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BTC surged then pulled back to 77000, a normal tug-of-war before options expiration
On Friday, Deribit has $6.4 billion BTC options expiring, with strike prices at 75000/80000 accumulating a large amount of bullish chips. Market makers' hedging will keep the price within this range, pushing down when it surges and buying on the pullback, a mechanical game before expiration.
The mid-term outlook remains bullish, but no additional positions are added at this stage. If 80000 cannot hold, consider it a shakeout; if 75000 is not broken, hold the base position.
Wait for Friday's position settlement and volatility to subside before the market shows a clear direction.
Short-term is prone to stop-losses from range sweeps; mid-term strategy: hold the base position firmly, follow up only after a solid breakout above 80000, and don't get shaken out by short-term noise.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
$ETH $BTC Here's the *latest Bitcoin $BTC Chinese flash news for the evening of 2026.08.27* 👇
*1. Price Overview*
- *Current Price: $78,650* 24H -1.8%
- *Intraday Low: $78,100* just tested
- *August Gain: +25.5%* still the *largest single-month gain since November 2024*
- *Market Cap: $1.561 trillion*
*2. Today's 3 Most Critical News*
#PCEToJacksonHole #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
Martingale: From the thrill of doubling to the nightmare of zeroing out, my practical review
Martingale was the most expensive lesson I've ever paid for. Simply put, it means doubling down on losses and running when you break even. It seems like a guaranteed win but is actually gambling with the market.
Last year, I used Martingale during BTC's sideways market, starting with a 100U position and doubling down on losses. In the first two weeks, my account grew from 1000U to 2800U. The thrill of recovering every loss was intoxicating. But on day 18, BTC suddenly plunged 8% in a single move, losing 6 trades in a row. The 7th time required adding 6400U — leading to immediate liquidation and zero balance. The 2800U profit plus 1000U principal vanished in one day.
Lessons learned from pitfalls
1. Sideways ≠ always sideways. Martingale only works in narrow ranges, but the market is sideways 80% of the time and trending 20%. That 20% trend can wipe you out. You never know when sideways ends.
2. Capital is limited, losses are unlimited. Losing 7 times in a row means 64x position size; 10 times means 512x. No matter how big your capital, exponential doubling is paper-thin.
3. Leverage is both an accelerator and a meat grinder. Martingale + high leverage = suicide. I used 10x; maybe 3x leverage could have survived that wave.
4. Stop profit and stop loss were set incorrectly. Martingale should have a "maximum drawdown stop loss" (e.g., force liquidation if total capital drops 20%) instead of stop loss per trade. I didn’t set a total stop loss, which was a fatal mistake.
The secret to survival isn’t how much you win, but not going zero in one shot @OKX成长学院 BTC has been moving sideways below 79k all morning, holding quite steadily.
The funding rate is still negative, with no one adding leverage to chase; this wave is driven by spot and ETFs buying. Although the long-short ratio shows bulls at 64%, contract positions have actually dropped by 11%, indicating it's not being pumped up by borrowed money. This kind of movement is more solid and reliable than a volume-driven pump.
The morning pullback hit around 78.4, liquidating over 50 million long positions and shaking out the weak holders. Now it’s back up to 78.8, showing strong signs of building momentum. The 80k level is a key threshold; breaking through it will accelerate the move.
ETH is stronger than BTC today.
Short positions liquidated over 64 million, the worst hit in the market, yet bears stubbornly keep adding. Position data shows 80% are long, but the funding rate hasn’t risen, indicating it’s not retail FOMO but bears actively buying to close shorts.
Once BTC stabilizes above 80k, ETH’s catch-up rally will be fierce. The first target is 2550, the second 2650—don’t get left behind.
The biggest variable for SOL today is the inflation vote.
It’s pulled from 95 to 101, with the monthly chart up nearly 40%, bullish sentiment is strongest, and 84% of margin market positions are long. But a detail: retail long-short ratio is 2.35, yet the funding rate has been negative, showing these holders are accumulating spot, not opening contracts to speculate. Selling pressure is really light.
Those holding at low levels shouldn’t move recklessly; those wanting to enter should wait for BTC to pull back near 78k to buy in. Until leverage builds up, the trend isn’t over. The real time to run is when retail starts borrowing to chase longs and funding rates skyrocket—far from that now.Damn! $HYPE now looks like a market torn in two. On one side, people are rushing to withdraw coins from staking, with about 950,000 tokens unstaked in 24 hours, worth over eighty million on the books.
On the other side, address 0x6436 has been continuously buying on multiple exchanges in recent days, accumulating over 380,000 tokens, with a market value just over thirty million. Bears think selling pressure is coming, bulls think someone is grabbing chips at the floor price, and both sides believe they are right.
It's wrong to treat it as a shitcoin. HYPE is the token of Hyperliquid, a public chain dedicated to on-chain perpetuals and spot trading, with a cap of one billion tokens and no VC allocation. The token is used for staking to secure the network, for fee discounts, and new markets require locking tokens.
Protocol fees consistently rank among the top public chains, and the Aid Fund uses revenue to buy back and burn tokens, effectively unlocking on one side while reclaiming circulation on the other.
The real pressure isn't sentiment, it's the calendar. On August 29, another batch of about 14.18 million tokens will unlock, worth roughly 1.2 billion USD at current prices, close to 1.4% of total supply and 2.7% of market cap, with internal contributors holding nearly half.
Unlocking doesn't mean immediate dumping, but floating supply will increase. Buybacks can absorb some, but the leftover will battle in the order book.
So this pullback shouldn't be mythologized or cause panic. Unstaking means supply loosening, and whales adding positions means someone is betting real money that fees and buybacks can still outweigh unlocking.
This move is 666!
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 短短五个交易日，美国现货比特币ETF的净流入就超过了二十亿美元，这组数据最近在圈内讨论度不低。单看数字，它确实是近十个月以来最密集的机构吸筹窗口之一，但如果只停留在“华尔街在买”这个层面，反而容易错过更值得琢磨的细节。 我真正关注的不是某一天的爆发，而是节奏的稳定性。要知道，比特币此前刚从阶段性低点回升，价格已经明显抬高，机构资金却没有停下来等更深的折扣，而是继续按部就班地进场。这种“越涨越买”的连续性，比一次性的天量流入更能说明问题——它暗示一部分资金不是在赌短期方向，而是在做跨周期的结构性配置。 当然，看到机构持续买入，很多人会下意识觉得“大资金一定知道些什么”。这个猜想并非没有道理，但我们需要保持一点克制。大型基金建仓的周期往往以月甚至年为单位，它们对短期波动的容忍度远比散户高得多。因此，这波ETF流入更适合被理解为长期需求的信号，而不是比特币马上要继续拉升的保证。区分这两者，对判断后市节奏至关重要。 接下来更值得观察的，其实是比特币进入盘整阶段后ETF资金的表现。如果价格在高位横盘甚至出现正常回调，而现货ETF依然保持可观的净流入，那就说明机构愿意在弱势中慢慢吸筹，这比只在突破"NVIDIA's Single Quarter Hits $96.2 Billion: Major Companies Still Scrambling for Chips, Enterprise Software Has Started to Bring in Real Money"
With a single quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, NVIDIA's latest financial report shatters market concerns about AI investment peaking.
Looking into the details, it becomes clear that the new growth engine is no longer just the few well-known leading cloud giants.
Enterprise clients and AI teams contributed over $40 billion, doubling year-over-year and fully surpassing traditional cloud giants.
Computing power is no longer a training toy for a few big companies, but enterprises directly integrate it into their business, earning software subscription fees by consuming Tokens.
The full-stack software and hardware moat keeps gross margins steady at an ultra-high level of 75%. Next quarter's guidance points to a hundred billion, and order schedules are continuously extended through the year after next. $BTC As of August 27, 2026, the mainstream coin market, after a strong rebound last week, has entered a phase of high-level consolidation and divergence. Bitcoin briefly broke above $80,000 but then retreated below $79,000, with the market shifting from liquidity-driven to macro policy expectation-driven.
Market trend: Surge and pullback, technical resistance emerges
· Overall status: Bitcoin $BTC is currently around $78,700, slightly down intraday, failing to hold above the $80,000 mark. Last week's sharp rise narrowed the seven-day gain from 23% to about 14%.
· Key resistance: The market is closely watching the $83,000 level (near the 365-day moving average). Breaking through this area is crucial to confirm trend continuation.
Mainstream coin performance: $SOL strong, $XRP pulls back
· Solana ($SOL): Leading against the trend, up nearly 4% intraday, price back above $101.
· Ethereum ($ETH): Relatively firm, up about 1% intraday, fluctuating around $2490.
· $XRP: Leading the decline, down nearly 3% intraday, but still up about 28% for the week.
· $BNB and $DOGE: Stable performance, $BNB around $703, $DOGE steady at $0.09.
Long-short battle focus
· Support factors: The US Bitcoin spot $ETF has seen nearly $2 billion net inflow over the past 5 days, providing real buying support, with clear signs of institutional demand returning.
· Pressure factors: Market expectations for Fed rate hikes are heating up, US Treasury yields rising, suppressing risk assets; meanwhile, technical pressure and profit-taking exist above $80,000, and the decline in open interest also suggests part of this rally is driven by short covering.
Summary: The current market is at a stage of "strong fundamentals, but valuations and positions are becoming crowded." Bulls are trying to digest short-term profits and await new macro or regulatory catalysts (such as Fed Chair speeches) to confirm the next direction. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 很多人看到7月核心PCE 3.3%符合预期、二季度GDP维持1.5%，第一反应是松了一口气，觉得没有黑天鹅就是利好。但在我眼里，这份看似平静的数据，恰恰把美联储推进了最尴尬的滞胀夹缝里。
1.5%的实际GDP增速暴露出实体动能正在失速，而3.3%的核心PCE距离2%红线依然遥不可及。降息怕通胀二次抬头，紧缩怕实体信贷暴雷。市场利率定价之所以转向通胀黏性，是因为资本认清了现实：所谓的宽松大门根本没有真正打开#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Continuing from the previous text: BlackRock said that the real bigger catalyst for Bitcoin might not be the CLARITY Act, but the continuously deteriorating fiscal structure of the United States.
And this precisely connects with the long-term logic of BTCFi and Core.
BTC solves the problem of "value storage," while BTCFi addresses "how to generate financial value from BTC."
As more BTC is held long-term, capital will naturally further question:
Besides holding, can these BTC participate in Staking, lending, liquidity, and DeFi?
This is the meaning of BTCFi's existence.
What Core is betting on is to transform BTC from a "lying asset" into an asset that "can be used, generate income, and participate in on-chain finance."
So this logic can be simply understood as:
Fiscal pressure → Enhanced BTC value proposition → Expansion of BTC asset scale → Financialization of BTC → BTCFi → Infrastructure like Core benefits.
What truly deserves attention is not just how high BTC can rise.
But:
As more global capital begins to hold BTC, will BTC evolve from "digital gold" into the underlying asset of the entire on-chain financial system?
If the answer is yes, then BTCFi might be the next bigger space for BTC's imagination, and Core's value lies here.ZEC officially knocks on Wall Street's door!
This matter is more worth pondering than rising to $800.
I have always been following $ZEC and would bet on it, but today's news carries more weight than simply breaking the previous high.
Grayscale's Zcash ETF (ZCSH) is officially listed on NYSE Arca, the first ETF in the US that can directly allocate ZEC. Before its launch, ZEC has already surged from $600 to $867.
The first-day trading volume was $14.8 million, which is indeed not much compared to Bitcoin ETFs, but ZEC was previously a niche privacy coin — this scale is enough to prove the point.
Previously, buying ZEC was basically for insiders only. Now, traditional stock accounts can buy it with a click, and even before the ETF is launched, the fund size has already exceeded $313 million, indicating that capital has been lurking for a long time, not starting from zero.
I told my friends before that this market cycle might repackage $ZEC from a "privacy coin" into a "privacy version of Bitcoin."
Now even the entrance to Wall Street has been opened.
So the target remains unchanged, $ZEC continues to look at $1100, come on! Let's go!
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元 NVIDIA's earnings report is truly explosive:
Q2 revenue reached $96.2 billion, more than doubling year-over-year by 106%;
Wall Street expected about $92.2 billion, so it was left far behind.
Q3 guidance is $108 billion, with a 2% margin of error, also above the market expectation of about $104 billion. Data center revenue hit $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, accounting for 90% of the company's total revenue.
But the strangest thing isn't the numbers, it's what happened after hours.
When the earnings were released, the stock price initially dropped about 1% to 2%.
After the earnings call, it bounced back, rising about 4% to 5% in after-hours trading.
This has happened several times recently: earnings beat expectations, but the stock's first reaction is often weak—not because the numbers are bad, but because expectations have already been priced in too heavily.
There were two more solid confirmations on the same day.
Amazon officially announced it will purchase another 2 million GPUs from NVIDIA to deploy on AWS, covering 2027 to 2028; NVIDIA's CFO said that the capital expenditure of the five largest hyperscale cloud providers is close to $800 billion this year and could reach $1.3 trillion by 2027.
Demand is still increasing; it's not that no one is buying chips.
You see, this is the current contradiction: the financials look better and better, but the stock price finds it harder to surge just by "beating expectations."
So, is NVIDIA's earnings report a case of all the good news being priced in, or is the pullback an opportunity for investors to get in? $NVDA $xNVDA ETH shows relatively strong intraday performance, indicating that when the market lacks a clear direction, capital still prefers to return first to core assets with better liquidity and more complete narratives. Stablecoins, RWA, institutional custody, and on-chain financial infrastructure—these directions that have been repeatedly discussed recently—mostly revolve around the Ethereum ecosystem in the end. ETH's current advantage is not a single hotspot but a sufficiently broad application layer; however, it should be noted that if the mainstream market continues to shrink in volume, the rebound may also lack sustainability. Going forward, it is more worthwhile to watch DeFi activity, L2 capital flows, and whether institutional funds continue to recover. $ETH TRX is relatively weak intraday, performing more steadily than high Beta public chains, but this also indicates that short-term funds have no obvious intention to chase higher. The underlying logic of TRON has always been relatively clear: stablecoin transfers, on-chain settlement, and high-frequency usage scenarios. Recently, traditional finance has been continuously discussing stablecoin issuance and global settlement networks, which is a positive background for payment-oriented public chains like TRX, but the market will ultimately focus on the scale of on-chain stablecoins, transfer data, and fee income. It may not be the most explosive, but it is easier to demonstrate defensive characteristics in a volatile market. $TRX #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
The US core PCE remained flat compared to last month, indicating that the pace of inflation cooling has not accelerated for now. The market impact of this result depends on two aspects: first, whether core prices can continue to decline, and second, how the Federal Reserve interprets the current economic data. Since the monthly data has not significantly worsened, investors are unlikely to confirm a rate cut based on this for the time being, but the lack of upward momentum in inflation also leaves room for discussion about a policy shift.
Waller is about to speak at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, and the market expects him to explain the trade-offs between inflation, employment, and economic growth. The Fed previously held rates steady with a 9-3 vote, with three officials supporting a rate hike, making the division public. If Waller continues to emphasize inflation risks, expectations for a September rate cut may cool down, potentially strengthening the US dollar and Treasury yields, while gold, cryptocurrencies, and high-valuation tech stocks could face pressure. If he acknowledges that demand is slowing and signals a greater focus on employment, the market might bet again on policy easing, supporting risk assets.
What really matters is whether Waller can provide clear criteria for judgment. Investors need to know to what extent core PCE must decline and how much the unemployment rate must rise before rate decisions change. Without this set of standards, even if the speech contains dovish language, the market will find it difficult to form stable expectations. A severe drop does not mean no hope; this might be the most appropriate perspective when looking at the gap between DOGE and BTC. From the beginning of the year until now, DOGE has fallen from $0.156 to $0.084, a drop of about 46%; BTC during the same period has retreated from about $88,700 to around $78,700, only dropping about 11%. Objectively speaking, this is a typical Beta dilemma: in a down market, funds always withdraw first from high-volatility assets, and altcoins, lacking ETF support and institutional allocation, are the first to be hit, with their declines amplified multiple times.
But from another angle, Beta is a double-edged sword; the part that causes it to fall more today is precisely the source of its rebound elasticity tomorrow. Historically, every cycle follows a similar rhythm: BTC stabilizes first, hits new highs first, and only after confirming the trend does capital begin to overflow into high Beta assets, at which point altcoins often outperform the leaders by a wide margin. Currently, the deeper $DOGE retraces, the more thoroughly the trapped positions above are cleared, meaning that once market risk appetite returns, the recovery potential is considerable.
Of course, optimism does not mean recklessness. The reality that bulls need to accept is: the altcoin spring has never been an independent rally but an extension of the BTC rally. The leader does not just fall; talking about a reversal is wishful thinking. So a smarter approach might be—reserve core positions for $BTC as a foundation, and keep satellite positions for high-elasticity assets like DOGE to bet on a reversal. Pessimists correctly avoided the decline, while optimists have the chance to profit from the next round of elasticity.Iran risk now has two competing trades. Tougher US sanctions could squeeze oil supply, lift inflation and tighten dollar liquidity. Diplomacy could do the opposi Hormuz and stripping the risk premium from crude and gold. BTC sits awkwardly between both outcomes. Lower tensions reduce haven demand but improve the liquidity backdrop. The next move may depend less on geopolitics itself and more on whether sanctions or negotiations hit #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest "Computing power is no longer just a cost; it is becoming a means of production."
On the surface, Nvidia's earnings report shows "performance exceeding expectations," but what I think is truly worth watching is how it is transforming from a company that sells GPUs into the "master switch" for the entire AI industry's prosperity.
Now, judging Nvidia can no longer be based solely on how many GPUs it sells.
AI is shifting from "burning money to train models" to "using computing power to generate revenue."
AWS plans to deploy about 2 million Nvidia GPUs over the next two years, indicating that the capital expenditure cycle for cloud providers is far from over.
So my judgment is simple:
The fundamentals are stronger than the market fears.
But here comes the question—
After everyone knows Nvidia is strong, can the stock price continue to deliver the same returns?
This is what will truly be worth watching next. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $NVDA Another manifestation of extreme greed in the crypto circle, important for contract traders
After 6 days, let's look again at the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot and contract price inversion phenomenon
On August 21, the contract prices of both coins were inverted
99.9% of the time, the spot price is higher than the contract price; inversion only occurs when the market rises to extreme frenzy and retail investors recklessly go long
This situation also indicates short-term extreme greed and loss of rationality among retail investors, so a short-term peak is not far off. As expected, after Bitcoin surged, it started a small pullback
Today, the spot price has returned to calm, slightly higher than the contract price. This extreme greed sentiment has also eased, and there are many bearish voices in the market
From this perspective, this inversion phenomenon is very valuable for short-term contract traders. When prices are inverted, chasing to go long is irrational and carries great risk
If you trade contracts, you might as well consider this phenomenon in your order decisions
$ETH #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ POL is clearly under pressure today, with volatility greater than most mainstream public chain coins, reflecting that the market still strictly prices competition in the L2 track. Polygon has a mature developer base and enterprise cooperation resources, but investors are more concerned whether routes like AggLayer can truly bring cross-chain liquidity, active users, and application growth. Currently, if the overall market risk appetite declines, L2 tokens are usually the first to be reduced. Whether POL can recover later depends on whether the ecosystem data can cooperate, not just technical narratives. $POLBullish on ETH within three years, bullish on SOL after three years.
ETH is like the Swift system, its security is recognized by institutions, and it may be institutions entering the market that drive the price up within three years.
SOL is like the Visa company, high performance, more centralized than Ethereum. As blockchain technology gradually becomes recognized and popularized on Wall Street, the general public will start to accept blockchain technology and it will become common in everyday households. AI artificial intelligence robots will continue to develop, leading the subsequent development of DEPIN. This process may still take three years. Such large-scale growth requires a high-throughput chain. It could be SOL or other high-performance chains, but for now, SOL seems more likely.Strategy holding more cash indicates it is no longer just a "buy coin button." Previously, the market viewed it simply: raise funds, then buy BTC. Now it has started to increase cash reserves, manage preferred stock, and take care of capital structure, making things more complex. The more cash it holds, the stronger its volatility resistance; but too much cash dilutes the BTC leverage story.
This actually presents a new challenge for shareholders. When you buy MSTR, are you buying a more aggressive BTC exposure, or a company with increasingly mature balance sheet management? The answer differs, and so does the acceptable valuation.
I believe Strategy is entering its second phase: faith remains, but financial engineering is taking a seat at the main table. Going forward, the market will not only look at how many coins it has bought but also whether each financing round has caused painful dilution to existing shareholders.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 High-level divergence: Different adjustment logics of BTC and ETH
The market often tends to treat BTC and ETH as assets moving in the same direction, but during high-level consolidation phases, their adjustment rhythms are actually quite different, a divergence often overlooked by traders.
BTC's underlying chip structure is dominated by long-term believers, with a large supply locked in cold wallets, resulting in a limited effective circulating supply. After a rapid rally, large funds lack the motivation for concentrated selling; corrections are mostly driven by contract long-liquidations and leverage clearing, with controllable amplitude and a relatively slow pace. Therefore, BTC often shows a "time for space" sideways digestion characteristic at high levels.
ETH, however, is different. Its ecosystem is widely applied, with a high proportion of staked and on-chain arbitrage funds, leading to high price elasticity. After a rally, short-term traders, DeFi strategy funds, and liquidity mining participants are more likely to create concentrated cash-out pressure. Even if macro sentiment does not deteriorate, ETH may independently correct due to internal fund rotation, with amplitude and slope exceeding BTC, causing a significant decoupling of their strength.
This divergence is the biggest trap in high-level trading: seeing BTC hold steady, one assumes ETH is safe and blindly copies position strategies. In reality, stability supports high holding costs, while ETH's volatility reflects the double-edged sword effect of its high liquidity. In leveraged trading, the two require differentiated pricing—BTC can tolerate relatively loose stop-loss space, while ETH must tighten risk control, proactively reduce position multiples, and preset emergency plans for sudden sharp drops.
High-level consolidation is not a continuation of moving up or down together but a crucible of asset attributes.$BTC & $ETH : FLOWS REMAIN POSITIVE, BUT CAUTION RISES
$BTC trades around $79K after resistance near $80K–$82K, while $ETH holds above $2.5K and continues showing strength. Spot ETF flows remain a key positive, with U.S. BTC and ETH ETFs attracting roughly $2.6B over the latest five sessions.
However, profit-taking and macro uncertainty are limiting momentum. A sustained $BTC breakout above $82K would strengthen the bullish structure, while $ETH needs to hold $2.5K to maintain its advantage. 80,000 thresholds, 5 quick reviews
Quick Review 1: Up 23% in One Week, But Fuel Is Not Faith
BTC surged from 64,500 to 81,000, a weekly drop of 16,000 dollars.
On August 19, short positions were liquidated by $1.37 billion. On August 20 alone, 180,000 people were liquidated, totaling $3.264 billion.
The fuel for this round of rally is the bears' corpse, not the bulls' faith.
K33 himself said — this is the largest single-day short squeeze since they have recorded it. Plain language: The rise isn't because everyone is optimistic, but because #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Hash price (daily hash power wage) rose from about $32 per PH/s on August 18 to $38.33, an increase of about 20%.
Previously, the hash price once dropped to a historical low of $28-30, causing about 15%-20% of old mining machines to operate at a loss.
There are three reasons for the rebound: BTC rose from $62,000 to $81,000, the industry underwent passive clearing (hash power peak fell by about 10%), and mining difficulty was adjusted downward three times in a row.
However, miners are still some distance from truly profitable operations. The weighted average cash cost of listed mining companies in Q4 2025 is about $80,000 per unit, requiring BTC to hold above $100,000 long-term to be considered safe. Some mining companies' transformation to AI hash power leasing has also brought huge debts.
After the hash price rebound, some efficient mining machines have returned to profitability. It took miners one month to go from "mining one at a loss" to profitability again. But the real test is whether the coin price can hold above $70,000. $BTC BlackRock ETFs made large single-day increases in BTC and ETH, while institutional funds are still positioning against the trend, but the allocation priorities for both have clearly shifted.
$BTC increased holdings accounted for over 90% of this round's total inflow, $ETH were mostly follow-up small increases.
Institutions' current strategy is clear: first consolidate BTC holdings and hold it as a major safe-haven asset for the long term; ETH should be treated as a flexible asset, only allocated for small swing swings. This explains why BTC keeps testing previous highs while ETH remains oscillating at high levels, and the degree of capital favoritism directly determines the upper bounds of both coins' gains. Don't blindly bet on ETH catching up at high levels; institutional capital flows are the truest market attitude #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest BTC is now a bit like being stuck on the last big question in an exam.
The multiple-choice questions at the beginning were completed with the help of a ghostwriter.
Now, it's finally the turn of the person who actually has to pay to write the answer.
After BTC surged to $80,000 and then fell back, I actually feel that the most awkward situation now is not with the bulls, but rather that the "driving force" behind this rally is suddenly about to change hands.
The previous market trend is actually quite easy to understand. A large-scale short squeeze pushed BTC higher and higher, and many people who had bet on its decline ended up becoming the most active buyers. It sounds a bit surreal: the group that was the most pessimistic about BTC ended up driving its price up to $80,000.
But the problem is that a short squeeze cannot be a perpetual cycle. Once the short positions are mostly covered, if the price continues to rise, you can't always rely on "shorts continuing to contribute buying power."
So now it's time for the second phase: who will prove that the $80,000 is not a last-minute sprint?
Recently, ETF funds have started flowing back in, indicating that there are still buyers outside the market, and at least this rally isn't solely driven by short sellers pushing themselves into a corner. However, the closer prices get to the highs, the more likely it is for those who bought at lower levels to start cashing out. What's really at stake now is a contest between new buyers and sellers at high prices—whose patience will ultimately prevail.
Coincidentally, on August 28th, approximately $6.4 billion worth of BTC options were set to expire, making the battle around the $75,000 to $80,000 range even more intense.
#BTC surges and then retreats, options expiration amplifies the battle at key levels $BTC$BTC $ETH $FIL currently has about 33% more short positions in derivatives than long positions. The core conflict lies in the game between selling pressure caused by miners locking in profits for hedging and the short squeeze risk that may be triggered by crowded shorts.
Market data shows that short positions hold a clear advantage. The driving force behind this structure is primarily miners' hedging demand, followed by directional speculative orders.
Miners usually choose to sell spot when prices rise while establishing short positions to guard against price declines. This profit-locking hedging behavior suppresses spot rebound potential while accumulating a high proportion of short positions in the derivatives market.
The trigger for an upward scenario is strong short-term spot buying absorbing miners' sell orders. When buying pushes prices higher, the 33% short position premium will turn into short squeeze fuel, and short stop-loss liquidations will accelerate price expansion upward.
The failure signal for the upward scenario is spot trading volume failing to support a breakout, with high-level buying quickly shrinking, causing short squeeze momentum to dissipate.
The trigger for a downward scenario is continuous spot selling pressure without follow-up buying support. Without buying absorption, hedging positions and speculative shorts jointly exert pressure, pushing prices to test support zones downward.
The failure signal for the downward scenario is large spot buy orders appearing at low levels to accumulate, or a concentrated rebound in derivatives long positions.
The most important variables to watch over the next 7 days are whether the $FIL derivatives short position ratio remains near the high level of 33%, and whether spot trading volume can continue to expand during the rebound.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元Market bottoms are often surrounded by a wave of negative news. When BTC was around $50K, there were constant rumors about potential selling pressure from Mt. Gox. Yet not long after, Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high and nearly doubled in price.
Likewise, when BTC reached the $110K–$120K area, the headlines turned overwhelmingly bullish—ETF inflows, strategic reserves, spot ETF demand, and more.
#PCEToJacksonHole
#AIMonetizationBroadens
#HormuzFlowsVsSanctions Nine consecutive days of price rally, bullish sentiment continues🔥Today's market signals are mixed, but the direction is narrowing.
BTC is currently trading around 79200, ETH continues to catch up, reaching 2520. The three major US stock indices show mixed gains and losses, with the Nasdaq slightly stronger driven by Nvidia, but overall funds remain defensive. After the PCE data release, short-term US Treasury yields rose slightly, and the suppression of risk assets by real interest rates is slowly returning.
The significance of Nvidia's earnings report lies not in the "beat expectations" itself, but in the magnitude and structure of the beat. The revenue share from data centers further increased, the Chinese market recovery is evident, and the median guidance for next quarter is about 8% higher than consensus. However, the market reaction was restrained, with a rise and fall in the night session, indicating that the marginal price-driving power of the AI narrative is weakening, and the market is more concerned about macro pricing factors.
Parts of Wash's speech at Jackson Hole leaked in advance, with neutral wording emphasizing "relying on data and staying flexible," without a prior commitment to the September path. CME pricing shows a 71% probability of maintaining rates in September, but expectations for rate cuts within 2024 have been compressed to 1.5 times. After the inflation data release, discussions about rate hikes are unlikely to completely fade, but the market tends to focus the game on the pace of rate cuts in 2026.
In the Middle East, oil prices rose briefly after Trump's statement, with geopolitical premiums re-entering. BTC has shown resilience in this round of macro tug-of-war, but resilience does not equal breakthrough power. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
Many people see the July core PCE at 3.3% as expected and Q2 GDP holding at 1.5%, and their first reaction is relief, thinking that no black swan event is good news. But in my view, this seemingly calm data actually pushes the Fed into the most awkward stagflation squeeze.
The 1.5% real GDP growth exposes that the real economy's momentum is decelerating, while the 3.3% core PCE is still far from the 2% red line. Cutting rates risks a second inflation surge, tightening risks a credit crash in the real economy. Market interest rate pricing has shifted toward inflation stickiness because capital has recognized the reality: the so-called easing door has never truly opened.
The whole market is treating Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday as a lifeline, but I urge everyone not to hold unilateral illusions. In the deadlock between growth and inflation divergence, central bank officials are best at using vague guidance to play Tai Chi. Powell will most likely maintain a hawkish defensive stance to suppress inflation; expecting him to directly deliver stimulus is like chasing a mirage.
The divergence in major asset classes has already said it all: U.S. Treasury yields are welded high by the bond issuance wave, gold is hedging against the ultimate erosion of fiat credit, and Bitcoin is in a liquidity vacuum. In the thin market of existing positions, blindly betting on the speech direction will only become fuel for market makers to clear leverage.
Facing the deadlock of 3.3% inflation and 1.5% growth, after Powell's speech on Friday, do you think U.S. Treasury yields will bow first, or will risk assets first undergo a round of deleveraging and shakeout? Key Milestones
I think next Tuesday
How BTC has fluctuated around $80,000 these past few days isn't the most important thing.
I'm more focused on next Tuesday, September 1st.
On that day, the US will release the August ISM Manufacturing PMI, with last month's data surging to 55.6, showing much stronger economic resilience than market expectations. The new data on September 1 will directly influence market judgments about the US economy, inflation, and subsequent Federal Reserve policies.
Next up are ADP employment, ISM services, then Friday's nonfarm payrolls. Next Tuesday will actually be the first macro data shot for the week #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Guys, those storage chips you caught at the bottom, don't get your hands itchy, hold on tight.
Last night's Nvidia earnings report kept sending one signal: AI is accelerating, storage is insufficient, and prices need to rise. Q2 revenue doubled to $96.2 billion year-on-year, with next quarter's guidance at $108 billion. Jensen Huang once said, "AI has reached a turning point, computing power is revenue." But the CFO was more blunt—memory costs have risen sharper than expected, and the shortage will last at least until the end of fiscal year 2028.
1. Price increases are not just slogans
NVIDIA itself has tipped off major clients that AI cabinet costs will rise by more than 15% next year, mainly driven by continued increases in HBM and DRAM contract prices. Its "cost item" is the "profit item" of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
2. The shortage is a structural #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest In-depth analysis of the recent surge coin $BTR
$BTR is a Bitcoin Layer2 based on the BitVM paradigm, aiming to bring smart contract and DeFi capabilities to Bitcoin without modifying the underlying Bitcoin protocol.
Use cases include: governance voting, node staking/incentives, ecosystem rewards, and potentially serving as gas or participating in fee distribution (fee-switch) in the future. Currently, about 26%-33% is in circulation.
Advantages include strong security narrative: it attempts to inherit Bitcoin's PoW security rather than being a typical sidechain or multisig bridge.
Good development experience: EVM compatible, much easier to use than pure Bitcoin scripts.
Funding and endorsements: total funding around $25-30 million, with investors including Polychain, Franklin Templeton, Framework, StarkWare, etc. It once reached a relatively high TVL early on and was regarded as one of the representatives of Bitcoin L2 in the BTCFi narrative.
Actual implementation is currently weak: the bridge is closed, and on-chain real activity and TVL do not match the price volatility. Why did it surge so much this round? Before August 26, the price hovered around $0.03, then within 24 hours, the increase generally ranged from +80% to +300%+, reaching a high of around $0.14-$0.18, with 24h trading volume surging to $260-340 million.
The main reason is not that the project suddenly had a major🚨 This signal has historically given important alerts for 4 consecutive cycles.
And this time, BTC has once again reclaimed a key position.
But what the market should really pay attention to may not be the price itself, but the meaning behind this technical signal.
On August 20, after staying below the 1,130-day moving average for about 80 consecutive days, BTC broke through this long-term indicator again.
Subsequently, the price quickly surged from around $74,000, reaching a high of over $81,000.
Historical data shows that in past cycles, when BTC reclaimed this long-term moving average, it was accompanied by a shift from a bear market structure to a bull market phase.
More importantly, this rebound is not driven by a single factor.
📈 Since mid-August, BTC has rebounded from about $62,700 to above $80,000, with a short-term increase of over 20% in just a few days.
💰 The US spot BTC ETF funds have flowed back, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding $3 billion since August, indicating institutional demand is recovering.
🌐 On the macro side, the US Treasury has increased the scale of long-term bond repurchases, causing changes in bond yields and the dollar's trend, which also brings new liquidity expectations to risk assets like BTC.
⚡ Meanwhile, a large number of short positions have been forced to close, further accelerating this rally. Recent market data shows that single short squeezes have led to liquidation scales reaching tens of billions of dollars.
But now it’s not so simple I think this is an issue that must be taken into consideration. Bitcoin might later experience a big bull market that continues to punish those who think this way, but that doesn't mean you can go all in right now.
Let me remind everyone, with the current IV, options are still very cheap, so even though I'm currently trading with a bullish mindset, continuously selling both sides at this level, I still bought 61-63k puts expiring at the end of October as insurance. The total cost of these puts is only 0.6 coins, which guarantees peace of mind for the next two months, at least protecting against a heavy hit.
If you also have concerns about the future market, you can look at the call options in the red box area; if buying naked calls feels uncomfortable, use a ratio spread.
It's already a bull market and you're still so cautious? I think if this is truly a bull market, my October calls are enough, but the most annoying scenario I can think of is a sideways market ending with a pullback breaking below 72k, even 70k. At that point, I wouldn't even call it a pullback anymore. It's a simple logic: the 70-75k range is a highly concentrated area of people who missed out. If these people can calmly buy in, then don't expect the rally to go far.$7 billion surged in 5 days: Gold and Bitcoin are being bought simultaneously, the market is not buying two assets, but the same kind of unease
Record-breaking capital inflow
In just five trading days, about $7 billion flowed simultaneously into gold and Bitcoin ETFs, setting a historic record.
Two asset classes long compared on opposite ends of the scale have, for the first time, clearly become a joint choice of the same capital.
Investors no longer seem to be debating which is more trustworthy, gold or Bitcoin, but are buying both. The real bet is not on a certain asset's inevitable surge, but on the possibility that the purchasing power of traditional monetary systems may continue to be diluted amid the ever-expanding global debt.
Capital flow: Not just emotional speculation
Looking at capital flows, this wave of allocation fever is not just emotional:
· State Street SPDR Gold ETF: attracted nearly $3.4 billion in five days
· BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF: net inflow of about $1.5 billion
Both products ranked among the top weekly inflows for US ETFs. Gold and Bitcoin competing simultaneously with the S&P 500 index fund for capital itself indicates a fundamental shift in market risk appetite.
Direct trigger: US Treasury repo expansion
The direct spark for this rally was US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's announcement to expand the scale of long-term US Treasury repurchases, planning to at least double it.
US Treasury yields and the dollar came under pressure, and gold and Bitcoin quickly strengthened:
· Gold's cumulative gain this month once reached about 13%, breaking above $4,600 per ounce
· Bitcoin reclaimed the $80,000 level
US Treasury repurchases are not the same as the Federal Reserve directly printing money, but against the backdrop of high deficits, high debt, and high interest expenses, the market is more concerned about the signal this policy sends: "When the government frequently uses tools to improve Treasury liquidity and lower financing costs, it means the huge debt's constraints on the financial system are deepening."
The "impossible trinity" facing the US
The US faces an increasingly difficult choice:
· Keeping interest rates high long-term → government debt servicing costs keep rising
· Using easing policies to lower rates → dollar purchasing power and inflation expectations are hit
· Sharply cutting fiscal spending → may drag economic growth
No matter which path is chosen, debt will not disappear; costs will ultimately be redistributed through taxes, inflation, currency depreciation, or asset price volatility.
It is in this context that gold and Bitcoin have been placed back into the same asset allocation framework.
Gold and Bitcoin: Same logic, different roles
Gold has thousands of years of value storage history, does not rely on any country's credit, and will not suddenly increase supply due to a government expanding deficits.
Bitcoin, though younger and more volatile, with a capped total supply of 21 million coins, is seen by some investors as a "digital scarce asset."
Though completely different in form, they share a common feature: "Their supply cannot be arbitrarily expanded based on government financing needs."
Therefore, gold and Bitcoin rising together does not mean Bitcoin has replaced gold, nor that gold has lost its traditional safe-haven status.
More precisely:
· Gold → hedges long-term risks of the traditional financial system
· Bitcoin → bets on scarcity in the digital age
"One provides stability, the other resilience; one is insurance proven over a long history, the other a high-volatility, high-risk off-system option."
This time is different: Concentrated correction of "underallocation"
What is more noteworthy is the speed of capital inflow.
Year-to-date data comparison:
· SPDR Gold ETF, about $155 billion in size: still a net outflow of about $2.8 billion
· BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, about $60 billion in size: net inflow of only about $830 million
Now, a record inflow in just five days shows this is not a long-standing one-sided consensus, but more like "investors suddenly starting to correct the previous underallocation to scarce assets."
In other words, the market is not simply chasing gains but "recalculating the risk of not holding."
When fiscal anxiety, debt pressure, and expectations of monetary easing rise simultaneously, relying solely on bonds and fiat currency assets may no longer provide sufficient protection for portfolios.
Ray Dalio suggests investors reduce some bond holdings, allocate up to about 15% of assets to gold, and hold a small amount of Bitcoin—reflecting this risk hedging approach.
Risk warning: $7 billion inflow does not mean only rises, no falls
Of course, $7 billion inflow does not mean gold and Bitcoin will only rise:
· Gold itself does not generate cash flow
· Bitcoin is highly volatile
If the dollar rebounds, US Treasury yields rise again, or global liquidity tightens, both assets may face significant pullbacks. ETF capital flows reflect demand but cannot eliminate price risk for investors. Especially after significant short-term gains, "crowded trades and profit-taking are also worth caution."
Some analysts believe the "currency depreciation trade" may be oversimplified by the market. While expanding fiscal deficits increase scarce assets' appeal, if corporate profits grow in line with nominal economic size, quality stocks may also serve as tools against inflation and currency purchasing power decline. Gold and Bitcoin's rise is not solely driven by depreciation expectations but also includes "capital replenishment, trend trading, and risk appetite recovery" factors.
Conclusion: What is being reassessed is not just price, but the cost of debt
No matter how long this rally lasts, the $7 billion record in five days reveals an important change:
"Investors have begun to abandon the 'gold or Bitcoin' either-or debate and instead seek scarce assets in both the traditional and digital worlds simultaneously."
This capital wave is truly reassessing not just the prices of gold and Bitcoin, but the "long-term cost of US debt expansion."
As more capital is willing to pay premiums for two "assets that cannot be easily inflated," the market is expressing the same concern—
"What people fear is never missing a rally, but that in an era of expanding debt, the currency in hand quietly loses value."
$BTC $XAU
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
#黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 Over the past 8 trading days, $BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous net inflows totaling approximately $2.8 billion, directly driving $BTC from $62.9K all the way above $79K, a gain of over 25%.
Looking back at this period, what were the key signals?
1️⃣ BlackRock led: IBIT contributed about 80% of BTC inflows, with traditional institutions choosing regulated ETF channels as their first option. The IBIT physical subscription/redemption threshold also dropped sharply from $25M to $1M, opening the door to more institutions.
2️⃣ Wall Street giants appear: Jane Street disclosed to the SEC that it holds over $990 million in Bitcoin ETF assets, a real-money institutional allocation.
3️⃣ Coin hoarding logic remains: Exchanges saw a single-day net outflow of about 4,360 BTC, with funds moving from exchanges to cold wallets, consistent with ETF inflows — both are accumulation signals of "withdrawal + hoarding."
4️⃣ Macro narrative support: U.S. Treasury debt surpassed $40 trillion, and BTC’s logic as an alternative store of value is increasingly accepted.
Today's inflation data exceeded expectations, causing BTC to retreat below $79K;
The Fear & Greed Index has reached 80, indicating a higher risk of market pullback ahead.
In summary: Institutional allocation is a slow variable with solid trend logic; short-term sentiment is overheated, so pullbacks and consolidation are normal.
Not investment advice, please operate cautiously. What exactly is today's Fear and Greed Index? I checked three different sources and got three answers: two mainstream platforms both show 80, but one categorizes it as "Greedy" while the other as "Extreme Greedy"; the most widely cited public data source in the industry gives 71, only counting as "Greedy." The same day, the same indicator, a 9-point difference, and even the category labels don't match. The update frequencies also differ: the platform values fluctuate in real time—I saw 83, 79, and 80 within ten minutes; the public source updates only once a day. So the question "How greedy is today?" itself has no single answer. Before using it as a basis, first clarify which source you are looking at. More worth noting than the numbers is the divergence: the index still hangs in the greedy zone, yet the total crypto market cap fell by 2.74% the same day, while BTC at 78,752 only dropped 0.20%, holding a 59.1% share—meaning that 2.74% drop almost entirely hit altcoins. The index is propped up by BTC alone; it measures BTC's sentiment, not the market's sentiment. The more an indicator is dominated by a single asset, the less valuable it is as a reference for "market sentiment."bitcoin isn’t replacing gold — it’s capturing gold’s “growth” side
$XAUT remains around $4,644,quietly fulfilling its role as a safe haven.But $BTC at $78.9K tells a different story: over the past 7 and 30 days,Bitcoin has risen noticeably faster
It’s not that gold is weakening.It’s simply that when liquidity risk-on sentiment return,BTC reacts more strongly.
Gold is like a safe.Bitcoin is like a growth engine built on the same“scarce asset” narrative
Greater upside — but also greater volatility$ETH is currently in a phase described as "bull market conditions are basically in place, but technical overheating needs to be digested." It has the core elements to start a bull market, but before the trend is officially confirmed, the issue of short-term momentum overheating needs to be resolved.
The "three pillars" of the bull market have been ignited
The main forces driving ETH upward currently come from these three aspects:
· Accelerated inflow of institutional funds: Since August, Ethereum spot ETFs have seen a net inflow exceeding $1.06 billion (the best since August 2025), with six consecutive days of net inflows, including $186 million on August 19 alone. BlackRock's ETHA is the main capital attractor. This is a stark contrast to the previous weeks of net outflows.
· On-chain indicators signal a "golden cross": ETH's 50-day weighted moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average (forming a "golden cross" on August 21), and the daily MVRV ratio has also broken above the 160-day moving average. Historically, these two signals have predicted multiple significant rebounds in 2023 and 2024.
· Large holders and "smart money" are taking action: In the past month, about 1 million ETH (nearly $2 billion) have flowed out of exchanges, the lowest level in ten years. The largest listed ETH holding institution, BitMine, bought an additional 32,447 ETH (about $81 million) last week, bringing its total holdings to 4.8% of the circulating supply. Fidelity, with $5 trillion, just purchased over $400 million worth of $BTC. Everyone is entering, right? Anyway, as long as you believe $BTC will reach 500,000 per coin, then buying at 50,000 or 80,000 makes no difference.
Currently, it looks like Wall Street forces are buying $BTC Playing with US stocks and blowing up your account, then asking crypto bros to withdraw? 0xsun is scamming again, this time he tricked 500,000 USDT, claiming he clicked a phishing email link and logged into X, then X got hacked?
A computer science master's degree holder, tech-savvy, and a seasoned crypto veteran—how likely is it that he falls for an email phishing scam?
The funds in the wallet weren’t stolen; instead, the market opened with a pump. This operation looks like a staged act. The possibility that the hacker is his brother is much higher than a real account hack.
Don’t say X got hacked and it’s not credible. Even if it wasn’t hacked, it’s still not trustworthy. He’s already notorious and shamelessly scamming people.$BTC & $ETH: FLOWS REMAIN POSITIVE, BUT CAUTION RISES
$BTC trades around $79K after resistance near $80K–$82K, while $ETH holds above $2.5K and continues showing strength. Spot ETF flows remain a key positive, with U.S. BTC and ETH ETFs attracting roughly $2.6B over the latest five sessions.
#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest 本周五B$BTC 会迎来一个不小的衍生品节点：大约81700张比特币期权将在Deribit到期，名义价值约64.4亿美元。 先说一个最简单的理解：期权到期，不代表64亿美元真的会直接砸进现货市场 但因为大量仓位集中在几个关键执行价附近，做市商为了控制风险，可能会频繁买卖BTC或期货对冲，所以到期前后波动容易被放大。 这次最值得看的两个位置是75000美元和80000美元。 75000美元附近的看涨期权未平仓名义价值约2.36亿美元，80000美元附近约1.57亿美元。 与此同时，看涨期权数量高于看跌期权，Put/Call Ratio大约0.83，整体仓位还是偏多。 为什么市场这次这么紧张？因为BTC刚刚从大约62000美元快速拉到80000美元附近，一周涨幅非常大。 很多原本远离现价的看涨期权一下子变成了价内仓位，做市商对冲压力也跟着上来了。 所以这次真正需要看的，不是“期权到期一定涨还是一定跌”，而是80000美元附近会不会出现明显的价格吸附，或者一旦突破关键执行价后，Gamma对冲反过来把波动进一步放大。 对普通交易者来说，这种大额期权到期日最容易犯的错误，就是看到价格突然拉升或跳Treasury buybacks may improve market plumbing, but they should not be mistaken for a change in the fiscal tide. Using a $935B TGA balance while raising the cap for 10- to 30-year Treasury operations to at least $4B from Sep 9 could ease liquidity strains at the margin. It does not resemble Fed QE, reduce outstanding debt, or remove the pressure of sticky inflation and elevated long yields. My read: if heavy issuance keeps term premiums firm, buybacks can smooth volatility while leaving the underlying deficit-funding challenge intact. Not advice, just analysis.
#TGABuybacksVsFiscalRisk#BTC surge and pullback, options expiration amplifies the key level battle
The earlier surge was because K33 provided data indicating that this rally included the largest single-day short squeeze on record. Simply put, shorts were flushed out in one wave, and futures open interest dropped significantly. Much of the previous price increase was driven by short covering rather than natural buying demand.
#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest $SNDK storage stocks also surged last night following Nvidia's earnings release.
Although the earnings far exceeded expectations, the market did not buy into it. After the earnings were released, Nvidia's stock fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading. This better-than-expected performance did not surprise investors.
The real turning point was the guidance and expectations given by Colette Kress during the conference call. Both figures were extremely high, with next quarter's guidance directly set at $108 billion, projecting revenue growth of about 70%, while analysts expected 45%. She raised the estimate by 25 percentage points. These two very strong expectations immediately ignited market sentiment, and the stock price quickly reversed from a decline to a rise, then increased by 4.2%, with trading volume exceeding 50 million shares.
Nvidia's performance strongly validates the AI infrastructure investment logic, with storage being one of its clearest beneficiary areas. More importantly, Nvidia's gross margin guidance (74%) confirms that supply remains tight, which supports the continuation of high prices for storage chips. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 Bitcoin Strongly Rebounds Over 25%: From Collective Bearishness to High-Level Frenzy, Calmly Analyzing Current Market Opportunities and Risks
The recent trend in the crypto market vividly showcases the battle of human nature. Previously, Bitcoin hovered near $62,000 for a long time with low volatility, the overall market was sluggish, negative news kept fermenting, on-exchange bulls’ confidence was repeatedly worn down, new external funds hesitated to enter, and short positions in the futures market remained persistently high. The vast majority of traders predicted the market would continue to decline, and pessimism firmly enveloped the entire market. Just when everyone lost confidence in the future, Bitcoin experienced a coherent surge, breaking through multiple key resistance levels, reaching a high of $78,000. In a short period, the price rose over 25%, and market sentiment quickly shifted from freezing point to current optimistic excitement.
1. Prolonged Low-Level Sideways Movement Essentially Represents a Reshuffling of Chips
The long bottoming phase near $62,000 was essentially a process of clearing out floating chips. The market fluctuated narrowly for a long time, with frequent upper and lower wicks testing retail investors’ patience. Many short-term investors couldn’t withstand the repeated shakeouts and chose to cut losses and exit amid panic, handing over their low-priced chips. Futures traders were frequently stopped out, and unstable chips on-exchange were heavily cleared, while long-term funds quietly accumulated chips during this process. When pessimism peaked and retail chips fully rotated, the market found an opportunity to reverse. This surge was not a sudden speculative spike but an inevitable move after prior accumulation.
2. Multiple Drivers Behind This Rally Jointly Strengthen the Market
This Bitcoin rally is the result of multiple factors resonating: macro environment, institutional funds, and market sentiment. On the macro level, the US dollar index continued to weaken, long-term US Treasury yields declined, expectations for Federal Reserve monetary easing intensified, and global risk assets broadly saw valuation recovery. Bitcoin, as the core asset in crypto, attracted capital first. On the institutional side, Bitcoin spot ETFs maintained steady net inflows, and institutional long-term allocation funds continued to build positions at low levels, solidifying market support and preventing deep declines. The short-term explosive momentum was mainly due to a large buildup of short positions previously. After breaking key resistance, massive short liquidations triggered forced buybacks, further pushing prices higher and creating a strong short squeeze.
3. Risks at High Levels Gradually Accumulate; Do Not Be Blinded by Short-Term Gains
With the price stabilizing at the $78,000 high, bullish sentiment is spreading, and many investors blindly expect further gains, even chasing the rally. However, several warning signs have appeared: first, compared to the rally phase, current volume has clearly shrunk, and price is oscillating at high levels. The momentum for bulls to continue pushing upward is evidently insufficient, showing signs of volume-price divergence; second, chips accumulated near $62,000 have gained substantial profits, and profit-taking could bring significant selling pressure; simultaneously, funds chasing above $70,000 are now trapped at high levels, and any pullback could amplify selling pressure and market volatility. After a one-sided rally ends, the market officially enters a high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Blindly chasing highs carries risks far greater than potential rewards.
4. Major Macro Data Is About to Be Released, Marking a Critical Turning Point
The market is currently at an important decision point. US core PCE inflation data, central bank speeches, and Nvidia earnings reports will be released sequentially. These macro events directly determine the direction of US dollar liquidity and deeply influence capital flows in the crypto market. If data signals easing, market sentiment may continue, and the market will digest profits through high-level oscillations; if data leans hawkish and tightening expectations rise, the already high market could quickly correct and shake out positions. Before the data is released, most funds will remain cautious, and the market will likely maintain volatile high-level oscillations with frequent wicks, making sustained one-sided moves unlikely in the short term.
5. Rationally Plan Trading Strategies and Prioritize Risk Management for Long-Term Success
After this emotional rollercoaster, traders must abandon herd-driven emotional trades. Investors who missed the low should not impulsively chase the rally but wait for a pullback and stabilization; do not blindly buy at highs. Those already holding profitable positions can gradually take profits to lock in gains. Short-term traders must control position sizes and strictly set stop losses, never heavily betting on a one-sided move.
Crypto market cycles repeat endlessly. When others panic, maintain independent judgment; when others are euphoric, keep calm and steady. Strict position management and respect for market risks are the fundamentals for long-term survival in crypto.
$BTC