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Last night, I established a long position at $AAVE 86.2, and the price did respond today. I personally haven't changed my judgment just because it rose a bit; on the contrary, I think it's now more worth continuing to observe. Because during this period, AAVE has shown a fairly obvious divergence: the protocol side is getting stronger, but the price has remained weak. $AAVE V4 deposits have recently surpassed $400 million, and Stani himself mentioned a net increase of about $100 million per month. ether.fi has also connected Cash's credit backend to Aave V4 on Optimism, further expanding collateral assets to PAXG, SPYx, WBTC, ETH, ETHFI, and others. I think these developments are much more meaningful than simply shouting “V4 is bullish.” Looking at the data for July, TVL has turned positive month-over-month, and active loans are also recovering. After the previous one-time income from liquidations and SVR faded, protocol revenue has returned to the more stable source of interest income. However, fundamentals have already started moving forward, while the coin price is still grinding around 85-87. This is also one of the reasons I dared to consider trying a long near 86 yesterday. Of course, I won't ignore the candlestick patterns just because I am optimistic about AAVE's fundamentals. In the short term, around 85 remains a position I pay close attention to. If the price breaks below 85 with volume and fails to recover, that means this judgment was wrong, and the next level to watch might be around 83. Be prepared to take profits and stop losses; don't gamble on the market. Conversely, if 85-87 can hold steady, next I8/14 Crypto Intraday Summary: Three Major Data "Triple Cooldown" Benefits Realized, Risk Assets Hit New Highs, Crypto Experiences "Double Failure" Grinding Along Lower Box Boundary 🌍 Macro Theme | "Triple Cooldown" Suppresses Rate Hike Expectations, But Hawks Remain Unyielding US July "terrible data" retail sales unexpectedly declined (expected +0.1%), following CPI 3.4% / PPI 4.7% (March lows) triple cooldown → rate hike expectations collapse, CME September hold probability rises to about 65%,Self-Custody Daily | Entropy Is Not a 'Setup Item'
Whether the hardware wallet is offline is, of course, important; But the Coldcard incident reminds us that the risk boundary must go further and ask: how exactly are seeds generated?
According to Cointelegraph on August 14, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $1 billion that week, while the Coldcard incident brought self-custody risks back into market discussion; The report also cautioned that one should not conclude a causal relationship between the two.
According to TRM Labs' review, a firmware issue on the affected device caused the seed's randomness to drop from a design 128 bits to as low as 40 bits. Since July 30, about 1,816 BTC and over 5,200 addresses have been affected by the four-wave attack, with statistics still preliminary.
The key is not to pit "hardware" against "self-managed." The problem lies in the key generation chain: having the device in hand does not mean the previously generated seed is still reliable. Updating firmware can prevent future problematic paths but cannot retroactively fix already generated seeds; A more useful check is: what process is the key material generated? What randomness sources depend on? After discovering defects, is there an executable migration path?
Disclosure: Compiled by the CoWallet team. We are making MPC wallets with ECDSA thresholds, so we have a position on self-custody and key security issues.BTC浮盈6000美元，美股亏掉的全赚回来了，但我一点都不开心。 你有没有想过，当所有人都盯着比特币和以太坊暴跌的时候，真正的机会藏在那些没人讨论的角落里？ 今天打开账户的时候我自己都愣了一下。BTC多单浮盈6000多，ZEC直接干到12000，把昨天SanDisk亏的全补回来了。但说实话，这种对冲式的心跳加速，我宁愿不要。 先看一下市场到底在交易什么。BTC和ETH同时跳水，这不是孤立事件，而是整个风险偏好在收缩。资金没有消失，只是在搬家——从高波动的加密资产，搬向更确定性的方向。昨晚美股芯片股集体走弱，SanDisk、Micron、Hynix全线飘绿，这不是巧合，是同一个宏观情绪在两边市场同步发酵。 有意思的地方在这里。加密市场跌得凶，但做空的人赚得更凶。我身边一个做空ETH的兄弟，这一波直接浮盈13000美元，仓位加到610多，整个人都飘了。他说ETH回到2000是痴人说梦，我听着心里发毛，但盘面确实在帮他说话。 板块强弱的变化比价格本身更值得琢磨。存储芯片、内存板块明显在走弱，这是周期见顶的信号。而加密这边，比特币的抗跌性其实比ETH强——这说明什么？说明大资金还在守BTC，E$BTC Summary of last week's assignments
On Monday, it opened at 64,800 yuan, reaching a high of 65,300 yuan, but still couldn't break the 65,000 threshold. After that, it opened lower every day, and the rebound never reached the previous day's high. On Friday, it saw around 62,500 yuan intraday, with a weekly drop of about 3.5%–4% from the open.
The numbers weren't large, but the uncomfortable rhythm was that there was no decisive long bear, nor a proper rebound.
Three factors stacked together: Spot ETFs made about 850 million yuan last week, then turned negative 145 million on Monday, losing about 330 million over four days, bringing back a third of last week's inflows. Above 65,000 yuan is already thin, and once buying is withdrawn, it's easier to be suppressed.
CPI and PPI are both cool, so you should be relieved. But with the 30-year Treasury auction down to 5.216%, Hormuz is still stirring. The positive news only led to a false rebound, which surged to around 64,400 and then bounced back.
62,000–65,000 imprisoned positions are heavy. Strategy reduced holdings by about 1,690 more. No need to mythologize it as a sell-off; emotionally, even those who are best at saying "don't sell" are decreasing.
I only look at three positions and do not predict: 65,000–65,300, a gate that didn't hold this week; 63,200–63,500, closed here repeatedly from Tuesday to Thursday; 62,500, showed a stepping point during Friday's session. Holding onto a bearish drop pause, breaking below and unable to recover, easy to watch 62,000.
The worst contracts on a negative drop aren't liquidations in a single day, but just a little bit each day, grinding down both long and short.
Three things to watch next week: whether the ETF will be released yet, where the 62,500 daily moving average closes, and whether long-term yields will turn a slow bearish candle trend into a one-day cycle.
Finally, always believe that good things are about to 🫡🫡🫡 happen
#OKX星球话题来啦
#现货ETF资金分化, BTC selling pressure remains Just yesterday I said Bitcoin's data was a mess, and today it dropped. That's a bit jinxed, but I really do think about it
$BTC
Not that worried. Many people say that as soon as Bitcoin falls, we might see a deeper drop, but from the data I've seen, although the current data isn't optimistic, it's clear that buying sentiment outweighs selling sentiment around $60,000.
In other words, unless there is a very severe bearish sentiment, I think the probability of small-scale fluctuations is higher. Today's decline is not limited to cryptocurrencies; even US stocks have seen some pullbacks. Currently, the main market game is still on US inflation, specifically the war between the US and Iran, and the best reference point for this is oil prices.
Looking at oil prices, both WTI and Brant have shown a slight downward trend in the past two days. On one hand, global oil demand has dropped due to Hormuz; on the other, negotiations between Iran and Oman have shown progress. Currently, the worst option the market can accept is Iran's 7% fee. Although countries are reluctant, opening the system first and then communicating is not impossible.
So personally, I think as long as the war between the US and Iran ends, there will still be opportunities around the midterm elections. The attractiveness of Bitcoin around $60,000 isn't just my own empty talk—it's something investors have bought with money.美国单月赤字 4,320 亿美元，却还在打一场越来越贵的战争
美国 7 月单月财政赤字达到 4,320 亿美元，FY2026 前十个月累计赤字已经接近 1.8 万亿美元。与此同时，美国和伊朗战争仍然没有结束的预取，甚至美国有加大战争力度的可能。
五角大楼此前披露的直接战争成本已经达到 375 亿美元，而且这还只是已经发生的支出，后面补充导弹库存、恢复装备、维持舰队和海外基地都还需要继续花钱。
战争持续时间越长，美国需要投入的军费越多，财政赤字和发债压力也会继续增加，另一方面霍尔木兹长期无法正常通航，又会推高石油、汽油、航运和商品成本，让美国的通胀更难下降。
也就是说，美国一边因为战争需要借更多的钱，另一边战争本身又在阻止借钱的成本下降。
如果通胀继续维持高位，美联储就很难快速降息，美国财政部仍然需要在高利率环境下为庞大的赤字融资。国债越发越多，利息支出越高，下一年的财政压力又会更大。
而美国现在本身每年的利息支出就已经接近 1 万亿美元，战争继续拖下去，相当于在一个已经非常紧张的财政结构上继续增加新的长期支出。
$BTC Dabing and Ethereum really don't have much market value. Let's take a look at OKB today.
OKB is now at $108.6, up less than 3% in 24 hours. Looking at the daily chart, this price has climbed all the way up from $84 without much rest. As of yesterday, it has reached around 109, which is considered the highest level this year. But that doesn't mean it will fall. Nor does it mean it can keep rising. The key is—you're looking at a few minutes of candlesticks.
1. The three time windows see different things
Let's first look at the 4-hour chart. This is a fairly suitable cycle for judging direction. From 84 to 109, the trend is clear, the moving averages are diverging upward, and the MACD is still in the red bar area, indicating the bulls haven't finished their move. The only hidden risk is that the RSI is relatively high, near 70, which means it may be somewhat overheated in the short term. Overheating does not mean a top, but it does mean that if it surges further upward, it could easily trigger profit-takers to flee.
Let's look at the 1-hour chart. The price fluctuates between 106 and 109, forming a narrow box. This pattern usually appears after a sharp rise, with both sides trading chips. If it can rise above 109 with increased volume, the box will become a relay platform, with room ahead. If it breaks below 106, that's a short-term top.
Finally, let's look at the 15-minute chart. This cycle is only suitable for short-term traders. Currently, the price is moving along the upper band of the Bollinger Band, indicating strong short-term trading but also easy to pull back to the middle band. The middle band is around 107.5, which is an important short-term support.
To summarize the state of the three cycles:
Long-term: The bullish structure remains intact
Medium-term: High-level consolidation, waiting for direction
Short-term: Relatively strong, but a pullback could occur at any time
2. This rally is not driven by sentiment
Many people's first reaction when seeing OKB rise is that "platform coins are pumping up again." But this round is different.
The core reasons are twofold.
First, the supply was locked. Last August, OKX burned over 60 million OKB at once, with the total permanently fixed at 21 million. Moreover, the smart contract removed permissions for reissuance and manual burning, meaning that from a code perspective, issuing more tokens is impossible. This is unique among all platform tokens.
Second, OKB has a practical use. Previously, the biggest problem with platform tokens was that they could only be used to offset transaction fees, with their value supported entirely by exchange dividends. But now, OKB is the only gas token on X Layer. What is X Layer? It's a Layer 2 network built by OKX, running DeFi, RWA, AI Agents, and other businesses. Anyone using these services has to consume OKB. And to deploy trading markets on it, OKB must be staked as collateral.
Simply put, OKB has transformed from a "dividend certificate" into an "on-chain asset." This is the fundamental difference.
There's another background. ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, invested in OKX, secured a board seat, and plans to launch tokenized NYSE stock and crypto futures in the second half of this year. If this happens, OKB will be brought into the traditional financial circle. Although it's still just expectations, the market is already pricing in.
3. How to do this position
The biggest risk is that prices are outpacing fundamentals. X Layer's data is indeed improving, TVL is rising, stablecoin scale is expanding, but it's not yet exploding. If the market finds that "the story is over but the data can't keep up," there will be a pullback.
Another risk comes from regulation. OKX is going public in the US, and during this process, regulators may require OKB to separate itself from the platform. Once OKB loses its "equity" attributes, its valuation logic will have to be rewritten.
The third risk is a linked decline. OKB's volatility is roughly 1.1 to 1.3 times that of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin pulls back, OKB will fall even further.
If you haven't bought in yet, don't chase the high. Wait for one of two signals: if the price pulls back between 106 and 107, with increased volume stabilizing, you can take a light position and try going long, with a stop loss below 104. If the price breaks through 110 with increased volume, and after confirming the breakout is effective, you can follow a trade, targeting around 120, with a stop loss set at 106.
4. Several Prices to Watch
Resistance levels: 109 (previous high), 110 (integer threshold), 120 (psychological level)
Support levels: 107.5 (1-hour mid-band), 106 (lower edge of the box), 101 (starting point)
If it falls below 106, the short-term trend weakens, and the next line of defense is near 101. If it can't even hold 101, then it will return to the 96 to 100 range.
Conversely, if it holds above 109 and breaks through 110 with increased volume, it means the rally isn't over yet—the next target is 120.
5. Finally, a few honest words
OKB's fundamentals are indeed the best in recent years. Supply lock-in, on-chain consumption, and institutional endorsement all happen simultaneously, which is rare among platform coins. But no matter how good things are, they can't withstand the rapid price increase. The current 108 has already fulfilled some expectations ahead of schedule. If you want to buy, it's best to wait for a decent pullback. If there is no correction and the price keeps rising, then let it rise; don't chase it just because you're afraid of missing out.The actual trading volume of RWA equity tokens has already exceeded $22 billion per month, and the market has begun to recognize this not as a mere trend but as a structural capital shift. The variable most likely to overturn this judgment is regulation. Currently, the growth of this market operates under the SEC's tacit approval rather than explicit authorization, and the moment regulatory frameworks tighten, the core axis of circulation could collapse. - Key facts: The total circulation of tokenized stocks is about $2.5 billion, the number of holders over 30 days has increased by more than 100% to 1.18 million, and the monthly transfer volume has surpassed $22 billion, accounting for more than 15% of the RWA market. - Structural changes: Ondo remains the leader with about $866 million, but bStocks and xStocks are rapidly expanding their market share, shifting from a single-platform dominance to multi-ecosystem competition. Securitize and Figure are attracting institutional funds with regulation-friendly strategies. - Core of capital behavior: Three Circle-related tokens (CRCL, CRCLB, CRCLx)Sandisk’s post-Investor Day rally looks less like a verdict on one quarter and more like a repricing of its long-run earnings model. Targets for mid-to-high double-digit FY2028-FY2030 revenue growth, roughly 80% adjusted gross margin and 75% operating margin imply substantial operating leverage, while returning 100% of excess cash after investment reinforces the equity case. Yet a ~13.7% one-day jump followed by shares holding above $1,600 raises the execution bar: AI storage demand may support the thesis, but delivery against unusually ambitious margins now matters more than the headline targets. Not advice, just analysis.
#SandiskInvestorDayRally#CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergences widen. CME data also confirmed that the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from 40% to 32%.
The market cracked.
In the crypto world, $BTC is still struggling around 63,000, now comparable to stablecoins. Before the news broke, it surged a bit, but immediately dropped. Ethereum $ETH stayed between 1,860 and 1,890, but after a brief surge, the data came out and then disappeared. In the past 24 hours, over 60,000 people were liquidated, and ETF funds haven't flowed back, making 1,900 ETH the short-term ceiling.
$SNDK SanDisk climbed to 1687, SK Hynix rose over 7%, with significant internal data disagreements within the Fed, and two political forces are clashing behind the scenes.
The crypto world is stuck in an awkward position. Inflation has dropped, the probability of rate hikes has decreased; supposedly, prices should rise, but funds don't move. Because what the market wants is "rate cuts," not "no rate hikes." Not raising rates only stops bleeding; rate cuts are the real blood transfusion. ETH hovered around 1,900 for nearly two weeks, then was smashed down—a classic waiting catalyst. Once rate cut expectations shift from "increase or not" to "when will they fall?", ETH's elasticity will be much stronger than BTC's, and falling staking yields will directly push up the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
SanDisk's $SNDK surges, ostensibly due to AI, but behind it is expectations of capacity transfer under the chip bill. The crypto world is still stuck in liquidity narratives, while US stocks are already trading politics. Once political construction is complete, liquidity will develop in a positive direction📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 15)
According to liquidation data, BTC shows a pattern of rapid short-term direction switching and medium- to long-term bullish pressure, with long selling dominating the medium- to long-term market:
· Short cycle (1H/4H): 1-hour long liquidation $12,800, short $667.97, bulls crushing short positions 19.2 times, with high intensity; 4-hour long and short liquidations at $161,600 vs $167,700, basically balanced direction (0.96x), with intense long-short battles, liquidation volume about 24 times higher than 1 hour. Short-term direction switches rapidly, 4-hour long-short close to balance.
· Medium cycle (12H): Long liquidations at $9.6882 million, short positions at $3.439 million, bulls crushing bears by 2.82 times, bulls selling aggressively at 12-hour levels, liquidation volume about 40 times higher than 4 hours.
· 24-hour cycle: Long positions liquidated $26.801 million, short positions $4.0047 million, bulls crushed short positions by 6.69 times, cumulative liquidations broke through $30.8057 million, with long positions accounting for nearly 87%. The momentum for selling long positions increased significantly compared to the 12-hour period, with bulls flowing like a river of blood, and the bullish selling momentum was unstoppable.
⚠️ Risk warning: After BTC equals long-short positions within 4 hours, 12H/24H selling momentum continues to strengthen, with sharp direction shifts; 12-hour + 24-hour liquidations account for 99% of the total daily volume, with extremely high concentration and significant short-term volatility; 24-hour cumulative liquidations exceed $30 million, indicating sharp market volatility. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; do not blindly bottom-fish, strictly control positions while waiting for clear direction.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 15
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the macro window is opening, and industry leaders are pricing storage demand in the AI era with unprecedented long-term goals.
💾 SanDisk Investor Day: Long-term Targets Become the Focus, Stock Price Soars Nearly 14%
On August 13, storage giant SanDisk announced its long-term financial model covering fiscal years 2028 to 2030 at its Investor Day, with targets far exceeding market expectations: maintaining mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth, non-GAAP gross margin of about 80%, operating margin of about 75%, and adjusted free cash flow margin of about 50%. The company has committed to returning 100% excess free cash flow to shareholders through buybacks. Additionally, eight core customers have signed long-term agreements covering about two-thirds of its Bitcoin shipments in fiscal year 2028; By 2030, the potential market size for enterprise data center flash is expected to expand to 1.2ZB.
Boosted by this, SanDisk's stock price surged nearly 14%, and Goldman Sachs reiterated its "Buy" rating, setting a target price of $2,200, implying about 44% upside potential.
📊 CPI and PPI cooling simultaneously: probability of rate hikes drops to 35%
U.S. July inflation data continuously signaled a cooling down. CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, core growth was 2.5%; PPI year-on-year dropped sharply from 5.5% in June to 4.7%, remaining flat month-on-month.
After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from about 55% a week earlier to 35%. Former Kansas City Fed President George said the July data "did not show accelerated inflation." But core CPI's year-on-year growth of 2.5% was still well above the 2% target—cooling is real, and being close to the target is real.
📈 S&P closed at another high: expectations for 8,000 points heated
On August 14, the S&P 500 closed at 7,798.99 points, up 0.65%, breaking above 7,800 for the first time. Inflation data moderately dampened rate hike expectations, while falling oil prices provided additional support. JPMorgan has raised its year-end target to 8,000 points; Forecast market Kalshi data shows traders believe the probability of the S&P breaking above 8,000 points this year has risen to about 66%.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: the Fed is losing its unilateral control over market direction, corporate earnings expectations and long-term industry goals are taking over pricing power.
The simultaneous cooling of CPI and PPI has pushed the probability of a rate hike in September down to 35%, but the market no longer sees "betting on rate hikes" as the core contradiction—the index is still hitting new highs because capital has found a new anchor: the long-term profit trajectory of industry leaders. SanDisk drew an unprecedented high with an 80% gross margin and a 50% free cash flow margin, while the S&P 500 repriced its growth expectations for the AI era above 7,800 points.
As the macro window opens, indices hit new highs, and industry leaders chart three-year growth curves—the market is pricing storage demand in the AI era in a record way. From "betting on policy" to "calculating growth," pricing power is now being handed over. #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term goals await verification
#CPI与PPI同步降温, the rate hike divide widened
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up On the same day, two 13F filings and two Wall Street giants—JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, which together manage over $8 trillion in assets—disclosed their respective crypto holdings to the SEC. A clear comparison chart was thus unfolded. Morgan Stanley: Breadth Priority, Comprehensive Expansion As one of the world's largest wealth management institutions, Morgan Stanley's crypto layout is more like drawing an "asset map": Bitcoin: IBIT increased holdings 23% to $549 million, FBTC increased 38% Ethereum: ETHA surged 202%, Grayscale Ethereum ETF increased by 26% Solana: First investment in Grayscale and Fidelity SOL products, totaling about $6.5 million Circle: Holdings surged 470% (1.46 million →8.32 million shares) Miners: increased holdings in Cipher, Core Scientific, Hut 8, Bitdeer; Reduced holdings in Coinbase and CleanSpark, sold out Bitfarms Features: Got a little bit of everything. From Bitcoin to Ethereum to Solana, from ETFs to individual stocks to mining companies, coverage is extremely broad. Solana enters the allocation list for the first time, with Ethereum's growth far surpassing Bitcoin's—but Bitcoin's $549 million volume remains the absolute core. JPMorgan: Focus on the core, precise increases JPMorgan's allocation is even more concentrated: Bitcoin: IBIT increased 25% to $356 million, call options increased, put options decreased. Ethereum: ETH$ETH The money is all being sucked into AI! 😅
Storage stocks are booming (SanDisk +7% in a single day), while crypto trading volume has tanked 70% — liquidity is drying up fast.
ETH stuck at 1881:
Whales bought 130K ETH net in the past week, but retail dumped 360K — completely offsetting the buying pressure. Price is squeezed between the 50-day MA (1851) and 20-day MA (1869), going nowhere.
Bottom line: Money is in AI, retail is running. Break above 2000? Wait for rate cuts or an AI cool-off#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证
闪迪投资者日释放激进长期经营蓝图，股价大幅上涨，带动整个存储板块走强。公司押注AI推理带来闪存需求爆发，同时公布高毛利长期目标，并承诺超额现金流全部回馈股东，还签下多家长期客户协议，试图弱化存储行业周期属性。
市场看好AI推理赛道扩容，存储不再只是训练配套，推理刚需打开新空间，机构开始重新给存储企业估值。消息也会给加密算力、存储相关币种带来短期情绪刺激。
但这份亮眼目标属于2028‑2030远期规划，并非当下业绩，存在不少变数。存储行业周期属性根深蒂固，同行价格竞争、下游AI资本开支收缩，都可能让目标难以兑现。部分利好已经提前反应，容易出现利好兑现冲高回落。
个人观点：投资者日更多是讲好中长期增长故事，不能直接等同于行情继续暴涨。映射到加密市场，仅作情绪参考，切勿盲目追高题材币。后续重点观察闪存报价、下游真实订单，故事终究需要业绩落地来验证。$SNDK The cracks in the load-bearing wall were thin as hair, but now they're starting to let in light. Strategy sold 1,690 Bitcoins this time for $108.6 million, averaging $64,262 per coin—this isn't a "sale"; during the renovation of an old building, the designer decided to remove the seventh pillar to exchange for elevator budget. The media is still watching "real money" flow into preferred stock buybacks and dollar reserves, but my measuring instrument is focused on the foundation section of this plot: when Saylor's Bitcoin tracker was launched, no one zoomed in on the detailed drawings. The blueprints clearly marked the original design principle—a rigid structure that would never be sold—was now labeled as "flexible repair" on the construction plaque.
Don't rush to mock the cracks on that side. Those who truly work in engineering know that the real value of a skyscraper depends on whether it has a second structural load-bearing system. Strive's move to increase its holdings by 6,236 Bitcoins in Q2 is essentially the same blueprint as BitMine's construction log, where Ethereum is being accumulated while buying back its own shares. The treasury manager is shifting from "totem-style pouring" to "segmented cast-in-place prestressing." Bitcoin and Ethereum are no longer concrete stones buried in the base, but have become emergency reservoirs. The higher the water level in the reservoir, the more financially flexible it is; But once the water is drained to fill preferred stock defects or to cover buyback cracks, the seismic response coefficient of the main structure changes.
I stood outside this supertall building called the "Treasury of Enterprises," holding a laser plummet hanging from the exterior wall, inspecting the cantilevered platforms extending from each floor. Last month, some people said the verticality of the entire building deviated from its design values—because Strategy increased its holdings for eight consecutive weeks, making everyone believe the building would never allow any materials to be shipped out. Now, 1,690 bricks have been packed and shipped, and some people are exclaiming the building is about to collapse. No, they misunderstand the underlying logic of building operations—even the sturdiest tower needs cost control, reserve funds, and optimize internal spatial structure. So-called "structural demand" is not about holding onto all the bricks without letting go, but about letting the bricks, mortar, and steel beams perform their structural forces in the most suitable places.
But the real hidden danger lies in the shadows. I looked through the construction drawings for that huge basement marking: the ground floor parking space was converted into a "dollar reserve area," and the upper part was newly installed with "preferred stock spring isolation bearings." Neither of these design changes was included in the load calculations for the original structure. For the foundation, each additional basement level digged means the original pile bearing capacity is reallocated. Bitcoin sells for $64,262, which is the lateral pressure on the temporary retaining wall—when future financing needs grow, every company's treasury will become an active relief valve. At that point, Bitcoin and Ethereum will no longer serve as load-bearing walls but will become adjustable dampers.
What structural engineers fear most is not loading, but changes in loading paths. The shift in corporate treasury means that all "HODL eternalism" architectural manifestos are beginning to yield to rigid cost indicators. New decorations are now popular in the lobby of Wall Street buildings: corridors for preferred share buybacks, cornices for dollar reserves, and waistlines for Ethereum holdings.
They were still painting the facade, continuing to sketch the perspective of "never transporting building materials abroad" for the market. But my total station had already read everything: these assets had just been moved from one load-bearing wall to another fire exit. When the valve was needed to be opened to extinguish the fire, gravity gravity would make the choice for them.
At that moment, the entire building will shake to its core: is this the long-term support of the foundation for the superstructure, or simply bricks removed from the shear wall to fill the garage opening? The moment the tower crane turns, the static schematic of the load-bearing structure no longer needs the designer's judgment #strategysellsbtcagain$OKB hit 108, here are some real thoughts Seeing this number in your holdings definitely makes you happy, but the rise to this point actually makes you more calm. Right now, the market isn’t betting on "platform coins," but on whether OKB can become an irreplaceable asset within the X Layer. 21 million tokens locked, the only Gas, and in the future, creating markets will still require staking OKB. The story is imaginative, but don’t treat the roadmap as already completed. Remind yourself of twoAnthropic refuses to discuss valuation in closed-door meetings—what is the real deal?
AI super unicorn Anthropic is preparing for what may be the largest IPO in history, aiming to list as early as September or October. But recent closed-door meetings with potential investors have taken on a somewhat strange tone.
Anthropic's recent preliminary investor communication meeting, hosted by the CFO, mainly focused on "virtual" topics such as the Claude model, Claude Code, enterprise market positioning, and management teams. The key issue was that valuation and specific financial data were not discussed.
At this time, the market is rumored that its IPO valuation could reach $2 trillion, catching up to or even surpassing SpaceX's record.
Why not talk about money? There are two possibilities. First, they are confident and let their products speak for themselves. The company's second-quarter revenue is expected to exceed $11.5 billion, a 14-fold year-on-year increase, and it has achieved profitability for the first time.
Annualized revenue surpassed $47 billion in May, showing astonishing growth. Second, proactive cooling expectations. A $2 trillion valuation is an investor estimate, not an official company target.
Additionally, recent U.S. export controls forced Anthropic to withdraw advanced models, causing unease among customers. Management may want to stabilize investor confidence through meetings rather than set expectations too high.
Some might say, "If you don't talk about valuation, are you feeling uncertain?" But from another perspective, it's more like imitating the roadshow strategy of a top tech company—when fundamentals grow hard enough (doubling quarterly and gross margin jumping above 70%), the company's mission and product roadmap are more convincing than current numbers. The real valuation game will be left to the official roadshow stage.
Anthropic's IPO is very likely to be one of the most blockbuster tech IPOs this year, currently in a "momentum period."
Real trading opportunities may not be chasing the price on the first day of listing (refer to the lesson of SpaceX's rise before breaking issue price), but rather before and after listing, observing the market's overall valuation of the AI sector, which directly mirrors the trading of similar AI concept stocks like Palantir and Nebius.
$ANTHROPIC $SPCX $NBIS $SNDK is not suitable for heavy positions or frequent small positions and additions; Their volatility is huge, heavy positions are prone to extreme market blowouts, and small positions can accelerate losses. A safer approach is to start with light positions, extend the interval between increases, and reserve sufficient cash.
Why not hold a heavy position?
- Huge volatility: From a low of $27.89 in April 2025 to a high of $2,354.39 in June 2026, an increase of over 8,400%; On August 13, 2026, it rose 14.66% in a single day, with intraday gains of 17% at one point.
- Single-day shock: Investor Days rose as much as 17% intraday, but fell nearly 8% after earnings guidance fell short of expectations.
- Leverage risk: Under high leverage, a single sharp fluctuation can trigger forced liquidation, and by the time the price reverts, the position has already disappeared.
- Hard to recover losses: losing 50% requires earning 100% to recover the loss; losing 90% requires earning 900% to recover the loss; heavy positioning mistakes can wipe out accumulated profits.
- Psychological pressure leading to distorted trading: Heavy positions amplify fear and greed, leading to chasing gains and selling lows or not cutting losses, creating a vicious cycle.
- Black Swan Risk: Extreme events may trigger consecutive limit-downs or liquidity exhaustion, making it difficult to exit heavy positions.
Why is "20/30 points added once" not advisable?
- The cost line for adding positions has not been widened: Under high volatility, a 20–30 point pullback is relatively small and not enough to significantly dilute costs.
- Rapid position increase: Adding positions at small intervals can quickly approach full position, depriving you of funds needed to deal with deeper price adjustments.
- Deeper and deeper: If the trend turns bearish, short-term increases in positions will rapidly expand losses and accelerate liquidation.
A more reliable approach to operations
- Start with a light position: Control your initial position at 10%–20% of your total capital, using small risk exposure to "trial and error."
- Increase the Increase Interval: Extend the buying interval from 20–30 points to 50–100 points, and add more when key support levels or clear positive fundamental signals appear.
- Pyramid Adding: The lower the adjustment, the smaller the amount added per move. Strictly control position pressure to avoid overly full positions.
- Reserve sufficient cash: Keep at least 50% cash to effectively dilute costs during deep pullbacks rather than passively absorbing them.
Company Fundamentals: Sources of Volatility
- Performance Explosion: Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue grew 372% year-on-year, gross margin surpassed 84%, and data center business grew nearly 13 times year-on-year.
- Strategic transformation: Transitioning from consumer-grade storage to core AI infrastructure supplier, signing nearly $100 billion long-term NAND supply agreements with eight customers.
- Shareholder Returns: Plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders after meeting operating investments, with an additional $14 billion share buyback.
- Aggressive long-term targets: For fiscal years 2028–2030, the target is non-GAAP gross margin of about 80% and adjusted free cash flow margin of about 50%.
- Institutional Divergence: Some well-known hedge funds chose to liquidate in the second quarter of 2026, reflecting concerns about high valuations.
Execution list
- First position: Keep it at 10%–20%.
- Increase interval: add after a pullback of 50–100 points, and when a key support or positive fundamental signal appears.
- Adding positions: Uses a pyramid structure, with the lower you go, the smaller the amount per addition.
- Cash reserves: Keep at least 50% cash to avoid being fully invested.
- Leverage: No or very low leverage to avoid forced liquidation risk $SNDK August is nearly half over, and BTC has been range-bound between 62,000 and 65,000 for two full weeks. One detail worth noting: volume is steadily shrinking. This isn't the first time. Over the past three months, each time volume contracted to similar levels, BTC chose a direction within 10 to 20 days, with an average move of about 15%. Compression always resolves – it's a basic structural rule. No one knows which way it will break. Macro data is improving. July PPI was flat, core PPI cooled, an#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term goals yet to be verified. SanDisk surged 13.7% in a single day—what exactly is Wall Street trading? It's not storage price hikes, nor AI demand—these have long been secrets. What truly stirred the market was management's first projection of 2030: gross margin 80%, operating margin 75%, and 100% excess cash returned to shareholders. All three numbers together look so beautiful they don't look like a cyclical stock. But the problem lies here: the more perfect the story, the more vigilant it becomes. Is the market pricing the future, or is it being held hostage?
Holding above $1,600 for two trading days on the surface seems like AI narratives and shareholder returns igniting sentiment, but deeper it is capital starting to revaluation SanDisk from a "cyclical stock" to a "core AI infrastructure asset." But the long-term goal extends from FY2028 to FY2030, with mid-to-high double-digit growth and nearly 75% operating profit margin, meaning the market assumes NAND's high prosperity can last more than five years. Theoretical EPS can be projected to $300, but NAND price fluctuations, slowing AI capital expenditure, and execution risks — any of these factors can cause this model to be discounted.
After a big rise, the most attractive thing is often not the answer, but the problem itself. Long-term goals to be verified—real opportunities are never hidden in the loudest applause.#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证
一场投资者日，直接把闪迪股价推上高潮，但热闹过后，市场分歧也彻底摆上台面😂
会上甩出两大重磅筹码：8家核心客户锁定939亿美元待履约长协，加码HBF高带宽闪存布局AI赛道，还承诺超额现金全部回馈股东，同时给出2028‑2030年激进盈利目标。利好落地，股价应声大涨，存储板块也跟着被带飞。
可打开股吧雪球，观点直接对半撕裂。
看多的投资者觉得，千亿长协白纸黑字，还有分红兜底，存储周期股有望蜕变成成长标的，可以安心拿长线。
老玩家却保持警惕：存储行业向来周期凶猛，过往不少大厂投资者日画下宏伟蓝图，最后却难逃目标跳票。纸面合同很漂亮，但客户结构、交付节奏、外部管制风险，依旧存在不少未知数。
机构口中大谈“耐心资本”，看好AI存储打开想象空间；散户更看重实打实的回款与财报兑现，不轻易为故事买单。
千亿长协能不能对冲存储周期的反噬？HBF新技术能否顺利落地？这些都不是一场发布会就能盖棺定论。
短期行情已经把利好price in，后续能不能走得远，终究要看一份份财报、一批批交付数据来检验。
你觉得闪迪这次，是真的打破周期魔咒，还是又一轮美好的行业愿景？ Institutional holdings in listed treasury have been taken over by the founder's personal entity, and the leverage for collateral asset lending continues to rise amid book losses.
$SOL Spot is consolidating narrowly near $75, just above the average cost line of recent Treasury increases.
While institutional shareholders sold off their equity, Treasury's debt borrowed from Galaxy expanded to $120 million, leaving only $11 million in cash on hand.
The stark contrast between cash reserves and debt makes the circulation of staking fwdSOL buying heavily dependent on token prices staying above cost.
If the spot price breaks above the dense chip zone, the unrealized gains from 7.81 million treasury tokens will cover interest expenses, and the inflow of passive index funds will accelerate the secondary market discount.
If the price breaks below the $75 defense line and continues to weaken, collateral requirements will force the treasury to reduce buying orders, potentially triggering a chain of liquidation pressures.
If the treasury can complete external equity refinancing without increasing collateral, the current debt transmission chain will be directly severed.
Over the next 7 days, the debt collateral warning line set by Galaxy and the secondary turnover rate of Treasury stocks are the core variables for measuring risk exposure.
#标普收盘再创新高, expectations for 8,000 points heat up; #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC, corporate financial reserves diverge; #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after anotherInstitutional divestment and governance power concentrated in individual entities expose the liquidity pressure and shrinking risk appetite under the crypto treasury model in pledged lending and leverage.
Multicoin completely sold out its equity in Forward and transferred it to the founder's personal entity, as Galaxy's debt expanded from $105 million to $120 million. Institutions shifted chip risk from the primary market to the secondary market, causing listed entities to bear higher leverage discounts on their balance sheets.
The core order driving price transmission is: creditor liquidation line risk, marginal decline in treasury buying, and institutional secondary outflow rhythm. When Forward posted a net loss of $69 million in a quarter and only $11 million in cash on hand, the marginal momentum of borrowing fwdSOL at a 3.4% weighted rate to buy SOL was approaching the critical point.
The scenario triggered for Solana spot to break through the current chip-dense zone, allowing the treasury's 7.81 million SOL unrealized gains to cover debt interest. If the passive allocation of the Russell 2000 and 3000 indices exceeds institutional sell-offs, and non-SOL USD yield projects start contributing cash flow, secondary market discounts will rapidly narrow.
The downside scenario triggers the condition for SOL's price to remain below the $75 cost line, forcing listed entities with $120 million in debt to add collateral to Galaxy or reduce treasury bids. In this scenario, if founding entities cannot afford to take on the chips, secondary market selling pressure will directly transmit to spot market liquidity.
The signal to judge failure lies in whether Forward can complete equity refinancing without increasing leverage, or if institutional investors can fully acquire the concentrated equity in Lemmings controlled by Samani through over-the-counter trading. Any injection of non-spot collateralized debt will directly break the current downward transmission chain.
In the next 7 days, focus on the distribution of Galaxy debt liquidation warning lines and changes in the turnover rate in the Forward secondary market.
#马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99% #霍尔木兹通航谈判未果, US and Iran escalate pressure🚨 [$SNDK Can it keep rising? I, the long seller, am starting to get scared]
Guys, SanDisk$SNDK has really gone crazy these past couple of days.
On August 13, it surged about 14%,
Continued on August 14,
It is now approaching $1,630!
Even more outrageous:
🔥 This week's gain is nearly 35%.
🔥 Two-week increase of over 60%
🔥 The gains over the past year have already been astonishing
Now the question arises:
Can SNDK keep rising?
Let me leave the answer here:
👉 I don't think it will "rise forever."
But I don't think it can be simply defined now as "too much rise, about to crash."
The real contradiction is actually far more complex than the rise and fall.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💥 [Why is the market suddenly frantically repricing SNDK? 】
The core is Investor Day on August 13.
SanDisk tells its growth story straight to 2030:
📌 FY2028-FY2030 revenue is expected to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth
📌 Adjusted gross margin target of approximately 80%
📌 Adjusted free cash flow target of approximately 50%
📌 AI infrastructure continues to drive NAND demand
📌 Multi-year client agreements increase visibility into future demand
More importantly:
About two-thirds of the 2028 capacity has already been covered by multi-year agreements.
This means the market is starting to rethink:
Previously, SNDK = Cyclical Storage Stock.
Current SNDK = AI storage + long-term contracts + high profit margins + high cash flow.
That's why stock prices can suddenly be revalued.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🚨 [But the real danger has arrived]
The most common mistakes the market makes are:
Seeing a bright future for the company,
Just default:
The stock price will definitely continue to rise.
Wrong.
The company is getting better≠ and the stock is rising every day.
Because stock prices are trading into:
Expectations are different.
If the market had already priced in the huge growth of 2030 in advance at today's prices,
So even if the company continues to grow in the future,
As long as growth does not exceed market expectations,
Stock prices can also fall.
This is the biggest risk for SNDK right now.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔥 [So what exactly is SNDK's current status? 】
I gave it three labels:
(1) Fundamentals: 🟢 Strong
AI data centers, NAND demand, enterprise-grade SSDs, and high-bandwidth Flash are all providing new growth opportunities.
(2) Expectations: 🟢 Extremely strong
Mid-to-high double-digit growth by 2030 + about 80% gross margin—this target alone is enough to stimulate valuation.
(3) Stock price: 🔴 extremely excited
After a short period of continuous surges, profit-taking, leveraged funds, and FOMO funds all began to accumulate.
This means:
When prices rise, they can be very fierce; when pullbacks, they can also be very aggressive.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚠️ [What I'm most worried about isn't a crash]
Instead:
SNDK continues to rise, and people are beginning to believe it "will never fall."
The most dangerous stage in history,
It's often not a time when no one believes it.
Instead:
"Everyone felt they understood it."
If SNDK continues to break through,
Short stop-loss + bullish chasing rally,
It's easy for a short squeeze to form.
But once kinetic energy disappears,
The leveraged funds that chased earlier will in turn create a crushing blow.
This is the scariest aspect of high-beta assets.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📈 [Next, I'll only watch three signals]
🔥 (1) Can it continue to increase volume and reach new highs?
If trading volume continues to expand while the price rises,
This indicates that capital is still willing to accept higher valuations.
🔥 (2) Can it quickly retract after stepping back?
Truly strong stocks are not "no pullbacks."
Instead:
Someone picked up the callback.
🔥 (3) Whether fundamentals can be sustainably delivered
The story of 2030 is beautiful.
But in the end, it still depends:
Revenue, profit, cash flow,
Season by season, prove it to the market.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💣 [So I give one sentence to each of the bulls and bears]
Bulls:
What you are betting on now is the AI storage supercycle, tight supply, long-term contracts, and a complete restructuring of SNDK's profitability.
The logic is indeed very strong.
Bears:
What you're betting on is not SNDK, which has no value.
Instead:
Has the market already priced in the best scripts for the coming years?
This logic also holds.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔥 Finally, here's the most controversial question:
If SNDK truly achieves its 2030 growth target,
What do you think:
Is $2,000 crazy, or just a stopover?
But if the market has already finished trading the story of 2030 ahead of time,
So now, around $1,600,
Will it become the final madness?
👇 Take sides in the comments:
🟢 Long position: 2000+
🔴 Bearish: peaked at 1600
⚔️ What I most want to see isn't the likes,
It's about whether you dare to write down your target price.
Let's see who ultimately gets it right. #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term targets to be verified $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温, rate hike divergence widens, and expectations for #标普收盘再创新高8,000 points are heating up But after cross-checking stablecoin flows, the conclusion isn't that simple— Alternative.me · 8/15: • Fear Index: 34 (still in the Fear range) • Past 30 days: 23 days<30 • Sentiment is recovering, but far from returning to neutral DefiLlama stablecoin 7-day changes: • Global: +$200 million (barely moving) • Ethereum: -$591 million ↓ • Tron: +$745 million ↑ • Solana: -$172 million ↓ • Base: +$86 million ↑ On the surface: the market has not seen large-scale withdrawals Crypto (global stablecoin total is stable). But internally, there is a sharp relocation—ETH is flowing out, Tron is attracting funds, and Sol is also decreasing. Base/Arbitrum saw small inflows, but the scale was much smaller than the ETH→Tron migration. What does this indicate? 1/ The "Fear Repair" ≠ "Funds Returning to DeFi" index rose from 29→34, with only sentiment slightly warming up. Stablecoins have not flooded into the Ethereum DeFi or Sol ecosystems on a large scale. 2/ Money is concentrated toward the 'settlement layer', not toward the protocol layer. Tron 7 days +$745 million, ETH 7 days -$591 million—the direction is almost the opposite. This is linked to Tron as the global USDT bondThe Bitcoin options market is drawing clear battlefield boundaries for the next round of market movement. Glassnode's latest analysis shows that although the Bitcoin native options market remains generally sluggish, holdings are gradually concentrating near key strike prices, making the market structure clearer. Implied volatility: short-term weakness, long-term premium Term At-the-money implied volatility 1 cycle about 26% 6-month term about 39% Term structure steeps further — traders expect short-term price volatility less but still retain pricing for longer-term uncertainty. This indicates that the market believes "there will be no major rally in the short term, but a directional breakout may occur within six months." Skewness: Weakening Downside Protection Demand The narrowing skew of options means market demand for downside protection is waning. Compared to before, options positions are no longer as defensive—panic is fading, but not yet in a state of excessive complacency. Gamma distribution: $60,000 is the "vulnerable point," $70,000 is the "stabilization anchor." The distribution of Gamma exposures reveals the market's most authentic "vulnerable zones": negative Gamma concentrates in the low $60,000 range→ downward movements may be more likely to cause larger price movements (market makers are forced to follow the trend, amplifying the decline). Positive Gamma gradually concentrates around $70,000 → upward near $70,000. This may be due to the stabilizing effect of market maker hedging (market makers buy during the rise to slow the pace of the rise).[ETH | $1900 Fails Twice, What ETH Might Lack Now Is Not Capital, But a Breakout]
ETH has now fallen to around $1870-$1880. After attempting to break through $1900, it was again pulled down by selling pressure, with $1850 serving as important short-term support.
Interestingly, ETH spot ETFs have recently continued to see continuous net inflows, indicating institutional funds have not fully withdrawn, but the price has not steadily stabilized above $1900.
So from a contract perspective, I'm more focused on whether **$1900 can hold again**: only by holding and increasing volume can there be a chance to further open up the upside space; If $1850 still can't hold, be cautious of further widening of the long stop-loss level.
Do you think ETH is gathering strength to break through $1900 this time, or is the rally ending and preparing to continue pushing back?
#ETH #Ethereum #合约交易$ETH
From the current technical structure, ETH has completed a recovery after a round of pullbacks, showing a slightly stronger oscillating pattern over the 15-minute period. The MACD has strengthened again and the Bollinger Bands have closed, indicating the market is preparing a new direction. In the short term, 1882-1885 is a key resistance level that bulls must break. Once effective volume increases and stabilizes, there is a chance to continue testing 1890-1900; If it fails to break through, it is more likely to remain oscillating within the 1870-1885 range, waiting for new news or capital support. Currently, the market overall is still influenced by macro data and risk appetite, so trading is better for waiting for a breakout confirmation rather than chasing gains at resistance levels.SanDisk$SNDK made a big picture on Investor Day, and the market rose first.
The company said that from 2028 to 2030, revenue will grow steadily every year, gross margin will reach 80%, operating profit margin will reach 75%, and all the money earned except for reinvestment will be returned 100% to shareholders. The stock price rose 13.7% that day, surpassing $1,600.
What's going up? On one hand, the story of AI storage is still ongoing. SanDisk has launched a new product called HBF, targeting AI inference scenarios, with capacity 16 times that of HBM, effectively opening up a new track. On the other hand, eight major clients have signed long-term agreements, selling 50% of capacity in 2027 and two-thirds in 2028, with guaranteed revenue of $93.9 billion—much more certain than before.
The company has also committed to returning more than half of free cash flow to shareholders, with a repurchase quota of 15.5 billion.
But the problem is, these targets have already been priced in advance by the market. This year, SanDisk's highest price rose to $2354, but later, due to guidance for next quarter falling short of expectations, it fell to around 1200. Brokerages are calling for 3000 and 2200, but the forward PE is only 7 times—showing the market is still skeptical about whether it can be delivered.
$BTC Regarding storage, the trend of storage stocks is not directly tied to BTC, but it serves as a sentiment indicator for the AI hardware sector. SanDisk's ability to hold steady shows that AI demand hasn't stopped and serves as a bottom line for the broader market. But this round of rally is a "pie three years from now," not "money now."
#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term goals remain to be verified Either increase dividends or buy back shares; in any case, they should find a way to return real cash to shareholders.
Of course, Maotai's dividends have not been low over the years, and the core reason is easy to understand — Maotai Group holds about 60% of the listed company's shares.
The more dividends paid, the more cash the major shareholder receives.
Therefore, compared to buybacks, dividends obviously better meet the major shareholder's cash flow needs.
Thirdly, and what I think is the most noteworthy chart: the exit of the national team.
From the list of the top ten tradable shareholders this time, Central Huijin and China Securities Finance Corporation no longer appear.
As for whether they have completely liquidated their positions or the specific reduction path, further confirmation is needed with complete holding data.
But at least from the shareholder structure perspective, the signal is already very clear:
Maotai is undergoing a comprehensive change from channels, profits to shareholder structure.
The golden era of baijiu is over.
What really determines Maotai's future valuation now may no longer be "how much more it can rise," but whether, after the slowdown in growth, it can continue to provide shareholders with sufficiently stable cash returns. Short $SNDK for $1000!
Not sure if I can last until the end
I still firmly believe this is a rebound after an oversell
The reason is:
In a bull market, there won't be a drop of more than 50%
Whether it's SanDisk or Hynix $SKHYNIX
Both have experienced such a large correction
This indicates that the main funds have already left
The trend has reversed
This rebound was driven by multiple positive news released during Investor Day
#SandiskInvestorDayRally #CPIPPIEaseFedSplit #SP500Nears8000 Since August, Bitcoin miners have deposited over 50,000 BTC in a certain place.
The single-day peak exceeded 8,000 tokens, significantly higher than usual.
Miners are selling, and operating costs are there—at the end of March, listed miners lost nearly $19,000 per Bitcoin mined.
The cash cost line is around $80,000, the token price is over $62,000, and every miner you mine loses money. Some miners are managing liquidity to prepare for future operating expenses in advance.
Core Scientific signed an $8.7 billion AI hosting contract, while Hut 8 holds a $26.6 billion AI infrastructure contract.
50,000 BTC is just the known figure.
Only they know how much stock miners still have. Once this group starts selling continuously, the market's support will gradually be worn down.
When ETF inflows in, you can't see it, but once ETF inflows slow, these 50,000 coins become real selling pressure $BTC The JPY shorts are still holding the line; once the September rate hike hits, the whole world will have to tremble along
Short positions surged to a nine-year high not long ago
Every short position, in essence, is a potential forced buyer
The death spiral is already turning:
As the yen falls to around 160—its weakest level in 40 years—the Bank of Japan is likely to hike rates in September to defend it
Carry trades are forced to unwind
To buy back yen, you have to sell what you’re holding
The first thing sold will be U.S. Treasuries
Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries
The yield on 30-year Treasuries is already 5.26%, the highest since 2007
With forced selling, yields can surge even higher
The U.S. government’s interest on debt alone is already $1.25 trillion a year
If it goes higher than that, they truly can’t carry it
At that point, the Federal Reserve will have to choose between two options: support the bond market or protect against inflation
Most likely, it will support the bond market
Trump’s side will also pressure the Fed to do the same
The result is continued money printing
Middle-class real income gets wiped out
Floating-rate debt and small businesses are the first to fail
A consumption cliff
With lower tax revenue, the deficit gets bigger
The global economic crisis kicks off directly
Don’t forget: Japan is almost 100% reliant on imported oil, and it still has to pay for it in dollars
That’s a structural sell pressure on the yen—not something a couple of interventions can fix
Two weeks ago, the U.S. and Japan jointly intervened, and the yen popped up
But now it has already given back half
The market simply doesn’t believe
This round is different from beforeIran is still on fire; with China facing pressure from the tech race, oil prices are heading higher, and consumer confidence is already worse than at the peak of the Great Depression
The situation is getting worse every day—we don’t know when it will end
$BTC $ETH $OKB It's exploded, totally messed up, profits are declining, and the national team has even pulled out.
Last night, Kweichow Moutai's half-year report was released, and something feels off. The overall performance was significantly below expectations.
Revenue for the first half of the year was about ¥90.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of only 1.47%; net profit excluding non-recurring items was about ¥44.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.04%.
Looking at the second quarter alone, the pressure is even more obvious:
Revenue dropped about 9.2% year-on-year, net profit excluding non-recurring items fell about 6.88%, roughly 10% lower than previous institutional expectations.
This is no longer just a simple "slowdown in growth," but core profits have started to show negative growth.
But I think there are actually a few changes in Moutai's financial report that are truly worth paying attention to:
First, direct sales are getting stronger while distributors are weakening.
In the first half, Moutai's direct sales revenue was about ¥51.9 billion, accounting for more than half of total revenue. Previously relying on a large distributor system, it is now accelerating the shift to direct sales and the consumer end. When the industry was booming, the distributor system helped expand the market; but as the industry enters an adjustment period, these intermediaries have become costs and risks. So what Moutai is doing now is essentially reorganizing its sales system.
Second, the cash flow is impressively strong.
Net cash flow from operating activities was about ¥70.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 400%.
The cash on hand has also reached about ¥184.8 billion.
They can still earn over ¥80 billion a year, and have this much cash sitting idle.
My simple view:
Don't just let the money lie in the account. 一个特别魔幻的现象出现了——美股那边标普和纳指涨得风生水起，$BTC却跟个没事人似的往6.3万下面钻。说好的跷跷板呢？说好的正相关呢？全都不好使了。
这两天看着满屏的美股绿、币圈红，估计不少人心里直打鼓。但我跟你说，这事儿要只看表面，那可就亏大了。这哪是什么资金跷跷板，这是比特币正在经历一场底层的定价逻辑重构。
以前我们习惯了"美股涨币圈跟"的剧本，但现在这个剧本废了。你把美债收益率摊开看看，机构躺着就有5%的无风险收益，凭什么来加密市场冒险？在降息预期一直被往后推的背景下，大钱宁愿去拥抱有业绩支撑的科技股。比特币正在从"高弹性风险资产"向"独立定价的大宗商品"过渡，这个过渡期啊，注定是难熬的。
再看衍生品那边，更是暗流涌动。$BCH空头在加码，$HBAR资金费率负得离谱——这都是流动性萎缩的典型症状。没有增量资金进场，存量博弈就是纯零和游戏，谁先扛不住谁买单。30天波动率掉到36%以下了，金融市场的规律就是这样——越平静，后面的风暴越猛。多头空头都在等一个决定性的信号。
所以现在的策略就一句话：管住手，多看少动。ETF流出只是情绪宣泄，真正决定方向的，是接下来的美联储表态和Clarity法案的进展。方向没明朗之前，比的是谁拿得住、谁不瞎动。这才是最高级的操作。
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 On Friday, Cboe BZX exchange submitted an application to the SEC to launch the first U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs with 3x leverage.
The six products cover BTC, ETH, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas, all with 3x leverage.
A 3x leveraged ETF is not meant for long-term holding; intraday fluctuations can wipe out your principal.
But once approved, it will provide institutions with a new hedging tool—leveraging small amounts of capital to leverage large positions. If the direction is right, returns are amplified; if the direction is wrong, losses can be faster.
Cboe himself admitted that the leverage structure does not meet the general listing standards and requires special SEC approval. The SEC's Reg Crypto meeting was just postponed indefinitely due to "scheduling conflicts."
One side is blocking, the other is opening new openings, and the direction is not unified. If approved, BTC's volatility could be further amplified $ETH
$BTC Analysts say Bitcoin is transitioning from a "bear market phase" to an "accumulation phase."
Prices have been compressed, and the macro backdrop remains hawkish—US-Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and big players selling.
The net holding change indicator for long-term holders reached 1.29 million BTC per 30 days on May 24, marking a six-year high.
August closed lower for four consecutive years, with an average drop of 19.38%. Following this pattern, BTC could reach $51,900 or even lower.
The actual loss hit a record $1.37 billion in February, 19% higher than the $1.15 billion in June 2022. The reading has dropped to $597 million, a decrease of 56.5%. Some analysts believe it is too early to say the worst is over.
Coinbase's "accumulation phase" and the "Crypto is Dead" narrative appeared simultaneously. The forecast of 51,900 and long-term holder accumulation at a six-year high are battling. One data point says prices are still falling, another says someone is buying. Both sides have data support, but the direction hasn't emerged yet $BTC $BTC the 63K threshold, BTC has been lying low for another day.
I managed to get 62.5K, bounced back, but just couldn't stand at 63K.
The most interesting thing is: spot money keeps flowing in, with 12 bars in the red in three hours, positive news keeps coming, yet the price just doesn't move.
Looking at the contracts, it's even more outrageous: funding rates are close to the ground, leverage is low, but open interest is increasing, and the basis is still negative.
What does this indicate?
It's not that no one answers, but that someone does, but they can't do it.
After grinding for a week at 65K, it can't even hold above 63K, with the low dropping from 62.8K all the way up to 62.5K.
So now I'm not rushing to buy the dip, nor is I following Planet in shouting for a reversal.
If 63K doesn't hold steady again, all rebounds should be treated as rebounds first.
Wait until real money pushes the price above this threshold before talking about a bull market. #加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced? Norges Bank updated its holdings data from Norges Bank Investment Management yesterday.
As of June 30, the sovereign fund's indirect Bitcoin exposure has increased by about 62% compared to the end of 2024.
The amount of BTC bought directly on the open market was not large; the main increase was in MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital stocks.
Norwegian sovereign wealth funds are among the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world. What they do is not bet on Bitcoin's short-term price fluctuations but gain exposure to crypto assets using traditional financial instruments. Norwegians have taken this path, and Abu Dhabi's Mubadala has followed the same path. Sovereign funds hold Bitcoin indirectly through stocks and ETFs, avoiding the regulatory and custody issues associated with direct cryptocurrency holdings. This trend has clearly accelerated in the first half of 2026. Norwegian sovereign wealth fund rebalancing is usually quarterly and does not change direction due to short-term price fluctuations $BTC Matt Hougan from Bitwise talked about something on a podcast last week.
He said the number of financial advisors they met with in the past month is three times that of the same period in 2025.
Advisors are entering the market faster but still small in scale, with an average allocation size between 1% and 3%.
A family office managing $1 billion, with a 2% allocation, would be $20 million, which would be a buying price of several thousand BTC on the market.
A triple number of inquiries means institutional advisors are accelerating their learning about crypto asset allocation.
At the 62,000 level, Bitcoin is already nearly 50% cheaper than this year's high.
The job of institutional advisors is long-term allocation, not short-term trading. They learn at this level not because they think prices are about to rise, but because prices have already fallen to a level they can explain to clients $BTC 链上数据给的信号比盘面更快。过去24小时LINK大额转账246笔创下五个月高点，其中单笔超十万的异动里，有21.38万枚从交易平台提至Gnosis Safe，这种托管化流出通常不是短线出货特征。巨鲸在9上方拉涨5%后没有回砸，流通盘反而收得更紧。盘面上现价9.038正贴在上沿，向上9.17至9.35堆着大量空头止损，一旦放量破位就是逼空；向下8.6至8.8是近期多头清算带。刚躲到骑手驿站外头擦汗，手机烫得边框都不敢贴耳朵，差点把防守位看岔。这里不追涨，短期超买需要回踩消化。回踩8.72至8.85撑住再进多，止损放8.56下方，目标先看9.32再看9.45；若直接站上9.18且量能跟上，追多防守9.02下方，目标9.45至9.60。跌破8.6就放弃，多头清算会加速下杀。
$LINK
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
@OKX星球 Bitcoin has returned to this level around 62,900 today.
Last night, it surged above 64,000, then dropped like a needle, and now it's shaking at 62,900.
How many times has the 63,000 threshold been touched?
Going back and forth, getting caught going up and then being picked up by someone else when you come down.
Over the past week, it has repeatedly fluctuated between 62,000 and 64,000, with a weak sense of direction.
Today's drop is not closely related to macro factors. The People's Bank of China injected $51.7 billion into the banking system this morning, which should be a positive for loose liquidity. But BTC didn't follow suit and instead fell. $51.7 billion flowing into the banking system is different from flowing into the crypto market—there's a layer of capital controls in between. Not all liquidity flows to the same place.
In the past 24 hours, $88 million was liquidated across the network, with BTC accounting for 31.84 million, long positions blowing up 54 million, and short positions 34 million. Both sides are bleeding $BTC The pressure on the miners' side is still building.
At the beginning of the year, listed mining companies held about 127,000 BTC, but now only 99,000 remain, having sold 28,000 BTC, valued at $1.78 billion.
Miners' reserves dropped 22%, but this was not panic selling; they continued monthly sales.
Some mining companies have already converted their mines into AI data centers, with miners transforming and computing power moving toward AI.
Sellers didn't disappear, just replaced a batch. ETFs were injecting money, miners were selling off. From August 3 to 7, ETFs bought 850 million, the price jumped from 63,000 to 65,000, then stopped. On August 13, ETFs saw another 61.16 million outflows, with BlackRock and Fidelity running simultaneously. Buyers and sellers competed at the same price, unable to push the other. ETF direction was changing, but the momentum wasn't strong enough to form a trend.
If the 62,000 level can't be held, it may go down to 60,000 or even lower. If it holds, 65,000 will be the next hurdle. Spot trading volume has shrunk to its lowest level since 2019; no one is buying or selling, and the market is stuck here. Wait for a catalyst to push buyers out or exhaust the last batch of sellers $BTC Glassnode released data today, and the options market is quite interesting.
Short-term implied volatility has dropped to 26%, but the 6-month term is still at 39%.
No one expects a major market rally in the short term, but long-term uncertainty is still pricing in.
Gamma exposure signals are more direct—negative Gamma is concentrated near $60,000, while positive Gamma is piling up near $70,000. This means that if prices go down, market makers' hedging will accelerate the decline; If prices rebound to around 70,000, market makers will actually stabilize the market. Between 62,000 and 70,000 is almost a vacuum zone; once the price effectively breaks through 63,000, resistance above may be weaker than expected. The current market structure favors bears, but not enough for bears to buy positions with confidence.
AI stocks have already surpassed Bitcoin's volatility; SOXX's 60-day volatility has surged to 70%, while BTC is only about 30%. Funds flowing out of AI may flow toward BTC. But this logic hasn't materialized on the market yet. The direction hasn't been decided yet; wait until 62,000 is broken or 63,000 rises above before talking $BTC BTC reserves on exchanges saw their first net increase in three months in mid-August, adding about 12,000 BTC.
Previously, exchange balances had been declining, which the market generally interpreted as supply tightening. Now, this trend has temporarily stopped.
These 12,000 BTC may not be intended to be dumped. Galaxy Digital transferred 600 BTC to exchanges, most likely for over-the-counter settlement, not directly to the market. But the shift in reserve direction itself is worth noting—at least it shows some people have chosen to move coins from cold wallets back into the trading environment. FTX losses are still ongoing, with about 2,000 to 3,000 BTC flowing into the market each week. This selling force is slowly being absorbed by the market. Increasing reserves does not necessarily lead to price drops, but it changes the previous narrative.
$BTC Sell positions in Broadcom and Apple, buy Nvidia, UAE sovereign fund reallocates holdings!
According to the latest 13F filing, UAE sovereign investment institution Mubadala has cleared out $AVGO, $CRM, and $AAPL, while also creating new $NVDA positions to increase holdings in $MU and $PLTR.
If you only look at the sell list, it's easy to assume that big money is pulling out of tech stocks.
But considering the newly increased holdings, a more accurate judgment is that AI-related stocks are being reselected.
Mubadala shifted funds to NVIDIA and Micron, which are more directly connected to computing power and storage needs.
However, its simultaneous reduction of holdings in ARM and GLOBALFOUNDRIES shows that it is not a full bet on semiconductors, but rather a trade-off among individual stocks.
The fund also bought Ford, Phillips 66, and United Health, and increased holdings in financial and healthcare stocks such as AIG and CVS.
These positions can reduce portfolio volatility during tech pullbacks.
It should be noted that 13F discloses holdings at the end of the previous quarter, which is lagging and cannot show all assets held by the fund through other entities.
Some of the signals sent here are: big money is no longer blindly buying most tech leaders.
It can be seen that in the upcoming market, companies with AI concepts that can fulfill orders and profits are more likely to attract capital.
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up The number of daily coin burns has risen significantly over the past week, roughly double that of the previous week.
This indicator rises to indicate that long-standing Bitcoin is moving again, usually when market structure changes.
Long-term holders have started moving; these addresses have been locked up for months, and recently have started transferring tokens out in batches, with some flowing to exchanges. They haven't sold on a large scale yet, but the direction has already changed. An address that established a position in 2017 transferred about 500 BTC to a new address last week, then transferred some more into exchanges. Such actions have become increasingly frequent in the past two weeks. Long-term tokens are loosening, and chip turnover is happening at the market bottom $BTC The spread between the Asian and New York sessions has recently narrowed.
In recent months, buying interest during the US trading session has been noticeably stronger than in the Asian session, and this spread has basically disappeared recently.
The gap between selling pressure in the Asian session and buying in the US session is narrowing, and the forces on both sides are moving toward balance.
The sell order wall above 64,000 is indeed slowly being eaten, but the pace is very slow. A small platform formed near 63,000, stabilized here after a sharp drop, with no significant increase in volume nor further decline. It seems more like natural trading is happening, not someone forcibly trying to stabilize the market.
The market has entered a new equilibrium—buyers are weak, and sellers are not in a hurry. The 62,000-64,000 range is wearing down the patience of both bulls and bears. Waiting for a catalyst to break this balance. This catalyst may come from macro data or regulatory levels. Before a catalyst appears, prices are likely to continue rubbing repeatedly within this range. This sideways movement is not easy for short-term traders; the space is too small and stop-loss settings are difficult $BTC Grayscale started moving this week.
It's not the usual GBTC redemption process; it's a cold wallet address transferring old BTC on-chain in batches.
These addresses were never sold when they were $120,000 in 2021, but now they're starting to move.
It may not be mass selling; at the bottom, loosening old money is normal for chip turnover. But the direction has indeed changed. From "stagnant holding" to "rotating outward in batches," this difference is more meaningful than how much was transferred.
The 63,000 level has been worn down for almost a month. BTC inflows to exchanges have dropped to their lowest level in nearly three months; no one is depositing coins to sell, and sellers are shrinking. When prices move sideways, neither buyers nor sellers move, but if sellers exit first, buyers move slightly and the price rebounds.
On the miners' side, hash rate continues to decline. It dropped from 1,150 EH/s to 886, a 23% decrease. Core Scientific and TeraWulf are already shifting toward AI data centers. Miners are transforming, selling isn't over yet, but selling power is gradually depleting. Spot trading volume has shrunk to its lowest level since 2019. Extreme contraction itself is a signal, at least indicating that selling pressure is about to dry up $BTC