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One year ago at this time, the market was still betting with a 99.3% probability on a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
And now?
CME shows the probability of two rate hikes this year exceeds 50%.
It took only one "Warsh era" to shift from a consensus on rate cuts to a consensus on rate hikes.
Before the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, three forces are making their final moves.
🔥 First force: The rate hike camp (CME + BNP Paribas + 3 FOMC members)
Latest data from CME "FedWatch": Probability of holding rates steady in September is 43.1%, cumulative 25 basis point hike probability is 56.9%.
Probability that the Fed holds rates steady until October is 29.3%, cumulative 25 basis point hike probability is 52.5%, cumulative 50 basis point hike probability is 18.3%.
September rate hike probability surged from 39.9% on August 21 to 57%.
In July's FOMC, 3 members already supported a 25bp hike. Internal divisions are widening.
BNP Paribas expects three consecutive hikes starting in December.
This is not speculation; the market is betting with real money.
❄️ Second force: The hold steady camp (4 smart money addresses on Polymarket)
On Polymarket, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in September is 52%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 48%, with contract trading volume exceeding $66.6 million.
Note a detail: 4 addresses invested $105,400 betting on "no rate ceiling increase after September," with an average buy-in probability of 58.9%, lower than the current market price of 63.5%.
At the peak of rate hike expectations, they are betting against the trend to hold steady.
This is not gambling. This is smart money trading against CME.
🏛️ Third force: Political intervention camp (Trump's camp)
On Wednesday, Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House and again urged the Fed to cut rates as soon as possible, saying the interest costs borne by the U.S. are too high.
He insisted that even strong economic data should not prevent the central bank from adopting a more accommodative policy stance.
Every 1 percentage point rate cut equates to about $600 billion in reduced costs for the U.S.
Trump's rate cut rhetoric, combined with smart money bets on Polymarket, forms a rare long-short showdown.
Key variables:
Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls: Expected increase of 55,000 jobs, unemployment rate 4.1%. Analyst Anna Wong said Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole increased the likelihood of a September hike, and the weak August payrolls may not be as decisive as usual.
Next Wednesday's CPI: August inflation data, Goldman Sachs expects core CPI month-over-month increase around 0.2%.
ISM data: Tuesday manufacturing and Thursday services "price paid index" — more likely to affect Warsh's nerves than Nonfarm Payrolls.
Current crypto market status:
Bitcoin briefly dropped to $77,000 after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, a short-term decline of 3%.
The August 29 speech triggered $487 million in crypto asset liquidations, affecting 97,691 traders.
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $78,000.
Rate hike expectations suppress risk appetite. U.S. Treasury yields rise, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
One year ago, everyone was betting on rate cuts. What happened?
Now everyone is betting on rate hikes — are you really sure this time is different?
Before the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, these three forces will have their final showdown.
Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls will reveal the truth. $BTC $ETH $XAU #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 On August 30, Cronos validators froze the entire blockchain. 24 hours earlier, Fogo did the same. A week before that, Cosmos Labs issued an emergency notice to all chains running the Cosmos EVM module: upgrade or shut down. Three different attack vectors, three different networks, yet all leading to the same final solution: chain halt. This might be one of the most thought-provoking issues in the crypto industry in 2026: when a real crisis hits, why does a so-called "decentralized" public chain ultimately rely on a group of validators to "pull the plug"? 1. Cronos: $75 million in 20 minutes The largest lending protocol on Cronos, Tectonic, was attacked. The attacker targeted the low-liquidity governance token TONIC. The tactic was not new: pump the price → create inflated collateral → borrow real assets. Within about 20 minutes, the attacker raised TONIC's price by approximately 100 times, then used the inflated tokens as collateral to borrow assets like cbBTC, USDC, WETH from the lending pool. On-chain researchers estimate the potential loan amount at about $75 million. But Cronos validators reacted very quickly. When the entire chain was frozen, the attacker had only transferred about $6 million to Ethereum via cross-chain bridges, while the remaining approximately $60 million was trapped on the chain that had stopped producing blocks. This was a successful stop-loss. But#Intensive Employment Data Releases, Waller's Policy Stance Tested Jackson Hole Meeting Marks Waller's Hawkish Debut, Setting the Tone for the Market: Inflation Suppression is Priority, Monetary Policy Unlikely to Ease. After the Speech, September Rate Hike Expectations Soared from 35% to Nearly 60%, U.S. Treasury Yields Rose, and BTC Subsequently Experienced a Sharp Pullback, Quickly Dropping from Above 80,000 to a Low Near 76,900, Increasing Market Volatility. This Week Will See a Series of Intensive Employment Indicators: JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Small Nonfarm, Initial Jobless Claims, and August Nonfarm Payrolls Released in Succession. This Set of Employment Data Will Become the Most Important Pricing Benchmark for September Fed Policy Expectations. Reviewing Previous Data, July Nonfarm Payrolls Unexpectedly Decreased by 23,000, While May and June Employment Data Were Significantly Revised Downward, with a Cumulative Reduction of 103,000, Signaling Early Signs of Labor Market Cooling. However, Waller's Statement Breaks Simple Logic: Even if Employment Weakens, As Long As Inflation Has Not Clearly Fallen to the 2% Target, the Fed Will Not Easily Shift to Easing. The Current Financial Environment Is Still Not Considered Tight, and Fighting Inflation Remains the Policy Focus. The Next Market Battle Points Are Very Clear: ✅ Strong Employment Data: Sufficient Economic Resilience, Rising Inflation Rebound Risk, Further Strengthening of Rate Hike Expectations, Pressure on Risk Assets, BTC Likely to Continue Weak Consolidation; ✅ Significant Employment Weakness: Confirmed Labor Market Cooling, Will Constrain Waller's Hawkish Space, Rate Hike Expectations Decline, Potentially Bringing a Round of Recovery Rebound. The Short-Term Market Is in a Macro-Sensitive Window Period, Prices Are Likely to Fluctuate Back and Forth with Data Expectations, 7767 Robinhood Chain's performance over the past two months has actually provided a very clear direction for other public chains.
The imagination for permissionless asset issuance. Not relying on airdrops and point-based competition, but letting the market decide what to issue and trade. Issuing new assets + distributing mature assets might be the next phase worth focusing on for public chains.
Every new type of asset issuance method has driven the birth of a bull market:
1. 2017 — ICOs dominated by Ethereum;
2. 2020 — IDOs dominated by DeFi;
3. 2023 — the inscription movement born on the Bitcoin chain.
If the Robinhood ecosystem continues to expand, the first to benefit may not be the projects best at storytelling, but those protocols that can get capital flowing and make new asset issuance and trading easier.
There are only two targets, which are $PONS and $UNI In the same market, $SOL and $DOGE have taken completely opposite paths, while $BTC quietly consolidates around 78,000. This divergence is more intriguing than a one-sided market.📊
I still hold $SOL, which I bought at $76, currently with an unrealized profit of about $5,000. Looking back at August, SOL rose a total of 46.9%, while DOGE dropped 7.2% this week. Bitcoin surged from 64,000 to 81,000 at the beginning of the month, an increase of over 20%, but has barely moved this week.
Capital is quietly shifting—from meme coins to mainstream public chains. When traditional financial institutions like Charles Schwab enter the market, they choose SOL over DOGE, which is more tangible than any candlestick signal. Institutional preferences often indicate longer-term pricing logic.
It is worth noting that Wash recently emphasized inflation risks, and market expectations for a September rate hike are heating up. With macro variables and sector rotation combined, the divergent market may continue. Holders need to be more patient and also beware of high-level volatility.⚠️
Risk warning: The crypto market is highly volatile. This article does not constitute investment advice; please make decisions rationally. Institutional funds are reshaping the boundaries of the crypto market, and this is no longer a narrative dominated by a single asset. The latest developments show that Charles Schwab's crypto platform is expected to open broader channels for SOL, AVAX, and LINK, having already earned the trust of millions of investors. This means that, following Bitcoin and Ethereum, more digital assets are gradually entering the traditional financial landscape.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs recorded positive capital inflows on August 27, with BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP all favored by the market. These two factors combined outline a clear trajectory: traditional finance's acceptance is shifting from tentative observation to systematic deployment. Capital is no longer entering sporadically but with scale and institutional posture.
However, this expansion is not without cost. The influx of diverse assets enriches allocation dimensions but also amplifies sources of volatility—different tokens vary in liquidity, regulatory status, and market depth, making the rhythm of capital flows potentially more uneven. For investors, opportunities and noise often coexist; the key lies in discerning which are the underlying trends and which are merely transient ripples.
The market structure is quietly evolving, requiring observers to exercise more patience and composure. Risk reminder: This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Please rationally assess your own risk tolerance. HYPE has $800 million unlocking, but I won't short directly
HYPE has an upcoming unlock of about 9.92M tokens, but I won't short just because of the headline "$800 million unlocking."
The mainstream market view is simple: on September 6, core contributors unlock tokens, supply suddenly increases, and HYPE is likely to be dumped.
My judgment is different: what really determines selling pressure is not "how much unlocks," but "how much is actually claimed and sold."
Tokenomist shows that the next unlock on September 6 is indeed for core contributors, about 9.92M HYPE. At the current price of about $80, the nominal value is close to $800 million.
Sounds scary, but in the previous similar batch, the plan in March was also 9.92M, and the actual claimed amount was only about 173,000 tokens, which is about 1.75%.
So, "9.92M unlocking" should never be directly equated with "9.92M immediately dumped."
On the other hand, Hyperliquid itself still has ongoing buyback demand. Public statistics show that since the end of 2024, the cumulative buyback scale of HYPE has been quite considerable.
Currently, with HYPE around $80, my plan is simple:
If it falls below 78 and actual claims significantly increase, I turn cautious;
If it holds between 78–80 and claim volume remains low, I won't chase shorts;
If it climbs back to 83–85, I will consider the market is digesting the unlock expectations.
What really matters this time is not the headline number 9.92M, but how many tokens truly become sellable after September 6 特朗普宣布拿下委内瑞拉650亿桶石油多数控制权 号称史上最大石油交易 消息一出市场反应克制 因为委内瑞拉基建老化 石油设施需要数十亿美元 数年时间才能恢复产能 短期增产不现实 这是期货不是现货 市场定价的是当下供需 不是十年后的产能$CL 盘面上 CL在84.47附近横盘 MACD零轴钝化 KDJ中性偏强 方向不明 但资金面才是关键 链上第二大空头今天09:01认亏14万美金平掉空单 10分钟后在85.19反手开多551万美金 这位累计盈利24.6万美金的老手直接告诉你 这个位置空头开始心虚了 清算地图看 85.5附近多空清算强度均衡 上方86.5是第一压力 突破看87.66到88.73 下方84.34是日内支撑 失守则回踩82到83 策略 85附近试多 目标85.5到86.5 若跌破84.5则反手短空 目标83.5到82.4 巨鲸已经用真金白银投票了 你信故事还是信仓位#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解
Many people look at ETH and only focus on one thing:
ETH/BTC.
But I believe what we should really look at is whether ETH has become the “second choice” in institutional allocations.
Currently, ETH’s market cap is close to $300 billion, with a market share of about 11%. Recently, there has been a significant inflow of funds into the US spot ETH ETFs, with related products absorbing about $185 million in a single day on August 21.
This actually signifies a change.
In the past, when institutions entered the crypto market, the first step was to buy BTC.
Now, more and more capital is asking:
Besides BTC, is there a second asset that truly has network effects, asset scale, and an application ecosystem?
The answer is still highly concentrated on ETH.
So the biggest logic behind ETH is not a “catch-up rally.”
A catch-up rally means the market ends once the rally ends.
ETH is now trying to complete an identity upgrade:
From the “second largest cryptocurrency” to the “second institutional-grade digital asset.”
If this identity is truly established, ETH’s future valuation method may no longer just follow BTC’s ups and downs but will have its own capital cycle.从链上数据来看，比特币在83000至86000美元区间积累了约103万枚的潜在抛压，这些筹码主要来自上一轮周期的长期持有者。对于这部分群体而言，价格若能重新回到该区域，便意味着接近回本或小幅盈利，因此他们选择在反弹途中分批了结的可能性较高，这也就形成了上方一道实打实的供给墙。 当前盘面若要延续升势，现货端必须展现出足够的承接力，否则价格很容易在触及该区间时被反复压制。与此同时，合约市场的空头持仓也是推动价格上涨的重要变量——只有出现较大规模的空头被迫平仓，形成强制买入力量，价格才有望在现货接筹的同时获得额外动能。换句话说，这轮行情的持续性与高度，并不完全取决于多头意愿，更取决于空头是否愿意在高位“配合”。 从操盘节奏来看，主力目前更倾向于用横盘震荡来消化抛压，而非直接暴力拉升。这种“以时间换空间”的手法，一方面可以让长期持有者在相对平稳的环境中逐步出货，另一方面也能在震荡过程中不断诱捕追空的资金，借空头止损的力量来托住价格。可以说，这是当下资金面条件下较为省力的选择，但隐患同样存在——震荡幅度是否会进一步扩大，完全取决于主力手中可调动的资金是否足够充裕。一旦资金吃紧，横盘可能演变为阴跌$XAU
Gold plummets $200! Large bearish candle shakeout, don't blindly cut losses
⚠️Risk warning: This is only a market opinion exchange and does not constitute investment advice. Contract trading carries extremely high risk, please control your position size.
Chart of XAUUSDT perpetual 1-hour timeframe shows two rounds of devastating sell-offs:
First round: rapid dump from the high of 4634, crashing below 4500;
After a brief consolidation between 4450-4480, the second round broke down further, hitting a low of 4405, current price 4428.3.
MACD death cross downward, bearish momentum releasing intensively, a large number of leveraged contracts liquidated.
Many think this plunge is due to Fed rate hikes, but that is not the case.
The Fed's statements did not clearly indicate a rate hike or cut, and they scrapped forward guidance altogether. Just raising rate hike expectations caused market panic and a stampede.
The US is now trapped in a debt deadlock:
Tax hikes, spending cuts, rate cuts, and rate hikes—all four paths are blocked, with national debt surpassing 40 trillion. The market hopes AI technology will boost the economy and dilute debt, but AI is a long-term "pre-sale" with a 10-year cycle, and short-term returns cannot be realized.
In contrast, gold is a tangible "ready property," not relying on anyone's credit promises.
Global central banks continue large-scale gold purchases, increasing holdings by 288 tons last quarter, a 60% year-on-year surge.
Retail investors: panic stop-loss after seeing $200 drop
Investment banks: repeatedly calculating rate hike probabilities
Central banks: continue hoarding gold in the spot market
Short-term candlesticks are the weather; debt fundamentals are the terrain. Weather changes, but terrain is hard to alter.
Key levels on the chart
🔹Resistance: 4480-4520 (first layer of trapped resistance), strong resistance at 4634
🔹Support: 4405 (this round's low, core defense level)
Short-term trend is weak, don't rush to bottom-fish. Wait for support confirmation or a breakout and stable hold above resistance before acting.
Two signals must appear simultaneously for the bull logic to truly fail:
1. AI productivity data is genuinely reflected in official statistics
2. US Treasury yields autonomously fall and stabilize
Before that, most big drops are emotion-driven shakeouts.
💬 Interaction: Holding long-term funds, do you choose AI long-term expectations or gold for hedging? Let's discuss in the comments.
#黄金 #XAUUSDT #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The next AI earnings test is less about confirming compute demand and more about measuring its breadth. Dell on Sep 1, followed by Broadcom and Snowflake on Sep 2, should offer a useful cross-section of servers, custom chips, networking and cloud data.
My read: durable sector support requires more than strong orders at one layer. Growth that also converts into profit, cash flow and steadier software revenue would make the broader valuation case more credible. If strength remains concentrated in chips, the AI cycle may still be robust, but its benefits will look narrower. Not advice, just analysis.
#BroadcomDellAIResultsBrothers, it's Monday, and liquidity returned as soon as the US stock market opened.
$BTC surged up to 79387 before being slammed down, with a low of 76916. This wave is just the emotional release after the US stock market opened. The ETF broke a nine-day inflow streak and lost 200 million dollars on Friday, plus the sell orders accumulated over the low-liquidity weekend suddenly flooded out. It's normal to have a little pullback after nine consecutive days of inflows, don't panic. The support below for BTC is 76600-77000. My long position remains unchanged with an order at 75555 waiting to be filled; I'll enter if it hits, otherwise forget it. The upper target is still 79200-80000.
$ETH dropped quite hard this wave, with a high of 2534 and a low directly down to 2386. The Ethereum spot ETF is still seeing inflows, with about 100 million dollars net inflow for the tenth consecutive day, but it can't resist the overall market pullback, plus the negative sentiment from Cronos being attacked dragged down the entire ETH ecosystem. However, the ETH/BTC position has reached a critical breakout point. Once the market stabilizes, there is still a chance for an independent rally. I continue to hold my long position, planning to buy on a dip at 2400-2405 with a stop loss at 2375.
$SOL fell the hardest today, dropping from 107.46 straight down to 100.20, losing over 4 points. The positive news of Goldman Sachs holding positions couldn't stop the market pullback, plus the competitive narrative brought by Robinhood Chain and Ethereum L2 caused short-term funds to exit. However, SOL's governance upgrade and deflationary logic remain intact, and the V1 trading system launch on the 9th is still on the way. I have an order placed at 98-99 waiting to buy.I believe the key for $SOL this time is not short-term sentiment, but a change in the supply logic. After the governance vote passed the dual deflation proposal, the future supply of SOL will decrease, effectively reducing inflationary pressure by one notch. What's even more remarkable is that this is happening while the ecosystem is still hot: there is demand attention, and the supply side is tightening again. The market's pricing of SOL is likely to no longer just follow thematic rotations but will re-evaluate its scarcity. I wouldn't interpret this as an instant positive, but if the momentum continues, SOL has the chance to enter a new round of value reassessment. My judgment leans positive; the core depends on whether the expectation of reduced supply can sustain trading, rather than just a one-day hype.#Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
Let me tell you the honest truth from my mid-term intelligence perspective: this week is packed with employment data—ADP, JOLTS, initial claims, and non-farm payrolls closing the show. It looks lively, but the measuring stick has already been changed by Wash.
Brother Jackson Hole was very straightforward: inflation hasn't truly dropped, the 2% target is fixed, forward guidance is gone, only "discipline" is given, no GPS. Previously, the market played the "poor employment → rate cut" reflex arc, but this time it doesn't work. In his mind, 4.1% employment is considered sufficient, as long as there are no hiring freezes or layoffs, unless non-farm payrolls approach zero or turn negative, or unemployment jumps above 4.2%, he won't stop being hawkish.
As long as employment doesn't collapse drastically, Wash has the confidence to keep talking tough; the probability of a rate hike in September is nearly 60% and still holding; only if the data is really bad will it give the market a chance to ease.
Don't get swayed by single-week fluctuations in the mid-term; focus on the slopes of core PCE, oil prices, and unemployment rate—these three lines are more useful than guessing the non-farm numbers.
My conclusion: employment data is a thermometer, Wash has recalibrated the scale, if you still read it by the old red line, you'll end up eating noodles.
$BTC
$ETH Next week, OPN, HYPE, SUI, ENA, and EIGEN will unlock nearly $100 million in concentrated tokens, yet BTC violently surged and triggered liquidations late at night — is this a signal that the bull market continues, or a prelude to whales selling off on good news?
These two events might be part of the same scheme. The late-night surge triggered liquidations, with BTC jumping from 77,500 to 79,120 and ETH rising from 2,460 to 2,520 — short-term shorts were wiped out, and market sentiment instantly reversed. But the real undercurrent is the large-scale token unlock next week. Although HYPE’s $70 million unlock accounts for only 0.1%, the absolute amount is significant; the real risk lies with OPN unlocking 10% of its circulating supply, as projects with poor liquidity are easily crushed.
The late-night pump might be designed to create better selling prices for the unlocked tokens — first triggering a short squeeze to create FOMO, then distributing the unlocked tokens at a high price. If this script plays out, those chasing longs will be the last bag holders. You can follow the short-term move, but be quick in and out; don’t get attached to the fight.
Are you chasing the late-night pump, or waiting for the unlock sell-off to hit a low before acting?
$BTC $ETH $OPN $BTC did not continue straight up after surging to $81,000, currently stuck in a high-level consolidation between $77,000 and $80,000.
Since rising from around $63,000 in August, the monthly gain is still close to 30%, outperforming gold, the Nasdaq, and the S&P; however, the $80,000 level has been repeatedly tested and lost, indicating the market has shifted from a short squeeze acceleration to profit digestion and waiting for macro validation.
What has truly changed is who it moves with. Grayscale data shows Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has risen from near zero at the start of the year to over 50%, with a 30-day window even reaching 0.81; meanwhile, its correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, and with the US Dollar Index it has moved to around -0.86.
It currently does not resemble high-beta tech stocks but rather trades like a scarce hard asset.
Behind this is the same macro logic: the total US debt has crossed $40 trillion, the Treasury is increasing long-term bond buybacks, the dollar is weakening, and fiat credit hedging flows are returning. Gold moves first, Bitcoin follows, marking a restart of devaluation trades rather than internal hype within the crypto community.
Stronger linkage does not mean they will always rise and fall together. Gold has low volatility and is a steadier safe haven; Bitcoin is more elastic and more easily disrupted by leverage and risk appetite.
This week’s dense employment data releases and the still-to-be-tested hawkish stance of the Fed will affect interest rate and dollar expectations, which will loosen correlations again. If $80,000 cannot hold, the high-level consolidation will extend; if gold strengthens further and the dollar continues to weaken, this consolidation is more likely to become a stepping stone for the next breakout. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Basecat saw $1.1 million in buying in a single day, Coinbase inflows accelerated—will Basecat shift the trend toward Base? Let's take a look at the data! Data changes for the top 40 holding addresses as of August 31, 2026 #Basecat 1: Uniswap: Outflow 43.22% Mexc: Outflow 6.83% Coinbase: Inflow 29.19% 2: Top 40 individual addresses: 6 reduced positions, 6 increased positions, 11 new entries $Basecat Daily key summary: After 4 days of accumulation, single kills once again counted Basecat. Now let's look at the overall data. Coinbase inflows have accelerated compared to before. Among the top 40, 6 people reduced their positions, 3 transferred out tokens, and 3 actually reduced positions. The reduction amount was moderate. Among the top 40, 6 people increased their positions, 3 transferred to other addresses, and 3 added positions on-chain, but the number of increases was very small. Compared to last time, 11 newcomers entered the top 40, with a total purchase of about $1.1 million. Among them, well-known meme player Unipcs bought $450,000, and 6 addresses were new buyers. Two addresses saw normal ranking increases, and three addresses transferred in from other addresses. Of the 11 who dropped out, 6 reduced their positions and dropped out of the rankings, while 5 completely sold out. That's roughly the data. Let's briefly analyze and break it down: this is the rally$BTC is currently in a high-level consolidation phase after a sharp surge
In the early session, it just pulled back but did not break below last Friday's low near 76800
Entered a light long position to test the waters, short-term focus is on whether it can break through around 79500
News#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults 一年前这个时候，市场还在以99.3%的概率押注9月降息25个基点。 现在呢？ CME显示今年加息两次概率超50%。 从降息共识到加息共识，只用了一个「沃什时代」。 9月15-16日FOMC会议之前，三股力量正在做最后的博弈。 🔥 第一股力量：加息派（CME + 法巴 + FOMC 3名委员） CME「美联储观察」最新数据：9月维持利率不变概率43.1%，累计加息25个基点概率56.9%。 美联储到10月维持利率不变概率29.3%，累计加息25个基点概率52.5%，累计加息50个基点概率18.3%。 9月加息概率从8月21日的39.9%飙升至57%。 7月FOMC已有3名委员支持加息25bp。内部裂痕在扩大。 法国巴黎银行预计12月起连续加息三次。 这不是猜测，这是市场在用真金白银下注。 ❄️ 第二股力量：按兵不动派（Polymarket 4个聪明钱） Polymarket上，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为52%，加息25个基点的概率为48%，该合约交易额已超过6660万美元。 注意一个细节：4个地址投入$10.54万，押注"9月后利率上限不变"，平均买入概率58.9%，低于当前63.Guys, who's the coolest guy today? $UNI（Uniswap） 。 On August 31, UNI briefly broke through $5.4, setting a new high since January 2026. In the past 24 hours, it rose more than 13%, with daily turnover reaching $600 million and open interest surging to $250 million to $400 million. But in June this year, UNI was only $2.31. In three months, it more than doubled. Why did UNI suddenly become so aggressive? First, the valuation logic has completely changed. What was UNI's biggest weakness before? Uniswap earned hundreds of millions to over a billion dollars in fees a year, while UNI holders didn't get a single cent—except for voting, they had no use. In December 2025, UNI's tokenomics reform plan was approved, with two core tasks: burning 100 million UNI+ to activate protocol fee switches. As of August 31, about 110 million tokens had been burned, with a total burn value of $630 million. Over 150,000 tokens burned in a single day set a record. For every fee Uniswap earned, it would buy UNI on the market and burn it. From "air coins" to "cash flow tokens." Second, Robinhood Chain brought incremental traffic to traditional finance. In July this year, Robinhood Chain's mainnet launched, and Uniswap was the core AMM from day one. In the past 24 hours, revenue was $4.29 million, accounting for nearly half of Robinhood Chain's fee revenue. Stock token daily trading volume was $130 million, a tenfold increase in a month. Traditional stocksDropped 4000 points in three days, how much is a word from Warsh worth?
📝 Main text
On Monday, BTC fell below 78000. Just three days ago, it was above 81000.
From Wednesday to Sunday, Bitcoin dropped nearly 5%, wiping out most of last week's gains. The reason is just one — Warsh said one sentence at Jackson Hole: "If underlying inflation does not clearly and quickly fall back, the Fed still has work to do."
The market translated "still has work to do" into the probability of a rate hike in September rising from 35% to over 60%. Then BTC plunged from 81500 to 77000.
Someone asked me, is this really bad news? I don't think so, this is a reset of expectations. Rate hikes are not news; the market fears "uncertainty." Warsh gave a relatively clear signal: if inflation doesn't come down, I will act. With the direction clear, funds actually know how to position themselves.
Now, a few situations I've observed:
First, someone is taking over. Although ETFs had a slight net outflow on Thursday and Friday, the whole week still saw a net inflow of over 900 million, and Ethereum ETFs continue to attract funds. Institutions haven't fled; they're just adjusting positions.
Second, derivatives are deleveraging. In the past 24 hours, liquidations reached 150 million USD, mostly longs. The rise was too fast before; now washing out leverage is good for the future, but the process is painful.
Third, a critical level is near. BTC is around 77000; if this level doesn't hold, the next support is at 75000. But the weekend's low-volume decline without panic selling shows bulls haven't given up yet. ETH and SOL fell in sync; ETH is at the edge of 2400, SOL at 101, both previous breakout levels.
What I want to say is: this is not panic, it's a correction. Warsh's speech is important, but if there really is a rate hike in September, the market has already been digesting it in advance. Once the sentiment is fully released, what should come back will come back.
My approach now is simple: no adding positions, no cutting losses, no guessing the bottom. Wait until BTC returns above 78000 before making moves.
Brothers, did you get swept out this round? Let's chat in the comments👇#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Employment data will be released intensively this week, putting Waller's hawkish tone from last Friday's Jackson Hole under a tough test.
Waller painted a very optimistic picture of the labor market: unemployment rate at 4.1%, initial jobless claims four-week average near multi-decade lows, labor market "consistent with full employment"; the real issue lies with prices—PCE year-over-year at 3.7%, annualized near 4.1% over the past six months, with inflation running above 2% for 65 consecutive months.
His conclusion is straightforward: financial conditions are not restrictive, prices are the current top priority; if core inflation does not "clear and fall fast enough," the Fed "still has work to do." The market immediately raised the probability of a September rate hike to nearly 60%.
The official numbers he used to support the "no worries on employment" stance are themselves loosening. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, May and June combined were revised down by 103,000; last Friday's annual benchmark revision further cut employment through March by 79,000. The "frozen market" of low hiring and low layoffs, combined with labor force participation falling to a five-year low, looks more like weak supply and demand rather than overheating.
This week is the confrontation window: Tuesday JOLTS vacancies, Wednesday ADP, Thursday initial claims, Friday August nonfarm payrolls. If data continue to weaken and wages do not rise, Waller's narrative of "employment is met, just focus on inflation" will crack—not immediately forcing him to turn dovish, but weakening the justification for action in September. If there is a rebound accompanied by wage growth, it will perfectly confirm his framework: employment is not a constraint, and there is still room for rate hikes. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Anthropic received $8 billion from Amazon and $2 billion from Google, and before the cheers have died down, the computing power bills might crush it.
Not to pour cold water.
Imagine—what's it like when your landlord is also your creditor?
💡 An overlooked structural fact
Amazon has cumulatively committed about $8 billion in investment to Anthropic, and Google has committed $2 billion. Both are also its most important computing power suppliers.
Anthropic has signed multi-year, tens-of-billions-of-dollars computing power procurement contracts with AWS and Google Cloud.
This is no coincidence; it's the industry standard. Leading AI labs almost all sit on the knees of cloud providers—the money comes from the cloud providers, and so do the machines. 🏠 Like tenants who also owe debts to their landlord, the rent amount and whether it increases all depend on the landlord's mood.
📊 The first curtain the S-1 will lift
The market is now focused on valuation multiples: 1 trillion, 2 trillion, 3 trillion. These numbers talk about the future.
But what the prospectus will reveal is how much computing power costs eat into revenue. This directly determines whether the gross margin can emerge.
The so-called unit economics—how much net profit is made for every dollar of model service sold.
Amazon and Google are both shareholders and suppliers, so their bargaining power is naturally limited. Pricing terms are written into the S-1 and cannot be hidden.
🔗 Not just Anthropic's problem
All leading AI labs sit in the same structure: cloud providers are simultaneously shareholders and suppliers.
OpenAI relies on Microsoft Azure, Anthropic relies on AWS and Google Cloud. Cloud providers are both financiers and the only sellers capable of providing large-scale computing power.
This means—every dollar of gross profit AI companies earn, a portion flows back to the cloud providers' pockets as "computing power fees."
📖 Which three pages should the secondary market flip to
When the S-1 is released on September 7, don't rush to look at valuation multiples.
Go straight to these three pages:
• Revenue gross margin—the proportion of computing power costs to revenue
• Cash burn rate—whether the burn rate can sustain until breakeven
• Top five customer concentration—whether revenue is held hostage by a few large customers or dispersed
These three pages of numbers are more honest than any TAM story.
🎯 No matter how big AI company valuations are talked up, the computing power unit economics in the S-1 are the true touchstone.
$ANTHROPIC When the S-1 is released on September 7, don't rush to look at valuation multiples; go straight to the computing power cost page.
#Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 $BTC$BTC still controls the overall direction, but market funds are quietly shifting their focus to $ETH. The latest data shows that on August 28, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $219 million, ending a nine-day inflow streak; Meanwhile, the ETH ETF recorded a net inflow of about $102 million that day, extending the inflow streak to 10 days. This may signal a capital rotation worth watching: 🟠 BTC → continues to serve as a market liquidity and trend anchor 🔵. ETH → ETF demand is increasing, and capital attention keeps rising 🔄. BTC stability + ETH relative strengthening→ Counterfeit market activity may further rebound. I am now focusing on the relative strength of BTC/ETH. If BTC can hold near $77K and ETH breaks above $2.5K again, the next round of capital rotation may happen faster than the market expects. 👀 Don't just look at price fluctuations; what's truly worth tracking is where the money is flowing #BTC #ETH #Crypto #ETF #Bitcoin #Ethereum #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelationThis wave of a major rebound starting from 62,000 owes a large part of its success to improved expectations of overseas liquidity. U.S. Treasury yields declined, the dollar weakened, driving Bitcoin and gold to strengthen simultaneously, with continuous large net inflows into spot ETFs pushing the price above 80,000.
However, the market will not move unilaterally forward indefinitely. Recently, U.S. Treasury yields have fluctuated, and market disagreements over subsequent data have increased. Once economic data exceeds expectations and leans strong, rate cut expectations will be delayed, liquidity expectations will quickly cool down, and Bitcoin will face correction pressure.
Institutional funds are not buying nonstop either. After several consecutive days of large inflows, recent inflow scale has noticeably shrunk, with occasional single-day outflows, indicating internal disagreements within institutions and no longer a unanimous bullish view.
On-chain data shows a large number of short-term holders are unlocking profits at high levels, transferring chips to exchanges for profit-taking. Those who acquired chips at low levels are cashing in on the rebound, while late-entering retail investors take over the chips. This chip exchange at high levels inherently increases the probability of volatility and correction.
Many people now have two kinds of thoughts: one believes liquidity easing has arrived and blindly goes all-in bullish; the other sees a slight correction and immediately judges the rebound is over. Both approaches are prone to pitfalls.
Spot holders: Do not continue to add large positions at high levels; if there are floating profits, you can take partial profits in batches and keep a base position to observe key support. If support holds, continue holding; if support is effectively broken, reduce positions.
Empty position friends: Do not rush to bottom-fish; wait for data to be released and for the market to show stabilization signals before acting.
Contract players: Macro data cycles are very volatile; try to use high leverage sparingly, and if you don’t understand, stay out and observe.
$BTC Meta's massive privacy lawsuit settlement clears residual regulatory risks, boosting market risk appetite and driving $META valuation recovery, but the core current conflict remains the trade-off between high AI computing power CapEx spending and free cash flow pressure.
After the lawsuit settlement, the stock price rose instead of falling, indicating institutional funds are accounting the settlement as a one-time financial clearance; with legal risk discount eliminated, position allocation begins to tilt back toward the core business fundamentals.
The first key factor driving valuation reconstruction is the restoration of systemic risk appetite brought by the resolution of regulatory uncertainty; the second is the cash flow supported by improved conversion rates of advertising recommendation algorithms empowered by the open-source Llama ecosystem; the third factor is the narrowing losses in metaverse hardware.
The bullish scenario triggers when macro risk appetite continues and advertising business cash flow consistently covers computing power investment. If subsequent AI computing infrastructure deployment efficiency exceeds expectations, strong advertising monetization capability will drive positions to concentrate from defensive tech stocks to high-beta tech leaders.
The failure signal for this upside scenario is a secondary upgrade of antitrust policies or substantial regulatory obstacles to the commercialization path of open-source models.
The bearish scenario triggers when CapEx spending excessively suppresses mid-term free cash flow. If AI infrastructure investment fails to bring corresponding incremental advertising conversion in the short term, institutions will reduce position allocations with high valuation premiums.
Has the market fully digested the dilution effect of mid-term computing power investment on cash flow?
In the next 7 days, focus on observing the direction of institutional position rebalancing in block trades and changes in AI infrastructure CapEx budget guidance.
#Stripe财团据报退出，PayPal收跌近13% #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验Whether BTC can provide a chance to buy on the dip entirely depends on whether Americans find jobs next week.
There is fear that employment might be too strong, giving the Federal Reserve a reason to actually raise interest rates, with institutions taking the opportunity to sell; and fear that employment might be too weak, making the market worry about economic collapse, with cash being king.
The ideal scenario is that nonfarm payrolls increase between 40,000 and 80,000, and the unemployment rate honestly stays around the expected 4.1%. Neither overheating nor crashing, giving funds a reason to continue buying.
This week is like a high-intensity exam week: Tuesday looks at job openings, Wednesday at the small nonfarm payrolls, and Friday waits for the nonfarm payrolls.
Don’t rush to enter the market; wait for these days to fully digest the interest rate hike signals, and decide whether to act after clearly seeing the reaction at key price levels.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC $ETH Night Before Nonfarm: 4 Numbers That Decide Your Friday Fate
BTC just surged to $79,000 at midnight, then dropped to $77,000 by morning
Friday's Nonfarm may be the final piece in the puzzle for a September rate hike. At this point, staying alive is more important than making money.
Three scenarios👇
Scenario A: Nonfarm > 80,000
Rate hike probability soars above 70%. BTC may retest $75,000 or even $72,000.
Scenario B: Nonfarm 30,000-60,000
Meets expectations or slightly weak. Market fluctuates with unclear direction. This is the most torturous.
Scenario C: Nonfarm < 30,000
Rate hike probability plummets. BTC may violently rebound to above $82,000. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 ZEC continues to outperform the market today, but I won't chase it now.
The mainstream market logic is simple: ZCSH has landed on NYSE Arca, institutional access is open, the privacy sector is being repriced, so ZEC can still rise.
I only agree with this logic halfway.
My judgment is: the biggest risk for ZEC now is not whether the ETF will be launched, but whether leverage has already outpaced real buying demand.
Currently, BTC is around $78,000, ETH about $2,450, SOL about $105, with only slight overall gains; ZEC, however, remains near $830–840, up about 5% in 24 hours, showing clear relative strength.
Moreover, ZCSH has officially launched, so the ETF positive factor has shifted from "expectation" to "fact." Buying ZEC now is essentially trading on how much new demand the ETF can still bring in the future.
I am more focused on the leverage structure.
Support is seen around $790. If it quickly falls back there, some high-leverage longs may be forced to exit.
Resistance is around $870–880. If it can break through with volume and funding rates are not overheated simultaneously, I am more willing to believe a second phase of the trend is starting.
So my plan is simple:
No chasing near $840.
If it pulls back to $800–810 with support, I will reassess.
If it breaks through $870–880 and holds, I accept buying a bit higher for confirmation.
If it falls below $790 and fails to recover, I will consider the strong structure to be breaking down.
I am not bearish on ZEC now; on the contrary, I am still slightly bullish.$UNI 突然启动了 这次背后的逻辑比以前更强 UNI今天一度上涨超过 16%，价格重新来到5美元附近，我觉得这一轮不能只当成普通的山寨补涨。 现在Uniswap最大的变化，是协议收入终于开始真正和UNI挂钩。 从去年底开启协议费机制以后，部分交易手续费会进入链上机制并最终销毁UNI；最近v4和更多链也开始加入。过去90天已经有大约 464万枚UNI被永久销毁。 同时最近代币化股票交易量快速增长，Uniswap一周增加了约 3.25亿美元相关交易量，Robinhood Chain上线不到两个月，通过Uniswap产生的累计交易量已经超过200亿美元。 所以现在的UNI和以前已经有点不一样了。 交易量越大，协议费越高，$UNI 销毁就越多。 如果接下来真的进入DeFi和山寨行情，我觉得UNI这种有基本面、有流动性，又开始出现通缩逻辑的老牌币，反而很容易重新被资金盯上。 📌 Title
Dropped 4000 points in three days, how much is a word from Waller worth?
📝 Content
On Monday, BTC fell below 78,000. Just three days ago, it was still above 81,000.
From Wednesday to Sunday, Bitcoin dropped nearly 5%, wiping out most of last week's gains. The reason is just one — Waller said one sentence at Jackson Hole: "If underlying inflation does not clearly and quickly fall back, the Fed still has work to do."
The market translated "still has work to do" into a September rate hike probability rising from 35% to over 60%. Then BTC plunged from 81,500 to 77,000.
Someone asked me, is this really bearish? I don't think so; this is a reset of expectations. Rate hikes are not news; the market fears "uncertainty." Waller gave a relatively clear signal: if inflation doesn't come down, I will act. With direction clear, funds actually know how to position themselves.
Now, a few situations I’ve observed:
First, some are stepping in. Although ETFs had a slight net outflow on Thursday and Friday, the whole week still saw over 900 million net inflow, and Ethereum ETFs continue to attract capital. Institutions haven’t fled; they’re just adjusting positions.
Second, derivatives are deleveraging. In the past 24 hours, liquidations reached $150 million, mostly longs. The rise was too fast before; now washing out leverage is good for the future, though the process is painful.
Third, a critical level is near. BTC is around 77,000; if this level doesn’t hold, the next support is at 75,000. But the weekend’s low-volume decline without panic selling shows bulls haven’t given up. ETH and SOL are falling in sync, ETH near 2,400, SOL near 101, both previous breakout levels.
What I want to say is: this is not panic, it’s a correction. Waller’s speech is important, but if September rate hikes really happen, the market is already digesting it in advance. Once emotions settle, what should come back will come back.
My current approach is simple: no adding positions, no cutting losses, no guessing the bottom. Wait for BTC to return above 78,000 before making moves.
Brothers, did you get swept out this round? Let’s chat in the comments👇#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK $BTC $ETH $SOL 🚨 TONIGHT’S $BTC PUMP ISN’T ABOUT WAR — THE MARKET IS TELLING US SOMETHING BIGGER.
I went back and checked the information behind tonight’s move. At first glance, it looks like a risk-off rotation, with Bitcoin breaking higher as the market treats it like “digital gold.”💎
But there’s one problem with that narrative:
Gold didn’t see the same kind of capital flow.💵
So I’m not convinced this pump is simply because of the so-called🥏$SNDK (Medium-term strong, short-term overheated):
AI storage super cycle + 93.9 billion long-term support logic, but it has moved far from the 5-day moving average. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to 1400–1450 before scaling in.
$SPCX (Bearish bias, avoid catching a falling knife):
Retraced and consolidated sideways from the previous high of 149–150, compounded by two rounds of lock-up releases on 8/6 and 8/20 putting pressure, shrinking volume, and weakening MACD. Short-term support is expected at 140.
$SKHY (Wrongly punished by macro factors):
HBM's top player fundamentals remain intact. Today's decline is purely due to the Fed's hawkish stance (September rate hike probability rising from 35% to 60%), dragging it down. Wait for rate hike expectations to cool off and a pullback to 150–155 (ADR) before positioning more securely.Brothers, waking up this morning and seeing this market, are you confused?
The celebration of just breaking through 80,000 dollars hasn't even warmed up, and Bitcoin just plunged headfirst, directly losing 78,000, hitting a low of 76,989. It's now around 77,700. Many people ask: Is this a bull retracement, or is the bull market over?
Don't rush. As a veteran who has been cut countless times in the crypto circle, today I'll break down the three layers of logic behind this drop.
First layer: The most direct trigger — the Federal Reserve suddenly changed its stance
On the surface, it looks like the US military airstrike on Iraq's Al-Faw Peninsula this morning caused oil prices to soar to 90 dollars. But that's just a catalyst. The real core is Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Warsh clearly said inflation is "still too high," and if it doesn't fall fast enough, further rate hikes are not ruled out. The market exploded instantly — the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% directly to 56.9%, once nearing 60%. The two-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.32%.
When the word "rate hike" is back on the table, all risk assets must first kneel in respect. Bitcoin? It's just the one that kneeled the fastest. $BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Wang Duanniao is betting big on $OKB this time, could it really be about to make a killing? 👀
In August 2025, OKEx will burn about 65.26 million OKB tokens in one go and permanently cap the total supply at 21 million, directly mirroring Bitcoin's 21 million cap.
But what’s truly worth paying attention to is not just the "scarcity" factor.
OKB’s role is shifting from a simple platform token to becoming the core on-chain asset of the X Layer. Whether it’s on-chain transfers, DeFi, RWA, staking, or ecosystem project interactions, all could generate real demand for OKB.
Before, the focus was on how much the exchange would buy back after making profits; now, what matters more is whether X Layer actually has real users and capital inflows.
Next, keep a close eye on three variables:
1️⃣ Whether X Layer has projects that are truly up and running
2️⃣ Whether there is sustained real capital inflow
3️⃣ Whether the regulatory environment suddenly tightens
If the ecosystem really becomes active, the scarcity of 21 million tokens will further amplify the demand logic.
But if it’s just hype and no real on-chain usage, then no matter how scarce it is, it’s just "paper scarcity."
In the end, one sentence: don’t just look at the burn, look at real usage. 🔥《江枫交易策略日记》第三十六期 上周五 8月28日，美联储主席沃什明确强调：通胀仍然过高，2%的通胀目标不会改变。他给出的数据也比较关键：美国PCE同比约3.7%，核心通胀同样明显高于2%的目标，而且沃什认为目前金融环境并没有明显达到限制性水平！ 市场对于9月加息的预期已经明显上升，CME 美联储观察最新数据显示概率约为 63%，这也是为什么BTC从81000附近快速回落到77000 的原因之一。 上周五比特币 ETF 开始结束为期 9 日的净流入，转为净流出 2.019 亿美元，这也为下跌推波助澜，本周也需重点关注 ETF 后续的资金动向！ 江枫有幸搭乘两次顺风车，第一次第 34 期 BTC80800 和 81400 附近的空，以及 35 期交易日记中的 79300 附近的空，现都一一完成第一目标 77000 附近， ETH 第 34 期 从 2515～2600 的空、和 35 期交易日记中的 2485～2535 附近的空，现都一一完成第一目标！ 但是并不意味着两次空单都完美把握，就等于后续行情就真的一路下跌了，其中是存在诸多不确定因素的，后续的 ETF 资金是否会持续流出？美联储是Eric Trump: The main drivers driving Bitcoin's rise are no longer retail investors. $BTC The market structure may have truly changed. Eric Trump recently said something very direct about BTC: "The tides have turned." He means that in the past, Bitcoin was largely driven by retail investors, but now the real forces influencing prices are increasingly shifting to institutions. 1. From a "retail bull market" to a "institutional bull market" Eric Trump believes that many institutions that used to question crypto have clearly changed their attitudes over the past year. ETFs, corporate holdings, professional capital, and clearer regulatory environments have all deepened institutional involvement. He himself revealed that he previously established Bitcoin positions in the range of just over $50,000 to just over $60,000. 2. Is institutional entry good or bad for Bitcoin? The benefits are easy to understand. Institutional funds are larger, holding cycles are usually longer, and Bitcoin's legitimacy and mainstream acceptance will increase. But the other side is also interesting: Bitcoin initially emphasized breaking away from the traditional financial system, but now the largest incremental capital is increasingly coming from Wall Street. So the more successful the institutionalization, the more Bitcoin may become a traditional financial asset. 3. The future Bitcoin bull market may be different from before Eric Trump is still BiMusk said SpaceX's revenue might reach Morgan Stanley's forecast seven years early, and the market hasn't fully priced this in, which is quite interesting.
In the past, whenever Musk spoke, many people automatically discounted the vision. But now that SpaceX has reached this scale, the story is increasingly hard to sustain on imagination alone. Starlink, launches, government contracts, AI data centers—each segment can tell a big story, but each ultimately has to come down to cash flow.
I think the secondary market has become more realistic now: it can give SpaceX a high valuation, but it won't pay indefinitely for a "future that must happen." Especially when AI is stuffed into every growth model, investors start asking a rather sobering question: who is paying this revenue, and who keeps the profit?
The vision is still very captivating, but the books won't be moved by passion.
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 $BTC should not be simply defined as a high-level consolidation after a sharp rise; currently, it is a differentiation window of intense long-short logic battles.
Price dipped early in the session, holding last Friday's low at 76800, lightly testing longs aiming for a breakout at 79500. This idea seems reasonable, but holding the previous low does not necessarily mean a bullish counterattack. There are many false supports within the consolidation range, and a small rebound can easily lure in longs.
We break down the three layers of the battle logic again:
🔴 Macro level: The Jackson Hole event was hawkish, raising expectations for a September rate hike. U.S. Treasuries and the dollar strengthened. This bearish factor is not a short-term one-time shock; subsequent data will repeatedly tug the market, suppressing upside space.
🟡 Institutional funds should not be judged only by impressive monthly data. The end of continuous ETF inflows and the first large net outflow are warning signals. Massive monthly inflows only represent the past; funds have begun to cash out and exit. You cannot predict future trends based on past capital dividends.
🟢 Geopolitical safe-haven support exists but is highly unstable. Once U.S.-Iran tensions ease, safe-haven buying will quickly withdraw, and this layer of Bitcoin support can disappear at any time; the correlation between gold and BTC is not permanently fixed.
In summary: Holding the low only represents a temporary short-term halt in the decline, not the start of a rebound. In high-level consolidation, supports can break at any time. When testing longs, strict stop-losses must be applied; do not blindly go long relying solely on support levels and past capital data.
Question: Is holding the low this time a short-term rebound opportunity or a trap before a second dip?
⚠️ For opinion sharing only, not investment advice
#BTC high-level long-short tug-of-war, gold correlation strengthens $BTCThe more I look at Broadcom, the more I feel it is the most easily underestimated company in this AI wave.
When people talk about AI, the first reactions are still Nvidia $NVDA, OpenAI $OPENAI, but the big companies are now spending money on more than just buying GPUs. The larger the model and the higher the inference volume, the greater the data transmission pressure inside data centers. The demand for custom AI chips is also rising, and these two areas happen to be Broadcom's strengths.
One comfortable aspect of Broadcom $AVGO is that it doesn't have to compete head-to-head with Nvidia for business. Big clients like Google and Meta want to make their own ASICs, and Broadcom can help. As AI clusters grow larger and larger, requiring faster switching chips and network connections, Broadcom can still make money. In other words, as big companies continue to increase CapEx, Broadcom is very likely to have a place.
Moreover, what I like about Broadcom is not just the AI story. It has strong semiconductor cash flow itself, and VMware complements it with software, so unlike some pure AI concept stocks that rely on imagination years from now to support valuation, Broadcom currently has real profits, cash flow, and AI orders being fulfilled.
Broadcom's concentration of major clients and AI expectations are risks, but if this round of AI infrastructure investment can continue for several more years, a company like Broadcom that benefits from both custom chips and AI networks while generating its own cash flow is one I am willing to hold for a longer time.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Not really into gossip, but judging from the situation between Sun Ge and Jing Tian, the trend has really changed. This matter is currently a hot headline on mainstream domestic media platforms and continues to ferment.
Who is Sun Ge? A big shot in the crypto circle, a gray market tycoon under border control. In the past, this kind of thing could never have fermented on mainstream domestic media platforms because the demographic of people interested in gossip is basically concentrated between the ages of about ten to forty. Most people's first reaction when seeing this content is "Who is Sun Yuchen?" and "What does he do to make tens of billions of dollars?" When this group learns that Sun Yuchen got rich quickly through the crypto circle, it will inevitably lead some of this gossip group to understand or even enter the crypto circle. Obviously, this is completely contrary to the previous suppression policies.
Not only that, recently I noticed that on Douyin, it was previously impossible to post crypto-related content, or if posted by chance, the views and likes were very few. But recently, the exposure of crypto-related content has increased exponentially, and I often see videos with thousands or even tens of thousands of likes.
Such changes must mean something we don't know is happening.
Or maybe on October 11, most of the existing funds in the circle were really cut off and fresh blood is needed?$BTC chart looks increasingly off?
Now BTC is stuck hovering around 77500, quietly dropping 1.6% in 24 hours. The hawkish risk was supposed to be priced in early, so why is it stuck sideways, neither up nor down?
Could it really be heading down one of these three paths?
Employment data falls below 100,000 coldly, the market directly bets that Walsh won’t dare to hike aggressively, the dollar and US Treasury yields turn down, and BTC directly surges to 82000-83000?
Data stuck between 100,000-150,000 lukewarm, the probability of a September rate hike is exactly split in half, BTC is trapped grinding back and forth between 78000 and 80000, wearing out both bulls and bears?
Employment data suddenly surprises strong, new jobs exceed 180,000 with wage growth, the probability of a rate hike soars above 70%, BTC turns and steps down to 76000-77000, will it probe even deeper?
Now the market assumes nearly 60% chance of a September hike. If this data weakens again, can Walsh’s previously firm "anti-inflation" stance really hold?
Before the non-farm payrolls release, BTC has been grinding high and volatile. Is this sideways movement just shaking out traders, with the real big move waiting for the data to land?
What do you think about this week’s non-farm payrolls? Will BTC surge above 80,000 or crash back to 75,000?
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $ETH #Meta stock rises after massive settlement, risk pricing reassessed
Meta has reached a massive settlement agreement on long-pending privacy and data lawsuits. After the announcement, the stock price rose instead of falling.
The market has shown with real money: the uncertainty boot has landed, which is far more important than paying a one-time financial cost.
This settlement has triggered a valuation reconstruction of Meta in the capital market:
Legal clouds cleared, releasing risk premium: Prolonged regulatory lawsuits have been a heavy shackle suppressing the valuation multiples of tech giants. The settlement allows institutions to reprice the stock purely based on business fundamentals.
Core advertising and AI algorithm moat solidified: Under the empowerment of the open-source Llama ecosystem, the advertising recommendation algorithm has greatly improved advertiser conversion rates. Strong free cash flow is sufficient to easily cover the massive settlement.
Metaverse losses narrowed and focus on computing power: While controlling hardware losses, management is fully betting on AI infrastructure. The commercial monetization path is clearer than ever.
After major legal risks are cleared, do you think Meta can leverage this AI advertising dividend to reclaim the lead among tech stocks?
$META
#Meta #USStocks #TechStocks #ArtificialIntelligence #BusinessInsightsFundamental Research Report $VIRTUAL / Virtuals Protocol (AI/Computing Power) $3.20
Essentially: Virtuals Protocol ($VIRTUAL) overall score 55/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows paid usage traces, and token value capture is realized.
Fundamental breakdown: Virtuals Protocol (token $VIRTUAL), AI/computing power sector. Focuses on AI virtual influencers/Agent Creator. Comparable to FET, TAO. Traditional computing power rental giants are AWS, CoreWeave, charging by GPU hour; A100 monthly rent is $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high threshold. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding; suppliers don’t need centralized approval; idle GPUs become available supply. Customer unit price $50-$500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, paid usage traces exist. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side: address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private/public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem grants are B-level, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo wall are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Virtuals Protocol $3.00B, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. FDV: Virtuals Protocol $4.20B, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Annual revenue: Virtuals Protocol $2.00M, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Virtuals Protocol undisclosed, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Numbers based on public data snapshots; missing parts supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players. In summary: fundamentals solid (score 55/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Continuous monitoring: protocol fees weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. If core financial indicators deviate over 30%, conclusions need reassessment.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitBitcoin falls below 79,000, storage chips rise against the market trend—what kind of change is the market pricing in?
$BTC fell below $79,000, with a nearly 4% drop intraday, and ETH followed suit. Market anxiety is spreading, ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive days, and the greed index has plummeted. However, amid a widespread "risk-off" atmosphere, the storage chip sector has surged unexpectedly: Western Digital rose nearly 2.5%, Micron and SK Hynix followed, and Nvidia bucked the trend with a 1.7% gain.
On the macro level, rate hike expectations hang like the sword of Damocles, with the probability of a September rate hike approaching 60%, and high interest rates continuing to suppress risk asset valuations. On the funding side, the previous continuous net inflows into ETFs have been broken, with institutions choosing to lock in profits amid uncertainty, putting short-term liquidity under pressure.
But the strength in storage reveals an underlying logic decoupled from the macro environment: the AI infrastructure race is pushing storage from a "cyclical commodity" to a "strategic material" narrative. Nvidia's Q2 storage procurement commitments surged 135% quarter-over-quarter, driven by the industry reality of HBM supply shortages and NAND prices bottoming out first.
The market is repricing two things: first, the liquidity premium under macro tightening; second, the value chain restructuring brought by breakthroughs in the "memory wall" in the AI era. As the computing power arms race enters deep waters, storage is no longer a simple supporting role but a strategic bottleneck determining the winner of the next technological generation. Short-term pain and long-term certainty are fiercely clashing right now. $BTC $ETH
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 如果只看K线，最近的ETH其实有点让人纠结。 ETH在8月冲上$2,500之后出现明显回落，最近重新回到$2,400附近，$2,500已经连续成为短线最重要的压力区域。最新技术数据里，ETH的14日RSI仍然处于相对高位，说明前面的上涨动能还没有完全消失，但短线已经进入降温阶段。 正常情况下，价格涨这么多以后遇到阻力并不奇怪。 真正让我觉得有意思的是另一边： 资金并没有明显撤出ETH。 8月17日至28日，美国现货ETH ETF连续9个交易日净流入，累计流入约14.2亿美元，8月28日单日流入达到约2.26亿美元，是近10个月最强的一天。 所以现在出现了一个很有意思的结构： 价格在压力位横盘，机构资金却还在买。 这和单纯的“散户追高”完全不是一回事。 这也是我为什么没有因为ETH暂时站不上$2,500，就直接判断行情结束。 反而我更想看它下一次冲击$2,500的时候，会不会出现放量。 如果ETH能够重新站稳**$2,500**，下一步我会看**$2,600–2,650**，再往上就是前面市场留下的更大压力区。 但如果再次冲击$2,500失败，然后跌破**$2,400**，短线就要小心继It's the final circle, brothers, September 15th is a date that must be engraved in your mind.
Don't talk to me about CPI or a few basis points of rate cuts; those are just tactical fluctuations. The real strategic drama is whether the Senate will pass the CLARITY Act that day. 60 votes, one more is wasted, one less is in vain.
Note, this is not the final decision, but it is the critical hurdle that determines life or death. Once passed, the messy issues of "who regulates, how to regulate, and on what basis" in the US crypto market can hopefully be clarified; otherwise, it will continue to stumble blindly in the dark forest.
The significance of this goes far beyond one or two bullish candles on the K-line; it concerns whether the entire industry can take a step from being a "casino" to a "market." Rate cuts affect the water level, CLARITY determines the direction of the river.This week's two major core market themes: #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #BTC high-level volatility, enhanced linkage with gold
1️⃣ US-Iran geopolitical conflict
Reduced shipping through the strait, US airstrikes disturbing the market, escalating conflict will stimulate short-term safe-haven rallies in gold and BTC.
⚠️ Risk warning: Further escalation of tensions could trigger widespread panic, causing simultaneous sell-offs in stocks and crypto; rising oil prices will push inflation higher, limiting Fed rate cuts, posing medium- to long-term bearish risks to risk assets. Avoid chasing the geopolitical pulse rally.
2️⃣ Focus on US Nonfarm Payrolls + PMI, combined with the G20 meeting
🔹 Weak employment → rising rate cut expectations, favorable for gold and crypto; but oil price inflation may weaken the benefits, beware of a spike and subsequent pullback
🔹 Stronger-than-expected employment → delayed rate cuts, stronger USD, suppressing gold and crypto prices
At the G20, watch for Middle East reconciliation signals; risk-off sentiment will directly subside. $TRUMP It’s starting again, it’s starting again. This guy is really looking for a way out while setting fires.
Just moments ago, they were talking about reopening the Strait of Hormuz and arranging diplomatic personnel to return to the Middle East, and then the US military attacked Larak Island; Iran couldn’t stand it either and retaliated by striking US military bases, and another oil tanker near the strait was attacked.
They keep talking about negotiations at the table, but at the same time, they’re throwing matches next to the oil barrels. Who can understand this?
What’s even more absurd is the market situation. Both $CL and $BZ rose about 2.7%, with Brent crude oil climbing back near $90;
Logically, if risk aversion sentiment rises, gold and $BTC should also surge, but gold dropped to around 4425, and BTC was hammered down to about 76900 this morning.
The reason is quite realistic: the market is no longer trading on "war = risk aversion and price increase," but on whether rising oil prices will reignite inflation.
When crude oil rises, inflation expectations increase, giving Washington more confidence to stay tough; as long as the dollar and US Treasury yields keep rising, non-yielding gold takes the first hit, and BTC, which relies on liquidity, can’t escape either.
From now on, don’t just focus on who’s making harsh statements again. What really determines the market is whether oil tankers can still pass normally, whether insurance premiums have skyrocketed, and whether Iran’s actual exports have declined.
If it’s just a couple of shots fired, oil prices might give back the risk premium; but if the strait is truly blocked, crude oil becomes the main player, and BTC and gold will have to continue enduring the high interest rate pressure.
Shouting for negotiations on one hand, while continuing to fire on the other; the market calls for risk aversion on one hand, while selling gold for cash on the other. This market situation really plays people.
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温