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$SNDK Seeing this long-short ratio reminds me of the fear of being dominated a month ago... At that time, Micron's long-short ratio was over 90, and in the end, the bulls were completely crushed until their confidence was gone and the long-short ratio returned to around 1. Now everyone is bearish, the long-short ratio once dropped to just over 20, are you still shorting? The financial market only allows a few to make money, that's for sure. The bulls have been consolidating and holding chips for two consecutive weeks, so a few upward spikes are normal. Of course, it's not very suitable to enter a squat position now; it’s probably the final sprint phase. Unless it pulls back below 1700, you can try a small long position. If you want to short, it’s expected after 1850-1900, when the airdrop is basically pulled up, and the long-short ratio is close to 1, then short in batches.$SOL is capturing ETH's RWA growth: $378 million in tokenized US Treasuries added in the past 30 days
Today, SOL has data worth studying separately: in the past 30 days, the scale of tokenized US Treasuries on the Solana chain increased by about $378 million, while Ethereum added about $272 million in the same period. SOL's incremental growth has already surpassed $ETH during this phase.
Combined with Solana's approximately $1.45 billion tokenized stock trading volume in July, SOL's capital logic is no longer just MEME.
The next phase of public chain competition will likely focus more on four metrics:
stablecoin balances, RWA scale, real trading volume, and on-chain fees.
Not just TPS.
In trading, I pay more attention to SOL/$BTC. If BTC continues to consolidate, and SOL/BTC can keep rising while RWA data continues to grow, it indicates that the fundamental narrative is turning into capital preference.
Industry trends can be studied in advance, but prices are best confirmed by the market itself.
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ #Peter Todd Wants to Change the 21M Cap, While Vitalik Is Integrating BTC into ETH
Both chains are simultaneously touching one of their most untouchable parts this week. Peter Todd reintroduced a tail emission proposal on Bitcoin++, aiming to permanently extend block rewards, which would pry open BTC’s 21,000,000 hard cap; meanwhile, Vitalik is suggesting Ethereum scaling can learn from Bitcoin’s UTREEXO, bringing BTC’s light node solution into ETH. These two things seem unrelated but actually answer the same question: should these two most robust networks learn from each other?
Todd’s move is a thought experiment, not an on-chain risk
First, set a baseline for fear. Todd himself made it clear on X: he hasn’t made any substantive contributions to Bitcoin Core in ten years; the label of thought leader fits him better than Core dev. He hasn’t written a single line of core code that would be merged, only reintroduced his July 23 Toronto talk "Tail Emissions and Demurrage" on August 14 on Bitcoin++.
His core argument is actually simple. Permanent BTC issuance does not equal inflation because lost coins would be redistributed to miners through a constant tail reward, resembling gold’s long-term attrition rate; without stable miner income beyond fees, block incentives would collapse, exposing the security budget. Implementing this would require a consensus-level hard fork, rewriting the 21M figure—one of the most untouchable parameters in BTC’s history.
Adam Back outright rejected it on August 16, comparing it to BIP-110, a dangerously inadvisable proposal, criticizing Todd for using simple but incorrect rhetoric to sway people. Dan Held also rebutted: any supply parameter tweak introduces a permanent political attack surface; there’s no way to calculate the most reasonable inflation rate; keeping the 21 million cap is to ensure this topic never surfaces. Todd himself doesn’t bet on it happening; news.bitcoin quotes him saying no tail emission hard fork will happen within five years. This is not a coin risk but a repeatedly stirred narrative.
Vitalik’s side: not changing ETH issuance, but borrowing BTC’s structure
ETH isn’t changing its supply curve but its scaling structure. Vitalik publicly said Ethereum can learn from Bitcoin’s UTREEXO, a scheme that compresses the UTXO set into a Merkle structure, allowing light nodes to avoid verifying the entire history. It doesn’t change ETH’s issuance model but brings BTC’s UTXO-friendly light node structure into ETH, lowering the node entry barrier.
Looking at both side by side makes it clear. Todd wants BTC to learn ETH’s permanent issuance plus miner incentives; Vitalik is making ETH learn BTC’s minimalist state and light nodes. The Bitcoin vs Ethereum debate is shifting from who will replace whom to who learns first.
The market isn’t giving you conclusions, but rhythm
BTC perpetual on 8/17 at 11:50 reported $63,421.3, +0.54% in 24h; funding rate +0.0100% near zero; OKX single-block SWAP oiUsd about $2.12 billion. ETH perpetual at $1,903.91, +1.13% in 24h; funding rate +0.0070% also near zero; oiUsd about $1.34 billion. ETH’s 24h rebound is more than double BTC’s.
Professor Suo noted in the 8/17 morning report: BTC hard fork topic is heating up, some are bottom-fishing, others eyeing 30–50k; ETH lacks buying reasons, everyone talks about shorting ETH together. Narrative and price rhythm are opposite; BTC’s base is dragged into debate by the tail emission narrative, while ETH’s market moves ahead of debate heat.
Whales are betting on both sides. ETH whale 0x8447 withdrew 5,300 ETH worth $9.98 million from Kraken, with multiple withdrawals and staking in the past month (Lookonchain). On BTC’s side, a 7-month dormant address moved 16,400 BTC worth $1.04 billion, and another 100% win-rate bull opened a $107 million BTC long.
Should these two things be considered together?
UTREEXO borrowed is positive for ETH: smaller nodes, lower staking and self-operation thresholds, meaning ETH is adopting BTC’s minimalist node philosophy at a deeper level.
Tail emission is politically almost impossible to pass. It rewrites the 21M cap, the most untouchable number in BTC’s faith. The value of Todd’s proposal is not in implementation but in repeatedly bringing this boundary topic up every two or three years, forcing the community to reaffirm why 21M must not be changed.
The ETH/BTC ratio is watched by many as a reversal node; moonbag and eliz883 have recently called for a reversal. If Vitalik’s borrowing is formalized into an EIP and put on Hegotá’s agenda, ETH’s long-term valuation narrative won’t rely on soaring stories but on BTC-verified structure, making it even harder to collapse.
Let’s discuss three questions in the comments.
Is BTC’s 21M cap an unchangeable faith or just a security lock no one dares to touch?
Is Vitalik borrowing BTC’s UTREEXO philosophy for ETH, or is BTC’s minimalist idea quietly consuming all chains?
$BTC $ETH #UTREEXO A recent contradiction in the Bitcoin market has emerged: there has been no obvious price collapse, but trading activity is declining; Meanwhile, institutional funds once saw a significant return of funds through spot ETFs, but then weakened again. This means that what BTC really needs to watch now may no longer be "whether anyone is bullish," but rather: whether incremental funds are still present. 1. BTC's biggest problem now: The market is getting quieter. As of August 17, BTC was fluctuating around $63,000. The market did not experience typical panic selling; instead, it seemed to have entered a phase of "low turnover, low volatility, low participation." Recent data from K33 shows that BTC perpetual contract trading activity has significantly declined, with Binance and Bybit's BTC/USDT perpetual contract 30-day average volume at about $10.8 billion, at a low level in recent years. The spot market is also on the cold side. From a market structure perspective, this is very important: a decline in trading volume does not necessarily mean capital is fleeing wildly. If panic selling occurs, trading volume usually increases rapidly; And now, a more obvious sign is that both bulls and bears are waiting. In other words, the market is not without disagreements, but there is currently no strong enough reason for large funds to place large-scale bets at the current position. 2. But ETFs once sent a positive signal to the market. What truly deserves attention is the US spot BTC ETF. From August 3 to August 7, the total net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs was aboutHeated regulatory discussions do not mean the policy has been implemented. The homepage featured topics about CLARITY's pending vote and SEC rules not yet implemented. BTC rose about 0.46%, ETH remained near 1.88K, and prices have somewhat recovered, but there is still no sign that funds are willing to buy long-term for ambiguous expectations. I only recognize three types of confirmations: a clear voting date and official text, BTC holding above 63K, and spot trading volume increasing simultaneously when ETH breaks through 1900. If there are only rumors and short-term rallies without rules or ongoing buying, I would treat it as sentiment trading. Will you wait for the policy statement first, or wait for a price breakout first? $ETH $BTC After $BTC fell below 63,000, what’s really worth watching isn’t the RSI, but whether the chips at 63,000 will turn into selling pressure
BTC is currently around $62,990, down about 2.7% for the week. More importantly, market data shows that around $63,000 is close to BTC’s median realized price, and recent spot buying depth has dropped about 30% compared to early July.
This means 63,000 is not just technical support but also near a large holding cost.
If BTC climbs back above 63,000 and stabilizes, it means these holders are still willing to hold; if it stays below 63,000 for a long time, the original support may gradually turn into selling pressure on rebounds.
In trading, I won’t try to guess the bottom here but will wait for two signals: reclaiming 63,000 + a clear recovery in spot trading volume.
What really needs caution is a price rebound accompanied by continued shrinking volume. That kind of rise is more likely from short covering rather than new money actively entering.
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 Today $SNDK surged directly because of Investor Day, and those holding positions are probably quite happy. But watching the unrealized gains in my account, I actually started to feel a bit uneasy.
It's not that I am bearish, but for this kind of price increase driven by news, I need to think clearly about what exactly is driving the rise.
In the group chat, everyone is talking about 80% gross margin, 2030 targets, long-term agreements—these sound impressive. But to me, these slogans are meant for those who haven't gotten in yet.
If you already hold a position, what you really need to understand is: at this price, how much good news has already been priced in? At the 1641 level, it's no longer a bet on whether storage chips will continue to be in short supply and increase in price, but a bet on whether it can sustain the abnormally high profits seen in FY2026 Q4 into FY2027 and beyond.
To put it plainly, the market isn't afraid of you making a lot in one quarter; it's afraid that after this wave of profits, there will be nothing left. If the next earnings report shows the gross margin can hold up and the long-term agreement's price-locking power is truly strong, then this valuation still has a story to tell.
But if it's just a short-term bonus from the shortage, once capacity comes online and prices ease, everyone who chased in now will be left holding the bag.
I personally don't plan to add to my position at this level. I'll hold my base position, but I will focus on two things in the next earnings report: one is the sustainability of the gross margin, to see if it's propped up by a one-time price hike; the other is management's guidance for FY2027, whether they dare to give a profit midpoint higher than now. If these two points can't be delivered, then this big rally is an opportunity for me to reduce holdings, not to add.
If you also hold $SNDK, don't just be happy about the stock price rising; think more about how much expectation is already priced in. Making money you understand is more reliable than making money from hype.
$SNDK
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 The recent days' stock price correction is more due to market sentiment and short-term capital speculation causing fluctuations, rather than a fundamental deterioration.
This week, Falcon 9 completed back-to-back launches from different bases with only a 38-minute interval, setting a new record for its launch efficiency, demonstrating stable execution of mature business; Nvidia disclosed its position entry, representing recognition from leading tech institutions of its long-term path combining terrestrial communication and AI computing power. Starlink's cash flow foundation is solid, Starship is still in the iterative test flight phase, and setbacks in single test flights are normal in the R&D process.
The aerospace sector itself has a very long cycle, and short-term stock price fluctuations are just part of the journey. The main storyline of Starlink's continuous expansion, Starship unlocking large transport capacity, and the establishment of a space computing ecosystem remains unchanged. After experiencing losses and fluctuations, I still have a long-term optimistic view of SpaceX and am willing to patiently wait for the gradual realization of its technological and commercial value. $BTC $SNDK $SPCX 📊 The current market shows clear structural differentiation. In the US storage sector, storage stocks like SanDisk have emerged strong in their own way amid overall market volatility, with bullish sentiment heating up. However, this hype is not blind speculation, but is supported by clear industry logic. Meanwhile, the crypto market appeared relatively quiet, with spot ETFs experiencing slight net outflows, strong cautious capital, and a lack of endogenous upward momentum. The two types of assets perform very differently under the same macro environment, which deserves a deeper analysis of the underlying reasons. 🔍 The independent rally of the storage sector first comes from substantial changes in industry fundamentals. With the explosive demand for AI inference, large models have surged their real-time access to massive data and cache requirements, directly driving demand for NAND flash and memory chips. Original contract prices have been continuously raised, while long-term orders lock in future capacity, significantly weakening the cyclical nature of the storage industry, shifting from strong cyclical stocks to a sector with stronger growth attributes. More importantly, related companies have started paying cash dividends to shareholders, attracting institutional funds seeking stable returns to concentrate inflows, creating a positive cycle. It can be said that this round of rally is the result of profit expectations and capital preferences resonating, rather than being driven solely by short-term sentiment. ⚠️ But the risks should not be ignored. Excessive short-term gains mean rapid valuations rise, and if market expectations for AI demand growth loosen in any way, concentrated profit-taking could be triggered at any time. More macro pressure comes from U.S. Treasury yields remaining high for a long time. In a high interest rate environment, growth stocks are generally under valuation pressure, and storage stocks are being heldBrothers, I am Long Paopao.
Last time we talked about Robinhood Chain, today I must single out Pons — currently the most powerful launchpad on this chain and one of the targets with the most intense KOL hype recently.
1. What is Pons?
Pons is a token launch platform (Launchpad) built on Robinhood Chain, similar in function to Pump.fun on Solana.
After the Robinhood Chain mainnet went live on July 1, Noxa (the previous leading launchpad) unexpectedly shut down, turning the Robinhood launchpad scene into a "battle of many factions." Pons quickly rose to the top within a week, becoming the current leader.
2. Who is hyping it? How?
This "Pons fever" is not a solo fight:
1. Bonk gang openly entering
Bonk ecosystem core figure bonkguy openly bought $PONS and even added more later. This sparked a "conspiracy theory" narrative — that Bonk gang might be manipulating Pons behind the scenes.
2. WLFI advisors continuously hyping
Advisors from the Trump family project WLFI, like @cryptogle, have been publicly hyping $PONS, further strengthening the market’s imagination of a "big force" behind Pons.
3. Robinhood CEO personally involved
On July 21, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev followed Pons founder @MEADGod on X. Vlad then tweeted clear support for RWA and Meme coins. The founder being directly followed by Robinhood’s top leader — this kind of signal is priceless in the attention economy.
4. KOLs collectively bullish
On July 27, according to BlockFlow KOL opinion aggregation platform, $PONS received unanimous bullish views within 24 hours.
3. What is the logic behind the hype?
Summarizing the core arguments from KOLs:
1. Traffic monopoly
Pons controls about 80% of Robinhood launchpad traffic. Its daily trading volume market share once reached 52.1%. Cumulative trading volume exceeds $1 billion, with over 290,000 tokens issued.
2. Strong buyback and burn mechanism
Pons uses 80% of protocol revenue to buy back PONS. Within one month of launch, it has burned over $9 million worth of PONS, nearly 30% of total token supply. Some KOLs estimate an average daily burn of about 2.88 million tokens over 7 days.
3. Explosive revenue data
The platform’s daily revenue is about $186,000, which annualizes to $48.5 million at this rate. Token creators have cumulatively received over $15.3 million in fees. A KOL pointed out that Pons’ market cap/revenue ratio is only 0.76x, far below the DeFi industry median of 31.9x, and even lower than Pump.fun’s 2.92x — meaning its relative valuation is still very cheap.
4. Deflation + V2 upgrade
Within one month of launch, cumulative trading volume has approached $2.5 billion. The V2 version starts charging fees from the first trade, covering the entire token lifecycle. The team is also planning new directions like NFT+RWA pairing.
4. What does Paopao think?
Pons’ fundamentals are indeed strong — revenue, burn, and market share are all improving. But the more intense the hype, the more you need to stay clear-headed:
How much good news is already priced in?
Pons’ market cap once exceeded $39 million in July, then fell back to around $27 million. On August 8, it surged 65% in 24 hours. These waves of price pumps are largely driven by KOL hype and attention.
Uncertainty in the launchpad sector
Although Pons is the current leader, competitors like Arrow are eyeing the spot. The launchpad sector is winner-takes-all, but who will ultimately win is still uncertain.
Token-specific risks
Pons is the platform’s own token, not a third-party Meme coin running on the platform. The value of a platform token depends on the platform’s ability to continuously generate revenue — if users flow to competitors, all valuation logic must be recalculated.
Summary
Pons is currently the strongest data, most hyped, and most aggressively narrated target in the Robinhood Chain ecosystem. The triple endorsement from Bonk gang + WLFI advisors + Robinhood CEO’s attention has made it the center of attention in this launchpad battle.
But remember: the fiercer the hype, the stronger the FOMO, the greater the volatility.
I am Long Paopao, thanks brothers for the support. DYOR, control your position size, and let’s chat in the comments.Brothers, I am Long Paopao.
Continuing from last time, today I want to talk specifically about Robinhood Chain. This might be the most underestimated "on-chain variable" in the current market. Don't treat it as just another ordinary new L2; this is an experiment where 27.6 million traditional retail investors are being onboarded to the chain in bulk for the first time.
1. What is Robinhood Chain?
It has been live for just over a month, and the data is quite explosive:
· TVL rose from $269 million to $377 million (+40.3%)
· Stablecoin market cap increased from $433 million to $539 million (+24.4%)
· Active RWA market cap grew from $54.5 million to $89.1 million (+63.5%)
· Daily active addresses surged from 280,000 to 5.2 million at one point
· Over $200 million ETH cross-chain transfers in, with about 130 million total transactions
More notably—spot DEX trading volume dropped nearly 20%, but TVL, stablecoins, RWA, and Perp trading volumes are all growing. This indicates that capital is shifting from short-term speculation to products with long-term lifecycles such as lending, yield, perpetual contracts, and tokenized assets.
2. What opportunities in the ecosystem are worth watching?
1. Robinhood Earn—Earn 7% APY passively
Robinhood Earn is directly integrated into the main app. Compliant users only need to hold USDG stablecoins in a self-custody wallet, and through Morpho-powered vaults, they can earn about 7% annualized yield with no lock-up period.
Key point: Millions of Robinhood users can now access on-chain yields directly through a familiar interface without cross-chain transfers, searching for protocols, or learning DeFi operations. Morpho's TVL on Robinhood Chain has reached $274 million, accounting for over 70% of the chain's total DeFi TVL.
Morpho itself manages over $11 billion in assets and recently completed a $175 million funding round led by Paradigm and a16z Crypto—this sector has strong institutional backing.
2. Arcus—Built jointly by dYdX Labs and Robinhood
A DEX constructed by dYdX Labs and Robinhood Crypto, focusing on spot and perpetual contract trading of stock tokens and cryptocurrencies. Currently supports 95 stock tokens trading 24/7, with a TVL of about $18.6 million and a 7-day spot trading volume week-over-week growth exceeding 100%.
Highlight: In the future, Arcus tokens will be preferentially allocated to dYdX community members—users who trade, stake, or validate on dYdX may receive airdrops.
3. Lighter—$11 million incentives being distributed
A ZK-powered decentralized perpetual and spot exchange. Lighter has committed $11 million worth of LIT token incentives to the Robinhood community. Trading through the Robinhood wallet earns double points, which can be directly exchanged for LIT.
More importantly—Lighter's perpetual contracts are directly integrated into the Robinhood wallet, allowing users to trade without transferring assets. Perp trading volume increased 62.7% week-over-week in the past week.
4. Rialto—Entry point for stock token trading
An on-chain spot exchange supporting crypto assets, stocks, ETFs, etc., initially launching with over 90 Robinhood stock tokens. It uses a propAMM model—this is the most direct trading venue for Robinhood stock tokens.
5. Tokenized stocks—ERC-20 standard, composable
Robinhood's stock tokens follow the ERC-20 standard. This means they can:
· Be self-custodied by users
· Be transferred between wallets
· Be integrated into AMMs, lending markets, and derivatives
Currently, Robinhood Chain has about 328,000 tokenized asset holders, making it one of the chains with the largest holder base in the tokenized stock market.
6. HOOD stock itself—Institutions collectively bullish
Don't forget Robinhood's stock (HOOD). Barclays target price $122 (up 49%), Bernstein target price $160, Goldman Sachs maintains "Buy". Bernstein explicitly points out blockchain expansion as the core reason for the upgrade.
3. Participation strategies
1. If you have a Robinhood account: directly experience Robinhood Earn in the app; 7% no-lock yield is currently the most straightforward on-chain entry.
2. If you are a dYdX veteran user: keep an eye on Arcus token allocation rules, airdrops may be available.
3. If you want to earn incentives: trade perpetual contracts on Lighter via the Robinhood wallet to earn double points redeemable for LIT.
4. If you are optimistic about the long-term track: pay attention to the overall growth of RWA and tokenized stocks—active RWA market cap rose from $12-13 million to nearly $89.1 million within weeks, a growth rate worth considering.
4. Risk warnings
· Robinhood Chain has been live for just over a month; the ecosystem is still in its early stages
· Early activity is mainly driven by speculative trading of Meme coin Cash Cat
Summary: Robinhood Chain is not just another "technically superior" L2; it is a traffic engine with 27.6 million real users. There are many short-term speculative opportunities (incentives, airdrops), but the real value lies in what happens when these tens of millions of traditional users start to get used to on-chain finance.
I am Long Paopao, thanks brothers for the support. DYOR, manage your positions, let's discuss in the comments.$1.1 billion inflow, but prices don’t rise—ETFs are "blunting" the market
Last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.1 billion, ending the net outflow trend that lasted most of 2026. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for about 80% of the total Bitcoin ETF inflow.
But what about the price? Bitcoin briefly touched $65,000 before retreating to the $62,500–$63,000 range. "There is capital, but no trend" has become the most accurate summary.
There are three reasons. First, although ETF purchases provide incremental demand, miners, early holders, and corporate holders are also reducing their positions during the rebound—buy and sell orders expand simultaneously, effectively locking the price. Second, ETF funds are highly concentrated in Bitcoin, with very weak spillover effects on altcoins. Third, ETF inflows show significant daily fluctuations—only a stable net inflow sustained over several weeks, rather than concentrated buying over a few days, can form a true trend demand.
More worrisome is that ETF trading volume has dropped to the second-lowest level since October 2024. Funds have come in, but no one is willing to trade at this price level. Bitcoin’s market dominance has risen to 56.5%, stablecoins account for 13.4%—funds would rather sit in stablecoins earning interest than spread out. ETFs are no longer "rocket fuel" but a "shock absorber"—they can support the bottom but cannot drive the trend.U.S. stock earnings exploded! But don't celebrate too early — good data is turning into a "death sentence" for Bitcoin
S&P 500 Q2 earnings grew 31% year-over-year, far exceeding expectations, with 75% of companies beating estimates on both top and bottom lines, and profit margins rising from 14% to 16%. Wall Street immediately raised the year-end target to 7894 points. AI has shifted from "burning money" to "printing money," the turning point has truly arrived.
But crypto brothers need to understand another layer: the stronger the U.S. stock market, the more the Federal Reserve dares to raise interest rates. Wash has one more card in hand. The probability of a rate hike in September is quietly rising — this is more tangible bad news for Bitcoin than anything else.
A message for retail investors: don't mistake the stock market's frenzy for a crypto feast. Good data belongs to them, but the rate hike sword hangs over our heads. Wait until Wash makes his stance clear before making any moves. #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 以太坊涨得更快，确实比单纯横盘更有意思，但现在就喊轮动还早。个人主页当前卡片显示BTC约上涨0.41%，ETH约上涨1.09%，首页又在讨论消费走弱和ETF买盘回暖，情绪正在改善，却还不能证明资金全面扩散。 我会看三个确认：ETH相对BTC的强势能否持续，BTC能否守住63K，以及两者上涨时成交是否同步恢复。若只有ETH短暂冲高、BTC和量能都不跟，轮动很容易变成脉冲。你会先跟ETH强势，还是等BTC确认后再判断？$ETH $BTC $SNDK is no longer trading on "storage price increases" now.
In the past two days, $SNDK surged sharply due to investors, and the market discussion has mostly focused on the 80% gross margin, 2030 targets, and long-term supply agreements. But the real significance of these numbers is not how attractive they sound, but that the market is starting to reprice the sustainability of $SNDK's profitability.
In other words, $SNDK is no longer trading simply on "AI causing storage shortages." The expectations of shortages, price hikes, and tight supply and demand have long been known by the market. What truly determines whether the stock price can continue to rise is whether the exceptionally strong profit level in FY2026 Q4 is a one-time release at the cycle peak or can be carried into FY2027 and even further profit centers.
Therefore, the next earnings report should focus not on a few points of year-over-year revenue growth, but on three things: whether ASP can continue to remain strong, whether the proportion of high gross margin products can continue to increase, and whether management continues to revise upward the pace of gross margin and long-term agreement fulfillment.
If next quarter's profits are good but guidance no longer rises, the market will start to trade on "the peak has been reached"; if performance exceeds expectations and FY2027 profit forecasts continue to be pushed up, then $SNDK's valuation anchor will continue to move.
So holding $SNDK now is no longer a bet on storage price increases, but a more aggressive logic: how much the market has underestimated profits for the next two to three years. If this happened to an ordinary person, a floating loss of $210 million would be enough for the whole family to stay in the ICU until the next century, but for the Nasdaq-listed company GD Culture Group, this is just an extreme form of discipline.
GD Culture's performance in the first half of 2026 perfectly illustrates what it means for the main business to be a side hustle, and crypto trading to be the lifeline. The unrealized loss of $211.8 million on the books actually accounts for 97.9% of the company's net loss.
This means the company's management might not care at all about how much revenue the business generates daily; as long as the K-line of 7,500 BTC shoots up like a needle, the whole company can soar on the spot; if it drops, the whole company ends up working for Satoshi Nakamoto. This kind of operation, turning the company into a leveraged Bitcoin ETF, really makes those seeking stability among shareholders want to pinch themselves.
What probably shocks investors the most is not the floating loss on Bitcoin, but the astonishing change in the number of shares. After reverse stock split adjustments, the number of shares has become 18.15 times that at the end of 2025.
This is no longer called "financing," this is called turning on the money printing machine at full throttle. Moreover, 99.65% of the share increase comes from cash issuance, which in plain language means: the company keeps issuing new shares, using the money from shareholders to buy Bitcoin. Shareholders buy stocks but receive faith certificates diluted almost to transparency. This kind of nested financing model is indeed quite artistic.
Although the losses are severe and the dilution outrageous, GD Cultu Brothers, I am Long Paopao.
No beating around the bush today, let's get straight to the point—how will the crypto market move for the rest of August?
1. What's the current market situation?
Let's look at the data first. As of mid-August, Bitcoin has been hovering around $63,000 repeatedly. Ethereum is weaker, fluctuating around $1,880.
Bitcoin has dropped from about $88,800 at the start of the year to $63,000, a decline of about 29% year-to-date; Ethereum fell from about $3,004 to $1,881, down about 37%. This is not a normal correction; it's a real weakening trend.
August has historically been Bitcoin's "darkest hour"—median price change -7.87%, the worst month of the year. Don't expect seasonal factors to help you make money.
2. What about the technicals?
Since early March, Bitcoin's daily chart has formed a head and shoulders pattern—left shoulder in March-April, head in May, right shoulder starting to form at the end of June. The right shoulder's rise is accompanied by continuously shrinking volume, a classic sign of trend exhaustion.
In the short term, Bitcoin is trapped between resistance at $66,885 and support at $60,965. If it closes below $60,965 for three consecutive days, the next support is the neckline at $54,000; if $54,000 breaks, the theoretical target is around $41,000.
Conversely, only by reclaiming $82,931 can the structure truly reverse—the probability is low, no need for me to elaborate.
Ethereum remains under pressure below $2,000; every rebound is just a continuation of the downtrend. Without a large-volume breakout, don't talk about a trend reversal.
3. What is the capital flow saying?
ETF inflows have dropped sharply by over 80% since mid-July. Although there was a brief inflow of about $1.1 billion in early August, Bitcoin only briefly touched $65,000 before falling back. In the week of August 16, BTC ETFs recorded an outflow of $389 million, the largest single-week outflow in six weeks.
One abnormal phenomenon to watch: on August 14, futures open interest surged by $1.2 billion in eight hours, and funding rates remained positive—leveraged longs are aggressively adding positions, but spot prices are not following. Derivative-driven rallies are inherently questionable in sustainability. Once longs get liquidated, it will be a waterfall drop.
4. What to watch next?
1. The $60,000 defense line
Famous trader Killa bluntly said: if BTC can hold above $60,000, the current area may form a phase low; if it breaks below $60,000, the rest of August may see further declines below $57,000.
2. Regulatory changes
The White House convened a meeting with crypto industry executives on August 19, and the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee held its first official meeting on August 20. Don't expect meetings to equal price pumps, but stable policy expectations are good for the market.
Additionally, the SEC's scheduled crypto regulatory rule meeting was canceled, and the tokenization innovation exemption was postponed again. The "CLARITY Act" progress is stalled, with reportedly only a 10% chance of passing—the regulatory fog won't clear soon.
3. Macro environment
The Fed's September rate hike expectations have cooled somewhat, but U.S. Treasury yields remain high and the dollar is strong, still suppressing risk assets. August also has key events to watch like non-farm payrolls, CPI, and the Jackson Hole central bank symposium.
5. Long Paopao's view
In summary:
· CryptoQuant analysts believe BTC has about a 55% chance to trade between $57,700 and $67,000 in August, closing the month between $60,000 and $64,000
· The bearish probability is 30%, corresponding to a break below $57,700; the bullish probability is only 15%, requiring a move above $67,000
· 10x Research thinks if August closes above $63,000 on the monthly chart, it may confirm the bear market bottom
In the medium to long term, 21Shares and Standard Chartered Bank still maintain a year-end target of $100,000.
But in the short term—don't treat "$100,000 by year-end" as a reason for an immediate rise.
The current market is in a typical "capital present, no trend" phase. ETF funds are more about absorbing sell pressure and maintaining the bottom rather than driving a breakout. On-chain data shows whales quietly accumulating tens of thousands of BTC below $63,000—smart money is buying, but very cautiously.
My strategy is simple:
Above $60,000, hold a light position and wait for direction; if it breaks below $60,000, hold your hands and wait for a deeper price; if volume surges above $65,000 accompanied by continuous ETF inflows, then consider entering on the right side.
Don't fight the trend, and don't go all-in when the direction is unclear.
I am Long Paopao, thanks for the support, brothers. If you find this useful, give a like and let's chat in the comments.On Wednesday (August 19), a major event will take place in Washington—President Trump plans to personally host the White House Crypto Innovation Summit at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, featuring an "all-star lineup" from the crypto world. The CEOs of Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, Polymarket, a16z, and CME Group will all be present. CFTC Chairman Selik will also appear, and Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick are very likely to attend. This is not a tea party; this is the starting point of policy. On the second day of the summit (August 20), the CFTC will hold the inaugural meeting of its newly established "Innovation Advisory Committee." This is the first time regulators and industry leaders will sit down face-to-face to discuss a roadmap for crypto regulation moving from "uncertainty" to "clarity." But there is a huge contradiction that needs to be recognized. In the same week, the CLARITY Act failed to pass Congress for the third time. This bill was originally the most anticipated regulatory framework in the crypto industry, aiming to clarify the jurisdictional boundaries between the CFTC and SEC, providing projects and investors with a clear compliance path. After three failures, market predictions for its passage within the year have plummeted from over 60% at the beginning of the year to less than 10%. On one side, the White House is actively embracing crypto, with the president personally endorsing it; on the other side, Congress is deadlocked on legislation, and the regulatory framework remains stalled. What does this indicate? It shows that the United States' attitude toward crypto is undergoing a change $BTC staying steady around 63000 actually makes me more cautious about treating it as "someone is buying".
Just checked the market, BTC is near 63150. The 24-hour low is 62685, high 63363, fluctuating only about six to seven hundred dollars all day.
$ETH is at 1893, just one step away from 1900, but similarly, there’s no volume to push the door open.
What’s strange now isn’t that it can’t fall, but that hardly anyone is willing to move.
Volume has shrunk, implied volatility is suppressed, ETF buying hasn’t shown continuity, and stablecoin funds are still flowing out. Yet the contract rates remain positive, and below 63000 BTC is still being bought.
So this situation may not be institutions bottom-fishing, but more like spot buyers unwilling to chase, shorts unwilling to dump, and leverage propping the price in the middle.
If someone is really buying, we should at least see volume pick up and hold between 63350—63500. Then I’d take a small position following that, first targeting 64200—64500, with a stop loss below 63000.
But if 62800 breaks and the 4-hour candle can’t recover, I won’t try to guess the bottom; if 62500 falls, the 63000 “support” is just psychological comfort, and the next level to watch is 62000.
ETH is the same: if 1900 can’t hold, don’t treat it as strong; it’s just more grinding than BTC.
The easiest way to lose money now is to see BTC not falling and assume it won’t fall.
$BTC $ETH #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 $BTC $ETH $SNDK Volatility is getting smaller, discussion has clearly declined, and both retail investors and active funds on the market are decreasing. Many people think this kind of market is the hardest to endure, but if you look back at past cycles, when you really approach the bottom, it's often this state: no discussion, no excitement, and prices don't want to give you a quick break. The end of 2022 is a typical example: after BTC fell below 20,000, the rally didn't start immediately. It stalled at low levels for nearly two months, only starting at the beginning of 2023. The most tormenting part of the bottom is never a crash It's a long sideways movement. Now, on the daily chart, the short-term moving averages are gradually convergeing. EMA21, MA30, MA60 are basically in a tangled state. With this chart structure, you should watch for an upward rebound to test longer periodic moving averages like MA120 and MA200, and then decide if there's still a final push. So if it really breaks the previous low, don't panic and go for it directly. Unless there's a sudden negative event like FTX, I think even if it breaks the previous low, it'll be around 45 to 53, because the market has been grinding here for so long Essentially, it's constantly draining the patience of coin holders. If the price really drops, it's easy, but the problem is, who will take over the chips after the price drops? If the low chips are gradually locked in, fewer and fewer people are willing to sell. Continuing to sell isn't very meaningful. You spend a lot of money to push the price down, only for others to take all the chips, which is actually making a wedding dress for others. What deserves more attention now may not be whether the previous low is broken As core U.S. stocks fluctuate, capital is spreading along the $NVDA supply chain into the South Korean memory sector. The expansion of computing power has made HBM a key bottleneck, with SK Hynix's supply purity and Samsung's comprehensive recovery beginning to absorb the overflow liquidity. If cross-market capital continues to seek hardware catch-up gains, stabilization of the Korean won exchange rate will amplify the valuation elasticity of supply chain leaders. Once overseas chip export policies tighten or foreign capital flows back into U.S. stocks, this round of spillover effects will quickly recede. Going forward, closely monitor the net flow of foreign capital in leading memory stocks.
#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 #OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温 #AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元#SPCX Shareholding Structure Revealed, Harvard's 13F Holds a Heavy Position It pulled up to 142.8, and I actually feel calmer; market sentiment was instantly ignited.
Regarding the news, the shareholding structure was revealed, showing that Harvard's 13F holdings include a heavy position in $SPCX. Once people saw smart money involved, they immediately rushed in to grab shares. But after reading it, my first reaction was not excitement but caution.
Let's analyze this matter itself.
The 13F holdings disclose institutional positions from the previous quarter, not the current ones. That means Harvard's heavy position in $SPCX might have happened a long time ago, and we are only seeing it now. By the time retail investors see the news and rush in, institutions may have already started adjusting their positions. This doesn't mean Harvard is bearish, but the time lag means we can't blindly follow.
Also, $SPCX has already rebounded from previous lows to 142.8, showing a certain increase. The news causing another pull-up looks more like an emotional catalyst rather than a fundamental change. The real institutional holding logic won't fundamentally change just because of a 13F filing.
What impact does this have on us?
First, short-term sentiment is positive. Institutions at Harvard's level holding heavy positions give the market a "stamp of approval" signal, attracting momentum traders. $SPCX might still have short-term upward momentum.
Second, but chasing highs carries great risk. 13F data is lagging, and prices have already factored it in. Chasing now likely means buying at an emotional peak. Especially since $SPCX is inherently volatile, once sentiment fades, the pullback can be swift.
Third, be aware of previous short-selling pressure. $SPCX had accumulated shorts before, and this rally has forced some shorts out. If buying can't sustain, prices will fall back.
My own view and approach:
I've suffered losses on $SPCX before, having been taught a lesson shorting it. So now at 142.8, I neither chase longs nor casually short.
My approach is: first watch the volume. If this rally is accompanied by sustained volume, indicating real new money entering, then I might consider small long positions on a pullback. If it's just a volume-light spike driven by news, it will likely come back down, and I'll keep watching.
A heavy 13F position can be a reference but not a trading basis. Institutions buy positions; we only see the aftermath. Wait for sentiment to digest and price to stabilize before deciding whether to get in.
At this point, I choose to watch, not chase.
$SPCX #SPCX Shareholding Structure Revealed, Harvard's 13F Holds a Heavy Position [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
This earnings season is explosively strong! 86% of companies in the S&P 500 have exceeded profit expectations, with overall growth hitting the highest level since 2021—these numbers are truly historic.
But why is Wall Street still holding back? Because there are three walls blocking the way—
First, only AI is making money. This guy alone accounts for half of the S&P 500's EPS growth this year; the rest of the companies only grew by 2%, the whole class relying on the top student to pull up the average.
Second, valuations can't be pushed any higher. The P/E ratio has dropped from 26x to below 22x; the index's rise is fully supported by real earnings, while valuations are actually shrinking—like Pharaoh's pyramid getting taller but without adding more bricks.
Third, macro conditions aren't helping. The 10-year US Treasury yield is stuck at 4.63%, and oil prices remain stubbornly high. History shows that when commodities rise, corporate profits suffer.
So Wall Street's target price of 7894 isn't because they don't see profits, but because everything is "just right" now—so perfect that there's no room for even a grain of sand.
The market is moving from "buying expectations" into a "verification phase"; the direction is correct but the space is limited. Good trades are waited for, not chased.
Pharaoh's treasure is reserved for those with patience. $BTC $ETH $BEAT #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ BTC holding around $63,290 while volume dries up is not a clean risk-on signal. ETH’s modest outperformance and SOL’s slight decline point to selective positioning, not broad conviction across crypto.
The more important macro tension sits between weak consumption and the AI capital cycle. With the Fed split and AI infrastructure earnings under scrutiny, I would treat current resilience as fragile until participation expands beyond a narrow set of assets.
Just my read, not advice.$BTC remains bullish as long as it doesn't break below 62,000
Support to watch below: 62,200-62,000
Resistance above: around 64,000
News
Inflation data cools down, but risk appetite remains limited
The US July CPI released on August 12 showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4% (previous 3.5%), core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year (the smallest increase since February), and PPI was flat month-on-month, below the expected 0.2%. After inflation cooled, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September eased significantly — the probability of maintaining rates rose to 67.6%.
However, note that the positive news has not translated into a broad risk appetite recovery. Xangle's research report points out that although inflation is slowing, uncertainty about the interest rate path remains. Buying is relatively concentrated in Bitcoin; mainstream altcoins like Ethereum have not seen significant capital rotation. The crypto market is currently in a "liquidity expectation" and "geopolitical risk" intertwined dual environment.
Regulatory: SEC meeting abruptly canceled
The SEC suddenly canceled the crypto regulatory rules meeting originally scheduled for last Friday, which was planned to advance the Reg Crypto proposal and innovation exemption arrangements. This may be related to the repeatedly delayed CLARITY Act. Regulatory uncertainty adds short-term variables.
Institutional sentiment remains cautious
10x Research notes that stablecoins continue to flow out of the crypto market. Strategy, once one of the most stable buyers, has been a seller for four consecutive weeks. However, there are positive signals — Vivek Ramaswamy's Strive announced an increase in Bitcoin holdings, managing assets worth $1 billion.
Geopolitics: Oil prices fall but risks remain
WTI crude oil has dropped from around $100/barrel at the beginning of the month to the $81 range, easing inflationary pressure. But tensions in the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran persist, and risk premiums remain due to Houthi attacks on Saudi refinery facilities.
The current market is in a "weak balance" state — inflation cooling brings relief, with narrow oscillation between $62,000-$66,000, favoring selling high and buying low within the range.
The above are personal views for reference only
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #CLARITY表决待定，SEC规则未落地 #加密估值转向收入，BTC如何定价？ The South Korean stock market suddenly has AI core assets, with the roles of $000660.KS and $005930.KS becoming increasingly clear.
This line of Korean stocks cannot be ignored recently. As the AI market has developed, the valuation of core US stocks is no longer cheap, so capital naturally looks for second- and third-tier opportunities in the global supply chain. The most unique aspect of the Korean market is that it is not just superficially riding the AI wave; it truly has two core names on the table: $000660.KS and $005930.KS.
The story of $000660.KS is sharper. SK Hynix's lead in HBM makes it an indispensable supplier in NVIDIA's AI factory roadmap. AI chips are not just GPUs; HBM is almost a part of the performance bottleneck. No matter how strong your computing power is, if the memory bandwidth can't keep up, system efficiency will be constrained. Therefore, Hynix is seen by the market as a direct beneficiary of AI computing power expansion. This is not just sentiment but determined by its position in the supply chain.
The story of $005930.KS is more complex. Samsung has storage, smartphones, foundry, packaging, panels, and consumer electronics. Complexity means purity is not as high as Hynix, but it also means there is more room for recovery. In the past, the market was dissatisfied with Samsung mainly due to HBM rhythm, foundry competition, and business complexity dragging down valuation. But if Samsung gradually improves in HBM customer validation, advanced packaging, storage pricing, and AI collaboration, its rebound will look more like a valuation recovery of a comprehensive tech giant rather than the elasticity of a single storage stock.
So the Korean AI stock chain cannot be lumped together. $000660.KS is like a high-purity HBM asset, suitable for discussing AI server bottlenecks; $005930.KS is like a low-expectation comprehensive tech giant, suitable for discussing recovery and catch-up. One relies on leadership, the other on improvement. The market will prefer different things at different stages. When AI sentiment is hottest, capital chases the sharp edge; when the market spreads, capital looks for scale and lagging recovery.
But the Korean market also has its own risks. Foreign capital flows, the Korean won exchange rate, global tech stock volatility, and US chip export and supply chain policies all affect it. Korean stocks are not simply a "cheap version of US AI stocks"; they have higher cyclical elasticity and stronger external variables.
Entering the week of August 17, if US AI stocks continue to fluctuate, the Korean memory chain will instead become a direction for capital observation. Because if the AI market spreads from GPU to memory, Korea is not a marginal market but a core supply base. In the past, everyone only focused on buying $NVDA for AI; now more mature capital will ask: who provides the most critical memory for $NVDA? Once this question arises, Korean stocks will attract flow. The price trends of H or similar new coin groups are likely to be consumed as fuel for derivative positions. Have you confirmed that the essence of a surge is not a directional signal but a chain of liquidations? The original post points out two key points. First, the expectation that a specific coin (referred to as H) will become the next leading stock in the rise. Second, imitation coins with similar themes repeatedly follow patterns that induce short selling at their highs after surges. This means that this is not just a simple price prediction, but that market participants' position actions must be read in a way that precedes or distorts prices. From the perspective of the derivatives market, this pattern is interpreted with clear logic. If funding overheats during a sharp rise, the cost for new buyers to maintain their long positions increases, and when selling pressure arises, short liquidations occur before the price falls. In other words, at the beginning of the rise, a short squeeze accelerates the rise, and when the funding burden for long positions peaks, it becomes the cause of a sharp drop. Currently, the market for this cycle SanDisk surged from 1190 to 1775 in this wave, a nearly 50% rebound in two weeks, with the core catalyst being the Investor Day on August 13.
Investor Day shook the market, valuation logic shifts
Management presented a long-term financial model: FY2028 to FY2030 revenue growth in the mid-to-high double digits, non-GAAP gross margin around 80%, operating margin close to 75%, and 100% excess cash returned to shareholders after investments. A storage chip company daring to claim an 80% gross margin led the market to immediately reprice.
$93.9 billion long-term agreement locks in minimum revenue
The company has signed NBM long-term supply agreements with 8 data center customers, with a total contract value of about $93.9 billion and an average term of over 4 years. This covers more than 50% of capacity in fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds in fiscal 2028. This means that even if NAND spot prices pull back, a significant portion of revenue and profit is protected. This is the first time a storage company has gained multi-year demand visibility.
Institutions collectively raise target prices
JPMorgan upgraded its rating from Neutral to Overweight with a target price of $2250. Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating with a target price of $2200. UBS set a target price of $1750, and Mizuho raised theirs to $1900. The market consensus target price is around $2000.
AI inference opens a new demand ceiling
AI model inference generates a large amount of KV Cache data, driving some workloads to shift from the more expensive DRAM to NAND. SanDisk positions SSDs as the Token Battery for AI inference, and by 2026, AI inference will push enterprise SSDs to become NAND's largest downstream application market. On the supply side, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won stated that even if capacity doubles in the next five years, demand may still not be met.
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
Market data: On August 13, Investor Day, SanDisk surged over 13% to close at $1528, then rose another 7.39% on August 14 to close at $1641, with a trading volume of $33.9 billion, topping the US stock market for the first time. In two weeks, it pulled back from 1000 to 1775, a rebound of over 70%.
The essence of this rally is the market switching SanDisk's valuation framework. Previously, the focus was on the NAND cycle peak leading to low valuation; now it is on structural demand in the AI inference era + visibility locked by long-term agreements + shareholder return commitments. These three logics combined redefine the ceiling. $BTC $ETH $OKB
The above analysis is timely; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck.One-third of $MU's business is mobile consumer storage, with a gross margin exceeding 87%.
Some time ago, Apple attempted to purchase Chinese chips but was unsurprisingly rejected by the White House.
This also includes $SNDK, as both Changxin and Changcun are eyeing the market closely. However, since they are on the U.S. defense list, this weakens the expectation of supply substitution from China, which is a good thing for the bargaining power of the entire storage industry.#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Everyone, BTC's current state is a bit like the calm before the storm.
The latest report from 10xResearch is very straightforward: Bitcoin trading volume has clearly shrunk, the price volatility range has narrowed to a multi-month low, and implied volatility is also at rock bottom. Meanwhile, BTC ETF inflows are weak, and stablecoin funds continue to flow out of the crypto market. Both spot and leveraged sides are shrinking in volume, and the market truly lacks direction.
ETH, on the other hand, has a story to tell. Data from DWF Labs shows that ETH spot ETFs have outperformed BTC since June, with net inflows by fund size in July about 9.4 times that of BTC. Funds are indeed tilting towards ETH.
But institutions have not completely exited BTC. UBS significantly increased its IBIT call options in Q2, while slightly increasing its IBIT spot holdings. This indicates that institutions are not bearish on BTC but are waiting for a clearer direction before participating with options tools.
Mi Ge's view is simple: BTC's low volatility will not last forever. When the macro environment provides a new direction, volatility will expand again. ETH's relative strength is a fact, but it does not necessarily mean BTC is failing; it more likely indicates the market is temporarily seeking new trading logic. $BTC $ETH $BEAT
What do you all think about the next direction? Will BTC move first, or will ETH continue to lead? Wishing everyone a smooth trading week.#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
I am the mid-term intelligence analyst. BTC trading volume has shrunk to the lowest level since 2019, and ETFs have seen a brief net outflow, which looks alarming, but I firmly believe in a mid-term upward trend. The volume contraction is not a sign of a crash; it is the final compression phase—selling pressure is exhausted, profit-taking supply is near the bear market bottom, and miner sell pressure is retreating. All three selling pressures are dying down.
No need to panic about ETFs: from August 3 to 7, five days attracted 853 million in funds, with IBIT alone swallowing 690 million in one week, accounting for 80%. On the 11th, IBIT absorbed another 50.2 million. The money hasn't left the market; it's just concentrating in top wrappers, indicating maturation rather than withdrawal. The rate hike expectations were crushed by weak non-farm payrolls, the Clarity Act is moving to a full vote, and macro plus regulatory anchors are firmly setting the bottom.
My judgment: 62K-65K is the institutional cost zone. After volume contraction finishes, the direction must be chosen, with the probability of going up far greater than down. Lock in mid-term base positions; only add, never reduce, on a pullback to 62K. Confirm the second leg up with volume reclaiming 67,500, targeting 70K first. This level is not an escape hatch but a boarding point.
$BTC
$ETH Shocking! After SanDisk's surge, a "crocodile mouth" pattern appears, with giant whale shorts already lurking! Is a 1-hour level reversal imminent?
Others fear while I am greedy, but when the whales are greedy, I am fearful.
Senior analyst perspective: divergence between technical and capital aspects
Brothers, SanDisk has rebounded over 70% from the bottom, and the daily chart indeed shows an intact bullish structure. However, the 1-hour chart shows signs of weakness in volume and price — price consolidates at a high level, MACD shows a bearish divergence, and RSI, although high, is severely dulled. More importantly, SNDK is now the largest stock-type perpetual contract by position size in the crypto market.
The liquidation map shows dense long liquidations above, while the whale positions are even more intriguing: the top ten addresses are dominated by shorts, and smart money has opened 10x short positions around $1553, currently floating with profits. Combined with suspicions that SanDisk's release of a 93.9 billion long-term agreement and aggressive financial targets have exhausted positive catalysts, chasing longs here has very low cost-effectiveness.
Trading strategy: mainly short on highs, supplement with longs on lows
Primary strategy (short): If the 1-hour close breaks below 1650, lightly enter short positions targeting 1610 (a dense chip area).
Secondary strategy (long): Do not chase longs unless there is a volume breakout and a stable hold above 1700 accompanied by whale short liquidations. If the pullback to 1600 holds, small long positions can be tried for a rebound.
One last question: Will you choose to "short" with the whales this round, or bet on a "breakout" trend? See you in the comments! #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ $SNDK #BTC trading volume shrinks, can ETF buying rebound? There is an interesting contradiction in the current crypto market: prices haven't crashed, and sentiment isn't exactly panic, but clearly, there isn't enough money. As of August 17 Beijing time, $BTC is still fluctuating around $63,200. The biggest change in recent weeks isn't the price movement but the thinning trading volume, continuously compressed volatility, and the increasing lack of follow-through after breakouts. At the beginning of August, Deribit's BTC DVOL once dropped to around 35, and data from DWF Labs also shows BTC implied volatility ranking near a 52-week low. Low volatility itself doesn't mean risk has disappeared; it more so indicates the market is waiting for new pricing variables. This is why I believe the real focus going forward isn't simply guessing whether the next $BTC candle will go up or down, but rather: Will the next batch of incremental funds still prioritize buying $BTC? If not, where will they go? The problem with $BTC isn't a lack of bullish interest but a shortage of sustained buying pressure. ETFs remain the most important capital flow to watch for $BTC. In the first week of August, the US spot BTC ETF actually saw a noticeable inflow, totaling about $754 million, indicating institutional funds haven't completely exited. But recently, the market has started discussing a cooling in ETF demand because even with periodic inflows, the price still hasn't shown the full positive feedback loop of “ETF buying → spot breakout → leveraged chasing.” Even more noteworthy#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
BTC has recently stalled around 64,000–65,000, with spot 24h trading volume down 10%–16% week-over-week, a typical "price down, volume down" scenario. On the other hand, the US spot BTC ETF saw net inflows for 5 consecutive days from 8/3 to 8/7, totaling about $854 million for the week, the strongest week since mid-April, with IBIT alone taking 81%. Money is coming in, volume is shrinking, indicating it's not retail rushing in but institutions quietly accumulating under low liquidity.
• Since 2026, BTC ETFs have still had a cumulative net outflow of about $4.4 billion; the $850 million inflow only partially fills the big withdrawal gap from Q2;
• Inflows are highly concentrated in IBIT/FBTC, with small and mid-sized ETFs not following, lacking breadth;
• The Fear and Greed Index is stuck at 25–30 "extreme fear," retail hasn't returned, and trading volume is the second lowest since October 2024;
• Starting 8/10, single-day net outflows reappeared, so the continuity of buying remains to be tested.
① Can IBIT sustain 10 consecutive days of positive inflows (daily > $100 million)?
② Can BTC break above and hold 65,500 with volume expansion, rather than hitting resistance on shrinking volume?
③ Macro — September rate cut expectations + CLARITY Act vote in September will determine whether institutions dare to upgrade "tactical dips" to "strategic accumulation."
ETF buying is a "bottom-level recovery," not a "trend-level reversal." Until volume expands, every upper wick above 65,000 represents a tug-of-war between trapped holders and institutions buying the dip. Retail now is not betting on courage but on the ETF's ability to renew subscriptions. In January 2025, Bitcoin broke through 109,588, signaling the end of the phase bull market, and then kept falling until it bottomed out in April.
During the same period, Ethereum dropped from 4,100 to a brutal 1,385.
Looking back now, one should have liquidated in time before January.
But in the real environment, selling is a very difficult event, even harder than bottom-fishing in a bear market.
Let's see what happened at that time.
Institutions unanimously expected $200,000: Bernstein, Standard Chartered, ARK, and Deutsche Bank almost simultaneously released reports setting a $200,000 Bitcoin target for 2025, citing triple drivers of pension inflows, deeper institutional allocation, and policy friendliness.
Trump’s policies had just begun: The market generally believed his inauguration was only the starting point, with a series of policy benefits to come, including stablecoin legislation, 401k pension market entry, and Bitcoin strategic reserves; the narrative was far from being realized.
ETF funds kept flowing in: In January, spot ETF net inflows totaled $5.3 billion, with BlackRock’s single product attracting $3.2 billion, showing continuous institutional buying.
The four-year cycle model said the top was still early: The halving was in April 2024, and historically the top occurs 12–18 months after halving, i.e., mid to late 2025. January was only the 9th month, so according to this model, it was not the top but mid-mountain.
These views were not fabricated after the fact; they were public information seen daily at the time. Being in that environment, one would naturally feel the bull market was still early, just mid-mountain, making it hard to proactively think the market was ending.
This is the first hurdle: The whole world was full of good news, no reason to sell.
More importantly, the mainstream interpretation of the January drop was "picking up passengers in reverse" and deleveraging to lighten the vehicle for an upward path.
Because each bull market’s main upward wave experiences two or three sideways consolidations, each consolidation is feared as a bear market start, but in reality, these are temporary adjustments. However, repeated occurrences cause a "wolf cry" effect, so when the real bear market drop comes, people mistake it for just a correction, forming a mental imprint.
This is the second hurdle: Ignoring risk, all declines are inherently recognized as shakeouts.
We all know the bear market drop before April 2025 was due to Trump’s tariff policies.
But at the start of 2025, almost no one considered tariffs as the core variable accelerating the bear market.
Only when the first large-scale implementation caused a crash in February 2025 did the market start to take it seriously; by April, global reciprocal tariffs were fully implemented, and Bitcoin bottomed out. During the same period, altcoins fell for a full four months, with declines up to 80%.
This is the third hurdle: You cannot know the real bear market major negative news during the bull market, but it will inevitably appear.
Therefore, trying to cash out timely during a bull market relying on so-called news and analysis is inherently very difficult. When it’s time to sell, the whole world is full of good news; when bad news really comes, the bear market is already halfway through, making selling even harder because people are loss-averse.
So don’t put too much energy into narratives and news.
What really matters is focusing on chip structure, which brings us back to our old view.
The fundamental reason the bull market ends is buy-side exhaustion.
The fundamental factor causing buy-side silence is "price consensus."
In 2025, Ethereum consolidated around 3,800; when it broke below that consolidation, most started to fear, but the next day it recovered and then surged without looking back, breaking through 4,700.
The critical moment came after that 3,800 consolidation ended, with continuous good news, especially Tom Lee repeatedly saying Ethereum would break 10,000 by year-end. Everyone knew he was exaggerating; most thought 6,000–8,000 was a reasonable target. Then a price anchor formed: Ethereum would reach 6,000. News spread, more people believed that price, more buyers appeared, and eventually buy-side exhaustion occurred, ending the bull market.
So, when a price consensus forms, it’s time to start reducing positions, selling more as prices rise, selling regularly, just like dollar-cost averaging but reversed into selling.
Because you hold a position, you are part of the market, and your thoughts represent the public’s thoughts, so you will have the same price anchor as the public. The difference is your action becomes selling, not continuing to believe like the public.
So I summarize the following detailed points:
1. Everyone firmly believes the bull market has arrived.
2. The public begins to reach consensus on a higher price anchor.
3. Declines are no longer feared, seen as mere corrections and deleveraging.
When these signals appear, ignore all good news, sell decisively, don’t fear selling early. Selling early means you still have rationality. The truly scary thing is the top; selling feels like betrayal, like being wrong, and you might even buy back, causing greater losses.
I believe in these words: "Selling too early always profits; escaping the top is a disaster."
Now the bear market has reached August; the bull market will definitely come. The purpose of writing this article is to prepare for the next bull market.
I hope to stay clear-headed at the end of the bull market and timely lock in profits.
In crypto, compounding comes from realization, not necessarily long-term holding. SanDisk rose from 1226 to 1775, a 45% surge in two weeks. Lao Mo breaks down the explosive growth logic for you. SanDisk's latest price is 1711, with an intraday high of 1775. Starting from the low point of 1226 after the August 5 earnings report, it has rebounded over 540 points in two weeks, with trading volume topping the US stock market.
The core catalyst is only one: the August 13 Investor Day. But the amount of information is enough for the market to digest for a whole week.
First, the long-term targets are explosive. The 2028-2030 fiscal year model: gross margin about 80%, operating profit margin about 75%, free cash flow margin about 50%. For NAND, a traditional cyclical industry, an 80% gross margin is disruptive.
Second, NBM's long-term contracts are restructuring the business model. Eight customers have signed contracts totaling $94 billion, covering 50% of shipments in fiscal 2027 and two-thirds in fiscal 2028. SanDisk is transforming from a "spot-cycle stock" to a "long-term contract growth stock."
Third, HBF is an additional option. The first chip has been taped out and will be delivered to customers in 2027. It is not included in the financial model—if successful, it will be pure incremental growth.
Fourth, 100% excess cash is returned to shareholders. Remaining buyback capacity is about $15.5 billion, which Goldman Sachs says "far exceeds peers."
Analysts collectively raised target prices: Goldman Sachs 2200, JPMorgan 2250, Bank of America 2500. The mid-to-long-term logic remains intact, but after a 45% rise in two weeks, the cost-performance ratio for chasing higher prices is declining.
Did you catch this SanDisk surge? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Bitcoin is getting quieter, but the capital picture is not one-way.
10x Research says BTC volume has contracted, its trading range is at a multi-month low and implied volatility remains subdued. In a late-July snapshot, K33 estimated average daily spot volume at about $2.2B, putting the month on track for its weakest level since November 2023.
The slowdown extended beyond spot:
· CME BTC futures open interest was near levels last seen in 2023
· Perpetual futures open interest had stalled around 300,000 BTC
· The options put/call open-interest ratio fell from 0.76 in late June to about 0.52, suggesting less demand for downside hedges, though this alone does not indicate direction
The flow picture is also splitting:
· 10x sees broader BTC ETF demand as weak despite a recent rebound
· DWF Labs reports July ETH ETF inflows equal to 3.19% of fund size, versus 0.34% for BTC, a difference of around 9.4x in relative flow intensity
· 10x interprets stablecoin outflows as a sign that some liquidity may be moving outside crypto
Institutional positioning adds another layer. UBS increased its reported spot IBIT holdings from 364,371 shares in Q1 to 407,890 in Q2. Its reported call exposure rose from 80,000 to 1.95M underlying shares.
However, these Q2 holdings reflect positions as of June 30. Form 13F does not disclose option strikes, expiries or whether calls form part of a hedge, so the data should not be treated as a real-time directional signal.
July is historically one of BTC’s quieter trading months, meaning seasonality may explain part of the slowdown. Still, thin participation can leave prices more sensitive to the next ETF flow, macro surprise or positioning shift.
Which signal matters most for BTC’s next move: spot volume, ETF flows or volatility?
#BTCVolumeDriesUp #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约 #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ #AI巨头估值大战，正在间接影响加密市场🚨
The valuation battle between OpenAI and Anthropic is intensifying, with AI primary market valuations continuously reaching new heights.
This situation brings three concrete impacts to the crypto space:
① Liquidity is being siphoned off
SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic—several giants combined have valuations exceeding 3.6 trillion, all heading to the public markets.
Institutional funds will be heavily attracted by the hot AI IPOs, making crypto assets comparatively less appealing. As long as the AI IPO boom continues, the crypto market will face short-term liquidity pressure.
② Narrative bidirectional linkage, opportunities and risks coexist
Many AI concept tokens in crypto share the same AI growth story.
If Anthropic successfully goes public with a 2 trillion valuation, it will raise the ceiling for the entire AI sector, benefiting crypto AI projects with real-world applications through valuation uplift.
Conversely, if the AI valuation bubble bursts and capital re-evaluates profitability, the correction risk will spill over to the tech sector, and crypto AI tokens will also be affected.
③ Establishing a new valuation benchmark
After the IPOs of these two AI giants, the market will form a complete set of evaluation criteria: how to value AI companies, how to monetize, and how to account for profits.
This standard will spill over into the crypto field; protocols with real cash flow will be re-priced, while projects relying solely on storytelling without actual output will be rapidly cleared out.
My personal understanding:
In the short term, AI giants going public will squeeze funds from the crypto market.
But in the long run, behind the trillion-dollar valuations, Wall Street is pricing computing power with real money.
OpenAI and Anthropic consume GPU computing power; Bitcoin itself is a carrier of computing power.
The more money the AI industry burns and the more the value of computing power is confirmed, the more Bitcoin’s fundamental narrative will be reinforced. The underlying logic of both is actually connected.
So here’s the question: do you think the AI bull market will ultimately benefit or burden the crypto market?
$BTC $ETH
#Crypto Conclusion first: Global assets will resonate and charge towards a double top next year.
I reviewed two benchmarks:
The god of value investing - gold
The god of speculation - BTC
1. Slope
After the final stage of the main upward wave ends with a nearly 90-degree rise and a subsequent correction, it is almost always followed by a secondary top formation. Gold has experienced this in three consecutive rounds, and for BTC, I selected the previous cycle which is more representative. This current cycle did not show a terminal 90-degree rise. See my chart below for details.
PS: A 90-degree slope represents: extreme buying with low turnover, extreme FOMO sentiment, valuation extremely detached from fundamentals, and extreme leverage.
2. Correction amplitude
Gold's average correction amplitude is about 25%, with an upward amplitude of about 20%.
BTC's correction amplitude: 55%, upward amplitude: 128%.
Micron's current correction amplitude: 41%, expected future upward amplitude: over 150%.
3. Timing
Regarding the current time node, the AI stock sector's A-shares won't rebound quickly after a sharp drop; it needs time to digest. BTC has been in a bear market for nearly a year, and the second half of the year is the time to confirm the bottom, which will likely bottom out before the US stock market.
Notably, there are still 3 months until the midterm elections. Historically, there is always a big correction before midterms, and the stock market has a 100% probability of rising after the elections. I have also included a chart below.
4. The necessity of charging to a new top next year
This AI rally started at the GPT moment, but OPENAI has not yet gone public, nor has Anthropic. They will most likely IPO next year. So, with a beginning and an end, the most beautiful story must bloom at the highest point. Therefore, I tend to believe that after adjustments in the second half of this year, there will be at least one crazy charge to a new top next year.
More detailed supplements can be seen in the charts I posted. I believe the probability of a double top is very high.
My personal strategy is roughly to bottom-fish BTC and second-stage AI-related stocks in the second half of the year, and sell at the high point next year.
As for whether this will develop into an eternal bull market, that's hard to say. Let's first take advantage of the high-certainty double top. This article is just a starting point for discussion; different opinions are welcome to share and exchange.
$btc
$xau BTC has been trading in a narrow range between $62,800 and $63,000, with weekend volume further shrinking. On the surface, it seems calm, but position accumulation near $63,000 has become quite extreme, and an external catalyst could break the balance at any time.
The focus this week is not on technicals but on two policy events:
1. August 19 FOMC minutes (July 9-3 voting split)
2. On the same day, a White House meeting with executives from Coinbase, Ripple, and others, with Trump expected to attend. Against the backdrop of obstacles to the Clarity Act, this dialogue carries greater signaling significance.
Independent observation: The current sideways movement is pricing in "policy clarity." CPI meeting expectations but failing to ignite a rebound indicates macro data alone can no longer drive direction. What can truly change risk appetite is whether there is substantive progress in the US regulatory framework.
Meanwhile, the leak of Trezor + SafePal order data stands out more during price calm—keys were not lost, but identity addresses were exposed. "Device security" and "operational security" are two different matters. During low volatility periods, these structural risks often deserve more advance preparation than price fluctuations.
If clear signals come from the policy side, volatility will return; otherwise, sideways trading may extend. Clarifying position structure and safety boundaries is more important than guessing short-term price moves.
NFA
#Bitcoin #BTC #Cryptocurrency #MarketAnalysis #FOMC #RegulatoryPolicy #HardwareWallet #SelfCustody 📊 $ETH Contract Liquidation Express (August 17)
According to liquidation data, the whale played a textbook-level "short-term full squeeze → long-term full short squeeze" harvesting strategy on ETH, switching directions decisively, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $14.85 million.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $1.1609 million $477,700 $683,200
4 hours $5.7208 million $1.4194 million $4.3014 million
12 hours $14.7591 million $8.1911 million $6.568 million
24 hours $14.8582 million $8.2529 million $6.6053 million
From the $ETH liquidation data, in 1 hour short liquidations crushed longs, shorts were 1.43 times longs, the squeeze unfolded with nuclear-level intensity, liquidation volume $1.1609 million—shorts dominated the short term, longs were directly crushed; in 4 hours shorts continued to crush, shorts were 3 times longs, squeeze intensity exploded at nuclear level, liquidation volume jumped from $1.16 million to $5.72 million—shorts went all out, longs were completely crushed; at 12 hours the direction completely reversed, long liquidations crushed shorts, longs were 1.25 times shorts, the whale completed a fierce turn from squeeze to short squeeze, liquidation volume soared to $14.75 million—longs began to take over, shorts were continuously harvested; at 24 hours longs continued to crush, long liquidations $8.2529 million vs. shorts $6.6053 million, longs were 1.25 times shorts, cumulative liquidations exceeded $14.85 million—the whale completed a perfect harvesting path of "short-term full squeeze → long-term full short squeeze" on ETH, short-term shorts frantically squeezed, long-term longs counterattacked, a textbook-level double kill, profiting from both sides. But importantly, the long crushing ratio remained stable at 1.25 times from 12 to 24 hours, the short squeeze momentum tends to stabilize, longs and shorts entered a relatively balanced range. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
⚠️ Risk Warning: ETH short-term squeeze (1H/4H) and long-term short squeeze (12H/24H) form a sharp directional switch; 4-hour liquidations account for 38% of the daily total, concentration is high, market volatility is extremely intense. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x, avoid chasing highs or panic selling, strictly control positions and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 17
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: macro signals are split, the market is undergoing a "data clash" pricing reconstruction—consumption is retreating, earnings are surging, leverage is gambling.
📉 Consumption Momentum Weakens: No Hope for Rate Cuts, No Dare to Raise
US consumption continuously signals cooling. July retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month, the largest drop in 14 months, far below the expected 0.1% growth; core retail also declined 0.6%, missing expectations. By category, gas station sales dropped sharply 4.9% month-on-month due to falling oil prices, large-ticket items like furniture, cars, electronics were generally weak, only online sales barely maintained positive growth. The rapid decline in consumption momentum echoes the unexpected negative July nonfarm payrolls—the "double decline" in labor market and consumer spending is reinforcing each other.
But inflation stickiness still locks policy space. July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, core CPI 2.5%; PPI fell to 4.7% year-on-year, but service costs hit the largest increase of the year, inflation cooling is not a straight line down. CME data shows September rate hike probability dropped to about 33%, sharply contrasting with the 12% low after June CPI release—the market’s inflation worries have never truly faded. No move is not because it’s enough, but because it dares not move.
📈 S&P Earnings Beat Expectations: Why Only Look at 7894 Points?
US Q2 earnings season delivered impressive results. S&P 500 constituents’ Q2 earnings grew 31% year-on-year, far exceeding early-year expectations; overall earnings beat expectations by 7.4%, over 90% of companies reporting earnings saw growth.
But Wall Street strategists have raised the year-end S&P 500 average target to 7894 points—only about 1% upside from current all-time highs. Full-year earnings growth expectations have been raised from 15% to 27%, but valuation expansion space is fully priced in. For the index to hit new highs, it requires continuous "outperformance" rather than steady "meeting expectations."
📊 ETF Buying Reversal: BTC Leverage Positions Reaccumulate
Bitcoin ETF fund flows fluctuate sharply. After a net inflow of about $1.1 billion from August 3 to 7, there was a net outflow of about $329 million from August 10 to 14. Ethereum ETF weakened simultaneously, with net inflows of only $16.4 million in the same period.
More noteworthy is leverage—CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin futures open interest surged by $2 billion in the second week of August. If Bitcoin falls below $58,500, a large amount of leveraged positions may trigger forced liquidations. Buying reversal and leverage buildup are signs of intensified long-short battles.
💎 Summary
Consumption retreats, earnings surge, leverage gambles—the weakness in consumption and inflation stickiness form a macro "stagflation" dilemma; earnings beat expectations and narrow target price space form a valuation contradiction; buying reversal and leverage rebuilding form the tension in the crypto market’s game. No hope for rate cuts, no dare to raise, earnings rising, leverage building—the market is pricing the second half of 2026 in the most divided way. #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
#SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓
#标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ As of August 17 Beijing time, $BTC was still fluctuating around $63,000. Over the past week, prices have pulled back, and spot ETF funds have weakened again. At least from the current capital structure, the market has not yet entered the stage of "buying risk assets with eyes closed." The most noteworthy aspect of this market is not a sudden big bullish candlestick in any track, but whether the money is still in the market and where it is headed. Currently, the total market capitalization of stablecoins remains at a high level. Although there has been a slight pullback in recent weeks, there has been no significant large-scale capital withdrawal from the crypto market. In other words, many funds may not have exited, but rather been watching and waiting. This is very important. The most common misjudgment in the latter part of a bull market is seeing a few coins rise and thinking the "full-scale altcoin season" is just around the corner. But real capital rotation often doesn't happen overnight; it starts with low-risk, highly liquid assets and gradually spreads toward higher Beta levels. $BTC remains the most important liquidity anchor for institutional capital. As long as ETF funds do not flow back into stable inflows, it will be difficult for the overall market risk appetite to truly unfold. But by comparison, $ETH's position is starting to get interesting. In recent periods, ETH ETF funds have clearly outperformed BTC, indicating that institutions are not completely unwilling to increase risk, but are seeking more flexible allocation options beyond BTC. The problem is, on-chain data has not yet fully confirmed a trend reversal, so what you really need to look at here is not a single day when inflows are high$SNDK I originally wanted to short near the previous high, but this "needle spike" almost sent me to the grave.
On the 15-minute chart, the price is still above EMA20 and EMA60, and the MACD is also in a bullish structure, but the RSI has already reached 79.88, clearly overbought in the short term. What's more notable is that when this spike appeared, the volume surged to about 20 times the 20-bar average, indicating that this was not an ordinary fluctuation but a fierce battle between bulls and bears at a high level.
Currently around 1710, the first resistance to watch is near 1775 above, and below, we need to see if 1653 can hold.
The most frustrating thing about this position is: it looks strong, but chasing it easily gets you caught by spikes.
What do you think about this move just now? Was it a shakeout of long positions, or has high-level distribution already begun?
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 拿传统收入估值硬套比特币，我觉得会失真。首页已经开始讨论“加密估值转向收入”，但当前可见比特币约63.06K、下跌0.04%，以太坊约1.88K、下跌0.22%，价格暂时没有出现重新定价的迹象。 判断比特币是否获得更高估值，我更愿意交叉看三项：ETF净流入能否持续、长期持有者供应是否明显变化，以及链上结算与手续费是否同步活跃。只讲收入而忽略稀缺性和资金流，结论很容易偏。你认为哪项指标最适合给比特币定价？$ETH $BTC In the micro game of trading psychology, when a group has been trapped for months and has experienced multiple panic washouts, the strongest obsession in their minds is no longer to make double profits, but the extremely humble four words — "break even and run".
Therefore, whenever the market rebounds near the cost line of short-term holders' positions, a massive amount of chips eager to break even will instantly flood the chain.
These speculators who have endured the panic period will rush to place sell orders to break even, forming an extremely heavy iceberg resistance band on the market. If at this time there is no off-exchange new spot buying volume several times larger than this (such as a violent net inflow from ETFs) to forcibly absorb this part of the break-even orders, the momentum of the rebound will be completely exhausted by this selling pressure in a very short time.
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 ⚠️Epic rebound but crazy short selling! Is the big chip AI rally all an illusion?
Recently, the most bizarre scene in the global tech market has appeared📉
The South Korean stock market has staged an extraordinary recovery, with the main index rising 6% in a month, the tech startup board soaring 20%, and chip and AI concept stocks collectively regaining ground, seemingly signaling a bull market restart.
But institutional shorts are not buying it at all; instead, they are aggressively increasing their short positions against the trend!
Latest data: The outstanding short balance in the South Korean stock market has surged to 19 trillion KRW, a 14% monthly increase, up 2.27 trillion KRW since the end of July.
The higher it rises, the more shorts increase; the more it rebounds, the more the market is hammered down. This operation directly tears apart the false facade of this tech rebound.
Many retail investors are fooled by the big gains, thinking the AI chip downside is fully priced in and a new rally has begun. But institutions see it very clearly:
This surge is just an oversold technical rebound, not a fundamental reversal!
The core hidden risks from last month's market crash remain unresolved: doubts about AI investment profitability, weak downstream chip demand, and the persistent high risk of a peak in the entire memory chip industry.
Here is the breakdown of the most critical underlying logic:
1. The rally is driven by leverage, not supported by earnings
The South Korean stock market is highly tied to the two memory giants Samsung and SK Hynix, relying on leveraged funds and sentiment-driven rebounds without real orders or revenue support, a typical sentiment bubble.
2. Shorts increasing = institutions hedging early
Professional funds never bet on sentiment; continuous shorting indicates institutions anticipate further correction risks. The current high valuations offer very poor risk-reward and could trigger profit-taking sell-offs anytime.
3. Chip cycle inflection point not reached
Memory chips are a highly cyclical sector; sharp rises and falls are normal. The industry is only temporarily stabilizing, not fully out of the down cycle. Once sentiment fades, the decline will be severe.
Core market-wide impacts
✅ Stock market/chip sector: This AI and memory rebound is a bull trap; avoid chasing highs at elevated levels. A likely volatile pullback will follow, with tech stock risks outweighing opportunities.
✅ Crypto AI memory sector: Sentiment in A-shares and Korean chip stocks directly affects AI memory tokens like SNDK. When the stock bubble bursts, alt memory tokens will be the first to feel the pressure. Avoid chasing overbought targets.
✅ Global risk assets: Increasing divergence in tech stocks quietly warms market risk aversion, overall bearish for the highly volatile crypto market.
In summary: Retail investors chase gains hoping for a bull market; institutions short to prevent a crash.
All current tech rebounds are speculative battles, not trend rallies. Heavy positions will be harvested!
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
#AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元
#韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨
#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 INJ has dropped to this point, and I have actually started to seriously look at it again.
Recently, I went back to review INJ.
To be honest, not many people are discussing this coin anymore.
When the market was good before, INJ was called a “god coin” by many; whenever it rose, there were all kinds of logic: DeFi, derivatives, RWA, institutional finance, deflation.
Now that the hype has cooled down, discussions have decreased.
But I actually think this is the best time to study it, more so than when everyone is shouting about it.
What interests me most about INJ has never been how fast Injective’s technology is, but its token model.
INJ has now entered a full circulation phase.
This is very important to me.
Because when I look at altcoins now, I’m increasingly wary of one thing: continuous unlocking over the next few years.
The project might be good, the ecosystem might grow, but as long as early investors, the team, and various shares keep releasing tokens, there will always be someone taking chips in the secondary market.
INJ has at least basically completed this pressure.
Looking further, there is its buyback and burn.
Injective has upgraded its past Burn Auction to a Community BuyBack, where ecosystem participants can use part of their income to buy back INJ, and the bought-back INJ is permanently destroyed.
Official data shows that over 7 million INJ have been burned so far.
I personally like this model.
But note, I like the “model,” not just because it has the word burn that I’m automatically bullish on INJ.
What really determines whether this has value is whether the Injective ecosystem can continuously generate income.
If the ecosystem has no real trading volume, no fees, no growing user base, then the so-called buyback and burn is just moving tokens from one hand to another.
So now that INJ’s price has dropped, I won’t first ask:
“Can it return to its previous high?”
I ask three other questions first.
Can Injective’s real trading volume grow again?
Can RWA, derivatives, and on-chain finance generate sustainable income?
Can this income ultimately be reflected back to INJ through buyback and burn?
If the answers to all three are yes, then at this low-attention stage, I actually think it’s worth continuing to follow INJ.
But if the ecosystem income never picks up, then no matter how beautiful the words full circulation, deflation, and buyback sound, they can’t solve the problem of insufficient demand.
This is also my biggest change in how I look at altcoins now.
I used to like to find “the next narrative.”
Now I prefer to find a closed loop:
Someone uses it → generates income → income flows back → token supply decreases → holders truly benefit.
I’m willing to spend time on projects that can run this loop.
If they can’t, no matter how sexy the story, I will slowly give up.
So INJ is still on my watchlist, and it’s not low on that list.
Not because I think it will definitely rise.
Much less because “it’s dropped so much it must be the bottom.”
But because it at least gives me a logic that can be continuously verified.
Full circulation solves supply pressure.
Ecosystem growth solves demand.
Buyback and burn solve value feedback.
What’s missing now is data to prove these three things can really connect.
If one day this closed loop works, the market will naturally reprice it.
If it doesn’t, I won’t keep making excuses for it just because I once liked it.
Coins can be studied long-term.
But don’t believe in them long-term.
Study trends, seek certainty.
Reject emotion, respect logic.
— Zero Chain Leader
⚠️ The above only represents personal research and opinions and does not constitute any investment advice. INJ is a highly volatile crypto asset; full circulation and buyback burn mechanisms do not guarantee price increases. Please make independent judgments and manage your positions and risks accordingly.
#INJ #Injective #Crypto #DeFi #RWA #OnChainFinance #Altcoin #ZeroChainLeader
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ What is the current state of BTC liquidity?
Overall, it is in a significant contraction phase, with multiple indicators hitting historical lows:
· Order book depth halved: Bitcoin's 2% order book depth dropped from about $70 million in early May to $35–40 million by the end of June
· Spot trading volume plummeted: daily volume shrank from about $200 billion at the 2025 peak to around $50 billion currently, only 25% of the peak; January 2026 spot volume fell to the lowest since November 2023; further dropped to $2.2 billion in August
· Extremely sluggish trading volume: recent volume only 95.43, a fraction of the 5-day average (4548)
· Volatility severely compressed: BTC daily Bollinger Band width is the narrowest since January, with price oscillating narrowly between $61,000 and $67,000
Five major reasons for liquidity contraction
1. Large-scale stablecoin outflows
Since 2026, total stablecoin supply shrank from $159 billion to $153.4 billion, a net decrease of $5.6 billion. Binance had a cumulative net outflow of nearly $7 billion in stablecoins in 2026; in July alone, Binance and Bybit outflowed over $2.3 billion. USDT market cap decreased by about $4 billion in 60 days, approaching historically low levels.
2. Weakened institutional inflows
Bitcoin ETFs continue net outflows, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) buying support has faded, and the market's 30-day rolling capital flow remains in net outflow.
3. Macro liquidity tightening
The Federal Reserve unexpectedly turned hawkish, removing market expectations of easing; U.S. Treasury settlement operations are expected to withdraw about $150 billion liquidity from the financial system.
4. Leverage clearing but depth not recovered
In Q2, Bitcoin and Ethereum long liquidations totaled $8.35 billion, Bitcoin open interest dropped 32%. Although leverage decreased, market depth has not recovered accordingly.
5. Seasonal trading lull
Typical summer trading activity declines, combined with a macro data vacuum, global funds have entered a defensive wait-and-see mode. $BTC $ETH $OKB #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Wow, SanDisk $SNDK is still pushing upwards.
To put it simply, the story from Investor Day is still fermenting, institutions believe that long-term contracts can smooth out the cycle, shorts are forced to keep covering, and analysts raising target prices are directly pushing the stock price higher.
But I always feel it's a bit overhyped; the consumer side is still weak, relying entirely on the cloud providers' story. Now, the good expectations for several years into the future are all priced in. If reality can't keep up with the fantasy someday, the drop will probably be ruthless. #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ #SPCX Shareholding Structure Revealed, Harvard's 13F Heavy Position The latest disclosed 13F filing unveils part of SpaceX's institutional holdings. Harvard Management Company holds about $2.21 billion in market value, instantly becoming its largest publicly disclosed U.S. stock holding, with a position accounting for over half, far exceeding the second place, TSMC, at $350 million. It should be noted that this position was not recently bought on the secondary market but is an early private placement from over a decade ago. With the IPO completed and shares circulating, the paper gains are substantial.
This holding sends two signals. First, major long-term funds are optimistic about the dual main themes of aerospace + AI. Institutions no longer simply regard SpaceX as a rocket company but benchmark it as the next generation of new infrastructure, optimistic about the long-term growth potential of Starlink and AI computing power businesses. Second, university endowment funds are appearing in clusters, with several prestigious schools like the University of California also holding large positions, as long-term funds collectively enter to boost market sentiment.
However, the positive news should not be overinterpreted. Harvard's position is an old one with deep unrealized gains, with no short-term chasing logic, and there is always the possibility of reduction and realization later. The biggest current risk comes from high valuation; after a short squeeze rebound, expectations are fully priced in. If satellite internet and aerospace projects fall short of expectations, a valuation correction could easily follow.
Overall, the news is sentimentally positive but unlikely to independently drive a new round of unilateral large gains. Going forward, focus on tracking more major institutional buying and selling movements. $BTC $ETH $SPCX