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First, the verdict: BTC vs ETH earning ability comparison, verdict $BTC slightly better
In this 7-day PK, $BTC slightly wins: returns +1.04% vs +0.71%, drawdown 0.9% vs 1.1%, Sharpe 2.79 vs 2.27. $BTC earns more, loses less, and after risk adjustment still outperforms $ETH.
But don't miss a detail: $ETH today had a net inflow of OI +119 million, while $BTC actually saw an outflow of 113 million. Smart money is moving towards $ETH. Short-term earning ability favors $BTC, but the capital undercurrent is $ETH's game—this wave is like a short drama where the villain pretends to be dead first, and the protagonist makes a comeback at the end, so don't rush to take sides.
Comparing returns and drawdowns
Normalized curves: from 8/12 to 8/16 both brothers were flat (lowest $BTC 99.1, $ETH 99.8), on 8/17 both took off ($BTC highest 105.7, $ETH 105.8), on 8/18 both fell back. Closing prices $BTC 101.04, $ETH 100.71.
Returns $BTC +1.04% > $ETH +0.71%; max drawdown $BTC 0.9% < $ETH 1.1%. Gains more than you, falls less than you, this round $BTC is the favored child.Do you know why, over the past decade or so, various tokens have been making their debut, but only Bitcoin remains unmoved, firmly occupying half of the entire crypto market's market capitalization? Because Bitcoin does only one thing: ultimate security and decentralization. It sacrifices efficiency and fully hands itself over to the community, gaining extreme censorship resistance. Therefore, only it can achieve absolutely trustworthy and verifiable peer-to-peer decentralized value transfer. Everything other tokens do has competitors who have to sacrifice part of their decentralization to adapt to the harsher market competition. Because in market competition, you need an efficient decision-making system and rapid iteration, or else you'll be overtaken by competitors—this is a natural imbalance. Bitcoin can be slow, so it can sacrifice efficiency and choose ultimate security and decentralization, making the system's value infinitely high; And all other tokens are not allowed to be slow—slow means dead—so they have to run on another track where "running even a little slower means people will abandon you." I know many people wonder, why can't others replicate a Bitcoin? Gold may not be replicable, but why can't Bitcoin's mechanism be made exactly the same? For example, is it really that hard to replicate a celebrity like Musk and Jensen Huang, who is widely supported? My question is, why hasn't there been another WeChat account after more than ten years? It's not just about first-mover advantage; it also involves countless economic systems, ecosystems, and interests tied to it. The simplest is to get the U.S. government to invest hundreds of thousands of coins#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Long-term yields have exploded again, 30-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007. Just saw the data: the 30-year Treasury yield once surged to 5.29%-5.32%, the highest level since 2007, and the 10-year yield also hovered around 4.72%. Debt scales are growing, long-term bond supply pressure persists, inflation stickiness persists, and with multiple countries reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and AI financing rushing to attract funds, long-term interest rates have been pushed up all the way. Japan is also selling its national debt, indicating this is not just the U.S. alone. When financing costs rise, there will be a transmission to stocks, gold, and the crypto markets. Gold $XAUT is under significant short-term pressure, while BTC is holding up quite well. If long-term interest rates continue to fluctuate at high levels, do people prefer gold as a safe haven, or will BTC continue to serve as "digital gold" to hedge against volatility? Final summary 1. Opportunity cost rises: The risk-free yield on US Treasuries has risen above 5%, allowing Treasuries to outperform inflation. Bitcoin itself does not generate interest, so the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin increases significantly, and funds tend to flow into government bonds. 2. Rising real yields: The real yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries reached 2.41%, down from 1.77% two years ago. The rise in real yields has strengthened pressure on interest-free risk assets. 3. Asset performance divergence: Over the past year, Bitcoin fell 46%, while gold rose 32%. Funds have diverged, with some safe-haven funds choosing gold over Bitcoin. 4. Impact on BTC: The higher the US Treasury yield, the heavier the pressure on Bitcoin; High returnsMi'er, can your stock curse be broken?
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
The market expects revenue to be about ¥111 billion to ¥127.1 billion. Whether it can hold above ¥100 billion is not very important; what matters is whether the automotive segment can withstand the pressure.
Although monthly deliveries exceeded 30,000 consecutively in Q2, deliveries do not equal improved profitability. The main focus is whether the automotive gross margin can stabilize, whether operating losses can narrow, and whether the annual target of 550,000 vehicles can be achieved.
In the smartphone industry, Q1 saw a year-on-year decline of 19.2%, but the average selling price rose to ¥1,310, a record high. In Q2, rather than focusing on shipment volume, it is better to see if premiumization can continue to support ASP and gross margin.
AIoT and internet services are Xiaomi’s profit ballast. If IoT gross margin and internet advertising revenue continue to remain resilient, they can buffer the pressure from rising smartphone costs and automotive investments.
The most likely combination in the earnings report is: revenue recovery, but profits still under pressure.
Xiaomi has never lacked impressive data in the past. The real "stock curse" lies in the market often trading growth in advance, then after the earnings report lands, instead questioning profits and guidance.Peter Schiff is once again calling for Bitcoin to drop, but this time he himself says he's "confused"
Peter Schiff's statement this time is rare—he directly says he is confused by Bitcoin not dropping recently.
A person who has been calling Bitcoin a top/zero for over a decade admits to being "confused," which is more worth pondering than his $65,000 resistance level.
His logic is: $65,000 is the key level; breaking above it leaves limited upside, breaking below it is the real downside risk, and the current rebound is exactly the window for long-term holders to sell.
It sounds like technical analysis, but essentially it's narrative maintenance. Schiff's base is gold believers; the less Bitcoin falls, the more the term "digital gold" holds up, and he needs a reason to tell his audience: don't rush, this is just a selling point, not that I'm wrong.
To put it plainly, what he fears is never Bitcoin dropping, but Bitcoin not following his script.
Would you rather believe someone who has been bearish for ten years is right this time, or think this is just another narrative being chased by reality?
#Bitcoin #PeterSchiff #BTC #Cryptocurrency #Gold 【Do you also feel that this round of rebound is a bit "hollow"?】
BTC has returned above $64,000, and the second week of August has passed just like that. It bounced back from around the low of 62,300, a nearly 2,000-point recovery, which on the surface looks like the bulls are holding. But if you only look at the price, it's easy to be misled by this market— the real question is not whether BTC can hold above 64,000, but who is buying and who is not.
Last week, the three major US stock indices all hit record highs, with the S&P 500 reaching 7,816 intraday. But if we look closely at ETF capital flows, we find a divergence: from Monday to Wednesday last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a combined net outflow of $389.7 million. BlackRock's IBIT even recorded zero inflows for two consecutive days. The market is rising, but institutions are not buying along. What does this volume-price divergence mean? It means the current price recovery is more driven by short covering and retail sentiment rather than large-scale new capital inflows.
Why is this happening?
The core answer lies in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively blockaded, with the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps publicly stating that the US is no longer allowed to enter the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz. After the attack on an Abu Dhabi National Oil Company tanker last week, Brent crude broke through the $90 mark, closing at $90.87, and WTI surpassed $86. Geopolitical risk premiums continue to expand.
If you watch BTC's candlesticks daily, you might think BTC is moving on its own; but if you zoom out, you'll see that what really drives the market is every jump in oil prices.
Another signal worth noting: on August 20, the White House will hold a crypto executive meeting. Trump will attend, and the CFTC chairman and SEC chairman have confirmed their participation. This is the first crypto industry meeting at the White House level since Trump took office. Market expectations focus on two directions: clarification of regulatory frameworks and stablecoin legislation. If the meeting delivers substantial positive news, BTC could see a real breakout window. But managing expectations is a double-edged sword—the hype before the news has already priced in much of it, and if the meeting only results in verbal commitments, it could instead become a catalyst for a sell-the-news reaction.
Currently, the 63,500-64,000 range is a support zone, with 65,000 as a psychological resistance level. AIX's strategy is now in a "waiting for confirmation" state. The 63,000-65,000 range is consolidating with no clear direction; the AI system will not act at this point. It will wait for a break above 65,000 with a pullback confirmation, or a drop below 63,000 followed by a volume surge and a stop-fall signal to trigger trading instructions. Some money shouldn't be made, and some risks shouldn't be taken. Before direction is confirmed, controlling your actions is more important than anything else. 市场出现反弹，并不代表资金已经从 $BTC 大规模流向山寨币。真正值得观察的，是 $ETH 能否在接下来跑赢 $BTC，同时伴随成交量明显放大。 目前 $BTC 约为 $64.5K，$ETH 回到 $1.91K 附近。近期数据显示，ETH 相对 BTC 的表现正在改善，ETH/BTC 一度触及 0.0296，创近期较强水平。与此同时，ETH 现货 ETF 近期保持连续资金流入，7 月 ETH ETF 吸引的资金甚至超过 BTC ETF。 所以，别只盯着 ETH/USD。 🔥 ETH/BTC + 成交量 + ETF资金流，可能才是判断下一阶段资金轮动的关键组合。 如果 ETH/BTC 持续走强，并且 ETH 成交量同步放大，这可能意味着市场正在从“BTC 主导”逐步转向“大盘山寨轮动”。 现在还不是盲目追涨的时候——先看资金流向，再看价格突破。 👀📊 #ETH #BTC #Crypto #Ethereum #CapitalRotationETH Data Part 2: Breakdown of Chip Structure
ETH's URPD shows that the chip bar at $2,700-2,800 is particularly high, with the three bars totaling around 13 million coins, accounting for over 10% of the circulating supply.
Moreover, this batch of chips is underwater by 40% but has barely moved.
It should be noted that ETH's URPD mechanism is based on an account model, and Glassnode calculates the weighted average cost by the total balance of each entity.
For example, in February, BitMine held 4.32 million coins with an average cost of about $3,100; by August, it increased holdings by 1.48 million coins, bought roughly between $1,500 and $2,200; the combined weighted average cost is around $2,700.
The scale of holdings, cost position, and migration direction all align.
This indicates that the main body of this chip bar can basically be identified as BitMine; of course, there may be other clustered entities mixed in.
There are two more reasons:
1. It is a dense trading area from January this year;
2. On-chain staking;
Combined with ETH's Herfindahl index reaching a historic high, it means some large accounts monopolize supply, leading to increasing chip concentration.
This is most likely related to BitMine, ETFs, and on-chain staking.
The direct benefit is that when the price falls, a large amount of liquidity is locked up and will no longer convert into selling pressure.
Conversely, when ETH's price returns to this range, whether these chips remain firm will depend on ETH's narrative and consensus at that time. BTC chip concentration has shifted from bearish concentration to a more dispersed bullish stance, with large whales significantly closing short positions. The liquidation map shows a large concentration of liquidation zones below 63.8k and above 68k. ETH short positions are concentrated, with large whales closing long positions.
Tokens showing strong bearish momentum within 8 hours today include GALA, ONG, and SUI. Weak tokens selected through the filter include AIOT, PYTH, and BLUR, which can be continuously monitored!Fundamental Research Report $RNDR / Render Token (AI/Computing Power) $1.27 (24h -0.30%)
Summary: Render Token ($RNDR) overall score 34/100, rating mainly relies on narrative. Breaking down into three layers: company team resources are tight, protocol network usage evidence is weak, token value transmission still needs observation.
Render Token (token $RNDR), AI/computing power sector. Focuses on GPU rendering/AI computing power. Competitors include AKT, TAO. Traditional computing power rental giants are AWS, CoreWeave, charging by GPU hour; A100 monthly rent is $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high threshold. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding; suppliers do not require centralized approval, turning idle GPUs into available supply. Customer unit price $50-$500/month, settlement in USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: main evidence from announcements, no verifiable usage yet. Latest version not found, 0 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $17.73M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income not disclosed, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 0 valid commits in 90 days, active contributors not found, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration via API/SDK evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo wall are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 533,532,274.5626915, circulating 518,772,101.28269154 (97.2%), FDV $676.02M, next unlock undisclosed (percentage of circulating undisclosed), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Render Token $657.31M, AKT undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. FDV: Render Token $676.02M, AKT undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Annual revenue: Render Token undisclosed, AKT undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Render Token undisclosed, AKT undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing parts supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $657.31M, FDV $676.02M, P/S N/A (revenue missing, valuation anchor invalid), FDV divided by revenue N/A. Pessimistic view: $657.31M discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view: revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final judgment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 34/100). Token value transmission path unclear, only governance incentives. Circulating market cap relatively reasonable or low compared to fundamentals, FDV close to MC, no major unlocks, sell pressure controllable. Potential risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next to watch: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Information source is public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires re-evaluation.
That's all, judge for yourself.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit#30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
The leader has something to say
The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to the 5.29% to 5.32% range, the highest since 2007. The 10-year yield also reached around 4.72%.
Behind the new high in long-term bond yields, several forces are pushing simultaneously.
US debt is approaching 40 trillion, so the pressure to issue long-term bonds is already huge. The UK, Japan, and China all reduced their US Treasury holdings in June, and fewer buyers are stepping in. The AI financing boom is also competing for funds: AMD issued 4.75 billion in bonds, Intel issued stock, Nvidia launched a 500 billion financing platform, and investment-grade bond supply has directly increased. Japanese government bonds are also being sold off, indicating this is a structural pressure, not a problem unique to the US.
With long-term rates staying high, financing costs for governments, companies, and households all rise accordingly. For risk assets, valuation pressure is very real.
Gold holding steady above 4430 reflects this logic. The higher the debt, the greater the long-term pressure on the US dollar's credit, and the stronger gold's appeal.
BTC is still sideways, no rush to enter. SPCX base positions continue the strategy, with profits from 110 to above 150 being substantial. Wait until the direction is clear before acting.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck. $OKB $BTC $ETH $OPN current price $0.05744, 24h increase +10.44%, 24h trading volume 4.3066 million USDT, volume surge driving a strong bullish rally.
Indicator breakdown
• Bollinger Bands: Current price breaks above the upper Bollinger band at 0.05678, middle band at 0.05305, lower band at 0.04932, price significantly deviates above the upper Bollinger band, indicating extreme short-term strength.
• SAR: SAR point at 0.05313, price running above SAR, maintaining a strong bullish trend.
• RSI6: 92.90, indicator has entered a severe overbought zone, correction risk continues to accumulate.
• KDJ: K:86.01, D:77.56, J:102.92, all in high overbought territory, technical pullback demand may occur at any time.
Market conclusion and operational reference
Resistance above: Intraday high 0.05798;
Support below: Bollinger upper band 0.05678, Bollinger middle band 0.05305.
No position: Strictly avoid chasing highs, the risk-reward ratio is poor when chasing gains in an overbought state, wait for a pullback to digest indicators before reassessing;
Holding position: Use the Bollinger upper band as short-term defense, once it is effectively broken down, it is recommended to take profits in batches.
⚠️The above is only a technical analysis and does not constitute investment advice
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 🚨 【Storage Takes Another Big Plunge! Is the Super Bull Market Over, or Just a High-Level Shakeout?】
Today’s big plunge in the storage sector left many investors who chased the highs completely stunned. The crazier the rise before, the harsher the drop today.
Many people asked me: “Has the storage cycle completely peaked?”
Don’t rush to conclusions. Combining the latest spot market and original manufacturer news, I break down today’s core logic behind the plunge into three blunt points, so everyone can get a clear picture:
1️⃣ Spot market “inversion” triggers exit signals, downstream end customers completely reject high prices!
This is the most direct catalyst for today’s sell-off.
Previously, storage manufacturers pushed contract prices too high by force, squeezing the profits of consumer electronics makers like mobile phones and PCs.
Latest spot channel news: prices for some low-capacity embedded storage (e.g., 64GB eMMC) have fallen below the manufacturers’ contract prices, causing a severe “price inversion.”
The current situation: end mobile phone makers (OPPO, vivo, etc.) have collectively started rejecting third-quarter price hikes, even resorting to downgrading specs and cutting orders to resist. Downstream buyers can’t afford it, channels have to start discounting to clear inventory. This directly bursts the illusion of “all-out, mindless price hikes.”
2️⃣ Earnings “good news fully priced in,” profit-taking concentrated at high levels!
The storage sector was previously hyped as the absolute core of the “AI computing power chain,” driving valuations sky-high.
But with recent earnings reports from industry giants like SanDisk (down 14%), Western Digital (down over 19%), and Micron, everyone realized: although earnings look good, guidance for the new quarter clearly slowed.
High-level clustered funds fear the “growth inflection point” most. Now DRAM contract price increases have shrunk from the first quarter’s surge to just teens of percent in the third quarter. Institutions see weakening momentum and immediately take profits on the “earnings release,” triggering a classic case of good news fully priced in and a high-level long squeeze.
3️⃣ Cloud AI starts “cost-cutting,” demand squeezed by technical algorithms!
Previously, the market traded on the logic of “AI driving unlimited storage demand,” but two waves of cold water have come from the supply chain recently:
Hardware downgrades: giants like NVIDIA have reduced non-core memory configurations in some new server architectures to control costs and power consumption.
Software compression: various compression algorithms (like Google’s recent TurboQuant) have significantly reduced memory usage during large model inference.
The market suddenly realizes—AI giants are also cost-conscious; general-purpose storage cannot enjoy unlimited AI premiums.
💬
This plunge is essentially a reshuffle driven by “end-user high-price pain + high valuation” sentiment and demand squeezing.
Structural differentiation: high-end HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and DDR5 remain in short supply, but traditional general-purpose DRAM and NAND flash have reached critical points of capacity and cost pressure.
What’s the outlook? In the short term, chip structure loosens; don’t blindly bottom-fish in high-valuation miscellaneous stocks. Wait for this round of profit-taking to finish and for end consumer electronics costs to be absorbed. Then the market will refocus on the true mainline logic of actual HBM shipments.
👉 Did your storage stocks get caught in the crossfire today? Feel free to leave comments and discuss!The quietest move on the chessboard often hides the most ruthless killing intent. When Wyoming gave the green light to N3XT's "instant cross-border payment" pawn, those who truly understand chess would not applaud this move slowly—they know this is a passed pawn that breaks through all blockades and heads straight for promotion on the back rank.
The person who pushed this move once witnessed the crown fall on Signature Bank's chessboard. That was his sacrificed piece and his lesson. Now, armed with endgame experience, he restarts the game, not rushing to launch a fierce attack on the queenside, but gradually maneuvering the rook onto the open file. What is a state-level license? It is the right to castle. Without this move, any cross-border capital flow can only survive on narrow sidelines; with this move, the entire pawn chain on the queenside comes alive. Wyoming is not the throne of traditional financial centers; it is more like the edge square of the chessboard—away from the noise, but just right for the buildup before a pawn promotion.
In our industry, we never judge a trade by a single move. Instant cross-border payment sounds like a "checkmate in one," but in essence, it is a pawn chain advance that changes the shape of the board. The old era of cross-border clearing was like a dead piece locked in the middle game: three correspondent banks, five transit accounts, two days of waiting—each step giving the opponent the initiative. Now? A diagonal line pierces the border, and every settlement is a subtle pin. The compliance approval you see is just the referee raising the flag—the real importance is that this pawn has already reached the square before promotion.
As for the US stock XPLTR, its current position is interesting—like a knight stuck at the central intersection. It doesn't show off, but all diagonals pass beneath its feet. Every time the payment infrastructure expands by one square, this knight controls one more square; when the pawn structure of cross-border payments completes its reorganization, its value is not the points of this move but the control of the entire long diagonal. While the market is still calculating how many seconds faster the first-day arrival is, the masters are already counting twenty moves ahead, seeing whose bishop faces whose king.
You might ask, the license scope hasn't been fully disclosed yet, and the coverage area is still a dotted line—isn't that also an unknown? Indeed, there is a most fascinating feint in chess—it doesn't touch any piece but forces the opponent to start adjusting their pawn structure. The essence of N3XT's move lies here: with a state-level approval, it makes all cross-border payment players start recalculating their queenside defenses. Those originally impregnable backline fortresses now leak a cold Wyoming wind.
In the game where Signature Bank fell, the traditional financial forces' castling failed. Today, this former chairman clearly hasn't forgotten the lesson: he first dragged the rook out of the ruins, then steadily advanced the pawn along the narrow path of state-level licensing. This is a standard sacrifice to seize the line, trading loss for initiative. All grandmasters understand that the true victory of a chess game is never about how many pieces you capture, but about who first touches the back rank with a pawn in the final endgame tower.
Now, Wyoming's pieces have been placed, and the clang of metal echoes along the open file. The game has not yet reached the middlegame, but the footsteps of the general are already approaching from the sidelines.
#ImpactCycle·Monthly #GlobalRegulation·PaymentLicense #Wyoming·CrossBorderPayment🚨 ETF Money Is Back in the Conversation — But Traders Should Stay Sharp One of the biggest stories in crypto isn't happening on a meme-coin chart. It's happening through institutional flows. Recent reports showed U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted around $1.1 billion in combined inflows during one week, highlighting that institutional demand remains an important part of the market. But here's the part traders shouldn't ignore: ETF inflows don't guarantee an immediate price rally. Bit8.18 Gold Midday Review
Expectations of interest rate cuts combined with ongoing geopolitical risk aversion continue to support gold prices. No major economic data is scheduled for release today, so the market will mainly rely on technical movements. In the evening, with concentrated capital entering during the US session, volatility will significantly increase.
At this stage, earlier positive factors have been largely digested, and selling pressure above is gradually increasing. High-level oscillations and shakeouts are very frequent, so be sure not to blindly chase the rally.
The daily chart shows an overbought condition at a high level, with short-term upward momentum weakening and a need for a phase pullback. However, the medium- to long-term bullish trend remains intact.
Key resistance above: 4440-4450
Short-term support range: 4380-4385
Strong support range: 4340-4350
As long as key support holds, the overall pattern remains a consolidation with a bullish bias. Afternoon tug-of-war between bulls and bears will intensify, so be vigilant against spike-style shakeouts. $XAU $BTC #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单
In-depth Analysis of the Latest Bitcoin Market in 2026: Correction Is Not the End, Institutional Pricing Era Normalization
Entering the second half of 2026, Bitcoin has completely bid farewell to the early years' speculative nature of wild price swings, officially entering a mature asset phase driven by macro factors, dominated by institutions, and structured by cycles. This round of correction is not the start of a bear market but a rational valuation adjustment after new highs, with the market's underlying logic fully rewritten.
1. Current Market Status: Deep Retracement Entering Range Consolidation, Resilience Far Exceeding Historical Cycles
Since Bitcoin reached a historical high of about $126,000 in 2025, it has been continuously correcting, with a maximum retracement of over 50% within 2026, temporarily dipping to around $57,800.
As of mid-August 2026, BTC has stabilized, oscillating within a central range of $60,000–$64,000.
The biggest difference from previous crypto winters:
Although this round's decline was severe, market resilience is extremely strong. Compared to early bear markets with over 80% deep crashes, this correction is a cyclical adjustment of a mature market, with liquidity not dried up, institutional holdings stable at the base, and strong spot market support.
2. Three Core Downward Logic Points of This Correction
1. Global Macro Liquidity Tightening (Most Core Factor)
In 2026, overseas inflation stickiness persists, market rate cut expectations are repeatedly postponed, and the high-interest environment of U.S. Treasury bonds continues.
High interest rates directly suppress risk asset valuations: Bitcoin, as a high-beta growth asset, is extremely sensitive to U.S. dollar liquidity and real interest rates, becoming the core driver of this valuation correction.
2. Phase Outflow of ETF Funds, Cooling Sentiment
In the first half of the year, the spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a phase of profit-taking after a large net inflow, with short-term fund outflows suppressing rebound strength.
However, it is worth noting: the outflow is a phase of portfolio adjustment, not institutional withdrawal; long-term allocation funds have not loosened their base positions.
3. Market Style Shift, Phase Diversion of Funds to AI Sector
In 2026, global capital market hotspots focus on the AI industry, with retail and short-term funds significantly diverted, weakening the short-term profitability effect in the crypto market and further amplifying the consolidation pattern. The current high macro interest rates and the high-level oscillation of the US stock market suppress overall risk assets. $SUI demonstrates institutional expectation differences relying on compliant tokenization tools and a new lending framework. The market is responsive to short-term news with agility, but the lack of sustained large capital chasing the rally leads to continued divergence in chip distribution. If US stock risk appetite warms up and US Treasury yields decline, the actual implementation of on-chain ecological data will boost valuation elasticity. If on-chain capital inflow stagnates and prices break below key support zones, this structural bullish logic will fail.
#SafePal订单泄露，隐私保护待完善 #BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注Many people lose money not because they misjudge the direction, but because they adopt the wrong mindset and operate on the wrong cycle. Using an intraday rhythm to trade trend positions, they want to exit as soon as there is a small rise; using trend position sizing for intraday trades, they hold on through small dips and get stuck. Today, I will clearly break down these four systems; the rules are different, and the mindset is completely different. 【Intraday Trading】#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 $BTC Holding period is from a few minutes to a few hours, positions must be closed the same day, never held overnight. The fastest market-watching rhythm, focusing on 1-minute to 15-minute charts, relying on order book, volume, and intraday structure to find entry points. Entry only recognizes definite signals: breaking key minute-level support/resistance, volume breakout, opening range breakout; if the signal fails, immediately abandon, no waiting or watching. Stop loss is stop loss, no "wait a bit longer" to hold on; profit targets are set close, prioritizing locking in gains over chasing big swings. Single trade risk is controlled at 0.5%-1% of total capital; because of high trading frequency, small risk exposures accumulate. This method demands the highest psychological quality, requiring strong discipline and quick stop-loss ability; emotional traders prone to revenge buying are not recommended to try this if their mindset is not yet hardened. 【Short-term Trading】$SNDK Holding period is from several hours to several days, slightly more relaxed than intraday but still a fast in-and-out logic. Market-watching cycles are 15-minute to 4-hour charts, also considering some key daily levels. Entry combines technical patterns (breakout from consolidation platforms, pullback to moving average for stabilization) plus news catalysts, adding a layer of fundamental judgment compared to intraday. Exit allows some price flexibility.U.S. stocks have sharply corrected, South Korean stocks opened high but fell, how are all the bulls doing? The current situation is very clear: U.S. stocks have already moved out of the right-side trading window. SanDisk's performance has fully explained everything. Next, focus on the extent of the pullback. Overall, a head and shoulders pattern cannot be ruled out. For now, we are seeing a short-term rebound. Everyone should be ready to sell high and buy low, and enjoy the profits! #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 $SNDK $SKHY #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
Brothers, now even Xiaomi is being brought into the crypto space? Does Lei Jun know? 😂
I never expected that before we could only play with US stocks on-chain, now even Hong Kong stocks are starting to move on-chain. First there was Kimi, Pop Mart, and now it's Xiaomi's turn.
Today $XIAOMI opened with a drop of over 3%, then slowly pulled back in the afternoon, basically returning to the opening price now. The earnings report hasn't been fully digested yet, but the bulls and bears are already fighting.
This earnings report can't just be judged by how many cars were sold. What really matters is: can the car business continue to grow? Can the gross margin improve? Can losses be further narrowed?
Now Xiaomi's logic is no longer just about phones; what really determines the future valuation space, I think, is still the car business. Of course, the potential ultimately has to translate into profits.
After all, being able to sell cars doesn't mean making money. No matter how fast sales grow, if profits don't keep up, the capital market will still revalue Xiaomi. Xiaomi trades on the "people-car-home full ecosystem."
What do you think about Xiaomi's potential for further gains? Are you bullish, bearish, or planning to wait and see?
Let's discuss your views on Xiaomi's future trend in the comments. 8.18 Tuesday ETH Latest Analysis
ETH follows the overall market trend and strengthens, with a clear overall oscillating upward pattern. The Bollinger Bands maintain an upward shape, and the price continuously finds support at the middle Bollinger Band. After a short-term surge, there is a slight pullback, which is merely a bullish consolidation; the long-term upward trend remains unchanged.
Key support below is at 1901, and short-term resistance above is at 1918. A valid breakout will continue the upward trend.
Trading suggestion: Buy on a pullback and stabilization in the 1870-1880 range, target 1910, with further breakout aiming at 1920. #BTC trading volume shrinks, can ETF buying pick up?
The market is indeed waiting for a catalyst: BTC trading volume shrinks, volatility narrows, implied volatility is low, and both buyers and sellers are clearly cautious; existing funds rotate between sectors, with ETH relatively strong. A breakout is likely to wait for variables such as the Hormuz situation, CPI data, and the Fed's September decision to materialize.
Current market status: low volume sideways, volatility extremely compressed
- Trading and volatility: BTC trading volume has clearly shrunk, price volatility range has narrowed to a multi-month low, the market is sideways with low volume around $63,000, with bulls and bears watching.
- Implied volatility: Options market implied volatility is low, indicating the market is not pricing in large future swings, more like "waiting for the wind."
Capital flow: existing funds rotate, ETH relatively favored
- ETF funds weak: Bitcoin spot ETF inflows are weak, stablecoin funds continue to flow out of the crypto market, with insufficient incremental funds.
- ETH relatively strong: ETH spot ETF has outperformed BTC since June, with July net inflow ratio by fund size about 9.4 times that of BTC; existing funds rotate between sectors, commonly pushing ETH first then waiting for BTC breakout.
Three potential catalysts: key variables to break the deadlock
- Hormuz situation: The US-Iran 60-day negotiation window expired on August 17 without substantive progress; Iran claims the US seriously violated the memorandum, talks failed to occur, and set a final deadline of several weeks for US compliance, preparing to shift policy from "defensive to full offensive," possibly escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz; the strait carries about 20%–30% of global seaborne crude oil, escalation could push oil prices up, affecting inflation expectations and global risk asset volatility.
- CPI data: US July CPI is a key inflation data point before the September rate meeting; June CPI year-on-year fell to 3.5%, month-on-month down 0.4%, cooling more than expected, which previously triggered a short squeeze and a brief Bitcoin rally; if July CPI continues to cool, it may further weaken Fed rate hike expectations, providing breathing room for the crypto market.
- Fed September decision: The market will closely watch the interest rate path and policy wording; if more dovish signals are released, liquidity expectations may improve, benefiting risk assets; if hawkish stance is maintained or rate hike options reserved, the market may remain suppressed.
Trading approach: don’t bet on low volatility, wait for confirmation before acting
- Existing longs: longs below $63,000 can continue to be held, with stop loss suggested to be moved up to $62,000 to control risk.
- Waiting for breakout: those without positions can wait for a volume breakout above $64,000 before entering, avoiding heavy bets on direction in a low volatility range.
- Rebound and stabilize before entry: also watch for entry opportunities after a pullback stabilizes in the $62,500–62,700 range.
Low volume sideways movement is unlikely to last long; breakouts are usually accompanied by volume expansion first; before variables materialize, managing position size and stop loss is more important than "guessing direction." $ETH $ETH: Whales have already accumulated 4.8%
The real big bulls are no longer satisfied with just calling trades.
They are preparing to directly take 5% of the $ETH supply.
BitMine recently disclosed that last week it continued to buy 9,926 ETH, bringing its total holdings to 5,815,164 ETH, about 4.8% of Ethereum's circulating supply; the company's crypto assets and cash combined total approximately $11.4 billion.
This is not ordinary buying on dips.
It is a publicly listed company attempting to turn ETH into an enterprise-level reserve asset.
Bulls see continuously locked chips and strengthened institutional confidence; bears see a different risk:
When massive chips are concentrated in a few corporate treasuries, any future financing, staking, or selling actions could amplify market volatility.
The market loves to praise steadfast holding but rarely discusses excessive chip concentration.
The fact is BitMine is still buying.
My view is that corporate hoarding does reduce short-term circulating supply but cannot be directly equated with a guaranteed rise in ETH.
The next step depends on two things:
Whether it can truly surpass the 5% target, and whether the staking yields from these ETH can cover the company's own financing costs.
Do you think this is institutions vying for pricing power, or concentrating risk into a larger position? The market isn’t boring — it’s revealing who actually has value. 👀
$LINK around $9 is starting to look less like a hype trade and more like a real asset. RWA + AI narratives have actual utility behind them, whales have been accumulating, and institutions seem comfortable treating it as a base position. Retail calling it “boring” might actually be the healthiest sign: no euphoria, no obvious bubble.
$ ticket 🎰
In this market, the boring asset might be the one worth watching.
#DailyOrbit The market is sending a clear warning. 📉
$BTC spot volume is near multi-year lows, while US spot ETFs flipped to $385M outflows after $865M of inflows the previous week.
Sellers may be exhausting, but buyers haven’t returned yet. That’s a classic divergence.
$ETH is showing a similar lack of strong demand. The key now is whether liquidity actually comes back—not whether prices briefly rebound.
Stay patient. Let capital flows confirm the recovery.
#30YYieldHits2007High #XiaomiEarningsWatch When the same macro news is released, BTC and ETH often react very differently in terms of timing. Not only because of market size, but also due to the nature of the capital flow of each asset type. 🧐
BTC is mainly driven by macro allocation funds. When data about US bonds or USD appears, large institutions and ETFs immediately adjust their portfolios, causing the price to react instantly. In contrast, ETH chThe Bloomberg Global Long-Term Bond Index yield is 4.2%, the highest since July 2008. What happened after July 2008? Lehman. But BTC is now at 64,138, still rising in the last 24 hours.
The market seems to be moving independently of history. Auctions are still selling, and repos haven't stopped. OECD countries have $61 trillion in debt, planning to borrow $18 trillion next year. After low-interest old debts mature, high yields will truly become interest payment pressure. In other words, it's not an explosion now, but a slow leak.
BTC hasn't reacted; I'm not sure if it thinks it's still too early or if it's completely desensitized to long-term bond yields.Bitcoin just broke above $64,000, rising over 1% intraday, and among the major coins, it’s almost the only one moving.
But I have to be honest—don’t rush to celebrate yet.
At present, this wave looks more like a "solo dance" by Bitcoin. ETH has fallen back below 1900, XRP has dropped back under $1, and BNB and DOGE are basically flat. The overall market still lacks unified upward momentum, and funds have not truly spread out.
From a technical perspective, I agree with FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich’s view: Bitcoin tried to break upward a few days ago but then fell back below the 50-day moving average and has failed to reclaim it for four consecutive days. On a longer timeframe, the price is still below the 200-week moving average. This means that in the medium and longer term, the selling pressure has not truly exited. As long as it remains stuck in the $62,000–$65,000 range, the pattern is unlikely to change substantially.
Another noteworthy signal is the movement of mining companies. Miner Weekly data shows that publicly listed Bitcoin miners have cut their hash rate by 21% over the past three quarters, with some resources shifting toward AI infrastructure. Mining revenue is weak, and combined with increased competition for electricity and capital from AI, this trend has actually been ongoing for some time. Correspondingly, Erik Voorhees’ Venice has annualized revenue exceeding $100 million, and VVV rose about 10% that day. The boundary between crypto and AI is becoming increasingly blurred.
Now, about this week’s token unlocks. August 20 is key:
• KAITO: approximately $9-11 million, about 7.6%-10.7% of circulating supply
• LayerZero (ZRO): approximately $19 million, about 4.4% of circulating supply
Relatively speaking, ZKsync (August 17) and Meteora (August 23) are much smaller in scale, and SOON and MBG are also this week but with less significant proportions.
Unlocks themselves don’t necessarily cause a dump; the key is how much new circulation is added, the market’s capacity to absorb it, and whether holders actually sell. Volatility usually rises before and after large unlocks, so it’s important to be prepared in advance.
My personal view: Bitcoin shows short-term resilience but hasn’t broken out of the range yet; don’t mistake this solo dance for a full bull market signal. What’s more worth watching is whether funds will truly flow into other major assets and the actual reaction after the two unlocks on August 20.
Observe first, then act. The Bloomberg Global Long-Term Bond Index yield is 4.2%, the highest since July 2008. What happened after July 2008? Lehman. But BTC is now at 64,138, still rising in the last 24 hours.
The market seems to be moving independently of history. Auctions are still selling, and repos haven't stopped. OECD countries have $61 trillion in debt, planning to borrow $18 trillion next year. After low-interest old debts mature, high yields will truly become interest payment pressure. In other words, it's not an explosion now, but a slow leak.
BTC hasn't reacted; I'm not sure if it thinks it's still too early or if it's completely desensitized to long-term bond yields.#黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨
Spot gold continues its strong performance, rising more than 1% intraday on August 17 and breaking through $4420/oz. On the morning of August 18, it remains above $4430, with silver rising in tandem. New changes have appeared on the trading side. U.S. quantitative trading firm Susquehanna points out that gold options demand is shifting from downside protection to bullish options, and gold funds have recently recorded the strongest inflows since January. On the macro level, Michael Hartnett from Bank of America views factors such as U.S. debt approaching $40 trillion and rising interest expenses as a backdrop supporting gold allocation. When gold prices are high, capital shifts from defense to offense, signaling a change in sentiment. But the real test lies in whether buying can evolve from short-term chasing to a more stable safe-haven allocation. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields hitting multi-year highs and persistent inflation could both amplify volatility. In the short term, focus on the sustainability of options capital and macro data, with priority on position management.Dormant rises and exchanges fall are two sides of the same phenomenon. Opening the on-chain monitoring page, you will see a set of sharply contrasting indicators: dormant coin balances continue to hit record highs, while exchange Bitcoin balances have long hovered near multi-year lows. One goes up, the other falls, completely opposite directions. The simultaneous appearance of these two indicators is not a coincidence, but rather the simultaneous accounting of the same behavior across two ledgers. Since 2022, the Bitcoin balance on exchanges has dropped from about 3.2–3.4 million to around 2.7 million (at one point hitting a multi-year low of about 2.56 million), a decline of about 20%. In other words, about one out of every five Bitcoins originally sitting on exchanges is withdrawn. This process lasted for several years, during which the market experienced bull-bear cycles, halving cycles, and external shocks, while overall exchange balances continued to decline. Meanwhile, long-term dormant coins continued to grow during this period. The rise and fall may correspond to the main flow of the same coin: Bitcoins originally lying in the exchange's hot wallet are moved to their cold wallets or personal addresses, entering a dormant or semi-dormant state. Once a cold wallet is issued and transferred to the long-term holding address, the exchange balance is directly reduced by one, while the balance of dormant or long-term holding addresses is increased by one. With one entry and one out, the dormant ledger and the exchange are simultaneously rewritten. It is worth noting that the tokens withdrawn from this portion were not simply changed to a new address, but underwent a significant change in nature: from spot tokens that could be traded at any time to more#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
SanDisk closed up over 8%, at one point exceeding 10% intraday, with Micron, Western Digital, SK Hynix, and other storage stocks also rising. The core driver of the increase is the market's reassessment of the long-term plan released on Investor Day: revenue growth of mid-to-high double digits from FY2028 to FY2030, an adjusted gross margin of about 80%, and a plan to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. More importantly, the long-term agreements. SanDisk has signed new business model agreements with 8 customers, with contracts lasting up to 5 years and a total value of approximately $93.9 billion, covering about half of the bit shipments in FY2027 and about two-thirds in FY2028. These agreements include floor prices and financial guarantees, significantly enhancing revenue visibility and profit floors, attempting to break the strong cyclical nature of traditional storage. The lock-in of AI data center demand has led the market to value the company from a more stable cash flow perspective rather than simply looking at spot price fluctuations. The short-term gains have been considerable, and there is a risk of technical pullback, but whether the long-term agreements can truly deliver high profit margins and cash return targets will determine the sustainability of this rally. Key focus is on subsequent delivery data and actual gross margin realization. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to the 5.29%-5.32% range, marking a new high since 2007; the 10-year yield also climbed to about 4.72%. This change occurs against the backdrop of the expanding U.S. debt scale, increased pressure from long-term bond issuance, and inflation still above the Federal Reserve's target. The supply side is the direct driver. The U.S. Treasury has increased long-term issuance, combined with the AI financing wave boosting investment-grade bond volumes, intensifying competition for long-term funds. The demand side is also not optimistic; June data shows the UK, Japan, and China all reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings, with Japanese government bonds also being sold off simultaneously, indicating that long-term rate pressure is not unique to the U.S. If long-term yields remain high, financing costs for governments, corporations, and households will rise, stock valuations will be under pressure, and assets like gold and BTC will be more susceptible to interest rate fluctuations. In the short term, the market will be more sensitive to pricing for "higher for longer," potentially amplifying volatility. The real focus is on subsequent auction results and whether inflation data can ease supply concerns. Position management is a priority. #财报观察员：Xiaomi is about to release its earnings report, which business line do you favor more?
Xiaomi's Q2 earnings will be unveiled tonight. Market expectations are generally weak: revenue is expected to decline about 5% year-over-year, and net profit will sharply drop, mainly dragged down by rising storage chip prices and pressure on phone shipments. What truly matters is not a single figure, but the fulfillment level of the three business lines. High-end smartphones remain the foundation. Xiaomi continues to cut low-margin models and raise ASP, with a clear strategic direction, but whether gross margin can hold amid rising storage costs and intensified competition is key. If high-end series sales remain stable, it can prove the brand premium is effective. The automotive business is expected to be the second growth curve. Delivery volume remains resilient, but weak domestic demand and subsidy reductions are still testing it. Whether it can truly shift from the "investment period" to stable contribution depends on subsequent model volume growth and gross margin improvement. AIoT and the "full ecosystem of people, cars, and homes" is a longer-term story. Device connections and user stickiness are growing, and AI investment is increasing, but short-term profit contribution is limited; it is more about ecosystem synergy and future potential. The short-term earnings report will likely be under pressure, and stock price volatility is inevitable. What truly determines the mid-term direction is whether high-end phones can continue to deliver, when the automotive business will form a stable second curve, and the progress of the full ecosystem closed-loop implementation. Beyond the numbers, management's guidance for the second half of the year will be more important. 减半与沉睡形成双重紧缩。 很多人以为比特币减半之后，沉睡币的增长会因为新进场筹码变少而放缓。可链上数据呈现的恰好相反：减半之后，沉睡币反而越攒越多，相对节奏甚至比减半之前还要更紧。 这是一套供给与存量双向作用的结果。 减半机制从一开始就内置了越往后越稀缺的基因，而沉睡币则是这套基因的镜像放大器。 新产出的速度在变慢。 2024 年 4 月减半之后，比特币每日新增产出从约 900 枚直接腰斩到 450 枚，缩水整整一半。这意味着市场上多出来的筹码在肉眼可见地变少，供给端的天花板被进一步压低。 在此之前，市场每天要消化约 900 枚新挖出的币，矿工、交易所、二级买家都得为这部分增量找到出口；减半之后，这部分压力直接减半，市场整体的承接负担也跟着下来了。 可问题是，沉睡币的增速并未同步放缓。 月度新增进入长期沉睡（尤其是超过 10 年未动）的数量，长期保持在约 10000 到 20000 枚这个区间。哪怕减半之后新挖出的币总量减少了，新加入沉睡地址的币并没有等比例下滑。 原本每天有约 900 枚新增币流入市场，其中一部分会进入沉睡地址；现在每天只剩约 450 枚新增币，但沉睡净增量基本维持在Today is the contract upgrade day for $OKB.
On the afternoon of August 18, the OKB smart contract upgrade was officially implemented, permanently removing the minting and manual burning functions.
The total supply of 21 million is coded in and cannot be changed by anyone.
This is inherently very good news, but the price did not rise; instead, it fell by 2.6% in 24 hours, dropping from 107 to around 104.
Why?
Because the positive news had already been priced in. On August 13, when $OKB announced the one-time burning of 65.25 million OKB and the total supply locked at 21 million, the price jumped from $47 directly to $142, a 200% increase in a single week.
That 200% surge was essentially pricing in today's contract upgrade in advance.
By the time the good news actually landed, those who wanted to enter had already done so; the rest were just spectators and chasing the high. This is buying on the news ahead of time, and once the news is released, the good news turns into bad news! Because some people will sell to take profits!
From a technical perspective: short-term support is at 100-102, strong support at 95-98, resistance at 108-110. Only by holding above 110 can a new upward phase open.
Conclusion: OKB will fluctuate between 95-115 in the short term; after those chasing the high are cut, it will choose a new direction. But if it falls below 90, seriously reconsider. And be sure to control your position size!
#高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 1、【合约整体盘面数据】 全网合约持仓总量1193.5亿美元，整体基本持平。 24小时成交额来到1515.2亿美元，环比大幅上涨91.76%，市场交投活跃度快速升温。 24小时全网爆仓2.22亿美元，共计66885人遭遇爆仓，最大单笔爆仓为Hyperliquid‑BTC，金额1029.01万美元。 时间维度拆解：12小时爆仓1亿美元，其中多单6290.3万、空单3816.9万；24小时空单爆仓规模1.4亿大于多单8386.3万，短期多头被清洗，大周期空头杠杆集中出清。 2、【BTC多空与资金费率】 币安BTC永续人数多空比1.53，OKX为1.54，散户多头依旧占优，但比值同步出现明显回落。 两大交易所U本位资金费率维持正值，但费率幅度大幅下行，追涨做多的热情有所降温。 3、【清算地图流动性分布】 现价被夹在两段关键流动性区间之内。 上方64800‑65200区间堆积大量空单待清算，放量上攻会触发挤空行情； 下方63300‑63800存在密集多头强平盘，一旦有效下破，将引发连环多单清算，进一步扩大回调。 4、【晚间宏观事件提醒】 今晚20:15将公布美国ADP就业数据，数据结果直接扰动Last night, I shorted Sandisk above 1800, betting all my reputation on it. Looking back today, both the position and direction have been fully validated.
SanDisk rebounded from 993 to above 1800, with a short-term increase of over 80%. Last night, the price briefly broke through 1800, reaching a high of around 1835 during the session. I directly entered the market in batches above 1800, and my short positions are already in place.
Why dare to bet on reputation to short. Technically, the RSI on the 4-hour chart surged to 89, indicating severe overbought conditions. The MACD showed a high-level top divergence, and the price formed a double top near 1663, accompanied by a sharp contraction in trading volume after a massive surge. Above 1800 is an extreme emotional zone, and it has already reached the limit of a rebound.
Fundamentally, SanDisk's stock price surged from $40 to $2,354, with its market value expanding more than 50 times. In the second quarter, two-thirds of its revenue growth was driven by price increases, while its consumer business continued to shrink. SK Hynix's new NAND production capacity is on the way, and the signals indicating the peak of the cycle are already very clear.
In terms of capital flows, smart money is retreating. Renaissance Technologies has slashed its holdings in SanDisk by over 99%, while Appaloosa has completely liquidated approximately 280,000 shares. Institutions are exiting, and you're chasing them—decide for yourself who's right and who's wrong.
Shorting above 1800 is not chasing the short; it's waiting for the rebound to reach the right level before taking a sniper shot.$SNDK #AI押注受挫, Wall Street trading giants lost $15 billion in the month
We're doomed!!
Wall Street's top market maker Jane Street lost $15 billion in July, marking its first single-month loss in nearly a decade. AI-themed funds and tech stocks suffered losses amid market corrections.
The core of this issue is not the 15 billion yuan itself, but the risk of AI crowding trading has already been transmitted from individual stocks to top market makers. When even one of the largest market makers suffers losses in AI trading, it shows that the chips in this sector have become dangerously crowded. Behind the 15 billion yuan loss is the beginning of institutional deleveraging. Jane Street's net trading revenue for the year still exceeds 40 billion yuan, so it won't go bankrupt, but it is shrinking its risk exposure.
The chain reaction will continue along this path: market makers reduce leverage, cut trading exposure, and reduce liquidity provision, causing market depth to decline and small orders to trigger greater volatility. AI-themed funds are redeemed, holdings are being sold off, and tech stocks are further under pressure. Hedge funds are forced to close positions, and other highly volatile assets are simultaneously affected by liquidity contraction.
The impact on BTC is indirect. Jane Street's losses do not directly change BTC's direction, but they reduce overall market risk appetite and increase volatility. BTC, as the most liquidity-sensitive risk asset, feels pressure. In the short term, the market is undergoing deleveraging; do not heavily bet on the direction at this stage. Sentiment is transmitted faster than fundamentals; wait until institutions have adjusted their positions before acting.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
So what’s next for $BTC $ETH 🔥🔥
The 30-year US Treasury yield has hit a multi-year high, triggering a global asset valuation reset; BTC bears the pressure while ETH shows amplified elasticity.
Three scenario analyses, broken down:
1. Scenario One: Yields continue to rise (bearish)
Funds keep withdrawing from risk assets, BTC’s lower range under pressure, ETH declines more than BTC; the market mainly experiences pressured oscillation and repeated support tests, making a large-scale rebound difficult.
2. Scenario Two: Yields spike then fall back (bullish)
Bond market selling pressure eases, risk-free rates decline, risk asset valuations recover, BTC opens up rebound space, ETH elasticity releases, and on-chain sectors warm up simultaneously.
3. Scenario Three: Yields oscillate at high levels (neutral)
Yields stay high without further surge or rapid decline. BTC and ETH maintain large-range oscillation; the market is more driven by ETF funds, inflation data, and news.
🔍 Key signals to watch next:
1. The 30-year US Treasury is the big picture; focus on whether it continues to hold the new high or spikes then falls back.
2. Daily fund flows of BTC-ETF; sustained large outflows indicate institutions are seeking safety.
3. ETH/BTC ratio: a continuous decline indicates weak overall market risk appetite, making sustained altcoin rallies difficult.
4. Watch US Treasury auction results; a cold auction could further push long-term yields higher, amplifying crypto market volatility.
(Personal analysis only, not investment advice)
Steady progress to all, wishing you great wealth and ever better fortunes 18/08/2026 — The most notable new topic A new development that is likely to have a long-term impact on a short-term BTC pump has just appeared in the US: The US Treasury Department has officially released a draft regulation for the implementation of the GENIUS Act for payment stablecoins and opened the public comment period. (U.S. Department of the Treasury) This is an important step forward as stablecoins are gradually becoming a bridge between the traditional financial system and crypto. And this time, the story is not just USDT or USDC. It relates to: #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨
Spot gold surged above $4430/oz (intraday high 4435+), COMEX futures gold simultaneously touched 4493, silver rose above 66, and oil, gold, and silver all rallied together. More importantly, on the options side—GLD November 460 call large orders were aggressively bought, one-month implied volatility remains near lows, and the bullish skew has reversed toward calls for the first time since summer. Gold funds recorded the strongest inflow since January.
The drivers are not a single factor but three forces combined:
• July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly -23,000, moderate CPI, weak retail sales, September rate hike probability dropped to 33%, and falling real rates directly providing support;
• Trump’s intervention in the Fed + “Big and Beautiful” bill + US debt surpassing 40 trillion, a resurgence of dollar credit discount trading, and central banks buying gold to support base positions;
• Middle East + uncertainty over Hormuz Strait navigation remains unresolved, shorts forced to cover above 4400.
How to interpret this for the crypto space:
Gold is being repriced as a "defensive core"; BTC is a short-term bystander rather than a beneficiary—true safe-haven funds go to gold first, not on-chain. However, tokenized gold like XAUT/PAXG is the most certain correlated asset to rise. For BTC to reattach to the "digital gold" narrative, gold needs to stabilize above 4500 and the Fed minutes (8/19) need to be dovish before that can happen. The short-term resistance zone is 4430-4450 with dense trading; chasing longs has low cost-effectiveness, and only if the 4380-4400 support holds can continuation be discussed.#MiningOneLosesOne: Miners Selling Coins Is the Real Reason Behind BTC Trading Shrinkage
@Meta8Mate posted data early on 8/18 that revealed the truth: Listed mining companies sold 28,000 BTC this year, worth about $17.8 billion; the industry average mining cost is $74,300, while the coin price is just over $63,000. Mining one coin results in a loss, so miners selling coins is not panic but a cost-structure-driven forced sale.
@lookonchain pulled Riot Platforms' data on 8/18: In the first half of 2026, they sold a total of 9,665 BTC, valued at $732 million, with an average selling price of $75,785. @RoundtableSpace added: Riot has already sold over $730 million worth of BTC this year.
What does the $75,785 average selling price mean? Riot is not cutting losses at the bottom but selling above cost. However, the current coin price is just over $64,000, and Riot’s selling price is higher than the current price, indicating they sold during a rebound, not at the current price level. The real issue is: if the coin price continues to hover between $60,000 and $65,000, mining companies with a $74,300 mining cost will continue to face the "mining one coin loses one coin" pressure. Selling coins is not a choice but a necessity.
Riot sold 4,300 BTC in the second quarter alone, reducing inventory from 15,680 to 11,380. So who is selling precious BTC? It turns out miners are also dumping.
@whale_alert recorded a large transfer at 03:20 on 8/18: 2,398 BTC (about $154 million) moved from an unknown wallet to OKEx. Exchange inflows are a precursor to selling pressure. This transfer may not be from miners, but combined with Riot’s near 10,000 BTC sales data, it shows miners sending mined coins directly to exchanges has become industry norm.
@Alvin0617 said something worth noting during a livestream: Looking at xhunt, hardly anyone is talking about Crypto anymore, but this might mean the worst market conditions have likely passed. He gave a specific observation: BTC price might test the $60-62K range, but attention can start returning to the crypto space.
ETH also showed two structural signals on 8/18. The Ethereum Foundation launched the Platåberget testnet in preparation for the Glamsterdam upgrade on August 20, with the upgrade schedule proceeding as planned. The Moscow Exchange plans to launch BTC and ETH perpetual futures next month, expanding to 10 crypto assets. BTC and ETH are chosen as the first perpetual contracts, showing traditional exchanges regard these two chains as crypto asset benchmarks.
$BTC perpetual futures reported $64,186.9 at 06:00 on 8/18, up 1.17% in 24h; funding rate turned positive at +0.0038%, open interest about $2.08 billion. Funding rate shifted from -0.0003% yesterday to positive, indicating short covering is nearing completion and bulls are starting to enter. But open interest hasn’t changed much, so bulls haven’t significantly added positions yet.
$ETH perpetual futures reported $1,894.44, down 0.22% in 24h; funding rate +0.0039%, open interest about $1.32 billion. ETH slightly dipped in 24h, contrasting BTC’s 1.17% rise. ETH’s gains from yesterday were partially given back today, but funding remains positive with no signs of panic.
Trading shrinkage is not just due to weakening ETF buying but also continuous selling pressure from miners on the supply side. Mining cost at $74,300 vs coin price at $64,000 — unless this gap narrows, miners won’t stop selling.
Whether ETF buying recovers depends on institutional reallocation cycles. But miner selling is a tougher constraint — it doesn’t depend on market sentiment but on electricity costs and mining difficulty. If BTC price doesn’t return above $75,000, miner selling pressure will persist. This is the overlooked supply-side truth behind the "BTC trading shrinkage" narrative.
ETH faces no miner selling pressure; the staking exit queue remains at zero. The supply-side pressures of the two chains differ: BTC’s comes from miner cost structure, ETH doesn’t have this issue.
Three routine questions:
Mining cost $74,300 vs coin price $64,000, at what BTC price do you bet miner selling pressure will ease?
Riot sold nearly 10,000 BTC in half a year at an average price of $75,785 — is this selling during a rebound or forced by cost structure?
ETH has no miner selling pressure and staking exit queue at zero — do you believe ETH’s supply side is healthier than BTC’s?
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #miners #miningcost In Meta's Q2 2026 earnings report, free cash flow (FCF) plummeted 91% year-over-year (from $8.55 billion to $784 million), which looks very bad.
But investors misread the numbers. What really matters is that operating cash flow actually grew about 25% (from $25.56 billion to $31.86 billion).
Key reasons
Capital expenditures (Capex) nearly doubled: from $17.01 billion to $31.07 billion.
Revenue grew 28% (from $47.52 billion to $60.80 billion).
Operating profit declined mainly due to one-time expenses (about $2.4 billion in legal fees + $1.18 billion in severance). Excluding these costs, operating profit would have actually increased about 9.4%.
Advertising business remains strong
- Ad impressions +14%
- Average ad price +12%
- Combined driving about 27.7% growth
The new recommendation model improved Facebook ad click-through rate by 8.3% and conversion rate by 15.7%
So: price increases indicate better ad effectiveness, not just stuffing more ads.
And although FCF may remain near zero for the next few quarters, as long as operating cash flow and ad pricing continue to grow, free cash flow will naturally recover once capital expenditures slow down. $META $XMETA #XiaomiEarningsWatch Xiaomi’s earnings are one I’m genuinely curious about because this is no longer just a smartphone story 👀
Premium phones remain important, but the bigger question for me is whether EVs can become a durable second growth engine rather than simply an exciting new product line. Strong demand is encouraging, but scaling production, managing costs and maintaining margins will matter just as much 🚗
I’m also watching how Xiaomi connects smartphones, AIoT devices and vehicles through its Human × Car × Home ecosystem. The idea sounds powerful, but the real test is whether users actually experience enough value to stay within that ecosystem.
This report should show which part of the strategy is carrying the most momentum right now.
Which business gives Xiaomi the strongest long-term advantage: premium smartphones, EVs or the connected ecosystem?HYPE trades at $HYPE 59.135 (-0.56%), sitting below key moving averages (MA5: 59.260, MA10: $HYPE 59.276, MA20: 59.270). MACD shows short-term bearish pressure (-0.047).
Reclaiming resistance at 59.276 opens room toward 59.636. Losing support near 58.918 risks a drop toward the 24h low at 58.453.
#XiaomiEarningsWatch #30YYieldHits2007High #OKX.ai Narrative Rotation Is Accelerating 🔄
Crypto liquidity isn’t disappearing—it’s moving between sectors.
While $BTC is down around 0.62% and $ETH has slipped 1.01%, the altcoin market is showing a clear divergence. Some sectors are attracting fresh bids while others are experiencing aggressive selling.
🚀 Strength is appearing in Web3, infrastructure and AI:
$AEON +9.15%
$BICO +7.29%
$ROBO +4.78%
$ONT +4.35%
Meanwhile, GameFi and storage-related tokens are facing heavier pressure:
$ETH BTC dormant supply hits a new all-time high!!!
According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, the amount of BTC that has been dormant without any transfers for over 10 years has reached 3.56 million coins, accounting for 17.7% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin, setting a new historical high. In the past 30 days, an additional 14,000 BTC have entered the ten-year dormant range.
On the positive side, a large amount of ancient coins are locked up long-term, directly reducing the floating supply available for trading in the market at any time. When new buying demand enters the market, the reduced floating supply amplifies price elasticity, strengthening Bitcoin's scarcity narrative from the ground up. This is also on-chain proof of long-term accumulation and faith by major whales, providing long-term bottom support for the market.
However, there is a key misconception here: rising dormant supply alone cannot directly drive price increases. Price rallies must be supported by external incremental capital inflows. The current contradiction is that while dormant coins keep hitting new highs, BTC spot ETFs have recently seen continuous net outflows of funds. External new buying demand is temporarily absent, so the current rebound is still a game of existing funds.
There is also a hidden risk: these dormant coins are not permanently locked. If one day a large number of ancient wallets suddenly activate and transfer coins, a large influx of coins into the market would instantly bring huge selling pressure. Rising dormant supply is a long-term bullish signal but should not be taken as a basis for immediate short-term bullishness. Short-term market trends still need to be judged by variables such as ETF funds and Federal Reserve policies.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH $BTC is $64,134 today, up 0.55% in 24 hours.
It has surpassed 64,000 for the second time this week.
The range in the past 24 hours was 62,727 - 64,590, with volatility compressed within 3%.
Kuzi thinks the real story isn't the price, but the reversal in ETF metrics!
Last week, $BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of $1.1 billion, ending the continuous net outflow since the start of 2026.
BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for 80% of BTC ETF inflows; institutions have been replenishing positions.
But there's a divergence here: while ETF funds are flowing back, $BTC ETF trading volume last week dropped to the second lowest since October 2024. Money is coming in, but turnover hasn't picked up.
What does this mean? It means these institutions are buying for allocation, not trading. Long-term money is accumulating at lows, while short-term money is still watching.
On-chain whales haven't been idle either; the number of wallets holding 1000+ BTC hit a new high in 2026. Whales are hoarding, not selling.
Looking at the macro rhythm: US-Iran ceasefire on 8/14, Hormuz Strait navigation resumed, WTI oil price dropped from 82.4 to 80.25, geopolitical premium easing; July CPI at 3.4%, PPI cooling significantly, 85% chance of rate cut in September.
Cross-asset comparison is clearer: S&P 500 broke 7800 for the first time this week, gold is consolidating at a high of $4,375/oz, BTC just returned to 64,000.
The same inflation cooling script: US stocks hitting new highs, gold hitting new highs, BTC still trading in the 63,000-64,000 range.
The direction is right; what's missing is a trigger event.
There are three upcoming events that could ignite the market!
8/19 White House meeting, 8/22 Powell at Jackson Hole, 9/15 CLARITY Act cloture — three major events within three weeks.
Conclusion: 64,000 is neither a bottom nor a top, but a turnover zone. Support at 63,000-62,500 (if it breaks 62,000, watch 60,000), resistance at 64,500-65,500. Only a firm break above 65,500 counts as a real recovery. ETF inflows are a left-side signal, not a right-side confirmation. Positions remain unchanged; wait for a statement after 8/22. Avoid messing around with low volume over the weekend; watch the direction again on Monday night session.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注