Orbit Post Sitemap
Why is BTC sitting flat at 63,000 while $XSNDK rose 14% in one day?
This is a leveraged token shorting NASDAQ on 3x, with a 24h +14.07% and an intraday volatility of 18%—among BTC market volumes down 87% and breadth with only 8% gains and 6 losses, it stands out as the only standout outlier.
Framework that can be taken away: Leveraged coins that "short US stocks" are being snapped up like crazy = funds are betting on "Nasdaq topping, risk off." To put it bluntly, it's a free macro thermometer.
XSPY only dipped +0.67%, while XSPCX turned down by -3.43%. Internal price segmentation = funds shorting in a picked direction, not mindless stock market speculation.
Blind spot: The snapshot only shows price and volume, not position structure or rate, so it's impossible to confirm whether institutions are building positions or leveraged coins are mechanically rebalancing short squeezes. To confirm "risk off," you have to look at the next round: if volume continues to surge + Nasdaq really drops overnight + other inverse coins synchronize, all three will be valid.
This XSNDK jumped 14%. Do you believe someone really built positions for the Nasdaq peak, or is it just a short-term short squeeze for leveraged coins? Share in the comments which scenario you're afraid of coming true and explain the reasoning.
Crypto assets carry high risk. The above is purely personal nonsense and does not constitute investment advice.
#OKX星球 $BTC $XSNDK #币股联动 #杠杆反向$SNDK
· Long position (pullback in): wait for a pullback to close to 1,480-1,500, then buy long. Stop loss at 1,430, take profit at 1,600.
· Short position (speculating on a pullback): Sharp rise near 1,580 - 1,600 is blocked and test short. Stop loss at 1,620, take profit at 1,520.
In short: Don't chase long positions after a sharp rise; just wait for a pullback near 1,480 to buy or to take short positions near 1,600. Strictly control stop-losses to prevent flash crashes at high levels.$BTC WHALES ARE BUYING BTC — BUT THE PRICE HASN'T 🐋 BROKEN OUT YET
Large wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC have accumulated more than 20,000 BTC (~$1.2 billion) since the end of July, while BTC is still held below the $65K zone.
It is worth noting that large cash flows are accumulating while the price is sideways. If BTC breaks through and closes firmly above $65K, the recovery momentum could be confirmed stronger.
Conversely, if it continues to fail below $65K, selling pressure could still return.
Are the whales preparing for a breakout, or are they accumulating before a downward sweep?8. Morning plan for the small yellow croaker on the 14th:
The decline in US July CPI inflation exceeded market expectations, and the market's pricing in the Fed's rate cut in September has significantly increased, with the medium-term monetary easing logic continuing to support gold prices.
However, the weekly initial jobless claims data slightly exceeded expectations, showing some resilience in the job market, which somewhat dampened expectations for aggressive rate cuts and became a catalyst for a short-term pullback in gold prices.
As for the current market, this pullback is only a temporary technical recovery; the long-term bullish pattern has not been completely broken, so blind short-term chasing is not advisable in the long term.
Trading advice: Stay in the 4340-4310 range, target 4380 breakout, keep up near 4450【挑战日记 Day 5】1k→10w
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 $BTC
CPI 刚符合预期，PPI 又降温——生产端消费端一起软，9 月加息紧迫性在降。
但联储内部还在吵：有人要加息，有人说利率已经够了。宏观放缓，定价分裂，盘面就只能磨。
✔ 复盘
- 空单入场 65,120，浮盈继续扩大
- BTC 现约 63,400，仍困在 63k–64k
- 昨天我报 🟡，今天继续：不加仓，只管理利润
✔ 关键位
- 支撑：63,000；破了才打开下台阶
- 压力：64,000–64,500
- 失效：站稳 64,800，空单清掉
✔ 今日计划
- 再锁一部分利润，仓位降到「隔夜不慌」
- 反抽 64k 减仓，不追空不抄底
- 分歧市最赚钱的是忍住
✔ 铁律
宏观有分歧时，仓位比观点更重要。
你现在怎么做？
🟢 继续拿空
🟡 大部分止盈观望
🔴 准备翻多
$BTC #1k到10w挑战Someone else is telling me again about the Middle East escalation, saying "War has broken out, $BTC should rise as a safe-haven asset." I advise you to discard that narrative first. This round, the US is imposing "unprecedented" sanctions on Iran and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The market is pricing it as "oil prices will rise, inflation will return, and don't expect interest rate cuts. #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #AIInfraEarningsWatch #SpaceX99%ValueFromAI The bearish pattern remains unchanged; a rebound is a bullish inducement—in-depth analysis and trading strategies for the crypto market in mid-August
As of August 14, 2026, Bitcoin traded near $63,530, while Ethereum hovered around $1,860, both in a low-level range after a deep correction this year. Spot ETF inflows have plummeted by more than 80% since mid-July, with long-term holders increasing their holdings noticeably slowing. Coupled with August, the weakest month in Bitcoin's history, the overall bearish market pattern has not changed despite the short-term rebound. This article deeply analyzes the current market structure from three dimensions: technical, liquidity, and macro environment, and proposes clear operational strategies and risk control frameworks.
1. Market Status: "False Prosperity" Amid Weak Fluctuations
2026 will be a highly challenging year for the crypto market. After Bitcoin hit a yearly high of about $97,860 on January 14, it entered a seven-month downward channel, hitting a low of $57,747 on July 1, marking a cumulative year-to-date drop of 27.55%. As of August 14, Bitcoin's price was around $63,530, seemingly a roughly 14% rebound from the late June low, but this felt more like a technical correction after a deep correction than a trend reversal.
Ethereum's performance was even weaker. In June, it dropped as much as 21.67%, with rebound momentum clearly weaker than Bitcoin's. At the end of July, it barely held above $1,928, then came under pressure and fell back again in August. This divergence pattern of "Bitcoin holding firm, Bitcoin being weaker" precisely confirms that the market is still in a phase of contraction in risk appetite—funds are prioritized for the most liquid assets, while high-beta assets continue to be sold off.
What's even more noteworthy is that August was considered the "darkest hour" in Bitcoin's historical seasonal patterns. Historical data shows that August's median change was -7.87%, the worst month of the year, with an average return of only -0.64%. Since 2022, monthly candlesticks closing in August have almost become the norm. This means that even without additional bearish catalysts, the market itself is still facing strong seasonal downward pressure.
2. Technical Side: Downward continuation under the head and shoulders top pattern
From the three-day moving average, Bitcoin has been operating in a classic "head and shoulders top" pattern since early March 2026. The left shoulder formed from March to April, the head in May, and the right shoulder gradually formed from the rebound at the end of June. A typical feature of this pattern is: a relatively low peak (shoulder) on each side of the central high (head), which is a textbook-level bearish structure.
The current price is at the end of the right shoulder. During the rebound since June 30, a key warning sign is continued shrinking volume. A right-shoulder rise accompanied by shrinking volume is a classic sign of trend "exhaustion" and further validates the effectiveness of the head and shoulders top pattern. Based on the measured decline of this pattern, once the neckline (around $54,000) is effectively broken, the theoretical downside target will point toward around $41,266.
In the short term, Bitcoin is trapped within a narrow range between $66,885 and $60,965. $66,885 is a strong resistance level that has been repeatedly tested recently, and is the first hurdle that bulls must overcome to regain momentum; $60,965 is a key watershed that determines market direction—if the three-day close falls below this level, the support below will be broken, and the price will likely accelerate down to the $54,000 neckline area. On the flip side, only a resurpass above $82,931 can truly reverse the current bearish structure, but in the current environment, the probability of achieving this target is as slim as testing the lower levels.
Ethereum's technical outlook is equally bleak. It remains under pressure below the $2,000 threshold, with small-cycle cycles repeatedly oscillating and accumulating momentum, essentially forming a downward relay pattern. Each intraday rebound is only a minor test of resistance above; without a major rapid rebound, there is no reversal.
3. Liquidity and Macro Environment: Institutional retreat, long-term holders are on the sidelines
If technicals reveal "what the market is doing," then capital explains "who is doing this."
The flow of funds in Bitcoin spot ETFs is the best window to observe institutional sentiment. Data shows that weekly net inflows for ETFs fell from a high of $197 million on July 10 to $33.79 million on July 24, a sharp drop of 55% in one week and an 83% drop from the July peak. This means that although institutional investors have not experienced panic selling, their marginal buying willingness has cooled significantly. Fund trading seats may be leaving, coinciding with the market entering its weakest cycle of the year; this "institutional silence" itself creates a strong bearish atmosphere.
On-chain data presents a more complex picture. The number of whale entities holding at least 1,000 bitcoins saw a slight rebound in late July, rising from 1,263 to 1,267, indicating signs of some whales positioning at low levels. However, the behavior of long-term holders sends the opposite signal—the "Hodler net position change" indicator quickly dropped from 29,838 bitcoins on July 11 to 15,766 bitcoins on July 26, a decline of 47% in two weeks. Although long-term holders are still accumulating their holdings, the pace has clearly slowed, indicating that some staunch holders are becoming cautious and preparing for a potential market correction.
What's even more alarming is that the current divergence index between whales and retail investors is only 4.4, indicating that large and small funds move highly in alignment over the daily cycle. This consistency has two sides: when the market direction is clear, the trend is amplified; but once the whales turn, retail investors find it hard to hold the overall situation alone.
On the macro level, the global market narrative has undergone a fundamental shift in 2026. The Wintermute report points out that market expectations have rapidly shifted from "when to cut rates" to "whether rate hikes are needed." Inflationary pressures are rising and macro data is hot, causing the crypto market's momentum to continue cooling down. Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 remains above 0.6, indicating that crypto assets have not deviated from the risk budget framework of the U.S. stock market. Meanwhile, the AI sector's siphoning effect on capital has further diluted liquidity in the cryptocurrency market.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts in succession, #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% $BTC $ETH $OKB On the same macroeconomics paper, US stocks scored 100 points, while BTC was still standing at 63K.
Last night's comparison was really interesting.
PPI came in below expectations
→ Easing of inflationary pressures
→ U.S. Treasury yields are declining
→ Rising expectations for rate cuts
→ US stocks hit record highs directly.
A textbook of "macroeconomic benefits."
But what about BTC?
Around 63K, it remains completely unmoved.
Don't rush to interpret it as "charging."
What truly deserves attention is:
In the past, when such macro data came out, BTC was often the first to surge.
But now it has become:
US stocks hit new highs, while BTC remained flat.
This indicates that the market's pricing logic is becoming increasingly differentiated.
US stocks have AI, earnings, buybacks, and institutional funds taking over;
And BTC's biggest problem right now may not be a lack of positive news, but rather:
When the good news arrives, who will buy?
So next, I'm not focusing on the PPI, nor what the Fed says about it.
Let's look at one thing:
If US stocks continue to hit new highs and long-term bond yields keep falling, can BTC break above 64K or 65K with increased volume, or even challenge 66K again?
If the macro environment becomes more favorable but BTC still can't rise—
Then stop comforting yourself by saying "the main force is gathering strength."
Sometimes sideways trading isn't the calm before a storm, but rather the capital really hasn't returned.
and a single examination paper,
The US stock market has already closed its course.
BTC is still looking for a spot in the exam room. #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen $BTC Typical characteristics of the latter half of a bear market
It's becoming more and more obvious—
$BTC The proportion of short-term holders continues to decline
This is no coincidence; similar signals have appeared in the later stages of previous bear markets:
· There are fewer and fewer short-term traders
· New capital is clearly inactive
· Market attention has dropped significantly
Meanwhile, chips are slowly settling into the hands of long-term holders.
The toughest phase of a bear market
Often, it's not a daily sharp drop, but rather—
By the end, even fewer people were discussing it.
Key next key indicators to watch
When the proportion of short-term holders rebounds from a low point, it means new participants and new demand are entering the market again.
The bottom is never shouted out,
It was made through endurance, and also waited for it.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Sigh, just woke up and saw the Fed throw another big bomb—the 2026 PCE forecast was directly raised to 3.6%, which is even more persistent than most people think. Interest rates haven't changed, still stuck at 3.50%-3.75%. Previously, the market was unnecessarily worried about further rate hikes, but now it's a temporary relief.
But that's only half a relief. Employment data is soft, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping to around 44%, so the crypto world finally doesn't have to watch dot plots every day. But looking back, the shadow of recession is looming again, the dollar is surging, the 10-year US Treasury yield has soared to 4.1%, and the knife over risk assets hasn't been removed.
Let's talk about whoever takes the money this week. Digital gold's two brothers, $PAXX and $XAUT, rose nearly 9 points, steadily happy; Solid income supporting them like $UNI and $CRV also performed well. The unlucky ones are meme coins and political concept coins, especially $CRO, which lost $360 million because Trump Media's deal with Crypto.com fell through, causing $CRO to drop 14%. It's a miserable situation.
However, there is good news that many have overlooked—before the Senate recess, the Clarity Act was pushed forward to create a legal framework for the crypto industry. If it succeeds, it would be another achievement for Trump following the stablecoin bill. Clear rules are the long-term major positive.
So my view is simple: $BTC will most likely still hover between 62k and 66k, waiting for the FOMC to take effect; As for companies like $XRP and $ADA that directly benefit from clear regulation, their performance should outperform the broader market going forward. What about you? Are you betting on interest rate trends, or betting on legislative border reopening?
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen#Strategy再卖1690枚BTC corporate treasuries diverged Watch closely, my right hand is drawing a Ace of Spades, and your eyes are completely captivated by the white dove flying out from my left hand.
This is the most basic trick in the magic world — but at the crypto gambling table, the main bookmakers act much more convincingly than I am.
Tonight, while organizing my cards and item boxes backstage in the theater, I casually posted the $APT market board. It dipped slightly by 0.62% in 24 hours, with the price curled up around $0.56. The overall trend was flat and unremarkable, like an unshuffled old card. Most retail investors were watching the hot sectors with sudden fluctuations, dozing off, thinking this was a stagnant pool without a trace.
But this is exactly the kind of "visual error" the bookmakers want you to see.
Behind the scenes, the cards have long been flipping. Look at those masked data: the 1-hour RSI has quietly pushed to 37.2, pushed into a highly elastic range (which fits the buy signal below 38); The short-term Bollinger Bands have been forcibly induced to hit a 26% low point, just 0.5% from the lower band; The medium-term Bollinger Bands have even narrowed to a 21% freezing point.
In my industry, this is called "shifting the focus." The market makers deliberately cover the market with a slight drop shadow, creating the illusion of an imminent breakdown and fall, forcing the impatient spectators to cut losses and exit. Once the scattered cards on the table are cleaned clean, the hidden rally technique in the sleeve is instantly triggered.
This is not a decline at all, but a carefully orchestrated low-level trap illusion.
I won't blindly chase cards in broad daylight. I want the dealer to master this move and enter the trap one second before it triggers.
🎩 Illusion Entry Layout ($APT):
🎯 Entry Point: $0.54 (-2.8% from current)
✅ Take-Profit Target 1: $0.58 (+3.9%)
✅ Take-Profit Target 2: $0.59 (+5.6%)
🛑 Stop Loss: $0.48 (-13.9%)
Once the hidden cards are fully revealed, $0.54 is the moment when the fake becomes real and the bird wins. As for those retail investors still watching the show? They are destined to stare blankly at their empty hats.#CPIPPIEaseFedSplit Many people are optimistic about a target but are unwilling to buy it at the current price. The reason is simple: buying now is because the price hasn't fallen to your psychological level; If you keep waiting, the funds will just sit idle again. And the current macro environment makes this issue even more worth discussing. US July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, down from June's 3.5%; Core CPI also fell from 2.6% to 2.5%. On the surface, this is a clear positive signal: inflation is cooling down. But breaking it down, the situation is not so simple. Gasoline prices fell by about 2.9%, and the decline in energy prices dragged down overall CPI, indicating that the urgency for the Fed to continue raising rates is diminishing. Meanwhile, prices for some services remain strong, such as medical care and airfare, which are still rising. So what the market is really trading now is not just "CPI decline," but when exactly will the Fed truly pivot? 🐸 ⸻ What does it mean for crypto? If the market continues to reinforce expectations that "the Fed does not need to tighten further," risk assets are usually supported. The first thing to focus on is: $BTC If $BTC can stabilize rather than surging rapidly, then funds are likely to start seeking opportunities with higher Beta levels. Next, it's worth watching: $ETH $SOL $BNB $XRP Beyond that, narrative assets: $ONDO — RWA $LINK — Or$SKHYNIX
After three days of strong rebound, the fundamentals are actually quite good
But the lowest was 980
Now it's around 1200
Don't rush to go now, just wait a little longer
To get a good price,
The best strategy is to make a small pullback and then move up again
Location near 1120$APR Baby, listen carefully 👂
I'm pinning all my hopes of getting even back on you!!
Before, $BEAT blew 😃 up my little wallet, $BICO soldered me halfway up the mountain...
This time, I'm going long and counting on you to prove yourself and bring me back some milk tea money + fees 💅
Why did I pick you—
A few days ago, didn't you jump straight from just over 0.2 to around 0.6? Although it's now pulling back to around 0.48, the volume is solid and unleashed, not a dead fish~
Plus, you're the top liquid staking brand in the Monad ecosystem, aprMON, plus a "APR Boost" with tens of millions of coins in incentives. After a pullback, it's not ✨ impossible to push back to the 0.55–0.62 high
As long as it doesn't fall below 0.30–0.35, I believe you've got another wave~
You mustn't let me down!! Bring me back to health, okay?
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% 8-14 | Korean Stock Market (Beijing Time 09:00 Open) Opening Forecast $KORU $SNDK $SKHYNIX Uptrend, Tech Chip Short Selling Gets Stuck in a Massive Trap.
BTC and ETFs are still trending through the market.
Background: Overnight US PPI inflation data fell short of expectations, prompting another surge in the storage sector; SK Hynix ADR (SKHY) closed up +8.5%, with Micron MU and SanDisk both closing sharply higher.
Note: ADR gains carry a premium. The opening gains of Korean domestic stocks are generally lower than those of US ADRs and will not be fully replicated.
Korean stocks closed yesterday: SK Hynix 1.593 million KRW; KOSPI closed at 6,813 points.
The main cap is KOSPI / KR200
Expect call auction to open higher by +1.4%~+2.1%.
The index is driven by storage weights; After two consecutive days of sharp gains, a large amount of profit-taking has accumulated in the market. The high-opening followed by a pullback remains the most likely scenario, so beware of favorable momentum triggering a pullback.
SK Hynix (000660.KRX, KRW)
Yesterday's closing price for Korean stocks: 1.593 million
Expected call auction opening range: 1.618-1.642 million KRW, opening 1.6%-3.1% higher
Key intraday price levels
- Intraday watershed support: 1.6 million KRW (after opening higher, the dividing line between strength and weakness; if it holds, intraday strength is relatively strong; If it breaks below effectively, it is likely to rally and then pull back)
- Strong support: 1.56 million (key intraday platform yesterday)
- First pressure: 1.67 million; Strong resistance: 1.7 million integer level
Three opening scenarios
1️⃣ Scenario 1: High opening pulse surges and then fluctuates back (highest probability)
At the open, it surged near 164-167, but volume couldn't keep up, domestic investors took profits, the high shifted downward, and a long upper shadow appeared.
👉 Practical Operation: Not chasing higher opens, waiting for pullbacks to observe the 1.6 million support momentum.
2️⃣ Scenario 2: Strong Opening Continues (Medium Probability)
If it pulls back without breaking below 1.6 million, it will rise above 1.67 million on high volume; Samsung Electronics needs to rally with increased volume; Only SK Hynix is pushing up alone, with uncertainty about sustainability. It will directly drive KORU to strengthen.
3️⃣ Scenario 3: Opens high, then closes to green (low probability)
Domestic investors concentrated taking profits, foreign buying weakened; Effectively breaking below 1.56 million, interrupting the short-term rebound momentum.
Samsung Electronics
It opened higher simultaneously, with smaller fluctuations than SK Hynix.
Verification signal: SK Hynix surges, but if Samsung struggles to keep up, it means the sector's sustainability is in doubt.
Market Watch Rules (Beijing Time)
1. 08:20 Call Auction, prioritize SK Hynix's high open, serving as the market's indicator.
2. The highest and lowest points in the 30 minutes before market open, serving as the dividing line between strength and weakness throughout the day.
3. Volume Mnemonic: Volume increases on the rise, shrinking volume on pullbacks = strong; High open, high price with shrinking volume, beware of pullbacks.
Risk focus
1. KORU 2x Leverage ETF is highly volatile; after a gap open, pullbacks can also be very damaging. Strictly avoid buying at high levels.
2. After two consecutive days of sharp rises, short-term sentiment is overheated; PPI only eases inflation, while in the medium to long term, HBM demand and memory chip prices will still be relying on the market.
3. The performance of Korean stocks throughout the day today will also reverse-channel sentiment in tonight's U.S. storage sector. #CPI与PPI同步降温, interest rate rate divergence widens #芯片股领涨, Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten days #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another $LAB 대규모 언락을 앞두고, 시장의 흡수 능력이 아닌 매도 압력의 실체가 드러날 가능성이 높다. 과연 이 정체된 가격대는 매집의 결과인가, 아니면 매도 물량을 기다리는 대기 수요의 부재인가? - $LAB은 수 주째 극히 좁은 거래 범위에 갇혀 있으며, 거래량과 관심도 모두 현저히 낮은 상태다. 언락은 시장에 새로 풀리는 공급량이라는 단순한 사실만으로도 가격 하방 압력의 핵심 변수다. - 과거 $BEAT에서 관찰된 사례는 유동성이 얇아진 상황에서 언락이 신뢰 붕괴와 급격한 가격 하락으로 이어질 수 있음을 보여준다. 이는 $LAB이 직면한 시나리오의 유효한 참고점이다. - 같은 시장 내 상대적 강세를 보이는 $ALLO와 극단적 반응성을 보이는 $APR은 언락 이벤트에서 소외된 자금이 이동할 수 있는 대안처로 보인다. 다만 급격한 움직임 추격은 리스크가 크다. - $BICO는 시장 관심이 지속적으로 냉각될 경우 언락에 따른 취약성이 부각될 수 있는 대기 상태다. 시장 구조와 기대 차이U.S. Vice President Vance declares: On the Iran issue, the U.S. must "end it strongly!!
Key Points:
Vance's speech sent three major signals: the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, and oil prices are falling; The U.S. retains its "unused" pressure tools against Iran; The core goal is to keep oil prices affordable, ultimately ending with the U.S. dominant.
Impact on BTC/ETH
Short-term bearish but medium-term holding for turnaround. Currently, BTC has fallen below 63,000 USDT, and ETH is under pressure simultaneously. The logic is:
· Oil Price and Inflation Logic: The Strait of Hormuz situation is recurring (accounting for about 20% of global shipping oil). High oil prices drive up inflation expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, and tightening liquidity directly negatively impacts risk assets—BTC has recently fallen alongside oil prices, as has been proven multiple times.
· Risk aversion diversion: When geopolitical conflicts escalate, funds flow into the US dollar first, putting pressure on gold and BTC simultaneously, so the short-term "digital gold" risk aversion narrative does not hold.
However, if the strait truly stabilizes and oil prices continue to fall, easing inflationary pressures will open room for rate cuts, and improved macro liquidity could serve as a catalyst for a mid-term rebound in BTC/ETH. In the short term, focus on oil price trends and ETF capital flows.
$BTC $ETH $KO | Coca-Cola
Current Price: $87.59
Coca-Cola continues to deliver steady growth. Q2 2026 revenue rose 7% to $13.4B, while EPS climbed 16% to $1.03. The company also raised its full-year comparable EPS growth outlook to 9–10%.
At $87.59, $KO remains a strong defensive name to watch as global beverage demand stays resilient. 👀
#DailyOrbit @OKX中文 #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit 🐸 PPI tháng 7 của Mỹ vừa cho thấy tín hiệu hạ nhiệt khá rõ: PPI YoY giảm từ 5.5% xuống 4.7%, Core PPI giảm từ 4.7% xuống 4.2%, trong khi dữ liệu theo tháng cũng thấp hơn kỳ vọng. Trước đó, CPI cũng giảm từ 3.5% xuống 3.4%, Core CPI từ 2.6% xuống 2.5%. Nói đơn giản: Lạm phát đang nguội dần. Cộng thêm số đơn xin trợ cấp thất nghiệp tăng lên 209,000, thị trường đang có thêm lý do để tin rằng Fed không cần quá vội vàng nâng lãi suất trong tháng 9. Nhưng vấn đề nằm ở chỗ: Dữ liệu$POPMART | Pop Mart
Current Price: $19.72
Pop Mart delivered explosive growth in 2025, with revenue surging 185% YoY to RMB 37.12B and profit jumping 308%. The Monsters, led by Labubu, generated RMB 14.16B — but investors are now watching whether Pop Mart can build the next major IP beyond Labubu.
At $19.72, $POPMART remains an interesting consumer-brand stock to watch as global expansion continues. 👀
#DailyOrbit @OKX中文 👀 Brothers, this rebound isn't a broad-sweeping bull market, but a three-stage rocket of a "liquidity power transition"! Off the rhythm, and you'll lose everything!
Don't fantasize like before, where whenever BTC rises, altcoins will rise to prominence. This round of gameplay has completely changed—funds will only be pushed to the most certain places, and in three steps:
---
Act One: Headquarters Raid (BTC)
Stop talking about the knockoff season! Macro easing + regulatory unfreezing—whales and sovereign wealth funds only recognize 'digital gold' as a safe card. Sustained net ETF inflows are the only signal—this step is a strategic position building phase. If BTC doesn't set the stage steady, there's no hope from the rest.
To put it plainly: big money should get ahead of BTC, don't rush to buy knockoffs. Wait for the signal of continuous net inflows from ETFs before making a move.
---
Act Two: The Settlement Layer War (ETH)
Once BTC's "shelves" are filled with money, the narrative must shift to "where money is generated." Stablecoin settlement, RWA tokenization, AI agent autonomous trading—these things don't happen on mainnet or L2, so how can MEME do it? ETH plays the role of a financial superhighway.
Keep a close watch on two indicators: daily active stablecoins + RWA locked amount. This is the decisive factor in the middle game; only when the data moves can ETH take over.
To put it plainly: BTC is setting the stage, ETH is starting to perform, but you need to see if there's real living water on the chain—don't just listen to stories.
---
Act 3: Assault Consecutive Harvesting (OKB)
Once liquidity and narrative are priced on the ETH layer, hot money will inevitably seek highly elastic outlets. X Layer's real user growth, gas consumption, and app revenue are OKB's core buttons. This step is the beta charge of the whole arena—fastest but also the most aggressive.
To put it plainly: the last high-elasticity stocks that rise quickly and fall hard—you have to run faster than a rabbit.
---
Verification Game (Crucial!) ): The trilogy won't play at a constant pace, you have to keep an eye on these signals:
· BTC's Touchstone: Is the ETF Net Inflow for Three Consecutive Days? (This is the only proof for big money to enter)
· ETH's Life-and-Death Line: Are on-chain gas for RWA and AI agents fluctuating? (This is real evidence of the narrative being realized)
· OKB's Tipping Point: Has X Layer's Daily Active Users Suddenly Jumped by an Order of Magnitude? (This is a signal of hot money rushing in)
Here comes the most critical question:
If demand for AI proxies (Act Two) surges before institutional ETFs (Act One), ETH and OKB may skip BTC to jump ahead on their own, or even re-resonate.
Whoever is first verified by the data will be the first to sound the money printer in this round. What you should bet on now is not the script, but which indicator will trigger the red light first.
---
💎 To sum up a simple saying:
This rebound is a three-stage rocket—BTC sets the stage first, ETH performs the show, and OKB charges last. But the rhythm may be disrupted, and AI narratives could prematurely ignite ETH and OKB. Keep a close eye on the data, don't guess sentiment—whichever indicator moves first, you lean toward that side.
Brothers, do you think this round will strictly follow the order BTC→ETH→OKB, or will AI narratives get ahead of the pack? Comment section: Split bye! 👇
(Pure nonsense, not investment advice. If you go at the wrong pace, you'll lose everything. Don't get carried away!) ）$CORE | Favorable narratives: Why do they always choose to release concentrated early morning?
Long-term CORE holders often notice a fixed pattern: whenever the market is consolidating and bottoming out and market sentiment is low, various long-term positive narratives are always released in the early hours.
Most people passively receive information and cannot clearly see the underlying logic behind the spread. During the day, traders are online, and everyone rationally discerns information based on market conditions and on-chain data. Grand visions can easily be distorted by real data.
Most investors rest in the early morning, their rational vigilance lowers, and forward concepts are more likely to take root. The core purpose is to subtly change holding expectations, stabilize market holdings, and prevent concentrated sell-offs.
Recently, the market has been volatile, with a lack of off-exchange incremental funds and weak ecosystem activity. Whenever market sentiment hits a low point, long-term narratives like the Bitcoin power grid emerge on time. Long-term plans are hard to verify in the short term, which is perfect to appease trapped holders.
The contradiction is clear: the narrative blueprint grows grander, but on-chain data doesn't lie. DEX liquidity is sluggish, incremental funds have long been absent, and reality and the future are starkly contrasting.
The various narratives released in the early morning are essentially just tools for maintaining emotional stability. They can stabilize confidence in the short term, but market reversals rely on real progress and repeated storytelling cannot counter real capital supply and demand.
Do you think frequently releasing long-term narratives can sustainably support market expectations?
⚠️ Risk warning: Discussion is only about market logic and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies carry extremely high risk; participate rationally.Macro Implementation: Data "Triple Hit," Risk Assets Embrace the Favorite Scenario
Latest Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, and PPI collectively point to the core logic: moderate economic cooling + continued inflation decline + strengthened Fed rate cut expectations. This "Goldilocks" condition eliminates tightening fears, reopening the liquidity floodgates.
📈 Core Asset Trend Analysis
U.S. Stocks (Nasdaq) | Clearly Bullish 🚀
Core Logic: High-growth stock valuations depend on future cash flows. Falling interest rates directly raise their valuation ceiling, with capital more willing to concentrate on AI and tech growth stocks.
Key Picks: NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, and the semiconductor sector are most favored (bank stocks are neutral due to slowing loan demand).
Bitcoin ($BTC) | Positive Rating ★★★★
Core Logic: The macro combination puts pressure on the dollar index and lowers U.S. Treasury yields. BTC, as the global liquidity "barometer," directly benefits from fiat liquidity overflow.
Ethereum ($ETH) | Positive Rating ★★★★★
Core Logic: ETH combines the dual attributes of "crypto asset + tech growth stock." During the liquidity turning point from tight to loose, its beta attribute is more elastic, often outperforming BTC in gains.
💡 Summary: The data delivers a perfect script of "cooling without crashing" to the market. In the short term, follow the liquidity recovery trend, focusing on the tech growth sector and ETH's rebound elasticity.闪迪今天暴涨13.67%，年内涨了550%，从西数拆分以来涨了5900%。同一天$BTC 从65000跌到62912，1.22亿美金多单爆仓。
· SanDisk投资者日给出FY2028-2030目标：营收中高双位数增长、毛利率约80%、FCF利润率约50%
· 存储板块集体飙升：美光涨4.23%、西数涨7.31%、SK海力士涨7.29%、希捷涨4.91%
· 同一天BTC ETF净流出1132枚BTC（-7224万美金），ETH ETF却净流入3947枚ETH（+747万美金）
兄弟们，看出门道了吗？资金在往AI存储跑，不在往加密跑。SanDisk毛利率80%，矿企卖币维生；存储板块集体暴涨，BTC跌破63000。同一个"风险偏好"环境下，钱选了AI不选加密。这不是巧合，是结构性的资金分流——AI基础设施叙事正在吸走原本会流入加密的投机资金。
S&P 500创新高了，纳指连涨两天，闪迪单日涨13%，但BTC却跌破63000。兄弟们记住这个规律：美股涨BTC不涨的时候，说明资金认为"AI是更好的投机标的"。这个趋势不改变，BTC很难走出独立行情。
我赌Q3结束前BTC在62000-66000之间磨，突破不了。仓位4成，0杠杆，等AI叙事退潮再看。
#闪迪 #AI存储 #BTC🎯 存储芯片板块今晚集体暴动，领头的正是SanDisk。盘中直接从1427拉升至1580，单日涨幅近15个点，Hynix跟涨5.6%，Micron涨5.28%，整个存储赛道集体起飞。这种走法已经不是简单的情绪共振，而是资金在重新定价整个AI存储链条。 🔥 引爆点来自SanDisk投资者日。管理层扔出一份激进到令人侧目的目标：2028至2030财年营收复合增速达到中双位数，毛利率剑指80%，营业利润率75%，同时承诺将所有超额现金全部返还股东。翻译成大白话就是：我不仅能赚钱，还能把赚到的钱全部分给你们。 📊 80%毛利率在半导体行业是什么概念？英伟达也就这个水平。一家存储公司敢把毛利率目标定到与英伟达比肩，说明管理层对AI驱动的存储需求有极强信心。更关键的是，他们敢直接给到三年后的指引，敢把话放这么远，本身就是一种表态：AI存储的长期逻辑不是讲故事，而是算得清的账。 🧩 把时间线拉出来看，整个叙事链条非常完整。马斯克前两天刚说AI算力需求要达到10吉瓦级别，SanDisk今天就把三年路线图甩到桌上。SpaceX说9月AI业务收入超过所有其他业务总和，SanDisk说三年后毛利率8Tether's first full audit: unqualified opinion ≠ full transparency
Conclusion: On 8/13 of the US East Coast, Tether completed its first full audit: KPMG U.S. issued an unqualified opinion on the 2025 fiscal year financial statements of the Issuing Entity in El Salvador, with reserves of $6.814 billion overlied; The financial statements and opinion letters have not been published.
Background: Previously, only BDO quarterly attestation; In 2021, it was fined $41 million by the CFTC for "falsely claiming to have undergone routine audits" (according to The Defiant).
Mechanism: According to U.S. GAAP/AICPA standards (not the GENIUS Act required by PCAOB), KPMG counts gold bars; The audit targets are physical reports, not on-chain USDT (according to The Defiant).
Impact: USDT holders are temporarily unable to verify their own status; The key issue in the US is the 2028-07-18 GENIUS Act deadline (according to The Defiant); The industry may follow suit.
Discussion: How do you verify issuer reserves when financial statements are not publicly disclosed?
Source: Tether official announcement (verified by first parties); Cointelegraph, The Defiant (verified by independent media).Here's a piece of news that was swept away by the market but carried significant weight: U.S. media reported that the U.S. military has lost at least 45 "Reaper" drones in the war against Iraq, about 25% of the total number of these models, with losses exceeding $1.3 billion in this alone. The consumption of war has never been just news headlines; it gradually seeps into oil prices, military spending, and risk appetite. Combined with the U.S. imposing "unprecedented" sanctions on Iran and the blockade of Hormuz, the Middle East is unlikely to cool down in the short term. For risk assets like $BTC, this kind of geopolitical noise is more of suppression than boost—those who understand understand.Note a small divergence across assets: gold has fallen about 1% from its two-month high, trading around 4366, while silver's long crowding rate once surged to an extreme 94% a couple of days ago. Safe-haven metals are taking a breather at high levels, but $BTC still hasn't gained any safe-haven premium within the 63,000 range. The most counterintuitive point in the past six months is that the "crypto digital gold" narrative collectively fails during true safe-haven moments—gold rises but it doesLet's talk about a mindset that works just as well as something you ground at the poker table and apply to trading: don't be a results-oriented person. If you close a trade too early and lose a big profit, it's even more frustrating than losing money. Many people chase the next round with emotion, add positions in retaliation, and then turn what was originally the right direction into a loss. To judge the quality of a trade, look at the logic and odds at the moment you bet, not whether you made the best in the later round. Losing less isn't wrong; it's about trying to recover with emotion. Leaving the table and taking a sip of water is better than staring at a candlestick that hasn't fully been conquered.🌍 Macro Data Insights: Liquidity Depletion 📌 under Volume Reduction Game [Total Market Cap] $2.159 trillion | 24h -0.04% | The overall market cap fluctuated 📌 narrowly around the $2.15 trillion mark [$BTC Price] $63,401 | 24h -0.02% | 7d -1.85% | Market share: 58.65% | Showing extremely tight volume, sideways stalemate 📌 【$ETH Price】$1,884 | 24h +0.31% | 7d -1.17% | Market share: 10.68% | Relatively resilient but lacking upward momentum 📌 【24h Total Trading Volume】$71.51 billion | 24h -52.49% | Trading volume halved, indicating that both bulls and bears are entering a wait-and-see 📌 phase. [Fear and Greed Index] 29 | Falling into the "fear" zone | Sentiment at its freezing point confirms the fragility of market confidence ══════════════ 🏢 Institutional treasury disillusionment: Value revaluation after "manual demand" withdraws The biggest recent fundamental shift in the market is the demystification of the institutional "vault model." According to TechFlow, although Metaplanet's CEO urgently denied that the $320 million transfer was a token sale, treasury giants like Strategy and MARA have indeed been reducing their holdings this year; Meanwhile, Crypto.com and Trump's $6.42 billion financial vault plan has collapsed. These two news stories reveal#特朗普因TruthSocial付费数据流遭起诉
In fact, for ordinary investors, there is a natural difference in the speed at which institutions access financial market news compared to most retail investors
Even when you first see the news, institutions complete many trades 🤔 within 1 second of what you see
Financial media typically capture online data, tag it, and judge its importance in a very short time, then provide it to trading institutions, completing trading instructions in milliseconds
Trump has compressed this path, allowing direct access to information via Trump's social media several milliseconds faster than the traditional method
Fast timing is an advantage for institutional operations, allowing them to buy cheaper chips or take profits. As long as an institution buys its own stock, it "has no choice" to buy, 🤔 or the profits will drop
Similar to preparing to buy spot mainstream coins like $BTC $ETH, as two institutions sharing the same name, Trump posted a "bearish post," where one institution gains access to information more 🤔 quickly and can respond and operate more quickly
Regarding the controversy surrounding the lawsuit against Trump, a local U.S. lawyer analyzed that Trump's public posts are public information, not private information. The result is that "everyone knows" it, but the Trump API allows faster access to information in milliseconds. If anything, Trump may have been bug-based🤔
@OKX Planet @Yanyan Eleven_OKX @Cola Cola_OKX ETH is once again stuck at the 1900 threshold.
I glanced at the market this morning: ETH is now at 1885, stuck right in the middle of the old range. A few days ago, it rebounded from the panic low of 1853 and surged aggressively to 1925, only to be struck back by a long upper shadow, indicating that the resistance between 1916 and 1925 is still there—it's not something you can just go up at will.
Today, August 14, large options expire, and ETH's biggest pain point is at 1900, with bullish clusters at 1950/2000. By now, you can roughly understand: the price lingering around 1897-1900 isn't a coincidence; it could be that large funds are "fixing" the market before expiration. At times like this, I'm not very keen on trading. I've lost out chasing highs, but the experience of chasing below 1925 and getting buried on the same day is still warm.
For support below, first look at 1870. It has been tested several times in recent days but hasn't broken through, so it's considered a soft cushion. If something unexpected really happens, then look at the panic low at 1853. Hard support isn't an impenetrable wall; if it breaks, you need to reassess. There's still a bottom below, don't be stubborn.
ETFs have been a bit cold lately. BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows in the past two days, and ETH inflows were weaker than BTC, so institutions weren't in a hurry to act. No incremental funds entered; in the short term, more trading was within a range, with rebounds not rebounding at the wrong time.
Trading advice: At 1885, it's uncomfortable to chase long or short positions. Keep your position light and wait for it to break out of 1853-1925. Breakout requires increased volume, and a drop should also increase volume. If volume fluctuates, just watch for shrinking volume.
Are you currently short or waiting for directions, or have you already placed a left-side position at 1870/1853?
#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen $ETH A brief cross-asset divergence: gold fell about 1% from its two-month high to around 4,366, while silver's bull crowding surged to an all-time high of 94% in the past two days. Safe-haven metals are resting at high levels, while $BTC remain stuck in the 63,000 range, unable to borrow a safe-haven premium. The most counterintuitive thing in the past six months is that the narrative of "crypto digital gold" collectively fails during real risk-averse moments—gold doesn't follow when it rises, but risk assets follow when it falls. Stop using gold's new high as a reason to buy coins; the pricing behind the two is fundamentally different. Look at your position.🔥 $SNDK /USDT FORMING BOTTOM RECOVERY BASE BULLISH SWING CONTINUATION LOADING?
📊 TRADE SETUP: $SNDK /USDT
Direction: LONG / BUY
Leverage: Cross 3x - 5x
📍 Entry Zone & Targets
📥 Entry Range: $1,380.00 – $1,415.00
🎯 Target 1: $1,480.00
🎯 Target 2: $1,550.00
🎯 Target 3: $1,650.00
🚀 Target 4: $1,800.00+
🛑 Stop-Loss: $1,315.00
$SNDK $OKB Currently trading sideways near $103, which basically matches the previous assessment. After surging to $105 yesterday, it pulled back but did not significantly break below 100, indicating resistance near 105 and support near 100.
Currently, the focus is on several locations:
$105: The first short-term resistance. If volume rises and it breaks through, the next target is $110.
$110-115: A new resistance zone. If 110 holds, the market may further enter a price discovery phase.
$100: The most critical support right now. Previous resistance has gradually turned into support. As long as this holds, the overall upward structure remains intact.
My own approach is not to chase highs; if I'm optimistic, stick to regular betting without disrupting my rhythm.
105 is for breakthroughs, 100 for defense, and 110 for the next goal.
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened Looking at the market this morning 14/8
BTC is currently around $63.45K, with an intraday margin of around $62.82K–$63.92K. After the US CPI in July was at 3.4% YoY and the July PPI did not increase, the pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates as soon as September has decreased significantly. This is a fairly favorable macro background for risk assets, but BTC's reaction is still quite weak. 
The point I paid the most attention to was altcoins. Your photo shows $LAT +4.09%, $DOS +2.74%, $PRCL +1.53%, $GRVT +1.51%, $CATI +1.34%, $MET +1.30%, $2Z +1.28%, $IRYS +1.15%, $BOME +1.09%... This means that BTC is almost stationary, but a mid/small-cap group has started to go green. This is a rotation signal, speculative money is trying to find profits in higher beta coins.
However, I haven't called this Altseason. The total crypto capitalization is currently about $2.26T, BTC dominance is still around 56.3%. The Altcoin Season indices have not yet reached the 75/100 threshold that is usually used to confirm Altseason; depending on the measurement method, the indices are giving signals in the transition zone, not the altcoin rising in unison. 
Today's scenario I followed:
* BTC holds $62.8–63K: pretty good for alt. Bullish coins like $LAT $DOS $GRVT $PRCL $MET can continue to outperform BTC.
* BTC surpasses $63.9K and regains the $64.4–64.8K zone: the market is likely to enter a stronger risk-on rhythm; at that time, memes, AI, DeFi, and newly listed coins tend to run fast.
* BTC breaks $62.8K: be careful. The current green small-cap can reverse very quickly because this is more like a short-term speculative cash flow than a sustainable Altseason cash flow.
Another positive signal is that market sentiment is at a Neutral level of about 44/100, no longer extreme. This is quite consistent with the current state: no FOMO yet, but money is starting to find the bottom and hunt for strong coins. 
I will pay the most attention $GRVT, $DOS, $PRCL and $MET; and $BOME belong to the meme group, so the profits can be fast, but the sweep risk is also high.
Bottom line: 🟢 Macro is supporting → 🟡 BTC has not broken out → 🟢 Alt has started to rotate → 🔴 has not confirmed Altseason.
If BTC holds $63K in the next few hours, today could be a better day to play alt than play BTC.
Alert me when BTC breaks $64K or breaks $62.8KHere's another narrative about domestic storage: some institutions say Changxin Technology's market value has surpassed Tencent, taking the top spot among Chinese listed companies by market value. No matter how you calculate this ranking, the signal is clear—the storage price hike cycle + domestic substitution are merging, and capital is willing to offer domestic storage valuations that were previously unimaginable. Global storage has long been a three-nation battle among Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, but now there are real domestic players at the table. This structural change is more memorable than just watching a candlestick on a single day. Let's see.Bitcoin performed weakly last night, while US stocks generally rose, but Bitcoin directly plunged downward. Yesterday, the 64K short position level was never reached, only falling to 63.9K.
So don't chase perfection too much in trading; just vaguely correct within a certain range.
It's like building a position at the bottom—you can't catch the lowest point, so you need to build positions in batches at the bottom area.
If you think a drop is still very likely, I still suggest you take a good look—why not just sell your positions directly? Can you hold on after a big rebound? Will you just FOMO and chase the highs? 🤣 Anyway, I placed a moving stop loss on my daytime order yesterday and still took profit.
Nothing is absolute; acknowledge your own limitations and do what is vaguely right! $BTC Someone else uses Middle East escalation to tell me, 'There's war, $BTC should be seen as a safe-haven asset to rise.' I advise you to throw away this narrative for now. This round of US sanctions on Iran is 'unprecedented,' sealing off the Strait of Hormuz, and the market is pricing it as 'oil prices are rising, inflation is coming back, and rate hikes shouldn't be relaxed'—the result is gold hitting new highs and cryptocurrencies getting hammered along with risk assets. If you really want to see if the currency will rise, don't focus on battle reports—look at the 2-year US Treasury yield. Those who believe in 'war-friendly currencies' have probably been educated several times in the past six months.Latest news from SanDisk $SNDK Investor Day SanDisk surges Just went through the SanDisk Investor Day materials. The most important thing in this meeting is that SanDisk starts to try to answer the question the market has been afraid to answer — with profits this high now, is this really the peak of the cycle? First, look at the most striking set of numbers. SanDisk's long-term model for FY2028–FY2030 is: Revenue growth maintained at mid-to-high double digits Non-GAAP gross margin maintained atFollowing the AI hardware line, here are two easily overlooked prosperity coordinates in the crypto world: TrendForce data shows that global OLED monitor shipments in Q2 2026 will surge 98% year-on-year and 26% quarter-on-quarter; SMIC has given guidance for Q3 revenue growth of 2%~4% quarter-on-quarter, with gross margins maintained at 26%~28%. One focuses on demand, the other on the foundry side, both confirming that this semiconductor rally is not a single-point rally. The rotation of memory, panel, and foundry shows that the industry's prosperity is substantial—such structural data is more worth noting than overnight price fluctuations.The weight of storage is clear from SanDisk's long-term outlook: before 2030, the gross margin target reaches 80%, and after production starts, 100% of the remaining cash returns to shareholders. The confidence behind this round of memory price hikes comes from server DDR5 rising 15%~23% in a single month is not an isolated case. This kind of fundamental is a slow variable; once established, it is a quarterly narrative that cannot be summed up overnight. The three storage giants take turns performing, protect their bullets, and don't chase highs or sell lows in overnight sentiment.$BTC Friday morning trading strategy analysis:
The candlestick has pulled back to 63,000 and 1,870, effectively supporting it. At the same time, technical indicators have deviated from the moving average, the market is oscillating and pulling back to recover, and the 4-hour moving average has deviated from its trajectory. I expect a rebound right now!
I immediately pushed back early this morning and was bullish on DaBing. DaBing is bullish at 63,000, target 64,400, 2Bing at 1870 with a bullish target at 1,900Let's first talk about hot topics today, then discuss the market situation. First, let's look at the overall direction. After the sharp correction in the financial market in July, this month we can see US stocks recovering losses, with gold climbing back to the 4400 high. However, the crypto world seems lukewarm, leaving many people confused. From the perspective of capital flows, ETF funds are also frequently building positions, a typical institutional guidance pattern. Based on past trends, the crypto sector is bound to be rebounding. In the past week, the number of new BTC wallets on the network reached 2.27 million, the highest level in nearly a year; The number of active wallets reached 751,000, setting a new 10-month record. However, what many don't know behind the scenes is that this wave of new wallets is not due to a large influx of newcomers into the crypto space, but rather due to security concerns triggered by the Coldcard wallet incident. Many users have transferred funds, created new wallets, and adjusted custody plans. Last week, the crypto world saw a total of 850 million yuan in new ETF inflows. Although this seems like a lot, compared to outflows from May to July, there is still a significant gap. Recent capital inflows have mainly been driven by changes in custody demand and weak employment data and improved interest rate cut expectations. The current buying volume cannot fully offset the ongoing selling pressure in the market. Furthermore, miners are also continuously selling off. Due to the ongoing decline in Bitcoin, many mining companies cannot withstand the high operational pressure and can only keep selling cash to buy time. Meanwhile, some mining companies are transforming into AI data centers, upgrading equipment only by selling Bitcoin to repay debts. From historical market trends, after each Bitcoin peak, it takes 12-13 months before it pulls back and bottoms out. Based on this experience, the limit bottom of this round of declines should appear in the fourth quarter of 2026. From my observations, whether it's valuation, market sentiment, liquidity, on-chain profitability, and other data, the market is still some distance from the extreme bottom. The market will definitely enter a market where no one dares to go long—this is the true bottom.Traditional interest rate assets spillover on-chain is expanding from US Treasuries to Korean won-denominated bonds, re-anchoring RWA valuations such as $PLUME. Shinhan Asset Management's on-chain PoC for trillion-yuan Korean won ultra-short-term bonds reflects the Fed's pursuit of on-chain migration of non-US assets under high Federal Reserve interest rates. If the US dollar index pulls back and US stock market volatility intensifies, on-chain non-US interest rate spread yield certificates will accelerate the absorption of cross-market safe-haven funds. Key indicators are the actual on-chain trading volume of this PoC and cross-border compliance policies; if liquidity falls short of expectations, the inference fails.
#海力士推进NAND扩产, #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC storage supply expectations rise, corporate finances show divergence, #芯片股领涨 Korean stocks rebound over 22% in ten daysTranslate this round of Middle East escalation into trading language: the U.S. Treasury Secretary announces "unprecedented" sanctions on Iran, plus the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off port access and exit. The market's first reaction is not to buy safe-haven assets, but to reprice the chain of "oil prices—inflation—rate hike expectations." This is also why gold prices can hit new highs, while $BTC have fallen along with risk assets—wars are now priced as "reinflation" rather than "safe havens." It's more useful to see where the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is headed than just reading news headlines. The failure of crypto as a safe-haven agent has persisted for the past six months.#CPI and PPI Cooling Down Simultaneously, Interest Rate Hike Divergence Widens
Current inflation is only slowing down; core CPI at 2.5% remains above the 2% target. Hawkish Federal Reserve officials have not abandoned the rate hike stance. The market is currently overbetting on a pause in rate hikes in September. If the central bank's annual meeting speech turns hawkish, rate hike expectations will quickly rebound, directly hitting three types of assets.
On-chain BTC miners and whales continue transferring to exchanges to sell, and this selling pressure has not disappeared. Previously, BTC spot ETFs experienced a single-day net outflow of funds, with insufficient buying momentum. Heavy selling pressure above 64,000 makes it difficult to break previous highs, likely leading to a pullback after positive news is fully priced in.
Gold is currently at a high level, but long-term supply pressure from U.S. Treasuries remains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still has potential to rise to 4.8%, which will continue to suppress gold's gains, likely causing short-term volatility and weakness.
In terms of operations, avoid opening long positions. Light short positions can be tried if BTC rebounds above 63,800. For gold, short positions can be set above 4,370 with strict position control to avoid sudden volatility caused by Federal Reserve officials' speeches.
$BTC $ETH $XAU I just saw someone say, 'CORE's price has dropped this much now, and if you don't buy now, there's no chance.'
I'm actually quite conflicted with this explanation.
Because "dropping a lot" and "worth buying" are completely different things, and I really didn't understand this before.
Previously, when I saw a coin drop from a few yuan to a few cents, my first reaction was that it was cheap, thinking that as long as I bought a little, I could make a lot of money.
Later, I learned that the market never gives back the price just because you think it's cheap.
So now, although I'm still slowly accumulating CORE, I won't feel compelled to buy just because it drops a lot.
I'm more curious to see if there's something that can get the market to revalue it later.
If so, then there might indeed be a chance now.
If not, then no matter how cheap, it's still cheap $CORE As SanDisk's August 13 Investor Day approaches, earnings reports remain divided, but SNDK is the first to strengthen. Current price is 1559.17, up 13.6% in 24 hours, both 1-hour and 4-hour uptrend, only 0.70% from the high, but 30% and 54% below the low, showing strong short-term momentum. Order book buy orders 30 vs sell orders 26, bulls have the advantage; Funding rate -0.0342%, bears pay, contrarian indicator. Short-term resistance at 1570, opening room for a breakout; Support at 1520, holding on pullbacks without breaking is worth longing. Recommendation: Go long near 1520, stop loss at 1490, first target 1600, next target 1650. Risk: There is significant divergence before the earnings are released; if volume drops below 1490, the bullish logic will fail; Negative rates also warrant caution against insertion. — This is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. ——
#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近, divergences in the earnings report remain to be resolved
$SNDK SanDisk SNDK's Future Trend | AI Storage Supercycle, Key Points in the Game
✅ Core fundamental logic
SanDisk is the core target of this round of NAND flash AI storage cycles, driven by demand for enterprise-level SSDs and AI model data storage, and has already signed multi-year long-term supply agreements. The $93.9 billion guaranteed revenue is locked in most of the next four years' capacity, partially smoothing the cyclical risks of the traditional storage industry.
However, the previous huge gains have led to clear market divisions: bulls focus on continuous expansion of AI computing power and rising NAND spot prices; Bears worry about performance expectations being overdrawn and subsequent capital expenditures leading to supply-demand reversals, which could trigger a "sell fact" rally.
📊 Market scenario simulation
1️⃣ Optimistic scenario (bullish)
Falling US Treasury yields, higher expectations for AI capital expenditure, and strong NAND spot quotes are driving capital inflow back to the storage sector. After stabilizing a key resistance level, a rebound and recovery will begin, aiming to challenge previous highs.
2️⃣ Neutral oscillation scenario
With repeated macro data and capital rotation within the sector, SanDisk is maintaining a tug-of-war within a range. Pulse upswings tend to pull back, making it suitable for selling high and buying low within the range, not chasing rapid surges.
3️⃣ Pessimistic scenario (short)
Inflation data rebounded, rate cut expectations delayed, and U.S. Treasury yields rose; Or it was that customer long-term contract growth was lower than expected, and NAND supply was released. High-valuation storage stocks are under pressure and prone to deep corrections, with very sharp volatility.