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A statement from the White House pulls Bitcoin back to 70,000 — policy bottom is more important than price bottom
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #FederalReserve #ClarityAct #AITrading
Brothers, today's surge is unusual.
BTC hit a high of $70,000 in the past 24 hours, rising nearly 8% at one point, marking the highest since June. Over $1 billion in short positions across the network were liquidated within just one hour, the largest scale since 2021.
This is not a technical rebound; this is a policy-driven short squeeze.
Core catalyst: The White House has finalized the "regulatory bottom"
On August 19 local time, Trump met with key crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken, Robinhood, and others at the White House Roosevelt Room. Trump announced three key developments on the spot:
First, the Clarity Act will be voted on in Congress on September 15. If passed, the boundary between "securities" and "commodities" for digital assets will be legislatively clarified for the first time. Coinbase CEO Armstrong personally confirmed this timeline.
Second, the U.S. government has discussed accumulating a "substantial amount" of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. This means a national-level strategic reserve is no longer just a concept but a policy option in progress.
Third, SEC Chair Atkins announced new crypto asset issuance rules, proposing exemptions from securities registration requirements for certain digital assets, allowing crypto startups to legally raise funds in the U.S. The CFTC is also advancing the compliance framework for Hyperliquid's entry into the U.S.
The market originally expected the Clarity Act to be delayed until after the midterm elections, but now it has suddenly been moved up to mid-September.
This is not "all good news priced in," but a "complete restructuring of expectations."
A large number of shorts were based on the premise of a "regulatory deadlock continuing," and now that premise has been overturned, they can only cover at any cost.
Federal Reserve minutes: hidden signs of market warming
The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes released early that day showed that "many" officials believe rate hikes are necessary if inflation is hard to reduce. It sounds hawkish, but the market actually breathed a sigh of relief — because after the minutes were released, the probability of a September rate hike remained around 35%, without a significant jump.
Why?
Because the minutes also confirmed the Fed is seriously discussing AI lending risks and overvaluation bubbles.
When the Fed starts worrying about an AI bubble, it means the logic of "AI overheating causing the Fed to hesitate to ease" is weakening.
For the crypto market, this narrative shift is more important than Fed officials' statements.
August market logic completely reverses
Policy-driven events have begun to shift toward "framework establishment."
When we discussed the August outlook in late July, the core judgment was "event-driven rebound with doubtful sustainability."
At that time, three major negatives loomed: possible collapse of U.S.-Iran talks, rate hike expectations possibly returning, and the Clarity Act possibly delayed until after the midterms.
Now the most important of these three variables has completely loosened:
- The Act is not "wait and see," but a confirmed vote on September 15, with the White House openly pressuring for progress
- SEC and CFTC are proactively setting rules, no longer passively waiting for legislation
- The U.S. government openly discussing "reserving Bitcoin," industry expectations fully warming up
66,000-68,000 is the technical resistance zone for this bear market, but once policy logic is established, technical resistance is just a matter of time.
AIX's judgment
Direction: short-term bullish, but sentiment is already very exuberant, chasing highs carries significant risk.
The core driver of this rally is policy expectation restructuring, not fundamental improvement.
A true trend reversal must meet two hard conditions:
1. Smooth passage of the Clarity Act
2. Continuous inflow of ETF funds, not a one-day wonder
Entry points:
Current price around 68,500 is not recommended for chasing highs.
If the price pulls back to 65,000-66,000 and shows signs of stabilization, it is a quality long entry zone, with stop loss below 63,500 and target 70,000-72,000.
For existing positions, move the take-profit from 68,000 up to 69,500.
ETH market:
Up 19% in one day, showing much better elasticity than BTC.
If BTC holds above 68,000, ETH will continue to catch up, with targets at 2,200-2,300.
Core idea
The White House meeting directly locked in the Clarity Act timeline — vote on September 15.
Before then, policy bullish expectations will continue to ferment, but current prices have already priced in some of the benefits early.
- If the Act passes smoothly → 68,000 will become the new market bottom
- If the Act is delayed again → this rally is just an extreme short squeeze
Discuss in the comments: BTC at 70,000, will you chase or not?
Personal opinion, not investment advice. The market has risks, be responsible for yourself.
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #FederalReserve #ClarityAct #AITrading#SK Hynix 40 Trillion Won Buyback: How to Balance Expansion and Returns
The boss has something to say
SK Hynix has dropped a 40 trillion won buyback bomb, the largest in the history of Korean listed companies. It started on August 20 and will last for three months, repurchasing about 24.07 million shares, accounting for 3.3% of issued shares, all to be canceled. Based on the previous day's closing price of 1.662 million won, this amounts to approximately $28.6 billion.
Why act at this point in time?
SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion won, a year-on-year increase of 257%, operating profit was 60.54 trillion won, up 557%, and the cumulative revenue for the first half of the year exceeded 100 trillion won for the first time. The performance is at a money-printing machine level, but the stock price fell from the June 25 high of 2.987 million won to 1.5 million, nearly halving. On August 18, the US ADR dropped 9.2% in one day. The better the performance, the more the stock price falls, and the management can't sit still.
The company's original statement was "The current stock price does not fully reflect the company's intrinsic value based on business competitiveness and cash flow generation capability." Using $28.6 billion in real cash to make a statement is more effective than any research report.
Shareholder return policy upgraded simultaneously
From 2025 to 2027, more than 50% of cumulative free cash flow will be used for shareholder returns, raised from the previous "not exceeding 50%" to "not less than 50%." JPMorgan calls this a "substantial policy upgrade," turning the ceiling into a floor. The company is also considering fixed dividends and special dividends, with specific plans to be disclosed when Q3 results are announced.
Wall Street collectively raises target prices
JPMorgan's target price is 2.75 million won, an 84% upside from the current price, estimating that Hynix can return at least $130 billion more to shareholders by 2027. Goldman Sachs's target price is 3.5 million won, implying a 133% upside. Nomura's target price is 4.7 million won. Goldman Sachs also raised its EPS forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 4%, 10%, and 10%, respectively.
Market reaction
SK Hynix ADR surged over 7% pre-market. On August 20, KOSPI rose over 6%, SK Hynix intraday surged over 13%, triggering a buy-side program trading halt.
My view
There are two levels worth pondering.
First, AI storage profits are starting to be distributed to shareholders on a large scale. Semiconductor companies used to keep earnings for expansion because manufacturing is a heavy asset industry. But now, Hynix is expanding production while still able to allocate $28.6 billion for buybacks, indicating that HBM's cash flow quality is on a completely different level from traditional memory cycles. The valuation logic is shifting from cyclical stocks to high growth + high cash flow + shareholder returns.
Second, the buyback scale exceeds the $26.5 billion raised by ADR in July, effectively using buybacks to hedge equity dilution. And this is just the appetizer; Goldman Sachs predicts about an additional 7 trillion won in buybacks in the future.
The valuation anchor has changed. Previously, the focus was on how much HBM could sell; now it's on how the profits are distributed. As for how far this wave can go, the Q3 earnings call at the end of October will provide a more complete shareholder return roadmap. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is timely; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议
This CLARITY Act controversy is essentially like two people fighting over a card table.
On one side are the banks.
On the other side are the crypto platforms.
On the surface, they are disputing a stablecoin reward clause, but deeper down, they are actually fighting over where users' money should be held in the future.
The banks' logic is simple.
If a person puts $10,000 in a bank, they can earn interest; but if they convert $10,000 into stablecoins and put it in a wallet, earning similar returns, banks naturally worry: will deposits slowly drain away?
So the banking industry is reminding regulators, hoping to limit this "holding coins to earn yields" model.
But the crypto industry sees it differently.
They believe that if stablecoins are just digital cash without the ability to develop richer financial applications, then innovation will be restricted.
This is actually a tug-of-war between old finance and new finance.
Every financial change in history has seen similar conflicts.
When credit cards appeared, people worried about changes to the banking system; when internet finance emerged, traditional institutions also feared losing customers.
Now it's stablecoins' turn.
What really matters is not who shouts the loudest, but who ultimately controls the entry point of capital flow.
The market will never change because of a concept, but because users actually start using it.
The greatest value of stablecoins in the future lies not in whether it is a "coin," but in whether it can become a new financial infrastructure.5. Walmart (WMT)
Up 3.6%, a major U.S. retail giant. The latest financial report shows revenue slightly exceeding expectations, with a discount merchandise strategy stabilizing customer traffic. U.S. residents have strong resilience in essential consumption, maintaining a solid supermarket base. The company continuously optimizes its supply chain to reduce procurement costs and maintain profit levels. Against the backdrop of inflation, residents cut discretionary spending, with only essential categories maintaining stable growth. The offline supermarket industry has limited growth potential, with long-term growth being moderate. The stock has defensive characteristics and tends to attract capital when market risk appetite declines. 1. BioNTech (BNTX)
Surged 22.4%, a representative company of the mRNA technology route. Positive phase 3 clinical results of Moderna's cancer vaccine have ignited the sector, and the market is optimistic about the commercialization prospects of nucleic acid drugs in the oncology field. The company has a mature mRNA R&D platform, with multiple tumor vaccine candidates advancing to clinical stages. The company's revenue structure is single and highly dependent on vaccine product sales. New drug clinical results are uncertain, and the approval process is lengthy. This rise is driven by industry news catalysts, not breakthroughs in the company's own pipeline. After the sector sentiment cools down, the stock price is likely to give back some gains, requiring continuous monitoring of the progress of self-developed projects. 2. Bohui Innovation (300318)
Closed at the daily limit with a 20cm increase, supported by dual concepts of in vitro diagnostics and vaccine consumables. The pharmaceutical sector is broadly recovering, with rising expectations for the nucleic acid vaccine industry and increased demand for vaccine-related consumables. The company mainly supplies testing reagents and vaccine adjuvant raw materials, providing supporting materials for multiple pharmaceutical companies. In the short term, stock price rises are driven by sentiment, and the company's core business revenue scale is not large. Fluctuations in upstream raw material prices will compress product gross margins, and there are few independently developed major products. The market follows sector rotation without independent fundamental positive support. When high-level chips loosen, the pullback can be significant, so it is not suitable for medium- to long-term holding. 1. Lukang Pharmaceutical (600789)
Hit the daily limit, a popular stock in the pharmaceutical sector. Overseas mRNA tumor vaccine research has made breakthroughs, and the market is broadly optimistic about the nucleic acid drug track, leading to overall strength in the biopharmaceutical sector. The company is involved in peptide drugs and anti-infective agents, building a drug research and development platform. Short-term funds quickly entered the market, pushing up the stock price with significantly increased trading volume. The company's self-developed tumor pipeline progress is slow; this round of rise is driven by sector themes, lacking strong clinical benefits from the company itself. The generic drug business is affected by centralized procurement policies, limiting profit margins in the long term. The thematic market's sustainability is limited; after the sector's heat cools down, the stock price will face pressure. Short-term trading requires position control. 170,000 people. This is the number of people forced to close in the past 24 hours. There were $3 billion in liquidations across the entire network, of which 2.7 billion were short positions—the largest single-day short squeeze in history, even harsher than the '10/11' incident. BTC rose from 65,307 to 72,495 in 24 hours, now at 71,804, still up +9.93% intraday. ETH is even stronger, rising +17.9% above 2,284. XRP directly rose +20%. The panic greed index jumped from 46 to 62 overnight, entering the greed zone. First, state my position: I am short this round, not a single contract, and I haven't added any spot shares. So you can say the following words as someone with no vested interests—I don't need you to take over, nor do I make money by shorting the market. The two claims on the trending list don't hold up today. I flipped through more than twenty posts, and most of them are talking about two things: interest rate cuts are coming, bills are about to pass. Let's start with rate cuts. The Fed meeting minutes made it clear: not a single person advocated for rate cuts. The market predicts a 74% probability of holding steady in September. Governor Warsh even said that if inflation accelerates again, a rate hike in September cannot be ruled out. So the statement "rate cuts drive crypto up" is completely factual wrong today. You see it in a post, but the author of that post didn't check the data. Now, let's talk about the bill. Trump did meet with crypto executives at the White House, announced the "end of the war on crypto," and publicly urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act, even in a subtle wayThe South Korean composite index KOSPI surged nearly 5.9% in a single day, leading a collective rebound in Asian tech stocks. The core driving force of this rally is not index rotation but an unexpectedly massive buyback by a semiconductor leader, completely reversing the market's pessimistic expectations about the weakening storage cycle. The key trigger for this surge was SK Hynix's announcement of an epic buyback and cancellation plan worth 40 trillion KRW, the largest scale in Korean stock market history. The company also announced that from 2025 to 2027, it will allocate over 50% of free cash flow to buybacks and dividends. The company's willingness to dig deep to reward shareholders essentially confirms that the current stock price is severely undervalued, the AI storage profit cycle remains robust, and its cash flow and order fundamentals are solid. Under the leading demonstration effect, market funds began to speculate that Samsung Electronics would follow suit with shareholder return policies. AI high-bandwidth memory (HBM) continues to be in short supply, and leading storage companies are generating ample cash flow, fully unlocking the valuation recovery logic for the entire Korean tech sector. Capital is flowing back into the AI infrastructure track, no longer overly worried about the cycle peaking. On the market front, Korean stocks directly benefit from the surge in heavyweight chip stocks, and their low-valuation tech attributes attract foreign capital inflows. The sentiment spills over to the US storage sector, with Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital all experiencing sentiment recovery, warming the overall AI supply chain. The deep market signal is very clear: Asia's top chip manufacturers are actively shrinking their balance sheets to raise valuations, proving the industry's strong confidence in mid-to-long-term AI capital expenditures and HBM demand. Risks still exist: this rebound is more driven by valuation repair and capital sentiment, and if laterUnderstanding How Ethereum Grew from a "Youthful Experiment" into an Ecological Giant
⚠️Content is only a historical review of the sector and does not constitute any investment advice
Many people only know that ETH is the second largest by market cap, but they don’t realize it has faced multiple near-collapse moments along the way, growing from a whitepaper written by a young man into the foundational base of the entire Web3. Understanding its ups and downs is more important than simply betting on price movements.
1. Germination: An Unfavored Experimental Project
In 2013, 19-year-old Vitalik wrote the Ethereum whitepaper, proposing the concept of a world computer: Bitcoin could only transfer value, but Ethereum could run smart contracts, allowing blockchain to support various applications.
In 2014, a crowdfunding campaign raised funds by exchanging Bitcoin for ETH. At that time, most of the Bitcoin community was skeptical, thinking the new project was too abstract and overly ambitious.
In July 2015, the mainnet launched with very few early developers. It was just a niche technical experiment without large-scale applications, the price was low, and few realized its future potential.
2. Life-or-Death Crisis: Hacker Theft in the First Year Nearly Ended It
In 2016, the major security incident of The DAO occurred, where hackers exploited contract vulnerabilities to steal 3.6 million ETH, worth tens of millions of dollars at the time.
The market panicked, and the coin price was halved. The community erupted in a huge debate: since blockchain pursues immutability, should there be a hard fork to roll back transactions and recover losses?
After the debate, the vast majority chose a hard fork to recover the stolen assets, which also split off Ethereum Classic (ETC).
This was Ethereum’s darkest hour, with widespread pessimism and many declaring the project dead, but the community survived the governance crisis and lived on.
3. First Boom: ICO Bubble, Instant Fame (2017)
The ERC-20 token standard was born, countless new projects issued tokens on Ethereum, and the ICO wave swept the entire crypto market.
ETH surged from single digits, firmly establishing itself as the second largest cryptocurrency.
But the bubble burst quickly. The 2018 bear market arrived, countless ICO projects went to zero, ETH plummeted 90% from its peak, network congestion and high Gas fees were magnified, and criticism flooded back.
4. Bear Market Consolidation: Bubble Fades, Real Ecosystem Begins to Grow (2018-2020)
The bull market bubble faded, speculative funds left, and developers stayed to focus on building.
DeFi began to sprout, with lending and decentralized exchanges gradually launching; NFT standards took shape.
Outsiders still complained about Ethereum’s slowness and high fees, but the underlying infrastructure quietly iterated, preparing for the next big market cycle.
5. Two Major Narratives Ignite, Reaching Historic Highlights (2020-2021)
1. DeFi Summer: lending, swaps, and liquidity mining exploded, with massive capital flowing on-chain;
2. NFT wave: CryptoKitties and profile picture NFTs went viral, bringing Ethereum into the public eye.
EIP-1559 launched, implementing a fee-burning mechanism, giving ETH deflationary properties, and the price hit an all-time high of $4,878.
6. Epic Upgrade: The Merge, Completing the Transition from Mining to Staking (2022)
After years of work, The Merge was completed, bidding farewell to GPU mining and switching to PoS staking consensus, reducing energy consumption by 99%, sharply shrinking ETH issuance, and officially forming the deflation narrative.
The upgrade process was not smooth, with multiple delays and strong opposition from miners, but it was implemented under great pressure. Subsequent Cancun upgrades pushed Layer 2 scaling, solving the long-standing high fee problem.
7. Review: Ethereum’s Comeback and Lessons for Ordinary People
1. There are no eternal gods; even great projects have faced death multiple times. ETH endured hacker attacks, bear market crashes, and upgrade delays, not rising smoothly but surviving crisis after crisis.
2. True value comes from the ecosystem, not mere hype stories. Its strength lies in DeFi, NFT, stablecoins, Layer 2, and thousands of developers continuously building together, not a single concept.
3. Bull markets are results, not starting points. The surges in 2017 and 2021 came from years of technical consolidation during bear markets. Many only see the later glory and ignore the long early struggles when no one cared.
4. Technical roadmaps won’t be smooth; upgrades will be delayed and controversial. Focus on long-term implementation results, don’t be scared off by short-term negatives or blindly brainwashed by hype.
ETH’s current status did not come out of nowhere. It shows us: sector narratives are important, but the underlying logic of long-term comebacks is surviving crises, continuous iteration, and ecosystem growth.
$ETH #Ethereum #Web3 🪐 BTC In-Depth Review · August 20th 📊
1. Today's Market 📈 BTC price around $71,690, 24h +10.46%, rising $7,631 from yesterday's $64,339, marking the largest single-day gain recently. Market sentiment index quickly shifted from extreme fear to greed 🥩→🤑
2. Volatility Attribution 🧐
1. Improved liquidity environment: U.S. Treasury expanded bond repurchase, U.S. bond yields fell, risk assets overall gained liquidity premium
2. Institutional re-entry: Spot ETFs saw multiple consecutive days of net inflows, with nearly $487 million net inflow in a single recent day, restoring institutional confidence 🏦
3. Regulatory expectations warming: Washington signaled a more supportive regulatory framework, risk appetite rebounded 🏛️
4. Leverage liquidation cascade: 170,000 liquidations / $2.9 billion across the network in 24h, short positions forced to close further pushed prices up 💥
3. Technical Structure 🔍
Key support: $65,000 (200-day moving average around $69,138 has been reclaimed, mid-term structure turning bullish) 🟢
Key resistance: $72,000 round number, if daily candle closes above effectively, upside space opens 🟡
RSI: daily 63, short-term 78, momentum strong but nearing overbought
MACD: daily golden cross, bullish alignment ✅ #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议
The CLARITY Act is progressing, but the stablecoin reward mechanism has become one of the biggest points of contention between the banking industry and the crypto sector.
Banking organizations such as the American Bankers Association (ABA) have recently expressed support for establishing a digital asset regulatory framework but hope to amend stablecoin-related provisions to prevent stablecoin platforms from attracting users to hold funds long-term through interest-like rewards.
The banking industry is concerned that this could lead to deposits flowing from the traditional banking system to crypto platforms, affecting banks' lending capabilities.
Simply put, the current debate is not about "whether stablecoins should develop," but rather:
Will stablecoins in the future be merely a payment tool, or will they become a new form of deposit competition?
If a user puts dollars in a bank, they can earn returns; if they convert dollars into stablecoins, they can also earn similar returns through platforms, so naturally, funds will flow where efficiency is higher.
This is the biggest concern for banks.
From another perspective, the crypto industry believes that the greatest potential of stablecoins lies in their ability to connect payments, financial applications, and on-chain ecosystems. Excessive restrictions could slow down digital asset innovation.
The key point here is that this is no longer a simple regulatory issue but a competition for entry into the financial system.
For decades, banks have controlled funds through deposits and influenced economic cycles through lending.
If stablecoins become an important carrier of the global digital dollar in the future, the way funds flow may change. $PEOPLE short-term long, go for it,
Don't interpret this wave of PEOPLE's rise as value discovery.
After the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, long-end yields and the dollar fell, BTC led risk assets to reprice; PEOPLE just amplified this risk appetite.
The market is not contradictory: the trend is upward, funding rates are not overheated, but the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI have both crossed 70, and about 78% of large holders are long. For me, it is now a trend that can be tracked, not a new narrative to believe in long-term.
Close above 0.00880, target 0.00920—0.00955; stop loss if it breaks below 0.00810. Looking back at the data from three bull and bear cycles, a very realistic change can be seen: the explosive multiplier of bull markets is shrinking with each cycle.
In the 2017 bull market, BTC surged up to 124 times, and ETH even reached a 236-fold increase. After the feast ended, both experienced deep corrections of 83% and 94%, respectively.
By the 2021 cycle, the expansion strength had clearly cooled down. BTC rose 21 times from the previous historical high, and ETH recorded a 121-fold increase. During the subsequent correction phase, both simultaneously dropped 82%.
Looking ahead to the 2025 cycle, the difference becomes even more intuitive. BTC only multiplied 8.1 times compared to the previous high, and ETH barely refreshed its all-time high with a 5.6-fold increase; in the following correction, BTC fell 53%, and ETH's maximum drop was 70%.
It is obvious that both the profit space during bull market rises and the severity of declines in bear markets are gradually converging.
Don't stick to fixed thinking, firmly believing that BTC and ETH must fall to some fixed point to be considered a true bottom.
To be honest, in the last cycle, I did not exit ETH at its highest point, not because I subjectively believed it could continue to rise
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元
#银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 Guys, let me tell you something. Today, FIL picked up and rose more than 8 points in a single day. Although the highest was only $0.7—something no one would have paid attention to a few months ago—this rebound has indeed revived the previously lifeless community a bit. After all, it's dropped nearly 99% from its historical high—even catching your breath feels like celebrating the New Year. Many people say FIL is a "dead coin," but I don't fully agree—to be precise, it's quietly stirring things up. Several noteworthy new developments: First, the Solstice proposal (FIP-0118), the largest reward mechanism reform since Filecoin's launch. Simply put, it means no longer engaging in complex audits of "verified data," treating all storage providers equally. And for the first time, rewards were given to "customer recruiters" at the protocol layer—whoever brought paying customers to the network would receive a share of the block rewards. Simply put, it's about shifting from "farming data for rewards" to "making money by doing business." Second, the FOC mainnet goes live, packaging storage, verification, and payment into a single service layer. The number of development projects built on Filecoin tripled within a year. Third, the first halving in October this year, with block rewards cut from 32 to 16, and the annual inflation rate plunging from 21% to below 7%. One more thing: do you know how much global enterprise SSD prices rose in the first quarter? 80%。 AI companies compete for computing power, data centers compete for hard drives, and prices have already gone crazy. However, Filecoin's storage costs are not affected by this price increase, as it uses a distributed network. This is possibleU.S. stock market opens with all three major indexes down, SK Hynix rises 5% against the trend: Is capital only clustering in energy and chips?
After the U.S. market opened, it continued to weaken, with the Dow down 0.66%, the Nasdaq 100 down 0.47%, and the S&P 500 down 0.30%.
There are 917 stocks rising and 1,695 stocks falling, with a rise-to-fall ratio of only 0.54, indicating the actual market breadth is weaker than the index decline.
Chip stocks are relatively resilient, with SK Hynix up 5.09%, Micron up 1.99%, TSMC up 1.12%, Broadcom up 1%, and Nvidia only slightly up 0.19%.
On the other hand, Walmart plunged 9.21%, SpaceX fell 4.65%, Tesla dropped 3.25%, and Amazon declined 1.54%.
By sector, crude oil rose 1.79%, driving the energy sector up 1.53%; semiconductors rose 0.86%.
Essential consumer retail fell 5.57%, while telecom, automotive, and durable goods sectors all dropped more than 2%.
It seems tonight is not a full-blown panic but a rapid contraction of capital focus, concentrating on energy and chips.
The indexes did not fall much, but nearly 70% of stocks declined, indicating significant internal market instability.
If market breadth cannot recover later, it is advisable to observe the rise of individual strong stocks with small positions for testing; it is not suitable to blindly chase highs with large positions.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 Over the past two days, the crypto market has experienced a historic violent rally. From August 19 to 20, BTC started around $64,000, broke through layers of resistance, and reached a high of $72,500. At the time of writing, BTC was fluctuating above $72,000, with a 24-hour gain of over 11%, marking the largest single-day gain since March 2025. ETH surged simultaneously, reaching a high of $2,335, with a 24-hour increase close to 20%. Crypto concept stocks surged collectively: Strategy surged 11.95%, Coinbase rose 9.05%, and Circle and BitMine each gained nearly 10%. The most eye-catching data from this round of market activity comes from the derivatives market. In the past 24 hours, over 170,000 people worldwide have been liquidated, with the total liquidation amount approaching $3.3 billion. Among them, short liquidations exceeded 3 billion USD, while long liquidations were only about 250 million USD, with a short to long liquidation ratio exceeding 10 to 1. The largest single liquidation occurred on the Hyperliquid platform, with a BTC-USD perpetual contract valued at $48.8 million. This short liquidation scale is the largest in history since records began in 2021. What drives all this is the resonance of three forces within the same time window. The Treasury's Move: Becent Reveals His Trump Card. The most direct trigger for this surge came from an announcement from the U.S. Treasury Department. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury liquidity support repurchase operations, in a single operation#BTC breaks through 71,500! But what really makes me anxious isn't missing out, it's not knowing when to exit#
BTC has broken through 71,500. ETH has risen above 2,280. Three days ago it was still at 64,000, now it’s directly at 71,500. Honestly, this speed is a bit scary.
People without positions are anxious, afraid of missing out. Those holding positions are also anxious, not knowing when to exit.
I belong to the latter.
I have ETH and BTC in hand, and the profits are already considerable. But I’ve started to feel anxious. Because I’ve experienced too many times the scenario of "not exiting when prices rise, reluctant to exit when prices fall, and eventually losing all profits."
📊 What to do next?
At this point in the market, it has already exceeded most people’s expectations. Now there are only two possible paths:
Either continue to surge, with BTC reaching 73,000-75,000, ETH reaching 2,400-2,500.
Or pull back, with BTC retesting 70,000-71,000, ETH retesting 2,200-2,250.
I don’t know which one it will be. So the only thing I can do is: move the stop loss. Raise the stop loss above the cost basis to ensure this wave of profits won’t be fully given back.
Missing out doesn’t lose money, but giving back profits makes people question their life choices.
💬 Let’s chat in the comments:
Did you hold positions or miss out on this wave? When are you planning to exit? 🫡
$BTC $ETH $SOL Regulatory rules reshape the compliance path through self-certification logic, but incremental capital entry still faces post-hoc challenge rights from the SEC and liquidity restructuring conflicts caused by token airdrops being included in fundraising caps.
The administrative regulatory draft improves institutional capital's discount expectations on policy uncertainty, with marginal risk appetite rebounding. The $5 million startup cap and $75 million annual exemption limit establish the funding scale boundaries for compliant domestic issuance, forcing market makers and project parties to readjust their chip allocation strategies.
The driving factors in order are: the certainty of compliance safe harbor implementation, changes in chip release rhythm after non-cash distributions are counted towards the quota, and congressional legislative struggles suppressing the willingness of U.S.-based institutions to increase positions. Including airdrops in fundraising caps will directly limit the market-making model that raises funds through high-valuation large airdrops, pushing up liquidity discounts in the primary market.
The bullish scenario is based on the assumption that the $75 million exemption quota is quickly absorbed by leading domestic projects and the risk of declaration accountability is controllable. If U.S.-based institutions show continuous net buying of custody positions within 7 days and large projects shift to compliant self-certified issuance, market risk appetite will turn from wait-and-see to premium buying, driving the valuation center of mature tokens with clear revenue streams upward. The invalidation signal for this scenario is the regulator exercising post-hoc veto rights over the first batch of declared projects.
The bearish scenario stems from the legal sword of Damocles effect caused by post-hoc challenge rights and ecosystem contraction triggered by airdrop limits. If market makers suspend market-making due to valuation ambiguity from non-cash distributions, or if September congressional voting resistance causes regulatory splits, leveraged funds will quickly withdraw from high-airdrop expectation sectors. The trigger observation variables for this scenario are the simultaneous decline in on-chain large transfer frequency and decentralized protocol lock-up volume, with the invalidation signal being the Senate passing administrative supporting legislation ahead of schedule.
The self-certification mechanism does not completely eliminate regulatory retrospective risk; responsibility concentrates on issuers, forcing early and mid-stage project teams to extend their chip selling cycles. Only when project teams publicly commit to clearing and compliance costs are lower than $5 million in financing gains do institutions have the conditions to firmly build long-term spot positions.
The most critical observation variables in the next 7 days are the concentration of public comment opinions subsequently released by the three committee members who voted in favor, and the changes in spot net flows of U.S.-compliant custody institutions after disclosure of the $75 million quota details.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？Alibaba (BABA) Q1 revenue 268.9 billion +9%, but operating profit plummeted 57%, pre-market in US stocks down over 4%.
The main reason is a 75% surge in capital expenditure to 67.7 billion, focusing heavily on AI cloud and computing power (related revenue +45%, AI products have seen triple-digit growth for 12 consecutive quarters). Free cash flow net outflow expanded. Short-term profit is under pressure, but AI investment is accelerating, with long-term growth potential.2026.8.20 Evening Market Analysis Summary
Thursday evening's market was like a completely different world compared to yesterday—the top eight cryptocurrencies all surged dramatically, with the market shifting directly from a "stock competition" to a "short squeeze frenzy."
$BTC is around $71,700 today, up over 11% in 24 hours. It violently surged from $64,000 to $72,000, completing the market's shift from "extreme suppression" to "euphoric sentiment." However, the $72,000-$75,000 range is a major technical resistance zone, with the first support below at $68,200-$67,200. If this support breaks, the market will retest the previous consolidation range. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI have entered the extreme overbought zone above 85; after such a sharp rise, a pullback is usually needed to digest profit-taking.
$ETH is the brightest star today, around $2,276, surging 18.75% in a single day, marking the largest daily gain in months. Ethereum leads this rally, outperforming Bitcoin significantly—but it also faces pressure for a correction after being overbought.
$SOL showed strength today at $87.25, up 12.95%. It broke out from the frustrating $74-$77 consolidation box and is pushing toward the $90 mark.
$XRP* finally broke free from the $1 tug-of-war, reaching $1.15, up 14.45%. Whale trading volume surged alongside the overall market, finally pushing the 50-day and 200-day moving averages beneath it.
$DOGE has finally awakened from its $0.07 stagnation, at $0.0766, up 9.47%. After the Bollinger Bands narrowed to the tightest in three years, it has finally chosen a direction.
$BNB returned to around $642, up 6.68%, supported by short-term moving averages pushing upward.
$ADA rose 8.62% to $0.189, boosted by the hard fork plan announcement combined with the overall market rally. LINK is around $10.70, up about 1.42%, finally overcoming the $9.5-$10 hurdle.
ETF data is impressively strong—Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $517.2 million in a single day, the highest since May 4. BlackRock's IBIT alone contributed $284.7 million; Ethereum ETFs also performed well with a $189.15 million net inflow, marking a nine-month single-day high. Real money is flowing in, and the market rally confirms this—the broad surge is the best proof.
The core driver is an epic short squeeze. Over $2.7 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for over 90%, systematically cleared in the $65k-$68.5k range. The Fear and Greed Index jumped overnight from 46 to 62, leaping directly from "fear" into "greed"—this intense sentiment reversal is a classic sign of a short squeeze.
Macro factors also shifted—the 30-year US Treasury yield briefly broke 5.33%, a 19-year high, before retreating to around 5.18% by the close. The US Treasury announced a significant increase in long-term bond repurchase scale (at least doubling), Trump met with crypto industry executives, and the SEC plans to relax token registration exemptions. Multiple positive factors combined to ignite this short squeeze rally.
But don't get too excited yet—Coinbase's premium index remains negative, indicating that demand in the US spot market has not meaningfully returned. This rally is mainly driven by leverage (short squeeze), not spot buying support. Glassnode's on-chain warning: on-chain data remains in a "capitulation phase," and until the realized profit-loss ratio indicator breaks above 2 again, any rebound should be viewed as a local bounce rather than a fundamental market trend reversal.
Overall, Bitcoin and altcoins are flying together—a typical short squeeze rally. ETF data looks good, prices have followed, but chasing the top carries huge risks. $70,000 is the focal point for short-term bulls and bears. A wiser approach is to patiently wait for a pullback to around $68,500 with reduced volume and stabilization before considering low-risk long positions. In the face of extreme sentiment and leverage, risk control is paramount. This market either doesn't come, or when it does, it hits like a thunderbolt—but how far it can go depends on when spot buying truly catches up.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ I'll start with the conclusion: I believe it is still too early to confirm a new cycle, but a very important cycle shift signal has already appeared. As of 22:35 on August 20 (Singapore time), $BTC has quickly risen from the $63K–65K range of the past few days to around $71K, with a cumulative increase of over 10% in two days. At the same time, ETH has also climbed back above $2,200. More importantly, on August 19, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $517 million, and the ETH ETF had a net inflow of about $189 million, indicating that this rise is not entirely driven by retail sentiment. The current chain of events has started to look like this: BTC breaks through $65K → breaks through $68K → breaks through $70K → ETF funds flow back in → large-scale short liquidations → ETH follows the rally → high Beta assets like SOL begin to activate. This is indeed a different state from the previous simple oscillating rebound. But the question arises: Does this mean the four-year cycle has restarted? I actually think it shouldn't be understood that way. The past BTC cycle was very simple: halving → supply reduction → capital inflow → bull market → peak → bear market → accumulation again. But now BTC has completely changed. After institutions, ETFs, corporate holdings, and even government-related funds have entered, the market's marginal buyers are no longer just miners and retail investors. Fidelity even believes that as the BTC market scale and liquidity expand, the extreme four-year cycle of the past... #ETH surges strongly, short positions liquidated over $1.1 billion ETH sees a strong rebound, with a 24-hour increase far exceeding BTC. The market rally triggered a chain short squeeze, with total short liquidations across the market surpassing $1.1 billion. Ethereum short positions account for nearly 40% of the liquidation volume, and short-term buying has created a positive feedback loop driving the price higher.
This round of gains is driven by three converging bullish factors. On the policy front, the White House crypto summit sent a major signal: the U.S. government is considering a large-scale BTC strategic reserve and simultaneously advancing crypto compliance legislation. Industry regulation expectations have significantly eased, and institutional risk appetite has fully recovered. On the macro level, the U.S. Treasury has increased long-term Treasury repurchases, causing long-term yields to fall rapidly, easing valuation pressure on high-valued crypto assets, while a weaker dollar further benefits digital assets. On the funding side, spot ETH ETFs continue to see net inflows, combined with a large accumulation of short positions betting on a pullback. After the price broke key resistance, a series of forced liquidations were triggered, with shorts forced to cover, further amplifying the rally and creating a classic short squeeze scenario. Much of this rally’s momentum comes from short liquidations; after passive buying subsides, there is a lack of new capital to sustain it. The Fed’s FOMC internal disagreements on rate hikes remain unresolved; if inflation data rebounds, rising Treasury yields could suppress ETH’s performance. Meanwhile, the rapid short-term gains have led to a large buildup of short-term profit-taking positions.
The logic of U.S. crypto-friendly policies and ongoing institutional ETH accumulation remains intact, so after digesting floating profits through consolidation, there is still room to rise; however, short-term caution is needed for technical pullback risks after the liquidation wave ends $BTC $ETH $SOL Yesterday's salary was only 9u😭, but it's okay to be content and happy, still grateful to okx!
Let's talk about today, $BTC spot orders hit 70000, from 63000 to 70000 was quite comfortable. Unfortunately, I didn't use leverage. Today the highest touched 72000, opened a 50x short position, took a small profit, not bad.
$ETH I shorted last night, entered at 2180 with a stop loss at 2240. Luckily I set a stop loss, yesterday it surged to 2340 and almost blew me out! I always thought hitting over 2300 overnight was unlikely, thankfully I set the stop loss, very lucky. It’s scary to think about, so always set stop losses! Don’t sleep carelessly on high-leverage trades without stop losses😪
$SNDK MU Micron SKHYNIX Hynix, talking about these three storage stocks together, today saw a slight rise, stabilizing the trend and no longer falling for now. My view on this sector remains the same, there should be another wave of gains, but there will be some volatile grinding in between. If you can’t hold, you can exit first. I’m still bullish.
Today's OKB and BNB are definitely worth mentioning, BNB rose more than 5%! OKB rose less today since it already gained some yesterday, but still kept up, breaking above 105. Didn’t expect it to be so strong, missed the rhythm, was thinking of dollar-cost averaging on a pullback, but it rallied instead. Can’t argue with that. Will watch for a pullback later!
Today the US stock market was mostly down, with the S&P and Nasdaq slightly retreating. The US market has been high for too long, plus storage weakening, a drop is healthier. Both technical and sentiment aspects need a correction. I think shorting QQQ is an opportunity! You can open positions above 720 points. Short-term top estimated around 740-750, but might not reach that. Mid-short term target is 660 points!
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Compliance is diverging, not unifying
Many people see the delay of CLARITY as a negative for the entire industry, but they fail to see that the split is already happening: BTC is unaffected because it has no project team that needs regulatory definition; ETH benefits indirectly because the settlement demand for stablecoins and RWA will only increase; but most altcoins are stuck in the gray area of "whether they are securities" and cannot move. The same regulatory chaos means completely different situations for different assets. Capital diversion has already begun; it is not "the crypto market is falling," but "those who chose the wrong assets are falling." When regulatory uncertainty becomes the norm, the "regulatory immunity" of the asset itself becomes the core premium factor in pricing. BTC's premium comes from "no explanation needed," ETH's premium comes from "already proven," and altcoins' discount comes from "awaiting judgment." The divergence in the performance of these three types of assets over the next 6 to 12 months will be more extreme than most people imagine. Institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity have accelerated the promotion of BTC ETFs after CLARITY stalled because they understand: for compliance departments, BTC is the only crypto asset that does not require a legal opinion, and this "regulatory whitelist" status itself is the rarest moat.Minutes 9 to 3, three want a rate hike! $BTC just broke 71,000, is there a knife hanging over its head? #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
I went through this minutes from start to finish tonight to tell you some truths.
Numbers first:
July FOMC 9 to 3 to maintain 3.50%–3.75%, fifth consecutive hold
Three dissenting votes: Harker, Kashkari, Logan, all want a 25bp hike — first time since 2016 three dissenters aligned in the same direction
CME pricing for September: no change 67.3%, hike 32.7%
30-year US Treasury yield 5.28%
But don’t just look at the vote, here are three coded phrases from the minutes by Lao Zhou:
① "Several" support a rate hike — more than those three. The original wording in the minutes is "Several," meaning the three dissenters are just the obvious ones; under the table, there are more supporting a hike. Even the Fed’s press office confirmed this.
② "Many" left a door open. Many participants clearly said: if inflation doesn’t come down, tightening must continue. Holding steady ≠ no hike, this is a hook left for September.
③ First time naming financial stability risks. The minutes explicitly state: vulnerabilities in AI infrastructure financing, AI stock overvaluation — if the market lowers earnings expectations for AI, it could trigger broad asset price repricing, which then transmits to financial institutions. Plus, two officials discussed volatility in the US Treasury market. Official Fed stamp: AI valuation is a systemic risk.
So why does the market still dare to bet 67% on holding steady? Because the data saved the day:
• July CPI year-over-year 3.4%, cooling down
• July nonfarm payrolls -23,000, turned negative
• Rate hike expectations dropped from 63% at end of July to 32.7%
But the old hand slams the table to emphasize: the biggest risk isn’t a September hike, it’s "the market hiking itself."
Look at three numbers, all pulled today from neodata:
• Oracle CDS soared to 217.9bp, a historic high — free cash flow turned negative, downgraded by S&P to BBB-, AI giants are no longer favored in the bond market
• AI bonds issued $236 billion by end of May, +357% year-over-year — cloud giants issued $159 billion in bonds in one year, Morgan Stanley says the full year will hit $570 billion, AI is draining long-term funds crazily
• Momentum stocks and AI stocks 30-day correlation 0.93 — highest since 2020, when AI falls, quant funds collectively dump in the same direction
This is called structural bearishness: not the Fed’s rate hike knife, but a noose formed by long-term rates + AI valuation + credit spreads.
What about $BTC? It just broke 71,000 today — weak dollar + falling rate hike expectations theoretically benefit it. But listen to Lao Zhou: BTC can be independent of US Treasury rallies, but not of US Treasury crashes. If 10-year Treasury hits 5%, 30-year stands above 5.4%, the "broad repricing" named in the minutes will come, and BTC’s short squeeze rally will also be left out in the cold.
Watch four signals, everything else is noise:
August CPI / Nonfarm — inflation rebound or employment bounce, September hike probability instantly takes off from 32.7%
Jackson Hole — Powell’s tone, hawk-dove power struggle
30-year Treasury 5.4% — breaking this is the liquidation bell for AI overvaluation sectors
Oracle-like cloud vendor CDS — will AI credit system continue to deteriorate or stabilize
With the data laid out like this, the Fed is holding the knife but not cutting, the market is trembling first, what’s your take?
#美联储 #FOMC #美债收益率 #AI估值 #BTC#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
Tonight belongs to a macro liquidity-driven risk asset broad rally: US Treasury yields fall, US tech stocks (SanDisk), Bitcoin, and gold all strengthen together.
• SanDisk is driven by both industry fundamentals and macro factors; Bitcoin is more driven by macro liquidity, policy sentiment, and leveraged liquidation.
• Differences:
◦ SanDisk: follows the storage industry cycle, with earnings reports and chip pricing having a big impact.
◦ Bitcoin: is much more sensitive to US Treasury yields, the US dollar, and regulatory news than ordinary US stocks.
Key variables to watch going forward:
1. Whether long-term US Treasury yields will rebound again (if yields rebound, both are likely to come under pressure)
2. Subsequent US economic data, which may change the Fed's rate cut expectations
3. Whether crypto regulatory news will be realized, or if it is just speculative hype; when news materializes, it is easy to "buy the rumor, sell the fact"
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $APR APR this short at 0.197, 20x leverage, now at 0.185, floating profit 115%. Not because of its DeFi label, but the 1-hour chart is already very clear: it has broken above 0.227 and 0.21, but each high is lower than the last, and it repeatedly fails to hold above around 0.20, with volume shrinking accordingly, indicating that chasing funds are retreating and profit-taking is gradually happening.
Currently, the price is around 0.185, with 0.1811 as the intraday low, and below that 0.1719 is the previous jump zone. As long as it bounces back to 0.19-0.20 without volume, the short logic remains; if it reclaims 0.20 and breaks the high at 0.209, then it’s not a weak pullback but a short squeeze.
It has dropped over 60 points in 7 days. Don’t be fooled by “90-day/180-day still positive” for this new coin; short-term cycles reflect current capital sentiment. I won’t stubbornly hold 20x as faith either; floating profit is a buffer. Near 0.18, first watch for support—if weak, continue watching; if strong, take profit. #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
The market is always more honest than stories. Going forward, keep watching capital flow and the quality of pullbacks. $ETH $SNDK Regarding stablecoin $USDC, I think many people might be focusing on the wrong point.
People are used to watching coin price fluctuations, but what truly changes the industry landscape is often not the K-line, but a regulatory license.
The GENIUS Act is like building a highway.
Previously, the crypto industry was like many cars driving on a road without rules, moving fast, but no one knew where they could drive or where speed limits might suddenly appear.
What the U.S. wants to do now is to first set the traffic rules.
If compliant stablecoins start to get approved in the future, banks, payment companies, and traditional financial institutions might find it easier to enter this field.
But don’t forget, building the road doesn’t mean all vehicles will immediately get on the highway.
The most common market mistake is to see the construction crew arrive and prematurely price as if the highway is already open.
What really matters is not how grand the name of the bill is, but who can be the first to occupy the entry point once the rules are set.
The biggest competition for stablecoins in the future may not be who shouts the loudest, but who has compliance, users, and financial channels.
The next round of infrastructure competition in the crypto industry is not about who runs fastest, but who first obtains the legal qualification to be on the road.$BTC If you have a slight deeper exposure to the banking system, you would not doubt the value of cryptocurrency.
Cryptocurrency claims to be a left-wing narrative but is actually an extremely right-wing financial concept.
Bitcoin was created with an ideal of equality and decentralization, but its actual use is closer to pure financial freedom.
Therefore, the concept of cryptocurrency is closest to Hayek's liberalism. I can't say whether this is good or bad, but cryptocurrency has its meaning and value—when the traditional financial system becomes increasingly closed and regulated, an unregulated alternative system will inevitably emerge. This is a supply and demand relationship, not a moral judgment.
Hayek's 1976 book "The Denationalisation of Money" is almost the theoretical blueprint for Bitcoin. Crypto is Hayekian freedom—but the beneficiaries of this freedom are not "everyone," but a minority with cognitive advantages. It gives everyone the right to participate but does not give everyone the ability to win. $ETH $DOGE #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ U.S. National Debt Surpasses $40 Trillion Threshold, Fiscal "Death Spiral" Quietly Initiates
The scale of U.S. national debt is expanding at an unprecedented pace, having crossed the historic $40 trillion mark. Interest expenses are soaring, and a self-reinforcing debt cycle has quietly begun, while no substantial policy responses have been seen so far.
On August 20, the U.S. Treasury announced that the total federal government debt had surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, with a single-day increase of over $60 billion and approximately $1 trillion added in the past three months. Earlier that same day, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced a significant expansion of liquidity support through repurchase operations for long-term Treasury bonds, doubling at least the support for maturities between 10 and 30 years. This move caused a sharp short-term drop in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, temporarily easing market pressure.
However, this measure was largely interpreted by the market as a short-term patch for the debt crisis rather than a fundamental solution. With interest expenses reaching $1.37 trillion in this fiscal year, a 20% increase compared to the same period last year, the negative feedback loop between debt expansion and rising borrowing costs — known in the market as the "death spiral" — is becoming increasingly evident to investors. Gold and Bitcoin reacted noticeably to this news, both rising.The truly crazy part about this $BTC wave is not breaking through $70K.
It's that the market has started to reprice liquidity.
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations. Following that, BTC accelerated from around $65K and today surged above $72K, gaining over 10% in just two days.
More importantly, shorts began to collectively panic, with a large number of short positions forcibly liquidated, and forced buying further pushed the market higher.
But now there is a detail worth watching:
The 30-year Treasury yield, after a brief pullback, has returned to a high level, indicating that this "liquidity boost" is not unconditionally sustainable.
So the real dividing line between bulls and bears going forward is not $72K.
It is:
Can $70K hold?
Holding above $70K gives the breakout real value.
If it falls back below $70K, beware of a rapid pullback after the short squeeze ends.
BTC is very strong right now.
But the stronger it gets, the more you must remember:
A true trend is not afraid of pullbacks; the real traps tend to appear when everyone starts turning bullish.The overall market rose 7.45%, but $OKB only increased by 3.3%. Exchange tokens underperforming in a bull market—is that acceptable?
1. This wave of OKB's rise is purely beta-driven, with no coin-specific catalysts. The market was pushed up by the Treasury's QE Lite + White House summit, and OKB just followed along. But the correlation with BTC is only 0.19, indicating its linkage with BTC was never strong, so it’s not surprising it can’t rally much.
2. The good news is the supply side is clean. All 21M are in circulation, 100% unlocked, with no inflation pressure. X Layer is promoting RWA incentives, GRVT staking also supports OKB, and the ecosystem is expanding. However, the 24h turnover rate is only 2%, liquidity is thin, and large orders can easily cause dips.
3. $100 is psychological support; if broken, look to $88. The resistance at the recent high of $105 requires volume to break through to be a valid signal.
So overall, OKB is currently in a "bull market follows but underperforms" state. It lacks an independent narrative and relies entirely on the market. Just hold $100 as support and don’t expect it to lead. Consider adding positions only when OKX has major positive news.$BTC
BTC's sharp rise over the past two days has already cleared out a large number of shorts in the market.
What truly deserves caution now is not mindlessly chasing the rally.
Looking at the current leverage distribution, if BTC continues to surge to around $80,000, the shorts that can be liquidated above amount to about $1 billion; but if the market suddenly reverses and falls back to around $64,000, the potential long liquidations below could exceed $4.6 billion.
What does this mean?
The upside looks lively, but the chips available to continue "short squeezes" are not as many as before; on the contrary, the large amount of long leverage piled up below could become the target for capital to harvest in the opposite direction.
So, if BTC breaks above $72,000 or even continues higher, personally I would not choose to chase the rally crazily.
What we fear most now is not that it can't rise, but that after the market sentiment fully FOMOs, the whales suddenly launch a **"counterattack"**.
First, blow out the shorts, then attract retail to chase higher, and finally suddenly dump to liquidate longs—
this is the most classic and also the most painful scenario for high-leverage players.
Therefore, my approach going forward is simple:
Don't chase when it rises, wait and see when it falls; watch the structure on breakouts, look for opportunities on pullbacks.
The easiest time to lose money in a bull market is often not during declines, but when everyone thinks "it can only go up."
Of course, the above is just my personal market view and does not constitute investment advice.#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Gold’s return above $4,500/oz on Aug. 20 looks stronger when viewed through positioning rather than price alone. SPDR Gold Shares added 9.41 tonnes to reach 1,034.65 tonnes, while 53 China-listed gold funds grew by RMB26.8B from the start of the month to RMB424.2B by Aug. 19.
My read: broader fund participation can reinforce the move, but it also raises the cost of disappointment. A weaker dollar, lower Treasury yields and deficit concerns remain supportive; rising long yields or stronger risk appetite would test whether recent demand is durable. Diverging UBS and Wells Fargo forecasts underline how sensitive the outlook remains.
Not advice, just analysis.
#GoldReclaims4500BTC attempted to break through $69,000, but before that, the market had already set its direction. Before the short rally ends, will it test $69,000 first, or will a $66,000 pullback come first? The original article points out BTC's short-term overheating after rising to around $68,000, and suggests a strategy of waiting for a pullback rather than buying chases before confirming the breakout of $69,000. Key levels are selling volume in the $68,500~$69,000 range, support re-entry zone at $66,500~$67,500, and short-term trend invalidation at $65,500. This perspective is not just a simple quote, but rather the judgment that the current price already largely reflects expectations for a short-term rally. The significance of this move lies more in the cross-market delivery structure than in the price itself. The rally for BTC to reach $68,000 appears to have been driven less by spot demand and more by short covering in the futures market and increased leveraged long positions. This indicates that the intensity of price increases is sustained by spot From Hacker Coin Theft to Successful Merge: A Historical Review of Ethereum, Revealing the Victory of Long-Termism
⚠️Content is only a historical review of the sector and does not constitute any investment advice
Many only know ETH as the second largest by market cap, but few realize it has faced multiple near-collapse moments, growing from a whitepaper written by a teenager into the foundational base of the entire Web3. Understanding its ups and downs is more important than simply betting on price movements.
1. Germination: An Undervalued Experimental Project
In 2013, 19-year-old Vitalik wrote the Ethereum whitepaper, proposing the concept of a world computer: Bitcoin could only transfer value, while Ethereum could run smart contracts, enabling blockchain to support various applications.
In 2014, a crowdfunding campaign raised funds by exchanging Bitcoin for ETH. Most of the Bitcoin community was skeptical, thinking the new project was too abstract and overly ambitious.
In July 2015, the mainnet launched with very few early developers. It was just a niche technical experiment without large-scale applications, prices were low, and few recognized its future potential.
2. Life-or-Death Crisis: Hacker Theft in the First Year Nearly Ended It
In 2016, the major security incident of The DAO occurred, where hackers exploited contract vulnerabilities to steal 3.6 million ETH, worth tens of millions of dollars at the time.
The market panicked, and the coin price was halved. The community erupted in a huge debate: since blockchain pursues immutability, should there be a hard fork to roll back transactions and recover losses?
After debate, the vast majority chose a hard fork to retrieve the stolen assets, which also led to the split creating Ethereum Classic (ETC).
This was Ethereum's darkest hour, with widespread pessimism and many declaring the project dead, but the community survived the governance crisis and lived on.
3. First Boom: ICO Bubble, Instant Fame (2017)
The ERC-20 token standard was born, countless new projects issued tokens on Ethereum, and the ICO wave swept the entire crypto market.
ETH surged from single digits, firmly establishing itself as the second largest cryptocurrency.
But the bubble burst quickly. The 2018 bear market arrived, countless ICO projects went to zero, ETH plummeted 90% from its peak, network congestion and high Gas fees were magnified, and criticism flooded back.
4. Bear Market Consolidation: Bubble Fades, Real Ecosystem Growth Begins (2018-2020)
The bull market bubble faded, speculative funds left, and developers stayed to build.
DeFi began to sprout, with lending and decentralized exchanges launching; NFT standards took shape.
Outsiders still complained about Ethereum’s slowness and high fees, but the underlying infrastructure quietly iterated, preparing for the next big rally.
5. Two Major Narratives Ignite, Leading to Historic Highlights (2020-2021)
1. DeFi Summer: lending, swaps, and liquidity mining exploded, with massive capital flowing on-chain;
2. NFT wave: CryptoKitties and profile picture NFTs went viral, bringing Ethereum into the public eye.
EIP-1559 launched, implementing fee burning, giving ETH deflationary properties, and the price hit a historic high of $4,878.
6. Epic Upgrade: The Merge, Completing the Transition from Mining to Staking (2022)
The years-long The Merge was completed, bidding farewell to GPU mining and switching to PoS staking consensus, reducing energy consumption by 99%, sharply shrinking ETH issuance, and officially forming the deflation narrative.
The upgrade process was not smooth, with multiple delays and strong opposition from miners, but it landed under great pressure. Subsequent Cancun upgrades pushed Layer 2 scaling, solving the long-standing high fee problem.
7. Review: Ethereum’s Comeback and Lessons for Ordinary People
1. There is no eternal god; even great projects face multiple near-death experiences. ETH endured hacker attacks, bear market crashes, and upgrade delays, not rising smoothly but surviving crisis after crisis.
2. True value comes from the ecosystem, not mere hype stories. Its strength lies in DeFi, NFT, stablecoins, Layer 2, and thousands of developers continuously building together, not a single concept.
3. Bull markets are results, not starting points. The surges in 2017 and 2021 came from years of technical consolidation during bear markets. Many only see the later glory and ignore the long early period of obscurity.
4. Technical roadmaps won’t be smooth; upgrades will be delayed and controversial. Focus on long-term implementation results, don’t be scared off by short-term negatives or blindly brainwashed by hype.
ETH’s current status did not come out of nowhere. It shows us: sector narratives are important, but the underlying logic of long-term comeback is surviving crises, continuous iteration, and ecosystem growth.
$ETH #Ethereum #Web3 Recently, staying up late to trade US stocks has seriously harmed my health, directly causing high blood pressure. I took a day off today, but with such big market changes, once the market opens, I still have to get back to work. After a day, more information has been disclosed, and the situation has become clearer. Setting aside the sudden interference factor of Bitcoin's sudden rise, the logic of oil prices rising while US stocks fall is very consistent, and it seems oil prices have not yet peaked. So even if Trump intends to keep the US stock market stable during the midterm elections, it doesn't mean the market will keep rising without turning back. At most, the overall trend can be kept upward until the midterm elections in November. If a black swan event occurs, there will be market rescue, but bulldozer-style continuous rises are neither realistic nor in his personal interest. Assuming Trump, Bessent, and Walsh are now cooperating closely without any grudges or information gaps. Assuming they plan to raise interest rates in September, then Bessent's doubling of repurchases yesterday changes from a signal of easing to a prerequisite for rate hikes. Bessent must first suppress long-term interest rates through doubled repurchases to create external conditions for Walsh to raise rates and suppress short-term interest rates. The rate hike is to recharge the Federal Reserve's credibility and is a necessary measure to maintain interest rate differentials when allies generally raise rates. Moreover, the execution details of the doubled repurchases also contain clues about the rate hikes: effective on September 9, then increased again on November 4; one just before the September FOMC, the other the day after the November midterm election vote. This also explains why Bessent was eager to have the Federal Reserve raise the FIMA limit in early August: once the Fed raises rates, the US-Japan interest rate spread widens, and the USD/JPY returns to 16 Is a Bitcoin ETF really expensive? Let's calculate the holding cost over ten years. Every week, the market sees news about Bitcoin ETF fund flows: hundreds of millions of dollars flowing in or out, institutional increases, university endowments disclosing holdings... These numbers easily become market focal points. But for ordinary investors, there's a more practical question worth focusing on: What is the actual cost of buying a Bitcoin ETF? Many people first look only at the fund fee rates, such as 0.20%, 0.25%, or 1.50%. However, if the holding period extends to 5 or 10 years, the factors truly affecting the final returns are not just management fees, but also compound interest effects, tracking errors, bid-ask spreads, tax treatment, and opportunity costs compared to self-custody. In other words, the ETF's "fee rate" is just the first line on the cost sheet, not the final answer. Fee rates may be just a few basis points, but after ten years, the difference could amount to tens of thousands of dollars. Currently, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. market have formed a relatively clear tier of fee rates. Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust's public fee rate is about 0.15%, classified as a low-fee product; Franklin Templeton EZBC is about 0.19%, Bitwise BITB and VanEck HODL about 0.20%, ARK 21Shares ARKB about 0.21%. BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC have fee rates of 0.25%. What is truly special is That recent lower shadow candle made my hand tremble a bit✨ Have you ever wondered why, despite such scary liquidation data, the price can still bounce back like this? Let me start with a cold hard fact: in the past twelve hours, $970 million worth of short positions on Ethereum were liquidated, and Bitcoin's was even more extreme, with $1.35 billion evaporated instantly. But what really sent chills down my spine was another number—the corresponding buy orders: ETH had only a bit over 8,000, and BTC didn't even reach 5,000. What does this mean? It means the market's rebound isn't driven by new buying pressure, but rather shorts stepping on their own feet. This kind of rebound is essentially a chain reaction of short covering, a forced liquidation at the leverage level, not a signal of massive new capital entering. My own feeling is that this market now resembles a tightly stretched rubber band—the harder you pull in one direction, the more irrationally it snaps back. I witnessed someone open a short just a minute ago, and the next second they were completely wiped out, not even having time to set a stop loss. Now everyone is saying that the US stance on crypto has softened, claiming the regulatory battles are over and the industry is entering a golden growth period. But I prefer to focus on another question: why can't BTC break above around 70,000? If all the bad news has truly been cleared, if institutions are really accumulating aggressively, this resistance shouldn't be so stubborn. My understanding is that the core of current market trading is not fundamentals, but expectation gaps. Everyone assumes #BTC breaks through $72,000, can this rally continue?
$BTC's surge past 72,000 was directly driven by a massive short squeeze—187,000 liquidations in 24 hours, with over $3.4 billion in short positions closed. The price was pushed up by forced buying. This kind of breakout is intense, but how long it can last is questionable.
On the macro side, there is support: US Treasury repos weakened the dollar, and since August, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net inflow of $1.48 billion, indicating institutional activity. Technically, 72,000 is right at the 200-day moving average resistance, and the RSI has reached 85, signaling short-term overheating. If the 68,000 support level fails, this breakout needs to be reassessed.
Next, watch two things: whether the price can hold above 72,000, and whether ETF funds continue to flow in. These two factors are more telling than the price movement itself.
The market carries risks; the above does not constitute investment advice. ① Nasdaq Composite Index Current Market: On August 19 (Wednesday) Eastern Time, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 41.38 points, an increase of 0.16%, closing at 26,331.09 points. The previously pressured U.S. stock market has somewhat stabilized after several consecutive trading days. Driving Factors: U.S. Treasury yields fell. The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields to decline significantly — the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 6 basis points to 4.65%, and the 30-year yield fell 8.9 basis points to 5.195%. Retail companies' earnings exceeded expectations. Some large retail companies reported earnings above expectations, boosting sentiment in the consumer sector. Federal Reserve meeting minutes released. The July meeting minutes showed clear divisions among officials regarding inflation and policy outlook — some officials support further tightening, while most believe the direction should continue to be data-dependent. Sector Performance: Among the eleven major sectors of the S&P 500, seven rose and four fell, with the healthcare sector leading gains at 3.52%. The technology sector fell 0.73%, with semiconductor and memory chip stocks still under pressure. Summary: After consecutive declines, the Nasdaq slightly stabilized and rebounded, mainly supported by the drop in U.S. Treasury yields. However, the technology and semiconductor sectors still face pressure, with the continued weakness in memory chip stocks being a significant drag. ② Dow Jones Industrial Average Current Market: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 119.65 points on Wednesday, an increase of 0.22%, closing at 53,463.05 points. The S&P 500 index rose 16.22 points, an increase of 0.21%, Current BTC market situation, I still have remaining positions personally, and I plan to prepare two strategies:
(1) STH-RP right-side confirmation: If BTC can hold above the short-term holder real cost price STH-RP, then follow the trend on the right side.
(2) After recently backtesting various data models, the reason I still have 40% of my position unfilled is that I can't let go of the traditional four-year halving cycle in my heart: in past halving cycles, the MVRV trend clearly overlapped. Currently, August 23 to the end of August is an important observation window. If BTC does not show a significant pullback during this period, it indicates that this cycle is deviating from the traditional four-year cycle structure.
(3) Another important reason is that in the traditional four-year cycle, the time from top to bottom is basically one year. By this calculation, early October would be the BTC bottom. However, now that institutions have entered, the cycle rhythm may really be deviating from the traditional four-year cycle structure. By the end of this year, it will be clear whether this cycle has changed.
(Purely personal crypto trading sharing, not investment advice, all bear their own profits and losses) 🔥Last night's market action, many only noticed the simultaneous rise of US stocks and gold, but the real trigger was the hidden thread of US Treasury bonds.
The 30-year US Treasury yield recently hit a temporary high, prompting global funds to collectively sell long-term US Treasuries—in simple terms, the market cast a big question mark on the US's long-term debt repayment ability. Bonds were smashed, prices fell, yields soared, which is a fatal blow to the US's long-term credit.
The Treasury Department finally couldn't sit still.
They directly intervened: issuing short-term debt financing, repurchasing existing long-term government bonds in the market, forcibly pushing down long-term yields. Once the news broke, the market instantly rallied—US stocks rebounded, gold surged sharply, $BTC led crypto gains, and $ETH violently caught up.
But behind this lies a deeper paradox.
The real solution to the debt problem is to cut fiscal spending. But with midterm elections approaching and rounds of debt ceiling battles, large-scale spending cuts? Politically, that's suicide. So they can only play "debt shuffling"—bury today's landmines for tomorrow, passing risks to the future.
The Fed still talks about balance sheet reduction, maintaining a tightening stance.
But the Treasury's actions effectively signal to the market: if trouble arises, I will bail out. Fiscal discipline? Nonexistent.
This puts the Fed in an extremely awkward position.
On one hand, it must raise rates to fight inflation; on the other, the Treasury forces support for the bond market, making policy independence a joke. The market now has a "conditioned reflex"—whenever it can't hold, someone will backstop. This backstop essentially means disguised money printing, so inflation flames never fully extinguish.
This explains why US stocks and gold can strengthen simultaneously—not because fundamentals improved, but because liquidity expectations returned.
But here, I want to remind about gold.
International gold prices touched around $4500, looking unstoppable. But when converted to RMB, domestic gold prices did not hit new highs simultaneously—a large part of the gains was eaten up by RMB appreciation. The same gold surged in USD terms, but your actual returns are discounted. Keep this in mind.
On the technical side, taking gold daily chart as example (CMX gold continuous contract):
· Structure: Daily chart accelerated wedge after breaking 4300, currently touching the 4500 round number, which coincides with the weekly Fibonacci extension 1.618 level and the upper boundary of the 2024 ascending channel resistance zone.
· Pattern: On 4-hour chart, two consecutive long upper shadows appeared, indicating short-term "rally met resistance," but the lower EMA21 (around 4430) remains intact, trend not broken.
· Cycle: Daily trend still bullish, but smaller cycles (1H/4H) entered overbought divergence zone, RSI above 70 is dulled, MACD red bars start to shorten—this is not a place to chase longs, but a node to observe pullback strength.
· Key levels: Strong resistance above at 4515-4530, breakout opens space to 4600; support at 4460 first, then 4430 (EMA21 + previous top-bottom flip). If pullback to 4430 holds, it's a right-side long entry opportunity; if volume breaks below 4460 and fails to rebound, short-term correction begins.
· Rule: Follow trend but don't chase highs. Reduce position or move stop loss up at key resistance, re-enter after pullback confirms support, safer than blindly chasing highs.
On the US stock side, S&P futures near 4500 also face weekly supply zone; Nasdaq is more clearly boosted by falling Treasury yields, but tech valuations already reflect "rate cut expectations"—if upcoming inflation data disappoints, the pullback will be severe.
As for $BTC, this leading rally is essentially a liquidity-sensitive asset frenzy, 4-hour chart shows an ascending channel, current upper edge near 68000 (hypothetical price, actual per current), also facing resistance.
The core issue now is:
The market no longer trusts the Fed. No matter how much Powell talks, as long as he doesn't dare to truly raise rates, the market trades on "easy money" expectations.
But the end of easy money is repeated inflation.
This game will break sooner or later.
Follow the trend short-term, but always use stop loss, especially near key resistance levels, don't get carried away by emotions.
Keep the gold 4430 long base position, reduce half near 4515, hold the rest for breakout; if pullback to 4460 stabilizes, add longs. If breaks 4430, wait and see.
In this market, it's not about who predicts right, but who survives longer.
Let's encourage each other.
#Gold #USStocks #USTreasury #BTC #TradingNotesDon't underestimate this $ETH breakout.
Because it might be undergoing a very important change:
From "following BTC's rise" to "attracting funds on its own."
In the past few months, ETH has been suppressed below $2,000.
The market's interest in it was clearly less than BTC.
But things suddenly changed these past two days.
ETH directly broke through $2,000, then surged up to around $2,300, completing nearly a 20% spike in a short time.
More importantly, funds started to follow.
On August 19, spot ETH ETF net inflow in a single day reached about $189M, marking the largest single-day inflow in nearly 10 months.
The derivatives market also saw drastic changes.
ETH derivatives volume surged over 24 hours, with more than $1B worth of ETH shorts liquidated, which directly fueled the upward momentum. (Coin Edition)
So this current rally is actually very interesting:
Macro liquidity expectations improve,
BTC breaks out first,
ETH follows with a catch-up rally,
ETF funds enter the market,
Short sellers start collectively stopping losses.
This is not just a simple big bullish candle.
This is a simultaneous change in funds, sentiment, and positions.
But the more this kind of rally happens, the more you shouldn't chase blindly.
Next, I’m only watching two levels:
$2,300: strong short-term resistance.
$2,000-$2,100: core support zone after the breakout. Key watershed at 135
Holding above 135 still offers a chance to test the 140‑152 resistance range, which belongs to a weak rebound market;
A valid break below 135 confirms a bearish trend, and it will retest the 110‑121 support zone.
Don't fall into a misconception:
Big players don't necessarily have to bottom fish at 105.
After the stock price rises, institutions can also rotate and raise their chips; similarly, as the price moves higher, old shareholders' willingness to cash out strengthens.
Two mid-term paths
1. Strong path: Volume expands and holds above 156, with oscillation digesting unlocked chips, then there's a chance to challenge previous highs;
2. Weak path: Rebound lacks volume, each round of rise is accompanied by escape of restricted chips, long-term range oscillation, back-and-forth consolidation.
Overall volatility will be much greater than ordinary stocks. Unlocking is a long-term hidden risk, while financial reports, Starlink, and AI business progress are the core logic determining the trend $SPCX The real point to note about this $ETH surge is not "how much it has risen."
It's that capital is finally starting to reprice ETH.
Yesterday, ETH was hovering around $1,900, then directly broke through $2,000, reaching as high as around $2,300, with a short-term increase close to 20%. (Exchange Rate Query Network)
Why such a strong move?
First, BTC broke through $70K, and the entire market's risk appetite instantly returned.
Second, the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, easing pressure on long-end yields, and the market began trading on expectations of improved liquidity.
But what really caught my attention is the third point:
ETH ETF capital is clearly accelerating.
On August 19, the U.S. spot ETH ETF had a single-day net inflow of about $189M, the largest single-day inflow since October 2025. (BeInCrypto)
This means this ETH rise is not just retail sentiment.
There is real institutional capital coming in.
Combined with a large number of shorts forced to cover, ETH formed a cycle:
ETF buying → price breakout → short stop-loss → forced liquidation buying → continued rise
Once this cycle forms, the market can easily enter an acceleration phase.
But don’t get carried away now.
Around $2,300 has already entered a clearly high volatility zone, and the short-term RSI shows overbought signals.
My main point is simple:
$2,000 is the new boundary between bulls and bears. $SPCX SPCX 133.64, dropped from 140 to 132, even AI news at the level of Grok 4.6 launching on Amazon Bedrock can't move it, the market's attitude toward this asset is already very clear. The problem with SPCX is that unlocking expectations are suppressing the price too much—no matter what news comes out, as long as the shadow of unlocking remains, the price will struggle to truly strengthen. Positive news instead becomes an opportunity to sell, and this kind of trend is the most painful.😅
SAR=145.18 is high above, EMA21=140.38, EMA55=139.02, all pressing down on the price, which is tightly suppressed by all moving averages. But KDJ's J value=1.79, K=17.18, D=24.88—low-level death cross continues, the K line has never crossed above the D line. RSI6=10.37, this value is indeed quite rare for SPCX. The price has been continuously falling over several trading days, the bearish momentum may be approaching exhaustion.
The problem is—oversold does not mean the downtrend will stop. Unlocking expectations are the ceiling pressing down on the entire contract; as long as this expectation remains, the price will hardly see a decent rebound. News like Grok 4.6 launching on Bedrock might be a catalyst for a big rise in other assets, but for SPCX it only reduces the decline a bit.
Comment below, do you think SPCX can hold 130? Or will it fall below 120 before unlocking? I choose to place an order at 125 with a stop loss at 120; if it reaches, I buy, if not, I keep watching. Experience from missing out on SanDisk tells me: the harder it falls, the more patience is needed to wait for confirmation.🔥
SpaceX's fundamentals are fine, but SPCX's contract structure has unlocking issues. When fundamentals and technicals conflict, it's best to respect the technicals. Before the unlocking day, all rebounds might be traps. Bring it on if you disagree.😅🔴 Breaking | Cantor Fitzgerald grants 3000 institutional clients access to block trades on Kalshi contracts
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📰 The news
Cantor Fitzgerald will grant about 3000 of its institutional clients access to block trades in event contracts on the Kalshi platform.
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— This comes despite the escalating legal battles Kalshi is facing in New York, Washington, and Utah
— The platform gains direct institutional trust from one of the largest brokerage firms on Wall Street
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🟢 Institutional support that strengthens its legal position? Or a risk despite ongoing disputes? 👇
⬡ LEGENDARY_007Crypto market warms up overnight, who's igniting the fire behind the scenes?
After months of silence, a long-awaited broad rally finally arrives.
Three fires ignite the market
This wave of momentum came quickly but was not without signs. In recent weeks, Bitcoin hovered around the $60,000 mark, with prices barely moving and buying pressure insufficient. Today, several factors coincided:
🔥 First fire: U.S. Treasury market
The U.S. Treasury Department announced it will increase liquidity support for repurchase operations on 10- to 30-year Treasuries, raising the single operation cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9.
Once the news broke, long-term U.S. Treasury yields quickly fell. The 30-year yield dropped nearly 10 basis points intraday, the 10-year yield returned to about 4.65%, and the dollar index weakened noticeably.
When long-term yields approached 5.34%, capital preferred risk-free assets. Now with yields falling and the dollar weakening, high-risk assets get a breather.
🔥 Second fire: New SEC draft
On August 18, the U.S. SEC proposed new rules, with key highlights including:
For startups, a maximum $5 million issuance exemption, plus up to $75 million financing exemption every 12 months.
More importantly, a “safe harbor” rule—if projects fulfill their development and operational commitments or officially announce cessation and report to the SEC, their tokens will no longer be considered securities. This means freer trading and exchange listings without sudden regulatory crackdowns.
In short: the U.S. finally drew a clear “graduation line” for crypto projects, reducing uncertainty. On the same day, crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Circle also strengthened significantly.
🔥 Third fire: Whales accumulating for a long time
Big money moves didn’t just appear today:
CryptoQuant data shows that over the past 60 days, large Bitcoin holders have net increased their holdings by about 43,000 BTC, worth nearly $3 billion at current prices.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 30-day “spot demand” has rapidly recovered from about -206,000 BTC on July 23 to about -5,000 BTC on August 18, the closest to turning positive since late February.
Historical backtesting shows that when this demand indicator turns from negative to positive, Bitcoin’s median gain over the next 60 days is about 18.1%, with a roughly 78% chance of rising.
Glassnode also observed a similar phenomenon: “Strong hands” are buying Bitcoin again, and the current structure bears some resemblance to the late 2022 bear market phase.
Outlook: Is the bull market returning quickly?
Technical analyst Aksel Kibar points out that $BTC daily chart is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a key neckline around $66,600. A valid breakout could target $76,000. After today’s breakout, about $1.4 billion in short positions were liquidated within 4 hours, further amplifying the gains.
Variables to watch:
First, whether the $68,000 level can hold firmly and become effective support.
Second, whether the retreat momentum of Treasury yields and the dollar can continue.
Third, clues from the Fed’s July meeting minutes on the future interest rate path.
Fourth, whether leading altcoins like $ETH and $SOL can maintain relative strength, helping us judge if this recovery is localized or a broad market rebound.
More bottom signals are emerging, but this does not directly equate to a new bull market start. The market is warming up, but the road ahead still requires observation.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
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