #NVDA #AMD #美光 #AI #HBM #半导体 #美股 #苹果公司市值重回全球首位, surpassing Nvidia Pure handwritten copying, not AI
July's PPI did not rise month-on-month, and the core index rose only 0.2%. With favorable interest rates on the table, $IWM only hovered around $303.23, up about 0.17%, touching it to 305.05 intraday before pulling back again.
No selling, no rushing. Small caps have support, but the money chasing the price isn't strong enough.
Now, small positions are testing the long position, entering in batches at $302.8–$303.5, stop-loss at 300.8, target at 307.5; maximum loss per trade is 0.5%, no leverage needed. Breaking below 300.8 indicates that cooling inflation cannot bring incremental small-cap funds. Data as of Beijing time 00:19.The U.S. stock market just triggered a massive short squeeze—and crypto followed.
Cooling jobless claims and PPI strengthened rate-cut hopes, sending Treasury yields lower and forcing heavily shorted tech and storage names into aggressive covering.
The move then spilled into crypto:
$BTC and $ETH found support, with ETH showing stronger resilience from ETF flows.
Stock-linked tokens like $XSNDK and $XSPCX moved sharply higher, while small-cap memes mostly saw short-lived speculative pumps.
#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #AIInfraEarningsWatch The hotter quantum computing gets, the more BTC and ETH have to answer a question the market is unwilling to face
The Trump administration has updated the U.S. quantum strategy and promoted the commercialization, deployment, and national security application of quantum technology;
This kind of news is most likely to trigger panic in the crypto world: Will quantum computing crack $BTC and $ETH?
To start with the conclusion, progress in quantum technology does not mean that Bitcoin and Ethereum will immediately lose their security today. To truly threaten mainstream public-key cryptosystems, quantum computers with sufficient scale, stability, and error correction capabilities are needed. There is still a long way to go before real-world development and the "tomorrow wallet hacking" approach.
But what the market should really focus on is not whether the danger will happen tomorrow, but whether the network can complete the migration before the danger arrives.
BTC's advantages are stable rules and cautious changes, which is a key reason for its long-term trust. But the same feature may also cause major crypto upgrades to require longer coordination. Miners, nodes, wallets, trading platforms, and holders all need to reach a consensus on migration solutions.
ETH's development and upgrade mechanisms are more active, theoretically making it easier to introduce new signature schemes. However, the Ethereum ecosystem has a large number of smart contracts, Layer 2s, cross-chain bridges, and custodial systems, and the components involved in migration are more complex.
One is slow coordination, the other is high system complexity.
What quantum risks may truly impact may not be the blockchain itself, but old addresses that haven't moved for years and whose public keys have been exposed, as well as wallets and infrastructure that haven't been upgraded in time. If the market begins to believe quantum threats are becoming a reality, whether these potential tokens will be stolen or migrated ahead could affect price expectations.
This is also why the quantum topic is both a risk for BTC and a sign of institutional upgrades.
If the Bitcoin network can complete post-quantum migration before a real threat arrives, it will prove that so-called "digital gold" is not an unchangeable old code, but rather a security layer that can be updated without breaking currency rules.
ETH needs to prove that a fast-iterating ecosystem can carry out migration in a unified manner without causing mass applications and asset fragmentation.
In the short term, it's easy to create panic with "quantum cracking BTC," but the truly valuable indicators are much more specific: whether developers have formed migration plans, whether wallets and custodians are starting to support new signature standards, and whether the network can provide secure transition paths for old addresses.
Quantum computing won't suddenly destroy cryptocurrencies because of a single piece of news, but it will gradually force BTC and ETH to answer the same question:
A system that claims to preserve decades of wealth can proactively prepare for attacks decades from now?The main takeaway is market resilience, not simply “Bitcoin must be at the bottom.”
Bad news isn't moving BTC: If repeated negative catalysts fail to produce new lows, it suggests sellers may be becoming exhausted.
Institutional adoption could be the bigger story: The argument is that the next major wave may come from traditional wealth-management platforms rather than crypto-native traders.
BTC and ETH may capture institutional flows: Smaller DeFi assets can still benefit, but institutional portfolios generally have greater capacity for the largest, most liquid assets.
The important confirmation is price action: “Bad news doesn't matter” becomes much more meaningful if BTC continues making higher lows and eventually breaks major resistance with strong volume.
Don't treat the $180K/$8K/$500 projections as guaranteed targets: Those are forecasts, not facts. Crypto can remain highly volatile even when the long-term adoption story is positive.
So the strongest signal here is:
If increasingly bearish news produces less and less downside, while demand continues absorbing selling, the market may be transitioning from a seller-controlled phase to an accumulation phase.
But I'd still watch BTC's support levels, ETF flows, volume, and macro liquidity before declaring a confirmed bottom.The Harmony incident: The problem lies more with supply and demand cracks than with price structure. Can this incident fundamentally change ONE's price discovery method? About 4 billion ONE was illegally issued on the Harmony protocol. This accounts for about 26% of the supply before the incident, of which approximately 2.8 billion ONE was transferred to exchanges. The current market challenges go beyond simple selling pressure. There are two key points. First, can the Harmony Foundation freeze the relevant funds? Second, can transaction history be rolled back? These two variables mean that the effective supply of ONE itself can be redefined depending on how the incident is handled afterward. The structural feature of this incident is that it was not a single altcoin event, but a simultaneous shock on both the supply side and the trust side. While typical hacks usually involve the movement of funds to specific addresses, this time there was unlimited issuance at the protocol level. This dilutes the stakes of existing holders and reduces uncertainty about future issuance to the market.SOL's short window tone is clearly bullish, so don't turn trending topics into market trends yet
OKX Onchain OS recorded 12 mentions of SOL in one hour at 23:00 on August 13, at about 0.48 times the 24-hour average, with the current tone being "bullish with clear dominance."
Here, we need to break down two things: faster mentions only mean more new discussions; Bullish or bearish dominance only means text classification, and neither is the real buying or selling volume. In this round of sources, X appeared 10 times and news 2 times; the more concentrated the sources, the easier it is for a single narrative to be amplified.
I'll wait for the next snapshot to confirm whether the speed and source continue, then check spot transactions, funding rates, open interest, and on-chain usage. If the data can echo each other, this wave of interest is worth looking forward to.Just after CPI was released, PPI poured a bucket of lukewarm water, but the market fell below the middle track—Lao Mo said inflation had cooled, but the market was trading on another matter
Guys, this week's macro data is packed like the New Year.
Let's start with CPI, which hits the bullseye perfectly.
On August 12, the US July CPI report was released. Overall, CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, lower than June's 3.5%, marking the second consecutive month of decline. Core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year, also slightly lower. Month-on-month, July's CPI rose 0.1%, and the decline seen in June did not return. Energy prices fell 1.5% month-on-month, but the decline was much smaller than June's 5.7%. Overall—in line with expectations and in a positive direction.
As for PPI, it's even gentler than expected.
On August 13, the July PPI data was released. Month-on-month steady at 0.0%, analysts had originally expected a 0.2% increase. Year-on-year growth fell from 5.5% to 4.7%, also below the expected 4.9%. Core PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, also below the expected 0.3%. For the second consecutive month, final demand prices for PPI did not rise.
Putting these two data points together, the narrative of cooling inflation is now confirmed.
The data shows that the probability of keeping rates unchanged in September rose from 54.1% to 55.9%, while the probability of a rate hike dropped from 45.9% to 44.1%. The market is shifting from a "50-50 split" to "leaning toward no rate hikes."
But instead of rising, the market is falling.
BTC's latest price is 63,109, down 0.43% in 24 hours, with a low of 62,818 and a high of 63,997. The 4-hour Bollinger Band middle band is at 63,567, with the upper band at 64,079 and the lower band at 63,055. The price 63,109 has already broken below the middle band at 63,567 and is running close to the lower band at 63,055—a weak signal, not a strong consolidation. The SAR reversal signal at 63,654 has been broken—the short-term trend has shifted from bullish to bearish. SuperTrend 63,679 is also holding back overhead.
MACD fast line -127.6, slow line -54.9, energy bar -145.4. Compared to yesterday's chart (fast line 4.4, energy bar 75.2), bullish momentum has completely disappeared, and bears have started to dominate. Fast lines turning from positive to negative, and energy bars from positive to negative—these are typical trend reversal signals.
Key levels: First resistance above 63,500-63,700; a breakout at 64,000-64,200; first support below 62,800-63,000; if broken, target 62,500-62,600.
Positive data, but prices fall—what is the market trading?
First, the CPI had already risen to 1,200 points the night before, and expectations were over. On August 11, the CPI eve jumped from 63,100 to 64,400, meaning the bulls had already already priced in the expected CPI in advance. The data is a classic scenario for financial markets.
Second, inflation is still above 3%, far from 2%. A lower probability of rate hikes does not mean a rate cut. No rate hikes in September, but rates are likely to remain stuck between 3.5% and 3.75%. The market is pricing in "higher for longer," which is not truly positive for risk assets.
Third, internal battles are still ongoing within the Federal Reserve, with no one winning.
On August 13, two Fed officials spoke simultaneously, holding completely opposite positions. Richmond Fed President Barkin supported holding the rate unchanged; Cleveland Fed President Hamack insisted on raising rates, stating, "I think we need to take action now."
Hawks say inflation is still above 3%, far from 2%, and that if you don't act now, you'll be more passive later. Doves say employment is already loosening and inflation is easing, so wait and see. Both sides have data backing them, which is why the probability of a rate hike in September is stuck at the awkward 44% level.
Lao Mo said a few words about the operation.
If Bitcoin breaks below both the mid-band and SAR support levels, the short-term trend has turned bearish. Don't go against the trend.
For those wanting to short: rebound 63,500-63,700, but light positions are worth trying, stop loss above 64,000, target 62,800-63,000, and a breakout target 62,500-62,600.
For those wanting to go long: wait for a stabilization signal between 62,800-63,000. If there are stop-drop signals like a shrinking doji or a long lower shadow, consider lightly entering and testing long, setting a stop loss below 62,500, targeting 63,500-63,700. Continue to wait cautiously—wait for the August nonfarm payrolls, wait for the Jackson Hole annual meeting, and wait until the direction is clear before acting.
Lao Mo finally said: Inflation is indeed cooling down, but the market is falling instead of rising. The market is telling you it's time to respect the trend—data is data, market is market, and there's a wall of 'expectations' between the two.
Bing has fallen below the mid-tier track—are you bottom-fishing or just waiting and waiting? Let's talk in the comments.
If you think Lao Mo has a clear breakdown, give a like and follow. When the key points come, I'll call you immediately. #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen $BTC $ETH $OKB Saying goodbye to double-digit mindless effortless profits: EigenLayer enters a brutal painful period—how does the commercial closed loop of re-staking take take place?
Recently, I chatted with a few friends who have been farming Liquid Restaking and then staking points, and most of them were complaining about the same phenomenon.
The EigenLayer ecosystem, which once boasted double-digit returns, massive reward points, and various AVS token airdrops, has recently dropped its comprehensive return to the benchmark range of 4% to 7%. Many friends who have layered layers of leverage on assets for arbitrage have found that after deducting gas fees and funding costs, the actual returns they receive are barely covered by losses.
Re-pledged, once the hottest engine, is clearly hitting a harsh wall of commercial reality.
Everyone witnessed the early frenzy, with funds flooding in across the internet, pushing EigenLayer's locked value to an astonishing scale of tens of billions. But no matter how high the capital piles, it cannot hide the core contradiction of supply-demand imbalance. The market has accumulated massive restaking funds, but the number of Web2 or Web3 entities willing to spend real money to buy AVS security verification services is pitifully few.
Most of the generous profits people received early on were just subsidies frantically issued by the project team to generate buzz.
Once project teams in the ecosystem begin tightening token emissions, or the secondary liquidity of the altcoins themselves comes under pressure, the yield flywheel backed by fake interest will immediately stagnate. Faced with this awkward situation, the official team has recently begun adjusting its strategic direction, trying to align with the EigenCloud concept, and has proposed a new plan to extract AVS protocol yields for token buybacks in the secondary market.
This series of moves marks that the restaking sector is moving from a bloated phase of point-based airdrops to a period of seeking genuine commercial loops.
This is actually a good thing for the entire crypto ecosystem. Decentralized security services cannot always be built on printing money out of thin air; they ultimately need to find genuine buyers willing to pay for network security, decentralized oracles, and data availability. Only when restaking networks can continuously generate fiat-level real protocol revenue and feed back to token holders and staking nodes can this track emerge from Ponzi pains.
Finally, here's a question for friends: after the restaking yield has been squeezed out of the water, would you still lock your ETH in the restaking protocol? Do you think the EigenCloud model can run a real commercial capital loop for restaking?
#BitMine成全球最大ETH质押方 🚀 BNB/USDT Short-Term Prediction 🚀
BNB is currently trading around $BNB 606.90 after pulling back slightly from its recent peak of $BNB 620.60. The overall uptrend remains healthy, with key support holding right near the $600.00 moving average level.
📈 Short-Term Price Targets:
Bullish Target: $625.00 – $635.00 🎯 (If it holds above $600.00 and breaks $615.00)
Key Support Zone: $595.00 – $600.00 🛡️
If buyers hold support above $600.00, expect another bullish move toward $625.00+ soon! 📊💸⚡The most interesting thing about BNB right now is that while everyone is looking for the "next hundredfold coin," it is quietly making money from the entire market's active market.
Recently, as Meme, new coins, and on-chain trading have started heating up again, I actually took a fresh look at $BNB. Many people think platform coins don't have any sexy stories, $SOL at least they can talk about performance, payments, and RWA. DOGE can talk about Musk, PEPE and $GIGGLE are even more so. Once emotions run high, fluctuations in just a few days can be greater than in months for platform coins. But BNB has a special aspect: it doesn't necessarily need to guess which coin will ultimately win. As long as more and more people are still trading and looking for opportunities on-chain, it has a chance to benefit from the whole process.
This is actually a bit like a gold rush. Everyone is competing over which mine can dig gold; the ones who truly make stable money are often those selling shovels, running hotels, and collecting tolls. The logic behind BNB is somewhat similar. When new projects launch, people trade; When Memes get hot, people run on-chain; When market sentiment returns, Launchpools, new coins, and various ecosystem activities start attracting users again. Which project ultimately goes zero doesn't necessarily directly determine BNB's value; what really matters is whether these people remain in the entire system.
This is one of the biggest differences between it and SOL. A large part of SOL's current appeal comes from on-chain activity—Memes, DEXs, payments, and stablecoins all create transaction demand; BNB adds a platform entry layer. Users may start out just to buy BTC, then participate in new coin events, trade on BNB Chain, and finally use wallets to participate in other on-chain applications. As long as this user path continues to cycle, BNB will benefit more than just one sector, but the growth in crypto trading demand as a whole.
But the biggest problem with platform coins is precisely here.
This model seems stable but is highly dependent on the platform itself. If users start migrating massively, trading volume is taken by other platforms, or the hottest on-chain assets remain on SOL or other ecosystems for a long time, BNB's entry advantage will gradually weaken. Therefore, BNB should not be judged solely by coin price or how many new addresses BNB Chain has gained today; what should really be watched is whether the entire system continues to attract new users and whether these users stay after joining.
OKB is actually facing the same problem. The final battle with platform coins isn't whose token name is more prominent, but who can continue directing exchange traffic to wallets, on-chain, payments, new assets, and more financial services. The deeper you go, the more platform tokens become like a token of rights for the entire ecosystem; If you don't go deep enough, it's easy to revert to the old story of "transaction fee discount coins."
So now, looking at $BNB, I don't really care whether it's the fastest-rising asset this round.
SOL can win a round of public chain markets, DOGE can win a round of meme markets, and new coins can even double in a day. But what platform coins really want to win is another game: as long as everyone is still playing in this casino, can it keep standing at the door collecting money?
The most attractive thing in a bull market is the soaring chips, but the ones most easily overlooked are often the ones selling the chips.
#BNB #BNBChain #SOL #OKB #DOGE #Crypto #加密货币 #OKX星球话题来啦 Tonight, there's actually just one serious matter in the crypto world.
The SEC is holding a meeting today at 10 AM Eastern Time, which is 10 PM Beijing time tonight, to vote on whether to formally propose Regulation Crypto. Note, it's a proposal, not implementation. The CLARITY bill in Congress didn't pass before recess, so the SEC is taking the lead on regulation drafting. Rumor has it they will provide projects with a roughly $75 million financing channel without full registration, but it won't take effect until next year at the earliest. The narrative is set, but don't assume the rules are finalized.
On the market front, BTC is still hovering around 63,000. Yesterday's rebound was mainly driven by contract position increases; spot buying remains weak. This kind of structure can easily trigger a leverage washout with a single pull. Sideways movement doesn't mean nothing is happening.
Two side notes: The Russian central bank has added BTC, ETH, and USDT to the list of tradable assets, with retail investors limited to 300,000 rubles per year, effective September 1. Also, Coinbase and Block are pushing for AI labs, saying attackers' models are stronger than defenders', and security is struggling to keep up.
And SanDisk, Dizi is making a strong push tonight.ETH forecast tomorrow morning: Will there be a new bullish wave or is it a "Buy the rumor, sell the news" scam?
Inflation data (July CPI): CPI shows that inflationary pressures are showing signs of cooling down, but the market has not yet reacted in a sustainable upward direction. (The Block)
PPI data: The July PPI actually increased by 4.7% YoY, lower than the forecast of 4.9% and down sharply from 5.5% in the previous period. This is a positive signal for inflation expectations, but the market's reaction is not too strong.
ETH price movement: ETH is currently hovering around the $1,880–$1,900 area, suggesting that buying power is not strong enough to make a clear breakout after a series of inflation data.
Outlook: With the PPI already lower than expected, most of the good news may have been absorbed by the market. Tomorrow morning's scenario is notable for ETH to suck up FOMO and then turn around to correct, instead of immediately forming a sustained uptrend.
ETH brothers beware of firewood tomorrow morning!
$ETH Key Battles in Tomorrow Morning: Korean Stock SKHYNIX $SKHYNIX Expected to Surge Sharply!
There are two reasons: First, today's increase in the US stock Hynix ADR has shown a clear premium, creating an upward price pull for Korean stocks; Second, there has once again been a funding fee as high as 0.385%, with bulls willing to pay their holding costs, and the market shares a unified bullish outlook.
I have already set up a long grid for Hynix and shorted Hynix ADR hedging, waiting for developments tomorrow morning.
#芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebounded over 22% #海力士推进NAND扩产 over the 10th day, raising expectations for storage supply Short squeezes in US stocks are spreading through the crypto world, and beneath the lively market, the divergence is very clear
Many mistakenly believe a new round of trending has arrived. But looking at the market inside, this rally is essentially a short-term short squeeze driven by macro data, not a complete fundamental reversal.
Let's look at the source first: the latest U.S. initial jobless claims and core PPI data have weakened, with employment and inflation cooling simultaneously. The market is further betting on Fed rate cuts this year, pushing U.S. Treasury yields downward.
Previously, a large number of hedge funds had concentrated their bets on technology and storage sectors, with short positions piled high. With the release of positive data, funds rushed in to go long, and short margins couldn't hold on, forcing them to passively close positions at high prices to cover their positions, triggering a wave of bear stampede short squeezes. $MU $SNDK Pushed the Nasdaq stronger, combined with market maker buying, further amplifying gains.
This market chain quickly spread to the crypto world, but the allocation of funds was extremely uneven, and the market felt especially fragmented.
The hottest tokens online are storage concept mapping tokens xSNDK and xSPCX, which surged continuously in the short term. Screenshots of profits are everywhere in communities, and the hype quickly spreads, attracting a large number of retail investors to follow suit and chase the trend. These stocks purely ride on the U.S. stock market sentiment, with a full speculative nature, and extremely high volatility and risk.
In contrast, large-cap blue chips $BTC ETH only stabilized its volatility on rate cut expectations and failed to break out strongly. Institutional funds continue to flow into ETH ETFs, showing clear signs of long-term capital allocation. In theory, ETH's price elasticity will be greater than Bitcoin's.
On the other hand, the vast majority of small-cap coins follow a completely different script: no real business or narrative support, just riding the market rebound pulse. At the slightest market movement, speculative funds take the opportunity to push prices higher and sell off, rising faster and more aggressively, with intense fluctuations to harvest the profits. A very realistic phenomenon in the industry now: institutional funds tend to focus on mainstream positions, retail investors chase high-priced hot spots, and many blindly rush in at the excitement, only to end up trapped at high levels.
One thing must be clear: this round of rally is a pulse driven by short positions, driven by short-term sentiment, not the start of a new bull market. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting at the end of the month will be the most important variable going forward. Once the tone is hawkish and rate cut expectations cool, US stocks and crypto markets are prone to rapid corrections. Currently, leverage positions are not low, and the risk of stampede during a pullback cannot be ignored.
Given the current market environment, there's no need to chase the rally or join the crowd. A safer approach is to wait for a pullback before choosing an opportunity to focus on BTC or ETH. Try to avoid high-spec small-cap altcoins and hot concept coins, and don't let short-term rally opinions mislead.
This article is only an objective market review and sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.PPI forecast tonight: Will SNDK continue to break through or is it a "Buy the rumor, sell the news" trick?
Inflation data (CPI in July): Signals of cooling inflation are helping the market maintain positive expectations, while technology and semiconductor stocks continue to benefit. (Reuters)
PPI forecast tonight: If the PPI continues to be lower than expected, inflationary pressures could ease further and provide sentiment support for the technology group. However, much of the positive expectations may have been reflected in the price.
SNDK price movement: SNDK is experiencing a strong upward momentum. Shares jumped more than 15% in today's session after Investor Day, as SanDisk laid out its long-term growth outlook and emphasized the need for AI storage and tight NAND supply.
Perspective: With the strong increase already there, even if the PPI is positive tonight, the possibility of SNDK continuing to make a sustainable breakthrough immediately is not easy. The remarkable scenario is still to pull up according to the news → take profits strongly → retest the support price area. SNDK brothers beware of firewood! 🔥
$SNDK What really caught my attention these past two days wasn't BTC or ETH, but SMIC's financial report.
Q2 profit directly reached $479 million, nearly double market expectations, and revenue exceeded $3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36%. Even more astonishing, the market had long worried that China's chip manufacturing would be limited by equipment, processes, and supply chains, but now AI demand has driven up mature processes and local capacity utilization. SMIC's financial report actually shows one thing: this AI rally is no longer just about high-end GPU companies like NVDA and AMD; even upstream wafer manufacturing is beginning to receive real orders.
This is interesting. In the past, when people looked at the AI industry chain, it was easy to form a fixed mindset: GPUs were the most valuable, and the rest were just supporting the price. But now, from $MU, SNDK to SMIC, capital is gradually breaking down this logic. GPUs are still the core, but behind an AI server lies memory, storage, advanced packaging, power, networking, and further on, wafer production capacity. As long as AI capital spending continues to increase, the benefits will not be limited to one or two companies, but to the entire hardware chain.
The most noteworthy thing about SMIC right now isn't that profits multiplied this quarter, but that they're already facing a problem many people hadn't anticipated before: insufficient production capacity. The company itself is also accelerating the advancement of new production lines, which means demand has shifted from "whether orders exist" to "whether it can be delivered." This situation is somewhat similar to MU, SK Hynix, and even SNDK recently—the market is no longer just restocking inventory, but AI tightening the entire hardware supply chain at once.
But I actually think this place is the easiest to overheat. Whenever an industry starts experiencing supply shortages, soaring profits, or companies collectively expanding production, the market easily counts the good days ahead into its stock price all at once. After Changxin Memory went public, it was chased by capital frantically, while SMIC's profits soared, while MU and $SNDK were running out of trading and storage. The entire industry chain is telling almost the same story: AI demand will continue to explode.
The problem is, the capital market prefers to trade the next step ahead of time.
If capacity is lacking today, everyone should expand; When new capacity is actually added in two years, will AI demand still be able to maintain the current pace? If so, this semiconductor boom may last longer than any previous cycle; If not, the companies that seem most profitable now will eventually face the cycle again.
So now I increasingly feel that the AI market has truly entered its second phase. The first phase is about finding who will benefit most directly, NVDA being the most obvious; The second phase will focus on who is the bottleneck, with MU, SNDK, and SMIC all starting to be repriced $BTC
AI originally lacked GPUs; now it lacks the entire supply chain.
When an industry shifts from "insufficient demand" to "insufficient capacity," profits look great, but the most aggressive expansion often starts at this point.
#中芯国际 #SMIC #MU #SNDK #NVDA #AI #半导体 #美股 #星球日报 1064 days of growth, 364 days of decline.
Every cycle has lasted exactly the same:
From the 2015 bottom to the December 2017 peak, 1064 days passed, followed by a 364-day bear market into the December 2018 bottom.
Then another 1064 days to the November 2021 peak, followed by 364 days down to the November 2022 bottom.
Bitcoin set its latest ATH on October 6, 2025 — exactly 1064 days after the November 2022 bottom.
If this pattern remains intact, the end of the bear market and the next bottom#芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22%
I followed this for a month in July; at that time, some people on the forum were shouting "Give me back my money."
A rebound of about 22% over ten trading days (CNBC cites LSEG at 23%), a technical bull market. On Thursday, the Kospi rose 4.15% to 6,852.31, SK Hynix +7.11%, Samsung +3.72%.
But these two numbers must be viewed together: July saw a 22% drop for the whole month, the worst single month since the financial crisis; even after the rebound, it is still about 24% below the peak at the end of June.
It has only climbed out halfway from the crash.
The most ironic layer: the culprit of the July crash was the forced liquidation of leveraged chip bets, while one reason for this stabilization is the government restricting single-stock leveraged ETFs and retail investors reducing margin balances.
The same thing is fuel when rising, but explosive when falling; once regulated, it becomes a stabilizer.
Where the fragility lies (according to Citibank): Korean retail investors bought $6.7 billion in overseas securities in July, with overseas purchases exceeding domestic ones by the end of the month. Domestic funds are still flowing out.
Catalyst: Samsung and Hynix are expected to announce shareholder return plans soon.
Strategy: If bullish on memory, buy upstream or US targets (Micron), avoid Korean leveraged products—the same logic, but volatility differs by an order of magnitude. Watch DRAM spot prices and capital expenditure announcements; these two move ahead of stock prices.BTC held firm, while the altcoins fell badly. This isn't a broad drop—it's capital rearranging its position. Have you noticed that what really hurt today isn't Bitcoin, but those "star coins" that still tickled you yesterday? When $BEAT surged to 1.35 yesterday, how many people thought it was about to take off? Today, a large bearish candlestick plunged back to 0.96, a 54% amplitude, and those chasing the high overnight returned to square one. This isn't just a simple pullback; it's a classic 'distribution trap'—pushing up the price to deal with all kinds of dissatisfaction. Market sentiment here is not panic, but "selective blindness": everyone focuses only on BTC's stability, while selectively ignoring the stampede happening in the altcoin. My true feeling today is: the market is telling us something very important—the money hasn't left, it's just withdrawing from the counterfeit gambling table back to BTC's safe haven. $BTC Staying unmoved near 63,600 is not weakness, it's momentum. When a mountain is like a river of blood while the market remains rock solid, it often means that the main funds are contracting their front lines, preparing for the next targeted strike. But don't rush to be optimistic; there's a risk that has been overlooked: BTC's stability may also be the calm before the storm. If the 63,000 level is breached, those altcoins still holding on will face a second wave of sell-off, and then the -17% drop won't be an issue. Looking at the strong $HYPE, 57.67, climbed up from 52 in five days, and today it even broke the previous high. But my judgment is: it's strong, but it doesn't represent youRussell 2000 went up to 3067, a record high. US stocks gained 2.7 trillion more in a week
$BTC Still playing dead at 64,000
But that's the real point: money is flowing from large-cap stocks to small-cap stocks. Ash Crypto puts it bluntly—historically, ETH and altcoins have followed Russell
In 2017 and 2021, the script was exactly the same. Russell flew first, and altcoins lagged 50-100 days behind
Now Russell has already left, but the altcoins still haven't woken up
ISM 55.6+ Russell hit new highs, marking the start of crypto bull markets in both 2016 and 2020
US stocks are flying, BTC is playing dead, and altcoins haven't woken up yet. Historically, this kind of divergence has always been Bitcoin holding out first, followed by altcoins
Don't wait until the price has finished to react 🚀#芯片股领涨，韩股十日反弹逾22%
I have to say this separately: This is the trend line I have been following for the entire month of July, and the reversal happened even faster than a crash.
Let's clarify the numbers first (there are slight differences in data sources, all listed together):
Bloomberg: Kospi rose 3.6% on Thursday (intraday up to 4.8%), rebounding about 22% from the July 30 low, over 10 trading days.
CNBC citing LSEG: rebound about 23%.
Investing.com: Kospi up 4.15% to 6,852.31, Samsung up 3.72%, SK Hynix up 7.11%.
Korea Exchange data: opened at 6,773.92, up 194.88 points (2.96%), marking the fourth consecutive trading day of gains.
The technical definition of a bull market is a rise of more than 20% from a recent low — it has achieved that.
But two numbers must be viewed together:
1. KOSPI fell 22% throughout July, the worst monthly drop since the global financial crisis.
2. Even after rebounding 22%, it is still about 24% below the peak at the end of June.
In other words: it has only climbed halfway out of a "historically rare crash."
Three reasons for the rebound:
1. Earnings reports from major global tech companies confirmed continued AI investment. On August 12, CoreWeave and SMCI each rose 19% in the New York market, Micron up about 5%.
2. Mild US inflation data eased concerns about further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
3. Government restrictions on single-stock leveraged ETFs and signs of investors reducing margin balances helped stabilize the market.
I want to emphasize the last point because it is the most ironic part of this whole situation.
The direct cause of the July crash was forced liquidations of leveraged chip bets — triggering trading halts and wiping out billions of dollars in retail investor wealth. At that time, someone wrote on a Korean trading forum: "I want to go back to before I started trading stocks. Give me back my money." The KODEX SK Hynix single-stock leveraged ETF dropped about 70% from its June high.
Now, government restrictions on leveraged ETFs have become one of the reasons the market has stabilized.
The same thing is fuel when rising, explosive when falling, and becomes a stabilizer once regulated.
Two sober voices:
Kang DaeKwun, CEO of Life Asset Management, spoke cautiously, basically saying: the market overshot downward during the unwinding of leveraged positions, and the current rebound is a natural recovery after liquidity stabilized; but without a solid AI narrative and stable US interest rates, the market will struggle to sustain a continuous rise.
Citibank pointed out a divergence: the Korean won appreciated 7.1% against the US dollar in July, the strongest monthly gain since November 2022, while the KOSPI suffered its largest monthly drop since the financial crisis. Moreover, Korean retail investors bought $6.7 billion in overseas securities in July, with overseas asset purchases exceeding domestic Korean stocks and ETFs by month-end.
This means domestic capital is still flowing out, and if AI trading comes under pressure again, KOSPI remains vulnerable.
There is another catalyst on the way: the market expects Samsung and SK Hynix to soon announce shareholder return plans, which has also boosted recent sentiment.
Strategy: KOSPI is still up over 60% year-to-date, a rally largely driven by retail investors. A technical bull market does not mean structural issues are resolved — the fact that two stocks account for about 60% of the index weight remains unchanged.
If you want to participate in this storage rebound, buy upstream or US targets, but avoid Korean leveraged products. The same logic, different vehicles, can result in volatility differing by an order of magnitude. What really should be tracked are DRAM spot prices and capital expenditure announcements from various companies, as those move ahead of stock prices.An interesting detail of the past bear cycle $BTC
In 2022, along with the fall of BTC, both open interest and volumes gradually decreased. The market was cleared of a large number of positions and leverage.
Now OI remains significantly higher than the levels of previous years, so the market structure is completely different. 👏Today's split screen is the story: the S&P 500 broke 7,800 for the first time ever, tech led the charge, and traders trimmed their odds of a September Fed hike after a soft inflation print and a 2%+ drop in oil. Classic "cheap money coming back" setup. Bitcoin should be the biggest beneficiary of that setup. It isn't. $BTC is sitting near $63,500, stuck in the same $62K–$66K box it's been boxed into since the July CPI release — down slightly on the day even as equities rip. Continued ETF outflow"Predictions for ETH in the Next 60 Days"
August 13, 2026 · Thursday
Third Quarter · Issue 99
Aspirin · Period analysis from the perspective of a data scientist
ETH is currently priced at about $1782. In May 2026, it fell 8.2%, in June it dropped 22.7%, in July it rebounded 9.6%, and since August has experienced slight upward fluctuations. This July rebound recovered some losses from the sharp decline in June, but it is not enough to directly conclude that the current mid-term correction has ended. Reviewing the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, there were rebounds after summer lows, followed by several weeks of low-volatility grinding. The truly important yearly lows often appear in later time windows.
1. On historical months and price pressure zones
The monthly rhythms of 2018 and 2022 are informative for ETH: continuous declines in May and June, a recovery and rebound in July, and another weakening and adjustment in August and September. There was no July rebound in 2014, and continued declines from June to September. According to Glassnode's historical daily price backtests, ETH fell 11.4% and 7.8% in August and September 2018; 16.1% and 4.7% in August and September 2022; Declines of 21.3% and 19.2% in August and September 2014. The sample sizes of these three historical samples are limited and cannot be fixed as seasonal rules, but they all remind us: in a mid-term correction, the July rebound does not mean the bear market bottom has been established.
Using $1782 as the benchmark for a stress scenario test, a 10% pullback corresponds to about $1604; On this basis, an 8% pullback brings the price to $1476.
Therefore, $1580-$1620 serves as the first level of risk observation range, while $1440-$1490 serves as a deeper resistance range. The above is only a retracement observation reference and not a price target, so it does not necessarily mean the market will arrive.
The strength of this summer rebound is relatively weak. In 2018, ETH's maximum rebound from the summer low was nearly 55%, while this round of rebound from the stage low was only 18%. The current market heat indicator is about 0.22, significantly below the 0.42-0.51 range in the same period in 2022, closer to the mid-stage level of the 2018 bear market. Low market enthusiasm often reflects insufficient incremental funds, shrinking market volatility, and a lack of capital support for sustained rebounds.
2. On cycle days and bear market duration
The main cycle lows of the previous two complete bear market ETH cycles fell on day 1442 and day 1435 respectively. Currently, it is at day 1366 of the cycle, and in sixty days it will approach day 1426, entering a 1-2 week time window before and after the historical low. The time difference between the top of several cycles and the bear market low is roughly 12 days. Time dimension alone cannot determine price, but it suggests that late September to October is a time window that requires careful scrutiny.
In terms of bear market duration, the first two complete bear markets lasted 53 and 55 weeks respectively. Fitting this cycle into the trading weeks of October 8 and October 22, respectively; An earlier bear market lasted 60 weeks, corresponding to the week of November 27 this year. The three bear market troughs were in January, December, and November. If the monthly migration pattern is still useful, October could become a potential key candidate month. However, the sample of monthly migration is limited and can only serve as auxiliary evidence.
The historical lessons of 2018 are worth noting: after the July rebound, the market consolidated sideways from August to October without clear direction, and only began a new round of deep declines in November. ETH's summer equilibrium in 2022 lasted until late August. Therefore, the fact that August did not immediately break downward only means short-term supply-demand balance is temporary and cannot directly confirm that a major bear market low has appeared.
3. Three scenario forecasts for the next 60 days
1. A key low point for this round will form around October, with a subjective probability of about 50%. In August and September, the overall trend remains weak. ETH will fall below 1700 and the summer low, first testing the 1580-1620 observation range; If on-chain indicators weaken and reset simultaneously, the 1440-1490 range will enter the observation range. Price downturns must be synchronized with on-chain indicators; a rapid short-term drop alone is insufficient to confirm this scenario.
2. The sideways consolidation continues into November, with a subjective probability of about 30%. Support near 1680 remains active, and the market remains in a narrow range; On-chain indicators such as NUPL, ETH-MVRV, Z-Score, and others have not reset the bear market bottom characteristics. In this situation, since October did not hit a new low, it cannot be directly interpreted as risk release and the historical weight of the 60-week bear market has increased.
3. The summer low has been established, with a subjective probability of about 20%. ETH has regained its position above the resistance zone for the July rebound, and after pulling back, continues to push the lows higher; Even if the MVRV Z-Score does not fall below zero, the price continues to rise strongly. If this condition is fulfilled, it means the current market structure differs significantly from the previous three cycles, and the benchmark judgment of new lows in September and October should be discarded.
4. Verification Conditions and Judgment Boundaries
Price dimension: Focus on 1700 and the summer low below, while focus on the July rebound high and bear resistance zone above.
On-chain dimension: At the bottom of historical bear markets, ETH-MVRV Z-Score often falls below zero; NUPL, staking outflow ratio, network fees, realized losses, and other comprehensive risk indicators are generally close to 0.1. Currently, all these signals have not been triggered, so it cannot be confirmed that the bottom has been formed.
The next 60 days will be divided into two key market states: current sideways consolidation—is it a bottoming process or a brief equilibrium before the final round of decline in the mid-term correction? Accurately predicting a day's bottom or precisely locking at a low price between 1440 and 1490 lacks sufficient data support.
My benchmark judgment still favors a more meaningful reference low between late September and October, but only if it effectively breaks below the summer low, accompanied by collective on-chain indicator realignment, will the credibility of this scenario increase significantly; Conversely, if ETH rises above the July rebound resistance zone, I will directly overturn the previous benchmark judgment.
$BTC $ETH $OKB #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts at #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% The U.S. stock market just triggered a massive short squeeze—and crypto followed.
Cooling jobless claims and PPI strengthened rate-cut hopes, sending Treasury yields lower and forcing heavily shorted tech and storage names into aggressive covering.
The move then spilled into crypto:
$BTC and $ETH found support, with ETH showing stronger resilience from ETF flows.
Stock-linked tokens like $xSNDK and $xSPCX moved sharply higher, while small-cap memes mostly saw short-lived speculative pumps. $ZAMA
$ZAMA is gaining traction with +0.92% near $0.04737. Momentum is quietly building, and holding support could unlock another bullish leg.
EP: $0.0458–$0.0473
TP: $0.0495 / $0.0520 / $0.0555
SL: $0.0438[Pharaoh Market Watch]
Pharaoh bluntly said Goldman Sachs' $2.25 billion was worth it because it wasn't buying a fund company, but a ticket to the track of "letting Bitcoin lay eggs."
Let's first look at the transaction itself.
Goldman Sachs acquired NEOS Investments for up to $2.25 billion, with the transaction expected to close in Q1 2027. NEOS manages $30 billion in 19 options yield ETFs, with its core asset being BTCI, which is about $1.1 billion, and a Bitcoin yield ETF that earns premiums by selling call options and has an annualized distribution rate of about 27%.
Four months ago, Goldman Sachs applied for a Bitcoin covered call ETF but never pushed it. Now, directly buying the sector leader is essentially bypassing the "follow-up" path and going head-to-head with BlackRock's BITA. Bloomberg ETF analyst Balchunas said bluntly: "Now I understand why Goldman Sachs doesn't push it themselves—buying is better than following the crowd." ”
But don't be blinded by a 27% yield.
BTCI does not directly hold Bitcoin, but instead holds spot ETPs and sells options for rental income. It can generate cash flow when Bitcoin moves sideways or rises moderately, but when the price surges, the upside is capped. Over the past year, BTCI's price has dropped about 43%, with some dividends coming from principal returns. A high distribution rate does not equal high returns.
The real highlight of this acquisition is not BTCI itself.
In the past nine months, Goldman Sachs has acquired Innovator and NEOS, with total ETF assets surpassing $130 billion, making it the world's eighth largest actively managed ETF manager. One focuses on downside protection, the other on yield enhancement, both of which have been traded in both strategies of derivatives ETFs. This shows that Goldman Sachs is betting not on Bitcoin's rise or fall, but on Wall Street's structural need for "monthly cash intake"—retirement accounts over 55 need cash flow, which is more essential than young people seeking sudden wealth.
For the Bitcoin ecosystem, this is deeper than spot ETF approval. Spot ETFs turn Bitcoin into "tradable," while income ETFs turn it into "dividend-collecting." Two completely different types of capital—the former is speculative capital, the latter is allocation capital. If Goldman Sachs succeeds, more institutions will follow, and the participant structure and volatility characteristics of the crypto market will be rewritten.
Remember, Wall Street is packaging Bitcoin's volatility into wealth management products and selling them. This is much more worth pondering than short-term ups and downs! $BTC $ETH $OKB #高盛收购Neos, crypto ETFs are shifting toward earnings competition 【SharpLink 將 2 億美元 $ETH 交給 Lido 質押，LDO 迎來機構採用利多】
Ethereum 財庫公司 SharpLink 宣布，將價值 2 億美元的既有 ETH 透過 Lido 質押，並取得 wstETH，資產則由美國聯邦特許加密銀行 Anchorage Digital 託管。
SharpLink 不只可以持續累積 ETH，未來也能出售、贖回，或把 wstETH 作為 DeFi 抵押品，在維持流動性的同時提高資金使用效率。
對 ETH 而言，這代表上市公司開始把質押視為企業財庫的標準策略，若更多企業仿效，可能增加 ETH 質押比例、減少市場即時可售供給，並強化 Ethereum 作為收益型資產的定位。
SharpLink 選擇 Lido，等於替其流動性、安全性及機構適用性提供大型企業案例。Lido 會對產生的質押獎勵收取 10% 費用，部分分配給節點營運商，部分進入 DAO 金庫。
另外 $LDO 目前主要用途仍是治理，協議收入是否能有效反映到幣價，還要觀察 DAO 是否推出分潤、回購、銷毀或其他價值捕獲機制。When AI starts opening wallets to buy computing power: the micro-clearing revolution in the machine economy era
A few days ago, while looking at several open-source AI Agent frameworks running automated workflows, I encountered a particularly interesting real-world dilemma.
At that time, the AI Agent tried to call a third-party paid data API and simultaneously rent three seconds of temporary GPU computing power to run large model inference. Calculated by computing power consumption, the actual cost of that interaction was only $0.003. But when AI tried to checkout, the existing traditional Web2 payment channels completely blocked it.
Think about it: existing credit cards, bank cards, and Stripe payment interfaces are all designed specifically for human users.
They require users to enter their names, enter card numbers, receive mobile verification codes, and even go through manual KYC verification. Not to mention, in traditional card channels, a single transaction costs two to three cents per transaction deducted by two to three cents, plus a 3% commission. For an AI Agent that needs to perform thousands of high-frequency microtransactions every second, this traditional financial infrastructure is practically an impenetrable physical wall.
AI agents don't need any fancy graphical interfaces, nor will they queue at bank counters to open accounts. What they urgently need is a purely code- and protocol-based, millisecond-level micro-clearing network.
This is also why technical solutions based on the HTTP 402 protocol and signature-free smart wallets have suddenly become popular recently. Under the new machine payment paradigm, when an AI agent initiates a data request, it can directly attach a $0.001 crypto stablecoin in the code request header. Transactions are instantly confirmed on low-fee chains like Solana or Base, and the counterparty's server receives the on-chain credentials and responds milliseconds by releasing a hash power channel.
People often complained that aside from hype and transfers, cryptocurrencies have never found a truly large-scale physical application scenario.
That's because people used to habitually focus on human users, trying to compete with Web2's extremely smooth experience to attract people. But people overlook one fact: in the future, the majority of traffic and transaction behavior on the internet may not be humans at all, but hundreds of millions of AI Agents running nonstop 24/7.
M2M value exchange between machines has no emotional bias and does not require complex legal contracts; they only recognize deterministic code and on-chain real-time liquidation. This micropayment blue ocean driven by AI agents may be the hardest and most irreplaceable foundation for crypto technology.
Finally, here's a question for friends: In the next five years, do you think the first to inject a continuous stream of real payment demand into crypto networks will be the new Web2 retail users, or those AI agents with their own on-chain treasuries?
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Follow! Keep building your strategy! Stay steady!
This is a short 📉 trade
I don't just open a bearish candlestick at the sight of it
50 $ETH short orders
Average price: 1874.68
The price has now returned to around 1867
First, get a bit of floating profit
What really keeps me holding on
This is today's cross-market divergence
South Korean KOSPI surges 3.56%
U.S. tech stocks are also rising
$SNDK even surged about 15%.
According to the familiar script
US stocks rose
Risk appetite is rebounding
Crypto should also take off
But that's not the case
ETH did not follow the rise
Instead, it has pushed back from around 1899 to 1865
Even 1880 can't stand firm
The crypto beat is even worse
24-hour drop exceeded 11%
At least in the short term
Funds clearly prefer to chase US tech stocks and Korean chips
Crypto hardly gains much incremental capital
A rise in US stocks doesn't mean the crypto world must rise
When the stock market experiences a stronger profit-making effect,
Crypto, on the other hand, is more likely to lose attention and liquidity
——
The four-hour price has already fallen below MA5, MA10, and MA20
From 1880 to 1895, all are moving average resistance
The rebound cannot reclaim this area
The bearish structure has not changed
Let's first look at 1865 below
After breaking the chart, look at 1840 and 1820
I won't blindly chase short positions at low points
Wait until the rebound doesn't reach 1880 before continuing to position
If volume rises and it holds above 1895
Even surpassing 1920
This short selling logic failed
——
$BEAT
The current price is around $0.93
Down more than 11% in 24 hours
Trading volume exceeded 60 million USD
The price ahead is even more impressive
The cash-out price is even harsher now
The $1 dollar cannot rise again
In the short term, it remains weak
If the 0.84 area is breached,
It's easy to keep cutting liquidity
——
SNDK rose nearly 15% today
They've already written their money preferences all over their faces
Currently, the market is chasing AI storage and semiconductors
Not an average lift of all risk assets
The stronger it is
This further shows that crypto is not currently the main battleground for capital
However, I won't chase the higher price at this level
The price increase is too large
Be careful of intense shakeout during trading
——
OKB is one of the few in the crypto world to buck the trend and strengthen against the trend
The price has climbed back up to around $102
24-hour increase exceeds 7%
This is more like an independent market driven by its own ecosystem
This does not mean the entire crypto market has strengthened
Holding $100 can keep an eye on the situation
If it fails to break through the $105 mark for a long time,
Chasing high prices doesn't offer great value for money
——
So the logic behind this order is quite simple
What I short is not a rise in US stocks
I'm short on US stocks and Korean stocks—both are rising
Crypto still remains relatively weak and unable to keep up
A truly strong market
There won't be all good news outside
I was still falling down
From 1880 to 1895, it was impossible to recover
I kept holding on
But 100 times is no joke
Even if you look for the right direction, you must hold the strong line
Follow! Keep building your strategy! Stay steady!
Let's make sure this deal survives first
Then consider taking the full market price
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another If the AI bubble bursts, will BTC become a safe-haven asset, or will it fall along with Nvidia?
AI has become one of the most crowded narratives in global capital markets. Computing power, data centers, chips, and model companies have absorbed massive amounts of capital, and the market has begun discussing whether massive capital investments can yield sufficient returns.
If one day AI trading experiences a major correction, what will $BTC do?
Optimists believe BTC does not depend on the profits of any AI company, and its supply will not expand due to increased capital expenditure, making it a scarce asset outside of tech bubbles.
Pessimists argue that BTC is still essentially a highly volatile risk asset. If AI stocks crash and trigger US deleveraging, funds will prioritize selling liquidity positions, making it hard for BTC to remain unaffected.
Both judgments can occur, just in different chronological order.
The first stage is usually a liquidity shock.
When the market suddenly panics, investors often sell not the worst assets, but the ones that are easiest to sell. BTC is traded around the clock and has ample liquidity, and is likely to fall along with tech stocks. ETH, SOL, and AI concept coins may see even greater drawdowns, as they also face declining risk appetite and leveraged liquidations.
The second stage is asset repricing.
If the AI adjustment is simply due to overvaluations and earnings falling short of expectations, while the economy and financial system remain stable, funds may return to cash, US Treasuries, and undervalued tech stocks, and BTC may not benefit immediately.
If the AI bubble bursts further trigger credit issues, forcing the Federal Reserve to release liquidity, BTC may resume trading narratives of monetary easing, fiscal bailouts, and non-sovereign scarce assets.
This logic is very similar to the 2020 model: when a crisis occurs, BTC can be sold off as a risk asset; after policy starts to inject liquidity, it may become a more resilient asset for liquidity and currency depreciation trading.
Therefore, the conclusion that "AI crash is good for BTC" is a conclusion lacking a proper process.
What really needs to be watched is whether the AI adjustment will affect the credit market, whether the Fed will change policy, and whether ETFs and long-term holders continue to absorb chips during the decline.
$ETH and $SOL face even stricter questions: Are the growth of AI agents, stablecoin payments, and on-chain applications real demand, or stories magnified by the AI boom?
If real usage continues to grow, the price drop may just be a valuation reset; If so-called on-chain AI demand mainly relies on token speculation, the bubble bursting will cause both narratives to fade simultaneously.
On the first day the AI bubble burst, BTC may not be gold; Only when the market begins to debate who will rescue liquidity may BTC return to being that scarce asset not controlled by a single company.Terrible! Miners lose money every time they dig, Puell Multiple drops to 0.71
This is the ratio of $BTC miners' daily income to the average over the past year. Currently, miners' daily income is only 71% of the normal level.
What's even tougher is the cost—a listed mining company costs nearly $80,000 in cash to mine one BTC, while the token price is only 63,000, so mining loses 19,000. This year, public miners have already sold 28,000 BTC
But interestingly—miners aren't dumping their shares like crazy
MPI dropped to negative territory, and miners' reserves dropped from 41,900 to 41,900. Only 22 tokens were sold in just a few months, showing reluctance to sell, not clearing out
In 2018, Puell dropped to 0.28; in 2022, 0.35; and in 2024, 0.49. Every time it hits a low point, it follows a major rally
ETFs are buying, miners aren't selling, supply shrinks, demand increases—I've seen this scene before
Just 🚀 hold onto it