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Trump is about to hold another "meeting" for the crypto world.
Next week, at this White House crypto industry conference, a bunch of big names like Coinbase, Ripple, and Gemini will attend in person, with the CFTC chairman and several senior government officials also attending, and even the Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary may be present.
The focus is not just on BTC.
Crypto assets, fintech, and AI—these three things are discussed directly on one table.
I think the signal this sends is very clear:
The U.S. is no longer discussing "whether to embrace crypto," but rather discussing how to truly integrate crypto, AI, and the financial system.
I'm not that optimistic about whether BTC will take off directly because of this short-term event.
But if policies on regulation, stablecoins, and RWA continue to move forward, the real big market may not rely on Trump's words, but rather on the U.S. beginning to reprice the entire crypto industry.
This time, it's worth keeping an eye on $BTC NEAR AI staking surpassed 500,000 in two weeks—the AIx crypto track is still being explored
On July 30, NEAR AI launched a staking feature, allowing users to lock NEAR tokens to earn periodic AI computing quotas. Within two weeks of launch, the staked amount exceeded 500,000 tokens.
But not all AIx crypto projects have gone smoothly. On August 5, Eliza Labs founder Shaw Walters announced the official "death" of the ai16z/ElizaOS token, and the related foundation would be shut down. This once highly anticipated "crypto xAI" pioneer came to a quiet end.
Binance's compliant AI tools reportedly helped recover $60.2 million by 2026 and intercept billions in potential fraud—but this is unrelated to token prices.
The integration of AI and crypto is still in its early exploratory stage. NEAR's staking data shows real demand, and ai16z's death means the bubble is bursting. This sector needs real use cases, not narrative packaging.Fundamental Research Report $ONE / Harmony (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
One-sentence conclusion: Harmony ($ONE) has an overall score of 58/100, with a rating that narrative outweighs implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's look at the project first: Harmony (token $ONE), public chain/L1 track. Focuses on sharded cross-chain public chains. Benchmarked against ETH and ATOM. Traditional inter-enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas surges, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents frequently occur. Public chains use unified state machines for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, with USDC or fiat settlement required. Narrative-driven track, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially operational, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
On the user side, address MAU is not disclosed, DAU is not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active individuals; concentrated holdings of large addresses overestimate actual user numbers. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy and burn annualized without a burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profits do not equal protocol profits, protocol profits do not equal token holders profit. Code side: 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look at PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, refer to whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level but do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs; for technical integration, see API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. Using NVIDIA GPUs does not mean NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not mean strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating volume), burn buyback annualized rate, no clear buyback burn. Must you buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Looking at it together with peers (unified caliber, no cross-sector random comparison): Circulating market cap: Harmony $3.00B, ETH undisclosed, ATOM undisclosed. FDV: Harmony $4.20B, ETH undisclosed, ATOM undisclosed. Annualized revenue: Harmony $2.00M, ETH undisclosed, ATOM undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Harmony undisclosed, ETH undisclosed, ATOM undisclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; some omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% of the original price, oscillating in a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubles, burns are implemented, enterprise clients are in, FDV corresponds to P/S, aligning with the top companies. To sum up: solid fundamentals (score 58/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high compared to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risks to note: short-term large unlock and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekliness, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on publicly available data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
That's all for the content—judge for yourself.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitOut of options? Bring out Dormant BTC as backup
3.56 million BTC "sleep" hit a new high, accounting for 17.7% of the circulating supply.
This data sounds impressive—the banner of "scarcity" is being raised again, but if you think about it, all the funds are frenzied in US stocks, BTC trading volume has shrunk to such a low level, and no one is buying no matter how much is dormant.
Like the previous round of CPI rate hikes and consumer data, this data only provides a new narrative angle for the market. Scarcity is the long-term logic, but short-term price is about liquidity—ETFs are flowing out, stablecoins are running, the siphon effect of US stock indices remains strong, and no matter how much BTC is dormant, it can't push prices.
With no new money coming in, scarcity is just a slogan—wait until the US market pauses and capital flows back, then talk about scarcity.
💤 #BTC沉睡供应创新高, scarcity is once again under scrutiny 闪迪长期协议成焦点，今天开盘更值得看“兑现力度”
闪迪投资者日之后，市场交易逻辑已经明显从“短期业绩”转向“长期确定性”。
这次最大的亮点，是闪迪公布了FY2028-FY2030长期财务框架：预计营收保持中高双位数增长，调整后毛利率约 80%、营业利润率约 75%、自由现金流利润率约 50%。同时，公司表示会将投资业务后的全部剩余现金回馈股东。 
更关键的是长期协议。
闪迪目前已经与8家客户签署New Business Model协议，合同总价值约939亿美元，其中包括3家大型美国超大规模数据中心客户；这些协议预计覆盖FY2027约一半、FY2028约三分之二的bit出货量。 
这意味着市场开始重新给闪迪定价：
以前：存储周期股。
现在：AI基础设施+长期合同+高现金流的成长股。
但今天开盘反而是一个重要验证
投资者日当天，SNDK已经上涨约13.7%，随后周五继续上涨约6.5%至1628美元附近。也就是说，长期利好已经被市场提前交易了一部分。 
所以今天真正值得看的不是“还能不能涨”，而是：
利好兑现之后，市场还有没有新的买盘。
如果开盘继续强势，并且上涨过程中成交量同步放大，说明资金认可的不只是短期消息，而是认可公司未来几年的盈利框架。
如果出现高开低走、冲高回落，则说明短线获利盘开始兑现，市场可能进入消化估值的阶段。
我更关注三个信号
① 长期协议有没有转化成真实收入和现金流。
合同金额很大，但最终还是要看执行情况。
② 80%毛利率目标能不能维持。
这是整个估值重构的核心。如果未来利润率明显低于目标，市场可能重新把它当周期股定价。
③ 股价上涨后，资金是否继续愿意追。
基本面好并不意味着股价每天都涨。现在最大的风险已经从“业绩不够好”变成了“预期太高”。
一句话：
闪迪投资者日把长期故事讲得更清楚了，长期协议提高了业绩确定性；但今天开盘才是市场对这套故事的第一次重新定价。
如果高开后还能稳住并继续放量，说明长期资金认可度较高；如果高开快速跳水，则要警惕“利好兑现”。
所以我会把今天看成一个基本面确认日，而不是单纯的追涨日。$BTC #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证 #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证
Talking about this wave of long-term agreements from SanDisk, the community has been buzzing these past few days. Just yesterday, I was chatting with brothers in the group, debating whether this is real money or just hype. Today, after checking the data, wow—$93.9 billion floor price, $16.5 billion margin, weighted NBM agreements over four years—this isn’t just signing contracts, it’s basically rewriting the playbook for the storage industry.
The old storage game of "annual talks and repeatedly harvesting at cycle bottoms" is probably going to be overturned by this wave of long-term agreements. I skimmed Goldman Sachs’ report too; four original manufacturers simultaneously extended contracts to five years, squeezing buyer flexibility tight. SanDisk locked about 60% of FY27 and FY28 capacity, with floor price estimates guaranteeing at least $23 billion in annual revenue, which is even higher than the total revenue of the past four quarters. Simply put, they’ve welded the cycle bottom shut, raising the floor directly to the previous ceiling.
But honestly, $94 billion doesn’t mean cash in hand, and 80% gross margin isn’t the current real profit. Whether this can actually be realized depends on hard metrics like actual customer shipments, yield rates, and costs. One thing is certain—AI cloud providers are willing to pay a premium for stable capacity, and SanDisk sacrificed some upside for certainty in cash flow and capacity utilization.
Looking at the market now. SNDK’s TradFi Perp trading volume on platforms like OKX and Gate accounts for over 45%, and on Binance, one SNDK accounts for nearly 30% of TradFi Perp daily volume. After last week’s investor day, it surged 14% straight up, rebounding about 35% in a week. However, it also dropped 8% after hours when the market felt the guidance wasn’t explosive enough. The bulls and bears are battling fiercely; a whale added $15.55 million long positions near 1240. Technically, 1650 is a major resistance level, and volume has been shrinking recently. Some are looking to buy on a pullback to 1530, short if it breaks 1510; others think there’s limited room to chase longs or shorts here and prefer to wait for a pullback to 1450.
Personally, I think the long-term agreement logic is sound, but the market can be irrational sometimes. Whether this "Di King" rally is a fundamental revaluation or a short squeeze really depends on how it opens. Anyway, my position isn’t heavy; I kept some ammo to see how things go—missing out hurts less than losing money, but getting stuck is even worse, those who know, know.
Brothers, what do you think about this wave of SanDisk? Buy in or wait?
$SNDK 这周，加密行业的目光几乎都押在了8月19日那场白宫会议上。 据多家媒体报道，特朗普预计亲自出席，与Coinbase、Ripple、a16z、Chainlink、Kalshi、Paradigm等加密及预测市场公司的高管会面。Kraken、Gemini、纽交所和纳斯达克的代表也 reportedly 获邀，SEC主席Paul Atkins与CFTC主席Michael Selig预计在场。 这场会议为什么这么关键？ 因为加密行业最看重的市场结构法案——CLARITY Act，已经卡在国会的时间墙上。 这部法案要解决的核心问题，就是明确SEC与CFTC的监管边界：什么代币属于证券，什么属于数字商品，交易平台又该向谁注册。 法案并不是毫无进展。 2025年7月，众议院以294票赞成、134票反对通过CLARITY Act；2026年5月14日，参议院银行委员会又以15票对9票将其推进至全院审议。美国众议院投票记录、参议院银行委员会 但真正进入参议院谈判后，几个关键问题始终没有谈拢： 一是如何限制总统及其他高级官员利用职务从加密业务中获利；
二是稳定币奖励和收益产品是否应该受到限制；
三是反洗钱与Institutional sentiment has quietly shifted, with ETH ETF relative inflows crushing BTC
According to the latest data from DWF Labs, by fund size proportion, ETH spot ETF funds have clearly outperformed BTC since June.
During the June market correction, ETH ETFs accounted for 4.65% of net outflows, while BTC ETFs reached 8.09%; In July, the market rebounded, with ETH ETFs accounting for 3.19% net inflows, 9.4 times higher than BTC's 0.34%, indicating a shift in institutional allocation preferences.
As early as May, DWF commented that institutional interest in ETH was generally low and funds continued to weaken, but the trend has reversed in recent weeks. Note, this is a relative proportion; BTC's absolute capital volume remains larger, representing internal institutional position rebalancing rather than a complete abandonment of Bitcoin.
A capital tilt does not mean the market will explode immediately; a price increase in volume is needed to confirm the strengthening of the ETH/BTC ratio. If the trend of net ETF inflows continues, Ethereum will have a chance to emerge from an independent rally; If it reverses into inflows, it will still follow the broader market fluctuations.
What do you think: with this round of capital shifts, can ETH outperform BTC?Anthropic's IPO pricing model, based on 2028 forward revenue, is over-drawing the market's risk appetite for tech infrastructure spending. Wall Street anchors forward multiples to SpaceX and Palantir, but GPU computing power and high training investment continue to squeeze short-term cash flow, with long positions heavily concentrated in forward realization. If forward revenue growth falls short of expectations or infrastructure costs drag down margins, squeezed positions face valuation revision risks. Key indicators are whether operating profit in Q2 2026 can reach $559 million and revenue may double quarter-on-quarter.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高, scarcity draws attention again #消费动能转弱, September policy remains constrained by inflation$MOONSHOT Compared to Zhipu, this one has lower revenue but its market value is already close to Zhipu. Neither of them is profitable, and Zhipu itself is already extremely overvalued, refer to my post in the Zhipu updates. The dark side of this month can at least be expected to drop by half. 北京时间 8 月 17 日晨，彭博社报道表示，支付巨头 Stripe 已经敲定了对 AI 基础设施初创公司 OpenRouter（小彩蛋：OpenRouter 的联合创始人 Alex Atallah，创办的上一家公司叫 OpenSea）的收购，收购金额虽未及此前市场传闻的 100 亿美元，但仍超过 70 亿美元。 虽然本次收购的推进早已不是什么秘密，市场对于双方的战略匹配需求也并不陌生，但当交易终于确认之后，市场仍出现了大量的质疑声音。质疑的核心问题在于 —— OpenRouter 真的值这么多钱吗？ Odaily注：百万大V、知名投资人 Jason 也已表达对这笔交易的不理解。 毕竟，在今年 5 月底 OpenRouter 完成 1.13 亿美元 B 轮融资，估值还“仅有”约 13 亿美元，短短两个多月后，Stripe 便需要掏出五倍有余的真金白银。与此同时，OpenRouter目前的收入规模似乎也难以支撑如此高的价格，市场预估该平台目前的年化收入约为 5000 万美元，以 70 亿美元的收购价计算对应着 140 倍的夸张市销率。 此外更关键的是，OpenRouter 的核心业务看起$BTC 🔥霍尔木兹海峡要通了？伊朗放话：美国先兑现承诺！
刚刚，伊朗革命卫队高级官员扔出一枚“ geopolitical 炸弹”——若美国履行“伊斯兰堡备忘录”中的承诺，霍尔木兹海峡将重新开放！这话从革命卫队政治副司令亚多拉·贾瓦尼口中说出，分量十足。
$ETH 要知道，这条海峡可是全球原油运输的“咽喉要道”，每天承载近2000万桶石油过境。自去年地缘冲突升温以来，伊朗多次在该区域举行军演、扣押油轮，事实上的“半封锁”状态让航运保险飙升、油价脉冲式波动。如今德黑兰首次明确给出“解封条件”，等于把皮球踢回华盛顿。
$OKB 但问题来了——“伊斯兰堡备忘录”究竟包含哪些承诺？外界猜测涉及美国放松部分制裁、释放冻结资产，甚至重启核谈判的私下条款。白宫目前尚未回应，而市场已经闻风而动——布伦特原油在消息传出后短线跳水1.2%，比特币同步小幅拉升，避险情绪与风险偏好罕见拉扯。
对交易者而言，此刻最该盯紧三件事：
1️⃣ 美国官方表态（是接球还是晾着？）
2️⃣ 霍尔木兹附近航运保险报价（实时晴雨表）
3️⃣ 伊朗革命卫队后续实际行动（嘴炮 vs 实锤）#闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证
若海峡真的重新开放，国际油价可能迎来5-8美元的短期回调，但若美方冷淡回应，地缘溢价将迅速反扑。无论多空，当前仓位务必系好安全带——这条水道的一举一动，牵动的都是真金白银。#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 0xcf91b70017eabde82c9671e30e5502d312ea6eb2#OKX预言家第二季正式上线 $AAPL I hold a long position on AAPL at 305. The logic of this trade isn't chasing gains, but rather a series of recovery rally around the 300–305 support zone after a sharp drop in earnings.
At the end of July, AAPL peaked at 344.57, but after the earnings report, it plunged 7.35% in a single day, hitting a low of 300. Although it rebounded to around 316, it tested 300.57 again on August 12, but recovered 305.93 last Friday.
✔ The advantage of going long on 305 is that it is not far from the key support between 300 and 302, making the risk position relatively clear. There have already been two take-offs in this area, indicating that some funds are temporarily willing to take over.
✔ Apple's performance is actually not bad. Quarterly revenue was $109.4 billion, up 16% year-on-year; EPS grew 29% year-on-year, with iPhone, Mac, and services all setting records for the June quarter. The post-report decline was not due to a performance crash, but rather because the market had previously overly optimistic expectations.
✔ The real pressure comes from a 9%–11% revenue growth guidance for the next quarter falling short of market expectations, along with rising memory prices and insufficient advanced chip capacity squeezing profit margins. Last quarter's gross margin was further aided by tariff refunds, which cannot be repeated long-term.
✔ The next positive expectations are mainly September new products, foldable iPhones, and Apple Intelligence's entry into the Chinese market. But these are still expectations for now; price breakthroughs are needed to prove capital support.
In the short term, first look at the resistance at 308–311; after holding firm, look to 313–316; breaking through 316 will have a chance to continue recovering to 320–325, and if strong, look for around 330.
If we continue to use my previous failure level near 299.4, 305 to 299.4 will take about $5.6 risk. Based on a 1:3 P/L ratio, the target should at least be around 322, which coincides with the resistance zone above.
So the direction and position of this long position are reasonable, but it's not necessarily bullish at the moment. I won't keep adding to my position. If I hold 300 and wait for a recovery, if the daily chart effectively breaks below 300, the logic for this support rebound needs to be re-evaluated.Unrealized loss of 210 million but refusing to cut losses: 18-fold dilution after issuing new shares in half a year, yet another US stock company is frantically imitating micro-strategies?
Nasdaq small-cap stocks are pushing WeStrategy's Bitcoin financial skills to the extreme, even if their books are smashed and bleeding.
According to the latest 2026 first-half financial report disclosed by Nasdaq-listed GD Culture Group, its holdings of 7,500 Bitcoins generated an unrealized unrealized unrealized loss of $211.8 million over the past six months, directly accounting for 97.9% of the company's net loss for the same period.
In other words, the company's core business profits and losses are almost negligible, and its entire balance sheet has become an amplifier of Bitcoin's volatility. Yet even facing a floating loss of over $200 million, the company still refuses to sell a single core Bitcoin reserve.
Resisting Bitcoin and refusing to sell may seem like a strong belief, but what's even more intriguing is the fundraising trick behind the scenes.
The financial report shows that after the reverse stock split adjustment, the company's total shares surged to 4.1625 million in just half a year, directly reaching 18.15 times the amount at the end of 2025. In this wild capital inflation, as many as 99.65% of the new shares came from issuing shares in the secondary market to exchange for cash.
The underlying path of this operation is very clear: treating the company as a leveraged Bitcoin custodian shell.
It's fine if the main business isn't profitable; as long as you can frequently issue shares in the US market to circulate fiat currency, then keep buying the real money you earn into Bitcoin, you can earn so-called net asset premium in a bull market. But the cruelest cost of this strategy is silently borne by retail investors holding shares in the secondary market. A 18-fold dilution in half a year means the equity per share held by old shareholders is mercilessly diluted.
The more dangerous hidden danger lies in the liquidity countdown.
As of the end of June, the company had only $7.2 million in cash and $36.6 million in working capital on its books, which is expected to cover debt expenses for the next 12 months.
MicroStrategy was able to successfully operate this flywheel because it has a massive market capitalization, extremely low financing channels for low-yield convertible bonds, and stable cash flow from its core software business. For small-cap US stocks with fragile risk resistance, once Bitcoin enters a prolonged deep sideways phase or the secondary market is unwilling to pay for high-premium additional issuances, these pseudo-MicroStrategy companies that rely heavily on stocks for dilution are very likely to hit liquidity icebergs when their debts mature.
For ordinary investors, understanding the true nature of such corporate treasuries is crucial. Don't blindly rush in just because you hold a few thousand Bitcoins; buying these stocks often means not buying hardcore Bitcoins, but paper certificates that could be diluted into worthless paper by massive issuance at any time.
Seeing more and more small and mid-cap US stocks diluting their equity by more than ten times to stockpile Bitcoin, do you think this is a shortcut for retail investors to get into crypto assets, or is it a financial scheme that could blow up at any moment?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR，NFA。
#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion 这次巨亏主角是全球顶级高频做市商简街资本Jane Street，7月单月亏损约150亿美元，为2016年以来首次月度亏损 。即便亏掉这笔资金，该公司今年截至7月交易收入依旧超400亿美元，家底依旧雄厚，并不会直接出现倒闭风险。 亏损导火索来自它重仓投资的明星AI对冲基金Situational Awareness。该基金操盘手为前OpenAI研究员，上半年依靠最高4倍杠杆重仓存储芯片标的闪迪、美光，半年净值暴涨439%，规模冲到450亿美元，吸引大量机构资金入场，简街就是最重要投资方之一 。7月AI存储赛道集体杀跌，闪迪单月最大回撤超46%、美光下跌28.69%，高杠杆头寸触发保证金危机，只能折价甩卖持仓给城堡证券，简街这笔投资直接重创，叠加自身科技股头寸亏损，最终形成150亿月度巨亏。 这件事直接传导到加密市场的核心点，就是美股映射存储代币板块。SNDK、MU这类代币情绪高度绑定美股正股，此前存储赛道的拥挤交易风险已经被这次华尔街爆仓事件赤裸裸展示出来。今天$SNDK依旧逆势冲高，游资炒作热度还在，但机构已经在快速收缩AI赛道风险敞口，中长期赛道的不确定性大幅抬升。 放到整🪙 This is one of the cheapest times to buy volatility in years.
However, the data shows recent buyers still did not make money.
$BTC simply delivered less movement than people paid for.Stablecoins are becoming the underlying settlement network for the crypto market. But a commonly misunderstood phenomenon is that the massive amount of stablecoin transfers does not equal massive real spending payments. The latest data shows that since 2026, the cumulative adjusted settlement volume of stablecoins has reached $41.7 trillion, with single-day adjusted transfers exceeding $250 billion in some periods. What's even more noteworthy is that USDC's 'money speed' is completely different from USDT. 01|USDC: 741 turnovers in one year, USDT only 74 times. According to Talos data: USDC's annualized circulation rate: 741 times. USDT's annualized circulation rate: 74 times. USDC's turnover rate is about 10 times that of USDT, but USDT's market cap is still over $100 billion higher than USDC's. This means USDC is more like "high-frequency on-chain funds," while USDT is more like "widely distributed global digital dollars." USDC's high-frequency circulation largely comes from DeFi, arbitrage, and institutional settlement. USDT, especially on Tron, takes on more roles in platform fund allocation, deposits and withdrawals, and cross-border capital flows. 02 | 41.7 trillion USD, who is really spinning? Breaking down stablecoin transfers, an interesting fact emerges: a large volume of trading volume actually comes from "mechanical flows" within the crypto market. It mainly includes three categories: (1) LightningDuring Monday's Asian session, Bitcoin stayed near $63,500, with a slight 24-hour correction, but the weekly chart still closed lower. The entire crypto market has not seen a full-scale rebound; incremental funds are limited, and the market has become a typical structural grouping, with the gap between strong and weak coins widening. 📊ETF funds reverse, institutions cash in short-term Funds Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $853.5 million for five consecutive days the previous week, and the market was optimistic. Market Turnaround in Just One Week: Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $390 million over five consecutive trading days, with Fidelity's $FBTC seeing a single outflow of $153 million. In contrast, Ethereum ETF outflows were very modest, with only a net outflow of $2.26 million. Institutions took profits on BTC at high prices and did not massively sell ETH. The back-and-forth of funds is also a key reason why BTC's upward momentum has waned after surging above 65,000. 📈 Overview of major currency trends BTC $63,460 | 24h +0.7%, 7-day -2.3% Key resistance: $65,000-66,000, not yet recovered$ETH $1900 | 24h +1%, 7-day -0.8% $XRP Close to $1 | 7-day -2.8% $SOL $75.47 | 7-day -1.4% $BNB around $605 | 7-day +0.6% The total market capitalization is $2.24 trillion, with BTC at $1.27 trillion, accounting for nearly 57% of the market. The pancake supports the plate, but there are manyBTCFi is at a turning point! STX is solid, CORE is hardcore, MERL is elastic, and BABY is lying in wait
⚠️ Risk warning: This article only outlines the logic and technical framework of the sector and does not constitute any investment advice
As the Bitcoin ecosystem continues to ferment, many investors classify STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY as similar targets. In fact, although all four projects are involved in the BTCFi track, their underlying positioning, asset security models, and value development paths differ greatly.
1. Core Positioning: Four completely different development directions
STX (Stacks): A pioneer of Bitcoin's native L2
Stacks is one of the earliest players in the Bitcoin Layer 2 track, using PoX consensus and the proprietary Clarity programming language, allowing smart contracts to be deployed without modifying Bitcoin's underlying layer.
Relying on sBTC to build the Bitcoin upper-layer DeFi ecosystem, Nakamoto upgraded to enable fast transaction confirmation. The shortcoming is its incompatibility with EVM, making it harder for developers to expand their ecosystem and following a pure Bitcoin-native route.
CORE (Core DAO): An independent L1 public chain for building the Bitcoin grid
CORE is not part of the Bitcoin Layer 2 network but is an independent Layer 1. Relying on the Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, it introduces Bitcoin idle computing power as a security foundation, fully compatible with EVM.
The vision is to build a "Bitcoin Grid" BTCFi infrastructure, catering to retail BTC staking, with a focus on promoting lstBTC institutional liquid staking services, covering diversified financial scenarios such as lending, payments, and RWA.
MERL (Merlin Chain): Exclusive ZK Layer 2 channel for inscription assets
MERL is a Bitcoin ZK-Rollup Layer 2 network, originally created to solve the pain points of congestion and high gas costs caused by BRC20 and Ordinals inscriptions on the BTC mainnet.
Supports EVM adaptation, focuses on serving the trading and liquidity release of Bitcoin's native inscription assets, with market trends highly tied to the inscription sector's popularity, and sector prosperity directly determines project profit potential.
BABY (Babylon): Bitcoin shared security underlying protocol
It has the highest sector recognition. It does not support various DeFi applications and is an underlying staking middleware.
User BTC does not need to be cross-chain or packaged and mapped; it is stored long-term at the Bitcoin mainnet address; Through cryptographic staking, Bitcoin's top-level security capabilities are rented out to the entire PoS public chain, opening up a unique "secure leasing" track.
2. Security Watershed: A Hardcore Comparison of BTC Asset Custody Models
This is the most critical dimension for screening targets, with risk levels clearly visible:
✅ BABY (Optimal Safety Model)
BTC is kept at Bitcoin's native UTXO address, with no custody, no asset encapsulation, no cross-chain bridge risk, relying on cryptography for staking and currently the lowest trust cost solution.
✅ CORE (Non-Managed Mode)
User BTC is locked in the CLTV time lock on the Bitcoin mainnet, and asset principal does not leave the BTC network; The only dispute: Staking data and reward information require relay nodes to synchronize across chains.
⚠️ STX (Alliance Signature Mode)
Asset interoperability is achieved through sBTC, with assets securely bound to decentralized signer alliances. Although penalty mechanisms are in place, theoretically there is a risk of alliance collaborative malpractice.
⚠️ MERL (MPC Managed Model)
User BTC is transferred to the MPC multi-signature custody pool, mapping the on-chain asset stMBTC. Native BTC is separated from the mainnet, asset security depends on custodians, posing counterparty risk.
3. Token Value Capture: Comparison of Long-Term Profit Logic
STX
Ecosystem interaction consumes STX, staking tokens can earn BTC rewards, creating a BTC-based yield system, with value continuously expanding through the sBTC ecosystem.
CORE
The dual staking mechanism brings long-term token locking demand; By 2026, the company will fully enter the revenue era, generating cash flow through lstBTC institutional service fees, SatPay payment services, and on-chain fees, with plans to use revenue for buybacks.
MERL
Ecosystem fees and DeFi value-added services generate profits; The official explicitly allows 50% of ecosystem profits for token buybacks. On-chain gas is prioritized for BTC, while MERL is mainly used for node staking and community governance.
BABY
Core revenue comes from PoS public chain security leasing fees; Tokens handle network gas and governance functions, with inflation rewards distributed to BTC stakers and BABY staking users.
4. Summary
STX: A conservative figure in the Bitcoin ecosystem, sticking to its native route, with a stable style, suitable for investors who prefer BTC-margined returns.
CORE: A comprehensive infrastructure player, independent public blockchain + institutional narrative, diversified Bitcoin finance layout, rich growth potential.
MERL: Elastic market target, deeply tied to the inscription track, suitable for betting on native asset cyclical markets.
BABY: A dark horse in underlying infrastructure, creating a differentiated track with extreme asset security, suitable for long-term low-level narratives.
In a bull market cycle, rather than simply chasing market fluctuations, distinguishing the underlying project tracks and asset custody risks is the key to long-term survival.
#STX #CORE #MERL #BABY #BTCFi💰 Did whales go long at the top of the local #BTC range?
Whale net long positioning on Hyperliquid peaked right into resistance.
Spot and flow data still show no matching demand.1、$SNDK（闪迪） 现价1734.44美元，24小时成交额8.37亿USDT，热度断层领跑整个存储赛道，合约持仓量遥遥领先另外两个币种。受投资者日超高景气度指引刺激，正股机构目标价上调，日线走出连阳行情，但RSI6达到85.04已经进入严重超买区间，短期回调风险持续累积。短线压力1775‑1780，支撑1646‑1655。大量游资扎堆交易，美股休市时段极易走出脱离正股的独立脉冲行情。 2、$MU（美光科技） 日内跟随板块情绪震荡，24小时合约成交额仅3200万USDT，资金关注度只有SNDK的1/26左右。正股有机构上调目标价至1250美元，基本面利好充足，但币圈场内资金参与意愿偏低，走势几乎完全锚定美股正股，很少走出独立行情。上方压力995‑1000，支撑940。它属于赛道内的跟随型标的，只有板块全面爆发才会迎来弹性。 3、$SKHY（SK海力士） 三里面资金热度最低，成交活跃度偏弱。韩方本土存储涨价消息偶尔带来短期脉冲，但持续性很差，大部分时间被动跟随板块整体节奏。该代币缺少独立叙事，资金不会优先选择它作为进攻标的，更多是赛道情绪高潮后的补涨品种。上方压力156，支撑1Don't rush to ask when $BTC will skyrocket? Let's break down the underlying logic behind the "surge," rather than guessing "when":
1. First, define "surge"
If you mean a "20% rise in one day," it usually requires a sudden liquidity shock (such as a black swan signal, an emergency Fed rate cut, or a major power announcing $BTC as a strategic reserve). Such events are unpredictable and can only wait.
If it refers to a "trending surge" (for example, from 60,000 to 100,000+ yuan), it doesn't need to be "one day," but rather a cyclical process. What this process currently lacks is not time, but narrative and capital support.
2. What are the current "roadblocks"?
· Halving effect weakens: past spikes after halvings were due to supply-demand imbalances. Now, ETFs have long overdrawn expectations in advance; although miners' costs have risen, institutional market makers' hedging methods prevent "supply shortages" from directly triggering prices.
· Macro liquidity shackles: $BTC is now a risk asset, not a safe-haven asset. As long as the Fed doesn't clearly switch to rate cuts and releases massive liquidity, big money (institutions) won't rush in to pump prices wildly. They prefer to sell high and low within the range to rack up volatility rather than push prices higher to help you break even.
· Chip structure: Currently, the 60,000–70,000 yuan range has accumulated huge trapped and profit-taking positions. To surge sharply, you must first undergo thorough "rotation" here—washing out those who are undecided and transferring chips to strong players or long-term holders. This process is painful and exhausting.
3. When might it "move"?
The truly noteworthy timing is not "one day," but macro data turning points (such as a sustained drop in CPI and rising unemployment forcing the Fed to turn dovish) and on-chain whale movements (when exchange $BTC balances experience sustained large net outflows and stablecoin inflows surge).
Conclusion:
Don't ask "When," or "If prices don't surge now, what's your strategy?"
Real surges often happen when most people stop asking "when will the surge begin?" because by then they are already fully invested or have already sold their losses and exited, the market is pessimistic, and whales are quietly accumulating shares.
If you're currently in a short position, it's more reliable to wait for the 'day of the surge' with a staggered investment ratio; If you're fully invested now, close the candlestick and go back to your business, because anxiety can't resolve volatility and will only make you sell your shares on the night before the surge occurs.
So, don't rush to ask—ask yourself first: If the price doesn't rise for the next six months, can I withstand it? If I can hold out, a surge will naturally follow; If not, even if a surge comes, you won't be able to reach the top. That's the key. #闪迪长期协议成焦点, opening performance needs to be verified. #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound #OKX预言家第二季正式上线? 长期供货协议是当下市场研判闪迪走势的核心变量，也是机构重塑公司估值逻辑的关键依据，开盘行情将直接检验资金对长协价值的认可度。 一、长协核心价值，彻底改变存储周期逻辑 闪迪已与8家头部云厂商签订新型多年供货协议，保底收入939亿美元，合约平均周期超4年，2028财年三分之二产能提前锁定。不同于传统单边约束的短期订单，新协议设置价格上下限、客户预付款与违约担保，双向绑定供需双方，即便NAND现货价格进入下行周期，公司也能锁定稳定保底营收，大幅熨平存储行业强周期性波动。同时AI推理场景对大容量NAND需求持续爆发，云厂商主动锁仓产能规避缺货涨价风险，长协落地直接印证AI存储长期需求景气度。 二、市场分歧，决定开盘多空博弈 多头逻辑：长协完成收入保底，公司从周期股转型AI基础设施成长标的，叠加80%毛利率长期指引，伯恩斯坦等机构大幅上调目标价，看好估值持续抬升。 空头担忧：长协保底定价低于当前现货市价，远期高毛利弹性被压缩；年内股价涨幅巨大，市场预期已充分兑现，若后续AI客户新增订单放缓、NAND价格回落，业绩增速存在回落压力。 三、开盘行情观察要点 1. 量能：高开且放量，代表资金认可BTC, 자금 흐름의 방향이 포지션의 생존 조건을 결정한다 숏 스퀴즈보다 롱 청산이 먼저 도래할 가능성은 이미 가격에 얼마나 반영됐는가? 미국 현물 ETF 수요 둔화가 감지되는 가운데 BTC는 63,000달러 부근에 머물고 있다. 같은 기간 파생시장의 레버리지는 누적되고 있다. 이 조합은 단기 변동성 확대의 전형적인 사전 조건이다. 문제는 방향이 아니라, 현재 가격대에서 어느 쪽 포지션이 먼저 움직이느냐다. 자금 행동을 보면, ETF 순유입이 줄어들면서 현물 매수 주체의 강도가 약해졌다. 반면 선물시장의 미결제약정과 레버리지 비율은 상승 곡선을 그리고 있다. 이는 동일한 가격 수준에서 현물 수요는 후퇴하고, 레버리지 롱은 증가했음을 의미한다. 결과적으로 63,000달러 지지선이 무너질 경우, 청산 물량이 추가 매도 압력으로 전환되는 경로가 열린다. 이 구조는 BTC에만 국한되지 않는다. ETH의 방향성은 BTC 대비 상대 강도에 달려 있다. ETH/BTC 비율이 안정되거나 현물 수요Bitcoin’s headline supply figure may overstate the amount realistically available to trade. Onchain estimates place lost or dormant BTC near 3.56 million, or roughly 17.7% of circulating supply, though inactivity and UTXO age cannot distinguish lost keys from deliberate long-term holding.
The useful signal is therefore not a precise scarcity adjustment, but a reminder that effective float can be much tighter than issuance data suggests. Even so, dormant supply alone is not a price catalyst: ETF flows, onchain selling and macro risk appetite still determine whether constrained float matters at the margin. Not advice, just analysis.
#BTCDormantSupplyRecord$ETH — I’m holding a long from $1,878, but this isn’t a chase of the recent bounce.
The setup is based on repeated support around $1,865–$1,875.
After ETH was rejected above $1,900, price has been consolidating around $1,870–$1,890. Buyers are still appearing on dips, but the $1,895–$1,910 resistance zone hasn’t been decisively reclaimed.
So far, there’s no clear breakout confirmation.
✅ Why $1,878?
It’s close to short-term support, which gives the trade a relatively clear invalidation point.
⚠️ What’s the problem?
The broader market is still range-bound. BTC remains capped around $63K, while ETH spot ETF flows have cooled compared with the previous week.
So for now, I see this as support-based accumulation—not confirmation of a new uptrend.
I’m using 75× leverage, so risk management has to be extremely strict. I won’t stubbornly hold through major support levels such as $1,840.
🎯 Key levels:
• $1,865 → Short-term support / invalidation
• $1,895–$1,910 → Key resistance
• $1,920–$1,950 → Upside targets if breakout confirms
If $1,865 is the invalidation level, the risk from $1,878 is roughly $13.
With a 1:3 risk/reward, the minimum target is around $1,917, which sits close to the $1,920 resistance area.
I remain cautiously bullish, but not blindly bullish.
And with high leverage, one rule matters above everything else:
Stop loss must come before liquidation.
Being right about the direction means nothing if normal volatility wipes out the position first. 🫡
$ETH $BTC
NFA. DYOR.
#SandiskDealsInFocus #BTCVolumeDriesUp #AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元
《简街栽了，4倍杠杆的坑不分贵贱》
做市巨头简街单月亏150亿美元，十年头一回。
砸它的，是AI神童Aschenbrenner的基金，4倍杠杆押AI股，7月崩盘，打折甩给Citadel。
简街这笔仓位从峰值100亿美元缩到35亿，单笔亏近70亿。4倍杠杆是什么概念？底层跌25%，本金归零。这公式我熟，前年我在4倍杠杆山寨上爆过仓，跌到22%穿仓，那晚我一夜没睡。
合伙人Batty内部信只留一句原话："July was a bad month."群友说，十年不亏的巨头都要打折卖货，我那晚爆仓不丢人。
我盯的信号在后面。简街一边找Pimco谈110亿美元私募信贷，一边发146亿美元债券再融资，亏损才曝光。顶级做市商去杠杆，等于市场少了台接盘机器，流动性一缩，踩踏式下跌会来得更急。
前7个月简街仍赚超400亿美元，超去年全年纪录，150亿只是它嘴里的bad month。散户亏掉本金就是出局。现在动手算算自己的杠杆倍数和爆仓距离，这比围观神童有用。$BTC On-chain statistics show that about 3.56 million $BTC have remained unchanged for over ten years, accounting for 17.7% of the current circulating supply, setting a new record.
I always leave some room for such claims of "permanent loss."
Indeed, losing private keys, forgetting passwords, and the death of the holder are not uncommon. But if we say they account for nearly 20%, I guess the actual proportion should be discounted.
A bigger chance is that a large number of chips are being actively refrigerated by the owner. It's not that they won't sell, it's that the timing hasn't arrived; It's not that they've forgotten, it's that they're too lazy to move; It's not that they have no goal, but that the goal is still far away.
But regardless of the underlying reasons, the market result is only one:
The actual tradable BTC is much thinner than the circulating quantity on paper.
In such a tightening supply-side pool, even a slight ripple in demand can stir up significant waves. This is the most fundamental support for BTC's price elasticity.
So what these numbers really want to say isn't "how many coins have disappeared forever," but rather that the ammunition bears can call up is far less abundant than the panic narratives portray.
Scarcity isn't just an emotional slogan—it's a cold, on-chain fact.
Long-term funds remain steady, but short-term chips naturally dry up; The narrower the supply, the lower the threshold for price upwards.
Of course, this doesn't mean the market will rally tomorrow. But at least this metric gives me a layer of confidence in the long-term narrative.
The real hardcore is never a story, but a supply curve.
$SNDK
$ETH
#闪迪长期协议成焦点, the opening performance remains to be seen
#BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound?
#OKX预言家第二季正式上线 很多人等待山寨季，却忽略了一个事实：Meme可能已经成为Crypto市场最大的情绪指标。
而$DOGE ，就是这个指标里最特殊的存在。
为什么？
因为BTC反映机构情绪。
ETH反映链上金融需求。
SOL反映高风险交易需求。
而DOGE更像反映普通用户愿不愿意重新进入市场。
当DOGE开始活跃，通常意味着市场风险偏好正在提升。
因为买DOGE的人，很多时候不是为了研究技术路线。
他们买的是：
市场回来了。
大家又开始赚钱了。
情绪又起来了。
这就是Meme资产特殊的地方。
它不是传统意义上的价值投资。
它更像金融市场里的情绪温度计。
当然，温度计不能决定天气。
DOGE上涨不代表所有Crypto都会上涨。
Meme热潮也可能只是短期资金炒作。
所以真正聪明的做法，不是看到DOGE上涨就追。
而是理解它背后的信号。
如果BTC上涨，稳定币增加，SOL活跃，DOGE也开始放量。
这可能说明风险资金正在全面回来。
但如果只是DOGE单独暴涨，其他市场没有反应，那更多可能只是局部情绪。
DOGE最大的价值，也许不是成为某种支付工具。
而是告诉市场：
大家是不是又开始愿意冒险了。
#DOGE #Bitcoin #SOL #Crypto #Meme #欧易星球Currently, Panmian Bitcoin shows a structure of gradually rising lows over the four-hour period, but trading volume remains sluggish and rebound momentum is insufficient. Currently, 63,250 forms a short-term bull-bear divide; if it holds, the structure will turn bullish; if it encounters resistance, it will continue to test support. Liquidity is currently very low, with sell orders near 63,000 being especially resistant. After breaking through 63,500, follow up with Dotou. On the left side, you can wait for a pullback near 62,500 to test light positions. Ethereum's overall trend is clearly weaker than Bitcoin, with significant selling pressure near 1900. If it fails to break below the 1870-1880 range, Dodan can enter the market with a target near 1930. #闪迪长期协议成焦点, opening performance remains to be verified$BTC $ETH #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound?
#BTC沉睡供应创新高, scarcity is once again under scrutiny
The digital asset conference starting tonight is very likely to generate many trending topics over the next two days. Some talk about $BTC, some about regulation, and some discuss market structure. The market may first react to a single sentence, but the full context usually arrives a few minutes later.
The most familiar scenario in the trading circle: first get excited by the screenshot, then realize it's just a personal suggestion; First, treat "discussion" as "approval," then wait for official documents to correct it.
This time, let's do the opposite. For any policy announcement, first look for the original text, permissions, and implementation date. For papers without signatures, leave them blank for now.🔥The valuation paradigm in the storage industry is being restructured: Long-term agreements (LTA)/NBM are rewriting the cyclical pricing logic
In the past, storage was a strongly cyclical asset with valuation anchored to PB;
With the widespread adoption of long-term lock-in orders by cloud providers, profit volatility has been significantly smoothed, and the valuation system is gradually shifting to a PE growth framework.
Key points:
✅ Long-term contract volume lock + floor price protection weaken spot price shocks, improving profit visibility
✅ SanDisk's NBM long-term agreements cover over 1/3 of FY27 capacity, with potential to exceed 50% in the long term
✅ Financial realization: SanDisk's gross margin rebounded from 30% to 71.47%, completing a profit turnaround
Current valuation comparison
SanDisk SNDK: PE 21.39x
SK Hynix SKHY: PE 11.06x
⚠️Risk warning
The market has already priced in the valuation shift narrative; continuous monitoring of long-term agreement fulfillment risk is needed, and caution is advised for profit-taking after the realization of favorable market expectations.
#SNDK #SKHY #StorageChips #AIStorage #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 I believe SanDisk's current market value is severely overestimated, with the core risk lying in the questionable credibility of the AI storage narrative, compounded by controversies over technical integrity that are shaking market confidence. Although the company disclosed a $9.39 billion long-term agreement, the floating pricing clause in the agreement means revenue still follows market prices and does not truly lock in profits. What makes me even more cautious is that its flagship HBF technology was accused during the investor day of deliberately undervaluing competing HBM parameters and concealing write endurance defects; this selective comparison has sparked widespread skepticism in the tech community. From the financial data, an 84.6% gross margin is unprecedented in the storage industry, entirely driven by a 1298% year-over-year surge in data center business. Once Samsung and SK Hynix release new capacity, causing a supply-demand reversal, the gross margin retracement will be extremely severe. Compared to peers like Micron with a 15x PE, SanDisk's 32x forward PE premium is too high, and the DCF model even suggests a target price of only $372. I once bought storage stocks at the 2025 peak and personally experienced the halving losses brought by the cycle reversal. Now seeing SanDisk package its valuation as a "meal ticket for the next five years" makes me even more cautious—the real moat is the technological barrier, not just a contract. I recommend closely watching whether bit shipment volume in 2027 can replace price hikes as the main growth driver, and whether HBF technology can truly break HBM's monopoly after commercialization. Don't be swayed by short-term narratives; the lessons from cyclical stocks are always worth remembering. #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证 擦，波动率干到2022年熊市底部以来最低
上次这么安静，$BTC 从1.5万干到了12.6万。ADX跌到两年多最低，布林带收窄到快成一条线
André Dragosch说得直白——波动率处于历史区间低位，均值回归只会推高波动。横盘越久，方向出来那一下越狠。Glassnode也说了，这是多年来买入波动率最便宜的时期之一
但有人在悄悄干活
ETF上周合计净流入11亿美金，终结了2026年以来的净流出趋势
贝莱德一家就占了80%。8月3日到7日五天干了8.5亿美金，贝莱德吃了6.93亿
机构在买，散户在怕。巨鲸也在抢——自6月中旬以来，持有100枚以上BTC的钱包累计增持了5.4万枚BTC。鲸鱼在接，小鱼在跑
63,000的BTC，放在2022年波动率最低的时候——那时候买的人，现在赚了4倍
不是让你梭哈，但这个位置，值得多看两眼
63,000附近分批接，跌破60,000再加。等风来就行Nowadays, those chasing high and those who truly make money never focus on the same candlestick. Have you ever wondered why, every time in the middle of a bull market, people keep shouting "This time is different," only to find the tide and not even their underwear? In the past couple of days, I have thoroughly examined on-chain data and discovered an counterintuitive truth: what truly determines whether a project can weather bull and bear markets is not the frequency of candlestick movements, but four hard bones—the depth of capital accumulation, reasons users stay, whether developers are still coding, and whether the protocol itself is profitable. Let's start with a detail that's easy to overlook. Many people call ETH an "antique," but the stablecoin scale it carries on its chain has already reached $147 billion. What does that mean? It's like an invisible underground dollar clearinghouse, silently processing massive volumes of transactions every day. People can mock its gas fees, but no one can bypass its status in settlement. Now, let's look at the broader market. The total market supply of stablecoins has quietly surpassed 300 billion, and no matter how much the price fluctuates, the veins of the US dollar on this chain are only getting thicker. What does this indicate? Qian hasn't left; he's just looking for a more stable foothold. As for high-value public chains like SOL and SUI, no matter how attractive they look on paper, they're just a ticket to entry. What the market really asks is: how many real users and real contract revenue can you turn into speed? The on-chain volume manipulation trick can trick people in a bull market, but in a bear market, it can't even fool yourself. My judgment is that this stage is more like a mid-to-backcourt game in a bull market—it's not the time to blindly rush in. Long-short logic#SPCX Shareholding Structure Revealed, Harvard 13F Holds Heavy Positions
The latest institutional holding data has surfaced, showing top capital flocking to SpaceX. Harvard Asset Management has bet over half of its public portfolio on this stock, and NVIDIA has made a significant entry, joining giants like Google and BlackRock in holding positions. This clearly indicates capital's confidence in its long-term growth potential. Multiple institutions are not engaging in short-term speculation but are optimistic about the company's three main growth drivers: Starlink's continuous expansion of global communication services, providing stable cash flow; Starship's iterative cost reduction, supporting moon missions and commercial launch orders; combined with NVIDIA's synergistic layout in space computing power, unlocking new growth in the AI field. In the long term, lunar infrastructure will further broaden growth boundaries. $NVDA
Risks also objectively exist. After listing, original shares will gradually be unlocked, and the highly concentrated chip structure will face liquidity tests. If some early investors choose to exit, it will bring phased selling pressure.
In terms of market performance, $SPCX surged after listing and then entered a consolidation range. In the short term, institutional support prevents deep pullbacks, but there is obvious resistance at previous highs. If subsequent positive factors such as Starship test flights and computing power business implementation materialize, the stock price is expected to break upward out of the range; however, if volume expands during the unlocking phase but the price stagnates, it will likely trigger a round of valuation digestion. Previously, hesitation and observation during the stock's low range prevented positioning, but now with institutional cards clear, chasing at high levels is not advisable. Waiting for fundamental progress and the unlocking window's performance before taking action is a more prudent strategy. 1,778 BTC stolen due to the Coldcard vulnerability—the self-custody "security illusion" collapsed
Galaxy Research confirmed that a vulnerability in the Coldcard hardware wallet led to the theft of over 8,600 addresses, resulting in losses of 1,778.84 BTC (about $112.7 million). Galaxy has directly contacted 190 victims.
Biggest mystery: Among the 153 stolen addresses, there are still 132.95 BTC, and researchers have yet to reproduce the seeds behind these addresses. It cannot be ruled out that the attacker obtained undisclosed private device data.
Meanwhile, the TX cross-chain bridge was attacked on August 9, with attackers stealing nearly 200,000 XRP (about $200,000) through 94 payments within 97 minutes. The vulnerability originated from a relay error combined with XRP Ledger's DefaultRipple feature.
The hardware wallet vulnerability is rooted in the belief in "self-custody." The private key is yours, but the tool that generates the private key itself has vulnerabilities. This security crisis may accelerate the adoption of institutional-level custody solutions, rather than the self-awakening of retail investors.美国联邦监管，给特朗普家族的稳定币发了银行牌照。
OCC 8 月 14 日有条件批准 World Liberty Trust 的全国信托银行牌照。市值 40 亿美元的 USD1，发行和托管要逐步从 BitGo 挪进自家银行。
门槛不低：2000 万美元资本、内部审计负责人，18 个月开不了业，牌照作废。不许吸储，不许放贷。
参议员沃伦已经公开骂这是利益冲突。稳定币走进联邦银行体系，华盛顿的态度比市场预期快。我看，监管收编开始了。Macro Background: Positive factors are fading
US July CPI fell from 3.5% year-on-year to 3.4%, and retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% month-on-month, which should theoretically boost expectations for rate cuts. However, BTC's brief rise above 64,000 did not last, instead falling back to 63,000—positive macro data is no longer effective at stimulating risk appetite.
The core reason is that energy prices have recreated imported inflationary pressure. The IEA lowered its 2026 global oil demand forecast, and combined with supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude rose about 5.9% for the week to $88.52. The Fed is caught in a dilemma of "cooling growth but inflation still above target," with the 10-year Treasury yield remaining high at around 4.70%.
Additionally, the Fed's stance that it has no intention of cutting key interest rates in 2026 means macro liquidity is unlikely to shift to easing in the short term.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? $BTC longs 📈
Nice move back toward my entry, so I’ve de-risked half the position around $63.7K. This level is significant and may take some time to break cleanly.
Strong candle off the lows today, but there’s an interesting shift happening in open interest (OI).
OI built up throughout the day and is now starting to unwind. At the same time, some fresh longs are entering near the highs, keeping OI elevated.
$63.6K is an important intraday level, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some rejection or even a move back toward the lows before a genuine breakout develops.
So what’s my approach?
I’m not closing the entire trade and trying to re-enter, and I’m definitely not opening a short against my long just to hedge a few candles.
Instead:
➡️ De-risk half near resistance
➡️ Keep the remaining position
➡️ Look to add back near the lows if the setup returns
This allows me to gradually improve my entry while maintaining conviction—and without taking unnecessary risk.
Simple, disciplined, and based on what the market is showing right now. 🫡
$BTC #SandiskDealsInFocus #BTCVolumeDriesUp $BTC
Today's market update
The second probe for this weekend, which they said would be awaited on Friday... Only before the CME market opened in the early morning...
At the same time, the second probe area is also where the short positions were trapped on Friday's pin tip
You can see Figure 1
(Trapped short position = price returns to untrade and close position = support)
-----------
From OI (OI) (Figure 2)
The aggressive wave of bears last Friday has almost gone away...
The Asian session from weekend to Monday basically met expectations...
------------
Symmetry (Figure 3)
The weekend did not see a lower low than Friday, and this -4.57% drop aligns with the symmetrical expectations seen over the past month.
------------
View from the list (Figure 4)
Currently, it's still the same as Friday, restricted by contracts. The sell orders above are still listed above 63.7k. The sell orders below are still concentrated below 62.5k.
So just now, at 63.7, this is basically the previous low TP1:
Currently, spot orders below 62k are also very densely demanded for various grid listings.
Given the recent sluggish trading volume, it's hard to break the lower level unless something happens.
To be continued in the next part 📈 U.S. Markets & AI Trade Update
U.S. equities moved higher, with $SPX +0.2% and NDX +0.6%, as technology stocks led the advance.
The AI theme remained strong after Anthropic’s Q2 revenue reportedly surged 14× year over year, reinforcing expectations that AI-related spending remains resilient.
Meanwhile:
• 📉 10-year Treasury yields and oil prices edged lower
• ₿ Bitcoin, gold, and silver moved higher
• 📊 September Fed hike odds fell to around 30%, following last week’s weak retail-sales data
• 💾 Korean chipmakers and U.S. tech-hardware stocks gained in pre-market trading on strong AI demand
S&P 2026 EPS estimates have climbed to around $362, representing roughly 30% YoY growth. At current valuations, that implies a forward P/E near 21.6×, roughly matching the 10-year Treasury yield—a valuation relationship not seen since early 2024 and, before that, the 2000 internet bubble.
Despite the strength in AI and tech, I remain cautious on $TSLA .
Forward earnings estimates continue to weaken, competition in autonomous driving is intensifying, and the valuation remains elevated.
Strong AI demand is supporting the broader tech trade, but high expectations leave little room for disappointment. 👀
NFA. DYOR.
#SandiskDealsInFocus #BTCVolumeDriesUp Global M2 surpassed 135 trillion, a historic high, yet $BTC is still hovering at 63,000
According to historical patterns, BTC should be around $180,000 now. So what happened? It dropped by nearly half. Starting from Q4 2025, M2 rose 12%, BTC fell 12%, completely reversing the trend. The correlation over 8 years was completely broken
Who is really causing trouble?
The dollar is too strong. M2 is a slow variable—expansion takes months to pass on to risk assets. A strong dollar is a fast variable—it can drain liquidity in just a few days. The dollar index rose 2.35% in a single month, while M2 only rose 1.25%, with the pace of tightening being four times that of expansion. If the dollar rises for one day, M2 rises for a whole month and wastes it
AI is grabbing money, US stocks are celebrating, BTC is being drained. All funds are rushing into AI and tech stocks, while the crypto world is left sidelined.
Some people are running quantitative panic.
The founder of Capriole Investments said this is the first time BTC has been decoupled from M2—because by 2025, the risk of quantum computing cracking BTC crypto has become a "non-zero probability." The market has started pricing in this risk
But Fidelity spoke the truth—with the start of the global monetary easing cycle and the end of the Fed's QT, M2 growth will continue to rise in 2026, which is positive for BTC. Historically, every divergence has been resolved by price increases. Buy near the 200-week moving average, median return 113% after one year
To put it bluntly, the M2 model isn't dead; it's just a short-term failure🚨 Ethereum’s July capital inflow ratio was 9.4× Bitcoin’s. So why are institutions suddenly buying $ETH ?
According to data cited by DWF Labs, Ethereum spot ETFs have significantly outperformed Bitcoin on a Flow-to-AUM basis since June.
The contrast is striking:
📉 June:
$ETH ETF net outflows = 4.65% of AUM
$BTC ETF net outflows = 8.09%
📈 July:
$ETH ETF net inflows = 3.19% of AUM
$BTC ETF net inflows = 0.34%
That means Ethereum’s relative capital attraction was roughly 9.4× Bitcoin’s in July.
So what changed?
One possible explanation is valuation + capital rotation.
Bitcoin ETFs have attracted significant hedge-fund basis-trading capital. As the futures/spot spread compressed toward much thinner returns, some of that fast-moving capital naturally became less aggressive.
Ethereum, meanwhile, spent months underperforming, with the ETH/BTC ratio pushed toward historically depressed levels. That weakness may have created a more attractive entry point for longer-term allocators.
There’s another important shift: the type of capital entering ETH may be changing.
Institutional investors are increasingly looking beyond simple price appreciation toward Ethereum’s broader economic model—staking yield, network activity, DeFi, tokenization, and Layer-2 settlement.
That could gradually change the narrative from:
“Ethereum is outdated.”
to:
“Ethereum may be undervalued relative to its long-term utility.”
Of course, one month of relative flows doesn’t guarantee a sustained trend. The real question is whether this capital rotation continues.
If institutions keep favoring ETH over BTC on a relative basis, could $ETH finally begin a meaningful ETH/BTC recovery in the second half of the year? 👀
Or is this simply a temporary valuation catch-up?
DYOR. NFA.
#SandiskDealsInFocus #BTCVolumeDriesUp #BTC沉睡供应创新高, scarcity draws attention again. #加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced?
When the market was flattening, a data point on the chain quietly broke a record.
The amount of Bitcoin mined and lying in wallets for over a certain year has reached a historic high again.
What does that mean?
More and more big profits are locked in cold wallets, sitting for years without touching.
It's not the kind of trading that keeps flipping around; it's actually withdrawing from the circulating market.
My first reaction was the opposite—if supply is low, shouldn't prices go up?
But today, the stock was still hovering around 63,000, with an increase of at least one point.
Why? I took a look.
The key is not stock, but increment.
The rising dormant supply indicates more stockpilers and few sellers, so selling pressure has indeed eased.
But on the other hand, ETFs have been seeing net outflows these days, stablecoins are moving out, and incremental funds haven't flowed in.
One was reluctant to sell, the other was hesitant; both groups were doing their own things, and the price was stuck in mid-air.
The data is real, but it doesn't point to immediate price drops—it's a signal to stockpile grain.
The safest way to move these tickets is to wait for some external variable to ignite the fire.
My view is that looking at it doesn't mean you should buy it; scarcity is the foundation, and you need fresh water to get started.
Take a light position at the spot price, wait for the signal, don't rush to buy in.
$BTC $ETH #沉睡供应 #加密估值Many traders like to focus on ETF net inflow data, thinking that institutions are making a big move when they see inflows. Here, it's important to avoid this misconception.
Many ETF inflows are not long-term allocation funds, but rather internal institutional adjustments and arbitrage funds. These funds have no long-term holding plans and are very frequent in and out in the short term.
Distinguishing the funding styles of BTC and ETH ETFs:
BTC ETFs offer more retirement and allocation funds, with very restrained operations, buying in batches on pullbacks and not chasing big rallies;
ETH ETFs are mainly for short-term trading capital and have stronger speculative attributes. If the market weakens, redemption speeds are much faster than BTC.
Everyone must remember one key point: just because you have money to buy an ETF doesn't mean the price will definitely rise.
If selling pressure in the spot market surges simultaneously, ETF buying will be directly offset, resulting in capital inflow and a stagnant market.
Here's a simple way to distinguish genuine and fake increments:
Don't look at single-day pulse inflows; focus on tracking whether you can maintain stable net inflows for several consecutive days. A large inflow in just one day has very low reference value. #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? The Fed kept interest rates in the 3.50–3.75% range at its July meeting. The market is now specifically awaiting the FOMC minutes on August 19 and then the Jackson Hole on August 27. But there is a rather interesting problem: AI can both help increase productivity and cause inflation. Huge investment in AI is dragging on demand: GPUs, power servers, data centers, building materials, components Some analysts estimate that AI could contribute about 0.4 percentage points to US inflation in 2026. Crypto impact: 🔴 If AI makes the economy hotter than expectedSNDK's surge last week was the result of investors' daily exceeding expectations + AI storage narrative + market FOMO sentiment resonance. The biggest contradiction at today's opening was: long-term institutions repricing value versus massive short-term profit-taking.
Most likely path: Opens high before the open, briefly surges at the open, then enters intense volatility, intensifying bull-bear tug-of-war. If the opening volume increases and the market cannot hold a high level, first be cautious of a pullback; Only when the sector is strong and selling pressure is effectively supported will the short squeeze continue $SNDK 102天了 晕😵💫
Coinbase的$BTC 比币安还便宜，美国人一直打折卖，没停过
Coinbase Premium指数连续102天为负，创历史最长纪录。上一轮最长才40天，去年1011崩盘也就30天。5月19日转负以来，BTC从82K掉到63K，30%没了
这个指标就是看美国人买不买，正数代表抢，负数代表砸。现在-0.10，深陷负值区间。分析师说得直白：“溢价不转正，BTC难有高动量上升。”102天里，比特币在Coinbase上一直比全球均价便宜
为什么美国人不买？
机构在跑，ETF获批以来Coinbase一直是机构通道，溢价为负说明卖盘压倒买盘
上周BTC现货ETF净流出3.9亿，之前连续8天净流入的势头直接断了。CLARITY法案一推再推，监管不确定性压着，机构不敢进场
但另一边，巨鲸在拼命接——自6月中旬以来，持有100枚以上BTC的鲸鱼钱包累计增持了5.4万枚BTC。ETF首周也吸了8.5亿，贝莱德一家吃了6.94亿。美国人卖，全球接
102天已经创了历史纪录
史上最长负溢价之后，往往离反转不远了62,500-63,000接一点，跌破60,000再加$SKHY $ETH $SNDK #今天海力士跑的也不赖，美股都还没开盘就蹭蹭往上涨！！！
在172.7附近，贴着24小时高点173.8在跑，看K线确实强——均线踩在脚下，最后一根4小时直接从169.5拉到173.3，一根大阳线把位置顶回高位。
但问题还是那个老问题：燃料。费率趴在地板上，最近8次采样没有一次转正，等于这波拉升没人付多头溢价，不是杠杆堆出来的。主动成交那边更直接，买单占比不到四成，卖方一直在砸，只是暂时没砸穿。
再看大户，鲸鱼仓位看多侧不到四成，还压着空头那边，近7小时在往多头挪，但挪得不坚决。现货大单这块也是空的，没看到真金白银进场。
我的推测：
短线强是真的，但还要看后面的资金能不能跟上，目前靠的是存量盘和情绪在支撑，还是等回踩再入保险点，自己已经被套了☹️☹️
#闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证