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$SNDK How will the market move tonight?
Recently, I've been analyzing the direction of the US stock market for everyone, and the advice given has consistently been to short on rallies, with target points successfully realized. It's not just luck on my part; the market had already given signals.
Last night, the lowest drop reached 1419. This is not due to any fundamental issues with SanDisk, but because the entire storage sector is cooling down. Funds have already withdrawn from the US stock market and flowed into the outbound market. The market is starting to worry whether the AI storage rally has been overhyped, and investors are re-evaluating whether the massive capital expenditures on AI can continue to bring sufficient returns.
Another concern is that the market fears Apple might increase its procurement of storage chips from Chinese suppliers in the future, which would put greater competitive pressure on US and Korean storage manufacturers. Therefore, I suggest waiting until after the US stock market opens to find an entry point; trading with more certainty will be more comfortable.Damn! $BEAT released over 20 million tokens in early August during a big unlock (about 7% of the circulating supply at that time), and the selling pressure still hasn't cleared.
The recent rebound is mostly a technical correction after a severe drop; the fundamentals haven't suddenly improved.
The project itself is Audiera, a rhythm game + AI music platform on the BNB chain, generating real income through users playing games and AI creating music, then using that income to buy back and burn BEAT.
In the past week, over 800,000 tokens were burned, with a cumulative burn exceeding 21 million tokens. Income continues to outpace the burn, so this deflation mechanism is genuinely in effect. But the burn rate is still a drop in the bucket compared to the big unlock; digesting the new tokens will take time.
From a technical perspective, the weak structure hasn't been completely reversed.
If the rebound volume continues to shrink, the tokens in hand might loosen again, and the price could easily drop another round.
The fundamentals have real cash income plus ongoing burns to support the floor, so at least it's not a pure air coin.
However, the selling pressure from the big unlock hasn't eased yet, so don't expect too much in the short term. It's better to wait until volume and trend structure confirm before making a move.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $BTC News｜BlackRock Lowers Bitcoin Physical Subscription Threshold, Accelerating Crypto Asset Migration to ETFs
In July, BlackRock reduced the minimum physical subscription size for the IBIT Bitcoin ETF from $25 million to $1 million.
Physical subscription mechanism: Investors directly transfer Bitcoin to the fund in exchange for ETF shares, without needing to buy Bitcoin with cash.
- BlackRock IBIT: The total scale of physical conversions has exceeded $5 billion, up from $3 billion in October last year;
- Bitwise lowered its similar physical subscription threshold from $100 million to $3 million.
After U.S. regulators allowed physical subscriptions, institutions and large holders can directly convert their existing BTC into ETF shares. This avoids selling on the secondary market or large sell-offs on exchanges, completing an asset form conversion.
Market Signal Interpretation
1. The significant lowering of the threshold means a broader range of participants
Previously, only super large institutions could participate starting at $25 million; now, $1 million level funds can do physical subscriptions. Family offices and mid-sized asset managers will more often migrate BTC from cold wallets into standardized ETF shares.
2. Existing Bitcoin continues to be "locked into the ETF system"
This is not new cash buying Bitcoin off-market, but existing Bitcoin moving from private wallets to ETF fund holdings. This further reduces the amount of sellable supply in the circulating market.
3. Infrastructure is gradually maturing
Multiple institutions lowering thresholds simultaneously indicates the physical subscription/redemption process is operational and becoming a normalized industry tool.
⚠️Note: Physical subscription does not equal pure net inflow; it is just an asset form conversion. Cash subscription represents new external funds entering the market. These two indicators should be distinguished.
Two concepts to distinguish
✅Cash subscription: Using USD cash, the fund buys BTC on the market, representing new buying demand
✅Physical subscription: Users hand over their existing BTC to the fund in exchange for ETF shares, representing stock migration without new off-market funds
#BTC #IBIT #BlackRockETF #PhysicalSubscription #OKXPlanet这两天我重新把宏观消息和盘面放在一起看，发现一个很有信息量的变化： 表面上大家在交易伊朗、Strategy、美国国债，实际上三条线最后都指向同一个东西——流动性。 先说原油。 美国继续加大对伊朗的经济制裁，但油价反而单日跌超3%。原因不是伊朗风险消失了，而是市场开始把“军事冲突升级”重新定价成“经济施压”。只要霍尔木兹没有进一步恶化，最极端的供应中断溢价就会下降。Brent一度回落至约89美元。 这对Crypto反而重要。 油价降温＝通胀尾部风险减弱。如果后面能源价格继续回落，长债收益率又被压下来，$BTC、$ETH 这种流动性敏感资产会比单纯看“降不降息”更舒服。 第二条线是Strategy。 Strategy刚刚单独划出约**16亿美元USD Cash**，未来可以用于购买 $BTC、回购股票以及其他资金管理。这个变化我觉得比“它又买了多少BTC”更值得看：以前市场习惯于融资→买币→继续融资，现在它开始主动留现金，相当于既保留弹药，也降低被迫卖币的风险。 第三条线更关键——美国财政部。 财政部已经宣布把10—30年长期国债的流动性回购规模，从每次最多20亿美元至少提高到40亿美元，$98 SOL, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: violent surge, retail FOMO rushing in.
A week ago it was still at 70, now it’s touching 100, a rise of over 40%. Daily RSI generally between 85-88, insanely overbought. 24-hour trading volume is $4-7 billion, volume clearly expanding. The candlestick tells you: weekly break through the 81-90 resistance zone, bullish structure confirmed. Strong trend established, but short-term is hot to the touch.
First thing: ETF money is flowing in real cash, not just talk.
US stock SOL spot ETF cumulative net inflow has broken the $1.2 billion record, with a single-day high exceeding $33 million. Bitwise BSOL has the largest share, trading volume hitting new highs.
SOL is replicating the BTC and ETH ETF playbook. Institutional buying is solid bottom support, not comparable to retail FOMO. Same story: BTC from 40k to 70k, ETH from 2k to 4k, now it’s SOL’s turn.
Second thing: double deflation vote, this is the real trump card.
Validators are voting on SGP-0002 and SGP-0003, deadline August 27, 15:30 UTC.
SGP-0002: About 18.9 million fewer SOL issued over the next 6 years, equivalent to double deflation.
SGP-0003: Daily burn volume surges from about 650 SOL to 7,500-9,000 SOL, increasing more than tenfold.
Supply reduction + burn surge = supply-demand reversal. If the vote passes, SOL’s scarcity will step up directly.
Third thing: a technical signal that must be taken seriously has appeared.
Weekly clean break through the 81-90 resistance zone, volume cooperating, bullish structure confirmed. But daily RSI 85-88, a classic "strong trend + overheating" combo.
At the 100 level, SOL is repeatedly testing. Will it break through directly to 110-115, or pull back to 94-96 or even 90 to gather strength?
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
Spot ETF cumulative inflow breaks $1.2 billion, institutional real cash
High probability of double deflation vote passing, supply shock narrative brewing
Weekly breakout + volume cooperation, bullish structure established
Network performance continuously optimized (slot time 350ms → target 200ms), RWA breaks $4 billion
On the other side:
Daily RSI 85-88, extremely overbought
100 psychological level repeatedly tested, profit-taking pressure high
Jackson Hole speech may be hawkish, macro uncertainties
If vote unexpectedly fails, sentiment reversal could be fierce
Resistance above: 100-103.5 → 105-110 → 115+ (Fib extension)
Support below: 94-96 → 90 → 78-80 (previous resistance turned support)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for pullback to 94-96 to stabilize and go long, stop loss at 90, targets 103.5 → 110. If volume expands and holds above 103.5, chase longs, stop loss below 100, target 110-115.
Conservative players:
Patiently wait for a pullback to the 90 area, see volume stabilize before building positions in batches. This is the best risk-reward entry. Stop loss below 88, same targets as above.
Bearish players:
Only short lightly near 102-105 if obvious stagnation appears (long upper shadow + volume contraction), stop loss above 105, target 98-96.
Mid-to-long term core logic:
If the August 27 vote passes + ETF inflows continue, SOL’s mid-term target looks at previous highs or even higher. Reassess if it breaks below 80. Spot holders, set trailing take profits, don’t get shaken out.
SOL now is like when it broke 80 at the end of 2023—
99% of people thought "it’s risen too much and will correct," but after a 15% pullback it surged all the way to 200+.
On the day it breaks 103.5, you’ll realize:
It’s not that SOL is weak, it’s that you hesitate at the lowest points and FOMO at the highest.
Tell me in the comments: what’s your SOL cost basis?
At $98, do you dare to chase?
$BTC $ETH $SOL This round of rally is not purely driven by sentiment.
The weakening of the US dollar and the US Treasury's increased long-term bond repurchase efforts have reignited expectations of a "currency devaluation trade"; the Trump team's push for clearer crypto regulation legislation has also reduced policy uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $1.9 billion last week, marking the strongest weekly record since October last year, clearly indicating institutional funds re-entering the market.
Short sellers faced massive liquidations during the breakout, further amplifying the upward momentum.
80000 is still just a "breakthrough" rather than a "hold." After reaching the high, the price quickly fell back to the 79000 range and oscillated, showing both selling pressure above and profit-taking coexist.
As an important psychological threshold and previous resistance zone, 80000 has historically been a tug-of-war point between bulls and bears multiple times. If it cannot effectively hold above and reclaim key moving averages on the daily chart, there is still a short-term risk of a pullback or even a false breakout.
Whether it can truly hold depends on three key points: first, whether ETF funds can continue to flow in rather than just a short-lived pulse; second, whether the macro factors of the US dollar and US Treasury yields continue to cooperate; third, whether the market can digest the recent rapid gains and avoid falling back into high-level oscillation.
The current market has shifted from one-sided pessimism to cautious optimism, but Bitcoin's volatility nature remains unchanged. The breakout is just the beginning; holding the level is the real test. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Macro Background: Debasement Trade is the Core Driving Force
U.S. Treasury Expands Bond Buybacks — Direct Trigger
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the scale of long-term bond buybacks will at least double from $2 billion per transaction to $4 billion (effective September 9). This move lowers long-term bond yields and weakens the dollar, directly igniting the "debasement trade" — holding assets not controlled by the government to hedge against currency depreciation risk. Bitcoin's correlation with gold has risen to 0.5, while its correlation with the S&P 500 has dropped close to zero. The market is positioning BTC as the core asset for the "debasement trade."
Trump Signals Pro-Crypto Regulation
The Trump administration has signaled pro-crypto regulatory policies, further boosting market expectations for regulatory clarity.
Fed's Dovish Stance
The global central bank annual meeting released a dovish tone, U.S. Treasury yields remain low and volatile, the dollar index weakens, and expectations for a macro easing cycle continue to inject liquidity premium into the crypto market.
$BTC $ETH $NOT #财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ The Four Kings of BTCFi: Who is the True Leader in This Bull Market?
The biggest main theme of this bull market is definitely BTCFi, but many people can't distinguish the real hierarchy of STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY, leading to chaotic buying, mistimed moves, and inability to hold onto major bull stocks.
BTCFi will not be dominated by a single player but will instead see a segmented and divided market, with four categories of targets corresponding to four types of capital logic and four different growth ceilings.
First Tier: CORE (The Absolute Comprehensive Leader)
CORE is not a Bitcoin L2; it is an independent Bitcoin hashrate L1 public chain, which is its biggest differentiating advantage.
Relying on Bitcoin hashrate as a security foundation and fully EVM-compatible, it is the only one among the four kings that has completed a commercial closed loop and entered the revenue era.
By 2026, with institutional staking of lstBTC, SatPay cross-border payments, and on-chain fees continuously generating real cash flow, there is an expectation of buybacks. The principal assets are locked on the BTC mainnet, and the security model is institutionally recognized.
It is the most fundamentally strong, narratively compelling, practically implemented, and capital-capacity leader in this BTCFi cycle, with the highest certainty for the main upward wave.
Second Tier: BABY (The Highest Long-Term Odds Dark Horse)
BABY follows the top-tier underlying security route, not engaging in DeFi or applications, only Bitcoin security leasing.
BTC remains entirely in native addresses, with no custody, no cross-chain, and zero-risk staking, making it currently the most trusted BTCFi model. It is heavily backed by top-tier capital and has no competitors in its niche.
The downside is slow breakout and a focus on underlying infrastructure, making it more suitable for long-term positions of over a year. It is expected to undergo value revaluation in the mid-to-late stages of this bull market.
Third Tier: STX (Stable Defensive Type)
STX is a veteran Bitcoin native L2, focusing on BTC-denominated yields, with steady institutional recognition.
However, its fatal flaw is lack of EVM compatibility, limiting developer ecosystem expansion and making it difficult to attract massive new capital.
It is suitable for stable allocation and capturing cyclical dividends but unlikely to experience a super main upward wave, with its growth ceiling locked.
Fourth Tier: MERL (Purely Cyclical Elastic Target)
Merlin's ZK technology is solid, but assets rely on MPC custody, posing counterparty risk, which naturally deters large institutional funds.
Its market performance is entirely tied to inscription popularity, with explosive gains in bull markets and severe drops in bear markets. It is a typical sentiment-driven swing target without independent long-term growth logic.
Final Summary
To capture the main rise and fundamental resonance in this cycle: heavy position in CORE
For extreme safety and long-term bottom accumulation: allocate BABY
For stable value preservation and low volatility holding: choose STX
To speculate on short-term trends and capitalize on inscription elasticity: small position in MERL
The core to making money in a bull market: choosing the right track and tier is ten times more important than frequently switching coins.
#BTCFi #CORE #BABY #STX #MERLFrom independently downgrading L1 to L2, and then directly announcing chain shutdown and DAO dissolution, the veteran crypto project Lisk has finally reached the last step of this "graceful exit." The team's final proposal, seemingly under the banner of "large-scale deflation" and "community benefits," is actually a carefully arranged asset wrap-up and governance liquidation. 1. Burning 100 million tokens: deflation benefit or "burning paper assets"? The proposal plans to forcibly reduce the total supply of LSK from 400 million by 25% to 300 million, directly canceling 100 million tokens originally allocated to the DAO treasury from 2027 to 2033. Surface logic: strong token deflation, directly sealing off potential future dilution pressure. Underlying logic: given that the Lisk Chain shutdown has been finalized, when the underlying infrastructure and ecosystem applications no longer exist, the "ecosystem fund" originally planned for DAO governance over the next 7 years has lost its foundation. Burning this yet-to-be-unlocked "virtual asset" essentially uses the act of burning paper reserves to give the existing circulating supply a final psychological painkiller. 2. Complete power retrieval: DAO governance ends, 47 million LSK returns to the entity The proposal clearly transfers about 47 million LSK already vested and available by 2026 to the entity company Lisk Ltd, and stops all DAO governance functions. The decentralized DAO facade is completely removed at this moment 1. What is "Small Nonfarm"?
The ADP employment data is released monthly on the first Wednesday by the American company Automatic Data Processing (ADP), which counts changes in employment in the U.S. private sector. Because the sample covers about 500,000 companies and over 26 million employees, it is often regarded as a leading indicator of the official nonfarm payroll data, hence the name "Small Nonfarm." However, the two have different statistical scopes—ADP covers only the private sector, while nonfarm includes all industries except agriculture (including the public sector). Moreover, ADP data has shown deviations several times in recent years, and the capital market's attention to it has somewhat declined.
2. What does this data say?
For the week ending August 8, the U.S. ADP employment weekly change was 11,750, up from the previous 9,500. Against the backdrop of July's data being "halved" to 44,000 (expected 75,000), the slight weekly rebound at least indicates that the job market has not further deteriorated.
3. Impact logic on the crypto market
ADP data itself does not directly affect cryptocurrency prices but indirectly transmits through influencing Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations:
data weakens → job market cools → market expects Fed rate cuts/stops hikes → dollar weakens, liquidity expectations improve → benefits Bitcoin and other risk assets
After July's ADP data significantly missed expectations, the market lowered the probability of a rate hike in September, providing a bottom support for Bitcoin. But the key is: if weak employment data triggers recession fears, it would suppress risk assets—the market hopes to see a "moderate cooling," not a "cliff-like collapse."
4. Signal significance of this data
Weekly data rose from 9,500 to 11,750, a limited increase but at least indicating that the ultra-low 44,000 in July is not the start of a trend collapse. For the crypto market, as long as employment data does not trigger recession panic, marginal liquidity improvement provides medium-term support for core assets like Bitcoin. The more critical observation window remains the monthly nonfarm employment report—ADP weekly data is just noise; nonfarm is the core variable determining the Fed's next move.
$BTC
$ETH [The Second Spring of Perp DEX, the Real Ticket is US Compliance]
Trump publicly stated that the CFTC is assisting Hyperliquid to enter the US market legally and compliantly; the CFTC meeting records also show that Hyperliquid Labs has engaged with its Innovation Task Force.
This means Perp DEX is transitioning from internal crypto trading competition to entering the US financial system. The next phase will compete not only in trading volume but also in regulatory access, capital background, and institutional relationships.
$HYPE has already proven how big this track can be, and the market will naturally look for the next guy. $LIT is worth watching because Lighter is a US-based team supported by Founders Fund, Robinhood, Ribbit Capital, and Haun Ventures, truly possessing stronger US DNA.
But relationships can only open doors; they do not guarantee success. Ultimately, it depends on OI, real revenue, user retention after incentive withdrawal, token buybacks, and whether true US compliance qualifications can be obtained.
If you could only choose one, would you buy the proven $HYPE or bet on the lower-valued $LIT? Guys, the door to 80,000 has finally been kicked open. During the Asian session on August 25, BTC briefly climbed 2.5% to $80,908, marking its first return above $80,000 since May 15. At the time of writing, the price remained stable above $80,500. Over the past week, it has risen more than 20%, marking the second largest single-week gain since early 2021. Since August, the increase has exceeded 28%, potentially marking the largest single-month gain since November 2024. This round of rally is driven by three forces. First, the Ministry of Finance is disguised as liquidity injections. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent announced that the repurchase of long-term Treasury bonds would at least double, triggering a sell-off in the dollar and reigniting discussions about "depreciation trades." Under the same macroeconomic trading logic, Bitcoin has become the "high-beta version" of gold. Second, ETFs are aggressively accumulating shares. Last week, the combined net inflow of 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs was $1.92 billion, the largest single-week inflow since October last year. BlackRock IBIT saw about $1 billion in inflows in a single week. On August 20, the single-day net inflow reached $606 million, marking a new high in over three months. Short positions crushed—last week, about $7.2 billion in short positions across the market were liquidated. Third, regulatory expectations are warming. Trump met with crypto industry leaders at the White House, reigniting optimistic market expectations for the government's support for crypto. The CLARITY Act is expected to be reconsidered in mid-September. Can 80,000 yuan hold firm? Lao Mo gave a few key signals. Let's first look at the support. Chief Analyst at Bitget Research Institute#英伟达加码Perplexity，AI资本闭环再受审视
According to The Information, NVIDIA is negotiating to invest in Perplexity's new round of equity financing at a valuation exceeding $30 billion. The financing scale reaches several billion dollars, more than 50% higher than the approximately $20 billion valuation a year ago. The deal has not been finalized.
Why Perplexity? Annual revenue soared from less than $250 million at the beginning of the year to over $750 million, driven primarily by Perplexity Computer—an AI agent for professional users that automates computer tasks. Perplexity has announced it will use NVIDIA Vera CPUs to handle business workloads. The two companies are deeply integrated in their operations.
The bigger play: NVIDIA's equity investments in 2026 have exceeded $40 billion, covering OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Poolside, and others. Along with leveraging a $500 billion compute financing platform with the six Wall Street giants, NVIDIA is transforming from a chip supplier into an "organizer of the entire AI capital cycle."
The $30 billion is an "entry ticket," not a "guaranteed return." Perplexity's IPO target in 2028 provides NVIDIA with a clear exit timeline. Whether this investment will break even depends not on whether Perplexity can beat Google, but on how much compute demand the inference layer can generate. Jensen Huang is betting on the latter.Recently, some friends have been asking whether ZEC can be expected to be driven up by major players with good intentions. I specifically checked on-chain and exchange data, and the conclusion might be chilling to many: this level is more like a carefully arranged upward trap rather than the starting point of a new market cycle. Let's first look at a set of key figures. Currently, the total number of buy orders hanging on the market is as high as $194 million, while sell orders are only $27 million, resulting in a buy-to-sell ratio of an astonishing 718%. At first glance, the buyer's momentum seems unstoppable, as if a breakout could happen at any moment. But a closer breakdown reveals that the average opening cost for large funds is around $653, and at current prices, their unrealized profit is close to $39 million. What does this mean? It means these big players are not here to dream about the future with you; they are here to consider how to exit gracefully. The core issue lies in liquidity. The seller only has a shallow $27 million order and can't absorb the huge floating gains held by the big players. When big money wants to cash out those $39 million profits, who will take over? The answer is realistic—it's the retail investors who see the flood of buy orders and can't help but rush in. Those seemingly solid $194 million buy orders are likely props used to maintain price stability and create the illusion of strong demand, aiming to reassure those who want to get in and then slowly sell at high levels. Once large orders start dumping, these buy orders are quickly broken down, and the price may experience a series of sharp drops. So at this level, the rational approach is not to follow emotionsTarget bro, get ready to go long
Last month I confirmed that around 58,000 was the bottom of this cycle, and there was a signal that many people might not have paid much attention to at the time: Strategy.
Looking at this from the operator's perspective is quite interesting.
When the bear market reaches that stage, what Strategy really needs to consider is no longer just whether BTC will rise or not, but:
Where exactly is the bottom?
How far is the company from its own lifeline?
If another extreme drop happens, can the capital structure hold up?
Since there is still some space before reaching the real lifeline, proactively exposing risks in advance is always better than being forced by the market to solve them on the last day.
So when Strategy broke the expectation of "only buying and not selling," and started adjusting BTC and USD reserves and optimizing its capital structure, I saw it as a very important signal.
I'm not saying Saylor publicly said "I want to test the BTC bottom."
He didn't.
This is my deduction from the decision-maker's perspective.
But the market eventually gave the answer.
The "only buy and not sell" rule was broken, BTC dropped to 58,000; then combined with bearish news like hardware wallet security issues that sufficiently hit market confidence, 60,000 was still ultimately defended.
This is a stress test.
And this was the basis for my judgment that 58,000 was the bottom, not a logic I added after the price recovered.
So now I'm actually more concerned about another thing:
If Strategy starts continuously buying again, could that be the bulls' "breaking the glass as a signal"? CORE’s “Six Soul Questions” Sound Convincing, But the Market Tells a Different Story $CORE Don’t let the community’s so-called “Six Soul Questions” confuse the concepts. At first glance, the six arguments seem logically complete. But when you compare them with current market conditions, much of the narrative looks more like carefully packaged reassurance than genuine evidence. Let’s break down the core arguments one by one. 1️⃣ Miners delegating computing power to Core nodes Miners are primarily$BTC Bitcoin surged to $81,200 today (a three-month high), then pulled back to fluctuate around $79,000. It has skyrocketed about 22-25% in the past week, with a cumulative increase of nearly 28% in August!
Core drivers: The U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion per session, easing yield pressure and weakening the dollar, igniting "de-dollarization/devaluation trades"; combined with short squeeze liquidations (billions of dollars) + continuous net inflows into spot ETFs.
Still far below the historical high of $126k, RSI is already overbought, so watch for short-term pullback risks, but macro liquidity and institutional inflows support bullish sentiment.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Sharing high-value content from Shushu! BTC climbed back above $80,000, briefly touching above $81,200 during the session. This figure is certainly exciting, since the market has just pulled back from over $60,000, the air force has been replenishing everything, and the missing funds have started chasing the price into the market. Reuters: This rebound is also backed by spot capital. Last week, the combined net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs was about $1.918 billion, marking the largest weekly inflow in nearly ten months. Short covering pushed the market, and ETFs also brought in traceable dollar buying. But above $80,000, the game's difficulty has changed. Those who bought at low prices made a profit, and the chips that were trapped earlier are nearing breakeven as well. Every time the price goes up, someone asks themselves whether to pocket part of it first. The most valuable observation now has shifted from whether a breakthrough can be made, to whether anyone will respond when the backlash is triggered. I will start by focusing on ETFs. It's easy to buy during a rise, but when BTC pulls back, institutional funds are still willing to keep net inflows—this signal carries weight. If the price immediately narrows as soon as the price moves sideways, ETF inflows may quickly shrink, and a lot of chasing stocks may be mixed in among these funds. Next, look at spot transactions. If BTC stabilizes around $80,000, spot trading continues to expand, $ETH, $SOL, $BNB, and $HYPE start to rotate, making capital divergence healthier. Conversely, spot volume gradually shrinks, while perpetual contract positions rapidly pile up, making the market more fragile again. The macro level also gave the market no breather. This week, July PCE and Q2 GDP revisions will be released[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The US has wielded the big stick to impose "economic isolation" on Iran, yet oil prices have fallen instead. Isn't this script even more surreal than Pharaoh's pyramids? More importantly, what does this mean for Bitcoin? Pharaoh directly says, with oil prices down, inflation pressure takes a breather, and Bitcoin can also catch its breath around 80,000, but don't expect the geopolitical risk premium to just disappear.
First, let's see why oil prices didn't rise but fell. Four factors simultaneously removed the "war premium": military de-escalation, shifting from "dropping bombs" to "dropping financial bombs," with no missiles flying, so panic subsided first; all positive news has been priced in, oil prices rose over 5% last week, so profit-taking happened before the announcement; the market doubts the sanctions' effectiveness, as China accounts for about 80%-90% of Iran's oil exports, and as long as China keeps buying, sanctions are just paper tigers; Iran holds the Hormuz Strait card, through which about one-fifth of global oil supply is choked, so the real supply disruption risk remains.
The impact on Bitcoin is twofold. In the short term, with oil prices down, inflation expectations cool, US Treasury yields decline, the dollar weakens, and Bitcoin can catch a breath around 80,000. But in the medium term, as long as the Hormuz Strait remains closed, the geopolitical risk premium won't disappear, and oil prices could rebound at any time. Pharaoh's still the same: good trades are made by waiting, the direction is clear, no rush to act. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $BTC broke through $80,000, but I actually feel the real dangerous moment is just beginning
$80,000 has finally been pierced
On August 25, BTC once broke through $80,000, reaching an intraday high near $81,000, marking a new high since May. In just a few days, BTC's cumulative increase has exceeded 20%, and this rise was not pulled up by a single big bullish candle. Behind it, there was a simultaneous return of ETF funds, a weakening dollar, a decline in long-term US Treasury yields, and large-scale short covering.
Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.92 billion, one of the strongest weeks in nearly 10 months. At the same time, the ETH spot ETF also recorded nearly $700 million in net inflows. This means this rally is not just contract funds crazily chasing prices; the spot side has indeed reappeared to support the market.
However, I think after breaking through $80,000, the market has entered a more difficult phase to judge.
Because the logic behind the previous rise was very clear.
First, BTC accumulated a large number of shorts at low levels, then ETF funds quickly returned, coupled with the US Treasury expanding its long-term bond repurchase program, causing long-term yields and the dollar to fall, giving risk assets some breathing room. Several factors stacked together ultimately pushed BTC into a typical accelerated rally.
The question is, can shorts be squeezed indefinitely?
Obviously not.
Short covering is one of the fastest forces driving price increases, but it is not a long-term buying force itself. After short covering ends, if BTC wants to continue rising, new funds must be willing to keep buying above $80,000.
This is what I consider the most critical point going forward.
Many people now see the break above $80,000 and immediately start discussing $90,000 and $100,000. But from a trading perspective, the real importance of a round number is never "whether it is momentarily broken," but whether the price can hold after the breakout.
If BTC can repeatedly oscillate around $80,000 afterward, even with short-term pullbacks, as long as ETF funds do not show obvious weakening and the price does not quickly fall back into the previous breakout zone, then this breakout has the chance to evolve from a short squeeze into a trend reversal.
Conversely, if $80,000 is just a momentary spike, followed by a slowdown in funds and a rapid increase in leveraged longs at high levels, then caution is needed.
Because the first half cleared the shorts.
The second half might be the chase-high players.
There are two macro events worth watching this week. The US July PCE data will be released on August 26, and the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting is scheduled for August 27-29. Inflation data and Fed policy signals will directly affect the dollar, US Treasury yields, and risk asset pricing.
So my personal view now is simple: BTC breaking through $80,000 is a positive signal, but we cannot declare a new bull market fully underway just because a round number was broken.
What really matters is not whether BTC can charge $80,000 again.
But who will buy if it pulls back next.
If ETF funds continue to flow in, high-level oscillation might actually be a good thing, because after a sharp rise, turnover is needed. The more thoroughly chips are exchanged, the further the subsequent trend can go.
But if after the breakout only sentiment and leverage push prices higher, then $80,000 could become the most crowded short-term position.
The price has already given a direction.
What we need to watch next is whether funds can solidify this direction.
$ETH $TRUMP
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 The current market valuation is actually quite exaggerated.
In the nearly 155 years of history, the average CAPE has been around 17 times, but now it has reached 41 times. Historically, the market has only surpassed 40 times twice, and now it is just 3 times away from the all-time high of 44 times.
The last time it was this absurd was at the end of 1999 during the internet bubble. At that time, a bunch of tech companies were valued sky-high, with prices long detached from fundamentals. After the bubble burst, many companies went bankrupt.
So at least one thing is clear at this point: the market is already very expensive, optimistic expectations are basically maxed out, and what we really need to be cautious about going forward is not whether it can still rise, but how harsh the valuation drop will be once expectations are disappointed. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
I don't think the 80,000 level will be easy to hold.
BTC just broke through 80,000, moving very strongly, rising from 64,000 in a week. ETFs saw nearly $2 billion inflow in a week, and shorts were liquidated by over $4 billion. This rally is driven by liquidity expectations from US Treasury repo operations, somewhat similar to the logic back in February.
But honestly, a fast surge doesn't guarantee stability. The 80,000 level is clearly overbought in the short term, with RSI soaring above 80, and market sentiment shifting from "fear" to "extreme greed." Moreover, a large part of this rally is due to forced buying from short liquidations, not solid spot demand.
If it can hold above 78,000 and consolidate for a while, that would be okay. But if ETF inflows stop, or if the Jackson Hole speech by Powell turns hawkish, it could crash back to 73,000 or even lower.
At this level, I dare not chase. I'll wait and see; having cash in hand feels safer than being stuck at the peak. $BTC On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Mutual Defense Pact in Mecca, establishing a trilateral collective defense mechanism. The pact mirrors NATO's Article V: an armed attack against one member shall be regarded as an attack against all three. It has been dubbed the "Islamic NATO" by outside observers. As more Islamic nations in the Middle East gradually join, the petrodollar system faces a major test. Should the U.S.–Israel alliance lose even a single war in the future, a new international order will begin to take shape. The rally in Bitcoin is, at its core, a hedge against this very risk.Tom Lee is no longer just bullish on $ETH; he is betting on a bigger story: if RWA, stablecoins, and AI agents are massively on-chain in the future, Ethereum could become the next-generation financial infrastructure and even have the chance to challenge $BTC's market cap status. 1. What is he betting on? Tom Lee's logic is clear: BTC = digital gold, ETH = future financial operating system. BTC is more about storing value, while ETH can support stablecoins, RWAs, DeFi, and future AI agents for on-chain transactions and settlements. 2. He is not bullish on empty talk. BitMine recently added 32,447 ETH, bringing its total holdings to about 5.8476 million ETH, accounting for about 4.8% of the total ETH supply. This shows that Tom Lee is betting not just on short-term token prices but on whether Ethereum can become the core entry point for financial on-chain in the future. 3. Can ETH really surpass BTC? BTC's strengths lie in its brand, scarcity, and positioning as "digital gold"; ETH's strengths lie in its applications, settlement, and financial infrastructure. In the future, will the market give "digital gold" a higher valuation or a higher valuation from the "global financial operating system"? 4. What is truly worth watching? If RWA, stablecoins, and AI agents are fully on-chain in the next decade, ETH's value logic may indeed be repriced. But the premise is that these activities will ultimately be built mainly on ET$HUMA currently forms a valuation gap between a $37.34M circulating market cap and a $215.40M FDV. The core contradiction lies in the potential dilution of chips caused by the low 17.3% circulation rate and the protocol's lack of a burn mechanism.
Market data shows that $HUMA's 24-hour trading volume reaches $5.51M. Compared to the $37.34M circulating market cap, the high turnover rate indicates that on-exchange funds are still dominated by short-term speculation. The current price is slightly up 0.33% near $0.02, but the high $215.40M FDV indicates the market has already priced in high valuation expectations.
In terms of driving factors, inflationary supply suppression outweighs interest and token demand. Without a buyback and burn mechanism in place, the 82.7% of tokens yet to be unlocked constitute the main source of event risk transmission, which could overwhelm marginal buying power upon subsequent releases.
There have been zero effective GitHub code commits in the past 90 days, reflecting a stagnation in technical iteration and weakening mid-to-long-term capital's willingness to build positions. Token incentives unsupported by protocol revenue data make it difficult to sustain high-risk appetite capital.
The conditions for an upward scenario trigger require the protocol to implement a clear token burn and revenue distribution mechanism, and for the 24-hour trading volume to break through higher levels to absorb existing chips. If such buying pressure coincides with new feature releases, the token may break out of low-level consolidation and approach the valuation center. However, if trading volume shrinks below the current level, this rebound logic fails.
The conditions for a downward scenario trigger are the start of undisclosed unlocking events or a decline in on-exchange risk appetite leading to liquidity drying up. When the $37.34M circulating supply faces new release sell-offs without protocol revenue to support it, the price will seek buying support downward, discounting valuation clearance pressure.
If the protocol announces a large-scale trading fee buyback and token burn, fundamentally changing the value capture path, the above bearish dilution risk logic will be broken.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on the dynamic changes of $HUMA's on-chain unlocking contracts and whether the 24-hour trading volume can maintain above $5.51M.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？BTC is approaching the 80,000 mark, ETH surges above 2,500, and the overall crypto Fear & Greed Index has soared to 81, indicating the market sentiment has entered an overheated zone. Over the past 24 hours, short positions across the network have been continuously liquidated, with leveraged longs clustering; any slight pullback in the market could trigger a chain liquidation, amplifying volatility.
$BTC is supported by long-term ETF funds, making extreme crashes less likely; $ETH lacks strong institutional base support, so during high-level sentiment retreats, spikes and pullbacks will be more intense. The biggest taboo now is chasing highs out of inertia—many blindly go long seeing continuous ETF inflows but overlook the risk of short-term sentiment exhaustion. Securing profits is far more important than gambling on the last leg of the rally.
Will the US stock market storage surge or decline tonight?#宇树上市后连续回落，估值如何定价？
The stock price movement of Yushu Technology after its IPO perfectly follows the hype pattern of hard technology.
On the first day, it surged to ¥1100, with a market cap soaring past ¥400 billion, reflecting a massive capital frenzy over embodied intelligence sentiment. Coupled with no price limits and a small float at the IPO stage, funds pushed the price sky-high.
The drop from ¥1100 to around ¥600 looks like a halving, but compared to the ¥150 issue price, it still tripled. This is not a crash but the market squeezing out the emotional bubble and reshaping the pricing anchor.
Core controversies
▶️ Performance is supported, but scenarios are narrow
Revenue was ¥1.1 billion and net profit ¥270 million in the first half, showing strong self-sustaining ability. However, the main buyers are currently research institutions and universities. Whether it can cross over to large-scale industrial and consumer-level applications remains to be verified.
▶️ Valuation is high, digestion depends on growth
Even based on the reduced market cap, the P/E ratio is still in the hundreds. The market prices in future imagination premium; if subsequent commercial order growth lags, digesting the high valuation will be a long process.
🤔 Future outlook
In the short term, the stock price will likely enter a consolidation and bottoming phase, waiting for sufficient turnover of floating shares and a return to rational sentiment.
Mid-term indicators to watch
One is whether it can secure large-scale industrial orders from automakers or logistics giants; the other is whether it can leverage extreme cost control to disrupt industry prices like DJI did, using scale effects to quickly offset the high valuation.
Squeezing out the first-day frenzy bubble is a good thing. It’s safer to wait until the valuation falls to a safe range and the commercialization pace becomes clear before making a move. Data from August shows that leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics saw a net outflow of $381 million, while those tracking SK Hynix experienced a net outflow of $601 million, totaling nearly $1 billion in outflows. This marks the first monthly net outflow for these products since their launch at the end of May, signaling a key shift in market sentiment.
There are three main reasons behind this:
First, the hype around AI chip stocks has cooled down. Previously, many Korean retail investors used 2x leveraged ETFs to go long on Samsung and SK Hynix, but now profit-taking funds are exiting en masse;
Second, after significant volatility in the Korean stock market in July, market risk appetite sharply contracted, making high-leverage products the first to be sold off, with the deleveraging process continuing;
Third, there is a clear migration of funds, as Korean individual investors increase their allocations to US stock ETFs like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, shifting capital from high-risk leveraged trading in Korean AI chip stocks to more stable overseas broad-based assets;
At the same time, Korean regulators have tightened rules on leveraged products by raising investment entry thresholds and requiring new investors to complete simulated trading, further suppressing the willingness of leveraged funds to enter the market.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 Many people are now extremely conflicted: $ETH rose from 1900 all the way to 2470, a 30% surge in a single month. Watching trend reversals makes you afraid to miss out; seeing RSI overbought makes you afraid to buy in. To sum up current ETH in one sentence: the trend has completely turned bullish, but short-term trading is absolutely not suitable for blindly chasing highs. 1. Why has ETH been able to keep strengthening this wave? (Three core logics) 1. ETF crazy net inflows, institutions lock in circulating shares. Last week, spot ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $697 million, setting the strongest weekly record of 2026. On August 24, another net inflow of $116 million was made, marking several consecutive days of positive inflows. BlackRock led the way in heavy holdings, with total net inflows of ETH ETFs across the network surpassing $12 billion. More importantly: Fidelity is promoting full ETH pledge + quarterly dividends. Institutions no longer treat ETH as a speculative coin, but as a spot asset that can generate interest. Buy but not sell, lock up positions long-term, and market circulating assets are directly depleted. 2. Whales continue to hoard, supply shrinks completely. Last week, BitMine increased its holdings by 32,400 ETH (about $81 million), bringing total holdings to 5.85 million ETH, accounting for 4.8% of the total supply. 87% have been staked and locked, completely withdrawn from circulation. Combined with a 30% staking rate across the network and a continuous decline in exchange balances, ETH now: demand explodes, supply is exhausted. This is the underlying logic behind its growing strength. 3. Technicals have completely reversed, establishing a mid-term bullish trend. ETH has already: ✅ breaking through the one-year downtrend ✅ line with increased volume, holding firm at the MA20/MA50 double moving averageIt is true that Trump holds SpaceX shares, but the story has been misrepresented.
The financial disclosure clearly states: amount between $15,001–50,000, with the stock price over 150 at the time of the transaction, eleven days after the IPO. The document was only made public this week, and SPCX is now at 135—he is stuck with it, not buying at a low point.
More importantly, the White House responded: the portfolio is managed by a third-party institution, replicating indexes like Schwab 1000. If true, this is not his personal decision but passive holding.
SPCX has dropped 40% from its 52-week high of 226 to 135.
The takeaway for the crypto community: don’t treat celebrity holdings as signals. $50,000 is pocket change for him; position size does not indicate confidence. What really matters is that SpaceX is a major government contractor—that’s a conflict of interest issue, not a trading signal. $BTC brothers, BTC really broke through 80,000, reaching a high of 81,257. A few weeks ago it was still hovering around 64,000, and it has risen more than 20,000 points in two weeks.
The core reasons for this wave are: the US Treasury announced an increase in long-term bond repurchases, the dollar weakened, and the market resumed trading "fiat depreciation"; ETF funds continued to flow back, with a net inflow of 1.92 billion last week; short positions piled up too heavily, so when the price pulled up, it triggered a chain of liquidations; Trump came out again urging the Senate to quickly pass the CLARITY Act, instantly turning regulatory expectations optimistic.
Now the Fear and Greed Index has hit 83, the sentiment is overheated. This sharp rise is mainly due to short covering, not a large influx of new buying. The first resistance above is 83,000; if it breaks, look at 85,000-90,000. Next, watch Thursday's PCE and Friday's Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting speech by Waller.
80,000 has been crossed, but don't get too excited and go all in. Let's see if it can hold first. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 @OKX星球 Fundamental Research Report $HUMA / Huma Finance (RWA) $0.02 (24h +0.33%)
Core Judgment: Huma Finance ($HUMA) comprehensive score 21/100, rating mainly relies on narrative. Breaking down into three layers, the company team has tight resources, protocol network usage evidence is weak, and token value transmission still needs observation.
Fundamental Breakdown: Huma Finance (token $HUMA), RWA sector. Focuses on accounts receivable financing, PayFi RWA credit. Benchmarked against CFG, ONDO. Traditional SME accounts receivable financing goes through bank factoring, approval takes 30-90 days, interest 12%-24%, funds arrive slowly. On-chain asset confirmation is transparent, LP fund pools disburse loans in seconds, RWA assets can be traded secondarily to improve liquidity. Customer unit price $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: main evidence from announcements, no verifiable usage yet. Latest version not found, 0 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
User side, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $5.51M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income not disclosed, token holder buyback and burn annualized has no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 0 valid submissions in 90 days, active contributors not found, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK access evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 10,000,000,000.0, circulating 1,733,333,333.0 (17.3%), FDV $215.40M, next unlock not disclosed (percentage of circulation not disclosed), no clear buyback and burn annualized. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Huma Finance $37.34M, CFG undisclosed, ONDO undisclosed. FDV: Huma Finance $215.40M, CFG undisclosed, ONDO undisclosed. Annual revenue: Huma Finance undisclosed, CFG undisclosed, ONDO undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Huma Finance undisclosed, CFG undisclosed, ONDO undisclosed. Numbers based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $37.34M, FDV $215.40M, P/S N/A (revenue missing, valuation anchor invalid), FDV divided by revenue N/A. Pessimistic view $37.34M at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV corresponding P/S aligns with top players. Overall: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 21/100). Token value transmission path unclear, only governance incentives. Circulating market cap relatively reasonable or low compared to fundamentals, FDV high, circulation dilution risk high, beware of dump. Main risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Information source public, logic self-developed, does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviation over 30% requires re-evaluation.
That's all for now, share your thoughts in the comments.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 25)
Long positions collapsed sharply from an extreme 60x leverage, while shorts took over moderately at 2.9x. The 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeded $350 million, with a concentration of 68.6%...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $8.6637M $8.5218M $141.8K
4 hours $24.1815M $22.8112M $1.3703M
12 hours $240M $49.2506M $190M
24 hours $350M $89.7153M $260M
In 1 hour, longs were crushed at an extreme 60x leverage, amounting to $8.52M; in 4 hours, longs rose to 16.6x with $22.81M; in 12 hours, shorts reversed at 3.86x, surging to $190M; in 24 hours, short leverage dropped to 2.9x, liquidations at $260M versus longs at $90M, totaling $350M. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for 68.6% of the 24-hour total, with shorts completing most of the harvesting within 12 hours. Long leverage plummeted from an extreme 60x to a moderate 2.9x short takeover, with short squeeze momentum collapsing sharply and the long-short gap rapidly returning to equilibrium. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; although the direction has turned bearish, the intensity is limited, so avoid blindly chasing shorts.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 25
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin breaks through $80,000 fueled by "devaluation trades," the US shifts from military strikes to economic isolation against Iran, and the world's largest Bitcoin holding company remains inactive amid the surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Devaluation Trades Rekindled, $7.2 Billion Shorts Vaporized
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. Previously, Bitcoin had consecutively broken through $70,000 and $75,000 levels, rising 23% over the past 7 trading days, marking the largest weekly gain in about three years.
The core catalyst for this rally comes from macro factors. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond repurchases to suppress long-end yields, triggering a dollar sell-off and reigniting "devaluation trades." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond repurchase plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows about $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week.
However, analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen.
🚢 US Initiates Economic Isolation on Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Blockades
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, the US announced multiple new economic sanctions against Iran, expanding sanctions to five sectors including aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, targeting nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels. Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the process."
After sanctions took effect, international oil prices fell instead of rising—Brent crude dropped 2.4% to $92.17/barrel. This is because the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing fears.
🏦 Strategy Raises $2 Billion but Remains Inactive: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Allocation Pace in Focus
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average cost of about $75,385 each. During the same period, the company raised about $2.01 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company’s USD reserves reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trades" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze-driven nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to economic isolation on Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news already priced in"; Strategy pauses buying Bitcoin near $80,000, hoarding $6.7 billion in cash, making its allocation pace intriguing. BTC contract longs collapsed from 60x to a moderate 2.9x short takeover, with cumulative liquidations of $350 million, and short squeeze momentum completely faded. When devaluation trades, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can hold depends on whether spot buying can take over short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Long and Short Crowding Index
Crowding is not about being bullish or bearish, the key is which side has higher costs and the price still can't move.
$NES current rate -0.0926%, settled -0.639% in the past 24 hours, at the 2nd percentile of recent samples. The 15-minute decline is accompanied by a contraction in risk exposure; first observe the speed of position reduction, do not interpret it as new short positions. When OI continues to fall, the clearest sign is leverage is retreating; which side is exiting still needs confirmation from price and account details.
$BTC current rate +0.0100%, settled +0.027% in the past 24 hours, at the 100th percentile of recent samples. When the price falls, OI increases simultaneously; this period is not a simple deleveraging, the position ownership still requires trade verification. The long side has high costs and positions are still expanding, the trend can continue, but every time the price struggles to rise, it is easier to trigger position reduction.
$ETH current rate +0.0100%, settled +0.030% in the past 24 hours, at the 100th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions fall synchronously; treat this period as a deleveraging decline. No matter how extreme the rate is, when OI contracts, the most certain thing is deleveraging; which side is exiting cannot be concluded based on this data alone.Bitcoin is like this, I'll be straightforward, and it happens to be related to the previous question.
The U.S. economy needs to initiate a triple high pressure mechanism to squeeze out the bubbles. If it were a responsible government, QE should be conducted only after the triple high pressure mechanism starts.
What Bitcoin is trading on now is the possibility that the government might do QE before the triple high pressure mechanism kicks in. So Bitcoin is running ahead.
If Powell backs down next, it will confirm Bitcoin's front-running logic.
However, this early QE still cannot prevent the future start of the triple high pressure mechanism; it can only delay it, not cancel it.
Therefore, after this round of Bitcoin's rebound, with the emergence of the triple high pressure mechanism, there will be another sharp drop.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, with Nvidia's earnings finally released, where exactly is this AI drama headed?
Pharaoh says directly, Wall Street was more eager for this earnings report than waiting for Pharaoh's pyramid gates to open. Revenue hit $92 billion, EPS $2.09, a year-over-year surge of 96%, and data center revenue of $85.4 billion more than doubled.
The market had already bowed down in advance. The stock price had seven consecutive declines before the earnings, marking the longest losing streak since 2022. The options market expects a post-earnings volatility of 5.4%, meaning nearly $300 billion in market value needs to be repriced. Earnings have beaten expectations for 14 consecutive quarters, but the stock price fell the day after the last four earnings reports.
The AI return validation period has arrived. Strong growth in Microsoft, Amazon, and Google Cloud businesses has eased some concerns, but the market no longer buys "pie in the sky" promises. Jensen Huang declared on the call "compute equals revenue," the data is solid, but the market demands sustained accelerated growth that surpasses the most aggressive forecasts.
The "circular financing" sword hangs overhead. Nvidia is selling chips while simultaneously providing financing, guarantees, and conducting $500 billion GPU securitization. Goldman Sachs bluntly states that for the stock price to rise further, market concerns about circular financing must be alleviated.
Pharaoh's view? The AI infrastructure narrative is not over, but it has shifted from the "pie-in-the-sky" phase to the "accounting mode." With earnings released and the market having digested the direction, acting now is a hundred times more reliable than betting on direction. $BTC $ETH $SOL #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $BTC Bitcoin has once again broken through $80,000, with market sentiment clearly heating up. The rise is driven not only by short-term capital but also significantly catalyzed by the US macro environment.
Recently, the weakening of the US dollar combined with the US Treasury's expansion of Treasury buybacks has led the market to reprice the logic of declining liquidity and dollar purchasing power. At the same time, improved expectations for US crypto regulatory policies have further boosted market risk appetite. After breaking through $80,000, Bitcoin has reached a new high in several months.
However, it is important to note that after consecutive short-term gains, the market has entered a critical window. This week, the US PCE inflation data and the Jackson Hole meeting will be the focus. If inflation data comes in below expectations and the dollar continues to weaken, Bitcoin is expected to further challenge $81,000–$82,000, with stronger resistance above at $85,000.
But if inflation exceeds expectations or the Federal Reserve signals a tighter stance, short-term capital may choose to take profits and exit. On the downside, the first key level to watch is whether $80,000 can hold; if it breaks, a retest near $78,000 is possible, with stronger support around $75,000–$76,000.
At present, the medium-term bullish logic for Bitcoin remains intact, but the short-term is already at a high level. The real factors that will determine BTC's direction next may not be technical patterns but US inflation data and policy signals released by the Federal Reserve.This round of gold price strengthening appears to be driven by risk aversion on the surface, but fundamentally it's all about monetary logic.
Three converging forces are pushing gold upward:
Fed rate cut expectations heating up + weakening US dollar
Global central banks continuously buying gold as a floor
Geopolitical risk aversion + loosening US dollar credit system
Applied to the crypto market, $BTC and gold share the same macro script:
Rate cut expectations lower the holding cost of interest-free assets, so capital flows not only to gold but also to scarce non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin.
This is also an important macro backdrop for the recent strength in crypto.
But it's important to distinguish—gold and crypto are not the same species.
$XAU has continuous central bank buying support globally, serving as a risk-averse ballast; Bitcoin and $ETH are more elastic risk assets, also benefiting from loose liquidity but with volatility far greater than gold.
If inflation rebounds or rate cut expectations are delayed and liquidity tightens, Bitcoin's pullbacks tend to be much more severe than gold's.
In the short term:
Gold has shown technical overbought signals and faces risk of profit-taking and pullback.
Mapping this to crypto—
Even if the macro direction is friendly, it doesn't mean blind one-way rallies; high levels still require caution for retracements and shakeouts.
From a long-term perspective:
If the rate cut cycle truly materializes, combined with ongoing US dollar credit concerns, the gold price base is expected to continue rising, providing a relatively favorable environment for crypto.
But markets never move in a straight line; there will definitely be repeated fluctuations.
The conclusion is simple:
A bullish macro direction does not mean you can blindly charge.
Clear logic, disciplined position sizing, and pacing are more important than direction.
Only by seeing the big picture clearly and enduring volatility can one truly seize the opportunities this era offers.
#黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 As of August 25, 20:15 $SPCX 1 Open interest and long short position data Total open interest: approximately 44.2 million to 49.06 million SPCX (based on recent highs on the 4-hour open interest chart, nominal value approximately 31.34 million to 35.9 million USD) Total long interest: approximately 28.28 million to 31.4 million SPCX (approximately 64.0%) Total short interest: approximately 15.92 million to 17.66 million SPCX (approximately 36.0%) Basis for Audit and Judgment: According to the chart of the "Contract Long-Short Account Ratio," the long-short account ratio (long-short ratio) currently remains between 1.78 and 1.85, meaning the number of long accounts is significantly higher than short, structurally showing a clear phenomenon of retail investors clustering long positions. ------------------------------ 2. Chip Distribution, Retail Investor Positions, and Behavioral Ranges Combining the daily chart (K-line) with volume and price fluctuation ranges, Chip density can be divided into the following three core ranges: 1. Three major chip distribution ranges Interval A (low-level bottoming and initial rally zone): 108.00 - 128.00 USDT share: about 20% Retail investor behavior: This range marks the initial point of volume breakout and rally, mainly the early accumulation zone and strong support defense line of main funds. Interval B (main force turnover and retail investor concentration entry zone): 128$BTC has risen again, and I guess many people are already getting hyped and starting to FOMO. Don't rush, let me pour some cold water to calm things down.
First, let's look at the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index. During this rebound, the premium did briefly turn positive, but it quickly shrank back to negative, indicating that selling pressure in the US has been significant. Whether this wave can go far depends on whether the premium can truly turn positive and hold steady. Only if the premium remains positive for a long time does it indicate that US funds are genuinely chasing the rally with real money, and only then can the bull market be considered truly here.
So don't jump to conclusions now. I think the real decisive moment for the big picture will be mid-September, and there are two things to watch closely.
First, the procedural vote on the Clarity Act on September 15. The Senate reconvenes on September 14, and the vote is scheduled for 2:15 PM the next day. This rally is largely driven by the expectation that "the bill will pass" in advance. If this step doesn't proceed smoothly on September 15, the pressure to give back gains after the good news will come very directly.
Second, the FOMC meeting on September 15-16. There is currently significant disagreement in the market about whether there is room for further rate cuts in the second half of the year. This time, the real driver is the macro side: the Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, long-term rates falling, and the dollar weakening. Bitcoin's recent rise seems more like it is being lifted by this liquidity-driven rally alongside stocks, bonds, and gold, rather than strengthening on its own. $XRP 9/1 escrow 105th monthly release in 8 years, is it a bottom-buying opportunity?
On December 8, 2017, Ripple locked 55B XRP into XRPL time-locked contracts, 55 contracts of 1B each expiring on the 1st of every month starting January 1, 2018. Ripple's official statement: "We use Escrow to establish 55 contracts of 1 billion XRP each that will expire on the first day of every month from months 0 to 54." By September 1, 2026, after 8 years and 8 months, the 105th monthly release will occur—not starting in 2026.
The key is how Ripple handles it: unused portions at expiration are re-locked to the end of the queue within the same month. Historically, 60-80% are immediately re-locked, resulting in a net circulation of only 200-400 million per month. Currently, at $1.5024, net inflow is $300-600M, used for ODL + institutional cooperation + ecosystem development, not dumping on the secondary market. This is highly priced in, transparent, and predictable.
#XRP #Altcoins #UnlockCalendar
This is not investment advice, NFAHas the $BTC Bitcoin pullback started?
It's not that the pullback has started; it's the first "hand-off pullback" after a short squeeze peak — on August 25, BTC broke 80,000 intraday (high 80,970) then retraced to the 77,600–79,300 range. This move has been done by the main players more than once: pumping it up to exhaust shorts, whales unloading, retail chasing highs and catching the falling knife, then a sharp dip to shake out profit-taking.
Breaking down the K-line from 8/19 to 8/25:
Rally from 62,800 → touched 79.8K on 8/24 → broke 80K (80,970) in Asian session on 8/25 → retraced to 79,278 in European session → currently oscillating between 77,600–79,300
The drivers are threefold: Treasury Secretary bond repurchase doubling pressuring long-term rates + spot BTC ETF absorbing $1.92 billion in a single week + short liquidation over three days exceeding $4 billion from the residual short squeeze effect
The reason for the retracement is straightforward: RSI daily at 78–82 overbought, above 80K is a dense 112-day transaction selling pressure zone, whales have sell walls at 79–80K, and institutions are not chasing shadows ahead of 8/26 PCE + Warsh Jackson Hole debut
So, "has the pullback started?" The answer is twofold:
Microscopic (1–3 days): Yes, a pullback. From 80.9K down to 77.6K, about -4%, which is profit-taking after the short squeeze and is healthy.
Structural (weekly level): Not a reversal pullback, but a high-level hand-off zone between 74–80K. Bitget expects the near-term range to be 74–81K. Ryan Lee’s exact words: "pullback toward 75,000–76,000 would be consistent with profit-taking"; only if the weekly close breaks below 74K will it downgrade from a "shakeout" to an "extended bear tail."
Three-tier judgment (actionable):
If the 77K mid-axis holds: sideways 74–80K lever washout, wait for 8/26 PCE, then build momentum for a second push to 80K
Retrace to 75–76K: standard shallow pullback after short squeeze; if ETF inflows continue, this is a golden pit
Weekly close below 74K: bulls lose critical support, retest 68–70K to regroup, previous moves count as B-wave rebound
Breaking 80K but not holding 80K = bulls testing resistance; retracing to 77K but not breaking 74K = bears have not regained control.
Right now, it’s neither "fierce attack continuing" nor "bull market dead," but a necessary breather after a sharp rise. $BTC $BTC $80K, $ETH $2.5K: Bull Trap or Retest?
$BTC and $ETH broke higher but quickly faced profit-taking after $BTC moved above $80K and $ETH approached $2.5K. ETF flows remain a bright spot: Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $338M and Ethereum ETFs added $116M on August 24 However sentiment has entered extreme greed territory, while liquidity and inflation remain risks If $BTC holds $79K–$80K and $ETH stays around $2.45K–$2.5K, #BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls #StrategyBuildsCash $OKB is currently around $113.9, up about 35% from around $84 in the past month. It touched $120 again intraday today but was quickly sold back, indicating significant locked positions and profit-taking at this level.
This rally currently lacks new major OKB announcements and seems more like capital re-trading its scarcity after the overall market warmed up. OKB previously burned 65,256,712 tokens in one go, and the smart contract has removed the minting and manual burning functions, fixing the total supply at 21 million tokens. At the current price, the valuation corresponds to about $2.39 billion.
OKB no longer relies on quarterly buyback and burn to create expectations; future valuation depends on whether X Layer can bring real demand. OKB is the Gas token for X Layer, and after Exchange OS launches, developers deploying trading markets will need to stake OKB.
On the chart, $120 has formed resistance twice consecutively. After a volume-supported breakout, the next target is $124–$125, then around $130; if it fails to break through, look first at $109–$112, with strong support at $103–$107.
I will not chase near $114. This is too close to resistance, and the risk-reward ratio is average. I will wait for a pullback to stabilize near $110 or a confirmed breakout above $120, which would be a much more comfortable position.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 This time, the Thai SEC is not directly issuing licenses,
but first releasing the regulatory framework for crypto ETFs for public consultation.
- First, the signal: it indicates a regulatory attitude moving towards openness, at least not a blanket rejection.
- Current focus: initially, the targets are limited to Bitcoin and Ethereum, meaning they are testing the waters with the most mainstream assets that are easiest for traditional funds to accept.
- Impact on the market: such news usually first affects sentiment, allowing the outside world to see that the compliance gateway is widening.
- But don't get ahead of yourself: it is still in the consultation stage, and there is a distance from final approval, detailed rules implementation, and actual trading.
In short, this is more like paving the way, not opening the floodgates immediately.
The key later on is still how the rules are set and whether funds will really enter the market. 📊 $OKB Contract Liquidation Express (August 25)
The direction shifted from long dominance to short takeover, but the total amount was only $70,000, indicating a low-liquidity, ineffective market...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $4,399.01 $4,399.01 $0
4 hours $21,400 $21,400 $0
12 hours $61,400 $22,800 $38,600
24 hours $70,400 $29,000 $41,400
From 1 to 4 hours, longs dominated but the scale was only $4,400 to $21,400; at 12 hours, shorts took over at 1.69 times, surging to $38,600; at 24 hours, shorts slightly expanded to 1.43 times, liquidating $41,400 against longs' $29,000, totaling $70,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounted for 87.2% of the 24-hour total, showing high concentration, but the total daily volume was only $70,000, indicating a low-liquidity ineffective market with no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; this coin has poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 25
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Bitcoin breaks through $80,000 driven by "devaluation trades," the US shifts from military strikes to economic isolation against Iran, while the world's largest Bitcoin holding company remains inactive amid the surge.
₿ BTC Breaks $80,000: Devaluation Trades Rekindled, $7.2 Billion Shorts Vaporized
During the Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin surged 2.5% to $80,908, surpassing $80,000 for the first time since May 15. Previously, Bitcoin had consecutively broken through $70,000 and $75,000 levels, rising 23% over the past 7 trading days, marking the largest weekly gain in about three years.
The core catalyst for this rally comes from macro factors. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increased long-term bond repurchases to suppress long-end yields, triggering a sell-off in the US dollar and reigniting "devaluation trades." Bitget Wallet research analysts noted that the Treasury's expanded long bond repurchase plan will weaken the dollar and revive the "devaluation trade" between Bitcoin and gold.
Institutional funds are returning simultaneously—last week, 13 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net inflow of $1.92 billion, the largest weekly inflow since early October last year. Shorts suffered a devastating blow; Coinglass data shows about $7.2 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated last week.
However, analysts point out that this rally is mainly driven by short squeezes, and whether demand-side support can sustain remains to be seen.
🚢 US Launches Economic Isolation Against Iran: From Military Strikes to Financial Blockades
In the early hours of August 25 Beijing time, the US announced multiple economic sanctions against Iran, expanding sanctions to five sectors including aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology, targeting nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels.
Yellen stated the move aims to "cut off every economic lifeline of the Iranian government." Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi responded strongly, saying "relying on power and bullying will only complicate the related processes."
After sanctions were implemented, international oil prices fell instead of rising—Brent crude dropped 2.4% to $92.17 per barrel. The reason is that the market had already fully priced in geopolitical risks; the sanctions mark the end of the military action phase and a shift to economic restrictions, easing concerns.
🏦 Strategy Raises $2 Billion but Remains Inactive: $6.7 Billion Cash on Hand, Allocation Pace in Focus
The world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holding company, Strategy, disclosed that from August 17 to 23, it did not purchase Bitcoin, maintaining holdings at 840,447 BTC with an average cost of about $75,385 per coin.
During the same period, the company raised about $2.01 billion net by selling 18.26 million common shares. As of August 23, the company's USD reserve balance reached $5.1 billion, with an additional $1.59 billion in a "USD Cash" liquidity account. These funds can be used in the future to increase Bitcoin holdings, repay debt, buy back shares, or pay dividends.
Strategy chose to pause buying and hoard $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin approached $80,000—whether waiting for a pullback to re-enter or maintaining a wait-and-see stance at the current price will be an important reference for the market to judge Bitcoin's short-term trend.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin breaks $80,000 driven by "devaluation trades" and ETF funds, but the short squeeze-driven nature casts doubt on sustainability; the US shifts from military strikes to economic isolation against Iran, causing oil prices to fall due to "bad news fully priced in"; Strategy pauses buying and hoards $6.7 billion in cash as Bitcoin nears $80,000, making allocation pace intriguing. $OKB contract liquidations totaled only $70,000 for the day, indicating a low-liquidity ineffective market, sharply contrasting with the massive funds in the three main themes—capital is accelerating concentration into top assets. When devaluation trades, geopolitical games, and institutional strategies converge in the same time window—whether $80,000 can hold depends on whether spot buying can take over from short covering. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 💰 MSTR raised $2 billion, but BTC holdings remain unchanged
By selling $MSTR stock, the company raised about $2 billion, but the amount of $BTC holdings did not increase — currently still at 840,447 BTC, basically flat compared to June.
So, where did this cash go?
📌 The currently disclosed information shows that the funds were mainly used for:
* Repurchasing some preferred shares
* Increasing USD cash reserves
* Establishing a liquidity pool of about $1.6 billion
This fund is described as being used for future “optionality.”
⚠️ So, don’t simply interpret this as MSTR preparing to use this money to buy BTC at a discount.
It may be used for future BTC purchases, or to meet the company’s own funding needs or other obligations.
What’s more important here is to look at the company’s filed documents, rather than guessing based on market sentiment.$BTC This rebound is increasingly less like an ordinary emotional recovery. BTC is approaching $80,000, and many people's first reaction is "the short sellers have been squeezed out." That's certainly true, but just talking about squeezing doesn't explain the strength of this rally. A deeper change is that funds are beginning to retranslate US fiscal, debt, and liquidity arrangements into Bitcoin narratives. US debt buybacks, dollar pressure, fiscal deficits, and ongoing spot ETF inflows are pulling BTC back from a highly volatile speculative asset back to the position of a "macro hedge asset." This is why Strategy's latest move is worth a closer look. The company raised over $2 billion this time but did not immediately continue buying coins; instead, it first supplemented the dollar pool and capital structure. This shows that even the most aggressive corporate holders are admitting a reality: the market has returned, but capital management is more important than chasing prices. For the market, this isn't negative; rather, it signals maturity. Hot money is surging, veteran players are keeping watch on the table. On the other hand, Ethereum's institutionalization is also accelerating. BitMine pushed ETH holdings to nearly 5% of total supply, and a large amount of assets are already staked. ETH is no longer just a "public chain token"; it increasingly resembles a means of production that can be packaged by listed companies, increasing yields, and embedded in balance sheets. This change is more important than short-term price fluctuations. There's another signal that can't be ignored from Washington. Stand With Crypto endorsed 32 lawmakers, showing that the crypto industry has already turned to a regulatory warIf breaking 80,000 is just a pin, then the long-going ones are just fueling the bears. The real battlefield is never the price itself, but the way contracts accumulate positions. Have you noticed that in this round of rallying, everyone is focused on "can it break above 80,000?" but few ask: even if it does, who will take your long orders above 80,000? I've been watching the derivative structure these past two days, and the more I look, the more I feel the market is trading with a very subtle expectation—not about whether it will rise, but whether it can hold steady after the rise. Let's start with the bullish side. - The funding rate is indeed rising, and bulls in perpetual contracts are willing to pay premiums, which shows retail investor sentiment is warming up, and at least some people dare to chase. - In the options market, the implied volatility of call options hasn't surged dramatically, which means institutions aren't frantically hedgeing downside risk—they may feel there's no way to drop much. - Also, BTC's open interest is steadily increasing—not a sudden surge but a gradual accumulation. This rhythm is more like funds quietly building up rather than pure retail investors. But if you just look at these and rush in, I think you're missing a more important detail. The most honest signal in derivatives structure is actually the divergence between price and open interest. Right now, spot prices are rising, but the funding rate for perpetual contracts hasn't surged above 30% annualized as before. What does this indicate? It means this rally wasn't driven up by leveraged funds, but by spot buying that gradually picked it up.ETH finally gave the shorts some breathing room today!
$ETH
Yesterday I opened a short at 2491. The market didn’t drop immediately; instead, it first rallied to around 2531, clearing out the shorts above 2500, then quickly fell back to 2462. Now the price is oscillating around 2470.
This kind of movement is really classic: first kill the shorts, then kill the chasing longs.
From the price structure perspective, ETH previously peaked at 2545, and the last two rebounds were both suppressed near 2530, indicating that there is still significant selling pressure between 2500 and 2545. The bulls currently don’t have the strength to make a real breakout.
My core logic for shorting at 2491 hasn’t changed: ETH surged continuously from around 1900 to above 2500, with a short-term gain that’s too large. The price needs to digest profits through a pullback or sideways movement, not by continuously rising on short squeeze liquidations.
But this trade also exposed a problem — the entry timing was a bit early.
Yesterday I planned to set the stop loss at 2528, but ETH peaked near 2531. If I had strictly followed the plan, this trade would have been stopped out first, and only then would the market start to fall. Correct directional judgment doesn’t mean the trading process was correct; the area above resistance is naturally the easiest place to get liquidity hunted.
Key levels to watch today:
✔ 2490—2505: First resistance zone
✔ 2528—2545: Strong resistance and invalidation zone for shorts
✔ 2455—2465: Current first support
✔ A decisive break below 2455: look down to 2435—2420
✔ Further break below 2420: look down to 2390—2356
Currently, the price has fallen below the hourly EMA20 but is still supported near EMA50, so this round of decline can only be defined as a high-level pullback for now, not a trend reversal.
If 2460 holds, ETH may rebound again to test 2490—2500; but if the hourly candle breaks below 2455 with volume and the rebound fails to recover above it, the shorts will truly take control, and the probability of testing 2420 and 2380 will significantly increase.
If the 2491 short from yesterday is still open, I would take partial profit around 2460—2470 and move the stop loss for the remaining position up to around 2495, so as not to let the existing profit turn back into a loss.
I won’t chase shorts near the 2460 support today.
To short again, either wait for the price to rebound to 2490—2500 and get rejected again, or wait for a break below 2455 followed by a pullback confirmation. The closer the price is to support, the worse the risk-reward ratio for chasing shorts.
Although BTC is still strong near $80,000, ETH has clearly started to lag. As long as 2545 is not broken, this remains a high-level consolidation, not a place to blindly chase longs.
Shorts can be aggressive, but not stubborn.
If wrong, stop loss; if right, take profit; absolutely no averaging down.