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$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 $SKHYNIX SK Hynix (000660.KS / ADR: SKHY) Rigorous in-depth analysis
Risk warning: This is only an objective industry logic review and does not constitute investment advice. The subject has both AI growth attributes and strong storage cycle attributes; dual trading on Korean stock + US ADR markets, exchange rates and liquidity in both places will bring additional disturbances.
I. Business Structure and Market Position
The world's second-largest memory chip manufacturer, with two core segments: DRAM about 73% of revenue, NAND about 27% of revenue.
1. DRAM (Core Base)
• Standard DRAM: PC, consumer, general server memory, with strong cyclical attributes;
• HBM High Bandwidth Memory (AI core growth): currently holds 55-62% global market share of HBM, core supplier to NVIDIA, large-scale supply of HBM3E, HBM4 entering mass production ramp-up, gross margin far higher than standard DRAM products.
Risk point: High customer concentration, NVIDIA is the largest HBM purchaser, performance highly sensitive to capital expenditure of leading AI customers.
2. NAND Flash
Global market share about 20%, including consumer SSDs and enterprise SSDs, benefiting from large-capacity storage demand for AI inference; NAND business scale is weaker than Samsung, considered a business shortcoming.
3. Operating Model: Extensive long-term supply agreements signed with overseas cloud providers, with long-term contracts using "fixed + floating pricing" to smooth some spot price volatility but cannot completely eliminate cyclical impact.
Financial objective facts: Operating profit in 2026 Q2 hit a record high, but net profit includes a large one-time investment gain from the sale of Kioxia shares; one-time gains are not sustainable and operational profit must be distinguished from non-operational income.
II. Core Bullish Logic
1. Structural shortage of HBM supply, technological and customer barriers
HBM wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging capacity construction cycles take 4-5 years, making rapid short-term expansion difficult; the company is deeply tied with leading customers like NVIDIA and AMD, securing major shares of HBM4, with high-margin products continuously raising overall profitability.
Long-term orders lock in most shipments, reducing spot price volatility impact.
2. Upward cycle dividend for general storage
The company actively shifts much capacity to HBM, squeezing supply of standard DRAM and NAND, spot ASP rises, traditional storage business profitability recovers, cash flow supports HBM R&D and capital expenditure.
3. AI inference brings a second growth source
Besides training-side HBM, AI inference servers drive demand for server DRAM and enterprise SSDs, opening incremental space beyond GPU support.
4. Cash flow improvement and shareholder return expectations
Free cash flow significantly improves during the upcycle, market expects buybacks and dividends; after ADR listing, there is also a capital hedge demand, becoming a potential catalyst for stock price.
III. Core Risks (Main Market Disagreements)
1. Risk of deteriorating HBM competitive landscape
Samsung continues expanding HBM4 production, Micron's HBM4 has completed customer certification, both competitors are improving yield ramp-up, which will squeeze market share, suppress HBM premiums, and compress excess profit margins; HBM share has declined from nearly 70% previously to 55-62%, competitive pressure continues to rise.
2. Cyclical nature not gone, just masked by AI narrative
HBM is structurally tight, but standard DRAM/NAND remain strongly cyclical commodities. If industry-wide capital expenditure is large-scale implemented, capacity is released concentratedly, consumer electronics demand weakens, traditional storage prices fall, overall performance will be directly dragged down. Long-term contracts have pricing adjustment mechanisms but cannot fully offset the impact of industry oversupply.
3. Risk of AI capital expenditure falling short of expectations
Cloud providers reduce AI capital budgets and slow large model iterations, HBM orders will be directly affected; although long-term contracts exist, there is a realistic possibility of renegotiation and downward price adjustments by customers; long-term contracts do not equal unconditional guaranteed income.
4. Huge capital expenditure pressure
To maintain HBM iteration and expansion, high capital expenditure is maintained annually, consuming large cash flow; if demand falls short, large-scale expansion will become a capacity burden.
5. Other external risks
① US antitrust class action risk, accusing memory manufacturers of collusive price control;
② Geopolitical supply chain control risks;
③ Korean won exchange rate volatility, exchange rate disturbances between Korean stock and ADR;
④ NAND business competitiveness is weak, overall business is unbalanced, overly dependent on DRAM-HBM.
IV. Market and Key Price Levels (Korean stock 000660, KRW)
• Strong resistance: previous historical high range, after a large correction, market tolerance for performance significantly reduced; financial reports showing only "high performance" are no longer enough to drive price up, HBM share and long-term contract guidance must exceed expectations.
• First support: platform range of this rally, if effectively broken, it means the AI storage supercycle narrative is questioned by the market.
Supplement: US ADR (SKHY) and Korean stock trend basically synchronized, but exchange rate, ADR liquidity, and share dilution factors cause price deviations.
V. Three Scenario Simulations
1. Base scenario (highest neutral probability)
AI capital expenditure remains prosperous, HBM shortage continues, HBM4 ramps smoothly; standard DRAM/NAND cycle oscillates at high levels. The company maintains high profitability but valuation constrained by cyclical attributes; stock price follows HBM shipments, storage ASP, and global tech sector fluctuations.
2. Optimistic scenario
AI training + inference demand continues to exceed expectations; Samsung and Micron HBM yield ramp-up below expectations, company maintains high share; long-term orders continue to increase. Performance continuously exceeds expectations, stock price challenges historical highs again.
3. Pessimistic scenario
Cloud providers cut AI capital expenditure; competitors massively increase HBM supply, HBM product premiums sharply compressed; general storage capacity oversupply, ASP declines. Earnings rapidly revised down, valuation and performance double hit, stock price deeply corrected. #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
Many people overlook the interference of FOMO sentiment on the market.
This round has been rising all the way, with a large number of off-exchange users not getting on board, fearing missing out on a big move. This sentiment will generate a lot of chasing orders. Once the price dips slightly, this batch of FOMO funds will try to rush in to catch the bottom, but these funds are emotional and their conviction is not strong. As soon as there is another dip, these newly entered chips will become new selling pressure.
There is also a hidden change in the market now: early whale addresses are no longer continuously increasing their positions, stopping the buy-buy-buy behavior, and no new large-scale hoarding actions have appeared.
It’s not that whales are dumping, but that incremental buying has decreased. Relying only on ETFs and retail investors to take the baton, the upward driving force naturally weakens.
Supply pressure from miners
With the price standing at a high level, miners’ book profits have risen sharply. Some mining companies will take advantage of the improved market to sell the BTC they produce to cover operating costs.
This is a continuous small-scale selling pressure, which won’t cause a crash but will continuously offset some buying power, suppressing rapid price surges.
The reality of market rhythm
Don’t fantasize in black and white terms; it’s not either breaking 80,000 directly or crashing hard.
A more likely scenario is a back-and-forth tug-of-war: a rise, a drop, another rise, constantly testing support and resistance.
• Even if new highs are reached later, there will be multiple sharp drops in between that make people mistakenly think the bull market is over.
• Even if a correction occurs, it doesn’t mean the bull market has ended. Mid-bull market pullbacks of around 20% are historically normal, but such pullbacks are enough to wash out heavy holders.
Two signals to distinguish
1. Look at the quality of the rebound, not just whether there is a rebound $BTC $ETH $OKB Bitcoin’s move above $77,500 is less important as a headline and more important as a test of the underlying market structure.
A nearly 20% gain in just three days could naturally trigger profit-taking, but around $826M in combined US spot BTC and ETH ETF inflows during the previous session suggests there may be genuine demand beyond short covering.
#PopMartEarningsWatch #Gold4600VsBonds #ETHWipes1.1BShorts The so-called broad rally in this round of $ZAMA feels more like the manipulators moving assets from one hand to the other, buying and selling among themselves to inflate trading volume.
Without real incremental funds entering from outside the market, they rely on wash trading to boost volume, pushing up the top gainers list to attract market attention. When short-term retail investors see the volume surge and price spike, they rush in to buy, and the main players distribute their holdings accordingly.
The pattern is very clear: each sector pulses in rotation for a one-day surge. The altcoin leading the gains on a given day usually crashes hard the next day. There is no sustained main theme or genuine collective effort—it's just a cycle of heating up interest and harvesting profits in turn.
It’s not even a minor bull market; it’s a false boom created within a volatile range by artificially inflating trading volume.As mentioned earlier, the candlestick below shows a long lower shadow, clearly indicating that support is starting to strengthen, and this short squeeze causing the decline is not a complete trend reversal, at least not in the short term. So for now, it is still understood as a price ratio correction, and the short-term rebound demand still exists. Our idea given at midnight was very clear: go long near 766 for BTC; go long near 238 for ETH. The entry points were very well chosen, and even if the price didn't peak, enough buffer space was left for everyone to react when the price ratio later fell back.
Daily level: Three big bullish candles pulled the price from 640 to 795, with Bollinger Bands widening, but the candlestick has moved away from the upper band, indicating a high-level turnover after a breakout, not a bearish reversal. Currently, it is in a strong consolidation phase at a high level after a short squeeze rally. The overall bullish structure remains intact, with the price firmly above moving averages of all levels, but the previous continuous rise has caused a large short-term deviation rate, requiring technical correction.
Hourly level:
The price ratio surged to 78831 then pulled back, found support near 770 during midday dip, and then slightly rebounded, currently consolidating. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating the market has entered a phase of bullish and bearish contention. In the short term, it will operate within the range of the upper and lower Bollinger Bands.
Trading strategy: Maintain the bullish view if stabilized, keep good defense, open small positions, and operate flexibly.
Go long near 778 for BTC with a target near 782.
Go long near 240 for ETH with a target near 248.
$BTC $ETH $BTC has surged from around $63,000 to $79,500 in the past few days, rising so fast that many haven't even caught up yet, and the price has already started testing $80,000.
However, after reviewing the data, the market and sentiment haven't fully aligned.
The Fear & Greed Index has risen to 71, and ETFs saw a net inflow of about $307.5 million in the last day, so short-term profit-taking sentiment has definitely picked up. But the funding rate is only 0.01%, and the long-short ratio is just 1.03, indicating the futures market isn't yet crowded with bulls chasing the rally.
On-chain data is even more interesting. Long-term holders still control about 83.9% of the supply, LTH-MVRV is only 1.58, and the weekly RSI is 58.3. These values are still some distance from the frenzied levels typically seen at historical tops.
My BTC market heat model currently scores 44.5. It looks like a strong rebound entering a digestion phase, not yet a cycle top.
Next, I’m mainly watching whether $80,000 can hold. If the breakout fails, I’ll first observe around $76,000. If that breaks, then look at $74,500–$75,000. After continuous rallies, I won’t rush to chase the first wave; a sideways move or pullback with buyers stepping in makes it easier to judge whether this rally has staying power. #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ Grayscale has submitted an application to convert its Zcash exposure into a spot ETF. The product will directly track ZEC, allowing investors to gain exposure through a regulated framework without holding tokens themselves. This move is significant because Grayscale is one of the largest issuers of cryptocurrency investment products, and its participation typically means the asset has institutional-grade access, allowing Zcash to compete alongside mainstream assets. But here's an important caveat: submitting an application is just a request, not approval. Grayscale previously withdrew SEC ETF applications against Cardano, Hedera, and Polkadot, reminding us that the road from filing to final approval is long and full of uncertainty. The registration documents have been submitted to the SEC's EDGAR system, which is the primary filing record for the trust fund behind the product. Investors tracking Grayscale's broader product line operations can also see how the company adjusted its earnings structure through quarterly cash distributions for ETHE and GSOL. Why did Zcash price break through $800? The market reacted quickly and intensely. As news of the ETF spread, Zcash's price quickly surged by double-digit percentage points, breaking through $800. This amplity is a typical news-driven breakout: traders priced in the legitimacy and future demand that Grayscale's products might bring, while momentum trading and insufficient liquidity at high levels further amplified the gains. But a surge does not represent a trend. A single catalyst-driven rally may also quickly reverse, but one remains in the same situation$TRUMP This so-called broad rally this round looks more like the market makers moving chips from left hand to right hand, buying and selling to inflate trading volume.
Without real incremental funds entering from outside, they rely on wash trading to boost volume, pulling up the top gainers list to attract market attention. When short-term retail investors see the volume surge and price jump, they rush in to catch the falling knife, and the main force distributes accordingly.
The pattern is very clear: each sector pulses for a day, the altcoin leading the gains that day mostly crashes hard the next day. There is no sustained main theme, no real collective effort, just cycling hype and rotating harvesting.
It’s not even a small bull market, just a false boom created within a consolidation range by artificially inflating volume.The concept of a "barrier," for example, when spcx recently pulled back to 104, it was mentioned in the group that 104 is the barrier at the 100 mark, so you can blindly buy the dip.
Usually, when the price falls from a high point and is about to reach a major integer level, it will definitely stop falling at the barrier because integer levels are psychological thresholds in the market. Once broken, it will collapse. Without irresistible factors, it won't break through in one go, thus creating an ultimate bottom-buying opportunity.
Similarly, when sol moves up from the bottom and is about to hit the 100 mark for the first time, why do I emphasize that breaking through 97.66/98 allows you to add some positions? Because 96 is the barrier for 100, breaking through 97/98 means directly breaking through the 100 mark. At this point, you should note that the first breakthrough of the 100 mark will definitely not hold. 104/106 is the first barrier above 100, which acts as resistance. Don't even think about it; the first breakthrough of 100 must retest the support below before breaking through 104-106 and reaching 114-124. Only then does 100 initially hold. Therefore, short-term longs should take profits around 2-4 points near the integer level and defend at strong support below; otherwise, losses are likely. Later, 150 is also an integer level where we should take profits around 144-147 and simultaneously enter short positions.
Just before the spike, I mentioned that defense should be at 85 or below to be safe, and this is the reason. #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ BTC这一轮上涨确实够猛。最新价格在 77,300美元附近，盘中一度冲到 79,194美元，短短几天已经突破此前持续数周的震荡区间。 但这轮行情不能简单理解成“牛市重新启动”。第一阶段的主要推力，还是空头踩踏。市场此前在低波动环境里积累了大量空单，BTC突破关键位置后，24小时内约有 27亿—30亿美元空头仓位被清算，强制平仓反过来推动价格不断上涨。 真正值得关注的是，逼空之后开始有现货资金接力。8月20日，美国BTC现货ETF净流入约 6.06亿美元，ETH现货ETF净流入约 2.21亿美元，合计接近图片中提到的8.26亿美元；本周前四个交易日，BTC ETF累计净流入约 16亿美元。 与此同时，美国财政部扩大长期国债购买、美元走弱，加上加密监管预期改善，也在推动资金重新买入BTC、黄金等抗通胀资产。 所以接下来不要只看BTC能不能摸到8万美元，关键要看ETF能否继续保持净流入。逼空负责把价格拉起来，现货资金才决定它能站多久。 如果ETF流入持续，这轮突破可能从情绪行情转成趋势行情；如果资金快速减弱，经历近20%的急涨后，出现回踩也很正常。 现在追高未必舒服，但继续用上一轮熊市的思Did you really understand this wave of the market?
There are three core things: liquidity easing, regulatory shift, and short squeeze explosion.
$BTC rose more than 24% this week, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023, indicating this is not an ordinary rebound but a systematic buying spree by capital.
The Treasury's bond repurchase doubled, directly suppressing long-term bond yields, effectively easing restrictions on risk assets.
Although the crypto summit by the Trump administration is a short-term emotional catalyst, in the long run, the CLARITY Act and strategic reserves are the real game changers.
$ETH is now at a critical juncture.
Arthur Hayes' viewpoint is worth noting; he believes ETH's upside is limited but has significant catch-up potential.
Essentially, this means ETH has better odds than BTC. However, today ETH faced obvious selling pressure near 2,518 and quickly retraced to 2,382, indicating that the chips above are not clean and need time to digest.
Regarding altcoin season, BTC's dominance remains high at 58.7%, and capital has not truly dispersed yet. The premise for altcoin season is BTC stabilizing, ETH continuing to strengthen, and overall market sentiment warming up. The first two conditions are forming, but the third still needs time to verify.
Conclusion: The direction is bullish, but wait for a pullback in rhythm.
If you are a trend trader, the current position is more suitable for holding existing positions rather than chasing highs; if you are a short-term trader, the weekly close at 2,450 is a key signal to decide whether to add positions.
When the trend comes, don't get off easily, but also don't go all in at the hottest emotional moments.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 $DASH feels like the bull market is coming, but something feels off. I just realized, this kind of market isn't even confirmed as a bull market yet. When everything is rising in rotation, it's just one after another cutting the retail investors. Yesterday, the old-school coins went up, today the privacy sector rises, tomorrow DeFi goes up. None of them have sustainability. Not a single coin has been rising for three consecutive days or consistently ranks in the top three gainers. Pay attention, whenever a coin enters the top three gainers on a given day, it often crashes hard the next day. What kind of bull market is this? It feels more like a cycle of cutting retail investors one by one.Big BTC is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 this week:
1. This wave is a short squeeze, with a 24% increase in a week, rising from 63,000 to nearly 80,000. The rise is too fast, RSI is maxed out. The shorts have been wiped out, and this momentum can't continue unless the previously mentioned positive news materializes.
2. The volume of BTC has exploded these past two days, but momentum is weakening. BTC's daily trading volume surged to $96B (usually 30-40B), but the last two candlesticks show shrinking volume, indicating that the chasing funds can't sustain the rise. I also noticed that yesterday's ETF inflows were not as strong as the previous two days, less than 10 million.
3. Moreover, we are currently in a macroeconomic positive news vacuum. The big positive news from a few days ago was indeed good, but few are about to be implemented immediately, and the macro environment is only verbally improving. Everyone should be cautious.
This wave is a short squeeze, not a bull market rebound. Don't be swayed by a single bullish candle, especially don't enter long positions at 80,000 unless it stabilizes and you can open a short-term long.
Also, don't short recklessly. If it weren't for the many stubborn shorts yesterday, I don't think it would have risen to 78,000 so quickly. This is a short squeeze; the more shorts there are, the more stubborn they are, the more fuel it becomes!
Sideways trading around 78,000 over the weekend has poor risk-reward for both longs and shorts. Stay safe, everyone #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ $MET feels like the bull market is here, but something feels off. I just realized, this might not even be a real bull market. The whole market is just rotating gains, like one after another cutting the retail traders. Yesterday, old-school coins went up, today privacy coins rise, tomorrow DeFi goes up. None of them have sustainability. Not a single coin has been up for three consecutive days or consistently ranked in the top three gainers. Watch closely, any altcoin that enters the top three gainers on a given day often crashes hard the next day. What kind of bull market is this? It feels more like a cycle of cutting retail traders one by one.$MET feels like the bull market is here, but something feels off. I just realized, this might not even be a real bull market. The whole market is just rotating gains, like one after another cutting the retail traders. Yesterday, old-school coins went up, today privacy coins rise, tomorrow DeFi goes up. None of them have sustainability. Not a single coin has been up for three consecutive days or consistently ranked in the top three gainers. Watch closely, any altcoin that enters the top three gainers on a given day often crashes hard the next day. What kind of bull market is this? It feels more like a cycle of cutting retail traders one by one.Bitcoin’s move above $77,500 is less important as a headline and more important as a test of the underlying market structure.
A nearly 20% gain in just three days could naturally trigger profit-taking, but around $826M in combined US spot BTC and ETH ETF inflows during the previous session suggests there may be genuine demand beyond short covering.
#PopMartEarningsWatch #Gold4600VsBonds #ETHWipes1.1BShorts #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
Many people don't understand one reality: ETF capital inflow ≠ immediate surge.
Most institutional ETF funds are long-term allocations, not speculative capital driving the price up. The funds are slowly accumulating chips, not dumping money to push the price straight to the sky. The current stagnation at high levels means buying pressure and profit-taking pressure are starting to balance out.
Another easily overlooked arbitrage behavior: some hedge funds buy ETF shares while shorting or hedging in the futures market. This capital appears as net inflow but does not fully convert into bullish forces pushing up the coin price.
A knife hangs over the macro side
The current market confidence is based on the market betting that the Federal Reserve will ease and cut rates later.
But this expectation is not set in stone.
If upcoming US CPI and non-farm payroll data strengthen again, rate cut expectations will cool off directly, the dollar and US Treasury yields will rebound, and BTC will be the first to bear the pressure. Even if institutions remain optimistic, a sharp short-term pullback will still occur.
Concerns on-chain and in derivatives
Long-term holders' chips on-chain are stable, but short-term profit-taking addresses are selling more. The price has surged close to 80,000, and a large amount of early chips have already made substantial profits and can cash out anytime.
Open interest in the contract market remains high, with a large accumulation of long positions at high levels. Even a slight drop can trigger a chain of liquidations, amplifying the correction and causing a sharp decline. Even if the spot market logic remains intact, the futures market can still cause a frightening short-term drop.
$BTC Altcoins just collectively flash-crashed 20% to 30%
I actually think the market isn't over yet
Altcoins suddenly experienced a rapid plunge just now, with many coins pulling back 20% to 30% in a short time.
But I think this move looks more like a violent deleveraging after the previous rapid rise.
In the past few days, BTC surged straight to around $79,000, continuously squeezing the market. In the past few days, tens of billions of dollars worth of liquidations have occurred, and altcoin leverage and short-term funds have clearly piled up. At times like this, the market suddenly gets a sharp correction that clears out high-leverage long positions and chasing buyers, which is actually not surprising.
The bigger environment hasn't changed significantly. BTC is still up more than 20% this week, spot ETF funds are flowing back, and US policy and liquidity expectations are friendlier than before.
So I won't turn bearish just because of this flash crash.
If $BTC can hold the high ground, I actually think after this quick altcoin sell-off, there is still a chance for a second wave of gains.
The truly strong coins will quickly bounce back in the next couple of days.$DASH Feels like the bull market is here, but something feels off. I just realized, this kind of market isn't even confirmed as a bull market yet. The whole thing is just altcoins taking turns pumping, like a cycle of cutting leeks. Yesterday, the old dog coins went up, today the privacy sector pumps, tomorrow DeFi rises. None of them have sustainability. Not a single coin has been up for three consecutive days or consistently ranked in the top three gainers. Look closely, basically the altcoins that are top three gainers on one day often crash hard the next day. What kind of bull market is this? It feels more like a rotating scheme to cut leeks.Guys, $BTC 80,000 yuan of the big cake just won't pass! Yesterday, I hit 79 and 491, then backed down, missing 509 dollars and still couldn't get up. A long upper shadow shows selling pressure is no joke. It jumped 23% in a week, and market sentiment went straight from fear to greed, but to me, something didn't quite right. Is there something suspicious about the market data? Bitcoin is currently fluctuating between 77,500 and 78,300, which looks quite lively, but the funding rate for perpetual contracts has surged to a 20-month high. What does that mean? It's like long leverage piling up like a mountain—the last time this happened was in January 2025, with a Bitcoin price just over 100,000 yuan. Everyone knows what will happen after that. What's worse is that the retail long-short ratio surged to 2.22, with retail investors aggressively going long, while the whale (top traders) only had a 1.47 ratio, very calm. Institutions are snacking on sunflower seeds and watching the show, while retail investors are charging into battle—does this scene sound familiar? Why do I think a pullback is necessary? First, the 80,000 iron wall is too tough. This level is not only a psychological threshold but also the lower boundary of the strong resistance zone between 80,000 and 82,500. If you get smashed after a quick touch, it means both the trapped and profit-taking markets are waiting to escape. Second, the fuel is almost burned out after squeezing the short. This rally is largely driven up by shorts being forced into liquidation. In the past few days, billions of short positions have been liquidated, and with forced buying gone, can real demand keep up? If spot trading volume can't hold up, the market is just a castle in the air. Third, financing fees are hot to handle. With the regular rate so high, the bulls pay to hold positions every day. If the price doesn't rise, these guys run faster than anyone else, and when they stamp on it, it's a chain liquidation. I 78.004. Market Signals and Future Market Projection
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has fallen below $77,000, Ethereum below $2,400, SOL below $90, TRUMP has dropped over 15%, and ZEC, SOL, and XRP have all fallen more than 10%. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 71—still in the "Greed" zone but rapidly declining.
The key support level is at $75,000. If this breaks, the previous structural level at $73,000 will become the next test target. Resistance above lies in the $78,800–$79,500 range. The short-term core indicators to watch are the 4-hour RSI overbought correction, crude oil price trends, and progress in US-Iran negotiations.
What deserves even more attention is the order book depth. Today's buy-sell ratio of 0.10 means market liquidity is extremely thin—under such a shallow order book environment, any directional movement could be sharply amplified.
Conclusion
This is not a fundamentals-driven decline. Geopolitical tensions have not eased, the probability of the Federal Reserve not raising rates in September remains at 60%, and the US SEC has just formally proposed a "crypto asset regulatory framework"—there are even positive signals on the regulatory front.
This is purely a leverage liquidation. The market is brutally telling all participants: in the world of perpetual contracts, there is no "mild correction," only "liquidated" and "not yet liquidated."
BlackRock is right—the core investment thesis of Bitcoin has not changed. But surviving in this market depends not on faith, but on respect for leverage.
(This article does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset trading carries extremely high risk; please make decisions rationally.)
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 $BTC $ETH $TRUMP According to reports from Iran's ITNA news agency, amid tense circumstances, Iran has agreed to grant permits to some Iraqi oil tankers, allowing them to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This request was formally made by Iraq. Although Iran currently faces military pressure and a deteriorating geopolitical security environment in the strait, it still approved passage applications for some tankers.
Fundamental Impact Analysis
Crude Oil
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy passageway through which a large volume of crude oil is exported. Iran allowing Iraqi tankers to pass means there will be no full blockade of the route in the short term. This alleviates market panic over oil supply disruptions, suppresses crude oil's risk premium, and weakens the momentum for oil prices to surge.
However, it should be noted that only partial tanker permits were granted, not a complete reopening of the route. The root causes of geopolitical conflict remain unresolved, so the risk premium will not disappear entirely, and ongoing volatility will continue to disturb oil prices.
Gold
A significant portion of gold's upward momentum comes from Middle East geopolitical risk sentiment.
1. Short term: The strait has not been completely blocked, reducing risk expectations, which will put some pressure on gold prices and benefit bearish forces.
2. Medium to long term: Regional military confrontations remain unresolved, conflicts persist, and this geopolitical "landmine" has not been defused. After sharp declines, risk-averse buying can still enter the market at any time, so one should not be solely bearish.$POL feels like the bull market has arrived, but something feels off. I just realized, it's still uncertain if this is really a bull market. The kind where everything rises in rotation is just one coin after another cutting the leeks. Yesterday, the old dog coins rose, today the privacy sector rises, tomorrow DeFi rises. None of them have sustainability. Not a single coin has risen for three consecutive days or consistently stayed in the top three gainers. Look closely, basically the top three altcoins by daily gains often crash hard the next day. What kind of bull market is this? It feels more like taking turns cutting the leeks.#美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温
The US composite PMI rose to 56.0 in August, hitting a new high since April 2022, with the services PMI surging to 56.8; economic resilience is once again handing the Fed a reason to "raise rates." However, July's nonfarm payrolls and retail sales were weak, and the market currently prices only about a 30% chance of a rate hike in September, so don't rush to write off the hawkish scenario.
Strategy: Avoid chasing BTC/gold on the short term; be cautious with US Treasuries; if CPI and employment continue to strengthen, then consider increasing USD positions. The moment the chess clock was pressed, the entire board trembled—Solana cut the move time from 400 milliseconds to 350 milliseconds. This is not optimization; it’s an open check to all validators on the network.
In the eyes of a grandmaster, every move has its time value. From 400 to 350, seemingly a difference of fifty milliseconds, it’s like changing each three-minute move to two minutes and forty-five seconds: opening theory is completely rewritten, and the depth of calculation in the middle game is forced to compress. Solana chose the sharpest variation of the Sicilian Defense—abandoning the safe king’s side to trade space and time for counterattack. But speed on the board is always a double-edged sword; the time you press out on the clock will eventually weigh on your heart.
Shorter slot times mean faster moves; transactions, payments, and on-chain applications all crave to be a step ahead. Yet players know the cost of speed is computational capital. Validators are the opponents sitting across from you—faster processors, larger bandwidth, more complex processing logic. As the clock speeds up, some players fall into time panic. Moves fly fast, but they miss the constraints behind them. Skip rates rise, costs surge, and nodes gradually concentrate among a few opponents with heavy-duty capabilities—this is the most dangerous silence in a rapid chess match, quietly turning a draw into checkmate before the endgame even begins.
I’ve seen the most fearsome hunters in rapid chess tournaments; they keep accelerating the pace, forcing you to decide within seconds, then exploit your time panic to tear open your defenses. Solana’s 350 milliseconds is also a psychological weapon: it forces validators to confirm states in shorter cycles, and any hesitation can become a vulnerability to attack. But speed battles can’t solve all problems—the advantage in the middle game needs endgame skill to cash out. If you lose move coordination in the rush for time, even the fastest attack is just a lone knight charging into enemy lines.
From 400 to 350 is just the first step toward 200 milliseconds. True players don’t focus on the current move. When I analyze games, I’ve already calculated the endgame twenty moves ahead. If the mainnet can still hold the decentralized and stable line at a 350-millisecond pace, then this sacrifice gains full board initiative; if validators drop out due to hardware thresholds, this aggressive move will ultimately expose your king to crossfire from rooks and queens. The market never flows along a single line—when on-chain competition heats up like rapid chess, capital instinctively seeks quiet hard currency. Gold ($XAUT) is like the pawn that never moves in the endgame: it doesn’t join the bloody middle game battles, but all masters know the final outcome often depends on whether it can promote. While the rapid chess vanguard crosses the midline, gold remains seated at the start; yet under the same chess clock of the throne battle, all assets eventually meet on the same endgame board.
The chess clock keeps ticking, the king’s side is already open. You’re still excited about every 350-millisecond slot, but what I see is your king being checkmated by your own speed on the 200-millisecond board. #solanacutsslotsto350msThe US dollar fell to a three-month low, with the DXY once touching around 98.56; behind this is the US Treasury expanding long-term Treasury buybacks and the 30-year yield surging to its highest level since 2007. The market is beginning to worry about "yield compression → hurting the dollar." My strategy: do not chase the dollar in the short term; gold and BTC can continue to be viewed bullishly, but it is not advisable to chase the rally; if the DXY falls below 98, the dollar's weakness may further strengthen, and gold and crypto assets may continue to benefit. The hardest concrete test block in four years was smashed right in front of me today—August's composite PMI hit a four-year high, but I saw an irregular crack on the side wall of the test block: the service sector is as tough as rebar, while manufacturing is as weak as expired cement by a small margin. The entire construction site is applauding that the "foundation hasn't collapsed," but holding the rebound hammer, I only heard a "click" deep within the crack—that's the FOMC load-bearing wall changing its stress direction.
There are always people in the industry who treat white papers as blueprints, drawing visions taller than the Empire State Building. But real architects know that a white paper is just a conceptual rendering; the reinforcement ratio of load-bearing walls, the dewatering level of the foundation pit, and the fatigue load curve over thirty consecutive years are what determine whether this "protocol skyscraper" can stand for the next decade. PMI is just a momentary dynamic load test, while the long-term resilience of the underlying structure depends on whether it can absorb the thermal stress of the steel framework during the interest rate hike cycle.
What you see in the macro data is the official completion drawing; what I see are the hidden engineering acceptance records. The 9-3 vote in July was like three engineers on the supervision team marking red circles on this wall. Previous CPI, PPI, and employment market data resembled a low-grade pour—the strength just wouldn't rise, so September's standstill seemed reasonable. But today, as this PMI steel beam was hoisted, demand resilience became a permanent floor load, and all the drawings must be recalculated for load combinations.
I casually flipped through the US Treasury yield calculation book: it's like a double coupler on scaffolding, clamped between bulls and bears. As the pressure per share increases, the entire scaffold's displacement synchronously amplifies—stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, these three components are locked by the same "interest rate expectation" diagonal brace. Stocks are the core tube, gold is the seismic joint, and Bitcoin? It was never a structural member; it's a cantilever slab, held in midair by half a centimeter of confidence—when the wind speed reaches a certain level, it will be the first to resonate.
As for XEWY, it's just a standard aluminum panel on a prefabricated floor slab, with qualified material, but whether it can be fixed depends on the embedded anchor bolts on site—that is, the tightening mechanics of US dollar liquidity. No one dares to relax on this link.
Now I stand on the strongest "foundation" in four years, yet I feel the ground beneath my feet heating up. Designers all understand an iron rule: the harder the foundation, the greater the acceleration response during an earthquake. This is not bad news, but not good news either—it simply tells you that the next blueprint must use a different calculation model. #uspmireviveshikebets$TRUMP Feels like a bull market is coming, but something feels off. I just realized, this kind of market isn't even confirmed as a bull market yet. The whole market is rotating gains, like each sector taking turns to cut the retail traders. Yesterday, the old-school coins went up, today the privacy sector rises, tomorrow DeFi surges. None of them have sustainability. Not a single coin has been up for three consecutive days or consistently ranked in the top three gainers. Look closely, basically the top three altcoins by daily gains often crash hard the next day. What kind of bull market is this? It feels more like a cycle of cutting retail traders one after another.$ZAMA Feels like the bull market is here, but something feels off. I just realized, this kind of market isn't even confirmed as a bull market yet. The whole thing is just rotating gains, like one after another cutting the retail investors. Yesterday, the old-school coins went up, today the privacy sector rises, tomorrow DeFi goes up. None of them have sustainability. Not a single coin has been in the top three gainers for three consecutive days. Look closely, basically the top three altcoins by daily gains often crash hard the next day. What kind of bull market is this? It feels more like a cycle of cutting retail investors.#Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？
$SOL｜$93.8, 24h +4.2%, trading volume 712 million, resistance 97, support 87.
The mainnet has reduced block intervals from 400ms to 350ms, with a future target of 200ms, enabling faster transaction confirmations and improving on-chain meme and DeFi experiences.
After the speed upgrade, the hardware requirements for validator nodes have effectively increased, making it easier for low-spec servers to miss blocks and be penalized by staking, increasing operational pressure on small nodes and posing some centralization risks; meanwhile, storage rent has been reduced by 90%, causing on-chain data to expand and further increasing the storage burden on nodes.
This benefits ecosystem activity and optimizes the trading experience for on-chain projects and meme coins; risks lie in the upgrade iteration process, where network stability and node decentralization need continuous monitoring.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. A few words about last night's US stock market.
On Friday, the three major indices all closed higher. The Dow rose 0.98% to 53,277 points, the S&P 500 increased 0.43% to 7,674 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.44% to 26,180 points. However, looking at the whole week, all three indices closed lower on the weekly chart.
The US August services PMI rose to 56.8, marking the strongest expansion since December 2024. But the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high at 4.736%, and the 30-year yield surged to 5.275%. The Treasury's repurchase maneuver only held for one day; long-term bond yields have returned.
But the AI hardware sector shows a completely different picture. Storage stocks rebounded across the board—SK Hynix up 4.43%, Micron up 3.97%, SanDisk up 2.02%. Optical communications also strengthened simultaneously, with Lumentum up 6.24%, and Marvell Technology up 5.79%. Capital is still selectively buying, not fully withdrawing.
The core contradiction remains unchanged—the US Treasury yields won't come down, and high-valuation tech stocks are struggling to breathe. Storage and optical communications rise, the seven giants fall; within the same market, each moves independently. My position here is not heavy; I'll wait to see when US Treasury yields can stabilize.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 TSM back to $420, can the leader hold?
Conclusion: TSMC's fundamentals remain strong, but $420 is just the first observation point in your watchlist, not an automatic buy at that price; positioned as "neutral with a slight offensive bias," wait for trend confirmation first.
Keywords: advanced process, 2nm, CoWoS, customer ecosystem. It does not design chips but manufactures advanced chips and packages for global customers, with process yield, massive capital investment, design tools, and customer trust forming its moat.
Q2 revenue was $40.2 billion, up 33.7% year-over-year; net profit increased 77.4%, gross margin 67.7%. 7nm and below accounted for 77% of wafer revenue, 2nm has contributed 3%; July revenue was NT$467.6 billion, up 44.7%, indicating AI demand is still materializing. Q3 guidance revenue is $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion.
Risks include Taiwan Strait geopolitics, overseas plant costs dragging gross margin, heavy capital expenditure, customer self-development, and industry cycles; next catalyst is the August revenue announcement on September 10 to verify 2nm and AI capacity ramp-up.
Technical aspect: On August 21, closed at $420.52, $420 is only a support observation point, watch for a rebound above $426 for recovery; if it breaks below, watch $396, touching it does not mean buying.
Memory point: TSM sells not a chip story, but the world's scarcest manufacturing capacity for advanced computing power. Data as of US market close on August 21, 2026. #
For research record only, not investment advice $TSM $xTSM Everyone thinks the bull market is here for $ZEC, but it's actually a rotating rally, where each sector takes turns to cut the retail traders. Yesterday it was the old-school coins rising, today it's the privacy sector, tomorrow DeFi will rise. None of them have sustainability. No coin has continuously risen for three days or stayed in the top three gainers consistently. Basically, after a rise, the next day they crash hard. What kind of bull market is this? It feels more like a cycle of cutting retail traders in turns.$PEPE PEPE 0.000004182, pulled from 0.00000337 up to 0.00000456, a 35% increase in one day. The meme market cap has exceeded $30 billion — this number means the Meme coin sector has shifted from a "fringe asset" to a "legitimate track." No matter how you view Meme coins, the market has voted with money. 😅
SAR=0.00000456 is exactly pressing on the 24-hour high, the price just touched SAR and then pulled back. EMA21=0.00000338, EMA55=0.00000302, the price deviates from EMA55 by over 40%. RSI6=90.99, RSI12=90.69, RSI24=86.69 — almost the same data as the DOGE and TRUMP wave. Volume is 1.83 quadrillion, turnover is 766 million, the average transaction price is ridiculously low — a large amount of turnover happened at extremely low price ranges, the chip structure is very loose.
To be honest, this PEPE wave is a bit different from the TRUMP wave. TRUMP had Bonk Guy shouting and political narratives; PEPE’s rise looks more like a capital overflow effect from the overall Meme sector — DOGE went up, TRUMP went up, funds naturally flow to the next Meme coin that hasn’t risen yet. This kind of "sector rotation" style rise usually has weaker sustainability than a rise driven by a single news event.
Comment below, do you think PEPE can reach 0.000005? Or is 0.0000045 the short-term top? My account is still empty, but I’m curious about your views. 🫡
When the meme market cap exceeds $30 billion, you’re actually no longer investing in Meme coins, you’re investing in "emotion itself." Emotion comes fast and goes fast. If you disagree, come argue and show your trades. 😅$TRUMP Everyone thinks it's a bull market, but it's actually a rotating rally, where each sector takes turns cutting the retail investors. Yesterday it was the old dog rising, today it's the privacy sector, tomorrow DeFi will rise. None of them have sustainability. No coin has risen for three consecutive days or consistently ranked in the top three gainers. Basically, after the rise, the next day it crashes hard. What kind of bull market is this? It looks more like a rotation of cutting retail investors.3. Deep Mechanism: Why Can a 3% Pullback Kill 547 Million?
To understand this flash crash, you can't just look at the 15-minute chart.
BlackRock already provided a framework in their August white paper: Bitcoin fell from a high of over $120,000 in October 2025 to below $60,000 in June 2026, due to extreme speculative positions and shifts in capital flow, rather than a structural change in the long-term trend. In the high-leverage offshore perpetual futures market, open interest once climbed to over $90 billion.
This flash crash is a microcosm of the same logic. The rebound in August itself was a phase of short squeeze under a deleveraging backdrop—shorts were eliminated, and longs became overcrowded. When the price hit the technical resistance zone at $79,500, the 4-hour RSI remained in the overbought region, and the ADX reported an extreme value of 87.4, giving the market a clear technical signal: trend exhaustion.
And today is just the moment this exhaustion is realized.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $BTC $ETH $DOGE $TRUMP TRUMP 2.996, pulled from 1.7 to 3.68, doubling in one day. Bonk Guy shouted, “USELESS is entering its first real bull market” — last time this guy shouted, DOGE went up, BONK went up, now it's his turn to shout TRUMP. Gotta say, sometimes storytelling ability is indeed more important than reading the K-line. 😂
SAR=1.862 below, EMA21=1.859, EMA55=1.632, price deviates from EMA55 by more than $1.3. RSI6=93.30, RSI12=90.28, RSI24=86.86 — almost exactly the same data as that wave with ZEC and DOGE. The explosive pattern of Meme coins is really consistent: first a piece of news comes out, then the price surges, then RSI hits 90, then people start asking “Can I still chase?”, and then nothing follows.
Honestly, from DOGE to TRUMP, the basic logic of Meme coins is actually very similar. They don’t rely on fundamentals, but on narrative and sentiment. If the market accepts the narrative, the price can surge; once sentiment fades, the price returns to where it should be. This game can be played, but you have to be very clear about what you’re playing.
Comment below, do you think TRUMP can reach 5? Or is 3.6 the short-term top? My account is still empty, but I’m curious about your views. 🫡
When Bonk Guy starts shouting about a coin, it’s often when that coin’s hype is at its peak. When hype is at its peak, risk is usually the greatest. Will this time be the same? If you disagree, come argue, show your orders and speak. 😅#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
Gold has gone completely crazy.
The anomaly is that gold is rising while U.S. Treasury yields remain high.
What does this mean for the crypto space? Two things.
First, Bitcoin is being categorized by traditional big players as a "safe-haven asset." Ray Dalio's previous attitude toward Bitcoin was "I don't understand it," but now he directly recommends "a small allocation." This shift itself is a trend signal.
Second, gold and Bitcoin are strengthening simultaneously. Gold has risen, and Bitcoin has also surged to 79,000 in the past two days. Funds on both sides are flowing simultaneously into non-sovereign assets. This is not a coincidence; it is the same group of funds reallocating—from U.S. Treasuries to gold and Bitcoin.
Here is my view. Gold is charging upward despite a 5.25% U.S. Treasury yield, which is more important than how much gold itself has risen. It is telling the market that the boundaries of U.S. dollar credit are being retested. What Dalio is signaling is not "gold will rise," but "U.S. dollar credit is loosening."
As for the outlook, I suggest remaining cautious. Both downward and upward moves are possible now. Instead of speculating on price swings, it's better to wait for a clear direction before entering the market.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC ETF inflows are not evidence of directionality but fuel for already structured positions. The moment the market interprets ETF inflows as the basis for a rise, what should we check in the derivatives market? On Thursday, US spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $606 million in BTC and $221 million in ETH, totaling about $827 million. The numbers themselves are strong. However, before interpreting this trend simply as institutional buying, it is necessary to separate the expectations already priced in from the variables that have yet to be priced in. ETF inflows are both a factor in spot demand and an expanding basis for the futures market. In other words, a significant portion of these funds may be part of arbitrage positions. Currently, the market is more sensitive to whether additional leverage to support the price increase can be introduced rather than the price increase itself. The significance of this influx for market structure can be summarized as follows. - As long as net ETF inflows continue, CME basis will expand, which will lead to futures selling pressure from arbitrage funds. - This gift【The Real Catalyst for ADA Might Be BTC DeFi】
$ADA has surged over 21% in the past 7 days, with trading volume and on-chain activity heating up simultaneously. But price is just the surface; the key is whether Cardano can convert its technology into capital inflow next.
Charles Hoskinson stated that Cardano's $BTC DeFi has secured about $500M in soft commitments, potentially breaking $1B in the future. The team also compressed the BTC DeFi proof from 40GB down to 28.1MB, reducing verification time from 354 seconds to 0.149 seconds, and cutting costs from $14,000 to $37.
On another front, Leios has tested throughput at about 6 times the current Cardano capacity, and Midnight ($NIGHT) has partnered with CertiK for security collaboration.
The logic behind this is simple. If Cardano can enable institutions and retail users to earn yields with BTC at the click of a button, even absorbing a small portion of idle BTC could significantly boost Cardano's TVL and ADA usage demand.
Of course, $500M in commitments does not mean it’s already on-chain, and technical tests do not equal real adoption.
Do you think BTC DeFi will become ADA's biggest catalyst in the next cycle? #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
Damn! Gold prices just broke through the $4600 mark, directly puncturing the $40 trillion false prosperity of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Gold surged more than 5% this week, and those stubborn old-timers clinging to U.S. debt must be turning pale with anger.
Stop talking nonsense about war being the only safe haven; that's pure rubbish and simply not the case.
The real killer isn't those surface issues, but the dollar becoming increasingly worthless, buying less and less.
The U.S. owes $40 trillion in debt, barely holding up under the pressure; just the annual interest burns over $1 trillion, more than many countries earn in a year.
The Treasury tried to suppress interest rates by buying more bonds? It only lasted a day before collapsing!
Dalio spoke up again: stop clinging to bonds, allocate 10% to 15% in gold, and grab some Bitcoin on the side to hedge against the government wiping out debt by printing money.
He warns that in three to five years, the U.S. might face a massive debt crisis. It sounds scary, but the numbers are clear: debt has already exceeded $40 trillion, interest keeps rising, and the illusion of bond safety is being shattered by reality.
The proportion of gold in global central bank reserves has surged; Japan and other countries have bought hundreds of tons of gold in just six months. U.S. Treasuries are being treated like trash and thrown away. This isn’t just portfolio rebalancing; it’s like packing up and running away in the middle of the night.
Look at some analysts on X: gold had a chance to stop at 3800, but it insisted on charging to 4600. Now the market has to swallow the consequences.
Some think Dalio’s call to allocate Bitcoin is like lighting up a signpost showing where big institutional money is headed. The big direction is set; it’s just accelerating now.
There’s also a group of KOLs who played dead when gold was at the bottom and only came out shouting when it surged—true Monday morning quarterbacks.
Bitcoin also took off this week, shooting up to around $78,000, and Ethereum climbed back above 2400.
Retail investors are still slowly waiting for signals, while gold ETFs sucked up over ten tons in a day, and Bitcoin is still slowly digesting the selling pressure from those who have already made enough profit and exited.
But what’s really driving the market is the weakening dollar, growing fiscal pressure, and increasing distrust in credit.
Even if long-term U.S. Treasury yields rise, they can’t stop funds from rushing into gold and Bitcoin, because many are starting to doubt whether bonds can still be a safe haven or if they’re actually a bigger pit.
Don’t be fooled by superficial safe-haven talk; this wave is a collective loss of trust in fiat currency systems.$BTC breaks $75K: Devaluation trade in the final short squeeze vs. resurgence of rate hike narrative #BTC 🏛 Macro US stocks led by tech decline during session/close: Nasdaq 100 (QQQ perpetual) −0.8%, Dow −0.8%, S&P −0.4% — mega-caps all green (TSLA/GOOGL/META/AMZN/ORCL). But crypto-related stocks strengthen independently: COIN +7.3%, MSTR +8.7%, BMNR +1.9%, CRCL +5.5% = crypto rally vs. US stock risk-off, divergence continues. Rate hike narrative resurges: oil jumps again (WTI $86.4 +2.3%), lon#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
Although ETFs have overall net inflows, it doesn't mean they only buy and never sell every day. Institutional funds enter the market in batches, and after a significant rally, some short-term institutions will choose to take profits and exit.
Currently, Strategy shows huge unrealized gains on paper. Although its public strategy is to hold long-term without selling, the market worries that if there is a sharp price fluctuation, large chips might flow out, which would bring potential selling pressure to the market.
The current market situation is: the medium- to long-term underlying logic still holds, but short-term profit-taking pressure is heavy.
Even if the overall trend is bullish, there will be repeated shakeouts at high levels to wash out floating chips chasing highs, making it easier to continue upward.
Hidden variables at the macro level
The current market benefits from a weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields. But these two conditions are not set in stone.
• If subsequent US economic data strengthens again, the market will raise rate hike expectations, the dollar will rebound, and risk assets including BTC will come under pressure.
• Data like non-farm payrolls and CPI can disrupt the current upward momentum at any time; these are external variables that cannot be ignored.
The dual nature of regulatory expectations
The market is currently pricing in "regulation will improve." Trump supports crypto legislation, and institutions are voicing positive signals.
But this is only market expectation; the legislation has not yet been truly implemented.
Expectations are priced in ahead of time; when the legislation actually lands, it might be seen as the boot dropping, turning into a realization of good news. If legislative progress falls short of expectations, the market will be directly hit.
Interpretation of market behavior
The hourly MACD death cross is currently just the first correction signal and does not mean the bull market is over.
In a bull market, it is common to see: after a big bullish candle, the market enters a wide high-level consolidation, sweeping stop losses up and down.
• Even if new highs are made later, it is very likely to first oscillate back and forth rather than rise straight up.
• If the 74311 support is broken, do not stubbornly hold the view that "the bull market won't fall." A rapid short-term drop will occur, with the next support at MA90 near 71102. 2. The Inside Story of Liquidation: Who Is Being Wiped Out?
A liquidation scale of $547 million is not the largest in the 2026 liquidation event timeline—over the past 72 hours, the crypto market has seen cumulative liquidations exceeding $5 billion—but its structure is extremely unique.
First, the background. During the previous uptrend, shorts were systematically crushed. The August rebound liquidated about $1 billion to $3.5 billion worth of short positions within different 24-hour windows. After the shorts were cleared out, longs began to flood in—they bet on the continuation of the trend and heavily built positions above $79,000.
Then, the pullback came.
From $79,500 to $77,000, a mere 3% drop is a death sentence for perpetual contracts with 50x or even 100x leverage. Long positions were liquidated in a chain reaction, and the vast majority of the $547 million was from long liquidations. Ironically, in the past 24 hours, the total contract liquidations across the network reached $1.575 billion, with short liquidations at $1.27 billion and long liquidations only $310 million—this means that over a longer timeframe, the main wiped-out players were the bears. Today, it’s the longs’ turn to pay back.
Ethereum’s situation is even more extreme. ETH rebounded about 18% from a low of $2,139 to $2,518, then plunged 2.76% within 15 minutes to $2,382, with a volatility amplitude as high as 5.40%. In the past hour, Ethereum liquidations totaled $108 million, surpassing Bitcoin’s $50.94 million and XRP’s $48 million. The 4-hour ADX indicator soared to an extreme level of 90.19—in technical analysis terms, this means the trend has entered an "overheated" state, and mean reversion is almost inevitable.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 Samsung’s 2026 shareholder-return plan, set at KRW90T–KRW110T ($65B–$80B), puts capital allocation at the center of Korea’s AI-memory cycle. Returning 50% of cumulative 2024–2026 free cash flow through dividends, buybacks and cancellations may support valuations, but the more important signal will be how management balances distributions against HBM and advanced-node investment.
With SK Hynix also planning a roughly KRW40T buyback and cancellation, the sector is testing whether stronger cash generation can reward shareholders without weakening the next expansion phase. My read: disciplined flexibility matters more than the headline ceiling. NFA.
#SamsungPayoutUpTo80BMicron is doubling down on AI storage this time, and what I see is not just a research investment
but the U.S. semiconductor industry starting to bring "memory" back to the strategic center. In past AI narratives, everyone loved to talk about GPUs, as if all intelligence grew on compute cards. But when it comes to large models and data center deployment, bottlenecks increasingly appear in memory, storage, packaging, and power consumption—areas that aren't as glamorous.
Micron's long-term R&D investment is essentially a bet on one direction: future AI competition won't just be about whose model is smarter, but about who can make data flow faster, more efficiently, and more stably.
This kind of investment may not immediately show up in the profit sheet in the short term, but it will change the industry's bargaining power. In the second half of AI, even the shovel sellers have to start reinventing their shovels.
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 Evaluating $OKB should not be based solely on "low supply." The real factors to track are: whether X Layer has users; whether on-chain transactions are increasing; and whether Exchange OS generates genuine demand for OKB. Contracts can hype expectations in advance, but if usage data doesn't keep up with the price, those expectations will eventually need to be repriced. From on-chain data and K-line structure, BTC is emerging from the previous bear market phase. Of course, it's probably too early to tell whether this is a false breakout or a trend reversal; only the market ahead can verify it (personally, I think it’s a breakout).
A brief review shows an average cost of $64792, which is barely acceptable, but I still feel some regret.
The reason for the regret is that in the last cycle, I only looked at a few common indicators casually. This time, I took it seriously, thoroughly analyzing on-chain data, cycle models, and backtesting many indicators.
However, knowing is easy but doing is hard; deep down, I am still greedy. Black swans, exchange outages, unplugged cables, and the frantic search for U in the market... these scenarios have played over and over in my mind. Yet, none of them happened. Maybe they will in the future, or maybe not."From 79,500 to 77,000: How a 3% Pullback Erased $547 Million — Full Dissection of the August 22 Crypto Market Flash Crash"
By Market Watch
15 minutes. It took Bitcoin just a quarter of an hour to drop from a daily high of $79,520 to below $76,500. A move of 1.42%, with a volatility range of 2.67% — in traditional markets, this might be considered a normal pullback, but in the crypto derivatives world, it means $547 million worth of positions were wiped out intraday.
This was not a "crash," but a meticulously orchestrated leveraged slaughter.
1. Market Turnaround: From "Digital Gold" to Profit Taking
The drama of today's move lies in its progression. Prior to this, Bitcoin had just experienced a fierce August rally — surging from lows around $64,000-$65,000 all the way up to $79,500. The driving forces came from two directions: first, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, with US-Iran standoff intensifying, pushing gold above $4,600 and crude oil soaring 7-8% over five days, lending strong support to BTC's "digital gold" narrative; second, the US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term bond repurchase operations, doubling from about $2 billion to over $4 billion.
However, the problem was that once these macro tailwinds were fully priced in, profit-taking sentiment erupted. Between 05:00-05:15 (UTC), sell orders flooded in like a tidal wave — order book depth became extremely imbalanced, with a buy-to-sell ratio of only 0.10. This means for every 1 buy order, there were 10 sell orders queued. In such a shallow order book environment, the price was hanging by a thread.
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