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To be honest, after watching the market all day today, I do feel a bit uneasy. ETH has been stuck stubbornly around 1900 all morning, with trading volume continuously shrinking—a typical volume stalemate. The signal for a breakout is getting closer, but neither bulls nor bears dare to make the first move. An interesting contrast emerges: my XAUT system actually gives a bullish signal. As a physical gold-backed token issued by Tether, XAUT repeatedly tests support at 4382 points. Every dip is firmly supported by buy orders, showing strong resilience from safe-haven buyers, which sharply contrasts with the weakness of mainstream coins. On the other hand, BTC is the most laid-back, steadily holding around 64000 in a horizontal consolidation. The 4-hour chart shows a standard box pattern with no momentum on either side, completely waiting for external news to catalyze movement. ETH’s situation is particularly awkward. The 1900 support is repeatedly tested, while DeFi capital flows are stagnant, on-chain activity is sluggish, and there is no incremental capital entering to push it upward. It simply lacks the confidence to break through. A brief summary of the current landscape: BTC: Box consolidation, mostly waiting and watching; ETH: Volume contraction stuck at a key level, breakout window approaching, lacking capital support; XAUT (on-chain gold): Safe-haven funds quietly positioning, solid bottom support, bullish signals dominate. #SanDisk closes up over 8%, long-term agreements in focus $ETH $BTC Trader GouZong$LAB has crashed so badly! Is the project team still thinking about dumping to crash the market? This afternoon, they transferred over 9 million $LAB tokens into 10 new wallets. Project team address: 0x3E83f85f3CDD47d9e9eCfBa83F6C383D7f5011E2$CORE This morning the official Twitter released a narrative: Real usage means the real value of Coretoshis. It seems logically clear but is essentially a carefully designed rhetoric to divert public opinion. The market continues to be under pressure, with many holders deeply underwater, everyone focusing on the coin price, unlocking sell pressure, and incremental funds. The official deliberately avoids all difficulties in the secondary market, forcibly shifting public attention to on-chain ecosystem activity. A highly misleading logical switch is right before our eyes: Coretoshis ecosystem interaction heating up ≠ continuous inflow of off-exchange funds buying CORE. Ecosystem stock turnover only creates attractive data but hardly generates new buying demand. The NFT ecosystem heat cannot directly support the native token’s price. The continuously released unlocked chips and the heavily stacked trapped positions above are deliberately avoided in reality. No matter how impressive the ecosystem data is, it is merely material for packaging the narrative and cannot hedge the endless selling pressure. Do not treat ecosystem activity as a reassurance for a market reversal. Titles are just empty names; no matter how many chips there are, they cannot attract incremental funds. ⚠️This is an objective review of publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice18/08/2026 | Macro & Crypto Analysis A ship leaving the Strait of Hormuz was hit, the engine room was damaged, and a crew member was killed. If we just look at this as war news, we are missing the most important part. What's more concerning is the market's chain reaction: Hormuz → energy → oil supplies → inflation → the Fed → Treasury yield → the cost of capital → liquidity → Bitcoin & Altcoins. Brent has surpassed $91 a barrel, WTI is around $85, while the 30-year Treasury yield is around 5.33%A Trader Bragged About Shorting SanDisk Near Its Peak. Here's What Actually Holds Up. $SNDK has had one of the wildest runs of the year — from roughly $43 a year ago to an all-time high above $2,354 in June, and still trading near $1,700–1,800 in mid-August. A trader publicly announcing a large short position at that level, framing it as a bet on their own credibility, is real market behavior worth unpacking — separate from whether the trade itself is wise. Some of the reasoning is grounded. The stock did briefly spike into the $1,800s intraday before pulling back, matching the rally pattern described. David Tepper's Appaloosa did exit its SanDisk stake in Q2, and Renaissance Technologies trimmed its position again this quarter after already cutting it roughly a third in Q1 — genuine signs that some big holders are taking profits after a historic run. The underlying story is real too: SanDisk is riding a NAND/AI-storage demand cycle alongside SK Hynix and Micron, and cycles like that do eventually cool. Where the claim gets shakier: the specific chart indicators (a precise RSI reading, a named double-top level) aren't independently verifiable from outside data, and a claim that a hedge fund slashed its stake by "over 99%" doesn't match what public filings actually show — the real cut was much smaller. The bigger point: even a well-reasoned short can get crushed by a stock still in a powerful uptrend. Being "overbought" has meant different things at different points in this rally already. Institutional trimming is a data point, not a signal — and a public bet framed around personal reputation is a rhetorical device, not evidence the trade will work. Not investment advice — figures reflect publicly reported data as of mid-August 2026 and can change quickly. #XiaomiQ2Earnings #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals $BTC $SNDK $ETH The core idea is BTC is showing price resilience, but the supporting demand picture is still mixed. 🟠 1. BTC holding $64K is positive — but not confirmation Bitcoin recently recovered from the ~$62.5K area and moved back toward $64K. That matters because buyers are still defending the lower end of the current range. However, BTC has spent much of August inside roughly $62K–$65K, with rallies repeatedly losing momentum near the upper boundary. So $64K currently looks more like range recovery than a confirmed breakout. 💰 2. ETF flows are the important divergence The ~$385M figure is legitimate for the latest reported weekly period: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $385.2M of net outflows through August 14, reversing the previous week's roughly $865M inflow. That's important because ETFs have become a significant source of spot BTC demand. But there's an important update: August 17 itself showed a strong reversal, with Farside data showing approximately $297.5M of net inflows across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. So I would describe the situation as: Weekly flows = bearish/weak Latest session = encouraging Trend = not confirmed yet That's more nuanced than simply saying “ETF flows are negative.” 🧲 3. Why BTC can hold despite ETF selling Price doesn't need ETF inflows every day to remain stable. Other buyers can absorb supply: Spot-market buyers Long-term holders OTC/institutional demand Derivatives positioning Short covering Reduced selling pressure Therefore, BTC holding $64K despite recent ETF withdrawals is actually a relative strength signal. The question is whether that strength can continue if fresh liquidity doesn't expand. 📊 4. $65K is the immediate technical test The $65K area is becoming important because BTC has repeatedly struggled to establish a sustained breakout above it. I'd separate the levels like this: $62K–$63K → major near-term support zone $64K → recovery/neutral zone $65K+ → breakout confirmation A clean move above $65K isn't enough by itself. Ideally you'd want: $MU Micron current price 968, dropping all the way down from 1036, a single-day plunge of 7%, the market looks extremely brutal. Market news shouts: AI capital expenditure concerns ease, storage sector迎来价值重估. To put it plainly: the market had been worried about AI expansion plans shrinking, now that concern has dissipated, theoretically storage stocks should see a rebound. But the reality is completely opposite, Micron plunges, SanDisk falls in sync, enough to prove this round of "revaluation" has capital flows completely opposite to public expectations. Key technical indicators at a glance Resistance: SAR 1032.95, firmly suppressing above; Short-term watershed: just broke below the 21-day moving average 983.74; Key support: 55-day moving average 950.36, currently the only defense line; Indicator status: KDJ's J value reached -0.54, RSI6 dropped to 31.3, approaching oversold territory. Market strength comparison: Micron's trend is weaker than Hynix, already lost the 21-day moving average, only the 950 barrier remains. Once the 950 support breaks, the downside correction space will fully open. Sector internal capital divergence SanDisk, Hynix, and Micron all belong to the storage track, but their trends are vastly different: SanDisk is the strongest in the sector, Hynix in the middle, Micron the weakest at the bottom. The same industry, three different market conditions, the core is that capital inside the sector is selectively allocated. SanDisk is tied to long-term major customer orders + strong AI storage narrative, capital recognition is maxed out; in contrast, Micron's story is weaker, making it hard to attract long-term incremental capital. Let's talk: at the 950 level for Micron, is it suitable to bottom-fish and take over now? Or is the storage sector about to start a collective pullback? Ask friends who chased Micron above 1000, is your position still good now? Among the three storage giants, I only have a long-term bullish view on SanDisk. Hynix and Micron have no fundamental flaws, but the market trend has already clearly written the capital attitude. Welcome to share your positions and discuss rationally. Trader DogZong The crypto market's short-term moves are tougher than the US stock market, but this is not a signal to chase recklessly. $BTC stands at 64,061, $ETH is still grinding below 1,894, showing a clear strength gap. Whoever blindly rushes now is likely to catch the falling knife. $BTC 64,061 +0.65% $ETH 1,894 -0.52% $QQQ -0.16% $SPY -0.47% $IBIT +2.22% $DXY -0.01% $GLD +1.00% In terms of volume, $BTC +0.8% attracts the most capital, while $SNDK -1.7%, $ETH -0.4%, $SPCX -1.6%, $SKHYNIX -4.9% show semiconductors taking hits, with sentiment still tied to AI. Crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel inflation expectations, US Treasuries and Fed outlooks are suppressing valuations, and the AI/semiconductor sector acts as the breathing valve for $QQQ and $SPY. $BTC is pressuring $ETH, and $ETH can't keep up, indicating funds only hold the strong; $IBIT +2.22% is fiercer than $BTC +0.65%, ETFs are buying in, but don't mistake a front-runner for spot strength; $QQQ -0.16% small dip isn't bad, $SPY -0.47% is weaker; $DXY -0.01% didn't continue to drain liquidity, allowing risk assets to breathe; $GLD +1.00% is still rising, safe-haven demand hasn't fully withdrawn. A fierce analysis, but the rise and fall still depend on Trump. No rush now, wait to see who shows weakness first. #BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 In the past 5 trading days, among the 25 most liquid stocks in the US market, 5 are directly related to Crypto—Strategy, BitMine, Robinhood, Coinbase, Circle Telegram. That's 5/25, or 20% of the seats. Such a concentration was unimaginable two years ago. Previously, investing in Crypto meant only buying coins, but now the path has completely changed. If you want to bet on $BTC, you can buy Strategy, which is essentially BTC's corporate treasury; if you want to bet on ETH, you can look at ecosystem companies like BitMine. If you don't want to choose sides, just buy infrastructure: Coinbase handles trading, Circle manages stablecoins, and Robinhood is responsible for bringing traditional users into Crypto. But what's more noteworthy is not which stock has risen, but that the pricing logic has changed. BTC now has three entry points: ETF, corporate treasury, and stock market; $ETH also has ETF and ecosystem companies in this chain. In other words, Crypto has already developed a second price discovery market—beyond the coin market, the stock market is also pricing BTC and ETH. The liquidity, pre-market and after-hours trading, and options in the US stock market are all joining in. It is no exaggeration to say that Crypto is transforming from an "alternative asset" into a first-class citizen in the US stock liquidity pool. This 20% ratio may just be the beginning. This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.#U.S. Treasury Advances GENIUS Stablecoin Rules "Offshore Coins Changing Hands: New U.S. Treasury Regulations Are Driving Offshore Stablecoin Market Makers to the Brink" On August 17, 2026, the U.S. Treasury announced the implementation details of the GENIUS Act, directly shutting down sales and market-making channels for unlicensed offshore stablecoins in the U.S. The new plan sets two critical deadlines: from January 2027, issuing coins in the U.S. must have full licensing, and from July 2028, all unlicensed coins will be completely banned; violations in market-making can result in fines up to $1 million per incident and 5 years imprisonment. The White House has completely rejected the $1 billion exemption and 36-month transition period, confining all stablecoin underlying assets to 100% U.S. Treasury bonds and cash equivalents. Issuers collect billions in Treasury interest, but the secondary market circulation must bear the cost. With compliance enforcement cutting deep, the first to bleed is spot market depth. Market makers, to avoid million-dollar fines, are accelerating withdrawal of order liquidity from offshore trading pairs, directly widening bid-ask spreads and slippage. Retail holders of offshore assets face tighter OTC deposit and withdrawal card freezes and scrutiny, while spot trading and contract funding rates suffer dual erosion. As the U.S. dollar reserve pool grows ever higher, the wild premium for offshore liquidity is being completely erased by a tightly woven compliance net. $BTC $xSPCX finally dropped, how are the short sellers who got trapped? 1. It has risen 30% since the end of July. All the bears who were pessimistic due to the unlocking event are now stuck at the foot of the mountain. 2. Huge divergence on Wall Street: Morgan Stanley's baseline target is 300, bull case 600, Raymond James gives 800, Morningstar says the core business is only worth 40. The average target price is 227, the current price discount looks tempting, but the price-to-sales ratio is 76 times, fully betting on the Starship and orbital AI story. 3. A big risk hangs: Alphabet holds $94 billion in shares, about $80 billion unlocking soon, expected selling pressure looming overhead. 4. RSI is high at 67, 30-day range 104.9-149.6, currently hugging the upper edge. My thinking: It's an independent market target, small position allocation can hedge the broader market. But now it's buying near resistance, wait for a pullback to 135-138 before considering, exit if it breaks below 130. #财报观察员: Xiaomi Q2 Earnings Released, Is the Auto Segment Saving the Day or Are Phones Holding It Back? Xiaomi Q2 earnings released, US Treasury yields hit highest since 2007, SanDisk rises nearly 9% — August 18 Hotspot Quick Review Good evening, brothers, tonight's hotspots are quite dense, let's go through them one by one. 📱 Xiaomi Q2 Earnings: Revenue 108.9 billion, Auto Deliveries Exceed 100,000 Units Xiaomi Group released its Q2 2026 earnings after market close today. Key figures: · Quarterly revenue 108.9 billion yuan, breaking 100 billion again · Adjusted net profit 6.2 billion yuan · Smart electric vehicles and AI innovation business revenue 24.9 billion yuan, up 17.1% year-over-year · New car quarterly deliveries 104,199 units, up 28.2% year-over-year · Auto business operating loss 2.6 billion yuan, gross margin 19.2% Mixed feelings. Auto volume is growing but still losing money. Phone business affected by rising storage chip prices, showing "volume down, price up." The pass-through effect of storage price hikes downstream is already visible; Xiaomi's earnings report is a vivid example. 📉 30-Year US Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2007 The US Treasury sell-off is intensifying. The 30-year Treasury yield rose overnight to 5.304%, intraday breaking 5.31%, the highest since 2007. Three core reasons: ongoing expansion of US government fiscal deficit, large increase in long-term Treasury supply, inflation persistently above the Federal Reserve's target for the past five years. What does the surge in long-term yields mean? Risk-free rates are high, reducing the appeal of risk assets. Although BTC stood above 64,000 today, if Treasury yields continue to rise, the medium-term pressure on the crypto market cannot be ignored. 💾 SanDisk Rises Nearly 9%, Long-Term Agreements as Core Catalyst The storage sector continues to surge. SanDisk closed up 8.94% overnight, intraday rising over 11%. The core logic behind this rally is not short-term sentiment but the market repricing SanDisk's long-term fundamentals. SanDisk has signed long-term agreements with 8 customers, including 3 major US hyperscale cloud providers. These agreements are expected to cover about 50% of FY2027 shipments, rising to about two-thirds in FY2028. Total value approximately $93.9 billion, with price floors corresponding to about 80% gross margin. Previously, storage chips were volatile and unpredictable; now SanDisk has locked in its revenue base for the coming years. It is shifting from a "cyclical stock" to a "growth stock." The logic for storage chips is strengthening. 🥇 Gold Surpasses $4430, Options Market Turns Bullish Spot gold broke through $4430/oz, New York futures surpassed $4490. Since August, gold has gained over 8%. In the options market, traders are paying higher premiums to bet on further gold price increases. Institutions say gold can rise over 60%. Geopolitical risks rising + soaring Treasury yields + stubborn inflation, gold's safe-haven logic remains intact. 🔮 OKX Prophet Season 2 Officially Launched OKX officially launched "Prophet Season 2" with a total prize pool of $600,000. Users can use free XP to make predictions on real-world events like football, esports, macroeconomics, F1, and share the prize pool. 💡 Summary Looking at tonight's hotspots together: Xiaomi Q2 earnings are mixed, auto volume growing but still losing money, storage price hikes pressuring downstream. US Treasury yields hit highest since 2007, exerting medium-term pressure on risk assets. SanDisk locked in future revenue with $93.9 billion long-term agreements, strengthening storage sector logic. Gold surpasses $4430, safe-haven demand rising. BTC stood above 64,000 today, but sustainability depends on whether Treasury yields can stabilize. The storage chip trend continues; be mindful of the pace after recent gains. Brothers, have you caught this storage rally? Let's discuss in the comments.👇#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #OKX预言家第二季正式上线 $OKB $SOL Seeing the U.S. 30 year Treasury yield reach levels not seen since 2007 definitely gets my attention. Long-term yields might not get the same hype as CPI or Fed meetings, but I think they tell us something important about what the bond market is pricing in inflation expectations, government borrowing, growth, and where interest rates could stay over the longer term. What I’m watching now is the ripple effect Higher long-term yields can make borrowing more expensive, put pressure on expensive stocks, and make bonds more attractive compared with riskier assets. For crypto, I think the interesting question is whether BTC can remain strong even while yields stay elevated. Personally, I wouldn’t look at this as automatically bullish or bearish. I see it more as another sign that the “higher for longer” conversation may not be finished yet. #30YYieldHits2007High $BTC #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ This is a "short-term performance under pressure, but long-term transformation logic remains intact" earnings report. 1. The biggest issue: profit decline is quite obvious In Q2 this year, Xiaomi's revenue was ¥108.9 billion, down 6.1% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit was only ¥6.2 billion, down 42.6% year-on-year. In other words, revenue only slightly declined, but profit dropped significantly. The main reasons are price increases in storage chips and other components, along with fierce competition in the smartphone market, causing the overall gross margin to fall from about 22.5% in the same period last year to 19.8%. So from the earnings report itself, the short-term performance is definitely not impressive. 2. Smartphone business: sales volume declined, but products are upgrading In Q2, smartphone shipments were 31.2 million units, a noticeable year-on-year decline. However, the average selling price has risen to ¥1351, a record high, and the sales proportion of high-end smartphones priced above ¥3000 in mainland China also increased to 32.1%. Simply put: Xiaomi is shifting from "selling more phones" to "selling more expensive phones." This direction is correct, but the current problem is that the move toward high-end has not yet fully offset the pressure from declining sales volume and rising costs. 3. Automotive is currently the biggest highlight In Q2, Xiaomi delivered 104,200 cars, a 28.2% year-on-year increase, and new business revenue from automobiles, AI, and others reached ¥24.9 billion. $XIAOMI Several months have passed since the $BTC halving, and the market did not immediately surge as many expected, leading some to question whether the "halving narrative" has lost its validity. However, this conclusion is too hasty. Historically, the main price rally after each halving occurs 6 to 18 months later, not on the day or the following month. The essence of the halving is that the daily new supply decreases from about 900 coins to about 450 coins. This change has a negligible short-term impact in a market with daily trading volumes often in the trillions of dollars. But its power lies in accumulation—a reduction of 13,500 new coins per month, or 164,000 fewer coins per year. If ETFs continue to flow in and long-term holders keep locking up coins, the reduced new supply will gradually trigger a qualitative change from quantitative change. The current market is in the "incubation period" of the halving effect. After miner revenues are halved and come under pressure, some mining farms are forced to sell more inventory, increasing short-term selling pressure. This "post-halving sell-off" is also part of historical patterns—miners need to adapt to the new income structure, weaker miners shut down, and hash rate temporarily adjusts. Once these short-term adjustments conclude, supply tightening will truly begin to transmit to price. Those disappointed by the halving are likely measuring a narrative that operates on a yearly cycle by days.$SPX pulled back after hitting resistance at 7800 points, with the market showing an alternating expanding triangle pattern characterized by rising highs and falling lows. The core issue currently is whether the volatility expansion under high valuation represents chip distribution or a phase correction. Structurally, the index experienced a sharp rejection at wave 6 reaching the upper boundary of 7800 points, accompanied by lower lows at waves 1, 3, and 5 and higher highs at waves 2, 4, and 6. This amplified oscillation reflects intensified bullish and bearish divergence, with price stability decreasing. In terms of driving structure hierarchy, rising long-term interest rates suppress high valuations, forming the main downward pressure. Historically, the high 30-year yield limits upward momentum, and whether the support at low point 5 holds will determine if the consolidation range evolves into a trend reversal. The bullish scenario requires the price to stop falling at the lower boundary and complete a volume contraction turnover. If Fed rate cut expectations significantly increase and the index breaks above the 7800 resistance with volume expansion, the top distribution hypothesis will be rejected, and the structure will shift to trend continuation. The bearish scenario triggers after confirming resistance at the 7800 upper boundary, with bears pushing the price below the support at low point 5. Sustained high long-term yields will accelerate the breakdown, confirming that the amplified volatility pattern is a high-level chip distribution. The structure invalidation point is clearly set at the 7800 upper boundary. A volume breakout with a solid bullish candlestick above this level means the expanding triangle's upper resistance is invalidated, and the market will return to a unilateral uptrend. The most critical variables to watch over the next 7 days are the volume breakout at the 7800 resistance and the movement of the 30-year yield. #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高The Bhutan royal government has taken action again. The latest on-chain data shows that its related wallet transferred 300 BTC to a new wallet just a few minutes ago. It then flowed to Bn, which, at the price at that time, amounts to about $19.28 million. What is even more noteworthy is that last month Bhutan also transferred 66 BTC to an exchange. A single transfer of 300 BTC is not enough to change the market trend by itself. What is truly worth paying attention to is the trend that "Bhutan is continuously reducing its BTC reserves." Previously, its holdings were close to 13,000 BTC, and there have been multiple large transfers this year, indicating that these BTC are not simply long-term cold wallet hoards but are more likely used for fiscal fund allocation, cashing out, or asset rebalancing. Therefore, I am more inclined to interpret this news as "potential selling pressure" rather than "immediate dumping." After all, transferring to an exchange does not mean it has already been sold, but if large BTC flows to Bn continue, the market needs to be wary of the marginal selling pressure caused by continuous cashing out from a national-level address. $BTC The core of the "Clarity Act" is to define the jurisdiction of the SEC and CFTC, clarify token attributes (securities vs commodities), and provide exemptions for DeFi developers. If passed (compliance dividend): CFTC leads digital commodities, breaking SEC's "regulation by litigation"; Mainstream tokens (ETH, SOL, etc.) escape securities litigation risk, compliance thresholds for spot ETFs and derivatives drop sharply; Traditional big funds like Wall Street and brokerages enter compliance, legal risks for non-custodial developers eliminated. If not passed (fragmentation and offshore): Regulation remains litigation-driven, altcoins face long-term compliance discounts; Funds concentrate on BTC for hedging, startup teams and liquidity accelerate flow to friendly regions like UAE, Singapore, and Europe. 30-year US Treasury yield hits a new high again, will the US stock market fall? #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Logically, as the long-term US Treasury yield rises as the risk-free rate, the returns on risk assets become less attractive. Therefore, funds flow from risk assets to long-term US Treasuries, causing risk asset prices to drop. Observing the past year, when the 30-year US Treasury yield breaks new highs, the US stock market does experience declines, but these drops are short-lived. This may be because funds flow from risk assets to the 30-year US Treasury, causing the price of the 30-year Treasury to rise, and thus the yield to fall. So we see, several times in the past year: as the 30-year US Treasury yield reaches a new high and then begins to decline, the US stock market first falls and then continues to rise again. The most common source of misjudgment in financial reports is often not the numbers themselves, but focusing solely on the net profit figure. Bithumb reported a net loss of 108.691 billion KRW (approximately 76.44 million USD) in the first half of this year. At first glance, this seems to indicate that the exchange has lost its profitability, but the reality is not that simple. Breaking down the income statement reveals that Bithumb's exchange business remains profitable. The real changes in the income statement are mainly due to losses from crypto asset disposals, valuation losses, and litigation provisions. In the first half of 2026, Bithumb achieved operating revenue of 168.77 billion KRW (about 119 million USD), a year-on-year decrease of 48.7%; operating profit was 14.93 billion KRW (about 10.5 million USD), down 83.4% year-on-year. What truly dragged the company into loss were non-operating items. During the reporting period, Bithumb's non-operating expenses reached 155.05 billion KRW (about 109 million USD), resulting in a net loss of 108.69 billion KRW (about 76.44 million USD). In contrast, the company’s net profit for the same period in 2025 was 55.04 billion KRW (about 38.71 million USD). In the first half of the year, the company recognized crypto asset disposal gains of 11.99 billion KRW (about 843 thousand USD), while also recognizing disposal losses of 73.36 billion KRW (about 51.59 million USD). After offsetting these, the net disposal loss was approximately 61.37 billion KRW (about 43.16 million USD). The financial report states that these crypto asset disposals are mainly related to business uses such as user activity rewards and blockchain network fees. Notably, the disposal loss for the same period in 2025 was only about 4.18 million USD, which increased to about 51.59 million USD in the first half of 2026—more than 12 times the previous year. It is worth mentioning that on February 6, Bithumb experienced a Bitcoin misissuance incident. Bithumb later disclosed that the incident involved mistakenly issuing Bitcoin to 695 users, with a recovery rate exceeding 99%. However, the company did not separately disclose the final financial loss caused by this incident in the half-year report. Additionally, the company confirmed a crypto asset valuation loss of 7.19 billion KRW (about 5.05 million USD). Combining the net disposal loss and valuation loss, the net loss related to crypto assets was approximately 68.55 billion KRW (about 48.21 million USD). As of the end of 2025, Bithumb’s litigation provisions were 2.68 billion KRW (about 1.88 million USD); by the end of June 2026, this figure had increased to 39.55 billion KRW (about 27.81 million USD), an increase of 36.87 billion KRW (about 25.93 million USD) in half a year. This increase is very close to the approximately 36.8 billion KRW fine imposed on Bithumb by the Korea Financial Services Commission in March. The regulator found that Bithumb violated anti-money laundering obligations, customer identity verification, and transaction restrictions for virtual asset service providers. Putting together the approximately 68.55 billion KRW (about 48.21 million USD) net loss from crypto assets and the approximately 36.87 billion KRW (about 25.93 million USD) increase in litigation provisions, the total is about 105.42 billion KRW (about 74.14 million USD), which is very close to the company’s half-year net loss of 108.69 billion KRW (about 76.44 million USD). Of course, this is only an approximate comparison to help understand the sources of profit and cannot be directly treated as a complete reconciliation of the income statement, as taxes, interest income, and other non-operating items also affect the final result. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Friends, 30-year U.S. Treasuries have risen above 5.3%, the highest since 2007. To be honest, I wasn't surprised at all, but every time I climbed upward, it made me uneasy. To put it simply, the yield on U.S. Treasuries is the annualized return you can get from lending money to the U.S. government. The higher the yield, the more the bond is being sold off and the price falls. The long-term side is bonds over 10 years old, focusing on whether the market can still hold onto inflation and fiscal policy long into the future; The short end is within two years, following the Fed's policy expectations. Reveal the real data. Last Friday, the 30-year stock broke through 5.3% in one fell swoop, reaching 5.31% intraday, the highest since June 2007. In 10 years, it climbed to 4.72%. But the short-term end has remained at 4.17% over two years. The long end is hard, the short end is loose, and the crack keeps getting bigger and bigger. Why can't the long end be pressed down? Three forces are twisting. First, the supply is too aggressive. The U.S. annual fiscal deficit is nearly $2 trillion, and just last week the market absorbed $125 billion in medium- and long-term U.S. Treasuries. Even more aggressive is the AI financing wave competing with the government for long money—investment-grade corporate bond issuance in August reached $145.2 billion, setting a new record since 2020, with Alphabet alone issuing $25 billion. Tech giants are developing long-term bonds to focus on hash rate, competing with US Treasuries for the same batch of long-duration funds. Second, major overseas creditors are leaving. In June, overall US Treasury holdings were reduced by 72.1 billion, with Japan decreasing by 26.4 billion in a single month, the largest drop in China, China reducing holdings by 25.9 billion, the lowest since 2008, and the UK also cutting by 8.7 billion. Third, the most telling thing—long-term pressure is not on the United StatesHormuz "Chokehold"! Iran's Triple Strike, Bitcoin's $64K Bottom Dream Cools Off! Iran's three warnings in three days: Strait remains closed, commercial ships face "joint liability" sanctions, and self-declared war diplomacy yields dual wins. The Middle East powder keg reignites, risk assets just caught a breath but are pushed back into risk-off mode. Regarding BTC: Currently stuck at the $64K "false breakout" threshold, the resistance at $64,500 is even harder to break with volume. Geopolitical risks suppress incremental capital chasing highs; the support at $63,200 is under test. If the situation worsens, panic funds may lead the sell-off of high-volatility assets, and BTC could retest $62K-$61K. In the medium term, the blockade pushing oil prices higher intensifies inflation stickiness, delays rate cut expectations, and suppresses the rate-sensitive BTC valuation; however, the US-Iran confrontation escalation might also trigger the "digital gold" anti-censorship narrative, creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Regarding ETH: Relatively more fragile. Although the ETH/BTC ratio has broken through, the sharp drop in overall market risk appetite will close the catch-up window. The $1,900 resistance may become the starting point of a new round of selling pressure, further delaying the altcoin season logic. Conclusion: BTC "not falling" does not mean "able to rise." Iran's warnings are like laying down spikes on the runway for takeoff. At this moment, attention should be on oil prices and the VIX index, not candlestick charts. Cash and gold hold short-term advantages; BTC needs to wait for the true bottom after geopolitical risks are fully priced in. $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ 老铁们，小米中报刚出，满屏都在吵汽车救场还是手机拖后腿。我说句实话，这俩说法都错。 先甩总盘子。 上半年营收2080亿，同比掉8.4%。归母净利141亿，同比掉37.9%。收入跌一位数，利润跌快四成——这剪刀差就是全部矛盾。 真正塌的不是汽车也不是手机，是做生意赚的钱。 营业净收益，就是真靠卖货赚的钱，从199亿直接掉到63亿，少了68%。更狠的是价值变动收益占税前利润42%，去年才22%。翻译过来——账上173亿税前利润，四成二是投资资产升值和公允价值变动兜的，不是卖手机卖车挣的。 现金流才最吓人。 经营现金流从280亿掉到20亿，掉了92.7%。赚100块利润只有14块真变成现金进来，去年是123块。存货周转从65天拉到90天，货在压库；有息债务从468亿涨到634亿，多借了三分之一。这报表，利润跌37%，真金白银跌近70%，缺口是投资收益填的。 说回汽车，长的是营收不是利润。 二季度交付约9.95万台，同比涨22.8%，月销3万站住了，这个平台是真稳。可一季度这板块经营亏31亿，毛利率从23.2%掉到20.1%。卖得越This matter needs to be viewed from a different angle; don't just focus on the old narrative of "derivatives launch boosts trading volume." Coinbase aligning its perpetual contract infrastructure closer to the Deribit system is, frankly, performing surgery on the pricing power of BTC and ETH — from now on, the price movement won't be dictated by the spot market's small buy and sell orders alone, but will depend on options, perpetuals, funding rates, volatility, and the mood of market makers. In the past, retail investors focused only on candlestick charts: BTC at 64,000, ETH at 1900, then drawing some support and resistance lines, thinking they understood the market. But professional markets watch a different set of indicators: implied volatility, term structure, put-call ratios, Gamma exposure, ETF creation/redemption data. The gap between these two perspectives is greater than the distance from Earth to the Moon. For BTC, this is a necessary path toward maturity — the more it resembles a global macro asset, the more it requires complex derivative tools to hedge risks. Institutions entering the market are not just here to take the other side; while buying ETFs, they may have already set up short positions in the options market. So price fluctuations are no longer just the genuine intentions of buyers and sellers but are also influenced by market makers' hedging and volatility strategies. When volatility is low and suppressed, once it breaks out, these hedging positions can become accelerators. ETH is even more interesting. It inherently has high volatility and a rich ecosystem narrative. The options market acts like a sensitive thermometer, reflecting market bets on upward or downward moves in advance. If ETH lingers around $1900 for a while and the options market suddenly shifts collectively in one direction, the spot market is very likely to be pulled along. But specialization also means increased harshness. More derivatives do not mean easier profits; on the contrary, price volatility becomes more complex — what you think is a bullish move might be options sellers suppressing volatility; what you think is a sudden crash might be Gamma hedging and leveraged liquidations triggering simultaneously. Simply chasing news will likely become less effective. So ultimately, we need to adjust our approach. BTC will increasingly resemble a macro hedge asset, and ETH will increasingly resemble a high-volatility tech asset. Those who don't understand volatility will only see half the price story. The signals for the next market cycle might not come from the spot market shouting first but from the options market sensing it ahead.As of today, August 18, $BTC has returned to around $64,000, maintaining a slight intraday gain; ETH fluctuated around $1,900, while SOL was near $76, showing no obvious one-sided trend overall. After this afternoon, the market actually felt a bit more comfortable than a few days ago: BTC dropped to around $62K→ buying took hold → climbed back to $64K→ The market did not show obvious panic, but there is a very important detail: BTC is rising, but altcoins are not fully following. This indicates that funds are now more likely to return to BTC first, rather than fully entering risk assets. Today, BTC's market share continues to rise, currently about 58.8%, which actually indicates that funds are still cautious. ETH is no exception. ETH → fluctuated around $1,900 → did not clearly keep up with BTC → Funds are still watching SOL. Although ETF funds have performed well recently, with a net inflow of about $10.26 million from Solana-related ETFs last week—the strongest week since May—the price still hasn't truly broken out of a strong trend. So now, I won't directly interpret today's rally as the start of a new bull market. More likely: BTC holds at $62K → buying begins to resume → BTC climbs back above $64K → ETH waiting for relay Watch mainstream coins like → SOL → altcoins have not yet spread across the board. Moreover, there is another external pressure today: ** US Treasury yields and oil prices are rising, combined with uncertainty in the Middle EastBank of America 13F Shows Major Portfolio Shift: Slashes MicroStrategy by 70%, but Aggressively Increases BlackRock Ethereum ETF by 29 Times? Wall Street's top investment banks are undergoing a drastic fundamental paradigm shift in their approach to crypto assets. According to Bank of America's latest Q2 13F institutional holdings filing, as of June 30, its MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock holdings sharply contracted, dropping from approximately 3.97 million shares at the end of Q1 to about 1.18 million shares, a massive 70% reduction in a single quarter. In stark contrast to the decisive profit-taking on MicroStrategy, Bank of America has shown an extremely aggressive accumulation stance on Ethereum spot assets. Its holdings of BlackRock's spot Ethereum ETF (ETHA) surged from a mere 67,500 shares at the end of Q1 to about 1.98 million shares, a nearly 29-fold increase, with the reported market value climbing to approximately $23.6 million at quarter-end. On one side is the massive sell-off of the market's strongest "Bitcoin high-leverage shadow stock" over recent years; on the other is the retaliatory build-up of a compliant Ethereum spot ETF. This near-extreme long-short portfolio reshuffle by Bank of America sends three highly penetrating signals to the entire market: First, Wall Street is accelerating the divestment of MicroStrategy's high premium bubble. Before spot ETFs were fully popularized, institutions generally viewed MicroStrategy as the best leveraged proxy to capture Bitcoin's upward volatility. However, as MicroStrategy frequently relied on convertible bonds and equity issuance to stack debt, its premium over relative net asset value (mNAV) was pushed to extremely high levels. For top-tier financial institutions like Bank of America, which emphasize risk control and capital constraints, locking in billions in profits at high levels and reducing exposure to high-leverage shadow stocks is a standard and rational risk-reduction move. Second, spot ETFs are officially replacing traditional proxy stocks as the standard tool for institutional asset allocation. Previously, institutions bought MicroStrategy as a "compromise they had to make," but now, with spot ETFs from leading issuers like BlackRock fully rolled out, traditional long-term funds have a direct vehicle with very low fees, no custody transparency risk, and no debt default concerns, instantly dismantling the rigid allocation to traditional intermediary proxy stocks. Third, traditional giants are independently building positions based on Ethereum's "infrastructure value." A 29-fold increase in position size is not retail-style blind speculation but reflects that Wall Street's top buy-side firms are reconstructing Ethereum from a simple crypto token into a long-term foundational asset supporting global real-world asset tokenization (RWA), on-chain clearing, and smart contract financial infrastructure. Backed by BlackRock's absolute endorsement in institutional clearing, Ethereum is officially entering the core asset pools of traditional sovereign and commercial banks. From buying shadow stocks with leverage to buying spot ETFs for broad asset allocation, Wall Street's understanding of the crypto world has moved beyond rough speculation into a new era of refined specialization. Bank of America's massive reduction in MicroStrategy and 29-fold accumulation of Ethereum ETF—do you think this represents Wall Street's bet on Ethereum ecosystem catch-up, or is it simply an institutional tool-driven portfolio adjustment? In your portfolio for the second half of the year, do you favor highly elastic Bitcoin concept stocks or compliant, settled Ethereum spot assets? --- The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH $SNDK Impact projection on BTC: Bearish pressure: The surge in energy prices combined with inflation expectations is pushing up bond yields in developed economies such as U.S. Treasuries. The rise in risk-free interest rates increases the opportunity cost of holding risk assets like BTC, potentially limiting upside in the short term. Bullish support: The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to 99.29 (a two-and-a-half-month low) and broken below its upward trendline. A weak dollar continues to provide a floor of support for Bitcoin. Summary: The current macro environment shows clear divergence. BTC is caught in a fierce tug-of-war between "high inflation expectations (bearish)" and "weak dollar (bullish)." Close attention is needed on upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve policy signals. Macro anomaly: Diesel crack spread breaks 100, hitting a historic high, BTC faces multiple macro battles Key data: The U.S. diesel-to-crude oil "crack spread" has surged to $102.20 per barrel, a record high. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil has broken above the downtrend line since April, ending a four-month decline. Driving logic: Due to U.S.-Iran conflicts and the situation in Ukraine, global diesel supply is extremely tight. It is currently harvest season with strong demand for equipment fuel. Diesel prices continue to rise and may transmit inflation through transportation and heating costs. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 Regarding the impact on BTC, gold breaking above 4430 confirms that fiat currency credit is weakening while non-sovereign assets are becoming more expensive. Although the short-term trends of BTC and gold are disconnected, their mid-to-long-term pricing logic is converging. US Treasury yields hitting new highs, expanding debt scale, and eroding dollar credit—all three lines point in the same direction.Gold has taken the lead, and BTC is waiting for its own catalyst.$BTC $ETH $XAUT Macro perspective: The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has sharply dropped, becoming the biggest catalyst for the rebound The core driving force behind this round of rebound comes from the significant improvement in macro interest rate expectations: · The probability of maintaining the rate in September has risen to 69%: CME FedWatch shows that the market pricing for the Fed to hold steady in September has risen to 69%. A few weeks ago, the market still expected two more rate hikes before the end of 2026, and a September hike was once considered a high-probability event. · Four macro data points have weakened consecutively: July retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month (expected +0.1%); CPI year-on-year dropped to 3.4%; PPI year-on-year fell to 4.7%; July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000. · The 2-year US Treasury yield dropped about 20 basis points: It has been declining continuously since July 23, directly easing valuation pressure on risk assets. $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 A good question: if everyone is waiting for this final drop, will there be another drop? If it really exists, how can we be sure there will only be one drop and not an indefinite "final drop after drop"? Answer this question from two perspectives: 1. Analyzing the correlation between miner costs and BTC's historical price trends: Historically, BTC bear markets almost always break through miners' average electricity costs, averaging around 30%. This is why in each bear market, the network's hash rate declines. Price drops only break through some inefficient miners' electricity costs before the entire network enters a device update phase... This is a theory about the BTC network self-iterating and updating from underlying devices... Currently, BTC's price barely holds below the 10% breakdown level of electricity costs, while in every past major crash or bear market, electricity cost breakdowns have been around 30%. In other words, if this theory still holds, BTC still has about 20% room to fall below the absolute bottom. A simple calculation shows this price is between $50,000~$55,000, which is the main reason why previous citations mentioned that BTC's probability of falling below $50,000 is extremely low. To put it bluntly, most miners in the entire network still have a little profit, but the process of phasing out outdated hash power is already underway... It's not that the market is bad and miners suffer, but the BTC supply system was inherently designed to be cyclical. In other words,第一，直接作用于链上SNDK资产。交易所内的SNDK永续合约、链上代币化股权，价格锚定美股正股走势，长协消息每一次发酵，都会快速带动场内资金博弈。长协重塑了市场对存储行业的估值逻辑，多头叙事升温时，加密市场内$SNDK成交量、未平仓合约会快速冲高；一旦市场判定利好已经充分兑现，资金又会快速撤离，它的波动幅度往往远大于美股正股本身。 第二，带动RWA代币化赛道热度。这次事件让大量币圈交易者看见实体产业消息，可以传导到链上交易市场，资金开始更多关注其他美股映射代币，SpaceX、美光这类同类资产的短期活跃度同步被拉高，带动整个股票永续板块流量提升。 第三，情绪向外传导，间接影响存储概念山寨币。当AI存储缺货、长期订单锁定高景气的叙事扩散，一部分短线游资会顺势炒作加密原生存储题材币种，但这类炒作只是短期情绪联动，没有产业基本面支撑，持续性普遍偏弱。 需要明确，长协只是实体企业的商业合同，它不会改变大盘整体流动性。只有这套叙事持续引爆美股科技板块，推高整体市场风险偏好，才会间接给BTC、ETH带来微弱的情绪提振，无法成为驱动主流币趋势的核心变量。 本文仅行情复盘，不构成任何投资비트코인 반등의 겉과 속, 가격은 돌아왔지만 자금 주체는 바뀌었다 표면적으로 시장이 2.28조 달러로 온기가 돌았지만, 과연 이 반등을 이끄는 자금은 기관의 계획적 매수일까, 아니면 단기 베팅일까? 간밤 시장은 전반적인 위험선호 회복을 보여줬다. BTC는 64,400달러, ETH는 1,910달러, SOL은 75.8달러, XRP는 1달러를 다시 회복했다. 총 시가총액은 2.28조 달러에 근접했다. 다만 이번 상승의 질을 판단하려면 가격 움직임보다 자금의 성격부터 분류할 필요가 있다. - 사실 확인: 미 재무부는 GENIUS Act 내 스테이블코인 집행 규정을 지속 추진 중이며, 규제 프레임워크가 한 단계 구체화되는 모양새다. 이는 결제 인프라와 스테이블코인 발행사들의 사업 불확실성을 낮추는 요소로 읽힌다. - 사실 확인: Bitmine은 지난주 ETH 9,926개를 추가 매수해 총 보유량이 약 581.5만 ETH에 달한다. 이는 전체 공급량의 약 4.8%에 해당하는 규모로, 특정 기관#黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 I am Cige. Gold has risen above 4430 USD, and silver is rising in sync. Spot gold broke through 4420 during the session and continued to hold above 4430 on August 18, with a monthly increase exceeding 10%. What is more noteworthy is the change on the trading side. Susquehanna data shows that demand for gold options is shifting from downside protection to bullish options, with gold funds recording the strongest inflow since January. Bank of America’s Hartnett views the US debt approaching 40 trillion USD and rising interest expenses as a backdrop supporting gold allocation. The shift of option funds from protection to offense indicates that market sentiment has changed from defensive to actively betting on a rise. Regarding the impact on BTC, gold breaking above 4430 confirms that fiat currency credit is weakening while non-sovereign assets are becoming more expensive. Although the short-term trends of BTC and gold are disconnected, their mid-to-long-term pricing logic is converging. US Treasury yields hitting new highs, expanding debt scale, and eroding dollar credit—all three lines point in the same direction. Gold has taken the lead, and BTC is waiting for its own catalyst. That’s all from Cige, savor it. $BTC $XAUT $ETH Regarding the impact on BTC, in the short term, the continued rise in US Treasury yields will suppress risk asset valuations. In a high-interest-rate environment, capital flows to income-generating assets, so BTC, as a non-yielding asset, faces short-term pressure. But in the medium term, the new highs in US Treasury yields themselves indicate a fact: the world's safest asset is becoming increasingly expensive, reflecting the ongoing depletion of US dollar credit. $BTC $ETH $xSNDK $BTC $ETH $SNDK Implications for BTC and risk assets: Currently, the US stock market is at historic highs, while the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields have risen above 4.7% and 5.2%, respectively. Rising energy prices and high financing costs are creating a double squeeze. Against the backdrop of marginal tightening of macro liquidity and extremely crowded traditional risk asset positions, BTC is very likely to follow the broader market in digesting valuation pressure in the short term, and caution is needed regarding the resonance risk brought by historical seasonal pullbacks. Key data: The latest Bank of America global fund manager survey shows that market consensus is extremely crowded: First, equity positions: a net 56% of respondents are overweight equities (the highest since November 2021). Second, cash positions: have dropped to a historically low level of 3.5%. Finally, unanimous expectations: the market has formed a "five no's" consensus—no macro landing, no Fed rate hikes, no AI capital cuts, no Democratic sweep, no shorts. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 The most contradictory part of this wave is: the short end is trading "no more rate hikes," while the long end is trading "U.S. long-term risk is more expensive" 📉 The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, indicating that fiscal deficits, bond issuance, and inflation risks are forcibly pushing up long-term funding costs. For BTC, this environment is indeed tough in the short term, as the high long and short bond yields will continuously suppress valuations. But if above 5.3% tightens financial conditions too much, the market will sooner or later trade the policy pressure in reverse — the higher this needle pushes now, the greater the potential rebound in risk assets once it turns down later. ⚡️The scale of US debt continues to expand, increasing pressure on long-term bond issuance. Inflation remains above the 2% target, with both supply and demand pushing long-term yields higher. In June, the UK, Japan, and China all reduced their US Treasury holdings; overseas buyers are retreating, and new bond issuance can only be absorbed by domestic funds, which will only raise costs.$BTC $xSNDK $ETH The integration of Deribit and Coinbase derivatives indicates that the next round of pricing for $BTC and $ETH will increasingly resemble that of professional markets. Coinbase's international business is preparing to migrate the underlying trading of perpetual contracts to the Deribit system and allow more qualified users to access options products for BTC, ETH, and others. This news may seem like a trading infrastructure update, but it is very important for market structure. Because it means that the pricing of $BTC and $ETH will increasingly depend on options, perpetuals, funding rates, volatility, and professional market making, rather than just spot trading. In the past, many retail investors looked at BTC and ETH only by price. When BTC is around $64,000 and ETH around $1,900, they start drawing support and resistance levels. But professional markets look at a different set of factors: implied volatility of options, term structure, Put/Call ratios, perpetual funding rates, market maker Gamma, ETF creations/redemptions, and macro event risks. As the connection between Coinbase and Deribit deepens, this derivatives logic will more directly influence the prices that ordinary users see. This represents maturation for $BTC. The more BTC resembles a global asset, the more it requires a mature derivatives market to manage risk. Institutions buying BTC ETFs may also use options to hedge downside; miners, funds, and market makers will all use derivatives to adjust exposure. Thus, BTC price is not just "rising because someone buys spot," but also influenced by options hedging and volatility trading. During low volatility, price may be suppressed, but once a breakout occurs, hedging activity can accelerate the move. For $ETH, derivatives maturation is even more interesting. ETH itself is more volatile and has a richer ecosystem narrative. The options market will more sensitively reflect market judgments on upside elasticity or downside risk. If ETH grinds around $1,900 for a long time and the options market starts heavily betting on a certain direction, the spot price may be pulled by derivatives. When ETH breaks out, it often shows more elasticity than BTC because its position and volatility structure are more fragile. However, professionalization also makes the market harsher. More options do not mean retail investors find it easier to profit; rather, prices will be influenced by more complex capital structures. What you think is bullish but doesn’t rise might be options sellers suppressing volatility; what you think is a sudden crash might be Gamma hedging and leverage liquidations triggering together. As the market matures, simply chasing news will become increasingly difficult. Therefore, the Coinbase and Deribit connection should not be written off as just "derivatives launch is good for trading volume." The deeper meaning is that BTC and ETH are entering a more professional pricing era. BTC will increasingly resemble a macro asset, and ETH will increasingly resemble a high-volatility on-chain tech asset. Those who don’t understand volatility only see half the price story. The next market cycle might not be signaled first by spot price moves, but by the options market sensing the shift first. 重磅信号来袭：30年期美债收益率狂飙至5.29%-5.32%，创下2007年以来新高；10年期美债同步站上4.72%，十几年的利率天花板，直接被捅破。 一、为什么长债利率疯狂暴涨？四大核心根源 1. 美国债务雪球越滚越大，长期美债源源不断增发，供给量暴增；叠加通胀依旧没跌到2%政策目标，双重施压抬高收益率。 2. 海外大买家集体撤退，6月中英日同步大手笔减持美债。海外资金不再接盘，美国只能依靠本土资金接盘，发债成本被迫节节攀升。 3. AI行业疯狂融资，企业债发行量大增，市场流动资金被瓜分，长债资金抢夺大战愈演愈烈。 4. 这绝非美国单独现象，日本国债同步惨遭抛售，全球长端利率正在重新定价，全球金融格局悄悄改写。 二、对BTC的双重影响：短期看利率，中期看美元信用 短期：BTC难免承压 美债收益率持续走高，带息稳健资产吸引力大增。 BTC没有利息收益，风险资产遭到资金阶段性抛弃，盘面容易被压制。 中期：底层逻辑悄悄反转，大方向从未改变 美债收益率不断创新高，恰恰暴露致命隐患：美元信用正在被持续消耗。 多国持续减持美债，去美元化浪潮稳步提速。 眼下看似持有美元资产更香，但美债的信用根In the crypto world, a compliant and disciplined newbie can sometimes outperform experienced veterans in earning ability. Three Arrows Capital once managed over ten billion USD at its peak. Its founder Su Zhu proposed the "super cycle," firmly believing this bull market would not see a bear market. Because of their past success, they chose full leverage with no fallback, ultimately going to zero in a few weeks in 2022 and dragging down a batch of institutions. Delphi Digital was similar. After extensive in-depth research, they publicly endorsed and heavily invested in LUNA, resulting in 40 billion USD going to zero in days. Then there was PlanB's S2F model in 2021. The model accurately predicted Bitcoin prices multiple times, fitting historical data as well as physical laws. Countless people went all-in based on it. But the $100,000 target was missed, and the model was completely invalidated by the market. In a treacherous market, the biggest trap is mistaking "past success" for "future ability." A few successful predictions can easily create a sense of control, but the real variables driving price are always changing. Therefore, the most important thing in investing is not predicting the future but controlling yourself. Use less leverage, keep cash, have stop-losses, and maintain discipline. This is also why I am willing to make Bitcoin my core position: it doesn't require you to precisely predict every narrative cycle. As long as you believe long-term that it will keep reaching new highs and eventually move to higher levels, you can reduce dependence on a complex future. The market will always change, but every narrative Bitcoin captures may ultimately settle into its long-term value.The judgment of "fiscal credibility" holds. The 30-year US Treasury yield once touched 5.31%, hitting a new high since 2007. The surge in long-term rates is not due to short-term rate hike expectations but a repricing of long-term fiscal and inflation risks. Why long-term rates are soaring - Fiscal deficit out of control: The cumulative deficit for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026 is about $1.8 trillion, already exceeding the entire fiscal year 2025; the single-month deficit in July was $432.3 billion, a 48% year-on-year increase - Interest expenses snowballing: Net interest expenses for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026 reached $963 billion, up 14% year-on-year; the CBO expects interest expenses to reach $2.1 trillion by 2036 - Supply peak and weak auctions: The Treasury recently auctioned $25 billion of 30-year bonds with a winning yield of 5.216% (highest since 2001), with a subscription multiple of only 2.39, indicating weak demand - Overseas buyers reducing holdings: In June 2026, Japan reduced holdings by $26.4 billion, China by $25.9 billion, and the UK by $8.7 billion; total overseas holdings of US debt decreased by $72.1 billion that month - Rising inflation compensation demands: Investors require higher long-term inflation risk compensation, and term premiums are being repriced, pushing long-term rates away from short-term policy expectations - AI giants issuing bonds diverting funds: Large tech companies are issuing substantial debt for AI infrastructure, competing with US Treasuries for limited funds, exacerbating the rise in long-term rates Direct impact on assets - Opportunity cost of zero-coupon assets soaring: Risk-free yields surpass 5%, reducing the attractiveness of interest-free assets like gold - Divergence between gold and Bitcoin: Over the past year, gold rose 32% while Bitcoin fell 46%; gold is favored more by central banks and safe-haven funds, whereas Bitcoin is pressured in a high-interest-rate environment Outlook - Watch long-term rates: If the 30-year yield continues to rise and stabilizes at a high level, valuation pressure on risk assets will persist. - Monitor fiscal and auction data: Marginal changes in deficits and interest expenses, as well as subscription multiples and winning yields of key maturity Treasury auctions, are high-frequency signals for market confidence. - Track overseas holdings: The reduction or increase in holdings by major overseas buyers will directly affect US Treasury demand and long-term rate trends. The current surge in long-term rates is a pricing of the US's long-term fiscal and inflation risks, not driven by short-term rate hike expectations. Until the "fiscal credibility" repricing is complete, the pressure of a high-rate environment on risk assets will continue. It is advisable to remain cautious and anchor tracking on long-term rates and fiscal data.Market Brief｜The rebound is a technical correction, not a reversal $BTC $ETH BTC has returned near 64,000, with a broad market rise, but market sentiment is generally lukewarm. This wave is more of a technical correction after overselling, not a trend reversal. US stablecoin regulation sees positive developments, but funds are not blindly speculating on the news, waiting for implementation details. Institutionally: ETH continues to be accumulated by institutions, but the market reaction is muted. Coin differentiation: $SOL and $XRP are just following the broader market rebound. 📍BTC key levels Support: 64000‑64200 Resistance: 64500‑65000 Only with volume-backed stabilization above 64800 is there room to expand upward; repeated failure to break through will lead back to consolidation, with caution for a dip to 63500. Derivative funding rates show no overheating, leverage funds have not massively entered, the rebound is steady but lacks explosive power. Focus on: trading volume + perpetual contract open interest Price rising while positions decrease raises questions about the rebound. The rebound can be moderate, but positions must be clear-headed; many losses in trading come from mistiming the rhythm. ⚠️Personal opinion, not investment advice #Anthropic年化营收达650亿美元 Family, Anthropic's latest funding and revenue data are quite shocking in the entire AI sector. An annualized revenue of $65 billion, with Q2 single-quarter revenue at $11.5 billion, more than double Q1's $4.73 billion. This growth rate is remarkable in any industry. The company just completed a $65 billion funding round, with a post-investment valuation of $965 billion, and has submitted an S-1 draft to the SEC. Some investors are discussing that the year-end annualized revenue could reach $100 to $120 billion, with an IPO valuation seen at $2 trillion. These numbers are indeed astronomical. But there are a few details worth pondering for a few more seconds. Annualized revenue does not equal confirmed full-year revenue; the $65 billion figure is an extrapolation based on current monthly revenue annualized and does not represent actual full-year revenue. The company submitted an S-1 draft, which is still some distance from the formal prospectus, and the valuation expectations come from investor discussions rather than official company guidance. The high computing power costs' pressure on profits and cash flow has not yet been disclosed in detail. In the context of the entire AI race, Anthropic is approaching OpenAI's scale. OpenAI's annualized revenue is over $40 billion; if Anthropic really reaches $100 to $120 billion by year-end, it will at least surpass OpenAI in revenue scale. If it goes public with a $2 trillion valuation, it will trigger a revaluation of the overall AI chip and data center sector valuation expectations. $BTC $SNDK $SPCX AIoT is recovering, and the global tech hardware chain is emerging from its trough. As an underlying asset of the compute economy, BTC is tied to the prosperity of tech hardware. Strong smartphone sales mean stable chip demand, ensuring capital expenditure on computing infrastructure won't stop. That's my take. Take some time to digest it. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Today let's talk about H, and to be clear: this H is not for Hero, it's for Hell, and also the "ha" for taking over the bag 🤡 Humanity Protocol sounds grand, a palm scan "proves you're a real person." The problem is, the crypto world is full of these identity narratives; they were hyped last round, and now they're just reheating old stories. Think about it. Why I dare to short it: 1️⃣ The foundation just announced adjustments to the Vesting plan with a deadline, and some institutions have publicly chosen to unlock early at a discount — if institutions prefer to take a discount to exit early, are you telling me this is long-term value? Their vote with their feet is more honest than yours. 2️⃣ Have you seen the news about large transfers by Jump Trading? Market makers are offloading chips; to whom, you decide. 3️⃣ No matter what "value revaluation" hype is outside, I only see the volume and rhythm of the rebound screaming one phrase: bull trap. The pump is just to hand off the bags to you. 4️⃣ I won't even get into the "hacked or insider theft" rumors; anyway, negative news about this project spreads faster than its pump. I'm only going 2x leverage, don't talk to me about maxing out leverage; even 2x is too much in a spike market. Staying alive means having a next trade. As usual: contracts carry risk, always use stop loss, position management is more important than direction. For reference only, not investment advice. Does geopolitical risk always crash the market??? The core transmission chain of geopolitical conflict: escalating tensions push up crude oil prices → inflation expectations rise → rate cut expectations are delayed → long-term bond yields rise, ultimately suppressing global risk assets. First, it directly benefits gold and crude oil. Funds immediately flow into traditional safe-haven assets, and once oil prices face supply concerns, risk premiums quickly emerge; gold receives dual support from safe-haven demand and inflation hedging, which is the main driver behind gold's recent sustained strength. Second, U.S. Treasuries and the stock market come under pressure. The market worries about inflation rebounding, long-term government bonds are sold off, long bond yields rise, risk-free returns increase, and institutions reduce allocations to high-risk assets like stocks and crypto; U.S. tech stocks are more prone to pullbacks. Third, for the crypto market, in the short term it is mostly treated as a risk asset. During panic sell-offs, funds prioritize withdrawing from BTC and ETH, flowing into gold and the U.S. dollar; only if the conflict becomes prolonged and the market worries about the global credit system will Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative be picked up by funds, which is a medium- to long-term logic and unlikely to take effect in the short term. Currently, the Middle East situation remains at the emotional level without materially disrupting oil transportation, causing only expectation disturbances. Once the conflict escalates further, the entire transmission chain will be rapidly activated, directly changing Federal Reserve policy expectations and becoming the dominant macro variable driving the market in the coming period. This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 $BTC $ETH $SNDK AIoT: Driven by the 618 shopping festival, Q2 IoT revenue grew 28% quarter-over-quarter to RMB 31.6 billion, showing a clear recovery in major home appliances and smart home products. The variable for Q3 lies in memory chip prices: if they peak and pull back, smartphone gross margins will have room to recover. As new EV models scale up, their revenue contribution will continue to expand. Xiaomi's third quarter looks even more compelling than its second. Consumer electronics demand is reboundingSTRC Buyback Thesis I appreciate the debate, but I see the STRC structure differently — and I think much of it is intentional. The $100 level is designed to function more like a ceiling than a simple target. Strategy itself is effectively the first seller around par, which makes a clean “buy $98, sell $100” trade less attractive. The real opportunity appears when investors are willing to buy lower and participate in the ecosystem rather than simply waiting for par. Ethereum ETF single-day net inflow of $30.85 million — BlackRock dominates 84%, institutional funds quietly accumulating ETH during sideways trading --- 📊 1. Key Data: $30.85 million, net inflow for two consecutive days On August 17, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $30.8512 million, maintaining a net inflow trend for two consecutive days. · BlackRock ETHA: net inflow of $25.8966 million, accounting for 83.9% of total inflows · Fidelity FETH: net inflow of $4.2727 million · Total assets under management: $10.719 billion · Net asset ratio: 4.66% (as a percentage of Ethereum's total market cap) · Historical cumulative net inflow: $11.484 billion 🔍 2. Data Analysis: BlackRock's "one-man dominance," institutional fund structure divergence BlackRock ETHA's single-day net inflow was $25.8966 million, making up 83.9% of the total net inflow. This is not the first time BlackRock has "taken the whole stage," but such a high proportion indicates that inflows into other ETF products have nearly stalled. BlackRock's channel advantage is forming a "winner-takes-all" pattern. On August 16, Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of $10.21 million, with BlackRock ETHA netting $17.59 million, while other products saw almost no inflows. The total net inflow over two consecutive days was about $41.06 million, reversing the previous trend of continuous net outflows. Although the scale is not large, the directional shift is more noteworthy than the size itself. 📈 3. Comparison with BTC ETFs: Who is "accumulating"? On August 17, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $30.8259 million. BlackRock IBIT net inflow was $22.8 million, and Fidelity FBTC net inflow was $22.5 million. ETH ETF net inflow ($30.85 million) is almost on par with BTC ETF ($30.83 million). BlackRock ETHA ($25.89 million) and IBIT ($22.8 million) are nearly neck and neck. Against the backdrop of the ETH/BTC exchange rate still around 0.0295 (still below the May range of 0.033-0.035), institutional funds are flowing into both assets at almost the same pace. 💎 4. Summary: "Quiet accumulation" during sideways trading ETH has been trading sideways between $1,850 and $1,900 for nearly two months, but ETF funds have not stopped flowing in — net inflows of about $41.06 million over two consecutive days, with BlackRock ETHA dominating this "quiet accumulation" with over 80% share. The longer the sideways period, the more thorough the chip turnover; the more thorough the chip turnover, the stronger the momentum at breakout. Although the single-day net inflow of $30.85 million is not huge, the shift from continuous outflows to inflows signals a directional reversal that is more valuable than the scale itself. While the market is still debating whether ETH will rise or fall, institutions are quietly positioning with real money. Sideways trading does not mean no direction; rather, the direction is quietly being chosen by capital. $ETH Smartphones: Q1 shipments reached 33.8 million units, down 19% YoY, but Average Selling Price (ASP) rose 8.2% YoY to RMB 1,310, setting a new record high. Volume fell, but prices rose—the high-end strategy is delivering results. EVs (Automotive): In Q2, SU7 series deliveries hit 104,200 units with a gross margin of 20.1%, while net losses narrowed from RMB 3.1 billion in Q1 to RMB 2.06 billion. Economies of scale are kicking in, and breakeven isn't far off.
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